Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-22 | Radford v. High Point -111 | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade Radford. The Highlanders have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. They are averaging just 58.6 points in regulation during their last three games. High Point averages five more points per game on the season than Radford. The Panthers have won and covered their past three home games. This includes an upset win against Winthrop during their last game. The spread certainly is low enough to back the better team at home. |
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01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers -3.5 | 68-60 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rutgers is very tough at home as evidenced by a 10-1 record. The Scarlet Knights haven't been nearly as good on the road at 1-6. However, that lone victory occurred against Maryland, 70-59, 10 days ago. Now the Scarlet Knights host Maryland drawing the Terrapins fat and happy after they upset 17th-ranked Illinois four days ago. The Illini, though, were short-handed minus superstar big man Kofi Cockburn. Maryland is 5-16 ATS the last 21 times following a point spread cover. Rutgers should be fired up after losing, 68-65, to Minnesota on the road three days ago. The Gophers shot 54.2 percent from the field. Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell ripped his team following that loss as the Gophers were missing three of their top four scorers. So I'm expecting an all-out effort from Rutgers. |
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01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
After facing the Knicks, 76ers and Nuggets - all top 11 defenses - the Clippers step way down in defensive class. Washington ranks 20th defensively giving up nearly 110 points per game. Washington has permitted 115 or more points in three of its last five games. The Wizards are due to break out of their cold streak after averaging just 96 points in their last two games versus the Raptors and Celtics. The Wizards had averaged 115.8 points during their previous five games. They have scored at least 110 points in 11 of their last 14 games. The Wizards are healthy and full of sharp shooters headed by Bradley Beal. The Over has cashed four of the past five times the Wizards have hosted the Clippers. |
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01-24-22 | Texas Tech +7 v. Kansas | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Never mind Kansas revenge. The Jayhawks are laying too many points against a tough Texas Tech team after enduring a very hard struggle against in-state rival Kansas State just two days ago. The Jayhawks came from 17 points down in the second half to nip the Wildcats, 78-75. Texas Tech is 15-4 and now has a healthy Terrence Shannon, its leading scorer. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. Kansas has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been favored. |
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01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans has been strong at home winning and covering seven of its last nine. The Pelicans catch a schedule break here hosting a short-handed and tired Indiana squad that is concluding a five-game road trip. The Pacers are playing for the fifth time in eight days. They are minus their two best players with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolmb Brogdon both out. They've been without Caris LeVert, maybe their third-best player, too. He's questionable. Those are Indiana's top three scorers. The Pelicans have held five of their last seven opponents to 105 points or fewer. New Orleans enters this home matchup on a winning note beating the Knicks, 102-91, this past Thursday in New York. That was a big confidence builder for the Pelicans after they were blown out during the first two games of their road trip by the Nets and Celtics. Even if Ingram is out, I still like the Pelicans. |
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01-23-22 | Lakers v. Heat -130 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
I find this spread too short. The Heat will be up for this matchup with the return of LeBron James to Miami. The Heat also are off a Friday road loss to the Hawks. Miami has been much better at home. The Heat have won nine of their last 10 home games. They have Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, their two best players, healthy again. The Lakers are playing for the fourth time in seven days. Anthony Davis remains out. LA defeated the pathetic Magic in its last game two days ago to open its road trip. Prior to that, though, the Lakers lost at home to the Pacers. Before beating the Magic, the Lakers had lost their last two road games by a combined 46 points to the Nuggets and Kings. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -114 | 66 h 1 m | Show |
Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night? I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion. Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games. The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents. Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble. The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul. |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2.5 | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Xavier is playing well. But Marquette is playing great, is home and has revenge. So I'm going to grab the Golden Eagles as a home 'dog. Marquette has won five in a row - and they haven't come against cupcakes with three of the victories occurring versus ranked opponents. The Golden Eagles are outscoring their foes by an average of 15 points during this span. The Golden Eagles have revenge for an 80-71 road loss to Xavier last month. |
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01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The Pacers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo. They certainly aren't going to look to play fast against the Suns, a top-five defensive unit, playing their fourth road game in six days. The Under is 14-5 in the Pacers' last 19 road games. Indiana is in a major letdown spot, too, after stunning the Warriors on Thursday with a 121-117 overtime victory. The Pacers accomplished that win minus perhaps their best player, Domantas Sabonis, and their starting backcourt of Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert. Those are their three leading scores. Combined they account for 52 percent of the Pacers' scoring. Sabonis is out while Brogdon and LeVert are questionable. The Pacers' bench stepped up in a big way against the Warriors two days ago. I don't see Indiana's reserves reaching that caliber again. The Suns rank fifth in scoring defense and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They can clamp down on long-range shooters Chris Duarte and Justin Holiday. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times the Suns have hosted the Pacers. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
This is one of the Packers' strongest offenses ever thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who during his last 6 1/2 games threw for 1,929 yards with a 20-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers has a deep wide receiving corps headed by Davante Adams, a top three overall wide receiver, and one of the best running back combos in the league, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Cold weather isn't going to derail this attack especially when wind won't be a major factor. The 49ers don't have the backend up to hang with all of Rogers' targets. Green Bay could have nearly its entire starting offensive line intact, too, for the first time this season. San Francisco is hoping to have back its best two defenders, pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Both were injured against the Cowboys last week. It's just an added bonus for Green Bay if either of those players is out. The cold elements shouldn't bother the 49ers either because their attack is predicated on running and Jimmy Garoppolo playing point guard distributing short passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are outstanding at gaining yards after the catch. Samuel has the most unique skill set in the NFL with his pass catching skills, rushing talents and even the ability to pass. The Packers could get back cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Za'Darius Smith. Even if those two return, they aren't likely to play the entire game and their talents are more suited to defend against the pass rather than the run. The physical 49ers should control the trenches when running. Green Bay's defense slipped noticeably as the season wore on. If you throw out holding the Vikings to just 10 points when Sean Mannion was Minnesota's QB, the Packers have surrendered an average of 30.1 points during their last six games. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show | |
Nice season for the Bengals. But it ends in Nashville. The Titans have the right style, playoff experience and improved defense to beat the Bengals by more than a field goal. Cincinnati ended up in a death struggle to get past the Raiders at home last week finishing that game down three defensive linemen. The Bengals definitely won't have defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. These current Bengals have never played in a postseason road game. Tennessee, 7-2 at home this season, is playoff-tested and rested having had a first-round bye. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU and ATS following a bye beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points per game. The extra time should allow Derrick Henry to make his return from a foot injury. Cincinnati has permitted 100 yards rushing in five of its past six games. The Titans averaged 29.1 points a game during Henry's last seven games before he was injured. Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB when defenses have to key on Henry. The Titans' bruising, ball-control style keeps Joe Burrow off the field. But it's not just that. The Titans were one of the most improved defenses during the last 11 games giving up 17.5 points and 300.3 yards per game during this stretch. They have a number of underrated pass rushers and athletic linebackers. I doubt the Bengals' youthful offensive line will hold up at the line of scrimmage to the detriment of Burrow. |
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01-22-22 | Notre Dame v. Louisville -1.5 | 82-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
Louisville has been anything but reliable, but I believe the Cardinals win this game. They got on the right path with a 67-54 home win against Boston College this past Wednesday that ended a three-game losing streak. Notre Dame is playing well going 7-1 in its last eight games, but the Irish have struggled against Louisville. The Cardinals have defeated the Irish six straight times, including 69-57, last February. Notre Dame has lost during its last four visits to Louisville. Notre Dame is heavily reliant on its long-range shooting. It's going to be tough for the Irish to get hot on the road dealing with the Cardinals' end line-to-end line pressure and tough home crowd. The Cardinals have the depth to fully pressure Notre Dame the entire game and take advantage of the Irish's inside weaknesses. |
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01-22-22 | Rutgers v. Minnesota UNDER 130 | 65-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Rutgers struggles to score, but plays outstanding defense. The Scarlet Knights give up fewer than 64 points per game. They held Iowa to just 46 points in their previous game. Minnesota is playing on a short rotation because of injuries and illness. They were down their fourth and fifth-leading scorers in their last game. The Gophers play at a natural slow pace, which figures to be even a slower tempo given their many injuries.
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01-22-22 | West Virginia +9.5 v. Texas Tech | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Texas Tech is in a sandwich spot having just scored an impressive revenge victory against Iowa State this past Tuesday and with a monster road game at Kansas looming on Monday. It would be a mistake for the Red Raiders to overlook West Virginia. The Mountaineers fell to fifth-ranked Baylor this past Tuesday, 77-68. The Mountaineers had their chances, though, missing multiple layups. Baylor also hit 12 of 27 3-pointers. West Virginia forces the 11th-most turnovers in the country. Texas Tech is vulnerable to that. The Mountaineers also are 4-1 in their last five games against Texas Tech, including winning, 82-71, last February in Lubbock. West Virginia accomplished that without Taz Sherman, who was out with a groin injury. Sherman leads the Mountaineers in scoring at 18.8 points, but is just rounding into shape after dealing with a bout of COVID-19. |
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01-21-22 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 86-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago. Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak. The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600. Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th. I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus. |
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01-21-22 | Bulls +11 v. Bucks | 90-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
I've followed this series ever since the Bucks came into existence and Milwaukee always has a tough time when hosting the Bulls. Chicago has covered in six of its last eight visits to Milwaukee. I'm looking for the Bulls to continue that trend even though they are banged-up minus guards Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine. The much improved Bulls, though, still have stars in DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with a deep bench. They recently got back guard Alex Caruso, too. The Bulls weren't playing well losing four in a row. But they got right with an impressive, 117-104, win against Cleveland this past Wednesday. The Bucks are off a highly-satisfying, 126-114, victory against the Grizzlies two days ago. Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS the past six times when favored.
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01-21-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Hornets | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City is 25-10-1 (71 percent) the last 36 times as an underdog. This is a good spot for the Thunder to get another underdog cover. Charlotte is fat and happy having just defeated the Celtics, 111-102, at Boston two days ago. The Hornets have beaten the Celtics, Knicks, 76ers and Bucks twice during five of their last six games. Their lone loss during this span came to lowly Orlando at home. The Hornets could be overlooking the Thunder, too, as Oklahoma City has dropped three in a row. The Thunder should be motivated, though, after losing by an embarrassing 22 points on the road to the Spurs this past Wednesday.
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01-20-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 217.5 | Top | 121-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are getting more in sync with each other. That's bad news for the rest of the NBA and should be a boost for Golden State's offense. Thompson had his best shooting and scoring game in the Warriors' last matchup two days ago against the Pistons since returning five games ago. The Warriors should be able to connect frequently from 3-point range against a weak Pacers perimeter defense. Indiana also is without rim protector Myles Turner, out with a foot injury. Turner has been the premier shot blocker in the league the past couple of seasons. Turner's absence is a plus for the Over. So is the absence of Draymond Green, a tough defender and rebounder. Golden State ranks No. 1 defensively, but has missed Green. The Warriors held the punchless Pistons to 86 points in their last game, but previous to that had surrendered 116, 118 and 119 points in three of their last four games. The Pacers beat the Lakers, 111-104, last night. The Warriors like to play up-tempo. They don't figure to deviate from that style, catching Indiana without rest. |
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01-20-22 | San Diego +15.5 v. BYU | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a good spot for San Diego to hang close to BYU. The Toreros have won three in a row and are 6-2 in their last eight games. They have hopes to make a run for an NCAA Tournament berth. So they should be giving an all-out effort here. BYU, on the other hand, is in letdown mode having just faced the three top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Francisco. The Toreros have the necessary 3-point defense to keep BYU from blowing them out. San Diego ranks 21st in 3-point defense. |
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01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The oddsmaker is downgrading the Knicks because they've lost two straight home games, sleepwalking through a loss to the Hornets during an early start on Martin Luther King Day and then blowing a late lead in a 112-110 loss to the much improved Timberwolves on Tuesday. Prior to those defeats, though, New York had won five consecutive games at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout wins against the Mavericks and Spurs. The Pelicans are a drop in class for New York. The Knicks are a much stronger defensive club than New Orleans giving up six fewer points per game. New Orleans is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road contests. The Pelicans are averaging under 100 points during their last three games. |
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01-19-22 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M UNDER 144.5 | Top | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
You can look at this SEC battle two ways: The first way is that Kentucky is the sixth-highest scoring team in the country after burying Tennessee, 107-79, this past Saturday at home. The Wildcats shot a season-best 67.9 percent from the floor and made 20 of 21 free throws. Then there's the second way you can approach this game, which is to realize Texas A&M gives up 62.9 points a game, which ranks 40th in the country. Kentucky also ranks in the top 50 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Wildcats have held 14 of their last 16 foes to 69 or fewer points. I'm going with the second way especially with this game at Texas A&M. The Aggies have won eight in a row. They held their last two opponents - Mississippi and Missouri - to a combined average of 57.5 points. I find this total inflated due to the Wildcats putting up 107 points on the Volunteers. |
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01-19-22 | Nets +1.5 v. Wizards | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Washington is home and the Nets won't have Kevin Durant. But I'm not buying the Wizards as a home favorite - as slight as the point spread is - to beat the Nets. This is the Nets' second game without Durant. They lost, 114-107, to the Cavaliers two days ago in Durant's first missed game since his knee injury. Brooklyn still has superstars James Harden and Kyrie Irving. The Nets have had a game now to adjust to temporary life without Durant. Brooklyn is 15-5 on the road this season. The Nets are 4-1 ATS the last five times as an underdog. Washington is 0-5 ATS the past five times when favored. The Wizards defeated the 76ers, 117-98, this past Monday. So there may be a Wizards' letdown factor following that impressive win and knowing they won't have to go against Durant.
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01-19-22 | Wake Forest -2.5 v. Georgia Tech | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Can we just say it: Georgia Tech isn't very good this season. The Yellow Jackets have a losing record and are 1-5 in the ACC. They just were blown out by North Carolina on the road this past Saturday. Being at home isn't going to change this. The Yellow Jackets are 1-7-1 ATS at home. Wake Forest has taken care of business all season. The Demon Deacons' defense has been sharp in their last four games, holding Virginia to 55 points and Florida State to 54 points during this span. |
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01-18-22 | Utah State v. Fresno State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 54-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Utah State has gone Under in four of its last five games. Now the Aggies take on Fresno State, which gives up the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 56.6. The Bulldogs also rank 39th in defensive field goal percentage. The Aggies remain without Brock Miller, their fourth-leading scorer. Fresno State, though, ranks 286th in scoring. Utah State is a strong defensive rebounding team and a top-100 team in defensive efficiency. The tempo should be slow here. The Under has cashed in six of Fresno State's last eight home contests. |
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01-18-22 | Pistons +15.5 v. Warriors | 86-102 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Golden State can't be laying this many points considering its injury situation and current form. This also is a bad spot for the Warriors, returning home after a four-game road trip. This is Golden State's fifth game in eight days. The Warriors are 2-5 in their last seven games. This is their worst stretch by far. They are off a 20-point loss to the Timberwolves this past Sunday. Golden State is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day's rest. Draymond Green is out. Stephen Curry is questionable with a sore hand. Klay Thompson is back, but he remains very rusty shooting 35.7 percent from the field in four games since returning. Detroit had been playing well, especially star rookie Cade Cunningham, winning three of four until getting blown out at home to the Suns this past Sunday. Cunningham was having a great game, but was thrown out 25 minutes into the game for technical fouls. It was a humbling experience for the youthful Pistons. They should learn from that and be prepared to give the Warriors a tough battle here. |
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01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I don't think the Knicks should be a home 'dog to the Timberwolves. New York couldn't get awake for yesterday's early-start Martin Luther King home game against the Hornets losing by 10 points after trailing by as many as 23 points. Look for the Knicks to be more awake for this game after Monday's embarrassment. Prior to that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks had won five straight at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout victories against the Mavericks and Spurs. The Timberwolves are looking good to the oddsmaker right now because they just rolled past the short-handed Warriors, 119-99, at home this past Sunday night. Keep in mind, though, that before that victory Minnesota had lost and failed to cover consecutive road games against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. |
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01-17-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State +6.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rebels under first-year head coach Kevin Kruger aren't strong enough to lay this mid-range number on the road against a San Jose State that is better than perceived. The Spartans are much improved at 7-7 than they were last season when they went 5-16, including 2-12 in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels are a middle-of-the-road Mountain West Conference team hoping to get an NIT berth. San Jose State is 8-5 ATS in its lined games. The Spartans have played their best ball at home going 5-2 ATS. The Rebels are an unimpressive 5-10 ATS. They have been inconsistent all season and are 0-2 SU and ATS in their two true road games losing to SMU and San Francisco by an average of 20 points. This is UNLV's first away game since Dec. 4. |
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01-17-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Mavs | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Dallas is 8-1 in its last nine games after a 108-92 home win against Orlando. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis were both in Dallas' lineup for the first time since Dec. 10. Now the Mavericks draw the Thunder, a bottom feeder that is 1-6 in their last seven games and 0-2 versus Dallas this season with both losses coming in Oklahoma City. Safe to say the Mavericks are in a fat and happy state. They host the Raptors in a bigger game on Wednesday. Oklahoma City, though, is very dangerous in this role going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times as an underdog, including covering seven of their last nine road contests. The key for the Thunder is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He's been on fire averaging 28.7 points, eight assists and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 52.5 percent from the field during his past three games. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 46 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 43 h 54 m | Show | |
The Chiefs' explosive offense is back on track averaging 35.4 points during their last five games. This includes producing 36 points against the Steelers in Week 16. The Chiefs scored on each of their first four possessions, piling up 381 total yards of offense. Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and 3 TD's despite not having Travis Kelce. Pittsburgh has surrendered at least 36 points in four of its last five road games. Safe to say, the Chiefs are going to get their share of points here. But what about the Steelers? Can Pittsburgh contribute its share of points? I believe the Steelers can. The Chiefs' run defense has become leaky giving up an average of 143.2 yards rushing in their last four games. If Najee Harris is effective on the ground, the Steelers' passing attack can be effective off play-action. If the Chiefs load up to stop the run by committing their safeties, Ben Roethlisberger will attack their man coverage. Roethlisberger won't be shy about passing in what likely is his final game. |
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01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah has lost four in a row. Denver is off a 133-96 beatdown of the Lakers last night. So are you surprised the Jazz are such a strong road favorite? Don't be. The oddsmaker knows what he's doing. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Jazz and they have star center Rudy Gobert to help them achieve this. Utah hasn't played in four days. Gobert is as valuable to his team as any player. The Jazz didn't have Gobert, who was in COVID-19 protocol, during their current four-game losing streak. Gobert is back. The Jazz are rested, prepared and anxiously pointing to this game. They catch the Nuggets fat and happy after Denver buried the Lakers, 133-96, last night. |
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01-16-22 | Rockets v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
These just met two days ago in Sacramento and the Kings won, 126-114, shooting 50 percent from the floor. Neither team is good defensively. That's fully acknowledged. But familiarity should help the defensive effort today. The Rockets know they have to improve their pick-and-roll defense against the Kings. It's something they are well aware of. The Kings had held their previous three opponents to 109.3 points before giving up 114 to the Rockets on Friday. Another plus for the Under is the Rockets will have rookie center Alperen Sengun back. He's a high-energy, defensive-minded big man. |
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01-16-22 | Canisius v. Manhattan -4 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
It's a limited Sunday slate of college basketball games. But there is one play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference that merits an investment. Manhattan is better on both sides of the ball against Canisius. The Golden Griffins could be the worst team in the MAAC. They are 5-10 overall and have lost seven straight road games. The Golden Griffins are 0-7 away from home this season with an average loss of 12.2 points. The closest they've come on the road is seven points. The Jaspers are 8-4. They have the better offensive and defensive statistics. I look for them to cover a number that I believe opened too short. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs -8.5 | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 110 h 19 m | Show |
I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes. The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury. Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower. The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line. The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
It's easy to remember the Raiders' last game. That being a memorable, 35-32, home overtime victory against the Chargers on national TV this past Sunday night. Those combined 67 points and Joe Burrow's hot hand may have influenced this opening total, which I find too high given the matchup and expected weather conditions. The forecast is for temperatures to be in the 20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Las Vegas hasn't played in under 44 degree weather all season. Burrow was sizzling in Weeks 16 and 17 combining to pass for nearly 1,000 yards with eight TD's. Burrow, though, may have lost some of his hot hand after being rested this past Sunday. The Raiders are a respectable 13th in pass defense. Las Vegas had allowed 15.6 points in its past three games prior to meeting the Chargers. Cincinnati's defense was much improved this season especially against the run, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Bengals held the Raiders to 13 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in their, 32-13, victory in Week 11. Before scoring 35 points on the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged only 14 points during their last five games. Derek Carr needs Josh Jacobs to keep him out of obvious passing situations. I don't see Jacobs doing much, though, against Cincinnati's strong rush defense. Prop Bet When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the top-five tight ends in football. Waller missed Weeks 13-17, but returned last week against the Chargers. Waller was rusty. He caught only two passes for 22 yards against the Chargers. But he played on 78 percent of the Raiders' offensive snaps and was targeted nine times. Waller should be much better this week. Derek Carr always has looked for Waller. Carr will look often in Waller's direction in this matchup as the Bengals gave up the fifth-most yards to tight ends. Cincinnati doesn't have the athletic linebackers who can stay with talented, fast tight ends such as Waller. Waller had a big game when the Raiders played the Bengals in Week 11 catching seven passes for 116 yards. So I'm going Over 4 1/2 receptions (Caesars Palace) and Over 56 1/2 receiving yards (Circa) on Waller today. |
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01-15-22 | Arkansas +7 v. LSU | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Arkansas' explosive attack, which averages 80.5 points a game, faces a very strong defense here. But I see the Razorbacks hanging in. The Razorbacks have cut down on their turnovers, which is crucial in this matchup. LSU's intensity could be down after victories against Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida during the last 11 days. The Tigers aren't likely to have starting point guard Xavier Pinson. He's doubtful with a knee injury.
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01-15-22 | NC-Greensboro v. Mercer UNDER 132 | 49-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Greensboro is strong not only in defensive field goal percentage, but rebounding. That's going to hurt Mercer, which is a perimeter shooting team. Greensboro only averages 64.1 points, which ranks 318th. The tempo is going to be very slow here, too. Both teams like to play at a slow pace. Given these ingredients, look for an Under.
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01-14-22 | Fresno State -112 v. UNLV | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
This one comes down to defense. Fresno State gives up 10 fewer points per game than UNLV. The Bulldogs ranks fourth in the in nation defensively holding foes to 55.9 points. The Bulldogs have been playing well covering seven of their last nine. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering the past six times. Fresno State also has defeated UNLV in seven of the past 10 meetings.
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01-14-22 | Cavs v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The timing is right to buy low on the Spurs in this home spot. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mode saddled with a four-game losing streak. The Spurs are off a 128-124 loss to the Rockets two days ago, which opened their seven-game homestand. Dejounte Murray could be the most underrated player in the NBA. The Spurs certainly are capable of winning this game straight-up. There's the chance their rotation could be bolstered if Derrick White and Doug McDermott return today from COVID-19 protocol. The Cavaliers are much improved. But they are far from elite. Their 111-91 victory against Utah on Wednesday comes with an asterisk as the Jazz were missing several players, including their star center and key to their team, Rudy Gobert. This marks Cleveland's fifth road game in eight days. The Cavaliers close their road trip tomorrow at Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers had opened their road swing beating shorthanded Portland. They then lost by 14 to the Warriors, nipped the lowly Kings by one point before knocking off Utah. Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games, 2-6-1 ATS. |
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01-13-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nets | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City lost on the road to the Wizards, 122-118, two days ago. But the Thunder enjoyed their finest offensive game of the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke out of his shooting slump with 32 points. The underrated Gilgeous-Alexander can make the Thunder a dangerous road foe if he's on his game. Oklahoma City has covered 23 of its last 32 road games. Brooklyn returned home in the wee hours Thursday morning after a highly-satisfying late Wednesday victory on the road against the Bulls, 138-112. Kyrie Irving won't play today. Kevin Durant might get rested, too, although I still like the Thunder in this spot figuring Durant is going to play. The Nets haven't won two in a row in nearly a month. Brooklyn also has been very mediocre at home going 11-10. The Nets are 1-5 in their last six home contests with the lone victory during this span occurring in overtime to the Spurs. Going back to last season, the Nets are 4-17 ATS as a home favorite. |
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01-13-22 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
As the Big Ten season winds into mid-January defenses start getting more intense. Teams make that extra pass. Play slows down. That's the vision I have in this marquee Big Ten battle between 13th-ranked Wisconsin and 16th-ranked Ohio State. I don't see either team reaching 70 points. Therefore I believe this total has been set too high. Ohio State beat the Badgers, 73-55, at home on Dec. 11. That game fell six points below the closing total of 134. Since then, Wisconsin has put together its best basketball winning five in a row. The Badgers have momentum and revenge. That's a tough combination. Wisconsin won't have a minus 21 rebounding line against the Buckeyes this time around either. Ohio State managed only 51 points against Indiana in its last road game a week ago. But Wisconsin's offense can't be trusted. Aside from Johnny Davis, the Badgers don't have many reliable scorers. The Badgers have major offensive inconsistencies. They are at their best scoring inside. Ohio State, though, protects the rim well. The Buckeyes average 5.2 blocks. The Badgers are a terrible 3-point shooting team ranking 322nd making fewer than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. Discounting their last game against Northwestern, the Buckeyes have held their last four Big Ten opponents to an average of 64.5 points. |
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01-12-22 | Nets v. Bulls -121 | 138-112 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Bulls are healthy. That makes them dangerous. Chicago has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Bulls have covered five of their last six home games. The price is cheap enough to back the Bulls at home against the Nets, who are playing for the fourth time in six days and just flew in from Portland yesterday. Brooklyn has failed to cover in its last seven games going 2-5 SU during this span with one of the victories coming at home in overtime against the Spurs. The Nets aren't nearly as healthy as the Bulls. James Harden and Kyrie Irving are both questionable. So is Nic Claxton. LaMarcus Aldridge is out. |
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01-12-22 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 132.5 | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech is in stop-the-pain mode losers of seven of its last eight games. Scoring has been a problem for the Yellow Jackets, but their defense has been solid. Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 65.5 points in their last six games. No opponent has reached 70 points against the Yellow Jackets during this span. Boston College is a slow-paced, defensive-minded team under new coach Earl Grant. The Eagles have to win with defense, too, as they rank 288th in scoring and 267th in field goal shooting. |
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01-12-22 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 210.5 | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
The teams just met two days ago and the Celtics won a defensive battle, 101-98, in overtime. Indiana shot 38 percent from the field. The Pacers missed a lot of easy shots. Celtics defensive ace Marcus Smart played 23 minutes in that game. Smart is questionable for this matchup. The Celtics know they have to step up on the offensive end. Boston had played the defensive-minded Knicks in back-to-back games prior to meeting Indiana. The Pacers are a much worse defensive team than the Knicks. |
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01-11-22 | Oklahoma State +3 v. West Virginia | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
I was impressed with Oklahoma State beating then ranked No. 14 Texas, 64-51, against Texas this past Saturday. I don't see a letdown. Instead I'm going to ride the Cowboys, who have momentum and are playing well now. Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS the past 12 times it has been a road 'dog. West Virginia came back from a 40-27 halftime deficit to defeat Kansas State, 71-68, at home this past Saturday failing to cover as 8 1/2-point favorites. The Mountaineers had lost to Texas, 74-59, in their previous game. |
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01-11-22 | DePaul +7 v. Marquette | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate. On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that. Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6. So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation. The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards. Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This total has gone up four points from when the teams met in last month's SEC title game. That's because Alabama blasted Georgia, 41-24, in that matchup. I don't see that happening again now that Georgia has a better read on Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, Brian Robinson and the rest of Alabama's high-powered attack. Until that loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs hadn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season, holding eight foes to seven or fewer points. Georgia has the best defense in the country and that's not up for debate. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense, second in defensive total yards, No. 3 in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards. The Under is 8-2-2 in Georgia's last 12 neutral site games. Alabama, naturally, has defensive studs, too. The Crimson Tide also is facing a lesser QB in Stetson Bennett. |
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01-10-22 | Spurs v. Knicks UNDER 212.5 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been struggling on the road averaging 104.3 points during their last six away contests. Now they face a tough Knicks defense that ranks sixth in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 14-6-2 during the Spurs' last 22 road matchups. New York, however, ranks 27th in scoring. The Knicks are averaging only 95.3 points during their last eight games. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the Knicks have hosted the Spurs.
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01-10-22 | Bucks -128 v. Hornets | 99-103 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
The Hornets caught the Bucks at the right time when the teams met this past Saturday. The Bucks had just knocked off the Nets the night before and were in a flat spot. The result was a 114-106 Charlotte win. Oh, yes, the normally strong Bucks bench produced just five points. I don't see that happening again. So give me the vastly superior team in a rapid revenge spot. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season. The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup. Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return. |
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01-09-22 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 39.5 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
I understand that both of these offenses have regressed very much. But this total is too low especially with this game being played on a fast track inside a dome. The Saints may get both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramzcyk, back. That would be a huge plus as Armstead and Ramzcyk are well above average. I consider dual threat Taysom Hill a major upgrade on Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara is an elite all-purpose back. Hill will be operating against an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 26th in run defense and 24th in total defense. Matt Ryan has endured a down season. But he's not devoid of weapons with Cordarrelle Patterson, who has put together a Kamara-type all-purpose season with 1,154 yards from scrimmage, and star tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be trying to break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight end receiving yardage. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
I find this line inflated because the Dolphins are out of playoff contention and the Patriots are off a 40-point victory against the Jaguars and are alive to win the AFC East. The Dolphins, though, aren't going to roll over with a chance to finish above .500, beat their long-time division rival and have a number of players reach performance bonus incentives. The Patriots won't win the division with a victory here if the Bills beat the Jets. The Patriots know the Bills aren't losing to the Jets. Until giving up 34 points to the Titans last week on a short week and in a flat spot, Miam had held its previous seven opponents to an average of 11.7 points. Even in the loss to the Titans, the Dolphins held them to 308 total yards. The Patriots don't have an explosive offense when going against a good defense. Bill Belichick doesn't have a good track record either when playing in Miami during December and January going 2-7 SU and ATS the past nine times. Playing in high 70-degree heat in January is not what the Patriots are used to. |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
This one is about mindset and numbers. The Cardinals are alive for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. All it would take is for them to win here and for the Rams to lose to the 49ers for the sixth time in a row. Arizona ranks in the top 11 in nearly all of the major statistical categories, including giving up the fifth-fewest points and being ranked eighth in total offense. Seattle won't be making the postseason for only the second time in the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have below average offensive numbers and rank 30th in total defense and 31st in pass defense. And this was padding their statistics with a 51-29 victory against the Lions last week. The Seahawks could enter this matchup, which for them is meaningless, fat and happy following that victory lacking a killer instinct. Seattle isn't likely to have its best defensive player, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. He suffered a knee sprain last week. The Cardinals have played three tough opponents during their last four games having drawn the Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Seattle, on the other hand, got to go against the Texans, Bears and Lions during three of its past four matchups. Arizona defeated the Seahawks, 23-13, at Seattle in Week 11 outgaining the Seahawks by 147 yards. |
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01-09-22 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals will be sitting out certain starters, including Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. But the Browns also will be minus many players with 15 players landing on their mid-week injury report. Cincinnati is the hotter team with three straight wins. Morale is great with the Bengals, who have won the AFC North. Chemistry isn't so good with the Browns, who have lost three in a row and eight of their last 12. Only twice in their past seven games have the Browns broken 20 points. There is some randomness to this game with both teams starting backup QB's. The Bengals are the superior team, though, and they revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 41-16, loss to the Browns in November. So I'll go ahead and accept this many points.
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 123-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Kudos to the Heat for beating the Trail Blazers, 115-109, this past Wednesday in their last game. However, I don't see the Heat keeping up with the Suns today. This is Miami's fifth of a six-game road trip and the team has 12 players on its illness/injury report list, including Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile the Suns are expected to get reinforced with Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee. All are off the COVID-19 list. Ayton is the Suns' leading rebounder and No. 2 scorer. The Suns own the best record in the NBA at 30-8. They are playing well with three straight wins and covers, winning by an average of 22 points during this span. The Suns shouldn't lack intensity since they won't play again until Tuesday and won't be home again until Jan. 22. |
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01-08-22 | Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State | Top | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso. The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense. Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven. The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal. |
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01-08-22 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Rutgers | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Nebraska is far from being a Big Ten power, but the Cornhuskers have been hanging in against elite Big Ten opponents. The Cornhuskers took Ohio State to overtime and they also covered against Michigan State this past Wednesday. Now the Cornhuskers drop down in class to face Rutgers - and they catch the Scarlet Knights in a letdown spot. Rutgers is coming off a 75-67 home win against Michigan. It was the first time the Scarlet Knights have defeated the Wolverines. Nebraska had no problem with Rutgers last season winning, 72-51. |
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01-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Texas is 11-2, but the Longhorns have been fortunate to face Big 12 opponents that have been dealing with COVID-19 problems. Oklahoma State is battle tested having just played Kansas and Houston. The Cowboys have the size, right tempo and talent to spring the upset. This has been an underdog series lately, too, with the 'dog covering four the last five times. |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday. The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series. Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country. This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread. |
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01-07-22 | Mavs -130 v. Rockets | 130-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Luka Doncic nor Kristaps Porzingis to play. It's an added bonus if Doncic were to suit up after injuring his ankle this past Wednesday in Dallas' 99-82 win against the Warriors. It doesn't matter to me. I'll take the Mavericks against the Rockets in this price range. Dallas has won four in a row. The Mavericks have held their last five foes to an average of 89.6 points. The Mavericks rank third in the NBA defensively. The Rockets are 29th defensively surrendering an average of 12 more points per game than Dallas. The Rockets are fat and happy after upsetting the Wizards as a 7-point road 'dog two days ago. Before that game, the Rockets had lost and failed to cover eight in a row with all of the losses coming by double-digits. The Mavs just played their best defensive game of the year in beating Golden State. I don't see them just giving it back by losing to the lowly Rockets.
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01-07-22 | Jazz v. Raptors -11 | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The Jazz have won 10 straight road victories and own the second-best record in the NBA at 28-10. Yet the Jazz find themselves double-digit road underdogs to the Raptors. Huh? What gives? Hint: It's not just because the Raptors have won four in a row and are back to full strength. The Jazz are decimated heading into this game. Among those out for Utah are Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Joe Ingles. The Jazz could be missing others. Injuries and COVID. Welcome to NBA 2022. The Raptors should take this game seriously, too, playing with revenge for a November loss to Utah and being off the next day.
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup. The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits. Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape. Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID. |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers OVER 216 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Miami ranks fourth defensively in the NBA. The Heat have been a strong defensive team for years. That's not the case right now, though, with the Heat missing injured players Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Dewayne Dedmon and Markieff Morris. Miami has lost its hard-nosed, defensive intensity without these key players, especially Butler. Miami is giving up an average of 113 points during its last four games. The Trail Blazers have scorers to take advantage with Damian Lillard, underrated Norman Powell and emerging Anfernee Simons. Portland is an above average scoring team, but is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Trail Blazers rank 27th in points allowed, 29th in defensive field goal percentage and 30th in defensive field goal percentage. The Trail Blazers are in especially bad defensive form surrendering an average of 130.5 points during their last four games. Miami is averaging 115 points in its last four games. |
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01-05-22 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Miami-FL | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
I believe Miami is overrated having played a weak schedule. I'm willing to test that theory by backing Syracuse, which is off a bad 74-69 home loss to Virginia this past Saturday. Orange coach Jim Boeheim ripped his team following that defeat. I see Syracuse responding to Boeheim's critical comments with a strong effort here. Miami is 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times as a favorite. The Hurricanes have fared poorly through the years when dealing against the Orange's vaunted 2-3 zone defense failing to exceed 70 points during the last 10 meetings.
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01-05-22 | Nebraska +15.5 v. Michigan State | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Michigan State has won seven in a row. The Spartans could be looking past 6-8 Nebraska since they play arch-rival Michigan on Saturday. The Cornhuskers took then No. 13 ranked Ohio State into overtime before losing in their last game this past Sunday. Nebraska has the athleticism to bother the Spartans with their pressing defense. The Cornhuskers displayed this against the Buckeyes. The Spartans weren't sharp in their last game against Northwestern this past Sunday. MIchigan State is 1-5 ATS the last six times going against a sub .500 opponent.
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01-04-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +8 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm expecting a good performance from the Pelicans here now that their two best players, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, have returned to the lineup. Both played last night in a 115-104 home loss to the Jazz. Each was rusty, not shooting well. The rust should be off now. |
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01-04-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 137.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The season-long defensive statistics are bad for these two teams. But there is more than meets the eye. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 57.5 points in its last two games decided in regulation. The Eagles are playing at a much slower tempo than they were at the beginning of the season. Western Michigan is averaging only 57.6 points during its past six games. The Broncos' defensive numbers are artificially high because of the number of top offenses they have played, including Iowa, Michigan State and Notre Dame. A slow pace game here is fine by the Broncos. |
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01-03-22 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The Nuggets, like most NBA teams, are dealing with COVID issues. But they still have Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon just returned to the lineup following a hamstring injury. Denver also catches Dallas in a vulnerable spot. So I'm going to go ahead and take the points with the road 'dog. The Mavericks got Luka Doncic back in their 95-86 road win against the Thunder on Sunday. Doncic had missed 10 games. He was playing for the first time in 23 days, logging 31 minutes wearing a knee brace. Not surprisingly, he felt sore after the game. So Mavs coach Jason Kidd has to be careful how he uses Doncic in this back-to-back spot. The Nuggets are the more rested team. This is their second game in six days. Dallas is in action for the fifth time in eight days. The Mavericks just concluded a five-game road trip so their concentration level could be off returning home following the holidays. Dallas hasn't been a good spread home team failing to cover in 14 of its last 20 home games. |
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01-03-22 | Oilers +115 v. Rangers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
The Oilers are in stop-the-pain mode with three consecutive losses, the last two coming in overtime. The Rangers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having just defeated the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, 4-0, on Sunday for the second time in three days. The Oilers have scored five goals in three of their last five games. They can be explosive with superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Rangers aren't likely to have their best player, forward Artemi Panarin. He was placed in COVID-19 protocols on Sunday. Edmonton is 5-0 the past five times facing the Rangers. |
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01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers. Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders +8.5 v. Colts | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing. Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr. The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground. The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season. The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers. |
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01-02-22 | Giants v. Bears OVER 36 | Top | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Two bad offenses playing in cold weather. Sounds like an Under, right? No, not when the total is this low and two worn down defenses are involved. The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6 points during their last three games. The Bears have scored at least 22 points in three of their past four games. David Montgomery is in line for a big performance with the Giants possibly down several of their run-stuffing defensive linemen. Andy Dalton can be effective with Montgomery doing the heavy lifting. Dalton has several underrated receiving targets. Matt Nagy shouldn't be afraid to open the playbook for the veteran Dalton. It's not like Nagy has anything to lose since he's likely to be canned at the end of the season. Former Bear Mike Glennon should get the start for the Giants. Glennon is a stiff, but he has some talented skill-position weapons and the Bears defense has not been good for a while now giving up an average of 27.6 points in their last nine games. |
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01-01-22 | CS-Northridge v. UC San Diego UNDER 132 | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal State Northridge has gone Under in seven of its nine board games this season. It's not a fluke. The Matadors play at a very slow tempo and are inept on offense ranking 343th in scoring at 60.5 points a game and 345th in field goal percentage at 38.7. Much of this has to do with Trent Johnson, who is in his first season as the Matadors coach. San Diego is an above average defensive team. But the Tritons aren't anything great offensively averaging 72 points. They are well below average on the offensive glass. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -120 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
I want the best quarterback in college football going for me here in this Sugar Bowl game. That QB is Matt Corral. Baylor has an improved defense. But the Bears haven't faced a quarterback of Corral's caliber with his legs and big arm. The Bears were fortunate to reach this game by nipping Oklahoma State, 21-16, in the Big 12 championship game. The Bears intercepted Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders four times in that victory. Corral can run like Sanders, but his throwing is far, far more accurate and better. Corral completed 68.4 percent of his throws for 3,339 yards and 20 TD's while adding 597 yards rushing and 11 running TD's. Here's the kicker about Corral: He threw just four interceptions in 380 attempts. The Rebels' offensive coordinator is Jeff Lebby, who was a former assistant coach at Baylor under Art Briles. Ole Miss averaged 506.7 yards and 35.9 points a game. The Rebels are deep at running back and wide receiver giving Corral plenty of options. The highly-respected Lebby will become Oklahoma's offensive coordinator following this game. Baylor isn't going to be able to slow down the Rebels unless coming up with turnovers. Bears QB Gerry Bohanon is not in Corral's class - few are - and he's coming off a hamstring injury. So his mobility might not be 100 percent. |
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01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pistons are an NBA team in name only. They may have been the worst team in the league - and that was before injuries and COVID-19 chewed up nearly their entire roster. Aside from Saddiq Bey and Hamidou Diallo, the Pistons lack NBA-qualified players. This is reflected in Detroit losing 18 of its last 19 games. The two teams just met six days ago. Final score: San Antonio 144, Detroit 109. The Pistons couldn't stop any of the Spurs. The Spurs aren't likely to win by 35 points again, but they should easily prevail by double digits. San Antonio won't enter this matchup overconfident after losing, 118-105, to the Grizzlies on the road last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Spurs either as they had been idle for four days prior to that game. |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Raptors were one of many NBA teams ravaged by COVID. But now they should be back at nearly full strength getting back Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. That's a combined scoring mark of nearly 55 points. These key cogs will join Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr. and Malachi Flynn, who returned in the Raptors' last game three days ago, a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers. The Raptors are rejuvenated now and should be sky high being home to take on the Clippers, who are in a flat spot after beating the Celtics, 91-82, on the road two days ago. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS following a point spread cover. The Clippers are minus their two best players with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out. They also are missing Nicholas Batum and possibly Reggie Jackson. The Clippers have yet to get it together this season. They were 1-5 before upsetting the Celtics. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many? The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl. But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified. Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten. The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage. This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Going by season statistics, this total seems right. But I find it too low given current form and the respective offenses having ample time to prepare. Wisconsin finished its regular season giving up 28 points to Nebraska and 23 points to Minnesota. These were not two of the Big Ten's more powerful offenses. Arizona State averages nearly 30 points a game and ranked 23rd in rushing. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels is a dual threat. The Badgers have another strong ground attack ranking 16th in the nation. Discounting their final regular season game against Minnesota, the Badgers averaged 35.8 points in their last five games.
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12-30-21 | Bucks -14 v. Magic | 136-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
This would be a huge mismatch if the teams were fully healthy. But they're not. Milwaukee not only is vastly superior - an "A'' level team to Orlando's "F'' level - but the Bucks are healthy and the Magic are down numerous rotation players because of COVID. The Bucks have won 10 straight versus Orlando, including all three meetings this season. Milwaukee has won these games by an average of 19 points. The two teams just met two days ago. The Bucks built a 29-point lead and sailed to a 127-110 victory. It was the Bucks' 15th win in their last 20 games. Yes, garbage time could be a problem if the Bucks build another huge early lead as expected. But the Bucks have tremendous team depth, have everyone healthy except Brook Lopez and are idle on Friday. So they should be able to maintain a healthy advantage throughout the game. The Magic may have motivation with triple in-season revenge, but they lack the bodies and talent to stay close. Orlando has lost by double-digits during five of its last six losses. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 320 h 4 m | Show |
This figured to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Not anymore with word that Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III are not going to play. Those two not playing completely changes the total. Pickett passed for 4,319 yards and 42 TD's. Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 TD's. They are the focal points of their team's offenses. Michigan State gave up 25.7 points per game. The Spartans now will draw Pittsburgh backup QB Nick Patti, a massive drop for Pittsburgh. The Panthers also will be minus well-respected offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. That's another huge hit for the Panthers' offense. The Panthers held opponents to 23.1 points. Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi made his reputation as Michigan State's defensive coordinator before taking over at Pittsburgh. The Spartans are ground-oriented. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the nation in run defense. Payton Thorne is a decent QB for Michigan State, but he's far from elite. He'll be facing a tough Panthers' defensive line. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-29-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
The timing is right for the Grizzlies to continue their winning ways. Memphis is 7-3 in its last 10 games and has its star guard, Ja Morant, back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games. The Lakers snapped a five-game losing streak outscoring the Rockets, 132-123, last night. LeBron James played nearly 40 minutes and Russell Westbrook logged nearly 35 minutes against the Rockets. The Lakers have already used 19 different lineups. They are down four rotation players due to COVID protocols along with being without injured Anthony Davis. The Lakers are 3-12 ATS versus above .500 teams. The Grizzlies have covered five of their past six home games against the Lakers.
