Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Georgia/Alabama (8:00 ET): The SEC Championship Game was a 41-24 final, but I don’t see the rematch (for the National Championship) being that high scoring. For starters, Alabama doesn’t have WR John Metchie this time. Metchie suffered a season-ending injury in the first meeting, after hauling in six catches for 97 yards. Also, note there was a defensive TD scored in the SEC Championship, which probably won’t happen again. Both defenses looked dominant in their respective semi final victories. Both those games went Under and I’m banking on this one to do the same. I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. The Tide are the only offense to score multiple touchdowns in the same game against Georgia. Now it should be pointed out that Alabama’s defense also looked pretty ferocious against Cincinnati, holding them to just six points and 218 total yards. For the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 19.2 PPG. With this being a second meeting, there’s greater familiarity between the two sides. Probably not a lot of surprises from either offense. 8* Under Georgia/Alabama |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss (8:45 ET): After seven straight Unders to end the regular season, I expect Ole Miss to come out “flying” in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night. The same can be said for Baylor, whose last four games all went Under. This number is shockingly low for two teams that combine to average almost 68.5 points/game. I won’t be the least bit surprised if this one goes Over by the end of the third quarter. Matt Corral of Ole Miss is one of only four QBs in the country to throw for 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10. In addition to that, the Rebels are the only team in America with at least four 500+ yard rushers. Overall, this offense was incredibly balanced and wound up fourth in the county in total offense, averaging 282.4 YPG passing and 224.2 YPG rushing. The Rebels average 35.9 PPG. Baylor has a really strong defense, but has not faced an offense as good as Ole Miss all season. Fortunately for the Bears, they should also be able to put plenty of points on the board here. They average 32.5 PPG overall. Look for the Bears to be able to run the ball very effectively in this game; they average 5.2 yards per carry. They’ll have to, in order to trade points with Corral. 10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame UNDER 46 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame (1:00 ET): Both of these teams were hoping to make the College Football Playoff, but instead had to “settle” for a first-ever meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s only loss this year was to Cincinnati, at home, something that all but ensured the Fighting Irish could not slip past the Bearcats into the top four. Oklahoma State had two losses, both close, one at Iowa State and then the other in the Big 12 Championship Game to Baylor. These teams have combined to go 18-7 ATS, so I’ve got no interest in the side, but I do think we’re getting a low-scoring game here. Take the Under. Oklahoma State has the third ranked defense in the country in terms of yards allowed (278.4) and is eighth in scoring (16.8 PPG). They are great both against the run (5th in FBS) and the pass (12th). They do a great job on third down, allowing conversions only 26.1% of the time, which is second best in the country. But perhaps most impressive of all is that the Cowboys are #1 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Notre Dame does average 35.3 PPG, but their high-scoring games were against mostly bad teams, and they are just middle of the pack in yards gained. Also, RB Kyren Williams won’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. So don’t expect the Fighting Irish to score a ton on Saturday. Similarly, Oklahoma State only averages 22.8 PPG away from Stillwater. Notre Dame has a pretty stout defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG and over the L10 games, they held seven opponents to 16 points or less. The last four games saw the Irish allow just 23 total points and that includes 14 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. Not only is the Under 6-1 in Oklahoma State’s last seven bowl games, but it is a perfect 8-0 their L8 bowl games as a dog. Notre Dame is 4-0 Under its last four bowl games. 8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee UNDER 65 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
10* Under Tennessee/Purdue (3:00 ET): After ending the regular season with a 5-0 Over run, Tennessee finished in a three-way tie (with Rice & La Tech) for the highest Over percentage in the country this season. As a result, the O/U line for the Music City Bowl has definitely been “on the move,” reaching a high point of 64.0 as of this writing. But this is where I’ve got to step in and go “the other way” as Purdue will be missing its top two receivers on Thursday and their games only averaged 48.0 points this season. Without the two top pass catchers - David Bell and Milton Wright - the Boilermakers’ offense won’t come close to resembling how it looked in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State during the regular season. Consider that even with those two in the lineup, Purdue averaged “only” 27.5 PPG. And it’s not like they can turn to a run game which averaged only 2.78 yards per carry, worst in the entire FBS! It’s a completely one-dimensional Purdue offense and the Tennessee defense is catching a big break here with the top two Boilermakers’ receivers being out. Tennessee’s offense also has a prolific passing attack. But they struggle in pass protection, having given up 42 sacks, which was the most among SEC teams. Purdue’s defense is going to be without its ace pass rusher, George Karlaftis, but should still get to Vols QB Hendon Hooker with some regularity. The Boilermakers only allow 20.5 PPG and shut down pretty much everyone with the exception of Ohio State. With the O/U line moving so much, I’m seeing lots of value with the Under here. 10* Under Tennessee/Purdue |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota (10:15 ET): With leading rusher Leddie Brown opting out of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, all of a sudden Minnesota becomes a very bad matchup for WVU. The Golden Gophers’ defense ranks fourth nationally in total defense and is ninth against the run. Without Brown, the Mountaineers are going to heavily lean on QB Jarret Doege, but the problem is Doege’s yards per pass attempt (7.4) ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 and WVU generated only 10 plays of 40+ yards all season. With Minnesota allowing just 4.98 yards per play and 18.3 PPG, WVU will struggle to score Tuesday night. For the Golden Gophers, the running back position was hit hard by injuries, which led to some early growing pains. Still, look for HC PJ Fleck to look to establish the run in this game as Minnesota led the Big 10 in rushing attempts during the regular season. Whether or not that can be an effective strategy remains to be seen, however. West Virginia allows only 129.6 rush yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and 24.3 PPG. Even if Minnesota is able to find some success moving the football, they’ll encounter resistance in the red zone where the Mountaineers’ defense ranks 11th nationally in efficiency. So this should be the rare low-scoring bowl game and I’m taking the Under. For what it’s worth, the total alternated over West Virginia’s last eight regular season games and the last one - a 34-28 win over Kansas that got them bowl eligible - went Over. So if that pattern holds, this game is staying Under. There were five games this year where WVU failed to top 20 points and that was with Brown in the lineup. Only two of Minnesota’s last 10 opponents were able to exceed 16 points. The Under is 12-3 in WVU’s L15 games as a dog while Minnesota has gone Under six straight times in the month of December. 8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State OVER 51 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Ball State/Georgia State (2:30 ET): In last year’s bowl appearance, Ball State provided me with the biggest win of the College Football season. The Cardinals were my 10* Game of the Year going up against undefeated San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. I remember it like it was yesterday. As a nine-point underdog, BSU raced out to a 27-0 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-13 outright victory! While I’m not taking the Cardinals plus the points this time, hopefully this Over play wins just as easily! Now asking Ball State to go Over the total this season hasn’t been easy. Only three of their 12 games have ended up that way. But this is a bowl game - on Christmas Day no less - and defense may certainly be “optional,” not just for the Cardinals, but for both teams. I know that the last three bowl games all stayed Under. But the Over was 9-2 in the first 11 bowls. Then there’s the matter of this being the second lowest O/U line for any BSU game all season. The previous low was 47.5 for a game with Army. It’s interesting to note that while the Under may be 9-3 in all BSU games this season, eight of those would have gone OVER this total. Similarly, Georgia State games averaged 54.0 points this season and at least half would have exceeded this number. There were five games this season, four of them losses, where the Panthers allowed 34 or more points. But their offense also seemed to “peak” down the stretch, averaging 35.7 points over the last three games, a stretch which included a 42-40 upset of Coastal Carolina. 10* Over Ball State/Georgia State |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA UNDER 49.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under UTSA/San Diego State (7:30 ET): The Frisco Bowl is our best postseason matchup yet as we’ve got two Top 25 teams facing off Tuesday night. The pointspread has been on the move as UTSA’s star running back (Sincere McCormick) won’t play here as he prepares for the NFL Draft. The Roadrunners are also going to be without a couple of key players on defense. Were they at “full strength,” there’s little doubt I’d be siding with UTSA in this one as they look for the first bowl win in program history, following a 12-1 SU regular season and C-USA Championship. But I think the offense may struggle here. San Diego State did not have a good showing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, losing to Utah State 46-13 as 6.5-point favorites. The Aztecs played that game short-handed as multiple players were out because of COVID. You’re now likely to see a better representation of the team that was 11-1 SU prior to losing to Utah State 17 days ago. The number of points SDSU allowed in the MWC Championship Game were the most ever under HC Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are #2 in the country at stopping the run and figure to slow down a UTSA offense that will be without its best offensive player. In fact, I’ll argue that San Diego State has the best defense that UTSA will have faced all season. Though the Roadrunners did explode for 49 points in the C-USA Championship Game, that was against a Western Kentucky team that doesn’t play much defense. They’d been held to just 28 PPG in the three games previous to that and that was with McCormick in the lineup. I’m not too worried about a SDSU offense that hasn’t scored more than 28 points since early October. In fact, the Aztecs averaged only 20.8 PPG over the last eight contests. I know that these bowl games have been high-scoring thus far, but not this one. 8* Under UTSA/San Diego State |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Navy/Army (3:00 ET): No surprise here. Over the last 16 College Football seasons, the Under is a preposterous 38-9 when two of the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) face off. That includes a 2-0 mark in 2021 as Army’s game vs. Air Force ended up as a 21-14 win (with overtime!) while Navy’s game vs. Air Force was a 23-3 loss. The O/U lines for those respective games vs. the AFA were a little higher than what we’ve got to work with here, but I’m still sticking with the Under. That’s because taking the Under when Army plays Navy may be the most surefire bet in the sport. It’s cashed 10 straight years and 17 of the last 21. Last year’s 15-0 Army win was the lowest-scoring edition in recent history, but even so, three of the last four meetings have seen 27 or fewer points scored. It’s not difficult to understand why. With both teams running the triple option, the clock is almost always moving as you don’t have to worry about too many incompletions. Both defenses are also uniquely suited to stop, or at least slow down, the triple-option as they face it in practice every day. In the case of Navy, they are only averaging 3.91 yards per carry. So this should be an “easy day at the office” for an Army defense that is allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. The Midshipmen also only average 20.4 PPG. That number was a lot lower before they managed to score 38 and 35 points in the final two regular season games. Before that, they’d only topped 20 twice! Even Army’s offensive production was halted somewhat down the stretch. In four of the last seven games, the Black Knights ran for less than 3.7 yards per carry. The exceptions were Bucknell (FCS), UMass (worst team in FBS) and Wake Forest (poor defense). 10* Under Navy/Army |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh UNDER 71.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): This isn’t the ACC Championship Game anyone expected as it will be the first to not involve Clemson since 2014. It was Wake Forest unseating the reigning six-time ACC Champions in the Atlantic Division, even though they lost to the Tigers 48-27 (in Death Valley) two weeks ago. Over in the Coastal, Pittsburgh took advantage of disappointing seasons from North Carolina and Miami to win its second division title in four years. Both teams enter the game at 10-2 straight up, though Pitt has been better ATS (9-3 vs. 6-5-1). It’s just the second 10-win season ever for WF and the first since 1981 for Pitt. Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is expecting a high-scoring game here in Charlotte. Both offenses are in the top four nationally by averaging just over 42 PPG. Last night’s C-USA Title game had a similarly high total and those teams (Western Kentucky & UTSA) blew past the number. But I expect this game, which is not being played indoors, to go a little differently. This could close as the highest O/U line for any Pitt game under HC Pat Narduzzi. The previous high (72) was the game vs. North Carolina on November 11th and the final score in that one ended up being just 30-23. Prior to last night’s C-USA shootout, taking the Under was quite profitable this College Football season when the O/U line is 70 points or higher. I cashed the Under in last year’s ACC Championship Game (Clemson-Notre Dame) when the number wasn’t quite as high. I think Pitt’s defense is going to make a surprising number of stops in this game while their offense has failed to top 34 points in five of the last seven games. There’s going to be plenty of points scored here, but not as many as the oddsmakers are calling for. With the “world” on the Over, I’m going the other way. 8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh |
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11-27-21 | Texas State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | Top | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St (2:00 ET): Neither of these two teams are going to a bowl. Texas State is 3-8 SU after losing five of six. The Bobcats’ lone win during that stretch was 27-19 over LA Monroe. I do not expect them to deliver a solid effort on the defensive side of the ball Saturday. Outside of San Marcos, Texas State is giving up 36.8 PPG. Of course, that’s not very far off from what they allow overall (34.0 PPG). Three of the last four opponents have gone for 35 or more points. Arkansas State is 2-9 SU and their only win in the last seven games was against LA Monroe, 27-24 as a three-point road dog. The last six Red Wolves games have all stayed Under the total. But it’s important to note that all six O/U lines were higher than this one. ASU has an even worse defense than Texas State, one that gives up a shocking 40.8 PPG at home. They allow 39.9 PPG overall. There have been four different games this year where the Red Wolves allowed at least 50 points. When these teams played last year, it was a wild 47-45 Texas State win in San Marcos as a four-point home dog. Arkansas State is a much more prolific offensive team in Jonesboro this season, averaging over 30 PPG here at home. Texas State allowed five TD passes and almost 500 yards total to Coastal Carolina last week. The last 10 times Arkansas State has been favored, the Over is 7-3. 9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St |
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11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State OVER 44 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 59.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/Utah (7:30 ET): Well, this line should certainly catch your eye. For just the second time ever, we’ve got a Top 3 team getting points against an opponent with two or more losses in the month of November. The only other time this happened was 2010 when underdog Auburn (#2) won 28-27 at Alabama. I do not believe for a second that the Ducks are the third best team in the country, but a win over Ohio State early in the season and the fact they have just one loss (at Stanford in overtime) seems to justify their place among the top four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks end up losing here, but do not want to lay points. Utah currently leads the Pac 12 South, so this could end up being the first of two meetings with Oregon as the teams are on track to meet again in the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Utes are 7-3 SU and on a three-game win streak. They are also on a six-game Over run, putting up a ton of points themselves in the process. Last week it was a 38-29 win over Arizona. But I expect the Utes to struggle to move the ball in this one. Oregon’s defense has allowed an average of just 292.7 yards the last three games and gives up just 22.6 PPG for the season. Not to be overlooked is the fact Utah has allowed an average of only 302.3 yards its last three games. Here in Salt Lake City, they allow just 18.8 PPG. One of the touchdowns that the Utes allowed last week came on a blocked punt. The Under is 6-1 in Oregon’s last seven road games and I’m not convinced the Ducks can continue to convert third downs at their current rate (51.6%!) and this is a pretty high total (2nd highest for Utah all year), given the stakes involved. 8* Under Oregon/Utah |
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11-20-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 38 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
9* Over Illinois/Iowa (2:00 ET): The last eight games involving Illinois have all stayed Under the total. Perhaps the “nadir” for Over bettors came when the Fighting Illini took on Penn State, a game that went to NINE overtimes and still stayed Under. None of the Illini’s Big 10 games have seen more than 38 total points scored and this week they are matched up with the team that has the #7 scoring defense in the country, Iowa, who allows only 16.3 PPG. Yet this O/U line is so low that it is just BEGGING to be played Over. For the season, Illinois’ games average 38.9 PPG. Iowa games average 41.0 PPG. Illinois is coming out of a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to scheme for how they want to attack this Iowa defense. Last week saw the Hawkeyes give up 22 points for the third time in four games. They also allowed 400+ yards for just the second time this season. The Hawkeyes were actually statistically dominated by Minnesota (outgained 409-277), but fortunate to hold the Gophers to three short field goals. Unfortunately though, Illinois won’t have HC Brett Bielema on the sidelines as he’s tested positive for COVID-19. I expect that Bielema’s absence will have a greater effect on the defensive side of the ball for the Illini. Iowa scored 27 last week, it’s most in a game since a 51-14 win over Maryland back on October 1st. Also, don’t discount the Hawkeyes’ defense being able to create takeaways that lead to a score or two. With their lowest O/U line in a game all year, Illinois’ Under streak is due to end here. 9* Over Illinois/Iowa |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Under Bowling Green/Miami (8:00 ET): Bowling Green games have followed an “odd” pattern in 2021. The first five games all went Under. At that point, the Falcons were also a perfect 5-0 ATS with a shocking upset win over Minnesota. But I then chose to go with the Over when they hosted Akron and that hit, starting what is now a streak of five straight Overs. BGSU has won just once in conference play. That was two weeks ago at Buffalo, 56-49, a game where they were 13.5-point dogs. Last week saw them lose 49-17 at home to Toledo, a spot where I successfully faded them as 10.5-point underdogs. Miami needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Assuming they win here (they are large favorites), that would set up a showdown next week with Kent State to determine the winner of the MAC East. So there’s still a lot for the RedHawks to be playing for at this juncture. The team is 4-0 SU here in Oxford this season after it thumped Buffalo 45-18 (as seven-point favorites) last week. The RedHawks have three losses by five points or less this year, so a case can be made that they are better than their record. While I don’t feel like laying the big number here, the chances of Bowling Green scoring a lot of points in this game seem remote. The Falcons were held under 200 total yards last week by Toledo. Take away that outlier effort against Buffalo two weeks ago and they haven’t scored more than 26 against any FBS opponent all season. Miami’s defense allows just 18.7 PPG at home and Ohio is the only opponent since the start of October to score more than 21 pts against them. I also don’t see the RedHawks coming close to matching their own point total from last week. The Under is 7-1 for Miami the L8 times they’ve been off a game where they scored 40+ points. 8* Under Bowling Green/Miami |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
9* Over Arizona State/Washington (7:00 ET): There are some streaks on the line in this one. If you can believe this, Arizona State has covered the spread every time in the L10 meetings with Washington. The Sun Devils have won eight of those games straight up, though they did lose the last one, 27-20 as an 18.5-point pup back in 2018. But I will instead be focusing on UW’s 5-0 Under run coming into this game. That’s resulted in a VERY low total for this week and I’m choosing to go Over here. There is some controversy here on the Washington sideline as they will be without HC Jimmy Lake, who has been suspended for a week due to an altercation with a player last week. That 26-16 loss to Oregon also cost OC John Donovan his job and it’s easy to see why as the Huskies gained just 166 total yards. But I expect the home team to play hard for its interim coach this week and even have some surprising success on the offensive side of the ball. It won’t take much to help send this one Over. Before holding USC to just 16 points last week, ASU had given up 69 points in its previous two games. While the Sun Devils aren’t likely to give up 30+ this week, we don’t need them to. I say that because last week, they gained 427 yards on offense, 282 of those coming on the road. This is an offense that would have a lot more points to its name if not for eight turnovers the last two games. They have averaged more than 400 YPG the last three weeks. Five of the Sun Devils’ last six games have seen 47+ total points scored. 9* Over Arizona State/Washington |
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11-13-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Troy OVER 48 | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy (3:30 ET): So I tried the Over with ULL last Thursday and was unsuccessful. Really, it was never close as the Ragin Cajuns had to come from behind to defeat Georgia State (at home) 21-17. The total was 53.5. But this offense is averaging quite a bit of yardage for a team that’s gone Under in five straight. The last three games in particular have seen Louisiana move the ball effectively (467 YPG). This is the lowest O/U line of the season for the Sun Belt leaders. Looking to remain perfect in conference play, ULL travels to Troy this week. Their hosts have averaged more than 29 PPG in the L4 games, so they can score. Troy’s last three games have all gone Over and this is one of their lowest O/U lines of the season. It’s not THE lowest (as it is with ULL), but it’s poised to close as the 2nd lowest, only ahead of a 43-point total when they traveled to face South Carolina. The Trojans’ offense should benefit from the fact Louisiana’s defense gives up 25.8 PPG on the road, nearly double what they allow at home. Louisiana turned it over on downs - twice - inside the Georgia State 10-yard line last week, so they easily could have scored more points. Troy put up all 31 of its points last week in the first half, so they can definitely score in bunches. The total the last time these teams met (2019) was 74.5! So it’s far cry from that, two seasons later. I just think it’s time for an Over to hit in a ULL game and the Over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five games vs. teams that have winning records. 9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy |
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11-10-21 | Kent State v. Central Michigan UNDER 75.5 | Top | 30-54 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan (8:00 ET): Kent State is coming off a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois, a game where both teams gained more than 660 total yards. Then you’ve got Central Michigan, who is off a 42-30 win at Western Michigan. Looking at those two scores and deciding to go with the Under here may seem a bit crazy, but there were things that happened in last week’s games that aren’t about to be repeated. This is also a very high O/U line, the highest for either team this season. Kent State, who leads the MAC East with a 4-1 SU conference record, used a 31-point second quarter to defeat Northern Illinois last week. They were actually behind 7-0 after the first. But then came big play after big play. None of the Golden Flashes’ five scoring drives in the 2Q lasted longer than 75 seconds. That is insane. A team that averages only 19.6 PPG on the road isn’t about to do that again this week. They are facing a defense that allows just 22.3 PPG at home this season. The difference in Central Michigan’s 42-30 win last week was the Chippewas returning TWO punts for touchdowns. Just like Kent State’s second quarter performance from last week, multiple special teams touchdowns is not something you can expect on a week by week basis. The Chips have played two straight high scoring games, but before that none of their games this season had seen more than 70 total points scored. Similarly, the Over is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but none of the last four have seen more than 65 total points scored. Take advantage of an inflated number here. 8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State (3:00 ET): So UL Monroe has seen the Over hit in each of its last five games, three of which have seen the Warhawks surrender 55 or more points themselves. But this week they are up against a Texas State team that just got shutout last week 45-0 (by Louisiana). Texas State barely even mustered 200 total yards in the contest. Now it’s obviously a big change from facing one of the top Sun Belt defenses to one of the worst. But I do not think the Bobcats are capable of putting enough points on the board to get this game Over the total. Case in point, the week before facing Louisiana, Texas State put up only 16 points in a loss to Georgia State. They come in averaging only 21.9 PPG for the year, which ranks 110th in the FBS. They are 109th in yards per game, so at least they're consistent. Over the last two games, they’ve found the end zone only one time. The good news is that the Bobcats’ defense gets a bit of a respite this week. UL Monroe comes in averaging only 22.3 PPG and that number drops to a rather sad 14.7 when playing on the road (as they are here). So, in sum, while neither teams’ defense is very good, the respective offenses may in fact be worse. Something else I noticed is that this is set to be the highest O/U line for any game this season involving UL Monroe, the team that has gone Over five straight times. Five of Texas State’s games have seen less than 60 total points scored. None of the previous three meetings has there been more than 45 total points scored. The Under is 7-3 when UL Monroe is off an ATS loss. 10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State |
