Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 59.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/Utah (7:30 ET): Well, this line should certainly catch your eye. For just the second time ever, we’ve got a Top 3 team getting points against an opponent with two or more losses in the month of November. The only other time this happened was 2010 when underdog Auburn (#2) won 28-27 at Alabama. I do not believe for a second that the Ducks are the third best team in the country, but a win over Ohio State early in the season and the fact they have just one loss (at Stanford in overtime) seems to justify their place among the top four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks end up losing here, but do not want to lay points. Utah currently leads the Pac 12 South, so this could end up being the first of two meetings with Oregon as the teams are on track to meet again in the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Utes are 7-3 SU and on a three-game win streak. They are also on a six-game Over run, putting up a ton of points themselves in the process. Last week it was a 38-29 win over Arizona. But I expect the Utes to struggle to move the ball in this one. Oregon’s defense has allowed an average of just 292.7 yards the last three games and gives up just 22.6 PPG for the season. Not to be overlooked is the fact Utah has allowed an average of only 302.3 yards its last three games. Here in Salt Lake City, they allow just 18.8 PPG. One of the touchdowns that the Utes allowed last week came on a blocked punt. The Under is 6-1 in Oregon’s last seven road games and I’m not convinced the Ducks can continue to convert third downs at their current rate (51.6%!) and this is a pretty high total (2nd highest for Utah all year), given the stakes involved. 8* Under Oregon/Utah |
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11-20-21 | Michigan v. Maryland +15.5 | Top | 59-18 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 14 m | Show |
10* Maryland (3:30 ET): Michigan is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS after getting by Penn State last week. That win kept the Wolverines at #6 in the rankings, ahead of next week’s showdown with #4 Ohio State. If the Buckeyes defeat #7 Michigan State on Saturday and Michigan wins here, then that would set up a “winner take all” showdown in the Big Ten East next week. I know that Maryland, Michigan’s opponent this week, has had its fair share of problems. But this is an opportune time to play against the Wolverines, off the big win last week and with the rivalry game looming next week. Take the points. I know I may be a little bit biased (had Maryland) but the Terps probably deserved a better fate than losing by 19 last week at Michigan State. Total yardage was fairly even in that contest, but there were four Maryland drives that ended inside the Spartans’ 40-yard line that resulted in a combined zero points! That’s brutal. QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s younger brother) threw for 300+ yards for the sixth time this season, which is not only the most for any Big 10 QB in 2021 but also a school record. Maryland has now failed to cover in any of its last six games, but should remain motivated as it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. I actually believe that Michigan does deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the head to head loss. However, the Wolverines have had some close calls this season, winning three Big 10 games by seven points or less. I think this could be yet another close one as the Wolverines’ defense hasn’t been nearly as stout on the road as it has been in Ann Arbor. One of Michigan’s top two running backs, Blake Corum, is likely to miss this game as well. It’s a classic “sandwich” spot for the favorite whose previous four road games have all had a line of four points or less. 10* Maryland |
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11-20-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 38 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
9* Over Illinois/Iowa (2:00 ET): The last eight games involving Illinois have all stayed Under the total. Perhaps the “nadir” for Over bettors came when the Fighting Illini took on Penn State, a game that went to NINE overtimes and still stayed Under. None of the Illini’s Big 10 games have seen more than 38 total points scored and this week they are matched up with the team that has the #7 scoring defense in the country, Iowa, who allows only 16.3 PPG. Yet this O/U line is so low that it is just BEGGING to be played Over. For the season, Illinois’ games average 38.9 PPG. Iowa games average 41.0 PPG. Illinois is coming out of a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to scheme for how they want to attack this Iowa defense. Last week saw the Hawkeyes give up 22 points for the third time in four games. They also allowed 400+ yards for just the second time this season. The Hawkeyes were actually statistically dominated by Minnesota (outgained 409-277), but fortunate to hold the Gophers to three short field goals. Unfortunately though, Illinois won’t have HC Brett Bielema on the sidelines as he’s tested positive for COVID-19. I expect that Bielema’s absence will have a greater effect on the defensive side of the ball for the Illini. Iowa scored 27 last week, it’s most in a game since a 51-14 win over Maryland back on October 1st. Also, don’t discount the Hawkeyes’ defense being able to create takeaways that lead to a score or two. With their lowest O/U line in a game all year, Illinois’ Under streak is due to end here. 9* Over Illinois/Iowa |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): At the risk of sounding biased, there is simply no way that anyone can convince me that Michigan State is the 7th best team in the country. Congrats to HC Mel Tucker for getting a big extension based off his Spartans being 9-1 SU and still alive for a Big 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff. But this is a team that SHOULD have lost to Michigan a few weeks ago and also has two other narrow wins against Nebraska (OT) and Indiana. Even last week’s 40-21 win over Maryland comes with an “asterisk” as Sparty was only +34 in total yards. It’s time that MSU “meets its maker” this week and that maker is #4 Ohio State. The Buckeyes, unlike Michigan State, are a legit playoff team in my eyes. Since losing to #3 Oregon early in the season, OSU has rolled through the Big 10 (as per usual) winning the seven games by an average of 27.9 points. If that’s not enough, just last week the Buckeyes slaughtered the same Purdue team (59-31) that handed Michigan State its only loss. Because this is a battle of Top 7 teams, this is a rare instance where the public figures to be taking the points. Early reports are that the public is “all over” the double digit dog in this one and I think that’s a mistake. Right off the bat, it speaks volumes that Ohio State is favored by this many points. My own power ratings confirm the line as being accurate, if not a bit low. I have the Buckeyes now rated as the #2 team in the country, only behind Georgia, so this is their chance to make a statement in front of a big TV audience. Consider that this is just the second time in history that a matchup of Top 7 teams has a spread of 19 points or more. That was in 2013 and the favorite (Florida State) won 41-14 (over Miami). Michigan State has an awful pass defense that will be exploited by Buckeyes’ QB Stroud and the #1 scoring offense in the country. OSU has won each of the last four matchups by 20 points or more. 8* Ohio State |
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11-19-21 | Memphis +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:00 ET): Memphis is a team that still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. At 5-5 SU, the Tigers have two games left, this one and next week at home vs. Tulane. They’ll be favored in next week’s game, but why leave it to chance? The Tigers were “oh, so close” to their sixth win last week, but lost in OT, 30-29 to East Carolina as their two-point conversion attempt (to win the game) failed. While they’ve now lost five of their last seven, four of those defeats have been by six points or less and remember they did beat SMU two weeks ago. I’m taking the points Friday night. Houston was the first team to hand SMU a loss this season. That came at the end of October and the Cougars have kept on rolling here in November. Road wins over USF (54-42) and Temple (37-8) have the Cougs now ranked in the Top 25 (#24) and on a nine-game win streak. Their lone loss of the season came in the season opener to Texas Tech. I will say that the schedule has been somewhat fortuitous as UH avoids Cincinnati in the regular season. But last week’s win did set up a matchup with the #5 ranked Bearcats in the American Conference Championship Game, which takes place two weeks from now. With their place in the AAC Championship all sewn up, might Houston be overlooking Memphis in this spot? That’s certainly a possibility. Before holding a terrible Temple team to just 8 points last week, the Cougars defense had allowed a total of 79 points its previous two games. Memphis, who has won and covered five straight in the series, is capable of putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored 28 or more points in every game but one this season. This will be the first time in 2021 that the Tigers are getting more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Houston is just 3-11 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points. 8* Memphis |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss +16 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10* Southern Miss (8:00 ET): The Golden Eagles came through for me last Saturday, easily covering as 32.5 point underdogs against undefeated UTSA. In fact, they actually LED OUTRIGHT for most of the third quarter. Now we shouldn’t lose sight of “the plot,” which is that Southern Miss is pretty clearly a bad team. They are just 1-9 SU on the season and had failed to cover seven straight games going into last week. But they showed me that they are still willing to compete and getting double digits against a 3-7 La Tech team - that has nothing left to play for - is an attractive option. Take the points. Now La Tech was a SU winner last week, 42-32 against Charlotte as 6.5-point favorites. But it was the week before, when they lost 52-38 to UAB, that the Bulldogs saw their faint chances of bowl eligibility go out the window. They’d lost five in a row before beating Charlotte with three of those losses coming by at least 14 points. Believe it or not, La Tech has been favored in half of its games so far. But never by THIS MUCH, not even when they hosted a FCS opponent (SE Louisiana) early in the season. They only won that game by three points and their average MOV when favored this season is just +0.2 PPG. This C-USA rivalry has a history of upset, at least recently, with the dog going 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings including five outright upsets! Last week saw USM head coach Will Hall dip into his “bag of tricks” and start Frank Gore Jr at QB. Gore is a running back and not even listed on the QB depth chart. If Hall tries that again, Louisiana Tech will obviously not be caught as off-guard as UTSA was. But the Golden Eagles may have found something with Gore under center. The La Tech defense gave up 548 yards last week to Charlotte. The Bulldogs’ three wins this year have been by a TOTAL of 20 points. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against ANYBODY. 10* Southern |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47 | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points. So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): For many years, Northern Illinois was a force in the MAC. But the first two years under HC Thomas Hammock were a real struggle in DeKalb, including a disastrous 0-6 (SU) 2020 season. But the Huskies have rebounded this year to go 7-3 SU and lead the West Division with two weeks to go. This is pretty clearly NOT something that was expected as NIU has been favored in only two games all season and one of those was against FCS Maine! Their last two wins have each been by a single point (30-29 over Ball St and 39-38 over C Mich). I smell an “upset” cooking Weds night. Now judging by the line, a Buffalo win here wouldn't be much of an “upset” at all. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on. After winning the MAC East LY, Buffalo has had a trying 2021 season due to former HC Lance Leipold bolting for Kansas after spring football. But the Bulls were able to get to 4-4 SU before suffering bad losses to Bowling Green (56-44) and Miami (45-18) the L2 weeks. Still, they’ve got a shot at bowl eligibility, but must now win out. The fact UB is averaging 36.4 PPG at home is a promising sign as is their 12-3-1 ATS run when priced as a home underdog. Northern Illinois had beaten Buffalo 12 straight times. But then came last year when the Bulls won in blowout fashion, 49-30 as 13-point favorites. I can’t stress just how lucky NIU has been so far in 2021. They have THREE one-point victories and FOUR by two points or less. Despite the 7-3 SU record, they’ve been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. The one time they were favored in MAC play, the Huskies failed to cover. Buffalo actually has a positive point differential this year. Despite what the WL records may say, this shouldn’t be considered an “upset” when the Bulls win. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Under Bowling Green/Miami (8:00 ET): Bowling Green games have followed an “odd” pattern in 2021. The first five games all went Under. At that point, the Falcons were also a perfect 5-0 ATS with a shocking upset win over Minnesota. But I then chose to go with the Over when they hosted Akron and that hit, starting what is now a streak of five straight Overs. BGSU has won just once in conference play. That was two weeks ago at Buffalo, 56-49, a game where they were 13.5-point dogs. Last week saw them lose 49-17 at home to Toledo, a spot where I successfully faded them as 10.5-point underdogs. Miami needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Assuming they win here (they are large favorites), that would set up a showdown next week with Kent State to determine the winner of the MAC East. So there’s still a lot for the RedHawks to be playing for at this juncture. The team is 4-0 SU here in Oxford this season after it thumped Buffalo 45-18 (as seven-point favorites) last week. The RedHawks have three losses by five points or less this year, so a case can be made that they are better than their record. While I don’t feel like laying the big number here, the chances of Bowling Green scoring a lot of points in this game seem remote. The Falcons were held under 200 total yards last week by Toledo. Take away that outlier effort against Buffalo two weeks ago and they haven’t scored more than 26 against any FBS opponent all season. Miami’s defense allows just 18.7 PPG at home and Ohio is the only opponent since the start of October to score more than 21 pts against them. I also don’t see the RedHawks coming close to matching their own point total from last week. The Under is 7-1 for Miami the L8 times they’ve been off a game where they scored 40+ points. 