Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24 | 20-37 | Loss | -101 | 102 h 41 m | Show | |
Really like the Wolfpack here against Marshall. Both teams had very misleading scores last week. NC St dominated South Carolina out gaining them by 258 yards and the fact they lost shows the bad luck they had. South Carolina only had 12 first downs for the game and they ran the opening kick back for a TD. Marshall on the other hand should have lost easily as they returned 2 kicks for TD and even a pick six in the 3rd quarter. I think Marshall will have their hands full big time here getting stops. NC St pours it on them |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -7 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 38 m | Show | |
The price is right here to back Sparty especially given this situation. Michigan St is on the bounce back this year and a horrible season. I know people will say Sparty has Notre Dame next, but that's before a bye week so they won't be looking ahead IMO. Western Michigan is getting a lot of love because they played USC tough. Well now we have a big travel issue here that I always look for early. Western Michigan has success on the ground vs the Trojans, but that plays right into Sparty's hands as they only gave up 67 on the ground. Lay the number! |
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09-02-17 | Miami-OH +2.5 v. Marshall | 26-31 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
I think the wrong team is favored here in this game. There are 3 teams to me this year in the MAC to keep an eye on and that is Miami Oh Toledo and Northern Illinois. I have this Miami Oh team winning the MAC East here this year with 16 returning starters. They won 6 games last year after starting the season 0-6. 3 of those were very close losses. I really like their QB in Ragland here as well. Marshall is a team that is projected to be nothing special by any means in Conference USA. They only won 3 games last year and were 2-6 in the conference. They also only return 11 total starters from that bad team which doesn't bold well. |
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09-02-17 | Western Michigan v. USC -26 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
The Trojans only return 4 on offense but the main piece is their QB Sam Darnold who most consider the best QB in college football. I love how they finished the season winning 9 straight after starting 1-3. They also return 6 on defense that had the 3rd best defense in the Pac 12. This is mostly a play against Western Michigan a team I will look to fade this season as we all know they lost their coach in PJ Fleck to Minnesota. They lost their stud WR Corey Davis #5 overall pick in the NFL Draft. They also lost their QB Zach Terrell who was very good himself. When small schools lose that much and don't have top notch recruiting classes to fill their shoes. |
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09-02-17 | Temple v. Notre Dame -18 | 16-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
If most of you listened to my win season total podcast I am very high on Notre Dame this year. Last year simply everything went wrong they lost every close game and Brian Kelley is on the hot seat where I expect him to bounce back. Notre Dame returns 8 on offense and 7 on defense and will be out for blood this season. Temple is a team that simply careered it last year winning 10 games going 7-1 in conference. Well after that great season being covering machines also, they lost their coach to Baylor and lost a ton of talent as they only return 4 starters a piece on each side of the ball. I think their defense especially up front will get man handled and wore down as game goes on |
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09-02-17 | South Carolina v. NC State -5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Talk about one of the most experienced teams in the country returning 16 starters. What I really like is that they have everyone back on both lines expect one guy! They NC St team should have beat Clemson last year losing in OT, only lost to Florida St by 4. Finley is more than a capable QB now that he is an upperclassmen. I simply don't trust South Carolina for the fact I don't trust their overrated head coach in Will Muschamp. Sure he does return a lot but this team beat absolutely no one last season. Their offense was 2nd worst in the SEC. The value lies with the Wolfpack because this game is being played on a neutral field here. I expect sharp some to drive this up |
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09-02-17 | Maryland v. Texas -18.5 | 51-41 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
I just think we are getting very good value because of the way Texas played last season. There is a new guy and in town now and Tom Herman is very highly regarded coming over from Houston. What he did with that program was extremely impressive. He gets a ton of talent on Texas especially returning 10 on defense. They also return their stud QB who was only a true freshman last year in Shane Buechele. Maryland comes to town with 2nd year coach in Durkin who did win 6 games last year but they beat Howard FIU UCF Rutgers Purdue and Michigan St. None of those teams were any good. They only return 6 from the 2nd worst defense in the Big Ten last year. I believe they simply get torched as Herman will want to make a statement |
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08-31-17 | New Mexico State v. Arizona State -22 | 31-37 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a huge year for the Sun Devils and Todd Graham. He is easily one of the top 5 coaches on the heat seat this year following a 5-7 season. The major problem was their defense last year as they got in shootouts and couldn't stop anyone. That was a key for them this off season and expect them to be a lot better on that side of the ball. They won't have any problem scoring here tonight against a New Mexico St who gave up 47.9 points per game on the road last season and lost every single road game. This has a major blowout written all over it tonight. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I know it's hard to go against Bama as they have proven they are capable of blowing about any team out. This Clemson team IMO is the only team I believe is capable of up beating them. We all know about Watson the stud QB for the Tigers. He has revenge on his mind from last year and wont scared of the moment. Bama has a freshman QB and now a big question mark with Kiffin leaving. Replacing an OC is an extremely hard thing to do especially given the shortness of time and take into count the magnitude of this game. That's a big red flag for me here. Clemson has the 2nd best defense behind Bama. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Clemson come out on top here |
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01-02-17 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -2.5 | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
It's simply to hard to pass up on the value here with the Sooners. IMO they have the edge everywhere. Auburn is extremely one dimensional and that will cost them in this game. OU is playing their best football of the season right now while Auburn is limping into this game. The Tigers get blown out by Bama lose to Georgia and barely beat a bad Vanderbilt team @ home by just 7 while favored by 25. Auburn will have no answer for the Sooners on offense. |
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01-02-17 | USC -6.5 v. Penn State | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 218 h 42 m | Show |
I love the Trojans here in this spot against Penn St as I think this will be a blow out from the get go. It really reminds me a lot of the Iowa Stanford game from last year. Penn St won the Big 10 and now are getting nearly a TD? It shows you what Vegas actually thinks of this team. USC is one of the hottest teams in all of college football and they by far have a lot more talent. Sam Darnold will expose this secondary in a big way lay the points |
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01-02-17 | Iowa +3 v. Florida | 3-30 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm going to back the Hawkeyes here as I believe the only reason Florida is favored is because this game is in their home state. Florida really struggles on offense and the Hawkeyes are very good against the run. Iowa finished their season very strong after they were embarrassed at Penn St by beating Michigan SU and blowing out Nebraska by 30. |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +3 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
I really think the wrong team is favored here tomorrow night. Ohio St is a quality team no doubt, but I wasn't really impressed with them this year. They actually should have lost to Michigan and wouldn't even be here if the "spot" was different. Clemson has the better defense the better QB and overall the better athletes. I will gladly take the field goal here |
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12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3.5 | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
I realize Kentucky won their last two game to get here, but they are simply over matched in my eyes here. Georgia Tech is playing with a ton of confidence. They ended the season in great fashion winning @ Va Tech, blowing out Virginia and then beating rival Georgia at their place. This is an option team and everyone knows it. Generally people say when you have a lot of time to prepare for it you can stop it. Well, this Kentucky team is terrible against the run giving up nearly 5 yards a carry. I think they are in for a long day! |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 149 h 31 m | Show |
I was really surprised when this bowl line opened up a full TD. This match up alone will sure as motivation for Florida St here. Michigan is getting a lot of respect because of the season they had and how close they were to beating Ohio St. Talent wise I actually think FSU has the better talent and they are playing in their home state as well. Dalvin Cook will be a RB Michigan hasn't seen all year. I really expect this line to drop closing to game time so grab the points now |
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12-30-16 | TCU +1 v. Georgia | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 140 h 28 m | Show | |
I think the wrong team is favored here in this spot. Georgia will get a lot of love because of being in the SEC, but the SEC East was a terrible conference this year and the Bulldogs did nothing that impressed me. Georgia lost to rival Georgia Tech @ home to end the season they struggled against UL Lafayette, should have lost to Kentucky in only winning by 3. TCU was 3-9 ATS this season and teams that struggle ATS covering less than 35% of spreads cover over 60% in the bowl season. |
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12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
I was hoping this number would some how get to 6, wishful thinking I guess. This Pitt team is getting a lot of credit and respect because of one game and that was beating Clemson. There is one glaring reason I can't back Pitt here and that is because of their defense. Pitt is giving up 6 yards per play and are actually being out gained by 5 yards a game, definitely not a sign of a 8-4 team. Northwestern plays the type of ball that will keep Pitt's offense off the field with long possessions on offense. |
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12-27-16 | Washington State -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -100 | 334 h 0 m | Show |
I was all over this line early when I heard the new of Gopher players being suspended. It is clear that Minnesota doesn't have an interest in this game and are missing starters on the defensive side against a pass happy team. Also Minnesota has never seen a tempo like this and I expect a route to say the least from the get go here |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest +11.5 v. Temple | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 12 m | Show | |
This Temple will be getting a lot of love here as they have gone a College Football best 12-1 ATS. I just don't like the situation here for them to blow out Wake Forest. They are playing the same place they just won their conference title at which may not seem like much, but it is a factor for me big time. Also their HC has left for Baylor which is a big distraction as I have already gone against one school in Houston with their coach leaving and we all know how that worked out. |
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12-23-16 | Ohio +4.5 v. Troy | 23-28 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm not so sure the wrong team is favored here. I know Idaho just won last night as a big underdog and they are in the same conference as Troy, but I'm not buying much into the conference as a whole. I think the MAC is way better than the Sun Belt. I also like Ohio coming off a hard fought loss to undefeated Western Michigan in which they did have a chance to win at the end. Ohio has the better defense here as well. Troy has been getting torched on the ground and that doesn't serve well come bowl season. Frank Solich is also the better coach here. I will take Ohio and the points |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +4 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 34 m | Show | |
I like the Aztecs here catching the points. This is mainly based off motivation alone here as Coach Herman left Houston for Texas which I feel was a big distraction for this team as they under achieved this season. Also now they head to Vegas and I looked at their roster they only have two kids on that team west of Texas. I'm pretty sure for most of them it will be their first time in Vegas and when they had dreams of possibly playing in final four series or even a New Years Day Bowl I don't seem them interested here. SDSU is playing hard and there is no better evidence than them winning @ Wyoming for their conference championship as they just lost there 2 weeks prior. Pumphrey is a load at RB for the Aztecs and I know the Cougars have a solid D, I question again the effort level here with everything that has gone on |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I believe the wrong team is favored here tonight. Wisconsin QB is banged up and still isn't listed to go although I do expect him to play. Penn St is on a roll here the last 8 games averaging over 40 ppg and their QB Trace McSorely is on fire as well with just 2 INT's dating back to Sept 24th. I see Penn St pulling this one out |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 57 h 5 m | Show |
I love the Huskies here tonight as they have a ton to play for considering they are in the 4th pot for the playoffs. This team is 4th in country right now in scoring and have key play makers on the defensive side of the ball in fact 5 that rank inside the top 100 for NFL draft which is very impressive. Colorado is still getting a lot of respect because they are 10-2 and 10-2 ATS this yar, but they don't want a shoot out here. Washington has the better QB in Jake Browning who I feel is a top 5 college QB, they also have the better coach in Chris Petersen who is no stranger to big games. I love the Huskies to make a statement win with the whole country finally getting a chance to watch them! |