Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-21-18 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game ended up a low-scoring pitchers duel. However, there is reason to believe both of these starters get a little roughed up on Saturday afternoon. This game starts at 4:15 local time and the wind (although not strong) will be blowing out toward center field. The point being the ball does carry better in day games in Anaheim and the weather is favorable for it Saturday afternoon with very warm weather in the forecast. Though Justin Verlander has great history versus the Angels, he did get roughed up in his final start before the All Star break as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. That was the 3rd time in his last 5 starts that Verlander has allowed 4 earned runs or more. The over is 6-2-1 in Verlander's last 9 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in Nick Tropeano's last 5 starts. The Angels right-hander has a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts and has been rocked for 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Tropeano has a 6.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros and Houston was on a 5-1 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring win. Tropeano had been on the DL due inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He'll be rusty here, Verlander's recent trend of giving up big hits will continue, and this one should fly over the total on a hitter-friendly afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game |
|||||||
07-21-18 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:10 ET - After yesterday's 1-0 pitchers duel most will be enticed to take the under 9.5 in this one Saturday but the pitching match-up should prove to be absolutely perfect for a slugfest here. The Tigers, overall, are certainly not a great team but they are hitting .268 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them among the top five teams in the majors against southpaw hurlers. The Red Sox are starting lefty Brian Johnson here and he gave up 3 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced Detroit last season. The Tigers counter with Michael Fiers in this one. I am well aware of the fact that he has had some success versus Boston in the past. However, this Red Sox team was scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's 1-0 win. Also, even including yesterday's lackluster performance at the plate, the BoSox are hitting .295 in the month of July which ranks them #1 in the AL. In June, Boston ranked #2 in the AL for batting average and in May their .481 slugging percentage ranked them #2 out of all 30 MLB teams. The point is that a bounce back is likely after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The Red Sox have now stayed under in 3 straight games but only 3 times this entire season have they had an "under" streak go more than 3 games. This streak gets snapped Saturday! Fiers final start before the All Star break saw him allow "only" 3 earned runs against the Astros but they got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings and he struck out only 2. He won't be fooling the bats of Boston either! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
07-20-18 | Mets +170 v. Yankees | Top | 7-5 | Win | 170 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play New York Mets Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Mets Noah Syndergaard rates a huge edge on the mound over the Yankees Domingo German. Syndergaard is 5-1 with a 2.97 ERA this season while German is 2-4 with a 5.97 ERA on the year. The Yankees German allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. Although that one was on the road, note that he allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent home start. As for Syndergaard, he is a strikeout pitcher and that is the type of pitcher known to give the slugging Yankees problems. The Yanks haven't seen him since 3 years ago while the Mets just faced German a month ago. This is certainly an edge for the Mets hitters over the Yankees hitters. As a result of the Mets having a bad first half of the season while the Yankees were solid, the markets jumped all over the Yanks when they opened up in the -130 range as a small home favorite in this one. The line has been driven up all morning long and there is now superb line value on the big dog Mets who rate a massive starting pitching edge here. The Yankees are a mediocre 10-8 their last 18 starts. The Mets are off of a loss but had gone 7-6 their past 13 games. The point is that, while that may not be all that impressive, keep in mind we're getting a huge plus money payback in this one plus have the pitching edge. The Yankees are only 5-5 in German's last 10 starts while the Mets are 8-4 in Syndergaard's dozen starts this season. Also, in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Mets are 9-5 (+$6,000) this season! The Yankees are 33-38 (-$15,500) in Friday games since the start of the 2016 season. 10* NEW YORK METS |
|||||||
07-20-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy has struggled since returning from the disabled list. The Baltimore right-hander has gone 0-2 with 11 runs (10 earned) given up in 7 and 1/3 innings and he has walked as many as he has struck out in those two outings. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has also struggled in back to back starts as he has been rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two outings. The Orioles have been hitting a little better of late and they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Blue Jays have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winner with the low total posted on this game. Yes Manny Machado is now a Dodger and not an Oriole but this lineup still has some pop. This is particularly true against a struggling pitcher like Gaviglio. The over is 4-2 in Gaviglio's starts where he is opposed by a right-handed starter this season. The over is 13-7 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Orioles bullpen is getting hit at a .269 clip this season which ranks them 28th in the majors and the Blue Jays (.254) rank 22nd out of the 30 teams. In other words, both bullpens are susceptible in this match-up too. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
1st Half Game of the Year (pre-All Star break GOY) - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total as the Cubs won 11-6. Chicago is now 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. The Cubs are also 3-0 to the over in Jon Lester's last 3 starts. The southpaw has not looked quite as sharp in recent starts as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two outings. Also, Lester has given up 15 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts while allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in those two outings. In home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Padres are 13-7 to the over this season. Also, when the Padres are on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-3 this season! I know that Eric Lauer has a low ERA in recent starts. However, his full season numbers do tell more of a complete story on him and also he had been hit hard in each of his past two outings before the surprising success versus the Dodgers in his most recent start. Lauer had allowed 16 hits in the 10 innings spanning his two prior starts and both of those outings went over the total. Lauer has a 1.64 WHIP on the season so it is not as if he is a dominant starter and today he is facing a solid Cubs lineup! Chicago has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their 8 July wins as they've won 8 of 11 games this month. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 games and they hit two homers off of Lester in his most recent start against them. The ball does carry better in day games compared to night games at Petco Field and I love the value here with the low total. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - After Friday's game totaled 15 runs, yesterday's game ended up being a surprising 5-0 shutout win for Kansas City. Prior to that under, the Royals had gone 8-2 to the over their previous 10 games. The White Sox, prior to that shutout loss, had gone 16-6 to the over their last 22 games. The Royals Burch Smith got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start and the KC right-hander will be facing a Chicago team that was averaging scoring 5.4 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's loss. As for the White Sox starter, Lucas Giolito, he is also likely to get roughed up here. Giolioto has an 8.65 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Also, the Royals will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and this is a big edge for them here. The over is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 games versus a right-handed starter and these two bullpens are also two of the worst in baseball with Kansas City's ERA actually ranking the Royals dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. Both bullpens could certainly be called into play early here as Giolito has averaged only 5 and 1/2 innings per start his last 9 starts and the Royals Smith is unlikely to work deep here given his struggles at the MLB level as a starter (2013 too when most recently used in that role). In fact, KC is calling this a bullpen day as Smith is also working on short rest here. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
|||||||
07-14-18 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now 7-0 this season in Indians home games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. Overall, on the season, Cleveland's home games are 32-14 to the over. Additionally, the Indians are 11-1 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has been getting hit harder of late as he has allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start. The over is 6-2-1 in Clevinger's home starts this season and he does have a higher ERA at home compared to on the road this season. As for CC Sabathia, the Yankees left-hander allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start too. Like Clevinger, he has been getting hit harder of late. Sabathia has allowed 37 hits in his last 31 innings. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Yankees Saturday games this season. The Indians last 5 games overall have all gone over the total and this one does too! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
|||||||
07-14-18 | Reds +134 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 134 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Saturday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Reds Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Reds blasted the Cardinals 9-1 yesterday so many will be looking for a bounce back here from St Louis but Cincinnati is currently the better team with the better lineup also. In terms of the pitching match-up, the Reds also have the better starter on the mound with Luis Castillo going up against a struggling Jack Flaherty for the Cardinals. With yesterday's big win Cincinnati is 20-9 their last 29 games! St Louis is an ugly 11-17 their last 28 games. This is clearly a case of two teams going opposite directions right now but market perception is still siding with the Cardinals here which is why we get great underdog value in a spot like this. Although Castillo lost to St Louis in his most recent match-up versus the Cardinals, he struck out 10 while allowing only 4 hits in 6 innings! The problem for Castillo was that he allowed big hits in that game but you can see that he did enjoy quite a lot of success in that start but was victimized by a couple of mistake pitches. As for the Cards Flaherty, he has a 7.11 ERA in his two career starts versus the Reds and he also is on the "fade" of late after pitching a little "over his head" earlier this season. The point is that Flaherty is not as good as his full season numbers show and Castillo is much better than his full season numbers show. At the same time we have the much hotter team and the much hotter lineup. Note too that Flaherty has a 7.30 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* CINCINNATI |
|||||||
07-13-18 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Both teams were off yesterday. The Reds are 14-3-2 to the over their last 19 games! Cincinnati is averaging scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 11 games. The Cardinals are off of a shutout loss Wednesday but they entered that game having gone 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. St Louis had averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in that 10-game stretch. Friday marks the 15th time this season the Cardinals are playing after a day off and so far only 5 of these spots have stayed under the total. The Reds are 30-18 to the over this season when off of a loss. Also, Cincinnati is on a 7-1 run to the over when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Reds hand the ball to Matt Harvey for this one and though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his most recent start he did give up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work and the road hasn't been kind to Harvey this season. On enemy mounds this season, Harvey is 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA on the year. The Cincinnati right-hander faced the Cardinals last month and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings thanks in large part to allowing 3 homers in that one. He'll be opposed by Carlos Martinez Friday. The St Louis right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start versus the Reds and that was just last month. Martinez has walked 14 in less than 17 innings of work in his last 3 starts versus Cincinnati. Only 2 of his 8 home starts this season have resulted in an under as he has received great run support in home games and that should certainly continue here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Phillies -101 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 6:05 ET - Starting pitchers have so much focus on them in terms of setting MLB lines and the way betting markets react, that this can actually work to a sharp players advantage in certain situations and this is one of those spots! The Phillies, of course, are the much better team in comparison with the Orioles and yet they are in a "pick 'em" price range here. The reason for that is because of Kevin Gausman having earned far more respect than Nick Pivetta this season. In theory, the line here makes sense but, at the same time, a closer look shows you why there is so much value going with the perceived weaker pitcher in a match-up like this. For one thing, Pivetta pitched at Baltimore in May and allowed only 1 earned run on 2 hits while striking out 11 in 7 innings of stellar work! Both of these teams are off of shutout losses yesterday but that was the 10th time in 14 games that the Orioles have been held to 2 runs or less! As for the Phillies, they had won 8 of their 10 prior games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their 11 games previous to yesterday's extra-inning shutout at the hands of the Mets in New York. Also, though Pivetta's last two starts have been rough and short, he previously had pitched quite well over his 8 prior starts. As for the O's Gausman, he has given up 36 hits in the 32 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 home starts. The Phillies can do some damage here while I expect the Orioles struggles at the plate to continue. Keep in mind, Baltimore is known for a "free-swinging" lineup and Pivetta does pile up a lot of strikeouts. Also, the Orioles are 1-9 in Gausman's last 10 starts! Baltimore is also 15-47 against right-handed starters this season while the Phils are 40-30 versus right-handed pitching on the season. Also, the Phillies are 26-14 this season when off of a loss. The Orioles are 1-7 this season after getting shutout. You can see which team is more likely to bounce back here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - With Robbie Ray having strong numbers on the season and Kyle Freeland having strong numbers at home this season, this total is being kept lower than it should be. Although the wind will be blowing in this afternoon it won't be a strong wind and, keep in mind, the ball carries even better in afternoon games than it does at night. The hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field helped produce 21 runs and that was the 2nd time in 4 games that the Diamondbacks have been involved in a game that produced more than 20 runs. Both of these teams hit lefties well and this afternoon game is a match-up of southpaws. In the National League, only the Braves have a higher slugging percentage versus left-handers than the Rockies and Diamondbacks do. Also, Arizona's Ray comes into this game having allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts and he has compiled a 9.64 ERA in those two starts. As for Freeland, though his recent numbers are strong, the Diamondbacks lineup is known for giving him some trouble and they just faced him a month ago, In his last 3 starts versus Arizona, Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. As you can see, allowing nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks he is actually fortunate the damage hasn't been even worse. I suspect the damage will be worse today! In road games where their money line is between -125 and +125, Arizona is 19-7 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
07-11-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - I know it seems tough to take an over with Chris Sale on the mound but the Red Sox have been giving him plenty of run support. Each of his last two starts have gone over the total as Boston has averaged scoring 10.5 runs per game. Also, the Red Sox enter this game absolutely red hot at the plate. The over is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game. Even though Sale has been fantastic on the mound, this will be the 2nd time in a span of two months and the last time he hosted the Rangers at Fenway Park he allowed 4 runs (3 earned). Texas scored 4 runs last night and they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game their last 23 games! Of course the key to this play is the Rangers Bartolo Colon getting rocked and I have little doubt about that! Though he held the Red Sox to 4 earned runs in his early May start against Boston, all 4 runs came via the long ball! Yes Colon allowed 4 homers in that game and now he faces the powerful (and red hot) BoSox lineup at Fenway Park! This could get ugly in a hurry and I expect it to fly over the total early as a result. Colon has allowed 22 homers in his 16 starts this season and, even off of a solid road start against a poor Tigers team at Detroit, he has compiled a 7.24 ERA in his last 5 road starts! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 games the Red Sox have played against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
