Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-18 | Blue Jays -110 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays - I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a short road favorite against the Rangers on Friday. This one comes down to the starting pitching matchup for me and I give a big edge here to Toronto in that department. The Blue Jays will send out Marco Estrada, who will look to build on a strong first outing, where he allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings against a potent Yankees offense. Texas counters with Matt Moore, who was rocked for 4 runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work at home against the Astros in his first start of 2018. Moore has really struggled in nigh games, as his teams' are a mere 9-29 when he toes the rubber in a night game over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Jays on the other hand are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a left-handed starter and 7-1 in Estrada's last 8 starts vs the AL West. Take Toronto! |
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04-06-18 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's MLB action that has the Blue Jays visiting the Rangers. Toronto comes in averaging 5.1 runs/game, despite hitting a mere .237 as a team in their first 7 games. While Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game, they have been swinging the bats much better of late. The Rangers have scored 12 runs on 24 hits in their last 3 games after scoring just runs in their first 5. While I like Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada, he like a lot of starters, is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home. So while Estrada allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings of his first start at home, look for a little bit more of a struggle on the road against the Rangers. The good news is he should get plenty of run support, as Toronto's offense should be able to put up a big number here against Texas starter Matt Moore, who lasted just 4 innings after giving up 4 runs on 7 hits in a 3-9 loss to the Astros. Take the OVER! |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Braves/Rockies UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's MLB action that has the Rockies hosting the Braves. Typically you expect high-scoring games at hitter-friendly Coors Field, but I think this is one of the rare instances that we see more of a pitcher's duel. That's because the conditions for this game will negate the ball flying out of the park. The temp is expected to be in the mid 30's with wind blowing in at close to 15 mph from right field. We also have a couple of capable starters on the mound in this one. Colorado will send out German Marquez, who threw 5 shutout innings in his first start at Arizona. Atlanta will counter with Brandon McCarthy, who allowed just 2 runs in 5 1/3 in his first start at home against the Phillies. I'm not saying these two will completely shutdown the opposing offenses, but we should see strong enough outings to keep this well below the big total set here. Take the UNDER! |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on DBacks/Cards UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's MLB action that has the Cardinals hosting the Diamondbacks. Arizona has got off to an impressive 5-1 start behind an offense that is averaging 5.8 runs/game. While this should be one of the better offenses in the NL, the Diamondbacks definitely benefited from playing all of their games to this point at home at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Now they go to one of the more pitcher-friendly parks at Busch Stadium. One of the reasons I think we are getting such a favorable number here for the total is the struggles of Arizona starter Robbie Ray in his first start. While it's definitely concerning, Ray would be hard pressed to pitch as poorly as he did in his first outing. I look for a much better showing here and I'm also expecting a decent outing here from Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright to keep this well below the number posted by the books. Take the UNDER! |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals - I love the value here with St Louis as a short home favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals got off to a slow start, losing their first two games, but a lot of that had to do with those two coming against two of the NL's best starters in Syndergaard and deGrom. Since then they have won 3 of 4, including a 6-0 win yesterday against division rival Milwaukee. Both of St Louis' first two series were on the road, so there's going to be some added excitement and motivation here in the home opener. It's the exact opposite for Arizona, who got to play their first two series at home and now have to go on the road for the first time. This is also a big letdown spot for the Diamondbacks, who are fresh off a sweep against division rival Los Angeles. I also like the pitching matchup here, as the Cardinals send out veteran Adam Wainwright, who I believe will be much better than what we saw last year. Arizona counters with Robbie Ray, who was one of last year's breakout starters. However, Ray wasn't sharp at all in his first outing, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks in 5 innings at home against the Rockies. Take St Louis! |
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04-05-18 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Rockies/Padres UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's MLB action that has the Padres hosting the Rockies. Today's pitching matchup features Tyler Anderson of Colorado against Joey Lucchesi of San Diego. Neither pitched well in their first start, but I think both are poised to pitch much better in their second outing. Anderson had the difficult task of making his first start at Arizona against a loaded Dbacks lineup and simply didn't have his best stuff. Lucchesi gave up just 3 runs in 4 2/3 innings. He really got in trouble early, giving up 2 runs in the first, which wasn't a big surprise given it was his first ever big league start. He really settled in nicely after the opening frame and I look for a better start in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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04-04-18 | Mariners v. Giants -117 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants - I love the value here with San Francisco as a small home favorite against the Mariners. The Giants will be extremely motivated here to get back in the win column after dropping their last 3 and they have just the guy on the mound to get the job done. San Francisco will send out veteran Johnny Cueto, who is looks poised for a big bounce back season after an injury-plagued 2017 campaign. Cueto was sensational in his first start of the season against the Dodgers. Cueto allowed just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings and took a perfect game into the 7th. While Seattle's Felix Hernandez also had a strong first start, he lasted just 5 1/3 innings and could see him struggling here. Mariners won the series opener 6-4 on Tuesday and that's worth noting as the Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 home games off a loss by 2 runs or less. Take San Francisco! |
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04-04-18 | Twins v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Pirates/Twins UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's MLB action that has the Pirates hosting the Twins. I look for both offenses to struggle to get anything going in this one. Minnesota will send out Jake Odorizzi, who came out firing, allowing just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings at Baltimore on Opening Day. Pittsburgh will counter with Ivan Nova, who allowed just 2 runs in 5 innings at Detroit in his first start. Key here with Nova is how dominant he was at home last year with the Pirates. He went 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts at PNC Park. UNDER is 43-19-2 in the Pirates last 64 games vs a right-handed starter and 11-2 in Nova's last 13 starts at home. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Twins last 9 vs a right-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |
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04-04-18 | Orioles +180 v. Astros | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Orioles + I like the value here with the Orioles as a huge road dog against the Astros on Wednesday. The fact that Baltimore has lost 4 straight, while Houston has won 4 straight is definitely playing into the value here with the Orioles. The Astros will have one of their top starters in Dallas Keuchel on the mound, but I actually like Baltimore's Dylan Bundy in this one. Bundy was sharp in his first start, allowing just 5 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings of a 3-2 win over the Twins. Keuchel wasn't horrible in his first start, but he also wasn't at his best, giving up 3 runs on 7 hits with just 4 strikeouts in 6 innings against the Rangers. Adding to this is a great system backing a play on the Orioles. AL underdogs that are allowing 5.4 or more runs/game are a rock solid 30-15 (67%) against the money line in the month of April over the last 5 seasons. Take Baltimore! |
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04-03-18 | Red Sox v. Marlins +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Run Line MASSACRE on Marlins +1.5 + I like the value here with Miami on the run line against the Red Sox on Tuesday. This is simply too good a price to pass up on with the Marlins, who just need to keep this within a run to cash a winning ticket. Miami is going to end up being one of the worst teams in the league. However, there is some value backing this team early on, as they are playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season. While the Marlins lost the series opener against the Red Sox yesterday, they were able to split their 4-game series with the Cubs to start out the year. Miami will send out Jose Urena, who had his struggles on Opening Day against the Cubs, giving up 5 runs on 6 hits with 4 walks and just 2 strikeouts in 4 innings. That was simply a poor outing for Urena, who has the stuff to be a top level starter. Keep in mind he went 14-7 with a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 appearances (28 starts) in 2017. The Marlins are 14-7 SU in their last 21 after a loss the past two seasons. Take Miami! |
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04-03-18 | Rays +145 v. Yankees | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Rays + I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a decently priced road dog against the Yankees on Tuesday. This is simply a great price to back the Rays with their ace, Chris Archer, on the mound. Archer didn't have his best stuff in his first start, but did finish with six strikeouts and just one walk in 6 innings of a no decision against the Red Sox. Facing off against New York always seems to bring the best out of Archer, as he's got a 2.96 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Yankees. Tampa Bay ended up defeating the Red Sox and Chris Sale on Opening Day, but followed that up with 3 straight losses. This has been an ideal bounce back spot for the Rays, as they are 14-5 in their last 19 off 3 straight division losses. Take Tampa Bay! |
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04-02-18 | Indians v. Angels +118 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational MONEY LINE SMASH on Angels + I like the value here with the Angeles as a decently priced home dog against the Indians on Monday. Los Angeles opened the season by going on the road and taking 3 of 4 from the A's, winning the final 3 games of the series after losing the opener 5-6. The offense put 22 runs on 44 hits. In comparison the Indians offense managed just 11 runs on 18 hits in their 3-game series at Seattle. There's no denying that Cleveland is one of the elite teams in the AL, but I believe it has them overvalued to start to the season, especially on the road. This is an Angels team that has the talent to take that next step and I'll gladly ride them here with how they are swinging the bats. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-02-18 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Astros OVER 9 I love the value here with the OVER in Monday's AL matchup that has the Astros hosting the Orioles. This will be Houston's home opener and that makes this an extra special night for the defending champs, as they will get their 2017 World Series rings. I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in this one. Houston's offense struggled in their first two games against the Rangers, scoring just 5 runs on 11 hits, but exploded in the final two games with 17 runs on 27 hits. It's not out of the question that the Astros could eclipse this total on their own, as they will be facing the Orioles Chris Tillman, who was a miserable 1-7 with a 8.12 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in 19 starts last season. That included an awful 13.28 ERA and 2.697 WHIP on the road. Houston's starting rotation has been lights out to start and they will send out Charlie Morton for this one. Morton is coming off a strong 2017 season, but I think he struggles here against an Orioles lineup that is poised to breakout after scoring just 5 runs while getting swept at home by the Twins to open the season. Take the OVER! |
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04-01-18 | Cardinals v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cards/Mets OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's MLB action that has the Mets hosting the Cardinals. While we have a couple of decent starters on the mound, these are two teams that can put up runs. St Louis has scored just 6 runs over the first 2 games, but that's to be expected going up against Syndergaard and deGrom. Now they face Steven Matz, who had a 6.08 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 13 starts a season ago. Matz was especially bad at home, where he was 0-4 with a 10.39 ERA and 2.031 WHIP in 5 starts. The Cardinals will send out Luke Weaver, who is a promising young starter, but he will be up against a red-hot New York offense that has scored 15 runs on 23 hits over the first 2 games. The Mets could have put up even more, as they have left double-digit men on base in each game. I like New York's chances of keeping it going in this one and pushing this game over the short total. Take the OVER! |
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03-31-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +125 | 3-5 | Win | 125 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays + I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees. New York has won the first two games of the series behind two really strong outings from starters Severino and Tanaka. While C.C. Sabathia got his career back on track in 2017, going 15-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 starts, he's going to be 38 in July and could fall apart at a moments notice. Toronto will counter here with Marco Estrada, who I think is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Estrada posted a 4.98 ERA in 33 starts in 2017. Prior to that he had posted a 3.48 ERA in 2016 and 3.13 ERA in 2015. One reason to like Estrada and the Blue Jays in this one, is the success that Estrada has had in his career against the Yankees. He's 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 starts (Blue Jays are 10-4 in those 14 starts). This is also a spot in which it's been very profitable to back the Blue Jays, as they are 20-8 in their last 28 after losing the first two games of a series. They also own a 20-9 record in the 29 starts Estrada has made in Game 3 of a series. Take Toronto! |
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03-31-18 | Cardinals +125 v. Mets | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Cardinals + I like the value here with St. Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Mets on Saturday. New York won the opener 9-4. The Cardinals got a bad start from their ace Carlos Martinez, as he lasted just 4 1/3 and walked 6. Most will just look to back the Mets here with deGrom on the mound, but I have my concerns with him early on after dealing with a back injury in spring training. It's also not like the Cardinals aren't sending out a capable starter, as they give the rock to Michael Wacha. He made one start against the Mets in 2017 and it was sensational, as he allowed just 3 hits in a complete game shutout. He improved to 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his career against New York. Take St Louis! |
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03-30-18 | Astros v. Rangers +180 | 1-5 | Win | 180 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rangers + I like the value here with Texas as massive home dog against the Astros on Friday. There's no question that Houston is one of the most talented teams in the league, but they are way overvalued to start the year after winning the World Series last season. While the Rangers aren't expected to be a serious contender in the AL, they aren't as bad as the line here would suggest. The Cubs are almost an identical priced road favorite as the Astros are, yet Chicago is taking on by far the worst team in baseball in the Marlins. Unlike Miami, Texas has an above-average lineup that can put up runs and are certainly capable of getting to Houston starter Dallas Keuchel. The problem with Texas is their starting pitching and today's starter, Doug Fister, isn't anything to write home about. However, Fister is a crafty veteran that knows how to keep his team in the game. I look for him to pitch well here and for the Rangers to get their revenge from yesterday's loss. Take Texas! |
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03-30-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +144 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto + I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees on Friday. Toronto lost the opener on Thursday 1-6. The Blue Jays offense couldn't get anything going against Severino and ended up totaling just 2 hits on the game. Look for a much more productive day at the plate in Game 2 for Toronto, as this time they will be going up against Masahiro Tanaka, who went 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA in 4 spring starts. Tanaka was also not nearly as good on the road as he was at home in 2017. He had a 4.36 ERA overall with a 6.25 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 16 road starts. The Yankees offense is loaded, but they got 2 homers from Stanton yesterday and only managed 6 runs. I look for some regression here for the Bronx Bombers against Aaron Sanchez, who showed well this spring and looked a lot more like the guy who led the AL in ERA in 2016. Sanchez also has a strong history against the Yankees, posting a 2.40 ERA in 13 outings against them. Take Toronto! |
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03-29-18 | Brewers -109 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Opening Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Brewers I love the value here with Milwaukee as a short road favorite against the Padres on Opening Day. The Brewers were one of the big surprises of last year, as they gave the Cubs all they nearly dethroned the Cubs in the NL Central. Milwaukee got even better in the offseason, especially on offense, where they added the likes of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. This should be an explosive offense and I just don't think they are getting near enough respect here against a mediocre Padres team. Not only do the Brewers have the more potent lineup, but they should have the edge on the mound in this one. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who quietly had a great 2017 season. Anderson went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 25 starts. Those are Cy Young worthy numbers, yet no one talks about him being one of the top NL starters. San Diego counters with Clayton Richard, who was 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 32 starts. Richard is also just 3-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 9 career starts against the Brewers. Take Milwaukee! |
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03-02-18 | Dodgers v. White Sox +125 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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02-28-18 | Dodgers v. Padres +110 | 5-10 | Win | 110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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11-01-17 | Astros +155 v. Dodgers | 5-1 | Win | 155 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 NO BRAINER on Houston + Last year we saw the Cubs win Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and I think we see Houston pull off the same feat tonight in Los Angeles. That day off between Game 5 and Game 6 really helped the Dodgers bullpen, but just about all of their top guns out of the pen pitched, including a 6 out save by closer Kenley Jansen. The big concern here is they have to send out Yu Darvish for the start in Game 7 and many will remember how poorly he threw in Game 3, giving up 4 runs before being pulled with 2 outs in the 2nd inning. I know Kershaw is available out of the pen and will likely pitch, but I'm not so sure that's a good thing after his struggles in Game 5. I just think this game is going to come down to which offense can produce and I trust the Astros young hitters a lot more, especially after a bad showing like they had in Game 6. Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 road games after scoring 1 run or less, as they have come back with just over 5 runs/game in this spot. Take Houston! |
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -112 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 BEST BET on Dodgers - I think we are getting great value here with Los Angeles laying a short number at home, as I'm confident they send this to a Game 7. The Dodgers will send out Rich Hill against Justin Verlander. Hill allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 4 innings of Game 2. I expect another strong outing from Hill, who has a 2.77 ERA in his 3 postseason starts. I also think we see Hill give the Dodgers a few more innings here than normal in this spot. Houston will send out Verlander, who pitched well against Hill in Game 2, but made a couple mistakes that resulted in 3 runs on 2 homers. Note that was his first postseason start on the road this postseason and he had a 4.18 ERA on the road this season (3.19 ERA overall). He’s came out and said he doesn’t like the baseballs they are using for the World Series and I think he struggles enough here for the Dodgers to secure the win at home. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 after a loss and 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +118 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers + I'm firing back with the Dodgers to even up the series in Game 4 after losing Game 3 last night. LA just couldn't recover from a bad start by Darvish, who failed to complete 2 innings. The bullpen did their part allowing just 1 run (unearned) over the final 7 1/3 innings. They should get a much better performance from today's starter Alex Wood, who is going to be fresh having made just one postseason start to this point. Wood was sensational on the road this season, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts. Houston will counter here with Charlie Morton, who has just a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which have come in the postseason. I think we see the Dodgers offense come to life in this one, much like Houston's offense did in Game 3. Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 road starts. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games. Take the DODGERS! |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +120 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Dodgers/Astros 'Game 3' World Series HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers + I like the value here with Los Angeles in Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers were 3 outs from having a 2-0 lead, but the usually reliable bullpen had an off night. I still think LA is the better team and will bounce back with a win to take control of the series. It all comes down to the pitching matchup, which I feel favors the Dodgers quite a bit. LA will send out Yu Darvish, who has been lights out in the postseason, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with only 1 walk and 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings (2 starts). Both outings came on the road, so no concern with him not being able to handle the atmosphere away from home. Houston counters with Lance McCullers and he too has made 2 starts in the playoffs. He's giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 9 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. While McCullers pitched well in his ALCS start against the Yankees, he was rocked in the ALDS by the Red Sox. The most concerning thing is how the Astros struggle to win when he is on the mound. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of his last 9 starts overall. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-25-17 | Astros +105 v. Dodgers | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers 'Game 2' World Series ANNIHILATOR on Astros + I'm taking Houston in Game 2 of the World Series on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't get the offense going in Game 1 against Kershaw, which is to be expected. Now the roles will be reversed, as Houston sends out their ace and postseason star in Justin Verlander. Since Verlander arrived in Houston he's taken his game to a whole different level and it's carried over into the postseason. He's made 3 starts and 1 appearance out of the pen in the playoffs this year and has posted a 1.46 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The most important stat is that the Astros have won every game he's pitched and I don't see that trend ending tonight. Keep in mind Verlander got a shot at these Dodgers during the regular season this year and was able to limit them to just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. Hill has been good for LA, but this Houston offense is loaded and should be able to push across a few runs to secure the win. Take Houston! |
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10-24-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers WS Game 1 BEST BET on Astros +1.5 I like the value here with Houston on the +1.5 run line for Game 1 of the World Series. We got two of the games best starters on the mound in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel and all signs point to a closely contested matchup to get the series started. That puts the value here with Houston, who we need to either win or lose by 1 or less. I think there's a decent chance the Astros pull out the victory. As good as Kershaw has been, he's got a 3.64 ERA in his 3 postseason starts this year and has allowed 6 home runs in the playoffs so far. With the ball figuring to carry a little better with the heat wave in LA, Houston could blow this open early. Take the Astros +1.5! |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -137 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Astros Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Houston - It's hard to go against a team that's won 3 straight, but I just see too much value here in the Astros at home with Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been lights out down the stretch and was incredible in Game 2 against these Yankees, giving up just 1 run with 13 K's, while going the distance. Yankees send out Luis Severino, who I'm not convinced can shoulder the load of this game. All I can recall is that Wild Card start against the Twins, where he gave up 3 runs while recording just 1 out in the Top of the 1st before getting pulled. He also wasn't great in Game 2 opposite of Verlander, lasting just 4 innings without a single strikeout. I think Houston's offense comes to life here and they send this to a Game 7. Take Houston! |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Astros/Yankees Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees +1.5 - Much like they did in the ALDS the Yankees have rallied from an 0-2 deficit to tie up the series 2-2 with Houston. The most recent win coming in dramatic fashion, as New York turned a 0-4 deficit into a 6-4 win by scoring 6 runs in the 7th and 8th. I like the Yankees to keep the momentum going, but I'm going to play the +1.5 run line for some added insurance. All signs point to Game 5 being a low-scoring game, which only increases the likelihood of this one being decided by just 1 run. Houston sends out ace Dallas Keuchel, while the Yankees counter with the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.90 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts, with a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his 2 playoff appearances. Tanaka was also 10-5 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. Houston is just 4-14 against the run line in road games after a contest where the bullpen allowed 5 or more earned runs and 5-18 in Keuchel's last 23 starts after a loss. Take New York +1.5! |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -113 | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Cubs - I like the value here with Chicago to take care business at home and get back into this series after losing each of the first two in LA. The Cubs aren't a team to panic and seem to relish having their backs against the wall. The offense struggled in Los Angeles, but will return home, where they averaged 5.3 runs/game on the season. Chicago will give the rock to Kyle Hendricks, who I expect to dominate this Dodgers, much like he has in the past. Hendricks has a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against LA. He faced them twice in last year's NLCS and limited the Dodgers to just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 inning of work. LA's bullpen has been great, but the Dodgers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen didn't allow a run. Dodgers are just 6-13 in their last 19 playoff road games and 1-10 in their last 11 road games in the NLCS. Cubs are 31-12 in their last 43 off a loss and 20-8 in Hendricks last 28 starts after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take Chicago! |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB Postseason TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER I absolutely love the UNDER in tonight's NLCS Game 3 between the Cubs and Dodgers. Two outstanding pitchers will face off, as Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, while Los Angeles gives the rock to Yu Darvish. Hendricks is your modern day Greg Maddux, who relies on exceptional location and movement to attack hitters. He comes in with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and most importantly has owned the Dodgers. He's got a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Two of those coming in last year's NLCS, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. Darvis had his struggles early with LA, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.519 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 24-6-1 in Hendricks's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 playoff home games and 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-17-17 | Astros v. Yankees -117 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Yankees - No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS |
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 165 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Yankees Game 3 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees -1.5 I confident the Yankees will walk away with a win in Game 3 that I'll take the gamble here and play the run line and call for them to win by at least 2 to bring home a bigger profit. New York has been in this spot before, as they were down 0-2 to the Indians before taking the final three to advance to the ALCS. While they have lost the first two in this series, both could have win the other way, as they fell 2-1 in each contest. A return home should be just what the Yankees need to get back in the series, plus they have the red-hot C.C. Sabathia on the mound in this one. Sabathia doesn't have the stamina to go deep in games, but he can you a solid 5 to 6 innings and let that elite NY bullpen do the rest. Key here is the Yankees offense should provide some help, as Houston sends out Charlie Morton, which is quite a big drop off from the Astros first two starters in the series in Keuchel and Verlander. Teams that have lost 2 straight by exactly 1 run against an opponent that has scored and allowed 3 or less in their last game are 58-30 against the run line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% long-term system in favor of the Yankees not only winning, but winning by at least 2. Take New York! |
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10-13-17 | Yankees +163 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Astros Game 1 BEST BEST on Yankees + I think the long layoff for Houston hurts them against a Yankees team that couldn't be playing with more confidence after taking 3 straight to overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS agains the Indians. I know Keuchel has owned the Yankees, but he hasn't been going deep in games. Only went 5 2/3 in his only start against Boston and had allowed just 1 run and 3 hits. His control has also been off, as he walked 3 Red Sox hitters. I think New York can sneak a couple runs against him. The key here is Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka and can he keep the Astros lineup in check. I think the can. He's been throwing well of late and was sensational in the pivotal Game 3 against Cleveland, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. I also think the longer than normal rest between games is also a disadvantage for the hitters. Add in the value we are getting with these odds and I think it's a no brainer what side you should be playing in Game 1. Take New York! |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Indians MLB Total DOMINATOR on Yankees UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total for Game 5 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Indians. Not only do we have a great starting pitching matchup with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Corey Kluber, but conditions for this contest will favor both of these starters. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s with winds up to 15 mph blowing straight in from right field. Sabathia started Game 2 in Cleveland and pitched well enough to win, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's now 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts and owns a strong 2.65 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kluber had a clunker in Game 2 opposing Sabathia, giving up 6 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but that only makes me like his chances of throwing well tonight that much more. Kluber is still 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 17 home starts. UNDER is 15-5-1 in Sabathia's last 21 starts against a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in Klubers last 7 home starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts on 4 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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10-06-17 | Cubs +148 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 148 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* MLB Division Series 'HEAVY HITTER' on Cubs + I like the value here with the Cubs in Game 1 as a big road dog against the Nationals. The Cubs really turned it on in the 2nd half to take control of the NL Central. They really turned it on down the stretch, going 15-4 in their last 19 games. I like teams that are riding momentum going into the postseason and this stage won't be too much for the defending champs to handle. I also think the Nationals aren't the same caliber a team with Bryce Harper still working his way back from injury. He played in the final 6 games after missing more than two months and had just 3 hits in 18 at bats (no extra base hits and 6 strikeouts). Washington has gone just 1-5 in their last 6 playoff home games, while the Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games and 7-3 in Hendricks last 10 starts when he's throwing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Chicago! |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Twins OVER No Analysis on late releases |
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09-27-17 | Braves v. Mets +104 | 1-7 | Win | 104 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Mets + I like the value here with New York in basically a pick'em at home against division rival Atlanta. The Mets showed they aren't going to just lay down with nothing to play for, as they rallied from a 3 run deficit to knock off the Braves 4-3 on Tuesday and I look for them to build on that momentum with another win here. New York will send out Robert Gsellman, who was sensational two starts ago in Atlanta, limiting the Braves to 0 earned runs (1 unearned) on just 3 hits over 7 innings of a 5-1 win. That was Gsellman's second straight dominant outing, as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Braves back in early June. We also find a strong system in playing favoring a fade of Atlanta. Road teams off a division loss by 1-run are just 16-36 over the last 5 seasons in games involving two bad teams that have won between 38% and 46% of their games. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mets. Take New York! |
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09-26-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -111 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
3* Cubs/Cardinals MLB 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cardinals - I like the value here with St Louis as a short home division favorite against the Cubs on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener yesterday in blowout fashion and that's not going to sit well with the Cardinals. The key here is with that win the Cubs have all but won the NL Central, as they need just 1 more win or Brewers loss to secure the top spot in the division. I look for the Cubs to have a tough time here against the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez, who has been at his best at home this season and that includes two home starts against the Cubs. Martinez owns a 3.18 ER and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts and allowed just 3 runs over 14 innings in his two home outings against the Cubs. Even with yesterday's loss the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record and are 16-6 in their last 22 during Game 2 of a series. They are also 11-4 in Martinez's last 15 starts after giving up 5+ runs in their last game. Take St Louis! |
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09-25-17 | Royals v. Yankees -165 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Yankees - New York needs a win here to clinch home field for the Wild Card game and I expect them to do just that against the struggling Royals who are all but out of the playoff picture. Tough spot here for KC, as this is a make-up game, which has them taking a quick flight from Chicago, where they concluded a series yesterday, to New York for an early game. I just don't see the Royals being on of their game here. I also like the pitching matchup for the Yankees. New York sends out C.C. Sabathia, who is coming off a strong showing at home last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings of work. Sabathia also has a strong track record against the Royals with a 3.11 ERA in his career. He's faced them once this season and allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings. KC counters with Jake Junis, who has a not so great 4.70 ERA in 8 road starts. While Junis pitched well in his last outing, he's just 1-4 against the money line following a Quality Start. KC is also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 series openers and 3-9 in their last 12 road games games against a team with a winning record! Take New York! |
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09-23-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational 'HEAVY HITTER' on Brewers + I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. The Brewers have lost the first two in this huge 4-game series in extra innings and simply can't afford to lose here. While it's now a long-shot they catch Chicago for the NL Central title, they are now 2-back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot. Milwaukee will send out Brent Suter, who is coming off a strong start at Pittsburgh, where he tossed 5 shutout innings. He's now in his 4th start back from the DL and will have that pitch count up today to where he can be even more effective. Good spot to fade the Cubs, who are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games off 2 straight road wins over a division rival. It's also a good situation to fade Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is a mere 3-8 in his last 11 day starts. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-22-17 | Red Sox -130 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'DESTROYER' on Red Sox - I like the value here with Boston as a short road favorite against the Reds. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot Wednesday, but still have a lot of work to do with a mere 3-game lead against the Yankees for the AL East title. This is a big time series for Boston and I at least expect them to secure a win in the opener. Red Sox come in playing some of their best baseball, as they are 11-3 over their last and 6-1 in their last 7. They send out Rick Porcello, who has had one of the least memorable seasons for a reigning Cy Young winner. Porcello is a miserable 10-17 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts. However, he's been much better in the 2nd half, as he owns a 3.76 ERA in his last 14 starts, giving up 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 outings. Cincinnati owns the worst interleague record of any club and are just 5-12 against the AL this season. The Reds are just 4-12 in their last 16 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 10-1 in Porcello's last 11 interleague starts, 6-1 in their last 7 against at team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 series openers. Take Boston! |
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09-21-17 | Twins v. Tigers +112 | 12-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Twins/Tigers AL Central 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Tigers + I like the value here with Detroit as a division home dog against the Twins on Thursday. Minnesota might hold the final Wild Card spot, but they aren't playing like a playoff team down the stretch. The Twins come in having lost 7 of 11 and were just swept in a 3-game series against the Yankees. Detroit has struggled of late, but should find plenty of motivation at home, knowing they can play spoiler and potentially keep Minnesota out of the playoffs. Tigers will send out Jordan Zimmermann, who has a miserable 2017, but I like him to pitch well here, as he's got an extended rest to get rid of the neck pain that was causing him problems. Either way, he's just as good as Minnesota's Adalberto Mejia, who has a 4.62 ERA in 19 starts and an awful 9.00 ERA and 2.300 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Twins are just 1-8 in Mejia's last 9 starts against a team with a losing record and have lost these games by 3.1 runs/game. Minnesota has also dropped 5 straight on the road. Take Detroit! |
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09-20-17 | Indians v. Angels +103 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Angels + I'm going to roll with Los Angeles at home against the Indians on Wednesday. Cleveland will send out Josh Tomlin, who has a not so great 4.68 ERA in 10 road starts and has really struggled to pitch deep in games, failing to complete 6 innings in each of his last 4 starts. I look for the Angels to do some damage early and get just enough out of starter Ricky Nolasco to secure the win. Nolasco hasn't had a good season, but does come in off a strong outing against the Astros at home, holding Houston to just 2 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings of work. A similar performance would certainly do the trick here. Yesterday LA stranded just 3 runners in their loss to Cleveland in the series opener. That's a positive for today's game, as they are an impressive 22-8 over the last 3 seasons after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners. Angels are also a strong 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5+ runs in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 off a loss. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-20-17 | Cubs v. Rays +110 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* MLB Money Line 'VEGAS INSIDER' Top Play on Rays + I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a home dog against the Cubs on Wednesday. While Chicago was able to win the series opener last night, they are not a great road team and I look for them to struggle to come out on top tonight. The Cubs will send out Jon Lester, who is having a down year in 2017. Lester owns a 4.30 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 29 starts. A far cry from his 2.44 ERA and 1.02 WHIP he posted last season in 32 outings. Lester has a 4.19 ERA in 32 career starts against Tampa, which includes an outing at home earlier this season, in which he allowed the Rays to pile on 6 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. As for Tampa Bay's starter, Blake Snell, he was sensational against the Cubs earlier this season, allowing just 4 hits over 5 shutout innings of work. Snell has a way of stepping up his game against the top team, as he's 6-1 against the ML in his last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay! |
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09-19-17 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Brewers/Pirates NL Central Game of the Week on Pirates + I like the value here with the Pirates as a home division dog against the Brewers on Tuesday. Pittsburgh may be out of the playoff picture, but they aren't just going to lie down for Milwaukee, who they know desperately need to win this game. I look for the Pirates to get their revenge from yesterday's series opening loss. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who has not been nearly as effective on the road as he has at home. Anderson has a sensational 2.88 ERA overall in 22 starts, but a mere 3.43 ERA in 12 road starts. I also think he could struggle here, as his last start came on just 3 days rest and he likely pays for that here. Pittsburgh sends out Trevor Williams, who has really come on strong in the 2nd half the season. Williams has a 3.24 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 9 outings. It's also worth noting that he pitched well against Milwaukee earlier this season, allowing jut 3 runs with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. Take Pittsburgh! |
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09-19-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles -113 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Baltimore - I like the value here with the Orioles as a short home favorite against the Red Sox on Tuesday. While Baltimore's playoff hopes are slim to none at this point, they aren't just going to lie down on their home field against a division rival, especially given how important this game is to Boston. The Orioles are an impressive 13-games over .500 at home and I like their chances here behind starter Kevin Gauman, who has gone 8-3 since the end of June and comes in with a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz, who has an impressive 16-5 record, but owns an ugly 4.82 ERA in 4 career starts against the Orioles. Solid system in play backing the Orioles in this one. Home underdogs who are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 runs/game and starting a pitcher who average 5+ strikeouts/start are 41-22 (65%) against the money line vs AL teams with a starter that has an ERA of 4.20 or less. Take Baltimore! |
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09-18-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres +140 | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego as a big home division dog against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is pretty much locked into the top Wild Card spot, as they are 9.5-games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and have a 5-game lead over the Rockies for that top Wild Card spot. Their focus down the stretch is to get as healthy as possible. They come in off a 2-7 loss to the Giants and I look for them come out a bit flat here against a bad Padres team. As for San Diego, they were able to snap a 5-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over the Rockies yesterday and will be excited to play here at home after a 8-game road trip. They send out Luis Perdomo, who has pitched well of late with a 3.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Arizona counters with Pat Corbin, who is just 5-8 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 14 road starts and a 5.51 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take San Diego! |
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09-16-17 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 10 | 3-9 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Orioles/Yankees UNDER I think the books have set the total way too high for Saturday's AL East clash between the Yankees and Orioles. New York will send out Jordan Montgomery, who has a strong 3.43 ERA in 4 career starts against Baltimore. The Orioles counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who has had similar success against New York with a 3.50 ERA in 8 starts. UNDER is a 31-14 in the Orioles last 45 games in the 2nd half of the season against a quality opponent that has a winning percentage of 54% to 62%. UNDER is also 19-5-2 in Baltimore's last 26 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |
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09-15-17 | Padres +156 v. Rockies | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego as a big road dog against the Rockies on Friday. I believe the Padres are catching Colorado at the right time, as the Rockies just finished up a 8-game road trip against the top two teams in the division in the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. They won the first 6 of that road trip, but things took a drastic turn for the worse, as they were outscored 15-2 in the final two games against Arizona. In their entire 4-game series with the Dbacks they totaled just 26 hits (6.5/game). That's good news for San Diego starter Clayton Richard, as you don't want to face this Rockies team at home when they are swinging the bat well. Richard has pitched effectively in each of his last 2 starts, allowing just 3 runs in 12 innings against two potential playoff teams in the Dodgers and Cardinals. He's got a 2.96 ERA in his last 7 starts. It's also worth noting that Colorado has been struggling at home. The Rockies are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games. They were also shutout yesterday and are just 5-12 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take San Diego! |
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09-14-17 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
4* MLB Afternoon Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on A's/Red Sox OVER I'm expecting more than enough offense to finish well over the total in Thursday's afternoon matchup that has the Red Sox hosting the A's. It's going to be hard for either starter to put up great numbers in this one, as the wind is expected to be blowing out at close to 15 mph. Both of these offenses come into this one swinging the ball well. Oakland is averaging 7.4 runs and hitting .287 as a team with a .376 OBP. Boston isn't quite on that level, but aren't to far behind. The Red Sox are averaging 6.0 runs/game and hitting .282 as a team over their last 7. On top of that, Boston's starter Drew Pomeranz, has struggled some of late with a 4.67 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 outings. As for A's starter Daniel Gossett, he's got a 517 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 9 road starts. Take the OVER! |
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09-13-17 | Padres +135 v. Twins | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational 'HEAVY HITTER' on Padres + Most are going to look to take Minnesota after their record-setting performance on Tuesday, which saw them homer in each of the first 7 innings in a 16-0 win. I'm going the other direction, as that's the kind of loss that will light a fire under any team, even a bad one like the Padres. At the same time, the Twins are going to have a tough time not showing up to the park with a big head in the series finale. The other big key here is the fact that the Padres are sending out talented youngster Dinelson Lamet, who has a 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, which he's given up just 4 runs in 18 innings. He pitched at least 6 innings in all 3 starts, giving up 2 or fewer runs. He's now allowed 3 or fewer run in 9 consecutive starts. Twins are countering with Ervin Santana, who is just 6-5 with a 4.14 ERA in 15 home starts and comes in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that the Padres have responded well in this spot. They are 10-2 on the season when revenging a shutout loss to an opponent. Take San Diego! |
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09-13-17 | Yankees v. Rays -112 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
5* AL Money Line 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Rays - I really like the value here with Tampa Bay as a short favorite against division rival New York with their ace Chris Archer on the mound. The Rays rebounded after losing the series opener with a 2-1 win on Tuesday. Tampa pitching has owned the Yankees, holding them to a mere 7 hits in the first two games of the series. Now it's Archer's turn to get in on the action and with a 2.82 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 16 career starts against New York, there's every reason to expect him to dominate here. As for the Yankees they will send out Jaime Garcia, who has a not so great 4.52 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in 3 road starts. He's also had some control problems, walking 9 batters over his last 3 starts, which has led to an ugly 1.745 WHIP during that stretch. I'll take my chances here on the Rays offense being able to score enough to get the win. Rays are 16-5 in Archer's last 21 starts when he's throwing on 4 days of rest and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take Tampa Bay! |
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09-12-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -115 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Mariners/Rangers MLB 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Rangers - I like the value here with Texas as a short home favorite against AL West rival Seattle. The Rangers took the series opener 5-3 last night and Seattle has now dropped 5 straight away from home. Texas is in a prime spot to build on that win, as they have the advantage on the mound in this one with Miguel Gonzalez facing off against Marco Gonzales. Gonzalez for Seattle has a 3.77 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 9 home starts, while Gonzales has an atrocious 8.25 ERA and 1.959 WHIP in 6 starts. Gonzales is only averaging a mere 4 innings per start. Not only does he lack control (5 walks last two starts), but he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters. He's got just 15 K's in 24 innings of work. Look for a red-hot Texas offense that is averaging 6.9 runs and hitting .273 as a team to put up a big number here and coast to a victory. Take Texas! |
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09-11-17 | Orioles +104 v. Blue Jays | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'ANNIHILATOR' on Orioles + I like the value here with Baltimore in Monday's series opener against the Blue Jays. The Orioles are going to be locked in after getting swept in Cleveland over the weekend. A lot of people are going to look at the poor numbers for Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez, but the key here is he's been lights out in each of his last 2 starts in Toronto. In those two starts, he hasn't allowed a run and given up just 3 hits in 14 2/3 innings of work. As for Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada, he hasn't been much better in 2017, as he comes in 7-8 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 29 starts. He just faced these Orioles two starts ago and it wasn't pretty. Baltimore scored 6 runs on 10 hits in the 5 innings that Estrada lasted. I look for the Orioles to get the bats going here and pull out the victory. Take Baltimore! |
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09-10-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -193 | 8-1 | Loss | -193 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'ANNIHILATOR' -193 I got no problem laying a big number here with the Dodgers in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies. I know LA has dropped 9 straight, but the losing streak ends today with Rich Hill on the mound. Hill was sharp in his last start at home against the Dbacks and owns a 3.15 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 11 home starts on the season. Colorado is countering with Tyler Chatwood, who has really been struggling. Chatwood has a miserable 11.43 ERA and 2.194 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a ugly 4.27 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Dodgers. That includes two starts this season, where's he's allowed a combined 9 runs on 9 hits and 12 walks in just 7 2/3 innings of work. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-08-17 | Twins v. Royals +108 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational Money Line 'NO BRAINER' on Royals + I really like the value here with KC as a home dog against the Twins Friday night. The Royals will have a little extra motivation for this one, as they let one get away last night vs Minnesota, blowing a 2-1 lead in the 9th. The starting pitching matchup is going to look like it's heavily in favor of the Twins, but I don't think that's the case. Minnesota starter Ervin Santana hasn't been as good in the 2nd half as he was early in the year and is just 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 24 career starts against the Royals. The last two, both this season, have seen him allow 11 runs on 16 hits (3 HRs) in just 12 innings of work. It's been a tough go of things for Ian Kennedy, but he did pitch well earlier this month against the Twins and is a veteran that is more than capable of putting it all together for a start. Despite the poor numbers the Royals are 11-5 in his last 16 starts. Take Kansas City! |
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09-07-17 | Yankees v. Orioles +100 | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Orioles Money Line 'MASSACRE' on Orioles + I really like the value here with Baltimore in tonight's showdown against AL East rival New York. The Orioles are just 1-game back of the Twins for the final Wild Card spot and only 3.5 behind the Yankees for the top Wild Card spot. Baltimore has been playing well of late and are 44-29 at home on the season. They simply aren't getting the respect they deserve at home with a red-hot pitcher on the mound in Kevin Gausman. In his last 3 starts, Gausman has posted a 2.55 ERA and has not allowed a run in each of his last 2 outings. Both of those against division opponents in the Blue Jays and Red Sox. New York will counter with Sonny Gray, who has good overall numbers, but has not had much success against the Orioles. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 4 career starts against Baltimore. Gray is also a mere 2-12 in his last 14 road starts after a loss, while the Orioles are 21-8 in their last 29 home games after a day off. Take Baltimore! |
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09-06-17 | Nationals v. Marlins +123 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued Underdog on Marlins + Miami is showing some great value here as a home dog against division rival Washington. The Marlins will be extra motivated here to avoid getting swept. They also get a chance to rough up Gio Gonzalez after he nearly threw a no hitter in his last start at Miami back on 7/31. Gonzalez wasn't sharp in his last outing, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in a 3-6 loss at Milwaukee. Miami counters here with rookie Dillon Peters, who was sensational in his first big league start. Peters allowed just 3 hits and struck out 8 over 7 scoreless innings at home against the Phillies. Washington has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6, so there's plenty of reason to expect a mother strong outing here from Peters. Take Miami! |
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09-05-17 | Astros v. Mariners +145 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night Money Line 'MASSACRE' on Mariners + I really like the value here with Seattle as a big home dog against the Astros on Tuesday. The Mariners came up short in the series opener against Houston, but the Astros had their ace on the mound in Dallas Keuchel. Tonight they send out their new addition in veteran Justin Verlander and I think that this line inflated big time on Houston. Verlander owns a mere 4.78 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 15 road starts. Detroit won just 4 of those 15 road outings. As for the Mariners, they will send out Ariel Miranda, who has a strong 3.61 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 12 home starts. It's worth noting that Miranda is a southpaw, as the Astros are just 2-10 in their last 12 overall and 1-5 in their last 6 on the road when facing a left-handed starter. Take Seattle! |
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09-05-17 | Royals v. Tigers +115 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 115 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
5* AL Central Money Line 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Tigers + We are getting exceptional value here with Detroit as a home dog against the Royals on Tuesday. I'm not a believer in the Royals, who were fortunate to escape with a 7-6 win in the series opener last night. I also think that Kansas City's starter Jason Vargas is one of the more overvalued starters going right now. Vargas is 14-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 26 starts, but almost all of his success came early in the year. Vargas has a 7.47 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of his last 10 outings. A stretch in which he's not completed more than 6 innings of work. He's also got an ugly 6.03 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 11 career starts against Detroit. Tigers are 15-5 over the last 3 seasons off a 1-run loss to a division opponent and today's starter Anibal Sanchez owns a strong 2.68 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Royals. Take Kansas City! |
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09-04-17 | Rangers v. Braves -114 | 8-2 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Braves - I like the value here with Atlanta as a short home favorite against the Rangers on Monday. The Braves snapped a 3-game skid in the finale of a 7-game road trip on Sunday. Atlanta scored 17 runs on 25 hits in the final two games against the Cubs. I look for them to rough up Texas starter Andrew Cashner, who is just 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 12 road starts Cashner also has an ugly 5.81 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Braves. Atlanta will send out R.A. Dickey, who was sensational in his last outing. Dickey allowed just 1 run in 8 innings with 8 strikeouts. I like his chances of piling up another quality start here as he's got a respectable 6-3 record with a 3.57 ERA in 14 home starts and a 2.56 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Rangers. Texas is also just 17-35 in their last 52 road games games against a team with a losing record, while Atlanta has won outright in 7 of Dickey's last 10 home starts. Take Atlanta! |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees +113 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 113 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Red Sox/Yankees AL East 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Yankees + I cashed in on the Yankees Saturday and will fire right back with New York on Sunday with an even stronger play. The Yankees desperately need to win this game, as it's the difference between leaving this series down 3.5-games or 5.5-games to Boston in the AL East. The books are begging for you to jump on the Red Sox here as a short favorite with their ace Chris Sale on the mound, but Sale struggled in his last outing against the Yankees, which was just 3 starts ago. As for New York, they send out Luis Severino, who has a strong 3.14 ERA in 26 starts overall and a sizzling 1.83 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Note September has not been kind to Sale, as he's just 2-8 over the last 2 seasons in this month. The Yankees on the other hand are 8-2 in Severino's last 10 starts and 9-3 in his last 12 against a team with a winning record. Take New York! |
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09-02-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Orioles UNDER 9.5 The books have made a big mistake setting tonight's total in the AL East showdown between the Orioles and Blue Jays. These two teams managed to combine for a single run in Baltimores 1-0 win in 13 innings last night. I look for both offenses to come out sluggish in this one. Conditions are also not ideal for scoring, as the temp is expected to be in the mid to low 60's with the wind blowing in from right center. Last night's shutout loss marked the 3rd time in the last 4 games and 6th in the last 9 that the Blue Jays managed to score 1 or fewer runs. That's a great sign that the Orioles Wade Miley can keep this offense in check. Miley does come in throwing the ball well, as he's got a 3.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also pitched well against the Blue Jays of late, having not allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts against them. With 3 of those coming this season. Toronto counters with Marcus Stroman, who has rock solid for them all season. He's got 11 wins in 27 starts and owns a 3.11 ERA on the year. He's also pitched well against the opposing team, as he's allowed just 2 runs in his last 13 2/3 innings against the Orioles. Take the UNDER! |
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09-02-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -126 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Yankees -126 I like the value here with the Yankees as a short home favorite in Saturday's showdown with the rival Red Sox. New York is going to lay it all on the line after yesterday's 1-4 loss to even up the series and drop the Yankees to just 1-4 in their last 5 games. New York will send out Masahiro Tanaka, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts. First he allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings at Toronto and last time out allowed only 1 run on 6 hits with 10 K's in 7 innings at home against the Mariners. He pitched well in his last start against the Red Sox, limiting Boston to just 3 runs in 7 2/3 innings. Yankees are 35-16 in Tanaka's last 51 home starts and 20-5 in Tanaka's 25 starts over the last 2 seasons as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take New York! |
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09-01-17 | Angels +101 v. Rangers | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* Angels/Rangers AL West 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Angels I like the value here with the Angels at basically a pick'em in Friday's series opener against the Rangers. LA just swept the A's and are just 1.5-games back of the Twins for the final Wild Card spot in the AL. Management likes what it sees and went out an added outfielder Justin Upton (expected to play tonight) and veteran second basemen Brandon Phillips (questionable). That's a huge boost for a team that was already confident and I think they ride that wave of momentum to a victory tonight. Angels will start Tyler Skaggs, who has a strong 2.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 5 road starts and I like him to out perform the Rangers Cole Hamels, who has struggled of late with a 6.23 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in his last 3 starts. LA is 9-2 in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home records, 5-1 in their last 6 vs a left-handed starter and 4-1 in their last 5 against division opponents. Take Los Angeles! |
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08-31-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -111 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Nats/Brewers MLB Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Brewers -111 Needless to say the Brewers are riding a huge wave of momentum after Keon Broxton's game-saving catch, where he robbed a home run that would have gave the Cardinals the lead in the top of the 9th. Instead, Milwaukee won 6-5 to remain 3.5 back of the Cubs in the Central and move just 3-back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot. Milwaukee could be catching the Nationals in a good spot here, as Washington has to be feeling good about themselves after closing out a 7-game homestand with 4 straight wins. The Brewers has also been a pain for Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez, who owns a mere 4.57 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 8 career starts against them. As for Milwaukee, they send out the red-hot Zach Davies, who owns a 1.37 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last 3 starts, as well as a strong 2.33 ERA in 3 career starts (all wins for MIL) against the Nationals. Take Milwaukee! |
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08-31-17 | Braves v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3* BONUS Play on Cubs UNDER 7.5 I'm throwing this one out a little later than the rest because the wind report is showing it coming straight in from center at close to 15mph for the entire game. I think hitters are going to have a tough time getting anything to leave the park tonight and with two solid pitchers throwing the UNDER looks like a solid play. |
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08-30-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -113 | 7-1 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Red Sox/Blue Jays MLB 'BEST BET' on Toronto Blue Jays -113 I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a short home favorite in Wednesday's series finale against division rival Boston. Toronto has dropped the first two games in the series, but were competitive in both. I look for things to go their way as they will lay it all on the line here to avoid getting swept at home. Toronto has the edge on the mound in this one, as they send out J.A. Happ against Rick Porcello. Happ is coming off a couple of poor outings, but is primed to bounce back here as he's got a strong 3.69 ERA in his career against Boston. As for Porcello, he's a mere 8-15 overall with a 2-6 record on the road. He also just 7-7 with a 4.70 ERA in his career against Toronto. Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 when revenging a shutout loss to an opponent (lost 3-0 yesterday), while Boston is just 5-11 when Porcello takes the mound this season after a win and a mere 2-10 in their last 12 when he takes the rubber against a division opponent. Take Toronto! |
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08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +118 | 6-7 | Win | 118 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Diamondbacks + I like the value here with Arizona as a home dog against the Dodgers. Los Angeles comes in having lost two straight, while the Diamondbacks have won 4 in a row and 6 of 7 overall. The Dodgers are already without Cody Bellinger and may not have Adrian Gonzalez for this contest. I know they have Rich Hill on the mound, who nearly threw a perfect game and then a no hitter in his last start, but that's an extremely tough act to follow up. I could see him struggling here against an Arizona team that he's not had a ton of success against. Hill is just 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 8 career starts against the Diamondbacks. His last trip to Arizona saw him allow 4 runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Dbacks counter here with a really good starter of their own in Zack Godley, who has a 3.22 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 8 home starts and has not allowed more than 3 runs in 3 career starts against the Dodgers. Take Arizona! |
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08-28-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -112 | 6-5 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
4* on Toronto Blue Jays - I like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite in Monday's series opener against the Red Sox. Boston is in a bit of a funk right now. They have lost 4 straight after getting swept by the Orioles at home over the weekend. They aren't swinging the bats well, as they managed to score just 4 runs against what most would agree is a pretty average Orioles pitching staff. I look for Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman to keep Boston's offense in check. Stroman has been rock solid all season for Toronto, posting a 3.17 ERA in 26 starts (16-10 team record). He's been at his best away from home, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 13 road starts. That includes an outing at Boston back on 7/17, where he didn't allow an earned run and gave up just 5 hits in 6 innings of work. Toronto did lost 2-7 to the Twins yesterday, but that actually sets us up into a good spot to back them. The Blue Jays are 21-8 in their last 29 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous contest and 9-4 in their last 13 following a loss. They are also 7-1 in Stroman's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less. Take Toronto! |
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08-27-17 | Rays v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under 'TOTAL OF THE WEEK' on Rays/Cardinals OVER This looks like a solid pitching matchup with Lance Lynn against Chris Archer, but my money here is on these two offenses combining for at least 9 runs. Archer is not near the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. He's got a 4.26 ERA in 13 road starts. Lynn has been solid at home, but did just give up 4 runs at home to the Padres and the Rays come in swinging a hot bat. Tampa has scored 6 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 and have combined for 11 runs on 22 hits in the first two games of this series. OVER is a perfect 10-0 in the Cardinals 10 games this season against AL teams that are scoring 4.4 or less runs/game, 16-3 in their last 19 interleague games overall and 7-0 in Archer's last 7 road starts after allowing 1 or less runs in his previous outing. Take the OVER! |
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08-26-17 | Orioles +136 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-0 | Win | 136 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational Underdog 'PLAY OF THE MONTH' on Orioles + Baltimore laid it on the Red Sox 16-3 Friday and I look for the Orioles to carry over that momentum and cash in as a big dog on Saturday. Baltimore will send out Kevin Gausman, who is going to be pumped up for this start, as he was ejected on a questionable decision in his last start against the Red Sox back on May 3rd. Gausman didn't have his best stuff last time out against the Angels, but had been throwing well prior to that outing, giving up 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his previous 6 starts. Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who could have some trouble slowing down this Orioles offensive attack. Rodriguez has allowed 7 runs in his last 2 starts and gave up 7 runs on 8 hits (4 HRs) in his last start against Baltimore back on 6/1. Red Sox are just 1-4 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts against division opponents, while the Orioles are 5-1 in Gausman's last 6 starts against the AL East. Take Baltimore! |
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08-25-17 | Pirates v. Reds +105 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* Pirates/Reds MLB Vegas 'INSIDER' Top Play on Reds + I like the value here with Cincinnati as a short home favorite against the Pirates. The Reds were able to avoid getting swept by the Cubs with a late rally to win 4-2 on Thursday. I look for them to carry over that momentum here against another division rival. Pittsburgh has been playing awful of late. The Pirates are a mere 3-9 in their last 12 games and are coming off a grueling 4-game series at home against the Dodgers. Cincinnati has had their number. The Reds have won 8 of 10 against Pittsburgh this season, including a 3-1 record at home. Pirates starter Ivan Nova is a mere 3-8 with a 4.52 ERA in 14 road starts (4-10 team record). Cincinnati counters with youngster Robert Stephenson, who has a solid 3.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and earlier this month held the Pirates to just 1 run on 2 hit in 5 2/3 innings of work. Take Cincinnati! |
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08-24-17 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* AL Central 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Twins -1.5 I like the value here with Minnesota on the run line in Thursday's finale against the White Sox. Chicago snuck out a 4-3 win yesterday, but that only makes me like the Twins more here, as they will be highly motivated to avoid losing this rare 5-game series to the White Sox. Key here is the edge that Minnesota will have on the mound. The Twins will send out Jose Berrios, who is coming off a great start at home against the Diamondbacks, allowing just 2 hits over 7 shutout innings. Berrios is also 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 2 career starts against the White Sox. Chicago counters with Derek Holland, who is 6-13 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.720 WHIP in 24 starts. He's been especially bad of late, allowing 14 runs on 13 hits and 7 walks in a mere 4 1/3 innings over his last 2 starts. He's faced the Twins 3 times this season and has allowed 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. Take Minnesota -1.5! |
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08-23-17 | Cubs -140 v. Reds | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NL Central Money Line 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Cubs - I really like the value here with Cubs in Wednesday's matchup with the Reds. Chicago has owned the Reds, going 37-15 against them the last 3 years. They rallied twice in yesterday's 13-9 win, so they got some momentum rolling over to this one. The Cubs offense has been on fire of late, scoring 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. They put up a 15 spot in a 10-run win over the Reds and starter Asher Wojciechowski back on 8/14. I'll take my chances on Chicago's offense putting up another big number. The Cubs counter with Mike Montgomery, who will making the switch back to the rotation after being used as a long reliever. Montgomery has made 8 starts on the season and has pitched well in the majority of those outings, allowing 3 runs or less in 5 of the 8 starts. Reds are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games with a total of 10 to 10.5 and 8-24 in their last 32 against a left-handed starter. Take Chicago! |
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08-22-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas *INSIDER* Top Play on Cardinals -1.5 I like the value here with St Louis at home on the run line Tuesday against the Padres. This is a huge game for the Cardinals as they look to get back on track after a disappointing 2-4 road trip. San Diego is just the team to face to get this turned around. The Padres are a mere 22-39 on the road and come in having scored a mere 6 runs over their last 4 games. I don't see the offense getting on track here against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn, who comes in with a 2.62 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 11 home starts and has a 3.05 ERA in 25 starts overall. Padres are counting with Clayton Richard, who is 1-5 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 12 road starts. St Louis is 27-13 in their last 40 when they enter a game having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7. They are also 25-7 in Lynn's last 32 home starts when working on 5 or days of rest, 27-10 in his last 37 home starts against a team with a losing record and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. Take St Louis! |
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08-21-17 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Red Sox/Indians UNDER I really like the value here with the total and it staying UNDER the mark in Monday's big AL showdown between the Red Sox and Indians. While both of these teams have a comfortable 5-game lead in their respective divisions, there is just 2.5-games separating these two teams in the standings with Boston currently holding that edge. If both go on to win their divisions, the team with the better record will get home field advantage when they meet in the postseason. I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here at Progressive Field and I like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston sends outs Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with Mike Clevinger, who comes in with a strong 3.37 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 15 starts this season. UNDER is 15-4 in Rodriguez's last 19 starts in the 2nd half of the season against a team who strikes out 7 or more times/game and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as an underdog. UNDER is also 28-14 in the Indians last 42 against a left-handed starter and 30-17 in their last 47 against a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! |
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08-20-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates -105 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Pirates - I really like the value here with Pittsburgh as a short home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball. The Pirates snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 6-4 win on Saturday and I like the pitching edge they have in this one. St Louis will send out the struggling Mike Leake, who has been a shell of the guy that started out the season looking like an ace. Leake's now just 7-11 with a 3.87 ERA on the year and comes in with a 8.81 ERA and 2.022 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Pittsburgh counters here with Ivan Nova, who is coming off a strong outing at Milwaukee in his last start, allowing just 1 run in 6 innings. Nova has pitched his best at home this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 10 home starts (8-2 team record at home). He was sharp in his only career start against the Cardinals earlier this year, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits (0 walks) in 8 innings of work. Take Pittsburgh! |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Twins | 0-5 | Loss | -138 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Diamondbacks - I'm sticking with Arizona in game 2 of their series against the Twins. This is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Diamondbacks with the edge they have on the mound. Arizona sends out their ace in Zack Greinke against the struggling Jose Berrios. Greinke is 14-5 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Of those 24 starts, 20 have come at night and that's when Greinke has been at his best, posting a 2.55 ERA and 0.990 WHIP. He's also an impressive 3-0 with a 0.65 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 4 interleague outings this season. Berrios has been a different pitcher since his strong start in May and June. The opposing team has scored 4 or more runs while he's been in the game in 7 of his last 9 starts. Take Arizona! |
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08-19-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
5* American League 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Red Sox -1.5 Boston is a massive favorite at home on Saturday, which is surely going to draw a lot of money on the Yankees, even though the Red Sox have their ace in Chris Sale on the mound. I'm not willing to lay the big juice, but I do think Boston is the obvious play here and will back them on the -1.5 run line. The Red Sox have all the momentum in this series, last weekend they won the final two games against the Yankees and just stole back the series opener on Friday. Boston blew a 3-0 lead and trailed 3-4 after NY scored 4 in the Top of the 7th. The Red Sox responded with 4 in the bottom of the inning and two more in the 8th in a 9-6 win. Sale has been dominant at home this season, going 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 starts. He's also owned the Yankees in his career, posting a 1.36 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in 10 starts against them. NY counters with C.C. Sabathia, who is trending in the wrong direction. He's allowed 4 runs in each of his last 3 starts and has pitched past the 5th inning just once since the All-Star break. Take Boston! |
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08-18-17 | Diamondbacks -112 v. Twins | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Diamondbacks - I really like the value here with Arizona as a short road favorite against the Twins Friday night. Arizona is the much better team here and I'm a big fan of today's starter Zack Godley, who doesn't get the respect he deserves. Godley has a 2.95 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 17 starts and has an even better 2.72 ERA in 9 road start. Not to mention he comes in red-hot with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. Twins counter with Ervin Santana, who has a respectable 3.28 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 24 starts, but has not been the same pitcher as the guy who was 7.2 with a 1.75 ERA at the end of May. He's had his fair share of troubles at home, where he owns a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts (5-7 team record). Dbacks are 11-3 in interleague games, which includes a 9-1 record against the AL Central. Take Arizona! |
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08-17-17 | Braves v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas 'INSIDER' Top Play on Rockies -1.5 After scoring exactly 3 runs in 6 straight games, Colorado's offense exploded for 17 runs on 18 hits in yesterday's 15-run win over the Braves. My money is on the Rockies to continue that offensive surge on Thursday against Atlanta starter Lucas Sims. In his first 3 big league starts, Sims has gone 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.443 WHIP. I just don't see him snapping out of it at Coors Field, arguably the toughest place to pitch in the majors. Given that Colorado should score early an often, I'll take my chances on Jeff Hoffman doing enough here to get the Rockies a win by at least 2 runs. Hoffman has been much better of late, posting a 3.50 ERA in 3 August starts. Take Colorado -1.5! |
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08-16-17 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 115 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* AL Run Line 'GAME OF THE YEAR' on Rangers -1.5 I really like the value here with Texas on the run line. The Rangers might be 2-games under .500 at 58-60, but are also just 2-games back of the final Wild Card spot in the AL. More importantly, Texas is playing well right now. They have won the first two in the series here against Detroit and 5 of their last 6 overall. The Tigers on the other hand are a mere 2-9 in their last 11. On top of the current form of these two teams, Texas has a huge advantage on the mound in this one. Rangers send out their ace Cole Hamels, who has been lights out of late with a 1.23 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hamels also owns an impressive 2.66 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 7 starts. Detroit counters with the struggling Anibal Sanchez, who appears to have hit a wall, allowing 13 runs on 18 hits (7 HRs) in his last 2 starts. Add in a Tigers bullpen that has a 6.39 ERA and 1.591 WHIP on the road this season and the Rangers shoudl have no problem winning here by at least 2 runs. Take Texas! |
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08-15-17 | Indians -1.5 v. Twins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Indians -1.5 Yesterday we cashed in easily on the Cubs -1.5 in their 15-5 win over the Reds. I see a similar scenario playing out in Tuesday's series opener between the Twins and Indians. Cleveland has won 4 straight and while they will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a different city, my money is on the Indians to not only win but to win convincingly. This is a straight fade of Twins starter Bartolo Colon. I know he's pitched great in his last two outings, but it came against a couple of struggling offenses in the Rangers and Brewers. Cleveland is coming off a 7-run outburst yesterday and should be able to feast on Colon, who even with his recent success still comes in 4-9 with a 6.77 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in 18 starts. Indians counter with the red-hot Danny Salazar, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last 3 starts. His only start vs the Twins came in Minnesota back in April and he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. Take Cleveland -1.5! |
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08-14-17 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* National League Run Line 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Cubs -1.5 I really like the value here with Chicago on the run line in Monday's series opener against NL Central rival Cincinnati. The Cubs are coming off a respectable 3-3 west coast road trip, which saw them take 2 of 3 at Arizona, which has been an extremely difficult place for opposing teams to win. Kris Bryant is on fire and a number of Cubs hitters are also swinging a hot bat. I look for Chicago to score early and often against Reds starter Asher Wojciechowski, who has a 6.11 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in 6 starts. He's made just 2 road starts and has a 8.00 ERA in those. Cubs counter with Jose Quintana, who has pitched very well in 4 of his 5 starts since being acquired via a trade. Take Chicago -1.5! |
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08-13-17 | Royals -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-6 | Win | 115 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas 'INSIDER' Top Play on Royals -1.5 I cashed in on the Royals Saturday, as KC snapped the White Sox 4-game winning streak, while also putting an end to their own 5-game skid. My money is on the Royals to build off the momentum of that win and not only take the series finale Sunday, but to win in convincing fashion, which is why I'm not just playing the money line, but taking Kansas City to win here by at least 2 runs on the run line. The Royals will send out Jason Vargas, who is overrated, but still more than capable of keeping this below average White Sox offense in check. Varags has only allowed 3 runs over his last 2 starts against them, which has spanned 11 innings. The Royals offense should be able to carry the load here even if Vargas isn't on top of his game. Chicago will send out Derek Hollan, who is 6-11 with a 5.64 ERA in 22 starts and owns an ugly 6.19 ERA and 2.187 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Kansas City -1.5! |
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08-12-17 | Royals -151 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
5* AL Central 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Royals - I got no problem laying the juice with KC in this one. I know the Royals are slumping and the White Sox have now won 4 straight, but don't be fooled. KC just needs a spark to get back on track. As for the White Sox, this is still the worst team in the majors. Getting to 4 straight is impressive, but I'll take my chances on the streak ending tomorrow. This comes down to starting pitching. Chicago's James Shield has an atrocious 6.03 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 12 starts. He's still on the team more for a mentor than his skill set. He's got a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's been consistently bad since returning from the DL. I'll take my chances that KC's offense can do enough here to get the win behind starter Ian Kennedy. Take Kansas City! |
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08-11-17 | Indians v. Rays +126 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Undervalued Underdog on Rays + Great value here with Tampa Bay against the Indians. Cleveland is not playing well at all right now. The Trible have dropped 4 of their last 5, including the series opener last night 1-5. The offense for the Indians has been atrocious, as they are hitting a mere .170 as a team over their last 7. They are still getting a ton of respect on the betting line because they are such a public team. This is every bit a play on Tampa as it is a fade of Cleveland. Rays starter Jacob Faria has been lights out in his 11 starts. He's got a 2.81 ERA and 1.144 WHIP with the team going 8-3 with him on the mound. Indians counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is struggling, having allowed 10 runs on 12 hits and 5 walks in his last 2 starts. Take Tampa Bay! |
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08-11-17 | Twins +117 v. Tigers | 9-4 | Win | 117 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
4* MLB Heavy Hitter on Twins + Minnesota is showing some great value here as a home dog against the Tigers. The Twins are rolling right now, as they just swept the Brewers in 4-game home-and-home series, giving them 5 straight wins overall. While Minnesota is surging, Detroit is in a fun, as they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games. Tigers will send out Anibal Sanchez, who is coming off a miserable outing at Baltimore, where he allowed 8 runs on 10 hits (5 HRs) in just 3 innings of work. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has a ugly 6.03 ERA on the season, but has been throwing much better of late, allowing just 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts. Twins are 22-9 this season as a road dog of +150 or less and 3-0 off back-to-back wins by 4 runs or more. Take Minnesota! |
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08-10-17 | Dodgers -168 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* MLB Heavy Hitter 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Dodgers - I'll take my chances laying the big juice on LA Thursday given the huge edge the Dodgers have on the mound in this one. Los Angeles will send out their big trade addition in Yu Darvish. He was sensational in his first start with his new team, allowing just 3 hits with 10 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. In that start he defeated one of the best starters in the NL in the Mets Jacob deGrom. Today he's opposed by Arizona's Anthony Banda, who has made just 2 big league starts. He was decent in his last outing at San Francisco. However, that's a bad offense and pitchers park. He was much worst in his first start at home against a loaded Natonals lineup. Dodgers are every bit as good, if not better than Washington at the plate. Take Los Angeles! |
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08-09-17 | Astros -1.5 v. White Sox | 1-7 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Run Line 'MASSACRE' on Astros -1.5 Chicago snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 8-5 win in yesterday's series opener at Houston. Even though the Astros are crusing to the best record in the AL, I expect them to come out looking to make a statement here against without a doubt the worst team in baseball right now in the White Sox. Chicago is a team that simply struggles to keep game competitive against the bottom feeders. I don't see them pulling off another big upset or staying within 1-run tonight. Houston will send out Collin Mchugh, who has really pitched well since joining the rotation on 7/22. He's made 3 starts and owns a 3.24 ERA and 1.080 WHIP. Note that's with him allowing 4 runs in just 4 2/3 innings in his first start back. Since he's allowed 2 earned runs on a mere 9 hits in 12 innings over his last 2 starts. Miguel Gonzalez for Chicago has pitched well at times, but is not in good form with a 6.60 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Houston -1.5! |
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08-09-17 | Twins v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague 'PLAY OF THE WEEK' on Brewers -1.5 (+135) I'll gladly back the Brewers to not only win here, but to do so by at least 2 runs. The fact that Bartolo Colon is comignoff a couple of decent starts, including a complete game (allowed 4 runs) in his last start, has Milwaukee showing great value here on the run line. Colon still owns a 7.32 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in 17 starts this season and I expect the 40+ year old to struggle after throwing 100+ pitches in his last start. Keep in mind he made a start at Milwaukee earlier this season and allowed 6 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings of work. Brewers counter here with Brandon Woodruff, who impressed in his first big league start, going on the road and limiting the Rays to just 7 hits over 6 1/3 shutout innings of work. Twins have been hitting the ball decent of late, but that was at home. They don't pack the same punch on the road and simply won't be able to score enough to keep this game close. Take Milwaukee -1.5! |
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08-09-17 | Pirates v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 0-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Pirates/Tigers UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER given the high total in Wednesday's showdown between the Tigers and Pirates. Detroit will send out veteran ace Justin Verlander, who has a solid 3.29 ERA in 11 home starts and has been dealing of late with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova, who has struggled of late, but still comes in with a 3.66 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 22 starts on the season. Nova's 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts can be attributed to a bad outing at Coors Field, which is going to happen. Given how well Pittsburgh has been playing and The Tigers offense struggling right now (3 or less runs in 4 straight game), I think he performs well in this outing. Take the UNDER! |
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08-08-17 | Orioles +107 v. Angels | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line 'ANNIHILATOR' on Orioles + I'm jumping on the Orioles bandwagon here. Baltimore has now won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall, while the Angels come in having lost 3 in a row. Baltimore offense is rolling right now, as they have scored 23 runs on 36 hits in their last 3 games. LA starter Parker Bridwell has a respectable 3.42 ERA in 9 starts, but owns a not so great 4.75 ERA in 5 outings at home. Orioles counter with newly acquired Jeremy Hellickson, who was sensational in his first start with his new team, allowing just 5 hits over 7 shutout innings. Helicksonowns a 2.67 ERA in 6 career starts against the Angels and I look for him to build off that strong showing and the Orioles to win here rather easily. Take Baltimore! |
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08-08-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* AL East 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Blue Jays - I really like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite against the Yankees. New York is a huge public team and are simply getting too much respect here. The Yankees send out veteran C.C. Sabathia, who is headed in the wrong direction with a 5.28 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Toronto counters with J.A. Happ, who has been sharp in his last 2 outings, allowing just 4 run with 15 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Happ is also 7-2 with a solid 3.73 ERA in 15 career starts against the Yankees. That includes a recent outing on July 4th, where he allowed a mere 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innigns of a 4-1 win, which just so happened to come with Sabathia on the mound for New York. Take Toronto! |
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08-07-17 | Orioles v. Angels -122 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Angels - I really like the value here with the Angels as a short home favorite against the Orioles on Monday. This is a tough spot for Baltimore, who just finished up their 4-game series at home againt the Tigers yesterday and had to jump on a plane to travel across the country to face LA for the first time this season. I look for the Orioles to struggle offensively in this one, as they are a team that relies on the long ball and the ball doesn't fly as well late in LA. The Angels also send out red-hot starter J.C. Ramirez who has a 1.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. Baltiomre counters with Dylan Bundy, who is coming off a strong start, but that was at home on extra rest. With Trout swinging a hot bat, I look for Bundy to struggle here and add to his 4.80 ERA and 1.344 WHIP on the road this season. Take Los Angeles! |
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08-06-17 | Nationals v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
5* MLB Afternoon Run Line 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Cubs -1.5 The Cubs snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 7-4 win on Saturday and I look for Chicago to build off that game here and easily take the series finale Sunday. Washington is just 3-5 in their last 8 and will be excited to get this game over with and head back for a 9-game homstand (have played just 6 home games since returning from the break). This definitely feels like a throw away game for Washington, as they send out Erick Fedde to take on Cubs ace Jon Lester, who has been a machine since the break and owns a 0.842 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Fedde is making his second big league start and his first one wasn't one to remember, as he gave up 7 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks with just 3 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. Take Chicago -1.5! |
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08-05-17 | Cardinals v. Reds -135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* Cardinals/Reds NL Central 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Reds - The fact the Reds are this big of a favorite over a Cardinals team that's fighting to win the division should tell you all you need to know about what side the sharps are on. I've watched numerous starts by Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo and have really been impressed with his stuff. He's coming off a sensational outing at Miami to close out July, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings. I look for him to tame a Cardinals offense that is scoring a mere 2.1 runs/game over their last 7 contests. Reds won yesterday's series opener and are now a solid 4-1 over their last 5, so they got momentum on their side as well. Take Cincinnati! |
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08-04-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 7-16 | Win | 127 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Run Line 'MASSACRE' on Astros -1.5 Houston lost 3 straight to close out their last series at home against the Rays and I expect a pissed off and locked in Astros team to take the field tonight in the opener against the Blue Jays. This all comes down to the pitching matchup and I give the Astros a huge advantage there. They send out Brad Peacock, who has a 2.93 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 11 starts (9-2 team record). Toronto counters with Cesar Valdez, who has made 3 starts and owns an ugly 7.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP, giving up 7 runs in 2 innings in his last outing. Not only do the Astros win, but they win big. Take Houston -1.5! |