Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 59 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Colorado/Oregon (10:00 ET): Oregon (#13) has a large edge on the defensive side of the ball over Colorado. The Ducks are allowing just 9.8 PPG while the Buffaloes are giving up 31.6 PPG and that right there explains why the home team is such a prohibitive favorite Friday night in Autzen. But on the offensive side of the ball, the teams are actually pretty even. Colorado averages 34.6 PPG, slightly ahead of Oregon's 34.2. Truthfully, more was expected from this Ducks offense w/ 10 starters back including QB Justin Herbert. They've only topped 21 pts twice, but here they should have their way w/ a suspect Colorado defense. We're on the Over in this one. Coming off a bye, Oregon had a bit of a disappointing effort last week against Cal. They still won mind you, but only 17-7 as 21-point favorites here at home. Three first half turnovers really hurt as the Ducks actually went into halftime w/ 0 points on the scoreboard. That won't happen again here. Cal has one of the better defenses in the Pac 12, if not the country. The week before Oregon faced another tough defense in Stanford. Colorado has given up more points than every Pac 12 team besides UCLA this year. Herbert has thrown a TD pass in 33 consecutive games, the nation's longest active streak, and has 15 already this year. That's the best five-game stretch by ANY QB in Oregon history. A couple of injury-related tibits should benefit the Colorado offense in this one. One, they could get back WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who missed LW's 35-30 loss to Arizona. Even w/o him, the Buffs still gained over 500 yards. On the other side, Oregon's defense will be w/o DE Gus Cumberlander, whose season is over due to a knee injury. For Colorado QB Steven Montez, it's come full circle as his first career start came against Oregon back in 2016. Montez and the Buffs were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the outright upset. The final score was 41-38. This Colorado offense will arguably be the best the Oregon defense has faced all season. Both Herbert and Montez should have their respective offenses moving the ball regularly in this one. 10* Over Colorado/Oregon |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -112 | 50 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Temple/East Carolina (8:00 ET): Saturday's 24-21 win over Old Dominion marked the fifth straight East Carolina game to stay Under the total this year. There are only three other teams in the country that are 4-0 Under, one of them being ODU. Not that Saturday's game didn't have its chances to go Over. It was 17-3 in the second quarter w/ ODU knocking on the doorstep. But the Monarchs fumbled at the goal line and the trajectory of the game really never recovered. It was 17-13 midway through the third quarter, but there were four consecutive punts after that, followed by 2 ODU interceptions w/ a missed ECU field goal in between. It really was a frustrating loss for us and anyone else who may have had the Over. Temple just grounded Georgia Tech, holding them to only 2 points on Saturday. So you may be of the opinion that the Owls are not the ideal opponent for East Carolina to snap it's Under streak. Temple has gone for just 22 PPG since opening the year w/ a 56-14 win over Canisius. But they did give up 38 in their lone road game, which doubles as their lone loss, at Buffalo two weeks ago (as two touchdown favorites). That was a huge letdown spot for the Owls as they were coming off their own upset, of previously red-hot Maryland (who has since been badly "exposed."). Also, you can run on this Owls' defense. The last three weeks have seen them surrender 500+ yards over land. Since becoming conference rivals, these teams have played every year. Not surprisingly, Temple has won all five meetings. They've held East Carolina to 14 points or less every time. But we see the Pirates easily topping that number Thursday. While the only two prior home games this year were against FCS opponents, the offensive numbers for ECU look a lot better in Greenville (6.4 yards per play). While we did note that this Pirates' defense is seemingly much improved this year, they did give up 49 pts to Temple LY. They've also already given up 34 to NC State and 42 to Navy this year. The oddsmakers are being kind w/ this number (at least from where we sit) and the Over is 4-1 in Temple's last five road contests. 10* Over Temple/East Carolina |
|||||||
09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -109 | 68 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion (6:00 ET): This is a similar type deal to last week's top total on the Under in Kentucky-Miss State. Only this time, we're looking at an Over. What's the similarity then? Well, as noted last week, Kentucky & Miss State had combined to go 6-0 Over in their first six games. Here, the teams have combined to 7-0 to the Under. We can't wholeheartedly endorse either offense, but b/c of the OU records, this number is low. Too low. It's one of the lowest on the board Saturday. These teams combined for 72 points last season, a 37-35 ECU win as seven-point favorites. Might not be that high-scoring again, but it goes Over. The total for that meeting LY in Greenvile was 60.5. Thus, it's quite the drop a year later (almost two touchdowns). That ECU win LY even came before current QB Holton Ahlers took over. Interestingly, Old Dominion's new DC (David Blackwell) was East Carolina's DC last season. Blackwell's new unit is showing similar improvement to what we saw w/ ECU LY as the Monarchs gave up only 244 total yds. But don't let the fact ECU scored only 19 last week fool you. The Pirates put up 480 total yds on William & Mary. But they settled for five field goal attempts, missing one. The Pirates' offense should know what what ODU is going to do defensively here due to the familiarity w/ the coordinator. They did score 48 themselves in a win earlier in the year over Gardner-Webb. Blackwell leaving ECU does adversely affect their defense. While we thought the Pirates only scoring 19 last week was misleading, so was the fact they only gave up seven points. W&M had three drives of 36+ yards ending w/ them turning it over on downs. The Pirates won't be able to bend like that w/o breaking again this week as they are facing a FBS opponent. After playing the defenses of Va Tech and Virginia, Old Dominion will welcome this chance to face a defense that has allowed over 480 YPG its first two times playing on the road. The Pirates allowed 34 and 42 pts in those games as well. ODU actually led Virginia 17-0 in the first half last week. The game ended up staying Under by only 2 points and that was vs. a much better defense. 10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion |
|||||||
09-21-19 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 48 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi St (4:00 ET): So this matchup is quite the reverse of Thursday night's Over play on Houston-Tulane. The Thursday night game saw the teams come in w/ a combined 6-0 Under mark while this Saturday afternoon battle in the SEC sees two teams that are 6-0. Something else Kentucky and Miss State have in common here is both are coming in off narrow losses at home last week. Kentucky lost to Florida 29-21 while Mississippi State was upset here in Starkville by a Kansas State team that it looks like we all underestimated. But what we're interested in here is the total as one of the starting QB's may be OUT here (Miss St) and last year's game was really low scoring. That's what we are anticipating again here. Take the Under. You had to figure MSU's defense would take a step back this year after giving up just 13.2 PPG a season ago. That was #2 in the country, behind only Alabama, but three #1 NFL Draft choices left that group. Still, it's been disconcerting to see the Bulldogs give up so many points early on, including 28 to Louisiana and 31 LW to Kansas State. Note, however, that they allowed less than 300 total yards in last week's loss. The difference in the game ended up being a 100-yard kick return for TD by Kansas State, which came just after Miss St had taken a seven-point lead. The Bulldogs defense than uncharacteristically wilted late, giving up a six-play, 53-yard drive to lose the game. Before that, they had been just fine. But Miss St potentially has bigger problems heading into this game as QB Tommy Stevens may not play. A shoulder injury has limited him each of the L2 games and last week he had to be taken out after throwing two picks and completing only 7 of 15 passes for 100 yards. Regardless of whether or not Stevens does play here, this Under is play is on as he clearly won't be at 100 percent. Last year, the Bulldogs' offense managed only 7 points as they were upset on the road by Kentucky. But we still trust that defense to play better than it has. Kentucky was probably the least dominant 10-win team in the country a year ago, so they figure to take a step back in 2019. They lost their top offensive player from LY (RB Benny Snell) and have only four starters back from a defense that gave up just 16.8 PPG. Still, they did hold Florida to just 10 points through three quarters last week (fell apart in 4Q) after allowing only 17 pts the previous game. 10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi State |
|||||||
09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 57.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Houston/Tulane (8:00 ET): Suffice to say, most probably wouldn't have banked on Tulane being favored over Houston in this game, let alone by more than a field goal. But the Green Wave have looked strong in both their wins, the first of which we were on as they clobbered FIU 42-14 as just a three-point home favorite in the opener. The big difference right now between them and Houston is that they've faced just one Power 5 opponent (Auburn) while UH has faced two (Oklahoma, Washington State). That is basically the sole reason Tulane comes into this game at 2-1 while Houston is 1-2. We cashed the Cougars in Week 1 as they covered at Oklahoma. They also covered last week vs. Washington State. Both of these teams can claim to have blown out a FCS opponent. It's really a pretty even matchup as Tulane is certainly improved while Houston is better than its record. Something else the teams have in common is they've gone Under in every game. Well, that comes w/ a caveat. There was no O/U line posted for Tulane's game last week, a 58-6 win over Missouri State. One would think if there had been, the game would have gone Over with that final score. The Green Wave offense is averaging 436 YPG, led by QB Justin McMillan. Since he took over as the starter halfway through last season, this has been a much better football team. They've gone 7-2 SU with the only losses coming to Auburn (24-6) two weeks ago and to ... Houston (48-17) last year. The Green Wave have scored 28 and 38 points in the first halves of their two home games this year. They have five players w/ at least 96 rush yards so far this season. Houston had a poor finish to last season (cost Major Applewhite his job), but remember what we said in the analysis for the Oklahoma game. That poor finish was tied to the loss of QB D'Eriq King (injured) for the last two games. Ironically, the injury he suffered (knee) last year came against this Tulane team. Before getting hurt, King accounted for FIFTY touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing), which led all of FBS. The bad news for the Cougars is the defense, which has given up 686 yards to Oklahoma, 343 to Prairie View A&M and 489 to Washington State. Both of these offenses can move the ball and score. The O/U lines for the first three Houston games were all 74+ points. The O/U line for LY's meeting was 68.0. So getting a number like this one seems like a real value play. 10* Over Houston/Tulane |
|||||||
09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville (8:00 ET): This number has been bet way down, opening up an opportunity to bet the game Over. Louisville is coming off an absolutely disastrous 2018 campaign that led to Bobby Petrino being run out of town (again!) But as bad as last year was, I think Scott Sattefield is walking into a fairly ideal situation here as the Cardinals can only improve in 2019. Aiding in that improvement is the fact there are 16 returning starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. But make no mistake about it, this defense has a LONG way to go after giving up a ghastly 44.1 PPG a year ago. While Louisville fell into the abyss, Notre Dame made it all the way to the College Football Playoff. They were of course embarrassed by Clemson, losing 30-3 as 12-pt underdogs. That line and subsequent result raised questions about whether or not the Irish were deserving of the spot in the playoffs, but if this school goes unbeaten in the regular season, they're always going to get in. I don't think this is anything close to a playoff team in 2019 and in fact expect some fairly serious regression in South Bend. They were a perfect 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less last year and that isn't likely to repeat itself. Notre Dame's defense was really good last year, giving up just 18.2 PPG. That was their lowest number under HC Brian Kelly since the team that reached the Nat'l Champ Game in 2012 (and also got embarrassed). But they lost three players to the NFL Draft on that side of the ball as well as three of their top five tacklers. Louisville isn't going to be as inept offensively as they were last year, but the defense will continue to struggle early on, despite all those returning starters. Both teams return LY's starter at QB, so it'll be the offenses that are ahead of the defenses in this one. Louisville closed last season on a 7-1 Over run. 10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville |
|||||||
01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 59 | Top | 16-44 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): This is the 4th time in 4 years that these schools are facing off in the College Football Playoff. It will be the third time they're playing to determine the National Championship. Alabama won the first go-around, 45-40 in 2016, a game which featured a 40-point fourth quarter. A year later, Deshaun Watson & Clemson returned the favor, winning 35-31 on a last second TD. Last year, they met in the semifinal round and Bama won handily, 24-6. There is no doubt that Clemson is a better team this year w/ Trevor Lawrence at QB. Alabama also has a different QB than last year as Tua Tagovailoa, who remember didn't come in until LY's Champ Game vs. Georgia. But despite the new QBs, don't expect scoring to be on the level of the 2016 or even 2017 games. Take the Under here. I was on the Over in both of those previous Bama-Clemson National Championship Games. The offenses now, particularly Alabama's (best ever under Saban?), are better. I was also on the Over in LY's Bama-Georgia Champ Game, which ended up being a lucky winner (OT), but I argued that the respective offenses were being undervalued coming into that game. This year, I think it's the defenses that are being undervalued. Clemson is #2 in the country in scoring defense (13.7 PPG allowed) and #3 in efficiency. Alabama is #4 in scoring (14.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. So let's not make the mistake of forgetting about those two units, OK? Despite not having Dexter Lawrence, the Clemson defense gave up next to nothing to Notre Dame in the semifinal matchup. I had the Under in that game as the Tigers rolled to a 30-3 victory, giving up just 248 total yds of offense. Now, it will obviously not be that easy here. But aside from that perplexing performance vs. South Carolina, this Clemson defense has not allowed more than 16 points since September. Not to be outdone, Alabama just held the nation's top offense (Oklahoma) well under its season average in PPG. The 34 pts allowed in the semfinal actually marked a season high for the Crimson Tide, but given the opponent that's actually an admirable number. It was also just the third time all year they allowed more than 23 points. Eight times, they allowed 17 pts or less. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Clemson/Alabama |
|||||||
01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Texas/Georgia (8:45 ET): Something will have to give here. Georgia has gone 6-1-1 ATS its last eight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. But Texas' HC Tom Herman has a ridiculous mark as an underdog in his career, going 12-3 ATS w/ 10 outright upsets. My own personal numbers indicate that UGA absolutely deserves to be favored in this price range. But there may be an issue of motivation w/ them coming up short against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Therefore, with two defensive minded teams, I'm on the Under in this year's Sugar Bowl. Georgia is a top five team in defensive efficiency and allows just 18.5 PPG (top 15 in the country). They allow just 311.2 YPG. After the gap between the winners and losers in Saturday's CFP semifinals became readily apparent, I think it should be obvious to all that the Dawgs are pretty clearly one of the four best teams in America (maybe 3rd?). While there last three games all went Over the total, two of those were against overmatched opponents where the offense was able to score at will. That won't be the case here vs. Texas. The other was the SEC Champ Game vs. an Alabama team that has the best offense of the Saban era. Playing indoors (Cowboys Stadium), Texas was able to hold the top scoring offense in the country (Oklahoma) to "just" 39 points. That's no small feat. You may recall I had the Under in the game, which cashed pretty easily. Texas' last three games all stayed Under. Despite routinely facing some of the top offenses in the country, the Longhorns managed to allow just 26.2 PPG during the regular season. Georgia, while potentially explosive offensively, is not as explosive as some of the Big 12 teams Texas is used to facing. The Under is 4-1 in Texas' last five bowl games and 31-11 their L42 games vs. teams w/ a winning record. 10* Under Texas/Georgia |
|||||||
01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida UNDER 58 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under LSU/Central Florida (1:00 ET): This is the Fiesta Bowl w/ 9-3 LSU of the SEC taking on a 12-0 Central Florida team that just completed its second unbeaten regular season in as many years. It's always fun to see how the so-called "Group of Five" teams (best team from CFB's five smallest conferences) do against the big boys in these New Year's Six Bowl Games. Quite frankly, they've more than held their own, going not only 4-1 ATS, but also pulling four outright upsets. That includes an upset by UCF (over Auburn) in LY's Peach Bowl. Unfortunately for this year's Golden Knights, they're going to have to make a go of it this time w/o QB McKenzie Milton, who suffered a season-ending injury in the regular season finale. Ultimately, I believe that injury will prevent UCF from winning here. It also should result in a much lower-scoring game than anticipated. Now, I know what UCF fans are probably saying. "Without Milton, we just scored 56 points in the AAC Championship Game." This is true. But that was against a porous Memphis defense that allows over 425 YPG (gave up 37 in the bowl to Wake Forest). Here, the Knights must contend w/ a LSU defense that is top 10 nationally in efficiency. The Tigers allow only 20.9 PPG and that number would be even lower were it not for the insane regular season finale that they played against Texas A&M and wound up going SEVEN overtimes and a 74-72 final. In nine wins this year, LSU never gave up more than 21 points. They allowed 17 or fewer in seven games. They will easily be the best defense that UCF has seen all season. Speaking of defense, UCF has a pretty good one as well. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (too late?), the Knights competition was nowhere close to what LSU faced in the rugged SEC, but they still only allowed 21.2 PPG and the American does have some really good offensive teams. With Milton out, defense may be how UCF hangs around in this one. Eight of UCF's 12 games have stayed Under this year w/ the AAC Champ Game snapping a string of Unders. This number has been bet up and I now find that the value is on the Under. 8* Under LSU/Central Florida |
|||||||
12-29-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl will play host to the second CFP semifinal of Saturday evening as #1 Alabama takes on #4 Oklahoma. We are dealing with two of the top offenses in the country here. In fact, they rank #1 and #2 in the country in scoring w/ OU leading the way at 49.5 PPG and Bama not far behind at 47.9. The Sooners are #1 in most offensive categories while the Crimson Tide are top five. However, and rightly so, all the focus going into this game will center around the health of the two starting QBs. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray is reportedly battling an unspecified illness while Alabama's Tua Tagovailao is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. In the end, both should be fine and play well. I expect this to be a completely wild game, full of scoring. Take the Over. If Alabama can score 35 against Georgia's defense w/ Tua not even playing a full game, then just imagine what they can do against Oklahoma' shaky stop unit. The Sooners already give up 38.5 PPG outside of Norman and allowed more than that in their last three games. Now they face not only the best offense they'll see all year, but probably the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era. Think about that for a minute. The Tide scored at least 45 pts in all but four games and that's after going through a SEC gauntlet that features numerous defenses that are substantially better than OU. It is not unrealistic to believe Bama can score every time they have the ball in this game. If for some reason Tua is not firing on all cylinders, the Tide have a proven "backup" in Jalen Hurts. With Bama likely to score at will in this game, Oklahoma will be left to play "catch up." Fortunately, Murray and company will be more than happy to oblige, even against the usual ferocious Bama defense. Oklahoma's offensive numbers are just ridiculous. The only opponent that was able to even remotely slow them down was Army, who played a brand of "keep away" that I'm not sure any other team in the country is capable of playing. In the face of very high weekly totals, Oklahoma still went 10-3 Over. (Alabama is 9-4). With the two top offenses in the country clashing here, I have zero hesitation about betting the Over, even with the high O/U line. 10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama |
|||||||
12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson (4:00 ET): The big story for this College Football Playoff semifinal is that Clemson has lost DT Dexter Lawrence to a failed drug test. Right now, Notre Dame seems to be the one semifinalist floating under the radar. Both teams in the other game (Alabama-Oklahoma) are dealing with health issues at QB. The Fighting Irish don't seem to have any issues coming into this game and should be in a far greater position to compete compared to that now-infamous showing vs. Alabama in 2012, the last time they tried to compete for a national title. Both of these teams are really strong defensively w/ Clemson having a legit claim to being the top stop unit in the country (w/ Lawrence). I don't think Lawrence's absence will end up hurting the Tigers that much - or stop this game from staying Under. Notre Dame only gives up 17.2 points per game. The secondary has allowed just seven touchdown passes and has 12 interceptions. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is very talented, but remember he's a freshman and this will obviously be the biggest game of his career. Not only are the Fighting Irish adept at defending the pass, they also allow only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Irish did not allow more than 27 points in any game this year and allowed 17 or less eight times. This is a team that was an underdog only once in the regular season, the opener vs. Michigan, and that game stayed Under. So did their final two regular season games. Clemson has the best defense in the country. Losing a player the caliber of Lawrence could be crippling for most defenses, but this one happens to have three other NFL prospects along its defensive line. The Tigers allow only 13.7 PPG, fewest in the country, and were #1 in the efficiency ratings as well. Notre Dame has not faced a defense this good all year, obviously, or one that's even close. The Tigers did have that poor showing vs. South Carolina, but allowed 200 or fewer yds in two of the last four regular season games. They allow only 2.4 yards per rush and fewer than 100 YPG over land. I don't see Clemson going "off" offensively here, so between that and their top ranked defense, Under is an easy call. 8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson |
|||||||
12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue UNDER 55.5 | Top | 63-14 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Auburn/Purdue (1:30 ET): One team is likely thrilled to be here in the Music City Bowl while the other is certainly likely to view the assignment as a massive disappointment. It shouldn't take a Rhodes Scholar to find out which is which. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team that lost five regular season games while Purdue is not only back in a bowl for just the second time since 2012 (played in the Foster Farms Bowl LY), but was also able to keep its HC (Jeff Brohm) from bolting for Louisville. Auburn had its own coaching drama and while Gus Mahlzan is staying put, there are many in the fanbase that probably aren't too happy about that. But before simply betting Purdue based on a motivational handicap, let's be aware that the Boilermakers are definitely the less talented side here. They needed to beat Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket in the regular season finale just to get bowl eligible. Led by the QB-WR combo of David Blough & Rondale Moore, Purdue definitely had some impressive performances this year, most notably the 49-20 win over Ohio State. But they also turned in some head-scratchers, like a home loss to Eastern Michigan and 41-10 defeat at Minnesota. The Under was 4-1 in their road games during the regular season as not only did they score a fewer number of points per game, they also allowed a fewer number. The Under was also 4-1 in Auburn's road games, but in their case it was all about an offense that could only average 18.4 PPG. There will be much discussion about this Tigers' offense, which will have a new coordinator next season and a new QB. (Jarrett Stidham is leaving for the NFL after this game). But for the Music City Bowl, Mahlzan will be the playcaller. Stidham had a disappointing year w/ his numbers down across the board compared to last year. The Auburn run game was not particularly effective either, topping 130 yds just twice besides games vs. Liberty & Alabama State. Five times they were held to 103 yds or less on the ground. Mahlzan is 4-0-1 Under in bowl games as the HC here. 10* Under Auburn/Purdue |
|||||||
12-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Baylor UNDER 56 | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): I think we've got a situation here where those who have looked at this matchup (Texas Bowl) see a couple of teams whose games stayed Under with a high degree of regularity in the regular season, and think the "worm is due to turn" so to speak. I can't fault that line of thinking as - often times - everything does eventually regress back to the mean. However, in the case of this Baylor-Vandy matchup, I don't see a particularly high scoring game playing out. Both teams are happy to be here, especially Baylor after everything that program has been through and they get to stay in-state as well. Take the Under here. Vanderbilt's QB Kyle Shurmur (son of Giants' HC Pat) will more than likely become the school's all-time passing leader in this game as he needs only 118 yards to pass Jay Cutler for the honor. But Shurmur was only sixth in the SEC in passing yards per game during the regular season. When playing outside of Nashville this year, the Commodores averaged only 22.0 PPG. That number is down considerably from what they averaged at home. In the three road games vs. ranked opponents, they managed just 37 pts total. Now those games were against Notre Dame, Georgia and Kentucky, all of whom have much better defenses than Baylor. But I still think it's instructive as to how the Vandy offense is capable of faltering. Baylor being back in a bowl so soon is pretty shocking. The Bears won just one game LY, but give credit to HC Matt Rhule for engineering a tremendous turnaround. We usually associate offense with Baylor and while this team averaged a solid 28.3 PPG, that was actually their lowest scoring average since '09, or pre-RGIII. In each of the Bears' last four losses, they were held to 17 points or less. They're without leading receiver Jalen Hurd for this bowl game and without kicker Drew Galitz. Vanderbilt has a much stronger defense than what Baylor is used to seeing in the Big 12. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in red zone efficiency and I look for that to be a big factor in this game staying Under the total. 10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt |
|||||||
12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin OVER 45.5 | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
8* Over Miami/Wisconsin (5:15 ET): There is quite a bit to unpack here for this year's New Era Pinstripe Bowl. First off, what makes this particular Bowl Game different is that it's played at Yankee Stadium, meaning cold temperatures are a factor. That has played into the narrative that Wisconsin will have an advantage as their opponent hails from the much warmer climate. But be aware that these teams met last year in the Orange Bowl, where you'd think Miami would have had the significant edge (a virtual home game!) and the Badgers won there, 34-24 as six-point favorites. Lastly, Miami announced yday that it will be going back to Malik Rosier as the starting QB, as opposed to N'Kosi Perry, who had started the final three regular season games. Wisconsin seems like the popular side here, but this Badgers team wasn't quite up to par this year. They entered 2018 as a National Title Contender and had a schedule that appeared tailor-made for an unbeaten run. Instead, they lost five games and didn't even win their division. In three of the five losses, they allowed 30+ points. Overall, this year's defense was simply not what we are used to seeing out of Madison, a theme for this game. But on offense, I look for the Badgers to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. Behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation, they'll feed RB Jonathan Taylor, who led all RB's in rushing yardage this season, averaging 166 per game. Miami is w/o its best run stopper - Gerald Harris -for this game. There will probably be an overreaction in the marketplace to Rosier starting in place of Perry for Miami. For our purposes, the move is great. The Under was 3-0 in Perry's three starts. Overall, Miami has gone Under in its last six games. But the Over was 5-1 in their first six games, all w/ Rosier under center, so don't fall victim to any recency bias. Wisconsin will also be w/o one of its top defenders, LB Ryan Connelly, here. These teams blew past the total in LY's Orange Bowl and are more than capable of doing it again here w/ an even lower number. I think the cold weather is overrated in handicapping this game as it shouldn't stop either offense from scoring. 8* Over Miami/Wisconsin |
|||||||
12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy UNDER 50 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Buffalo/Troy (7:00 ET): The Dollar General Bowl is a bit of a tough assignment for Buffalo. Not only are they playing a virtual road game (Troy to Mobile is less than a 3 hr drive), but they're still trying to get over the pain of blowing a 19-point lead to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. That 30-29 loss definitely still stings, but the Bulls still have a chance here to record their 11th victory of the season, which would be a single-season record for the program. This is a matchup of two of the better Group of 5 teams and I don't think motivation will be an issue for either side. Thus, this won't be one of those bowl games without any defense. I'm on the Under. Troy is going for its third straight 10-win season, which would be a first in the history of the program. Rather quietly, the Trojans have won 20 of their last 24 games, including a 2-0 mark in bowl under HC Neal Brown. But the offense didn't exactly have the most explosive finish to the regular season, scoring a combined 22 points in the final two games. The Troy offense is operating w/ a backup QB, Sawyer Smith, who took over for the injured Kaleb Barker in the middle of the season. In those final two regular season games, the Trojans' offense gained just 220 and 232 total yards. One of those games was against Texas State, at home! What Troy can and will lean on here is an excellent defense. The Trojans give up just 21.2 PPG and that number drops considerably when you take out the 59 they allowed at Boise State in the season opener. Since that season opener, they have not allowed more than 27 in any game. They've allowed 21 or fewer in 10 of 12 games. We know Buffalo has an explosive offensive, but Northern Illinois shut them down in the 2nd half of the MAC Title Game and that may be the blueprint Troy needed for stopping the Bulls here. Buffalo is no slouch defensively either as they allow just 24.7 PPG. I look for this to be one of the lower scoring games of the entire bowl season. 10* Under Buffalo/Troy |
|||||||
12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Marshall/USF (8:00 ET): I spent a good portion of this season railing against how fradulent South Florida's record was and it turned out that I couldn't have been more correct. At one point, the Bulls were 7-0 SU and ranked in the top 25. I thought the ranking was ridiculous as they were shockingly low in my power rankings. Sure enough, they dropped their final five regular season games, all by double digits. A team that was ranked and unbeaten in late October finished outside of the top 90 (!) in my personal power rankings, making them one of my lowest rated teams to make a bowl. As much as I'd love to fade them again here (I was 5-0 ATS fading them in the regular season), the Gasparilla Bowl is a home game for them (played in Tampa) and I think there's a chance they might "show up" Friday, at least offensively. Marshall is 11-2 SU all-time in bowl games. That's the highest win percentage for any team in the country w/ at least five bowl appearances. They are 5-0 SU and ATS under current HC Doc Holliday. They went 8-4 SU in the regular season, led by a defense that was outstanding, especially against the run. The Thundering Herd didn't allow a single 100-yd rusher in those 12 games and allows just 2.9 yards per carry. However, that stop unit did begin to wane late in the regular season. They allowed 190 rush yds in a narrow escape over FIU and then were shredded for 41 points by Va Tech in a game that wasn't scheduled until two weeks prior (Va Tech needed a 12th game to become bowl eligible and both they and Marshall had games postponed early in the year by Hurricane Florence). The offenses that the Marshall defense shut down were generally pretty bad. South Florida averages 29.2 PPG, but was scoring far more before QB Blake Barnett got hurt late in the year, causing him to miss two of the final three regular season games. Hopefully, Barnett will be able to play here. Regardless, the Bulls have a new playcaller for the bowl ( TE coach Justin Burke) as former OC Sterlin Gilbert bolted for McNeese State. During USF's 7-0 start, the offense went over 600 yds three different times. But perhaps the biggest key to this Over play is how bad the Bulls' defense is. It surrendered 442.2 YPG and was particularly brutal against the run. Six of USF's last seven opponents ran for at least 220 yards w/ three of those going for at least 322 (including UConn!). 10* Over Marshall/USF |
|||||||
12-15-18 | North Texas v. Utah State OVER 67 | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -115 | 235 h 52 m | Show |
8* Over North Texas/Utah State (2:00 ET): The build for the 2018 New Mexico Bowl centers as much around who is/isn't coaching as anything else. Seth Litrell has decided to remain at North Texas after flirting w/ the Kansas State job. Utah State isn't so lucky as they lost HC Matt Wells to Texas Tech. (Former Aggies HC Gary Andersen will replace him, returning to Logan after leaving for Wisconsin six years ago and then a failed stint at Oregon State. But it will be USU assistant Frank Maile coaching the bowl game). Let's not let the respective coaching situations overshadow the growth of these two programs. Even though this spread is one of the largest of the non-CFP games, these are two of the best non-P5 teams in America. I expect a high-scoring affair in Albuquerque come Saturday afternoon. North Texas started the season strong. They were 6-1 SU midway through October and had a win over an SEC school (Arkansas). But a 2-3 SU finish (also 0-5 ATS) resulted in the Mean Green not making the C-USA Champ Game for 2nd straight year. They averaged 36.4 PPG and 472.8 YPG on offense, both of which were top 20 nationally. However, the Under went 11-1 in their 12 regular season games, making them the top Under team in the entire country. That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing a pretty high total for this matchup w/ Utah State. That's because the Aggies bring in an offense the likes of which this Mean Green defense hasn't seen all season. Utah State averaged 47.2 PPG during the regular season. Only two teams scored more - Oklahoma and Alabama. So being in the top three is pretty impressive company. The Aggies lost only two games in the regular season, their first (in OT at Michigan State) and last (33-24 at Boise State). In between, they won 10 straight games. While Wells is gone, the offense he built is still in place and should continue scoring at will. Unlike UNT, the Over hit more often than not for USU, going 8-3-1. So it's one of the top Over teams vs. the top Under team. My read is that both offenses are going to have their way here and we'll see little in the way of defense. Utah State plays at a fast tempo and North Texas is unlike most opponents in that they will keep pace thanks to QB Mason Fine, who threw for 300 yds and 2 TDs in all but two games this year. The Mean Green have one of the top passing attacks in the entire country. 8* Over North Texas/Utah State |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 52 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Rice/La Tech (7:00 ET): Well, it's official. With last week's home loss to UTEP, you have to consider Rice to be the worst team in the country. The Owls are 1-9 SU, their one win coming by three points (in the season opener) against FCS Prairie View A&M. Since then, they've lost every game by at least 14 points w/ one exception. Last week's loss to UTEP. But they trailed the Miners 34-3 early in the second half before storming back w/ a furious rally. Keep in mind that UTEP is a team that had lost its previous 20 games. So now it's Rice w/ the longest active losing streak in the country. It's not likely to end in the next two weeks either, which will be spent in the state of Louisiana. There's a game at LSU, but not before this one in Ruston. La Tech doesn't exactly come into this week in fine form. They were blown out last week at Mississippi State, 45-3. Though they likely didn't expect to win (were 23-point underdogs), that result still had to be disappointing nonetheless. It was their third loss of the season, though the C-USA West Division is still technically in play. It doesn't help that the Bulldogs lost to UAB earlier in the year, another game where they were held to single digits. But they'll certainly have to win out, a possibility, but they also need two losses from UAB down the stretch as well. It can't be overstated how last week was clearly La Tech's worst game of the season. It was their lowest scoring game in a decade. The defense allowed Miss State to score on every 1st half offensive possession. The good news is they're facing a much weaker opponent this week. Even as bad as Rice is, this spread is high enough that I'm going to abstain from making a play on the side. But the total really intrigues me. Rice only averages 19.6 PPG to begin with, but what's really interesting is that they are top 15 in the country in time of possession. Yet they are 123rd in scoring. Their defense is bad, giving up 38.5 PPG. But can La Tech take full advantage? The Bulldogs are averaging only 25.2 PPG and are remarkably inefficient themselves given they are also top 50 in the country in terms of TOP. I assume La Tech will play this one fairly conservatively given they head out on the road again next week (at Southern Miss). 10* Under Rice/La Tech |
|||||||
10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55.5 | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Troy/South Alabama (8:00 ET): Troy is clearly the better team here, but two things give me pause. One is the performance in their last game. Playing for the 1st time w/o QB Kaleb Barker (out for the year), they lost outright to Liberty and scored only 16 points in doing so. The second is their overall play on the road. While this team did cash for me in an early season upset at Nebraska, they pulled that upset on the back of a key special teams play and Cornhuskers' turnovers. The Trojans' offense, with Barker in at QB, gained only 243 total yards in that contest. The only two subsequent road games were LW's upset loss at Liberty and an eight-point win at LA Monroe. So asking Troy to win by double digits on the road, with a backup QB, seems like a lot. South Alabama has only two wins on the season. One came against Texas State, one of the worst teams in all of FBS. The other came last week against a FCS school, Alabama State. That win over Alabama State also marked the first time all season that a South Alabama game stayed Under the total. Playing a FCS program obviously helped as the Jaguars turned in - by far - their best defensive performance of the season, holding their opponent to just 7 points. This is a defense that has already allowed 48 or more points FOUR times this season. But there's a catch. All four times were on the road. The defense has played a little better here in Mobile, holding teams to an average of just 22.7 PPG. That's heavily influenced by last week's result, but the Jaguars get a big break this week in facing a backup QB. Last year's "Battle for the Belt" (that's what this rivalry is called) resulted in a huge upset w/ South Alabama winning 19-8 as 16-pt road underdogs. Even I, who had South Alabama, was quite stunned by that result. Keep in mind that the Jaguars were facing a 4-year starting QB in Brandon Silvers and they still held the Troy offense to less than 300 total yards. Now they get to face a backup in Sawyer Smith, who threw for only 135 total yds in the upset loss at Liberty two weeks ago. After the 1st quarter of that game, the Trojans' offense was held to just three field goals and less than 200 total yards. South Alabama's first six games may have all gone Over, but this one has "Under" written all over it. 10* Under Troy/South Alabama |
|||||||
09-29-18 | BYU v. Washington OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -113 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/Washington (8:30 ET): Both of these teams are 4-0 Under on the season. As a result, we have a lower than expected total. Now, has the Washington offense performed up to expectations thus far? Certainly not. This is a team that has averaged 36.2 and 41.8 points per game the last two seasons and brought eight starters back, including senior QB Jake Browning. I think it's only a matter of time before the Huskies start to hit their stride though. This is actually a top 25 battle now w/ BYU having "snuck" into the rankings on the strength of their stunning upset in Madison. While neither defense has given up more than 23 points in any game this season, I think at least one will get there Saturday (most likely Washington) and I'm on the Over. BYU went 4-9 last season. That's pretty atypical in Provo, so a bounce back season was all but assured. I took the Cougars in the opener when they went to Arizona and won outright, as double digit dogs, 28-23. They followed that up w/ a narrow home loss to Cal. Then came the game that caught everyone off-guard, the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin in Madison. I seriously doubt that the Cougars are going to be able to pull a second upset of a Top 10 team on the road, in less than three weeks. As stingy as the defense has looked, they basically gave up 400 total yards to both Cal and Wisconsin. Despite its rather meager PPG average (27.2), Washington has still averaged 432 YPG this season at 6.4 yards per play. They will be able to move the ball on this BYU defense. Something to keep in mind w/ this total is that two of each team's four games would have gone Over it. Now Washington has allowed only 30 pts in three games since losing the opener to Auburn. But this is the toughest opponent they've played since the Tigers. It was a 14-10 game after one quarter LW vs. Arizona State. The Huskies also gave up 164 yards rushing, which is notable because of the offensive scheme BYU is going with this season. The Cougars have three different players averaging at least five yards per carry as they've gotten quite creative w/ their run schemes. They ran for almost 200 yards on Wisconsin despite just 28 carries. I say both offenses move the ball better than expected and as result we have more scoring than expected. The Over is 9-4-1 when UW is off an ATS loss and they did not cover LW vs ASU as they were 18-pt favorites. 8* Over BYU/Washington |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 53 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE |
|||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 149 h 59 m | Show |
8* Over Alabama/Georgia (8:45 ET): When you have the two top defenses in the country (in terms of efficiency) and two of the top four in points allowed per game (Bama #1, UGA #4), then Under is the natural inclination when it comes to betting the total. Alabama's Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was a real "defensive affair" w/ the Crimson Tide posting season lows in both total yards and yards per play. One-third of their plays went for zero or negative yards. Over the eight quarters, the Tide have scored just four touchdowns on 23 drives. Facing a pretty comparable defense in Monday night's Championship Game, another "ugly" affair has to be on tap, right? After all, Bama's defense was dominant as ever against Clemson, holding them to just 6 points and 188 total yards. Not so fast, my friend! Georgia's thrilling Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma (best Rose Bowl ever?) was no "defensive affair" as the 'Dawgs prevailed 54-48 in double OT w/ the two offenses combining for 1,058 yards. Now that was against an Oklahoma offense that is far more prolific than any other in the CFP and quite possibly the entire country. Alabama is a MUCH different opponent than the Sooners w/ defense being their strong side. But Bama still comes in averaging 37.9 points per game. The Georgia offense averages 36.3 PPG. With all the attention being paid to the two defenses, might we be underrating the offenses? This will be the second lowest O/U line for any Alabama game this season. The only lower one (43.0) was vs. Vanderbilt and saw the Tide blow by the total themselves in a 59-0 win. Now, pretty clearly, that kind of lopsided result will NOT be repeated here. But whatever decline in scoring there is from Bama's perspective can be offset by the Georgia offense being significantly better than Vandy's. Away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide allows 17.3 PPG, more than double what they allow at home. Georgia had only two games w/ an O/U line lower than this one (vs Vandy and Florida) and both went Over. Ironically, UGA scored 42 and 45 pts in those two games. Again, I don't think for a second either offense will score 40+, but they can both score 20+ and don't discount the possibility of a defensive or special teams TD here. 8* Over Alabama/Georgia |
|||||||
01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
8* Over Notre Dame/LSU (1:00 ET): This is one of the better non-CFP bowl games and a rematch of the 2016 Music City Bowl, won by the Fighting Irish, 31-28 as 8-pt underdogs. But that particular bowl game was played in December. Why is that significant? Well, ND has gone a horrific 0 for its last 9 (straight up) in January bowls! Prior to the start of the season, I had the Irish as one of the most improved teams in the country and they did not disappoint, racing out to an 8-1 SU start before dropping two of its last three (@ Miami and Stanford). LSU is on an opposite trajectory as they opened 3-2 SU (including home loss to Troy!), but then they closed on a 6-1 SU (only loss to Alabama) run, covering all seven games. I've got no great read on the side here (though I give a slight lean to Notre Dame), however, the total is something I'm very interesting in. Both offenses like to run the football, but will be going up against staunch run defenses. That sounds like an Under ... but I still trust this Irish offensive line (best in the country?). Before the Miami game, Notre Dame averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per rush. I expect them to rediscover that type of ground attack here as LSU will be minus its top three linebackers! I realize QB Brandon Wimbush completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in the regular season and will be w/o two receivers and tight ends on New Year's Day (combo of suspensions and injuries). But I think the run game can carry the offense, like it did in the reg season when it averaged a healthy 35.3 points per game. LSU's offense averaged 412.9 yards per game, which is probably more than you thought. It's not quite as lofty as Notre Dame's 454.9 YPG, but they averaged roughly the same number of yards per play (6.3 vs. 6.4). QB Etling completed nearly 60 percent of his pass attempts and it's looking like RB Darius Guice will be a go. In each of their last three games, the Tigers ran for 200+ yards and the Irish defense actually gave up 237 or more on the ground in three of the last four. They also allowed 37 or more points three times in that same stretch. The LSU offense got much better as the season went along, scoring 30+ in each of the final three games, peaking w/ a season-best 45 pts against A&M in the finale. 8* Over Notre Dame/LSU |
|||||||
12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over USC/Ohio State (8:00 ET): I'd say that outside the CFP itself, this is the most anticipated bowl game. Initially, my lean is to Ohio State as the irony of the debate between them and Alabama for the 4th (and final) spot in the playoff is that I think they're - on paper - the best two teams in the country. Not making the CFP should lead to HC Urban Meyer having his Buckeyes VERY motivated on Friday night. But ... USC is not chopped liver. The Trojans were not a healthy team when they suffered their two losses during the regular season (at Wazzu and Notre Dame). If Iowa can put up 55 pts on this Buckeyes' defense, then QB Sam Darnold and company should certainly "do some damage" as well. I look for a very high-scoring (and entertaining) Cotton Bowl. Take the Over. Ohio State's offense averaged more PPG - significantly - than did USC's. While QB J.T. Barrett is often maligned by the faithful in Columbus, he directed a group that averaged an impressive 42.5 PPG in the regular season. USC's defense is not very good at stopping the run (allowed 158 YPG) and OSU is averaging 250 YPG over land. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 523.6 yards per game total at 7.0 yards per play. I see them moving the ball, almost at will, in this game. The fact that USC could be down two starters on the defensive side of the ball - LB Porter Gustin and CB Jack Jones - does not bode well here. Barrett ran for 732 yards this season, a nice compliment to sensational RB J.K. Dobbins, who went for 1,364 as a freshman. Of course, USC has a "pretty nice" QB/RB combo of their own in Darnold and Ronald Jones II. In fact, that's not only a better duo than Barrett/Dobbins, it just might be the best QB/RB combo in the entire country! USC averages 34.5 points and 490 yards per game. Other than the disaster against Notre Dame, there wasn't a single game where this Trojans offense was held under 27 pts. They did need OT to get to that benchmark vs. Texas, but the Longhorns also happen to have one of the top defenses in the country. The best performances from Ohio State's defense were all reserved for the non-bowl teams, as they gave up 38 to Penn State and 55 to Iowa. 8* Over USC/Ohio State |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU UNDER 49 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
8* TCU/Stanford Under (9:00 ET): The bowl matchups are starting to get more "attractive" on Thursday w/ three of the four pitting ranked teams against one another. This is one of them. I liked both TCU and Stanford coming into this season as the former got the "honor" of being labeled "my most improved team in the country" and the win total I had on them (Over 7.5) cashed easily. So you may be surprised to see that I'm NOT on the Horned Frogs here. That's because I also have a ton of respect for Stanford, especially w/ RB Bryce Love suiting up. This should be a very good game, between two well-coached teams, and that should lend itself to an Under play in my opinion. Both teams allow fewer than 21.5 PPG w/ TCU allowing only 17.6. The Under was 9-3 for TCU in the regular season, not surprising, given the defensive prowess. Like Stanford, the Horned Frogs (#11) are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency (Stanford is #15). Over the final two months, only one offense - that being Oklahoma's (so no shame there!) was able to top 24 pts against these Horned Frogs. And in the reg season matchup w/ the Sooners, they shut them out in the 2nd half (in Norman!). Iowa State was the only team besides OU to beat the Frogs and that was a 14-7 final. Getting back to the defense, it ranks top five nationally in yards per attempt (rushing), which seems like a good thing when getting set to face Love. That number per attempt was just 2.9! It's not just the run that this stop unit is great against, however. They also allow just a 52% completion rate, which is pretty impressive playing in the Big 12. For the season, they held opponents to 122 YPG below season averages. The TCU offense scored more than 27 pts only two times in the last eight games and those came against Baylor and Kansas, who went a combined 1-17 SU in conference play (2-22 overall!) w/ the one win being Baylor beating Kansas. As you know, they don't play a lot of defense in the Big 12, so the Stanford defense (which faces some strong passing attacks in the Pac 12) will be a tall order. The Cardinal were also their conference runner-up and like TCU losing to Oklahoma twice, they lost to USC twice. We have two inconsistent QB's at the helm here. 8* TCU/Stanford Under |
|||||||
12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona UNDER 66 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Purdue/Arizona (8:30 ET): The Foster Farms Bowl features two teams that should be "happy to be here," simply based on the notion neither was in a bowl at the end of last season. Purdue was due for better luck in 2017 based on the fact they were tied for the worst turnover differential in the country last season (-17). They won their final reg season game, over rival Indiana, to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Arizona dropped its final two reg season games to finish 7-5 SU. Again, Rich Rod's team improving in '17 did not surprise me given most key metrics were pointing up after dipping down to 3-9 SU last season. Given the disparate styles of play here, something will have to give w/ the total and I see an Under. Purdue's defense - by the numbers - is very good. They allow only 19.3 PPG and that number actually drops outside of West Lafayette. That's key when facing an Arizona offense that comes in averaging 41.8 PPG, led by QB Khalil Tate. Over the L8 games, the Boilermakers didn't allow more than 25 pts to any opponent. (Granted, the schedule was not tough). But Michigan and Louisville were the only teams to score more than 25 against them all season. The problem here though is the offense averages only 24.2 PPG. 1st year HC Jeff Brohm will eventually have an impact on this group, but it wasn't this year nor will it be this game. In half their games, the Boilers scored 24 pts or less. Arizona is all offense and no defense, so it's just the reverse of Purdue. Playing in the Pac 12, the Wildcats didn't exactly face the kind of stout defense they'll see here. The good news though is that the defense will get a reprieve facing the Purdue offense. This O/U line clearly skews more to Arizona's style of play and I believe that's a mistake given Purdue had gone Under in six straight and 9 of 11 (w/ consistently lower totals) prior to the reg season finale vs. Indiana. 8* Under Purdue/Arizona |
|||||||
12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke OVER 47 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over N Illinois/Duke (5:15 ET): This year's edition of the Quick Lane Bowl pits Northern Illinois against Duke. The former is used to playing here at Ford Field due to their plethora of MAC Title Game appearances. They didn't win their division this season, but still finished a solid 6-2 in conf play (8-4 SU overall) w/ the two losses coming to Toledo and C Michigan (meaningless reg season finale). Duke, meanwhile, needed to win its two final reg season games just to get here. It was a very "up and down" season in Durham w/ the Blue Devils having opened 4-0 SU (including a very impressive non-conf win over N'western), then losing six straight, followed by the B2B wins. I've got no read on the side, so to the total we go! Duke at long last snapped its drought of no bowl victories (dated back to 1961!) two years ago w/ a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Indiana. They failed to make a bowl game LY as they dropped to 4-8 SU. But, as mentioned above, they equaled that win total through just four games this season. Clearly, the most impressive win was 41-17 over N'western. But the good times would not last as the offense never broke 21 points during the six-game losing streak. However, note four of those six losses came by a TD or less. Interestingly, in all six wins, the Blue Devils scored 27 or more. We'll need to see more of the Daniel Jones (QB) that started the year w/ a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and threw for 226 YPG, than the one we saw in the middle portion of the season. In the final two reg season games, Duke gained 943 total yds. Northern Illinois certainly has a formidable defense. The Huskies led the COUNTRY in tackles for loss (8.8 per game!) and were #2 in sacks. Yet, they still gave up 31 pts in each of the final two reg season games and enter the Bowl on a three-game Over streak. There seems to be a prevailing wisdom that this will be a lower-scoring affair and as a result, oddsmakers posted a low O/U line. By kickoff, this may be the lowest O/U line of the season for NIU, save for a game against a Kent State team that may have had the worst offense in the country this season. The Huskies' offense really came on in the 2H of the season, scoring 30 or more in five of the last six games. They wound up averaging over 30 PPG. Duke went Under in all but three reg season games, but there's a good chance this ends up as their lowest O/U line of the season to date as well. 10* Over N Illinois/Duke |
|||||||
12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming (4:00 ET): These programs enter the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on very different trajectories. Central Michigan won and covered its final five regular season games while Wyoming dropped its last two games, one of them to an awful San Jose State team. The big story here centers around Cowboys QB Josh Allen, a likely 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft (overrated prospect, in my opinion). Whether or not Allen actually plays is irrelevant to me as I see a Wyoming offense that is very bad with or without him (atrocious w/o him!), yet the defense is what could make this a win for the Mountain West contingent. CMU rang up some big point totals on bad defenses down the stretch in the regular season. Take the Under. Now, to be fair to Allen, he lost a lot of his supporting cast to the NFL this season. Four starters from LY's offense are now playing on Sunday's and approximately 80 percent of LY's rushing and receiving production was lost as well. Thus, even w/ Allen playing most of the way, we have an offense here that didn't even average 300 YPG in the regular season. Allen was absent from the team's final two games and the Cowboys scored a TOTAL of 20 pts in losses to Fresno State and San Jose State. Personally, I don't know why Allen would play here given the shoulder issues and the impending payday he is going to receive. Regardless, Wyoming has gone Under in six straight games and 10 of 12 this year. That's also owed to a defense which allows just 17.8 PPG. One edge Wyoming does have over CMU here is they are used to playing in altitude and this game takes place on their side of the country. So, look for the Chippewas' offense to be drastically less productive here than it was down the stretch in the regular season. Also, note that before going Over in those final five games, the Chips had gone Under in five straight. After giving up 55 pts in LY's Bowl loss (to Tulsa), I suspect the CMU defense is going to play with a "chip" on its shoulder (pun intended!). "Anytime you let up that many points you're going to come off (angry)," defensive tackle Chris Kantzavelos told CMUChippewas.com. Both of these defense finished Top 12 nationally in interceptions. Neither offense is very good at running the ball (Wyoming is 119th nationally), so it may prove difficult to move the chains. 10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming |
|||||||
12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International OVER 56 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Temple/Florida International (8:00 ET): Initially, Temple looked like "fade material" in this spot. FIU is the program making its return to a bowl for the first time since 2011 while this is Temple's third straight venture into the College postseason. The Owls were also outscored in the regular season and this game is being played in the state of Florida (it is the St. Petersburg Bowl after all). But FIU was also outscored in the reg season and you have the factor that Temple was upset in each of its previous two bowl appearances. So, the soon to be departing seniors should probably be pretty motivated here. Therefore, we're going to turn to the total in this bowl game, a number that has been on the rise since it opened. The O/U line has risen, probably, in part due to the fact that both of these teams ended their respective regular seasons on Over streaks. Temple has gone Over in five straight (after going Under in their previous six games). FIU has gone Over in four straight and went 8-4 Over in the reg season. In five of its last seven season, including the previous three (all under current Baylor HC Matt Rhule), Temple allowed 20.1 points per game or fewer. This year, that number jumped to 27.7 PPG. They were sure to save their worst defensive efforts for their games against bowl opposition, allowing 45, 26, 31, 20, 43 and 49 pts. That's an average of exactly 29 PPG allowed. Offensively though, the Owls have been able to "pick up the slack." In their last three victories, they've averaged 37.3 PPG. Not to be outdone, FIU scored 104 pts in its final two reg season games. Their finale was a 63-45 shootout vs. UMass. That was a record-setting win, not just in terms of wins in a single season (8) for the program, but also for total yardage in a game (674). They rolled up 379 yards on the ground w/ SIX touchdowns and were 7 for 7 overall in the red zone, scoring more points than any other game in program history. Defensively though, there are issues. They allow more PPG than Temple and have given up at least 37 pts in three of the previous four games. In half of their games this year, they allowed at least 30 points. 8* Over Temple/Florida International |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State UNDER 62.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -108 | 224 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State (8:00 ET): This is our third and final matchup between Conference USA and the Sun Belt on Saturday and wouldn't you know I've got you covered w/ plays on all three! Middle Tennessee was a bit of a disappointment this year, which can be tied to key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, notably ones to QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. They really struggled to score w/o that "dynamic duo," though Stockstill is now back and the offense averaged 36 PPG in the L4 games. (James remains out). But be aware that the return of Stockstill (coach's son) also coincided w/ the easy portion of the Blue Raiders' schedule. Three of the teams they faced during that stretch were: Old Dominion, Charlotte and UTEP, all of whom are among the very worst teams in the country. So I'm not expecting MTSU's offense to have a "banner day" here in the Camellia Bowl. Take the Under. Arkansas State blew its chance to finish w/ at least a share of the Sun Belt reg season crown when they lost to Troy in the final game. It was a brutal loss, one that saw them fall victim to multiple non-offensive scores by the Trojans, not to mention ASU had a MASSIVE edge in total yards (606-293!). The Red Wolves gave up the lead w/ only 17 seconds remaining (lost 32-25) after taking it w/ two TDs of their own in the final three minutes. It will be interesting to see how ASU performs here off such a brutal defeat. Will they be motivated or will there be a hangover? There is a chance MTSU comes in as the more motivated side here being that they are looking to snap a four-game bowl losing streak and are playing less than 300 miles from campus (game is in Birmingham, AL). These are old SBC foes and the last time they played was five years ago w/ ASU winning 45-0 in the swan song for now Auburn HC Gus Mahlzan. There's been an incredible amt of turnover at the head coaching position here in Jonesboro (4 in 6 years!), but now in his fourth year here, Blake Anderson is a good man for the job as he has the most wins (31) ever in program history for the first four years of a tenure (of course, he could be gone soon too!). Anderson has a top-notch QB to lean on in Justice Hansen, who threw a SBC record 34 TD passes this season. But like Middle Tennessee, be aware of the numbers ASU put up in games vs. non-bowl teams. The Red Wolves' five highest scoring efforts of this season (all 37+ pts) all came against atrocious opponents, such as LA Monroe, Lafayette, Ark Pine-Bluff, Coastal Carolina and GA Southern. Their one win over a bowl opponent came against New Mexico State! Both defenses here allow fewer than 25 PPG and I look for this to be a much lower scoring game than anticipated. 8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State |
|||||||
12-09-17 | Army v. Navy UNDER 46 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 114 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Army/Navy (3:00 ET): Games between the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have a history of staying Under the total (29-8-1 since '05!), which really shouldn't be a surprise given the style of offense these teams run. The run-heavy approach leads to the clock running far more often than not and these games are usually low possession affairs. Furthermore, the fact that the defenses face this type of offense in practice makes preparation far easier. So, I wasn't shocked to see the O/U line for this year's Army-Navy tilt bet down as soon as it opened. But this is a case where oddsmakers can't make the number low enough. None of the last five matchups have seen more than 41 total pts scored. Take the Under. We all remember what happened LY as Army ended its historic 14-game losing streak in the rivalry w/ a 21-17 win as four-point underdogs. Putting aside the history for a moment, I still can't believe Army was getting points in that spot as it was a HORRIBLE situation for Navy, coming off a loss in the AAC Champ Game the Saturday prior. Army had its best team ever under Jeff Monken LY and was off a double bye. Once again this year Army is off a double bye (last played on Nov 18th!) and they now have a chance to exceed LY's win total as they come in at 8-3 SU. Navy is just 6-5 SU, off B2B losses to Notre Dame and Houston. In both games, the Midshipmen failed to top 17 points. Army's scoring average is way up this year (31.2 PPG), a high in the Monken-era. But that's a little skewed due to games against lesser competition such as FCS Fordham and Rice. In five of their 11 games, they've scored 21 pts or less, including the Air Force game, which they won in shutout fashion (21-0!). Their last game (52-49 loss to North Texas) was a wild one, but that type of game has zero chance of being repeated here. Navy has seen the Under go 5-1 this season outside of Annapolis. Their game vs. Air Force was a wild one (48-45), but the AFA also threw for a stunning 257 yds that day. Army has attempted a grand total of four passes in its last three games. For some reason, both teams chose to pass a lot against Temple, but other than that there's no instance of Army throwing for more than 80 yds in a game this year. Four games, they haven't had a single passing yard! 10* Under Army/Navy |
|||||||
12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC UNDER 59 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Stanford/USC (8:00 ET): From a pure power rankings perspective, there does appear to be some value here on Stanford, as most rankings I follow actually have them as the better team on a neutral field. Then there's the fact that the North Division Champ has OWNED the Pac 12 Title Game, winning all six instances. But, at the same time, there's "no running from" what the Trojans did to the Cardinal back in September when they won 42-24 at the Coliseum (as a 3.5-pt favorite). Furthermore, there is no denying - that situationally - this spot favors USC. After playing 12 straight reg season games w/o a bye, the Trojans are off one here and that's a big advantage. So even though I was on Stanford LW (big win over Notre Dame), I'm refraining from making a play on the side. Let's look at the total instead. USC had over 600 yds total offense (623 to be exact) in the earlier win over Stanford. That's an almost unheard of number against a David Shaw defense. It's not the only time USC has gone over 600 yds this season (did it to Arizona) nor is it the lone time going over 40 points (did it four times total). But here would probably be an appropriate time to bring up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Earlier I spoke of the bye being USC's "friend" in this spot. But what if they start slow? Also, there is the fact that QB Sam Darnold, good as he is, turns the ball over more than you'd like to see. He already has three more interceptions than he did all of last year. Plus, his overall completion percentage is slightly down. I think Stanford's defense is going to play a lot better in this rematch and won't be surprised to see Southern Cal fail to finish off some drives, which is always key in betting an Under. Bryce Love did play for Stanford last week and that was huge as the Cardinal upset Notre Dame 38-20 in Palo Alto. That was their highest scoring game in more than a month. Three of the previous four games saw the Cardinal offense fail to top 21 pts. It should also be noted the Stanford was outgained by ND (415-328), only to win the turnover battle, 3-0. QB KJ Costello threw a career-high 4 TD passes, something I seriously doubt we'll see again here. Stanford's final 2 TD drives both started inside the ND 30-yd line. Defensively, both touchdowns allowed were long pass plays, which is uncharacteristic for this defense. Love is of course still battling an ankle injury, which is likely to limit his effectiveness Friday night. I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game here compared to the first meeting. 10* Under Stanford/USC |
|||||||
11-25-17 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma OVER 67.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 91 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma (3:45 ET): With one team (WVU) w/o its starting QB (lost to injury) and the other (Oklahoma) w/o its (likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield) for an undisclosed amt of time due to his sideline behavior LW, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to call for an Under. But I've always fashioned myself as a "contrarian" of sorts and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see more points scored than expected. Stripped of his captaincy, Mayfield could miss as little as a series. Kyler Murray will start the game and has experience playing two years ago while at Texas A&M. This Sooners' offense leads the nation w/ 588.7 yards per game and is #5 in scoring at 44.0 points per game. They've gone over 40 four of the last five weeks, the exception seeing them score "only" 38 against a very good TCU defense. West Virginia is in a bit of a dicier situation w/ QB Will Grier lost for the year. They scored only 14 pts last week in an upset loss to Texas in Morgantown and that was w/ Grier playing a quarter. They gained a season-low 295 total yards. But that Texas' defense is a lot more stout than Oklahoma's. In Grier's absence, in steps Chris Chugunov. He threw for 189 yards in relief of Grier last week and I expect a MUCH better showing here now that he's not being thrust into playing w/o preparation. A full week of practice can go a long way. Even after last week's 41-3 thumping of putrid Kansas, OU is still allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. It appears as if I'm not the only "contrarian" when it comes to playing this total as despite a majority of tickets being written on the Under, the O/U line has gone up during the course of the week. That's usually a good sign. I think we can look for the Sooners to score plenty here as Mayfield should get into the game sooner rather than later. They have three receivers w/ 649+ yards and two running backs that will have 600+ yards rushing. With West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen largely runs a "plug and play" system, meaning any QB he's recruited should pan out. This is an offense that has averaged 544 YPG on the road this season. Last year, the game was 56-28 (in Oklahoma's favor). The year before, here in Norman, it was 44-24 (again in OU's favor). In fact, four of the previous five meetings have seen at least 68 total pts scored. 8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma |
|||||||
11-24-17 | Baylor v. TCU OVER 51 | Top | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Baylor/TCU (12:00 ET): These two Texas rivals are in VERY different places right now. Baylor HC Matt Rhule inherited a complete mess, left over from the Art Briles' regime. A Bears team that won 10+ games four times from 2011-2015 dropped to 7-6 SU last year, a direct result of Briles' misdeeds. We knew it would be "tough sledding" for Rhule in year one, but I don't think that anyone Waco foresaw a 1-10 record w/ ZERO Big 12 victories. Yet that's the reality entering this, their season finale. Meanwhile, coming off their own down year (6-7 SU in '16), TCU was on my shortlist for Most Improved Teams in the country (they were my top win total pick at Over 7.5) and sure enough, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have delivered w/ a 9-2 SU record. A win Friday and they would earn a rematch w/ Oklahoma in the Big X11 Championship Game (back this year!) next week. Given what's at stake for TCU and the state of Baylor, the pointspread is predictably high here. It actually may not even be high enough as according to my own power rankings, there are at least couple points of value w/ the Horned Frogs here. But even though I cashed Oklahoma last week minus a huge number, I typically don't like laying this many points and won't in this situation. If there's one commonality these teams share (besides both hailing from Texas), it's that they've been going Under a lot in Big XII play. TCU, thanks to not allowing a single second half TD in the last five games, has gone Under in seven straight games. Baylor is riding a four-game Under streak. That confluence has created a situation here where the O/U line is probably a lot lower than it ought to be and thus Over is going to be my play Friday as TCU should have no problems scoring here and could possibly go Over the total by themselves. Playing w/o QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson (out for year), the Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 27-3 last week in Lubbock. Despite the lopsided victory, they were actually outgained as they threw for only 85 yards. Of course, when you allow only three points, you don't need to pass much. The offense did run for 200+ yards, which is impressive. Here in Ft. Worth, TCU averages 43.4 PPG for the season, so like I said earlier, they are more than capable of sending this game Over, almost by themselves. HC Patterson has said that Hill is probable to play. Teams are relishing the opportuniity to beat up downtrodden Baylor right now and last year saw the Horned Frogs hang 62 on them in Waco. The Baylor defense is allowing over 450 YPG for the season. As for getting "any help" from the Baylor offense, I suspect that when the game inevitably gets out of reach late, there will be opportunities for them to score. They do come in averaging 24.5 points per game. 10* Over Baylor/TCU |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Kentucky v. Georgia UNDER 51 | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Kentucky/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for UGA to be laying this many points as they come in off a humiliating loss LW to Auburn, 40-10, as a defense which ranked among the best in the country was torched for almost 500 total yards. That loss sent the Bulldogs tumbling down from their #1 ranking in the CFP to #7. Now they find themselves in the unenviable spot of "biding their time" between now and the SEC Champ Game (will play either Alabama or Auburn) while hoping just to skirt by the next two opponents. Normally, I would consider a play plus the points here, but I don't have that much respect for a Kentucky squad that is nowhere near as good as its 7-3 SU record might indicate. Therefore, to the total we go and I'm thinking Under. The SEC is having itself a down year. There are five Top 25 teams in the league, four of them in the West. Kentucky has been one of the real beneficiaries of the "down year" as they've avoided virtually all of the big names from the West (save for Miss St, who clobbered them 45-7). Strangely, despite the better than expected straight up record, the 'Cats are only 3-7 at the betting window. They did cover LW in an impressive 44-21 win over Vanderbilt (as 2.5-pt road dogs), but as we saw in the trip to Starkville, I'd expect a pretty substantial decline in offensive production here. Mississippi State held them to only 260 total yds in that game and let's also note UK was held to only 228 total yds by Eastern Michigan and 254 total yards by Southern Miss. Georgia's defense should be supremely motivated after what happened last week. Despite the shellacking LW, the Bulldogs still do rank #2 in the land in def efficiency, which should tell you how well they'd performed prior to the one loss. In fact, it was just the second time all season that they'd allowed more than 19 pts in a game! They are giving up averages of only 14.5 points and 277 yards per game for the season. So a Kentucky offense which has played on a natural surface only twice all year and averaged just 15.0 PPG in those contests, should be held in relative check here. The only thing holding UGA back is the offense, which can run the ball effectively, but is still being led by a relatively inexperienced signal-caller. The gameplan was very conservative last week and it cost them. Kirby Smart knows he can get away w/ being conservative again this week though. QB Jacob Fromm completed less than 50% of his passes LW and for just 184 total yards. 8* Under Kentucky/Georgia |
|||||||
11-16-17 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 66.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Tulsa/South Florida (7:30 ET): It's been a rather steep decline for Tulsa this season, but that was largely to be expected. Last year, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 SU including a 55-10 bowl win over Central Michigan. But that team also boasted a 3,348 yard passer, a 1629 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers. All of those players departed and as a result, they come into this game already w/ no shot at bowl eligibility as they're just 2-8 straight up (0-4 in games decided by six points or less). Yet, they still actually average a healthy 31.0 PPG. The problem has actually resided on the defensive side of the ball where they're giving up 38.0 PPG. That's going to be an issue facing South Florida, but w/ a big pointsread, the better move is to the Over. USF came into 2017 w/ a new head coach (Charlie Strong) and visions of grabbing that coveted "Group of 5" spot in a "New Year's Six" Bowl. They still have a shot at doing so, but a home loss to Houston several weeks back really put a damper on those aspirations. Still, the Bulls do control their own destiny as they'll play at undefeated UCF next Friday. Win their final two regular season games + the AAC Title Game and it will likely be USF that is in a major bowl game. Willie Taggart certainly did not leave an empty cupboard for Strong as the offense is averaging 39.1 PPG (actually slightly down from LY) while the defense gives up just 19.9 PPG, which is way down from last year. These schools have met only one time (2014) and in that game, USF pulled off the greatest comeback in its history, rallying back from a 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30. I expect similar fireworks Thursday night in Tampa. Save for the one loss to Houston, this USF offense has been remarkably consistent w/ 31 or more points scored in every game. I don't anticipate Quentin Flowers and company to have much trouble moving the ball on this woeful Tulsa defense, which is giving up 46.6 points and nearly 600 yards per game on the road. For the year, USF is averaging just over 500 YPG and they topped 600 in the last game w/ QB Flowers setting a career best w/ 385 yards passing. It's all a question if Tulsa can put enough points on the board as well and I think they can. They have the 15th best rush offense in the country (248.7). Unfortunately, USF is 7th (277 YPG) in that same department. The USF offense should be able to move the ball at will here while Tulsa will move it enough times to get the game Over the total. 10* Over Tulsa/South Florida |
|||||||
11-11-17 | West Virginia v. Kansas State UNDER 63 | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State (3:30 ET): The Big XII currently has no teams in the top four in the playoff rankings, but the winner of Saturday night's game between TCU and Oklahoma (who are tied for first place in the conference) will almost certainly be ranked no lower than fifth come next Tuesday. Behind those two are a number of teams jockeying for position, including the two here, who have become almost afterthoughts. West Virginia is 6-3 w/ two of its losses coming by a touchdown. They average 40.2 PPG, but it was the defense that ruled the day in LW's 20-16 win over Iowa State in Morgantown. This week, they face Kansas State in the "Little Apple" (Manhattan), a team that is not known for scoring, but ironically is off a 42-35 win over Texas Tech last week. Oddsmakers have pretty high expectations for the amt of scoring in this game, but the fact is none of the last four meetings have been very high scoring. I'm on the Under. WVU was actually shut out in the 2H last week, something we don't see very often. But it didn't matter as the defense held Iowa State to just 350 total yds, perhaps the Mountaineers' signature defensive effort this year. After facing a string of top-flight offenses (TCU, Tex Tech, OK State, Iowa State), perhaps Kansas State will be a reprieve. Granted, the Wildcats have scored 30 or more in all but two games this year. But the two they didn't, they were held to just single digits. Last week, KSU needed a TD + 2 pt conversion in the final minute to force OT against Texas Tech (trailed 35-27). They also needed a defensive TD (INT return). Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it was led by a third string QB, Skylar Thompson, who will now be Bill Snyder's starter moving forward. Kansas State only ranks 99th nationally in passing yards per game, so with a third-stringer at the helm, I don't expect much from them through the air in this game. That could mean trouble, because LW's defensive performance from WVU included them allowing just 101 yds over land. I do expect Will Grier and the Mountaineers' offense to move the ball here, but won't be surprised if they're held to field goals by a KSU defense that ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in red zone efficiency. As mentioned before, recent meetings between these two have been lower scoring than expected. Last year, it was 17-16 WVU in Morgantown and the most points scored in any of the L4 meetings was 47. 8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois OVER 51.5 | Top | 17-63 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): To say that it's been a long season in Muncie would be putting it quite mildly. Ball State, by most objective measures, is one of the five worst teams in America. They are 2-7 SU and getting outscored by over 21 PPG. One of the wins was against FCS Tennessee Tech back on Sept 16th. Conference play has been horrific. They've been outscored on average 51.2 to 9.2! Four times, they've given up at least 55 points including each of the L3 games. So, what I'm saying, is Northern Illinois should be feeling pretty good about its chances in Thursday night #MACtion. The Huskies had a four-game win streak snapped their last time out (by Toledo), so they were going to be in an ornery mood to begin with. Expect plenty of points from them here. Playing against Ball State will require a hefty price tag the rest of the way, so IMO, the total is the way to go here. Considering how many points per game BSU is allowing on average, the Over seems like an easy call and we may not even need much help from the Cardinals. The last three weeks have not only seen them allow 515 YPG, but 56.7 PPG. That scoring average exceeds the O/U line here, so them scoring may not even be a necessity here. What's truly frightening about the defensive numbers here, at least in the last two games, is that the opponents largely took the "foot off the gas" in the fourth quarter. Toledo had 51 pts through three quarters against them while Eastern Michigan had 49. Northern Illinois' defense was torched in the last game as well, giving up 527 total yds. They only allowed 27 points, for which they should feel fortunate. Toledo had an 89-yard drive which ended w/ a fumble, plus two other long drives that ended w/ field goals. Now, normally the Huskies are pretty stout. Certainly, on paper, this may be the weakest offense they face all year. Three times Ball State hasn't even scored 10 pts in MAC play and their high is 17 pts. But, as already discussed, NIU can carry "most of the load" here. The last five meetings between these MAC West rivals have all been relatively high scoring w/ a minimum of 56 total pts scored. That'll do the trick here as NIU should threaten their season-high in points scored here (48 vs. Bowling Green) and if they do, then this will be an easy Over. 10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois |
|||||||
11-04-17 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 48.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over LSU/Alabama (8:00 ET): Just a few short weeks ago, it appeared as if LSU's streak of 16 straight years being ranked for the Alabama game was in jeopardy. But an upset of Auburn (at home) followed by a win at Ole Miss have them at #19. I'm not so sure they deserve to be ranked that high, but whatever. As for Alabama, the thought of them being unranked is simply unfathomable. The Tide come in ranked for the LSU game for a 12th straight time and they've won the L6, including 10-0 in Baton Rouge last season. The oddsmakers are NOT expecting a very competitive game here in Tuscaloosa this year, installing the Tide as three-touchdown favorites. I want no part of that spread, but do like the total and that's what I'll be playing Saturday night. The big story w/ 'Bama is never that they're ranked, but where they are ranked. The AP and Coaches both had them #1 all year, but the CFP committee slotted them at #2 in their initial rankings, which were released Tuesday. The difference between being #1 or #2 is pretty irrelevant for Nick Saban's team as they still control their own destiny due to a potential meeting w/ #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. To me, Alabama is the best team in the country, even though their schedule has not been particularly challenging. But they're outscoring opponents by an impressive 33.2 PPG margin. Their defense is tied for #1 in yards allowed per game (236), #1 in scoring (9.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. But don't sleep on an offense that is better now than it was w/ Lane Kiffin's playcalling. They average 43.0 PPG and have scored at least 40 pts in all but two games this season. So for this game to go Over, LSU is going to need to do SOMETHING offensively. They have not scored more than 17 pts in any of the L5 meetings w/ Bama and as mentioned earlier, were shutout LY. But, I'll say this. The Alabama defense hasn't exactly faced a slew of great offenses. LSU ranks 16th nationally in offensive efficiency (Alabama is 4th!) and the previous four SEC opponents that the Tide have taken on, rank 83rd (Texas A&M), 86th (Tennessee), 45th (Arkansas) and 42nd (Vandy) in that department. In fact, the best offense the Tide have faced thus far (in terms of efficiency) would be Colorado State at #35! LSU scored 40 their last time out as well, beating Ole Miss by double digits. Note though that game saw the Rebels lose starting QB Shea Patterson for the year. The Tigers have allowed at least 23 points in five of the last six games and the one time they didn't was against inept Florida. So they're going to give up plenty of points here. I already mentioned that Alabama ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. The previous highest ranking for an LSU opponent was Mississippi State at 20th and they put up 37 on Ed Orgeron's defense. 8* Over LSU/Alabama |
|||||||
11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 67 | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
analysis soon 8* Under Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:00 ET): Conference USA has turned somewhat "upside-down" this year. Granted, this isn't all that shocking considering a number of teams (these two among them) profiled as dramatically improving here in '17. But the top three from last year - Western Kentucky, La Tech and Old Dominion - are all struggling (combined 5-8 in conf play). Middle Tennessee is battling key injuries. So that has opened the door for Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic to wrest control of the C-USA East Division at 4-0 SU w/ every win coming by two touchdowns or more. Regular clients of mine will recall me labeling this team as one of the most likely to improve from last year as Kiffin inherited the most experienced roster in the country. Marshall had not lost a C-USA game until last week. In fact, their only loss had been to a ranked NC State team, on the road, and they covered the spread there. Like FAU, the Thundering Herd were very likely to improve coming off a 3-9 season as they'd won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. But then last week happened and they were beaten 41-30 as 15-pt favorites by FIU in Huntington. It was a -3 turnover margin that doomed them there, thus negating a 505-401 edge in total yards. That said, they did trail 28-7 at half and 35-14 entering the 4th quarter before rallying late to make a game of it. There was a defensive score from FIU in the game plus Marshall converted a pair of two-point conversions. So scoring was a bit inflated. I bring that up because now we have the highest O/U line - by far - for any Marshall game this year. The Herd have scored 30+ three straight weeks, but still average just 28.4 PPG for the season. I absolutely expect a motivated Marshall team here. Their defense ranks near the top of the country in scoring, allowing just 17.6 points per game. (That's top 15). They'll need that defense to show up here against a FAU team that has scored 38 or more in every C-USA game so far. Special teams actually keyed the 42-28 win over WKU last week, a game in which the Owls actually trailed 28-20 going into the 4Q. The week prior, they were my *10* Game of the Week and scored on each of their first 11 drives (!) in a 69-31 beatdown w/ a conference record 804 yards! So this offense has been pretty impressive, needless to say. But this will be the best defense they will have faced since Wisconsin. Marshall allowed just 16 pts total in its first three C-USA games and has held four different opponents to 10 pts or less. If FAU isn't forcing TO's here, then they will struggle to score. 8* Under Marshall/Florida Atlantic |
|||||||
10-28-17 | San Diego State v. Hawaii UNDER 56 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii (11:15 ET): How the mighty have fallen in the Mountain West. Two weeks ago, San Diego State was unbeaten w/ a win over Stanford to its credit. That win over the Cardinal can't ever be erased from their resume, but the "0" that once occupied the loss column certainly has, as the Aztecs come in as losers of two straight. First they lost to Boise State, 31-14, in large part to giving up two non-offensive TDs early in the game. Then, clearly still feeling the effects of the hangover, they got boatraced last week by Fresno State, 27-3. I'm not about to lay points on the road w/ this bunch, at least right now, but what I do feel comfortable in projecting is a low-scoring game out on the Island this week, late night vs. Hawaii. Take the Under. Hawaii is coming off a bye. They sure needed it, or at least their backers did, following five consecutive ATS defeats. Four of those were also straight up losses, but they did win the last game, 37-26 over downtrodden San Jose State. All three of the Warriors wins this year have come against either a FCS foe (Western Carolina) or a bottom 20 team in FBS. The other four games, they were held to 23 pts or fewer. I find it unlikely that they'll score even that many here against a San Diego State defense that has been very good for most of this season. The Aztecs are allowing only 21.7 PPG for the year and that number would be even lower if not for the multiple non-offensive TD's scored by Boise State two weeks ago. I'm not sure how to explain what happened LW vs. Fresno State, other than to say the offense surely didn't do its part. With a total of just 17 pts scored the last two weeks, both of those games at home, SDSU is not exactly a prime candidate to lay points with right now, especially on the road. Hawaii does struggle to stop the run, but SDSU's offensive line is not at 100% right now, so they may not be able to take full advantage. The Under has hit in each of San Diego State's last three games, all on totals lower than this one. Last year, Hawaii did not score at all on the Aztecs' defense in an ugly 55-0 loss. It was their fifth straight year getting held to 21 points or fewer by them. 8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii |
|||||||
10-27-17 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 64.5 | Top | 26-56 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Tulane/Memphis (8:00 ET): "It was the best of times/It was the worst of times" wrote Charles Dickens back in 1859. But for 2017 Memphis football, it was not a "Tale of Two Cities," but rather a "Tale of Two Halves" last week in Houston. Trailing 17-0 at halftime, the (now) 24th ranked Tigers exploded after the break, scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives en route to a rather stunning 42-38 road win. That put them in the driver's seat in the AAC West at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in league play. They'll be favored in all remaining regular season affairs and if they take care of business, that means a likely date w/ either UCF or USF in the Conference Championship Game where a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game will almost certainly be on the line. Tulane provides Memphis' opposition this Friday night at the Liberty Bowl and they'll be looking to pick up the pieces following B2B losses for the second time this year. The Green Wave are 3-4 SU overall for 2nd year HC Willie Fritz, who has installed the option offense here. Three of Tulane's four losses came against opponents that have spent time in the Top 25 this year: Navy, Oklahoma and USF, the latter two obviously still residing there. So this will be no "walk in the park" for favored Memphis, despite what the line may say. That said, while last week saw the Green Wave cover, it only after falling behind USF 34-7 in the second half. Scoring the game's final three touchdowns made the final score a lot closer than it ought to have been and that came on the heels of the team's lone "ugly" loss this year, 23-10 at FIU, two weeks ago. This will be Tulane's fourth road game of the season and they have yet to break 21 points in any of the previous ones. In fact, the team's scoring drops nearly in half (15.0 PPG on the road vs. 28.4 PPG overall) and total yardage per game drops down to 264 (compared to 385.3 YPG overall). Memphis doesn't exactly have the most stout defense in the AAC, but they did face Navy less than two weeks ago, which at least familiarizes them w/ the triple option. The Memphis offense has obviously put up some big numbers thus far, but just as they won't be as bad as they were in the 1H vs. Houston last week, they also won't be as efficient as they were in the 2H. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 60 total pts scored. This will also be the highest O/U line for any of those meetings. It's also - pretty easily - the highest O/U line for any Tulane game this season. The Green Wave have not topped 14 pts against the Tigers in any of the last three years. 10* Under Tulane/Memphis |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 49 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee (7:00 ET): Middle Tennessee enters the week as one of five FBS teams to be perfect either Over or Under. The Blue Raiders have yet to go Over the oddsmakers total in a single game this season (though there was a close call two wks ago vs. FIU), joining Houston (plays Thursday), Troy and Akron w/ that unique distinction (LA Monroe is the only team to have gone Over in every game this season). The reason for the Under trend is pretty clear and that's QB Brent Stockstill (son of HC Rick) has been injured most of the year. This was a team that averaged 39.7 points and over 500 yards a year ago, so needless to say, Stockstill's absence has had a profound impact on things down in Murfreesboro. But this week, we get the lowest O/U line to date and I say it's "high time" we get an Over. Marshall is a team I was sure to put on my "Most Improved List" for 2017 (played them successfully in Week 1) and the Thundering Herd has not disappointed w/ their lone loss so far coming to a very good NC State team, on the road. That was Week 2 and they've won four straight (all by double digits) since. The last two weeks, facing Charlotte and Old Dominion (two poor teams), they've allowed only six points total and no touchdowns. Earlier in the year, the defense pitched a shutout against old MAC rival Kent State, so you can see why this total is so low. But at the same time, the Thundering Herd probably haven't faced anything resembling a coherent offense in over a month. MTSU still won't have Stockstill Friday, but they've at least scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even in defeat LW at UAB, they gained nearly 400 total yds. That game LW vs. UAB was on pace to be a high scoring affair at halftime as UAB led 22-20. But from there, the teams would only manage to exchange field goals in the 2H. I really have no way of explaining that dropoff in scoring from the first to second half. As I mentioned earlier, the week prior was the Blue Raiders' highest scoring game of the year as they beat FIU 37-17 (depending on your closing total, you may have that one counted as an Over). That is one of three MTSU games this year that would have gone Over the O/U for this week. In fact, against FAU (lost 38-20) and Syracuse (won 30-23), we had O/U lines of 60 and 72.5 respectively! While Stockstill remains out, the good news is that WR Richie James is back (returned last week). James' absence for three games is also a major reason for the Blue Raiders' offensive decline in 2017. All James has done in his career is lead all active FBS receivers in receptions (239) while placing 2nd in yards (3224)! I'm confident that backup John Uruza will be able to get him the ball. Marshall's offense, led by QB Chase Litton, is averaging 26.5 PPG. Litton has thrown 13 TD passes and RB Davis is averaging 5.0 YPC. Expect this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee |
|||||||
09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU OVER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 55 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/LSU (9:30 ET): This game has been moved from Houston to New Orleans, which is a big edge for LSU, obviously. As for the total, I don't think it makes much of a difference as it will still be a "fast track," played indoors. These were two Under teams in 2016 w/ 10 of LSU's 12 games going that way and 10 of BYU's 13 games doing the same. But those records have created a situation where the O/U line was opened far too low here. BYU opening their season w/ a "ho-hum" 20-6 win over FCS Portland State also played a role. But how much of that was the coaching staff "holding back" remains to be seen. As for LSU, despite the departure of RB Leonard Fournette, their offense should be just fine as they have Derrius Guice to fill the void. I like the Over in this game. I do expect BYU to top last year's scoring average of 29.5 PPG when they went from a spread to a more pro-style approach (huddle before most plays). Last week was clearly not a great "trial run," but again, I have to wonder if they were "holding back" w/ this game on deck. Portland State actually finished w/ one more first down (14-13), which was downright shocking. But the Cougars did outgain the Vikings 365-220 and had several big plays in the passing game. The rushing attack looked good w/ Canada and Kavika combining for 157 yards over land. QB Mangum is just two years removed from setting school records for both passing yards and completions and should be closer to those numbers than last year's here in 2017. LSU's defense will certainly not make it easy on BYU as last year saw the Tigers allow only 15.8 PPG and the fewest number of first downs (16) per game. But this year's group has only five returning starters back and lost more than 50% of its tackles. With the BYU offense already having a game under its belt, it's an advantage for them. But LSU's own offense will be more than up to the challenge. Guice will have a big year running the ball and Danny Etling, now a senior, is back as the starting QB. It's also a veteran offensive line. The Tigers are more than capable of doing most of the necessary scoring themselves in this one and BYU should do just enough to help push this one Over the number. 8* Over BYU/LSU |
|||||||
08-31-17 | TULSA v. OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 70 | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State (7:30 ET): Last year, BOTH of these teams have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Only one returns the majority of it in 2017. That would be Oklahoma State, who for the past seven seasons has averaged 38.6 PPG (LY's average) or more SIX times. With the prolific QB-WR combo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington returning, expectations are through the roof this year in Stillwater w/ the faithful thinking Big XII Championship. However, it is Tulsa that I'm worried about here. The Golden Hurricane averaged 42.5 PPG in a breakout 2016 that saw them win 10 games. They were the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000+ yard passer, two 1,000+ yd rushers and two 1,000 yd receivers. But all but one of those players was lost to graduation. As a result, expect a massive drop off on that side of the ball for the Golden Hurricane here in '17. Tulsa topped 40 pts in all but three games last season and scored at least 31 in all but one. That one time, of course, happened to be their lone visit to a Power 5 school. They lost 48-3 at Ohio State w/ just 188 total yds gained. I'm not saying this OSU will be able to limit them to such a degree, but it is worth noting that the Pokes did allow just 26.5 PPG a year ago (three-year low) against far tougher competition than they'll see here. As of press time, Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery has yet to decided on a starting QB. It will be one of two inexperienced underclassmen - sophomore Chad President or freshman Luke Skipper. Whomever gets the nod (both might play), I expect will struggle mightily. The key to this Under play then would be keeping Oklahoma State's offense in relative check. If the Cowboys were to simply "hit" LY's scoring average, then they'd have to allow 30+ pts for this one to go Over. I cannot see Tulsa scoring 30 points here. So, let's say the Golden Hurricane drops down to somewhere between 21 and 24 pts (seems realistica). It would take roughly 50 from the OSU side to get this one Over. Are the Pokes capable of such an output? Yes, but I don't see it. Consider they didn't score 50 against any FBS opponent last season. They were remarkably consistent, scoring between 38 and 49 pts in eight of their 10 wins. The two exceptions were scoring 31 against TCU (allowed only 6) and 61 (against a FCS program, SE Louisiana). I expect a pretty "average" day offensively from OSU here while Tulsa should slip dramatically compared to last year. Most OSU totals last year were lower than this one. There were three exceptions and two of those stayed Under. 8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State |
|||||||
01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama OVER 50.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
8* Over Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): What I find so fascinating about this year's title game is that both the underdog & under, while typically tied together, are the choices of the public. That's certainly atypical as more often than not, their preferred combo is the favorite & over. By no means am I being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian here. After all, I did cash the Over in LY's title game between these same two teams. In handicapping this year's rematch, much of the discussion concerning the total has talked about how Alabama & Clemson won't be combining to score 85 points again. Well, fortunately, they do not have to. We have a whopping five touchdown margin of error to work with here and thus I'll be going Over again. What both defenses did in their respective dominant CFP semifinal victories is a big reason why many are expecting a low-scoring Championship Game. (Both games went Under). Alabama's defense is definitely the best in the country and held Washington below 200 total yards in a 24-7 win. But the Crimson Tide certainly didn't look like what we've come to expect from a Nick Saban defense LY vs. Clemson. There, they gave up 400+ yards and 31 first downs, barely surviving in a 45-40 win. That was when the Tigers didn't have WR Mike Williams either. Williams' presence should be a major factor in this year's rematch. Also, a point that has been driven home ad nauseam is how Clemson QB DeShaun Watson is precisely the kind of signal-caller that Saban stop units tend to struggle against. Watson and his offense come in averaging 39.5 PPG, for the record. The Clemson defense shut out Ohio State on New Year's Eve, allowing just over 200 total yards. The fact that Alabama has changed offensive coordinators in the week leading up to the biggest game of the year is a major deal. The transition from Lane Kiffin (who called an awful game vs. Washington) to Steve Sarkisian will not be seamless and the Crimson Tide may very well struggle early. But remember; last year's title game was only 14-14 at halftime before both offenses exploded in the 2H. Alabama averages 39.4 PPG, almost an identical number to Clemson. This Tigers' defense did allow 35+ pts twice down the stretch, once to Pitt (their only loss) and to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title Game. Prior to the Washington game, the Over was 8-1 in Alabama neutral field games. 8* Over Clemson/Alabama |
|||||||
12-30-16 | Nebraska v. Tennessee UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Given the respective starts to the season that these teams enjoyed, both were hoping for a far more meaningful final destination than the Music City Bowl. For Tennessee, this essentially amounts to a home game in Nashville (three hour drive). This was supposed to "the year" for the Vols (stop me when you've heard that one before!) and for awhile it was looking like that might be the case. Though living dangerously (had to come from behind in almost every game), Rocky Top did stand at 5-0 straight up going into a date w/ fellow unbeaten Texas A&M at College Station. They lost, in overtime, and that begat a three-game losing streak that essentially sunk their season. Eliminated from SEC East title contention, they would go on to lose their regular season finale, as 7.5-pt favorites, at Vanderbilt 45-34. Nebraska actually made it all the way to 7-0 SU, but experienced a similar second half swoon. Also like Tennessee, the Cornhuskers' first loss of the year came in OT, at Wisconsin. No shame there, but the following week saw them get humiliated by Ohio State (62-3!) and the bloom was certainly off the rose, so to speak. The similarities with their bowl opponent continue as Nebraska lost its regular season finale, 40-10 at Iowa. More similarities? A good number of the 'Huskers wins this season were close games. Coming into the year though, I had anticipated that as this team experienced miserable fortune in such affairs last year (as did Tennessee!). With two similar, possibly disinterested teams, I have no opinion on the side here. So, instead let's look at the total. While the potential lack of interest may have most thinking 'Over', I'm going the other way. Nebraska is an Under team to begin with (9-3 this year) and this is a high total for them. Interestingly, two of their Overs came in the two poorest offensive efforts of the season (at Ohio State, Iowa). Though Tennessee's defense has been questionable, Nebraska won't be able to take advantage. That's because starting QB Tommy Armstrong is still out and now so too is top WR Jordan Westerkamp (knee), RB Tre Bryant (hamstring) and possibly TE Tyler Hoppes (concussion). That leaves the cupboard rather bare for former walk-on Ryker Fyfe, who actually broke his left wrist in the Maryland game. But the Huskers' defense (21st nationally in YPG allowed) should keep the team close even w/o safety Nate Gerry. 8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee |
|||||||
12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh UNDER 66 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Northwestern/Pitt (2:00 ET): Though an 8-4 SU record and trip to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl hardly seems like an ideal way to end one's season, Pittsburgh should be proud of how it performed in year #2 under HC Pat Narduzzi. They beat two Power 5 Conference Champions. One was Penn State early in the year, the other was Clemson, as 21.5-pt underdogs in Death Valley! The Panthers can lay claim to being the ONLY ACC team to beat Clemson over the L2 seasons. They can also lay claim to being one of the top Over teams in the country. Every game since the opener, which was against FCS Villanova, finished Over the total. That's 11 straight, for those keeping score at home. But as one (if not the only?) "cold weather" bowl game (Game Time Temp expected to be 42), I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. Northwestern was a clear regression candidate coming into 2016 and regress is exactly what they did, going from 10-3 SU a year ago to 6-6 w/ this one game remaining. The Wildcats have been regular bowl participants during HC Pat Fitzgerald's tenure here, but have won just ONE bowl game in 10 appearances! Though they curiously averaged significantly more points per game on the road than in Evanston, the Under was 8-4 for this team during the regular season. In each of those four Overs, three of those coming on the road, they scored 38 points or more. But in the other eight games, they failed to top 24 points! That's quite the discrepancy. With two hard-nosed head coaches like Narduzzi and Fitzgerald, a high-scoring affair just doesn't seem right. This total, which is easily the highest for any N'western game this season (by a touchdown), is clearly influenced by some of the high scores both teams saw at the end of the regular season. But note those games were played against non-bowl teams. That 76-61 win over Syracuse in the reg season finale is a result Pitt may never repeat again as long as the program lives. The Under is 9-2 in Northwestern's L11 non-conference games and w/ two run-heavy offenses, expect the clock to stay moving. Pitt allows only 109 yds rushing per game. Northwestern is also stingy when it comes to allowing yds over land. By the way, Pitt also lost its offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) just last week. 10* Under Northwestern/Pitt |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy OVER 49 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Ohio/Troy (8:00 ET): This is a very low total for a bowl game. Coming into this year, bowl games had seen an average of 58.7 PPG scored dating back to 2011. Each of the first six bowls games went Under before Memphis & Western Kentucky provided the requisite fireworks we're used to seeing this time of year. Of course, a big reason for this total being so low is the fact Ohio was the top Under team in the country at 11-1-1. But rarely did Frank Solich's Bobcats face a total this low. The final score was 29-23 when they lost the MAC Championship Game to Western Michigan. The opponent here in the Dollar General Bowl (played in Mobile, AL) is Troy, themselves a bit of an Under squad. But in a game like this, where the opponents are unfamiliar, I'm willing to wager this game will be higher scoring than expected. Take the Over. Though a regular participant in these bowl games, Ohio has never had much success. They've won only two of nine and LY's was definitely "one to forget" as they blew a lead against Appalachian State and lost 31-29 (Camellia Bowl). Looking back, we can see the majority of their bowl appearances have resulted in high scoring games. This year's squad has been carried by the defense, which permits just 22.2 points per game. That said, they typically allowed more than that average when facing a bowl eligible opponent. In fact, five of six bowl teams that they faced during the regular season scored at least 27 points against the Bobcats. Only one reg season O/U line was below 50 pts and that was against offensively inept Kent State. The vast majority of their games fell just shy of the individual totals. For all the talk surrounding Ohio's defense coming into this matchup, Troy's defense was slightly better on a points per game basis (22.0 allowed). But the key will be the Trojans offense, which led the Sun Belt in scoring, passing and total yardage. They come in averaging a healthy 34.2 PPG and that number would be even higher were in not for the "egg" they laid at home to Arkansas State on November 17th (lost 35-3). This team should be extra motivated by how their reg season ended, another outright loss, this one as seven point favorites at Georgia Southern. I remember that game because I was on Georgia Southern! At one point though, this team was ranked as they were 8-1 SU w/ the lone loss to Clemson. This is their first bowl since 2010. As is the case w/ Ohio, there's a chance this will close as the lowest total for any Troy game this season. 10* Over Ohio/Troy |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico UNDER 58.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under UTSA/New Mexico (2:00 ET): How appropriate that for the second year in a row and fourth time since '07 that the University of New Mexico will take part in the New Mexico Bowl? This year's edition of Lobos football was the strongest yet in HC Bob Davie's five-year tenure, at least record-wise, as they went 8-4 straight up, including a 56-35 thrashing of a good Wyoming team (that admittedly had nothing to play for) in the regular season finale. The opponent here will be 1st time bowler UTSA, a school that has only been full-time at the FBS level for four years. I had success both playing on (at Arizona State) and against (at Rice) the Roadrunners this year as they finished off a 6-6 SU campaign w/ a 33-14 win over Charlotte. Though I think the underdog will be competitive here, I do not believe they will win their 1st ever bowl in what amounts to a "true" road game. Thus, we turn to the total instead. Perhaps the key record in handicapping this game is that New Mexico went 10-2 Over during the regular season, including a perfect 6-0 in Albuquerque. In fact, the Over cashed in each of the team's first seven games this year. Most of the totals were in this same neighborhood, but even though bowls tend to be high-scoring, I'm going the other way in this one. The key obviously will be how well can UTSA defend the New Mexico' rushing attack, which led the nation at 361 YPG. My guess is "a lot better than Wyoming" as the Pokes simply allowed themselves to be run over to the tune of 568 yds! In the regular season, UTSA wasn't that bad against the run, giving up "only" 158 yards at 4.4 YPC. They are used to seeing run-heavy offenses at this point. The New Mexico offense is not much of a threat to pass. UTSA's own offensive production dips rather dramatically on the road, down to 22.8 PPG. That's about two touchdowns per game less than what they average at home. As a first time bowler, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Roadrunners start slow here. Getting back to the defense, a big help for the Roadrunners is that they have had a few weeks to prepare for the UNM triple option. Both of these teams like to predominantly run the ball, so as long as the defenses are providing some resistance, then that should lead to the clock continuing to roll and a quicker ballgame. These teams actually met in both 2013 and 2014 and the Under cashed both times. In each instance, the winning side scored just 21 points! I'm not saying this game will be that low-scoring, but the O/U line is still too high. 10* Under UTSA/New Mexico |