College Football Bowl Previews
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: Handicapping the bowl season is often quite exciting, but at the same time, quite nerve-racking. While Power Ratings and Matchup Metrics tend to work quite well in bowl games, there are several additional factors that must be carefully analyzed. Who’s playing and who is not, as the transfer portal has doubled from last year, and bowl opt-outs more than tripled, with more to come. Coaches have been fired and/or been hired away from bowl teams. What is the make-up of the entire staff that’s left to coach in the game? Some teams are thrilled to play in a bowl, while others could care less, either because they did not meet expectations this year and are playing in a “minor” bowl game, or maybe because the opponent is not enough of an enticement. Fan support has to be vetted out. Some fans will travel, but others will stay home.
The early slate of games clearly captures the uncertainty of this bowl season. Armed with my Power Numbers, a cheat sheet of useable rush data, and a set of tried-and-true situational factors, I isolated 15 plays that were possible as the numbers opened. I personally made six early plays, but based on line movement, I wished I had made all 15, as all but three gave me (sometimes significant) line value. Trying to guess line movements was not as bad as I thought, but figuring out all the potential coaching moves (most notably offensive and defensive coordinators and line coaches) was something that proved more difficult. Overall, I’m comfortable with not overdoing things early, and as of this writing (12/14), I have added another ten plays.
As my readers know, I write for clarity, even after I’ve compiled all my useable data. Below are two of my early writeups. As the reader can see, there may be still some unfinished business for each bowl game. This is my method of determining how to approach the games. I hope it triggers the thought process for everyone reading this, no matter what side you end up liking.
Cure Bowl – 12/16 – Troy-UTSA:
Troy was amazing in 2022. They overcame a Hail-Mary loss to App St by winning their last ten games. Defense paved the way for the new staff. UTSA opened 2022 with a split of overtime games, and after a loss to Texas, they to reeled off ten straight wins. It’s 11-2 vs. 11-2 in a game that features to really good teams.
Troy notes: Troy’s point ratio was 26-11.5. The rush ratio was 3.5-3.3. They have two potentially decent RB’s, but it should be noted that their best games were vs. some very poor run defenses. QB Watson seemed like an asset, but his 62% accuracy was achieved with just a 13-10 ratio, and he took a lot of sacks. Troy spreads the ball around in the pass game. Troy’s pass D% was acceptable, but if UTSA’s Harris plays, this will by far be the toughest QB faced. The PK was 16-18. The sack ratio was 39-40.
UTSA notes: UTSA won five of six close games, and their coach is doing great things with the program in a fertile recruiting area (San Antonio). QB Harris hit 71%, with 64% his WORST outing. He runs a nice scheme, and also can escape the pocket, which will be essential vs. a pretty good Troy pass rush. The skilled position players on offense are formidable. I like UTSA’s pass D%, but the run defense was mediocre at best. Their PK was 16-21. The 32-19 sack ratio from 2021 came in at 19-24 this season.
Keys to the game: Can Troy run on UTSA, making life easier for their QB? What happened to UTSA’s pass rush? It needs to be more of a factor in this game. The chess match is on, as Troy faces an upgrade at QB, while UTSA faces an upgrade on D.
The decision: This is the 1st of an astounding number of bowl games which featured a significant early line move. UTSA was generally -1.5 24 hours after release, but the line moved and is now Troy -2. That gives me NO rush pick, but at full strength, it sets up UTSA as a Power Play based on my Power Numbers. For the record, Power Play dogs are 24-17 vs. the spread of late in bowl games. It will be UTSA or no play for me as long as the opt-out tracker is flat.
New Mexico Bowl – 12/17 – BYU-SMU:
BYU’s last season as an independent was rather ho-hum, at 7-5. The schedule wasn’t easy, so I won’t look at that record as anything unexpected (I cashed an under 8.5 season win ticket). SMU’s 7-5 record was also more or less expected, with a coaching change that I felt produced in this case, some uncertainty. It’s a decent matchup, but one that won’t excite many.
BYU notes: BYU avenged losses to both Baylor and Boise (thanks both times), with all five of their losses coming to bowl teams. I didn’t expect them to exceed last year’s 5.4 per carry figure vs. this schedule, but the Cougars ended 2022 with a rush ledger of 5.45-176 yards per game. One of my concerns was having QB Hall stay healthy. He did just that, finishing at 66% with a stout 31-6 ratio. BYU scored 20 or more points in all games with this run-pass balance, and scored 35 or more six times. Sadly, we’re now hearing reports that Hall may not play in the bowl game due to an ankle injury suffered in the season finale. If he doesn’t go, the next man up is as raw as they come. This is all being written on 12/13, the same day that I learned RB Katoa has opted out of the bowl game. RB Brooks might be better and he is good to go, while WR Nacoa ran 25-209, with 5 rush TD’s as a change of pace option. Due to in-season injuries, BYU has utilized a variety of WR’s and TE’s. That will remain the same here. The defense suffered in 2022, allowing 30 points per game, a 4.7 per-carry average and a too high 66.3% through the air to opposing QB’s. SMU has an experienced offense with moderate run-pass balance and will test BYU’s defense. In addition, BYU will be without their defensive coordinator, DL coach, and a starting LB. In other news, BYU has a slightly below average kick return defense and had all kinds of field goal trouble, going 8-13, and 5-10 between 30-39 yards. I thought last year’s sack ratio of 17-14 was low. This year’s was lower, at 13-12. BYU simply does not pressure opposing QB’s.
SMU notes: SMU’s former coach transitioned nicely to TCU, but their offense did not miss a beat, putting up 38.5 points per game. QB play was consistent, with the stat sheet very similar to BYU’s. SMU has a capable rush attack, but only one of their guys may be completely healthy. The good news is that WR Rice (96 receptions) is a superstar. The bad news is that he won’t play in the bowl game, and they will also be missing their top deep threat. It’s still an area that will be decent, given BYU’s defensive shortcomings, but impact may be gone. 2021 was special for me in covering SMU, as one of my favorite defensive coordinators relocated here, Jim Leavitt. The 2022 coaching change brought in new faces, and the run D went from an unusually low 4.0-141 back up to 4.7-171.5. The pass defense did remain below 60%, improving a bit down to 57%. SMU’s sack ratio was pretty close to 2021’s figures at 26-19, and kicking was solid at 15-19.
Keys to the game: I believe BYU needs to switch gears and rely on running the ball 40+ times to take advantage of SMU’s leaky run D. I can’t see BYU’s pass D% suddenly improving, but the plan should be to implement a bend but not break approach to prevent the big play, and that should be possible with two impact WR’s missing. Can SMU take advantage of BYU’s soft kick return defense? The team does not show any great talent to do so. There’s a danger that BYU will not finish any red zone drives due to the combination of a new QB, coupled with a below average kicking game.
The decision: The line opened where it was supposed to, BYU -1.5 but has steadily changed to where it stands now, with SMU favored by 5.5. In addition, the total has moved from 74 all the way down to 64.5. Obviously, a large part of that is Hall likely not playing, and WR Rice missing from SMU, plus the New Mexico weather will be quite cold, although no wind or rain is in the forecast. It didn’t help matters (for BYU) that one of their more reliable RB’s just opted out. If Hall DOES play, the line should pivot, but he would be worth it in my opinion. BYU qualifies with a 56% rush edge in this matchup, and new coaches who are not rush picks in bowl games (when not facing the same or an interim coach) clock in at 12-24 ATS the past 15 seasons. Complicating matters (of course) is the fact that BYU is without two key defensive coaches and a LB. I’m willing to take a small flyer on BYU at +3 or more if Hall does go, but with all the player and coaching uncertainty, I’ll pass at this time otherwise. Meanwhile, I typically play smaller with over-under game totals, ending up with about 5-7 plays during the bowl season. I made three early plays on totals, including this one. I set the line at 63.5, and ended up with going UNDER 72.5, hesitating a bit when I saw the opening line. Neither defense is great, but if I’m right about BYU running the ball more, that should run clock. Adding fuel to this play is the absence of SMU WR Rice and the BYU below par kicking game. I’ll hedge if QB Hall plays.
NEXT WEEK: More college bowl previews
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