Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -115 in New York Yankees vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ made 10 daytime starts while with the Mariners last season and he went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA. The prior season he was with the Jays and he had a 4.75 ERA in his daytime outings. Happ also had a 5.67 ERA in away games that year while with the Jays. With the M's last season he went 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA in games away from home. The point is that an afternoon match-up on a warm afternoon in the Bronx with the wind likely blowing out toward left field is not a good match-up for the left-hander. The Yankees just saw him last month and they should fare much better in the rematch given the conditions and the fact that they now get to face him on their home turf. The Yanks will need to score plenty to stay in this game today because their starter, C.C. Sabathia is likely to get rocked. I am fully aware that he had a good first start when he first came off of the DL but, like Happ, Sabathia is a guy who has struggled in day games in recent seasons. Sabathia has a 5.06 ERA in his 2 daytime starts this season, 7.36 ERA last season, 8.38 ERA in 2014, and a 4.71 ERA in 2013. The over is 5-1 this season in Yankees home games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Sabathia has given up 13 runs (12 earned) on 24 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Blue Jays spanning his last 3 starts against them. Happ gave up 2 homers in just 5 innings in his last start in the Bronx and though he is off of a good start at Minnesota he was previously rocked by Tampa Bay in an ugly outing in his prior start which lasted only 2 innings. More of the same here. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-26-16 | Marlins v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in Tampa Bay vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - These teams are both swinging the bats quite well and yet we've seen back to back unders in this series the past two games. The teams fell just short of going over the total in each of the last two games even though they combined for 39 hits. A key problem, as you would expect, is wasted opportunities, and the teams have left 37 men on base in the past two games. The fact that each of the last two games failed to go over the total and the fact that today's pitching match-up makes it "look like" this should be a low-scoring game is combining to give us tremendous value with the over. Even though the Marlins Jose Fernandez is throwing very well right now, he has struggled against the Rays. Tampa Bay has proven to be a bit of a nemesis for him as he's gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his two career starts at Tropicana Field. While the Rays also have a "red hot" pitcher on the mound this afternoon and he did have a successful outing against the Marlins last season, Drew Smyly could be in trouble here. Miami is hitting left-handed pitching at a .295 clip so far this season! They have dominated southpaws as only one team (Boston) out of all 30 MLB teams has a higher batting average against lefties. Though Smyly has a "decent" ERA at home this season he is 0-3 in his home starts and he comes into this outing off of three road starts where he's compiled a 5.51 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Giving up too many homers has been a problem and even if Yelich and Stanton are not in the lineup today the Marlins still have plenty of hitters with pop for extra bases...especially against lefties as they've hit so well against southpaws. The over is 41-28 the last 3 seasons combined in Marlins games against southpaws. The over is 21-11 the last three seasons in road games where Miami is priced between -100 and -125. The over is 13-8 this season in Marlins games against teams with a losing record. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-25-16 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston vs Colorado @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies Chad Bettis could be a little "off" for this start. His last scheduled start was Sunday and he threw just one inning before the game got cancelled due to rain. Needless to say his routine could be a bit off after the rain-shortened start and now taking the ball on Wednesday for his first "full start" in over a week. Facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB is also not going to do Bettis any favors here. The Red Sox are on an 11-4 run and have averaged 7.5 runs per game during this 15 game hot streak at the plate! Boston will have knuckle-baller Steven Wright on the mound this evening. He has produced solid stats so far this season but if you look at the teams he has faced all of his opponents are ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average or runs scored or BOTH. The point is that a dangerous Rockies lineup could definitely do some serious damage against him Wednesday night. The Rockies are hitting .297 on the season and the over is 31-20 the last 3 seasons combined in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 7-2 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is also 16-9 in Boston games this season when they are off of a win. Look for the Red Sox hitters to stay hot at the plate while the Rockies join in for some offensive fireworks tonight in weather conditions that are very favorable for the hitters Wednesday at Fenway Park. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-25-16 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs San Diego @ 3:45 ET - The Giants offense got back on track in yesterday's 8-2 win and I expect another big game from them here. But it also won't surprise me to see the Padres match San Francisco run for run in this one. That's because the Giants will have Jake Peavy on the mound and he is 1-5 with an 8.21 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy has given up at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts this season. Even though the Padres have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, they should have no problems getting to Peavy in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out in San Francisco. As for the Giants hitters', they will be seeing the Padres James Shields for the 3rd time already this season. Even though Shields hasn't given up many runs in those two starts there certainly are some noteworthy stats that show he could be on the cusp of getting crushed by the San Francisco lineup this afternoon. Shields walked 4 in the first start and then allowed 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 7 innings in his 2nd start against the Giants. That outing came just last week and will help ensure that the San Francisco bats are "honed in" on Shields' offerings today. Look for the over to improve to 8-2 this season in Peavy's starts and also 4-2 in the Padres last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Giants day games this season and 74-56 the last 3 seasons combined. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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05-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 7:05 ET - The Diamondbacks were off yesterday but they are on 5-1 run to the over through Sunday. In those 6 games Arizona has averaged 6.5 runs per game and they may surprise some today in terms of the damage they are capable of against Francisco Liriano of the Pirates. They got to him for two homers earlier this season in their game against the Pittsburgh southpaw and it marked the 2nd straight time that the Dbacks have gotten to him for at least 4 earned runs. Arizona is likely to again give Liriano some trouble Tuesday as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits (including 4 homers) in his last two starts which have spanned 11 and 2/3 innings. That's good news for the Diamondbacks because they'll need all the runs they can get today. That's because Arizona is starting Shelby Miller today and the right-hander has looked like he's throwing batting practice in recent outings. Miller has given up 17 hits in his last two starts and he's been fortunate that he's allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing as the 17 hits and 4 walks have been accumulated in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work. In other words Miller's current form shows him allowing about 2 baserunners per inning. That's not going to bode well for a match-up with a Pirates team that has won 6 of their last 8 games and has averaged 6.3 runs per game in those six victories. Pittsburgh has been red hot at the plate and, with yesterday's over versus Colorado, the Pirates are now 11-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 6-0 in Pittsburgh's Tuesday games this season. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 11-5 in Pirates games so far this year. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.2 runs per game this season in games where the opposition started a southpaw. The Pirates are hitting .288 in home games this season. This has all the makings of a high-scoring battle between these foes Tuesday. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-23-16 | Rays v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Miami vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Both of these teams were involved in games that went over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. The Rays have only stayed under the total once in their last dozen games! The Marlins certainly have not been such an "over machine" of late but Miami should feast on the offerings of the Rays Matt Moore today. The Marlins .273 batting average versus southpaws this season ranks them 5th in the majors and Moore is struggling badly. The Rays left-hander is winless in his last 3 starts with an 8.36 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. The only good news for Moore is that he should benefit from some solid run support on Monday. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .473 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 4th in the majors! That said, southpaw Wei-Yin Chen could give up some big hits in this one. The lefty has given up 23 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 17 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, the Rays lineup is very familiar with him and Chen has allowed 21 hits (including FOUR homers) in his last 17 innings against Tampa Bay. The over is 3-1 in Rays games this season where they are a small road dog of up to +125. In their 12 games against left-handed starters this season, Tampa Bay has had just 4 unders. The over is 40-28 in Marlins games against southpaw starters the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Miami |
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05-22-16 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers' duel that came within one pitch of being an Angels 1-0 win. However, with two on and two out in the top of the 9th, the Orioles got a three-run bomb and went on to win 3-1. There is every reason to believe that today's game will play out much differently than yesterday's low-scoring affair. The total on today's game is a 9 with good reason as it will be a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out in Anaheim. The pitching match-up is ideal for a slugfest and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, in games where the O's are a small road favorite of up to -125, the over is 4-0 this season! Orioles day games are 7-2 to the over this season. Before yesterday's under, the Angels had been on a 7-2 run to the over and I expect their hot hitting to resume today. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he's given up 11 runs (10 earned) in his last two starts and those outings spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings! Those were both at home for Jimenez whom has also gone 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.73 ERA. Jered Weaver has also struggled in his last two starts for the Angels. The veteran right-hander has gone 0-2 with 12 runs allowed (11 earned) on 19 hits (including FIVE homers!) in only 11 innings of work. The Orioles have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 4 road games and the Angels, overall, had averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 9 games prior to yesterday's tough day at the plate. The Angels stranded 11 men on base yesterday. Look for them to make up for that today as both these starters get rocked on a perfect afternoon for baseball in Anaheim! *10* OVER in LA Angels |
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05-21-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 or 9.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 4:05 ET Saturday - A very mild afternoon is expected in Boston Saturday and the wind is expected to be blowing out. That can help to turn Fenway Park into a "bandbox" that is very favorable for the hitters and that is exactly what I am expecting in Game Two of this series. Helping our cause here (for the over) is this pitching match-up. Joe Kelly gets the start after coming back from a trip to the DL. He went on the DL due to a shoulder impingement. Though he pitched well in the minors in his final rehab start, he certainly hasn't fared well at the big league level this season with a 9.34 ERA in his three early season starts. Also, since coming to Boston, he had a 6.29 ERA in his day game outings in 2014 and a 5.62 ERA in his day games starts last season. This season he's been hit at a .368 clip and I don't see a day game at Fenway Park being a good situation for him to make his first start back. However, at least he should have plenty of run support because the Red Sox offense has been among the best in baseball early this season. Boston should have no trouble with the offerings of Cleveland's Trevor Bauer. They faced him in August here at Fenway Park and got to him for 5 earned runs early and knocked him out of the game in the 2nd inning! Even though Bauer has pitched better early this season, this is still a guy with a career 4.44 ERA and now facing his toughest start so far this year. 3 of his first 4 starts this season (filling in for Carlos Carrasco) have come against three opponents with team batting averages of .235 or less (Philadelphia, Houston, and Minnesota). Now he faces a Boston team hitting nearly .300 on the season. Entering Friday's action the over was 21-11 in Indians games on grass fields this season. The over was also 5-1 in Red Sox home games with a posted total of 9 to 9.5 runs. This total is big for a reason. This should be a slugfest Saturday. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-20-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - The Indians are off of a 7-2 in at Cincinnati last night that went over the total. In their last 15 games, Cleveland has stayed under the total only 3 times. The Indians now visit a hitter-friendly park and face one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball as Cleveland faces the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Boston is on an 8-1-1 run to the over and the weather is also expected to be favorable for an over on Friday night. Even though Corey Kluber is a "big name pitcher" for Cleveland, the right-hander has given up 9 earned runs in his last two starts spanning only 9 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, he faced Boston in early April and got clobbered. By the way, the Red Sox Clay Buchholz faced the Indians in early April and he also got hammered. Buchholz comes into this start in poor current form as well as he has allowed 9 earned run in his last 2 starts spanning only 11 innings of work. The Red Sox right-hander has given up 3 homers in his last two starts as well and both of those outings were at home. This total looks to be moving toward a 9 and the over is already 7-2 this season in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Red Sox are coming off of a win Wednesday and the over is 15-8 in Boston's games this season when they are off of a win. As for the Indians, the over is 21-11 in their games on grass this season and 17-9 in Cleveland's games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox lineup has been producing runs like crazy while the Indians lineup is hotter than it's been all season. All signs are therefore pointing to a slugfest at Wrigley Field Friday night. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Cincinnati vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - Josh Tomlin of the Indians is 5-0 on the season. However, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 starts and, in his last three starts he has compiled a 4.42 ERA. The last time he faced the Reds Tomlin gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings of work. The last time he pitched at Cincinnati Tomlin gave up 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. Cincy has scored 6 runs or more (plus had 10 hits or more) in 3 of their last 4 games. The Reds stay hot at the plate tonight and they'll need it because the Indians have beaten Cincinnati three straight times and averaged 12 runs per game in those three victories. The Tribe should have no problems with the offerings of Tim Adleman. He is making just his 4th start of the season and he has struggled more with each start he's made. 7 baserunners in 5 innings two starts ago and then 10 baserunners in 5 innings in his last start. That outing came against a Phillies team that certainly has not been an offensive juggernaut this season. That said, the way the Indians are hitting the ball, they should do damage early and often against Adleman. Another key factor here is that the Cincy bullpen is easily one of the worst in baseball so Cleveland should be piling up runs throughout Thursday's contest. The over is 16-9 in Indians games against right-handed starters this season and 20-11 in their games on grass. The over is 18-10 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and that strong trend continues Thursday. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-18-16 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -102 in Oakland vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - This is truly a contrarian play as many are likely to be looking for a pitchers duel here based on the low ERAs of these two hurlers. This is helping to give line value here as the juice has already moved from the over side to the under side in this one as of early gameday morning. A crazy 9th inning is what allowed yesterday's game to soar over the total as both bullpens suffered collapses. That is good news if we need some late runs in this one as both pens are "rattled". However, I don't expect to need that as I look for both of these starting pitchers to have some issues. Texas is looking to avoid a sweep and the over is 10-7 this season in Rangers games when they are off of a loss. They are facing Rich Hill who has enjoyed some surprising early season success but whom is 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA in his home starts this season. The journeyman southpaw is having some issues with command of his pitches and has walked 3 or more batters in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Rangers have a potent enough offense to make him pay as they are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and it will be a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out to right. As far as the A's offense, this will be the 4th straight southpaw starter they are facing. The over is 5-2 in Athletics games against left-handed starters this season. It tends to help a lineup when they see a lefty in consecutive outings and in this case it's been lefty-lefty-lefty-lefty for the A's to tee off against. Like Hill, Martin Perez of the Rangers is having some issues with command of his pitches and the left-hander also has given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts against Oakland and those spanned a total of less than 9 innings! Perez has more walks than strikeouts in his road starts this season and the A's confidence at the plate is soaring right now as they have scored at least 5 runs and reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games. The over is 8-2 in the Rangers last 10 games and 10-3 in the A's last 13 games. More of the same Wednesday afternoon. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-17-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams exploded for 18 runs yesterday and the Twins offense is certainly coming to life as they have now averaged 6.25 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Tigers lineup has pounded out 13 or more hits in 3 of their last 5 games and the over is 8-2 in Detroit's last 10 games and 13-3-1 in the Twins last 17 games. With this pitching match-up today featuring a pair of fading veteran hurlers I look for both teams to continue pounding the ball tonight. Both of these starting pitchers have already seen the better years of their career. Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers faced the Twins two weeks ago and got pounded for 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Phil Hughes of Minnesota faced the Tigers a little over two weeks ago and he gave up 4 earned runs in just 5 innings on the mound. Overall, Hughes has a 12.27 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit's Pelfrey is off of a surprisingly "decent" start at Baltimore in his last outing but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in each of his 3 prior starts. He's winless on the season and has a 9.39 ERA in his home starts on the year. The Twins are 14-6 to the over in night games this season and 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 11-4 to the over this season in their home games and also 22-9 to the over this season in their games against a right-handed starter. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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05-17-16 | Marlins v. Phillies +103 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, and the Mets are all in an early season battle near the top of the NL East. The Phillies weren't supposed to be there but, thanks to solid pitching, Philadelphia absolutely is "hanging around" and certainly doesn't appear poised to drop off anytime soon. The Phillies are off of back to back losses but previously had won 6 of their last 7 games. The Marlins, with the win in yesterday's series opener, have won 3 straight but Miami had previously dropped 5 of their last 7 games. The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching in this match-up in addition to having the homefield edge. Additionally, the Phils bullpen has a 3.26 ERA at home and the Miami bullpen has a 3.82 ERA on the road. Wei-yin Chen and Vincent Velasquez just squared off in Miami a week and a half ago and the Marlins won that game 6 to 4. However, Velasquez certainly was the better pitcher. While each hurler allowed 4 earned runs, Chen gave up 11 hits in just 5 innings of work and he did not record a single strikeout. Velasquez gave up only 7 hits in 6 innings of work and he recorded 5 strikeouts. This game is projected to be a low-scoring pitchers duel and the Marlins are 25-43 the last 3 seasons in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Philadelphia is 4-1 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. The Phillies are also 9-4 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Phils are trying to avoid a 3rd straight loss and, since opening the season 0-4 the Phillies have only had one losing streak last more than two games. Philadelphia was on a 22-11 (67%) run before losing back to back games. One of the least respected teams in the league continues to be a pleasant surprise and I'll gladly grab them (with the better starting pitcher too!) as a home dog in this spot as they bounce right back as they've been doing all season long. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-16-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman certainly has impressed early this season. However, after a 5-0 start he's now lost 2 straight and Monday he'll be facing a Twins team that is off of back to back wins and scored 17 runs in their 3-game set at Cleveland over the weekend. The point is that Minnesota could absolutely give Zimmerman some trouble here. As well as the Detroit right-hander has pitched early this season his strikeout numbers were down in his past two starts and he did allow 14 hits in his 15 innings of work. Solid outings nonetheless but it's not like the guy has been unhittable and the Twins are swinging the sticks better in recent games. Minnesota has had just 2 unders in their 13 games in the month of May! The Twins are also 7-2 to the over when off of a win this season and they also are 5-1 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 10-4 to the over in May and also 10-4 to the over in their home games this season. Detroit also is 21-9 to the over in their games against right-handed starters this season. Jose Berrios gets the start for Minny tonight and he has a 1.75 WHIP in his 3 starts this year and his ugly 6.28 ERA could easily be even worse. The hungry Tigers (slumping for weeks) got a much needed win yesterday and produced 6 runs on 13 hits. Detroit is happy to be back home and I look for them to rally after yesterday's win. They should score plenty tonight but the Twins are starting to put things together at the plate and this should be a close, but high-scoring, game all the way. The Minnesota bullpen has a 5.89 ERA on the road this season and the Tigers pen has a 5.10 ERA at home this season. Big runs at Comerica Park tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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05-15-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs +105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - This match-up actually stayed under the closing total yesterday as the line moved to 11.5 rather early in the day and, amazingly, the game got to 7-4 by the top of the 6th and then went scoreless the rest of the way. The teams did combine for 25 hits and I look for more hot hitting today. Even though the Mets Jacob deGrom has good career numbers against the Rockies a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has never faced them at hitter friendly Coors Field. This will be deGrom's first ever start at Colorado and the Rockies have pounded out at least a dozen hits in 4 of the first 5 games of this 6 game homestand. The Mets deGrom has only allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last two starts but he did give up 16 hits in the 12 innings of work. Baserunners at Coors Field lead to problems in a hurry and that is especially true in an afternoon game. Yes the wind will be blowing in and it will be a little cool this afternoon but that thin and air (especially in an afternoon game) is so favorable for the hitters at Coors Field. That is a big reason why you also see the huge home/away disparity with Tyler Chatwood's numbers for the Rockies. The right-hander gets the start for Colorado this afternoon and, while he has pitched very well on the road, he has been rocked at home this season. Chatwood has gone 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA in his three home starts this season. I expect both Chatwood and deGrom (welcome to Coors Field!) to struggle this afternoon and, even though it may not be needed, there certainly should be more late inning runs than what we saw yesterday. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.71 ERA in home games this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-14-16 | Tigers +122 v. Orioles | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Detroit Tigers Money Line +122 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Even though the overall numbers of Anibal Sanchez are not that impressive so far this season, he is starting to turn the corner. He has only given up 13 hits while striking out 18 in his last 3 starts spanning nearly 19 innings of work. Compare that with Mike Wright who is getting the start for the Orioles today. Wright has given up 23 hits in his last 3 starts spanning about 17 innings on the mound. You can see who has been much tougher to hit recently and Wright's recent start was also his worst as he allowed 10 hits in only 5 innings against the A's last Saturday. The Tigers are off of 1-0 shutout loss to the Orioles yesterday and certainly Baltimore has been the hot team while Detroit has been the cold team in recent action. However, I can definitely see that flipping today as the Tigers Sanchez is fully capable of a strong start here while I just don't see the "hittable" Wright being able to stay out of trouble against this potent Tigers lineup Saturday. Detroit is 3-1 in Sanchez's 4 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore only had 4 hits in yesterday's game and that was the 7th time in their last 11 games that the O's were held to 8 hits or less. Baltimore's Wright has career numbers of 4-8 with a 5.96 ERA and a .298 BAA. Last season he went 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in night games and he has notched only one victory in night games in his career. We've got the better pitcher on the mound this evening with an entire team behind him that is ready to bounce back off of a 1-0 shutout loss. Underdog value. *10* DETROIT |
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05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Cleveland vs Minnesota @ 4:10 ET - This can be categorized as a bit of a contrarian play. I say that because I am well aware of the fact that it will be a bit of a "raw" afternoon in Cleveland and the wind will be blowing in and the temperatures will only get cooler as the game goes along. However, one of the keys in a situation like this is it tends to give line value to the over. The conditions don't seem ideal but the current trending of both of these clubs as well as current struggles for both of these hurlers has me backing the over in a big way Saturday. Yesterday's 7-6 Cleveland win means that Minnesota has gone over the total to the tune of 8-1-1 in their 10 games this month. As for the Indians, they have had only 2 unders in their last 8 games. The Twins Ervin Santana just returned from the disabled list and the results were concerning. Santana gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 3 and 1/3 innings. Things are unlikely to improve for the struggling right-hander today as he gave up 8 earned runs on 10 hits in only 2 and 2/3 innings in his last start at Cleveland! The key "X factor" to this play is that Corey Kluber is a big name pitcher for the Indians but I fully expect him to struggle here. He has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings of work against Minny and he is coming off of a rough outing in his most recent start. Kluber gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work at Houston on Monday. The over is 10-5 in Cleveland home games this season. Also, the over is 10-4 in Indians divisional games this season. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-13-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - Temps will get up into the mid-70s today before cooling off this evening in Denver. Though a cool front is coming in and the wind will likely be blowing in from right field, the air will still be extremely dry and balls hit well to center and left field should carry well given the expected win direction. The key here is we are getting some line value because these pitchers have some good numbers and likely because of the forecast wind condition. Keep in mind, totals at Coors Field are usually in the 11 range and oftentimes even up into the 12 range. With this one opening up at a 10.5 and then moving down to a 10, I am not going to hesitate to get involved. Sure, Matt Harvey has good career numbers against the Rockies but he's never faced them at hitter-friendly Coors Field! As for Jon Gray, the last time he faced the Mets was in Colorado in August and he gave up 7 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. Gray has an 11.42 ERA in his two home starts this season. Harvey is coming off of a great outing but that was against a Padres team that has one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Harvey's first 5 starts this season, saw him allow 42 hits in 34 innings and truly he has faced a lot of struggles offenses this season. 5 of the 6 games saw him face teams that are hitting .236 or less this season. The other one was against a Royals team that ranks 26th out of 30 teams for runs scored this season! Now Harvey will face a Rockies team that is hitting .292 in home games which is tops in the NL and 2nd in MLB overall. The over is 10-5 this season in Colorado home games and 3-1 when the Rockies are coming off of an off day. The Mets weren't off yesterday but they may as well have been. They got shut out by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The over is 3-0 this season in Mets games when they are off of a shutout loss. Also, the past three seasons combined, the over is 24-14 in Mets games when they are a small road favorite (up to -125). *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-12-16 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Baltimore vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are hot. Not only have they won four straight games but they have scored an average of 7.5 runs per game during this streak while also averaging 12.5 hits per game. Now, on Thursday, the O's get the luxury of teeing off against the Tigers Mike Pelfrey. The veteran right-hander has been a model of consistency for Detroit but not in a good way! Pelfrey has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last three starts! Also, the Tigers righty has walked 14 while striking out just 12 in his last five starts. In his last 3 starts against Baltimore, Pelfrey allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing but he certainly was fortunate. He gave up 27 hits in those 3 starts even though they spanned less than 17 innings of work! The only good news for Tigers fans tonight is that at least their lineup should make some noise as well. Detroit is off of a disastrous game at Washington yesterday that felt much worse than the 3-2 final score. The Tigers struck out 20 times in the game and are anxious to redeem themselves against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander is only 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, against the Tigers, Jimenez gave up at least 6 earned runs against them in each of his two outings last season even though he didn't make it out of the 5th inning of either start. The over is 12-4 in Detroit's games against teams with a winning record this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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05-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs -105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game easily stayed under the total but it was a 'quirky' result to say the last. The Diamondbacks pounded out 14 hits Tuesday but they left 10 men on base. The Rockies went an insane 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That is not a result you are likely to see again at Coors Field anytime soon. After being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game, look for the Rockies to get right back on track here. Colorado should have no trouble with the offerings of Robbie Ray as they just saw him in Arizona less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. The Rockies got 4 homers off of Ray in that game! The Diamondbacks southpaw has an 8.03 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The only good news for Ray today is that he should have plenty of run support behind him. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game during their current 5 game winning streak. Though Chad Bettis held them to 3 earned runs when he faced them in Arizona, the Rockies right-hander did given up 9 hits in his 6 innings on the mound. Overall, Bettis has been getting hit hard recently with 8 earned runs on 17 hits in his last 12 innings of work. The Rockies hitting production at home ranks among the best in the league but their bullpen work at home ranks them among the worst in the league in that category. With that said, this one is likely to turn into a slugfest Wednesday afternoon. Even with yesterday's surprising under, the over is still 9-5 in Rockies home games this season. Also, Colorado is 6-3 to the over in their 9 games against left-handed starters this season. The over is also 17-7 the last 3 seasons in Arizona games when they enter on a winning streak of 3 games or more. In their 8 Diamondbacks day games so far this season, only 2 have resulted in unders. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs +105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Rubby de la Rosa pitched quite well before struggling in his most recent outing. I also know he's enjoyed some surprising success at Coors Field in recent outings. However, the way he struggled at Miami seemed to be a bit of a mechanical flaw that I don't see him turning around from one outing to the next. Also, he's now 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.22 ERA. The Diamondbacks right-hander also got rocked by the Rockies when he faced them in Arizona last July. Overall, de la Rosa has allowed 9 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against Colorado. The Rockies are averaging 6.4 runs per game against Diamondbacks pitching this season and will be looking to respond after yesterday's 10-5 loss. They may respond at the plate but the Rockies pitching continues to be a concern. At home, the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA this season. That's particularly bad news today because certainly the Colorado bullpen may be called upon early in this one. That's because southpaw Chris Rusin is getting the start for the Rockies. He pitches to contact but managed to have surprising success against the Diamondbacks in Arizona last month. Now the Dbacks get a quick second look at him though and he is coming off of a start where he got absolutely hammered at San Francisco. Overall, Rusin is 11-19 with a 5.11 ERA and a .296 BAA in his MLB career. In the past 4 years, he was hit at .308 or better in 3 of the 4 seasons. He's facing a Diamondbacks team that has a lofty .457 slugging percentage and has averaged 5 runs in their games against left-handed starters this season. The Dbacks have won 4 straight games and the over is 17-6 the last 3 seasons when Arizona enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The over is 9-4 in Rockies home games this season and the weather should be ideal for the ball to again carry very well tonight. There were 13 extra base hits in last night's games and I expect more of the same tonight. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - Archie Bradley is only 23 years old and had an ERA up near 6 in his 8 starts with the Diamondbacks last season. He is making a spot start here for Arizona and this is just his 2nd start at the MLB level in 2016. If his first one is any indication, it should be a rough outing for Bradley. He got rocked at pitcher-friendly San Francisco 3 weeks ago and now he has to make his first-ever Coors Field start and the wind direction could be switching around early in this game and actually blowing out. Even if it's blowing in a bit in the early stages, the thin air of Colorado will help the carry of the ball and Bradley is going to get rocked by a Rockies lineup that routinely hits around .300 in their home games year in and year out. The Diamondbacks should also enjoy success at the plate tonight. Tyler Chatwood has struggled in his home starts this season. Also, the right-hander's last significant time as a starter (2013 season) shows this is no fluke as he got hit at a .294 clip in his home starts that season at Coors Field. Even earlier in his career he was hit a .310 clip in home games for a full season as a starter for the Angels. The Diamondbacks saw him last month so that will help them hone in on his offerings tonight. The Dbacks are off of a series sweep at Atlanta where they hit the ball well and they are 16-6 to the over the last three seasons combined when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Rockies are 8-4 to the over in their home games this season. Rockies bullpen has ERA at home up near 6 so far this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-08-16 | Phillies -101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -101 @ Miami @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies rallied late for a 4-3 win last night and that is the kind of a win that can put an end to another team's momentum while boosting the morale of the victories team. The Phillies had been very hot but then lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 so they really needed that victory and will likely build on it today as the Phils have been a streaky team so far this season. The Marlins had won 4 straight and 11 of their last 12 before yesterday's loss and that (a late loss) is one of the toughest for a team to bounce back from. The key here is that the Phillies have a large pitching edge in this match-up. Aaron Nola has dominated each of his last three starts even though they've been on the road. Overall he is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP in his four road starts this season. He has struck out 29 while walking just 4 in those 4 outings. This is in stark contrast to the Marlins Justin Nicolino. The Miami right-hander pitched well in his first start this season but this will be just his third start of the season and, in his second start Nicolino gave up 4 earned runs in just 6 innings of work. He also has 5 walks against only 2 strikeouts so far this season. The Marlins are 3-5 this season (and 46-65 the last three seasons combined) in day games. They have lost 3 of their 4 Sunday games this season while Philadelphia has won 3 of their 4 Sunday games this year. The Phillies also are 8-3 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -110 in St Louis vs Pittsburgh @ 2:15 ET - The ball is known for carrying well in day games in St Louis and the weather should be especially helpful in that regard today. Warm afternoon weather with the wind blowing out and with the air fairly dry. The ball will carry very well today and that's bad news for the pitchers in this one as they were already struggling coming into this outing. The Pirates Jeff Locke has pitched a little better in his last two starts but Pittsburgh is still only 1-4 in his starts this season as he's compiled a 4.72 ERA that certainly could be much worse considering his 1.84 WHIP. The right-hander has an atrocious 2.07 WHIP in his road outings this season and got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start at St Louis. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and he's only 2-3 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Also, his two home starts have seen the veteran right-hander compile a 7.94 ERA. In his last 3 starts against the Pirates Wainwright has compiled a 5.00 ERA and he allowed three homers in his last home start versus Pittsburgh. Both of Wainwright's home starts have gone over the total and 3 of Locke's last 4 starts have gone over the total. The over is 7-1 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is also 7-3 in Pittsburgh's day games this season. This will be the 5th Saturday game for the Cardinals so far this season and they've yet to record an under on a Saturday. Look for that streak to remain intact with today's result on a great day for baseball (particularly hitting the baseball) this afternoon at Busch Stadium. *10* OVER in St Louis |
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05-06-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 ET - Tyler Cravy gets the start for the Brewers only because Wily Peralta was placed on the paternity list (birth of daughter). Cravy will be limited to just 85 pitches as he had only made one start at Triple A before this call up. This is bad news for a Milwaukee bullpen whose ERA is over 5 and that, on the road, has a WHIP up near 2.00 so, in other words base runners galore. This has played a big role in the Brewers going over the total in 8 straight games and 10 of their last 11. As for the Reds, they are starting Tim Adleman who had a good outing in his first this season but whom will be making just the 2nd MLB start of his career. The Reds have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games and their bullpen has had a disastrous start to the season including a 6.53 ERA and only 1 save in 6 opportunities so far. The over is 7-3 this season when the Reds are off of a win and also 11-5 in divisional games. The Brewers have had just 7 unders in their 28 games this season. Milwaukee is averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Reds are averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. With two inexperienced starting pitchers on the mound, two weak bullpens, and some confident sticks loaded up in each lineup, this one should fly over the total. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-05-16 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8.5 runs in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 6:10 ET - With the Indians 4-0 win yesterday, Cleveland games have now stayed under the total in 4 of their last 5. The Indians are only hitting .247 on the season. The Tigers have averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their five games against the Indians this season. They are likely to struggle again this evening. Not only is it going to be a raw, chilly night with a north wind blowing in as well, the fact is that the Indians Trevor Bauer is going to be much stronger tonight now that he's not on a strict pitch count. In his first start this season, last week, he was limited but tonight he'll be turned loose and Bauer is healthy again and he's tough when he's commanding his pitches like he is right now. The Tigers will have Michael Fullmer on the mound and, like Bauer, he'll be making his 2nd start of the season and, like Bauer, I expect him to go even deeper into this game after a solid MLB debut. Fullmer did a good job of keeping the ball down in his MLB debut and 6 of the 7 hits he allowed were singles. He got a lot of ground ball outs and some nice strike outs as well. The Tigers bullpen has been stellar this season while the Indians bullpen has been solid as well. Factoring in the weather as well that makes this the perfect spot for a solid under. You might expect a "crazy" game after yesterday's shutout win for the Indians but the Tigers are actually 2-0 to the under when off of a shutout loss. Also, the under is 16-9 in Indians games the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout win. In 14 night games this season for the Tribe, only 5 overs have resulted. This evening's game should stay well under the total as well. *10* UNDER in Cleveland |
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05-04-16 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Arizona Diamonds Money Line +165 @ Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins are heating up and got the win yesterday but previously Miami was just 2-7 at home this season. Although the Diamondbacks have been streaky this season, Arizona was a solid 7-3 in road games before yesterday's loss. The point is that Wednesday offers a great value opportunity to back a big road dog that has a great shot at the upset win here. The Diamondbacks will have a red hot Rubby De La Rosa on the mound. He has given up just 1 earned run on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 16 in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. He went 1-0 in 2 starts against Miami last season while compiling a 1.69 ERA. Certainly I respect the Marlins starter, Jose Fernandez, who is slated to get the start in tonight's game. However, Fernandez has walked 13 in his last 4 starts spanning just 23 innings. That's too many free passes and, prior to his last start, he allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 4 starts this season. That makes the Diamondbacks absolutely worth a shot here considering the pitching match-up as well as the home/road records so far this season. The Dbacks have won 7 of the last 10 games where they were an underdog and I love the value here with backing them as a pup once again. *10* ARIZONA |
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05-03-16 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -110 in San Diego vs Colorado @ 10:10 ET - When people think of the Rockies offense often comes to mind. However, they are a different team away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Yesterday's 2-1 loss easily stayed under the total and that means that Colorado has had just 3 overs in their last 11 road games! Though there were 15 hits in yesterday's game, 13 of them were singles. The Padres are known for their struggles at the plate and Petco Field is absolutely a pitchers park. That is a big part of the reason that Andrew Cashner has great career numbers in his home starts with San Diego. Already this season Cashner has been strong at home. He's coming off of a rare rough road outing but, in his prior two starts (both at home) he allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings in each start. In his last home start versus the Rockies, the Padres right-hander gave up just 1 earned run in 7 and 1/3 innings of work. Cashner will be opposed by Eddie Butler of the Rockies tonight. One must be careful in looking at his stats both in the majors and minors. That's because his home games at the MLB level are at hitter friendly Coors and in the minor leagues his recent action has been at AAA Albuquerque and they play their home games in one of the most hitter friendly venues in all of minor league baseball. Butler struck out 4 in 2 and 1/3 innings in his first appearance (out of the bullpen) for the Rockies this season. He's capable of holding the Padres in check here as they went into yesterday's game hitting just .219 in home games this season! The Rockies bullpen also, as you would expect, is much better on the road compared to at home. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 games. Look for another pitchers duel tonight. *10* UNDER 7.5 in San Diego |
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05-02-16 | Nationals v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -115 in Kansas City vs Washington @ 8:15 ET - The Nationals have had just 8 overs in their 24 games this season while the Royals have had just 5 overs in their 24 games this season. Based on the pitching match-up for Monday, this looks like another great spot for the under. Gio Gonzalez has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP so far this season. Edinson Volquez is coming off of a rough start so I fully expect him to respond as he's back home for this start and the Royals right-hander has a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his three home starts this season. His most recent was on the road and was truly an aberration as he had pitched well in all four of his starts so far this season (including a road outing) before that ugly outing last week. Washington hasn't faced Volquez since 2014 and he held them to 2 earned runs in over 12 innings of work in his two starts against them that season. Gonzalez struggled against the Royals when he last faced them but that was in 2013 and that was the only start he has had against them since the 2011 season. A lack of familiarity is almost always an edge for the pitcher and the Nationals left-hander is throwing extremely well so far this season. The Royals are averaging just 2.7 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Nationals are hitting just .234 on the season. Both clubs bullpens have been fantastic this season. The under has cashed in 9 of 11 Royals home games this season. In 12 road games this season the Nationals have had just 3 overs! *10* UNDER in Kansas City |
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05-01-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -105 in Oakland vs Houston @ 4:05 ET - The A's Rich Hill has an interesting dichotomy that has developed so far this season. He's been great on the road but struggled at home. As we enter the 2nd month of the season this will be Hill's 3rd home start of the young season. Though he's been lights out on the road this season, the Oakland southpaw has gone 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA at home and that ERA could easily have been even worse as Hill has a 2.29 WHIP in home games. Putting baserunners on against a powerful Astros lineup can prove to be dangerous. Yes, Houston has struggled at the plate this season as shown by their batting average but they are still putting together a solid slugging percentage due to good power in the lineup. After getting shutout yesterday I look for the Houston bats to respond today and they certainly will need to because their starting pitcher, Doug Fister, is struggling miserably. Fister is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has given up 5 homers in his 4 starts this season and he walked 7 in his most recent outing. Fister has given up 15 earned runs on 29 hits in just 15 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the A's. Oakland's bats should do plenty of damage here in a day game with the wind blowing out. The over is 10-4 in Houston road games this season and the over is 3-1 in Astros games against left-handed starters this season. The Houston bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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04-30-16 | Blue Jays +123 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +130 @ Tampa Bay @ 6:10 ET - The Rays lost again yesterday as their bats continue to struggled. Tampa Bay scored just 1 run yesterday and it was the 9th time in the last 11 games that the Rays have been held to 3 runs or less! Tampa Bay has won just 4 of their last 9 games. The Blue Jays haven't been much better as they are just 6-6 in their last 12 games. However, the key is that Toronto is at least getting better offensive productions as the Jays have scored 4 runs or more in 8 of those 12 games. Tampa Bay, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 1-5 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Toronto went 56-34 in games on artificial turf last season while the Rays are below .500 the past 3 seasons combined on artificial turf. Chris Archer gets the start for Tampa Bay today and he finally got on track with a big start against the Orioles last weekend. However, Archer has struggled so badly this season (and had lost all 4 starts prior to the win over Baltimore) that I am not convinced he's going to be able to duplicate the success he had against the O's. The Rays righty is 0-2 with 12 earned runs allowed in less than 14 innings of work in his last 3 starts against the Jays. Toronto will have J.A. Happ on the mound today. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA so far this season. He also has held Tampa Bay to only 2 earned runs in 13 innings spanning his last two starts against them. The Rays are hitting an ugly .210 at home and averaging a ridiculous 2.6 runs per game in home contests so far this season. Grab the fantastic underdog line value here. *10* TORONTO |
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04-29-16 | Tigers +120 v. Twins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 120 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +120 @ Minnesota @ 8:10 ET - Michael Fullmer makes his MLB debut tonight and he's earned this opportunity. I fully expect him to enjoy great success as the Twins have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Minnesota has averaged just 3.5 runs per game so far this season and is hitting just .242 so far on the year. The Tigers offense comes into this game on a hot streak as they have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit, in their games against right-handed starters, have averaged 5 runs per game and hit .272 so far this season. The Tigers should pound Phil Hughes. The veteran right-hander allowed 10 earned runs in just 13 innings in his last 3 starts against Detroit. Also, Hughes is just 1-3 this season despite the fact he's had the added benefit of facing NL teams 2 of his 4 starts. He's been an AL guy and his numbers through the years tell the story as he's compiled at least a 4.19 ERA in 7 of his 9 seasons thusfar. Last season he got hit at a .293 clip for the 2nd time in the past three seasons. He is a very hittable pitcher and the Tigers will pound him again tonight just like they did last season. Meanwhile, with the Tigers not familiar with Fullmer, look for the young hurler to enjoy some success tonight. He had a 10-3 record with an era in the mid-twos last season in the minors and already had 20 strikeouts in 15 innings of AAA ball so far this season. He has earned this call-up and is likely to prove his worth quickly in this start tonight. The added benefit is getting plenty of run support and the Tigers can be expected to jump on Hughes. *10* DETROIT |
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04-28-16 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Arizona vs St Louis @ 9:40 ET - The Cardinals lineup is on fire. St Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games and is averaging 9 runs per game in those contests. The Cardinals certainly should stay hot at the plate against Rubby De La Rosa. The Diamondbacks right-hander is off of a strong outing but that doesn't completely erase how tough his early season outings have gone overall. Also, De La Rosa is known for struggling badly against left-handed batters and the Cardinals have some very tough left-handed sticks that will be in the lineup tonight. The Cards aren't the only hot lineup involved tonight. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their 11 games and have averaged 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The over is 9-3 in Arizona's last 12 games and the over has cashed in 5 straight St Louis games. Even though the Cardinals Michael Wacha is certainly a pitcher I respect, he has not been overly impressive this season. He has been hit at a .301 clip so far this season. Also, in his most recent start (at pitcher-friendly Petco Park!) he walked 4 Padres while not recording a single strikeout. That doesn't bode well for what to expect from Wacha tonight at hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Cardinals are 9-3 to the over this season on the road and the over is 9-2 in St Louis games this season when they are off of a win. The over is 9-4 in Diamondbacks home games this season. In the finale of this 4-game set tonight look for another game filled with fireworks from each of the lineups as they make the over a perfect 4-0 in this series. The Dbacks relievers have a 5.26 ERA in home games this season. More struggles against tonight as De La Rosa is likely to have an early exit at the hands of the powerful Cards. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-27-16 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in Seattle vs Houston @ 10:10 ET - The Mariners exploded for 11 runs yesterday in what was their 6th win in their last 7 games. The M's are averaging 6 runs per game during this hot streak and Colin McHugh of the Astros is unlikely to slow Seattle down. The Astros right-hander has allowed 28 hits in his last 3 starts and those have spanned just 16 and 1/3 innings. He has been way too hittable and already has an ugly 7.56 ERA on the season. In his last two starts against the Mariners, McHugh has given up 6 homers so that's bad news for tonight as Seattle is certainly "feeling it" with how hot their bats have been of late. As for the Astros sticks, they have certainly struggled so far this season but they were heating up before they were shut down by Nate Karns yesterday. The Astros had averaged 5 runs per game and 11 hits per game in their 3 prior contests. After getting shutdown last night, look for the Astros to bounce back tonight. They are still among league leaders in homers early this season. They'll be facing the Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle right-hander has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts against the Astros. Iwakuma allowed 2 homers the last time he faced Houston. He also comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his past two starts overall. The over is 6-2 in McHugh's starts against the Mariners in his career. The over is 8-3 in Astros road games this season. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-26-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 8:40 ET - There is no denying that Gerrit Cole is a fantastic young hurler. But Coors Field has humbled many great pitchers through the years and Cole will be making his first ever appearance here. Cole lucked out as the weather is more favorable than usual for pitchers at Coors Field tonight. The wind will be blowing out of the north and it will be a chilly night. However, that doesn't change the fact that the air is still very thin air and the density of the air (in this case, thin air) absolutely impacts the movement of pitches as well as how well the ball carries here. Cole will be having to adjust on the fly here in his first ever appearance in this ball park. The fact this total has come down from an 11 to a 10 is providing even more line value with the over in this match-up tonight. Cole was 10-1 in day starts last year but 9-7 in night starts with an ERA a full run higher under the lights. As for the Rockies, Jorge De La Rosa gets the start tonight but has a few strikes against him in this spot. The southpaw had his start pushed back a day because he's 'under the weather'. Also, the lefty is struggling badly so far this season with a 9.86 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP so far this year. He's facing a Pirates team that has seen a surge in confidence surging through the lineup as they have their sticks going with 7.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season the Pirates are hitting .292 overall and they've averaged 7.3 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters. The Rockies are hitting a solid .287 at home this season and this game has all the makings of offensive fireworks after last night's rare result as the Rockies scored just 1 run last night. Look for the over to improve to 12-3 in the Pirates last 15 games! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-25-16 | Orioles +120 v. Rays | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Money Line +120 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Chris Archer of the Rays is not "right" and yet he continues to be priced like the Archer of old. He's 0-4 this season with a 7.32 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP and now faces an Orioles team that is hitting .275 on the season and averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. The Rays are hitting just .206 and averaging only 2.9 runs per game so far this season against right-handed starters. They'll be facing Kevin Gausman who has looked fantastic in his rehab starts in the minors leading up to his first MLB start of this season. The way the Rays are swinging the bats and the way Gausman is throwing right now, I just don't foresee much success for Tampa Bay at the plate in this one. Conversely, the Orioles should pound Archer as his struggles continue as he's having trouble with his slider and also having trouble with command of his fastball. The Orioles are 11-6 this season overall. The past two seasons the O's went 13-8 in dome games. In divisional action this season, Baltimore is already 6-2 on the year. Their bullpen has a 1.72 ERA on the season. Off of a loss yesterday, the O's bounce back today. The Rays are off of a win yesterday but that was just the 4th time in 12 games this season that Tampa Bay has defeated a right-handed starter. One more interesting stat here relates to Monday games. The Rays are 14-23 on Mondays the past three seasons combined while the Orioles 26-14 on Mondays. Underdog price here, the better lineup, the better bullpen, and an edge in the starting pitching match-up based on current form! That has me raising the level of this play to my highest level. *10* BALTIMORE |
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04-24-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday was a rare pitchers duel at Coors Field and there will be nothing like that today. We also get to take advantage of the line move here with this total moving down from an 11.5 to an 11 as of early Sunday morning. Both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle today. Alex Wood gets the start for the Dodgers and he's 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP in his two road starts this season. Now he'll be pitching in the toughest venue for pitchers in baseball today. Wood pitcher he in July and September of last year and he allowed 7 earned runs in the first start and 8 earned runs in the second start at Coors Field. Ouch...and I look for more of the same today. His counterpart today is Jordan Lyles. The Rockies right-hander is off of a great start at Cincinnati but his first two starts this season were at home in hitter-friendly Coors. Lyles went winless in those two starts and compiled an 11.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in those two outings. Lyles also is 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA in his career against the Dodgers and that's even with the last three outings all coming at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Today Lyles faces them in the thin air of Denver and I expect he will get crushed and so will Wood in what should be a wild game with plenty of fireworks on offense from both lineups. The Dodgers are 4-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs the past three seasons combined. The Rockies are 7-4 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 93-71 in Rockies home games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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04-23-16 | Mets v. Braves +131 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line +140 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Braves Jhoulys Chacin is throwing the ball extremely well. His shoulder has healed up and he's had his cutter working well which is very effective against lefties. Chacin has allowed just 3 earned runs on 9 hits in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his two starts. He's walked NONE and struck out 14 and I look for another big outing from here. This pitching match-up is offering us great underdog line value with the Braves. Steven Matz is off of a great start versus Cleveland but he was awful in his first start this season against an NL foe, Miami. Look for him to struggle at Atlanta as well. The Braves had their chance against Matz when they saw him in September as all they got was a solo homer against him but they had 7 other baserunners in just 5 innings but failed to get any big innings put together. They should have their chances again today. The Braves have been swinging the bats better and their 3 game losing streak followed a 4 game winning streak. In these last 7 games Atlanta has averaged nearly 5 runs per game and they've averaged 9 hits per game. They can get some big runs off of Matz and I look for another strong start from Chacin here. This is a contrarian play with a lot of value based on the situation. Braves 4-3 L7 games while Mets just 6-6 L12. They don't merit being this big of a favorite on the road against a starting pitcher who is throwing extremely well right now and will keep them off balance. *10* ATLANTA Money Line +140 |
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04-22-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -105 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 8:40 ET Friday - In the last 38 meetings between these teams only 14 have resulted in an under. The Rockies will have Jonathan Gray on the mound tonight. The right-hander is making his first start this season. His biggest issues at the MLB level have been with consistency and command. This spring he had trouble again as walks were an issue. Last season he struggled badly in outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field as he went winless in five starts. In those five outings, Gray got hit at a .391 clip and compiled an 8.27 ERA. Now he faces a Dodgers that has won 6 of their past 8 games and is averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. The Rockies have won 3 of their last 4 home games and averaged 9 runs per game in those 3 victories. They are happy to be back home after a week-long road trip. Colorado is hitting .303 in their home games this season. This is nothing new as last season the Rockies hit .302 in their home games. In the thin air of Colorado look for Kazmir the Dodgers Scott Kazmir to struggle to get the movement on his pitches that he needs to be successful. He is a soft thrower and he could end up getting walloped on a mild night with the wind expected to be blowing out at Coors Field. After a good first start this season (against a Padres team that couldn't hit anything earlier this season), Kazmir has struggled with 10 earned runs allowed in the 8 innings spanning his past two starts. The Rockies are 6-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The Dodgers went 3-1 to the over the past two seasons when they are on the road and the posted total was 11 or 11.5 runs. Big number on this total tonight but it's absolutely justifiable. *10* OVER in Colorado Friday |
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04-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Toronto has been an "under machine" so far this season and this has been particularly true on the road. However, R.A. Dickey has struggled badly so far this season and the Blue Jays knuckle-baller went 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA in his road starts last year. This season the 41 year old Dickey is off to a rough start and has a 6.75 ERA and has been hit at a .313 clip so far this season. Facing an Orioles team that is hitting .285 so far this season and has plenty of power is not going to help the knuckler. His counterpart tonight is Ubaldo Jimenez. Even though Jimenez hasn't looked "that bad" this season he has been quite hittable. He's given up 14 hits in his last 12 innings of work and he really labored in his most recent start (at Boston) with command of his pitches also being a real issue against the Red Sox. Jimenez is getting hit at a .298 clip so far this season and has walked 11 and allowed 16 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings of work against the Blue Jays. That equates to a 1.53 WHIP and allowing too many baserunners against a powerful Toronto lineup can quickly lead to some "crooked numbers" being put on the scoreboard frame by frame. The fact is that the Jays lineup is getting back into their groove with each win and they have shaken off a slow start to win 6 of their last 9. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Blue Jays have recorded just 17 unders in the last 43 such games. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the Orioles last 8 games with a slugfest breaking out on Wednesday. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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04-20-16 | Mariners v. Indians -125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -115 vs Seattle @ 6:10 ET - Both pitchers in this match-up are off to good starts this season. However, Taijuan Walker will be making his first road start of the season. Last year he was hit at a batting average that was 35 points higher on the road compared to at home. The prior season the disparity was 38 points! Not only is it almost always more "comfortable" for a pitcher to be at home, Walker gets the benefit of pitching in pitcher-friendly Seattle. He's on the road though for this one tonight and I look for him to be out-dueled by the Indians Danny Salazar. The right-hander already has 16 strikeouts and has allowed just 5 hits in his 11 and 1/3 innings of work so far this season. Not only has Salazar looked great on the mound, both of those starts were on the road. Now the righty makes his first home start of the season and Salazar went 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in his home starts last season. Opponents only hit .217 against him in home outings last season. With each victory, the confidence of the Indians is growing and they have now won four of their last six games. Conversely, the Mariners are slumping and have lost 7 of their past 10 games. Seattle is only hitting .231 against righties this season. The Indians are 3-1 in their games against right-handed starters this season and Cleveland is hitting .275 against righties. Look for Seattle to drop to 2-6 in night games this season. *10* CLEVELAND |
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04-19-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - The Astros bullpen has a 6.65 ERA on the road. The Rangers bullpen has an 11.21 ERA at home. With that said, even though yesterday's game got rained out and the Astros have had a day off to rest up and the Rangers have had two days to rest their bullpen, it may not matter! These guys just flat out struggle to record outs and it will be the same story for the starters today as well. The Astros will send Scott Feldman to the mound and he's struggled in his only road start this season. He also got rocked in both starts versus the Rangers last season. Feldman gave up 18 hits in less than 9 innings of work against Texas last season. As for the Rangers starter tonight it will be Derek Holland getting the call. The southpaw has enjoyed some success early this season but it came against teams struggling to score runs. He now faces an Astros team that has a .445 slugging percentage in road games this season. Hollland faced Houston twice in September last season and got hammered in both starts. This one sets up perfectly for both teams to hit the ball well as the Astros got to him for 9 earned runs on 17 hits in less than 11 innings of work last September. The over is 5-1 in Astros road games this season and the over is also 5-1 in Rangers home games this season. The over is 4-0 in Texas home games with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers night games so far on the young season. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-18-16 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play New York Mets Run Line -1.5 +100 @ Philadelphia @ 7:05 ET - Shorter write-ups today due to bad storms here in Texas. The Phillies took two of three from the Mets already this season in New York and that means revenge is on their minds with this next series taking place in Philly. The Phillies got lucky the first time that they did not have to face Noah Syndergaard in the series but there is no such luck this time. He has allowed just 1 earned runs in 13 innings spanning his first two starts and he's also struck out 21 in those outings. The Phillies are still having trouble scoring runs and it certainly won't get any easier tonight. As for the Mets, I expect them to enjoy success against Jerad Eickhoff. They already saw him in the first series and that certainly was a choppy start for the Phillies right-hander. Now New York gets a quick second look at him and don't be fooled by his most recent start. Even though Eickhoff had a great start it was against the punch-less Padres lineup. This one will go much different tonight and it should be a road rout! 5 of the Phillies 7 losses this season have been by 4 runs or more. The Mets, with a huge pitching edge should have no problem taking this one by 2 runs or more. The Mets sticks are finally getting going too with having scored 5 runs or more in three straight games. The Phillies have only scored more than 3 runs TWICE this ENTIRE season. Value on the run line here. *10* NY METS -1.5 |
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04-17-16 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - This total has rise from a 7 to a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning and the move is absolutely correct (in my opinion) in this case. Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Dodgers and is welcomed into the SF/LA rivalry. I don't expect it to go well for him. Even though he's been successful in his first two starts this season, the Dodgers righty (signed to MLB contract after years of baseball in Japan) was fortunate in who he faced in his first two starts. Maeda faced the light-hitting Padres and a Diamondbacks team that is hitting .217 on the road this season. Facing the Giants will prove to be a much tougher test as San Francisco is averaging 5.7 runs per game on the season. Maeda will be opposed by Jeff Samardzija of the Giants tonight. I know the veteran righty is off of a surprisingly strong start against the Rockies but one should never put too much weight into just one outing. In his first start this season he truly had to "sneak by" the Brewers as they did get to him for 8 hits and 3 walks in only 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Samardzija has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in his two career starts against the Dodgers and I look for more struggles here. The Dodgers are 25-16 to the over as a home favorite of -125 to -150 the past three seasons. The Giants are 27-12 to the over as a road dog of +125 to +150 the past three seasons. *10* OVER 7.5 runs in LA Dodgers |
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04-16-16 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Houston vs Detroit @ 7:10 ET - As a general rule, I always at least take a peak at an over the day after a 1-0 pitchers' duel like these teams had yesterday. The fact is the Astros had a lot of scoring opportunities yesterday but simply couldn't cash them in as they hit into three double plays. The fact they induced a lot of walks was certainly a good sign for the Houston lineup but the real key today will be swinging the lumber against a struggling Justin Verlander. The Tigers right-hander threw 116 pitches and didn't even get out of the 5th inning in a bad start against the Pirates. Verlander is having some trouble with his breaking stuff and this is bad news because the former power pitcher has lost a little something off his fastballs of late. Look for the Astros to enjoy plenty of success but they have a pitching concern of their own. I know Chris McHugh bounced back in his 2nd start (after a horrible 1st start against the Yankees) but McHugh did give up 8 hits in 7 innings against the Royals and his stuff was far from electric. The Astros bullpen has a 5.40 ERA on the season while the Tigers pen has a 5.29 ERA in road games so far this year. The Tigers had averaged 6 runs per game on the season before getting shutout in yesterday's game. The over had gone 7-1 in Detroit's first 8 games. They are on a long-term run of 94-65 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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04-15-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Baltimore @ 8:05 ET - With yesterday's over the Orioles have now gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games while the Rangers have gone over the total in 3 straight home games. Both of these teams are swinging the bats well with the Orioles hitting .287 on the season and also averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Rangers got off to a slower start at the plate this season but they've now averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games so, as the weather has been warming, so too have the Texas bats been warming. The Orioles bullpen has been solid this season but the Rangers bullpen has struggled including an ugly 10.80 ERA in their home games this season. Even though the Orioles pen has been solid their starting pitcher is likely to be in trouble early and often tonight. Vance Worley had a "shaky" outing in his first start this season and that was against light-hitting Tampa Bay. He faces a much more potent line-up tonight and the match-up is in a hitter-friendly park. The Rangers will have Martin Perez getting the start and the southpaw gave up 7 hits plus walked 5 while striking out 0 in his 6 inning start against the Angels last week. He was lucky with all the baserunners that he did not allow more damage than the 3 earned runs. He also walked 4 in his first start this season so he's been on the edge of some big innings early this season but he's survived. I believe a confident Baltimore lineup will make him pay and that's why this game should turn into a back-and-forth slugfest. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -121 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -110 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - Great line value with the Red Sox at home at such a small price. I realize that Rick Porcello's numbers in spring training were not good but he truly was experimenting with a few different things. Sure enough, now that the real games are here he was quite solid in his outing against the Blue Jays last week. Not a great start, but respectable. I expect him to be even better at home. Last season after the all star break Porcello had a 3.53 ERA and he'll carry momentum from that right into this season. In his last 3 home starts he allowed just 6 earned runs in over 22 innings of work. The Blue Jays offense is off to a slower start this season and only hitting .224 overall and .213 in road games. Toronto's R.A. Dickey is facing a Red Sox lineup that has produced a .280 batting average so far this season including .287 at home. Dickey is off to a rough start this season as he was not overly effective against a weak Rays lineup in his first start and then Boston roughed him up at home last week. Now Dickey is on the road again where he went 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA last season. The Red Sox are hitting better than the Jays, they have home field edge, and they have the better starting pitcher on the mound. Also, the Red Sox bullpen has an overall 3.38 ERA on the young season while the Blue Jays pen has a 5.62 ERA in road games so far this year. *10* BOSTON -110 |