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11-06-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota OVER 44 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Illinois/Minnesota (12:00 ET): There’s a number of teams in College Football that are currently one somewhat improbable streaks. Illinois has gone Under in seven straight games, a run that goes all the way back to the start of September. The only Fighting Illini game this season to go Over the total was the second one, a 37-30 loss to UTSA (who’s still unbeaten, mind you). The opener, which saw Brett Bielema’s team pull a 30-22 upset over Nebraska, pushed. The most “infamous” Illini Under of the bunch came two weeks ago when, despite NINE overtimes, they and Penn State combined for just 38 points. Now, it wasn’t always this way. The Illini’s first three games of the season did average a pretty hefty 58.3 PPG. But it was the start of Big 10 play that brought the downturn in scoring. When facing a conference opponent, Illinois’ games have averaged only 34.5 PPG! That doesn’t include a 24-14 win over Charlotte on Oct 2. Now it should be pointed out that the Fighting Illini have not been facing the top offensive teams from the Big 10. But this week they are taking on a team that has averaged 35 points (by itself) over the L3 games. I have no unearthly idea how Minnesota lost 14-10 to Bowling Green on Sept 25th. What I do know is that the Golden Gophers haven’t lost since. Their only loss besides Bowling Green was the season opener against Ohio State. They scored 41 last week against Northwestern (not easy to do). Now the Gophers did just lose ANOTHER running back (Bryce Williams) to what looks to be a season-ending injury. However, I’m not at all concerned about that. Why? Because the team has had FIVE different RBs go for 100+ yards in a game in 2021! The L2 weeks have seen two freshmen - Thomas and Irving - both go over 100 yards in each game. Illinois’ Under streak ends here. 8* Over Illinois/Minnesota |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 53.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Louisiana is the “forgotten team” in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns came into the season ranked #23 in the country. They lost their first game, 38-18, to a Texas team that was also ranked (#21) at the time. Since then, Billy Napier’s team has taken care of business by winning seven in a row, the most impressive victory being a 41-13 thrashing of Appalachian State here in Lafayette. That’s the only time since the Texas loss where the Cajuns have been underdogs. They also roll into Thursday on a five-game Under streak having just blanked Texas State 45-0 on Saturday. Georgia State is 4-4 SU and a double-digit underdog here, but could provide a “test” to their hosts on Thursday night. The Panthers are on a three-game win streak, having defeated LA Monroe, Texas State and rival Georgia Southern all by a TD or more. Two of those wins came on the road. But what is interesting about this Panthers team is that despite a low-scoring 21-14 win last week at Ga Southern, their road games have been significantly higher scoring this season. Four road games have averaged 61.3 total PPG and that number was obviously much higher before LW’s win. Interestingly enough, though it was a low-scoring final, Ga Southern and Georgia State did combine for more than 850 yards of total offense. The Georgia State defense was exceptionally lucky to force THREE turnovers when backed inside the red zone, two interceptions and a goal line stand. A Louisiana offense that puts up 40.5 PPG at home will not be easy to stop and the good fortune GSU’s defense had last week is not likely to repeat itself here. I know that the Ragin Cajuns have a good defense, but they are facing a team that has put up 482.7 YPG the last 3 weeks! The last two meetings have seen these teams combine for 58 and 65 total points. 10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo (7:30 ET): If it’s November, that means it’s time for some good ol’ “MAC-tion” and I’m anticipating a pretty high scoring game here between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Visiting EMU comes in with the better overall record (5-3 vs. 4-4 SU), however both are 2-2 SU in conference play and Toledo is a decided favorite at the Glass Bowl. Both teams are chasing Northern Illinois, who at 4-0 SU in conference play is the only undefeated team in the entire MAC. It may seem strange to expect a “high-scoring game” with Toledo involved. The Rockets have seen their last six games all stay Under the total. The O/U lines have been pretty consistent, ranging from 51 to 58.5. Three of the previous four games have seen between 49 and 52 total points scored, so there have been some close calls. In their last game, Toledo put up 34 points in a win over Western Michigan. That was their most points scored in a game excluding UMass or an FCS opponent (Norfolk State). The Over is 6-1 the L7 times hosting EMU and LY in Ypsilanti, the Rockets scored 45 points. The Toledo defense has been surprisingly stout for a .500 team. They are allowing just 18.3 PPG. But the Rockets’ stop unit will be tested by an Eastern Michigan offense that comes in averaging 32.8 PPG (2nd most in the MAC). The Eagles have gone over 30 points in five of their eight games this season. Last time out, they put up 55 in a win over Bowling Green. The key was a mid-season change at QB to Ben Bryant, who leads the conference in passer rating. Toledo also made a change under center a couple weeks ago and they’ve been better (on the offensive end) since then. The Over is due to hit for the home team. 10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 52 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Miami/Ohio (7:30 ET): The 97th edition of the “Battle of the Bricks” will have a decidedly different “feel” this season as it will mark the first time since 2004 that Frank Solich is not patrolling the sidelines for Ohio. The legendary coach made a surprise retirement this past offseason and that has led to a real downturn in Athens. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU (one win was against Akron) and headed for their worst season in two decades. However, there is one pretty incredible streak still alive at Ohio: It’s been six years since they lost a MAC game by more than seven points. This year’s three conference losses have been by a combined 11 points. Over the L5 seasons, the Bobcats have 10 MAC losses by 3 pts or less! Miami is in much better “form” coming into Tuesday’s rivalry game having won three of its last four. The one loss came by a single point, 13-12 at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are coming off a 24-17 upset win at Ball State that leaves them tied with Kent State atop the MAC East. That was their 1st road win of the season as 2021 got underway with a brutal three-game road trip through Cincinnati, Minnesota & Army. Four of Miami’s last five games have gone Under, the exception being a 34-21 win over Akron. Ohio’s last five games have all stayed Under, but I’m calling for a reversal of the trend here. This O/U line is definitely on the “low” end for both teams. The O/U line for Ohio’s last game was 68.5. The only game with a lower O/U line than this one came against Northwestern, who held them to six points. Miami’s defense is not going to do that. But at the same time, Ohio’s run defense is one of the worst in the entire country (220 YPG allowed) and they allow 31.1 PPG. 8* Over Miami/Ohio |
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10-30-21 | Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 61 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
9* Under Penn State/Ohio State (7:30 ET): Admittedly, I’m taking a risk betting on the #1 scoring offense in the country (49.3 PPG) being in a game that stays Under the total. But the team Ohio State is facing here could only manage 18 points in a game that went NINE overtimes last week! In conference play, Penn State is averaging only 19.5 points per game. So I don’t think we have to worry about them scoring many points Saturday night in Columbus. The deciding factor is that the Nittany Lions defense is quite good (14.7 PPG allowed) and can be the first to hold the Buckeyes in check here in 2021. The last two games have seen Penn State fail to break 300 total yards. This despite starting QB Sean Clifford (got injured against Iowa) returning to the lineup last week. The Nittany Lions seemingly can’t run the ball (100th in FBS in rush yards per game) and it’s not like they’re going to do much of that here anyway as they figure to be trailing throughout. Clifford could only complete 19 of 34 passes against Illinois for 165 yards. He was also sacked four times. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games. Now the Ohio State offense has topped 50 in each of those same four games. But this is the best defense they’ve faced all season. Penn State is #15 in the country against the pass, holding teams to just 178 YPG through the air. The Buckeyes aren’t going to score 50+ every week. Even if they hit 40 this week, which I concede is possible, that does not necessarily mean this game is going to go Over. The Buckeyes allowed just 128 total yards against Indiana last week. So I really can’t stress how little scoring PSU is likely to do in this game. While the O/U line is right in line with most Ohio State games this year, it’s a season high for Penn State. 9* Under Penn State/Ohio State |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Navy/Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has gone Over in five straight games, which immediately caught my eye. Here they are matched up with a Navy team that isn’t very strong offensively (at least compared to years past) but did just hold Cincinnati to 27 points last week. Based on the way Navy plays (lots of running), there figures to be a lower number of possessions than usual for a Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane also got last weekend off, giving them some added time to prepare for the triple option. When these teams met last year in Annapolis (Tulsa was ranked #22 at the time), the final score was just 19-6 (Tulsa won). Last year was a good one for the Golden Hurricane as they finished 6-3 SU with the losses coming to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Mississippi State (bowl). This year’s squad is not nearly as strong. However, the number of points allowed last week to USF (31) was highly misleading. The Bulls got TWO non-offensive touchdowns in the 2Q to build a brief 14-point lead. The Golden Hurricane actually ended up allowing only 268 total yards. Navy’s offense has been pretty pitiful to this point. They average just 280 YPG. The vaunted rushing attack is producing only 3.5 yards per carry. The Midshipmen did have a season-high 116 yards passing last week, but that’s because they fell behind by 17 points and had to throw. Again, I was impressed by the defense holding a top five opponent (that averages 41.1 PPG) to just 27 points and 271 total yards. I predict that this ends up being the lowest scoring game - for both teams - so far this season. 10* Under Navy/Tulsa |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue (3:00 ET): While Purdue obviously could have cared less, my loss with the Over in their game last week against Iowa was quite frustrating. Give credit where credit is due. The Boilermakers rolled into Iowa City and stomped the #2 ranked team in the country (yeah right!) 24-7 as a double digit underdog. But four turnovers by the Hawkeyes, all of them in Purdue territory, were the reason that game stayed Under. That and the fact there were two missed FGs (one by each side) after long drives and Purdue also fumbled at the goal line. The Boilermakers are now 6-0 Under this season, making them the ONLY team in the country yet to go Over in a single game. That changes this week. You can’t take away what Purdue did offensively last week against a very good Iowa defense. QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 375 yards and WR David Bell hauled in a career-high 240 yards. The Wisconsin defense that the Boilermakers will face this week is good, but not as good as Iowa’s, as evident by the fact the Badgers gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 38 to Michigan. The number of points allowed vs. ND is a bit misleading (non-offensive TDs) but there was nothing phony about the way Michigan put it on them. As I alluded to earlier, Purdue should have scored 30+ points last week against a very good Iowa defense. This is a really low O/U line, the lowest of the season for Purdue. It’s not the lowest of the season for Wisconsin as they played Army last week and the O/U line for that game was 37. The game did NOT go Over (Badgers won 20-14), although I should point out that it was close. Wisconsin’s defense is great against the run, but it has faced two terrible passing teams (Illinois, Army) in a row. They allowed 239+ yards passing in three of the first four games and as we saw last week, the passing game is the strength of this Purdue offense (334 YPG). This one gets Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue |
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10-16-21 | Purdue v. Iowa OVER 43 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech |
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10-16-21 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion UNDER 68 | Top | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion |
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10-09-21 | Akron v. Bowling Green OVER 45.5 | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Akron/Bowling Green (12:00 ET): Bowling Green is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country and now finds itself favored for just the third time in its last 43 games. Normally, I might view this as an opportune time to fade. But I also have zero interest in taking an Akron team that is just 2-21 SU in its last 23 games, even if one of those victories came against the Falcons last season. (The other was this year vs. FCS Bryant). During that same time, the Zips are 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS as underdogs! (They were 2-pt favorites LY vs. BGSU). I don’t think you can play either side here. So what is the play? Well, in addition to being perfect against the spread so far, BGSU has also gone Under in all five of its games. They are one of just two 5-0 Under teams, Purdue being the other. Seeing as how the Falcons average only 17.2 PPG (they are 2-3 straight up), you may think I’m going to predict the Under trend to continue. Guess again! With Akron already having given up 45+ points three different times, I think BGSU is going to have its highest scoring game of the season this week. Just to further illustrate how awful the Zips truly are, this is the first time since 2015 that BGSU is favored by two touchdowns. Talk about being due for Over; not only is BGSU one of just two teams in the country to be 5-0 Under right now, but the last five meetings with Akron (and 8 of the last 9) have stayed Under as well. The Zips’ win over BG last season is the only time in their last eight games that they did not give up at least 34 points. All we’re probably going to need from them here is 10 points. Every one of Akron’s games this year would have gone Over this total, which is incredibly low for a College Football game in 2021. 10* Over Akron/Bowling Green |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 62 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76 | Top | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee OVER 60.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time. Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns. Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota UNDER 63 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet. Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening. This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 76 | Top | 24-52 | Push | 0 | 201 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia UNDER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 71.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma |
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12-19-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one. Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 52 h 51 m | Show |
9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming |
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12-10-20 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech |
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12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 48 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup. About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points. Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn |
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11-28-20 | TCU v. Kansas UNDER 52 | Top | 59-23 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas |
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11-21-20 | Mississippi State v. Georgia OVER 44 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year. That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia |
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11-21-20 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54.5 | Top | 14-47 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!). That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt |
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11-21-20 | Georgia State v. South Alabama OVER 57.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more. In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved. South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season! 8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made. Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense. That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 50.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue |
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11-14-20 | UTEP v. UTSA OVER 45 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA |
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11-13-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Florida International OVER 39 | Top | 38-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date. FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0. This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 63.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -109 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs. This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma |
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10-31-20 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year. Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 96 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest). Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season. Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State |
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10-31-20 | Temple v. Tulane UNDER 60.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here. The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season. The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane |
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 66 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week. This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual. 10* Under Alabama/Tennessee |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State |
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10-17-20 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 76 | Top | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play. This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas |
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10-17-20 | Navy v. East Carolina UNDER 57 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 60.5 | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover). UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia |
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10-03-20 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe OVER 49 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU UNDER 60 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo. Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one. Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville UNDER 65 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks. There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville |
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09-05-20 | SMU v. Texas State UNDER 69.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring. The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG. SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss OVER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl. South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 56 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss (11:30 AM ET): The Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX will be the home for our top College Football bowl total. Both Tulane and Southern Miss are led by the respective offenses, each of which can claim to have a QB that accounted for at least 3,000 total yards. In the case of Tulane's Justin McMillan, he ran for 704 yards in addition to throwing for 2,229. Nearly half (12) of his 26 total TD's came on the ground. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham got there in more of a "traditional sense" with 3,329 yards passing, though five of his 23 total TDs were rushing. Take the Over here. Tulane didn't exactly play well down the stretch as they come in having lost five of six, including three straight. This is the exact opposite of last year when they started 2-5 SU before closing on a 5-1 run that included a 41-24 bowl win (Cure) over Louisiana. Still they did go 6-1 SU/ATS as chalk in 2019 and they are favored in this game. That's pretty significant as the Green Wave averaged 41.1 PPG this year when favored. But it's also easy to see why they faltered down the stretch and that's a leaky defense that gave up an average of 35.7 points those L6 games. The Southern Miss offense didn't do much of anything in the last two regular season games and that's what cost them a shot at playing for the C-USA Championship. In fact, the Golden Eagles' last five games have all stayed Under. But this is a bowl game and I expect a more wide open offensive display. You have two offenses averaging over 400 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. These are old rivals both happy to be in a bowl game. Southern Miss scored 30 or more seven times while Tulane crossed that threshold eight times. Be prepared for a shootout. 10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati OVER 54.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati (3:00 ET): B.C. is clearly not at "full strength" entering the Birmingham Bowl. Despite leading his (now former) team to an upset win over Pitt in the regular season finale (that got them bowl eligible), Steve Addazio was let go as the HC after seven seasons where the Eagles never finished w/ more than seven victories. RB A.J. Dillon, the team's best player, won't be suiting up here either as he's getting ready for the NFL Draft. So it's no wonder B.C. is a decided underdog here. But if we've learned anything about the Eagles it's that they are a dangerous underdog. They've covered 13 of the last 19 times getting points including a 9-0 ATS record priced between +3.5 and +10. Five of those nine covers came this season. Furthermore, Cincinnati comes into this game with a possible lack of motivation after suffering B2B losses to Memphis. The second was in the American Conference Championship Game and that cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, Luke Fickell has done a good job here in guiding the program to B2B 10+ win seasons and the Bearcats are definitely a better team than B.C. But will they show up? One thing I'm counting on is Cincy scoring plenty of points in this one as the Boston College defense was not up to par in 2019, giving up 31.7 points and 480.3 yards per game. The Eagles are among the worst teams in the country at defending the pass. Despite Dillon sitting out and an interim head coach (Rich Gunnell), I expect Boston College's offense to perform better than expected. Dillon's backup David Bailey ran for 811 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. This is an offense that averaged more than 30 PPG. But the B.C. defense remains a major liability. Cincinnati comes in on a five-game Under streak, but I expect that to change here in a game where both teams could go for 30+ pts. Another key factor is that the Bearcats' defense allowed only 13.3 PPG at home, but 28.9 PPG on the road. 10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming (4:30 ET): Admittedly, Wyoming very much has the statistical profile of an Under team. They have a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and just 2.9 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the offense comes into the Arizona Bowl averaging just 24.3 PPG and 18.3 outside of Laramie. Since QB Sean Chambers (dual threat) went down with a season-ending knee injury, it's no wonder that every Cowboys game has finished Under the total. Overall, they are on a six-game Under streak coming into this game. However, it's a much different story with the Georgia State defense, which allows a 65% completion percentage and 5.3 yards per carry. They give up 36.1 points and 451 yards per game and those numbers get even worse away from home. Thankfully though, the Panthers can score. They average 32.4 points and 446.9 yards per game. So this will be a real "clash of styles" on New Year's Eve afternoon. The Wyoming offense may not have the most impressive resume, but they come into the Arizona Bowl as a bit of a "wild card" due to the fact seldom used freshman Levi Williams will get the start at QB. Look for the Pokes to heavily lean on RB Xazavian Valladay, who had a 1,000 yd regular season. Given that Georgia State's defense allows such a high number of YPC, look for Wyoming to move the ball more than they usually do. There were seven different games this season where Georgia State opponents had 200+ rushing yards. Those six opponents averaged a whopping 42.2 PPG, all but one scoring at least 37. The Georgia State offense will do enough to help get this one get Over. 10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 55.5 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Virginia/Florida (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl is expected to be pretty lopsided with Florida now a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. Virginia did win its division (ACC Coastal) and will always hold a special place in our hearts as they were our 10* Game of the Year against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. They got it done, winning 39-30 as a 1.5-point underdog. That win also snapped a 15-year losing skid to the Hokies. Unfortunately, the Hoos then got their doors blown off in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, losing 62-17. So its easy to see why they are such big dogs for this game. Florida surprised me some by delivering a second straight 10-win season for HC Dan Mullen. The Gators' only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They won their last three games by a total of 96 points. The QB situation is something to monitor here. While Kyle Trask completed over 67% of his attempts for 2,636 yards, there have been rumblings about Mullen wanting to "open things up" with Emory Jones. Virginia's offense averaged 32.4 PPG (2nd most in school history) behind QB Bryce Perkins. I know their last five games all went Over, but look for the Cavaliers to struggle to move the ball here, much like they did vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship. Florida's defense allows just 14.4 PPG, has pitched three shutouts this year and has held five different opponents without a touchdown. Virginia doesn't really run the ball effectively, so if they become one-dimensional vs. Florida, they are in big trouble. Both teams scored a lot less away from home (Virginia just 22.5 PPG, Florida 26.5), so look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Virginia/Florida |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa UNDER 52 | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 44 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State (2:00 ET): The New Mexico Bowl pits Central Michigan of the MAC against San Diego State of the Mountain West. Both teams saw their respective regular seasons end in disappointment. Central Michigan lost outright (to Miami) as a favorite in the MAC Championship Game while San Diego State lost a de facto division title game to Hawaii, which would have given it the right to play for its own conference title. The Aztecs did bounce back to defeat BYU 13-3 in the regular season finale, so unlike CMU they are off a win. San Diego State was the #1 under team during the regular season with an O/U mark of 1-11. Their last six games have all stayed Under and have been incredibly low-scoring by modern college football standards. This is a team that averages just 19.0 PPG, which falls in the bottom 12 of all of FBS and is the lowest average among bowl teams. To help counteract that, the Aztecs defense allows only 12.8 PPG, which ranks 4th in the FBS. The only teams to allow fewer are: Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the big key here for the Aztecs is that QB Ryan Agnew will be back in the lineup after he missed the BYU game. While San Diego State certainly has the profile to match its O/U results, this is a bowl game and often times that means you don't get the same kind of defensive intensity. It's also an early start time for SDSU, so don't be surprised if the defense is a bit "sleepy" to start. Central Michigan averages 31.9 PPG and had scored 38+ in six of seven before losing the MAC Champ Game. At the same time, the Chippewas defense isn't good outside of Mt Pleasant as they allow 34.6 PPG on the road. SDSU HC Rocky Long knows CMU HC Jim McElwain well from the time the former spent at Colorado State. McElwain has done a great job in his first year here (CMU was 1-11 LY) and you can look for it to end w/ an Over. 10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo v. Charlotte UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-30-19 | BYU v. San Diego State OVER 40.5 | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/San Diego State (9:00 ET): A tough spot for SDSU here. The Aztecs lost out in Hawaii last week, a game that decided the MWC West Division. The disappointment of knowing they won't be able to play for a conference championship will likely linger into this regular season finale vs. BYU. Brigham Young is an independent, thus they have no such distractions. They've won five straight, two of them against Mt West teams including the likely conference champ Boise State. They've already booked a trip to the 2019 Hawaii Bowl. I don't this game will have the same defensive intensity as it would have were it played a few weeks ago. Take the Over. Every San Diego State game but one has gone Under this year (10-1 Under). But coming off the close loss to Hawaii last week, I don't see the Aztecs' defense playing up to its usual standard. It was an 'ugly' 14-11 setback out on the island w/ a missed FG in the final minute being the difference. I realize the Aztecs' offense has struggled mightily throughout this 2019 season and will be w/o QB Ryan Agnew here. But if they can get close to 20 points (they average 19.5 PPG), then this should be an easy Over w/ the number being so low. BYU is banged up in the backfield as well, but still scored 56 points last week. I know that was against a terrible UMass defense, but the Cougars have averaged almost 40 PPG during their current win streak. I know they aren't likely to approach that number this week, but even half that would likely lead to an Over. BYU has dominated San Diego State through the years, winning six straight and 9 of 10 going back to 2002. It's important to note this will be the lowest O/U for the Cougars this season. The only lower O/U for SDSU was the one time they went Over (vs. Wyoming). This game finds a way to get Over. 8* Over BYU/San Diego St |
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11-30-19 | Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 43 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 41 m | Show |
***THIS PLAY IS ACTUALLY ON THE OVER 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force (2:00 ET): I've had lots of success betting Air Force games this season, starting w/ the Flyboys' 31-7 thrashing of Utah State in a late night home game back on October 26th. Since then, I've managed to both successfully fade them (laying 17 to Army) and cash them (at Colorado State, thanks to a late pick-six). The Falcons come into the regular season finale at 9-2 (2nd best record among Mt West teams) after clobbering New Mexico 44-22 last week, a game I did not play. Considering how much they've been scoring of late, I think Over is a more than reasonable play here, especially w/ such a low number. The reason for the total being so low here is Wyoming. The Cowboys have gone Under in five straight games and they've all been low-scoring affairs. QB Sean Chambers being lost for the season has played a big hand in the offense not doing much, but the Pokes do have a pretty good defense as well. Not since Missouri in the season opener has a Wyoming opponent scored more than 26 points. But I wouldn't be too convinced that the Cowboys are looking forward to facing the vaunted AFA triple option offense in this regular season finale. Other than vs. their fellow service academies (Army, Navy) and Boise State, Air Force has scored at least 30 points in every game this season. The Falcons will certainly be motivated coming into this game. Not only can they make it a 10-win season, but they also are looking to snap a three-year losing skid to Wyoming. Two of those losses have come as favorites and they've given up at least 28 points in every game. But Wyoming has been a strong underdog this year, beating Missouri outright as a 16.5-pt dog and then only losing by a combined 15 pts the other four times they've gotten points. I get how Wyoming games have trended lately, but this O/U line is set to be the lowest for both teams this year. Even against a stout run defense, Air Force will get its ground game going. 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force |
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11-29-19 | Toledo v. Central Michigan UNDER 65 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan (12:00 ET): The complexion of this game was altered dramatically by Western Michigan losing Tuesday. Now the door is wide open for Central Michigan to win the MAC West. All the Chippewas must do is win this game, which they are expected to comfortably (now a double-digit favorite). But don't expect Toledo to roll over. The Rockets are bowl eligible, but a loss here would leave them at 6-6. With more MAC teams bowl eligible than there are available bowl slots, some of the 6-win teams are inevitably going to be left out. Toledo doesn't want to see it's 9-year bowl streak come to an end. If you've been following either of these teams, then you know both have been going Over the total with great regularity. Toledo is 5-0 Over its last five games while CMU is 6-0 Over its last six. But if you've been following my O/U plays during this great streak that I'm on, then you already know that fading such streaks has been "the name of the game." This is a higher O/U line than either team is used to seeing. Four of the five straight Toledo games that have gone Over have seen O/U lines of 58.5 pts or lower. Their games average 59.7 PPG for the season. Central Michigan has seen totals in the high 40's during their Over streak and this will be the highest O/U line for any of their games this year. CMU games average 60.0 PPG on the nose. Putting aside the total for a moment, the streak CMU is more concerned about ending is nine straight losses to Toledo. While four of those losses have occurred in Mt. Pleasant, getting this game at home is huge for the Chippewas as they are allowing only 19.8 PPG here (5-0 SU). Toledo's scoring average drops to 23.2 PPG on the road. CMU has not scored more than 17 pts on the Rockets' defense since 2015. While this is a better team going against an inferior Toledo product, expect the offense to not totally have its way. This is potentially a "nervous moment" for the Chippewas. 10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): For Western Michigan, the mission is simple here. Win and you are the MAC West Division Champs. Lose and you open the door for Central Michigan, who plays Friday (at home vs. Toledo). The Broncos come into this game at 7-4 SU and winners of three straight. They've averaged an impressive 40.3 PPG during the win streak, however, it should be pointed out that before the L2 both went Over, WMU's previous five contests were all Unders. That's the way I'm thinking here as we're "due" for a low-scoring game Tuesday night in DeKalb. At 4-7 SU, Northern Illinois has been reduced to the role of spoiler in this regular season finale. This is one of the weaker Huskies teams in years and it'll be just the second time in the last decade that they're NOT going bowling. A big problem has been the offense, which has been held to just 23.4 PPG this year. They scored only 17 in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week. On the bright side, the defense often "shows up" here at home (not last week) where it is allowing only 20.5 PPG. Last week saw NIU give up 24 pts in the 3Q w/ 10 of those coming off two turnovers that led to short fields. Western Michigan had to go to OT last week to pick up its first road win of the season. The Broncos beat Ohio 37-34, a game which was 10-0 in their favor at halftime. The previous week saw another high scoring 2nd half, primarily the 4Q, against Ball State. They very easily could be coming into this game on a 7-game Under streak. NIU has gone Over in six straight, a streak I can't see continuing as their defense only allows 270 YPG at home for the season. Western Michigan's offense declines greatly on the road, down to 27.6 PPG. 10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois |
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11-23-19 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 60 | Top | 49-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Memphis/South Florida (4:00 ET): #18 Memphis has certainly been unkind to Under bettors this year, delivering seven consecutive Overs. But it should be pointed out that last week's needed a blocked punt return for a TD (by Houston) in the final minutes. The blocked punt came in the least urgent of situations too; with Memphis leading 45-20. The Tigers' defense actually turned in a solid effort, allowing just 256 total yards. When Houston got the ball on the Memphis' side of the field following a turnover, they were held to just a field goal after a 6-play, 8-yard drive. South Florida "should have" beaten Cincinnati last week. It was a game they outgained the opponent 438-278, had a 10-0 lead at halftime and never trailed until the final play. That final play was 37-yard FG w/ no time remaining. The Bulls' defense should at least hold its head high though. Cincinnati had scored 46 and 48 points the previous two weeks. USF has been pretty good at stopping the opponent all season, really. They've held five of the last six opponents to 23 points or less. While only one team (Temple) has been able to hold Memphis below 35 pts since the season opener, the Bulls just might be capable of doing so here at home. The problem for USF though is going to be an offense that really isn't capable of scoring a ton. Three of the last four games, the Bulls have been held to 17 points or fewer. The one exception was the hideous East Carolina defense. Against top 50 teams, the Bulls' offense is averaging less than 10 points per game this year! That is very bad! Though Memphis must win here to keep it's New Year's Six Bowl Game hopes alive, it's really all about next week's showdown vs. Cincinnati and then a potential rematch in the AAC Title Game. The defense will do its job, but so will USF's, which has allowed just three touchdowns in the past two games. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M v. Georgia OVER 44 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an awfully low total for a game where both offenses are averaging more than 32.0 PPG. Of course, you have to factor in the great Georgia defense (10.5 PPG allowed) which has led to five straight Unders for them. But A&M will bring arguably the best offense they've seen in Athens all season, or at least since the Notre Dame game. The Aggies have won four straight and averaged 37.0 PPG while doing so. They just gained 540 total yards on a South Carolina defense that had held UGA to only 17 points. Take the Over in this one. Texas A&M has three losses, but they were to Alabama (47-28), Clemson (24-10) and Auburn (28-20). That has them, arguably, as the best 3-loss team in the country. QB Mond is completing 64% of his pass attempts this season for nearly 2,500 yards. Said Georgia HC Kirby Smart, "Their receiving corps will be one of the best we've played against." This is a low total for an A&M game. This season has seen their games average 54.3 PPG. This'll be the lowest number for any game to date and they've gone Over 2 of the 3 that were below 55 points, which makes sense. Believe it or not, but this will be the first time these schools have met as SEC rivals. While Georgia does average 32.4 PPG, they've been below that number in five straight games. In fact, they've failed to top 27 during that time. But this could be a breakout day as they honor the seniors in the final home game at Samford Stadium. A&M has allowed only 20 points the L2 weeks, but has also given up some high point totals this year, not just to the big boys either. They allowed 27 against Arkansas and 30 to Mississippi State. The Over is 6-1 the Aggies' L7 games vs. teams that have winning records. 8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia |
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11-23-19 | Boston College v. Notre Dame UNDER 64 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): This seems like an exceptionally high total for a game involving these two teams. Part of that is the fact B.C. has gone Over in five straight games. But still, seven of the last eight times these "Holy War" rivals have met, the game has gone Under. The exception was the last one, played two years ago, when Notre Dame won 49-20 in Chesnut Hill. Recent BC games have seen some outrageous scoring and the Fighting Irish did just hang 52 on Navy last week. But BC only managed 7 pts in its only game vs. a ranked foe this season (Clemson) and Notre Dame's defense has been pretty good, save for the Michigan disaster. Take the Under. Ever since QB Anthony Brown went down with an injury, Boston College's offense has become totally one-dimensional. Lucky for them, that one-dimension involves running the ball w/ A.J. Dillon. Two weeks ago against Syracuse, the Eagles gained a school-record 691 yds of total offense. But almost 500 of those came on the ground! Maybe they feel good about themselves going into this game as ND just allowed 281 yds rushing against Navy. But Navy's triple option is a "special animal" and the Irish actually allowed only 4.4 yards per carry. Facing such a run-heavy offense the week prior to B.C. should actually be to the defense's benefit. Coming off a bye week, Boston College's defense should be well prepared for QB Ian Book and the rest of the Notre Dame offense. That's going to be key for them because the Eagles don't figure to do much scoring in this game. The Fighting Irish have allowed more than 23 points in only one game this season and it was the disaster in Ann Arbor. They are 6-0 SU in South Bend, allowing an average of just 16.8 PPG. Given that B.C. is likely to be down big in this game, they'll have to abandon the run early (like they did vs. Clemson when the ran for just 97 yds) and passing just isn't their strong suit. 8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | Top | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
analysis soon 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo (7:30 ET): This is a pretty fair O/U line, in my opinion. Both teams have each gone Over in three straight (Toledo four straight). A year ago at this time, Buffalo was prepping to play in the MAC Title Game and was on its way to the first 10-win season in program history. Regression was all but assured this year, but tip your cap to the job done by Lance Leipold as the Bulls should be back in a bowl (need to win just 1 of their final 2 games). Last week's 30-27 OT loss at Kent State was a step in the wrong direction, however. UB (-6.5) blew a 27-6 lead, giving up 24 pts in the final eight minutes. I'm proud to state we had the underdog in that one. But we were a little lucky. Toledo has been a disappointment this year. The preseason to win the MAC West, the Rockets are just 3-3 in conference play and have been outscored by 42 pts. They are already bowl eligible, however, that probably doesn't erase the sting of LW's 31-28 home loss to Northern Illinois. That game, which was the Rockets' home finale, saw them come back from a 21-point deficit in the 4Q to tie things up at 28-28. But it was not to be as they lost on a last second FG. Despite snow, the game featured over 900 yards of total offense. Don't think we'll be seeing that again here. Buffalo's loss LW dropped them to 7-4 SU in weekday games under Leipold. Technically, Toledo is still alive to win the MAC West while Buffalo can't win the East (Miami has clinched). A case can be made that both teams' games last week could easily have stayed Under. The Buffalo defense played very well through three quarters against Kent State and it wasn't really their fault they lost the game. Two of Buffalo's 4Q TD's came after an onside kick and a blocked punt. The Bulls defense allowed less than 300 total yds in the game, which is par for the course as they are allowing just 273.5 YPG in conference play. Toledo's offense had only 7 points entering the 4Q last week and they've scored just 21 pts total their L2 road games. 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET): You know how this goes. Northern Illinois has gone Over in each of its last five games, so we're going to go the other way. After seeing totals mostly in the 40's, last Wednesday the Huskies did go Over 55.5 in a 31-28 win over Toledo. But, of note, is the fact they held the Rockets to just 7 points in the first three quarters. By winning that game, NIU kept alive its chances of becoming bowl eligible (currently 4-6 SU) and now they must win their final two games, both of which are at home where they are allowing just 12.3 PPG on the year. This is the second straight Tuesday game for Eastern Michigan. One week ago, the Eagles scored a season-high 42 points in a victory, but that came at the expense of winless Akron. It'll be a much tougher defense that EMU is facing this week. The Eagles are on a 3-game Over streak of their own heading into this contest, but like Northern Illinois, the O/U lines have generally been lower. Tonight's visitors are 3-1-1 to the Under this season with a total of 54.5 pts or higher. Last week was just the third time all season that NIU has scored more than 24 points. A lot has been written this year about this not being the same caliber of Northern Illinois football that we are used to seeing. That's true, but it's also fair to point out that Huskies have gotten to play only three games in DeKalb! Getting these last two at home is huge for their bowl prospects. I mentioned earlier that the Huskies are allowing only 12.3 PPG here and while a lot of that has to do w/ the fact two of the games were against Akron (shutout) and a FCS school (Illinois State), they did hold Ball State to just 269 total yards in a 27-20 loss back on Oct 5. Eastern Michigan also needs a win to become bowl eligible, so they won't be run over here. Incredibly, the last three head to head meetings have all gone to OT. Yet none of the three games have seen more than 57 total pts scored and last year's 26-23 NIU win went to THREE overtimes! 10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois |
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11-16-19 | Memphis v. Houston UNDER 69.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 47 m | Show |
8* Under Memphis/Houston (3:30 ET): If Memphis wins out, then they are going to be the Group of Five team that goes to the Cotton Bowl. I talked about that possibility when I took them all the way back in Week 1 vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers won that game against Rebels 15-10. But since then, they've scored 35 or more in every win (held to 28 in loss to Temple) w/ the last six games all going Over. We havent seen the Tigers since that epic 54-48 win over SMU two weeks ago. Off a bye, I'm looking for a little less scoring. Take the Under. Houston's last two games have both gone Under by the tightest of margins. It was a 34-31 loss to SMU w/ a total of 66. Then it was a 44-29 loss at UCF where the total was 73.5. Still that proves they can go Under a high total when matched up against one of these elite AAC offenses. Remember that it's been a tumultuous 1st year for HC Dana Holgorsen. His star QB and WR both decided to redshirt midseason. It's a testament to his system that the offense has been able to score as much as they have. But, for the record, the Cougars have averaged just under 27 PPG the L4 weeks. Both teams are off a bye, so the offenses could come out a little rusty. Memphis will obviously find a way to score its fair share of points, but I'm also looking for them to play better defensively than they have in the last two games. In five of their first seven games, the Tigers allowed 24 points or less. My sense is they'll get back closer to that number here. Under Mike Norvell, the Memphis' offense has had its way with the Houston defense. But in their last home game, the Cougars did slow down an SMU offense that was averaging over 45 PPG. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times these teams have played in Houston. 8* Under Memphis/Houston |
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11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): While - on paper - this looks like a REAL ugly matchup out of the SEC, remember games are not played on paper. I anticipate it being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Last week, I took the Over w/ Vanderbilt. Even though they didn't score a single point, I still cashed a winning ticket! They gave up 56 points to Florida in a loss that guaranteed the Commodores won't be going bowling in Derrick Mason's 6th year here in Nashville. I have to wonder about the psyche of a defense following a loss like that. Take the Over again. Kentucky's offense has hardly been pretty this year. The Wildcats managed just 13 points last week as they lost outright as 3-pt home favorites to Tennessee (17-13). It was the sixth straight UK game to go Under the total. When they're on the road, the offensive numbers get quite dreadful as the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three games outside of Lexington this year. Ouch! But before losing to Tennessee, the Wildcats had put up 29 points (in an upset of Missouri) and I believe this offense is capable of much more w/ Lynn Bowden at the helm. They've run for 600 yards the L2 games despite a non-existent passing attack. UK will move the ball effectively this week. This game reminds me a lot of the Over play I had on South Alabama-Texas State last week. That too was a matchup of two putrid offensive teams (even worse than these two) that had nothing to play for. The game ended up being a 30-28 final and went Over midway in the third quarter. Kentucky did score 13 points in the 1st quarter last week before being shutout the rest of the way. But despite getting shutout in those final three quarters, the Wildcats had FIVE drives of at least 35 yds. Zero points on drives totaling 175+ yards is almost unheard-of inefficiency This Vandy offense did score 38 earlier this season on LSU, so there's hope for them too. We don't need many points here in what will be the lowest O/U line for either team this season . 8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt |
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11-16-19 | Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 58 | Top | 45-44 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State (3:30 ET): Central Michigan is not only coming off a bye week, but also five straight Overs. Key to that run though is that three of the five games took place in Mt. Pleasant where they average an impressive 43.0 PPG. In those three recent home games, the Chippewas scored 42 or more points. But this week will be a road game (in Muncie, IN) and on the road the Chips are averaging just 17.0 PPG, a massive decline. I like this game to go Under. Ball State was looking like it was having a breakthough season. Going into the final weekend of October, they were the only team MAC team w/o a conference loss. But now they've lost two in a row, 34-21 at home to Ohio and 35-31 at Western Michigan. That last game was played on a Tuesday and I cashed the Over. Interesting that they were facing a team that had gone Under in five straight. Now it's a team that's gone Over in five straight games. The Cardinals do average plenty of points here in Muncie, but I'm looking for some defensive improvement from them this week as well. This is the highest O/U line for any Central Michigan game since the last one that went Under (9.28 vs. Western Michigan). Something I'd like to point out w/ the Chippewas is that their defense has actually performed better than you think the L3 weeks. They've allowed just 323.7 YPG. These teams play every year and Ball State hasn't scored more than 24 points in any of the L4 meetings. The score was only 21-17 going into the 4Q last Tuesday vs. Western Michigan and only 28-24 w/ just over five minutes remaining. With the massive offensive decline CMU experiences on the road, Under is the right call here. 8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 43 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State (9:30 ET): This would certainly seem to be an exceedingly low total for a Fresno State team that has gone Over in five straight. Enter San Diego State, a team who is not only 8-1 Under on the year, but also allows just 14.4 PPG. At the same time, a Fresno State defense that has struggled mightily of late looks to be getting a respite by facing an opponent that doesn't score much either. My recent success betting CFB totals has a lot to do w/ bucking these streaks like the one FSU is currently on. So I say Under Friday night! This year's Fresno State team simply isn't as good as the past two editions. Of course, in 2017, HC Jeff Tedford engineered the greatest single-season turnaround in CFB history. The Bulldogs went from 1-11 SU to 10-4. Shockingly, there was no regression in 2018 as they jumped to 12-2. But this year, the Bulldogs may not even make a bowl game. They are 4-5 after losing outright last week to Utah State, 37-35 as five-point home favorites. Some of that regression can be tied to a struggling defense. But SDSU is 11th in Mt West in scoring as well as last in YPG (326.6). This will be the weakest offense FSU has seen maybe all season. San Diego State also happens to be off an outright loss last Saturday, theirs an even larger embarrassment as they were 17-point favorites against Nevada, yet fell 17-13. The loss dropped them out of the Top 25, a place they didn't belong anyways. Defense was not an issue vs. Nevada as the Aztecs allowed just 226 total yards. While the number of yards allowed ranked among the season's best performances, it was also pretty par for the course as the Aztecs are allowing just 277.1 YPG, which is top eight in the entire country! Six straight meetings between these teams have stayed Under, the last five all seeing no more than 37 total pts scored. 10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State |
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11-09-19 | Iowa v. Wisconsin OVER 38 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin (4:00 ET): Another game w/ a really low total. Iowa has not fared well as an underdog, going just 4-11 ATS the L15 times. As a ROAD underdog, things get even more bleak as they are 0-7 SU/ATS the L7 times in that role. The Hawkeyes have not beaten a ranked opponent all season and have lost six of seven to Wisconsin, including 28-17 LY in Iowa City. Giving the Hawkeyes some hope here is the fact the Badgers have lost two straight games, one of them to Illinois. But both losses were on the road. I know both defenses are outstanding, but this Wisconsin offense is much better in Madison. Look for this one to sneak Over the total. Both teams are off byes. Last we saw Wisconsin, they were getting blown out by Ohio State (lost 38-7). The Badgers entered that game absolutely shell-shocked after losing at Illinois the week prior, as a 29-point favorite. They'd been humming right along prior to that, scoring 35 or more points five times in a 6-0 start. I know the defense has pitched four shutouts this year, but those came against some pretty overmatched offenses. Five consecutive Unders have this O/U line as the lowest all season for the Badgers. Every Wisconsin game this season has seen at least 38 total pts scored. They average 41.2 PPG themselves at Camp Randall. While Wisconsin's defense is #1 in the country in yards allowed, Iowa's is even stingier in the points allowed department. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 10.1 PPG, the lowest average in Kirk Ferentz's 21 years in Iowa City. They've allowed just 9 TDs all year, which is tied for 2nd fewest. But the oddsmakers were well aware of all this when they set this total. Iowa has gone Under four straight times, but only the last game (20-0 shutout of a terrible Northwestern team) had a lower O/U line. If both teams can score at least 17 points here, which really isn't asking much, then we're virtually assured of an Over. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has 19 TD's himself this season while Iowa QB Nate Stanley has the most passing yards in the Big 10. 8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin |
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11-09-19 | North Texas v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 72.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under North Texas/La Tech (4:00 ET): With two explosive offenses, this number has been bet way up during the week. But I like the Under, in large part due to the recent results both teams have had. There's been a lot of feasting on bad teams from both North Texas and Louisiana Tech this season, so don't look for either offense to put up the kind of numbers you're used to seeing here. North Texas has gone Over in five straight while La Tech has gone Over in three straight. The results of those streaks is the highest O/U line either has seen all year. Take the Under. North Texas scored 52 pts last week as QB Mason Fine threw for a career-high 7 TD passes. But that was against UTEP. The Mean Green offense has largely been disappointing in 2019. Some of that is due to injuries. But they are averaging just 27.2 PPG on the road as well. Take away UTEP, UTSA and Abilene Christian (FCS) and UNT has scored more than 33 in only one game. While I won't go so far as to say the Louisiana Tech defense is "good," they are allowing just 24.0 PPG this year. This will be just the second time all season that a total for a North Texas game is above 60 points. Louisiana Tech is off a bye. The Bulldogs are the only team w/o loss in Conference USA play as they are 4-0 and lead the West Division. Similar to North Texas, there's been only one La Tech game w/ an O/U line higher than 60 pts. The offensive numbers out of Ruston are impressive, but the Bulldogs have played an incredibly weak schedule so far. The road team is 2-0 the L2 years in this C-USA rivalry w/ the games decided by a total of three points. Neither game saw more 56 total points scored. I expect another competitive game here w/ some surprising defense being played. 8* Under North Texas/La Tech |
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11-09-19 | South Alabama v. Texas State OVER 41.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
8* Over South Alabama/Texas State (3:00 ET): It's been awhile since a game involving South Alabama went Over the total. In fact, it's happened just once all year and that was on September 7th vs. a FCS opponent (Jackson State). The Jaguars scored 37 points that day in an easy win. They have not won since and have scored just 59 points in six games! But those of you who follow my O/U plays know that this is the time where I love to "go contrarian." That's going to be a theme for this 3-pack of totals, by the way. In a game w/ a very low number, take the Over. Speaking of things that haven't happened in a while, how about Texas State covering a game? The Bobcats are 0-5-2 ATS in lined games this year. They are 2-6 SU overall and have been held to 17 pts or less in all six losses. One of their wins was against a FCS school, Nicholls State (won 24-3). The only other win was a high-scoring affair vs. Georgia State, which ended up as a 37-34 final thanks to triple overtime. Considering the dearth of scoring from both sides, I can't say I'm surprised that the number is so low. But this will be the lowest O/U line for any game this season for either team and by a pretty wide margin. The previous low total for Texas St is 48 points. All other games had a total of 55 pts or higher. For South Alabama, most of their totals have been 50 pts or higher as well. It's telling that Texas State's two highest scoring efforts of the year came when they were favored. They are about a TD favorite this week and the home team has captured all four meetings between these schools. All four of those games saw at least 44 total pts scored. Last year was a 41-31 USA win in Mobile. I know Texas State has injuries at QB/RB, but the backup QB (Tyler Vitt) at least now has a start under his belt. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in the country, there is the potential for a shootout. Neither defense can stop the run as they give up 222 and 226 yards per game respectively. 8* Over South Alabama/Texas State |
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11-09-19 | Vanderbilt v. Florida OVER 48.5 | Top | 0-56 | Win | 100 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida (12:00 ET): This SEC East rivalry is about as one-sided as it gets. Vandy thought they had the Gators "dead to rights" last year, up 21-3 in the 2nd quarter. But UF would go onto score the next 24 pts en route to a 37-27 win, their 27th in the last 28 meetings. Last year, the Gators were off a big win over LSU. This year, they come in off a loss to Georgia. Despite having two losses already (other to LSU), the Gators were still ranked #10 in the first CFP rankings. They clearly have a decided edge this week over the struggling Commodores. But I'm not about to lay this big number. I will however take the Over. Things have not been pretty w/ this Vanderbilt offense, nor have the results at the betting window. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS, the lone cover coming in an upset of Missouri a few weeks back. Last week saw them get beat 24-7 by South Carolina, the fifth straight game for the Commies to stay Under. But there's a big change this week and it's at QB. Riley Neal was knocked out of last week's game w/ a concussion. So Deuce Wallace, who has appeared in six games in a relief role, will make his first career start this week. While it seems like a tough spot, the Florida defense has held only FBS opponent below 20 points. Wallace's ability as a runner will add a different dimension to the Vandy offense by HC Mason's own admission. He also gets senior WR Kalija Lipscomb (missed LW vs. South Carolina) back from injury. The Florida defense is w/o two starting linebackers. On the other side, Florida could not run the ball at all against Georgia last week. The result was their lowest scoring effort of the year. But the Gators shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball on a Vandy defense that is giving up almost 500 YPG on the road, not to mention also 32.4 PPG. Florida averages over 35 PPG here in "The Swamp." With the 5-game Under streak, this is the lowest O/U line for any Vandy game this year. Time for an Over. 10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida |
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11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan OVER 63 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan (8:00 ET): This is probably a good time to reiterate something I've written previously. The MAC is having a down year. Being that it's November, we're about to get a ton of "weekday MACtion," so for those of you reading me for the first time, it helps to understand my current view of the Conference. Two teams looking to stake their claim as the best in the Western Division meet Tuesday night in Kalamazoo as Western Michigan hosts Ball State. Both teams have been going Under a lot recently (WMU 5 straight times), but they are each capable of putting plenty of points on the board too. Using a strategy that's worked well the last couple weeks, I'm going Over on this particular College Football matchup. The strategy I've been using w/ CFB totals is fairly straightforward. If a team has gone Over or Under a number of times in a row, go the other way. I realize there's a certain "fallacy" in that mentality, but I like to stick w/ what works. In this case, Western Michigan has gone Under five straight times. To say the Broncos play much better defense here at home would be a mild understatement. They go from giving up 42.0 PPG on the road to just 12.8 at home! But for our purposes, that's "offset" by the fact their scoring rises at home to 44.6 PPG from 25.3 on the road. WMU is simply a much better football team at home. They are 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) at Waldo Stadium and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road! So the Over is really on Ball State to score more than previous visitors to Kalamazoo. I think they are capable. After all, the Cardinals are averaging 33.0 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense could be in trouble. BSU was gashed for over 300 yds rushing two weeks ago by Ohio. Western Michigan ran for almost 400 yards in a 49-10 win over Bowling Green that same day. A big key for the Western Michigan offense in this stretch run is that John Wassink is healthy. The senior QB has missed all of November the L2 years due to injuries. Something to keep in mind w/ the WMU defensive numbers at home is that they haven't exactly faced a strong slate of opponents. Ball State is as good as any team that's visited here in 2019 and should be able to hang. 8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan |
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11-02-19 | BYU v. Utah State OVER 50 | Top | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/Utah State (10:00 ET): These two teams have each been featured in our previous two LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selections. Two weeks ago, BYU hosted Boise State. I took the Cougars plus the points (+7) and they won outright, handing Boise its first loss of the year. Late last Saturday night, I decided to lay the short number w/ Air Force at home. They waxed Utah State 31-7. Now we've got USU hosting BYU. The key here is that the Aggies are at home where they are averaging 44.0 PPG, which is well up from their paltry average on the road. Consider the Aggies have scored just 36 points TOTAL their L3 road games. Go w/ the Over here in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." BYU got last week off to celebrate their upset of Boise State. That was a much needed win as the Cougs entered that game on a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. Believe it or not, BYU has been favored only twice this year as they've taken on a pretty murderous schedule. While they've pulled three outright upsets (Boise St, USC, Tennessee), they lost both games they were favored outright! While ATS results may be wildly inconsistent, there at least has been a real consistency to the amount of total pts scored in BYU games this season. There's been no fewer than 42 (opener vs. Utah) and no more than 64 (loss to Washington). The other five games have all fallen between 49 and 57 total pts scored. Utah State, on the other hand, has had wildly different outcomes depending whether they are at home or on the road. Last week's disastrous effort can be chalked up to "one of those days" in my opinion. Remember what I'd written about in the analysis. The Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. Last week, Air Force had the ball for over 45 minutes! That led to the USU defense tiring (which is what I said would happen) and they ended up allowing 448 yds rushing! But this is a totally different team in Logan, especially the offense. You won't see all the three-and-outs you saw last week as the Aggies are going to look to "push tempo." The last two years have seen them score 40+ on the BYU defense. The L5 USU games have all gone Under. Time for an Over. 8* Over BYU/Utah State |
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11-02-19 | SMU v. Memphis UNDER 70.5 | Top | 48-54 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under SMU/Memphis (7:30 ET): This is a real "contrarian" type play with two high-scoring teams meeting in the Liberty Bowl Saturday night. A case could be made that this is the most significant game of the weekend as the result should go a long way in determining who is the "Group of 5" representative in the New Year's Six Bowl Games. SMU is undefeated (8-0), but is the underdog here and probably should be seeing as Memphis (7-1) is 17-2 SU its L19 home games w/ both losses coming by just a single point! But we want no part of laying this number now that it's been bet up. The total is predictably very high and that's where the true value is. Take the Under. SMU had a real "close call" last Thursday against Houston, winning 34-31 as double digit favorite. They were outgained 510-385 and needed a defensive stop on the final drive to preserve the victory. That wasn't the first "close call" the Mustangs have had this season. Half of their wins have been by six points or fewer, all four coming against teams that aren't going to end up in the Top 25. Last week was a season-low in points and yards for the SMU offense. It was also the first time this season that one of their games stayed Under the total. As a reminder, I had both Houston and the Under in that matchup. So I feel I've got a real "feel" for this team right now. Now Memphis had its own close call last week, holding on to beat Tulsa 42-41 as the Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard FG as time expired. Before you go dismissing the Tigers' defensive effort in that game (allowed 584 yards), note that they were on the field for 101 snaps! It was also a road game. Here at the Liberty Bowl, the Tigers are allowing only 18.5 PPG. They held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to just 10 pts in the season opener here. Now Memphis' last five games have all gone Over. But that was against a weaker slate of opponents than they'll face Saturday night. The Memphis streak of Overs, combined w/ SMU's O/U record have conspired to give us one of the higher O/U lines of this NCAAF season. It's not easy going Over a total this high. 10* Under SMU/Memphis |
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11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington OVER 47 | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
8* Over Utah/Washington (4:00 ET): Prior to two weeks ago, Washington had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's first year here in Seattle. Now it's happened two games in a row! The Huskies lost to Oregon despite leading most of the way and that was their third loss of the season. Now they host a Utah team that could very well end up playing Oregon for the Pac 12 Championship. I'm a little "gun-shy" about playing UW in this spot as Utah is the better team and comes in w/ a severe case of double revenge (lost twice to the Huskies last season). But fortunately the total seems to be providing some REAL value. Take the Over. It's not often that the Under would be considered a "public" play, but it is here w/ a Utah team that's gone Under in six straight while holding its last three opponents to 10 points total. Then you have the fact that the two games vs. Washington last season had final scores of 21-7 and 10-3. But the key here is that Washington just faced an Oregon defense that had a similar statistical profile to Utah and they were able to hang 31 points on them while gaining over 400 yards. For the season, Washington averages 35.7 PPG. They are probably the best offensive team Utah has faced so far in 2019. Utah is off its first shutout win as a Pac 12 member as they beat Cal 35-0 last week, holding the Bears to 83 total yards! The week previous saw them down Arizona State 21-3 while allowing just 136 total yards. Those are some really impressive numbers, but both games took place in Salt Lake City. Also, it's not as if the Utes' offense can't put some points on the board. They are averaging 33.1 PPG. Three of the six games that have stayed Under for Utah would have gone Over this particular O/U line. The Washington defense they'll face on Saturday is not as strong as they one they saw twice last year. The Huskies gave up only 16.4 PPG LY. With only two starters back from that group, they are allowing 28.3 the L3 games. 8* Over Utah/Washington |
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10-31-19 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State (8:00 ET): Appalachian State enters as one of nine unbeaten teams still remaining in College Football, but don't think for a second that the Mountaineers will be taking Georgia Southern very lightly. That's because LY the Eagles beat a ranked ASU squad (#25) 34-14 in Statesboro. Now that was a much better Ga Southern team (finished 10-3 SU) and the game was at home. But I still wouldn't expect any kind of defensive letdown from the favorite this week. With the weather forecast calling for heavy rain, Under is the call here. Both teams have run-oriented offenses and stout defenses. Though all seven games have ended in victory, the last three for Appalachian State have gone a lot differently than the previous three. They've allowed just 17 points total the L3 wks w/ the Under going 3-0. The Mountaineers' defense has allowed 7 pts or less four times this season. Last week's 30-3 win over South Alabama saw them allow just 139 total yards. The week before saw them allow just 213 in a 52-7 win over La Monroe. Don't look for ASU to score a ton this week, however. Not only will weather be a factor, but so will a Georgia Southern defense that has allowed fewer than 275 yards in each of its last three games. Last week, the Eagles held New Mexico State to 7 points in their most complete effort to date. These schools were conference rivals in the FCS days (played in the SoCon), so they've met every year going back to '93 (33 times total). The last five have come at the FBS level and only one of them has gone Over. That Over was last year, by a single point. App State lost starting QB Zac Thomas early in game and finished w/ only 288 yards and five turnovers. While they figure to gain more yards Thursday, the reduction in turnovers figures to be more significant. Those 5 TO's last year were converted into 24 pts by Ga Southern, including three touchdowns. While both offenses are effective at running the ball (both top 15 nationally in rush YPG), both defenses are also adept at stopping it. ASU may also be "saving" some of its trickier plays for next week's massive game at South Carolina. 10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State |
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10-26-19 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 54 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Duke/North Carolina (4:00 ET): This one may not mean as much as it does on the basketball court, but it's still a rivalry game where the two teams know each other well. Obviously, Mack Brown is in his first year back at Chapel Hill, but the teams play every year. It's a rivalry that has gone Duke's way each of the last three seasons w/ them winning by 1, 10 and 7 points. Certainly Brown is going to put an impetus on ending that particular losing streak. Speaking of streaks, Duke's last six games have all gone Over the total. Not this one though. They managed only 14 points in a road loss to Virginia last week while UNC's 43-41 final score (loss) to Va Tech last week is misleading in the sense that the game went to SIX overtimes! Take the Under. The UNC-Va Tech game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation last week. That's still a high-scoring game obviously, but Virginia Tech's defense is not good. Duke's defense may have turned in a season-worst effort last week in terms of points allowed (48) to Virginia, but note that came on just over 300 total yards allowed. Virginia returned a kickoff for a TD plus they had FIVE scoring drives of 40 yards or less. The Blue Devils definitely didn't help themselves by turning the ball over five times. Don't look for North Carolina to be gifted those same opportunities this week. Duke has has been bitten by the turnover bug twice now in 2019. But they've also had three games w/o a TO. Last week was just the second time in the L6 games that Duke allowed more than 23 pts. At the same time, Duke's offense only gained 250 total yards last week and one of their two touchdowns came in "garbage time." The L3 games have seen them barely average 300 YPG. Of course, a dropoff offensively was to be expected after losing a QB that was a 1st round draft choice by the NFL (Daniel Jones). But four games this year w/ less than 180 yards passing has to be a more severe decline than was expected. North Carolina's two highest scoring games of the season have come over the L2 weeks, but again there was the 6OT game last week and the other was against rebuilding Georgia Tech. QB Sam Howell threw for 348+ yards in the two games, but here he'll be facing a Duke defense that has has allowed more than 206 yds through their only one time since facing Alabama in the season opener. 10* Under Duke/North Carolina |
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10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado OVER 63.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over USC/Colorado (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals certainly appear to be trending in different directions. USC might only be 4-3, but we consider them to still be one of best 25 teams in America. They are coming off perhaps their finest effort of the season, a 41-14 beatdown of Arizona last weekend at the Coliseum. Meanwhile, the trajectory for Colorado is hardly ideal. The Buffaloes have lost three straight, the last two being absolute blowouts. They've allowed 30+ pts in every game this season. They are also 0-13 all-time vs. Southern Cal w/ eight of those losses coming in the L8 years as conference opponents. The Buffs should give up plenty of points again this week. But they should score plenty as well. Take the Over. Now one thing working in Colorado's favor here is USC's winless road record. The Trojans are 0-3 away from the Coliseum this year and have given up at least 28 points in all three losses. Don't be surprised if USC notches its first road win of the season Friday night in Boulder, but they'll give up plenty of points while doing so. Colorado QB Steven Montez has not played particularly well the L2 games, but those were on the road. Despite allowing only 14 pts last week to Arizona, it's not as if the USC defense was that stout. They still gave up almost 400 yds and 22 first downs. They should feel fortunate that Arizona missed a pair of field goals, turned it over on downs inside the red zone and had three turnovers. The Over is 5-0 after the L5 times USC has allowed 20 pts or fewer. The bad news for Colorado is that their defense has been atrocious for 1st year HC Mel Tucker. The L3 games alone have seen them allow a total of 121 points. So Southern Cal should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring in this game. This is an offense averaging 431.6 YPG and has Kedon Slovis back at QB. Colorado is allowing over 500 YPG the L3 weeks at 7.2 yards per play. Only 13 teams in the country are giving up more yards per pass attempt for the year. USC's last five games may have all gone Under, but they've finally found an opponent conducive for an Over. In fact, this probably the weakest defense they've faced in 2019. Figuring Colorado's offense should improve at home, we've got ourselves a likely shootout Friday night in Boulder. 10* Over USC/Colorado |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston UNDER 66 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under SMU/Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." Not only are they 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, but they are also the only team in the country to have gone Over in every game. An offense led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele is averaging 44.3 PPG, which is tied for 5th most in the country. However, don't be surprised if this Thursday game turns out to be one of SMU's lower scoring efforts of the year. Take the Under. Houston's season couldn't be more different than that of SMU. In his first year on the job, HC Dana Holgorsen has suffered some serious attrition w/ both QB D'Eriq King and WR Keith Corbin electing to redshirt. Even King's replacement, Clayton Tune, has been out w/ an injury. This has obviously had a serious impact on the Cougars' offense, which could only manage 24 pts last week in a win over sorry UConn. That was w/ Holgorsen's son starting at QB. Tune is expected back, which will be a boost. But don't go expecting Houston to score as much as they were back when King was under center. Before beating UConn, they could only manage 23 pts in a loss to Cincinnati. The Cougars' last four games have all seen totals lower than this one and the Over is 3-1. But the first three games all had higher O/U lines and the Under was 3-0. SMU has scored 40+ in every game this year since a 37-30 win over Arkansas State in Week 1 where they were actually an underdog. I already mentioned how the Over is 7-0 in their games this season. But only one, a 49-27 win over North Texas, had a higher O/U line. The Mustangs defense should do a fairly decent job in this one as we don't think the absences of King and Corbin on the other side have been properly reflected when it comes to the total. The Under is 14-5 in UH's L19 games off an ATS loss. The Under is also 5-1 the L6 meetings here in Houston. 10* Under SMU/Houston |
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10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic OVER 59 | Top | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:30 ET): FAU started the season w/ a couple of treacherous games against Ohio State and Central Florida. They obviously lost both, but what's interesting there is they actually stayed closer on the road against the Buckeyes (lost by 24) than they did at home vs. UCF (lost by 34). The Owls' game w/ Ohio St actually is tied for the Buckeyes' slimmest margin of victory all season. Since opening 0-2, FAU has battled back w/ four consecutive wins, one of them being our #1 NCAAF Play for September, a 45-27 win at Charlotte where they were just a 1-pt favorite. That was the Owls' third straight game scoring 40+ points, but last week was a much more low-scoring affair w/ Middle Tennessee as they "only" won 28-13. Look for Lane's crew to get back on track offensively here. Take the Over. Marshall is coming off a 31-17 win over Old Dominion. That was one of the higher scoring efforts of the year from the Thundering Herd, who have now topped 30 pts in a game three times, all in Huntington. If one were to simply look at the final score from their last road game (at Middle Tennessee), one might reasonably conclude that the offense "forgot to show up" in Murfreesboro. However, the Herd actually gained 578 yards total offense in that game, only to be undone by four costly turnovers. Last week, the offense rolled up 444 more yards, which was the 4th time in 6 games they've hit that threshold in 2019. Similarly, Doc Holliday's defense has had its ups and downs. They held ODU to just 206 yds last week, but before that had been torched for 400+ yds by every other FBS opponent on the schedule. Even with the O/U line already being bet up a bit, by kickoff, this still figures to be the lowest for any Florida Atlantic game this year against a FBS team. Before LW's game vs. MTSU, every FAU game had seen a minimum of 59 pts scored. QB Chris Robison had thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games before facing MTSU. But fortunately he was bailed out by a rushing attack that went for 200+ yards for a second straight week. Marshall's PPG average is misleading when you consider they are actually 4th in C-USA in total offense. Similarly, the FAU defense have been "bend but don't break" as they are 12th in the 14-team conference in yards allowed. We look for somewhat of a shootout Friday night in Boca Raton. 10* Over Marshall/Florida Atlantic |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over South Alabama/Troy (8:00 ET): South Alabama has not done much scoring in recent weeks. They've managed a total of only 43 points the L4 games, all of which have stayed Under. The Jaguars have hung tough in losses to the likes of Nebraska (35-21), LA Monroe (30-17) and Ga Southern (20-17), covering the spread in all those games. But still, their only win was against a FCS team (37-14 over Jackson State). The last time we saw USA, it was a play for us (+10) vs. Ga Southern. They covered the entire game before eventually losing in double overtime. This Wednesday matchup w/ Troy should at least lead to an increase in scoring, taking into account Troy's full body of work. Take the Over. Troy's last two games have both been losses and they've given up 92 points in them. Before we go dismissing last week's effort as a product of facing Missouri (allowed 42 points), realize that they allowed 50 the previous week to Arkansas State and that was here at home. There was another game where they allowed 47 (to Southern Miss). If you take out games against Campbell (FCS) and Akron (worst team in FBS?), then the Trojans' defense has given up an average of 46.3 points and 542 yards per game. Missouri actually scored and gained less than both Southern Miss and Arkansas State did. On the bright side, Troy did score at least 35 points in every game before facing Mizzou. They hit 485 total yards each of those first four games. So it's pretty reasonable to expect Troy to go back to scoring a ton of points this week now that they're not up against a SEC defense. South Alabama's defense is allowing 400 YPG and that number goes way up if you take out the first two games. They've allowed 30+ pts in four of their six games. Something about that Troy-Missouri game that needs to noted is that Troy allowed all 42 pts in the first half! Mizzou QB Kelly Bryant got hurt on the final throw of the 1H and the Tigers did nothing offensively (didn't have to) coming out of the break. So there is hope for the struggling USA offense in this one. Troy also saw its starting QB go down in the Missouri game, but the backup (if needed here) has appeared in three games this year, so he's game-tested. 10* OVER South Alabama/Troy |