07-11-18 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to a 7.5 and this is offering huge value on the over. The drop is understood because the Giants Johnny Cueto has great full season numbers and so too does Mike Montgomery. Also, these teams have scored a total of only 5 runs in the first two games of this series. That said, the move on this total does make perfect sense. However, the reason it does not make sense is absolutely why I am all "over" the "over" at AT & T Park this afternoon. The ball does tend to carry better in afternoon games in San Francisco and temperatures will warm to near 70 degrees and the wind will be blowing out a good clip. Additionally, Cueto is still unproven since his time on the disabled list. He made one start (last week) and he allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work! As for Montgomery, he is in poor current form. The Cubs southpaw has a 1.63 WHIP and a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts! The over is 2-1 in Montgomery's last 3 starts and the over is 3-0 in Cueto's 3 home starts this season! The over is 16-10 this season in San Francisco's home games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. The Giants are also 10-4 to the over this season in Wednesday games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
|||||||
07-10-18 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed well under the total but the Royals were 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. Kansas City hasn't recorded back to back unders since two weeks ago. The Twins bullpen and the Royals bullpen are ranked as the two worst in the majors in terms of opponents batting average. KC's relievers are also ranked dead last for bullpen ERA on the year. Both bullpens could certainly be called upon early here. The Royals Ian Kennedy averages just 5 and 1/3 inning per start and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. He also has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Twins even though these 3 outings saw him compile a total of only 10 and 2/3 innings! As for Aaron Slegers, his first start of this season was a good one but it came against the free-swinging Orioles and yet he still recorded only 2 strikeouts. I am well aware of the fact that the Royals, of course, fall into the same class of team as Baltimore. However, the point is that Slegers one start against a bad O's team does not mean he has "arrived". In his few MLB appearances (6 games with 4 starts included) he has a 4.73 ERA. In the minors this season he has been hit a .260 clip and last season he was hit at .266 clip. With these types of numbers in the minors it would not surprise to see him get hit at a .300 clip in the majors. In other words, Slegers one good start (in my book) is a bit of a fluke. Long-term the over is 100-69 in Twins games versus teams with a losing record and both lineups get back on track after yesterday's pitchers' duel. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
07-10-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #966 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -1.5 runs vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox rolled 5-0 last night as the Rangers struggles continue. Texas has lost 6 of its last 8 games and they've scored an average of only 1.5 runs per game their last 4 games! Boston, on the other hand, is rolling and has won 7 straight and 14 of their last 17 games! The Red Sox have averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 13 games! Boston is using Hector Velazquez for a spot start here. Though he is mostly used as a long reliever, Velazquez has been solid nonetheless in his MLB career as this is his 2nd season and so far he has compiled a 9-1 record with a 2.82 ERA in the majors. Texas is not familiar with him and is likely to struggle. Speaking of struggles, the Rangers Yovani Gallardo has incredibly gone 3-0 as a starter for Texas even though he has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts. Keep in mind he has not had an ERA below 5.42 since the 2015 season! Gallardo has a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts versus the Red Sox as both walks and hits allowed have been an issue. This one has the makings of a complete mismatch on the mound and we can get a great number on this game by laying the 1.5 runs with Boston on the run line. The Red Sox last 37 victories have featured 34 wins by 2 or more runs. In other words, when they win they almost always win by a multiple run margin. As for the Rangers, only 10 of their 52 losses this season have been one-run defeats. Great odds on a home blowout here! 10* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
|||||||
07-09-18 | Phillies -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ New York Mets @ 7:40 ET (Game 2 of double header) - This should be a dominating road win for the Phillies but, of course, I am not going to lay nearly 2 to 1 odds on the money line. The value here is on the run line where we get the Phillies at a pick'em price in a game that should prove to be a complete mismatch. Note that the Mets are 0-8 this season in home games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Overall at home this season, New York enters Monday with one of the worst records in MLB at 15-28 on the year. The Phillies Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and Philadelphia has won each of his last 5 starts and 12 of his last 14 overall. In terms of "comfort level" with laying the 1.5 runs with the Phillies here, note that 16 of the Mets last 17 losses have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. While Nola has been dominant this season, a struggling Corey Oswalt gets the start for the Mets here. The young right-hander has a 10.79 ERA in his two starts this season and 2018 is the first year that Oswalt has pitched any higher than the AA level in the minors. The fact is that it has not gone well. Even at AAA Las Vegas, Oswalt has compiled a 5.32 ERA in his 10 starts. He'll be in trouble here trying to match Nola in putting up zeros on the scoreboard. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs (Game 2 of double header) |
|||||||
07-08-18 | Dodgers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that the Dodgers Alex Wood has made. Though he has pitched quite well of late he has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 8 innings on the road which spanned two starts. Of course that did include a trip to Coors Field but also note that Wood has given up 23 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 4 road starts. The point is that, overall, the Dodgers lefty has been quite hittable on the road. As for the Angels Andrew Heaney, he is off of a strong start at Seattle. However, in the left-hander's 4 prior starts he did compile a 6.33 ERA. Heaney had allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his prior 6 starts. In his most recent start against the Dodgers, the Angels lefty was reached for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Entering Saturday's game, the Dodgers were 4-1 in their last 5 games thanks to production on offense averaging 7.8 runs per game. That production keyed a 4-1 run to the over for the Dodgers. Regardless of Saturday's final outcome, note that the Dodgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. Additionally, the Angels entered Saturday's afternoon game having trended under of late but the Halos slugging percentage in night games this season does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers slugging percentage in night games ranks them 2nd in the National League. This is a contrarian play but it is not without good reason and I expect plenty will be surprised at the struggles of both Wood and Heaney in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
|||||||
07-08-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 1:10 ET - Regular followers know I had the over (also 9 runs) in this match-up yesterday. Unbelievably the game ended up only being able to manage a push even though 7 runs were scored in the 1st inning. What made this even more frustrating is that there were numerous opportunities all game long! One look at some final statistics tells you just how numerous those opportunities were! The teams combined to leave 19 men on base and, in terms of clutch hitting, note that the teams combined to go a miserable 3 for 26 with runners in scoring position. That my friends is how a game that should have easily gone over the total somehow manages not to. It barely even got the push as the run that was needed finally came in the top of the 9th inning. I am thankful we didn't get "totally" burned which we would have if we didn't get that push but the fact remains yesterday's game should have finished with about 15 runs! Funny things tend to happen after a game like that and I fully expect the lineups to make up for yesterday's shortcomings in Sunday's early action. The Rangers Austin Bibens-Dirkx has had decent starts versus the light-hitting Padres and Royals recently but his other 3 starts this season have seen him allow 13 earned runs on 26 hits in 17 innings of work! Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Texas and he averaged just 5 and 1/3 innings in those 2 starts. Also, Detroit is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and he has a mediocre 4.58 ERA in those outings. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
07-07-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Rangers Cole Hamels is struggling and has allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Facing the Tigers is unlikely to help Hamels as he has a low ERA versus Detroit but it is an absolute fluke. The Texas southpaw was very fortunate in recent outings versus the Tigers are he allowed only 6 earned runs in 13 innings even though he gave up 22 hits plus walked 8 in those 13 frames! Talk about incredible luck, it won't happen again here. Another concern for Hamels is that the Tigers have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Their .274 batting average versus southpaws is #1 in the majors. Detroit will have Mike Fiers on the mound and I am well aware of the fact that his recent numbers look great. Note however that Fiers is facing a Rangers lineup that is very familiar with him. That is because the Tigers right-hander recent's seasons were as a member of the Astros - a division rival of Texas. In his last 3 starts versus the Rangers, Fiers has allowed 16 earned runs in just 13 and 1/3 innings. You can see why I am expecting both of these guys to get pounded Saturday. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Hamels last 3 starts. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Fiers 6 career starts versus Texas. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
07-07-18 | Cardinals v. Giants +120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Matinee Mauling - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Saturday 10* Top Play San Francisco Giants Money Line (+) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - Everyone is jumping all over the Cardinals here but, keep in mind, Carlos Martinez has been much better at home in comparison with on the road this season. Though he is off of a strong start at Arizona, he previously had compiled a 6.18 ERA in his last 6 starts overall. On the road he had been roughed up at both Milwaukee and Cincinnati prior to the solid outing at Chase Field. In other words, don't be surprised if he struggles here. The Cardinals are still just 2-5 and his last 7 starts and the Giants have been a great home team this season. While St Louis is 14-20 in road games where their line ranges from -125 to +125 this season, San Francisco is 15-5 in home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Giants, with yesterday's win, are now 8-3 their last 11 at AT & T Park. While Jeff Samardzija is making his first start in over a month and has overall unimpressive numbers this season, he has given up just 10 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two home starts and he is known for pitching better at home in comparison with on the road. Also, Samardzija has a superb 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Cardinals. Grab the undervalued home dog here. The Giants .263 batting average in home games this season ranks them 5th out of the 30 MLB teams. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
|||||||
07-06-18 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem "scary" to play an over involving red hot Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale, follow along here. If you want to be involved this match-up, the total is arguably the "safest" way. The Red Sox are a -300 on the money line and also in the 175 range as a favorite on the run line. As you can see, Boston is projected to blow out Kansas City here but, as we've all seen before, "shockers" do happen and that is always why it is uncomfortable laying big prices. That said, I love the value with the over here. I know know Sale has been hot and the Royals have been cold. However, note that the lefty has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium and he did allow 2 homers in his most recent trip there. As for the Boston sticks here they should do plenty of damage. They'll be facing the Royals Jason Hammel and he has gone 0-3 with a 9.76 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The likelihood of him turning things around against one of the best hitting teams in baseball is not good at all. This is especially true when one considers that Hammel got pummeled for 8 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his start at Boston earlier this season. The Red Sox had not trouble with his offerings then and they are unlikely to have any trouble here either. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs Kansas City is 5-2 to the over this season. Also, from 2016 to the present, the Royals are 7-1 to the over when they are a home dog of +175 or more! Both teams were off yesterday and Boston is 26-16 to the over when playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
|||||||
07-06-18 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 17-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games. The Phillies are 4-0 to the over in Nick Pivetta's last 4 starts. Pivetta had a great start versus the Cardinals during this stretch but, overall, his June was horrible with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts. He has shown to be a streaky pitcher and right now he is most certainly in one of his downward cycles. The Pirates Trevor Williams also comes into this start struggling. He has a 5.91 ERA in his last two starts and allowed 3 homers in the less than 11 innings spanning those two outings. Another concern for him here is that he has shown throughout his career that he struggles in night games compared to day games. Additionally, Williams also struggles much more against left-handed batters than righties. The Phillies active roster, in terms of position players, has 3 left-handed batters plus 4 switch-hitters. You can bet that Williams is going to face some significant left-handed lumber in this one and that will be a problem. This total has already dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and, either way, there is great value with this one based on the low total and the expectation that both of these hurlers are going to hit some rough patches in this one. By the way, wind expected to be blowing out to right field in this one in Pittsburgh! The Pirates are 15-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Philadelphia is 8-4 to the over in Friday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
|||||||
07-05-18 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 down to a 7 as of early on game day but the markets are fooled on this one simply because Justin Verlander is on the mound. Yes he has a fantastic pitcher but his current form suggests he could definitely give up quite a few runs against a White Sox team that has been swinging the bats better the past few weeks. Another key to the over here is that the Astros are back home and they have been swinging the bats very well at Minute Maid Park plus they should have no trouble with the mediocre offerings of Carlos Rodon. The Chicago southpaw is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in his five starts since he returned from the 60-day disabled list about four weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in Rodon's last 3 starts overall. Also, on the season he is 0-3 on the road and he has been rocked for 9 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings in his last two starts away from home. As for Verlander, has strong as he has been all season, the fact is that he has labored a bit recently as he has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He has allowed 3 homers in his last two home starts and Rodon has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts overall. The Astros are averaging scoring 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 home games and the White Sox are averaging scoring 6.1 runs per game in their last dozen games overall. You can see why I am happy to take advantage of the very low total posted on this game. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
|||||||
07-05-18 | Orioles v. Twins -119 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (-) vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:10 ET - At first glance this is simply a match-up of two struggling teams. However, when you dig a little deeper you see exactly why Minnesota is offering great line value in this spot. Yes the Twins have been on an overall slide just like the Orioles have of late. However, Minnesota is back home where they are playing .500 ball on the season. They're hosting a Baltimore team that is 12-32 on the road this season which includes losing 28 of their last 37 away from home! The Orioles have been held to scoring 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games. The Twins have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their last 6 games. Minnesota starter Aaron Slegers had a solid effort in long relief on the road this season. While this is his first start of the season he should enjoy pitching at home where in his 3 games (2 starts) last season he held opponents to a .171 batting average. He is 20-10 in AAA the last two seasons combined with an ERA that is under 3.50 the past two seasons combined. Slegers should enjoy plenty of success against a "free-swinging" Orioles lineup that has too many slumping sticks in its lineup to mount many scoring threats. Baltimore's Andrew Cashner faced the Twins once last season and has already faced them once this season. In these two starts Cashner has allowed 5 Minnesota homers in just 9 innings of work! Look for the Twins to drop Baltimore to 3-12 in Cashner's last 15 starts! 10* MINNESOTA |
|||||||
07-04-18 | Cardinals +133 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-4 | Win | 133 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass (nightcap) - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Prior to last night's 4-2 win, the Diamondbacks had lost 6 straight home games! Even with last night's win, Arizona still has an ugly 10-21 record this season in games against teams with a winning record! Also note that St Louis ranks 1st in the National League in home runs per game on the road (they've hit 59 in 39 away games!), Arizona's paltry .219 batting average versus right-handed pitching ranks the Diamondbacks dead last in MLB out of all 30 teams! That said, I like the value here with underdog St Louis. Both the Cardinals Miles Mikolas and the Dbacks Patrick Corbin have had solid seasons this year but Arizona has never faced Mikolas while Corbin's last 3 starts versus the Cardinals have seen the Arizona southpaw compile a 5.50 ERA. The Diamondbacks are just 4-7 in Corbin's last 11 starts and he had compiled a 7.33 ERA in his last 4 home starts prior to a successful one versus the Giants in his last outing. In all 4 of those outings at Chase Field Corbin allowed at least 4 earned runs. As for Mikolas, he is 8-3 on the season and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The Dbacks struggles at home resume tonight. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
