02-14-20 |
Denver v. South Dakota State -15 |
Top |
78-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
Kentucky, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Duke all have notable home court superiority. None of them have a better home record this decade than South Dakota St who is 126-7 SU at home while going 71-33-1 ATS. Denver is a bad team tainted with its own history. They play at a high altitude and have been 138-72 at home with a winning ATS record of 96-87-1. Put them on the road and they are 25-128 SU and 61-92 ATS. They are 0-11 on the road this season, so this is about as big as a mismatch as you will find for the price. S. Dakota St. has suffered as a home favorite from -9.5 to -12 where they are 13-12 ATS, but from -2.5 to -9 they are 35-7 ATS as well as 17-6 ATS from -12.5 to -18. Blowout time. Make the play on S. Dakota St.
|
02-14-20 |
Yale -3.5 v. Princeton |
Top |
88-64 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
Yale has been one of the top cover teams in college basketball. They are 55-36-2 ATS in their last 93 Ivy league contests. That turns into 25-11-1 ATS on the Friday night game when they are well rested. I also have them in a 29-1-1 ATS situation. Make the play on Yale.
|
02-13-20 |
Washington State v. UCLA -7.5 |
Top |
83-86 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Washington St. Cougars have a better record than UCLA coming into this game, so why is UCLA a solid favorite to win? It starts with the home vs road dichotomy regarding this Washington St. team. They are just 24-53 ATS on the road, and looking at the most recent 3 years in conference play they are 3-22 SU and 5-20 ATS with the average loss coming by 14.4ppg. (0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS this year as a road dog). Over the same period they are 28-18 SU at home and 26-19 ARS winning by 4.4ppg. They are therefore a team that is 19ppg worse on the road. I'm a bog fan of Mick Cronin the 1st year UCLA coach. he has a reputation for recruiting physical players that play tough and ugly. His team is starting to get it as UCLA has won the battle off the glass in 10 of their last 12. Moreover, UCLA went through a 4-9 stretch and is 9-2 otherwise. The latest run has them at 5-2 and opponents shooting just 40%. The Cougars are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS at Pauley the last decade losing by an average of 16ppg. Until they prove they can be competitive on the road, the Cougars are fade material. Make the play on UCLA.
|
02-11-20 |
Penn State v. Purdue -4.5 |
Top |
88-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
Penn St. has one of its best teams ever at 18-5 on the season. They are ranked at #13 in the country, and are riding a 6 game winning streak as they head to Purdue. Purdue is just 14-10 on the season so why are they a fairly significant favorite here? Playing at Purdue is no small task as many teams have discovered. They are 204-40 SU at home and 126-84-4 ATS. (169-25 SU and 116-74-4 ATS as a home favorite. They are shooting 48% at home and 41.4% from deep at home, while allowing 39% shooting and just 28% from deep. Purdue is now 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 home games, winning by an average of 19ppg. They have beaten Mich St., Wisconsin, and Iowa here by a combined 84 points! Purdue has averaged just 8 turnovers a game in their last 4 at home. Make the play on Purdue.
|
02-08-20 |
Gonzaga -5.5 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
90-60 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's and Gonzaga have been the top 2 teams in the West Coast Conference for years. This has become a huge rivalry game. the Zags used to struggle on the road in this game going through a 4-4 SU stretch, but the distance between these teams has changed and Gonzaga has opened up a much bigger advantage. They have beaten St. Mary's here in 6 of the last 7 meetings and have been 7-0 ATS in the process. They have held a winning margin of +12.8ppg in the 7 games. The winning margin has been 10 or more points in 6 of them. Think the Zags win easily here. Make the play on Gonzaga.
|
02-08-20 |
Nebraska-Omaha v. South Dakota State -7.5 |
Top |
64-81 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
South Dakota St. reigns supreme when it comes to a home court advantage as they are 128-7 SU and 73-33-1 ATS over the last 8 years or so (9-1 ATS this year). if you look at them from -2 to -17.5 they are 65-24-1 ATS. Can't ignore this under the radar team with the best home court in America. Make the play on S. Dakota St.
|
02-08-20 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
77-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
Tennessee is a tough place to play and this team has been impossible to score on at home where they have allowed 63.6ppg over their last 95 home games limiting opponents to 39% shooting. they have faced Kentucky here 5 times during this period and 4 of the 5 have played under the total as well. Kentucky has shot just 41% in these games and 28% from deep. These 95 games has seen Tennessee go 62-31-2 to the under. Male the play on the under.
|
02-07-20 |
Harvard v. Yale -5.5 |
Top |
78-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
The Ivy League was once dominated by Princeton and Penn, but there has been a changing of the guard over the last 9 years with Yale or Harvard having a hand on the Ivy Championship. It appears no different this season as Harvard heads to New Haven to take on Yale, and the winner having a leg up on the crown. Yale has been the most dominant team in the country in the point spread role from +1 to -11.5. I am certainly not going to stray from this potent situation. Make the play on Yale. team=YALE and line=-11.5 and season>2008SU:97-17 (8.57, 85.1%) ATS:81-29-4 (3.11, 73.6%) avg line: -5.5
|
02-06-20 |
St. Mary's -11 v. San Diego |
Top |
66-60 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 5 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's is 18-5 as they continue to be an under the radar team playing second fiddle to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels lost a heart breaker to BYU on the road by 2. The Cougars shot a sizzling 58% in that game. The Gaels have punished mediocre or bad teams as they are 55-19 ATS to a line of -12 or fewer points vs an opponent less than .545. San Diego has struggled all season at 8-16 and are just 1-8 SU in conference play and 2-7 ATS and 5 losses have come by 13+ points and lost to Gonzaga by 44 points at home. The Gaels take care of the ball with an average of 9 turnovers over their last 5 games, and will be hungry off a loss. Make the play on St. Mary's.
|
02-06-20 |
CS Sacramento v. Weber State UNDER 125 |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
Sacramento St. is 11-9 on the season, and this team has been taking the air out of the ball for quite some time. They allow just 55.9ppg on the road this season and overall they are now 52-23 to the under in their last 75 road games. Weber St. has a string basketball history but not this year as they are 8-14. Make the play on the under.
|
02-06-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe OVER 138 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Georgia Southern likes the uptempo and average 76.2ppg on the season. They played UL Monroe earlier in the season to their lowest scoring game where just 123 total points were scored. That has led to a total 5 points lower than that previous game, and I don't expect a repeat tonight. UL Monroe is a huge over team at home where the over is 39-12 in their last 51 at home. Make the play on the over.
|
02-06-20 |
Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 119.5 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
This Florida Gulf Coast team at 7-17 is a far cry from Andy Enfield's Dunk City team that gave many fits in the NCAA Tournament several years ago. The team struggles for offense, but does one thing well and that is defend. Stetson ar 12-12 is cut from a similar cloth as they struggle offensively and defend well. Florida Gulf Coast is 36-13 to the under in its last 49 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
02-06-20 |
Green Bay -4.5 v. IUPU-Indianapolis |
Top |
91-85 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin Green Bay at 11-13 is in the middle of what is a bad year for a team used to 20+ wins a season. They did play an aggressive out of conference schedule and have been 8-5 over their last 13 games. They will play with purpose as they were embarrassed at home by IUPUI 93-78 as a 10 point favorite just a dew short weeks ago. IUPUI is a woeful 6-18 on the season, and 2-10 SU in their last 12. green bay is in a 70-32 ATS conference situation for tonight's game. make the play on Wisconsin Green Bay.
|
02-05-20 |
Iowa v. Purdue -4 |
Top |
68-104 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 16-6 and ranked #17 in the country. They are posted as an under dog despite the fact that Purdue is just 12-10 on the season. While Iowa leads the Big-10 in scoring, the Boilermakers are dead last in the conference, so why is Purdue favored? there is ample proof why. Purdue is 82-8 SU in their last 90 home games including 53-26-2 ATS. This team shoots 46.5% at home and 39.3% from deep while holding opponents to 38.8% and 28.4% from deep. That has led to blowout wins at home vs Michigan St. 71-42 and Wisconsin 70-51. They have turned the ball over just 23 times in their last 3 at home. Iowa on the other hand has been woeful on the road over the last 4 years at just 9-26-1 ATS. make the play on Purdue.
|
02-04-20 |
Penn State v. Michigan State -8.5 |
Top |
75-70 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
Michigan St. was the preseason pick to cut down the nets, but at 16-6 they have not lived up to the billing. Who would of thought Penn St. at 16-5 would have a better record coming into this game. Michigan St. is just 3-3 in its last 3 games, but here is the caveat. They lost all 3 of those games on the road. Michigan St. is an entirely different team at home where they are 216-27 SU including 128-91-4 ATS. They are 48-16-1 ATS at home in their last 65 and 25-3-1 ATS at home from -2 to -13. Penn St. is a good story which will have Michigan St. ready tonight. make the play on Michigan St.
|
02-01-20 |
Samford v. Wofford OVER 147 |
Top |
56-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
Samford at 8-15 heads on the road where they have been mostly defenseless. They are 45-18 to the over in their last 63 on the highway. They are allowing 88ppg in their last 13 games overall and 93.1ppg in their last 7 on the road. Make the play on the over.
|
02-01-20 |
Kennesaw State v. North Florida -18.5 |
Top |
45-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
Kennesaw St. has already lost 20 games this season as they are 2-20. This is a really bad program and growing worse. They have been woefully bad on the road where they are 14-80 SU in their last 94 and currently on a 29 game road losing streak. Odds makers have had a tough time giving them enough points as they are 22-47 ATS on the road. B. Florida has played a very rugged schedule with games vs Florida, Florida St., Syracuse, Iowa, Creighton, and Dayton. There is one thing common in those 6 games. They covered all of them. N. Florida is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as well. Make the play on N. Florida.
|
02-01-20 |
NC-Wilmington +4.5 v. James Madison |
Top |
66-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
Not a whole lot of wins for either NC Wilmington (7-16) or James Madison (8-13). NC Wilmington has elevated their play however as they have won outright in 2 of their last 3 games as a dog of +7.5 and +13 points and missed the cover by 1 in the other. James Madison has really lost its confidence losing 7 straight and going 0-6-1 ATS in the process. JMU is one of the worst home teams in the country as they are now 51-89 ATS in their last 140 home games. Make the play on NC Wilmington.
|
01-30-20 |
Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 135 |
Top |
68-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
Mick Cronin had a trademark at Cincinnati. His teams played hard physical and ugly games and were tenacious on the defensive end. While he hasn't had time yet to get his type of players into the program, he will have some help tonight. Colorado has gone a decade of playing the type of game Cronin loves, physical and ugly as the Buff's are 66-35 to the under over the last 10+ years on the road. (4-0 this year). This one looks ugly, make the play on the under.
|
01-30-20 |
North Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 144.5 |
Top |
68-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
I've not been a proponent of team trends over the years. The main reason is the team trends tend to mostly be based on small sample sizes. Essentially what I am saying is 12-1 ATS, or 16-2 ATS pretty much always turn out to be variance. While variance can be present with any sample size, it diminishes in probability with larger sample sizes. I've always tried to hold ground with a sample size of 100 or more games. That pretty much precludes most team trends. Today in the newsletter we will look toward a team trend that is under the radar for a couple or reasons. It is a team trend with a sample size of 162 games, and it is a small or obscure school on the NCAA Basketball landscape, so it does not draw any attention. North Dakota games have averaged about 150 points over the period and I think there is a small school bias and an up tempo style that allows for the value. Odds makers seem to be reserved in posting large totals for a team that should not score as consistently as this one does. here is a look:
NDAKOT is 96-64-2 OU (3.60 ppg) since Mar 04, 2014.SU:84-101 (0.32, 45.4%) ATS:80-80-6 (-0.05, 50.0%) avg line: 3.4O/U:96-64-2 (3.60, 60.0%) avg total: 147. They are 60% to the over in a 162 game period. They are 63-31-1 OVER to a total of 137.5 to 152.5.
Consider N. Dakota/Purdue Fort Wayne OVER the total tonight.
|
01-30-20 |
College of Charleston -5.5 v. James Madison |
Top |
87-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
While the football program at James Madison continues to thrive the basketball program appears to be heading for their 4th straight losing season at 8-12. They have one of the worst homecourts in NCAA basketball as they are now 51-88-2 ATS in their last 141 on home hardwood. Charleston has won 24+ games in each of the past 3 years and is 13-8 on the season. Charleston owns 4 double-digit road wins on the season. make the play on Charleston.
|
01-29-20 |
Evansville v. Illinois State UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
66-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
Illinois St. and Evansville have both struggled this season. The Purple Aces are just 9-12 on the season while Illinois St. is a woeful 6-14. these teams combined to bring back just 4 starters this season. These teams have combined to produce just 110.7ppg combined vs common opponents this year (6 games), which may be telling tonight. Evansville has played 6 straight to the under, while Illinois St. is 93-46 to the under in its last 139 games. Make the play on the UNDER.
|
01-29-20 |
Davidson -4.5 v. George Washington |
Top |
104-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
It has been a painful few years for George Washington, and they have a losing record coming into this contest with Davidson who is 11-9. Davidson has apparently turned their season around with 3 straight wins and the 5 returning starters are starting to live up to their potential. The Wildcats fit a great situation tonight that is 125-74 ATS as well. Make the play on Davidson.
|
01-29-20 |
Northwestern v. Michigan State -17 |
Top |
50-79 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
Expert Analysis: Michigan St. was rated as the #1 team in the nation coming into the season. They got off to a bad start but have slowly become the team most expected they would be. One thing for sure this team is lethal at home where they are 215-27 SU and 127-91-4 ATS. Since the start of the 2015 season, they are 68-7 SU and 52-20-1 ATS at home. (32-9-1 ATS in conference games). make the play on Michigan St.
|
01-27-20 |
North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 |
Top |
75-65 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
When Cole Anthony went down with an injury so did the hopes of NC having a good season. The Heels are just 3-9 SU in their last 12, and just 5-14 ATS on the season. The only thing holding this line down is the school name. The Heels are 1-6 in the ACC. NC State is in a team specific revenge spot which is 37-22 ATS. make the play on NC State.
|
01-26-20 |
Xavier v. Creighton -5 |
Top |
66-77 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Xavier was a tanked team early in the season, but the team has suffered shooting wors all season long, and in recent conference games, especially on the road they have been exposed. Greg McDermott has done a great job at Creighton and the home court has been lethal for the Blue Jays as they are 213-45 SU here as well as 128-96-2 ATS. When the line has been -3 to -10.5 that expands to 70-41 ATS. Xavier is shooting just 43% on the season and a woeful 29.5% from deep, while the Jays at home are connecting on 48.3% and 39.6% from deep. McDermitt's record after having been an underdog in his last hame is a stellar 55-26-1 ATS. Make the play on Creighton.
|
01-25-20 |
St. Mary's -10 v. Loyola Marymount |
Top |
73-62 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
The St. Mary's Gaels are 16-4 and continue to be the #2 team in the West Coast Conference as they keep chasing Gonzaga. This is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at 41%. They tend to destroy teams like Loyola Marymount as they are 54-19 ATS as a favorite of -12 or fewer points when facing a team that is less than .545. make the play on St. Mary's.
|
01-25-20 |
Washington State v. Utah -7 |
Top |
64-76 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Washington St. Cougars have failed to put together a winning record for 7 straight years. They have made progress at 12-8 on the season but this team struggles go beyond the wins and losses as they are now 24-52-2 ATS in their last 78 road games. The road is the last thing that gets fixed from a broken program and that hasn't changed this season as they are 0-5 ATS on the road. Utah maybe just 11-7 on the season but they are 7-1 at home where the altitude has led to a string home-court edge. This has been a chamber of horrors for Washington St. who is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS at Utah. Make the play on Utah.
|
01-25-20 |
LSU v. Texas OVER 140.5 |
Top |
69-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
LSU is 14-4 and they like to get the ball up and down the court as they are averaging 80.6ppg. This team has been doing this for a long time especially on the road where they are now 50-25-2 to the over in their last 77 games. (4-0 this year so dar). Make the play on the over.
|
01-24-20 |
Yale -5 v. Brown |
Top |
73-62 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Jim Jones has done a great job at Yale and while he lost a lot from a year ago, he has already reloaded and his Bulldog team is poised for another Ivy title. yale shoots the ball well and plays suffocating defense and has limited opponents to 36.5% shooting on the season and just 27.5% from deep. Brown at 7-7 on the season shoots the ball poorly and will be hard-pressed to keep up in this one. Yale beat Brown last week by 14 in New Haven, despite shooting 34%. Yale fits in a mega-situation that is 80-29 ATS and a subset of 28-1-1 ATS. Strong play here on Yale.
|
01-24-20 |
Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 |
Top |
51-70 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Big-10 is well moted for its homecourt advantage, and Purdue has been the epitome of that registering a 52-26-2 ATS mark in their last 80 home games. Wisconsin isn't as good as they have been in recent years especially on the road where they shoot just 39% and just 26% from 3. Purdue shoots very well at home and has been taking out point spreads here with regularity. Make the play on Purdue.
|
01-23-20 |
San Francisco v. St. Mary's -9 |
Top |
48-58 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's is always chasing Gonzaga, and it is the same story this season. The Gaels have won 22+ games 12 straight seasons and at 16-4 this year will likely make it 13. The Gaels are 165-27 SU at home since 2007. They are 88-11 SU as a conference home favorite, with 5 of the losses coming at the hands of Gonzaga. The Gaels are an amazing 109-26 SU and 86-46-3 ATS as a -2.5 to -13.5 favorite vs an opponent off a win. They are also 14-0 SU/9-5 ATS at home vs SF, and covered the last 6. Make the play on St. Mary's.
|
01-23-20 |
Washington State v. Colorado -13 |
Top |
56-78 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 36 m |
Show
|
It has been nearly a decade since the Washington St. Cougars have made any noise in the Pac-12. They are off a successful 2 game stint at home taking down both Oregon and Oregon St. The issue for this team has been their woeful play on the road. The Cougars are 11-69 SU on the road since 2012 and a paltry 24-51-4 ATS. Make the play on Colorado.
|
01-23-20 |
Liberty v. North Florida UNDER 131 |
Top |
70-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
The basketball program at Liberty College has taken off, and still flying under the radar. The Flames are a remarkable 19-1 on the season and a win tonight would mean 4 straight 20 win seasons. They silently won 29 games last season. The Flames do it with the defense allowing just 36% shooting and a woeful 28% from deep. They also take the air out of the ball as their games average 102 shots per contest (similar to the old Princeton teams), but without the 110 or so totals those used to generate. Since the start of 2014 the Flames are 55-25-1 to the under in all games. The bloom has not come off the rose yet as they are 13-5 to the under this year. Consider Liberty vs N. Florida under the total tonight.
|
01-22-20 |
Cal-Irvine -9 v. Long Beach State |
Top |
56-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 24 m |
Show
|
NCAAB MOMENTUM CARRIES ON:
Momentum has its moments, and all sports are not created equal. As a rule pro sports are not momentum driven and college sports are. I should point out in either case nothing about sports betting is universally true. Some days you eat the bear and some days the bear eats you, so money management is the driver for longevity. As long as you maintain discipline and make soundly handicapped picks, with some degree of competency you will survive and win. Today in the newsletter we will examine a momentum driven situation that looks like this:
1) Play on a better than .500 road favorite but less than or equal to .600.
2) If they are off 3 straight wins or more.
3) The opponent must be below .500
This basically says that what was an average to a tick above average team on a winning streak are good bets as road chalk against bed teams. The record says:
A and line50 and WP
|
01-22-20 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota State -2 |
Top |
73-78 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
South Dakota St. is well under the radar playing in a small conference that gets little exposure. Since January 30, 2011, they have the best home record in college basketball at 127-7 SU. That has also translated to 72-33-1 ATS. Tough to ignore here. Make the play on S. Dakota St.
|
01-22-20 |
Samford v. Furman OVER 150.5 |
Top |
78-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
Samford has been a defensive liability on the road where they have allowed 80.8ppg in their last 62 games. This has led to an under the radar mark of 44-18 to the over in the 62 games, and 18-4 to the over in their last 22. Make the play on the over.
|
01-22-20 |
Western Carolina v. Mercer OVER 153 |
Top |
79-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
W. Carolina allows 82.2ppg on the road in their last 45 games leading to a 31-14 mark to the over. That has been 27-7 to the over with a posted total from greater than 137 and less than 168 covering the total by nearly 10 points per contest. Make the play on the over.
|
01-22-20 |
South Carolina v. Auburn -11 |
Top |
67-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 246-166-10 ATS and the play is on Auburn.
|
01-21-20 |
Ole Miss v. Tennessee UNDER 128 |
Top |
48-73 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Ole Miss has struggled as the schedule has become more difficult. They shot the ball very well against several cupcakes but as the schedule has increased in difficulty, they are 0-5 and as a team has shot as a team a woeful 37.3%. Tennessee lost a lot of firepower from last year's team, shooting just 40% at home, but the defense has been superb. The defense has always shown up at home, as the Vols are 60-31 to the under in its last 91 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
01-21-20 |
Wake Forest v. Clemson -9 |
Top |
68-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
Clemson and Wake Forest enter this game with identical 9-8 records. The one thing that stands out is Clemson beat Duke and NC in back-to-back games and has won 3 of its last 4. Clemson is looking for its 7th straight winning season and owns a cover rate at home in conference games of 55.3%. Wake has dropped 20+ games in 3 of the last 4 years. They have really found the road in conference play impossible to navigate as they are 16-102 SU and 46-71-1 ATS in their last 118. (30-53 ATS most recently). They have lost 7 straight times at Clemson covering just 1 of the last 5. Make the play on Clemson.
|
01-21-20 |
Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
79-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
Illinois shoots 46.2% for the season but it has been a different story on the road where they shoot a woeful 40.6%. It gets worse from deep where their season average is just 30.6% for the season but 23.6% on the road. Purdue sizzles at home and has played a more difficult schedule. The Illini punished Purdue at home just over 2 weeks ago 63-37. I think payback is in order tonight as Purdue is 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 home games. (7-2 ATS this year). Make the play on Purdue.
|
01-16-20 |
CS-Northridge v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 142 |
Top |
80-68 |
Loss |
-116 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
CS NORTHRIDGE/UC IRVINE UNDER 141.5 -105 40-19-2 UNDER SITUATION
|
01-15-20 |
Cal-Irvine v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 133 |
Top |
74-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
UC Fullerton has been an under machine producing a 59-32-4 ATS mark to the under in its last 95 games, including 6-2 to the under vs UC Irvine, in games that have produced just an average of 128 total points. All 3 meetings at home have played low and 3- to the under producing just 113.3ppg. Make the play on the under.
|
01-15-20 |
Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
78-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech has been a defensive demon at home, and when you put that together with the limited offense the result has been 92-47-1 ATS to the under in their last 140 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
01-15-20 |
Vanderbilt +14 v. Arkansas |
Top |
55-75 |
Loss |
-119 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 13-2 on the season after racing off to a clean start going 5-0 SU/ATS. they have been winning but the oddsmakers have caught up to them, just 4-6 ATS in their last 10. They won those 1st 5 games by 141 total points but since has won just 1 game by more than 10 points. Vandy won't get their full attention here, especially since they have a date at home vs Kentucky on Saturday. Vandy based in part of the look-ahead game for Arkansas is poised in a 73-41-2 ATS situation. Make the play on Vanderbilt.
|
01-15-20 |
North Dakota v. South Dakota State -7.5 |
Top |
66-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
SOUTH DAKOTA ST. BASKETBALL - SMALL IN STATURE - LARGE IN PROFITS: A hidden gem in the NCAAB world is the South Dakota St. Jackrabbits. they have been an NCAA Tournament team 5 of the last 7 years. they have won 18 or more games 9 straight seasons. they have also won 24 or more games in 6 of the last 8 seasons, yet few know much at all about them. All the winning amidst utter obscurity has unleashed the power of hidden value. Today in the newsletter we will take a look inside the numbers when a small college lower-tier team flies under the radar. They have only played to lined games at the division-1 level since 2009. Despite that, they are 237-118 SU and 169-128-3 ATS. here is the fun part. They are 142-18 SU at home and 72-44-1 ATS! team = SDS and season > 2008 and HSU:142-18 (15.56, 88.8%) ATS:76-44-1 (3.89, 63.3%) avg line: -9.2O/U:47-66-1 (-1.67, 41.6%) avg total: 146.4 And check out the UNDER as well. They are also 100-10 SU as a home favorite and 71-38-1 ATS! (34-11-1 ATS at home from -2.5 to -9. Consider S. Dakota St. tonight, and keep an eye on this cash cow going forward.
|
01-15-20 |
Samford v. East Tennessee State OVER 141.5 |
Top |
63-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
E. Tennessee St. is off to a 15-3 start to the season. They have shot the ball poorly in recent games, but against a defenseless Samford team, they will be looking to tick up the tempo and should have a breakout offensive game. Samford has allowed 88ppg in its last 9 and Chatanooga just struck for 105 against them. The last 5 road games have seen Samford yield 92.6ppg and the Bulldogs are notorious for road games playing over the total as they are 43-18 to the over in their last 61 roadies. Make the play on the over.
|
01-14-20 |
Missouri v. Mississippi State -2 |
Top |
45-72 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
Both these teams are 9-6 on the season. Miss St. comes in having lost 3 straight games but against much better competition. The Bull Dogs have 4 returning starters and just have more upside here especially at home. Missouri has shot poorly on the road at 40% and just 29% from deep. Could also be off a letdown here after shooting a sizzling 61.5% as a home dog vs Florida. make the play on Miss St.
|
01-14-20 |
Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
75-62 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
The B-10 Conference has long been known for its physical play. the question is if there is a way to cash in on that? Today in the newsletter we will take a look at the rugged B-10 Conference and key in on the home dogs and see what we find. We can start by looking at all B-10 home dogs:
conference = B10 and HDSU:184-345 (-4.78, 34.8%) ATS:270-249-10 (0.54, 52.0%) avg line: 5.3O/U:249-272-3 (0.55, 47.8%) avg total: 133.4 There is a 52.2% starting point which is a good springboard to dig deeper. If we only look at games with a medium to high total from 141 and up we get:
conference = B10 and total > 140.5 and HDSU:33-72 (-4.78, 31.4%) ATS:57-45-3 (1.12, 55.9%) avg line: 5.9O/U:41-63-1 (-0.84, 39.4%) We now see 60.6% of these games play to the under. If we avoid uncompetitive games and cap the line at fewer than +12 points we get:
conference = B10 and total > 140.5 and HD and line < 12SU:33-63 (-3.77, 34.4%) ATS:51-42-3 (1.12, 54.8%) avg line: 4.9O/U:34-61-1 (-1.76, 35.8%) That is 64.2% to the under. Tonight consider Iowa/Northwestern UNDER the total.
|
01-14-20 |
Duke -10.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
72-79 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
Duke and its young talented players are coming together and look like a team that could make a long March run. Duke is 15-1 on the season and Clemson is a weak offensive team and will have trouble staying in this one. Duke has won 9 straight games by a combined margin of 205 points, or 22.8ppg. Clemson has already lost at home to Yale by 9 points. Make the play on Duke.
|
01-11-20 |
The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 152 |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
Wofford lives to turn games into track meets especially at home where they are averaging 89ppg and shooting a sizzling 53% from the field. the Citadel will be obliging as they are averaging 83.6ppg. Wofford has seen their last 128 home games play 84-42-2 to the over. make the play on the over.
|
01-11-20 |
Jacksonville v. Liberty UNDER 115 |
Top |
37-54 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 45 m |
Show
|
Jacksonville has a tough as they head to Liberty to take on the upstart 17-1 Flames. Liberty has been the surprise of the season so far, and the Flames are dominating defensively on their home floor, which has been going on for quite some time. Flames allowing a stingy 32% shooting at home, and 23% from deep. Slow pace, the great defense has led Liberty to a 54-24 mark to the under at home in its last 78. Make the play on the under.
|
01-11-20 |
South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 132 |
Top |
55-56 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
Tennessee and South Carolina saw a lot of roster turnover from last year. each team returned just 1 starter from 2018. The offense has been slow and methodical for both teams, and Tennessee is shooting just 43% on the season. the good news is the defense which has always been elite, especially at home is allowing just 37.8% shooting on home hardwood. SC is also shooting just 43% and allows 39%, so there will be some scoring droughts in this contest. Tennessee's defense continues to dominate home games as the Bols are now 60-30-2 to the under in their last 92 at Rocky Top. make the play on the under.
|
01-09-20 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -2.5 |
Top |
84-87 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 56 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's has been a very strong team for years since Randy Bennett took over a failing program. He has been 414-174 in his only head coaching job. Tonight they are in a double perfect spot as St. Mary's is 85-45-3 ATS to a line of -2.5 to -13.5 vs an opponent off a win: team=STM and line=-13.5 and op:WSU:107-26 (8.98, 80.5%) ATS:85-45-3 (1.29, 65.4%)At the same time, BYU is 29-66 ATS off a win where the line is less than -3. Make the play on St. Mary's.
|
01-09-20 |
Minnesota v. Michigan State -12 |
Top |
58-74 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
Over the last 5 years Michigan St. has dominated its homecourt. The Spartans are 50-20 ATS here since the start of the 2015 season. When it is a conference game they are 30-9-1 ATS. Put them on their home floor as a favorite of fewer than 14 points and they are 22-2-1 ATS. (11-0-1 ATS last 12, and 21-1-1 ATS last 23). Make the play on Michigan St.
|
01-09-20 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia Southern UNDER 140 |
Top |
56-67 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
UL Monroe has been a cash cow to the under on the road where they are 62-100-3 O/U in their last 165 games. (1-4 O/U so far this year). team = ULMON and A and date >= 20071229SU:41-146 (-9.71, 21.9%) ATS:93-82-3 (0.15, 53.1%) avg line: 10.3O/U:62-100-3 (-2.96, 38.3%) avg total: 135.6 Make the play on the under.
|
01-08-20 |
UC-Santa Barbara -9 v. Cal Poly |
Top |
63-45 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
Cal-Poly is one of the worst home teams in the country having gone 15-44 ATS at home in its last 59. make the play on UC Santa Barbara.
|
01-08-20 |
UNLV v. Boise State -5.5 |
Top |
66-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
UNLV has had a very difficult time finding the bottom of the net as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 42% for the season. It will be tough to hang in against a Boise St. team that shoots 48.5% at home. UNLV despite a very home-oriented schedule is just 8-8 on the season and has not played on the road in over a month. Boise St. os 9-4 SU and ATS in its last 13 and has won 6 straight games at home by an average margin of over 20ppg. Make the play on Boise St.
|
01-08-20 |
Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech is the biggest under team at home in NCAAB. They are 92-47-1 to the under in their last 140 games at home. Make the play on the under.
|
01-03-20 |
Georgetown v. Seton Hall -6.5 |
Top |
62-78 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
It has been a tough season for Georgetown. They are down a couple of key players dismissed from the team, and 2 others as well. Add to that McCling and his 15.5ppg is questionable to play vs Seton hall tonight. The Hall is just a much better team, with perhaps the best player in NCAA basketball on Powell. Going to be hard for the Hoyas to compete as the Hall has better athletes and all around skill at all 5 positions. Make the play on Seton Hall.
|
01-02-20 |
St. Mary's -2.5 v. San Francisco |
Top |
69-58 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's won just 22 games last year and had 12 losses. They had won 25+ games in 7 of 9 years and are back to business in 2019 off to a 12-2 start. This team simply doesn't lose conference road games to anyone other than Gonzaga when they have their typical team. They lost to SF on the road last year by 4, you can bet they remember that game. The Gaels are 24-3 against SF in the last 27 meetings. They get revenge tonight. Make the play on St. Mary's.
|
01-02-20 |
USC -3 v. Washington State |
Top |
65-56 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
Washington St. has not won more than 13 games since 2012. They are off to a 9-4 start but finishing with a winning record is still not likely. They have been double-digit favorites in 6 of those wins. They have played well below the line at 5-8 ATS. USC is back after 1 down year and Andy Enfield continues to draw high-level recruits to the program so the down years are not compiled. The combination of last year's USC failures and the apparent better team in the Cougars has held this line in check. make the play on USC.
|
01-02-20 |
Oregon State v. Utah -2 |
Top |
69-81 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
Oregon St. is slowly getting better, but the 11-2 record at this point has shown them to be quite untested. They have had just 1 big road game (2 road games all season) at Texas A&M and they were blown out. last year they won 18 games but started 11-4 to a soft schedule and wilted once the competition stiffened. They have little experience on the road and the altitude at Utah could make this one tougher. Utah is 82-7 SU at home as a favorite since 2013 and 54-32-3 ATS. Make the play on Utah.
|
12-22-19 |
Nevada v. St. Mary's -7 |
Top |
63-68 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 79-27 ATS and the play is on St. Mary's.
|
12-21-19 |
St. John's v. Arizona -10.5 |
Top |
70-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 206-138 ATS and the play is on Arizona.
|
12-21-19 |
Weber State v. BYU -17.5 |
Top |
61-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 77-39 ATS and the play is on BYU.
|
12-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Oklahoma State -3 |
Top |
86-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 83-46 ATS and the play is on Oklahoma St.
|
12-21-19 |
Purdue v. Butler -2 |
Top |
61-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 101-64 ATS and the play is on Butler.
|
12-20-19 |
SMU v. Georgia -4.5 |
Top |
85-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
The SMU Mustangs were a great team over a four-year period that saw them win 109 games. They have since struggled to reclaim the magic. While the 8-1 start suggests they are back, a quick look at the schedule shows it has been chock full of cream puffs. Their toughest game was their last one and they were exposed by Georgetown in a 17-point loss. Georgia has three losses all to top teams in Dayton, Michigan State, and Arizona State. I think that they are better prepared to take on SMU at home, and the Mustangs have yet to prove anything. I also have a situation here that is 107-61 ATS and the play is on Georgia.
|
12-17-19 |
Grand Canyon v. New Mexico -11 |
Top |
71-91 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
The New Mexico Lobos have one of the toughest venues to play at in college basketball. They play in what is affectionately known as The Pit. They are 189-44 SU here and 117-86-4 ATS. The kids from Grand Canyon have never played here, and this is a team that shoots just 27.8% from deep and could really struggle in this environment. Lobos ate 7-0 here this season and shooting 50.4% on home hardwood. Grand Canyon has played almost exclusively at home or on a neutral court this season and is 4-8. Their only true road game was at San Diego St. where they were buried 85-61. Lobos own a 58-38 ATS mark as double-digit home favorites. I see something similar tonight. make the play on New Mexico.
|
12-16-19 |
Kennesaw State v. Murray State -18.5 |
Top |
38-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
There is a huge difference between these teams in talent and pedigree. That is, for the most part, baked into the line. We have to dig into the situation and see if it is right. When a team has a scoring margin of 8+ and taking on a team that has a scoring margin of -11 it certainly is a lopsided game. The key is having the better team off an easy game, where they did not tax themselves very much. We can get a visual of this by looking at this: tA(margin) >= 8 and oA(margin) = 20SU:400-44 (24.82, 90.1%) ATS:109-65-3 (4.21, 62.6%) avg line: -17.6 These teams tend to dominate at 62.6% ATS and have an ATS margin of +4.21 points per game, which indicates some line value. We also want to make sure they do not have a big look ahead game in waiting, and they do not. Make the play on Murray St.
|
12-04-19 |
Georgetown v. Oklahoma State -10.5 |
Top |
81-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
It is a gloomy day at Georgetown for the Patrick Ewing led Hoyas. It was announced that leading scorer and last year's Big East Freshman of the year, James Akinjo has entered the transfer portal. he along with key reserve Josh LeBlanc and 2 other players are gone. there are sexual assault charges made against some players, Akinjo may not be part of that. The Hoyas trying to return to glory just took a huge step backward. Oklahoma St. is off to a 7-0 start and dismantled both Syracuse and Ole Miss in their last 2 games. make the play on Oklahoma St.
|
12-03-19 |
Murray State v. Missouri State -4 |
Top |
69-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
Murray St. has been an excellent mid-major program for years, and won 26 games in 2017 and 28 a year ago. They are going to struggle this season as Ja Morant is gone and he leaves a gaping void. They have 4 wins, but 2 came against schools no one has ever heard of and in lined games, they are just 1-5 ATS on the season. Missouri St. is just 3-5 but 4 of the losses were to Buffalo, LSU, Xavier, and Miami, FL. The other loss was by a single point. They last played at home on November 12. The Racers are getting a lot of play off of last season but clearly are not on nearly the same level. Make the play on Missouri St.
|
12-03-19 |
Michigan v. Louisville -4.5 |
Top |
43-58 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 87-26 ATS, make the play on Louisville.
|
12-03-19 |
North Dakota State v. Indiana State -3 |
Top |
60-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
North Dakota St. lost as an underdog in their season opener and has played posted as a favorite in each of its last 7 games and lost 2 of them. This tends to skew a team's all-around numbers as the stats will obviously be greater than what they would be if they had played 7 straight as a dog. This is often where line value can be found in a game. They will play as an underdog at Indiana St. tonight who opened the season as a dog in 4 straight games but has now won 2 straight as a favorite, more value. The Sycamores have yet to play a lined game at home on the season and should deliver a solid performance tonight. Make the play on Indiana St.
|
12-02-19 |
Miami-FL v. Illinois -8 |
Top |
81-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
This one is from a situation that plays on moderate favorites with a +12 scoring margin or greater that is off an easy game leading by 20+ at the half: HF and line=-9.5 and tA(margin)>=12 and p:margin at the half>=20SU:197-49 (8.21, 80.1%) ATS:143-99-4 (1.35, 59.1%) Illinois tonight.
|
11-29-19 |
Utah State v. St. Mary's -2.5 |
Top |
73-81 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
Randy Bennett has probably dome a better job at St. Mary's than any other coach at any school. This program was a mess and was winning fewer than 10 games a season when he took over. Now this team is close to the level of Gonzaga and has won 22 games or more for 12 straight years. Utah St. is a powerful mid-major as well with one of their better teams. St. Mary's, however, is a tough out at home where they are 212-37 SU since 2006. They are also 83-43-3 ATS when facing an opponent off a win to a line of -2.5 to -13.
team=STM and line=-13.5 and op:WSU:104-25 (9.12, 80.6%) ATS:83-43-3 (1.41, 65.9%)Make the play on St. Mary's.
|
11-25-19 |
Northwestern v. Bradley -3 |
Top |
78-51 |
Loss |
-118 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
The opening round of the Fort Myers Tip will have 2-2 Northwestern doing battle with Bradley. After a woeful 5-27 season in 2015, the Bears program has been on the improve and has win 20 games each of the last 2 seasons and has opened 4-1. The beats have held all 5 teams to 42% or less shooting and have been a force off the glass winning the battle in all 5 games. Northwestern had a telling loss at home as a 19 point favorite vs lowly Merrimack and their last 2 games shot 33% vs Radford and Norfolk St. make the play on Bradley.
|
11-25-19 |
Richmond v. Wisconsin -6 |
Top |
62-52 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
Richmond coach Chris Mooney has all 5 starters returning from a year ago, but the Spiders were just 13-20 suffering their 2nd straight 20 loss season. A 4-0 start certainly has elevated expectations. They will take on Wisconsin in Brooklyn, NY to kick off the Legends Classic. This will be the 1st venture into the deep end of the pool for Richmond and I don't think it is going to go very well. Wisconsin is talented and plays suffocating defense. The Spiders unbeaten start will ensure the Badgers deliver their "A" game, which at this point is much better than Richmond. make the play on Wisconsin.
|
11-22-19 |
Houston v. Oregon -6.5 |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Houston Cougars basketball program has been on the rise under Kelvin Sampson and made it to the sweet-16 a year ago. They lost a lot from that team but gained quite a bit with the transfer of Quentin Grimes from Kansas. Sometimes when a coach says something you are better served to ignore it, but not always. Sampson pointed out the inexperience of his team as a cause for concern, and I agree. Oregon lost at Houston last year and will be ready for redemption at home. Oregon has a boatload of young talent with one major difference. They have a closer and leader in Payton Prichard. The Oregon defense is elite, not something that a young team will handle well. Prichard makes everyone better around him, and he is the game-changer here. The Ducks are 137-19 SU at home since 2011 covering 57.4% of them on the blind. The Dicks have covered 11 straight at home as a favorite from -4 to -12.5. Make the play on Oregon.
|
11-22-19 |
Bowling Green v. Western Kentucky -3.5 |
Top |
77-75 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rick Stansbury has the W. Kentucky Hilltoppers back. Stansbury is a master recruiter and he is bringing high-level players into W. Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have won 47 games the last 2 years and are out of the gate 4-0. PARADISE JAM - Round 1 - VI Sport & Fitness Center - St. Thomas, VI His team is shooting 56% on the season and has won the battle of the glass in all 4 games. he has 4 returning starters and a deep bench. Bowling Green is off a 22 win season and has some experience of their own, but lack the athleticism on this W. Kentucky team, that is a likely NCAA Tournament team this season. Make the play on Western Kentucky.
|
11-22-19 |
Houston Baptist v. Michigan UNDER 153.5 |
Top |
68-111 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
A lot of these early season mismatches end up playing under the total, likely due in part o so much garbage time. Gome teams of -15 or more points and a higher total from 150 and up tend to play a lot of games under the total: H and line=150SU:1068-49 (21.63, 95.6%) ATS:544-551-22 (0.40, 49.7%) avg line: -21.2O/U:491-612-14 (-1.59, 44.5%) avg total: 156.7 Make the play on the under.
|
11-21-19 |
New Mexico +4 v. New Mexico State |
Top |
78-77 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
New Mexico is off to a nice start and will take on a huge rival in N. Mexico St. on the road. The Lobos have a lot of 5-year players and transfers from Towson St., Ohio St., UConn, and Arizona St. They all have a lot of experience and contributing heavily. Ja'Quan Lyle is a true stat stuffer scoring 19 a game with 5 boards and 6 assists. N. Mexico St. has had some strong teams of late but play in an easy conference. Perhaps a notable comparison is the Lobos lost at UTEP by 3 and the Aggies list there by 15. N. Mexico St. was completely dominated by Arizona by 30. Think the Lobos have the best player on the court as well as the deeper and more productive rotations here. Make the play on New Mexico.
|
11-20-19 |
Fresno State v. St. Mary's -8 |
Top |
58-68 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's is a real threat to Gonzaga this season as coach Randy Bennett has brought back 4 starters along with a lot of depth. The Gaels have won 20+ games for 12 straight seasons including 25+ in 9 of the 12. This has become a formidable mid-major program under Bennett. Fresno St. brings back just 2 starters and not a whole lot of depth and there will be a lot of od mismatches in both experience and athleticism on the court here for St. mary's to exploit. Gael's got a wake-up call already this season losing to Winthrop as an 18 point favorite. That should have them well in focus for this one. make the play on St. Mary's.
|
11-20-19 |
San Diego State -7 v. San Diego |
Top |
66-49 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
A battle for San Diego as the 3-0 Aztecs will make a small road trip to take on the San Diego Toreros who have opened at 2-3. This is going to be a major challenge for the Toreros as they have shot the ball poorly all season having connected on less than 40% shooting in 4 of their 5 games. The Aztecs have a long reputation for getting after it on the defensive end. That has been no different this season as they have allowed just 58ppg and that includes a win as a dog vs a ranked BYU team. There isn't a food path for San Diego in this one. make the play on San Diego St.
|
11-15-19 |
BYU v. Houston -11.5 |
Top |
72-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
Play on Houston team=BYU and p:W and line>=-2.5SU:23-68 (-6.55, 25.3%) ATS: 27-63-1 (-3.14, 30.0%)
|
11-13-19 |
Purdue v. Marquette -1 |
Top |
55-65 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Big East has some high-level teams this season and for those that thought this was a conference in decline just have to look at recent National Champions. There is nothing like having a guy that can dominate like Marquette's Markus Howard. he can win a game all by himself and certain can close out a close game. Purdue had that themselves last season with Carsen Edwards but he has departed. Purdue got early exposure to how much they will miss him in a competitive game losing to Texas as a favorite 70-66. Marquette has the advantage here early in the season. Make the play on Marquette.
|
11-13-19 |
LSU v. VCU -3 |
Top |
82-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
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One would have to think that former VCU coach Will Wade will be greeted by a raucous crowd at VCU tonight. These teams can score in bunches and quickly as LSU has had a 19-0 run and VCU a 20-0 run. While I respect Wade as a coach he has just 2 starters returning from a year ago, and VCU is a very experienced team playing at home. LSU is ranked #23 and I think that is based on last season more than the talent pool that remains. There is a long history of unranked favorites beating ranked teams at home (56% ATS since 2012. make the play on VCU.
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11-12-19 |
Miami-FL -2.5 v. UCF |
Top |
79-70 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
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Both Central Florida and Miami, Fla. lost a lot of talent and experience from a year ago. UCF coach Johnny Dawkins returns just 1 starter and if there is a prelude to what to expect this season, they won their opener against Prairie View A&M by just 4 points. Prairie View has lost 22 games each of the last 2 seasons. Miami dropped their opener to a very string Louisville team and won easily vs Florida Atlantic. UCF even lost the battle of the glass in the opener, and this team is going to struggle early this season. Make the play on Miami,FL.
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11-11-19 |
Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Vanderbilt -14.5 |
Top |
66-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
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This game fits a sityation that is 61-5 ATS and the play is on Vanderbilt.
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11-10-19 |
Florida State v. Florida -5.5 |
Top |
63-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
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This game fits my best NCAAB situation which is 61-4 ATS. Make the play on Florida.
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11-09-19 |
CS-Fullerton v. Stanford -13 |
Top |
54-70 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
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This game fits my best NCAAB situation of all and it is 59-4 ATS. The play is on Stanford.
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11-09-19 |
CS-Northridge v. New Mexico -13.5 |
Top |
70-97 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
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This game fits my best NCAAB situation of all and it is 59-4 ATS. The play is on New Mexico.
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11-08-19 |
Harvard -3 v. Northeastern |
Top |
79-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
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The Harvard Crimson won a share of the Ivy Conference a year ago. It has been a few years since Tommy Amaker has been to the NCAA Tournament, but this is one of his best teams. Harvard returns their top 9 scorers from a year ago, and scarier than that is in their opener Freshman Chris Ledlum led them in scoring and rebounding. That maybe because Bryce Aiken and his 22.2ppg a year ago sat the game out but will be in action tonight. Northeastern was an NCAA Tournament team a year ago but has to replace 3 starters and struggled in the opener vs BU. Harvard could crack the top 25 this season, and at this stage of the season is ahead of what will become a solid Northeastern team. Make the play on Harvard.
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11-07-19 |
Seattle University v. Washington State -3.5 |
Top |
54-85 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
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The Cougars open at home vs Seattle as they hope to build upon an 11-21 campaign a year ago. They also seek to revenge a loss to the Redhawks 78-69 from a year ago. Kyle Smith takes over the program at Washington St. and he has 5 key players returning from a year ago as well as some notable upper-classmen transfers. The lack of success from a year ago and a loss to Seattle has held the line down here. Cougars are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 against the WAC. This one won't be easy, but the Cougars are poised to take down a skinny number here and avenge last year's disaster. Make the play on Washington St.
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11-06-19 |
Merrimack v. Maine -1 |
Top |
64-84 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
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Small home favorites in game 1 have a tendency to feed off the crowd and play above their projected level: HF and game number = 1 and line >= -4SU:69-28 (4.36, 71.1%) ATS:63-32-2 (1.73, 66.3%) avg line: -2.6 make the play on Maine.
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11-06-19 |
Notre Dame +10 v. North Carolina |
Top |
65-76 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
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North Carolina will have a totally different look this season, and for the first time in many years, there are a lot of question marks. Complicating matters is senior Brandon Robinson sprained an ankle in the exhibition game vs Winston-Salem St. It is likely the Heels start 2 freshmen, and 2 grad transfers. The Heels committed 23 turnovers vs Winston-Salem St. so a lot of work ahead. Notre Dame was 3-15 in the conference a year ago, but Rex Pfluger returns from an ACL injury and Notre Dame is going to be much better. Catching the Heels in game 1 is big for Notre Dame, as the team is very unsettled right now. Make the play on Notre Dame.
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11-06-19 |
Wake Forest v. Boston College -2.5 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
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Small home favorites in game 1 have a tendency to feed off the crowd and play above their projected level: HF and game number = 1 and line >= -4SU:69-28 (4.36, 71.1%) ATS:63-32-2 (1.73, 66.3%) avg line: -2.6 Make the play on BC.
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11-05-19 |
American v. Siena -2.5 |
Top |
80-96 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
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Small home favorites in game 1 have a tendency to feed off the crowd and play above their projected level: HF and game number = 1 and line >= -4SU:69-28 (4.36, 71.1%) ATS:63-32-2 (1.73, 66.3%) avg line: -2.6Play on Siena.
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