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Let’s get to my free college football pick for tonight’s game on ESPN!
West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) vs. Connecticut Huskies (3-4) Betting Lines from BetUS
MoneyLine: West Virginia (-240) Connecticut (+200)
College Football Betting Spread: West Virginia -6 (-110) UConn +6 (-110)
The Mountaineers were shocked last weekend at home by Syracuse, so they’ll need to rebound in this one. This West Virginia team still has hopes of winning the Big East Conference, but they can’t afford another loss.
The Mountaineers just haven’t quite hit their stride on offense this season. The pieces are in place for this team to be great offensively, but it hasn’t happened. Geno Smith has done a very good job learning the system in his first year under center. Smith has minimized mistakes and thrown only five interceptions this season. Noel Devine is one of the most dangerous runners in the country, but he is averaging just 4.9 yards per carry, which is the lowest in his four year college career. West Virginia’s passing game has been solid on short routes, but they have been unable to stretch the defense so far this year.
The West Virginia defense has been superb this season. West Virginia is allowing just 13.3 points per game, which is fifth best in the country. The Mountaineers are strong up front as well as in the secondary. There isn’t a single star on this defense, but they have a ton of guys who play solid fundamental football. My favorite statistic on this defense is their amazing third down defense. Opponents are converting just 24% of their third down conversion attempts, which makes West Virginia the toughest defense in the country on third down.
Randy Edsall’s team was expected to be very good this year, but things haven’t gone as planned. It has been a season to forget thus far for the Huskies. They have a chance to turn it around on national television tonight.
Zach Frazer started the season as quarterback for UConn and was benched because of his poor play, but he is back at the starting spot tonight. Cody Endres is suspended for the season and Michael Box is out with an injury, so Frazer gets the position back by default. The Huskies have one of the better running back in the nation in Jordan Todman. Todman already has 841 yards on the season, but he will face a very tough West Virginia front seven. Connecticut is averaging just 163 yards per game through the air.
UConn’s defense was supposed to be on the of the best in the Big East, but they have been no better than mediocre. Rutgers torched this defense for 453 yards two weeks on Friday Night football on ESPN, and Rutgers has a terrible offensive unit. The defensive line for UConn is huge, but their productivity just isn’t at the level it should be. If they are going to win this game the Huskies will need the defensive line to play up to their potential.
West Virginia vs. UConn Betting Trends:
UConn is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games
West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Connecticut
West Virginia vs. UConn Free College Football Pick:
The Huskies will be hungry for a win at home, but I really think this is a team that lacks the necessary cohesiveness right now. West Virginia’s defense will load up the box and force Frazer to beat them through the air, which is a bad sign for UConn. I like West Virginia -6 in this one.