Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys are expected to again be without QB Dak Prescott. Even though QB Cooper Rush has been a solid game manager for Dallas so far this season, the Cowboys still have an offense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. They are fortunate to be 4-1 this season. The Eagles are NOT fortunate to be 5-0 this season. They have dominated for long stretches in games and are fully deserving of their undefeated record. They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league and a solid defense that ranks well against both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are lacking a bit in terms of run defense and the Eagles had the #1 rushing attack last season and are again near the top of the league so far this season. Philly has hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this season but, until then, this is their Super Bowl. Indeed the Eagles, and the entire city of Philadelphia hates the Cowboys more than any other team in the NFL. They want revenge here for the fact they have lost 3 straight to Dallas by an average margin of 22 points per game. Keep in mind, last year's ugly loss to the Cowboys in Philly was after the Eagles clinched playoffs so they weren't playing for anything. This time they are playing for plenty and Philadelphia is 6-0 / 100% ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Dallas beat the Rams last week but were very fortunate as they were outgained by 100 yards. Now they go from the west coast to the east coast for this one and the Philly fans will be rabid for this one. What a time in Philly for the fans. Phillies going to NLCS, Flyers have started season 2-0 under new head coach, Sixers again considered an NBA title contender coming into season, and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. I only mention that because the passion and energy of the crowd tonight will perhaps be about the highest level you will have ever seen in a regular season NFL game in Philadelphia. I am 100% serious about that and you have the hated Cowboys in town and the Eagles currently firing on all cylinders and the likely QB match-up is early season MVP candidate Jalen Hurts over Cowboys QB Cooper Rush. I am not disrespecting Rush but just saying he was undrafted out of Central Michigan. The Eagles Hurts was a star at Alabama and Oklahoma - traditionally two of the best programs in College Football. Again, I respect what Rush has done with the Cowboys as a game manager but this will be his toughest test yet and if Prescott does play I would expect plenty of rust. Dak was very limited in practice and I really think they are going to wait on him and let the thumb heal more. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6 or -6.5 |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians Run Line +1.5 -115 vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - All the momentum and the home field edge with Guardians here. Each and every season it seems Yankees find a way to disappoint their huge fan base. They had a great regular season but they have now had B2B gut-wrenching losses! They lost 4-2 in Game 2 in New York in 10 innings. Then they took a 5-3 lead to bottom of 9th yesterday at Cleveland but still lost. I know Cole is a fantastic pitcher but Cleveland had a few chances in that Game One 4-1 loss and I feel they will be even better here against him. The Guardians confidence is sky high right now and of course now they get Cole at home. I also expect Quantrill to be even better here because he is at home for this one. He was 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA in the regular season in home starts! Cole had a solid, yet modest, 3.81 ERA in road outings this season. Also, he allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 7 homers over his last 4 road starts and those outings averaged only 5 and 2/3 per start. Anyway I am going with action on pitchers as the Guardians wrapped up the regular season on a 24-6 run and 2 of those 6 losses were by just 1 run so I like the very strong odds on at least a run line cover though I do feel Cleveland will win outright here to advance to ALCS. Guardians already 3-0 in home games in this post-season. 10* CLEVELAND run line +1.5 -115 |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins +3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am a contrarian and it is something that has served me well in the NFL through the years. In this case, the Vikings have been rolling and this line has flipped from Miami being a small favorite to Minnesota being now favored by a field goal on game day. Now of course part of the reason for the move is that Tagovailoa is still out for this game and Bridgewater is expected to only be the back-up for this game. That means Skylar Thompson gets the start. What everyone is looking at with him is that he struggled last week on the road but I want to mention a couple of key factors with him. This guy had a phenomenal preseason and, even though that is only preseason, it still shows he can move a team down the field. Now this week he got full reps with the first string all week long and will be fully prepared for this start here and this is a home start. Keep in mind, he played his college career at Kansas State which means he faced some tough teams during his college career. This is not some guy coming out of a small college where you have concerns about the level of competition. I really like Thompson to surprise in this game and feel we have phenomenal value here with the home dog. If this game was at Minnesota, no I would not play it. But this is an entirely different situation. On that note, Dolphins on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog. Overall, Miami on a 10-4 ATS run entering this one and Vikings on a 2-6 ATS run entering this one. Dolphins also have covered 8 of last 12 versus NFC foes. 8* MIAMI +3 |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +4 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on TCU in this revenge spot here. Revenge is over-played for sure in sports! It is a factor for sure but it is often over-valued. The result is you often can get value on the other side by playing against the revenging team. This is one of those cases. You don't think Oklahoma State is motivated too? Remember both these teams come in undefeated. The Cowboys want to stay that way just as bad as the Horned Frogs do. Also, the last 6 times that OSU has been in a game where both they and their opponent were ranked the Cowboys have won 5 of the 6 games and, keep in mind, we're getting 4 points to work with here too! I love the line value in this one because both defenses, deservedly, are much maligned BUT the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with 3.2 sacks per game. Also, Oklahoma State is leading the NATION (FBS) in tackles for a loss with 10.2 per game. So look for both teams to certainly enjoy some success on offense in this one but look for OSU to be the team making the key defensive plays that will be the difference in this game. Last, but certainly not least, note that Spencer Sanders rates the QB edge over Max Duggan in this game. I know both have strong career numbers and Duggan is also having a strong season again but how did he lose the starting job to Chandler Morris coming into this season. The coach saw something there, right? The only reason Duggan is back in there is Morris got hurt. Now I am most definitely NOT saying Duggan is not a good QB, I am just saying that there is a reason all that transpired and now, in the biggest of games, who would you rather be counting on? Sanders or Duggan? To me we have big edges in this game. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +4 |
|||||||
10-15-22 | NC State +3 v. Syracuse | 9-24 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* NC State Wolfpack +3 @ Syracuse Orange @ 3:30 ET - Like the fact that the Wolfpack already have a loss and that it came against a powerful Clemson team. I also like the fact they have a bye week on deck. Conversely, the Orange are undefeated but most of their schedule has been weak. I know Syracuse is off a bye week but they have a huge game at that same Clemson team on deck! The Orange two toughest games recently have been versus Purdue and Virginia. They hung on for the win in each but each were by 3 or less points. I like the fact we are getting the full field goal here and I love the scheduling situation. Yes the Orange will be focused her but they can't help but to be thinking "if we can just win this then we face Clemson as an undefeated team". I think Syracuse gets caught over-thinking it whereas this very strong NC State team already has that first blemish as noted above. So you have a situation where the Wolfpack are playing with less pressure and after their bye week they have a lousy Virginia Tech team on deck. So this means that NC State is fully focused here and I look for the Orange to finally get "peeled" for the first time this season! 8* NC State +3 |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Hamilton +7.5 v. Calgary | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Just too many points here. Yes, this game holds importance for the Stampeders too but the Tiger-Cats are fighting for their playoff lives. They are chasing Saskatchewan who is idle this week and Hamilton can tie them up in the standings with a win here. The Roughriders also have the tougher end to their season with their final 2 games in comparison with the Ti-Cats. Now, I am not saying that means Hamilton wins this game outright but I am saying they are going hard for it and they are healthier than they have been in quite some time. I look for them to give Calgary all they can handle here and this game will end up being decided by just a one-score margin in my opinion. Yes the Stamps are off a bye week that was preceded by a 29-2 win over Toronto but that final score in the victory over the Argonauts did not correlate to the boxscore so don't let the final score fool you. We are getting line value here because of that final score and this one will go down to the wire in my opinion so huge value with the points. QB Dane Evans off a bad game for the Tiger-Cats but yet they still got the comeback win over the Riders last week so that says a lot too. Evans had been playing better so I look for a big bounce back here. 10* HAMILTON +7.5 |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
CFB Thursday 8* Central Florida Knights -23 vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - This line was as high as 28 but is now down to 23 and I love fading line moves. The fact is the Owls just can not score points. They are 2-3 this season but the 2 wins were against a bad FCS team (Lafayette - PA) and an annually horrible FBS team (Massachusetts). You can practically throw the stats from those 2 games out the window. In their other 3 games, all losses, Temple has scored an average of just 6 points per game! I know it looks like they held Memphis in check in their 24-3 loss before a bye week last week. However, the Tigers had a big game on deck versus the Cougars and they were sleepwalking through the first half before they woke up and dominated the 2nd half. With UCF at home and off a big 2nd half versus SMU last week, I don't think we'll see sleepwalking here. Look for the Knights to be ready from the opening kick and they should win this one in a blowout. Of course Central Florida is going to win this game SU and that is worth noting as the Knights are scoring an average of 41 points per game in their 4 victories. So if Temple hits their average here of 6 points or even if fortunate enough to reach their highest point total (14) they have had in any loss this season, that still puts UCF with an ATS win even if the Knights just hit their scoring average. But truly this looks like a game that the Knights should even score closer to 50 than 40. Blowout time! 8* Central Florida -23 |
|||||||
10-12-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres +1.5 -130 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Of course the Dodgers are a great team and Kershaw is a fantastic pitcher. However, Darvish is a solid pitcher in his own right and he is off the great start versus the Mets which is part of the reason San Diego advanced to this NLDS. Darvish also had some solid outings versus the Dodgers this season and I expect another solid outing from him here. I like the Padres no matter the starting pitchers here as I am looking for a big bounce back here. In last night's loss San Diego did have more hits than Los Angeles but the difference in the 5-3 loss was LA went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position while San Diego went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Dodgers actually were on a 5-6 run last 11 home games prior to last night's win. In fact, in last dozen home games prior to last night's win only 5 of the 12 games were Dodgers wins by 2 or more runs. Like the value of the +1.5 with San Diego in this one. Prior to an ugly regular season loss in their season finale, the Padres were on an 11-6 run in which only 2 of the 6 losses were by more than a single run. That means that at +1.5 runs San Diego was 15-2 in those 17 games. This is going to be another tight game tonight and the +1.5 runs could prove invaluable in this one but an outright upset for the road team also would not surprise me in the least here. 10* SAN DIEGO +1.5 |
|||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
CFB Wednesday 8* Marshall Thundering Herd -10 vs UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams have been solid defensively but have struggled offensively. However, the more I dug into this match-up it is a game in which the home team has a much better shot at getting the offense going. The Thundering Herd are at home and have the better weapons on offense. I also like the revenge aspect here as Marshall lost to Louisiana in their bowl match-up last year in December. Both teams did not play on Saturday of course because of this being a Wednesday game. Look for the Thundering Herd to benefit more from the time off as they have the better coaching and will be very prepared for this home game after some recent disappointment. This is a Marshall team that was able to rise up and beat Notre Dame earlier this season. The Thundering Herd were a 3 TD underdog in that one so it shows what this team is capable of. The Ragin Cajuns were favored by double digits in each of their two road games this season and yet lost both outright against weaker competition. I think this is the right spot for the Thundering Herd to have one of their best games of the season and for the Louisiana road struggles to again be a major issue. 8* MARSHALL -10 |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -130 @ Atlanta Braves @ 1:07 ET - Phillies have a great shot at stealing Game 1 of this series but, even if they do not, a 1-run loss would be the most likely type of defeat they suffer. Suarez was great against the Braves late in the season. In his last 3 starts against them he allowed a total of only 1 earned run. As for Fried, in his last 3 starts against the Phillies this season he allowed a total of 6 earned runs. The Atlanta lefty allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in one of those starts and allowed 2 homers in another one of the starts versus Philadelphia. Regardless of the starting pitching match-up here, I like the fact the Phillies are rolling with confidence right now after their big comeback win in Game 1 of the Cardinals series and then getting a shutout win in Game 2 at St Louis. Could the time off for Braves hurt them here? They have, of course, not played a game in nearly a week. Of Atlanta's last 15 games of the regular season only 6 (40%) were wins by 2 or more runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -130 |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This is a contrarian play so this write-up will be rather short. Everyone will want the Cowboys here as they have 3 straight and plus they catch the Rams on a short week off Monday Night Football at San Francisco. Also, everyone has watched LA struggle versus Buffalo and the 49ers in primetime games. So again, the favoritism has been toward Dallas here which is why the line has moved their way. Let us not forget however, the Rams did not even leave the state of California for the Monday Night Game. They also are angry off that loss. Dallas is off B2B divisional wins and has huge divisional game against currently undefeated Eagles in Philly on deck. The Cowboys also traveling west for this one which often does not go well for them. I know Stafford is having a rough start to the season and the offensive line struggled badly against the Niners last week. But I am here to tell you that Los Angeles is going to dig deep for this game and Prescott is still not coming back for this game. It is still Cooper Rush at QB. No offense to Rush but I don't think the Bengals are very good this season and the Commanders certainly are not and the Giants are a team that has not won more than 6 games in about 6 years. So he is going to get tested by an angry Rams defense in this one. I look for LA to really come together strong for this one and get a convincing win. The numbers and trends and stats will not support that. But the NFL is about much more than what people perceive from those things. Rams step up big here and still are well-coached and they do not want to drop below .500 on the season. Look for them to pull away as this game goes on. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -5 |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -4.5 | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - This Seahawks is one of the worst teams in the league. They have a horrid defense. I know this team is 2-2 this season but they never should have beaten the Broncos in week 1 as anyone who watched the game knows. It was a fluke win. Then they lost their next two games by a combined score 54 to 30. Then last week they did get the win but allowed 45 points. This Saints team can play defense. Also, Dalton looked solid at QB last week in the loss at London versus Vikings. Dalton played just fine and now New Orleans gets RB Kamara back this week. Also they have a rookie WR who has been excelling and showed good chemistry with Dalton last week and that helps alleviate the concern of WR Michael Thomas again being out this week. Better defense, at home and off a loss and note Seahawks allowing an average of 36 points per game in road games this season and playing the 2nd game of a B2B away from Seattle. Saints have had only one home game and it was against a tough Bucs team. They are going to take advantage of their first home game against a weak foe and then they win this convincingly. 8* NEW ORLEANS -4.5 |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Giants v. Packers -8 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants @ 9:30 AM ET (London) - The Packers outgained the Patriots by 162 yards last week. Yes was OT win but Green Bay was better than final score indicated. The Pack, based on yardage stats, the better team on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Giants. I know New York has a good record so far this season but I feel a regression is coming. Lets not forget the Giants have not won more than 6 games in a season in many years. New York has been fortunate to win some tight games this season but this one unlikely to be tight. Green Bay just too much for New York. The Giants toughest match-up this season, based on current records, was Dallas and they lost to Cowboys despite being at home and despite the Boys being without Prescott at QB. The Packers, in my opinion, have faced the tougher schedule including Vikings and Buccaneers. Green Bay is a team many consider to be a threat for the Super Bowl this season. The Giants are not expected to be a playoff team and the Packers also have the edge in pass protection here. Look for the favorite to pull away as this game goes on and win this by double digits. 8* GREEN BAY -8 |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +4 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET - Love this spot for an underdog upset but happy to grab the points here too. Illinois just won their Game of the Year. The reason I say that is their head coach, Brett Bielema used to coach the Badgers. The Illini just went to Madison last week and beat Wisconsin convincingly on their home turf. Now watch this over-rated Illini bunch come out flat as a pancake for this game. First off, give credit for the win over Wiscy but Badgers nowhere near the team they use to be. Then look at who else this Illinois team has played this season. Wyoming is bad this season, Virginia is bad this season, the Indiana team that the Illini lost to just lost B2B games to Cincy and Nebraska by a combined score of 80 to 45. The other win Illinois has was over an FCS school. Now, I do know that Iowa is off a tough physical battle with Michigan last week. But I also know the Hawkeyes have a bye week on deck and they will go all out here coming off a loss. There is no quit in this physical Iowa team and they will be inspired to go hard for the win in conference action. They did throw for over 200 yards against the Wolverines in a game in which the stats were nearly equal. That is impressive as Michigan is one of the top teams in the country. Look for the Hawkeyes to be able to run and pass better than you would expect against this over-rated Illini defense that could come out flat here too. Iowa hungry off a loss and lets not forget the allowed an average of only 6 points per game first 4 games! That did include a 3 point loss to a solid Iowa State team. The Hawkeyes have only lost once in last 14 meetings with Illini and that includes 8-0 SU last 8. I fully expect that streak to reach 9 here but am happy to take the 4 points as added insurance too. 10* IOWA +4 |
|||||||
10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -3.5 vs North Carolina @ 4 ET - Remember when everyone was so down on Notre Dame earlier this season? You might be asking what that has to do with this play but, quite a lot actually, and I will explain. The Fighting Irish were on an 0-2 ATS run and 1-2 SU run and off a non-covering win versus Cal after an embarrassing loss to Marshall. Their next game was AT this North Carolina team. Even at Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels got embarrassed. The game was 38-20 entering the 4th quarter and, for the game the Irish outgained UNC 576 to 367. Keep in mind the game was 38-14 before UNC gained 230 yards and scored 18 points over the final 20 minutes of the game after it was already out of hand. The point is that the Tar Heels had one test this season and they failed miserably. Now they are on the road and facing a similar foe. This Hurricanes team is angry and off a bye week. Miami should have beat Texas A & M a few weeks ago - we had the Canes there and they dominated everything but the scoreboard. Then, after that demoralizing loss, Miami came out flat and lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a big favorite. Then the bye week last week and now you have an angry Hurricanes team that, by the way, is playing their first ACC game of the season. They are the only team in ACC without a conference game yet. They can still, in theory, go undefeated in ACC. Of course I am not saying they will but the point is that this is the ideal perfect fresh start situation for Miami. Similar to Notre Dame, this Hurricanes defense will give the Tar Heels offense some trouble. As for the UNC defense, it is atrocious and will not be able to stop Miami. The Heels just dominated Virginia Tech but the Hokies are a very bad football team this season. Prior to that, UNC had allowed 40 points per game this season! The Hurricanes open up their ACC season with a big win here as the situation, the home field, and the much better defense all add up to a huge win. 10* MIAMI -3.5 |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -2 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats are off a bye week. That was preceded by a loss at Montreal but they outgained the Alouettes in that game but turned the ball over twice - once on downs and once on a fumble. Prior to that loss they had a big home win over a strong Winnipeg team. That victory brought Hamilton to 4-1 last 5 home games. Conversely, this Roughriders team is on a 4-game losing streak. I know Saskatchewan is trying to make the playoffs but the Ti-Cats still have hope too and the Riders are known for being a bad road team. We have solid line value here with the home team at a short number and I am looking for another strong game from Tiger-Cats QB Dane Evans as he has been in fine form recently. 10* HAMILTON -2 |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Nebraska -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - Rutgers has lost 20 straight Big Ten home games and Nebraska is favored by only 3 points. There is your write-up. All kidding aside the fact is we certainly have history on our side here and I also like the fact that the Scarlet Knights have a big mess at the QB spot. I know they had some good defensive numbers before facing Ohio State last week and most certainly the Cornhuskers are nowhere close to the level of the Buckeyes. However, Rutgers played bad teams in the form of Boston College, Wagner, Temple and also an Iowa team known for its defense not its offense. The point is that the Scarlet Knights defense will be challenged a bit by a pretty solid Nebraska offense here. The other key is that the Huskers defense woke up after the firing of their defensive coordinator and they played very strong against Indiana last week. I know this is a road game on the east coast and it is hard to trust the Cornhuskers on the road but I feel strongly that last week's game against the Hoosiers is a sign of things to come. Also, how can anyone trust a Rutgers team that has lost 20 straight home games in conference action and that has a messed up quarterback situation with injuries, etc? I sure can not! Go Big Red! 10* NEBRASKA -3 |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Rams +2 v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +1.5 or +2 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Motivation is so important when professional players are paid many millions to play the sport they love. Guys still sometimes don't have it. They come to the game not fully prepared mentally and they pay for it. That is what happened when the defending Super Bowl Champs opened the season against the Bills and got thoroughly embarrassed on national TV with the whole world watching. Los Angeles got caught still celebrating the Super Bowl victory and thinking a little too much of themselves entering the new season. What does that have to do with this game you might ask? A helluva lot! This is the Rams first chance since then to redeem themselves on the big stage. No one likes to be embarrassed. This is Monday Night Football. It is a division rival. The defending champs will bring their "A game". Now I am not here to tell you this Rams team is as good as last year because they are not. However, they are still better than the 49ers. Yes San Francisco has a great defense but the Rams have a solid defense too, to say the least. Also, LA is particularly strong against the run and the Niners are not a good passing attack (as per usual). So this is where the final key comes in. Rams QB Stafford and the overall LA passing attack ranks the edge over the Niners in that department for sure AND it was Stafford that got embarrassed too with a rough game against Buffalo on opening night. Redemption time here and I know some will point to the revenge angle here for Niners from last year's playoff loss. But these teams just plain don't like each other AND the Rams had actually lost 6 IN A ROW to the Niners before that playoff win. So there is still some payback to be served here and SF has scored less points this season than LA has the past two weeks. Stafford stats the past two weeks are 45 of 61 for 521 yards and 3 td vs 2 int. Garoppolo only 31 of 50 for just 365 yards with 2 td vs 1 int. Also Jimmy G got sacked 4 times last week. Stafford just once each of past two weeks. The Rams ability to move the ball better through the air is the difference in this game. The motivation because of getting drilled on opening night of season on national TV is the other as they show the world the Rams are still a force to be reckoned with by delivering a Monday night bounce back and improve to 3-1 while trying to bury the rival Niners and knock them down to 1-3 on the young season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +1.5 or +2 |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Universitatea Cluj v. Botosani | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 8* FC Botosani Goal Line PK +100 vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11 AM ET - FC Botosani will respond here on their home pitch after getting drilled 7-0 on the road in their most recent match. To put that in proper perspective as to how bad that loss was, their opponent today has scored only 7 goals this entire season in 11 matches! Indeed, Universitatea Cluj is the lowest-scoring team in the league this season and I am very comfortable with the goal line in this one. It means Universitatea Cluj has to win the match for us to lose our bet. A draw here and we get our money back. Note that Universitatea Cluj has only won 2 matches in their 11 so far this season. As for FC Botosani, prior to last week's ugly loss their goal differential was 0 as they had 9 for and 9 against and they had only 3 losses in 9 matches at that time on the season. The hosts are sure to respond this week! 8* FC Botosani |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Broncos +3 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3 |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected pitching match-up certainly favors the Phillies in a big way but there is also no getting around the fact that Philly has huge overall team edges in this match-up with Washington. They did drop Game 1 of yesterday's double-header but bounced back with a big win in Game 2. The Nationals are a horrible 17-55 in divisional games this season. The Phillies are 52-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Also, they are 27-17 against left-handed starters and the expected starter here is Corbin for the Nationals. He has had absolutely no success this season against the Phillies and been hit very hard in all 3 outings against them. The Nationals are going to struggle against Phillies expected starter Wheeler. He looks great since returning to the rotation and when he is on like this he is tough to beat. Also he dominated Washington in his only start against them this season. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Coming into this season the Jaguars were expected to notch about 6 wins and the Eagles about 10 wins. Now with the Jags off to a surprising start the betting markets have over-reacted and you have this game priced in a way that indicates Eagles would only be favored by a FG over Jacksonville on a neutral field. I am not buying it! This Eagles team is for real and was forecast to reach double digits in wins for a reason. Jalen Hurts put in a lot of off-season work and it has paid major dividends for him and for these Eagles. Now they are at home and laying less than 7 against a Jags team that is a perennial loser. I am not saying the Jaguars with Lawrence at QB and Pederson at head coach deserve respect. They absolutely do merit respect. But they are still not the same talent level right now as this Eagles team. Philly has a game out West at Arizona after this. They know they must make the most of this home game. They got 9 QB sacks last week. The Jags have been great in pass protection so far but this is a different animal they are facing this week! Also, remember all the turnovers the Eagles generated in their only other home game this season versus the Vikings! Jacksonville has covered just 3 of last 11 overall and 3 of last 11 when in road dog role too. Also, Jaguars incredible 4-30 ATS against NFC teams long-term. The Eagles have covered 5 in a row as a home favorite and I love the line value here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -6.5 |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Vikings v. Saints +3.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9:30 AM ET in London - I am well aware of the QB situation for the Saints but with Winston having some turnover issues the fact that Dalton and Hill will be the QB options for New Orleans here may not be such a bad thing. Also, the Saints outgained the Panthers substantially last week at Carolina including by nearly 200 yards through the air but they were done in by turnovers. The Vikings hung on to beat Detroit last week but they did lose the stats battle there. Remember their last road game was at Philly and they got destroyed by the Eagles. I have a strong feeling the Saints win this one outright given all of the above. Statistically, they are the better team on both offense and defense so far this season but have been done in by turnovers. Watch Dalton and Hill both produce well for the Saints offense in this one. Grabbing the generous points here. 8* NEW ORLEANS +3.5 |
|||||||
10-01-22 | LSU -8 v. Auburn | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8 |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 | Top | 25-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +3.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Elks should win this outright but I am grabbing the value of the 3.5 points here. However, the fact is that Edmonton is hungry for their first home win of the season and this is the perfect spot to get it. The Elks catch Montreal off a big home win over Hamilton. That divisional win could leave them a little flat here plus Edmonton has the rest edge since they are off a bye week. Additionally, Edmonton has been playing better of late. Getting solid QB play from Cornelius and now they get a top WR back from injury this week too. Montreal, on the other hand, will still be without their star RB Stanback here. On defense the Elks also are fired up off a huge performance piling up sacks versus Saskatchewan two weeks ago. Now fresher legs off the bye and note the Als are 2-4 on the road this season while the hosts here have a sweet 3-1 record versus East Division teams this season. Lot to like with the home team in a great spot here. 10* EDMONTON +3.5 |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - This is a tough spot for Baylor in my opinion. They started the season at home, then went all the way to Utah to face BYU, then home again, then north Iowa to face Iowa State, and now back home again. They face a talented Oklahoma State team that is coming off a bye week. Not only that, they have revenge on their minds from last year's Big 12 Championship Game loss to Baylor. They actually won the yardage battle by about 100 yards in that one but were done in by turnovers and they failed to win despite being favored by nearly a TD. That said, how do they do as a road dog? The last 7 times they have not lost the money a single time! One push and 6 covers as an away puppy and given they have the scheduling edge and the revenge, love the Cowboys in this spot. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +2.5 |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Ottawa +7 v. BC | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7 @ BC Lions @ 10:30 ET - Surprisingly, the Redblacks are 3-3 SU on the road this season which is nearly as good as the 4-3 home record that BC has. Both teams off bad losses last week but I think we have excellent value here with the big points with Ottawa. The Redblacks had 5 interceptions in last week's ugly home loss to Toronto so they managed to lose by 30 points despite having a yardage edge of 80 in the game! Unheard of variance between the scoreboard and the statsheet. That said, another key is that of course BC has been a different team since their star QB Nathan Rourke got hurt. This week they will be without one of their best wide receivers too as Bryan Burnham is out. He had been strong for the Lions in recent weeks so this certainly will further hurt a passing game that is not the same without Rourke at the controls. BC barely snuck by the Redblacks when these teams met in Ottawa and I am forecasting another tight game here which means the points are ultra-valuable in this one! 10* OTTAWA +7 |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5 |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 ET - The Phillies off a tight 2-1 loss but should bounce back here. I am going with action on pitchers as I look for a Philadelphia bounce back either way but I will mention that the expected starters are Aaron Nola and Hayden Wesneski. Note that Nola has been dominant for much of this season and has a 2.08 ERA this month plus his road ERA is lower than his home ERA this year. As for Wesneski, I know he has impressive numbers for far but he struggled in his lone start against a better team, the Giants, while feasting on bad teams like the Reds and Pirates and a Rockies team that can not hit on the road. So the point is that he is due for a reality check here. His stuff is not overpowering and he had a rather high ERA in the minors this season. In other words, he is a little over-rated right now and the struggles will come in this game against a tough Phillies lineup. Philadelphia has had only one losing streak last longer than 3 games since the All Star Break. The Phillies have gone 4-1 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. The visitors respond big here and win this by a multi-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1 |
|||||||
09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5 |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Calgary +1 v. BC | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1 @ BC Lions @ 10 PM ET - Yes the Lions managed to sneak past the Stampeders last week but it was in OT and BC still has not won a game in regulation time since week 11 and we are now in week 15. Calgary is 5-2 on the road this season and the only two losses away from home were at Winnipeg. Of course the Blue Bombers have been the best team in the league this season so no shame in those two defeats and one of the losses was by just a 2-point margin. The Stamps QB Maier had 3 touchdown passes last week while the Lions Adams did not have a single one. Yes, BC is a quality football team but they are not the same team without Rourke at QB. He was lost to a season-ending injury about a month ago and the Lions have struggled since then. After the Lions clawed their way to a tight OT victory last week at Calgary, look for the Stampeders to return the favor at BC! Note that the Stamps are 8-0 this season against teams not named Winnipeg or BC. The Lions have beaten them twice but by a total of just 3 points. There is a reason this game is priced at nearly a pick'em even though the Stampeders are on the road. This time the Stamps get over the hump and beat BC as I liked what I saw last week despite them falling just short on the scoreboard. Payback time in a key game for the visitors here. 10* CALGARY +1 |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Purdue -16 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers -16 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - Rarely ever do I lay big points but this is one I will make a rare exception on. Even if Purdue lets up late in this game I still have them winning this game by at least 3 touchdowns. The Boilersmakers do have a pair of Big Ten road games on deck but they are off a road loss at Syracuse and are angry after letting that game slip away. Purdue, after today, has only one home game between now and November. I don't see them holding back here. They will run up the score in this one. This team throws the ball a lot and they are in need of a big win. Remember they lost a tough tight one at home to Penn State in the waning minutes earlier this season. In between the tough tight late-game losses to the Nittany Lions and the Orange, the Boilermakers crushed Indiana State 56-0. Of course Florida Atlantic is not an FCS program like the Sycamores are BUT that still does not change the fact that the Owls are not a great football team and they play in the weak SunBelt conference. This line is saying that Purdue would only be favored by 13 on a neutral field but I don't buy that given the situation. The Boilers have put up some big numbers on offense this season and FAU just does not have the firepower to keep up. Yes the Owls put up some big numbers against lesser competition but they were finally a dog last week and scored just 14 points against UCF. The other teams FAU has faced are a combined 3-7 and included an FCS school also. The Boilers, a Big Ten off a loss and having played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, absolutely pour it on in this one! 8* PURDUE -16 |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Texas v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7 |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Look for Hamilton to build off their big upset win last week at home versus the Blue Bombers. Of course Winnipeg the best team in the CFL this season so the Tiger-Cats upsetting them is nothing to sneeze at. The fact is this Ti-Cats team is much better than their record shows. Lets not forget they have been a threat for the Grey Cup title each of the past two seasons. Now Hamilton is still looking up in the standings at Montreal but can equal them with a win here and improve their playoff chances. Look for the Ti-Cats to do just that as they also have a revenge from a tight 1-point loss in the last meeting between these teams and they want payback against the Als. I know Montreal is off a bye week but the Alouettes had allowed 31 points per game in 8 games before a 31-10 win over a badly wounded BC team before their bye week last week. I just do not trust the Als defense and feel the Ti-Cats unit is the better unit even though some of their recent points allowed totals would not lead you to believe that. There is a reason that a Tiger-Cats team that is 0-6 SU on the road this season is catching such a small number here. Don't let the line fool you. The road team is the play here and I look for them to get revenge and finally get a road win! Grab the points just in case. 10* HAMILTON +2.5 |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - If you just look at points scored versus points allowed you don't get an accurate picture of where these two 1-1 AFC North rival teams are really at right now. The fact is that Cleveland has been the much better team statistically in comparison with Pittsburgh. Adding to the value with the Browns here is they have more than just the home field edge here. It is expected to be very windy in Cleveland for this one and that makes the ground game all the more important. The Steelers are not a good a ground team and also don't defend the run well. Conversely, the Browns are strong in both those areas. They can pound it on the ground and they do a good job of stuffing the run on the other side of the ball. That said, we have excellent line value here with Cleveland laying a rather short number in this one. I like to look for dogs in the NFL generally speaking but the Steelers are a really bad football team right now on both sides of the ball. The Browns will take advantage as they are angry off the late-game home loss to the Jets last week. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh was outgained 432 to 267 in week 1 but had a 5-0 turnover edge and yet still need OT to get the win at Cincinnati. The Browns have only 1 turnover in two games and the Steelers will not be so fortunate here receiving gifts like they did in the win over Bengals. Also, Pittsburgh was again outgained big, 376 to 243, by the Patriots last week and that game was at Heinz Field! This is a tough road spot for the Steelers plus the Browns have double revenge from last season in addition to being angry about last week's loss to the Jets! 10* CLEVELAND -4 |
|||||||
09-21-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Dodgers entered yesterday with 89 wins by 2 or more runs this season. That was out of 146 games on the season. Many teams will not even win 89 games out of 162 this season and we are talking about 89 wins by a multiple run margin! Simply put, LA has been absolutely dominant this season yet yesterday they played a double header and did not win either game by a multi-run margin. After winning game one by a single run, Los Angeles lost game two outright. That said, regardless of pitchers here, the odds favor a big Dodgers bounce back here and I like this run line play as a great bounce back spot for LA. But now I will touch on the pitchers and will mention that Bumgarner has struggled badly for many weeks now and almost always allows 4 or more earned runs in recent starts. That spells trouble against May and the Dodgers. May has been mostly solid in his outings since coming back from injury and the Dbacks hitters have very little familiarity with him so that is another edge for him here. Look for the home team to roll big in this one! 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -140 |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
NFL Monday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - Long-term NFL betting has as much to do with line value as anything else and getting Philly at less than a field goal at home here is a good value. Some of this value was created by the Vikings looking strong to the betting public because of a 23-7 win over Green Bay last week but their yardage edge was slim in that game plus it was in Minnesota. Another key the value here is the Eagles had a big lead at Detroit last week but then gave up some late scoring to the Lions. That put a bit of anti-Philly buzz on this game. So with a line less than the key number of 3, why am I comfortable taking Philadelphia here besides just the value? Well, the Vikings are now on the road where last season they went just 3-6 SU. Also, one of those wins came against a Bears team that was so bad last season that they had a 5-game HOME losing streak going until they beat the Giants in their home finale. Another Vikes road win came in OT. So, the point is that the Vikings have certainly not been "road warriors" of late. As for the Eagles, they enter this game having won 3 of last 4 at home but note the only loss was that meaningless regular season finale versus Dallas last year. Eagles already knew they were going to playoffs already. The point is that in meaningful games, and after last week's road win at Detroit, Philly has won 7 of 8 in regular season action including 3 straight at home. I am grabbing the value with the home team here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -2.5 |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Steaua Bucharesti +0.25 v. CS U Craiova | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 @ Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Utilizing the goal line here means that even if this match ends in a draw we still do not lose the pick. That is a nice added value to have here because FCSB is much better than people realize even this season. The problem is they continue to be "kings of the draw" as they have finished equal with their opponent in 5 matches already this season. Even though FCSB is down low in the standings, this is a club that has only 2 losses so far on the campaign. Out of the 16-club league, FCSB is one of only 3 clubs with 2 or less losses on the season. That said, a lot of value here in grabbing the goal line and fading a Universitatea Craiova that has won just 4 of 9 matches. That is a respectable win rate for sure but still the odds, as you can see, still slightly favor the hosts not winning this match. Tipping the odds even more in a our favor though is the fact that FCSB got ripped off last week and gave up a late tying goal on a penalty shot in the waning minutes of extra time. It was a sickening draw for FCSB against Voluntari and I feel they will be relentless on the road in this match as a result. I do expect a win here but hard to trust FCSB to claim victory considering how many draws they have had this season. That said, the value is there with the goal line giving us some extra insurance in the event of a draw. Great spot for the visitors though. No doubt about that and they catch Universitatea Craiova off 2 shutout losses in last 3 matches! 10* FCSB Goal Line Pick +130 |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Colts -2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3 |
|||||||
09-17-22 | Miami-FL +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6 |
|||||||
09-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 31-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers have the best record in the CFL but the Tiger-Cats are getting healthier and coming off a bye week. This sets up well for home underdog to give the highly touted visitor all they can handle in this one. Perhaps Winnipeg gets caught looking ahead to their upcoming bye week or still relishing their home blowout win over Saskatchewan last week. Either way, these Ti-Cats are much better than their record shows. I know they have a bad record but they entered this season 23-9 the past two seasons and they are not that bad of a football team. They will be excited here about exacting revenge too as Winnipeg has won each of the last two Grey Cup titles at the expense of Hamilton. When these teams met earlier this season, the Tiger-Cats lost by a two TD margin and they want payback here at home. They may not get that full revenge, though it would not surprise me, but they should at least get the ATS cover here which, of course, is our concern! 10* HAMILTON +7.5 |
|||||||
09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | 29-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Saturday CFB 8* Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 @ Syracuse Orange @ Noon ET - I was very impressed with the Boilermakers performance against Penn State in their season opener. Then they throttled an FCS school last week. Syracuse is getting a lot of love here because they beat Louisville by a big margin in week 1. However, the starts in that game show the final score was a bit of a phony final. Cardinals had a couple of a missed scoring opportunities. Also, the Orange then played a bad UConn team last week. Syracuse has beaten a Cardinals team that is now 11-16 since start of 2020 season and the Orange also beat a Connecticut team that is on an 11-54 run last 65 games. I am not sold on this Syracuse team just yet and the Orange are getting a little too much respect from the markets here. Yes, the dome in Syracuse is not an easy place for visiting teams to play but the Boilermakers play in the Big Ten. The Boilers are used to having to play in tough places and also against much tougher teams than this Orange team. O'Connell putting up big numbers so far for Boilermakers and has 6 TDs and 0 INTs too! Road team gets the win here! 8* PURDUE +1.5 |
|||||||
09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5 |
|||||||
09-13-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
MLB Tuesday 8* New York Mets -1.5 -160 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. This line really took off on us as I have been looking at this game since last night but know that even the run line is a bit pricey here. That is why I am reducing my rating to an 8* which is the equivalent of laying 10* on a -130 so is certainly not a bad value here with the Mets in a bounce back spot here. I like New York no matter who ends up being the starting pitchers but will mention it is expected to be Sampson versus deGrom and this is a complete mismatch in favor of New York. In terms of the situation, Chicago just blasted the Mets 5-2 yesterday but this has been the exception rather than the norm in terms of yesterday's results. Cubs had lost 15 of 21 games heading into this series. They only scored well in one of those 15 losses and in the other 14 they averaged just 1.9 runs scored! As for the Mets, they had won 31 of 46 prior to that loss. They had scored an average of 8.4 runs in last 5 victories. This one has the makings of a home blowout. 8* NEW YORK METS -1.5 -160 |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Broncos -6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5 |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5 |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This game might start later than expected due to rain in Philly early in the day today but I do expect them to get this one in. Nationals lost again to Phillies yesterday and are now 11-45 in divisional games this season! Also, 71 of Washington's 91 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Sanchez is 2-5 this season plus he has a combined 5.61 ERA his past two seasons. Also, Nola has absolutely been dominant in 3 of his last 4 home starts and that includes one against the Nationals. Long-term he has a phenomenal W-L record in his home starts. The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Another home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -140 |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Saints -5 v. Falcons | 27-26 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -5 or -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - Coming into this season I really liked the Bills and Saints. I feel if Jameis Winston can stay healthy for New Orleans that the Saints are capable of making noise in the NFC. As for the AFC, we all saw what Buffalo is capable of in their Thursday night domination of the Rams. The point is that even though I am not a big fan of laying points on the road in a divisional match-up in the NFL, I am not going to waver from my strong thoughts about Buffalo and New Orleans entering this season. The Falcons are a really bad team and could end up being the worst team in the league this season. The Saints might contend for the Super Bowl. They have a solid defense and the Falcons defense was horrid last season. Also, now Atlanta has Mariota at QB instead of Ryan. There are going to be some growing pains for this Falcons offense early this season while I expect Winston and the Saints to hit the ground running! 8* NEW ORLEANS -5 or -5.5 |
|||||||
09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5 |
|||||||
09-10-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals lost 5 to 3 to Phillies yesterday are now 11-44 in divisional games this season! Also, against lefties, the Nats are 14-36 this season! 70 of Washington's 90 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Fedde is 4-9 with a 6.26 ERA in night games this season. Also, Suarez has an ERA below 2.50 since early July! The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
|||||||
09-10-22 | Saskatchewan +7.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 5 ET - The Riders actually outgained the Bombers by about 100 yards last week! Saskatchewan lost the game by only 2 points and got the cover but one could argue, and correctly by the way, that the Rough Riders should have won the game outright! Not saying they will this week as it will be tougher with this one being at Winnipeg but still do think it is going to be again be tough for the Blue Bombers to cover. This one now is at 7.5 points and it offers huge value to the hungry underdog as Winnipeg continues to have a target on their backs courtesy of their torrid start this season. This is also a rivalry game and just too much value with the points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
|||||||
09-10-22 | North Carolina -7 v. Georgia State | 35-28 | Push | 0 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels -7 @ Georgia State Panthers @ Noon ET - The Tar Heels are not getting much respect from the odds makers here because they gave up a bunch of late points at Appalachian State last week. Two comments to that. First off, lesson learned as UNC paid for getting too comfy with a huge lead and almost blew the game. Secondly, the Mountaineers have a very balanced attack as they can both run and throw very well. As for this Georgia State team that UNC will be facing this week, that is most certainly not the case. The Panthers were 7 for 29 throwing the ball against South Carolina last week. Yes Georgia State has a dangerous ground game but North Carolina can stack the box against the run and dare the Panthers to throw the ball. That being said, just can not see Georgia State being able to keep up here! The Tar Heels were already known last season for a dynamic offense and they certainly have not disappointed in that regard this season either. UNC is averaging 59.5 points per game this season and the Panthers will hang around for awhile in this one and are exciting to be hosting an ACC team. But the fact remains the Tar Heels offense is too much and they eventually pull away for the victory by much more than a TD in my opinion. 8* NORTH CAROLINA -7 |
|||||||
09-09-22 | BC v. Montreal +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +3.5 vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Love the angles here. BC is just not the same team now without Rourke at QB. He will be out for a bit after surgery on his foot. As for QB O'Connor, he is just not at the same level. So BC went out and got Adams from Montreal and he might play some here immediately against his former team. Guess who knows QB Adams and his tendencies very, very well? The Alouettes of course. That said, this is a tough match-up for the Lions even though they are off a bye week. The QB position is a major question mark for BC while Montreal is very much settled on Harris at QB and he beat out Adams for the top spot with the Als for a reason. The Alouettes had recent key wins over Hamilton and also handed Winnipeg their only loss of the season but then lost last week at home so you know Montreal is going to be ready to roll here. This is a great situational spot for them as Lions make their longest road trip of the season across the country too. Again, I know that BC is off a bye week but this is still not a great spot for them. Also, note that Lions have played only 4 road games so far this season while others have played as many as 7 games. The home dog plus the points gets it done here. 10* MONTREAL +3.5 |
|||||||
09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Friday CFB 8* Louisville Cardinals +5.5 / 6 / 6.5 @ Central Florida Knights @ 7:30 ET - We are getting extra line value because Cards were bad at Syracuse last week. The Cardinals indeed did not fare well against the Orange at the Carrier Dome but this team will be better this season and I have a feeling they will surprise the Knights here. I am not saying they win outright (though that would not shock me) rather I am just saying this has high probability to be a highly competitive game so I love having the points here. UCF played an FCS school last week so let's not over-react to their big win last week. Also, Central Florida lost to Louisville last season and had trouble slowing them down in the eventual 42-35 loss. Just like the value here in fading a team that last season, based on yardage offensively, ranked in the middle of the pack and they are facing a Cards team that ranked in the top 25 last season on offense based on yardage production. Yes, last week the Cardinals were stopped on downs at the 2 yard line and threw an INT in the end zone and that had a lot to do with them finishing with just 7 points in a game in which they did total 334 yards. They will be better this week and they will score plenty against this UCF defense. 8* LOUISVILLE |
|||||||
09-08-22 | Bills -2 v. Rams | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2 |
|||||||
09-07-22 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves -1.5 -145 @ Oakland A's @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday the A's scored 9 runs and lost 10-9 to spoil all Braves run line plays. Very rare for Oakland to score so many runs. Don't see that happening again today. Overall, Atlanta just such a much stronger lineup than the Athletics. So no matter who pitches here, the Braves should win big and you consider yesterday an aberration. Will still touch on the expected starters now. Ken Waldichuk struck out 6 in his MLB debut but could not make it out of the 5th inning and was fortunate more damage was not inflicted as he allowed 5 hits and walked 4. That was against the Nationals too! Now he goes from facing one of the league's worst to facing one of the league's best and is just his 2nds MLB appearance! As for Spencer Strider, his stuff has been "off the charts" good! He dominates and piles up the strikeouts and he is now 9-4 this season with opponents hitting just .179 against him. Look for his nasty stuff to handcuff the Athletics in this one. The Braves have won 6 straight and are 34 games over .500 while Oakland has won just 33% of their home games this season! Road team rolls to a rout, regardless of starting pitchers! Braves have scored an average of 6.2 runs last dozen games. A's, prior to yesterday, had averaged scored 2 runs per game in last 13 losses! 10* ATLANTA -1.5 -145 |
|||||||
09-06-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:45 ET - Action on pitchers. It is raining in Philly Tuesday but the rain during day that is expected is also to subside and become light showers by late afternoon. So the hope is we get baseball on Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Nola is off a rare bad start at Arizona where he got rocked. This followed him allowing 1 earned run or less in 4 of last 5 starts. Nola also has dominated the Marlins this season in a pair of starts against them. Miami starter Jesus Luzardo can be strong at times but this is still a guy who is 9-15 with a 5.32 ERA last two seasons combined. The big key here is Marlins do not hit well and Phillies ready to bounce back big at home after a tough series at San Francisco over the weekend. Philadelphia is 15-6 last 21 home games and 8 of last 9 victories overall by 2 or more runs. The Marlins are mired in an 8-26 slump and 11 of last 16 losses by at least a 2-run margin. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 +100 |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +102 vs San Francisco Giants @ 10:10 ET - Giants off a dramatic walk-off win over the Phillies last night and had surprising success in that series after entering it on a rough run of mostly losing for two weeks. The Dodgers won big again yesterday and are simply an incredible machine. Los Angeles has not only won 70% of their games this season but, when they win, it is almost always by a multiple-run margin! 80 of their 92 wins this season by 2 or more runs. Regardless of pitchers here I like the Dodgers at home but I will mention them here. Webb got hammered by the Dodgers last time he faced them and he also has been shaky in 2 of his last 3 starts. Heaney has great numbers for the Dodgers and has been piling up strikeouts including when he faced SF with Webb on the hill 5 weeks ago. Webb allowed 6 earned runs in that one and Heaney allowed just 1 earned run in that one. More of the same here and again I like the Dodgers though regardless of pitchers. Play this one with ACTION. Los Angeles has won 47 of 64 home games this season! San Francisco is 9 games UNDER .500 in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 +102 |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton | Top | 28-8 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats Pick -110 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 1 ET - The standings show Toronto 5-5 and Hamilton 3-8 on the season. This is after Argonauts beat the Tiger-Cats 37-20 last week. However, the Ti-Cats are 3-2 this season at home while the Argos are 1-2 on the road this season. Also, in last week's game at Toronto, Hamilton actually won the yardage battle 452 to 301. The reality is the Tiger-Cats dominated statistically but yet lost by 17 points due to turnovers. That sets this one up absolutely beautifully and we get extra line value here too. The Ti-Cats are much better than their current record shows and Toronto is a bit over-rated plus has been helped by playing 70% of its games at home so far this season. 10* HAMILTON -110 |
|||||||
09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU -3.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Sunday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -3.5 vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - The SEC sure does look strong, as per usual. LSU is the only team yet to play and every other team won their games and there was quite a bit of domination thrown around. Now, as for the ACC, Clemson will meet Georgia Tech tomorrow but, other than that Florida State is the only team yet to play. However, 3 teams already lost games (granted a Louisville or Syracuse was inevitable) and the ACC (other than Clemson) just not on the same level overall as SEC teams overall. LSU is going to be much stronger under new head coach Brian Kelly and they are facing a solid ACC team here but still look at some of yesterday's results. NC State barely beat East Carolina, Louisville scored just 7 points, Boston College and Virginia Tech each lost their games. There is still a gap in levels between these two conferences and the Tigers are VERY hungry and rejuvenated with the Kelly regime now here. LSU is off a disappointing campaign so we are getting line value here. I look for the Tigers to be back with early momentum from the coaching change! The Seminoles also disappointed last season and a win over an FCS school in Week 0 might help confidence but this is not Duquesne they are facing this week! Mike Norvell, HC of FSU, has struggled in his tenure here so far. Keep in mind, HC Kelly was 34-6 with Cincinnati and then went 92-39 with Notre Dame. Florida State, ATS, does not have a good track record in recent games with teams from the Power 5 conferences. 10* LSU -3.5 |
|||||||
09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +3.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +3.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 6 ET - Home dog is getting much healthier now and also has the added confidence of a road win at BC last week under their belts. The Roughriders handed the Lions just their 2nd loss of the season and now they can do the same to the Blue Bombers this week. Winnipeg had a target on their backs off their unbeaten start and now they are off an OT loss and a very tight 2-point win the past two weeks! This is going to be another very tough battle for the Bombers because they are on the road and Saskatchewan is not an easy place to play. Also, the Riders confidence is starting to grow as they have won 2 of 3 since a much needed bye week 4 weeks ago. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +3.5 |
|||||||
09-03-22 | Notre Dame +16 v. Ohio State | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish +16 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Yes the Irish have a new head coach but is not like he is new to the program. He was the defensive coordinator last season and helped transform that unit into a very strong defense. Of course Ohio State is annually one of the best programs in the country but the Irish will play their hearts out for this head coach. The players have responded very well to him and we saw already what he was able to do with the defense last season. That solid D will be a key here in keeping Notre Dame in this game because of course the Ohio State offense is fantastic. The ND offense, despite some personnel losses, is still ultra-talented and I feel the Irish are not being given enough respect in this the game. The line opened up at under 2 TD's but has since risen above that key number. I am happy to grab the extra line value here as the Fighting Irish have been solid in recent road openers and will be up to the challenge here. I would not be surprised to see this game decided by a one score margin as the Irish come in hungry and extremely motivated and are talented enough to keep this game interesting! 8* NOTRE DAME +16 |
|||||||
09-03-22 | Cincinnati v. Arkansas -6.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Razorbacks are an SEC team that lost to Alabama by just 7 points last season while Cincinnati got rolled by the Crimson Tide by 21 in the playoffs. The Bearcats also lost 8 players to the NFL draft so that is a lot of talent now gone from the roster. Arkansas also lost some starters but definitely have the experience edge here plus they have a powerful ground attack that will give the Cats defense some trouble here. This Cincinnati team just not going to be as strong as they were...not even close. The Hogs wear down the Bearcats as this game goes along and get the home win by a double digit margin. 8* ARKANSAS -6.5 |
|||||||
09-02-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal -4 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes -4 vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Montreal has a huge situational edge here as they were off last week. So Alouettes enter off a bye week while Ottawa played in the final game of last week's schedule and it was out west at Edmonton. The Alouettes already defeated the Redblacks this season and that game was at Ottawa. Now they get this rivalry match-up at home and they have the rest edge. Additionally, Redblacks win last week was a bit fortunate as they were outgained by Edmonton in that one but the Elks turned the ball over 5 times - 1 fumble, 1 interception, and 3 times on downs. I like the value here with laying the low number on the home team that should dominate in this one. The Als bye week was preceded by B2B wins and their confidence is growing as they are in the mix for the East Division title for sure. 10* MONTREAL -4 |
|||||||
09-02-22 | Mioveni v. Sepsi -1 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sepsi is a heavy favorite here with good reason. Of course we are not going to lay -200 odds on the money line but I do like Sepsi -1 goal here on the goal line in what should be a dominating win. Mioveni winless on the season and has a -9 goal differential which is worst in the league. Sepsi has suffered B2B losses but one was on the road and one was at home against a Rapid team that is tied with Farul for 1st place in the table. Sepsi has a +3 goal differential on the season and their two victories by a combined 5-0 margin. Look for big victory here for the hosts. Sepsi Goal Line -1 -111 |
|||||||
09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are off an embarrassing 18-2 loss last night but this followed 5 straight wins and the average score of those wins was 9 to 4. In other words, Arizona has been rolling. I am going with action here because this is an overall a team-based and situational play. Another key to the situation here is Brewers are on the road. Yes, Milwaukee has been winning lately but being at home helped them. The Brewers actually have lost 10 of last 13 road games! I am grabbing the +1.5 here on the run line for added insurance as half of Milwaukee's dozen wins after the All Star break came by just one run. They have been winning bigger of late but again a lot of home games too. On the road here I expect them to struggle and note that Woodruff has an ERA two runs higher on the road compared to at home. As for Kelly, he has allowed a total of only 18 earned runs in his last 11 starts and, keep in mind, he went at least 6 innings in 10 of those 11 outings. Excellent home dog value. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 -135 |
|||||||
09-01-22 | Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Thursday CFB 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - So the Lions finished 7-6 last season and got hammered in their bowl game loss to the Razorbacks by a two-TD margin. The Boilermakers went 9-4 last year plus beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Purdue also is at home for this game. The Boilers also return more starters than PSU. Also, though Clifford is a very solid veteran QB for the Nittany Lions, Boilermakers QB O'Connell is probably the 2nd best QB in the conference behind Ohio State's Stroud. So all that said you have Penn State FAVORED by 3.5 points here. You think the odds makers do NOT know what they are doing? The Lions are favored here for a reason DESPITE all the above and a big key is because the Boilers offense lost their top two receivers from last season as one of them was ruled ineligible due to academics while the other one, Bell, is now a Cleveland Brown in the NFL! As for Penn State, no such problems. Not only do they bring back RB Lee, they also have WR Washington back plus they brought in a transfer from Western Kentucky (Tinsley) who had phenomenal numbers for the Hilltoppers last season. PSU has the better defense in this match-up and I know there are some questions about the offensive line for the Lions but that is an area they have filled in nicely despite departures from last season. O'Connell the better QB but Clifford is very solid and led PSU to a 5-0 start last year before he got hurt against Iowa. This Lions team is on a mission this year and they play in the tough east and rank behind only Ohio State and Michigan whereas Boilers play in the weaker West and I would rank them about 4th in Big Ten West. Roll with the road favorite here as they win by at least 7 and, more likely, double digits. 10* PENN STATE -3.5 |
|||||||
08-31-22 | Newcastle United v. Liverpool -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play Liverpool Goal Line -1.5 -125 vs Newcastle United @ 3 ET - Liverpool is not going to win 9-0 again but certainly that dominating victory over Bournemouth (which led to coach Scott Parker being relieved of his duties!) has given the Reds a huge boost of confidence after a slow start to the season. I know that Newcastle managed a draw versus Manchester City earlier this month but that was at home and City did outplay them on possession time and scoring chances. Newcastle is known for being tough to face on their home pitch but often struggling as a traveler and I fully expect that pattern to continue here and will lay the goal line with the hosts in this one. Liverpool has outscored opponents 59-10 in last 21 home matches in league competition. That means an average score of approx 3 to 0.5 goal. A 2.5 goal margin and they are favored at 1.5 goals here. Newcastle has been outscored 36 to 19 in last 21 road matches. Keep in mind that is against all competition not just elite competition and they are averaging about a -1 goal differential in road matches since the start of last season. I have no hesitation in expecting the Reds to win this on their home pitch by a multi-goal margin. 10* LIVERPOOL -1.5 |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -145 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies have won 6 straight and have been hot for weeks. The Pirates have lost 7 straight and are having another disappointing season. Pittsburgh is 21-43 on the road and 18-41 versus teams with a winning record. Philadelphia is 43-21 against teams with a losing record this season. All of the above is why this is a play regardless of pitchers. Like the Phillies plenty here. But now I will touch on those pitchers. Contreras expected to get the call for Pirates and he has some solid numbers this season but does get hit harder on the road. In fact, in his last two road starts against NL playoff level teams like the Phillies - he got rocked by both the Braves and Cardinals. Syndergaard expected to start for Phillies and after a rough first start with Phillies he has pitched well in each of his last three starts with his new club. The right-hander has been settling in nicely and Phillies should win huge again here. The Pirates have lost 13 of 15. Also, 14 of Pittsburgh's last 16 defeats have been by at least 2 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145 |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Tottenham Hotspur -1 v. Nottingham Forest | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Tottenham Hotspur Goal Line -1 -115 vs Nottingham Forest @ 11:30 AM ET - Nottingham Forest has performed better than expected so far this season in a return to the EPL after a long time away after being relegated many years ago. Now they take a major step up in class as, other than Arsenal, no one has looked as strong as Tottenham early this season. The Hotspur should get it done again here and I love the value here since they are on the road. If they were at home they would be too pricey to back here but, because they are traveling, Tottenham is available at a -115 price on the goal line with having to lay just 1 goal. Yes a push is not the ultimate desire but it is some added insurance in a match I am expecting this rock solid Tottenham club to win by a multi-goal margin. The visitors are so strong on both ends of the pitch and I just do not see them being denied here. 10* TOTTENHAM -1 -115 |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Ottawa +3.5 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 25-18 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Ottawa +3.5 @ 7 ET - It is the match-up everyone in the CFL has been patiently waiting for all weekend. All kidding aside, this is a match-up of the last place teams from the respective divisions and will have few eyes on it. But, for our purposes, this one is actually a gem. Ottawa got hammered last week at home by the Elks on the scoreboard courtesy of a bad 2nd half. However, the yardage for the game was nearly equal! Now we get line value backing the Redblacks on the road at Edmonton catching a field goal plus the hook. This is a revenge special and the road dog will be dialed in after what happened last week in Ontario. 10* OTTAWA +3.5 |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -135 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:05 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies have won 5 straight and have been hot for weeks. The Pirates have lost 6 straight and are having another disappointing season. Pittsburgh is 21-42 on the road and 18-40 versus teams with a winning record. Philadelphia is 42-21 against teams with a losing record this season. All of the above is why this is a play regardless of pitchers. Like the Phillies plenty here. But now I will touch on those pitchers. Beede expected to get the call for Pirates and he is 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his 4 starts this month. Gibson expected to start for Phillies and he just recently had a strong tough start versus Mets but has pitched well in each of his last three home starts before that. The right-hander has been settling in nicely and Phillies should win huge again here. The Pirates have lost 12 of 14. Also, 13 of Pittsburgh's last 15 defeats have been by at least 2 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Fulham +1.5 v. Arsenal | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10* Fulham Goal Line +1.5 -105 - Tremendous value on the goal line here. Fulham is playing well so far this season with a victory and two draws. One of the two draws was against Liverpool so it was a quality earn of points for Fulham. Arsenal has been red hot to start this season and also was red hot in the summer friendly action leading into this campaign. All of this I do not deny. However, they are over-valued here. Fulham is built well to be the type of club to give them some issues. These clubs played to a 1-1 draw when they last met in April. I would not be surprised to see another draw here and, at worst, perhaps a 1-goal loss. Consider who Arsenal has faced too because Bournemouth is newly promoted and Leicester is still winless on the campaign. The point is that Arsenal, as well as they have been playing, might be a little over-rated right now and I see Fulham giving them all they can handle. In addition to a 3-2 win, the visitors have also played to a scoreless draw and a 2-2 draw. The point is that Fulham has proven they can be competitive in all types of matches. Fulham is newly promoted this season but they are playing very well already and the season (2020-21) before last season Fulham was known for being tough to beat on the road. They only lost 7 of 19 matches away from home. Keep in mind, even a loss here can still be a win for us if it is by just a 1-goal margin. That, to me, is the most likely out come here as I really like the way the visitors have been playing and they are in this one all the way. 10* FULHAM +1.5 -105 |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Saskatchewan v. BC -4 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions -4 vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 10:30 ET - Yes, the Lions lost QB Nathan Rourke to injury but Michael O'Connor relieved him and went 5 for 5 and he has some CFL experience and had preparation time to now get ready for this start. The Rourke injury is what has the full attention of the marketplace. But the Roughriders are loaded with injuries. Multiple receivers including top guys and also their top running back all out for this game. I feel Saskatchewan is highly over-valued here because they are going to have trouble completing passes downfield without their usual receivers out there. This is a cluster injury situation and even their RB caught 4 targets last week too. The Riders hurting without guys and Lions have been so strong this season and are so tough at home. Feel we have excellent line value with the short home favorite that is a high quality team and back-up QB O'Connor is surrounded by one of the most talented teams in the league. This makes a difference too of course. BC won 28-10 at Saskatchewan last week and I fully understand the loss of Rourke to injury is big but the Lions just far too undervalued here. With a win they are within one win of Winnipeg for the top spot in the division. Look for the Lions to get it. 10* BC -4 |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -132 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies have won 4 straight and have been hot for weeks. The Pirates have lost 5 straight and are having another disappointing season. Pittsburgh is 21-41 on the road and 18-39 versus teams with a winning record. Philadelphia is 41-21 against teams with a losing record this season. All of the above is why this is a play regardless of pitchers. Like the Phillies plenty here. But now I will touch on those pitchers. Wilson expected to get the call for Pirates and he is 2-7 with a 5.74 ERA on the season. In the month of August he has allowed 7 homers and is allowing an average of 1 every 3 innings this month! Falter expected to start for Phillies and he just recently had a strong start at Pittsburgh and has pitched well in each of his last two starts including against a tough Mets lineup. The southpaw is settling in nicely and Phillies should win huge again here. The Pirates have lost 11 of 13. Also, 12 of Pittsburgh's last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -132 |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Calgary +6 v. Winnipeg | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Winnipeg will suffer unbeaten letdown here. The Blue Bombers are off a bye week which followed a loss in Week 10 in OT versus Montreal. It was Winnipeg's first loss of the season after opening the year 9-0. Now the Bombers will feel the pressure of trying to get right back into the win column and they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Calgary is one of the top teams in the league and the Stampeders only have 3 losses on the season. One was by just a single point to another very strong team, BC, a few weeks ago. The other two losses were by just 7 points apiece and both were to this Blue Bombers team. The Stamps actually led Winnipeg heading to the 4th quarter of the most recent game but fell just short. Getting a full 6 points here and I really like the QB battle going on between Maier and Mitchell right now with Calgary. Maier getting the nod here and this will spark the team just like it did in their win last week when the switch was made. The world will back Blue Bombers here thinking they must bounce back off the loss but this Stamps team is extremely good, very focused, solid defensively, force turnovers, solid pass protection, and ready for payback here. Love the value of having the 6 points here should the Stampeders fall short of the upset win. We'll take it. 10* CALGARY +6 |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
MLB Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -150 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers as this is all about the better overall team and the current streaks involving each of these clubs. However, will mention the expected starting pitchers for for the Phillies is Aaron Nola and he is on a 37-17 run in home games since the start of the 2017 season. He has dominated in Philly and also enters this start off a rare tough one versus Mets after compiling a 1.35 ERA over his 3 prior starts. Cincinnati expected to start Justin Dunn here and he got hammered in his first two starts this month after joining the big club and then, though he had some success in most recent start, he still struggled with command walked too many and that was against a bad Pirates team. The pitching-thin Reds already more thin heading into this game in terms of bullpen arms. Philadelphia the better team and at home and tonight is about the situational and overall team factors and lineup strengths rather than the pitching. The Reds entered this series off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 10 prior to that and sure enough have now lost each of the first three games in this series. Also, those B2B Cincinnati wins came against a struggling Pirates team. The Phillies have won 19 of 27 - including 5 of 6 versus Reds - after yesterday's win by a multi-run margin. Lay it again with the run line here as Reds 28-49 in night games and 10-20 against NL East foes and 58 of 74 losses by multi-run margin this season. Reds horrible on road and against teams with a winning record this season. Phillies 17-9 vs NL Central teams and 39-19 against teams with a losing record. Regardless of starting pitchers (our play here is action), the hosts roll big in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -150 |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers as this is all about the better overall team and the fact we get line value because they are using an inexperienced hurler here so the line is kept more manageable. So don't care who the starters are but Phillies Sanchez should have success here if called upon. Cincinnati expected to start Zeuch here and he got hammered in his only two starts this season and that includes his most recent against the Phillies. As for Sanchez, he actually has enjoyed some success and proven tough to hit in his two starts this season. The pitching-thin Reds already more thin heading into this game in terms of bullpen arms. Philadelphia the better team and at home and tonight is about the situational and overall team factors and lineup strengths rather than the pitching. The Reds entered this series off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 10 prior to that and sure enough have now lost each of the first two games in this series. Also, those B2B Cincinnati wins came against a struggling Pirates team. The Phillies have won 18 of 26 - including 4 of 5 versus Reds - after yesterday's win though it came by a one-run margin after Monday's victory was by a multi-run margin. Lay it again with the run line here as Reds 28-48 in night games and 10-19 against NL East foes and 57 of 73 losses by multi-run margin this season. Reds horrible on road and against teams with a winning record this season. Phillies 16-9 vs NL Central teams and 38-19 against teams with a losing record. Regardless of starting pitchers (our play here is action), the hosts roll big in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -100 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers as essentially yesterday was a bullpen game for the Reds as I expected even though they were not calling it that. Cincinnati expected to get a lot out of Luis Cessa there but he got hammered in his only start this season and has not pitched that great out of the bullpen this season either. Sure enough he got hammered and lasted just two innings so the pitching-thin Reds already more thin heading into this game in terms of bullpen arms. Philadelphia the better team and at home and tonight is about the situational and overall team factors and lineup strengths rather than the pitching. Will mention that Lodolo is the expected starter for Reds and he is winless with an 8.49 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Suarez is the expected starter for Phillies and he has allowed a TOTAL of just 4 earned runs over his last 6 starts spanning 35 innings! The Reds entered this series off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 10 prior to that and sure enough got hammered 4-1 yesterday. Also, the B2B wins came against a struggling Pirates team. The Phillies have won 17 of 25 - including 3 of 4 versus Reds - after yesterday's win by a multi-run margin. Lay it again with the run line here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -100 |
|||||||
08-22-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers as essentially this is a bullpen game for the Reds even though they are not calling it that. Cincinnati expects to get a lot out of Luis Cessa here but he got hammered in his only start this season and has not pitched that great out of the bullpen this season either. Also, prior to his lone start this season, he had not started a game since 2018. Now he faces an angry Phillies team as they just struggled against the Mets including losing the series finale despite scoring 9 runs in that game. Philadelphia the better team and at home and in a good situation given the loss yesterday. Look for payback here as they take on a lesser team. There is a concern about the weather in Philly this evening but as the night goes on they should get this game in and this is another reason I don't even care if Syndergaard starts or not either. Tonight is about the situational and overall team factors and lineup strengths rather than the pitching. Will mention that Syndergaard has been better in his last couple starts and is starting to show glimpses of being quite strong again as he is rounding into form as a Phillie now. The Reds are off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 10 prior to that and winning streaks of 3 or more games have been very rare for Cincy this season. Also, the B2B wins came against a struggling Pirates team. The Phillies had won 16 of 23 - including 2 of 3 versus Reds - before yesterday's loss. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
|||||||
08-21-22 | Eagles v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The weather is a concern in Cleveland for this one Sunday but hopefully they get this one in even if the start time of the game is delayed. Really like the Browns a lot here as the Eagles recent history of preseason ineptitude continued last week at home when they blew an early 14-0 lead by getting blown out 24-7 the rest of the way. Philly is now just 1-6-1 SU last 8 preseason games. The Browns, on the other hand, are off another preseason win last week and are now 7-1 SU last 8 preseason games. That one loss was by just a single point so, at the current line of +2.5 on this game...Cleveland would be 8-0 ATS last 8 preseason games. Dobbs and Rosen combined for 16 of 20 passing in last week's win for the Browns so the news about QB Watson really does not have any bearing on how a preseason game like this plays out anyway. Also, the Browns defense played well last week with QB pressure (and multiple sacks) plus notching two interceptions. In a potentially ugly-weather game I am happy to back the home dog here. 10* CLEVELAND +2.5 |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -115 vs Miami Marlins @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers as I simply love a powerful Dodgers team to blast a Marlins team that so often struggles to score runs. I will mention the pitchers though here first. Tyler Anderson having a huge season including 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA in home outings this season. Jesus Luzardo can be dominant at times but he has struggled at times when facing tough lineups this season and the Dodgers certainly fit the bill in that regard. Also, this is still a guy that went 6-9 with a 6.61 ERA last season. He has been much better this season but still allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the Braves in his most recent start. Luzardo also recently allowed 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings at Arizona and now faces an even tougher road challenge here. The Dodgers are off a loss and are 11-2 the last 13 times when off a loss. Also, LA almost always wins their games by a multi-run margin. 89% of Dodgers wins this season have been by 2+ runs. Los Angeles has scored an average of 7 runs per victory in their 21 wins since the All Star break. The Marlins have lost 14 of 19 games and scored an average of only 2 runs per game last 18 games. You read that right...TWO runs average last 18 games. They are not hitting. Dodgers can and will! 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS RUN LINE -1.5 -115 |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +4.5 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Situational edge for Redblacks coming off bye week and Elks playing final game on last week's schedule. Still I can not see Ottawa as being worthy of being a 4.5 point favorite here. Yes, Edmonton just lost at home to Saskatchewan but they actually outgained the Roughriders 365 to 261 in that game. The Elks had a fumble lost and threw an interception in the game and turned it over on downs once also. That was the difference in the game and now we are getting line value this week as a result. Keep in, both Edmonton's win this season have come on the road. In fact the road team is now 6-3 SU in Elks games this season. Edmonton is perfect 2-0 SU against East Division teams this season. Redblacks are 0-5 SU this season against West Division teams and also 0-4 SU this season in home games. As you can see, that makes this a triple perfect spot in favor of the Elks. Given the above being all SU stats we may not even need the points here but I will grab them as added insurance. 10* EDMONTON +4.5 |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Rockies v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers as the fact is Rockies just so bad on road again this season and Cardinals so strong at home again this season. These are long-term trends too as year after year Colorado tends to struggle on the road while St Louis tends to be so tough at home. More of the same expected here but now I will touch on the starting pitchers but like this game regardless of starters. Wainwright is known for being so strong at home throughout his career and that has been the case again this season. This includes allowing 1 earned run or less in 5 of last 6 home starts. In fact, Wainwright has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in the 37.1 innings spanning those 5 starts. Senzatela has had a very rough season for the Rockies and is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA in his 7 road starts this season and he has a 5.28 ERA and has been hit a ridiculous .396 clip in his 6 day game starts this year. The home team rolls to big margin win here. 10* ST LOUIS -1.5 -105 |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Francisco Giants Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - You know Carlos Rodon wants this one and I expect him to pitch "lights out" in this one. He is 0-2 versus Arizona this season despite allowing only 8 hits in 11 innings while striking out 17 in his two starts against the Diamondbacks. Against the rest of the teams he is 11-4 with a 2.55 ERA this season! As for Arizona's Zach Davies, he has a 5.00 ERA in road games this season. Also, Davies ERA in night games is about a full run higher compared to day games. Regardless of starting pitchers, this one is a play for me. Take action on the pitchers. The Giants have won 8 of 10 games. The Dbacks have lost 23 of last 32 road games. Also, of the 11 wins that San Francisco has in Rodon's starts this season 10 of them (91%) have been by 2 or more runs. I am very comfortable with the run line here as, overall, 73% of Giants wins this season by 2 or more runs and we even get plus money here by laying the run line with the home team. 10* SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +105 |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - I lost with this play yesterday despite Phillies winning as they won by only 1 run. However, I will come right back with the run line here as a lot of signs point to another Philadelphia win here but this time by blowout margin. Action on pitchers as I simply love this situational spot for the Phillies. But will touch on the pitchers here first. Gibson has been fantastic recently for the Phillies in his last 3 starts overall. Also, if you look at his last two road starts, he was practically unhittable. Gibson is fully capable of dominating the Reds on the road in this one. As for Zeuch, the Reds big righty is 2-5 and has a 5.26 ERA in his MLB career. I look for the Phillies to pound him. Philadelphia got back on track with a win yesterday. The Phils were off B2B losses after a red hot 13-2 run and Phillies have averaged 6 runs per game in their 15 victories since the All-Star break. The Reds off another loss yesterday and have now lost 8 of 11 games. Also, Cincinnati - not including extra innings - has scored more than 3 runs just TWICE in their last 14 games! The Reds offense will not keep up with the Phillies here and the visitors pull away for the win by a multi-run margin. Prior to yesterday's one run defeat, each of Cincinnati's last 8 losses had come by 2 or more runs. Phillies roll to huge road win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers as I simply love this situational spot for the Phillies. But will touch on the pitchers here first. Syndergaard was much better in his most recent start with his new team and he is fully capable of dominating the Reds on the road in this one. As for Minor, the Reds lefty is 1-9 and has a 6.24 ERA on the season. I look for the Phillies to pound him. Philadelphia off B2B losses after a red hot 13-2 run and Phillies have averaged 6 runs per game in their 14 victories since the All-Star break. The Reds off a win but this after losing 7 of 9 games. Also, prior to that win, Cincinnati - not including extra innings - had scored more than 3 runs just ONCE in their last DOZEN games! The Reds offense will not keep up with the Phillies here and the visitors pull away for the win by a multi-run margin. Each of Cincinnati's last 8 losses by 2 or more runs. Phillies roll to huge road win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Vikings +5 v. Raiders | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - This line just too high in my opinion. The Raiders not only being asked to win this game but to win it by a sizable margin. Note that though Vegas won last week in the HOF Game that was against a dreadful Jaguars team that has now been outscored 51 to 24 in two preseason games this season and has lost 8 of last 9 preseason games. Now Raiders laying sizable points against a Vikings team that has seen its last 7 games feature only 1 game that was a loss by more than 4 points for them. Vegas head coach McDaniels came from a Patriots organization use to winning. Feel certain there is a little more hunger for the younger O'Connell here a little more eager. He came from the Rams organization but prior to that was mired in the Washington organization. I feel he and the Vikes are being undervalued here. 10* MINNESOTA +4.5 |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Saskatchewan -5 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders -5.5 @ Edmonton Elks @ 10 ET - Great spot here as Saskatchewan off a home loss to a tough BC team two weeks ago and now has had a bye week to fully prepare for this one in a bounce back spot. The Roughriders will take advantage of facing an Elks team that just got hammered by the same Lions team 46-14. The problem for Edmonton is they can't stop anyone. The Elks are allowing 36.3 points per game on the season and are winless at home. The Riders have struggled recently but have had a chance, with a bye week, to hit the reset button now and have allowed only 15.5 points in their 4 victories this season. The Roughriders won the first meeting here in Edmonton by double digits and I expect another big road win here as the Elks struggles continue. 10* SASKATCHEWAN -5.5 |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton +1.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Yes, Hamilton lost at Toronto last week but the Ti-Cats outgained the Argos and blew a 4th quarter lead. Toronto won the game courtesy of an INT returned for a TD and a punt returned for a TD. Yes I know that QB Dane Evans is out for Hamilton for this game and Matthew Shiltz is getting this start. He has been in the league for 5 seasons and I like him to get the job here. In fact, when in Montreal he was called upon for a spot start in a similar situation and played very well against these same Argonauts. Once again, look for him to beat Toronto here. The Tiger-Cats defense played well last week and the Argos defense got some key plays but overall allowed a lot more yardage than did the Ti-Cats. We have excellent line value here with the hungry home dog in this rivalry game and seeing the Argonauts where they want to be...first place in the division. 10* HAMILTON +1.5 |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Montreal +12 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +12 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Blue Bombers are 9-0 on the season but have their first bye week of the season on deck. Don't be surprised if Winnipeg gets caught starting their bye week early. You see this so often with teams off to red hot starts in football and then they have an off week on deck that they are so excited about they get caught taking "off" a little bit too early. Yes, the Bombers just beat the Alouettes by 15 at Montreal last week but that game was tied at 14 entering the 4th quarter! Also, statistically there was not a huge gap between the two teams in that game but the bigger plays went the way of Winnipeg in that one. This is helping to give us line value here as this line is inflated and I fully expect the Als to give the Blue Bombers another challenging game and, this time, the underdog stays inside the number. 10* MONTREAL +12 |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - It is a new year. Just like we saw the Hall of Fame Game go over the total after a history of being dominated by unders, there is a changing of the guard underway. The Ravens have long been known for preseason success as coach John Harbaugh has shown a hunger to win even in the games that do not count. However, this Baltimore team is not what it once was and, even if the Ravens win this game, I expect the margin of victory to be 3 or less points. Note that Baltimore has been a good team for many years in regular season too for sure, not just preseason. But last year they had an 8-9 SU record in the regular season and went 2-9 ATS as a favorite! The Titans went 12-5 SU last season and are now 23-10 SU last two regular seasons SU. As for ATS records, Tennessee went 6-1 ATS as an underdog last season and is now 9-2 ATS the last seasons as an underdog. Again, this is OF COURSE not a regular season game but I see value here with a high quality team catching more than a field goal against a team trending the wrong direction that is over-valued because of past pre-season successes. Like I said in the lead-in for this one, it is a new year! Don't get me wrong, Ravens still a high-quality team but so too are Titans and big value with the points here in my opinion. 10* TENNESSEE +3.5 |
|||||||
08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play New York Mets Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - Justin Dunn starts for Reds here. He makes his first MLB appearance of this season but at AAA level of the minors he went 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA in 7 starts while getting hard hard plus walking 16 in 26 innings. Chris Bassitt starts for the Mets here and he has a 3.06 ERA at home and deserves a better record than he has. He should get a W added to the win column here if he starts as he has allowed just 15 earned runs total in his last 8 starts and he has gone at least 6 innings in all those outings. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, I am making this bet with action, note that the Mets have won 12 of 14 games and are red hot with 11 of those 12 wins by at least a 2 run margin! I know the Reds have been winning lately too but they have not scored much with just 1 of those games being a strong game offensively out of last 7 and in the other 6 they averaged only 1.8 runs scored per game (not including extra innings). Cincinnati will not be able to keep up with potent Mets lineup here no matter who the pitchers are. 10* NEW YORK METS -1.5 -140 |
|||||||
08-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -145 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - With a huge 11-5 blowout win yesterday after a 7-2 rout win Friday over the Nationals, Philly continues to build momentum. Before too much longer, Harper is expected back in the lineup for the Phillies and they have maintained a wild card spot even with him out of the lineup. This speaks volumes to the fact this Philly team has a solid clubhouse and is building momentum. Now they get a rock solid Aaron Nola on the mound (3-1 with 2.33 ERA and .185 BAA in his 6 day starts) and they continue to take on the NL East punching bag otherwise known as the Nationals. Cory Abbott has disastrous numbers at the AAA level and very little experience at the MLB level. Last year he was 5-6 with a 5.91 ERA at the AAA level. This season on the mound for AAA clubs for the Cubs first and now Washington he has gone a combined 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA. Regardless of the pitchers here, I am going with the home team run line in this one. The Nationals are 17-42 against teams with a winning record this season and also an incredibly poor 9-41 in divisional games this season. This one sets up well to be another home blowout as Philly has been hot and the Nats have remained ice cold. It is worth laying the price as the Phillies have won 9 of 10 overall plus have dominated the Nationals this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145 |
|||||||
08-06-22 | Hamilton +2 v. Toronto | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - Hamilton is looking up in the division standings at Toronto and they have extra motivation here and are the better defense. The Tiger-Cats have allowed just 19 points per game in their 3 games since a bye week. As for Toronto, they have allowed 29 points per game last 5 games. This is a value spot because the Ti-Cats are winless in road games this season but, in my opinion, are the better team and that is precisely why the odds makers have priced this game the way they have. The road team is a very small dog for a reason and I sense an upset here but will grab the couple points being offered just in case. 10* HAMILTON +2 |
|||||||
08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - With a huge 7-2 blowout win yesterday over the Nationals, Philly continues to build momentum. Before too much longer, Harper is expected back in the lineup for the Phillies and they have maintained a wild card spot even with him out of the lineup. This speaks volumes to the fact this Philly team has a solid clubhouse and is building momentum. Now they get a red hot Ranger Suarez on the mound (0.00 ERA last 3 starts) and they continue to take on the NL East punching bag otherwise known as the Nationals. Corbin is having a disastrous season on the mound for Washington and has been particularly poor on the road this year. Regardless of the pitchers here, I am going with the home team run line in this one. The Nationals are 17-41 against teams with a winning record this season and also an incredibly poor 9-40 in divisional games this season. This one sets up well to be another home blowout as Philly has been hot and the Nats have remained ice cold. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
|||||||
08-06-22 | Steaua Bucharesti -0.75 v. Mioveni | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -127 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
Romania Liga I Saturday 10* Top Play FCSB Goal Line -0.5 -127 @ CS Mioveni @ 7 ET - We get line value here because Football Club Steaua Bucharesti is winless on the season, just like CS Mioveni, but is on the road for this one so we get a manageable goal line. I will not hesitate to step in and get involved here. Yes FCSB still seeking first win but at least they have been somewhat competitive. Mioveni, on the other hand, has been totally blown out in all 3 matches and has lost each by a multiple goal margin. The hosts for this one have been outscored 9-2 this season and I look for a very hungry visitor to take advantage of facing a downtrodden host and get the road win here. 10* FCSB Goal Line -0.5 -127 |
|||||||
08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes +5.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7:30 ET - After this week is in the books Winnipeg will be the only team that still has not had a bye week as Saskatchewan is finally getting theirs this week and some teams have already had multiple bye weeks. That said, the undefeated Blue Bombers are in a bit of a tough spot here. Winnipeg is on short rest and pretty worn out for this Thursday game considering the huge effort that has gone into their season thus far. With consideration to that, I love the home dog Montreal here. The Als have played only 2 home games so far this season and no team has fewer. So they have had a bit of a tough schedule, to say the least, and though only 1-1 at home, one was a 1-point loss to a West Division team and the other was a 37-13 win over a West Division team. That said, the Alouettes fully capable of hanging tough with Winnipeg here and will do just that. An outright upset will not be a shock to me but I am grabbing the generous points here as added insurance. 10* MONTREAL +5.5 |