07-04-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass (Primetime) - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and the fact that the game ended up going 12 innings certainly didn't do any favors for the bullpens either. That said, look for another slugfest on Sunday evening because neither one of these starters is likely to enjoy much success either. Dylan Covey gets the start for the White Sox in this one and he has allowed 26 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings. He has a 12.71 ERA and 2.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now faces a red hot Reds lineup. Cincinnati simply continues to pound the ball and the over is now 8-2-2 in their last dozen games. The Reds have averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 16 games. As for the White Sox, they've averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 11 games. Chicago has also averaged 11 hits per game during this 11-game stretch. The over is 11-3 in the White Sox last 14 games and they should continue pounding the ball as they face Sal Romano Wednesday evening. The Reds right-hander has given up 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Though Romano only allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start he did have to work out of numerous jams. Also, this start was proceeded by a stretch where he allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his 8 prior starts. In fact, even including his most recent start (2 ER in 5 IP), Romano has a 6.33 ERA in his last 5 home starts. The slugfest style of games at Great American Ball Park continue. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-03-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Top Play Special - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tough loss for me with this play yesterday and, as a result, I am not hesitating to come right back with it. The Reds and White Sox combined for 9 extra base hits in yesterday's game but Cincinnati went just 1 for 8 at the plate with runners in scoring position. Also, the teams combined to leave 19 men on base in the game and so the over (released at 9.5) was a tough loss as it finished with 8 runs. Chicago scored just 3 runs despite 11 hits yesterday. Look for the teams to make up for it today as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The White Sox are going with Lucas Giolito and he has a 6.59 ERA on the season and will be facing a Cincinnati team that has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last 15 games. Also, the under that resulted yesterday was just the 2nd under that the Reds have had in their last 11 games! As for the White Sox, prior to yesterday's under, the over was 10-2 their last 12 games. Even with yesterday's loss Chicago has averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game their last 10 games. They'll be going up against Cincinnati's Anthony DeSclafani. The Reds right-hander has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts and all 3 outings resulted in an over. He has a 4.77 ERA at home and continues to display a penchant for giving up big hits. The White Sox have reached double digits in hits in 8 of their last 10 games and should get to him early and often. The Reds have averaged 10 hits per game their last 15 games! 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-02-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - When you look at the current MLB standings you will see the White Sox near the basement of the AL Central and the Reds in the cellar of the NL Central. The point is that this makes these teams easy for the markets to ignore and that's great for spots like this. These teams square off of in a 3-game series Monday that actually pits two of the hotter lineups in the league. Though you wouldn't expect it from these two teams, both of them have been very hot at the plate. The White Sox won 10-5 at Texas yesterday and are now 5-4 in their last 9 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game on 10.6 hits per game during this stretch. The over is now 10-2 in Chicago's last dozen games. As for the Reds, they have had just 1 under in their last 10 games as they are 7-1-2 to the over after yesterday's 8-2 win went over the total. Cincinnati has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 14 games! You can see why a 7-6 type game here would not surprise in the least and I am jumping all "over" this total. Chicago's James Shields has a 5.81 ERA on the road this season and though he tends to not give up a lot of hits he has a penchant for giving up big hits and Great American Ball Park is a very hitter friendly park. As for the Reds Luis Castillo, he is having a sub-park season and has compiled a 5.85 ERA on the year. The over is 11-5-1 in his 17 starts. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 6.82 ERA in his last 7 starts so it is not as if he is trending the right direction either. The Reds are a long-term 31-16 to the over in Monday games and that includes 7-1 to the over this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-01-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - We have got a low total to work with here and that makes perfect sense given the long-term numbers of Luis Severino for the Yankees and David Price for the Red Sox. The key to the value here is each of these pitchers have had some struggles against the potent lineups they'll be facing tonight. Severino has piled up solid strikeout numbers versus Boston this season but he also has allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits in his 11 innings versus the Red Sox this year. Also, in Severino's most recent home start he allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work versus the Mariners. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw got crushed by the Yankees on April 11th and allowed 4 earned runs in a start in which he registered just 3 outs! That was at Fenway Park. How about the last time he started at Yankee Stadium? Price gave up 6 earned runs in just 5 innings of work! The Boston lefty is off of a strong start at home but he did allow 2 homers in 6 innings in his most recent road start and that was against a Twins team that doesn't have near the "pop" in their lineup that this Yankees team has! Certainly this is a contrarian play but the weather is favorable for an over, there is reason to believe each starter could struggle against the powerful lineups they are facing which do have some good history against them, and some current numbers also support the fact this game should get to at least 9 runs. Note we need just 4 runs from each team to guarantee us of no worse than a 5-4 final which, of course, puts us in the winners' circle. The Red Sox have scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games. Boston was held below 4 runs just twice in this stretch. The Bronx Bombers had scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their 11 games prior to yesterday's shutout loss. They have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game the 3 times they've been off of scoreless defeat this season! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
07-01-18 | Royals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Royals, surprisingly, did notch 9 hits yesterday. However, not surprisingly, only 1 of Kansas City's 9 hits went for extra bases. The fact is that, after that 3-run homer in the first inning for KC yesterday they were quite quiet the rest of the way. The Royals are simply a very bad team and they are totally out-classed here based on the pitching match-up Sunday. Seattle, as a result, is a huge money line favorite in this match-up. However, by utilizing the run line we get a very fair price on the Mariners in a game they should easily win by a margin of 2 or more runs. Note that James Paxton is a superb 7-2 with a 3.56 ERA this season. The M's southpaw has struck out 19 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts and the Royals sub-par lineup will struggle here. Paxton has a 2.54 ERA in his 5 career starts versus Kansas City and he has struck out 17 Royals in his last 12 innings against them. The Royals counter with Brad Keller and he is off of his first career MLB winner as a starter. Off a gem like he just threw (albeit at home) look for him to quickly come crashing back down on the road against a tough Mariners lineup. Keller's two prior starts had seen him allow 14 hits and 7 walks in just 11 and 1/3 innings. Seattle has won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 8. Six of those eight games were decided by 2 or more runs. The Royals have lost 20 of their last 24 games. Also, Kansas City's has seen 13 of its last 16 defeats come by 2 or more runs! Run Line Rout here! 10* SEATTLE -1.5 runs |
|||||||
06-30-18 | Red Sox -135 v. Yankees | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Not only did the Red Sox get drilled by the Yankees yesterday, they are also likely to bounce back here because they have an absolutely massive pitching edge in this one. The Red Sox have Chris Sale going and that rates them with a huge edge over the Yankees as the Bronx Bombers go with Sonny Gray. New York's Gray has struggled for much of this season and this has been particularly true at home where he has a 7.22 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his 7 starts! Boston's Sale has dominated for much of this season and that includes a 2.56 ERA on the year overall plus an incredible 0.84 WHIP in his 10 road starts this season. In Sale's last 4 starts he has allowed only 4 earned runs on just 15 hits while striking out 43 in 28 innings of work! This is pure dominance and I expect more of the same here. Sale was rock solid against the Yankees earlier this season while Gray has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Red Sox. Boston, prior to yesterday's loss, had averaged 12 hits per game in going 6-1 in their 7 prior games. The Yankees had gone just 2-4 while averaging only 6.7 hits per game in their 6 prior games. Those trends resume here as the Red Sox have a great shot at the road rout in this one. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
06-30-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:15 ET - Most will be looking under here but I am going contrarian as I am not going to over-react to Kenta Maeda having one good start. The Dodgers right-hander was excellent versus the Cubs in his most recent outing but he entered that one having allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 9 walks in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for the Rockies German Marquez, he has a history of pitching well on the road. However, his current form suggest we can expect some struggles here and, keep in mind, the ball does carry better in day games at Dodger Stadium than it does at night. Marquez enters this starts having allowed 25 runs (24 earned) on 35 hits in the 25 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. All 5 of these outings went over the total and I fully expect another EASY one here. Yesterday's game featured a pair of southpaw starters and the pitchers ruled the game. However, the over is 3-1 in the Rockies last 4 games versus a right handed starter and all 4 of those contests totaled at least 8 runs. Note the total on this game is only a 7.5 and the Dodgers are 33-17 (66%) to the over this season games against a right-handed starter. Also, in LA's Saturday games, the over is 10-5 (67%) this season! The over improves to 6-0 in Colorado's last 6 starts with Marquez on the mound. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers |
|||||||
06-29-18 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:15 ET - Warm weather, wind blowing out toward left field, and two pitchers likely to get roughed up. Combining those factors with a low total of 8.5 here and I really like our chances of getting rather easy over winner. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas has great full season numbers but has a 4.58 ERA in his last 3 starts and I feel a "fade" could be coming for the "surprise story" of the season. Mikolas has spent the last 3 years pitching in Japan and has certainly pitched better than expected this year. It is not going to last forever and there are some "signs" in recent starts. As for the Braves Julio Teheran, he is off of a rough start versus Baltimore and has also been a pitcher on an overall cooling trend. Since mid-May Teheran has a 6.05 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Braves right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over (and one push) in Friday games this season. Both teams were off yesterday and the Cards are 7-4 to the over (and one push) when playing after a day off this season. The Braves are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 road games. The Cardinals are off of a tough home loss to the Indians Wednesday but, prior to that game, they had averaged 10.4 hits per game in their 5 prior home games. Also, prior to that loss, the Cards had won 4 straight games overall and averaged 6.5 runs per game. They bounce back here but the Braves will score plenty as well! 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .506 this season in home games. That is #1 in the majors. Their prowess at Fenway Park was on display again last night in a 9-6 win over the Angels. As for Los Angeles, they have a .432 slugging percentage on the road this season. This is good for the #6 spot in the majors! All signs are pointing to another "slugfest" Thursday evening. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels and he is showings some signs that a downturn is forthcoming. Yes, he has good overall numbers on the season but Barria has a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last two road starts the Angels right-hander has been rocked for 7 runs (6 earned) on 14 hits in 11 innings of work. Barria now gets introduced to hitter-friendly Fenway Park on an evening where the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at a decent clip. Also, the Red Sox have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 6 games! You can easily see why I am expected Barria to get pounded here. The good news for Angels fans however is that LA should also deliver plenty of success at the plate tonight. They'll take advantage of facing Red Sox southpaw Brian Johnson. He hasn't started since early April and has been working out of the bullpen. As a reliever this season he has a 1.47 WHIP and 5.10 ERA. Certainly nothing all that impressive and Johnson has been hit at a .288 clip this season and was also hit at a .281 clip last season in his 5 starts at the MLB level. The over is 6-2 in Angels Thursday games and 7-1-2 in their last 10 road games. More of the same here as the Red Sox stay hot at the plate while LA pounds Johnson. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:45 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Rockies win) most will be looking for another under and, indeed, the total has already dropped from an opener of 8 down to a 7.5 as of early game day morning. The fact is that, although AT & T Park is certainly a pitchers park, the ball does carry better there in day games than it does at night. Though temperatures are unlikely to reach 70 in San Francisco today, a strong wind will be blowing out toward center and there are likely to be some big hits for extra bases in this one! The Rockies Jon Gray is off of a strong start versus the Marlins but he had struggled his last 7 starts prior. Gray compiled an 8.13 ERA in his 7 previous outings! Entering this start, the over is 6-1 in Colorado's last 7 games with Gray as the starter. As for the Giants Chris Stratton, he held the light-hitting Padres to just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. However, note that he did allow 9 hits in those 6 innings. On the season, Stratton has a 5.08 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his 8 home starts and the Giants are 6-2 to the over in his outings at AT & T Park! SF is 13-7 to the over this season in home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Colorado is 15-8 to the over this season in road games where their money line is in a range between +125 and -125. Also, the over was 20-4 in the Rockies last 24 games prior to this series. After the first two games stayed under the total, look for an over to finish this 3-game set with a bang! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
|||||||
06-27-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #908 Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - The Cubs got the huge 9-4 win yesterday over the Dodgers. However, prior to that victory, Chicago had lost 5 straight games and 10 of their last 15. As for Los Angeles, previous to the defeat, the Dodgers had won 4 straight games and 26 of their last 35. You read that right, it means the Cubs had more losses in their last 15 games than the Dodgers had in their last 35 games! That said, with also having the home field edge in this match-up, I like the value here with LA at a very fair price Wednesday night. Alex Wood is "flying under the radar" right now because he only has 3 wins this season and has a 4.13 ERA on the year. The fact is that he has pitched better of late and his current form suggests to me that he is turning the corner. Wood is a very tough southpaw that had a solid 2.70 ERA versus the Cubs in his 3 starts against Chicago last season. As for Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, he struggled in his lone start against the Dodgers last season (in the playoffs) and he has struggled on the road this season. Chicago is 2-5 in Hendricks' starts away from home this season and he has compiled a 4.78 ERA in these outings. The markets (and betting public) watched the Cubs destroy the Dodgers last night and they'll grab the road dog here but the sharp money will be on the Dodgers in bounce back mode and with Wood turning the corner big-time. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
|||||||
06-27-18 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins have been hot at the plate but I got burned by this play (over the total used as a free pick) yesterday. It was the only game on the board where BOTH teams left at least 10 men on base in the game. In other words, it was a game filled with wasted opportunities. I will get payback today in a big way! Prior to yesterday's game falling just a run short of going over the total, the over was 7-1 in Miami's prior 8 games and the Marlins have averaged scoring 5.1 runs per game during this solid 9-game stretch. They should stay hot against Robbie Ray as he is coming off of the disabled list and was supposed to have another rehab start Monday but is instead making this start for the Diamondbacks. Ray has a 4.88 ERA in his 6 starts this season and I don't expect him be 100% here. The good news for Ray is that he should get plenty of run support here as his teammates will be "teeing off" against the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen. The Miami southpaw has a 6.71 ERA this season and, although his numbers at home show him as much better there this season, he did struggle in his most recent outing in south Florida. Why? Because the fact is that Chen is simply not in good current form right now. As a result, I am happy to take advantage of the low total posted here considering that each of these pitchers are truly both "question marks" for this game. The Diamondbacks are 9-5 in their last 14 games thanks in part to offensive production that has led to Arizona averaging 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 to the over this season in Wednesday games. Look for another one - easy - here! 10* OVER the total in Miami |
|||||||
06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers in their most recent starts and I expect that to benefit the hitters. Yesterday's game turned into a surprising pitchers duel as both starters pitched much better than anyone could have expected. Kenta Maeda had been awful of late and Duante Underwood was an unproven rookie. With that said, watch tonight's game be "surprising" the other way as the Dodgers Ross Stripling and Cubs Jon Lester both fare worse than most would expect. Stripling gave up 8 hits in 6 innings at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Lester only gave up 5 hits in 7 innings in that start but he also only struck out 1 while walking 3. The point is that both pitchers gave up a lot of solid contact even though you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score - a 4-0 Cubs win. Having just seen these pitchers, the lineups are really going to do some damage tonight. The Dodgers had averaged 7 runs per game in their 3-game series sweep of the Mets in New York. The Cubs had recorded a perfect 3-0 to the over in the final 3 games of their 4-game series at Cincinnati. The point is that one shouldn't over-react to last night's surprising result. These are two quality lineups and here is an interesting factoid relating to value here. The Dodgers are 18-9 versus left-handed starters this season and yet the over is 6-20-1 in those 27 games. The Dodgers have hit southpaws much better than what the O/U record reflects and so we get value (total of 7.5) in a spot like this. LA is a top ten team in the majors for slugging percentage versus left-handed starters this season. The Cubs are hitting .258 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 in the National League. Lester has a 7.88 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts at Dodger Stadium. More struggles for him tonight but his Chicago teammates should hit Stripling hard in the rematch as well and that sends this one flying over the low number. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
|||||||
06-25-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - The Dodgers hit 7 homers in their big win at New York yesterday against the Mets. Now they'll be facing an unproven rookie hurler making his MLB debut. Look for the Cubs Duane Underwood to struggle here. The 23-year old right-hander has not fared all that well in the minors once he got past the rookie and single-A leagues. In double-A ball two years ago he went 0-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 13 starts. Last season in double-A ball again he did go 13-7 but Underwood compiled a 4.43 ERA in those outings. This season in triple-A ball he is 3-7 with a 4.27 ERA. Today he'll make his major league debut in a pitcher-friendly park but the way the Dodgers are seeing the ball right now it may not matter! LA is crushing the ball right now and Underwood's only hope is for some solid run support which, actually, he is likely to get! The Cubs certainly have a powerful lineup of their own and they'll be facing a struggling Kenta Maeda. He is winless with a 6.09 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his career versus the Cubs, Maeda's 3 starts have seen him compile a 5.56 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. As you can see from those WHIP figures noted above, Maeda is likely to allow 2 baserunners per inning tonight. When a pitcher is doing that it doesn't take very long to get into trouble. This is particularly true against a solid lineup like the Cubs have. The Dodgers averaged 6 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Mets this past weekend. The over is 5-2 in Chicago's last 7 road games and the Cubs have averaged scoring nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 3-1 this season when the Cubs enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The over is a solid 32-16 in LA's games versus right-handed starters this season. More of the same Monday in late night ESPN action. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
|||||||
06-24-18 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:05 ET - Nick Pivetta is off of a fantastic start but that was at home against St Louis and he really can't be trusted here. He was struggling heading into that start and he also has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season. Additionally, Pivetta has struggled badly against the Nationals in his career. He is winless with an 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in his 3 starts versus Washington and all of those outings have occurred since May of last year. In other words, the Nationals have had his number in very recent action. The key to the over here is that the Phillies have been heating up at the plate and they face an unproven hurler here. Philadelphia had gone 8-2 to the over prior to yesterday's 8-3 win saying just under the total. The Phillies have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 games. They're facing Jefry Rodriguez here and this will be just his 2nd career MLB start and the ESPN cameras will be on the 24-year old hurler. In his two outings this season (one start) he has been hit hard by left-handed bats and the Phillies have quite a few of those as they are loaded with switch-hitters. Rodriguez allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his first career MLB start and this match-up should prove to be very entertaining for those of you whom enjoy seeing plenty of runs! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
06-24-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up Sunday should lead to an easy over. The Padres Eric Lauer shows the betting markets a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts but he does have a 1.50 WHIP during this stretch. The San Diego southpaw has been hit hard on the road this season. The Padres are 1-5 in his road starts this season and he has compiled a 5.83 ERA and 1.94 WHIP away from home. That means Lauer is allowing about 2 baserunners per inning when on the road. The wind will be blowing out at a good clip at AT & T Park Sunday and the Giants have won 5 of their last 7 games and averaged scoring about 5 runs per game in the victories. San Francisco will have Dereck Rodriguez on the mound in this one. The rookie right-hander is going through the "growing pains" of pitching in the majors and has allowed 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Rodriguez has a 6.28 ERA during this stretch and the Giants are 3-0 to the over in those 3 starts. The over is 19-10 in San Francisco's games versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Giants are 19-11 to the over in games against left-handed starters. SF also is 41-27 to the over in games where they are a home fave of -125 to -175 and that includes 8-4 this season. More of the same here on a hitter-friendly afternoon by the bay. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
|||||||
06-23-18 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Royals win with the only run in the top of the 9th) most will be looking for another under today. After all Lance McCullers has had great numbers this season as well as last year plus Ian Kennedy has a 1.99 ERA in his career starts versus the Astros. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over in this match-up but, as always, it is not without good reason! The fact is that Kennedy allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Houston. Also, on the road this season, Kennedy is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP! As for McCullers, he just faced the Royals Sunday and allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits in 6 innings. Kansas City getting a 2nd shot at him in the span of just a week will help them. Also, McCullers has not been as sharp overall in his last 5 starts as he was earlier this season. The Houston right-hander has a 4.91 ERA in his last 5 outings and the over has gone 4-1 in these 5 starts. Even with yesterday's result, the over is still 8-3 in the Astros last 11 games. Prior to the 1-0 loss yesterday, Houston had averaged 11.4 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their 10 previous games. The over is 8-4 in the Astros 12 Saturday games this season. Prior to yesterday's under, the over had gone 11-5-1 in Kansas City's last 17 games versus the Astros. Look for that trend to resume tonight after yesterday's unusual result. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
|||||||
06-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:05 ET - With yesterday's game going 13 innings, each team was forced to use extra bullpen. That is advantage #1 here. Advantage #2 here is that we're getting an extremely low total to work with here because Zach Greinke is on the mound. Certainly the Diamondbacks right-hander is a fantastic veteran pitcher but the numbers this season don't lie! He is much better at home than on the road and the markets just haven't caught up with this yet! Greinke is just 3-4 with an ugly 5.66 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in his 7 road starts this season! He enters this start on an "over streak" of 4 straight overs in his outings. He has given up 20 hits and walked 8 in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. That included a sub-par start versus the Pirates and that outing was at home! As for Joe Musgrove of Pittsburgh, the right-hander had a strong start at Arizona in that same series in which Greinke pitched. That is causing the markets to over-react to him here (keeping this total low) when the reality is that the Diamondbacks are likely to get much better at-bats against him now that they're seeing him for a 2nd game in a span of less than two weeks. The Pirates are 0-3 in Musgrove's last 3 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA during this stretch. The over is 16-5 in Arizona's road games with a money line between +125 and -125 this season. The over is 15-8 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and now this total has dropped to a 7.5 this morning adding even more value to this spot. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
|||||||
06-22-18 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I know the Yankees and Rays have both been trending under of late. However, this total has dropped to a 7.5 and I see a lot of value here considering that Tampa Bay is going with another "bullpen start" here and New York's starter is likely to get hit hard. The Rays are starting Ryne Stanek and he has impressive numbers but it doesn't matter that much as he'll only be in the game for an inning or two. The Yankees are starting CC Sabathia and he is coming off of his deepest start of the season. Coincidentally it was against the Rays. Though he held them to just 3 earned runs he did allow 10 hits in the game. In fact, the Yankees southpaw has now given up 21 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Tampa Bay. Don't be surprised when the Rays enjoy some success at the plate in this one tonight. TB's issue tonight will be on the mound and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games and allowed at least 4 runs in all 5 of those losses. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 7 games and have averaged 5.2 runs per game in the 6 victories. I am looking for at least a 5-4 type game here as both teams will enjoy success at the plate. The Yanks lineup too powerful to be shut down by the Rays parade of relievers in this game. The Rays lineup is very familiar with Sabathia and will continue to notch hits against him which will translate to runs. The Rays scored only a single run in their most recent home game but that was preceded by TB averaging 5.4 runs per game in their 8 prior home games and they'll get the job done again here at the plate at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
06-22-18 | A's -138 v. White Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #981 Friday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (-) @ Chicago White Sox @ 4:10 ET - The game between these teams was rained out yesterday so now they've got a double-header going Friday. I love the pitching edge in the first match-up with Sean Manaea over James Shields. The A's left-hander has held opponents to a .208 batting average this season. Indeed Manaea is very tough to hit and will be even tougher on a White Sox lineup that has no experience against him. As for the Chicago right-hander in this match-up, Shields has already allowed 7 homers in his 4 starts this month. He was surprisingly solid in May after a sub-par April but you knew it couldn't last forever. Interestingly, Shields seem to come unraveled when he gave up 3 homers in his first start of June and then complained about being sick of losing and, of course, lamented playing on a bad team that wasn't giving him run support. That has come back to bite him and the White Sox are only 1-4 in his last 5 starts. As teammates of Shields it is hard to get excited about playing ball when you know your starting pitcher doesn't believe in you. Shields has a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts and, for the month, he has allowed 26 hits (including 7 homers) in his 26 innings of work. Any type of bounce back today is unlikely as Shields has struggled mightily when facing Oakland in recent seasons. The White Sox right-hander has a 13.14 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the A's. This has the makings of a road rout and that is why I am willing to lay a moderate price to have the hotter team (4-0 L4) and better pitcher versus the cold team (0-7 L7) and lesser pitcher. The White Sox are 8-28 in day games this season! The Athletics are 20-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. 10* OAKLAND |
|||||||
06-21-18 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Max Scherzer has pitched extremely well for the Nationals. However, this total has gone from an opener of a 7.5 in some shops to now being as low as a 6.5 in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Orioles are likely to surprise people and score a few here and certainly the Nationals should pound Kevin Gausman. Even thought the Baltimore right-hander has some decent numbers on the season, he has been fading recently and has allowed 23 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings. As strong as Scherzer has been this season he has given up an average of 2 earned runs per start in his last 6 starts. In only 1 of those 6 starts did he allow less than 2 earned runs. The Orioles will step to the plate with some extra confidence in DC tonight because they've won 2 of their last 3 games and have averaged 6 runs on 10 hits per game over their last 4 games. As for the Nationals, they got shutout yesterday but had previously scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their 6 prior games. They'll bounce back here. The Nats had also reached double digits in hits in 4 of their 6 previous games. The over is 3-1 in Gausman's last 4 starts versus the Nationals. Also, Gausman has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Overall, in this 4 road games, the Baltimore right-hander has a 7.08 ERA! Take advantage of the very low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
06-21-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - The first 3 games of this 4-game series have been nuts and all 3 games flew over the total. That has caused the total on this game to move from an 11 to an 11.5 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the under here given this pitching match-up. Keep in mind, the last two games totaled 18 runs each. But out of those 36 runs scored only 5 runs were scored between the 6th and 9th innings. In other words, if we get good starts from the Mets Steven Matz and Rockies Kyle Freeland - and this is likely - we should be in good shape given the inflated total here. Matz has been fantastic on the road this season as he has a 1.55 ERA in his 6 road starts. Also, the Mets lefty has started versus the Rockies 4 times in his career and only one of those starts was a poor one and that outing did NOT occur at Coors Field. In fact, his lone career start at Coors Field was a respectable one. Overall, other than one poor outing, the other 3 starts that Matz has made versus Colorado have seen him compile a solid 3.18 ERA. Since he enters this start in top form I expect another strong outing here. As for the Rockies Freeland, he has been fantastic at home this season. The Colorado southpaw has compiled a 2.94 ERA in his 5 home starts this season and 80% of those have stayed under the total! His only career start versus the Mets (last month) stayed under the total and the starts Matz has made versus the Rockies have seen 3 of the 4 stay under the total. The under has cashed 13 of 21 in New York's day games this season and also 13 of 21 when the Mets are facing a team with a losing record. The under has cashed 13 of 19 when the Rockies are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Going against the masses here and expecting a very well pitched game here. 10* UNDER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
06-20-18 | A's v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Oakland A's @ 3:40 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the A's were 6-0 to the over in their 6 games prior to Tuesday's 4-2 extra inning win. Oakland will be starting Frankie Montas in this one. I am well aware that he has some impressive numbers this season. However, I am also aware that he had a 7.03 ERA last season and was hit at a .302 clip. Montas has made only 4 starts this season and he has been hit at a .262 clip so I am not completely sold on him just yet. The ball does carry better in day games at Petco Park. I feel we have good value as a result because San Diego also is starting a pitcher whom could struggle some here. Joey Lucchesi has good numbers on the season but is returning from a stint on the disabled list. Before being put on the shelf with an injury, the Padres lefty had given up 7 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers) in his last 3 starts. The A's are playing with a lot of confidence right now thanks to 3 straight wins and the over is 4-2 in Lucchesi's 6 home starts this season. The Padres have lost 3 straight games and the over is 3-1 this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
|||||||
06-20-18 | Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2:20 ET - With the wind blowing in today we're getting a very manageable number on this total. Both games of yesterday's double-header stayed under the total and that adds to the value here as these are two very potent lineups and they'll be ready to explode with a big game this afternoon. Keep in mind, the Cubs Jon Lester has struggled the last two times he has faced the Dodgers. Once was in the post-season last year and the other prior start was in the regular season in May. Neither went well for the Cubs southpaw. Although Los Angeles has a low batting average versus lefties this season, they lead the majors in doubles versus left-handers and that is why their slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling here. He has been pitching very well but the Cubs have a .340 on base percentage in day games this season and that is #1 in the National League. With a low posted total of only 7 runs here, I love the value with the over in this one. Too much potency in both lineups for this low of a total no matter the weather nor pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - These teams combined for 11 runs on 22 hits yesterday and I expect another slugfest tonight. The Diamondbacks are now 15-4 to the over this season in road games with a money line between +125 and -125. Arizona has averaged 10 hits per game in their last dozen games. The over is 8-3-1 in these 12 games. The over is 2-1 in the 3 road starts that the Dbacks Matt Koch has made this season. 2 of his last 3 starts have been good ones but Koch faced the Mets and Marlins in the 2 strong starts and both of those lineups are much weaker than the Angels lineup he will face today. The most recent road start Koch made saw him allow 7 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings of work. The over is 7-0-1 in the Angels last 8 games as they have not had an under since June 9th! Los Angeles has averaged 5.4 runs on 9.8 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Angels issue today however won't be at the plate it will be on the mound. Felix Pena will be making his first ever major league start. Out of the bullpen, since the start of the 2017 season, Pena has a 5.59 ERA and has given up 10 homers in 37 innings as a reliever during this time. Walks have also been an issue for Pena at the MLB level and that has played a role in his sub-par 1.57 WHIP since the start of last season. Simply put, the way the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats right now I do not seeing this going well at all for Pena. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play because both of the starting pitchers in this match-up have had their games trend under all season long. Each starter has made 14 starts this season and only 3 of Cole Hamels starts and 2 of Jason Hammel's starts have resulted in an over this year! This his helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Hammel had a great start versus Texas recently but they are likely to fare much better in a 2nd look at him just three weeks later. Note that Hammel has allowed 22 hits in 19 and 1/3 innings in his 3 starts since the strong outing versus the Rangers. The Royals right-hander has a 5.00 ERA on the season. As for Hamels, the Rangers southpaw is off of a strong start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his 3 prior starts and that included the start versus Kansas City. Now the Royals get a quick second look at him 3 weeks later and this time it is at Kauffman Stadium. Yesterday's game was 5-3 by the 4th inning and yet it still didn't go over the total. This is adding to the value here because the Rangers bullpen is certainly nothing special and the Royals bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. In other words, the lack of late scoring in yesterday's game was certainly unexpected. Today will make up for that. Also, the over is a long-term 35-20 in Rangers Tuesday games and that includes Texas going 8-2 to the over on Tuesdays this season. The Royals had gone over the total in 3 straight games entering this series. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
|||||||
06-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost back to back games and were held to a total of just 4 runs in their last two games. However, that is leading to line value here as Arizona had previously won 7 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 8.5 runs per game during this hot streak. The Angels are off of a 6-5 loss yesterday and the over is now 6-0 with one push their last 7 games. The over is 14-4 this season when the Dbacks are on the road and the money line is in a range of +125 to -125. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season. The Diamondbacks Zack Greinke has struggled in his past two starts and has a 5.91 ERA on the season in his 6 road starts. The over is 4-2 in his 6 starts away from home as he has been a different pitcher when on the road. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels here and he has good numbers on the season but has allowed a total of 5 homers in his last 3 starts. Barria was hit hard i his most recent start and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse. He won't be so fortunate here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
|||||||
06-17-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs won yesterday's game 6-3 making it an over or a push for all over players on the total. Chicago has now scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I feel the Cardinals Jack Flaherty is in trouble here. I know he has pitched well overall on the season but he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and this could be a sign of things to come for the rookie right-hander. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and the Cubs have plenty of confidence as they've been heating up and have won 7 of their last 10 games. Look for St Louis to also get their sticks going today as they face Jose Quintana. The Cubs left-hander was fortunate to not allow any earned runs (all 3 were unearned) in his start at St Louis last month. Quintana gave up 5 hits plus walked 4 in only 4 innings of work. He has allowed 4 homers in his last 15 and 2/3 innings versus the Cardinals. Both teams hit the ball quite well yesterday (19 hits) and I expect this to continue today. The Cards are very familiar with Quintana and though the Cubs are not familiar with Flaherty, there are some signs that the rookie's campaign is about to encounter a bumpy stretch of road. Prior to a strong start against a weak Padres lineup he allowed 10 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for a start along those lines here but look for the Cardinals to also pound Quintana in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
|||||||
06-17-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Top Play SPECIAL - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his last two starts! The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed 10 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his last two road starts! Oakland is 5-0 to the over their last 5 games after yesterday's game went over the total. That result also brought Los Angeles to 5-0 to the over (and one push) their last 6 games. Only 3 of Mengden's 9 home starts this season have resulted in an under. Amazingly, none of Heaney's 5 road starts have gone over the total even though he has a 5.68 ERA away from home on the season. This is helping to give line value here because this is a "false trend" as Heaney has not pitched well on the road an yet his starts away from home are 0-4 to the over (and one push) on the season. Take advantage of the low total here because both pitchers are struggling and both teams have been trending over of late. It is the perfect combo, particularly on a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out at Oakland Coliseum, for a slugfest. Both these pitchers have been giving up the long ball of late. Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 bombs and Mengen has given up 6 dingers in his last 2 starts! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
|||||||
06-16-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - These are two high-quality lineups here and, after yesterday's game finished with 13 runs, I expect the fireworks to continue at the plate on Saturday. I am well aware of Steven Wright's long-term consecutive innings scoreless streak but this is still just his 3rd start of the season. His first two came against the Tigers and Orioles and both of those clubs pale in comparison to the Mariners lineup! Also, Safeco Field may not result in the typical knuckleball movement that Wright relies on so much. As for the Mariners starter today, Wade LeBlanc gets the call. The southpaw has an impressive ERA so far this season but in his last 3 starts he has given up 4 homers. In his last two starts LeBlanc has given up 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 9 innings of work. The over is 8-2-1 in the Mariners last 11 games. The over is 9-3 in Seattle's Saturday games this season. This is Boston's 12th Saturday game of the season and, thus far, only 4 of them have stayed under the total. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play based on the low ERA each of these two pitchers have had this season but I feel they are both over-rated at this point. At the same time, I also feel this match-up features two of the more "dangerous" lineups in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
06-16-18 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total by the top of the 2nd inning. The over is now an incredible 14-1 in the Rockies last 15 games. Colorado continues to crush the ball and the Rangers, though not the team they once use to be, are still certainly a better hitting team at home than on the road. Also, Texas has fared better against southpaws than righties this season. The Rangers should "tee off" against Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 18 innings spanning those 3 outings. Texas counters with Mike Minor. I know the Rangers left-hander is off of a quality start versus the Astros but those types of outings have truly been rare for him. Minor has a 5.65 ERA on the season and has given up 11 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. The over is 3-0 in the Rangers last 3 games versus a southpaw starter and Texas is 13-7 to the over versus lefties on the season. The Rangers also are 8-4 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Rockies are 14-7 to the over this season in road games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125 this season. More of the same Saturday as the Rockies over trending continues rolling strong. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
|||||||
06-15-18 | Phillies +129 v. Brewers | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies lineup got a confidence-building boost with yesterday's big performance in the later innings. Philadelphia was clinging to a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 7th before they blew the game wide open in the eventual 9-3 win! Not only did the Phillies notch 13 hits in the game, they got hits from throughout the lineup. Now Jake Arrieta and the Phils get a rematch game against Brent Suter and the Brewers. Milwaukee took the first match-up and I love having a fantastic pitcher, and fierce competitor, like Arrieta as a dog in the rematch. Arrieta has a 2.97 ERA on the season. As for Suter, he has an ugly 5.96 ERA in his home games this season and, in my opinion, is being given way too much respect by the betting markets in this match-up. The Phillies are 5-2 this season as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season. Milwaukee is only 31-40 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs in recent seasons. The Brewers are off of back to back wins but had previously lost 7 of their last 11. The Phillies have now won 3 of their last 4 and they have a significant pitching edge here in my opinion. Arrieta, prior to rare back to back sub-par starts, had allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his 10 prior starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending over recently. The Reds are 9-3 to the over their last 12 games and the Pirates are 3-0 to the over their last 3 games. Great value being offered here with a manageable low total in this one considering a struggling Matt Harvey takes to the mound for the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Harvey has a 6.44 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 4-2 in those games. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has received great run support in his home starts this season and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Harvey enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. Kuhl enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati was off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 prior games. Pittsburgh was also off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games as well. The Reds are a long-term 19-10 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Cincy is also 40-21 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Pirates are 19-10 to the over this season when off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
|||||||
06-14-18 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 5-4 home loss, Yankees games have now stayed under the total in 8 straight games. Hence the title of this play as it most certainly is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I love fading the masses and this one definitely falls into that category. This total already dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and that is because of the Yankees "under streak" as well as the fact that the Rays Blake Snell is having a great season. The key to the value here is that this is a match-up issue for Snell. The Tampa Bay southpaw has allowed 9 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at Yankee Stadium. Snell will have his hands full here with a Yankees lineup that is fired up off of a loss last night. The over is 13-5 this season in Yanks games when they are off of a loss. Also, the over is 18-11 in Yankees games versus teams with a losing record this season. Tampa Bay is 6-1 to the over in Thursday games this season. The Rays are 6-2 to the over as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season. The Yankees are starting Domingo German in this one and he is still winless in his 6 starts this season and has compiled a 6.00 ERA in those outings. This is a contrarian play all the way but it is precisely the type of play that hits more often than not and I love the additional value here with the line move on the total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
06-14-18 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ Oakland A's @ 3:35 ET - Frankie Montas gets the start for the Athletics here and his numbers are impressive so far in his first 3 starts at the MLB level. However, his first start was at home against the Diamondbacks and Arizona has a batting average of .225 in road games which ranks them 14th out of the 15 NL teams. Then, the next two starts for Montas were each against the Royals and Kansas City has a slugging percentage of .377 this season which ranks them 14th out of the 15 AL teams. As you can see, Montas really hasn't been tested yet and he now is facing the World Champion Astros. After yesterday's 13-5 win, Houston has won 7 straight games and 5 of the 7 victories have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. The Astros have averaged scoring 7.1 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. The A's, on the other hand, have lost 6 of their last 10 games and Oakland has averaged scoring only 3.7 runs per game during this 10-game stretch. With Justin Verlander on the mound for Houston, things are highly unlikely to improve for the Athletics here. The Houston right-hander is 6-1 with a 0.96 ERA in his 7 road starts this season! The Astros have won 9 of Verlander's starts this season and all 9 victories came by a margin of 2 or more runs. This looks like a great spot for another one! 10* Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs -110 |
|||||||
06-13-18 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners won again yesterday with another big day at the plate and they are now 10-2 their last 12 games. Seattle has averaged 4.7 runs and 9.3 hits per game their last 13 games! The Angels have not been hitting as well but they are ranked 10th out of 30 in the majors for slugging percentage versus southpaws. The last time they faced Marco Gonzales they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. The over is 6-1-1 in the Mariners last 8 games. Garret Richards gets the start for the Angels here and he has struggled in day games this season with an 8.59 ERA and a 2.45 WHIP in his two starts. The way the Mariners are hitting, look for him to have an outing more like the two starts against the M's prior to the May outing this season. Not only is this a rather quick 2nd look for Seattle, Richards had allowed 7 earned runs in 12 innings (8 walks) in his 2 starts versus the Mariners that preceded that May outing. Take advantage of the low total here. The value is why this one earns top play status. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - The Cubs got shutout last night and I expect them to respond big this afternoon. The over is 36-24 in Chicago's Wednesday games in recent seasons and the Brewers Jhoulys Chacin has a 6.39 ERA in his last two starts versus National League foes. The Cubs Mike Montgomery has been successful in his first 3 starts this season but Milwaukee has proven to be a nemesis for him in recent meetings. He has faced them twice in the past 11 months and he was rocked both times. Montgomery compiled a 22.85 ERA versus the Brewers last season and he'll have his hands full again here. Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 5 games and has averaged 6.6 runs per game during this 5-game stretch. The Cubs had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 road games before being shutout yesterday. In other words, a bounce back is likely here. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montgomery's 5 career starts versus the Cubs. The over is 3-0 the last 3 times the Brewers faced a southpaw starter and another one flying over appears likely here given the lefty's long-term struggles versus this lineup. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
|||||||
06-12-18 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - Both these teams have been trending under lately but that has resulted in added value here. The total opened up at a 10 but dropped to a 9.5 even though this game has the makings of a slugfest. Chicago's Jame Shields recently complained about being tired of the rebuild with the White Sox. That was after the game where he allowed 3 solo homers. So how did he follow up that outing? Shields allowed 3 homers AGAIN in his very next start and it was a much uglier outing as he allowed 7 earned runs in 6 inning of work. That is 6 homers allowed in 2 starts for Shields and he is now 12-33 since the start of the 2016 season and he has compiled a 5.46 ERA during this 3-year stretch. With the White Sox he has allowed 68 homers in 56 starts! He'll be opposed by the Indians Adam Plutko in this one. Though he has had good numbers at the minor league level it has yet to translate to success in the bigs. Plutko was called up from AAA to make this start and the bad news for him is that his most recent MLB start was also against the White Sox. That means Chicago is getting a rather quick "second look" at him and they got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings the first time they faced him. Also. the Indians bullpen is dead last in the majors based on ERA while the ChiSox bullpen also ranks very low based on BAA as opponents are hitting .260 versus their relievers. Another reason to expect the slugfest today is Plutko has allowed 5 homers in his 3 MLB starts! 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
|||||||
06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - CC Sabathia is off of a solid outing although he did allow 2 homers in that start. However, the key to the value here is that in his 4 prior starts he gave up 20 runs (including 16 earned runs) over a span of just 18 and 1/3 innings. The Yankees lefty certainly hasn't been sharp and now he faces a quality Nationals lineup in this one. The over is 4-2 in Sabathia's 6 home starts this season. Washington's Tanner Roark has solid numbers this season but his style of pitching is precisely the style that could get him into trouble against a slugging lineup like the Yankees have. In his last 3 appearances (2 starts) he has a 5.54 ERA. The Yanks are off of a rare shutout loss Sunday night versus the Mets and they are 13-4 to the over this season when off of a loss. New York is also 9-4 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Yankees are 10-3 to the over as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Nationals are playing after an off day. Like the Yankees, the Nats are also off of a 2-0 shutout loss Sunday. Washington had previously scored an average of 7.7 runs and 11.3 hits per game in their 3 prior games. The Yankees are still 9-2 their last 11 games and have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 9 victories. You can see why I am expecting this one to get to double digits in runs scored! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
|||||||
06-11-18 | Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres @ 8:15 ET - This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and that is adding some additional value here. The Padres game stayed under the total yesterday but their 3-1 win gave them the series win. That was the 4th straight series win for San Diego and, as a result, this is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Padres have won 9 of their last 12 games. Also, the over is 9-4 their last 13 games as San Diego has averaged 5 runs per game their last dozen games. Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Padres here and he has struggled in both of his road starts this season. He has been roughed up in his last 4 starts overall as Lyles has compiled a 7.89 ERA in those outings. As you would expect with numbers like this, the over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The Cardinals game stayed just under the closing number yesterday but the over was 4-1 in their 5 prior games. The Cards did pound out 11 hits yesterday and they're averaging 9.5 hits per game their last 6 games. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound for this one and he is winless with a 4.21 ERA (and a .294 BAA) in his night starts this season. He also was winless with a 6.06 ERA (and .290 BAA) in night action last season so this is a long-term trend. Flaherty enters this start having been roughed up in each of his last two outings and both of those starts were at home too! 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
|||||||
06-11-18 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:10 ET - The Giants Madison Bumgarner is still trying to get back to 100% and this will be just his 2nd start. Though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his first start back he did have only 3 strikeouts plus allowed 8 hits in his 6 innings of work. The southpaw faces a Marlins team that hasn't been hitting great overall on the season but had averaged a respectable 9 hits per game in their dozen games prior to Sunday's action. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game their last 6 games even after a poor performance at the plate Sunday. They should bounce back against Bumgarner as he continues to try to work back into top form. We also can expect big runs from the Giants offense here. Wei-Yin Chen has given up 6 earned runs in 6 innings spanning his last two starts. The fact Chen hasn't been able to work deep into starts is also likely to be a major issue here because the Miami bullpen ranks deadlast in the National League with a 5.34 ERA on the season! Chen and the relievers will be exposed again here as they take on a Giants team playing with a lot of confidence right now. San Francisco has suddenly gotten hot and they've won 8 of their last 10 games. The Giants have averaged 5 runs per game their last dozen games and 10.3 hits per game in these 12 contests. San Francisco had 3 straight overs before yesterday's low-scoring shutout win. Also, the Giants are 15-9 to the over this season against left-handed starters. The Marlins were 8-4 to the over their last dozen games prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
|||||||
06-10-18 | Yankees -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 runs @ New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - The Mets have lost 10 straight home games after losing again yesterday! Of course I am not going to lay -250 with the Yankees on the run line but there is sufficient value to justify laying the -140 price on the run line in this one. Of course that means the Yankees have to win this game by 2 runs or more but that is quite likely given the dominance that Luis Severino has displayed both last season and this season as well. So far in 2018, Severino has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts. The Yankees are 12-1 in his 13 starts this season and only 3 of the 13 starts resulted in a 1-run game. I know Seth Lugo has good numbers on the season but that has mostly come out of the bullpen. He is being used as a spot starter here and he has only made 1 start this season and that lasted just 4 innings. The Yankees are 9-1 their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 5 runs per game. The Mets have averaged only 1.4 runs per game during their current 8-game losing streak. This one has the makings of a 5-1 or 6-2 type game as Severino gave up 0 earned runs while striking out 9 in 6 and 1/3 innings in his lone career start versus the Mets (last season). The Mets are a long-term 1-5 as a home dog of +175 or more and the Yankees 42 wins this season have featured 29 by 2 runs or more. That means roughly 70% of Yanks wins do come by 2 runs or more and I love the value here with the run line as the Mets slump should continue and the big road fave should dominate. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES Run Line |
|||||||
06-10-18 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Dallas Keuchel is known in recent seasons for pitching much better at home than on the road. That trend has held true versus the Rangers too as Keuchel has often shut them down at home but struggled on the road. Since the 2015 season, the Astros southpaw has a 4.71 ERA in starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington and Texas has hit well over .300 against him in those starts. Not only that, Keuchel enters this start in poor current form as he had a 6.75 ERA over his last 4 starts. He won't be the only lefty getting roughed up here as the Rangers hand the ball to Matt Moore. The Texas southpaw went winless in 5 May starts while compiling a 10.80 ERA. Moore than began this month by allowing 8 hits in 6 innings with only 2 strikeouts. He has given up 7 earned runs in 7 innings versus the Astros this season and the Astros have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 13 games. The over was 6-1 in Houston's last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed under the total. The Rangers have averaged 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Texas has gone 9-2 to the over in Moore's 11 starts this season and the Rangers over is 8-1 (89%) in his starts when they are an underdog. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
|||||||
06-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:15 ET - With last night's game flying over the total, Colorado is now on a 9-0 run to the over their last 9 games. Yes, this total is a big one and that is what will make many uncomfortable with the over here but these are the kind of situations that win. Where others fear to tread is often where you find the best path to tread in your quest for a winning ticket. The Rockies Chad Bettis has a 7.24 ERA at Coors Field in his 5 starts there this season. The Colorado right-hander might rather be facing a team other than the Diamondbacks too! In his 10 games (7 starts) versus Arizona in his career he has an 8.44 ERA. The good news for Bettis and Rockies fans alike is the fact that he should get plenty of run support in this match-up. That is because the Colorado lineup will be "teeing off" against Matt Koch. It will be the first-ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field for the inexperienced 27-year old right-hander. First starts at Coors Field rarely go well for young (or inexperienced MLB pitchers) and I expect Koch will receive a rough introduction here on a hot day at Coors Field with very dry air and an early start (5:15 PM local time) meaning the ball should carry very well here with temperatures still in the 90s at first pitch here and ultra dry air. Koch is off of his best start this season but he faced a Miami team that is struggling badly. In his 3 prior starts the Diamondbacks right-hander gave up 14 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings! Arizona has averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. Colorado has averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 13 games. The over is 14-4 this season in Diamondbacks games where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
06-09-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 13 runs and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in the Reds last 8 games. Yes, the Cardinals Michael Wacha had a no-hitter going until the 9th inning of his most recent start but pitchers often fall well short in their next start after a stellar outing like that. Yes, the Reds Luis Castillo has good stuff but the full-season numbers don't lie and he has a 5.64 ERA on the year and the over is 8-4-1 in his 13 starts YTD. Castillo gave up 7 hits and walked 4 in just 5 innings when he faced the Cards earlier this season. Also, Wacha will be giving the Reds a 3rd look at him as he has already had 2 starts versus Cincinnati this season. With that said, it could be a tough one too for Wacha as Cincy is really swinging the bats well right now. Cincinnati has averaged 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games but, even more impressive than that is the fact they've averaged 11.2 hits per game their last dozen games! The Cardinals have scored at least 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. The Reds are 78-48 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is now on a 39-18 in Reds June games after another high-scoring one last night. Look for another one this afternoon as it will be a hot one at Great American Ball Park and the ball carries particularly well in day games at this ball park. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-08-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - Hitter friendly park and a match-up of two pitchers likely to struggle. Don't be fooled by the big total posted on this one. It is justified fully. The Reds Matt Harvey enjoyed a brief resurgence when he first came over to the Reds from the Mets. However, he has quickly faded in Cincinnati. With yesterday's 7-5 Reds win over the Rockies, the over is now 7-0 in Cincinnati's last 7 games. As for Harvey, he had a good start versus Pittsburgh but, in his other 3 starts since mid-May, he has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 15 innings of work. Luke Weaver gets the start for St Louis here and he is off of a solid start. However, he previously had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his 8 prior starts. He'll be facing a Reds lineup that is much more confident when at home. As for the Cardinals lineup, they should have no trouble with the offerings of the very inconsistent Harvey. The Cards game stayed under the total yesterday but that was with a solid Miles Mikolas on the mound. Today their hurler, Weaver, gives up plenty but the Cards also strike for plenty against Harvey. The result should be a back and forth slugfest at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. The weather will be very warm and the ball should carry well, as per usual, in Cincinnati. Look for the Reds OVER to make it 8 in a row. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-07-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays went 13 innings without scoring yesterday as they lost 3-0 to the Yankees. That was certainly an "ugly" over play for me but I am coming right back with it today. The Jays are happy that the Yankees have left down and will welcome a struggling Orioles team to Toronto tonight. The over is 11-6 this season in Blue Jays games versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the over is 3-1-1 this season when Toronto is a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Only 2 of the Jays 8 Thursday games so far this season have stayed under the total. The Orioles are also off of a pitchers duel yesterday (a free pick winner for me with the under) as they beat the Mets 1-0 Wednesday afternoon. However, Baltimore is 9-4 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Orioles David Hess certainly has respectable numbers on the season but he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts and he was roughed up in a road start at Boston. This will be just the 3rd road start for the rookie right-hander and I expect another ugly one like he had at Fenway Park. As for his counterpart tonight, lefty Jaime Garcia gets the start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled badly this season, particularly against right-handed hitters and the Orioles are loaded on that side of the plate. Also, he has a 6.47 ERA on the season including an ugly 8.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. After all those zeroes for inning after inning for each of these two teams' games yesterday, I will go contrarian today and look for a ton of runs as that is so often what happens after game like that. This is particularly true when the pitching match-up is like this one. Hess is still an unproven rookie and Garcia is "proven" but he is proven in this way: he struggles more often than not! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
06-07-18 | Phillies +123 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - The Phillies took a 5-3 lead to the bottom of the 9th and then lost 7-5 last night. Look for the bounce back here. Not only is Philadelphia 18-8 this season when off of a loss, they are also one of the top teams in the majors (#4 out of 30) in drawing bases on balls. The Phillies have some patient hitters that work the count well and Tyler Chatwood continues to struggle with allowing too many walks. The Cubs right-hander has walked 15 in his last 3 starts and those outings have spanned less than 11 innings of work! Overall, Chatwood has struggled badly with a 7.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Nick Pivetta and he has been pitching quite well of late. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 1.93 ERA over his last 5 starts. Pivetta has racked up 35 strikeouts in the 28 innings spanning these 5 outings. The only time Pivetta faced the Cubs he gave up 3 runs in the first inning but nothing else the rest of the way. Also, that 3-run first was fueled by a throwing error that led off the inning. All balls put in play in that inning were hit on the ground and, in other words, it was a bit of a "fluke" 3-run first. I like the fact that the Cubs have only seen Pivetta that one time and I feel he gives the Phillies a big pitching edge over the struggling Chatwood in this match-up. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
06-06-18 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - The under is 2-0 in Sal Romano's 2 starts versus the Rockies and 2-1 in Jon Gray's 3 starts versus the Reds but I am going contrarian here with the over. The fact is that both of these pitchers are in poor current form and that is resulting in great line value here with the low total posted on this game. Romano has an ugly 11.21 ERA in his last 4 starts. Gray has an ugly 9.33 ERA in his last 4 starts. With yesterday's game totaling 15 runs, Cincinnati is now on a 5-0 run to the over and Colorado is on a 6-0 run to the over. The Rockies have averaged 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Reds have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 4 home games. The ball is known for carrying well at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The over is a long-term 77-48 in Reds game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. June games for Cincy are now 36-18 to the over the past 2+ seasons. Only 1 of Gray's 5 road starts this season have resulted in an under. The over is 4-2 in Romano's 6 home starts this season. Also, these guys just faced other at Coors Field and each of them gave up at least 4 earned runs in that one. I expect more of the same here based on the way these two pitchers are currently throwing. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-06-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Even though there were not a lot of hits in yesterday's game (particularly from the Blue Jays) the teams did combine for 4 homers as each team hit a pair of long balls. There should be a lot more of that coming Wednesday with this pitching match-up. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts and now faces the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees Sonny Gray has allowed a round-tripper in each of his last two starts and also has struggled versus Toronto. In his last two starts versus the Blue Jays, Gray has given up 12 hits plus walked 7 as he has allowed 6 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings. None of Gaviglio's 3 starts have resulted in an under and only 3 of Gray's 11 starts this season have stayed under the total. Despite yesterday's game staying just under the total, the over is still 6-2 in the Jays last 8 games and that was just the 4th under in the Yankees last 11 road games. Toronto has played 35 games versus a right-handed starter this season and only 12 stayed under the total. The Yankees are 18-7 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Look for another one here as the homers keep flying at the Rogers Centre. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
06-05-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are off of a double header yesterday so some will shy away from having anything to do with them here. That is where the contrarian aspect to this comes in. That's because I fully expect a very focused effort from the Yankees at the plate in this one after they lost the 2nd game of yesterday's twin-bill by a score of 4-2. The Yankees had won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game before that loss last night. Tuesday they'll take advantage of facing a struggling Marco Estrada. The Blue Jays right-hander hasn't won a game since April 20th. Also, in his last 4 starts he has taken the loss in all 4 while compiling an ugly 6.53 ERA. Going even further back, note that Estrada has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. The good news for Blue Jays fans is that they also should enjoy a lot of success at the plate in this one. Toronto will take advantage of facing a struggling CC Sabathia. The Yankees left-hander has given up 20 runs (16 earned) in his last 18 and 1/3 innings! In his last 3 starts Sabathia has walked 9 in only 14 and 1/3 innings of work. The lefty has only gone more than 5 innings 3 times in his 10 starts. The over is 18-6 this season in Yankees games versus teams with a losing record. Also, the over is 24-13 in Yanks games versus a right-handed starter. This will be the 30th game this season in which the Blue Jays have faced a team with a winning record and so far ONLY 10 of those games have resulted in an under. Look for a slugfest north of the border. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
06-04-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 106 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Both teams are off of series sweeps as the Diamondbacks faced the miserable Marlins and the Giants faced the slumping Phillies. That said, there is great value here because we have a low total to work with and yet both of these lineups are loaded with confidence right now. Arizona had been slumping badly at the plate but they've now won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this solid stretch. The Giants have won 4 straight and have averaged a respectable 4.5 runs per game and a solid 10.3 hits per game in their last 8 games. San Francisco should enjoy success against Zack Godley here. The Giants will be getting their 2nd look at him this season. Though Godley was successful in the first meeting, he was hit hard by San Francisco when he faced them in late September. Considering he has a 5.81 ERA in road starts this season he is unlikely to again enjoy success at AT & T Park here. The Diamondbacks also should have a big day at the plate here as they face lefty Derek Holland. Arizona has a .469 slugging percentage versus southpaw pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 MLB teams! Holland is 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA in his 8 night starts this season. This is no fluke either as the 3 prior years he went a combined 10-18 with a 6.40 ERA and a .303 BAA in evening outings. He was matched up with Godley in that prior start which did stay under the total but the rematch, as you can see per the above, is likely to turn out much different. Neither pitcher is currently in good form. The over is 11-4 this season when Arizona is on the road and the money line ranges from +125 to -125. Look for another one here as both starters struggle and both lineups get revenge in the rematch from April 9th. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
|||||||
06-03-18 | A's v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 2:15 ET - I was handed a tough push with this match-up yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with the over today. Jakob Junis gets the start for the Royals and the A's did face him in August so this won't be their first look at him. Also, the KC right-hander gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings in his most recent home start plus allowed 7 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his prior start at Kauffman Stadium. Oakland has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 games so they've got plenty of confidence at the plate right now. The Athletics issue however will be their starting pitcher. Even though the Royals have never faced Daniel Gossett it will prove not to matter because he is struggling. Gossett is now 4-14 with a 6.10 ERA and a .305 BAA in his 22 MLB starts. Though he has pitched well at the AAA level, like so many other hurlers before him, he is finding out just how tough it is to make the jump from the minors to the majors. The A's have played 15 road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and, so far, only 3 (20%) have resulted in an under! There have been 3 pushes and the other dozen games went 9-3 (75%) to the over and this match-up is conducive to yet another one flying over the total. The Royals have now scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
|||||||
06-03-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #906 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:15 ET - You want to talk about a team really wanting a game, this is it! The Cardinals faced rookie Nick Kingham in his MLB debut and he took a perfect game into the 7th inning against them. Of course, since then, Kingham has quickly come back down to earth. Pitching at the MLB level so much tougher than the minors and, in his 3 starts since then the Pirates right-hander has a 5.29 ERA and allowed 3 homers. Keep in mind this will be just the 5th start of his MLB career and it will be the first time he is facing a team for a second time. Also, this time he faces the Cards in St Louis instead of at home in Pittsburgh. Kingham has made only one other road start this season and he allowed 2 homers in that outing at Milwaukee. Keep in mind, he got rocked at a .396 clip in spring training. The Cards have this game circled as an opportunity to get payback and they've also got the right guy on the mound to do it. Michael Wacha gets the start here and St Louis is 6-1 in his home starts this season. Wacha has a 4-0 record in those outings and has 38 strikeouts against just 15 walks in his 40 and 2/3 innings at Busch Stadium this season. The Cards right-hander has allowed just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts versus Pittsburgh. This line opened up as high as -152 but dropped to as low as a -125 which is offering great value on the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is 1-7 this season as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 and also an ugly 5-11 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Cardinals improve to 7-3 in Sunday games on the season. 10* Top Play ST LOUIS |
|||||||
06-02-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:15 ET - This total moved down from an 11 to a 10.5 which means we just need 5 runs from each team and we've got a guaranteed winner. Of course that's because the game can't end with anything less than a 6-5 once we're knotted at 5 apiece. Why would I expect each team to get to 5 runs here? Well the Rockies have averaged nearly 7 runs per game so far on this homestand and only 1 of the 7 games thusfar has seen Colorado score less than 5 runs. As for the Dodgers, their bats are starting to heat up and they've scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. We're getting value because Los Angeles rookie Walker Buehler is having a great season and German Marquez is off of back to back solid outings for the Rockies. The key here is to dig a little deeper though and there is much more "under the surface" of this one. Buehler has made only 2 true road starts as the 3rd one was really a neutral site game in Mexico. That said, note that he allowed 13 hits in 10 innings spanning the two true road starts and those were at Miami and San Francisco. Neither the Marlins or Giants are nearly as imposing (not even close) as the Rockies at Coors Field. This is such a hitter friendly venue and tends to be very tough on rookie hurlers. It also helps the Colorado lineup that they just saw Buehler less than 2 weeks ago in LA. As for Marquez, he was great against Los Angeles in that same outing Buehler pitched in 2 weeks ago but that was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. However, now Marquez is back home and even after a RARE strong home start (versus a horrible Reds team I might add), he still has an ugly 7.54 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in home starts this season. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 road games for Los Angeles and 3-0 in Colorado's last 3 home games. Also, the over is 24-12 in LA's games versus right-handed starters this season and I look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Dodgers Saturday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
06-02-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9 and, as expected, markets are jumping on the under and that has this total down to an 8.5 and we might even see a few spots end up at an 8 on this one. I will gladly fade the masses here. The Tigers pen has performed surprisingly well the past two days and the Blue Jays pen was called into play in the 2nd inning yesterday and had an unusually strong performance. Toronto and Detroit both are near the bottom of the majors for batting average allowed by relievers as both bullpens are allowing .262 BAA on the season. The Tigers bullpen has a 4.40 ERA which is better than only 2 other American League teams. The starters in this match-up are J.A. Happ and Matthew Boyd. I know Happ has good numbers this season and of late. However, in his last visit to Comerica Park he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Happ will be dealing with a confident Tigers lineup as Detroit is on a 7-2 run and has averaged 5 runs and 10 hits per game during this solid run. As for Tigers starter Boyd, the Blue Jays lineup (just like the Detroit lineup) is facing a left-handed starter for the 3rd straight game. This type of repetition tends to favor the hitters. The Jays slugging percentage in day games this season is .424 which is 9th out of all 30 teams. Boyd's career began with the Toronto organization and sometimes pitchers try to "overdo it" when facing their former team. He has walked 10 plus allowed 4 homers in his 3 starts spanning just 16 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays. So the Jays will surely "get theirs" this afternoon and one final note about the Tigers - they are hitting .279 versus lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League! Happ will have his hands full with this confident lineup today and none of his four road starts have resulted in an under this season. The over is 16-9 in Toronto's road games this season and 10-6 in Tigers games versus left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
06-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to a 9 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move! This game should fly over the total. The reason that Blaine Hardy has been a reliever for most of his MLB career is because he can't get right-handed batters out consistently. Seriously they have given him hell through his career so he has been better used as a "lefty specialist" out of the bullpen. Now, as a starter, certainly match-ups come up that will again "give him hell" and this is one of them. The Blue Jays lineup is loaded with right-handed bats and switch-hitters so Friday it is likely that he'll face almost all right-handed sticks and that is not going to turn out well for him. Yes, Hardy had a good start in his most recent outing but prior to that he was hit hard in each of his first two starts and the betting markets are over-reacting to one good start for him and one good start for Jaime Garcia. The Blue Jays southpaw pitched surprisingly well versus the Phillies but previously had walked 8 batters in less than 9 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. Even with the strong road start at Philadelphia, Garcia has a 7.30 ERA on the road this season and he'll struggle at Detroit this evening. The Tigers have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The over is 10-5 in Tigers games versus left-handed starters this season. The over is 7-3 in Toronto's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Friday |
|||||||
06-01-18 | Yankees -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees have won 26 of their last 33 games and 17 of those 26 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Of course I don't lay big money line prices so that is why I am utilizing the run line here to get the Yankees at a pick'em price. They should win big here as the Orioles are having a miserable season and 29 of their 39 losses on the year have come by 2 or more runs. I know that the Yankees Sonny Gray has been up and down this season but he is a groundball pitcher and he got a bunch of groudball outs in his most recent road start (4 hits in 8 innings at Kansas City) and in his only start against these Orioles this season (4 hits in 6 innings). Couple that with the fact that Baltimore is 3-9 their last 12 games and has been to 3 runs or less in 11 of those 12 games and you can see why I am expecting Gray to have a good start here. As for the O's Andrew Cashner, he is in trouble against the Bronx Bombers. He has had success against the Yankees in recent meetings but his current form suggests this is going to be a very tough outing for him. Cashner has given up 24 hits plus walked 10 in the less than 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Orioles have lost 8 of the 11 starts Cashner has made this season and 7 of those 8 defeats have come by at least 2 runs. 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Phillies +163 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 163 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:35 ET - The value here is way too strong to ignore. Yes, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw on the mound but he is returning from biceps tendinitis and his velocity had been down. This is his first start in a month and he has had to work through some mechanical adjustments. Don't get me wrong, the big southpaw is still a fantastic pitcher but there is little margin for error here because he is facing the Phillies top pitcher. Aaron Nola is on his way to an All-Star berth this season as he has been nothing short of phenomenal. He has added a devastating to change up to an already devastating curveball and the Dodgers are likely to struggle at the plate here. The Phillies won't have to score much for it to be "enough" here for Nola. He is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the season. The Dodgers are just 2-5 in Kershaw's 7 starts this season and he allowed 4 earned runs when he faced the Phillies in September while Nola allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 innings when he faced the Dodgers during that same series. Los Angeles is only 4-10 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The Phillies are 16-6 this season when off of a loss. Of course a pitchers' duel is predicted here and the Phils are 6-2 in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season while the Dodgers are an ugly 3-8 this season in home games with an O/U set at 7 or less runs. Grab the big dog value here. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA money line |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Tigers @ 1:10 ET - As a general rule, I particularly like to look for overs in games where the home team is pitcher is likely to struggle. That's because home teams do tend to hit better in their own venue and so if the road team is also putting up big runs these are generally the types of games that get "crazy" and that is what I am expecting at Comerica Park early Thursday. The Angels are starting southpaw Andrew Heaney and he has had a strong campaign thus far. However, the Tigers do rank 5th in the majors (out of 30) with a .267 batting average versus left-handed pitching on the season. Very warm in Detroit this afternoon with the wind pushing toward the left-field corner so the ball should carry quite well off of right-handed bats in particular and there will be plenty of those in the lineup for both teams as the Tigers are also starting a southpaw here. Ryan Carpenter gets the call for Detroit and the 6'5 lefty has an 8.31 ERA in limited MLB action this season but also has struggled in the minors. His ERA this season with AAA Toledo is a 5.72 and the two prior seasons with AAA Albuquerque Carpenter compiled a 5.17 ERA. All those stats against minor league hitters keep in mind so it is no wonder he has struggled at the MLB level. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen whose 4.53 ERA ranks them 27th out of all 30 MLB teams. While the Angels pen ranks higher, the Los Angeles relievers do rank in the lower half of MLB for BAA as opponents have hit .254 against them on the season. Yesterday the Angels pen got roughed up but the game still managed to stay under the total. Today don't be surprised if both starters "give it up" and so too will the pens! In Angels road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season, only 4 of 12 have stayed under the total. The Tigers are 11-6 to the over this season against teams with a winning record and also 10-4 to the over when facing a left-handed starter! 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
05-30-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:40 ET - The Reds bullpen has improved as the season has gone on but I still don't trust them. Couple that with the fact that Sal Romano is likely to get knocked out early in this one and you have a great situation for taking advantage of a low total and grabbing the over. Cincinnati's Romano is 0-3 with an insane 12.80 ERA and 2.69 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He won't be able to stop a Diamondbacks offense that has taken advantage of facing the Reds sub-par pitching by exploding for 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Yes, it is true that Arizona only had 4 hits yesterday (but 5 runs) and overall the Diamondbacks had been struggling at the plate for an extended stretch. However, facing Romano in a severe down cycle is going to allow Arizona to again explode at the plate. Keep in mind, they rocked him last July for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Unlike Romano, the Dbacks Pat Corbin has been very strong on the mound this season. However, he has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati was averaging 5 runs per game in their 7 games prior to last night's game in which they managed only 2 runs. Look for the Reds (#5 in the NL for on base percentage versus left-handers) to bounce back against the southpaw Corbin. The over is 4-0-1 in Corbin's 5 starts this month! Each of Romano's last 3 starts have been games that have totaled at least 9 runs. The over is a long-term 35-23 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I am calling for another one here on Wednesday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
05-30-18 | Cardinals -114 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:10 ET - Alex Reyes gets the start for the Cardinals here and the young right-hander pitched extremely well for the Cards back in 2016 before having to have Tommy John surgery. While that is always tough to come back from his surgery was 15 months ago and the rehab starts in the minors (single A all the way through triple A) indicate he is "more than ready" here. Reyes threw 23 scoreless innings allowing only 7 hits while striking out 44. This is true and absolute dominance and, keep in mind, in 2016 at the MLB level Reyes held opponents to a .201 BAA while going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA. The Brewers have never faced him and he will be tough on them. As for Milwaukee's Junior Guerra, the Cardinals are familiar with him and the Brewers are just 2-3 in his 5 career starts versus St Louis. Guerra has compiled a 4.74 ERA those starts with a mediocre 1.46 WHIP. The Cards will look to build off yesterday's 6-1 win and they have the right pitching match-up to do just that. The Cardinals are 17-9 in divisional games this season while the Brewers are only 11-14 in divisional games. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
05-29-18 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's game was another game at Coors Field filled with wasted opportunities. The total did drop to an 11 at most spots yesterday but I did release at 11.5 and I lost the play. That said, I am coming right back with the same play today as all the "close calls" at Coors with the overs have led to value here. Yes, the Rockies have trended under of late and on the season. However, this total opened at an 11.5 and has already drop to 11 which, as we saw yesterday, is a key number with baseball totals. That's because a 5-5 game can't end with anything less than a 6-5 final and, once again today, I expect both teams to get at least 5 runs. The Giants just saw the Rockies Kyle Freeland and Colorado just saw San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija. Both hurlers fared well in their respective starts but that was at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Now, at hitter-friendly Coors Field (and having just seen these hurlers) the lineups hold a big edge tonight. The last time Freeland faced the Giants at Coors Field he allowed 5 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits in just 3 and 1/3 innings. The last time Samardzija faced the Rockies at Coors Field he allowed 8 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Both of these outings occurred within the past 12 months so it is not as if it is "ancient history" either. The over is 5-1-1 in Samardzija's 7 starts this season. The Rockies are one of the top hitting home teams in the majors and the Giants are among the top teams in the National League for batting average versus lefties. The over is 13-8 in San Franisco's games versus left-handed starters this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
05-29-18 | Angels -121 v. Tigers | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Angels, despite the loss yesterday, are still 17-8 on the road this season. Also, as a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175, Los Angeles has gone 9-1 this season. This line opened up in the -150 range and has dropped to the -120 range as of game day morning. That has led to fantastic line value here in my opinion. I am going contrarian and going against the move as Nick Tropeano gets the start for the Angels and the Tigers have never faced him. Also, he has a 2.33 ERA on the road this season and should certainly outduel Detroit's Michael Fulmer here. The Tigers right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work when he most recently faced the Angels and that was less than year ago. Also, Fulmer gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent home start. Overall, he has an unimpressive 6.14 ERA in his last 4 starts. Detroit won Fulmer's most recent start and that does hold some significance here as the Tigers have not won back to back Fulmer starts a single time this season. Detroit, in fact, had lost 3 straight Fulmer starts prior to winning his most recent one. The Tigers are 8-17 in night games this season and the Angels are 9-2 this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
|||||||
05-28-18 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass Late - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:10 ET - 2013: 8.10 ERA, .345 BAA; 2014: 10.06 ERA, .367 BAA; 2015: 4.99 ERA, .302 BAA; 2016: 4.44 ERA, .291 BAA; 2017: 3.45 ERA, .256 BAA; 2018: 6.89 ERA, .317 BAA. Think it is tough to pitch at Coors Field? Just ask the Rockies Chad Bettis. Those stats above are his season by season numbers when pitching at Coors Field. I have gotten burned recently with overs involving Colorado but won with the Giants over yesterday and I am coming right back with the Rockies over today. San Francisco sends rookie southpaw Andrew Suarez to the mound for this one. This will be his 7th start of the season. None of those first 6 starts were at hitter-friendly Coors Field and yet Suarez checks in with a 1-4 record and 5.69 ERA in his rookie campaign. Even more concerning is the fact that he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Suarez is having trouble getting the proper movement on his pitches to fool major league hitters. Now, pitching in the thin air of Colorado, that task for the lefty becomes even more daunting! The Giants game yesterday "only" had 11 runs but 23 men were left on base in that game! The Rockies game yesterday had "just" 10 runs but the teams combined to go an ugly 3 for 13 with runners in scoring position and the Reds lined into a double play to end the game with the bases loaded in the top of the 9th inning. All 3 in the series with the Reds were "close calls" with Colorado's games not going over the total. Admittedly that series was not kind to me but with this pitching match-up Monday and with the way these two teams have swung the bats the last couple days, this evening's match-up should fly over the total. Neither starting pitcher has had an under in any of their last 3 starts. San Francisco is 7-3 to the over this season in road games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. This is the Rockies 8th Monday game so far this season and so far only 2 have stayed under the total. This one won't stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:05 ET - We had to wait for the total to come out on this one because of the game being played at Wrigley Field and it was worth the wait as the value here demands the Top Play rating. Amazingly, yesterday's game didn't go over the total despite the Giants scoring 5 runs. The Cubs bats should bounce back today and there is every reason to believe the Giants again push across at least 5 runs here. The San Francisco sticks will take on a struggling Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs right-hander has a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts as walks have been a major issue. Too many free passes on a warm hitter-friendly evening at Wrigley Field will likely lead to trouble and Chatwood also has averaged just 4 and 1/3 innings per start his last 3 starts. The Giants also are sending a struggling hurler to the mound for this one. San Francisco left-hander Ty Blach gets the start and he is also averaging only about 4 innings per start his last 3 starts and he has a 7.11 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over these 3 outings. Neither of Blach's two career starts versus the Cubs have stayed under the total. Each of Chatwood's two starts where his team hosted the Giants last year went over the total. Also, the over is 4-1 in Chatwood's home starts this season and all signs point to another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - Really brutal beats for "over players' in the first two games of this series. That said, don't let the even bigger number on Sunday's total scare you away. It is fully justified as the Rockies German Marquez is winless with a 10.34 ERA and 2.43 ERA in his 4 home starts this season! As for Cincinnati's Matt Harvey, he has enjoyed "new life" with the Reds but he did allow 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work in his most recent road start as a Red. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 6 innings of work in his most recent start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The good news for Cincinnati fans is that Harvey has his confidence back since coming over from the Mets as he needed a new environment. The bad news for Reds fans is that Coors Field is the worst possible place for a "fragile" pitcher to start. This is not a knock on Harvey overall but I am merely stating that things are likely to unravel quickly for him here given his past. This should quickly turn into a slugfest based on warm afternoon conditions, very dry air, and two pitchers destined to struggle. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Reds Sunday games and 4-1 in Harvey's road starts as the home struggles for Marquez continue as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
05-25-18 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:40 ET - High temperatures in the upper-80s expected in Denver this afternoon. That means a very mild evening at Coors Field for this one and the air, as is typically the case, will be very dry with great carry on balls put into play! The Rockies Jon Gray is off of back to back rough starts and his most recent outing was at pitcher-friendly San Francisco so that certainly doesn't bode well for his odds of a decent start at hitter-friendly Colorado tonight. Gray has now given up 11 earned runs on 19 hits in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. He allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work in his last start versus the Reds. Cincinnati comes into this game having swung the bats quite well in taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates in a series that wrapped up yesterday. The Rockies bats have not fared well recently but they were on the road. Results at the plate will improve now that they are back at home. Facing a struggling Sal Romano should certainly help matters. The Reds right-hander has allowed 13 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. Romano was hit hard plus walked 6 in just 5 innings in his most recent start. He has struggled with fastball command while Gray has struggled with his fastballs simply being too hittable of late - .591 batting average against his fastballs last two starts! The over is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 road games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
05-25-18 | Royals +133 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Friday 10* Top Play Kansas City Royals Money Line (+) @ Texas Rangers @ 8:05 ET - I like to grab underdogs against a bad team as long as I have the pitching edge and that is the case here. The Royals Eric Skoglund had a tough time versus the Yankees (after he began with 3 scoreless innings) but of course the Yanks lineup is head and shoulders above this Rangers lineup. Texas has particularly struggled against left-handed pitching as they are hitting only .229 versus southpaws on the season and yesterday's loss dropped them to 5-10 on the season versus lefties. Note too that Kansas City's Skoglund had compiled a 3.21 ERA in his 2 prior starts before struggling with the Bronx Bombers. Unlike the Rangers lineup, the Royals are hitting .261 versus southpaws on the season and that ranks them 7th out of all 30 teams. KC will take advantage of a struggling Mike Minor. The Rangers left-hander has "led" Texas to 3 straight losses in his starts as, even though he has piled up some strikeouts, when contact is being made he is getting crushed! Minor has an 8.22 ERA in his last 3 starts and he allowed 3 homers in 7 innings in his most recent home start. The Royals have won 3 straight games and are 25-17 the past 2 seasons when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Rangers are just 9-18 in home games this season and they continue to be over-priced at home. 10* KANSAS CITY |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total has gone from an 8 to a 7 as of early game day morning and let me remind everyone this is an American League game, these are good pitchers but certainly not Cy Young candidates, and there is reason to believe both could struggle some here. Boston's Rick Porcello has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Now I know he has enjoyed success against the Rays this season but they have gotten to him for 3 earned runs in each of the past two starts and he is now facing them for a 4th time this season! A lot of repetition tends to favor the hitters much more than the pitchers. As for Tampa Bay's Blake Snell, he has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. Now I know those outings were on the road and this one is at home where he has enjoyed success this season. However, the Red Sox are now getting a 3rd look at Snell on the young season and their lineup has been surging of late. Boston has won 8 of its last 11 games and that is thanks in part to run production of at least 4 runs in 10 of those 11 games. Though the TB sticks have been quieter so far in this series, they are still averaging 4.5 runs per game their last 11 games. There is truly no reason this games shouldn't end up being a 5-4 type game and of course that means great value with this low total. The over is 9-2 this season when the Rays enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. There have not been any unders in Porcello's last 3 starts and the over is 6-3 in Snell's last 9 starts. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Mariners v. A's -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #910 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland Athletics Money Line (-) vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:35 ET - The A's Josh Lucas is making his first career MLB start and is unlikely to work deep in this game as he will be on a rather strict pitch count. However, the A's were off Monday and then their starting pitcher gave them 7 innings both Tuesday and Wednesday. In other words, the Oakland bullpen is in good shape heading into this match-up and there plenty of available arms to support Lucas. As for Mariners starter Felix Hernandez, he has a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 starts and also has a 7.27 ERA on the season in starts away from home. He has been fortunate in terms of the run support he has received because his numbers certainly show that Hernandez is undeserving of a 3-1 road record on the season. The point is that this is helping give us some line value here because the A's should hit him hard in a day game in their own park. Nice set up here. Oakland has suffered back to back one run losses and is looking to avoid the sweep here. Keep in mind the Athletics entered this series having won 6 of their last 7 games. The A's are 7-2 the last 9 times they've entered game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. They bounce back again here. 10* OAKLAND |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Braves v. Phillies -116 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #956 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - In true contrarian fashion I am going against a major line move here. The very earliest numbers on this one had it priced at a -155 and it has since dropped to as low as a -115. This is offering incredible line value considering the pitching match-up. Don't get me wrong, I know Luiz Gohara has good stuff. However, he is no Jake Arrieta. Yes Arrieta struggled in his most recent start but struggles for him have been rare this season and he pitched in wet conditions in his most recent start and his entire routine was thrown off by a long rain delay before the game could get underway. Arrieta is likely to be much stronger in this start. As for Gohara he has very little MLB experience. The Phillies also have an edge here in that they face him last season. The only other team he has started twice against was the Nationals. In the first start he was successful (just like he was against the Phillies) and in the 2nd start he got rocked (just like I expect him to tonight). This season Gohara has been great out of the bullpen but he has only logged a total of 7 innings. Last season as starter he went 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA. Arrieta is undefeated in his 4 home starts with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. In the month of May, when off of a loss where they scored 3 runs or less, Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4-0. The Phillies are 17-7 at home this season and 13-5 when off of a loss. The Braves are 1-4 in Gohara's starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-22-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:40 ET - This is a classic contrarian pick for me but of course my big play on this match-up certainly doesn't come without good reason. The fact is that the Diamondbacks have been struggling badly at the plate and the Brewers really haven't fared much better of late. That said, why did the odds makers hang a 9 on this O/U involving a pair of struggling lineups? Precisely! This is one of those situations where it is important to dig a little deeper and there are a number of key factors supporting the over in this one. Matt Koch gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he got absolutely crushed by the Brewers when he faced them Wednesday. Not only that, he has now struck out just 6 in his last 18 and 2/3 innings on the mound. Over this same amount of time he has allowed 7 homers. When a starter is striking out less hitters than home runs allowed over a 3-start period there is definitely cause for concern. As for Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin, he is off of a strong start at Arizona Wednesday but, previously, he allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Both of those were just last season so it is not as if this is "ancient history" either. The over is 9-3 this season in Arizona's road games when their money line range is between -125 and +125. The Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
|||||||
05-21-18 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - This total was as high as an 8.5 and it briefly dropped as low as a 7 in some spots this morning before settling in at a 7.5 across the board. Another contrarian play for me but, of course, it is certainly not without merit. Of course the Padres are known as a poor hitting team but they actually have a .412 slugging percentage which ranks them 6th in the National League this season. Also, San Diego has some extra confidence at the plate since they have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last 8. In fact, the Padres have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. Another edge is that they just saw the Nationals Gio Gonzalez less than two weeks ago. The Nats southpaw enjoyed success that day but he followed that up by struggling in his start last week. He allowed 6 hits and 4 walks for a 2.00 WHIP in his 5-inning stint in a game that got suspended. Look for the Padres to enjoy some success at the plate against Gonzalez plus they'll take advantage of a Nationals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 4.72 ERA. Of course San Diego is going to need all the runs they can get here because Washington is angry off of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and they are going to crush Robbie Erlin. The Padres southpaw is making a spot start here. His only other start this season saw him get crushed by the Dodgers. Also, in his only two starts at Washington in his career he has been absolutely hammered both times! Take advantage of the low total here. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Nationals are a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the Padres are 7-0 to the over in Monday games this season! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
05-20-18 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has some solid overall numbers on the season but note that the road has given him some trouble. Away from Oakland this season, he has compiled a 5.40 ERA with an ugly 1.65 WHIP. Speaking of ugly, the Blue Jays Joe Biagini is winless in his 3 starts this season and has compiled a 7.98 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. He's facing an A's team that has won 5 of their last 6 games plus has averaged 5.7 runs per game their last 9 games. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The over was 5-3 in Oakland's last 8 games and 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 games prior to yesterday's push. The A's are 13-6 to the over including 7-3 to the over in road games, when their game has a posted O/U of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The A's are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season and the Blue Jays are averaging 5.3 runs per game versus right-handed starters on the year. Add it all up and this one gets to double digits early Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |