Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-17 | Blazers -125 v. Mavs | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas is in a tough spot. The Mavericks just played in Denver's high altitude last night and lost by 23 points. Wesley Matthews limped off the floor in that game so he might not play today. The Mavericks have won only once in 10 tries when playing without rest this season. Portland is in short revenge having lost 108-104 to the Mavericks at home this past Friday. All-Star Damian Lillard was outplayed in that game by unheralded Yogi Ferrell. That's not going to happen again.
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02-07-17 | Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
It's difficult to not think at least six goals will be scored here. |
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02-07-17 | Blue Jackets -117 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Columbus hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see it happening here. Since winning 16 consecutive games, the Blue Jackets have gone 6-8-1 and were flat returning home from a five-game losing streak losing 5-1 to the Devils this past Saturday. Now the Blue Jackets have been idle the past two days and in stop-the-pain mode. Columbus has won five of the last six times following a loss and are 15-3 going back to last season when having two or more days off following their previous game. The Blue Jackets have the No. 1 power play in the league and can take advantage of Detroit's weak goaltending. The Red Wings are off one-goal victories against the Islanders at home and Predators on the road. The Red Wings were outshot by a combined 35 shots in those two victories. Detroit is down two key players, too, with defenseman Niklas Kronwall and forward Frans Nielsen each out with injuries.
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02-07-17 | Flames v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Johnny Gaudreau has picked up his play lately and the Flames have scored 15 goals in their last four games. |
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02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games.
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02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
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02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 205 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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02-06-17 | Sabres v. Devils -117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Since opening 7-0-2 at home, the Devils have dropped seven consecutive games in New Jersey. I see the Devils ended their home game losing skid here, though. The Devils need to make their move now if they're going to get into the playoffs. This is the first of five consecutive games for New Jersey. The Devils are placing tremendous emphasis on this matchup. They don't play again until Sunday. So nothing is going to be held back. New Jersey has its perfect patsy in place to accomplish that - Buffalo. The Sabres have lost six of their last eight road contests. They are 1-7 in their past eight meetings versus the Devils going 1-5 in New Jersey. The Devils are 2-0 against the Sabres this season winning 2-1 on the road and 4-2 at home. The Devils need Taylor Hall to step up. Hall broke out of his scoring slump with two goals in the Devils' last game, an impressive 5-1 road win against the Blue Jackets this past Saturday.
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02-06-17 | Sabres v. Devils OVER 5 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
The Sabres have scored three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. The over is 7-0-1 in Buffalo's past eight road contests. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 306 h 10 m | Show |
It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever. Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that. Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown. The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players. There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less. The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high. Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski. The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming. It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go. Prop Bet Recommendations: I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions. My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.
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02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season.
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02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
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02-04-17 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 224.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense. |
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02-04-17 | Wild v. Canucks OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Minnesota is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 11 games. The Wild have gone consistently over, too, during their last 23 games posting a 17-3-3 mark to the over. Only three of those games had less than five goals scored in them. So I think this total is short. |
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02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss.
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02-04-17 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The Blues are really stressing defense following the coaching change from Ken Hitchcock to Mike Yeo. That was evident in the Blues' first game under Yeo when they held the Maple Leafs to just one goal in their last game. The Penguins have gotten healthy on defense. They've surrendered two or fewer goals in four of their last seven games. The two teams just met on Jan. 24 in Pittsburgh and the Blues won, 3-0, behind goalie Carter Hutton, who could get the call today.
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02-04-17 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Dallas has gone over the total in seven of its last home games. The Stars have scored 13 goals in their last three games showings signs of being as strong offensively as last season. |
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02-04-17 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the day after Christmas to find the last time Orlando won consecutive games. I see a big letdown in store here for the Magic following their 102-94 home win against Toronto Friday night. That victory was just Orlando's third in its last 11 games and fifth in its past 19 games. This is the first time in three weeks the Magic are playing without rest. Orlando averages fewer than 100 points a game. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively. The Hawks have been inconsistent, but should be motivated following a 113-108 win at Houston two days ago when they came from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. A loss to the lowly Magic would just give that victory back. Atlanta has covered the last two times it was laying more than seven points. Saturday Free Play Jazz minus 7 1/2 hosting Hornets The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
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02-04-17 | San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico | 78-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests.
