Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-21 | Nicholls State v. Southeastern Louisiana OVER 143 | Top | 86-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This game fits a total situation that is 41-9 ATS and the play is on the over. |
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02-13-21 | Western Carolina v. Furman OVER 147.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
This game fits a total situation that is 113-59 ATS and the play is on the over. |
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02-13-21 | Wake Forest v. Florida State OVER 142 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
This game fits a total situation that is 96-45 ATS and the play is on the over. |
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02-09-21 | Kent State v. Bowling Green | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The MAC is led by Toledo and Akron, the two teams that seem to rule the top of the conference each year. There is a log jam between 3-8 in the conference with Kent St. at the top of that list but Bowling Green just 1.5 games back. Looking at Bowling Green and their 10-8 record doesn't say much, but they have been in free fall losing 5 straight and failing to cover any of them. Bowling Green came within 5 on the road of this Kent St. team during this losing streak, and have revenge for this one. The Falcons have won the turnover battle in 9 of its last 10 games, while Kent St. has lost that same battle in 6 of its last 7. That will be crucial to the outcome here, and the Falcons are in a very strong 83-43 ATS situation. Make the play on Bowling Green. |
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02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
VCU absolutely destroyed this Dayton team just 16 days ago 66-43. The Rams have a habit of creating chaos in their games and their games typically turn into turnover fests, as over their last 9 games they average 16.4 turnovers per contest. They enter this contest at 13-4 but have played below the line at just 2-7 ATS in their last 9. Dayton had a magical year last season, and never got a chance to be in the NCAA Tournament because it was canceled. The Flyers are 6-2 SU/ATS over their last 8. They have spent a lot of time on the road, but finally will play at home over their next 3 games where they have won and covered 4 straight. Both these teams have injury issues, and Dayton has some serious revenge business along with a situation in their favor that is 83-43 ATS. Make the play on Dayton. |
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02-09-21 | South Alabama v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 70-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Georgia St. has slipped to 8-4 on the season, and lost 2 straight to Appalachian St. They have now failed to cover three straight games. The strange covid-19 season has seen South Alabama play their last 10 games against just 3 other opponents. The Jags come out of 3 straight ugly wins where neither team in any of the 3 games topped the 40% mark from the field. Georgia St. shoots better than 54% at home where they also connect on better than 41% of their 3's. This will be the first time South Alabama is going to be challenged to hit shots and they have not shown that ability this season. Georgia St fits a situation that is 128-74 ATS. Make the play on Georgia St. |
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02-06-21 | Drake -12.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Don't look now but Drake is off to a 17-0 start. This is a very difficult team to beat simply because of the depth. Drake has won 12 games by double-digits this season, they have had 8 different players lead them in scoring in any given game and shoot 52% fo the season and 39% from deep. They have had 5 different players score 20+ this season. Valparaiso is simply a good basketball school, having a horrible season. They have been blown out a lot and will be over-matched here. Make the play on Drake. |
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02-06-21 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -19 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
The Loyola, Chicago Ramblers were seen in the final four a few years ago, and they really have things going as they have won 8 straight games to move to 15-3 on the season and this team is also on a 10-1-1 ATS run. The defense has stopped opponents cold, as the Ramblers are allowing 50ppg over their last 8.Big mismatch here. Make the play on Loyola,Chicago. |
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02-06-21 | Belmont -16.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | Top | 94-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Belmont always has a good team and this may be their best. The Bruins are off to a 19-1 start and look for win #20 against a struggling SIU-Edwardsville team that is just 7-8 on the season. The Bruins beat this team by 52 earlier in the season. The Bruins have been 6-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk since the first of the year. The Bruins have been sizzling over their last 5 games converting 166-302 shots at 55%. Edwardsville is on the reverse side of that failing to shot 40% in any of their last 3. This will be the 4th straight oad game for Belmont, and coach Alexander's team has thrived in this spot having posted a 15-1 ATS record on the road for a 4th straight game. Belmont is 44-28 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite as well. Make the play on Belmont. |
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02-03-21 | Virginia -6.5 v. NC State | Top | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
NC State sure has some issues to deal with. The Wolfpack managed just 1 win in January, and 1 cover as well. Things went from bad to worse when at the end of the month they lost their leading scorer Devon Daniels to a torn ACL. Virginia saw their winning streak halted vs Virginia Tech after blowing a 10 point lead, so I imagine they will be in an ornery mood tonight. They were also without D.J. Funderburk because of a university policy last game, and it is unclear if he will play tonight. Virginia seldom beats themselves as they average just 8 turnovers a game over their last 8 contests. Coach Bennett's style translates very well on the road where his Cav's team is 75-45 ATS, and 52-23 ATS when he is on the road with a total below 130. Make the play on Virginia. |
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02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri -4.5 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
These teams have played to a schedule of teams that are flat even. The difference here are two things. Missouri is 11-3 and Kentucky is 5-10, and Kentucky is a blue-blood with a huge reputation, and that changes the line in a big way. Coach Cal lost everything from a year ago, returning 0 starters and a lot of promising freshman. The freshman can't shoot, and the Cats are converting just 41.5% on the season, and a woeful 29.4% from deep. The Cats also turn the ball over too much, and simply aren't close to the caliber team we have seen here for so many years. If the uniform names were reversed, as well as the stats and records, Kentucky would be a double-digit favorite. It's the uniform holding the line down here. Make the play on Missouri. |
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02-02-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -7.5 | Top | 45-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Arkansas and Mississippi St. have played almost an identical strength of schedule to this point, and Arkansas has had a lot more success. The Razorbacks have been a strong home team for decades, and coming off a road loss and playing at hoe they have gone 61-37 ATS. They have been even better at home coming off a loss of 6 or fewer points where they have rebounded to go 32-16 ATS. Coach Howland's team have fared poorly after a 20+ point blowout win where they are 8-17 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Arkansas. |
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02-02-21 | Kansas State +18 v. Kansas | Top | 51-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Very large under dogs in conference games don't fare very well as a rule. I have a 72-34 ATS situation for this game that actually uses part of that for its application. Make the play on Kansas St. |
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02-02-21 | Michigan State v. Iowa -9 | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Iowa has Luka Garza, and he has dominated for Iowa. He leads the nation in scoring pumping in 26.4ppg. Michigan St. is always good which earned them a reputation ranking early in the year as high as #5 in the country. The Spartans have never lived up to the billing. The Spartans have not won since January 5th, some due to covid-19, but have lost 3 straight. The last 2 losses by 17 and 30 points. Michigan St. has failed to cover 7 of ts last 8, and 5 of their 6 losses would not have covered this number. Izzo's teams are 1-12 ATS off a double-digit road loss. Make the play on Iowa. |
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02-01-21 | UCF +9 v. Memphis | Top | 69-96 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 128-81-9 ATS and the play is on UCF. |
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02-01-21 | Bradley v. Indiana State +2 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 66-19-3 ATS and the play is on Indiana St. |
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02-01-21 | Austin Peay -6.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | Top | 74-59 | Win | 100 | 1 h 37 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 66-19-3 ATS and the play is on Austin Peay. |
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01-30-21 | South Carolina -4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 81-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
There are 118 games today with lines. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it is just impossible to do them. I need every minute I have just to do this and that is getting up at 5 AM. 759 S. CAROLINA -4 -110
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01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
There are 118 games today with lines. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it is just impossible to do them. I need every minute I have just to do this and that is getting up at 5 AM. 742 PURDUE -2 -114
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01-30-21 | UC-Santa Barbara -9 v. UC-Davis | Top | 89-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
There are 118 games today with lines. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it is just impossible to do them. I need every minute I have just to do this and that is getting up at 5 AM. 725 UC SANTA BARBARA -9.5 -110
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01-30-21 | Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 51-65 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
There are 118 games today with lines. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it is just impossible to do them. I need every minute I have just to do this and that is getting up at 5 AM. 719 VIRGINIA -4.5 -110
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01-30-21 | Florida State -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
There are 118 games today with lines. Sorry for the lack of writeups, but it is just impossible to do them. I need every minute I have just to do this and that is getting up at 5 AM. 665 FLORIDA ST -4 -110
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01-27-21 | Wisconsin -3 v. Maryland | Top | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Wisconsin has almost always been a great defensive team, but they are coming off a game that saw Ohio St. shoot 50.9% against them, so you can bet they are going to be focused for this one at Maryland. They have also been a good 3-pt shooting team, but really shot poorly vs Ohio St connecting on just 7 of 28 at 25%. Maryland is not a good shooting team as the Terps have shot below 45% in 8 of its last 12 contests. They have also out-rebounded their 10 Big-10 opponents 3 times in 10 games. The Badgers suffered a loss at home to Maryland and coming off a loss and having revenge at the same time, should have the Badgers playing like a top 25 team, which they are. Make the play on Wisconsin. |
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01-27-21 | Georgia v. South Carolina -4.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
South Carolina has really struggled with covid-19 and this will be just the Gamecock's 9th game of the season and they have dropped 3 straight. Georgia by contrast is playing in its 15th game of the season and come in at 9-5. Georgia however has built its record on a lot of cupcakes, as they have struggled in SEC play where they are just 2-5.A huge area of concern for the Bulldogs has shown up in SEC play. Their last 5 SEC opponents have combined to shoot 51.9% against them, and it is tough to stay in games without playing any defense. South Carolina finally seems like they have some continuity and should show a lot more consistency especially at home. Make the play on S. Carolina. |
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01-20-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
VCU has a fresh basketball history, while you have to go back to the Bob Lanier era to find the same with St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies however have made a lot of ground in recent years and is off to a 6-1 start to the season. They picked up a big win at Richmond, and their hallmark is a strangling defense that has limited each of its last 3 opponents to 38.5% shooting or less. The Bonnies have all 5 starters back from a year ago, and they have a huge edge off the glass in this one. Make the play on St. Bonaventure. |
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01-19-21 | Miami-FL v. Syracuse -4 | Top | 57-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
Syracuse is off when of its worst games in the Boeheim era. His Syracuse team dropped a 96-76 game to Pittsburgh. The 96 is a season high allowed by Syracuse, and in the 2nd half they gave up 64. Miami is off just the opposite, as they knocked off a then 16 ranked Louisville team. More impressive they did it with just 7 scholarship players available. Let's not lose site of the fact that Miami was 5-6 going into that game, and these teams are on the opposite ends of motivation for this game, and it is on the road for Miami. This is also a team that lost to Florida Gulf Coast as a 19 point favorite. I think practices must have been hell as Boeheim doesn't go for no defensive effort by his team, while this is a huge letdown spot for the canes. Make the play on Syracuse. |
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01-13-21 | Rhode Island -2.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
It has been a difficult situation up in Amherst, Mass. as the Minutemen have only been able to get in 6 games, and 4 of them have come against LaSalle, and Northeastern. UMass has been favored in all 6 games but has managed to win just 3 of them. There is one big glaring issue with this team, they do not defend at all. They are allowing 48% shooting against them, and nearly 38% from deep. Rhode Island comes in at 6-6, but has played a far tougher schedule. The Rams shoot pretty good, and defend even better, and I don't see how UMass can hang around in this one. Make the play on Rhode Island. |
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01-09-21 | Georgetown +10.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
Syracuse like a lot of teams have seen a lot of covid-19 issues. They had 4 games cancelled and this will be just their 2nd game since December 19th. It didn't show early in their last game vs Pittsburgh where the Cuse took an 18 point lead, but blew it, and ended up with a painful loss. It may be a symptom where the legs got tired as it is tough to simulate games. The Cuse was crushed off the glass giving up a ridiculous 20 offensive rebounds, and that is mostly based on a lack of effort. This is not the John Thompson Georgetown teams we remember. The Hoyas are just 3-7 on the season. Perhaps the good news is they shot just 33% against Butler in a 7 point loss, but they dominated the glass 44-32. That is the Cuse weakness, and it is what will help them stay in the game. Complicating the work off the glass is Syracuse has 3 forwards and or centers dealing with covid or injuries. The Hoyas are +64 off the glass on the season. All of the Syracuse losses or ATS losses came in games where they were beaten off the glass. Make the play on Georgetown. |
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01-09-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock -1.5 v. UL - Lafayette | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Ragin Cajuns are off to an 8-2 start, but here they are at home taking points vs Arkansas Little Rock. The Cajuns may appear to be better than they are, as their stats are upside down. Their opponents have out-shot them from the field as well as from beyond the arc. I think they will be out-manned in this one as Arkansas is a sharpshooting team that knocks down a lot of 3's as well. ALR lost here last night by 2, and revenge with the better team is in order. Make the play on Arkansas Little Rock. |
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01-09-21 | Rhode Island +6 v. VCU | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
VCU is off to a 9-2 start and looking at their opponent this afternoon, from a record point of view, this line appears to be light. The Rams are just 5-6 but have played a much better schedule of teams, so the difference between these teams is very small except for the records. The Rams have shot the ball well, but have struggled from deep. VCU has run off 7 straight wins, but there is no "eyeopener" in any of the wins. Rhode Island's 6 losses are all to quality teams, and none of the games were blowouts, and almost all very close. VCU dealing with some covid issues. I like the dog here that I think could steal one. Make the play on Rhode Island. |
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12-31-20 | Michigan v. Maryland +2 | Top | 84-73 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Michigan comes into this game at 7-0, but have not stepped deep into the pool yet. They have been a favorite in every game by -7.5 points or more, and have played just 1 of their 7 games on the road. This will be the second straight on the road vs the best team they have faced this season. Maryland takes care of the ball as well as any team in the country with just 27 total turnovers in their last 4 games, or less than 7 a contest. Michigan in their 2 contests vs Big-10 competition has averaged 15.5 turnovers a game, so there is significant hidden value in this game. Michigan comes into this game having dominated off the glass, as they have out-rebounded all 7 teams on their schedule. The Terps are capable of rebounding with Michigan as they are +4 in rebounding margin on the season themselves. As Maryland fans would say "Fear the Turtle." Make the play on Maryland. |
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12-29-20 | South Florida v. Memphis -9 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Memphis brought back 4 starters, and in addition Coach Hardaway finally unveiled Evansville transfer DeAndre Williams. He had an impressive debut with 13 points 9 rebounds 3 assists 3 steals and a block. He is a high energy player, and going forward he will help Memphis who is just 5-4 and have dramatically under-achieved. Memphis is a much better shooting team than they have shown, and have turned the ball over far too often. I think the last loss to Tulsa in a game they controlled until Tulsa went on an 18-2 run and stole the win. S. Florida has started well, but against strong defensive teams they have shot poorly and lost all 3. Memphis is strong on the defensive end, and while the Bulls have relied on rebounding, Memphis is dominating off the glass having a 62 rebound advantage over its last 4 games, or 15.5 per contest. This match up is a good one for Memphis, and off a painful loss, I look for them to come out and deliver their "A" game. Make the play on Memphis. |
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12-28-20 | Northern Arizona +41.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This line is way over the top. Gonzaga just got through torturing Virginia, so the expectation here is they will win by a country mile. The Zags shot 60.3% vs Virginia and Kispert hit 9 three's in that game. Northern Arizona is awful, and won't be competitive, but what they do well is slow the game to a crawl almost at the rate of the old Princeton teams. Their games average just 106 total shots, so Gonzaga is going to have to shoot at an extreme level to win by over 40, and with garbage time aplenty here, and what will likely be a completely disinterested Gonzaga team after playing a perfect game vs Virginia is not likely. Make the play on N. Arizona. |
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12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
Drake has shot the ball exceptionally well and has opened the season at 9-0. The Bulldogs have defended well also as they are allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% against them. Indiana St. has started the season 3-2 and their stats are not nearly as impressive. Drake however has faced some real creampuffs and have been a 9 point favorite in all but one game (-6.5). Indiana St. has lost to St. Louis and Purdue, and the overall stats here are very misleading. Teams that are perfect straight up and ATS through 9 games, cover just 38% of the time. Indiana St. is also 32-15 ATS off of a win as a favorite, where they failed to cover.I like Indiana St. in this one. |
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12-23-20 | Western Illinois v. DePaul -15.5 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
It has been a long road for the DePaul Blue Demons as covid-19 has really kept this team off the court. This will be their first game of the season while other teams around the country have logged 10 games in some cases already. DePaul has had 10 games postponed or cancelled due to covid-19. W. Illinois is off to a 2-4 start, 1-4 vs division-1 opponents, and has had enormous problems finding the rim. The Leathernecks are bankrupt of quality experience as they returned no starters from last season. While DePaul is an unknown as this season goes, they have a 1st team pre-season choice in Charlie Moore and just much better athletes across the court. This should be a 20+ point win for the Demons. Make the play on DePaul. |
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12-22-20 | Northern Illinois +15.5 v. Toledo | Top | 55-78 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
It has been a great start for the Toledo Rockets as they are 6-3 to start the season. They have lost to Bradley by just 2 and Xavier just 3, and were blown out by Michigan by 20. All 3 losses came on the road. Northern Illinois finally got in the win column last time out, and stand at 1-5, and they have yet to cover a game as they enter play at 0-6 ATS. That sets this game up in a strong situation as we have a team off their first win, but has yet to cover in 6 straight games. These games have a history of going 112-65 ATS. Make the play on N. Illinois. |
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12-22-20 | Ohio v. Akron +2 | Top | 70-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
The Ohio,U. Bobcats are 4-2 on the season, but the competition has been very marginal. The same can be said for Akron who is 2-1 but both wins are against cupcakes. The stats here provide a guess for odds maker algorithms because there is really no valid input to consider, that makes any sense. Akron has been consistently solid in the MAC Conference and has certainly owned Ohio, U. as they are 18-6 SU in the last 24 meetings. This comes down to that history and my preseason power rankings that show that Akron is the better team coming into the season and the line sure isn't saying that. Make the plaay on Akron. |
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12-21-20 | VMI v. George Mason -10.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
VMI has been quite active as they already have 8 games under their belt. The record is 5-3 which looks pretty good until you get inside the numbers. All 5 wins have come against teams below the division-1 level, while all 3 losses have come vs division-1 competition. The difference in the overall stats stands out, so the line here is based on overall performance, and most of it is vs cupcake competition, the numbers look a lot different when they have faced reasonable competition. This will also be their 4th game in just 8 days, and all 3 losses have come on the road by an average of 13ppg. George Mason has not been nearly as active with just 2 games under its belt, and a 1-1 record. Coach Dave Paulsen has returned all 5 starters from a year ago. Coach Earl is just 45-62 ATS at VMI as a dog. I see a good amount of statistical value in this contest when you balance out the numbers. Make the play on George Mason. |
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12-18-20 | Davidson +2.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
When Davidson moved from a low-major to a mid-major most thought the team would not maintain a competitive status, but they have certainly been pretty good. The hallmark of this team has always been to take care of the ball, and so far on the season they have turned the ball over fewer than 12 times a contest. Rhode Island has long struggled against good ball handling teams as their built to turn teams over, where they can get some easy buckets. Rhode Island is just 43-68 ATS vs a team that turns the ball over fewer than 12 times a game, and I see that as the difference maker here in an otherwise toss-up game. Make the play on Davidson. |
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12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington -5.5 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
William & Mary has had a difficult time playing games. They didn't open until November 28th, and lost by 8 to Old Dominion. This will be their first game since after a long 15 day layoff. George Washington has started slow at 1-4, but do have 4 returning starters. William & Mary had covid issues, and that along with just 1 returning starter is going to set this team back early in the season. It is hard to find continuity with players missing practice, especially with a very inexperienced team. It showed in their opener where they committed 15 turnovers, and it is hard to see them improving on that here. William & Mary going back to last season has just 1 win in its last 10 games. Make the play on George Washington. |
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12-11-20 | Marquette v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 101 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Marquette is off to a 4-1 start and the win vs Wisconsin was impressive. They played their best game of the season and Wisconsin their worst, and snuck away with a 2 point win. There is no doubt that game has great influence on the line here vs UCLA. Mick Cronin is finally getting the type of team he likes, rugged and physical and he returned all 5 starters from a year ago. They got aa quick wake up call in their opener against San Diego St. and have come back strong winning 4 straight. They have held their last 3 opponents in the 50s a trade mark of a Cronin coached team. Marquette will be on the road with a young team for the first time this season, and I think UCLA wins by 10 or more here. Make the play on UCLA. |
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12-08-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Dayton -11 | Top | 60-66 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
The Dayton Flyers caught a bad break last season. They had the best year in school history, and were certainly a National Championship caliber team, but due to covid-19, that abruptly ended the season, they never had a chance to get there. They enter this game at 1-1 on the season, off a heartbreaking 2 point loss vs SMU. It was a game they won statistically but were done in by 19 turnovers. The Norse are 2-1, but have shot the ball poorly, and with just 1 returning starter, it is difficult to see where the points are going to come from, and depth is an issue. They are also shooting a horrific 57% from the free throw line and had 21 turnovers in their most recent game vs UT Chattanooga. There are a lot of shortcomings on this team, that will be exploited by Dayton, who is hungry coming off a loss. Make the play on Dayton. |
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12-08-20 | Purdue -2 v. Miami-FL | Top | 54-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Miami, Fla. has started the season at 3-0 but this team has accumulated numerous injuries already, most notably All-ACC preseason selection Chris Lykes, who suffered an ankle injury in Miami's win last Friday against Stetson. Miami had already lost guard Earl Timberlake (ankle) for three to five weeks and forward Matt Cross left the game with four minutes to go due to a foot injury.That leaves Miami missing 8 scholarship players for this game. Miami has just 3 available guards, and Purdue is shooting 43.6% from deep on the season, a clear advantage here to the Boilermakers.Purdue is a deep team that features 6 players averaging double-digit points, and should wear down an injury plagued Miami team. Make the play on Purdue. |
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12-04-20 | Wisconsin -4 v. Marquette | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This line makes absolutely no sense. Wisconsin is deservedly the #4 team in the country. They are 3-0 and with covid being so disruptive, what is more important is how cohesive the unit is. Wisconsin has all 5 starters back from a team that won the regular season Big-10 Title a year ago. Home court with no fans has no value, so the odds makers are basically this is a pick 'em game. I can't agree with that. Marquette lost one of the most prolific scorers in the country in Marcus Howard who averaged 27.8ppg,and finished his career #21 on the all-time scoring list. Moreover Marquette lost 4 of their top 6 players from a year ago, and even with Howard they lost to Wisconsin 77-61 last year. Not really anything else needs to be said. I see Wisconsin with a double-digit win here. Make the play on Wisconsin. |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut v. USC +1.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The UConn Huskies will face a big test as they take on the USC Trojans tonight at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville,CT. The Trojans are led by freshman Evan Mobley, who has proven to be worthy of his projection as a high lottery pick in the NBA draft. The 7-footer has dominated so far as USC is off to a 3-0 start. He starts along side of his brother Isaiah Mobley, who recorded his own double-double (11 points and 11 boards) last time out. USC held a strong BYU offense to 27.5% in an impressive blowout win. The Huskies have an emerging star of their own in James Bouknight (19.0 ppg, 6.0 rebounds), and for once, a deep roster with a lot of versatile parts. The Huskies almost blew a 19 point lead vs Hartford last time out, and while Coach Dan Hurley has made inroads on returning the talent level back to where it was under Jim Calhoun, they are still green and growing. It might be too much to ask tonight, but the Huskies are heading in the right direction, and are going to be over-matched in the paint, and under-sized, which should prove to be decisive. Make the play on USC. |
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12-02-20 | Seton Hall v. Rhode Island +2.5 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Seton Hall opened their season with a tough 71-70 loss to Louisville but rebounded vs Iona to come into this game off their first win of the season. Unfortunately for Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard, the Pirates have just 9 healthy scholarship players available, and it makes it tough to get things done in practice, and most of the learning is taking place in games.Rhode Island come in off a 2-2 split of 4 games played at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. They came up just short off a ranked Arizona St. team, beat San Francisco by 13 a team that beat then #4 Virginia and lost a close one to BC. They have proven to be highly competitive against some good teams, and have played consistently well in the 4 games.Fatts Russell is averaging a team-leading 17.8 points a game, and the Rams have had consistent scoring with from all their players. I like Rhode Island in a mild upset in this one. |
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12-01-20 | UNLV v. Alabama -10 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle with UNLV tonight. This Tournament has been moved to other sites due to covid-19, and Alabama will be the home squad in this one. UNLV is 0-2 on the season and in their last game vs North Carolina they led 13-0 and appeared to be prime to produce an upset, but the wheels came off and were out-scored 78-38 the rest of the way. While I liked the match up against Alabama against Stanford, I like the match up for this one. Alabama has a much better team than they showed vs an under the radar Stanford team, and clearly are the better team in this contest. Make the play on Alabama. |
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11-30-20 | Stanford +2 v. Alabama | Top | 82-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The Stanford Cardinal and the Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle at the Harrah's Cherokee Center in Ashville,NC. Alabama has had some success as a program over the years, but the recent history shows a total of just 2 NCAA Tournament appearances in the last 13 years. The Tide won its opener 81-57 vs Jacksonville St. but it wasn't s easy as the final score. They had a 21-4 run that essentially put the game away but th rest of the game was pretty even. The Cardinal saw their season opener fall victim to covid-19, but Stanford has 5 of its top 6 scorers returning. The freshman class is a strong one anchored by 6-foot-8 forward Ziaire Williams, who should make an immediate impact.Stanford won 20 games a year ago, an started the season 7-0 and 15-2, and have almost all those pieces returning, and an infusion of new talent. Alabama shot just 39% vs Jacksonville St. and will have to do a lot better to win here.Make the play on Stanford. |
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11-29-20 | Hofstra v. Rutgers -13.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
No write ups today Th play is on Rutgers |
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03-11-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 130 | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 63-31 ATS (which is also 37-14 ATS in March games) to the under. I also see a couple points of line value here. Make the play on the under. |
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03-11-20 | Georgia v. Ole Miss UNDER 144 | Top | 81-63 | Push | 0 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This game fits a totals situation that is 81-47 ATS, and the play is on the under. |
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03-11-20 | Utah v. Oregon State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Most of the NCAA Conference Tournaments are played at a neutral site. There are 2 things at work here, that assist the total going under. First there are the nerves that have to be settled down, and 2nd a neutral court means that neither team has a lot of experience shooting in a background that they are not accustomed to. When you add to the mix that the total isn't exceedingly low, and the favorite is a low volume shooting team (55 shots a game or fewer), we have all the elements in play to put our thumbs on the scales and have an advantage over the odds-makers. This can be depicted like this: 1) Neutral court 2) Conference tournament 3) True favorite of -3 or more 4) total is 129 or higher 5) Favorite averages 55 shots per game or fewer. site = neutral and total >= 129 and tA(FGA) |
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03-10-20 | Alabama State +10 v. Southern | Top | 53-67 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Alabama St. has played poorly down the stretch losing their last 6 games and closed the regular season at 8-23. Southern closed the season on fire with 7 straight wins and covers to finish 16-15. That has changed perception here in a huge way. These teams met just 2 weeks ago with Alabama St. a 1 point favorite. Alabama St. was +4 at Southern U. in the 1st meeting, and now the line -9.5/-10 for Southern U. It all has to do with the recent streaks, and odds-makers knowing which team is desired here. A road dog revenging a home favorite loss and is off 2 straight 10+ point conference losses are 104-70-10 ATS. Line is off and the situation is positive. Make the play on Alabama St. |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
We have not seen a North Carolina team struggle like this one in quite a few years, but here they are in the ACC Tournament as a favorite against a winning team in Virginia Tech. They will be the team struggling a lot less here as the Hokies are just 2-10 in their last 12 games after a 14-5 start. Carolina meanwhile has gotten healthier and the only setback in their last 4 games has been vs Duke. The huge advantage in this game will be off the glass. The Hokies have been out-rebounded by 7.25 rebounds a game in those last 12, while Carolina is +6 in their last 13. Carolina has just 26 turnovers in their last 3, to 41 for Tech, and those are 2 areas where games are decided. Tech gets to the line just 13 times a game on the season to 21 for Carolina. Roy Williams is 79-49 ATS at NC off a loss. Make the play on North Carolina. |
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03-10-20 | Manhattan v. Fairfield UNDER 114.5 | Top | 61-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
The Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament gets underway today as Fairfield at 12-19 takes on a 12-17 Manhattan team. Fairfield is a major slow-down team and over their last 3 games they have attempted just 44.5 shots per game. This has gone on for quite some time at Fairfield as the Stags own a 167-209-4 O/U mark in their last 380 games played, and this year they are 7-24 O/U (2-14 O/U in their last 16). Both of these teams shoot under 40% on the season. bettors hate playing under on low totals, but the sharp action is all over the under, as this game`s total has dropped despite 65% of the public being on the over. I also have a game indicator for the first round of a conference tournament where the butterflies kick in and 2 losing teams to a very low total which is 25-4 to the under. (not a large sample size), but it fits the expectation of this game. Make the play on the under.
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03-09-20 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 151.5 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
March Madness has begun as Conference Tournaments have already seen plenty of upsets. The neutral court sometimes creates problems for a team offensively as they have a different shooting background and in many cases that takes time for the players to get used to. Higher scoring teams off a pair of over games to help elevate the total seem to be an area of impact for these games. Let's take a look:
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03-03-20 | Albany v. Vermont UNDER 131.5 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
The Vermont program gas been very consistently good over the years. They have posted 20+ wins for 12 straight years. They have played to a lower posted total on average than any of the previous 6 years. They are scoring and allowing fewer points than any of the precious 5 seasons. The defense is allowing 59.2ppg, while the offense is at just 71.1ppg, the lowest mark in 6 yrs. Albany is a slow-down team that is 64-37 to the under in its last 101 games (20-7 this year). I expect this game to play in the 120s, or less. make the play on the under. |
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03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina St. is just 11-16 on the season, but it is a whole lot worse than that. The 11 wins have come against 2 teams not even in Division-2, and the 9 other wins have come against teams that have a combined 71-182 record on the season. The 9 wins also include no team with even a .500 record, and 6 that have lost 20 or more games. This team has averaged beating some horrible teams and has had no success otherwise. NC A&T has a marginal winning record on the season and if they were to beat them, it would be the best team they have beaten all season. NC A$T is also in a very favorable 170-103 ATS situation here. Make the play on BC A&T. |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
It is always tough playing on the road in any sport. It is a tough pill to swallow for a team to hut the road for 2 straight games as a favorite and come back home empty. These teams are generally welcomed home to big crowds, and a lot of energy to redeem the road losses. Thus will be the case for Duke tonight and here is how it all looks: |
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02-29-20 | Stony Brook v. Albany UNDER 137 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Albany has been 64-35 ATS to the under over its last 99 games, and I see some line value here as well. Make the play on the under. |
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02-29-20 | North Dakota v. South Dakota OVER 154 | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
South Dakota is one of the top shooting teams in the country on their home floor as they are connecting on 53% for the season. They are also shooting 43.1% from 3 on home hardwood. North Dakota plays spotty defense, especially on the road so the home team here is going to have a lot of open and easy looks. South Dakota is averaging 86ppg at home on the season. South Dakota has been 18-8-1 ATS to the over on the season. Moreover this N. Dakota team is 66-38-1 ATS to the over in their last 105 road games. (`12-4 ATS this year). Make the play on the over. |
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02-29-20 | James Madison v. Hofstra -12 | Top | 81-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Hofstra continues to ride under the radar as this school gets very little ink. They are 21-8 ATS on the season, and that has them at 49-22 ATS in their last 71 games. James Madison at 9-19 on the season will finish with a losing record for the 4th straight season. This team has totally lost all its confidence and will as they own a 2-15 SU mark in their last 17 games where they are 3-13-1 ATS. They are also 1-17-1 ATS in their 19 losses this year. Make the play on Hofstra. |
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02-29-20 | Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 155 | Top | 86-73 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
A high level MAC Conference game has Akron taking on Buffalo. The Bulls were a Cinderella type team a year ago, but lost a lot of firepower. They are still scoring because of a fast pace attack but the shooting percentages are considerably down from a year ago. Akron is 21-7 and in a similar boat, as they like to run as well, but are not a very efficient offense. Both these teams defend very well. Akron has been a fool's gold team as they tend to score a lot of points, but never reach the potential set by the odds-makers. Akron is 62-34-1 ATS to the under in its last 97 games, and their last 8 have played under the total, none reaching the level here to go over. Make the play on the under. |
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02-29-20 | Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The Kansas Jayhawks are a successful team every year because they have the ability and willingness to defend. This allows this team to win on the road and it has shown up in the scores of their road games. Over their last 99 road games they are 66-29-4 ATS to the under. They have not allowed any team to score more than 63 points against them on the road this season, leading to a 10-0 ATS mark to the under on the road. Additionally, the Kansas offense averages 79ppg on the season at home and just 67.8ppg on the road. This has led to 21ppg less scoring on the road. Kansas St. allows just 61.6pph at home on the season. Make the play on the under. |
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02-26-20 | Siena -2.5 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 84-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Momentum can be a plus or a negative depending on the sport and situation. Today in the newsletter we will look at the positive side of momentum when ot is applied to college basketball. We like the look of a streaking team taking to the road as a pick or favorite, after having won their last 3 games at least. This rings truest when we have a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of greater than .500 and less than .600. That means the 3 wins has generally turned a team from mediocre to marginally good. When their opponent is a sub .500 squad things go very well. Let's outline our parameters: |
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02-25-20 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The NCAA Tournament is not in the cards for either Clemson or Georgia Tech. tech has shown improvement late in the season going 5-3 in its last 8 and with a win at home can get to .500. They have beaten Louisville, Virginia Tech, and NC State in their last 3 home conference games. Clemson is not a good shooting team, but they have won 3 straight by shooting 56.5% on average over the 3 games. This from a team that was shooting 41% before their last 3. Shooting variance has made this line short of where it should be and that recency bias comes into play tonight. make the play on Georgia Tech. |
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02-25-20 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Things have not been the same for this Alabama team as they seem to be tiring with the rigors of conference play. They are just 3-5 in their last 8. They continue to play at a very high pace, but the defense has broken down. They are allowing an insane 86ppg on the road this season, and overall in their last 4 games allowing 91.3ppg. Those numbers make it tough to win. Miss St. is 45-7 SU at home in its last 52 games. They have won their last 6 here by a total of 92 points or by 15.3ppg. Make the play on Miss St. |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for Michigan St. The Spartans started the season ranked as the top team in the country but are just 18-9. They are however 53-22-1 ATS in their last 76 home games.(33-11-1 ATS in conference games). They have lost 2 home games in a row for the first time since 2013, and I expect they will come out with all guns blazing for this one. Iowa is just 1-12 SU here and 8 of the losses have come by double-digits. Make the play on Michigan St. |
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02-23-20 | South Dakota v. South Dakota State -5 | Top | 80-85 | Push | 0 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
It's hard to ignore what this team has done at home where they are 75-34 ATS. Make the play on S. Dakota St. |
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02-23-20 | Siena -4 v. Fairfield | Top | 62-59 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
The Fairfield Stags just don't shoot the ball well at all, and seem to be getting worse. They are connecting on just 194-533 in their last 10 games at a woeful 36.4%. Siena has turned their season around having gone 7-1 in their last 8 games, and the Saints are shooting 47.8% over the 8 games. Siena is in a 168-101 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Siena. |
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02-23-20 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
The Evansville Purple Aces have some shocking details to their season. This is a team that beat Kentucky and Murray St. and lost by just 2 points at home to SMU. Shockingly they are 0-15 SU since. Things have been more favorable of late as they have been knocking on the door with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 games. Indiana St. is far from being a road warrior where they are an ugly 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS, and were beaten in their only game this season as a road favorite. Streak comes to a halt today, make the play on Evansville. |
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02-22-20 | Gonzaga -4.5 v. BYU | Top | 78-91 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The BYU Cougars are 22-7 on the season, and have their biggest game of the season tonight vs Gonzaga. The Zags are once again having a brilliant season at 27-1. This however has been a tricky spot over the years for BYU who is now 30-68-1 ATS off a win and the next game has them posted at no more than a -2.5 point favorite. (4-11-1 ATS vs Gonzaga in this spot). The last 22 meetings between these teams shows BYU is 4-18 SU and 5-15-2 ATS. (0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS the last 6 at BYU). Gonzaga is also 33-20-1 ATS on the road if they are not favored by more than 5.5 points. (16-5-1 ATS since 2012). Make the play on Gonzaga. team=BYU and p:W and line>=-2.5SU:25-74 (-6.51, 25.3%) ATS:30-68-1 (-3.03, 30.6%) avg line: 3.5
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02-22-20 | Kennesaw State v. Jacksonville -15.5 | Top | 55-69 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Kennesaw St. has been the worst team in college basketball for the past 2 years. They are just 2-25 SU this year and are a woeful 24-50-1 ATS in their last 75 lined games. (16-40-1 ATS if taking 21 or fewer points). I have had a lot of success playing against this team. Make the play on Jacksonville. |
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02-22-20 | LSU v. South Carolina OVER 155 | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
LSU is now 53-26-2 ATS to the over in its last 81 road games. That includes 7-1 this season where their road games have averaged 164.3ppg. Make the play on the over. |
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02-22-20 | Stetson +17 v. Liberty | Top | 49-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Liberty is 25-3 on the season and may be the worst team with such a gaudy record in college basketball history. They are vastly over-rated and their 4-10 ATS mark in their last 14 certainly points in that direction. One of those losses came against Stetson this season. Stetson is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games. Stetson has not lost a game by this point spread margin since early December. The last meeting saw just 93 points scored, so a huge point spread here which is 14% of the game total will make things difficult for Liberty to get the cover. Make the play on Stetson. |
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02-22-20 | William & Mary -2.5 v. James Madison | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
James Madison has a long track record as being the worst home team in college basketball as they are now 52-91-2 ATS on home hardwood. William & Mary is looking for their 20th win of the season, and they certainly have strong prospects of getting it here. Make the play on William & Mary. |
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02-22-20 | Massachusetts v. Fordham UNDER 124.5 | Top | 57-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Trying to speed this Fordham team up at home is an improbable task. The Rams play great defense, and their methodical style, leads to low possession ugly games. The Rams are 90-69-5 to the under here, including 65-39-5 to the under most recently, and 11-3-1 this season. UMass is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 overall. Make the play on the under. |
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02-22-20 | Michigan v. Purdue -3 | Top | 71-63 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Michigan has been playing well of late as the Wolverines are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 contests. They will be heading into a beehive this afternoon where they will be taking on a Purdue team that is 54-27-2 ATS in its last 83 at home. Purdue failed to cover their last home game, and the Boilermakers have not failed to cover 2 in a row at home in over 2 years covering 29 games, and are now 8-0 ATS at home over the period if they failed to cover their last home game. Make the play on Purdue. |
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02-21-20 | Yale -11 v. Cornell | Top | 81-80 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Yale has become one of the best Ivy League teams in the past few years, and once again the Bull Dogs are knocking on the Ivy League Championship door. Since James Jines took over this program he has done a great job preparing his team, especially when they are on extended rest. (More than 4 days). That sets up this situation: team=YALE and rest>4 and A and season>2007 and line |
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02-20-20 | Troy State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 60-90 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina and Troy both like to push the tempo and I expect these teams are going to put up some points tonight. Coastal Carolina is 16-9 to the over on the season and has allowed 75+ points in 8 straight games and 10 out of 11. Troy has allowed 76ppg in their last 12. A road team off of 3 straight losses by 6 or fewer points, facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 80+ are 14-0-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over. |
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02-20-20 | North Florida +10 v. Liberty | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
N. Florida has a misleading record coming into this contest, as does Liberty. North Florida has had games with Florida, Iowa, Florida St., Syracuse, Dayton, and Creighton. They are 18-10 on the season, but 18-4 if you take out the power conference teams. Liberty is 24-3 on the season, and has played a cupcake schedule. The Liberty out-of-conference schedule is ranked #308 in the country, compared to N. Florida at #21. These teams are a lot closer than this exaggerated line because of the 24-3 record. Remember, one of those 3 losses came against this North Florida team. North Florida is 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13. Make the play on N. Florida. |
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02-20-20 | Kennesaw State v. North Alabama -13 | Top | 46-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Kennesaw St. is 30-196 SU on the road since 2006 and getting worse as they are 0-31 SU in their last 31 and own a 1-24 record overall this season. They have lost on the road this season by an average margin of 27ppg. They own a 1-9 ATS mark if they are a dog of fewer than 25 points. N. Alabama won by 20 at Kennesaw St. already this year. Can't ignore the woeful track record of Kennesaw St. Make the play on Northern Alabama. |
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02-19-20 | Wyoming +21 v. Utah State | Top | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Wyoming is just 6-20 on the season so they have been getting a lot of points. They have done a great job of finding a way to habg around when getting a bundle as they are 3-0 ATS taking 17 or more points on the season with the wins coming vs San Diego St., Colorado, and Boise St. The Cowboys are also in a situation that is 68-38-2 ATS. Make the play on Wyoming. |
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02-19-20 | TCU v. Texas -1.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
A pair of 14-11 teams will hit the floor tonight as TCU plays at Texas. It has been a struggle for each of these teams of late as TCU is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and Texas just 2-7 min its last 9. Texas did record a 1 point win at TCU earlier in the season. The TCU struggles are nothing new as this team is 16-106 SU in their lat 122 conference road games and just 51-69-2 ATS. They have held their own as a big conference dog where they are 21-19 ATS taking 13.5 or more points but just 30-50-2 ATS otherwise. Overall the Horned Frogs are just 18-36-2 ATS in their last 56 road games. (7-25-2 ATS from +1.5 to +11). Make the play on Texas. |
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02-19-20 | UCF +11 v. Cincinnati | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Cincinnati has played themselves right to the top of the AAC Standings and over their last 8 games has just 1 loss a 1 point heart breaker at Connecticut. The Bearcats however have been winning a lot of close games as the 7 wins show 5 with a margin of 7 points or fewer. C. Florida is in a good spot here as a team playing as a road dog of 10 or more that is off a home loss of 15+ points as a favorite are 33-14 ATS vs a team off a road win. Make the play on Central Florida. |
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02-19-20 | Samford v. Mercer OVER 149 | Top | 66-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Samford has allowed 81ppg in their last 69 games on the road. That has led them to a 46-20 mark to the over. Make the play on the over. |
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02-19-20 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro -9 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
The Wofford Terriers have really been struggling as they have a 16-11 overall record but have dropped 3 straight, all as a home favorite of -6.5 points or more. They are just the 3rd team this decade to lose 3 straight at home as a -6 or more favorite in each. They are the first to do so this late in the season. NC Greensboro is on a 9-1 run and is 21-6 overall. They have a scoring margin on the season of +14. (+20 in their 21 wins). They own 16 double-digit wins on the season. (just 5 teams have more). Make the play on NC Greensboro. |
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02-18-20 | Creighton +3 v. Marquette | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Creighton fits a rather strong situation in this game that is 100-64-3 ATS. It plays on "toss up" games with a line of +3/to -3 when the road team is off a 20+ point conference win, and both teams are strong (.600 to .800): A and line = -3 and p:CW and p:margin >= 20 and WP >= 60 and WP = 60 and o:WP
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02-18-20 | Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 60-43 to the under. Make the play on the under. |
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02-18-20 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 135 | Top | 47-65 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
W. Virginia has shot the ball woefully bad in their last 3 games at 62-191. That is just 32.5% from the field. Kansas and Baylor may have played a role in some of that a pair of elite defensive teams. What it has done is set them up in this game for a strong over situation. Home teams that have shot 35% or less in at least 3 straight games are 65-26-3 to the over if the posted total is fewer than 141 points. Make the play on the over. |
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02-16-20 | Missouri State v. Indiana State OVER 134 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 142-89-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.A and total < 140 and p:CW and p:margin >= 20 and op:AL and op:margin
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02-16-20 | San Diego State v. Boise State +6 | Top | 72-55 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Diego St. has run the table at 25-0 on the season. They have had some close calls on the road against some good teams, and will be challenged today bs a Boise St. team that is on the improve at 6-1 over their last 7 games, with some quality wins in the mix. They have 4 single-digit wins in their 4 toughest road games. The Broncos are 11-1 SU an home on the season, and 11-1 ATS, in their last 12 home games. Upset alert! Make the play on Boise St. |
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02-16-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State -11.5 | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
This is like a broken record, but I have been playing S. Dakota St. at home for a longtime as the Jackrabbits own a 74-34-1 ATS mark at home over its last 109 played here. Make the play on S. Dakota St. |
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02-16-20 | Duquesne v. Fordham UNDER 122.5 | Top | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The Fordham Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the country shooting at just 38% for the season. That has been even worse in conference games where they are shooting a dreadful 36.6%. Their slowdown methodical pace has led to just 52.6ppg. This has been going on for awhile and at home the Rams are now 64-39-5 to the under in their last 108 on home hardwood. The 1st meeting this season saw just 114 total points scored, and not much has changed. Make the play on the under. |
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02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
The Big-10 has as many as 11 teams trying to punch a ticket to The Big Dance. This has been a war every night and the home team has held a 50-40 ATS edge thus far. Iowa has come up on the short end of conference road games where they are just 1-5 SU on the season, winning only at Northwestern. This has been a continuing issue for the Hawkeyes who are now 9-25 SU on the road and 8-26 ATS the last 4 year in conference play. Overall the Golden Gophers are now 24-5 SU and 17-11 ATS at home the last 2 years. Minnesota has won 5 of the last 6 played here. Make the play on Minnesota. |
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02-15-20 | Colorado v. Oregon State UNDER 136 | Top | 69-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Colorado is coming into this game off a loss at Oregon, and will be hungry to overturn the bad feeling. that game played in the 120s and I would expect a similar path for this game. Colorado has an elongated track record of getting after it on the road on the defensive end where their last 104 road games have produced a 68-36 mark to the under (6-1 this year). That mark in conference games is 53-27 to the under. Oregon St. has gone 6 straight games without producing total points that would go over this total. Make the play on the under. |
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02-15-20 | Columbia +14.5 v. Harvard | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Ivy league games can be tricky and they have left behind a blueprint of results. The conference games are Friday and Saturday for the most part and the stronger teams tend to be a lot better on extended rest and preparation in the Friday game as opposed to the Saturday games played with 0 rest. Big favorites tend to struggle in the Saturday games. make the play on Columbia (also have a 1-23 ATS subset against Harvard) |
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02-15-20 | Yale -3.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 61-69 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Yale gas dominated the Ivy League in terms of ATS prowess as the Bull Dogs are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 Ivy contests. I also have them in a 30-1-1 ATS spot tonight. make the play on Yale. |
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02-15-20 | Maryland v. Michigan State -6.5 | Top | 67-60 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
It certainly has been a disappointing season for Michigan St. who began it all as the #1 ranked team in the country. It certainly has not changed their home dominance that has been well established. The Spartans are 61-6 SU and 48-17-1 ATS in their last 66 home games. That goes to 42-3 SU and 34-10-1 ATS if they are off of a win(7-1 ATS this year). Make the play on Michigan St. |
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02-15-20 | West Virginia +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
There has been a lot of #1 teams this season, and the flavor of the day is Baylor who sits as the top ranked team of the country. The Bears own a 22-1 record on the season and will be put to the test against 18-6 W. Virginia. A team needs to play a tough physical brand of basketball to compete with Baylor and that is exactly what the Mountaineers bring to the table. Baylor often wins ugly and their largest margin in their last 3 games has been 8 points. Mounties will be all in here trying to knock off the #1 team in the nation and bring the physicality to keep them in this one to the wire. Make the play on W. Virginia. |