Jack's Free Pick Saturday: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+122)

The Colorado Rockies (15-29) just had their shocking 7-game winning streak come to an end Friday.  They blew a 4-1 lead to the Giants, who kept pouring on the runs in a 10-5 victory.  I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect, especially for bad teams like the Rockies.

The Giants are really raking at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They should stay hot against Ty Blach, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in two starts this season.  Blach is now 21-26 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his career in the big leagues.

Kyle Harrison is one of the best young starters in the game today.  Harrison is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He just faced the Rockies at Coors Field on May 7th and pitched 7 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory.  Blach allowed 4 earned runs, 3 homers and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Giants in his lone career start against them last season on the road.

Colorado is 1-17 in its last 18 road games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more and getting outscored by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  There's value on the home team to win by two runs or more today in what I expect to be a blowout.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Saturday.

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20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall with 16 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  They face a Cincinnati Reds team that is heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last six games.

Graham Ashcraft is 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in eight starts for the Reds this season while allowing 7 homers in 43 2/3 innings with only 35 K's.  He has really struggled in his last two starts, allowing 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 19 base runners in 9 innings.

Walker Buehler is making is way back from Tommy John surgery and is nowhere near 100%.  He is 0-1 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  He will remain on a pitch count and shaky in his 3rd start of the season today.

The Dodgers are 14-2 OVER in home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  Cincinnati is 8-0 OVER in its last eight road games vs. teams that strand 7.5 or more base runners per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+110)

The Oakland A's are back to reality, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They are 0-6 in their last six games overall and have scored a total of 10 runs during this 6-game skid, or an average of just 1.7 runs per game.  The Kansas City Royals are 27-19 this season, including 16-8 at home where they are scoring 5.0 runs per game.

It won't get any easier for the A's at the plate today against one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Seth Lugo.  He is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine starts this season while allowing just 12 earned runs in 59 2/3 innings.

I'll gladly fade Ross Stripling, who is 1-7 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in nine starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 72 base runners in 47 innings.  Stripling is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four road starts as well.  

Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center tonight in Kansas City, giving the Royals an even better chance of winning this game by multiple runs.  Oakland is 2-14 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season and getting outscored by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Lugo's teams are 22-4 in his 26 career starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game and outscoring them by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Royals on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Conditions look good for a slug fest in Chicago at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left.  The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter.

Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts this season, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's.  Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them.

No question Shota Imanaga's numbers are impressive this season for the Cubs.  But he has been fortunate to have the ERA and WHIP he has to this point according to the advanced analytics.  He is due some negative regression especially with how many runners he puts on base.

The OVER is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all 10 meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in seven of those.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 OVER in road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+110)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates up against their two best starting pitchers against two of their worst.  Now there's a role reversal, and the untouchable Shota Imanaga will take down the awful Bailey Salters in Game 3 today.

Imanaga is 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings.  Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's.  Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them.  His teams are 0-4 in those four starts.  

The Cubs are 10-3 when playing with double revenge this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 210.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between two of the best defenses in these playoffs.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the first five games in this series with 206, 196 and 196 combined points in the last three meetings.

The Mavericks have surrounded Doncic and Irving with elite defenders like Gafford, Lively, Washington and Jones Jr.  That has been the key to their success in the 2nd half of the season.  The Thunder haven't topped 101 points in any of the last three games and are getting little help outside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder have been dynamite in these playoffs defensively allowing 96 or fewer points in six of their nine playoff games.  They have allowed 105 points or fewer in eight of those nine.  I don't see either team topping 105 points in Game 6.

Dallas is 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday.