Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 149 h 59 m | Show |
8* Over Alabama/Georgia (8:45 ET): When you have the two top defenses in the country (in terms of efficiency) and two of the top four in points allowed per game (Bama #1, UGA #4), then Under is the natural inclination when it comes to betting the total. Alabama's Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was a real "defensive affair" w/ the Crimson Tide posting season lows in both total yards and yards per play. One-third of their plays went for zero or negative yards. Over the eight quarters, the Tide have scored just four touchdowns on 23 drives. Facing a pretty comparable defense in Monday night's Championship Game, another "ugly" affair has to be on tap, right? After all, Bama's defense was dominant as ever against Clemson, holding them to just 6 points and 188 total yards. Not so fast, my friend! Georgia's thrilling Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma (best Rose Bowl ever?) was no "defensive affair" as the 'Dawgs prevailed 54-48 in double OT w/ the two offenses combining for 1,058 yards. Now that was against an Oklahoma offense that is far more prolific than any other in the CFP and quite possibly the entire country. Alabama is a MUCH different opponent than the Sooners w/ defense being their strong side. But Bama still comes in averaging 37.9 points per game. The Georgia offense averages 36.3 PPG. With all the attention being paid to the two defenses, might we be underrating the offenses? This will be the second lowest O/U line for any Alabama game this season. The only lower one (43.0) was vs. Vanderbilt and saw the Tide blow by the total themselves in a 59-0 win. Now, pretty clearly, that kind of lopsided result will NOT be repeated here. But whatever decline in scoring there is from Bama's perspective can be offset by the Georgia offense being significantly better than Vandy's. Away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide allows 17.3 PPG, more than double what they allow at home. Georgia had only two games w/ an O/U line lower than this one (vs Vandy and Florida) and both went Over. Ironically, UGA scored 42 and 45 pts in those two games. Again, I don't think for a second either offense will score 40+, but they can both score 20+ and don't discount the possibility of a defensive or special teams TD here. 8* Over Alabama/Georgia |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (4:25 ET): This is lone matchup between division rivals on Wild Card Weekend, thus we're bound to hear about "how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season" (Saints won both reg season matchups and thus the division, which is why they have homefield advantage here). That's not necessarily true as this situation has seen the team that won both regular season matchups go 11-5 SU since 1990 (but only 8-7-1 ATS). However, we have not seen a three-game season sweep take place in the NFL since 2009 when the Cowboys did it to the Eagles. To me what's even harder to do is cover against the same opponent SEVEN straight times, which is what the Saints are trying to do here. Take the points. When New Orleans rolled into Carolina all the way back in Week 3, they were 0-2 SU/ATS on the season and little was being expected from them. Boy, how things changed in a hurry. The Saints would go onto win, 34-13 as 5.5-pt underdogs, and never looked back as they won 11 of their next 13 games. Interestingly enough, that Wk 3 matchup was the ONLY time the Saints won as an underdog all season. They'd go onto beat the Panthers here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 31-21, this time as six-point favorites in Week 13. How impressive was it for the Saints to score 30+ in both matchups vs. Carolina? Well, the Panthers allowed only one other 30+ pt game ALL SEASON, to the Patriots back in Week 4. For the year, Carolina allows just 20.4 PPG (same as New Orleans!) and is 7th in yards allowed. While New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games, Carolina has never lost in the Wild Card round, going 3-0 SU/ATS all-time. A big difference between this rubber match and the two regular season games will be the presence of Cam Newton's favorite target, TE Greg Olsen (didn't play either reg season game). While I'm not saying Carolina will win outright here, a close loss certainly seems like the strongest possibility. The Panthers were 7-1 SU in one-score games during the regular season and with regression likely to take hold, I can see them losing one here. Getting back to something I mentioned earlier, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS the L6 H2H meetings vs. the Saints, but they have won three of those straight up. Four of those six games have been decided by 5 pts or less. The Panthers were 5-2 SU and ATS as dogs this year. 8* Carolina |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
8* Under Panthers/Saints (4:25 ET): New Orleans went under a sort of radical transformation in 2017, all of a sudden developing a defense and running game to compliment Drew Brees. Actually, that statement somewhat underscores the transformation. The defense and running game became the identity of the team, supplanting Brees and the passing game. Led by rookie Alvin Kamara and a revitalized Mark Ingram (both made Pro Bowl), the Saints were #1 in the league in yards per carry at 4.7. The defense allowed just 20.4 PPG, same as the more heralded Carolina unit. Brees attempted 137 fewer passes than last season. This is a much different Saints team than the last time they made the playoffs (2014). Carolina may have allowed the same number of points per game as New Orleans, but they allowed significantly fewer yards (7th best overall) and held opponents to 32 YPG below season averages (4th best). They were #3 against the run (88.1 YPG allowed), but the Saints had their way w/ them in the two regular season matchups, going for 149 and 148 yards, both wins. But while the Panthers also allowed 30+ points in both games, they allowed only one other 30+ pt game (Patriots) all season. How impressive were the Saints' two rushing performances against the Panthers in the regular season? In 13 of their other 14 games, Carolina did not allow more than 109 rushing yards. They allowed 85 yds or less 10 times. Carolina's offense averaged only 22.7 points per game and ranked only 19th in yards per game. They scored only 10 points in the regular season finale at Atlanta. In two games vs. New Orleans, they scored 21 and 13 points. So if the Panthers are to win on Wild Card weekend, it will likely be on the back of the defense. Speaking of defense, the Saints allowed fewer than 20 pts in over half of their regular season games. While I realize these teams have posted the highest combined scoring average of any division rivals the past few seasons, those were different-type teams, especially on the Saints side. Two years ago, the Panthers were the top scoring offense in the league en route to a Super Bowl appearance. That's certainly not the case anymore. In three indoor games this year, Carolina averaged only 19.3 points per game. 8* Under Panthers/Saints |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): What a story. The Buffalo Bills have ended what was professional sports' longest postseason drought, which embarrassingly dated all the way back to 1999. In a bit of irony, the last time the Bills made the playoffs saw the Titans, Rams and Jaguars all in the field, same as this year! That '99 season (w/ Doug Flutie as the QB!) ended w/ the now infamous "Music City Miracle" in Tennessee. I'm not sure exactly how this one will end, but I'm confident that the time and place will be this Sunday and Jacksonville. Not to ruin a nice story, but the Bills are pretty easily the worst team in the playoff field, if not one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They were outscored during the regular season by 57 pts, yet got in over more qualified teams - Baltimore and Los Angeles - due to a convoluted tiebreaker that only came about when the Ravens shockingly allowed Andy Dalton and Cincinnati to drive the ball down the field and beat them. I'm laying the pts in this Wild Card matchup. Jacksonville comes into the playoffs off B2B losses, but do not let that erase what was a very impressive regular season. I was certainly a little disappointed to see them lose 15-10 at Tennessee last week (played all starters) and the week before, they gave up a season-high 44 pts to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. But over the course of 16 games, only the Patriots and Eagles outscored their opponents by larger margin. The Jags' defense, particularly against the pass, underwent a radical transformation this season. They allow only 169.9 YPG through the air (easily #1), had 55 sacks (#2) and allowed the second fewest points per game (16.8) overall. Facing a Buffalo offense w/ Tyrod Taylor at QB and possibly no RB LeSean McCoy, I look for the Jags to turn in a dominant defensive performance in this one. Buffalo's offense averages only 18.9 PPG, easily the fewest among playoff entrants. On the road, that number dips even further, down to 17.6. Their strength is running the ball (126 YPG), but w/o McCoy, they are going to be in a lot of trouble. Taylor, left for dead by this organization midseason, averages only 169.5 YPG passing. This is a battle of the league's second worst passing offense against the top passing defense, which is obviously a complete mismatch. Jacksonville also comes in sporting a +10 turnover margin (was higher earlier in the season) and is #2 in the league in takeaways. Buffalo, admittedly, only gave the ball away 16x. Still though, with or w/o McCoy (particularly w/o him!), I see the Bills' offense struggling in this one. There's another mismatch too, this one w/ the Jags' offense going against the Bills' defense. The former led the league in rushing offense while the latter was 30th at stopping the run. For all the talk about Buffalo's "Cinderella Story," let's not forget that this is Jacksonville's 1st playoff appearance since '07 and tickets went very fast for this home game. 10* Jacksonville |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 101 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Falcons/Rams (8:00 ET): The Wild Card round in the NFC half of the draw seems far more compelling than its AFC counterpart. Here, he we have the defending NFC Champs (who blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, you may have heard) against this year's big upstart. Atlanta led the league in yards per play (6.7) as well as most other key offensive categories last season, but while still effective on that side of the ball, dropped across the board this season. Thus, a team that was 16-2-1 Over last year went 11-5 Under this regular season. The Under has cashed in their last five games. Therefore, something is going to have to give Saturday night in LA as the Rams head into the playoffs on a five-game Over run! The Rams replaced the Falcons as the league's highest scoring team this year, scoring 125 more points over the course of the 16-game season. Their PPG average would have been even better had they not elected to rest starters LW vs. San Francisco (had NFC West wrapped up). Admittedly, even the most optimistic Rams fan did not see this season coming. The transformation of QB Jared Goff from year one to two was borderline miraculous and 1st year HC Sean McVay deserves a ton of credit. A resurgent Todd Gurley helps too. But I'm counting on a rusty Rams offense here due to a combination of the regulars not playing last week and the playoff stage being new to them. Let us not forget a game against Minnesota earlier this year when this group was held to just 7 pts (scored on opening drive). Dan Quinn, now in his third year as Falcons' HC, was ironically brought into repair the defense. Last year's team (as mentioned above) was carried by Matt Ryan and the offense, but any 2017 decline was somewhat offset by an excellent defense that allowed only 19.7 points per game. No opponent scored more than 23 against them in the L6 weeks and only one (Seattle) did so over the L11 weeks! Of course, the Rams have an impressive D too, coordinated by one of the best ever, Wade Phillips. Coming into the year, that side of the ball was thought to be the strength of the team and rather quietly they allowed only 20.6 PPG. They are also 4th in sacks w/ 48. I believe they can handle an Atlanta offense whose production almost always declines outdoors. The Falcons haven't scored 30 pts in any of the L5 games. I doubt they would here. Finally, let's not discount the impact of the Rams not having ace kicker Greg Zuerlein. 10* Under Falcons/Rams |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +3 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners. Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups. Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
8* Over Notre Dame/LSU (1:00 ET): This is one of the better non-CFP bowl games and a rematch of the 2016 Music City Bowl, won by the Fighting Irish, 31-28 as 8-pt underdogs. But that particular bowl game was played in December. Why is that significant? Well, ND has gone a horrific 0 for its last 9 (straight up) in January bowls! Prior to the start of the season, I had the Irish as one of the most improved teams in the country and they did not disappoint, racing out to an 8-1 SU start before dropping two of its last three (@ Miami and Stanford). LSU is on an opposite trajectory as they opened 3-2 SU (including home loss to Troy!), but then they closed on a 6-1 SU (only loss to Alabama) run, covering all seven games. I've got no great read on the side here (though I give a slight lean to Notre Dame), however, the total is something I'm very interesting in. Both offenses like to run the football, but will be going up against staunch run defenses. That sounds like an Under ... but I still trust this Irish offensive line (best in the country?). Before the Miami game, Notre Dame averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per rush. I expect them to rediscover that type of ground attack here as LSU will be minus its top three linebackers! I realize QB Brandon Wimbush completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in the regular season and will be w/o two receivers and tight ends on New Year's Day (combo of suspensions and injuries). But I think the run game can carry the offense, like it did in the reg season when it averaged a healthy 35.3 points per game. LSU's offense averaged 412.9 yards per game, which is probably more than you thought. It's not quite as lofty as Notre Dame's 454.9 YPG, but they averaged roughly the same number of yards per play (6.3 vs. 6.4). QB Etling completed nearly 60 percent of his pass attempts and it's looking like RB Darius Guice will be a go. In each of their last three games, the Tigers ran for 200+ yards and the Irish defense actually gave up 237 or more on the ground in three of the last four. They also allowed 37 or more points three times in that same stretch. The LSU offense got much better as the season went along, scoring 30+ in each of the final three games, peaking w/ a season-best 45 pts against A&M in the finale. 8* Over Notre Dame/LSU |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +11 v. Auburn | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points. UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games. Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:25 ET): Tennessee has everything (playoff berth!) to play for here while Jacksonville has nothing to play for here. The Jags have already clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as the AFC's #3 seed. That said, "stranger things" have happened in Week 17 and by all accounts, the Jags are playing their starters here. If this were a "regular week," Jacksonville would absolutely be favored here, even on the road. Their #1 scoring defense giving up 44 pts to the 49ers last week has to have left a "bad taste" in the players' mouths and I'm banking on that there's nothing they'd rather do, then knock out a division rival from playoff contention. The Titans have lost three in a row and have been outscored and outgained this season. Take the points. This is a revenge spot for the Jags, who lost at home to the Titans, 37-16 all the way back in Week 2. It's their worst loss of the season and was the most points allowed, until last week. However, that performance is in no way indicative of the kind of season the Jags have enjoyed. They are #3 in the league in point differential (#1 among AFC teams) and outgaining foes by an impressive 86.5 YPG (they are +0.8 yards per play). As mentioned earlier, the defense was #1 in scoring going into last week (now #2) and is still #3 in yards allowed. The offense will be w/o WR Marquise Lee for a second straight game, but also gets back Allan Hurns after a six-week absence. Yes, a +13 turnover margin has been huge for this team. But they are very good and worthy of being AFC South Champs. Tennessee, on the other hand, is very fortunate to even be in playoff contention. As mentioned earlier, they have been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. They've dropped three in a row, by only a total of 14 pts, but that was "due" as they'd previously gone 5-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. This is the first time in his career that QB Marcus Mariota will even suit up for a Week 17 game. He has not been good down the stretch and the offense will also be w/o DeMarco Murray for the first time in two seasons here. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans' top CB (Logan Ryan) may also be out. I'm counting on a Titans' gagjob here as Jacksonville is a much better team. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
10* Carolina (4:25 ET): Ok, so here's the setup for this one. If Atlanta wins, then they grab the NFC's final playoff spot. (They can still make it w/ a Seattle loss too). Carolina has already clinched a playoff spot, but in a field that is already pretty well set, the Panthers position is the most volatile. They can finish anywhere from #2 to #5 based on how the day goes. The best case scenario for them involves both Minnesota and New Orleans losing (note: both are favored) and them winning. That would result in Carolina leaping to the #2 seed, winning the NFC South and getting a 1st round bye! Minnesota plays at 1:00 ET and if they win, then that scenario is dead, but regardless, the Panthers will take the field at 4:25 ET knowing they have a chance to win the South (New Orleans also plays at 4:25 ET): As long as the Saints don't take a huge early lead (presuming the Panthers are scoreboard watching), we shouldn't worry about effort here. Take the points w/ the better team. Carolina won the season's 1st meeting, 20-17 as three-point favorites. I felt that anything above a field goal for this rematch would mean value on the Panthers and because of the situation the Falcons are facing, the oddsmakers have obliged. Atlanta did finish w/ a slight edge in total yds in that 1st meeting, but Carolina had more first downs and ran for 200 yards. The Panthers also held a 10-pt lead for most of the 4th quarter. They've been outstanding in the underdog role all season long, going not only 5-1 ATS, but also 5-1 straight up. They've won three straight - all by a TD or less - and while they were certainly lucky to win at Tampa Bay LW, this has been the BEST team in the league at winning close this year, going 7-1 straight up in one-score games. While Carolina ran for 200+ yards in that Week 9 matchup, Atlanta had no such success over land as their RB combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were held to 51 yds - total. Carolina's defense, which has been one of the best in the league this season, will be back at full strength this week as both DE Charles Johnson and LB Thomas Davis will return from suspensions. While both of these teams allow just 20.3 PPG, Carolina holds its foes to fewer yards per game. Atlanta is surprisingly only 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season while Carolina is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road. 10* Carolina |
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12-31-17 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 58 m | Show |
8* Under 49ers/Rams (4:25 ET): Is Jimmy Garappolo the greatest player in NFL history? In all seriousness, the Niners QB has never lost a NFL start (now 6-0) and has made San Fran look like a completely different team since coming over from New England. They were 1-10 SU when he took over and now they're 5-10 SU following wins over Chicago, Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (if only the 49ers played in the AFC South!). Two of those wins were very close (as in decided by 2 pts or less), but LW saw "Jimmy G" and company hang 44 pts on what was the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (Jaguars). That combined w/ the fact that the Rams are the #1 scoring offense in the league might lead you to believe Over is the correct call here. But this is Week 17 and no normal game. Take the Under. Even though their seeding is not set (could be #3 or #4 in NFC), the Rams have decided that winning the NFC West is enough as they're guaranteed to host a Wild Card game next weekend, regardless of what happens here. 1st year HC Sean McVay (should be Coach of the Year) is resting starters, most notably QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, WR Cooper Kupp, not to mention the possibilty of two offensive lineman as well. So the offense that will take the field Sunday, led by backup QB Sean Mannion, will be MUCH different than the one that has averaged 30.9 PPG this year. Then there's the kicking game where Greg Zuerlein is injured and we saw the adverse effect that had last week vs. Tennessee (replacement Sam Ficken missed an XP and short FG). While the 49ers did score 44 pts LW, one of their touchdowns came from the defense and two others were set up on a short field after Jacksonville turnovers. The Niners were actually outgained in the contest. This being the season's second matchup between the teams, typically we see an Under in this situation. The first game, which might as well have been played last season as it was all the way back in Week 3, was a wild 41-39 Thursday night affair. I expect nothing of the sort here w/ the Rams playing backups. In Garoppolo's first three starts, the Niners failed to break 26 points. 8* Under 49ers/Rams |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 113 h 48 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): This is a game where nothing is on the line as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. In the case of the 2-13 Giants, they've been out of playoff contention for some time in what has been a complete disaster of a season. Now, I had them ranked pretty high on my list of "likely disappointments" for 2017, but even at my most pessimistic, I could not have envisioned this. Already, there have been changes at head coach and GM, so clearly the organization is already thinking about next season when they'll likely be starting someone at QB not named Eli Manning. But in what could be Eli's final start at Giants Stadium, I expect the G-Men to show up. It's not like 7-8 Washington has any reason to be motivated. This will be just the third time in the last dozen years that the Redskins are a road favorite over a NFC East rival. They didn't fare too well the 2nd time, which was earlier this year in Dallas, as they were routed (38-14!) by a short-handed Cowboys team (no Elliott). I'll take the points here. The Giants have not won since Ben McAdoo was fired, but they did play hard in their last home game, which came against a division rival (Eagles). In that game, they actually finished w/ a nice edge in total yards (504-341). Despite him being an alleged "offensive guru," the Giants NEVER scored 30+ points under McAdoo. It was back to their old selves last week as they were shut out 23-0 in Arizona. That said, they also had the edge in total yds there, albeit just barely (293-289). One of the Cardinals' three touchdowns came from the defense late in the game and over half their total yardage came on just two drives. The Giants are w/o two key members of their secondary (Landon Collins and Eli Apple, who ironically are feuding), but the offense showed enough life in the Philly game to give me confidence here. Washington is not favored often (only five times previously this season) and they've been decimated by injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offense's yards per play have gone WAY down this season and speaking of potentially departing QB's, Kirk Cousins may have "one foot out the door" here. The defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, are w/o key players at all levels. On the road this year, the Redskins are -7.5 PPG. 8* NY Giants |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin |
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12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points. The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals. I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron. The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over USC/Ohio State (8:00 ET): I'd say that outside the CFP itself, this is the most anticipated bowl game. Initially, my lean is to Ohio State as the irony of the debate between them and Alabama for the 4th (and final) spot in the playoff is that I think they're - on paper - the best two teams in the country. Not making the CFP should lead to HC Urban Meyer having his Buckeyes VERY motivated on Friday night. But ... USC is not chopped liver. The Trojans were not a healthy team when they suffered their two losses during the regular season (at Wazzu and Notre Dame). If Iowa can put up 55 pts on this Buckeyes' defense, then QB Sam Darnold and company should certainly "do some damage" as well. I look for a very high-scoring (and entertaining) Cotton Bowl. Take the Over. Ohio State's offense averaged more PPG - significantly - than did USC's. While QB J.T. Barrett is often maligned by the faithful in Columbus, he directed a group that averaged an impressive 42.5 PPG in the regular season. USC's defense is not very good at stopping the run (allowed 158 YPG) and OSU is averaging 250 YPG over land. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 523.6 yards per game total at 7.0 yards per play. I see them moving the ball, almost at will, in this game. The fact that USC could be down two starters on the defensive side of the ball - LB Porter Gustin and CB Jack Jones - does not bode well here. Barrett ran for 732 yards this season, a nice compliment to sensational RB J.K. Dobbins, who went for 1,364 as a freshman. Of course, USC has a "pretty nice" QB/RB combo of their own in Darnold and Ronald Jones II. In fact, that's not only a better duo than Barrett/Dobbins, it just might be the best QB/RB combo in the entire country! USC averages 34.5 points and 490 yards per game. Other than the disaster against Notre Dame, there wasn't a single game where this Trojans offense was held under 27 pts. They did need OT to get to that benchmark vs. Texas, but the Longhorns also happen to have one of the top defenses in the country. The best performances from Ohio State's defense were all reserved for the non-bowl teams, as they gave up 38 to Penn State and 55 to Iowa. 8* Over USC/Ohio State |
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12-29-17 | Kentucky v. Northwestern -7 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 533 h 32 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem). Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU UNDER 49 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
8* TCU/Stanford Under (9:00 ET): The bowl matchups are starting to get more "attractive" on Thursday w/ three of the four pitting ranked teams against one another. This is one of them. I liked both TCU and Stanford coming into this season as the former got the "honor" of being labeled "my most improved team in the country" and the win total I had on them (Over 7.5) cashed easily. So you may be surprised to see that I'm NOT on the Horned Frogs here. That's because I also have a ton of respect for Stanford, especially w/ RB Bryce Love suiting up. This should be a very good game, between two well-coached teams, and that should lend itself to an Under play in my opinion. Both teams allow fewer than 21.5 PPG w/ TCU allowing only 17.6. The Under was 9-3 for TCU in the regular season, not surprising, given the defensive prowess. Like Stanford, the Horned Frogs (#11) are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency (Stanford is #15). Over the final two months, only one offense - that being Oklahoma's (so no shame there!) was able to top 24 pts against these Horned Frogs. And in the reg season matchup w/ the Sooners, they shut them out in the 2nd half (in Norman!). Iowa State was the only team besides OU to beat the Frogs and that was a 14-7 final. Getting back to the defense, it ranks top five nationally in yards per attempt (rushing), which seems like a good thing when getting set to face Love. That number per attempt was just 2.9! It's not just the run that this stop unit is great against, however. They also allow just a 52% completion rate, which is pretty impressive playing in the Big 12. For the season, they held opponents to 122 YPG below season averages. The TCU offense scored more than 27 pts only two times in the last eight games and those came against Baylor and Kansas, who went a combined 1-17 SU in conference play (2-22 overall!) w/ the one win being Baylor beating Kansas. As you know, they don't play a lot of defense in the Big 12, so the Stanford defense (which faces some strong passing attacks in the Pac 12) will be a tall order. The Cardinal were also their conference runner-up and like TCU losing to Oklahoma twice, they lost to USC twice. We have two inconsistent QB's at the helm here. 8* TCU/Stanford Under |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points. Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13. This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona UNDER 66 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Purdue/Arizona (8:30 ET): The Foster Farms Bowl features two teams that should be "happy to be here," simply based on the notion neither was in a bowl at the end of last season. Purdue was due for better luck in 2017 based on the fact they were tied for the worst turnover differential in the country last season (-17). They won their final reg season game, over rival Indiana, to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Arizona dropped its final two reg season games to finish 7-5 SU. Again, Rich Rod's team improving in '17 did not surprise me given most key metrics were pointing up after dipping down to 3-9 SU last season. Given the disparate styles of play here, something will have to give w/ the total and I see an Under. Purdue's defense - by the numbers - is very good. They allow only 19.3 PPG and that number actually drops outside of West Lafayette. That's key when facing an Arizona offense that comes in averaging 41.8 PPG, led by QB Khalil Tate. Over the L8 games, the Boilermakers didn't allow more than 25 pts to any opponent. (Granted, the schedule was not tough). But Michigan and Louisville were the only teams to score more than 25 against them all season. The problem here though is the offense averages only 24.2 PPG. 1st year HC Jeff Brohm will eventually have an impact on this group, but it wasn't this year nor will it be this game. In half their games, the Boilers scored 24 pts or less. Arizona is all offense and no defense, so it's just the reverse of Purdue. Playing in the Pac 12, the Wildcats didn't exactly face the kind of stout defense they'll see here. The good news though is that the defense will get a reprieve facing the Purdue offense. This O/U line clearly skews more to Arizona's style of play and I believe that's a mistake given Purdue had gone Under in six straight and 9 of 11 (w/ consistently lower totals) prior to the reg season finale vs. Indiana. 8* Under Purdue/Arizona |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant. Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss v. Florida State -16.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points. Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11. Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA +7 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -130 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke OVER 47 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over N Illinois/Duke (5:15 ET): This year's edition of the Quick Lane Bowl pits Northern Illinois against Duke. The former is used to playing here at Ford Field due to their plethora of MAC Title Game appearances. They didn't win their division this season, but still finished a solid 6-2 in conf play (8-4 SU overall) w/ the two losses coming to Toledo and C Michigan (meaningless reg season finale). Duke, meanwhile, needed to win its two final reg season games just to get here. It was a very "up and down" season in Durham w/ the Blue Devils having opened 4-0 SU (including a very impressive non-conf win over N'western), then losing six straight, followed by the B2B wins. I've got no read on the side, so to the total we go! Duke at long last snapped its drought of no bowl victories (dated back to 1961!) two years ago w/ a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Indiana. They failed to make a bowl game LY as they dropped to 4-8 SU. But, as mentioned above, they equaled that win total through just four games this season. Clearly, the most impressive win was 41-17 over N'western. But the good times would not last as the offense never broke 21 points during the six-game losing streak. However, note four of those six losses came by a TD or less. Interestingly, in all six wins, the Blue Devils scored 27 or more. We'll need to see more of the Daniel Jones (QB) that started the year w/ a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and threw for 226 YPG, than the one we saw in the middle portion of the season. In the final two reg season games, Duke gained 943 total yds. Northern Illinois certainly has a formidable defense. The Huskies led the COUNTRY in tackles for loss (8.8 per game!) and were #2 in sacks. Yet, they still gave up 31 pts in each of the final two reg season games and enter the Bowl on a three-game Over streak. There seems to be a prevailing wisdom that this will be a lower-scoring affair and as a result, oddsmakers posted a low O/U line. By kickoff, this may be the lowest O/U line of the season for NIU, save for a game against a Kent State team that may have had the worst offense in the country this season. The Huskies' offense really came on in the 2H of the season, scoring 30 or more in five of the last six games. They wound up averaging over 30 PPG. Duke went Under in all but three reg season games, but there's a good chance this ends up as their lowest O/U line of the season to date as well. 10* Over N Illinois/Duke |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans OVER 45.5 | Top | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Texans (4:30 ET): Even w/ an extra day to prepare, this is not a great situation for the Steelers, who are having to hit the road after losing an emotional game (at home) last week to the Patriots and they no longer have WR Antonio Brown (out for the rest of the reg season). The loss, which has brought about debate ad nauseum over how how the late game execution was handled, probably will cost the Black & Gold home field advantage in the AFC playoff draw (they now need New England to lose again). Though, it is is likely they'll still be the #2 seed and get a bye. Fortunately though, this week's opponent is exponentially weaker, especially now that they are on their THIRD QB of the season. I wouldn't want to lay the points, but Pittsburgh should certainly score enough here to help the game go Over the total. As you (likely) now know, Ben Roethlisberger threw an INT in the end zone in the closing seconds of last week's 27-24 loss to the Patriots. If there was ever time to call up the "dreaded" fate route, it was there. At worst, the pass goes incomplete, you can still kick the game-tying field goal and then try your luck in overtime. But considering the Steelers were already 7-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less this season, maybe they were due for some "comeuppance." While no Steelers' road game has gone Over this season (0-6-1), this talented offense has certainly begun to "rediscover itself" w/ averages of 28.7 points and 444 yards per game over the L3 weeks. While I certainly expect the Pittsburgh offense to "get theirs" at the expense of an injury-riddled defense, the Texans offense will be required to do SOMETHING here to help this one go Over the total. Certainly, there's only one way to go (and that's up!) after four straight games of 16 pts or fewer. Last week, they gained just 186 yards total, but that game (vs. Jacksonville) still went Over as it was a 45-7 loss. QB TJ Yates obviously isn't great, but he's probably playing for a roster spot at this point. Plus, he has one of the top WR's in the game to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. But the really good news is that the Texans' scoring average jumps up to 27.4 PPG at home. Four of the Steelers' last five games would have gone Over this total. Houston home games average roughly 51 PPG. 10* Over Steelers/Texans |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here. Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State |
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12-24-17 | Giants +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): These are two bad teams that I wouldn't want to lay points with, so the Cardinals are the ones to be faded this week, simply by default. Arizona is 4-9-1 ATS overall and is just 1-3 SU when favored, winning those games by an average of just one point per game. This is an offense that has not topped 16 pts in three consecutive games and is now being piloted by QB Drew Stanton again. Stanton was the starter for two games before spraining his knee back in Week 12. According to HC Bruce Arians, Stanton's knee "isn't completely recovered" and "he's still in a fair amount of pain." That should tell you all you need to know about Blaine Gabbert, who started the previous five games. The Cards were able to win two of those five games w/ Gabbert as the starter, both wins at home, those being somewhat shocking upsets of Jacksonville and Tennessee. But they have failed to gain even 300 total yds in B2B games and haven't scored a touchdown in 10 quarters! So again, not sure why you'd want to lay points with this team right now. All they've put on the scoreboard the last two weeks is nine Phil Dawson field goals. Defensively, they've been good. But the Giants' offense finally showed some life last week w/ a 29-point effort against the Eagles. It was their most points scored in any game the L2 seasons and they also gained a season-high 504 yards! Now this season has obviously been a disaster for the G-Men. Even I, who predicted big-time regression from them at the start of the season, could not have envisioned things would be this bad. HC Ben McAdoo was fired for his atrocious handling of QB Eli Manning, who is probably playing for pride at this point. Going back to the numbers last week, we saw what he's still capable of doing. With McAdoo gone, the team can at least play loose. Also, NY is pretty much "locked" into the #2 draft position next Spring. So, a win wouldn't necessarily "screw things up" either. While they're 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites, the Giants are a more respectable 6-5 ATS getting points this season. They're also 4-3 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-5 ATS at home. This one just boils down to the fact I don't see why you'd lay points w/ Arizona, who has not been favored since Week 9. 8* NY Giants |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): Since I became a professional handicapper (back in 2011), I'm not sure if there's been a single instance of "Seahawks stock" being any lower than it is right now. A number of injuries, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, was going to make qualifying for the playoffs a sixth straight time a "tall order." But last week's humiliation at the hands of the Rams (lost 42-7 at HOME) all but ended that aspiration. Now Russell Wilson and company have to hit the road to face a fellow 8-6 team, one that has renewed optimism due to the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. That team is of course the Cowboys, who have now won three straight after being "left for dead" themselves on Thanksgiving. Dallas was fortunate to win last week in Oakland as Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled through the end zone when it appeared his team was on the verge of going in for the game-winning score. Before that, the Cowboys had beaten the Redskins and Giants, two other "also-rans." I realize this is a "different team" w/ Elliott in the backfield, but they still could be w/o their best offensive lineman (Tyron Smith) and as we saw in the Atlanta game last month, that's a very big deal. Even w/ Elliott back and the Seahawks hurting, this game represents the Cowboys' toughest test since getting clobbered by the Chargers on Thanksgiving. When facing a team that has a winning record, in the second half of the season, America's Team is just 2-9 ATS the previous three seasons. I view this as a GREAT "buy low" spot on Seattle. First off, Wilson is 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The L3 weeks have seen the Seahawks play the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams, who I - collectively - have rated as the top three teams in the league. It's been a much more challenging set of games than what the Cowboys faced as none of their previous three opponents rank inside my top 19. It's rare to find Seattle coming in off B2B losses, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. Furthermore, underdogs of three points or more, that are off a loss by 35+ points, have cashed in at an extraordinary 72.5% rate (37-14-2 ATS). Dallas is only 3-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 21-33-2 ATS laying points to fellow NFC foes. 8* Seattle |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Chiefs recorded a huge win last Saturday, beating the Chargers 30-13 at home. That all but assures they're going to win the AFC West for a second consecutive year (barring them losing both of their remaining games and LA winning theirs). So, in essence, we've got a bit of a "flat spot" on our hands this week. While the narrative here will center around "KC being back on track," all they've done is win B2B home games against the division. It will be easy for them to overlook the Dolphins this week and I feel that taking the points is the way to go here. The Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by roughly four points per game this season and have not been favored by this many point at any other point this season. In fact, the Chiefs are 0-2 ATS the L3 seasons as DD favorites. This team simply isn't built to blow teams out, even though they have won by double digits each of the last two weeks. But again, keep in mind those were familiar foes they were playing for the second time this season. Miami is a team they have not seen since 2014 and that was a different Dolphins' regime. There are also a number of players on the Chiefs' roster battling an illness this week. The list includes LB Justin Houston, TE Travis Kelce and LT Eric Fisher. All have missed practice time this week and even if any/all play Sunday, they likely won't be 100 percent. Miami still does have an outside shot at the playoffs, so don't expect them to go down easily here. They must win both remaining games and hope for some help. It's a long shot, but again, expect effort this week after a poor showing in Buffalo. Remember we're less than two weeks removed from them upsetting the Patriots! There are two other factors that have me believing the Dolphins keep this game close. One is that the weather forecast calls for high winds, meaning a low-scoring game is a very real possibility. Two, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven games hosting a sub-.500 foe. They were favored by at least six points (as they are here) in all seven contests. My best guess for this one is that KC wins a very close game. 8* Miami |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A Chargers resurgence is something that I'd been calling for the better part of the last two seasons. But I have to admit; once they started 0-4 this year, I'd pretty much given up all hope. The inability to stay healthy, play turnover free football or win close games kept dooming them and thus when they were 3-6 SU, most (myself included) considered them a mere afterthought. But then they won four straight games - three of them by 17 pts or more - to get back into the playoff hunt. It was "put up or shut up" time last Saturday in Kansas City as LA had a chance to take over first place in the AFC West. One of the (several) reasons I laid off there was the Chiefs were simply a stronger opponent than what the Chargers had faced recently. Sure enough, the Bolts lost 30-13 and their playoff hopes are now on "life support." The Chargers are basically looking at just the Wild Card at this point. They'll obviously need some help to get it as Baltimore has an easy schedule, and thus is likely to claim one of the two WC's. Tennessee is a game up, but has two difficult home games to play. The Chargers have the tiebreak (head to head) over a Bills team they crushed in the "ill-fated" Nathan Peterman start. Best case; LA wins out and somehow ends up in a 9-7 tie w/ Buffalo for the final spot. But you have to wonder about the psyche of the team after last week's humbling at the hands of the Chiefs (8th straight loss to KC). This is also an early start time for the West Coast team and they won't have TE Hunter Henry (done for year), one of QB Philip Rivers' favorite targets. RB Austin Ekeler, injured last week, is dealing w/ a broken hand. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be w/o MLB Denzel Perryman and DT Corey Liuget. Special teams are also still a major concern here as the kicking game has made a league-low 70.4% of its FG attempts this season. The Jets have already exceeded their projected win total for the season and have been competitive here at home. Their record at MetLife Stadium is 4-3 SU and that includes a win over the same Chiefs team that has beaten LA twice. None of the three home losses have been by more than eight points. Of course, Bryce Petty is the QB of Gang Green now, but that didn't stop them from cashing for me last week (at New Orleans!). To me, if the Chargers are to win this game, it will be close (something they are due to do). The Jets are only being outscored by 4 PPG for the year. 10* NY Jets |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -7 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL. Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 101 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Colts/Ravens (4:30 ET): Coming in at 8-6 SU w/ two weeks to go in the regular season, Baltimore has to be feeling pretty good right now about its chances of returning to the playoffs after a two-year hiatus. They finish w/ two bad teams, these Colts and the Bengals (who are playing for a lame duck coach), and both games are at home. History suggests that the Ravens will NOT lose this game as they are 25-0 straight up in franchise history as a double digit favorite! But they're only 13-12 ATS in those same games and the price is especially high here. They may very well cover, but the Under is a better looking play to me w/ the key being I don't expect Indianapolis to score very many points here. The Colts should already be thinking about next year. Andrew Luck not playing at all doomed them from the start here in 2017 and there's a good chance HC Chuck Pagano might be relieved of his duties at season's end. While the Colts have managed three wins, they are probably the second worst team in all of football (ahead of the Browns, obviously) as those wins came at the expense of Cleveland, San Francisco (pre-Jimmy G) and Houston (post-DeShaun Watson). The last six games have all stayed Under for them w/ the offense never topping 20 points. In the last five games, all losses, they have not broken 17 points. In the last three, they've averaged a measley 10.0 points and 248 yards per game. Four of the last five weeks, they have not even gained 300 total yards. So, yes, this is a very bad team and QB Jacoby Brissett (who looks lost at times) knowns he's just "keeping the seat warm" for Luck's impending return next season. Brissett has thrown only 11 TD passes this year and has been sacked 49 times. He figures to fare poorly against this Ravens defense, which leads the league in turnover margin (+17). The Ravens may have scored 23+ points in every game since the bye and appear to be peaking at the right time. But, through the years, they've had some strange struggles w/ the Colts. They've beaten them just twice since 2002 and are just 1-9 ATS the L10 head to head matchups. But this is obviously one of the worst editions of Colts football they will have faced during that time (31st in total offense) and simply put, I expect the Ravens' defense to dominate this game. They lead the league in sacks, so Brissett is in major trouble, plus they've allowed an average of just 16.4 PPG at home in December under HC Harbaugh. There's also the strange trend that has seen these teams go Under in six straight and 10 of the last 11 matchups! Baltimore's scoring has been aided by multiple defensive scores the last five games (had another last week) and while that's a real possibility again here, I just don't see Indy scoring very much. For the year, the Ravens are still only gaining 303.6 YPG. 8* Under Colts/Ravens |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number. South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming (4:00 ET): These programs enter the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on very different trajectories. Central Michigan won and covered its final five regular season games while Wyoming dropped its last two games, one of them to an awful San Jose State team. The big story here centers around Cowboys QB Josh Allen, a likely 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft (overrated prospect, in my opinion). Whether or not Allen actually plays is irrelevant to me as I see a Wyoming offense that is very bad with or without him (atrocious w/o him!), yet the defense is what could make this a win for the Mountain West contingent. CMU rang up some big point totals on bad defenses down the stretch in the regular season. Take the Under. Now, to be fair to Allen, he lost a lot of his supporting cast to the NFL this season. Four starters from LY's offense are now playing on Sunday's and approximately 80 percent of LY's rushing and receiving production was lost as well. Thus, even w/ Allen playing most of the way, we have an offense here that didn't even average 300 YPG in the regular season. Allen was absent from the team's final two games and the Cowboys scored a TOTAL of 20 pts in losses to Fresno State and San Jose State. Personally, I don't know why Allen would play here given the shoulder issues and the impending payday he is going to receive. Regardless, Wyoming has gone Under in six straight games and 10 of 12 this year. That's also owed to a defense which allows just 17.8 PPG. One edge Wyoming does have over CMU here is they are used to playing in altitude and this game takes place on their side of the country. So, look for the Chippewas' offense to be drastically less productive here than it was down the stretch in the regular season. Also, note that before going Over in those final five games, the Chips had gone Under in five straight. After giving up 55 pts in LY's Bowl loss (to Tulsa), I suspect the CMU defense is going to play with a "chip" on its shoulder (pun intended!). "Anytime you let up that many points you're going to come off (angry)," defensive tackle Chris Kantzavelos told CMUChippewas.com. Both of these defense finished Top 12 nationally in interceptions. Neither offense is very good at running the ball (Wyoming is 119th nationally), so it may prove difficult to move the chains. 10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming |
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12-22-17 | UAB +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 6-41 | Loss | -130 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points. Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida. When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International OVER 56 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Temple/Florida International (8:00 ET): Initially, Temple looked like "fade material" in this spot. FIU is the program making its return to a bowl for the first time since 2011 while this is Temple's third straight venture into the College postseason. The Owls were also outscored in the regular season and this game is being played in the state of Florida (it is the St. Petersburg Bowl after all). But FIU was also outscored in the reg season and you have the factor that Temple was upset in each of its previous two bowl appearances. So, the soon to be departing seniors should probably be pretty motivated here. Therefore, we're going to turn to the total in this bowl game, a number that has been on the rise since it opened. The O/U line has risen, probably, in part due to the fact that both of these teams ended their respective regular seasons on Over streaks. Temple has gone Over in five straight (after going Under in their previous six games). FIU has gone Over in four straight and went 8-4 Over in the reg season. In five of its last seven season, including the previous three (all under current Baylor HC Matt Rhule), Temple allowed 20.1 points per game or fewer. This year, that number jumped to 27.7 PPG. They were sure to save their worst defensive efforts for their games against bowl opposition, allowing 45, 26, 31, 20, 43 and 49 pts. That's an average of exactly 29 PPG allowed. Offensively though, the Owls have been able to "pick up the slack." In their last three victories, they've averaged 37.3 PPG. Not to be outdone, FIU scored 104 pts in its final two reg season games. Their finale was a 63-45 shootout vs. UMass. That was a record-setting win, not just in terms of wins in a single season (8) for the program, but also for total yardage in a game (674). They rolled up 379 yards on the ground w/ SIX touchdowns and were 7 for 7 overall in the red zone, scoring more points than any other game in program history. Defensively though, there are issues. They allow more PPG than Temple and have given up at least 37 pts in three of the previous four games. In half of their games this year, they allowed at least 30 points. 8* Over Temple/Florida International |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!). While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -115 | 295 h 52 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country. Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:30 ET): It seems as if no one wants any part of the Buccaneers this week on Monday Night Football, and I can't really blame them. TB was a prime candidate to regress in 2017 and regress they have falling from 9 to (right now) 4 wins. Last year's squad led the league in net upsets (+6) and it's important to recall was only favored in THREE games. This year, they've been favored six times and fared okay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the underdog role has been quite unkind as they're 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. This line does seem inflated, but it's a virtual "must win" for the Dirty Birds, who already got a couple gifts yday w/ Seattle and Dallas both losing. The first meeting between these NFC South rivals took place just three weeks ago and saw the Falcons win by two touchdowns. Not enough has changed since then to make me think this one will go any differently. Lay the points. Furthermore, Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here as they last played two Thursdays ago when they picked up a huge win, beating New Orleans 20-17 as 2.5-pt home favorites (that line was quite volitaile throught the week). I, fortunately, was on the Falcons that game as they moved to 8-5 SU and maintained control of their playoff destiny. New Orleans and Carolina both won yday, but if Atlanta wins out, then they will repeat as NFC South Champs as they play those two teams the final two weeks. After some midseason struggles, Matt Ryan and company have won four of their last five and the defense has allowed 20 pts or less four times. Tampa has lost three straight and last week fell "at the gun" (last second FG) at home to Detroit. That result all but ended their season and it's fair to question how motivated the home dog will be here. Aside from a 30-20 win over Miami on 11.19, the Bucs have failed top 21 pts in any of the last seven games. They are averaging only 17.8 PPG at home this year. Even worse, on the defensive end, stud DT Gerald McCoy is out w/ a biceps injury. He led the team in sacks w/ five and the rest of the defense has just 12 on the year. (They rank last overall in sacks). TB's defense had no answers for Julio Jones in that first meeting, allowing him 12 catches for 253 yards. Atlanta's defense just held NO to 306 total yds, including only 50 on the ground. 8* Atlanta |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black. |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
8* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:05 ET): When we think of these teams, we think "defense," but that may be a misnomer as the Rams' offense has put up the second most points in the NFL, topped by only the Eagles team that beat them last week (in fact, the number of points the Rams lost by - 8 - represents the total difference in pts scored between the two teams). Fantasy players know that Russell Wilson - not Carson Wentz - is the top QB this season. Seattle is also off a loss, and a high-scoring at that, as they fell 30-24 in Jacksonville. This is somewhat of a tough spot for the Seahawks as they flew all the way across the country last week and back. Both teams are down key defensive personnel. So I'm on the Over here. Usually, in the second matchup of the year between division foes, I lean towards the Under. There's a familiarity present that typically - but not always - leads to less points being scored. But I don't think that will be the story here. First off, the 1st meeting (in LA) was only a 16-10 final in favor of Seattle. It was a fairly fortunate win for the Seahawks as they were outgained 375-241, but forced five turnovers. It was a very frustrating result from the Rams' offense's perspective. There were four different drives they moved the ball inside the Seattle 25-yard line, only to come away w/ no points. The Seahawks' defense that QB Jared Goff and company will go up against here is much different and not for the better. Already two different "Legion of Boom" members (Sherman, Chancellor) are out and now linebackers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright may join them on the sidelines. Wagner in particular would be a massive loss. The Rams' strength on the defensive side of the ball comes against the pass rather than the run. That's good for them b/c Seattle struggles to run and almost entirely relies on Wilson's playmaking. But they get a break in that the Rams are also down a top DB, Kayvon Webster, and already to struggle defend tight ends. That could mean trouble w/ the Russell Wilson-Jimmy Graham combo. With the Rams' offense ranking #2 in points scored league-wide and having scored 67 pts the L2 wks, they should certainly hold up their "end of the bargain" here, especially w/ the Seahawks having allowed 400+ yds in B2B games. As for Seattle, they average 28.0 PPG at home. 8* Over Rams/Seahawks |
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12-17-17 | Packers +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay |
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12-17-17 | Jets +17 v. Saints | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points. For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State UNDER 62.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -108 | 224 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State (8:00 ET): This is our third and final matchup between Conference USA and the Sun Belt on Saturday and wouldn't you know I've got you covered w/ plays on all three! Middle Tennessee was a bit of a disappointment this year, which can be tied to key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, notably ones to QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. They really struggled to score w/o that "dynamic duo," though Stockstill is now back and the offense averaged 36 PPG in the L4 games. (James remains out). But be aware that the return of Stockstill (coach's son) also coincided w/ the easy portion of the Blue Raiders' schedule. Three of the teams they faced during that stretch were: Old Dominion, Charlotte and UTEP, all of whom are among the very worst teams in the country. So I'm not expecting MTSU's offense to have a "banner day" here in the Camellia Bowl. Take the Under. Arkansas State blew its chance to finish w/ at least a share of the Sun Belt reg season crown when they lost to Troy in the final game. It was a brutal loss, one that saw them fall victim to multiple non-offensive scores by the Trojans, not to mention ASU had a MASSIVE edge in total yards (606-293!). The Red Wolves gave up the lead w/ only 17 seconds remaining (lost 32-25) after taking it w/ two TDs of their own in the final three minutes. It will be interesting to see how ASU performs here off such a brutal defeat. Will they be motivated or will there be a hangover? There is a chance MTSU comes in as the more motivated side here being that they are looking to snap a four-game bowl losing streak and are playing less than 300 miles from campus (game is in Birmingham, AL). These are old SBC foes and the last time they played was five years ago w/ ASU winning 45-0 in the swan song for now Auburn HC Gus Mahlzan. There's been an incredible amt of turnover at the head coaching position here in Jonesboro (4 in 6 years!), but now in his fourth year here, Blake Anderson is a good man for the job as he has the most wins (31) ever in program history for the first four years of a tenure (of course, he could be gone soon too!). Anderson has a top-notch QB to lean on in Justice Hansen, who threw a SBC record 34 TD passes this season. But like Middle Tennessee, be aware of the numbers ASU put up in games vs. non-bowl teams. The Red Wolves' five highest scoring efforts of this season (all 37+ pts) all came against atrocious opponents, such as LA Monroe, Lafayette, Ark Pine-Bluff, Coastal Carolina and GA Southern. Their one win over a bowl opponent came against New Mexico State! Both defenses here allow fewer than 25 PPG and I look for this to be a much lower scoring game than anticipated. 8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions -5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
8* Detroit (4:30 ET): This line has come down during the week, presumably due to the Bears "huge" upset win over the Bengals last week. It was 33-7 in favor of the Monsters of the Midway, who were six-point dogs in what ended up being - easily - their largest margin of victory of the season. Chicago has faceplanted (i.e. lost outright) both of the two times they've been favored in 2017, but are a respectable 6-4 ATS as a dog (w/ four outright wins). However, I do not see them winning B2B games and with the number being so short, I'm going w/ the Lions in a game they almost "have to have." The Lions escaped Tampa Bay last week w/ a 27-24 win (won on a last second FG) and enter this game at 7-6 SU, one game behind of the final Wild Card spot. Having already suffered losses to both Carolina and Atlanta, the margin for error is almost non-existant now for the team from the Motor City. Fortunately, they have had Chicago's number in recent seasons. Going back to the 2013 season, they've taken eight of the nine head to head matchups in this NFC North rivalry. That includes a 27-24 win back in Wk 11 where they spotted the Bears a 10-pt lead on the road. Interestingly, the Lions were three-point road favorites that game. The market certainly seems to have overadjusted here considering the switch in homefield advantage. Chicago is not a strong offensive team as they average only 16.0 PPG on the road. Last week's effort is not indicative of the entire package here as rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky may very well have the worst group of receivers in the league to throw to. Note that they'd topped 17 pts only once in their previous six contests. Last week was their best performance of the season, easily, so I wouldn't look for them to come close to duplicating it. As for Detroit, they are averaging a healthy 26.8 PPG at home and QB Stafford showed little to no effect from his injured hand LW when he threw for nearly 400 yards. Four receivers had at least 64 yards. The Bears have lost the last six times they've been in a revenge situation, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 8* Detroit |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 219 h 32 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl. This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | Top | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 217 h 53 m | Show |
10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late. Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts UNDER 40.5 | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Broncos/Colts (8:25 ET): Thursday Night Football should probably be done away w/ entirely, for a number of reasons, the least of which is matchups such as this one. It's fair to label both the Broncos and Colts among the very worst teams in the league, particularly Indy. Denver at least won last week, though that snapped an eight-game SU and ATS losing skid where the team rarely led, let alone was "in the money" (i.e. covering). However, they did dominate the Jets last week (from start to finish) in a 23-0 shutout. The defense is still good here (top 10) and deserves ALL of the credit for the fact the team is still actually outgaining its opponents over the course of this season. But the offense remains putrid, something that is not exclusive in this matchup. Take the Under here. Denver still only averages 17.6 points per game as they've cycled through three different starting QB's this season, none of whom appear to be viable options at this level. Trevor Siemian has been the most consistent of the bunch, but that's not saying much. Even in victory last week, the Broncos still only gained 273 total yds of offense and you'd have to go all the way back to Week 1 (when they scored 24 pts) to find the last time they topped last week's 23. Incredibly, the Colts are even more inept offensively as they average only 16.3 PPG, though they were not in a good situation last week playing in the snow at Buffalo (lost 13-7 in OT). They actually did gain 163 yards rushing, but that was on 46 attempts and even though this game is indoors, they won't be gaining as many yds over land this week as the Denver defense is tied for #3 in the league at stopping the run (allowing 89.5 YPG). With one team shutting out its opponent last week and the other playing in a blizzard, I shouldn't have to tell you that both teams are coming off an Under here. In fact, Indianapolis' last five games have all stayed Under the total. Earlier, I mentioned how the Broncos have not topped 24 points in a game this season. The Colts did twice, but those games came against Cleveland and San Francisco (both winless at the time) early in the year. Having been held to 20 pts or less in five straight games and facing what is still a Top 10 defense, I don't expect much from Jacoby Brissett and company Thursday night. Denver, meanwhile, averages a putrid 13.5 PPG on the road. Fortunately, there is that defense, which allowed just 100 yards TOTAL last week! The week before (vs. Miami) saw the two teams' defenses account for 18 pts of scoring. That won't be happening again. Oddsmakers can't make this O/U low enough, in my estimation. 10* Under Broncos/Colts |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 47 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Patriots/Dolphins (8:30 ET): New England will be w/o star TE Rob Gronkowski (suspended) here, but it figures to matter little against a Miami team that should feel extremely fortunate to have five wins this season. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in most, if not all, consequential offensive categories and that includes being last in yards gained (292.6 per game) and 27th in points (17.4). Prior to LW's 35-9 thumping of the Broncos (more on that in a moment), all of Miami's previous wins had come by six points or less. Going against a resurgent Patriots' defense, we probably should not expect much from this Dolphins' offense tonight. That being said, their last seven games have all gone Over the total and that's the way I'm playing this one. Reports of the Pats' demise were greatly exaggerated. They did start out "only" 2-2 SU w/ the defense giving up 30+ points in all four games. But since then, it's been eight consecutive victories, tied w/ Pittsburgh (who they play next week!) for the longest active streak in the league. During the win streak, the defense has not allowed more than 17 pts in any game. Still, I'm a bit leery of buying "too much" into this "transformation" as the Patriots' D continues to allow plenty of yards per game (375.7). With or w/o Gronk, however, there is no questioning Tom Brady and this offense. They lead the league in yards per game (413.1) and in the first meeting vs. Miami (two weeks ago), it was 35 points and 417 yards that were put up. One of the reasons I'm not overly concerned w/ the Gronk suspension here is that in the 1st meeting, the Pats were highly successful at the running the ball, gaining 196 yards on 38 carries. Miami actually averages 25.2 PPG at home, a full TD over their overall scoring average. Because they lost a home game to London, they've played only five times here all season. But in each of the last four, they've scored at least 20 points. If they hit that benchmark here tonight, I have no doubt that the Over is coming in. Last week's game vs. Denver was a bit odd in that there were two safeties (both for Miami) and two non-offensive scores (1 per side). Take that stuff away and it would have been a far lower scoring game. But Miami did gain 367 total yds and had success running and passing the ball. The home game before that (vs. Tampa Bay), they gained a season-best 448 yds (only to be undone by FIVE turnovers). Again, seven straight Overs for this team. 10* Over Patriots/Dolphins |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 129 h 54 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:30 ET): Given that the Steelers were going to be on a short week, I thought this line opened way too high, so the fact that it's come down a couple point during the week is not surprising on this end. Even post-move, there's still a ton of value on the Ravens, who have the better point differential of the two teams. Plus, Pittsburgh played a very physical game Monday night at Cincinnati, losing LB Ryan Shazier (best wishes to him!) in the process. Now they've got to deal w/ another physical AFC North rival, one that is much better than the Bengals team they barely beat six days ago (last second field goal). Baltimore's defense has allowed the second fewest number of points in the AFC, trailing only Jacksonville. Take the points. This is also a legit revenge spot for the Ravens, who were humbled up in Pittsburgh back in Week 4. That 26-9 defeat is simply not indicative of where these teams are at currently, however, as the first meeting was a horrific situation from Baltimore's perspective. They were just one week removed from an awful showing in London where they were drubbed by Jacksonville 44-7. Having no bye week after a London game is rare and it definitely affected the Ravens adversely. Since that loss, Baltimore has gone 5-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by only a field goal. Last week's 44-20 blowout of Detroit was their third consecutive victory and while that game didn't get "out of hand" until late, it was still an impressive win nevertheless. With three forced turnovers against the Lions, Baltimore is now +14 in TO margin this year and that's #1 in the entire league. If Week 4 could be termed a "horrific situation" for Baltimore, the proverbial "shoe" is now "on the other foot" here. Pittsburgh not only is w/o its top linebacker (Shazier), but emerging WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is also suspended for his (dirty hit) on Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict (oh the irony there!) Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have lost their top CB (Jimmy Smith) for the rest of the regular season. But what I'm more focused on here is the run defense, which is unlikely to allow anything close to the neighborhood of the 144 yds gained by Le'Veon Bell in that 1st meeting. Over the L5 weeks, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 67 rushing yards per game. 8* Baltimore |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 59 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): It appears as if rumors of the Seahawks' demise were greatly exaggerated. They shot back into the thick of the NFC Playoff race last week w/ a very impressive Sunday night victory over the Eagles, 24-10, a game in which they were in the rare role of home dog. I believe that there's a case to be made that Russell Wilson, and not Carson Wentz, is the true league MVP this year. With the once-vaunted Legion of Boom (secondary) ailing, Wilson is carrying the offense and the team. This week presents a new challenge, in the form of a cross-country visit to face ascedent Jacksonville, but it's one that I feel the Seahawks will be up for. I again point to this team's track record as an underdog, which is now 6-5 ATS L11 w/ five outright victories. In many ways, the Jaguars are building their team in the same fashion Seattle did. The Jags' strength is clearly the defensive side of the ball as they've given up the fewest number of points in all of football. In fact, they've allowed 25 fewer points on the season than every other team! Turnovers have played a big role in this year's improvement as well as they are #2 in the league in TO margin at +12. They also have a front seven that should - on paper - dominate the suspect Seattle offensive line. But I come back to the most significant edge the Seahawks have in this matchup - and it the QB position w/ Wilson over Blake Bortles. Seattle's defense remains very good, mind you. Don't expect Jacksonville to score a ton of points Sunday. The last three weeks, Jacksonville has faced Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The offense gained fewer than 300 total yds against both the Browns and Cardinals. Against the former, they were very fortunate to cover and they lost to the latter. Last week, they did beat up on a direction-less Colts team. But the Jags have injuries on the defensive side of the ball now too, namely DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Telvin Smith. Those would be huge absences, if one or neither played. RB Leonard Fournette has also been in and out of the lineup recently w/ ankle issues. Again, Seattle just beat the supposed "best team in the league" last week and did so handily, by two touchdowns. The last time Jacksonville beat a team that currently has a winning record was a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh where the defense scored two touchdowns. 8* Seattle |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Raiders/Chiefs (1:00 ET): There was a time when the thought of a tight, three-way race for AFC West supremacy would have been considered unfathomable. At least one that involves the Chargers, who were 0-4 SU at one point while the other three teams all started 2-0 or better. The Chiefs were 5-0 SU and thought to be the best team in the league at one point. But that was a mirage as they were being outgained the whole time and a stunning fall (lost six of seven) has opened the door for both Oakland and Los Angeles to overtake them. All three teams enter the week at 6-6 SU, making this game absolutely crucial (Chargers host Washington). Oakland took the first meeting, 31-30, in what was an absolute thriller, won on an untimed down. But I expect the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. Take the Under. Oakland's offense has been nowhere near as prolific as it was last year, scoring more than 21 pts just three times in the L10 games. The KC game, a Thurs night home game, was their highest scoring effort of the season. I'm not buying this team as being "back" considering their last three wins were against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants, and all by a TD or less. Last week vs. the Giants, it was a 10-7 game entering the 4th quarter. Yes, the Chiefs' D is w/o CB Marcus Peters (suspended), but the Raiders' offense may likely be w/o WR Amari Cooper (concussion). Oakland's last three games have all stayed Under the total w/ them averaging fewer than 18 points per game. Meanwhile, it's all going wrong for the Chiefs right now. The offense finally woke up last week, scoring two early TD's and finishing w/ 31 points. But the defense let them down, making Jets QB Josh McCown look like an All-Pro. The 38-31 loss was KC's fourth in a row, the last three all by a TD or less. The previous three had seen them score just 36 points total, however. The defense has allowed 20 pts or fewer in more half the games this season, so again, I have every reason to believe that this week will see far less scoring than that first meeting. It's also all but assured the KC offense will see its production decrease from last week (and the 1st meeting), especially w/ the cloud of uncertainty hanging over QB Alex Smith. Could there be a Patrick Mahomes sighting? 8* Under Raiders/Chiefs |
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12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:00 ET): As down as I was on the Texans coming into the year, and especially in the wake of the DeShaun Watson injury, you may find it a bit "odd" that I'd be so strongly behind them here. But so much of this play is about the opponent and my desire to play against them. The 49ers are off a win, just their 2nd of the year, 15-14 over the Bears last week. The notion of that team winning B2B games, on the road no less and in an early start time, seems far fetched. Now give credit to San Fran for last week as they absolutely deserved to win the game (outgained Chicago 388-147 w/ 23-8 first down edge), but they last won B2B games back in 2014. Since that time, any time they have been off a win, the next game has resulted in a double-digit loss (w/ one exception). Since Watson was lost for the year, Houston is just 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS. They return home this week following B2B road loss to Baltimore and Tennessee, two potential playoff teams. This week's opponent will be the Texans' weakest since a win over Cleveland. While 1-5 SU on the road, Houston is 3-3 SU at home and outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. They actually outgained Tennessee last week, 384-344, and it was a misleading final (24-13) due to the Titans scoring a very late TD. Much maligned QB Tom Savage even threw for 365 yards, completing 31 of 49 passes. The Texans' point differential being only -13 indicates to me they've played better than their record. As a favorite, the Texans are 14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS the L3 seasons including a perfect 4 for 4 straight up when laying three or less at home. As for the 49ers, they are 2-10 SU and already thinking about next year. But there's some optimism here due to Jimmy Garoppolo now being the QB. They did win his starting debut, but only 15-14, and didn't score a single touchdown. In their last 22 road games. the Niners have just three wins. So again, B2B wins seems highly unlikely. In five of the last six games, they have not topped 15 points! In 8 of 12 games this year, they have not topped 15 points! Sure, the majority of those were w/o Garoppolo, but last week was. This is a team being outscored by more than a full TD per game on the year. My own power rankings have this spread above a touchdown. 10* Houston |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy UNDER 46 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 114 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Army/Navy (3:00 ET): Games between the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have a history of staying Under the total (29-8-1 since '05!), which really shouldn't be a surprise given the style of offense these teams run. The run-heavy approach leads to the clock running far more often than not and these games are usually low possession affairs. Furthermore, the fact that the defenses face this type of offense in practice makes preparation far easier. So, I wasn't shocked to see the O/U line for this year's Army-Navy tilt bet down as soon as it opened. But this is a case where oddsmakers can't make the number low enough. None of the last five matchups have seen more than 41 total pts scored. Take the Under. We all remember what happened LY as Army ended its historic 14-game losing streak in the rivalry w/ a 21-17 win as four-point underdogs. Putting aside the history for a moment, I still can't believe Army was getting points in that spot as it was a HORRIBLE situation for Navy, coming off a loss in the AAC Champ Game the Saturday prior. Army had its best team ever under Jeff Monken LY and was off a double bye. Once again this year Army is off a double bye (last played on Nov 18th!) and they now have a chance to exceed LY's win total as they come in at 8-3 SU. Navy is just 6-5 SU, off B2B losses to Notre Dame and Houston. In both games, the Midshipmen failed to top 17 points. Army's scoring average is way up this year (31.2 PPG), a high in the Monken-era. But that's a little skewed due to games against lesser competition such as FCS Fordham and Rice. In five of their 11 games, they've scored 21 pts or less, including the Air Force game, which they won in shutout fashion (21-0!). Their last game (52-49 loss to North Texas) was a wild one, but that type of game has zero chance of being repeated here. Navy has seen the Under go 5-1 this season outside of Annapolis. Their game vs. Air Force was a wild one (48-45), but the AFA also threw for a stunning 257 yds that day. Army has attempted a grand total of four passes in its last three games. For some reason, both teams chose to pass a lot against Temple, but other than that there's no instance of Army throwing for more than 80 yds in a game this year. Four games, they haven't had a single passing yard! 10* Under Army/Navy |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 60 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:25 ET): The events of last week (Saints win, Falcons lose) have conspired to make this line "jump the fence" w/ New Orleans now favored on the road. It will be interesting to see where it eventually settles (I'm writing this Weds morning), but regardless, I'm on the Falcons at what I feel is going to be a tremendous price. It doesn't happen all that often (more than you think though!), but the defending NFC Champs have been lethal as home dogs the past few seasons. They are 7-1 ATS in the role dating back to the 2013 season w/ five outright wins. That includes a SU win LY over Carolina (48-33). Bottom line is I don't see Atlanta dropping B2B home games, not w/ the stakes involved. From here on out, it's all division games for the Falcons and they'll probably need to win AT LEAST three of them to get back into the playoffs. In two weeks, they'll be at New Orleans, then close then season here at home vs. Carolina, a game which could very well determine the final playoff entrant in the NFC. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a three-game win streak which had seen the offense average almost 32 PPG. They were held to only three field goals by the vaunted Vikings defense while going a paltry 1 for 10 on third downs, largely due to facing a lot of unfavorable situations. New Orleans' defense transformation (much improved!) has been the subject of a lot of chatter this year, but their unit is not as strong as Minnesota's, regardless if CB Marcus Lattimore returns here or not. At the same time, Atlanta's top CB (Desmond Trufant) is expected back from a concussion. Then again, defense was certainly not the issue LW vs. the Vikings as they allowed only two touchdowns. Stopping the Saints' vaunted run game (Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara) will be a challenge, but here at home, the Falcons have been pretty stingy as they give up only 17.8 PPG. In fact, for as much talk as there's been about the Saints defense, Atlanta's is basically allowing the same number of points per game. Homefield advantage on a Thursday night matters, at least when we're dealing with two competitive teams and I see the Falcons winning one that they "need to have." 10* Atlanta |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 43 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:30 ET): Along with the Patriots, the Steelers have somewhat "pulled away" from the pack in the AFC. They enter this game at 9-2, which is two fewer losses than every other team not named "New England." Tonight they look to continue their mastery of a Bengals team they have beaten five consecutive times, including 29-14 back in Week 7. I had the Over in that game, noting that (at the time) they were the only team in the league yet to have a single Over on its resume. The Under is still 8-3 in all Steelers' games this season, but all of a sudden the vaunted offense has awoken w/ B2B 30+ point efforts after not crossing that threshold even one time in the first nine games. I like the Over in the rematch as well. Cincinnati started its season by being the first team since the 1930's to not score a single TD in its first two home games. That prompted a change at OC and since then, they've been okay, going 5-4 SU overall. They are off their second highest scoring game of the season, a 30-16 triumph over the winless Browns. Now, the Bengals two highest scoring games of the year have both been against Cleveland. Other than that, the offense has not topped 24 pts in any other game. But something to look for here is the propensity of the Steelers' secondary to give up big plays. Last week vs. Brett Hundley and Green Bay, Pittsburgh allowed THREE touchdown passes of 39+ yards. That was after giving up FIVE pass plays of 40+ yds the previous three weeks. So don't be surprised if Bengals' WR AJ Green has a big game tonight. Also, RB Joe Mixon is coming off a career-best day LW. On the flip side, the Steelers shouldn't have much trouble scoring in this game either. The Cincinnati defense ranks 28th in the league at stopping the run (126.6 YPG allowed), so Le'Veon Bell should have a big night. Yes, WR Antonio Brown (best WR in the league) is listed as questionable w/ a toe injury. But, whether he plays or not, does NOT affect this selections. It's a low O/U line, one that can easily be exceeded. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:25 ET): This line hit its high point mid-week and I immediately jumped on it as even in a "down year," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with at home. This is a VERY rare instance of them getting points here and Wilson is 3-0 ATS all-time as a home dog, winning all three times straight up! Overall, Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as a dog of any kind in his pro career. Furthermore, the Seahawks have been leading or within one possession of the lead in all but TWO of their previous 115 regular season contests! Think there's value now? I realize that the Eagles are "flying high" (pardon the pun) this year and everyone wants to bet them, but the market has now shifted too far with them. Take the points and I give Seattle a great shot at the outright upset. Philadelphia absolutely annihilated the Chicago Bears last week, winning 31-3 w/ a massive 420-140 edge in total yards (24-8 in first downs). That win puts them in rarified company as one of only NINE teams (Since 1989!) to post four consecutive victories by 20 points or more. The previous eight teams, not surprisingly, did NOT fare well their next time out, posting an ATS record of just 2-6. This makes sense as oddsmakers will begin to attach a much higher price on a team after they consistently cover. The Eagles have now covered EIGHT consecutive games, but those four straight 20+ pt wins came against the 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys (no Elliott) and Bears. None of those are likely playoff teams and three of them are going to be picking very high in next year's Draft. Truth be told, the Eagles have played a VERY easy schedule to this point. The only team they beat that I'd consider a "lock" for the playoffs was Carolina and that was a five-point game. Seattle's four losses this year have been by a COMBINED 20 points. Shockingly, they have lost their last two home games. One was to Washington, but they actually held a commanding 437-244 edge in total yards in that game. Then there was the Monday nighter vs. Atlanta, their first game w/o Richard Sherman. (They also finished w/ the edge in total yds in that one!). Despite being 3-2 SU at home, the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by nearly 100 YPG here. Wilson is actually having just as good a year as Wentz (check the stats). Plus, under Pete Carroll, the team is 13-2 SU in home night games. You won't get a better price on the Seahawks at home as long as the current regime remains. Take the points. 8* Seattle |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The NFC South has emerged as the strongest division in the sport this year w/ three teams currently 7-4 SU or better (Tampa Bay the exception). The two teams meeting here are tied at 8-3 w/ the Saints holding the tiebreak due to an outright win in Carolina back in Week 3, 34-13, as five-point underdogs. That win totally transformed the Saints' season. Going into the game, they were 0-2, having been outscored 65-39 and giving up over 500 YPG. But something happened after upsetting the Panthers and it was on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans would go on to win eight straight games, allowing 17 pts or less six times during that stretch. They did lose last week, 26-20 at Los Angeles, but IMO that's created some value here on them at home. Lay the points! With New Orleans losing last week, Carolina is now the hottest team in the division as they're on a four-game win streak. However, three of those wins did come at the expense of Tampa Bay, Miami and the Jets, three teams that aren't going anywhere. I did have the Panthers LW vs. the Jets, but it was a fortunate cover due to a late FG and they were outgained 391-299. They also actually trailed early in the 4Q. While Carolina does have the slight edge defensively in this matchup, their offense averages about a full TD less per game compared to New Orleans. The Week 3 loss was one of five times this year that the Panthers' O failed to top 20 points. Both teams come into this game a little banged up. New Orleans, on the defensive side of the ball, is really hurting - especially in the secondary. But CB Marcus Lattimore has not been ruled out for this game. However, perhaps the biggest absence for this matchup is now on the Carolina defense as DE Charles Johnson was suspended on Friday (4 games) for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Panthers allow roughly 1.6 more rush yards per attempt w/ Johnson off the field, which is significant. As a reminder, they are getting ready to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This year's Saints' offense can also run the ball a lot more effectively than past seasons, thanks to rookie Alvin Kamara. The Panthers offense is likely going to be w/o TE Greg Olsen and possibly RB Christian McCaffery. Though Carolina has been good as a dog this year, I think it's notable that New Orleans has won all seven games in which it has been a favorite, covering six times. This is a pretty short price on them at home. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-17 | Broncos v. Dolphins +1 | Top | 9-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This is a battle of two teams that are sinking fast while being disasters at the betting window. Denver's 3-1 start is a distant memory as they had an early season bye and have since lost seven in a row, not covering a single time in the process. In fact, and this is downright shocking, they have been "in the money" (i.e. covering) for roughly only 6% of actual game time! Miami, whose fall from grace was fairly easy to predict, has taken a similar path. They were 4-2 SU at one point, but it was a fraudulent record to say the least, and they've now dropped five straight. Four of those losses have been by double digits. So something will have to give here and w/ QB Jay Cutler cleared, I believe it's the Dolphins in better position to take this relatively "meaningless" Week 13 matchup. Denver does not have a viable starting QB on its roster. They've tried three different options - Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch - and none of them have had any real success. After cycling through, it's back to Siemian this week. Siemian will have to get used to a new offensive coordinator here (Bill Musgrave) as when he started earlier in the season Mike McCoy (since fired) was the one calling plays. Compounding matters is the fact that Siemian is one of several Broncos that has contracted the flu this week. Broncos backers will continue to lean on the fact this team has outgained its opponents this season, but the defense is not what it was the L2 years and the offense just can't score points. Only once in the last seven games has Denver topped 20 points and it was in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. They average 14.4 PPG on the road. Miami has an even worse offense, but at least their scoring average jumps to 22.4 PPG at home and they have Cutler w/ a better array of weapons. Cutler is facing a former team here, so he should be motivated. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are a respectable 4-5 SU when Cutler starts. Getting back to Denver's defensive decline, they now rank 28th in the league in points allowed. They are also now w/o their top defensive back, Aqib Talib, due to a suspension (for fighting Raiders' WR Michael Crabtree). I just can't see why this line has "flipped" during the week (Denver now favored) as the Broncos are 0-5 SU/ATS this season on the road. 8* Miami |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): Not sure Chiefs' stock could be any lower than it is right now following B2B outright losses as big favorites, to the Giants and Bills. Well, it would sink lower if the team falls victim to the "New York trifecta" this week and loses outright to the Jets. Shockingly, money is in on the J-E-T-S even as short home dogs here. I understand why as KC appears to be falling apart at the seams. What was once an insurmountable lead in the AFC West (team started 5-0) has now been trimmed to just one game as they've lost five of six overall. But these are the Jets they're playing, a team I successfully targeted last week w/ the Panthers and walked away w/ the cover. With all their recent struggles, KC is laying a shorter number and I think there's value here. Facing a Bills team that had given up a total of 135 pts the previous three weeks, KC was shockingly out-first downed 13-1 in the 1H last week. This Chiefs' offense has been a disaster the L3 weeks, scoring just 36 points total and the cries for Patrick Mahomes to replace Alex Smituh have grown louder. It is stunning to look back at how Smith was being considered an MVP contender back when the team was 5-0 w/ wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I reiterate that this is an extreme "buy low" situation. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less. Also, teams off an outright loss as DD favorites have come back to cover at roughly a 66% clip the following week since '05. Yes, I know the Chiefs were in this exact same spot LW (coming off the loss to the Giants), but can lightning really strike twice? I look for KC to run the ball effectively here against a Jets' run defense that is nowhere near what it once was. Last week, the Jets allowed 145 yds rushing to Carolina. I'd like to see the Chiefs recommit to the run game after attempting just 19 rushes in two of the last three games. The Jets' offense remains inept as long as Josh McCown is the QB. Note that while KC is +31 in 4th quarter point differential, the Jets are -73. Even w/ the offensive slump, the Cheifs are still 7th in the league in scoring. The Jets are 20th. By the way, the Jets have also lost five of their last six games including losses to Miami and Tampa Bay. Unlike KC, they have no 5-0 start to lean on. 8* Kansas City |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State -5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night. The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State |
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12-02-17 | Fresno State +9 v. Boise State | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn -2 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 48 m | Show |
8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn |
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12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC UNDER 59 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Stanford/USC (8:00 ET): From a pure power rankings perspective, there does appear to be some value here on Stanford, as most rankings I follow actually have them as the better team on a neutral field. Then there's the fact that the North Division Champ has OWNED the Pac 12 Title Game, winning all six instances. But, at the same time, there's "no running from" what the Trojans did to the Cardinal back in September when they won 42-24 at the Coliseum (as a 3.5-pt favorite). Furthermore, there is no denying - that situationally - this spot favors USC. After playing 12 straight reg season games w/o a bye, the Trojans are off one here and that's a big advantage. So even though I was on Stanford LW (big win over Notre Dame), I'm refraining from making a play on the side. Let's look at the total instead. USC had over 600 yds total offense (623 to be exact) in the earlier win over Stanford. That's an almost unheard of number against a David Shaw defense. It's not the only time USC has gone over 600 yds this season (did it to Arizona) nor is it the lone time going over 40 points (did it four times total). But here would probably be an appropriate time to bring up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Earlier I spoke of the bye being USC's "friend" in this spot. But what if they start slow? Also, there is the fact that QB Sam Darnold, good as he is, turns the ball over more than you'd like to see. He already has three more interceptions than he did all of last year. Plus, his overall completion percentage is slightly down. I think Stanford's defense is going to play a lot better in this rematch and won't be surprised to see Southern Cal fail to finish off some drives, which is always key in betting an Under. Bryce Love did play for Stanford last week and that was huge as the Cardinal upset Notre Dame 38-20 in Palo Alto. That was their highest scoring game in more than a month. Three of the previous four games saw the Cardinal offense fail to top 21 pts. It should also be noted the Stanford was outgained by ND (415-328), only to win the turnover battle, 3-0. QB KJ Costello threw a career-high 4 TD passes, something I seriously doubt we'll see again here. Stanford's final 2 TD drives both started inside the ND 30-yd line. Defensively, both touchdowns allowed were long pass plays, which is uncharacteristic for this defense. Love is of course still battling an ankle injury, which is likely to limit his effectiveness Friday night. I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game here compared to the first meeting. 10* Under Stanford/USC |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys UNDER 44 | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Redskins/Cowboys (8:25 ET): This has the feel of almost an "elimination" game in the NFC playoff picture. We already know that the Eagles are a virtual lock to win the East as they have a five-game edge over both of these teams w/ only five left to play. The loser of this game will drop to 5-7 SU and in a top-heavy conference, that's tantamount to death. Both last played on Thanksgiving w/ Dallas getting blown out by the Chargers (third straight loss) while the Redskins snuck by the lowly Giants. Incredibly, the road team has won seven of the past eight meetings, including Dallas going to D.C. earlier this year (as a three-point favorite) and winning 33-19. The L4 matchups have also all gone Over the total (O/U line was 49.5 for that first meeting). These will not be the same two teams that faced off back in Week 8, specifically on the Dallas side. We know all about the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and what that has done to the offense. In the three games w/o him, the Cowboys have scored a TOTAL of 22 pts, no more than nine in any one game. Additionally, they have gained an average of just 235 yards per game during that three-game stretch. Elliott ran for his season high (150 yards) the first time around vs. Washington and had a pair of touchdowns. Since then, the Cowboys offense has scored a grand total of 2 TD's in the three games and they came 11 quarters apart. After taking a 7-0 lead on Atlanta in the first quarter back in Week 2, they did not find the end zone again until the 4th quarter on Thanksgiving (already down 16-0). Nor is Washington the same here as they were last month. They have been besieged by injuries, particularly along the offensive line. That has obviously had an adverse effect on both QB Kirk Cousins and the running game. Last week, they gained just 322 total yards against the Giants and it should be noted that was a 10-10 game w/ just under four minutes to play. Washington has also been hit hard w/ RB Chris Thompson and TE Jordan Reed, two key components of the passing game, both out. With the line having "flipped" (Washington now favored), there's no value there, but w/ the total there is (even though it's several points lower than it was in that 1st meeting). Dallas' passing game ranks only 27th, so they're really limited in what they can do and the same can be said for Washington (due to injuries) as they have been held to 20 pts or fewer three times in their last five games. 10* Under Redskins/Cowboys |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 38 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Texans/Ravens (8:30 ET): Only in the AFC and only in 2017 could both the Texans and Ravens both be in playoff contention. Both teams have put forth truly pedestrian seasons. Baltimore, off a 23-0 shutout of Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, is now 5-5 and may actual control its own playoff destiny. Houston is 4-6 SU and even after last week's 31-21 win over Arizona, they're "up against it" due to being w/o their #1 QB, DeShaun Watson. Offense is both teams' albatross, but as a result, we have a very low total to work w/ Monday night. Conventional wisdom says to go Under here, but it won't take much to go Over either. I'm going "unconventional." Even w/ Tom Savage under center, the Texans were still able to put up 31 points and 357 yards last week. A big reason for that was rookie D'Onta Foreman emerging w/ a pair of fourth quarter TD's. Now, it likely will be a challenge to run the ball against a Ravens defense that has allowed 45, 71 and 75 yards over land the L3 games. But, for the year, that same group allows 135 YPG rushing at home. So they can be run on. I admit that I am worried about Savage facing a secondary that leads the league in interceptions. But this also works both ways. We've seen this Baltimore defense find the end zone before, which is always a boon to Over bettors. Only two teams - Jacksonville and Detroit - can claim more defensive scores than the Ravens' five. Furthermore, they (Baltimore) are the ONLY team in the league to have BOTH a kickoff and punt return for TD to their credit. Houston may not have any special teams TD's to its credit, but like Baltimore they have four defensive scores. So again, I'm almost "expecting" a non-offensive TD in this game. The Ravens have delivered two shutouts in the last three games, thereby "skewing" their overall point differential for the season. The offense has scored 20+ pts in five of the last six games and before last week, the team's previous five games all went Over the total. QB Joe Flacco "leads" the league's worst passing attack, but here he'll be facing a secondary that is 26th against the pass. So Monday night very well could be his "coming out party." 10* Over Texans/Ravens |
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11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): These two proud franchises (combined for 10 Super Bowls) seem to be trending in very different directions right now. Pittsburgh, ten days removed from trouncing Tennessee 40-17, has won five in a row and should probably be considered the top team in the AFC right now. Green Bay's season went down the drain when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they're just 5-5 SU following an ugly, shutout loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's rival (Baltimore) last week (23-0). As a result, we now have a pointspread that would have deemed unfathomable at the start of the season for this Sunday night matchup. I'll take the points, noting the Packers covered for me as dogs two weeks ago, winning outright in Chicago. Since Rodgers went down, the Pack are just 1-4 SU w/ the lone victory coming against the Bears. They've failed to cover the spread in all four losses, but the marketplace has also been slow to react to just how signifcant the dropoff from Rodgers to Brett Hundley is. However, that being said, last week marked the first time under Hundley that GB lost a game by more than 13 points. It's not as if they've been losing to bad teams either as all four defeats came against teams w/ winning records, two of them being division leaders. While they were shutout, the problem last week vs. the Ravens was five turnovers. They actually outgained Baltimore 265-219. Obviously, it's tied to the QB situation, but this is an unprecedented pointspread for the Packers under HC Mike McCarthy. Before the win over the Titans last Thursday, Pittsburgh had not topped 30 points in any game this year! It also should be noted that they were the beneficiaries of a +4 TO margin vs. Tennessee and total yardage was almost identical (only +33). I did call for their highest scoring effort of the season vs. Tennessee (had the Over), but the bottom line is when you're averaging only 22.7 PPG, it's difficult to cover a spread as large as this one. Over the L3 games. the Packers defense has allowed just 64, 55 and 58 yards rushing. Anything similar would almost certainly keep them in this game until the very end. 8* Green Bay |
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11-26-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 40 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): I believe the better team is getting points here and I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Rams, even labeling them as a top five team. But the Saints are on a different level right now w/ eight consecutive wins after an 0-2 SU start. Something you may have heard before is that New Orleans is just the third team in league history to have a win streak of six or more games following an 0-2 start to the season. The other two both won the Super Bowl. Now, I definitely remember playing against these Saints last week as they never were "in the money" as TD chalk against Washington. In fact, they needed a miracle rally in the final minutes of the 4Q just to force overtime, where they won 34-31. But they're not favored this week and that's key. The Rams had a win streak of their own (four games) snapped LW w/ a humbling 24-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. After scoring a TD on the opening drive, the Rams never scored again. In fact, they were held to just 179 total yards the rest of the way. This is an offense that came in as the highest scoring in the entire league, mind you, something that has come as a shock considering how poor they (specifically QB Jared Goff) looked a year ago. But that was under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay has engineered a remarkable turnaround here. But the Rams offense isn't the only unit that's pulled off a remarkable turnaround in 2017. The Saints defense, long the albatross holding QB Drew Brees and the offense back, has improved exponentially this season. They've pulled it off through a variety of off-season acquisitions, both via the draft and free agency. Incredibly, before the comeback last week vs. Washington, New Orleans had allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of its last seven games! Now there are some significant injuries for the Saints on the defensive side of the ball, the main one being DE Alex Okafor tearing his ACL and being done for the season. But let us not forget about Brees and that offense, which gained 535 total yards last week! They're averaging 474.7 YPG the L3 weeks. They also now have a running game to lean on w/ the "two-headed monster" of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Note the Rams' defense is only 20th against the run and hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of rushing attacks. While the Saints defense has lost Okafor, the Rams offense is w/o WR Robert Woods, a key loss. Key is that this will be the first time since Week 3 that New Orleans is an underdog. Good value as they are 14-6 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ nine outright victories. The Rams are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5 times they have been listed as home chalk of three points or less, including 0-2 this season. 8* New Orleans |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): In the upcoming offseason, I think we'll take a look back at Week 11 as the seminal moment of the Bills season. It's when HC Sean McDermott gambled and elected to bench QB Tyrod Taylor (despite overachieving) and instead start the unproven Nathan Peterman. The gamble was a disaster as the Bills lost 54-24 to the Chargers w/ Peterman throwing FIVE interceptions on just 14 attempts. By the end of the game, Taylor was back in, but you have to wonder about his relationship w/ the head coach and organization moving forward. Meanwhile, a lot of people are starting to wonder about the Chiefs. Remember when we all thought they were the best team in the league? Well, after that 5-0 start (including Wk 1 thumping of the Patriots), they've dropped four of five, including an embarrassing defeat LW (in OT) where they were DD favorites over the Giants. Most will view this as a big number, and it is, but it's justified as KC is in far better position to bounce back this week. With five of their final six opponents currently sporting a losing record, I think the Chiefs are in fine position to win the AFC West for a second straight year. Now, you might have thought the same going into last week's game in New York. Oddly, despite high winds, Andy Reid elected to pass the ball 60% of the time. The offense did gain 363 total yards, but was held w/o a touchdown (three field goals of 31 yds or less) and turned the ball over three times. The good news is that those problems are correctable. Normally, the Chiefs are winning the turnover battle. I expect them to here. I also expect them to increase their sack total from last week, which won't be hard b/c it was 0 against the G-Men. Buffalo could be w/o its starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, again. This is also the right defense to be facing right now as the Bills have allowed 135 pts the L3 games, which is the fourth most over any three-game span in the league since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger! Truth be told, when Buffalo was winning (started 5-2!), they were doing it w/ "smoke and mirrors." They have been outgained in every game since Week 1 and rank 27th in yards per game since Week 9 and 29th in yards allowed. They've been outgained by nearly 115 YPG during that stretch and are -65.0 YPG for the season. This is a below average football team, playing on the road w/ a shaky QB situation. Not good. While the Bills have lost three in a row by double digits, only one of the Chiefs' four losses have been by more than six points. They're at home, off an embarrassing defeat and just a better all-around team compared to Buffalo. 10* Kansas City |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): From a power rankings perspective, this may not look like a slam dunk, but I'll side w/ what is the far better team, laying a short number. Both the Panthers and Jets are off byes. But that's basically where the similarities end. Carolina is 7-3 SU and in prime position to get back to the playoffs, even in a crowded in NFC South. The Jets are 4-6 SU, a record which has surprised many as they were pegged to be the worst team in the entire league coming into the season. Where I see the mismatch here is Carolina's defense (holding opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages) against a Jets offense that doesn't top 20 pts very often. The Panthers have a number of ugly wins already in 2017 and this will be yet another. They'll cover the spread though. This Carolina defense has been really impressive so far as they are #2 in the league in yards allowed (trailing JAX by less than 3 YPG for top spot) and also top five in points allowed (18.0 per game). They shouldn't find it too difficult stopping a Jets' offense being quarterbacked by journeyman Josh McCown. In the game before the bye, the Jets had only three points before scoring a late TD against the Bucs (lost 15-10) and for the third time in four games didn't even gain 300 total yards. This matchup (Carolina D vs. Jets O) is every bit the mismatch that it appears to be on paper and we're in very good shape on this half of the ledger. The Jets are 24th in the league in YPG differential. The Carolina offense is also now getting going w/ an avg of 439 YPG the last three weeks. They scored 45 pts in a near 600-yard effort vs. Miami in the last game. Now Cam Newton gets his favorite target (TE Greg Olson) back and the Jets happen to struggle at defending the tight end position, having allowed at least 67 yds to opposing TE's in 6 of 10 games thus far. Furthermore, the running game has gone over 200 yds in B2B games (Newton had 95 vs. Miami). The Jets are only 23rd in the league against the run, a shell of the unit they were when they had Sheldon Richardson clogging up the middle. This is an ideal matchup for the road favorite, who is 60-24 SU vs. teams w/ a losing record in the 2H of the season (55-28 ATS) including eight consecutive victories. 8* Carolina |
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11-25-17 | Notre Dame v. Stanford +2.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 35 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-25-17 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma OVER 67.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 91 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma (3:45 ET): With one team (WVU) w/o its starting QB (lost to injury) and the other (Oklahoma) w/o its (likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield) for an undisclosed amt of time due to his sideline behavior LW, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to call for an Under. But I've always fashioned myself as a "contrarian" of sorts and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see more points scored than expected. Stripped of his captaincy, Mayfield could miss as little as a series. Kyler Murray will start the game and has experience playing two years ago while at Texas A&M. This Sooners' offense leads the nation w/ 588.7 yards per game and is #5 in scoring at 44.0 points per game. They've gone over 40 four of the last five weeks, the exception seeing them score "only" 38 against a very good TCU defense. West Virginia is in a bit of a dicier situation w/ QB Will Grier lost for the year. They scored only 14 pts last week in an upset loss to Texas in Morgantown and that was w/ Grier playing a quarter. They gained a season-low 295 total yards. But that Texas' defense is a lot more stout than Oklahoma's. In Grier's absence, in steps Chris Chugunov. He threw for 189 yards in relief of Grier last week and I expect a MUCH better showing here now that he's not being thrust into playing w/o preparation. A full week of practice can go a long way. Even after last week's 41-3 thumping of putrid Kansas, OU is still allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. It appears as if I'm not the only "contrarian" when it comes to playing this total as despite a majority of tickets being written on the Under, the O/U line has gone up during the course of the week. That's usually a good sign. I think we can look for the Sooners to score plenty here as Mayfield should get into the game sooner rather than later. They have three receivers w/ 649+ yards and two running backs that will have 600+ yards rushing. With West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen largely runs a "plug and play" system, meaning any QB he's recruited should pan out. This is an offense that has averaged 544 YPG on the road this season. Last year, the game was 56-28 (in Oklahoma's favor). The year before, here in Norman, it was 44-24 (again in OU's favor). In fact, four of the previous five meetings have seen at least 68 total pts scored. 8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma |
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11-25-17 | Alabama -4.5 v. Auburn | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 50 m | Show |
8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama |
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11-25-17 | Ohio State -11.5 v. Michigan | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 21 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here. The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season. The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State |
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11-24-17 | South Florida +11 v. Central Florida | Top | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 67 h 51 m | Show |
8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida |
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11-24-17 | Baylor v. TCU OVER 51 | Top | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Baylor/TCU (12:00 ET): These two Texas rivals are in VERY different places right now. Baylor HC Matt Rhule inherited a complete mess, left over from the Art Briles' regime. A Bears team that won 10+ games four times from 2011-2015 dropped to 7-6 SU last year, a direct result of Briles' misdeeds. We knew it would be "tough sledding" for Rhule in year one, but I don't think that anyone Waco foresaw a 1-10 record w/ ZERO Big 12 victories. Yet that's the reality entering this, their season finale. Meanwhile, coming off their own down year (6-7 SU in '16), TCU was on my shortlist for Most Improved Teams in the country (they were my top win total pick at Over 7.5) and sure enough, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have delivered w/ a 9-2 SU record. A win Friday and they would earn a rematch w/ Oklahoma in the Big X11 Championship Game (back this year!) next week. Given what's at stake for TCU and the state of Baylor, the pointspread is predictably high here. It actually may not even be high enough as according to my own power rankings, there are at least couple points of value w/ the Horned Frogs here. But even though I cashed Oklahoma last week minus a huge number, I typically don't like laying this many points and won't in this situation. If there's one commonality these teams share (besides both hailing from Texas), it's that they've been going Under a lot in Big XII play. TCU, thanks to not allowing a single second half TD in the last five games, has gone Under in seven straight games. Baylor is riding a four-game Under streak. That confluence has created a situation here where the O/U line is probably a lot lower than it ought to be and thus Over is going to be my play Friday as TCU should have no problems scoring here and could possibly go Over the total by themselves. Playing w/o QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson (out for year), the Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 27-3 last week in Lubbock. Despite the lopsided victory, they were actually outgained as they threw for only 85 yards. Of course, when you allow only three points, you don't need to pass much. The offense did run for 200+ yards, which is impressive. Here in Ft. Worth, TCU averages 43.4 PPG for the season, so like I said earlier, they are more than capable of sending this game Over, almost by themselves. HC Patterson has said that Hill is probable to play. Teams are relishing the opportuniity to beat up downtrodden Baylor right now and last year saw the Horned Frogs hang 62 on them in Waco. The Baylor defense is allowing over 450 YPG for the season. As for getting "any help" from the Baylor offense, I suspect that when the game inevitably gets out of reach late, there will be opportunities for them to score. They do come in averaging 24.5 points per game. 10* Over Baylor/TCU |
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11-23-17 | Giants v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -119 | 57 h 57 m | Show |
8* Over Giants/Redskins (8:25 ET): The Giants have just two wins this year, but both came as double digit dogs against an AFC West opponent (Denver, KC). The latest came last week, 12-9 over the Chiefs in overtime (upset of the year?). Sadly, this week's opponent is not a DD favorite nor is it an AFC West team. It is a familiar foe though, that being NFC East rival Washington, who itself is trying to pick up the pieces following losses in four of the last five games. They do own wins over the Rams and Seahawks (both on the road!) and should have beaten New Orleans LW, only to wilt in the final minutes of regulation and lose in OT. (So both teams are coming off OT games and playing on a short week). My "gut" says Washington wins here, but I don't want to lay points w/ a team that is only 1-4 ATS at home. Therefore, we turn to the total. It's been well-established that the Giants' defense is nowhere close to the unit that we saw last season. I can't say that I'm surprised. They made the quantum leap from 30th to 2nd in DVOA last season and thus regression was all but inevitable. Aside from the two wins, they've allowed 24 or more points in six of the seven losses, Week 1 being the exception. Remember that two weeks ago, they allowed 476 yards and 31 points to the previously winless 49ers. Last week, Big Blue was the beneficiary of some windy conditions as the Chiefs still elected to throw the ball roughly 60% of the time, playing right into the underdog's hands (good ol' Andy Reid). Quite frankly, this Giants' defense is lucky to "only" be allowing 24.7 points per game this year as they are 31st in yards allowed. Washington's last two games have seen both they and the opponent score 30 or more points. Obviously, both games went Over. Last week was a brutal loss as they lost 34-31 to the Saints in overtime after taking a 31-16 lead w/ just over six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. They gave up both TD's in the final three minutes of regulation (and a 2-pt conversion) and wound up allowing 535 total yds of offense. There is hope here for the beleaguered Giants offense as the 'Skins are 31st in scoring defense at 26.6 PPG allowed. Both teams are very banged up right now (on both sides of the ball), but I see this one going Over the total. 8* Over Giants/Redskins |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +16.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that. Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 58 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): We've certainly seen a significant market shift on the Cowboys as over the L2 weeks they've been blown out by both the Falcons and Eagles. While so much attention is being paid to the absence of RB Ezekiel Elliott, it is actually the absences of LT Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee that are really killing the team. In the case of the latter, the defense is allowing 2.3 yards more per rush w/ him off the field and has forced eight fewer turnovers. Sadly, he'll again be out here w/ this being a short week. Smith is listed as questionable currently. So why take a chance on America's Team on Turkey Day? Well, for starters, this line opened at -4. So there's some definite value here. Also, the Chargers aren't the Falcons or Eagles. I'll go w/ the value play here. All of a sudden, based on one win and the lack of depth in the AFC, the Chargers are being discussed as a potential playoff team (despite a 4-6 SU record). Look; no one has driven the Bolts' bandwagon harder in the last couple seasons. But I'm sick of getting burned. If you think now is a curious time NOT to be on them, then consider LW's 54-24 win was a byproduct of what turned out to be the most egregious NFL coaching decision in recent memory, that being Buffalo HC Sean McDermott electing to start Nathan Peterman, who turned in simply the worst performance by an NFL QB that I've seen in some time. As bad as Dallas has looked the L2 weeks, QB Dak Prescott is NOT going to throw 5 INT's in 15 attempts in one half of play. No way. Look for this game to be decided in the trenches. If Smith could play, it would be a HUGE boost for the Cowboys and their running game. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the league, giving up a ghastly 139 YPG on 4.9 yards per carry. Dallas is more than capable of running the ball w/o Elliott. On defense, the 'Boys should benefit from what remains a very predictable Chargers' offense that runs far too often in obvious situations. Prior to last week, LA had topped 21 pts in a game only twice. It's a pretty big leap to have this team now favored on the road. Almost without fail, their games end up being close (seven decided by one score). This will only be the fourth time they have been favored this season and the first on the road. As a favorite of any kind, the Chargers are just 5-10 ATS the L3 seasons, losing nine of those games outright. 8* Dallas |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The injury to Aaron Rodgers all but ended Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North this year, thereby leaving a huge void that one of the other three teams had to fill. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their own injuries to go 8-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the division. They last lost in Week 4 (more on that in a moment) and since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers, the latest being a very impressive 24-7 victory over the similarly surprising Rams. But the Purple People Eaters are by no means a "lock" to win the NFC North as we approach Thanksgiving. That's because the last team to beat them, Detroit, is "hot on their heels." Currently two games back, the Lions could deal a huge blow to the Vikings by sweeping the season series for a second consecutive year. They beat them LY on Thanksgiving as well, making this all the more a revenge spot for Minnesota. I'll lay the short number. I readily admit that Detroit is a team that I expected to regress in 2017. That's because last year's 9-7 SU record did not include a single victory over a fellow playoff team and also required a NFL single-season record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks! Speaking of single-season records, last year's Lions defense happened to allow the highest completion percentage in a season in league history! The team hasn't had quite the good fortune in close games this season, but did pull one out last week, 27-24 over the Chicago Bears. That game saw the Lions get outgained (398-352) and rally back from an early 10-0 deficit. The always reliable Matt Prater kicked a 52-yard FG w/ 1:35 remaining for the win, though the team had to survive a missed FG attempt by Chicago as time expired. While three straight wins sounds impressive, note the QB's that the Lions have beaten are: Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky, two rookies and a first-year starter. Minnesota's season was thought to be toast when they had to turn to veteran journeyman Case Keenum, especially when RB Dalvin Cook was also lost for the year. But Keenum is having himself a career year. He's completed 68.2% of his passes over the L3 weeks. The defense also deserves a ton of credit, especially for the job it did against the Rams last week, holding them to only 254 yards, which is well below what they had been averaging. For the year, this Vikings' D ranks 5th in yards and 4th in points allowed. Despite losing to Detroit three straight times, Mike Zimmer's defense has allowed just four touchdowns in those games. That Week 4 meeting, a 14-7 loss, is when Cook was lost for the year and it was just Keenum's third start. Minnesota had the slight edge in total yards, but was -3 in turnovers. Zimmer is an incredible 30-13 ATS since taking over as the HC here and I look for his team to end the Lions' four-year win streak on Thanksgiving. 10* Minnesota |
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11-21-17 | Miami-OH v. Ball State +18 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 9 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:40 ET): They are "dropping like flies" in the Seahawks secondary right now (no Sherman or Chancellor), but at home I believe that Russell Wilson and company can carry this team to victory. It's a virtually unprecedented price range here on Seattle in their own stadium as it will be the FIRST time since 2012 that we can catch them laying less than two points here. I can only assume that has to do with this injuries in the secondary, but free safety Earl Thomas is still present and he's always been the most important piece there anyway. After suffering a misleading loss two weeks ago to the Redskins (w/o Thomas), Seattle bounced back w/ a win last Thursday against division rival Arizona. The extra time to prepare here is huge and Atlanta is most certainly NOT what they were last season. This is a really big game in the NFC Playoff Picture where it's looking like 10 wins may be a requirement for the postseason. Seattle is only one-half game back of the Rams (who lost yday) in the NFC West and they currently own the tiebreak due to a head to head win back in Week 5. The Falcons' situation is a bit more precarious. They have two teams ahead of them in the NFC South currently and even a win tonight would not change that. But what it would do is tie them w/ Seattle for the final Wild Card and obviously give them a much needed tiebreak. Atlanta got a big win LW when they whipped another injury-riddled team, Dallas, 27-7 at home. Of course, the Cowboys were w/o Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The task will be much tougher here, not only b/c it's on the road, but they'll also have to contend w/ Wilson. If it were last season, I'd be far more concerned about the injuries in the Seattle secondary facing this Falcons offense. But it's not last season and Matt Ryan and company clearly miss the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan. It just hasn't been the same offensively for LY's NFC Champs and note that they will also be down a key piece, that being RB Donta Freeman. I can't see the Falcons running the ball for much yardage tonight against what is an outstanding Seattle defensive front. But I think that the key will be Wilson, who is having a MVP-type season as only Tom Brady has thrown for more yards. The home field edge is also very big, especially in a night game and I look for the "12th man" to help the Seahawks pull out an important victory. 10* Seattle |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points. Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins. Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas |
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11-19-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 24-54 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +9 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 42 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points. During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet. It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington |
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11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers OVER 37.5 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 40 m | Show |
8* Over Ravens/Packers (1:00 ET): Green Bay treated me last week as I was sure to note the Chicago team they were playing had not been favored in almost a year and not over the Pack dating back to 2008! Sure enough, despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers, GB pulled the "upset," winning 23-16 at Soldier Field. Now they're back at Lambeau to host a Ravens team fresh off its bye. Baltimore is only 4-5 SU in what has been an "up and down" season thus, but they're more than just alive in what is shaping up to be a top-heavy AFC where there's probably going to be at least one pretty ugly playoff entrant (maybe them?). So much of the focus in Baltimore has been on an offense which ranks 30th in the league, but they've faced a pretty impressive slate of defenses thus far and the Over is still 5-0 their last five games. Take the Over here. Four times this season, the Ravens have had to faced a top 10 defense (Jags, Steelers, Bears and Vikings). They've lost all four games and averaged only 14 PPG. But they're 4-1 SU otherwise and averaged 26.8 points in those games. The Green Bay defense is certainly nothing special, ranking 18th overall. So I look for more of the "good" Baltimore offense this Sunday. Also, do not discount the likelihood of a defensive score (or two!) here, facing an inexperienced QB like Hundley. Two weeks ago against Miami (who was starting Matt Moore), the Ravens returned two interceptions for touchdowns. In a game against Chicago earlier in the year, they got two special teams TDs. Four of the last five games, this team has put at least 20 points on the board. The Packers had not topped 17 pts since Hundley took over for Rodgers, until last week. Now, off a win, I wouldn't be surprised if the QB started playing with more confidence. Though its unlikely they'll make the playoffs w/o Rodgers (NFC is deeper than the AFC), the Pack aren't finished yet. Their last two games have gone Over as have five of the previous seven. Defensively, they've allowed at least 239 yards passing each of the last five games. Last week, they gave up 297 to Mitchell Trubisky, which was 133 more than the rookie's previous career high. So this could be a big game for Flacco. Baltimore has not been a healthy team this year, but off the bye, they're as healthy as they've been at any point in 2017. This is a low O/U line, the likes of which they've been topping of late. For Green Bay, it's the lowest of the season to date. 8* Over Ravens/Packers |
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11-18-17 | UCLA v. USC -16 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 5 m | Show |
10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!). Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC |
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11-18-17 | Kentucky v. Georgia UNDER 51 | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Kentucky/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for UGA to be laying this many points as they come in off a humiliating loss LW to Auburn, 40-10, as a defense which ranked among the best in the country was torched for almost 500 total yards. That loss sent the Bulldogs tumbling down from their #1 ranking in the CFP to #7. Now they find themselves in the unenviable spot of "biding their time" between now and the SEC Champ Game (will play either Alabama or Auburn) while hoping just to skirt by the next two opponents. Normally, I would consider a play plus the points here, but I don't have that much respect for a Kentucky squad that is nowhere near as good as its 7-3 SU record might indicate. Therefore, to the total we go and I'm thinking Under. The SEC is having itself a down year. There are five Top 25 teams in the league, four of them in the West. Kentucky has been one of the real beneficiaries of the "down year" as they've avoided virtually all of the big names from the West (save for Miss St, who clobbered them 45-7). Strangely, despite the better than expected straight up record, the 'Cats are only 3-7 at the betting window. They did cover LW in an impressive 44-21 win over Vanderbilt (as 2.5-pt road dogs), but as we saw in the trip to Starkville, I'd expect a pretty substantial decline in offensive production here. Mississippi State held them to only 260 total yds in that game and let's also note UK was held to only 228 total yds by Eastern Michigan and 254 total yards by Southern Miss. Georgia's defense should be supremely motivated after what happened last week. Despite the shellacking LW, the Bulldogs still do rank #2 in the land in def efficiency, which should tell you how well they'd performed prior to the one loss. In fact, it was just the second time all season that they'd allowed more than 19 pts in a game! They are giving up averages of only 14.5 points and 277 yards per game for the season. So a Kentucky offense which has played on a natural surface only twice all year and averaged just 15.0 PPG in those contests, should be held in relative check here. The only thing holding UGA back is the offense, which can run the ball effectively, but is still being led by a relatively inexperienced signal-caller. The gameplan was very conservative last week and it cost them. Kirby Smart knows he can get away w/ being conservative again this week though. QB Jacob Fromm completed less than 50% of his passes LW and for just 184 total yards. 8* Under Kentucky/Georgia |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma -35 v. Kansas | Top | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 100 h 35 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma |
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11-18-17 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 0-39 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern! Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota |
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11-17-17 | UNLV v. New Mexico | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot. UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
10* Over Titans/Steelers (8:25 ET): Hey! We actually have a relatively attractive Thursday night matchup for once. Don't think for a second that Tennessee is as fortunate to be 6-3 straight up as their negative (-8) point differential might suggest. That's still owed to one, ugly 57-14 loss to Houston back when the Texans still had DeShaun Watson at QB. Also. the Titans lost Marcus Mariota to an injury in that game. Since Mariota returned, they've won four straight (three by four points or less!) and "looked the part" of a playoff team. What I do find interesting here, however, is the Steelers' 8-1 Under record. They have an offense that many thought would lead the league in points per game, but instead they're averaging only 20.8 PPG and have exceeded that average only twice in the past six games. Yet, I'll take the Over here. Why? Read on! Last week marked that vintage lackluster road game that Steelers' fans have become all too familiar with during the Mike Tomlin era. As double digit favorites, they actually trailed the Colts 10-0 before coming back to win 20-17. They didn't even score until the final seconds of the first half when Chris Boswell kicked a 41-yd FG. Boswell then won the game w/ a second field goal w/ no time remaining. Despite what you're just read, I'm still a buyer on this offense. You can't really blame Le'Veon Bell holding out anymore as he currently is the league leader in rush yards (840), even though roughly 10% of his attempts have gone for zero or negative yardage. He is facing more defenders stacked in the box, but (theoretically) that should start to open the passing game. Tennessee, on the other hand, has gone Over in six of its last eight games. They've topped 30 points three or more times during that span and that's out of seven games w/ Mariota in the lineup. Last week, they rolled up over 400 total yards in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati that required a fourth quarter comeback. They had 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. They would have scored more, but fumbled at the goal line after an 11-play, 6:13 drive. Also, in the first half, kicker Ryan Succop missed for the first time inside the 50 in 48 tries after another long, 11-play drive. This is a pretty low total considering the Titans have allowed 20 or more points three of their last four games. The one time they didn't was against Cleveland. 10* Over Titans/Steelers |
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11-16-17 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 66.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Tulsa/South Florida (7:30 ET): It's been a rather steep decline for Tulsa this season, but that was largely to be expected. Last year, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 SU including a 55-10 bowl win over Central Michigan. But that team also boasted a 3,348 yard passer, a 1629 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers. All of those players departed and as a result, they come into this game already w/ no shot at bowl eligibility as they're just 2-8 straight up (0-4 in games decided by six points or less). Yet, they still actually average a healthy 31.0 PPG. The problem has actually resided on the defensive side of the ball where they're giving up 38.0 PPG. That's going to be an issue facing South Florida, but w/ a big pointsread, the better move is to the Over. USF came into 2017 w/ a new head coach (Charlie Strong) and visions of grabbing that coveted "Group of 5" spot in a "New Year's Six" Bowl. They still have a shot at doing so, but a home loss to Houston several weeks back really put a damper on those aspirations. Still, the Bulls do control their own destiny as they'll play at undefeated UCF next Friday. Win their final two regular season games + the AAC Title Game and it will likely be USF that is in a major bowl game. Willie Taggart certainly did not leave an empty cupboard for Strong as the offense is averaging 39.1 PPG (actually slightly down from LY) while the defense gives up just 19.9 PPG, which is way down from last year. These schools have met only one time (2014) and in that game, USF pulled off the greatest comeback in its history, rallying back from a 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30. I expect similar fireworks Thursday night in Tampa. Save for the one loss to Houston, this USF offense has been remarkably consistent w/ 31 or more points scored in every game. I don't anticipate Quentin Flowers and company to have much trouble moving the ball on this woeful Tulsa defense, which is giving up 46.6 points and nearly 600 yards per game on the road. For the year, USF is averaging just over 500 YPG and they topped 600 in the last game w/ QB Flowers setting a career best w/ 385 yards passing. It's all a question if Tulsa can put enough points on the board as well and I think they can. They have the 15th best rush offense in the country (248.7). Unfortunately, USF is 7th (277 YPG) in that same department. The USF offense should be able to move the ball at will here while Tulsa will move it enough times to get the game Over the total. 10* Over Tulsa/South Florida |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year. Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH |
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11-14-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State +18 | Top | 42-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent. Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 38 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 ET): Calling the Dolphins "the worst 4-4 team in NFL history" might sound like a meaningless distinction, but it's certainly not hyperbole. That .500 record comes in the face of an ugly -63 point differential, which ranks right near the bottom of the league. This sort of overachieving is nothing new for this franchise, at least recently. Last year, they may have qualified for the playoffs, but were a complete fraud in doing so. They were outscored again, despite going 10-6 SU in the regular season. This all may make it sound like I'm poised to play against them here, but in anticipation of some close losses forthcoming, I'll actually refrain from doing so. As you can see, the oddsmakers share my view of these Fish and it's a heavy price to pay to fade them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the total and it's the Over I like here. Carolina enters this game at 6-3 SU, but has hardly been impressive as they've outscored opponents by just a nine-point margin over the course of this season. They've scored just 40 pts over their L3 games and average only 18.8 PPG for the year. However, an offense which could not run the ball at all suddenly exploded last week against Atlanta for 201 yards over land. But it's been a defense that ranks near the top of the league in scoring that's really carried the team this year. They allow just 17.7 points and 274.1 yards per game, ranking in the top five in both categories. On paper, you have to like this matchup for the Carolina defense as they face a Miami offense that is - statistically speaking - the worst in football. That dynamic would have you thinking Under, which is the way the L3 Panthers games have all gone. But prior to that they went on a 4-game Over streak. Miami's season has been just the opposite w/ them starting 5-0 Under and the L3 games all going Over. So something will have to give here. This will be the lowest O/U line for either team this year, assuming it holds (it should), and could wind up the lowest O/U line for any NFL game YTD. (The first two Texans' games both had O/U lines of 38.0). The Dolphins have been shut out twice this season, but one of those games still went Over as they allowed 40 to Baltimore, two weeks ago, also in primetime. Four of the five all-time meetings between these teams have stayed Under, but I'm going to call for Carolina to score more than expected here and Miami will score enough to help send the game Over. 10* Over Dolphins/Panthers |