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02-04-17 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. |
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02-04-17 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss | 64-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday.
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02-04-17 | Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity.
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02-04-17 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win.
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02-04-17 | Kings v. Flyers -108 | 1-0 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
The Flyers are playing better now winning four of their last five. They draw the Kings in a great situational spot here. The Kings just hosted Colorado on Wednesday night and had to fly cross-country. The early start time - 10 a.m. LA time - makes it nearly a back-to-back spot for the Kings. They are 0-2 this season in early road starts losing to Boston and Winnipeg. LA has won four in a row, but have beaten weaken competition defeating the Avalanche, Coyotes and Devils. The Kings have a marquee matchup on Sunday playing on the road against the Capitals. Kings goalie Peter Budaj is 1-3 lifetime versus the Flyers with a 3.23 GAA.
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02-03-17 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break. The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA. |
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02-03-17 | Ducks v. Panthers OVER 5 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
I can easily see at least five goals being scored here. Florida is off its best offensive performance of the season beating Ottawa, 6-5, this past Tuesday. The Panthers' scoring should pick up even more with the return of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. The Ducks got a spark from the return of Jakob Silfverberg in their last game, a 5-1 victory against Colorado this past Tuesday. Silfverberg had three points against the Avalanche, including two goals. He had missed the previous three games due to a concussion. The Ducks catch a break, too, in that backup James Reimer is expected to start in goal. He's one of the lesser regarded backup goalies in the league.
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02-03-17 | St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. |
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02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
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02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
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02-02-17 | UAB -5 v. UTEP | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games.
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02-02-17 | Portland State +4 v. Idaho | 72-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record.
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02-02-17 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona.
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02-02-17 | Maple Leafs v. Blues -115 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Look for the Blues to come out strong at home in their first game under new coach Mike Yeo. The Blues have been inconsistent all season and it cost coach Ken Hitchcock his job even though this was to be his final season. I see a supreme effort from the Blues. Toronto has loads of young talent, but the Maple Leafs are up and down and right now they're down having lost four of their last six, including the past two. The Maple Leafs could be missing their best defenseman, Morgan Rielly, again and goalie Frederik Anderson was terrible coming off All-Star break in a 6-3 loss to Dallas this past Tuesday. |
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02-02-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Rockets | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't going to go quietly here after getting whipped 116-93 by Miami last night. Look for the Hawks to ramp up their intensity level. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing without rest. Houston has had problems with the Hawks in the past losing the past six times against them while covering only once. The Hawks beat the Rockets by 15 points in their first meeting this season. The Rockets aren't playing as well as they were before when they went 20-2. They are just 5-7 during their last 12 games. Houston has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. James Harden hasn't been 100 percent either dealing with a sore knee. His poor shooting - 6 of 26 from the floor the past two games - reflects that.
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02-02-17 | Rangers v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
The Rangers are the No. 2 goal scoring team in the NHL. But shaky goaltending makes the Rangers a good over team. They lost 6-4 to the Blue Jackets in their first game following the All-Star break. The over has cashed in 7 of the Rangers' last 8 road games. |
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02-01-17 | Wild -120 v. Flames | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Sometimes it's better to play having just been in action the night before. That's the case here with Minnesota, which beat Edmonton 5-2 on Tuesday coming off the long All-Star break. The Wild are plus 54 in goal differential, by far the best among Western Conference clubs and will be ready to skate. They hold edges in all areas against the Flames and should be highly-motivated with double revenge incentive. Calgary last played six days ago. So the Flames figure to be rusty. They entered the break having lost six of their last eight games.
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02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. |
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02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
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02-01-17 | Hawks -125 v. Heat | 93-116 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami is hot, but Atlanta is the better team. The Hawks have proven that twice already this season beating the Heat in both meetings by three and eight points, respectively. The Heat have won eight in a row, but their last four victories have been against the Nets, Pistons, Bulls and Nets again. This is a step up. Miami also is playing for the fourth time in six days, while the Hawks have had two full days to recover from their four overtime win against the Knicks this past Sunday. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.
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02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +3 | 98-88 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time. Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached. Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here.
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01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
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01-31-17 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The spot isn't ideal for either team setting up an under play. The Kings are concluding an eight-game road trip. This is their fourth game in five days and second in two nights. They are not going to look to run with Houston. The Kings will want to slow tempo and try to patiently feed DeMarcus Cousins inside. Cousins is having a huge season, but the Kings do not have a reliable second scoring option with Rudy Gay out with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Houston just got back from five straight road games. So the Rockets might not have their full focus. There is a strong below the total history in this type of situation for Houston with the under cashing 22 of the last 29 times the Rockets have played at home following being away from seven or more days. The Kings have been playing underrated defense, too, surrendering 107 or fewer points during regulation in seven of their last eight games.
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01-30-17 | Cavs -4 v. Mavs | 97-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
In a word, no Dallas can't upset San Antonio and Cleveland on back-to-back days. The Cavaliers are playing better now. Dallas is playing better, too, after a 4-17 start. But the Mavericks don't have near the Cavaliers' talent being two-to-three levels behind them. Deron Williams isn't likely to play leaving the short-handed Dallas backcourt in the hands of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Neither is an NBA starting caliber guard. Cleveland buried Dallas, 128-90, when the teams last met on Nov. 25.
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01-30-17 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 210.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games. |
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01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
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01-29-17 | Mavs v. Spurs OVER 195 | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games. However, San Antonio scored just 103 points in a 119-103 road loss to the Pelicans on Friday. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker had just gotten back into the lineup and were rusty. They should be much better now and the Spurs will be motivated to put that loss to the Pelicans behind them with a big scoring effort. San Antonio is weaker defensively with David Lee at center replacing injured Pau Gasol. |
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01-29-17 | Rockets v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Considering the circumstances and matchup, this total is too high. Houston is an up-tempo, high-energy team that launches more 3-pointer than any team. But this marks the end of the Rockets' five-game, nine-day road swing so energy could be lacking. The Pacers also have the necessary perimeter defense to slow down Houston ranking fifth in 3-point defense. The Rockets might be without Eric Gordon, their second-leading scorer, for a third consecutive game. He's dealing with a sore back. Trevor Ariza, the Rockets' fourth-leading scorer, is mired in an 8-for-32 shooting slump during the last four games. Indiana has a reputation as a high-scoring team. But the Pacers are averaging 102.4 points in regulation during their last five games and rank just 14th in scoring.
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01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
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01-28-17 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 232 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Even with these two high-scoring teams it's going to be tough to go over a total this high. The Nuggets are going to be without Nikola Jokic, who has been an absolute monster. He has a left hip strain and is out. Denver also could be missing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. He's sat out the last three games with back problems. The teams just met on Thursday and the Nuggets won, 127-120, in Denver. Ancient Jameer Nelson filled in for Mudiay and logged 41:47. He's going to be in trouble trying to handle the pace if Mudiay can't play and he has to log major minutes like that again. This is the team's fourth meeting. So they certainly are familiar with each other, a plus for the under. The Suns are in a triple-revenge spot having lost the first three games of the seasons series to the Nuggets so their intensity level should be raised. It's also the sixth different venue in a row for the Suns so that's another plus for the under.
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01-28-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Heat | 103-116 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the Pistons, who haven't played since Monday when they lost 109-104 at home to the Kings. The Pistons have been pointing to this game since. Miami is off an upset of the Bulls in Chicago last night. The Heat accomplished that without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable here. The Heat have lost six of the past eight times when playing without rest. The Pistons have matched up well to the Heat winning by nine and 23 points.
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01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Despite losing Rudy Gay, the Kings have proven tough on the road in their last three games upsetting the Pistons as a seven-point 'dog, stunning the Cavaliers as a 10 1/2-point 'dog and covering as a 4 1/2-point 'dog in a 115-111 overtime loss to the Pacers last night. But now the Kings have reached the end of their long road swing. This marks their sixth away matchup in nine days. It's too much of a leap of faith to believe the Kings - traditionally a horrible road club - can have much left for Charlotte. The Hornets desperately need this game. They've lost three in a row and take off for a three-game West Coast road trip following this game where they will take on the Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Charlotte has dropped its past seven road games. Hence, the importance of this home matchup for the Hornets. Charlotte has won four of its last six home contests with one of the losses coming to the Warriors. During this span, the Hornets have defeated the Thunder by 11, Trail Blazers by 22 and Raptors by 35. So they're certainly capable of covering this mid-size number against the lottery-bound Kings.
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01-28-17 | Eastern Washington v. Montana State UNDER 154 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series. Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high. |
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01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points.
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01-28-17 | Kansas State -110 v. Tennessee | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory. |
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01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line.
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01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
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01-27-17 | Harvard -6 v. Cornell | 77-71 | Push | 0 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
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01-26-17 | Lightning -102 v. Panthers | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
I see a buy sign on the Lightning following their impressive 5-2 road win against the Blackhawks on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has been playing better and getting solid goaltending lately in holding five of its last six opponents to two goals or less. The Lightning's offense got going against the Blackhawks especially Tyler Johnson, who scored two third-period goals. Florida has been racked with injuries and turmoil still lacking consistency following the controversial firing of coach Gerard Gallant with GM Tom Rowe taking over. The Panthers are playing their first home game since Jan. 14 following four consecutive road games - all losses. I see signs of a turnaround for Tampa Bay that I don't find with Florida.
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01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
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01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
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01-24-17 | Wild v. Stars +113 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The Stars are in a great home ambush spot here. Dallas has been idle the past two days, while the Wild is playing for the fifth time in eight days and third time in four days. This is Minnesota's first road matchup in five games and the Wild go right back home to host the Blues on Thursday. Dallas nearly beat the Capitals in its last game losing in overtime. The Stars' offense could be coming around with 20 goals in their last six games. The Stars have revenge here for 5-4 home loss to Minnesota 10 days ago. Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk is having a great season, but historically has struggled against Dallas.
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01-24-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame +1 | 71-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt. |
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01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
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01-24-17 | Kings -115 v. Devils | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Kings, losers of four in a row. They are playing in their second road game in two days after losing to the Rangers last night, but this is a short trip. Peter Budaj should be back in goal for the Kings after resting against the Rangers. The Devils either will be going with backup goalie Keith Kinkaid, or Cory Schneider, who has been sick and missed the last two games. The Devils are just 2-7-1 in their last 10 home games.
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01-23-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | 71-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Arlington averages 86 points at home. That's a big reason why the Mavericks are 7-0 at home. They have too much offense and rebounding for Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their second road game in three days. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 Sun Belt Conference games and can't be trusted on the road where they have been inconsistent.
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01-23-17 | Flames v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Toronto ranks third in shots on goal and power play goals. Only five teams score more per game than the Maple Leafs. Toronto has notched three or more goals in 11 of its last 13 games. Calgary is a below average defensive team. The Flames have allowed 11 goals in their last two games. They've scored 11 goals, though, during their past three games. The Flames' matchup is helped by Morgan Rielly, the Maple Leafs' best defenseman, likely missing a third consecutive game due to an ankle injury. Monday Free Play Avalanche plus $1.95 hosting Sharks Granted, Colorado is the worst team in the NHL. But the Avalanche have been playing better lately and catch San Jose carrying a high fatigue rating and in a vulnerable spot. So at this huge 'dog price the Avalanche are worth a peanut. The teams just met in San Jose on Saturday. The Avalanche actually outplayed the Sharks, but lost 3-2 in overtime. Colorado played well in its previous game, too, a 2-1 road loss to Anaheim on Thursday. "I think that we're doing certain things better now than we have at any point during the season," Colorado coach Jared Bednar was quoted as saying. The Sharks are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They aren't going to be helped playing in Denver's high altitude. The Sharks also have a more challenging road game against Winnipeg on Tuesday. So that could mean a backup goalie starting for San Jose and a reduction in minutes for certain key players. The Avalanche have short revenge going. They aren't going to lack for motivation. |
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01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors -11.5 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games and off a 113-78 embarrassing loss to the Hornets on the road this past Friday. That was Toronto's lowest-scoring game of the season. I see the Raptors bouncing back in a big way against the Suns, who are in a rare fat-and-happy state. The Suns just nipped the Knicks, 107-105, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. They return to the desert for a four-game homestand following this matchup. Despite only scoring 78 points against the Hornets, the Raptors are the third-highest scoring team in the league. Phoenix allows the second-most points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. They also are 7-3 ATS following a SU loss. The Raptors have added revenge motivation, too. The Suns defeated them 99-91 on Dec. 29. This marks the Suns' third road game in four days. It's also an early start time for the Suns.
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 224.5 | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under. It's easy to think of offense when thinking about the Warriors with Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But Golden State is No. 1 in defense per 100 possession. The under has cashed in 11 of Golden State's last 12 road games. Orlando ranks 25th offensively. The Magic have failed to break the 98-point barrier in five of their last nine games. The Warriors just defeated the Rockets on the road on Friday night They played at Miami on Monday and at Charlotte on Wednesday. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the Warriors' stars were rested, or had their minutes greatly reduced here. |
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01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
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01-21-17 | Capitals v. Stars +123 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Maybe it's a leap of faith, but I like the Stars to starting turning their season around beginning with this matchup, the first of an important six-game homestand. The Capitals have regained their dominance having won 10 of their last 11 and are fresh off a road victory against the Blues two days ago. This is their third consecutive road game. They return home after this game to host Carolina on Monday. I don't see them taking this game as seriously as the Stars. The Stars still are looking for consistency. After upsetting the Rangers on the road by scoring seven goals, they lost their last game to the Islanders on the road Thursday. I see the Stars being pumped here. They should play the Capitals with a lot of confidence having won nine in a row versus Washington. The last time the Capitals won a regulation game in Dallas was 1995.
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01-21-17 | Northern Iowa +3 v. Southern Illinois | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. |
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01-21-17 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Maybe it was celebrating Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming the first Milwaukee All-Star starter in 31 years. Maybe it was because the Bucks are young. Maybe it was because Orlando was long overdue. Whatever the case, the Bucks were buried 112-96 by the Magic in Orlando Friday. That was a bad loss for the Bucks and their coach, Jason Kidd, let them know holding a closed locker room meeting for more than a half hour following that defeat. The Bucks hold a talent edge against the Heat and I expect Milwaukee to play much better today. The Bucks have won and covered in seven of their last nine games against Miami, including defeating the Heat, 116-108, eight days ago at home. Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker - who has scored 20 or more points six times in the last eight games - give Milwaukee two of the three best players on the court. The Bucks also have a frontcourt scoring advantage on the Heat despite Miami having Hassan Whiteside and a stronger bench courtesy of Greg Monroe and former Heat Michael Beasley. The Bucks have proven themselves on the road as since Christmas they have beaten the Pistons, Bulls, Knicks and Spurs away from Bradley Center. All of those teams are better than the Heat.
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01-21-17 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs will be missing injured Morgan Rielly, perhaps their best defensemen, for a second straight game. Toronto gave up five goals without him against the Rangers in their last game. Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen had problems in his other start against the Senators giving up five goals on 30 shots. He's not played well this month with an .888 save percentage allowing 26 goals in seven games. Ottawa has scored 19 goals in its last five games. The Maple Leafs are in the top-six in goals scored and top three in shots on goal and power play goals. They have scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 12 games. The over has cashed in seven of Toronto's last eight games.
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01-21-17 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 138 | 78-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination. |
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01-21-17 | Michigan State +5.5 v. Indiana | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013. |
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01-20-17 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | 112-107 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Not only does Utah have the No. 1 defense and Dallas the worst offense, but the spot highly favors the Jazz. Utah last played on Monday. The Mavericks played last night losing 99-95 to Miami on the road. Dallas is 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back games. This also marks Dallas' third game in four days. The Mavericks are ill equipped to handle this kind of load with a veteran, over-the-hill roster. The Jazz are playing at a high level having won four in a row. Not only do the Jazz have the stingiest defense in the league, but their offense has picked up. They are averaging 107.5 points during their winning streak helped by having George Hill back at point guard.
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01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
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01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them. Eastern Michigan is somewhat under the radar with an excellent big man, 6-foot-10 James Thompson. He's third in the MAC in rebounds and is second in field goal percentage. Eastern Michigan has the experience, height and good line value to get the cover here if not win outright. |
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01-19-17 | Lightning +125 v. Sharks | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Fighting for their playoff lives, the Lightning consider their current six-game road trip crucial. The Lightning have stepped up, too, both on defense and in goal with Ben Bishop back from a lower body injury and looking like his old self. Tampa Bay has permitted just seven goals during regulation in its last four games. Despite missing top defenseman Victory Hedman the past two games - and first two games of this trip - the Lightning nipped the Kings 2-1 and lost to the Ducks, 2-1, in overtime on Tuesday. The Lightning were idle on Wednesday, while San Jose skated to a tough 3-2 overtime victory against its rival the Kings. So the Lightning draw the Sharks without rest and with the possibility that Hedman may return for this game. Tampa Bay has revenge, too, for a 3-1 home loss to the Sharks on Nov. 12. That was the sixth straight time the road team has won in this series. |
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01-19-17 | Wolves v. Clippers -135 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games. LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots. |
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01-19-17 | Capitals v. Blues +115 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
The Blues are tough at home and 5-1 off a loss. The Capitals just had their nine-game win streak snapped in a wild 8-7 overtime loss to the Penguins on Monday. It's going to be hard for the Capitals to generate enthusiasm for this matchup. I see this as a flat spot for Washington. St. Louis has a strong history hosting Washington winning nine of the past 12 times at home. Jake Allen will be back in goal for the Blues and I'm expecting a big performance from him.
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01-19-17 | Davidson v. La Salle UNDER 155 | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The total opened too high here. LaSalle hasn't broken 69 points the past four times playing Davidson. There hasn't been more than 146 points scored during the past four meetings between the two schools. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
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01-18-17 | Bruins -134 v. Red Wings | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm not afraid to lay a road price with the Bruins here. Boston has the fourth-best road mark in the league at 13-8-4-1. Detroit has a losing home record. The Bruins let down in their last game and paid the price losing an embarrassing 4-0 home game to the Islanders on Monday. They should be ready here. Boston has defeated Detroit in eight of the last nine matchups. The Red Wings are off a 1-0 home victory against the Canadiens. I don't like Detroit's goaltending with Jimmy Howard. Prior to that win over Montreal, the Red Wings had given up 18 goals in their last four games. The Bruins have a huge edge in goal with Tukka Rask, who shut out Detroit 1-0 on the road in the team's last meeting in late October.
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01-18-17 | Missouri State v. Indiana State +1.5 | 73-68 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Big revenge spot here for Indiana State, which lost in overtime to Missouri State on New Year's Eve. This has been a home team series with the host going 6-1-1 ATS. Missouri State is playing on the road for the second time in four days. The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS when playing an opponent with an above .500 record at home. The Bears also have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've been favored.
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01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. |
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01-17-17 | Senators +135 v. Blues | 6-4 | Win | 135 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
If the season ended now, the Senators would be in the playoffs. They are a team worthy of respect with a strong recent history in St. Louis and are in a good situational spot here. The Blues are a bit fat and happy after posting road victories against the Ducks and Sharks this past Friday and Saturday. Now they're back home with a marquee home game looming against the Capitals on Thursday. This marks their fourth game in six days. St. Louis has a losing record in its past eight home contests. Ottawa last played on Saturday losing at home to Toronto despite getting 10 more shots on goal. The Senators are an above .500 road club and have won five of their last six at St. Louis, including the past three.
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01-17-17 | Rockets v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3. So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives. Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game. The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty. Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under. |
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01-16-17 | Green Bay +8.5 v. Valparaiso | 56-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I see value here with Green Bay, which is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 Horizon League games. Valparaiso is down from last season. The Crusaders' adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped 95 places, their 3-point shooting percentage is down five percent and their block percentage has dropped 253 places. The Crusaders lack depth and have backcourt issues with more turnovers than assists. They also have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games
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01-16-17 | Blazers v. Wizards -3.5 | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington is red-hot at home winning 11 in a row at Verizon Center while going 10-1 ATS in those games. Portland is not a good road club losing 15 of 22 away from home. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 against Eastern Conference foes and are going to be bothered by this early East Coast starting time. The Trail Blazers' strength is their backcourt, but the Wizards match that with John Wall and Bradley Beal.
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01-16-17 | Stars v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Dallas isn't the high-scoring team of a year ago. Jamie Benn is having a down season and the Stars rank just 17th in goals scored. The Sabres are a defensive-team. They rank 27th in goals scored. Their style is tight-checking with a methodical neutral zone approach. They like to force turnovers and dump-offs. The Stars dislike this approach preferring an up-and-down the ice style. Buffalo is effective at home in its way of doing things. The under is 14-6-6 in the Sabres' past 26 home contests. An early day time start here is a plus to the under, too. The Stars just beat the Wild in an exciting 5-4 game this past Saturday coming from four goals down. This game is going to have an opposite feel. Dallas has a bigger road game on deck tomorrow facing the Rangers. So it's a real flat spot for the Stars. The under has cashed four of the last five times, too, when the teams have met.
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01-15-17 | Thunder -120 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
The records show Oklahoma City to be 24-17 and Sacramento to be 16-23. The won-lost marks don't lie. The Thunder are a much superior team to the Kings. Oklahoma City isn't going to overlook, or let down, against the Kings either having lost to Sacramento the last time they met. Following this game, the Thunder are at the Clippers, Warriors and Jazz. The Thunder just lost to the Timberwolves on Friday playing one of their worst games. So this matchup is of great importance to Oklahoma City. As usual, Sacramento isn't playing well. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games and 1-4 in their last five home games. The excitement of playing in their new state-of-the-art arena has worn off. Matchup-wise a big key is rebounding. The Thunder have the third-best rebounding margin in the NBA while the Kings rank 23rd. The Thunder can dominated the boards, which in turns ignites their dangerous fast break headed by Russell Westbrook.
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01-15-17 | USC v. Colorado -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans.
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
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01-15-17 | Wild v. Blackhawks -124 | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Blackhawks minus $1.25 hosting Wild Chicago won four in a row at home before suffering an embarrassing 6-0 road loss to red-hot Washington on Friday. Now the Blackhawks are back home where they have won 17 of 25 times this season. The price has come down enough to get involved here with Chicago as the spot highly favors the Blackhawks. Minnesota is playing extremely well. But this is the Wild's third game in four days and second in two days. They just nipped the Stars, 5-4, in Dallas on Saturday to replace the Blackhawks as Central Division leaders. Not only do the Blackhawks want to reclaim the top spot, but have revenge for last season when the Wild swept all five games. Prior to last season, though, the Blackhawks had beaten the Wild seven of the past eight times at home. |
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01-15-17 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
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01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale. |