Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST). The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.) Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster. The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4) The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage. Lay the points, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos +8.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -135 | 103 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST). The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home. The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend. So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season. Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores. This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season. So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST). The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season. That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light. Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game. In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards. Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG. Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th. I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position. Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.) Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss. Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment. Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season. KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG. The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense. KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent. But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST). The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger. Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT. Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games. The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71: “The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.” Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year. The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records. Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games. Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST). The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.) I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less. Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Seahawks -5 v. Giants | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 143 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter. The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend. Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it. The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory. The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-17 | Colts +9 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend. If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup. Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far. Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Dolphins v. Falcons -11 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing. Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans. Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.) I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week. Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment. With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST). The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here. The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one. Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less. As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST). The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards. Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.) Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end. Good luck….Larry |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 137 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break: “It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.” Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.) Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina. New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.) And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants. Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 101 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City. The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night. With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off. Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.) Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival. I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations. And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble. Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form. After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon. Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST). