Super Bowl Preview – Part Two
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: Last week I took a first look at Philadelphia and KC, discussing each unit individually. This week I look at the matchups, what it might take for each team to win the big game, and close with a handful of proposition plays that might be worth a look.
PHILDELPHIA’S RUN GAME VS. THE KANSAS CITY DEFENSE: Thanks to Jalen Hurts, the Eagles clearly run the ball more than most teams. Only three times did they run fewer than 30 times. Hurts ran 156 times in games 1-14, many on designed runs. I’ve always been partial to RB’s who yield a high yards-per-carry average over time. RB Sanders has that ability, and Philly seldom overuses him, especially early in games. RB Gainwell has thrived lately, and Boston Scott has had his moments as well. KC’s run defense was a bit below average in yards-per-carry, but average in total yards allowed. Running QB’s faced included Kyler Murray (opener) and Josh Allen, but then the list drops, with Joe Burrow next on the list. Russell Wilson can run, but it’s not his first look any more. My analysis is that Hurts will get his rush yards in this game, but I’m also of the feeling that KC will try to scheme for this, much like SF did in the NFC title game. This for me is a chess match. If KC’s outside speed over pursues, Hurts and Sanders will gash them with big runs. The term “assignment-sound” is going to be critical for KC’s run D.
KANSAS CITY’S RUN GAME VS. THE PHILADELPHIA DEFENSE: Conversely, QB Mahomes runs a pass-first offense. He threw the ball nearly 40 times per game (not counting week 17) in the regular season, and KC ran the ball about 24 times per game leading up to week 17. For three years running I’ve seen opposing teams be afraid to run on Philly’s 1st line of defense. KC should try, if only just to keep the defense honest. Mahomes now has two weeks to heal, but the guess is that he will run if necessary late in the first half, and throws caution to the wind only in the 4th quarter with the Super Bowl at stake. RB Pacheco is good enough to cause Philly problems, but as a rookie, I’m not sure he will be featured if the going is rough early on. I wouldn’t be surprised if KC rode the “hot hand” in the run game, but keep the following in mind: Philly’s pass rush was #1 in the NFL with a bullet. Maybe we see the best pass blocker in the backfield more than usual, and that may not be the rookie.
PHILADELPHIA’S WR’S AND TE’S VS. THE KANSAS CITY DEFENSE: Injuries caused KC to field a very young secondary vs. Joe Burrow in the AFC title game. KC teaches their CB’s and safeties well, but Philly’s offense has the potential for great run-pass balance, which could cause occasional lapses. I liked Philly’s game plan vs. SF which saw them try to go deep on at least six occasions before SF’s QB room was decimated, changing what Philly’s offense needed to do. KC’s pass rush and pass defense is all about speed. KC’s recent draft philosophy has been about speed on both sides of the ball. For obvious pass plays I think Hurts is better off using TE Goedert or throwing routes to RB’s flanking out (something they do not do often). On other downs I think you do try to stretch KC out, hoping for a big play from WR’s Smith or Brown. The timing was off on those deep throws last game, but it just takes one or two splash plays to score quickly. It’s possible that KC’s own pass rush feels disrespected. They were top tier in getting to the QB as well. I like their chances to get to Hurts in obvious pass situations, but I can’t get past the fact that Philly could burn KC on the edge with misdirection plays, taking advantage of KC having all that speed.
KANSAS CITY’S WR’S AND TE’S VS. THE PHILADELPHIA DEFENSE: In studying KC’s pass attack for 2022, anyone can see that the feature guy is elite TE Kelce. My task has been to study every WR on their roster to see if I could find something special. Valdez-Scantling has had occasional breakout games, and can’t be ignored, but his value is slightly diminished (in my eyes) if there are not seasoned veterans lined up to get Philly’s defenders to commit to the underneath stuff. For purposes of this write-up I’m calling Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman the “seasoned” veterans, and Skyy Moore and Justin Watson the players Philly would be less afraid of. The wildcard is Kadarius Toney. For me, he’s not seasoned enough for the 1st group, but is further along in his route development as compared to the second group. Smith-Schuster, Hardman, Toney and Watson all missed time in the postseason. Of that group, Hardman might be the biggest loss, because my study of him is that he had the biggest upside. Prior to injury, he had 25 receptions in games 1-8, freeing Scantling to go deep (22-359). Scantling was far less productive without Hardman in the lineup. Smith-Schuster can’t be ignored and he has the skill set to go deeper if needed. He caught 44 passes for 582 yards in games 1-8, and was injured in the 9th game. When 100%, he’s fully capable of a 5-57 stat line. As I write this, Hardman is likely out, but Smith-Schuster and Toney may play. Because Toney has not been on the team that long, I don’t think he’ll be used to stretch the field. Then again, Mahomes can do amazing things with the ball and has amazing vision to see secondary targets. Philly job is to bull rush four guys, forcing Mahomes to get the ball out quicker than usual. Confuse him, and I think there will be a turnover opportunity. My advice: Get as much information as you can on the health of KC’s WR’s. In the end, don’t be surprised if KC uses two-TE sets much of the time, due to WR health concerns as well as pass protection concerns. That puts Noah Gray (64% usage last game) and even Jody Fortson (20% usage, 14 snaps) in play.
SPECIAL TEAM NOTES: There’s not much separating these teams with the return to health of KC kicker Butker. I give the kick return edge to Boston Scott and Philly. Both teams have had occasional issues defending kicks.
COACHING: Nick Sirianni is a novice in big game situations as compared to Andy Reid, but you can’t find fault in his game planning or adjustments made during his tenure. The scheme moves he made after his initial 2021 bye week were outstanding. All coordinators are at least above average. Philly has elite GM Howie Roseman, who has built this roster that now has a) curtailed splash plays after years of issues, b) goes 8-10 deep along the DL/pass rusher, c) features quality at WR and depth at RB, and d) has a quality OL. Meanwhile, all KC’s GM has done is a) make this team one of the fastest in the NFL, b) wisely use their Tyreek Hill draft capital to provide depth at several positions, and c) restructure the OL from where it was at the end of 2020 (bottom three) to where it is now (arguably top three). Edge Andy Reid, but there’s no loser in this group.
MY KEYS TO THE GAME: Which pass rush will cause these two great OL’s problems? Big plays may decide this game. Will Hurts be more accurate in his deep throws this week? Will Mahomes extend plays and use his vision and his unique mechanics to find a WR or TE in open space? Is KC up to the challenge of establishing the run and maybe finding some edges? Is the Philly run game, including of course QB Hurts going to be too much for the average KC run D to handle?
PHILADELPHIA WILL WIN IF:
- They hit on their deep throws, which I expect them to feature at least five times
- They contain KC’s WR’s, specifically Scantling deep and Smith-Schuster in the short to medium range
- Mahomes tries to do too much, which results in a strip-sack or too many throws into coverage
- KC loses outside containment on Hurts or on any RB/WR on misdirection plays
KANSAS CITY WILL WIN IF:
- After facing a slew of mediocre QB’s, Philly’s overwhelmed by what Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy and Patrick Mahomes bring to the big game. Remember, Reid has two weeks to find a weakness in Philly’s defensive formation
- KC’s speedy pass rushers cause havoc in the backfield. Will Hurts and Philly be surprised at their quickness?
- If a KC WR (or secondary TE) emerge as a 2nd weapon. I felt that would be Mecole Hardman. Now it may have to be Smith-Schuster or TE Noah Gray.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s the Super Bowl, but that does not mean making a big play on the game if there are no noticeable edges. Why sacrifice gains made during the season for a play if it’s not evident. I like Reid and KC’s consistent ability to win close games, while noting that KC has for at least the last two seasons been money burners for those laying points with the Chiefs. In many a podcast we’ve warned viewers to watch for inflated lines with KC. I was prepared to offer a low-sized play with KC if all their WR’s were good to go. The balance Scantling, Hardman and Smith-Schuster bring to KC’s offense would be the difference, obviously along with TE Kelce. There has to be at least some concern that Philly is still facing a better offense than they have for most of the season, while KC has faced tougher AFC competition. There’s also the concern that Hurts may not rise to the occasion, even with some really strong players by his side. Ultimately, I may end up passing the game at anything less than +3 and KC. I’m leaning this way because there’s just too many health concerns on KC’s side, plus the fact that KC may not be able to stop Hurts from running the ball, as they haven’t faced many QB’s with his type of skill set. If the run game works, it takes pressure off of the young QB, and enables him to be in his “comfort zone”.
Thanks for reading all my articles this season, and good luck with all your Super Bowl wagers.
ADDITIONAL PROPS WORTH LOOKING AT:
Last week I noted two player propositions that were worth pursuing (Hurts over 9.5 carries, Mahomes interception). I personally play between 40 and 70 props in the Super Bowl, finding middles as well as and misplaced lines from shops who are not used to the volume produced for this one game. Prop prices are fluid, and since becoming more popular than ever, they change rapidly. I won’t be able to list some of the better props I have in this space due to line movement, but as of this writing, here are some that are still available which are worth considering. NOTE: Always shop for the best line. I’ve seen RB’s with prices of ten or more yards different (Sanders for example) and WR’s with a ½ to 1 full catch variance.
Boston Scott (Philly) UNDER 12.5 rushing yards: Priced anywhere from 8.5 to 12.5. Scott has exceeded this number in both playoff games, but got his carries late in the game, after Philly had built up a big lead. Will he be used as much in a tight game?
Kenneth Gainwell (Philly) OVER 19.5 rushing yards and/or OVER 4.5 carries (-130): Conversely, Gainwell has been highly productive in the playoffs seeing relatively decent game action. I expect him to maintain decent usage in this game.
Jalen Hurts OVER 48.5 rushing yards: Unless this game is one sided, Hurts and his legs will be a big part of the game plan.
Isiah Pacheco UNDER 12.5 carries and/or UNDER 52.5 rushing yards: I respect what he has done in the latter stages of the season, but this is a big ask for a rookie against this front four. In addition, KC could stay pass-centric and/or use the more veteran RB McKinnon on such a big stage. Pacheco will likely get the first crack, and if he’s successful early then this play could go south. Many shops have this at 11.5, at -120 or higher, and at 50.5 rushing, but the number is trending up as of this writing.
Kansas City’s 1st play is a pass (+130): If one thinks this is a 50-50 play, then the return on investment (ROI) is solid. I make it no more than 55-45 run over pass, which is a smaller yield over time, but still carries better than 50-50 value at this price.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
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SPECIAL NOTE: I am now in the midst of doing exit reports on all 32 NFL teams. These videos are about 15-20 minutes in length when I do them solo, and a bit longer when I have a special guest join me in recapping a team. Notable guests, such as Kyle Hunter have been and will be joining me for a look at many of the NFL teams.
You can find my exit report series here.