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04-14-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto vs NY Yankees @ 7:05 ET - You may recall that last season Nathan Eovaldi had to be shutdown early in September due to elbow inflammation. The Yankees right-hander is saying it's not an issue this spring but he surely did not look good in his first start of the season. Eovaldi faced Houston and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. He allowed 2 homers in the start and now faces another powerful lineup in the form of the Blue Jays on Thursday evening. Look for Toronto's lineup to build off of yesterday's solid performance as they scored 7 runs in the win. The Jays may have some trouble keeping the Yankees off the board in this one though. After a good first start against light-hitting Tampa Bay, the Jays Marcus Stroman struggled against a more powerful line-up - Red Sox - last week. Now he takes on a Yankees lineup that has struggled when facing left-handed starters this season but in the games where they've faced a right-handed starter the Yankees are hitting .303 so far this season and they have averaged 7 runs per game in those outings. Stroman has had success in his career against the Yankees but the Yanks should bounce back after scoring only 2 runs yesterday. I definitely like what the Yankees are doing against right-handed pitching this season and Stroman gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus Boston last week. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Yankees games this season. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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04-13-16 | Padres v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -105 vs San Diego @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies certainly aren't World Series contenders but they are playing inspired baseball early this season and they can take advantage of facing a light-hitting foe once again tonight. The Padres put up some big numbers when they visited Coors Field last week but, of course, most all visitors to Colorado pad their offensive stats there. The key to facing the Padres again here is to look at what their team has done in terms of run production in their games not played at Denver. San Diego has scored a TOTAL of 7 runs in 6 games. That is incredible ineptitude on offense. It's not like the Padres are wasting a lot of scoring chances either. They are just not getting many chances because they're not hitting the ball. In those 6 games not played at Coors Field, the Padres have averaged 5 hits per game! Keep in mind some teams are averaging 5 RUNS per game right now so that shows you just how poorly the Padres lineup has been performing. The one weakness that Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff has is that he does struggle a bit against lefties. However, that concern in this start is mitigated by the fact that the Padres best left-handed bat (Yangervis Solarte) is currently on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Eickhoff was a hard luck loser in his first start as the bullpen failed him. That game came on the road but the Phils bullpen has been fantastic in this series now that they are back home - a 0.00 ERA! The Phillies hit Colin Rea hard the last time they saw him and he also has his confidence rattled right now after getting hammered at Coors Field in his first start of the season. The Padres have never faced Eickhoff so there are advantages all over the place in this match-up and that includes home field edge for the Phils who are a bargain at the small price being offered here. The Padres are 67-100 in road games the past 2+ seasons. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-12-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 8:40 ET - As usual the ball will carry well in the thin air at Coors Field Tuesday night. Helping the cause is the fact that the wind may also be switching around during this game and the light breeze may add even a little more help in terms of carry on the ball. Of course the favorable ballpark setting is the reason this total is so high but it certainly is justified. This is especially true based on this pitching match-up. The Giants will have Jeff Samardzija on the mound. He only gave up 3 runs in his start at Milwaukee last week but he was very fortunate as the Brewers were constantly throughout his start. The key factor here is that baserunners at Coors Field are much tougher to strand than at any other ballpark in the league. The Rockies will have Tyler Chatwood on the hill. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery and really hasn't seen significant time on the mound in the majors since 2013. That year he was hit at a .294 clip in his outings at Coors Field. Overall, in his career, he's been hit at a .287 clip at the major league level. The Giants have gotten to him for 9 earned runs in 12 innings the last two times they've faced him. San Francisco hit 3 homers against him the last time they faced Chatwood at Coors Field. The Rockies bullpen has an unsightly 11.37 ERA so this could be a huge night for the Giants sticks in Denver. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game in their 4 games against right-handed starters this season. Look for this one to fly over the total as both teams should get at least 7 runs in what should be an absolute slug-fest. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-10-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 -105 in Seattle vs Oakland @ 4:10 ET - Felix Hernandez is a hurler who I certainly have plenty of respect for but don't be surprised if the A's do some damage against the Mariners ace Sunday afternoon. Hernandez allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Also, in his start prior to those two, the Seattle right-hander allowed 10 hits in 7 innings against Oakland last July. The A's hitters are certainly familiar with him and Oakland already has 20 hits so far in the first two games of this series. Of course the big key to this big play Sunday is that the Mariners sticks should absolutely come back to life here. Seattle should be able to "tee off" against Athletics hurler Chris Bassitt. The righty got roughed up in his first start this season against the White Sox. He also has walked 10 in his last 10 innings of work at Safeco Field. Though he found the plate more in his first start this season (versus the ChiSox) that also resulted in him getting hit hard. Bassitt had some struggles in spring training and they appear to have carried right into the regular season. Also, Bassitt was 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA in his 9 road games (6 starts) last season. In the A's last 96 games with a posted total of 7 or less, only 36 have stayed under the total. The Mariners have struggled at the plate in the first two games of this series but they now face a right-handed starter for the first time since they defeated Colby Lewis and the Rangers 9-5 earlier this week. The M's can pound Bassitt. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-09-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Seattle vs Oakland @ 9:10 ET - The A's Rich Hill struggled mightily in his first start this season. He had significant issues with command of his pitches and that included hitting two batters. Hill had a horrible spring training as he went 0-2 in his 4 starts while walking 15 batters in just 12 innings of work. That spells trouble for how things will go tonight as he proved in the season opener that he's just not "ready" for his return to the starting rotation. Remember this is a guy that has mostly worked out of the bullpen for the past 6 seasons! The Mariners will trot out Nate Karns to the mound for tonight's start. He tends to see a lot of his pitches hit to the outfield and the cavernous setting of Safeco Field surely is a deterrent to home run balls but it also allows for some big hits in the gaps in the outfield. That could be an issue for Karns tonight. As a member of the Rays last season he faced the A's once and took the loss in a game where Oakland certainly didn't have too much trouble connecting against him. Yesterday's game stayed under but the over is still 84-62 long-term in Oakland's divisional games. Also, the over is 111-84 in A's night games the past three seasons. The Mariners had scored 19 runs combined in their two games prior to the tight loss to the Athletics yesterday. Look for them to respond in a huge way at the plate tonight as Hill's struggles continue. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-08-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 +110 in Arizona vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - These teams combined for 20 runs yesterday and I look for another big night at the plate from both clubs tonight. The Cubs are scoring an average of 9.7 runs per game so far this season while the Diamondbacks are scoring a respectable average of 6.3 runs per game on the young season. The pitching match-up tonight is conducive to continued success at the plate for both clubs. The Diamondbacks will have Robbie Ray on the mound. I know the southpaw had a solid spring training but there can be a big difference between the games that don't count and the ones that do and he now faces one of the hottest and most dangerous lineups in baseball in a "real game" tonight. Ray went 1-6 with an ugly 4.88 ERA in his home starts for Arizona last season. He got hit at a .285 clip in those home outings and now faces a Cubs lineup that has produced more runs per game than any other team so far this season. Chicago came into this season with a lot of hype and, so far, they are living up to it. As for the Dbacks, their lineup has been very productive and they should enjoy plenty of success against Jason Hammel of the Cubs. The Diamondbacks hit .270 at home last season and only the Rockies had a higher team batting average at home than Arizona. Chicago's Hammel had a great first half last season but then had a 5.10 ERA after the All Star break. With a 4.63 ERA in spring training this year and some continued struggles to keep the ball down in the zone, I expected some carry over from last season's rough finish for Hammel right into the new season. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Cubs have gone 17-9 to the over. The Dbacks April games are on a 30-20 run to the over. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-07-16 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore vs Minnesota @ 7:05 ET - First two games in this series stayed under the total but the Orioles have left 22 men on base in those two contests. With milder weather today, the wind blowing out, and a pair of "questionable" starting pitchers on the mound the situation is perfect for a big "OVER" to put the wraps on this series. After a surprisingly successful season in his first year with Minnesota in 2014, Phil Hughes reverted to usual form last season. In 2015, Hughes was very hittable (.293 BAA) just like he was in 2013 with the Yankees when he also got hit at a .293 clip. Hughes took advantage of home starts in pitcher-friendly Minnesota but struggled on the road with a 2-6 record and 5.10 ERA last season away from home. Camden Yards is hitter-friendly and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it will be this evening. The only hope for Hughes is that his offense gives him a lot of run support tonight and that is precisely what I expect to happen. The Twins will be teeing off against the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander had a 5.63 ERA after the All Star break last year. Signs of him returning to his first half form were certainly few and far between this spring as Jimenez compiled a 12.27 ERA in his four spring training starts. The Orioles have a solid bullpen but a lot of damage is going to be done before "damage control" can be called upon in this game. *10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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04-05-16 | Mets v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs +100 in Kansas City vs New York Mets @ 4:15 ET - Very mild weather in Kansas City is forecast this afternoon and plus gusty winds will be blowing out to left field for this match-up. This, of course, will aid the hitters a bit and I also feel this pitching match-up is highly conducive to the over. First, a few trends certainly worth mentioning. The past 2+ seasons the over is 21-12 in Mets road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. The over is also 28-17 in Mets inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. Though these teams stayed under the total (just barely I might add) in Sunday's season opener, their World Series match-up last fall saw all 5 games over the total. Chris Young gets the start for the Royals this afternoon and he allowed 12 homers in 48 innings of work in day games last season. With him not being a hard thrower and with the weather helping the hitters today, he could be in for a tough afternoon with some big extra base hits. Young's ERA last season was more than a full run higher at home compared to on the road and lefties hit 83 points higher than righties against Young last season and the Mets lineup will be loaded up from that side of the plate today. The Mets will have hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard on the mound this afternoon. Though he was fantastic at home last season he went an ugly 2-5 with an unimpressive 4.23 ERA in his road starts last year. He was hit at a clip that was 62 points higher on the road compared to at home. The Royals again have a powerful lineup and they are especially dangerous at Kauffman Stadium. *10* OVER 8 runs in Kansas City |
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04-04-16 | Blue Jays v. Rays -107 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -107 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - I had the Jays yesterday and Toronto got the win and certainly I feel they are the better team overall. However, today I will fade the Blue Jays as I feel the Rays have a huge pitching edge in this match-up. Dickey has a history of slow starts including last season when he went 0-3 with a 5.23 ERA in April and the knuckle-baller also had a 6.27 ERA in May. He also has not had a winning record on the road since 2012 and last season he was an ugly 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA away from home. In his road games last season Dickey got hit at a nearly .300 clip. The Rays will have Smyly on the mound today and the southpaw had a fantastic spring. He also got off to a great start last season before being derailed by injury. The fact that he finished last season, after returning from injury by going 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA in September plus the fact that he was stellar in spring training this season has me backing Smyly in his first start of the season. Toronto struck out 16 times in yesterday's game and that could be a bad sign of what is to come for the Blue Jays at the plate today because Smyly is a strikeout pitcher. The southpaw struck out 35 in under 27 innings of work at home last season. In spring training Smyly struck out 21 (while allowing just 10 hits) in 20 innings of work. He's ready to go here and has a fantastic 1.32 ERA and a sparkling 0.44 WHIP in his two career outings against the Blue Jays. Look for the Rays to even up this series with a big home win Monday. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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10-27-15 | New York Mets -106 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* New York Mets Money Line -105 @ Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - To me, it is a big edge that the Mets Matt Harvey has never faced the Royals. That means he is an unknown to many of these Royals hitters and I expect him to have plenty of success against Kansas City tonight. Harvey has registered 29 strikeouts in his 18 and 2/3 innings of work this month and he should be able to add plenty to that dominance tonight as he faces hitters unfamiliar with his offerings. Conversely, Edinson Volquez of the Royals has faced the Mets 9 times in his career and his team has gone 2-7 in those starts as he's compiled a 5.69 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in those starts. Volquez faced the Mets twice last season and gave up 12 hits plus walked 6 in his 11 innings against New York. Look for him to struggle again here as he comes into this start having allowed 4 walks in each of his last three starts. He's continued to 'play with fire' in his recent outings and the confident Mets have the lineup to make him pay. The Mets confidence at the plate has been surging thanks to a four game sweep of the Cubs capped off by scoring 13 runs on 22 hits in their last two games against Chicago. The Mets are 27-13 the last 3 seasons combined when on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 and they get the job done again here as a small road favorite. Play the New York Mets on the money line as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 +110 in Kansas City vs Toronto @ 8 ET - While I certainly have a ton of respect for Blue Jays southpaw David Price, the Royals are just such a strong hitting team. They have a very dangerous lineup that becomes even more of a threat for explosions on offense when they are at home. At Kauffman Stadium, this team can really pound the ball. Overall, in all games, prior to scoring just 1 run in Wednesday's loss, the Royals had won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 8 runs per game in those 8 games. Kansas City did get to Price for 5 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings earlier in this series and a repeat performance would not surprise. Additionally, the Blue Jays certainly should match the Royals run for run in this one. Kansas City sends Yordano Ventura to the mound for this one and he was fortunate to only allow 3 earned runs to the Jays when he was matched up against Price on Saturday. Ventura allowed 8 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings to Toronto and the damage certainly could have been much worse. Even still he has a 6.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and I expect the Jays to hit well here. Toronto is now 4-0 in the post-season when facing elimination and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game in those 4 games. The Jays offense stays hot here but I see a big game from the Royals lineup at home too and that spells O-V-E-R! Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-21-15 | New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - After yesterday's game barely stayed under the total I see great value with today's posted total even though it's higher. With the wind blowing out to right-center this evening, and with this pitching match-up, the higher total is absolutely justified. The Mets are up 3-0 in this series and they are 24-11 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Overall, the over is 47-34 in Mets road games this season. Southpaw Steven Matz gets the start for the Mets this evening. Even though his most recent start only saw him allow 3 earned runs, he did give up 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The Cubs Jason Hammel has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in his last two home starts which have spanned a total of only 7 innings. Look for his struggles at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to continue tonight. With the recent struggles of these two starters combining with favorable weather conditions for the hitters, I expect a high-scoring slugfest here. Play OVER 9 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-20-15 | New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs +117 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +117 vs New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - Essentially a must win game for the Cubs to get back into the series. So far all the Championship Series action in both the AL and NL has been dominated by the home team with a 5-0 mark for the hosts through Monday's action. I look for that trend to continue here as the Cubs hit the ball much better at home and also get a strong performance from Kyle Hendricks on the mound. The right-hander has a 1.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 7 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings of work. In his career against the Mets, Hendricks has given up just 1 earned run on 6 hits in 13 innings of work. Conversely, Jacob deGrom of the Mets has struggled in his career against the Cubs as he's allowed 11 earned runs on 17 hits (including 4 homers) in his 15 and 1/3 innings of work against the Cubs in his career. The Cubs have lost two straight games but previously were 8-1 in the month of October and I look for them to quickly resume their winning ways Tuesday. Play the Chicago Cubs on the money line as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-19-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Toronto vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The OVER is now 10-2 in Johnny Cueto's last 12 starts. He's allowed 43 earned runs in his last 11 starts and he's only averaged 6 innings per start so that equates to about a 6.00 ERA over a period of 11 starts and, off a rare strong outing in his last start, Cueto is likely to get pounded here. He went just 5-9 on the road this season and, who knows what really happens on weekends around the Royals clubhouse, but an interesting tidbit is that the over is 11-4 this season in Monday games for Kansas City! As for the Blue Jays, the over is 7-2 in October games. Also, the over is 4-1 in playoff games for Toronto. Also, the over is 15-8 this season for the Jays when they are playing after a day off the previous day. The Blue Jays are thrilled to be back home and I look for their powerful line up to ride a wave of emotion here and pound Cueto! Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *10* Top Play selection Monday. |
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10-16-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -117 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -117 @ Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - I expect the Blue Jays to ride the wave of emotion from rallying back not only in that crazy 7th inning of Game 5 of their ALDS with Texas, but also the fact that the Blue Jays were down 2-0 in that series but came all the way back by winning 3 straight. Toronto also has the much hotter pitcher going in this match-up. Marco Estrada has been incredible ever since the All Star break. The Jays right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA since the All-Star break and batters are only hitting .183 against him since mid-July also. That is incredible long-term consistency and I look for him to give the Royals hitters fits in Friday's Game 1 of the ALCS. Look for the Jays to enjoy success at the plate against the Royals Edinson Volquez Friday. He is winless in his last 5 starts and has given up 32 hits and walked 14 for a total of 46 baserunners in his last 28 and 2/3 innings of work. Too many baserunners can get you into trouble in no time and this is especially true against a surging and poweful lineup like the Jays possess. The Blue Jays have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 8 games overall and 5.4 runs per game in their last 5 road games. So, even in pressure-filled October, the boys from north of the border continue to get the job done. I look for that to the be the case again tonight as well. Toronto is 17-6 when playing with a day off and the Blue jays are 27-10 in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record. Play Toronto as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-14-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 runs -103 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 and I see great value with the over in this one. It should be a cool but pleasant evening in Kansas City and I expect both pitchers to struggle some here. The Astros Collin McHugh certainly has impressive full season numbers. However, he only recorded 1 strikeout in his first start against the Royals in this series. That means, of course, that Kansas City is not having a problem making contact with is offerings and I expect them to do more damage here in their second shot against him tonight. After being held to two runs in the Game 1 loss, the Royals have responded by taking 2 of the next 3 and scoring 16 runs in the process. Look for their offense to remain hot tonight. The issue for KC here is going to be their own pitching. Johnny Cueto truly has struggled in Royals uniform. Though he pitched "okay" against the Astros in the first match-up, he still is involved in a long-term stretch that has seen him allow 41 earned runs in his last 57 and 1/3 innings. That equates to a 6.44 ERA and I certainly expect him to struggle again here. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in each game in this series and I look for them to get at least that again tonight. With the Royals also hot at the plate, the result should be an easy over. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-12-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7 runs -115 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis @ 6:05 ET - While I have tremendous respect for the season Jake Arrieta has had this year, the wind is going to be blowing out to right in today's game at Wrigley Field. The wind is expected to be quite strong and we've all seen how crazy games can get at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out and this is no matter who is on the mound. With that said, I'll take advantage of the low total here and play this one over the total. The Cardinals also have a solid pitcher on the mound today as Michael Wacha gets the ball. The key here though is the wind and the fact that Wacha has been crushed in his last 3 starts. That included his two road starts in this 3 game stretch where he allowed 2 homers in each of the two road outings and this included a game right here at Wrigley Field on the 19th of last month. Wacha has allowed 4 homers in his last 9 innings against the Cubs. Saturday's game totaled 9 runs and I look for a similar result on Monday. Each of Wacha's last 3 starts went over the total and the Cardinals are 11-5 to the over in his road starts this season. St Louis is 22-11 to the over in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record. Play OVER 7 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Monday. |
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10-10-15 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in St Louis vs Chicago Cubs @ 5:35 ET - Though neither one of these teams have been scoring a lot of runs, this Saturday pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks is winless in four career starts against the Cardinals and he has allowed 7 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings of works versus St Louis. The Cards got a confidence boost at the plate with putting up 4 runs in yesterday's shutout win over the Cubs. Chicago's lineup should get right back on track here. The Cubs had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 6 games against the Cardinals before being shut down in yesterday's game. The Cards Jaime Garcie struggled in his "playoff tune-up outing" last Friday as he gave up 6 hits and walked 2 in only 4 innings of work. That said, look for the Cubs to do some damage at the plate today after being shutout yesterday. The Cubs are 7-3-1 to the over this season when they were shutout in their prior game. The Cards were on a 20-10 run to the over in their last 30 games against teams with a winning record before yesterday's under result. Look for both teams to get at least 3 in this one and that easily pushes this one over the low number. Play OVER 6.5 runs in St Louis as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |
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10-09-15 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -106 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals -106 vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:45 ET - John Lackey of the Cardinals is such a 'gamer'. He's a big game pitcher and ultra competitive. While I certainly have plenty of respect for Jon Lester and the Cubs, I see great line value here with the Cardinals at home in a pick'em price range. Lackey is 3-1 with a miniscule 1.94 ERA in his six career starts against the Cubs. He's allowed a total of just 3 earned runs while striking out 19 in the 21 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Cubbies. Chicago's Lester allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits (including 2 homers) in 6 innings against the Cardinals less than three weeks ago. While the Cubs hitters haven't seen Lackey in more than three months, the Cards hitters will be seeing Lester for the third time in span of just one month. This is a big edge to the Cardinals. While the Cards Lackey is 9-4 at home this season, the Cubs Lester is just 4-3 on the road this season. The Cardinals are 10-1 at home this season with a money line of -100 to -125. The Cubs are 7-15 in their last 22 playoff games. Play St Louis on the money line as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-06-15 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in NY Yankees vs Houston @ 8:05 ET Tuesday - Houston's Dallas Keuchel has had a great season but he's only gone 5-8 on the road and has compiled a 3.71 ERA away from home. He's also making this start on short rest as he started Friday's game at Arizona. In that outing he only recorded 3 strikeouts and the southpaw, on short rest, could have trouble inducing a lot of "swings and misses" in this match-up with the Bronx Bombers. The Yanks have 10 hits per game in their last five home games and their lineup will be ready here for playoff action. However, the concern for the Yanks is that Masahiro Tanaka was rocked by the Astros in his only career start against them. The righty faced Houston back in late June and allowed 6 earned runs in his 5 innings of work as he was vicitimized by three homers. Look for Tanaka to struggle again here. The over is 13-5 the last 3 years in Yankees home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Also, as a home dog of +100 to +125, the over is 5-2 in Yanks games this season. Play OVER 7 runs in the New York Yankees game as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-03-15 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs -120 in Seattle vs Oakland @ 9:10 ET - This total has dropped to a 7.5 which is offering even more value for over players. The A's are sending southpaw Sean Nolin to the mound in this one. The lefty is winless in his last three starts with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.03 WHIP. As you can see, Nolin is clearly not in good form to close out the season and I expect him to struggle again here. He gave up 3 earned runs in 6 innings while walking 3 and only striking out one in his only career start against the Mariners. Seattle's Roenis Elias has given up 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Athletics and Oakland notched a round-tripper in each of those outings. Yesterday's game between these teams stayed under the total but this was first under that the A's have had in their last ten games. Also, each of Nolin's last two starts have gone over the total. The over is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 games against teams with a losing record. The A's are 45-24 to the over in their divisional games this season. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Seattle as a *10 Top Play Saturday. |
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10-02-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Texas vs LA Angels @ 8:05 ET - These teams combined to stay under the total yesterday but, in the Angels 10 prior games they only had 3 unders. As for the Rangers, prior to back to back unders, Texas had been on an 8-1-1 run to the over in their 10 prior games. The Angels Jered Weaver has taken advantage of pitcher-friendly Anaheim during his career as an Angel. As usual, the veteran righty is struggling on the road this season. Weaver has gone 3-10 with a 6.33 ERA in his road starts this season! Before yesterday's rare under, the over was a perfect 5-0 this season in games played in Texas. The Rangers send Martin Perez to the mound this evening. The southpaw has a 4.71 ERA in his home starts this season and that's even with being quite fortunate in his most recent start at Globe Life Park in Arlington. In that game Perez allowed 9 hits but just 1 earned run in his 7 innings of work. The Angels are 42-30 to the over this season when off of a loss. Overall. in road games the last three seasons, the over is 130-102 in Angels games. The Rangers have won three straight and they've had just 10 unders in 27 games when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Play OVER 9 runs in Texas as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-01-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs LA Dodgers @ 3:45 ET - The Dodgers Brett Anderson has been completely crushed in his last two starts. The LA southpaw has given up 11 earned runs on 20 hits in just 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two outings. The Giants will have Tim Hudson on the mound. The veteran right-hander is having some issues with command of his pitches. This has led to him lasting just 11 and 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he's walked 9 batters in that limited work. Hudson allowed two homers to the Dodgers the last time he faced them. Los Angeles' left-hander Anderson has gone 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in his career against the Giants. Seven of Anderson's last nine overall starts have gone over the total. Two of Hudson's last three overall starts have gone over the total. Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco as a *10* Top Play Thursday. |
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09-29-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs +110 in Arizona vs Colorado @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Bergman has been an infrequent starter at the MLB level and when he has gotten the call the results sure haven't been pretty. On Wednesday, for the 2nd time in his last 3 MLB starts, Bergman allowed 7 earned runs in a start that lasted less than 6 innings. In fact, in these two outings combined, Bergman has been hammered for 15 runs (14 earned) on 21 hits in total of just 9 innings of work. Look for the Diamondbacks to pound him at home tonight. As for the Arizona hurler tonight, it will be Robbie Ray getting the call. The southpaw's most recent home start saw him allow 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The Diamondbacks are 1-8 in Ray's 9 home starts this season and he's compiled an ugly 5.20 ERA on the season in his home starts. The over is 4-1 (80%) this season in Rockies games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 11-5 this season in Rockies games after a day off. Both of these clubs were off yesterday and both lineups are fresh and ready to pound the ball tonight. With these two starters on the hill, it should be a big night at the plate for both teams. Play OVER 9 runs in Arizona as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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09-27-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh @ 8:05 PM ET Sunday - How do you get runs off of a guy like Jake Arrieta? One of the key factors is actually as simple as this: confidence at the plate. The Pirates certainly have plenty of that right now. With yesterday's 4-0 win over the Cubs, Pittsburgh has now won 8 straight games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. Arrieta is certainly a tough hurler but the Pirates will be helped by the fact they are seeing him for the third time in a span of eight weeks. Of course the big key to this play on the over is the expectation that Pittsburgh's AJ Burnett will get absolutely pounded in this one. The veteran righty has allowed 19 baserunners in the 11 innings that have spanned his last two starts. He's been quite fortunate in that he only allowed a total of 4 earned runs in these two outings. This did include a start against the Cubs as well so they are getting a quick "second look" at him here in this one. Look for the Cubs to bounce back off of the shutout loss. The Cubbies are 7-2-1 to the over this season when they are off of a shutout defeat. Play OVER 7 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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09-26-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
*10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado - The Rockies are a big home dog here. As a home dog of +150 to +175 this season, the over is a PERFECT 5-0 in Colorado games. Kyle Kendrick gets the start for the Rockies tonight. His most recent start was also at home and he allowed FOUR homers in just four innings of work. Coors Field has certainly not been kind to Kendrick this season as the righty has given up 20 homers in his 12 home starts while compiling UGLY numbers - a 2-6 record and a 7.35 ERA. The Dodgers Brett Anderson will be making just his 2nd career start here. In the first one he was fortunate as he did not allow an earned run despite giving up 6 hits in his 5 innings of work. The southpaw is facing a Rockies team that has produced a .300 batting average and a .486 slugging percentage in home games this season. Colorado has been scoring just fine at home but they've allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Rockies bullpen ERA is 5.18 in home games this season while the Dodgers bring a 4.94 bullpen ERA in road games this season into tonight's game. The bullpens suprising burned us last night with some decent late innning work. I don't expect a repeat of that tonight and I look for both of these starters to get pounded at hitter-friendly Coors Field. |
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09-25-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Oakland A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Total of the Month OVER 7 or 7.5 runs in Oakland vs San Francisco @ 10 ET Friday - This is a fantastic line value spot because we get an over at just 7 or 7.5 runs because of the numbers Sonny Gray has put up all season. The fact is that the Oakland right-hander is struggling badly now and there is no reason to expect him to turn that around here. Gray has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits in his last 8 and 1/3 innings of work. The A's hurler also has walked 8 in those two outings and is allowing 2 baserunners per inning in his last two starts as issues with command of his pitches continue to plague him. He won't be the only struggling hurler tonight either. He'll be opposed by Mike Leake. The Giants hurler has been awful of late with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP in his last three starts. Like Gray, he has had some trouble recently with location of pitches and, when he does find the plate, he's getting hit hard. The over is 8-3 in Oakland's last 11 games. The over is 8-4 in the Giants last 12 games. The A's, in night games, are 55-35 to the over this season. The Giants are 43-29 to the over in road games this year. This is Rickenbach's MLB *10* Total of the Month for September. |
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09-25-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 or 11.5 runs in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 8 ET Friday - Bolsinger has been struggling of late for the Dodgers. The right-hander has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Too many baserunners allowed and he is paying the price for sure. A start at Coors Field is unlikely to help matters for the hurler as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start at Colorado. The way he's struggling in recent outings, Bolsinger is likely to have even more unflattering results the second time around. The only good news for the Dodgers here is they certainly can be hopeful of outhitting the Rockies here. The Dodgers lineup should have no trouble with the offerings of Hale. The Colorado right-hander gave up 3 homers to the Dodgers the last time he faced them (in June) and he was lucky the damage wasn't worse than the 4 earned runs he allowed in that game. Hale has a 6.32 ERA on the season and the over is 5-2 in his home starts this year. Both starters get pummeled here and Rockies bullpen is awful at home and the Dodgers bullpen is awful on the road and that is why the OVER in Colorado is a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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09-23-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Kansas City vs Seattle @ 8:10 ET - The Mariners have averaged 10 hits per game in their last 7 games as the M's offense exploded again in their 11 to 2 win at Kansas City last night. The Mariners have recorded just three unders in their last nine games and there is no reason to expect that trend to change right now. The Mariners should enjoy plenty of success tonight against Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura. He has struggled lately with 24 hits allowed in his last 16 innings of work. Now he must deal with a Seattle team that has exploded for 20 runs in their last two games. Thats' a tough test for Ventura. He's also walked 10 in those 16 innings of work. So command and control issues hvae led to Ventura missing the plate too frequently and, when he has found the plate, he's been getting hit far too frequently as evidenced by the numbers above. As for Mariners starter Roenis Elias, he's given up 13 runs (11 earned) in his last 15 and 1/3 innings against the Royals. The KC lineup has had his number and they will again here. The over is 40-28 in Mariners games this season when they are off of a win. The over is 46-28 in Royals games this season against teams with a losing record. The over is also 14-5-1 in Kansas City games so far this month. The Royals had averaged 6.75 runs per game in their last 4 games before they were held to just two runs last night. They'll get right back on track tonight. Play OVER 8 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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09-22-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Jose Quintana has only allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Tigers. However, he has been fortunate - to say the least! - as he's allowed 20 hits in the 13 innings spanning those two starts against Detroit. The Tigers crush lefties as a general rule and I expect them to bounce back tonight at the plate after three straight disappointing peformances at the plate in their last three games. The issue for Detroit tonight will be their own pitching situation as southpaw Daniel Norris is likely to struggle. The lefty is winless in his three home starts this season and has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in those outings. Also, none of his last four starts overall have stayed under the total and he's allowed 13 earned runs in just 17 and 2/3 innings of work spanning those four starts. As a home dog of +100 to +125 the over is 14-5 in Detroit games this season. The over is 22-9 in the White Sox last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 45-26 this season in Tigers games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and I see great value with this total in this range today. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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09-21-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 8:40 PM ET - The Pirates are coming off of a series at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium and yet they are still on a 9-4 run to the over in their last 13 games. Now their venue switches to hitter-friendly Coors Field and I look for the Pittsburgh lumber to quickly return to its hot-hitting ways. The Rockies are coming off of a 3 game set with the Padres in Denver where all 3 games went over the total. In fact, Colorado is 6-2 to the over in their last 8 home games. Tonight's weather is going to be beautiful in Denver and the pitching match-up is certainly conducive to an over as well. The Rockies Jon Gray takes the mound at home tonight where all four of his starts have gone over the total. Part of the reason for this 4-0 mark to the over is that Gray has a 7.87 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his four starts at Coors Field this season. Gray also faced the Pirates less than a month ago in Pittsburgh and he was hit hard! The good news for Rockies fans tonight is that Colorado should be able to match the Pirates run for run tonight. Pittsburgh is sending the veteran AJ Burnett to the mound tonight and the right-hander is winless in his last three starts with a 7.37 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. In his last start in Colorado, Burnett was rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. In his most recent road start this season, the righty allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. He gets hammered again here. Play OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado as a *10 Top Play Monday. |
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09-21-15 | Chicago White Sox - Game #2 v. Detroit Tigers - Game #2 OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET Monday - While it is true that the White Sox have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, Randy Wolf is honestly at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to southpaws pitching in the bigs right now. No disrespect is intended to the veteran hurler but the fact is that the numbers do not lie. Wolf is winless in his last three starts and the deepest he worked in any of those starts was just 4 and 1/3 innings! Wolf's ERA in this three start stretch is an 11.45 with an ugly WHIP of 2.46 in these three outings. That means he's giving up an average of 10 baserunners via walks and hits every four innings! In the 2nd game of this day/night double header Monday, look for his struggles to continue. Wolf has allowed 10 earned runs in the 8 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the White Sox. He'll be in trouble again early and often in this one. Wolf will be opposed by Erik Johnson this evening. The White Sox hurler has been rocked for 16 hits in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his two career starts against the Tigers. Overall, Johnson comes into this start with 8 walks and 10 hits for 18 baserunners in his last 11 innings of work since the 11th of the month. Look for him to get rocked again here. 8 of 12 games between these teams have gone over the total this year. In games played at Detroit the over is 5-1 this season and on a long-term 17-7 run the last 3 years! After their 10-1 loss yesterday, the over is 7-1-1 in the Tigers last 9 games. For the White Sox, the over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games. Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit in GAME TWO of the DH Monday. |
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09-20-15 | New York Yankees v. New York Mets OVER 7 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 112 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in New York Mets vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET Sunday - Before yesterday's shutout loss the Mets were 9-2 in their last 11 games and had scored at least 5 runs in 8 of those 11 games. The Yankees, with their 5-0 win yesterday, have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. That said, there is great value with such a low total posted on this game. CC Sabathia has allowed 18 hits in his last 10 and 2/3 innings of work against the Mets. Included in that hit barrage is 3 round-trippers in his most recent start against the Mets. As for the Mets Matt Harvey, he's been quite hittable in his recent outings with 11 earned runs allowed on 17 hits in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work. There is controversy surrounding the fact that Harvey may have been overused and that "tired arm" is catching up to him. Look for him to get hit hard once again today. The over is 15-8 in Yankees games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. The over is 15-9 in the Mets Sunday games this season. Play OVER 7 runs in the New York Mets game as a *10* Top Play. |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in San Francisco vs Arizona @ 4:05 ET - The Giants, amazingly, have been shutout in each of the first two games of this series. That is highly unlikely to happen again today. Arizona is sending Jeremy Hellickson to the mound this afternoon. This will be his 2nd start since returning from a left hamstring strain. His first start was very ugly as he allowed 5 runs (3 earned) in just one inning of work. It was clear that the injury is on his mind a little bit and possibly effecting the way he strides toward the plate. I look for that to again be an issue today. As for the Giants hurler today it's the veteran Tim Hudson who gets the call. The right-hander is making his third start since returning from the disabled list. He had a solid start against the Dbacks in his first start back but they now get a quick "second look" at him today. Hudson did struggled with his command against the Reds in his most recent start and that could be an issue again today against Arizona. The over was 6-0 in the Giants last six games before their shutout losses in each of the first two games of this series resulted in unders. The over is 12-6 this season in Giants games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 36-26 this season in Dbacks games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Play OVER 8 in San Francisco as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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09-19-15 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 113 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 or 11 runs in Colorado vs San Diego @ 8:10 ET - The Padres Robbie Erlin has been in the minors all season long. He last pitched in the majors in 2014 before an elbow injury forced him to miss three months. This is a tough assignment for the southpaw as he makes his first start at the MLB level in 2015 at Coors Field of all places. It's the most hitter-friendly venue in the league and the lefty wasn't exactly throwing well in the minors this season. In fact, Erlin was 7-6 with a 5.60 ERA in his 24 minor league starts at Triple A El Paso this season. He better hope for a lot of run support today and, actually, I do expect him to get that. The Padres should pound the Rockies Yohan Flande in this one. The lefty has given up 10 runs on 14 hits in just 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The southpaw now must deal with a Padres team that has got to him for 8 earned runs in just 10 innings of work in his last two starts against them. By the way, Erlin has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his 3 career starts agianst the Rockies. Both pitchers get pounded here. The over is 12-5 in Padres games in the month of September. The over is 14-8 in Rockies home games where they are priced between -100 and -125. Play OVER 10.5 or 11 runs in Colorada as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas vs Seattle @ 8:05 ET - Vidal Nuno has struggled on the road this season. The southpaw is winless in his three road starts this season and he's compiled a 7.71 ERA in those outings and all three games went over the total. Look for another over on the road today. After Texas was held to just one run in yesterday's game, their offense will get right back on track today. The Rangers, before yesterday's loss, had won 5 straight games and had scored an average of 9 runs per contest during this hot streak. Nuno will provide the perfect remedy to get their sticks back on track after yesterday's rare "off night". The Mariners also should hit the ball well here as they're getting to see the Rangers Cole Hamels for the fourth time already since he moved to the AL from the NL Phllies. Hamels hasn't exactly mowed the Mariners down the first three times either. Against Seattle, the Rangers southpaw has allowed 11 earned runs on 23 hits in 20 innings of work. This equates to a 4.95 ERA and the Mariners are seeing him for the 4th time in a span of only 9 weeks! Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas as *10* Top Play selection Saturday. |
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09-18-15 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 4-7 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 or 11 runs in Colorado vs San Diego @ 8:40 ET - These teams are 5-2-1 to the over in their last 8 meetings. With this pitching match-up tonight and beautiful weather expected at Coors Field this evening this should be another high-scoring slugfest. The Padres Ian Kennedy has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in his last two starts and those outings have totaled just 9 and 2/3 innings of work. The Rockies send Chad Bettis to the mound tonight and he is off of a solid start at Seattle but in his two prior starts, both at home, allowed 8 earned runs on 19 hits in his last 10 and 1/3 innings of work. The Padres are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games. San Diego is also 14-5 to the over this season when they are on the road as a small favorite (money line range up to -125). The Padres had an off day yesterday but they had a victory the game before and they are 42-24 to the over this season when off of a win in their prior game. The over is also a sparkling 67-39 in their games against right-handed starters this season. The Rockies, like the Padres, were also not in action yesterday but they were shutout 2-0 on Wednesday and Colorado is 49-33 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. Play OVER 10.5 or 11 runs in Colorado as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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09-18-15 | St. Louis Cardinals +101 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line +101 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET Friday - The Cardinals come into this series having won 4 straight (and 5 of their last 6) on the road. They are arguably the best team in baseball and I won't hesitate to step in with the Cards in a rare underdog role on Friday. These teams recently met and these pitchers actually matched up in one of the games in that series. It was all the Cubs and Haren in that game as the Cardinals and Lynn faltered. Historically when this happens and then there is a rematch soon after, the roles often do reverse and I expect the Cubs and Haren to be on the wrong end of the beating this afternoon. Haren got rocked by the league-worst Phillies in his most recent start and that is certainly not a good sign for Cubs fans. As for Lynn, he has allowed just 3 earned runs on 10 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two road starts. Look for another big effort away from home this afternoon. Play St Louis on the money line as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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09-17-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay vs Baltimore @ 7:10 ET - The Rays Matt Moore gave up four homers in his most recent start and, as you can see from that effort, he is certainly showing no signs of turning anything around in what has been an absolutely dreadful season for the southpaw. He is 1-4 with an 8.42 ERA on the year and the Rays have recorded only one under in his 8 starts this season. Even more concerning for Moore today is the fact that he has given up 14 runs (13 earned) in his last two starts against the Orioles and those outings spanned just ten innings. More struggles on tap again today as the O's come into this game on a 5-1 run to the over. The Rays offense should also enjoy a big game tonight as Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss yesterday. In their nine prior games the Rays had recorded double digits in hits 6 times and their offense will get right back on track against the Orioles Chris Tilman. It's been an "up and down" season for the Baltimore right-hander this year and he's certainly in a down cycle again now. He has lost four straight games and has an ugly 11.77 ERA in his last three starts. Tillman has allowed at least 5 earned runs in two of his last 3 starts against the Rays. Both of those starts were this season and Tillman was unable to complete 5 innings in either start. The over is 10-4 in the Orioles games so far this month. Play OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay as a *10* Top Play Thursday. |
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09-16-15 | Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland @ 8:10 ET - There were 23 runs scored in yesterday's contest and I look for another wild one today in Chicago - although the scoring should certainly be a little more balanced between the clubs today. The White Sox are 19-6 to the over in their last 25 games against teams with a losing record. The ChiSox will have Erik Johnson on the mound tonight and he has walked 9 batters in his last 6 and 2/3 innings of work at home. His road start in the middle of these two home outings saw him allow 3 homers in a six inning stint. As you can see, Johnson is either wild or - when he does find the plate - he's giving up some big bombs. The A's are very confident at the plate right now as they've averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. The over is also a red hot 8-3-1 in the ChiSox last 12 games. Their hot hitting won't be stopped by the A's Cody Martin tonight. The young right-hander will be making just his 2nd big league start tonight and the first one saw him get crushed for 5 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He recently came to Oakland from the Braves and he worked out of the bullpen in Atlanta. Martin's results with the Braves were not impressive as he compiled a 5.40 ERA and was hit hard (at a .296 clip) with Atlanta. The over is 51-34 in Athletics' night games this season. The over is 4-1 (80%) in meetings between these clubs this year. Play OVER 8.5 or 9 runs in the Chicago White Sox game as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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09-16-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -115 in Baltimore vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's 6-5 Orioles win flew over the total and the over is now 24-8 in Boston's last 32 games against teams with a losing record. After a big night at the plate last night for the O's, look for a repeat perfomance here as the Orioles have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 6 games and Baltimore is on a 6-1 run in their last 7 games. The Red Sox have now lost two straight games but they had previously won 7 of their last 9 and they have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 12 games. The over is 8-4 in those 12 games for Boston. The over is 9-4 in Baltimore's 13 games in the month of September. The Orioles will have Mike Wright on the hill tonight. He's made two starts since returning to the bigs this month. They have not been strong outings! Wright has allowed 7 earned on 11 hits (including 3 homers) in just 9 innings of work. Overall, Wright is winless with a 9.58 ERA in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by southpaw Henry Owens of the Red Sox tonight. The left-hander is walking too many batters and is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his last three outings. He's allowed 2 baserunners per inning during this 3 start stretch and he now faces an Orioles lineup filled with talented hitters. One final important key here is that both teams used a lot of bullpen in last night's 13-inning affair and neither one of today's starting pitchers has shown the ability to work deep into games at this level. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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09-15-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Minnesota vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - Despite giving up 7 runs yesterday the Tigers game stayed under the total but they are 23-8 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, the over is 20-11 in Detroit road games when the Tigers are in an underdog price range of +125 to +175. Look for the trend of overs to resume tonight. Yesterday's under was just the 4th that Detroit has had in their 13 games so far this month. As for the Twins, the over is 7-4-1 in Hughes' 12 home starts this season. Phil Hughes gets the ball tonight for Minnesota for his first start since early August...he was 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts prior to going on the disabled list. Hughes has made 3 starts against the Tigers this season and he has gone 1-2 with 11 earned runs allowed on 23 hits (including 3 homers) given up in just 16 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Alfredo Simon tonight. The last time Simon faced the Twins was only two months ago and he got rocked for 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits in just 2 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 10-4 in Simon's road starts this season as he has compiled an unsightly 6.18 ERA away from home this season. Look for more struggles for each of these right-handers tonight. One last note, the Tigers bullpen ERA on the road this season is an ugly 5.48 so far on the year. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Minnesota as a *10* Top Play. |
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09-14-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Cleveland vs Kansas City @ 7:10 ET - The Indians send Carlos Carrasco to the mound tonight and he struggled in his first start after coming off the disabled list. He's been struggling with his shoulder and it showed again on Tuesday as the right-hander lasted less than 3 innings against the White Sox. Carrasco gave up 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work and the ChiSox even got to him for two homers in the short stint. Carrasco just isn't right at the present time and I look for him to struggle again as the Indians host the Royals tonight. Kansas City is 8-3-1 to the over so far this month. Cleveland is a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last 5 games. The Indians should have no trouble with the offerings of the Royals Edinson Volquez tonight. The Royals right-hander has made five starts against the Indians so far in his career. Not a single one stayed under the total and Volquez compiled an unsightly 9.31 ERA in tihese outings. Look for him to get rocked again here. He has given up 8 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his two most recent starts heading into this divisional match-up tonight. It will be beautiful weather in Cleveland tonight and the over is 40-26 in their home games this season. The over is 41-27 in Royals games against teams with a losing record this season. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play Monday. |
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09-13-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Baltimore vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - Johnny Cueto has lost four straight for the Royals. He's allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning during this rough stretch which has been the worst of his career. He's compiled a 9.45 ERA during this four game stretch. One of these four outings was against the Orioles and Cueto got rocked for 6 earned runs on 8 hits (including 3 homers) in just 5 innings of work against Baltimore. Look for more of the same tonight. Cueto was opposed by Wei-Yin Chen in that start and he'll face him again tonight. Chen is also struggling as he's given up a pair of homers in each of his past two starts and this has helped lead to 10 runs (9 earned) on 18 hits in his last 9 and 2/3 innings of work. In his start prior to these dreadful two outings, Chen was also hit hard. That was the start against Kansas City where he was fortunate to allow only 3 earned runs as he did get rocked for 10 hits in less than 7 innings of work. Each of Chen's last 3 starts have gone over the total and only 2 unders have been recorded in his last 9 starts. Each of Cueto's last 5 starts have gone over the total. The over is 7-3-1 in the Royals last 11 games and 8-3 in the Orioles last 11 games. Play OVER 8 runs in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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09-11-15 | Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Texas vs Oakland @ 8:05 ET - Off back to back shutout losses in Seattle, the Rangers are happy to be back home where they have won 13 of their last 16 games. Texas averaged 5.4 runs per game at home in August and this is their first home game in September. The Rangers potent offense will get right back on track at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The A's are 38-19 to the over in divisional match-ups this season and they send a struggling Jesse Chavez to the mound tonight. The Oakland right-hander is 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA and a 2.57 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not surprisingly, all 3 games went over the total. Look for another slugfest today as the Rangers Colby Lewis is also in poor current form. The Texas right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.62 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Opponents have hit .343 against him during this stretch. Lewis allowed 2 homers in his most recent home start and Chavez has allowed at least one homer in 8 consecutive starts. The over is an incredible 11-1-1 in the 13 home starts Lewis has made this season. The A's have stayed under the total just twice in their last ten games. Oakland is averaging 5.6 runs per game during this 10 game stretch and Lewis is the perfect match-up to keep the hot hitting going. Play OVER 9.5 runs in Texas as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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09-10-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 7:10 ET - The Indians 6-4 victory over the White Sox in Chicago flew over the total with plenty of home runs leading the way. The Tigers are off of an 8-0 home loss to the Rays yesterday that stayed under the total and one can fully expect the Detroit sticks to get back on track after that poor performance at the plate. The Tigers had scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their 8 prior games before that horrible effort against Tampa Bay. Detroit should enjoy much more success at the plate against Danny Salazar of the Indians tonight. Though Salazar has great overall numbers on the season, he has been roughed up in recent starts as evidenced by his 7.04 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three outings. Salazar also is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Tigers and he's been particularly rocked in each of the last two. He'll be opposed by Alfredo Simon of Detrotit tonight. Though the right-hander has enjoyed success against the Indians this season, his current form suggests that will quickly come to an end tonight. Simon has a 7.72 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in his last three starts. The over is 9-4 in his road starts this season as Simon has struggled (6.13 ERA) away from home all year. The over is 5-0 in Detroit's last 5 road games. The over is 9-2 in the Indians last 11 home games. Play OVER 8 runs in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play Thursday. |
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09-09-15 | Cleveland Indians -107 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -107 @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Though his season got a late start, Josh Tomlin has simply been amazing for the Indians this year. He's gone 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA since returning to the Tribe and he's held opponents to a .173 batting average. The White Sox have seen him only one time since the 2012 season and Tomlin struck out 8 batters in just 5 innings of work. It's a big edge for the pitcher when the opponent hasn't seen much of him in recent years. Tomlin has simply been very crafty this season and is doing a great job of keeping hitters off balance. This continued in his most recent start as he held the powerful Tigers to just one run on only 4 hits in a 9 inning complete game gem at Detroit last week! Tomlin stays hot on the hill here while I expect Jeff Samardzija's recent struggles to continue against Cleveland. The White Sox right-hander has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his 10 starts since the All Star break. Samardzija lost all six of his August starts and he's truly not shown any signs of turning things around. Though Chicago got the win yesterday, they had lost 4 of their 6 previous home games and the ChiSox were shutout in two of those games and held to just 2 runs in another game. Tomlin is completely capable of another dominant performance on the road here. He should get plenty of run support as the Indians are getting their third look at Samardzija this season and this is the first time they've seen him since his awful late season swoon began. Big edges for the Indians here. Play Cleveland on the money line as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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09-09-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit vs Tampa Bay @ 7:05 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out in Detroit this evening. While I certainly have a ton of respect for the Rays Jake Odorizzi, he's coming off of a start where he allowed 3 homers to the Bronx Bombers in New York and now he must face the Tigers powerful lineup in Detroit on a night when the wind is expected to be blowing out to right center. It's a good match-up for some big power to come from each of these lineups. Odorizzi has given up 18 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 29 and 1/3 innings of work. That equates to a 5.52 ERA and shows that Odorizzi certainly hasn't been as dominant lately as he was earlier this season. As for the Tigers hurler tonight, it will be Kyle Lobstein who takes to the mound. The Detroit southpaw is just coming back from the disabled list and he got rocked in his first start back. Lobstein gave up 6 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. On the season, the Tigers lefty has a 1-5 mark with a 6.19 ERA in his home starts. Tampa Bay has pounded southpaw starters this season as the Rays have a stellar .441 slugging percentage in games against left-handed starting pitchers. The over is 7-2-1 in the Tigers last 10 games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Rays last 16 games. Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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09-08-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Arizona vs San Francisco @ 9:40 ET - This was the only game on the card yesterday where both teams produced double digits in hits and yet the game stayed under the total. These teams combined for 22 hits and yet the game painstakingly stayed under the total as my clients and I know. It was my lone blemish on a four play card and I will get my revenge today. It's a perfect pitching match-up to again see plenty of hits but this time look for more of the opportunities to be cashed in. The Giants send Tim Hudson to the mound. The veteran right-hander is making his first starts since July 26th and he had been removed from the rotation for good reason. He's struggled this season and the only reason he's coming back in for this start is because Ryan Vogelsong has struggled so badly for the Giants. As for Hudson, he's compiled a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts, a 5.50 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP on the road this season, and he's allowed 7 homers in his 7 road starts. Hudson's counterpart tonight is the Dbacks Chase Anderson. The Arizona right-hander got absolutely crushed by the Giants lineup in his most recent start against them (in July) with 7 earned runs allowed on 10 hits in less than 4 innings of work. By the way, Hudson's most recent start against Arizona was earlier this season and he was rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Both hurlers are likely to get knocked around here as Anderson was lucky to only give up 3 earned runs in his most recent start considering he was rocked for 8 hits in just 5 innings of work. The over is 41-26 in Giants road games this season. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Arizona as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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09-07-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia vs Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Aaron Harang is having an awful season and he's showing no signs of turning things around. After back to back starts where he's combined to give up 9 earned runs on 14 hits (including 4 homers) in less than 11 innings of work, Harang is now 5-14 with a 4.89 ERA on the season. The Braves Williams Perez is also having an awful time on the mound. He's compiled a 14.29 ERA and a 2.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts. On the season Perez has a 5.65 ERA. The Atlanta right-hander was absolutely awful in his only career start against the Phillies and that was only a little over 5 weeks ago so there is no reason Philadelphia shouldn't be able to pound him once again today! The over is 10-4-1 in the Braves last 15 games. The over is 13-5-1 in the Phillies last 19 games. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 starts Perez has made for Atlanta. The over is 5-2 in Harang's last 7 starts at home. At home with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 15-7 in Phillies games this season. Also, the Braves have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and they've particularly struggled on the road this season. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play Monday. |
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09-06-15 | Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in LA Angels vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - Colby Lewis of the Rangers is 6-10 with a 5.83 ERA in his career starts against the Angels. Lewis comes into this start having been crushed in each of his last two starts. The Rangers right-hander has given up 11 runs (9 earned) in his last 10 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two starts and he took the loss in each outing. His struggles continue here against a team whom truly has been a nemesis for him. The Angels have some pitching concerns of their own here as they send Hector Santiago to the mound in this one. The LAA southpaw is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 10.12 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP. This match-up truly has "over" written all "over" it! The Angels are 38-26 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. The Rangers are riding high with confidence as they have won 7 of their last 9 games. That means plenty of big hits at the plate today with two struggling hurlers on the mound. Play OVER 8 runs in the LA Angels game as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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09-06-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Kansas City vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 ET - Johnny Cueto certainly is a big name pitcher but the results haven't lived up to the billing for the Royals right-hander of late. Cueto is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in his last 3 starts! He's been getting absolutely pounded and he's unlikely to turn things around today against a White Sox team that he's compiled a 6.23 ERA against in his career. The only good news for Cueto is that he should get plenty of run support here. The Royals sticks will be teeing off against Erik Johnson of the White Sox. He has a 9.00 ERA in his career against Kansas City and Johnson also is making his first big league start since April of last year. Pitching at Kauffman Stadium is certainly not a desirable place to make your first start at this level after a long time away. The Royals are one of the best home hitting teams in the majors and I look for them to pound him early and often in this one. The ChiSox were on a 5-1 run to the over before yesterday's under. The Royals were on a 4-0 run to the over before yesterday's game stayed under the total. The big hitting resumes here. Play OVER 8 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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09-05-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's 2-1 final was certainly an atypical result in hitter-friendly Colorado. That said, look for the big sticks to resume the big hitting tonight. The Rockies had scored 32 runs in their first 5 games of this homestand before being held to just two runs last night. Colorado should have no trouble with the offerings of Jake Peavy tonight. The Giants right-hander has a 4.81 ERA away from home this season and he's compiled a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts overall. Peavy has been rocked for 9 earned runs on 15 hits (including 2 homers) in his last two starts (a combined 12 innings) at Coors Field. Chad Bettis gets the start for the Rockies tonight and he's compiled a 5.28 ERA in his home starts this season. After his last outing, he's fortunate that home ERA didn't balloon even higher! Bettis gave up just 4 earned runs to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start but they pounded out 11 hits in just 6 innings against him. Unlike Arizona, San Francisco will cash in those types of opportunities tonight and they'll certainly have plenty of them. The Giants are 40-24 to the over in road games this season. San Franicsco is 15-7 to the over in Saturday gams this season. The over is 35-25 in Giants games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 35-22 in Rockies games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is 32-21 in Colorado games against divisional foes this season. The over is 13-8 this season in Rockies home games where they are in a price range of -100 up to -125. Play OVER 11 runs in Colorado as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |