By Ron Marmalefsky
This inaugural edition for the 2022 Pro Football Season takes a look at each team and offers up one concern going into 2022. What one area could cause each team to fall short of expectations? I’ll start with the AFC, going Division by Division.
Buffalo: CB play. Finding a weakness for the Bills is not easy, and last year they allowed just a 56% completion rate, lowest in the NFL. Still, there’s been some player turnover and injuries in the secondary and at least one rookie will be starting at CB in the season opener. It’s my primary watch area for the presumed favorite to win the AFC.
Miami: Scheme and coaching transformation. New Coach Mike McDaniel is growing on me, but putting in a completely new offensive scheme with six or seven new offensive starters may take time. It’s also possible there will be regression defensively without Brian Flores in the building, and maybe some tweaks in the defensive approach. If Miami stumbles, that could be why.
New England: Team speed. The Patriots have long been deficient in this area, with WR speed completely lacking and the back seven on defense relying on smarts and scheme more than quickness. Today’s football is played faster, and the team was exposed in the playoff loss against Buffalo. Adding speed without talent won’t work, and New England’s roster shows this.
New York Jets: The Offensive line/Tight End dynamic. Truthfully, much more needs fixing, but the draft added four outstanding prospects in other areas. As I’ve said for years, young QB’s need a stout OL and a tall, pass-catching target at TE to make growth possible. The Jets have one of the worse OL’s and limited TE resources. Zach Wilson will be held back by this.
Baltimore: Winning via the pass. Lamar Jackson is a special talent, but he’s been criticized for his inability to lead the team to more playoff victories. In several playoff games the Ravens fell behind (vs. quality teams) and were unable to rally. To take the next step, the Ravens must find a way to improve their pass attack, especially vs. the better teams on their schedule.
Cincinnati: An unforgiving schedule. Yes, most readers would have guessed that I would have discussed offensive line protection, but a bigger issue in my eyes are the ebbs and flows of the 2022 schedule, something this organization is not accustomed to facing. In a nutshell, they have the 1st place schedule, four of six road games to start the season, and five prime time games, three of which are Divisional road games. Short weeks of preparation await the Bengals in 2022.
Cleveland: Dealing with outside noise. Other than at QB, it’s hard to find a weak link on the team. But the whole Watson drama will be played out all season long, especially on the road. Three times Cleveland will play back-to-back road games. Each set features a difficult 2nd road opponent. In addition, two of those sets of road games come after Watson has been reinstated, beginning with his return to Houston on 12/4. Blocking out the noise may be easier said than done.
Pittsburgh: The offensive line. I’ve said this to others; Big Ben does not get enough credit for what he accomplished despite playing behind four new OL in 2020 and 2021, many of whom were lower rated draftees and or past their prime veterans. Moving to a more mobile QB is the way to go in today’s NFL, so maybe the effect is minimized, but it still looks like Pittsburgh QB’s will not have as much time to throw downfield as will many or most other teams.
Houston: The coaching turntable. We know that expectations are not high for the team, but first David Culley and now Lovie Smith? I don’t see Smith as the long-term solution so somewhere down the road another new staff will assume control.
Indy: Performance in the red zone. This one might be a stretch, but Matt Ryan’s red zone performance ebbed and flowed in Atlanta. Given Indy’s propensity to play a passive pass defense scheme, Indy needs to finish drives to prevent late losses.
Jacksonville: QB Lawrence not yet ready for prime time. It was good that Lawrence had a rookie season where he could learn on the field, but like Peyton Manning, that 1st year was full of turnovers. Expectations are raised now with a better roster and much better coaching, but if the Jags stumble in 2022 it could be because their QB needs more time to develop.
Tennessee: Potential pass rush regression with the injury to Harold Landry. No one area is deficient on Tennessee, although they are weaker at WR and have questions about RB Henry’s usage coming off a major injury. Tennessee’s rise to the #1 seed was partly due to a rise in sack production, from 19 to 44. I expect regression in 2022.
Denver: Defensive regression. I have often discussed the shortfalls of Vic Fangio as a Head Coach, but his defensive expertise kept Denver relevant. Obviously, Russell Wilson might jump start the offense. But there’s no Von Miller, and Denver’s sack production fell noticeably after he left during the 2021 season. If Denver falls short of their new, lofty expectations, it might be due to what’s missing (players and coaches) on the defensive side of the ball.
Kansas City: Missing WR Hill and DB Mathieu. I love the trade of Tyreek Hill for the long-term implications, but for 2022 Hill’s instant impact may be hard to duplicate. As for Mathieu, you can’t really teach anticipation, and Mathieu had that big-time.
Las Vegas: The offensive line. Go ahead, name more than one starter on the OL without looking! Coaching and QB experience might be enough to make this issue a bit less critical, but at the very least I expect the run game to be affected.
Los Angeles Chargers: Do you have to ask? Follow me on twitter @ronacesports, and check out my AFC West preview that I did with my partner-in-crime, Las Vegas Cris. Feel free to DM me for the link. The NFL’s all-time worst special team unit has prevented LA from making the playoffs in six of the past seven years. In August they allowed a punt and kickoff return touchdown. Please fix this.
NFC:
Dallas: Offensive line play. Three new OL are slated to start, with one of them a rookie left tackle. Dallas has already been a highly penalized team (last under the current staff), and rookie Tyler Smith was a penalty magnet in college.
NYG: Growing pains. In Buffalo, Josh Allen suffered until their GM built the foundation around him, and then the team thrived. The OL came 1st, then Diggs and other WR’s then the RB’s and TE. The NYG have the right GM and Coach in place (from Buffalo), but not enough talent around Daniel Jones to make this work right away. Of course, they may not even have the right QB, so what you see offensively in 2022 may be far different than what you see in a year or two.
Philadelphia: The pure pass attack. There’s a chance that Philly overcomes multiple obstacles and continues to improve, especially with notable upgrades at WR and in the secondary, which was much needed. What we don’t know is if QB Hurts has proven NFL accuracy to drive a team downfield vs. playoff type defenses. The offense he’s running has been tailored to his strengths but his overall accuracy is modest at best by NFL standards. That’s the one area that bears watching in 2022.
Washington: The pass defense. Many areas regressed in 2021. Washington addressed some of these areas prior to the start of 2022, but not enough attention was paid to the back end.
Chicago: Offensive line play. Blocking for a young QB is never easy, but Chicago didn’t do Justin Felds any favors by the way they have gone about staffing the OL. Yes, they added four players in the 2022 draft, but three of them were throwaway picks according to my rankings. Teven Jenkins, drafted in 2021, came with injury baggage. Look for splash plays and some poor decisions from QB Fields in 2022, maybe due in part to an OL that will be taken advantage of at times during the season.
Detroit: QB Goff under pressure. I like Goff to a certain extent, but he fits best when he does not have to carry a team. With the Rams, the scheme worked and the roster was much better, especially with star power. As the roster in Detroit develops, they might find that an upgrade at QB is necessary, especially when Goff is challenged with inside pass pressure.
Green Bay: Anything related to special team play. Mason Crosby was just 25-34 last year and has had seasons where he almost lost his job. We also saw what happened in the playoffs a year ago vs. SF. Little things are holding this team back.
Minnesota: The defensive secondary. Mike Zimmer was generally outstanding in this area but the last two years were disappointments. The new regime has already gutted seven of eleven picks from 2021, and drafted two new defensive backs. Unless the pass rush makes covering opposing receivers easier, I don’t see enough talent on the back end to quick fix this area.
Atlanta: The pass rush. Long a liability, there’s no way Atlanta can get back on track without putting more pressure on opposing QB’s. The Falcons had just 18 defensive sacks in 2021. The 31st rated team in that area had 29.
Carolina: QB production and turnovers: I lump these areas together as Carolina has had major issues with QB interceptions, leading to a -13 turnover ratio in 2021. The defense has overachieved. If the offense can limit mistakes the Panthers might surprise some people. If not, look for the staff to be on the hot seat all season long.
New Orleans: The missing Head Coach. Dennis Allen deserved this upgrade, but if the Saints regress the main reason will likely be the absence of Sean Payton. In just seven starts QB Jamais Winston was 5-2, and significantly reduced his turnovers. Built to win now, and adding quality WR’s and safety Tyrann Mathieu, Allen may not get the most out of Jamais. The team threw a shutout when Payton missed a game last year (Covid), but scored only nine points. Will the offense suffer?
Tampa: Rob Gronkowski. Yes, the OL took massive hits. Yes, the secondary plays too soft. Yes, the durable DL Suh is gone. But there’s only one Gronk, and Brady leaned on him on 3rd down and in the red zone. He will be missed.
Arizona: Coaching. As someone who has produced NFL draft reports for forty years, GM Steve Keim has been one of my favorites. He’s delivered quality players each and every year. The coaching staff, specifically the defensive coaching staff has let the team down. If Arizona regresses in 2022, it might be because the coaches on this side of the ball once again failed to make adjustments and/or did not develop the talent handed to them.
Los Angeles Rams: The offensive line. In reality, LA was lucky to reach the Super Bowl, needing several in-season roster additions to get in the playoff mix. For 2022, the OL must replace their retired left tackle and their potential starting (rookie) offensive guard is out for the entire season. The current OL looks vulnerable.
San Francisco: The pass defense. Lost in their attempt to win the NFC last year was the fact that the pass defense was bottom tier, allowing 68.3%. Jimmie Ward is their best defensive back and he will miss games 1-4. This area could hold SF back.
Seattle: QB play. Can you get more obvious than this? Geno Smith lacks the ability to put up consistent points and is sack prone. Drew Lock lacks NFL accuracy. Seattle will play hard all season long but may come up short on game winning drives.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
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