8* Under Bowling Green/Miami |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET): I’m a little shocked by this spread. I have these teams rated pretty even in my own power rankings, so after factoring in that the game takes place in Ypsilanti, Eastern Michigan ought to be favored. Perhaps the number has something to do with the fact the Eagles were upset here at home last Tuesday, 34-26 by Ohio. They were six-point chalk for that game and it was their biggest loss (in terms of margin) in MAC play this season. The only time in 2021 that EMU has lost by more than one score was when they visited Wisconsin very early in the season. I’m taking the points on Tuesday. Western Michigan has failed to cover the number in four of its last five games, including three straight. But all they cared about last week was getting the victory over Akron. That made the Broncos (now 6-4 SU) bowl eligible. However, it was not an impressive win by any means as they were 26-point faves in Kalamazoo and the final score was only 46-40. Over the last five games, Western Michigan’s defense is giving up an average of 38.4 points per contest. Again, it is somewhat shocking to me to see them favored in the spot, let alone by this many points. The home team is on a 10-5 SU run in this all-Michigan MAC rivalry, although LY saw EMU go to Kalamazoo and win 53-42 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now looking to make it three straight upset wins over Western Michigan while also hoping to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home this season. I’ve always been impressed by the job Chris Creighton has done here, turning around what had been a moribund program. Western Michigan has been a major disappointment in 2021, save for the win over Pitt, and gives up too many points to be favored like this on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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11-16-21 | Toledo -7 v. Ohio | Top | 35-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): One of the most impressive streaks in ALL of College Football has to be Ohio having not lost a MAC game by more than seven points since 2015! That streak continued last week when the Bobcats went on the road and upset Eastern Michigan, 34-26 as six-point underdogs. It was their second straight upset win as two weeks ago, right here in Peden Stadium, they beat rival Miami 35-33 as a seven-point dog. But despite the B2B upsets, it’s been a tough 1st year under Tim Albin in Athens. Ohio is just 3-7 SU and has no shot at bowl eligibility. Toledo, on the other hand, needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. With lowly Akron on the docket for next week, getting to six wins shouldn’t be a problem. But we’ve seen in the past how 6-win MAC teams have been left out of the postseason. So the Rockets are definitely going to want to handle their business tonight, just as they did last Wednesday when they blew out Bowling Green (on the road) 49-17 as 10.5-point chalk. That was their second straight game scoring 49 points. I laid the points with the Rockets @ BG and will do so again here. While it’s been six years since Ohio last lost a conference game by more than seven points, I think that streak is due to end. This Ohio team is just not as strong as it was for so many years under Frank Solich. These teams don’t play very often, with only two meetings since 2010. The Bobcats won both, so you have to figure Toledo HC Jason Candle will be hungry for his first win against this opponent. The Rockets have covered six of their last seven road games. Four of their five losses this season have been by a combined 11 points, so the SU record could be MUCH better. I like that the offense has gained over 1200 yards the L2 weeks and the defense (which allows just 18.8 PPG on the road) gives up only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. 8* Toledo |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season. Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets |
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11-13-21 | TCU +12.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
8* TCU (8:00 ET): It is my view that Oklahoma State has drastically overachieved here in 2021. But there’s no denying the Pokes looked rather impressive last week in a 24-3 win at Morgantown (West Virginia). They held the Mountaineers not only out of the end zone, but to just 133 yards total! Still though, my power ratings are a little less bullish on them than are the pollsters. The fact they’ve covered the spread in seven consecutive games should tell you that the oddsmakers have also underestimated the Cowboys. But now we get them laying double digits for just the second time in Big 12 action. TCU also was impressive last week in pulling a 30-28 upset of #12 Baylor. It was an emotional win for the Horned Frogs in their first game without long-time HC Gary Patterson. The school’s decision to part ways with Patterson (said to be “mutual”) is still a bit shocking to me, but if last week was any indication, the team seems to be a bit inspired. Making his first career start, TCU QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards on a defense that had been fairly stingy for most of this season. TCU joins Oklahoma State as the only teams to defeat Baylor in 2021. Their attention now turns to trying to win two of their final three games (in order to become bowl eligible). The only other time that OSU was asked to lay double digits in a conference game was when they faced Kansas. The Jayhawks are so far below the rest of the Big 12 that they don’t even really “count.” What we do know is that the Cowboys have had numerous come from behind victories this year with the last two weeks marking their only wins by more than 10 points. I’m definitely grabbing the points here as TCU played inspired ball last week and the underdog has covered in each of the previous six TCU-OK State meetings. 8* TCU |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
9* Over Arizona State/Washington (7:00 ET): There are some streaks on the line in this one. If you can believe this, Arizona State has covered the spread every time in the L10 meetings with Washington. The Sun Devils have won eight of those games straight up, though they did lose the last one, 27-20 as an 18.5-point pup back in 2018. But I will instead be focusing on UW’s 5-0 Under run coming into this game. That’s resulted in a VERY low total for this week and I’m choosing to go Over here. There is some controversy here on the Washington sideline as they will be without HC Jimmy Lake, who has been suspended for a week due to an altercation with a player last week. That 26-16 loss to Oregon also cost OC John Donovan his job and it’s easy to see why as the Huskies gained just 166 total yards. But I expect the home team to play hard for its interim coach this week and even have some surprising success on the offensive side of the ball. It won’t take much to help send this one Over. Before holding USC to just 16 points last week, ASU had given up 69 points in its previous two games. While the Sun Devils aren’t likely to give up 30+ this week, we don’t need them to. I say that because last week, they gained 427 yards on offense, 282 of those coming on the road. This is an offense that would have a lot more points to its name if not for eight turnovers the last two games. They have averaged more than 400 YPG the last three weeks. Five of the Sun Devils’ last six games have seen 47+ total points scored. 9* Over Arizona State/Washington |
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11-13-21 | Maryland +13 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
10* Maryland (4:00 ET): Outside of games where I have made a wager, I rarely have a “rooting” interest. But with all due respect to those in East Lansing, I was smirking a bit when Michigan State suffered its first loss of the season last week, 40-29 at Purdue. In no way, shape or form did I believe that the Spartans were actually the third best team in the country. My own power ratings don’t have them in the Top 20. Sparty has caught some fortunate breaks in 2021, specifically the Michigan game, which was one of three wins by five points or fewer this season. With them coming off their 1st loss, I’ll fade. Now Maryland would seem to need all the points they can get. The Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and suffered four blowout losses during this stretch. They did defeat Indiana 38-35 as a 3.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Last week was a 31-14 loss to Penn State in College Park. It should be pointed out that the Terps’ last four losses were all to ranked teams. I obviously realize that MSU is also a “ranked team,” but I also think they are more vulnerable than most recent Maryland opponents. It’s not just that Michigan State is off its first loss, they also have their biggest game of the year (at Ohio State) on deck next week. So it’s a classic sandwich game. Maryland is not ready to “throw in the towel” by any means as they’re still trying to become bowl eligible (need one more win). They’ve got QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big 10 in passing yards and completion percentage. The MSU defense just gave up 536 yards passing last week. Sparty is also 3-11 ATS as a double digit favorite (four outright losses) since 2018. Take the points here. 10* Maryland |
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11-13-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Troy OVER 48 | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy (3:30 ET): So I tried the Over with ULL last Thursday and was unsuccessful. Really, it was never close as the Ragin Cajuns had to come from behind to defeat Georgia State (at home) 21-17. The total was 53.5. But this offense is averaging quite a bit of yardage for a team that’s gone Under in five straight. The last three games in particular have seen Louisiana move the ball effectively (467 YPG). This is the lowest O/U line of the season for the Sun Belt leaders. Looking to remain perfect in conference play, ULL travels to Troy this week. Their hosts have averaged more than 29 PPG in the L4 games, so they can score. Troy’s last three games have all gone Over and this is one of their lowest O/U lines of the season. It’s not THE lowest (as it is with ULL), but it’s poised to close as the 2nd lowest, only ahead of a 43-point total when they traveled to face South Carolina. The Trojans’ offense should benefit from the fact Louisiana’s defense gives up 25.8 PPG on the road, nearly double what they allow at home. Louisiana turned it over on downs - twice - inside the Georgia State 10-yard line last week, so they easily could have scored more points. Troy put up all 31 of its points last week in the first half, so they can definitely score in bunches. The total the last time these teams met (2019) was 74.5! So it’s far cry from that, two seasons later. I just think it’s time for an Over to hit in a ULL game and the Over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five games vs. teams that have winning records. 9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy |
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11-13-21 | Southern Miss +33 v. UTSA | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
9* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): So at 1-8 SU, the Golden Eagles are obviously having a terrible season. Perhaps even more embarrassing is their 1-8 ATS record. The Golden Eagles have now failed to cover seven in a row - also 0-7 SU - since picking up their lone win of the season (37-0 against FCS Grambling). But they did have an early 14-0 lead last week against North Texas. Not covering there was pretty brutal, though I’m saying that as someone who took the points. Could it finally be Southern Miss’ time to cash a ticket this week? This matchup with #23 UTSA reminds me a lot of a winning bet I had last week with Missouri (plus the points) against Georgia. Like Southern Miss here, Mizzou was on a ridiculous ATS losing skid (8 games!) and getting a ton of points (almost 40!). They finally picked up a cover despite losing 43-6. Now Southern Miss isn’t getting quite as many points as Mizzou was. But UTSA also isn’t Georgia. The Roadrunners are undefeated (9-0 SU), but that’s where the comparisons with UGA end. This is very much unprecedented territory for the UTSA program. They are off a big win over what had been a hot UTEP team and have a big home game vs. UAB on deck. The Roadrunners could certainly be excused for “overlooking” Southern Miss. I think they will, at least enough for the underdogs to stay within the number. UTSA has been a covering machine in 2021 (8-1 ATS), but this is obviously the largest spread they’ve faced all season. 9* Southern Miss |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -111 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): #5 Cincinnati is very much in play to become the first non P5 school to make the College Football Playoff. Now in order to make the CFP, they obviously need to handle their own business (i.e. win out) and earn some “style points'' along the way. If they do that and (at least) one of the three one-loss teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon & Ohio State) loses again, then the Bearcats just might end up in the top four. But after a few close calls (against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa) they could desperately use a “blowout win” in front of a national TV audience here. I believe this Friday’s game against USF (on ESPN2) affords the Bearcats the perfect opportunity to deliver just the kind of win they need. USF is not a good team. The Bulls come into Friday with a 2-7 SU record and that’s after going 1-8 SU last season. Over the last 22 games, they have just ONE win against a FBS opponent and that was Temple back on Oct 23rd. That win also snapped a 13-game losing streak in conference play. Now clearly I’m taking the SU result of this game for granted. It boils down to whether or not Cincy can win by more than three scores. The three top teams that USF has faced thus far - NC State, Florida and SMU - have all beaten the Bulls by 22 or more points. Cincy is obviously the highest ranked USF opponent to date. So, yes, I do believe the Bearcats will win big. I know each of the last three games have been competitive going into the 4Q. I even took Tulane plus the points a few weeks ago. But USF is the weakest opponent that Cincy will have faced in a LONG time. Given the questioning of their current ranking, the Bearcats can ill-afford yet another close call. They are 6-0 ATS their L6 Friday games including a 52-3 win over Temple earlier this season where I laid the points and got the cover. USF just allowed a season-high 54 points last week. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami |
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11-10-21 | Kent State v. Central Michigan UNDER 75.5 | Top | 30-54 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan (8:00 ET): Kent State is coming off a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois, a game where both teams gained more than 660 total yards. Then you’ve got Central Michigan, who is off a 42-30 win at Western Michigan. Looking at those two scores and deciding to go with the Under here may seem a bit crazy, but there were things that happened in last week’s games that aren’t about to be repeated. This is also a very high O/U line, the highest for either team this season. Kent State, who leads the MAC East with a 4-1 SU conference record, used a 31-point second quarter to defeat Northern Illinois last week. They were actually behind 7-0 after the first. But then came big play after big play. None of the Golden Flashes’ five scoring drives in the 2Q lasted longer than 75 seconds. That is insane. A team that averages only 19.6 PPG on the road isn’t about to do that again this week. They are facing a defense that allows just 22.3 PPG at home this season. The difference in Central Michigan’s 42-30 win last week was the Chippewas returning TWO punts for touchdowns. Just like Kent State’s second quarter performance from last week, multiple special teams touchdowns is not something you can expect on a week by week basis. The Chips have played two straight high scoring games, but before that none of their games this season had seen more than 70 total points scored. Similarly, the Over is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but none of the last four have seen more than 65 total points scored. Take advantage of an inflated number here. 8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan |
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11-10-21 | Toledo -10.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 49-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
10* Toledo (7:00 ET): Toledo outgained Eastern Michigan 672-490 last week, but turned the ball over three times and thus lost the game 52-49 as nine-point favorites. Each of the last three times the Rockets have been favored, they have lost the game on the field. They have four outright losses as chalk this season, leaving them at 4-5 SU overall, which has to be considered a massive disappointment. But I like them to get back on track tonight against an opponent they have historically dominated. Lay the points. The most shocking thing about last week’s loss is how many points (52) and yards (490) Toledo allowed. They came into the contest vs. Eastern Michigan with the MAC’s top scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and were second in fewest yards allowed (326.9) per game. Now I did take the Over (easy winner), noting EMU is one of the MAC’s better offensive teams. But the same cannot be said for this week’s opponent, Bowling Green, The Falcons are just 3-6 SU overall and averaging 23.6 PPG. Now BG is off a 56-44 upset of Buffalo last week where they were 14.5 point underdogs. But the Falcons were actually outgained 499-484 and had 25 fewer first downs! While 7-2 ATS, last week was just the third win for Bowling Green this season. It was their first win in conference play and only the second against a FBS opponent. As I alluded to above, Toledo has had BG’s number in the past. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings including 38-3 last season. I look for the road favorite to assert its dominance in this one. 10* Toledo |
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11-09-21 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Tuesday game for both Ohio and Eastern Michigan. Last week, both were underdogs and won their games outright in high scoring fashion. Ohio, at home, beat rival Miami 35-33 as seven point dogs. They were outgained 569-413. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan went on the road and upset Toledo 52-49 as a nine-point dog. The Eagles were outgained 672-490. But in both instances, I did not care about the total yardage battle or even who won. That’s because I had the Over in both games. It ended up being a 2-0 night for me. Last week I shared with you some rather shocking information: it has been over six years since Ohio lost a MAC game by more than seven points! But Frank Solich’s surprising retirement still looms large over this team, which is just 2-7 SU with no shot at bowl eligibility. I know that the Bobcats have been mostly “snake bitten” under Tim Albin (Solich’s replacement) in 2021 with three losses by a total of six points. But it’s probably “high time” that they lose by more than seven points in conference play. As mentioned last week, the Ohio defense is one of the worst in the country at stopping the run (204 YPG allowed) and gives up 31.3 PPG as well. Clearly, EMU has some “work” to do at the defensive end as well. But the offense can certainly put up points as is evident by the fact they’ve now put up 50+ in B2B games. What they did last week against the MAC’s top scoring defense was very impressive. The Eagles are now bowl eligible following last week’s win, but there’s no guarantee a six-win MAC team gets invited to play a postseason game. So they’re going to be looking for a strong finish to the regular season. Winning the West Division is not out of the question. My power ratings say this should be a double digit spread. 8* Eastern Michigan |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10. They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver |
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11-06-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 34 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): Oklahoma State had its easiest game of the season last week as they beat Kansas 55-3. But it can’t be discounted just how “dangerously” the Cowboys have been living most of this 2021 season. There have been two games (Texas & Boise State) where the Pokes won after trailing by at least 13 points. They also trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4Q and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State for a seven-point win in Stillwater. All the close calls finally caught up with OSU against Iowa State, where they lost 24-21, the week before blowing out Kansas. This week finds Mike Gundy’s team traveling to Morgantown, WV, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire Big 12. The Mountaineers will be looking to pull off a third consecutive upset here as the last two games have seen them defeat TCU as a 4.5-point road dog and then Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog. Though just 4-4 SU on the season, the Mountaineers could have a MUCH better record as three losses have been by six points or less, including two by just a field goal. While pulling three consecutive upsets might seem like a tough “ask” from WVU, take note that Oklahoma State is an extremely fortunate 6-0 ATS L6 games. OSU is #11 in the initial CFP rankings, but oddsmakers have a less favorable view and so do my own personal power ratings. Bank on the home team having plenty of motivation Saturday afternoon as they have lost six straight times to the Pokes (0-5-1 ATS). The last two weeks have seen WVU average 490 YPG. 8* West Virginia |
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11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +4 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 34 m | Show |
8* Wyoming (3:30 ET): The annual “Border War” is renewed Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Colorado State owns the all-time series edge, but it had been Wyoming that had won four in a row - before last year. CSU picked up its ONLY win of the 2020 season (played just four games) when it beat the Cowboys 34-24 as a three-point home underdog. But now they have to win at a place where they have not prevailed since 2015. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring game (just look at the total), taking the points seems like the way to go. Also, Wyoming (because they are 0-5 ATS L5 games) seems undervalued. Wyoming started the season 4-0. Now three of those wins were close calls (decided by 7 points or less), one of them against UConn, which would have been a VERY embarrassing loss. Turns out the Cowboys haven’t won since that near embarrassment. It’s a four-game SU losing streak with one of the defeats coming to lowly New Mexico here at home by a score of 14-3. The Pokes have actually outgained their last three opponents (combined) yet are somehow winless. Being -9 in turnovers hasn’t helped. Despite the four-game losing streak, my power ratings still say the home team should be favored here! Colorado State’s season started very poorly as they opened 0-2 with the losses coming to FCS South Dakota State and lowly Vanderbilt. Then things began to turn around in Fort Collins. The Rams covered four straight and were 3-1 SU. The lone loss was at Iowa! But the L2 weeks have brought a couple painful defeats, 26-24 at Utah State and 28-19 at home vs. Boise State. The Rams blew a 13-0 lead last week in a game their fanbase really thought they were going to win. I sense they’ll be deflated this week and that’s tough when hitting the road. Wyoming will be desperate for its first MWC win. 8* Wyoming |
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11-06-21 | North Texas v. Southern Miss +5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 6 m | Show |
8* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): Kind of an “off the radar” game to go with here, but whenever I see a 2-6 team (like North Texas) laying points on the ROAD, my eyes always “light up.” Now Southern Miss is no Alabama. The Golden Eagles are 1-7 and that lone SU victory came against Grambling, a FCS school. The Golden Eagles have lost six straight games, five of them by double digits. But this is probably their last shot at a win this season. I think they’ll come out motivated. Take the points. Now until last week, North Texas had also not beaten a single FBS team in 2021. The Mean Green had lost six in a row, four by double digits, since defeating Northwestern State 44-14 all the way back in the season opener. But then they beat Rice 30-24 last week as a 1-point underdog. In case you were somehow unaware, Rice is not a good team. It took OT for the Mean Green to get that first FBS victory and they were actually outgained for the game. Expecting them to win B2B games seems like a “tall order,” no? Now I’m obviously aware of the fact that Southern Miss has not scored 20 points against any FBS opponent this year. That’s not good! But they do only give up 20.3 PPG at home! The North Texas defense, as you might expect, is pretty bad. The Mean Green allow 33.6 PPG and have allowed less than 35 to just two FBS teams. Southern Miss had five turnovers last week in a 35-10 loss to Middle Tennessee. Take better care of the football here and they can at least stay within the number. USM has beaten N Texas each of the last two years - by a combined 28 points! 8* Southern Miss |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State (3:00 ET): So UL Monroe has seen the Over hit in each of its last five games, three of which have seen the Warhawks surrender 55 or more points themselves. But this week they are up against a Texas State team that just got shutout last week 45-0 (by Louisiana). Texas State barely even mustered 200 total yards in the contest. Now it’s obviously a big change from facing one of the top Sun Belt defenses to one of the worst. But I do not think the Bobcats are capable of putting enough points on the board to get this game Over the total. Case in point, the week before facing Louisiana, Texas State put up only 16 points in a loss to Georgia State. They come in averaging only 21.9 PPG for the year, which ranks 110th in the FBS. They are 109th in yards per game, so at least they're consistent. Over the last two games, they’ve found the end zone only one time. The good news is that the Bobcats’ defense gets a bit of a respite this week. UL Monroe comes in averaging only 22.3 PPG and that number drops to a rather sad 14.7 when playing on the road (as they are here). So, in sum, while neither teams’ defense is very good, the respective offenses may in fact be worse. Something else I noticed is that this is set to be the highest O/U line for any game this season involving UL Monroe, the team that has gone Over five straight times. Five of Texas State’s games have seen less than 60 total points scored. None of the previous three meetings has there been more than 45 total points scored. The Under is 7-3 when UL Monroe is off an ATS loss. 10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State |
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11-06-21 | Missouri +38 v. Georgia | Top | 6-43 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Incredibly, Mizzou has failed to cover 10 straight games. This ATS losing streak goes all the way back to the end of last season. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in 2021. But, believe it or not, I have been waiting very patiently to bet on them again. Now it (obviously) didn’t work out the last time I did so. That was three weeks ago at home vs. Texas A&M when they lost 35-14 as 11-point underdogs. That is the only time in their last four games that the Tigers have been an underdog. This week certainly puts their “inability” to cover the pointspread to the test as they are getting almost FORTY points against #1 Georgia. It just so happens that Missouri’s 0-10 ATS run began with a 49-14 loss last year to UGA. They were 14-point home underdogs in that particular meeting. I think this is a GREAT time to take a Mizzou team that has been favored to win more than half of its games this season. The only other time this year that the Tigers were double digit dogs was the game vs. A&M. This is just a ton of points, a perfect time for a team that’s beyond “due” to cover a pointspread. Now obviously Georgia is very good. But coming off a four-game stretch where they faced Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all ranked teams), doesn’t it just FEEL like this is going to be a classic “letdown” spot? Especially coming on the heels of being ranked #1 in the initial CFP rankings? This is more points than UGA laid to VANDERBILT, which was a road game, but still. Only two Georgia wins this year (UAB, Vandy) were by more than 37 points. I don’t think this one will be the third. 8* Missouri |
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11-06-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota OVER 44 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Illinois/Minnesota (12:00 ET): There’s a number of teams in College Football that are currently one somewhat improbable streaks. Illinois has gone Under in seven straight games, a run that goes all the way back to the start of September. The only Fighting Illini game this season to go Over the total was the second one, a 37-30 loss to UTSA (who’s still unbeaten, mind you). The opener, which saw Brett Bielema’s team pull a 30-22 upset over Nebraska, pushed. The most “infamous” Illini Under of the bunch came two weeks ago when, despite NINE overtimes, they and Penn State combined for just 38 points. Now, it wasn’t always this way. The Illini’s first three games of the season did average a pretty hefty 58.3 PPG. But it was the start of Big 10 play that brought the downturn in scoring. When facing a conference opponent, Illinois’ games have averaged only 34.5 PPG! That doesn’t include a 24-14 win over Charlotte on Oct 2. Now it should be pointed out that the Fighting Illini have not been facing the top offensive teams from the Big 10. But this week they are taking on a team that has averaged 35 points (by itself) over the L3 games. I have no unearthly idea how Minnesota lost 14-10 to Bowling Green on Sept 25th. What I do know is that the Golden Gophers haven’t lost since. Their only loss besides Bowling Green was the season opener against Ohio State. They scored 41 last week against Northwestern (not easy to do). Now the Gophers did just lose ANOTHER running back (Bryce Williams) to what looks to be a season-ending injury. However, I’m not at all concerned about that. Why? Because the team has had FIVE different RBs go for 100+ yards in a game in 2021! The L2 weeks have seen two freshmen - Thomas and Irving - both go over 100 yards in each game. Illinois’ Under streak ends here. 8* Over Illinois/Minnesota |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 53.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Louisiana is the “forgotten team” in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns came into the season ranked #23 in the country. They lost their first game, 38-18, to a Texas team that was also ranked (#21) at the time. Since then, Billy Napier’s team has taken care of business by winning seven in a row, the most impressive victory being a 41-13 thrashing of Appalachian State here in Lafayette. That’s the only time since the Texas loss where the Cajuns have been underdogs. They also roll into Thursday on a five-game Under streak having just blanked Texas State 45-0 on Saturday. Georgia State is 4-4 SU and a double-digit underdog here, but could provide a “test” to their hosts on Thursday night. The Panthers are on a three-game win streak, having defeated LA Monroe, Texas State and rival Georgia Southern all by a TD or more. Two of those wins came on the road. But what is interesting about this Panthers team is that despite a low-scoring 21-14 win last week at Ga Southern, their road games have been significantly higher scoring this season. Four road games have averaged 61.3 total PPG and that number was obviously much higher before LW’s win. Interestingly enough, though it was a low-scoring final, Ga Southern and Georgia State did combine for more than 850 yards of total offense. The Georgia State defense was exceptionally lucky to force THREE turnovers when backed inside the red zone, two interceptions and a goal line stand. A Louisiana offense that puts up 40.5 PPG at home will not be easy to stop and the good fortune GSU’s defense had last week is not likely to repeat itself here. I know that the Ragin Cajuns have a good defense, but they are facing a team that has put up 482.7 YPG the last 3 weeks! The last two meetings have seen these teams combine for 58 and 65 total points. 10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo (7:30 ET): If it’s November, that means it’s time for some good ol’ “MAC-tion” and I’m anticipating a pretty high scoring game here between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Visiting EMU comes in with the better overall record (5-3 vs. 4-4 SU), however both are 2-2 SU in conference play and Toledo is a decided favorite at the Glass Bowl. Both teams are chasing Northern Illinois, who at 4-0 SU in conference play is the only undefeated team in the entire MAC. It may seem strange to expect a “high-scoring game” with Toledo involved. The Rockets have seen their last six games all stay Under the total. The O/U lines have been pretty consistent, ranging from 51 to 58.5. Three of the previous four games have seen between 49 and 52 total points scored, so there have been some close calls. In their last game, Toledo put up 34 points in a win over Western Michigan. That was their most points scored in a game excluding UMass or an FCS opponent (Norfolk State). The Over is 6-1 the L7 times hosting EMU and LY in Ypsilanti, the Rockets scored 45 points. The Toledo defense has been surprisingly stout for a .500 team. They are allowing just 18.3 PPG. But the Rockets’ stop unit will be tested by an Eastern Michigan offense that comes in averaging 32.8 PPG (2nd most in the MAC). The Eagles have gone over 30 points in five of their eight games this season. Last time out, they put up 55 in a win over Bowling Green. The key was a mid-season change at QB to Ben Bryant, who leads the conference in passer rating. Toledo also made a change under center a couple weeks ago and they’ve been better (on the offensive end) since then. The Over is due to hit for the home team. 10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 52 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Miami/Ohio (7:30 ET): The 97th edition of the “Battle of the Bricks” will have a decidedly different “feel” this season as it will mark the first time since 2004 that Frank Solich is not patrolling the sidelines for Ohio. The legendary coach made a surprise retirement this past offseason and that has led to a real downturn in Athens. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU (one win was against Akron) and headed for their worst season in two decades. However, there is one pretty incredible streak still alive at Ohio: It’s been six years since they lost a MAC game by more than seven points. This year’s three conference losses have been by a combined 11 points. Over the L5 seasons, the Bobcats have 10 MAC losses by 3 pts or less! Miami is in much better “form” coming into Tuesday’s rivalry game having won three of its last four. The one loss came by a single point, 13-12 at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are coming off a 24-17 upset win at Ball State that leaves them tied with Kent State atop the MAC East. That was their 1st road win of the season as 2021 got underway with a brutal three-game road trip through Cincinnati, Minnesota & Army. Four of Miami’s last five games have gone Under, the exception being a 34-21 win over Akron. Ohio’s last five games have all stayed Under, but I’m calling for a reversal of the trend here. This O/U line is definitely on the “low” end for both teams. The O/U line for Ohio’s last game was 68.5. The only game with a lower O/U line than this one came against Northwestern, who held them to six points. Miami’s defense is not going to do that. But at the same time, Ohio’s run defense is one of the worst in the entire country (220 YPG allowed) and they allow 31.1 PPG. 8* Over Miami/Ohio |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England |
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10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina |
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10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5 | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 94 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory. San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears. Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears |
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10-30-21 | Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 61 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
9* Under Penn State/Ohio State (7:30 ET): Admittedly, I’m taking a risk betting on the #1 scoring offense in the country (49.3 PPG) being in a game that stays Under the total. But the team Ohio State is facing here could only manage 18 points in a game that went NINE overtimes last week! In conference play, Penn State is averaging only 19.5 points per game. So I don’t think we have to worry about them scoring many points Saturday night in Columbus. The deciding factor is that the Nittany Lions defense is quite good (14.7 PPG allowed) and can be the first to hold the Buckeyes in check here in 2021. The last two games have seen Penn State fail to break 300 total yards. This despite starting QB Sean Clifford (got injured against Iowa) returning to the lineup last week. The Nittany Lions seemingly can’t run the ball (100th in FBS in rush yards per game) and it’s not like they’re going to do much of that here anyway as they figure to be trailing throughout. Clifford could only complete 19 of 34 passes against Illinois for 165 yards. He was also sacked four times. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games. Now the Ohio State offense has topped 50 in each of those same four games. But this is the best defense they’ve faced all season. Penn State is #15 in the country against the pass, holding teams to just 178 YPG through the air. The Buckeyes aren’t going to score 50+ every week. Even if they hit 40 this week, which I concede is possible, that does not necessarily mean this game is going to go Over. The Buckeyes allowed just 128 total yards against Indiana last week. So I really can’t stress how little scoring PSU is likely to do in this game. While the O/U line is right in line with most Ohio State games this year, it’s a season high for Penn State. 9* Under Penn State/Ohio State |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson -9 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
10* Clemson (3:30 ET): We all know about that definition of the word “insanity.” Something about “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Well, for the third week in a row, I’m taking Clemson. This despite losing with them the previous two times. The Tigers are now 0-7 ATS, tied with Missouri for the worst such record in the country. Last week saw Dabo Swinney’s team installed as an underdog for the first time since the National Championship Game (vs. LSU) at the end of the 2019 season. It was also the first time they’d been a ‘dog in ACC play since 2016! I thought that was the ultimate “buy low” spot, but it turns out they lost 27-17 as 3.5 point underdogs. This week finds Clemson back in the familiar role of favorite, facing Florida State. They have dominated the Seminoles in recent years. In the last two meetings, the Tigers were favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points. They won those games by 31 and 49. It should not shock you to find that the line is much shorter this time. I know that Clemson has really struggled to score this season, but here they are facing a defense that has given up 25+ points in every game when not facing UMass or Jacksonville State. Four times the Seminoles have allowed 30 or more. Clemson did allow 27 points last week to Pitt, which was a season-worst when excluding OT. But the Pitt offense is one of the best in the country. The same cannot be said for Florida State’s. The ‘Noles have not scored more than 14 points in any of the L3 meetings with Clemson and won’t here. My own power ratings are calling for this spread to be north of two touchdowns, so there is VALUE on the favorite here. I’m not “insane!” At long last, the Tigers end their ATS losing streak. 10* Clemson |
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10-30-21 | Boston College +6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 6-21 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 10 m | Show |
8* Boston College (3:30 ET): What in the world is going on in upstate New York? Syracuse has covered six straight games, giving them the longest ATS win streak in the country. The underdog role has suited them well as they were getting points in all but one of those games (when they faced FCS Albany). But the Orange can no longer rely on the oddsmakers to get them “over the hump” this week. That’s because for the first time in their last 22 games vs. FBS competition, they find themselves favored! Ironically enough, the last time the ‘Cuse was favored to defeat an FBS foe was against the very opponent they are matched up with this week. Boston College comes to the Carrier Dome on a three-game losing streak. But before opening ACC play at 0-3, the Eagles were flying high with a 4-0 start. I took them (and cashed) when they beat Missouri, which is the last time they won a game. By the way, that last time Syracuse was favored? BC smoked them 58-27 as three-point pups. I’m not saying things will turn out quite that lopsided this weekend. But I do believe it is an opportune time to fade Syracuse. All of the Orange’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Now they are laying points for the first time in two years. Last week, they needed to come back from a nine-point deficit in the 4Q to beat Va Tech 41-36. They led for less than five minutes. I know that BC is struggling on third downs due to playing with a backup QB. But they should be able to move the ball on a Syracuse defense that gave up 260 yards rushing last week. The three straight losses are a first under HC Jeff Haley. Take the points. 8* Boston College |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +26.5 | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
8* Tulane (12:00 ET): The pressure continues to mount on Cincinnati, who is ranked #2 in the current AP Poll and MUST finish the regular season unbeaten to have ANY chance of being the first “Group of 5” team to crack the College Football Playoff. Last week saw the Bearcats narrowly escape a bad Navy team, winning just 27-20 despite 29-point favorites. Though they led the entire way, Cincy was actually outgained in the contest 308-271. That marked a season-low in total yardage. This week Cincy is on the road again to face Tulane. The line is in the same “neighborhood” as last week, despite the Bearcats’ poor performance and the fact I’ve got Tulane rated several points higher than Navy. Now I know this Green Wave defense can’t stop a nosebleed. But at least they’re a bit more battle-tested after facing another unbeaten team (SMU) last week. Did that game go well? Obviously not. But at least this time Tulane is at home. They’ve faced a tough schedule as Cincinnati will be the fourth team currently ranked in the Top 20 that they’ve taken on this season. This Tulane offense can put up points. They’ve scored at least 21 in every game and average 31.9 PPG. That right there should allow them to stay within the number. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, not just last week, but also in tight wins over Indiana (trailed going into the fourth quarter) and at Notre Dame. Their biggest margin of victory this year away from historic Nippert Stadium is 11 points. With their hosts 0-5 ATS L5 games and being somewhat undervalued, this seems like a good spot to grab a big number. The Green Wave were favored twice during their win streak. 8* Tulane |
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10-30-21 | Miami-FL +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): The Hurricanes treated me so well last week (upset NC State) that I’m going “back to the well” with them again this week. In the analysis for last week, I talked about how Hurricanes HC Manny Diaz was firmly on the “hot seat” after a disappointing 2-4 SU start. Remember that Miami came into the season ranked #14 in the country. The win over NC State was definitely a step in the right direction, however, it doesn’t mean Diaz is off the hook yet. Whether or not they can win again, this time on the road, is a question I’ll leave alone. But I do once again love “The U” getting points. Pitt is the #19 ranked team in the country coming into this week and they are off an impressive 27-17 win over Clemson. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and have covered the spread in each of their last four games. However, the ridiculous offensive numbers we were seeing from them early on in the season have started to cease. They’ve scored “only” 27 and 28 points the L2 weeks. It actually shouldn’t be all that surprising to see Pitt at 6-1 SU given that they’ve been favored in every game so far. My view is that after having beaten the spread by such a substantial margin thus far, the Panthers are “due” for a close game. Miami has definitely had Pitt’s number through the years, going 10-4-1 ATS in the 15 meetings since ‘98. This is just the third time since ‘78 that Pitt has been favored over Miami and the previous two both saw them lose outright! One of those was in 2019 when the ‘Canes came here and won 16-12. Last year’s game was a 31-19 Miami win down in Coral Gables. With two losses decided in the final minute, Miami should have a better SU record. This is just the third time they’ve been a dog in 2021. Under Diaz, they are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. Take the points. 8* Miami FL |
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10-30-21 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET): The Hokies seem to love to grasp defeat from the “jaws of victory.” They have suffered three losses this season by six points or less and all three games were decided in the final minute. Twice (vs. Notre Dame and LW vs. Syracuse) they led with under three minutes to go only to lose the game in the closing seconds. Since starting 2-0 SU/ATS, Va Tech is just 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS. But my own power ratings suggest that they should still be a slight favorite going into this weekend’s matchup with rival Georgia Tech. So I will count on things going right this time and take the points. Georgia Tech also has some “kinks” to work out right now as they enter this game on an 0-3 ATS slide. Their only SU win in that stretch came by four points over Duke. The other two games saw them give up 52 points (at home) to Pitt and then 48 more last week at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets certainly did not have any problems moving the ball LW in Charlottesville (570 total yards), but they also gave 636 total yards on defense. Yikes! They are allowing an average of 568.3 YPG the L3 weeks. So I expect Virginia Tech, who got 151 yards rushing LW from freshman Malachi Thomas, to move the ball in this one. Whomever has been on the road has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success in this particular ACC rivalry. Over the past seven meetings, the visiting team has won outright six times. The underdog had been on a 6-0 ATS run, until last year when the Hokies shut the Yellow Jackets out 45-0 as a six-point favorite. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the better team (Va Tech) here. Georgia Tech is just 1-7 ATS its last eight tries as chalk. 8* Virginia Tech |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Navy/Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has gone Over in five straight games, which immediately caught my eye. Here they are matched up with a Navy team that isn’t very strong offensively (at least compared to years past) but did just hold Cincinnati to 27 points last week. Based on the way Navy plays (lots of running), there figures to be a lower number of possessions than usual for a Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane also got last weekend off, giving them some added time to prepare for the triple option. When these teams met last year in Annapolis (Tulsa was ranked #22 at the time), the final score was just 19-6 (Tulsa won). Last year was a good one for the Golden Hurricane as they finished 6-3 SU with the losses coming to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Mississippi State (bowl). This year’s squad is not nearly as strong. However, the number of points allowed last week to USF (31) was highly misleading. The Bulls got TWO non-offensive touchdowns in the 2Q to build a brief 14-point lead. The Golden Hurricane actually ended up allowing only 268 total yards. Navy’s offense has been pretty pitiful to this point. They average just 280 YPG. The vaunted rushing attack is producing only 3.5 yards per carry. The Midshipmen did have a season-high 116 yards passing last week, but that’s because they fell behind by 17 points and had to throw. Again, I was impressed by the defense holding a top five opponent (that averages 41.1 PPG) to just 27 points and 271 total yards. I predict that this ends up being the lowest scoring game - for both teams - so far this season. 10* Under Navy/Tulsa |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:20 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams collide Thursday night in Glendale as the Cardinals host the Packers. Being that it’s a 7-0 team vs. a 6-1 team, this was thought to be the best TNF game of the season (at least to date). However, there is trouble in the Green Bay camp. There is a chance they could be without their top THREE wide receivers here. Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID-19 list, so they are out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been on IR and missed the L4 games with a hamstring injury. I know GB has Aaron Rodgers, but he can’t catch the ball. Truthfully, even before this ill-timed news broke, I was already looking to fade the Packers this week. They were pretty fortunate to defeat Washington 24-14 last week and cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Football Team turned the ball over THREE times inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the game. That pretty much negated a 430-304 edge in total yards. The loss of Adams would be critical to the Packers’ offense. Leading up to the game, you will probably hear that the team is 6-0 all-time with Adams out of the lineup. That is true. But so is the fact the gap in number of receptions between him and the team’s 2nd leading receiver is the largest between any #1 and #2 WR on any team in the league. I should probably reiterate that Arizona is undefeated! The Cardinals currently have the best scoring differential in the league at +111. That’s significantly better than Green Bay’s +22. My personal power rankings already had this spread north of a touchdown and that was BEFORE the Packers learned about the positive COVID tests. Only one of Arizona’s wins this year has come by fewer than seven points. While Green Bay won’t be quite the “public dog” I’d hoped they’d be, we’re still getting a discount on the home team, even at the current price. 10* Arizona |
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10-28-21 | Troy +18.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
8* Troy (7:30 ET): #24 Coastal Carolina just had its season crumble before its very eyes last week. They suffered their first loss of the season, 30-27 at Appalachian State, which basically ended any hope the Chanticleers had of representing the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six bowl game. You may recall that I took the points with the underdog in that one, noting Appalachian State was easily Coastal’s toughest 2021 opponent to date. There were some other reasons I took the Mountaineers as well. But all you need to know is that Coastal now finds itself in a terrible letdown spot against a team that’s better than you think. Troy is 4-3 (straight up). They’ve only been an underdog twice, at home vs. Liberty and at South Carolina. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by eight and nine points respectively. But they do come into Thursday on a four-game ATS losing streak. They had a terrible game where they lost outright (as a 23.5-pt favorite) to LA Monroe. The last two games have seen the Trojans win by three both times. They deserved the cover against Ga Southern earlier this month as they had a 409-301 edge in total yards. They were a little luckier last week against Texas State (+3 in turnovers), but again gained almost 400 total yards. Troy’s defense is only giving up an average of 19.6 PPG. That should keep them in this one from start to finish. That’s good enough for me when taking this many points. Again, this is the ultimate letdown spot for Coastal Carolina as they had the “bubble burst” last week and can no longer dream of a second straight undefeated regular season. Troy’s offense had a season-high in rush yards (205) vs. Texas State and has scored 10 out of 14 times on its first possession of a half. Coastal’s defense gave up a season-high 575 yards last week. Troy has had four extra days to prepare for this game and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of five points. Take the points. 8* Troy |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 47 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington |
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10-23-21 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:30 ET): “The U” came into the 2021 season with high hopes. They were ranked #14 in the country and opened against (then) #1 Alabama on a neutral field. As you know, that game did not go well for the contingent from Coral Gables. The Hurricanes were slaughtered 44-13. But lots of teams lose badly to Nick Saban. What the Miami fanbase was NOT counting on is three more losses over the next five games, including an 0-2 start in ACC play. At 2-4 SU, HC Manny Diaz is firmly on the “hot seat.” It’s obviously been a “topsy-turvy” season in the Atlantic Coast Conference as Clemson has already lost twice and is unranked. North Carolina, another preseason Top 10 team, is 3-3. The three ranked teams are Wake Forest (#16), Pitt (#23) and NC State (#18). The Wolfpack are 2-0 in conference play thus far and 5-1 SU overall. They’ve beaten Clemson (in overtime) and then last week (off a bye) was maybe their most impressive showing to date as they went to Chestnut Hill and throttled Boston College 33-7 as three-point favorites. This, to me, feels like a “sell high” spot on NC State and a time to “buy low” on Miami. Few would have envisioned, at the start of the season, that the Hurricanes would be getting points in this matchup. They easily could have won each of the L2 games, but missed GW FG against Virginia and then threw an INT in the red zone LW vs. UNC. Previous to last week, NC State had played only one other road game and they lost it, 24-10 to Mississippi State. They were outgained in a 34-27 win over Louisiana Tech (in Raleigh) three weeks ago. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Miami FL |
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10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
9* Clemson (3:30 ET): It is painfully obvious by this point that Clemson does not have much offense. While last week did see them hold on to defeat a scrappy Syracuse team 17-14, they failed to cover (as 12.5-point chalk) and are now 0-6 ATS on the year! Only Missouri and New Mexico (both 0-7 ATS) are worse nationally when it comes to the betting window. I will readily admit that I was wrong to lay the points with the Tigers last Friday at the Carrier Dome. But this looks to be the ultimate “buy low” spot as for the 1st time since the National Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, Clemson is an underdog. Take the points here. Dabo Swinney has not been an underdog in an ACC game since 2016. So this is something truly “out of the ordinary” as his Tigers head to Pitt for the first time ever. Because they’ve already lost two regular season games (first time since 2014), Clemson is out of the polls. But most power ratings, including my own, continue to have respect for them. Earlier I referenced the offensive struggles. But the defense has been great, holding every opponent to 14 points or less in regulation. When you’re favored by double digits - as the Tigers have been in every game but one - that doesn’t guarantee you’re going to cover the spread. But as a dog, that kind of defense is huge. It should also come in handy when facing a Pittsburgh team that came into last week leading the FBS in scoring. But the Panthers were held to “just” 28 points last week at Virginia Tech, a sign they can be kept in check. Something to keep in mind is that Pitt hadn’t exactly faced a slew of great defenses before heading to Blacksburg last weekend. While my power ratings respect the Panthers, calling them the ACC’s 2nd best team, Clemson is still #1 in that regard and I’m taking the points. 9* Clemson |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (3:30 ET): It would be easy to forget that Iowa State began the season ranked in the Top 10. The Cyclones have already lost twice, once to Iowa and the other time to Baylor, and have been out of the Top 25 for a few weeks. Yet Matt Campbell’s team still finds itself favored here, by a touchdown, against a Top 10 opponent. That says something, doesn’t it? Note that in their losses, the Cyclones outgained Iowa 339-173 (but were -4 in turnovers) and Baylor 479-282. I think Oklahoma State is extremely fortunate to be 6-0 as they’ve had to come from behind in half of those wins. I’m laying the points in this Big 12 matchup. OSU may be a Top 10 team according to the pollsters, but I don’t even have them ranked in the Top 25 of my own power ratings. Just like the oddsmakers, I have Iowa State rated higher. Last week, the Cowboys really burned me against Texas, storming back from a two-touchdown deficit in the 1st half to win 32-24. It’s not the first time we’ve seen that from Mike Gundy’s outfit. The Pokes also came back (from a 13-point deficit) to beat Boise State 21-20, trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4th quarter and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State in the opener (only won by 7). All of OSU’s wins have been by 11 points or less and their luck is about to run out here in Ames. The Cowboys’ YTD scoring differential is actually the third lowest EVER for a 6-0 team in the AP Poll era! I don’t see them doing much on offense in this game as they are up against an Iowa State defense that leads the conference in both scoring (16.3 PPG) and yards allowed (251.3). The Cyclones, who have been favored in every game this season, are finally seeing their own offense “spring to life” as RB Breece Hall has had four straight 100+ yard games, including a season-high 197 last week in a 33-20 win at Kansas State. This is the second of B2B road games for OSU and I can’t see them winning both as underdogs. The ranks of the unbeaten are about to get smaller as Iowa State wins by more than a TD. 8* Iowa State |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue (3:00 ET): While Purdue obviously could have cared less, my loss with the Over in their game last week against Iowa was quite frustrating. Give credit where credit is due. The Boilermakers rolled into Iowa City and stomped the #2 ranked team in the country (yeah right!) 24-7 as a double digit underdog. But four turnovers by the Hawkeyes, all of them in Purdue territory, were the reason that game stayed Under. That and the fact there were two missed FGs (one by each side) after long drives and Purdue also fumbled at the goal line. The Boilermakers are now 6-0 Under this season, making them the ONLY team in the country yet to go Over in a single game. That changes this week. You can’t take away what Purdue did offensively last week against a very good Iowa defense. QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 375 yards and WR David Bell hauled in a career-high 240 yards. The Wisconsin defense that the Boilermakers will face this week is good, but not as good as Iowa’s, as evident by the fact the Badgers gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 38 to Michigan. The number of points allowed vs. ND is a bit misleading (non-offensive TDs) but there was nothing phony about the way Michigan put it on them. As I alluded to earlier, Purdue should have scored 30+ points last week against a very good Iowa defense. This is a really low O/U line, the lowest of the season for Purdue. It’s not the lowest of the season for Wisconsin as they played Army last week and the O/U line for that game was 37. The game did NOT go Over (Badgers won 20-14), although I should point out that it was close. Wisconsin’s defense is great against the run, but it has faced two terrible passing teams (Illinois, Army) in a row. They allowed 239+ yards passing in three of the first four games and as we saw last week, the passing game is the strength of this Purdue offense (334 YPG). This one gets Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 41-36 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (12:30 ET): The underdog role always seems to serve Syracuse pretty well. They certainly should be used to it by now. This week marks the 21st consecutive game where they are getting points against a FBS opponent. Getting points is why they are 6-1 ATS this season and have covered five straight times. Each of the Orange’s last four games have been decided by exactly three points. While they’ve won only one of those straight up - a 24-21 upset of Liberty at the Carrier Dome - they’ve covered the spread in all four games. But after suffering three consecutive heartbreaking losses, you have to think a toll has been taken. I think that this week the ‘Cuse is ripe to be beaten and beaten badly. The most recent loss for the Orange came last Friday at home to Clemson. They easily covered the spread (closed +12.5) in that one, but lost (17-14) when they missed a FG in the final minute. The week before saw them lose in OT to Wake Forest, also at home. The week before that saw them lose 33-30 on a last second FG, one that was made by Florida State. What can this team possibly have left in the tank? Making matters more challenging is that the Orange have to leave their beloved Carrier Dome this week. Overall, Virginia Tech was not impressive in a home loss to Pittsburgh last week. But I thought the Hokies’ defense did a good job in holding what was the top scoring team in the country to just 28 points. That worked for me as I bet that game Under. The Hokies’ previous two losses were close games, at West Virginia (stopped on goal line in the final minute) and then at home vs. Notre Dame (GW FG kicked with 17 seconds left). So they could easily be coming into this game at 5-1 SU rather than 3-3.. I just can’t see Justin Fuente (on the hot seat) losing a third straight game in Blacksburg. The Hokies have a much better defense than Syracuse and I would rate them as better on neutral field. So lay the short number at home. 8* Virginia Tech |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): This may seem like a “risky” bet, given how banged up the Browns are on the offensive side of the ball. With it being a short week, backup Case Keenum will be the starting QB and he won’t have either of the team's two main running backs (Hunt, Chubb) to hand the ball off to. Receiver is a question mark as is the offensive line. But Keenum knows HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense from the time the two spent together in Minnesota. This is the first time the Browns have lost two in a row under Stefanski and I just can’t see them losing a third in a row. Not at home against another reeling team. Lay the points. Denver’s 3-0 SU start to the season now seems like a distant memory. It’s critical to keep in mind that those three wins came at the expense of the Giants, Jets & Jaguars, who are a collective 3-15 SU this season. The Broncos have since nosedived with three straight losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), all of which have been by eight points or more. Their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) is far from 100% right now (foot, quad) and the same could be said for a defense which gave up SEVEN plays of 25+ yards to the Raiders last week (most since ‘91) and is down three starting linebackers. Cleveland played a terrible game last week vs. Arizona, but they easily could have been 5-0 going into that game. They blew halftime leads against both the Chiefs and the Chargers. I know this isn’t “the same team” as those first five games, but I think the Browns will be motivated (in front of a National TV audience) to prove their detractors wrong. Denver was tied for the league lead in net upsets (+5) last season, something that typically does NOT carry over to the following year. It’s interesting that they’ve already lost three games as a favorite this season and this is the first time they’ve been an underdog. The number has come down significantly throughout the week to where there’s value on the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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10-21-21 | Tulane +14 v. SMU | Top | 26-55 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tulane (7:30 ET): SMU enters the week as one of the 11 remaining unbeatens in College Football. Over time, you know that number is going to dwindle. This may not be the week that the Ponies suffer their first SU loss, however I definitely am going to fade them and take the points with Tulane. In my own personal power ratings, SMU has the third lowest ranking among the 11 unbeatens. Not only do they fail to crack my Top 25, they barely crack the Top 50! So I definitely think they're being overvalued this week against a Tulane team that is better than most realize. Tulane is just 1-5 SU and has given up a ton of points during an 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak. But the Green Wave have faced some tough competition thus far, including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB and Houston. This is a team that can put points on the board as they average 32.8 PPG, led by QB Michael Pratt. The SMU defense, despite not facing many great offenses so far, has given up an average of 5.7 yards per play. Tulane has been favored in half of its games so far, so you’d expect them to have a better overall record coming into this game. Again, they are going to be a tougher out than most realize, especially for a SMU team that may be looking ahead. The Mustangs still have upcoming road games with Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati (the big one) where their unbeaten record (if still intact) will be put to the test. Their focus may very well be on those games right now. In addition to being a bit of a tricky spot for the favorite, there are some trends that support a play on the underdog here. The road team has covered 11 of the previous 15 meetings between these schools and Tulane is 9-2 ATS coming off a conference loss. SMU, who could barely scrape by Navy in its last game, is just 2-9 ATS off a conference win. Half of the Mustangs wins have been by eight points or less and against Navy they were down by two touchdowns. 10* Tulane |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:30 ET): I have no unearthly idea what happened to Appalachian State last Tuesday when they suffered a humiliating 41-13 defeat at Louisiana. I do know they turned the ball over four times and were 0 for 11 on third down. You’re not going to win many football games doing that. It was a highly uncharacteristic effort from the Mountaineers, whose only other loss this year came by two points at Miami FL. Perhaps last week was a case of “looking ahead” to this game, a showdown with undefeated and reigning Sun Belt Champion Coastal Carolina. Whatever the reason was, I’m calling for ASU to bounce back at home. Take the points. It’s been 13 days since Coastal Carolina last took the field. The 52-20 win over Arkansas State made the Chanticleers the first team in the country to become bowl eligible. But they are obviously interested in far more than just making it to a bowl. This team had an undefeated regular season last year (11-0) before losing to Liberty 37-34 (OT) in the Cure Bowl. Now the Chants are looking to represent the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six Bowl. This will be by far their toughest test to date as so far Coastal has been a two-touchdown favorite in every game. They’ve been favored by 20 or more in all but one game and three times they’ve been favored by 30 or more. You have to remember that Louisiana (who smoked App State last week) is the Sun Belt’s “other good team.” It was a bad loss for the Mountaineers, but not something they can’t overcome. Coming into the season, this is the game they circled as they’ve got revenge for a 34-23 loss in Conway last season. Now the game is in Boone, where ASU has suffered only two losses the L3 years and both were by a field goal. They have not been a home dog since 2017. Coastal came out of NOWHERE in 2020 (were picked to finish 5th in the SBC!) and as a result, I felt their record would regress this season. If they are to lose a regular season game, it would clearly be this one. To this point, the Chanticleers have not faced a team I’d consider to be ranked in the top 100 in the country. App State is on their level, particularly at home. Coming off last week’s shocking loss, this is a great “buy low” spot on the home dog. 8* Appalachian State |
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): I said it in my analysis for the Sunday night game last week, but I’ll repeat it here. The Bills are the best team in the league right now. They have a +108 point differential after going to Kansas City and winning 38-20 as 2.5-point underdogs. No other team in the league (entering Sunday) has a YTD point differential better than +62. Each of their four straight wins have been by at least 18 points. So while the spread seems high for Monday night’s game in Tennessee, I’m laying it. The Titans are 3-2 and will probably win their division. But I don’t think they’re an elite team by any means or even as good as they’ve been the last couple years. Winning the AFC South should not be viewed as any major achievement as it’s the worst division in football. Two of the Titans’ three wins this year have been against division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and they were actually outgained last week by the Jags as the defense gave up nearly 7.0 yards per play to a winless team. Don’t forget the Titans also lost to the Jets. They are certainly not on the Bills’ level. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring and QB Josh Allen should have a field day against a suspect Tennessee defense. For the year, the Titans are being outgained on a per play basis. On offense, they have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and have a banged up WR corps. Last week saw the Bills avenge their loss in LY’s AFC Championship Game. Here the revenge tour continues as they lost 42-16 to Tennessee last season. They remember that and won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. 10* Buffalo |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -180 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -180 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
7* Denver Money Line (4:25 ET): So, uhh, it’s been a rather tumultuous week out in Vegas with now former Raiders HC Jon Gruden resigning in disgrace. The team has to still play a football game this week mind you and to compound matters, the Silver and Black are off B2B losses as they hit the road to face Denver. The Broncos are in a similar situation in that they too have lost two straight following a 3-0 SU start. But they are at home and HC Vic Fangio’s emails are probably pretty nondescript. I look for Denver to be the team that ends its slide and will play them on the money line. There’s really something pretty remarkable with this Broncos team. They were the ONLY team in the league not to be favored a single time last season. Now, in 2021, they have been favored in each of the first six games! I know that their three wins are against the Giants, Jets & Jaguars (who are a combined (2-13 SU), but you can argue (based on the pointspread) that the Broncos have actually underachieved to this point. Now they probably shouldn’t have been favored against the Ravens or at Pittsburgh. But this mess known as the Raiders is a team they should certainly beat. Long time special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is the one left to pick up the pieces in the wake of Gruden’s departure. It’s obviously a very tough situation for someone with no prior NFL HC experience. He takes over an offense that has been really struggling of late with only 23 points scored in the L2 games. The Raiders rank 31st (next to last) in yards per rush. Two of their three wins came in OT, so I view them as being fortunate to even be 3-2 SU. Given the circumstances, this should be a win for the Broncos. 7* Denver Money Line |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland |
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10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 42 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (7:00 ET): Few teams got off to a worse start in 2021 than Colorado State did. The Rams lost outright (42-23!) to FCS South Dakota State in their first game. Then they lost again as favorites (at home to Vanderbilt) the following week. The season then took a drastic turn with a 22-6 upset of Toledo on the road. CSU’s only TD in that game came on a punt return. They surprisingly stayed close in Iowa City (led at the half) and then last week came what was easily their best game, a 32-14 win over San Jose State. But even that one comes with the “asterisk” of being +3 in turnover differential. Now taking New Mexico here, even with the points, does require a “leap of faith''. The Lobos are one of only two 0-6 ATS teams in the country. They’re losing by an average of 12.3 PPG and are near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. But they’ve also faced some pretty good teams on the road, like Texas A&M and San Diego State. They also hosted Air Force, who is 5-1 SU. Considering where Colorado State was a month ago, this is precisely the “drop in class” (in terms of the opponent) that they need in Albuquerque right now. The home team will also be highly motivated come Saturday night. Not just to end their four-game losing streak in 2021, but also to end a 10-game losing streak to CSU. This is what you need to know - every win New Mexico has had in the L3 seasons has come at Dreamstyle Stadium. Colorado State only averages 22.4 PPG and this is their first time favored on the road since they lost by 21 at Fresno State in LY’s opener. UNM is obviously due to cover and this is probably the most opportune time to take them all season. Take the points. 10* New Mexico |
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10-16-21 | Purdue v. Iowa OVER 43 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech |
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10-16-21 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion UNDER 68 | Top | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion |
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10-16-21 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Well, this is certainly the ultimate “letdown” spot for A&M isn’t it? Last week, I called it a “great buy low spot” on the Aggies, who were coming off B2B losses (after previously winning 11 in a row) and getting a ton of points at home. Well, wouldn’t you know they went out and pulled the biggest upset of the College Football season, beating top-ranked Alabama 41-38. It’s now a completely different situation this week as Jimbo Fisher’s team must guard against overconfidence as they hit the road to face Missouri, a conference opponent they haven’t faced in awhile. Gotta fade this week. Both of these schools moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012. They faced off in 2013 & ‘14 w/ Mizzou winning both games. Going back to their Big 12 days, the Tigers have won five of the previous six matchups! This is A&M’s first trip to Columbia since that initial SEC meeting in 2013. Now when the Aggies arrive they may find a fanbase that’s bordering on destitution. That’s because Mizzou has not covered a single spread in 2021 and is on an 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the country. Why would I be interested in taking the Tigers then? Well, in addition to this being the ultimate letdown spot for A&M and Mizzou being “just plain due,” this is the most points the Tigers have gotten in any game this season and the first time they are a home dog. Two of their losses have been by seven points (one in OT at Boston College). They led by 27 in the 4Q LW at home vs. North Texas and should have covered that game (were -18.5). I bought low on A&M last week, now it’s time to “sell high” on them and buy low on the opposition. Take the points. 8* Missouri |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show |
10* Texas (12:00 ET): They say “everything is bigger” down in Texas and in the case of my top Big XII selection for the 2021 College Football season, that is certainly the case. Obviously, the Longhorns really let one “slip away” last week in the Red River Rivalry. They led Oklahoma 28-7 after 1Q, 38-20 at half and 41-30 after the 3Q. They lost 55-48. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they didn’t even cover the pointspread. Despite that being their second loss of the season, I still believe the Longhorns can be a Top 10 team by season’s end. Love them this week as my power ratings say this should be a double digit spread! It’s another unbeaten team from the state of Oklahoma that UT is facing this week. This time it’s Oklahoma State, who is 5-0 SU and coming off a bye. In all due respect to Mike Gundy’s team, they are no Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lived dangerously the first month of the season, winning every game by 11 points or less and three of those wins were by a total of 13 points. They trailed in three of the five wins, barely outgained a FCS team and were down entering the 4Q vs. Tulsa. They were down double digits to Boise State in their only previous road game. That last sentence brings me to another difference between this and last week for Texas - this game takes place in Austin where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2021. Also, just to reiterate the drop in class when it comes to the opposition, I (like everyone else) consider Oklahoma a top six team in the country. The pollsters may have OK State at #12 entering this week, but they don’t even make my Top 35! It speaks volumes that the unranked team is favored here. A few weeks ago, when discussing Va Tech-WVU, I talked about how well unranked favorites tend to do ATS when hosting Top 25 opponents. Lay the points here as OK State’s unbeaten run will come to an end. 10* Texas |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 104 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Jose State (10:30 ET): The abbreviated 2020 College Football season saw San Jose State come out of nowhere to win its first conference title since 1984! The Spartans upset Boise State in the MWC Championship Game and took an unbeaten record (7-0 SU!) into the Arizona Bowl. That’s when I struck. My 10* College Football Game of the Year was not only on their bowl opponent, Ball State +9, but SJSU ended up losing that game outright 34-13. Needless to say, that was one of my biggest wins EVER. This year SJSU (19 returning starters) went from the hunter to the hunted and things have not gone as well. They’re 3-3 SU through six weeks and while they’ve won every game they were supposed to win (3-0 SU as favorites), they’re 0-5 ATS L5 games. Last week may have been their worst game since the Arizona Bowl as they turned it over three times and were beaten 32-14 at Colorado State. It may seem like a strange time to jump on board, but this Friday marks the 1st game in 2021 that the Spartans have been installed as home underdogs. I really like the spot. They haven’t lost a home game since 2019. It seems as if things have almost come full circle as SJSU will be welcoming in the last remaining unbeaten in the Mountain West, San Diego State. The Aztecs are 5-0 SU with a couple upset wins over Pac 12 schools (Arizona & Utah). But they were outgained twice, in the OT win over Utah and by New Mexico State (!). This is just their second road game. They are ranked #24 by the AP & the Coaches, but they barely scratch my top 75 and are easily the lowest rated of the 13 remaining unbeatens. San Jose State was on a 6-2 ATS run as a conference dog before running into a rested opponent last week. After the turnovers, Colorado State only had to move the ball 37 yards to get nine crucial points. Playing host to an unbeaten team, on a short week, is a much different scenario. Take the points. 10* San Jose State |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
8* Clemson (7:00 ET): The last three weeks have seen Syracuse host two unbeaten teams. The first, which was Liberty, left with a loss. The second was Wake Forest last Saturday. That game went to overtime, but this time the Orange came up a little short, losing 40-37 on the scoreboard. But they did leave with the cash as 5.5-point underdogs. It was their fourth straight game covering the spread and they are now 5-1 ATS overall on the season. (Only ATS loss was to Rutgers). It’s certainly surprising that Clemson isn’t the third straight unbeaten to visit the Carrier Dome. Even more shocking is that Dabo Swinney’s team has already lost TWICE, once to Georgia (that’s fine) and then in overtime at NC State (not that bad). Even after rebounding two weeks ago against Boston College (won 19-14), the Tigers are 0-5 ATS. They are one of just three FBS teams to be winless against the spread. I know that the offense has lacked “pop.” But coming out of a bye, this is a GREAT buy low spot. While Clemson is rested, Syracuse is coming off three consecutive games that were decided by three points. Eventually that’s got to wear a team down. Normally, the Orange would be “up” for a visit from the ACC’s resident stalwart, but this time I think they are ripe for the picking. After spending one week out of the Top 25 (first time since 2014), Clemson should be ready to go on a run. They are still in the Top 10 in my power ratings and must be respected. We’re getting a discount here. Trust me. Lay the points. 8* Clemson |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The road team has gone 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but only 2-3 straight up. Obviously, most are anticipating that SU record will be “squared away” after tonight as the Bucs visit the Eagles. But the Super Bowl Champs best be careful here as Philly is coming off a SU win (I had ‘em!) last week in Carolina. As I said in my analysis for that game, the Eagles have actually outgained their opponents - on a per play and per game basis - despite the losing record. Certainly, the score of last week’s Bucs game will only further attract more bettors to them. They won 45-17 with Tom Brady throwing for 400+ yards and five touchdowns. But they were facing a terrible Miami team, who I have rated dead last in the league in my own personal power ratings. Two of Tampa's other three victories this season have been by just two points. They’ve not fared well on TNF previously, going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. That includes the season opener vs. Dallas where they won 31-29, but did not cover as nine-point chalk. The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS at home thus far, so you know they’re going to be highly motivated to win in front of their fans for the first time under HC Nick Sirianni. It’s not often you get them in this price range, but they are 8-1 ATS the L9 times they’ve been a dog of 7.5 or more points with five outright wins. QB Hurts did not play great last week against a good Carolina defense, but did throw for a career-high 387 yards in his last home game. Here he'll be facing a banged-up Bucs secondary that has given up the most passing yardage in the league. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:30 ET): What has happened to Memphis? Since pulling off a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win against Mississippi State last month, the Tigers have lost three straight games - by a total of 12 points. They were favored in two of the losses - home vs. UTSA and at Temple. Both of those games saw them blow 17+ point leads. Last week in Tulsa, the Tigers outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards, but that was wiped away by a -3 turnover differential and they lost on the scoreboard 35-29 as a 3.5-point underdog. Needless to say, they are glad to be back at the Liberty Bowl where they’ve won 17 of 18. Save for a shocking 34-30 upset over UCF, who was starting a backup QB, Navy has mostly been a sinking ship in 2021. The Middies are 1-4 SU and coming off a tough 31-24 loss to unbeaten SMU. While they led by as many as two touchdowns in the 2Q, Navy was outgained in the game 404-241. This offense has simply not been clicking the way it used to as the Midshipmen are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 282.6 total yards per game. This will be just the second time Ken Niumatalolo’s team has had to “set sail” from Annapolis this season. I don’t like the spot for them. Had they not rallied with 17 4Q points against UCF, then Navy would be 0-5. Memphis’ one loss at Liberty Bowl in the last 18 tries came the last time they were here, against UTSA, whom they led 21-0 early. I certainly can’t see the Tigers dropping B2B home games and will lay the points here as they’ve outgained their L3 opponents despite being 0-3 SU/ATS! The problem is they were -7 in TO’s in those three games. They gained over 600 yards of total offense last week. Navy is 3-0 ATS its L3 games, but they’ve been a dog of 13 or more points every time. Pardon another pun, but the Midshipmen are lacking in the necessary “firepower” here. 8* Memphis |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
9* Buffalo (8:20 ET): The Bills have a serious claim to being the league’s top team right now as they have a +90 point differential, which is #1 overall and the second best point differential through four games in franchise history (only the ‘92 Super Bowl team was better). They are just the second team since the merger to post two shutout victories by at least 30 points (the great ‘91 Washington team is the other) in the first four weeks of the season. Yes, they’ve beaten up on some bad teams. But this week, they have the chance to prove themselves on a national stage in a big revenge spot. I think they get it done. This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play. Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021. Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers |
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10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Since opening the season with an impressive 32-6 beatdown of Atlanta, the Eagles have yet to win again. They’ll arrive in Carolina Sunday on a three-game losing streak - both SU and ATS. The last two losses saw them matched up against a couple of the league’s premier teams, Dallas and Kansas City. The Jalen Hurts led offense put up lots of yards and a decent amount of points in those games, but it obviously wasn’t enough either time. Here, they’ll be matched up with a banged up Panthers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2021. I smell “upset,” so take the points. I’d say that the biggest issue in Philly right now is a defense that’s allowed the second most rush yards in the league. But that unit catches a break here as Panther starting Guard Pat Elflien is on IR and Tackle Cam Erving is not expected to play. So even if RB Christian McCaffery does return from his own injury, he’ll be operating behind a line that’s down both starters on the left side. I’m still not sold on QB Sam Darnold, even though he led Carolina to a 3-0 start. Remember two of those wins were against the Jets and Texans. Facing those type of teams is why the Panthers entered last week #1 in total defense. But as we saw they got shredded by Dallas (433 yds allowed) in a 36-28 loss. Clearly, the Eagles are not as good or potent offensively as the Cowboys are. But Hurts is coming off B2B games with 300 yards passing, including a career-high 387 last week. The team has outgained its opponents - on a per game and per play basis - despite the 1-3 SU start. Last week, they had to face the Chiefs on a short week and still it was a one possession game in the 4Q. Carolina’s is banged up on BOTH sides of the ball as they just put two defensive starters on IR and LB Shaq Thompson has been ruled out as well. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
9* New Orleans (1:00 ET): For most of last week, it appeared as if the Saints were headed for a victory and Washington was headed for a loss. But instead, the opposite happened. New Orleans shockingly blew a double digit 4Q lead at home and lost in OT to the Giants, 27-21. Meanwhile, Washington came from behind to defeat Atlanta 34-30. What I’m going to do here is use those surprising results to my advantage and take what I feel is an undervalued Saints team on the road this week. Lay the points. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in these two teams’ games this season. That includes 4-0 in Saints’ games. New Orleans has definitely taken an unconventional path to 2-2 SU as they’ve won both times they were dogs (Green Bay, New England) but lost outright both times as favorites (Carolina, Giants). Washington has been favored three times this year, but the only time they covered in that role was last week in Atlanta. The one time they were an underdog, they got blown out 43-21 in Buffalo. Washington’s two wins have been by five total points and came against the Falcons and Giants, two teams that are a combined 2-6 SU right now. They’ve got a backup QB (Taylor Heinicke) under center and the defense isn’t playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Making matters worse, two defensive starters were lost for the season last week. There are also key injuries on offense. The Saints’ offense has obviously fallen off somewhat without Drew Brees, but the defense remains elite, allowing just 66 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. I can’t see Heinicke single-handedly leading a Washington upset here. The Saints are a fantastic 30-12 ATS L42 road games. 9* New Orleans |
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10-09-21 | Memphis +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 29-35 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:00 ET): After pulling out a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win at Mississippi State three weeks ago, the worm has really turned against Memphis. They’ve lost two straight, blowing 17+ point leads in both games. I can’t decide which “choke job” was more shocking. Was it the one at home against UTSA where they up 21-0 after one quarter and never trailed until the final play? Or was it last week where they were 11-point favorites over a bad Temple team? Regardless what the correct answer is, I see the Tigers bouncing back this week against a Tulsa team that should NOT be laying points. Tulsa is 1-4 SU and just got handed its lunch by Houston last Thursday. It was 28-0 early in the 2Q and ended up being a 45-10 final. I can understand the Golden Hurricane getting a little respect here as they did cover at both Oklahoma State and Ohio State. But they also lost outright at home to FCS Cal Davis in the season opener. They did not play Memphis in 2020, but have lost the last three head to head matchups (2017-19) by an average of 18 PPG. Again, I just don’t see how they’re favored here. Last year snapped Memphis’ three-year streak of AAC Championship Game appearances. The loss to UTSA ended a 17-game win streak at the Liberty Bowl. But they are still a stronger team than Tulsa. They’ve led for 104 of the 120 minutes the L2 games, yet somehow managed to go 0-2. I think this is a “get right” game. They’ve scored 31 or more points in all five games and could easily be 5-0. Tulsa has topped 23 points in only one game thus far and that just won’t cut it here. 8* Memphis |
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10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +18 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (8:00 ET): A&M had an 11-game win streak (going back to last season, obviously) snapped two weeks ago by Arkansas. Then they lost again last week to Mississippi State. Now they must face top-ranked Alabama this Saturday night at Kyle Field. Things have definitely turned in College Station, but with “the world” figuring to be on ‘Bama in this one, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Aggies, who are at home and getting a ton of points. They are still a Top 20 team in my eyes. Running through Alabama’s credentials would probably only serve to dissuade your interest in the other side, so I’ll refrain from doing so here. It is interesting though that the public had some doubt in Nick Saban’s team going into last week’s game with Ole Miss. Now they’re back on the Bama train. Coming into the season, this was thought to be the Crimson Tide’s toughest regular season matchup. I know A&M is dealing with some key injuries, but should bettors really be writing them off to this degree? Zach Calzada will make his 4th start at QB for Texas A&M. The offense has definitely suffered since Haynes King broke his leg against Colorado, but I think the Aggies can put enough points on the board here to stay within the number. Defensively, they’ve yet to allow more than 26 points in any game this season. I’m sure they’ll allow more than that here, but it is worth noting they allow fewer PPG than does the Bama defense. Bama’s defense struggled in its only other “true” road game, giving up 29 points and 440 yards to Florida. Take the points. 8* Texas A&M |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
8* LSU (7:30 ET): LSU is 3-2 SU on the year and coming off a 24-19 loss to Auburn, which prompted HC Ed Orgeron to come out and take “responsibility” for the ongoing woes in the Bayou. This program is just two years removed from winning the National Championship, but has gone just 8-7 SU since. With last week marking the first of six consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, Orgeron better get this figured out quick. This week, the Tigers are road underdogs to a 5-0 Kentucky team. But UK is a bit fortunate to still be unbeaten in my view. They squeaked by Florida last week, 20-13, despite the Gators running NINE plays inside the 20-yard line in the final minute. It was the Wildcats’ first time beating Florida at home in 35 years, so this week is a bit of a letdown spot even though it’s LSU coming to town. Mark Stoops’ team was outgained 382-224 last week and it was their fourth straight win by seven points or less. Eventually, lady luck runs out on you. For UK, I think that time will be this week. For what it’s worth, LSU led Auburn for most of the game last week. They only trailed for the final 3:11. It was a 13-point lead in the 2Q and nine-point lead entering the 4Q. This looks to be a great buy low spot as my power rankings say the Tigers should be the favorites in this one, even on the road. Kentucky now goes from the hunter to the hunted and I just can’t see an LSU team that’s been favored in every game thus far dropping to 3-3 SU. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as underdogs and 6-1 ATS L7 off an ATS loss. Take the points. 8* LSU |
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10-09-21 | Georgia Southern v. Troy -5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 0 m | Show |
10* Troy (7:00 ET): Troy is coming off B2B losses and because of that, I think we’re getting a pretty solid value this week. Both losses took place on the road, the first being a real shocker vs. LA Monroe, a game Troy was favored to win by 23.5 points and had a 378-290 edge in total yards. Yet somehow they lost 29-16. Then came a game effort last week at South Carolina, but four turnovers proved to be the Trojans’ undoing there. The most costly TO was a “pick-six” in the final minute of the 1st half. Troy actually finished with more first downs than the Gamecocks (21-19), but that was little consolation in a 23-14 defeat as 6.5-point dogs. I’m expecting a lot better performance from Chip Lindsey’s team this week as they return home to face Georgia Southern. Not only are the Trojans looking to square away their record at 3-3 SU this season, but they’re playing with revenge for a 20-13 loss last year in Statesboro where they were three-point favorites. This is Lindsey’s third year here and he’s still looking to return the program to the level of 2017-19 when the Trojans won 10+ games every year under Neal Brown. In the first home game in nearly a month, this is pretty close to “must win” for Lindsey. Ga Southern just ended a three-game losing streak last week with a 59-33 win over Arkansas State. It was their first game under interim HC Kevin Whitley as Chad Lunsford was fired after a 1-3 start. It was somewhat of a misleading home win for Whitley and the Eagles as total yardage was even but they were +4 in turnovers. Both times Ga Southern has been asked to go on the road, they’ve lost by 30+ points. This is a one-dimensional team on offense and defensively they rank 114th in the country in scoring. Troy is 22nd in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 17 PPG. All signs point to a big Troy win here. 10* Troy. |
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10-09-21 | UTEP v. Southern Miss +2.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
9* Southern Miss (7:00 ET): Yes, I know that Southern Miss is down to its third string QB. Freshman Jake Lange made his first career start last week against Rice and threw three interceptions while also being sacked five times. That’s to be expected with a freshman, but what impressed me is that Lange did throw for 300+ yards. Unless there’s been some sort of “football renaissance” down in El Paso that I’m unaware of, I don’t understand why UTEP is now favored in this one (other than people are scared of a backup QB). I’m taking the points. UTEP is 4-1 SU. How shocking is that record? Well, from 2017-20, the Miners won just five games total! Three of them came last season, but two were against FCS opponents. Incredibly, coming into 2021, this program had just two FBS wins under HC Dana Dimel. They’ve already topped that number this season (with 3), but two were against the “New Mexico teams” (both of whom stink) and then last week the Miners needed a late TD to top Old Dominion at home. I really can’t see this team moving to 5-1 SU. Southern Miss has dominated this C-USA rivalry, winning five straight meetings and covering three of the last four. They’ve outgained UTEP in all 10 meetings as conference opponents, by an average of 188 YPG! UTEP hasn’t been within 120 yards in any of those 10 games. Also, the Miners are 0-9 SU their L9 C-USA road games, so I just can’t see why anyone would put this much faith in them. They had fewer first downs than ODU did last week. 9* Southern Miss |
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10-09-21 | Boise State +6 v. BYU | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
8* Boise State (3:30 ET): BYU is undefeated (5-0) and ranked #10 in the country. My own power rankings have far less regard for them as they’re not even in the top 50. So the Cougars are almost an “automatic fade” for me now as I believe they’ll drop a game sooner rather than later. Making things even more enticing is the fact that perhaps no team in the country is as banged up at QB as BYU is right now. Starter Jaren Hall (ribs) did not play last week and his backup Baylor Romney suffered a concussion against USF. Hall could return this week, but if not it will be freshman Jacob Conover making his first career start. Regardless of who ends up starting, I’m definitely taking the points in this one. In light of the BYU QB situation, I’m pretty shocked to see how this line has moved during the week. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that Boise State just lost for the third time this year, 41-31 at home to Nevada as a 3.5-point favorite. But that was a case where the Broncos were an unfortunate -3 in turnovers. Their other two losses - to UCF and Oklahoma State - were by a combined six points. Note that BSU has had the 1st half lead in each of their three losses. I feel they are better than their 2-3 SU record. It was two weeks ago that I took them as road favorites going into face an unbeaten Utah State team. They won for me there 27-3. Boise State’s QB situation is not a concern as Hank Bachmeier threw for 388 yards and four touchdowns last week. Yes, he was responsible for two turnovers. But I still trust him more than whoever ends up under center for BYU. Injured ribs are a serious thing for a QB, so Hall isn’t going to be 100 percent. The freshman Conover didn’t look all that great last week. But above all else, the Broncos remember the 51-17 beatdown they were handed by BYU last year on the blue turf. That BYU team lost five players to the NFL, including QB Zach Wilson. Look for a much different story this time around. 8* Boise State |
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10-09-21 | Akron v. Bowling Green OVER 45.5 | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Akron/Bowling Green (12:00 ET): Bowling Green is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country and now finds itself favored for just the third time in its last 43 games. Normally, I might view this as an opportune time to fade. But I also have zero interest in taking an Akron team that is just 2-21 SU in its last 23 games, even if one of those victories came against the Falcons last season. (The other was this year vs. FCS Bryant). During that same time, the Zips are 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS as underdogs! (They were 2-pt favorites LY vs. BGSU). I don’t think you can play either side here. So what is the play? Well, in addition to being perfect against the spread so far, BGSU has also gone Under in all five of its games. They are one of just two 5-0 Under teams, Purdue being the other. Seeing as how the Falcons average only 17.2 PPG (they are 2-3 straight up), you may think I’m going to predict the Under trend to continue. Guess again! With Akron already having given up 45+ points three different times, I think BGSU is going to have its highest scoring game of the season this week. Just to further illustrate how awful the Zips truly are, this is the first time since 2015 that BGSU is favored by two touchdowns. Talk about being due for Over; not only is BGSU one of just two teams in the country to be 5-0 Under right now, but the last five meetings with Akron (and 8 of the last 9) have stayed Under as well. The Zips’ win over BG last season is the only time in their last eight games that they did not give up at least 34 points. All we’re probably going to need from them here is 10 points. Every one of Akron’s games this year would have gone Over this total, which is incredibly low for a College Football game in 2021. 10* Over Akron/Bowling Green |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): An argument could be made that this is a letdown spot for #5 Cincinnati as they are coming off perhaps the biggest win in school history last week, a 24-13 triumph in South Bend over Notre Dame. But one could also argue that Temple is also due for a letdown as it is coming off a shocking 34-31 upset of Memphis as 11-point home dogs. I know that the spread is rather sizable in this one, but my power ratings say it should be more than FIVE touchdowns. I’ll go ahead and trust my numbers. The Bearcats not only must continue to win, but also win impressively if they are to have any shot at making the CFP. An unbeaten regular season is certainly a prerequisite for even being considered for one of the four spots. With all the chaos this year in College Football, Luke Fickell’s team has a shot. Going on the road and beating Indiana and Notre Dame was huge for the resume. Now it’s time to simply blow out a lesser opponent. The first two games of the Bearcats’ season were both 35-point wins (over Miami and Murray State) and that’s what I’m looking for here. Give Temple credit for pulling the upset last week, but they were down 17 to Memphis before storming back for a shocking second half comeback. Furthermore, in losses to Boston College and Rutgers, the Owls were outscored 89-17. They will give up a LOT of points this week as they’ve yet to face an offense anywhere close to the caliber of Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won their L3 Friday night home games by a total of 88 points. They continue to roll. 10* Cincinnati |
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10-07-21 | Rams -130 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Rams Money Line (8:20 ET): I think that the Seahawks should feel extremely fortunate to have defeated the 49ers on Sunday. Their first five drives of the game were all “three and outs” and resulted in -12 net yards. They were outgained nearly 2:1 in total yardage for the game (457-234) and 6.3 to 4.3 in terms of yards per play. It was a massive break that 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo got injured, leaving a rookie (Trey Lance) to have to come in and play extended minutes for the first time. I don’t think Seattle, who could easily be 1-3 SU right now, will be as fortunate this week. After beating the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers in Week 3, the Rams suffered a letdown and thus their 1st loss of the season on Sunday. They simply had no answers for Kyler Murray and Arizona in a pretty shocking 37-20 home loss. Yards gained per play was basically even and the Rams’ offense did go over 400 yards. But two turnovers, one deep in their own territory, led to Cardinals’ touchdowns. There was also a missed FG and turnover on downs. The fumble at their own 21-yard line (occurred in the 2Q) was what really swung the game as LA fell behind by double digits and never really recovered. I’ve still got the Rams rated as the better team here and believe they’ll come in and pick up a big division road win. Don’t let last week cloud the fact that QB Matt Stafford has looked GREAT thus far in Sean McVay’s offense. The Seattle defense is giving up 444.5 YPG, which is the most in the league. Over the L2 years, we’ve seen Russell Wilson bail out this lousy Seahawks defense, but the NFC West is so tough now. The Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS coming off a division loss while the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS off a division win. 10* LA Rams (Money Line) |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
10* Coastal Carolina (7:30 ET): This line ought to be more than three touchdowns, so I’ll “follow” the early money here and lay the points with the Chanticleers. The defending Sun Belt Champs have looked awesome in recent weeks, defeating their last two opponents by a combined score of 112-9! Now UMass and LA Monroe are two of the worst FBS teams in the country. But so is this week’s opponent, Arkansas State. ASU has allowed 41+ points to every FBS opponent so far and 52+ in three of those four games. They are dead last in the FBS in yards per game allowed (563.8). Lay the points. In a short week, now is not the time where Arkansas State can get its many defensive issues fixed. The Chanticleers’ offense is potent, averaging 528 yards and 48.2 points per game. It is led by QB McCall, who is completing 80% of his passes while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt. The ASU defense just gave up 500+ yards RUSHING last week, so they are in for a world of hurt here. The only game so far where Coastal had any trouble was when they visited Buffalo in Week 3. They struggled due to an inability to stop the run, but ASU is NOT a team capable of replicating the kind of success Buffalo had running the football. Because they are always trailing, the Red Wolves have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and average a rather pathetic 67 YPG over land (on just 2.8 YPC!). They like to throw, but the problem is Coastal is allowing just 130.8 pass YPG, third fewest in the country. This will get ugly. 10* Coastal Carolina |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +6 | Top | 40-22 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
8* Tulane 1st Half (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. Houston comes in at 4-1 SU while Tulane is 1-4 SU. Somewhat predictably, the public is betting this one based on those WL records. But the records are a little misleading in the sense that Tulane has played - by far - the tougher schedule of the two teams. Already, the Green Wave have been asked to go to Oklahoma (game moved due to Hurricane Irma) and Ole Miss. In addition to facing those two P5 opponents, they’ve also had to take on two more pretty good teams, UAB and East Carolina. I’m seeing some value with the home dog, at least in the 1st half. Take the points. Houston had been favored in each of its first four games. Then came last week where the Cougars were three-point dogs at Tulsa. They could not have asked for a better start to the game. It was 21-0 early in the 2Q after Tulsa’s first four possessions resulted in two punts, a turnover on downs and an INT. Frankly, I thought the final score (45-10) was a little misleading and not really representative of where I’ve got those two teams in my power ratings. Houston’s other three wins were all against bad teams and it should be pointed out that two weeks ago against Navy, they were down 10 at halftime. Tulane could certainly point to a -4 turnover differential as to why it got blown out, 52-29, at East Carolina last week. It was the second straight game where the Green Wave turned it over four times and second straight outright loss as a favorite. Bad starts doomed them in both games. At home Thursday night, I do not see them falling into such an early hole. This is a team that only lost by five points at Oklahoma. They have a good QB (Michael Pratt) and are 10-2 ATS at home under HC Willie Fritz. With SMU, Cincinnati and UCF all looming on the schedule, the Green Wave desperately needs to win Thursday night. 8* Tulane 1st Half |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers Money Line (8:15 ET): The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in these teams’ games this season. The Raiders’ season started with B2B upsets over the Ravens and Steelers. Then they won last week as favorites, but did not cover, in their second OT win of the season. The Chargers have also already pulled two upsets, winning at Washington 20-16 (+1.5) and at Kansas City 30-24 (+7). In between, they lost outright to the Cowboys 20-17 as three-point home favorites. I just can’t see Las Vegas pulling its third upset in four weeks. Not when they are just the fourth team to win two OT games in the first three weeks and only the second to start 3-0 when doing so. Prior to pulling out the OT win against Miami last week, the Silver and Black had been just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins. Personally, I was not that high on the Raiders coming into the year. So it’s definitely a surprise to see them at 3-0 SU. The Chargers are a team I did say would improve in 2021 and my main rationale was “Justin Herbert.” The second year QB threw four TD passes in last week’s upset of the Chiefs. While LA was outgained in that game and the beneficiary of four KC turnovers, I don’t necessarily believe it was a “lucky” win. The Raiders’ defense has yet to be really tested in the passing game this year. I trust the Chargers’ ability to limit Derek Carr more than I do the Raiders slowing down Herbert. Take the Chargers to win, on the money line. 10* LA Chargers (ML) |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
9* New England (8:20 ET): I know that Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss with Tom Brady as their QB, but you are paying a premium because of that trend Sunday night. This isn’t “any other game” either. It’s Brady’s return to New England where he won six Super Bowls alongside HC Bill Belichick. Brady will become the NFL’s all-time passing leader at some point in this game, but I expect things to be closer than the oddsmakers think as Belichick is a remarkable 14-4 ATS as a home dog. Take the points. New England is just 1-2 SU, but outgained the opponents in both losses. Ironically, they were outgained themselves when they defeated the Jets 25-6 two weeks ago. Being +4 in turnovers in that win was huge, but then the “TO bug” bit them LW vs New Orleans as they were -3 in 28-13 game. Brady might be gone, but I still like this Pats’ defense as it is allowing just 318 YPG. The play that put last week’s game out of reach was pick-six, thrown by Brady’s replacement Mac Jones, early in the 2H. So the defense has yet to allow more 21 in any game. Tampa Bay’s defense has some work to do as the secondary is banged up. They’ve allowed at least 25 pts in every game and had few answers for the Rams last week in a 34-24 loss. The Bucs were a little fortunate to win in Week 1 (needed last second FG) and then the 48-25 final against Atlanta was misleading as that was a one-score game in the 4Q (they returned TWO interceptions for TDs). Given the magnitude of this SNF matchup, I believe the Bucs are WAY too “public” of a side. You know Belichick wants to win this game badly. 9* New England |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Green Bay’s horrendous Week 1 effort against the Saints now seems like a distant memory as they are 2-1 following primetime victories over the Lions and 49ers. But lest we forget that the Pack trailed Detroit at the half and needed a last second FG to win in San Francisco last Sunday night. This line feels like a classic overreaction to recent results as GB’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans should not be forgotten. They are a public side that should be faded in this spot. I’m taking the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ season does seem to be “heading in reverse” as it’s been the complete opposite of what we’ve seen from the Packers. Pittsburgh started out by going to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills 23-16 as 6.5 point underdogs. But they’ve followed that up with B2B outright losses as favorites, losing 26-17 to Las Vegas and 24-10 to Cincinnati. Both losses were at home. There are many offensive issues right now, but the defense is still good and hopes to get T.J. Watt back this week. This will only be the ninth time that Ben Roethlisberger is an underdog of six or more points. Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the L3+ seasons and has the NFL’s best ATS record in the month of October (7-1-1 during that time). The only team that the Packers have held below 28 points was the winless Lions, who scored 17 in the 1H against them. I think the Steelers’ D holds Rodgers below 30 points and will score enough here to cover the spread. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Incredibly, the Jets are on the verge of starting 0-4 for a third consecutive season. It has been a rough start to the pro career of QB Zach Wilson, the #2 overall draft choice. The Jets’ offense has scored just 20 points in three games while getting held out of the end zone B2B weeks. They were shutout in Denver LW, 26-0, in what was their worst loss yet. But against all odds, I think they’re going to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with the home dog. Tennessee usually doesn’t have a problem scoring. The Over is 22-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts. But this week Tannehill is going to be without BOTH of his starting receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Yes, he can still hand the ball to Derrick Henry. But this Jets’ defense isn’t bad at stopping the run. They allow just 3.8 YPC and know what’s coming here. The most points allowed by the Jets in any game so far was the 26 last week. As for the woeful Jets’ offense, I believe it has a chance to get on track here against a Titans’ defense that gave up 30+ points each of the first two weeks. The Jets are one of only three 0-3 ATS teams (KC, Washington), but considering how well underdogs are doing in 2021 (30-18 ATS with 21 outright wins), they are due to cover. First year HC Robert Saleh really needs a win. I’ll almost always gravitate towards a top 10 defense getting this many points at home. 8* NY Jets |