More often than not, the props are a better way to bet on the Super Bowl than selecting a side or total. The prop bets are certainly more fun to follow, depending on which ones you bet on. While you may be eager to bet the over/under on Idina Menzel’s national anthem or you are expecting Katy Perry to open her halftime set with “Roar”, the true earning potential of the Super Bowl comes from taking advantage of the game and individual player prop bets.
After sorting through the prop bets and looking to find value, there are a handful of Super Bowl XLIX player props that appear to be worth making a wager on. Or, at the very least, taking a good, long look at them. The beauty of prop bets is that they can sometimes serve as an alternate way to pick the winner or bet the total without actually betting the spread, money line, or total. Make sure to shop around for the best odds on the following five player prop bets that should be on your radar.
1. Tom Brady longest completion under 37.5 yards
In his Super Bowl career, Tom Brady has 127 completions. Exactly one of them has gone for more than 37.5 yards. Only two of them have gone for more than 30 yards. It’s highly unlikely that Brady is able to pick up chunk yardage against the Seahawks defense, which is arguably the top tackling defense in the NFL.
The Patriots throw a lot of quick passes and out routes. Those rarely lead to big gains without a missed tackle and the Seahawks only allowed 96 yards per game after the catch. The Seahawks allowed 32 passing plays of 20 yards or more all season long out of 313 completions. That’s 10.2 percent of the time that the Seahawks allowed 20 or more yards. The longest pass that they allowed went for just 47 yards. This one should come in comfortably.
2. Russell Wilson over 7.5 rushing attempts
Russell Wilson’s legs are a better weapon than his arm. It’s the threat of him escaping the pocket that provides separation for his receivers downfield. In this game, following his four-interception performance in the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks would be wise to make it as easy on Wilson as possible. That means keeping him in motion. Giving him a run-pass option, rolling the pocket, or simply running the zone-read can slow down the pass rush and force the safeties to cheat up, opening up the play-action game.
Wilson may not fly over this, but there’s enough value in looking over. Some may ask, “Why not over 40.5 rushing yards as well?” The concern there is that Wilson may have a couple one or two-yard carries because receivers are covered or he makes the wrong decision to keep the ball on the zone-read. Keep in mind that kneel downs count as rushing attempts, so bettors could get fortunate with three of those at the end of the game.
3. Devin McCourty over 0.5 interceptions
Or, in layman’s terms, will Devin McCourty have an interception? Bettors are getting 4/1 at some shops on this prop and it appears to be worth a shot. With Wilson coming off of a four-interception game, one has to wonder about his confidence throwing the ball downfield. The Seahawks would be wise to use the pass to set up the run and Wilson’s deep balls do have a tendency to float a little bit. With big names like Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas in this game, McCourty could very well come into this one with a chip on his shoulder.
It’s a bit of a gamble, but what +400 bet isn’t a gamble?
4. Will Brandon LaFell score a touchdown? Yes
Hear me out on this one. Did you know that Brandon LaFell was targeted over 100 times this season? I didn’t either until I started researching the prop bets. The expectation for this game is that the Seahawks will pay plenty of attention to Rob Gronkowski, which is going to have to free up somebody. Enter Brandon LaFell, who, at 6’2”, is probably New England’s most physical receiver outside of Gronkowski. If Gronk is properly blanketed in the red zone, somebody else will have to pick up the slack and that somebody could very well be LaFell.
Honestly, there are worse MVP long shot bets than LaFell in the 14/1 range. Anybody remember Deion Branch before Tom Brady elevated his career and helped him to a Super Bowl MVP?
5. Ryan Allen and Jon Ryan longest punt over 52.5 yards
For this prop, we look at Drew Butler, the Arizona Cardinals punter. Butler averaged 4.4 yards more per punt at home than he did on the road. Jon Ryan rates poorly in the net yards stats because he didn’t have to boom many punts with an offense that was able to get out of the shadow of its own goalposts more often than not. Both of these teams excelled at making the opponent drive the length of the field. The Patriots had the best opposing starting field position and the Seahawks were fourth. Both of these guys should be able to blast some punts in the controlled environment.
Keep a look out for more game props to bet as Super Bowl XLIX draws nearer and check out our look at the top Super Bowl XLIX game props.