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
The Pacers have covered four of the last five times they've hosted the Hornets. I expect them to cover this short number, too. Indiana has played far better at home than on the road this season. The Pacers are 5-1 in their last six home contests. During this span they beat the Wizards by six, Knicks by 20, Mavericks by 13, lost to the Warriors by just two, defeated the Pistons by nine and rolled the Rockets by 12. The Pacers have good backcourt depth if Malcolm Brogdon can't play. Indiana's frontline is boosted by the return of Domantas Sabonis. The Hornets are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
Two slow-paced, grind-out, ground-oriented type teams with mediocre quarterbacks. That's what we have here in this Guaranteed Rate Bowl between West Virginia and Minnesota. Given the matchup and circumstances, this game should be a dead nuts Under. West Virginia ranks 93rd in tempo. The Mountaineers have a subpar offensive line and QB in Jarrett Doege. Their best running back is Leddie Brown, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 13 TD's. Brown, though, opted out. Minnesota is extremely tough defensively ranking in the top 11 in the major defensive categories - points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Only three teams surrendered fewer yards per game than the Gophers. Minnesota plays even slower than West Virginia. The Gophers lost their first two running backs. But that doesn't change their approach. They run nearly 70 percent of the time. Their quarterback, Tanner Morgan, has had a disappointing season. Minnesota ranked 115th in passing. West Virginia ranks 33rd in run defense. |
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12-28-21 | Thunder v. Kings -5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Kings provided quite a surprise to their interim coach, Alvin Gentry, on his first game back from a COVID-19 related absence this past Sunday. Sacramento was whipped, 127-102, at home by Memphis. A livid Gentry called it the most disappointing performance he's had in his 34 years in the NBA. Gentry totally ripped his Kings. So I want the Kings going for me in what I anticipate should be an all-out effort. Oklahoma City is playing well, but the Thunder are one of the weaker teams in the NBA. They are fat and happy after upsetting the Pelicans at home in their last game two days ago. De'Aaron Fox returned from missing four games due to COVID protocols. He didn't play well against the Grizzlies, but he should have gotten the rust off. Fox is the Kings' best player and makes them a better team.
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12-28-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Wolves | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I want to fade the Timberwolves after they rallied to beat the Celtics, 108-103, at home last night. The Timberwolves accomplished this task minus their three best players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. I don't see a repeat performance for Minnesota playing without rest and down seven players all together because of COVID-19 protocols. The Knicks last played on Saturday when they rolled past the Hawks, 101-87, on the road with Kemba Walker having his best game of the season.
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12-27-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Hornets | 99-123 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
This is the Rockets' fifth straight road game. But it's their first game in four days. They draw the Hornets playing at home for the first time in 17 days. Charlotte recently returned from a six-game road trip. It's tough playing that first game at home from a concentration standpoint after being away for so long. The Rockets' rotation depth is better with the return of Jalen Green. The Hornets, meanwhile, have been missing a key rotation player, Cody Martin. The underrated Martin has missed the last three games because of COVID-19 safety protocol. The Hornets are simply a .500 team. I don't think they're good enough to cover a mid-size point spread given this spot. |
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12-27-21 | Rockets v. Hornets UNDER 235.5 | 99-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Neither team is good defensively. But circumstances, current form and a very high total make the Under a worthy play. The teams met earlier this season on Nov. 27. The Rockets won, 146-43, in overtime. Maybe the oddsmaker considered that in making this total so large. But things are different now. Each team has been idle for the past four days. That should mean some offensive rust. The Rockets have been held to 106 or fewer points in four of their past six games. The Hornets held the Nuggets to 107 points in their last game. That was the fewest points Charlotte allowed in nearly a month. Note the series history, too. The Under has cashed in nine of the past 11 meetings in Charlotte. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Nevada's outstanding passing attack is gutted with opt outs and transfers. The Wolf Pack will be minus star QB Carson Strong, tight end Cole Turner and wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Tory Horton, Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart. In addition, two of the Wolf Pack's starting offensive linemen won't be playing. Take all of that firepower away and of course the Wolf Pack aren't left with much. Nevada is going to have to run the ball more than normal. The Wolf Pack ranked 129th in rushing averaging 2.9 yards a carry. Western MIchigan gave up the 29th fewest yards in the nation. Unlike their offense, the Wolf Pack didn't suffer so many departures on defense. Nevada ranked a respectable 51st in scoring defense giving up 24.4 points a game. Western Michigan has been plagued by turnovers at times. Nevada ranked among the top 10 in turnovers. Note this is an extremely early start, 8 a.m. West Coast time for Nevada, so that could lead to sluggish play. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This a battle of two disappointing, injury/illness racked teams. Yes, the Clippers are missing several key players, including Paul George. But the Nuggets also are minus important players, including Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and possibly Aaron Gordon. So I see no reason why the Nuggets should be this high of road chalk. The Nuggets will have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic. The Clippers have the big body depth to defend him, though, with a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac. Denver is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Clippers have been up and down. They won four in a row before losing three straight. The Clippers halted that losing skid in their last game, a 105-89 road win against the Kings four days ago. The Clippers are 21-6-1 ATS when playing on three or more day's rest. They also are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times as a home 'dog. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10.5 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 45 m | Show | |
The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington. Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday. The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center. Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games. Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week. Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons. Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season. I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games. |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Jets | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired. |
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12-26-21 | Lions v. Falcons -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons.
The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. |
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12-26-21 | Giants +10 v. Eagles | 10-34 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -126 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
There's a certain ying/yang, zig/zag flow to the NFL season. Similar to the stock market, there is a buy low time. That time is now to get the Cardinals. Arizona is better than the 3-4 record it has during the last seven games, while the Colts aren't as good as their 5-1 record during their past six games. The Cardinals looked terrible losing to the Lions last week, while the Colts were outstanding in handling the Patriots last week. I expect a change-up this week and the price certainly is cheap enough to back the home Cardinals in circle-the-wagons mode. The teams have had eight common opponents. The Colts went 4-4 SU and ATS against those foes while the Cardinals went 7-1 SU and ATS. Indy needs Jonathan Taylor to succeed. But the Colts' excellent offensive line has injuries and COVID issues. They could be down as many as three O-line starters. Kyler Murray draws all the attention, but the Cardinals defense has been very good giving up the fifth fewest points in the league. Murray holds a huge edge on Carson Wentz. James Conner has 16 TD's, just three fewer than touchdown leader Taylor. I'm expecting an all-out desperation effort by the Cardinals. The Colts, on the other hand, could be flat after last week's performance and deflated knowing their long shot division chances took a huge hit when the Titans upset the 49ers this past Thursday. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 212 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Certainly the situation spells Under with the Hawks and Knicks meeting early Christmas morning after being idle Christmas Eve. The Hawks don't have any firepower. A COVID-19 outbreak has taken away all of Atlanta's explosive scorers, including Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Kevin Huerter. De'Andre Hunter also is out due to a wrist injury. That leaves the Hawks with very little firepower as evidenced by their scoring 98 points in each of their past two games. The Knicks are going to be stressing defense after Tom Thibodeau ripped them for giving up 124 points to the Wizards in a 124-117 loss this past Thursday. |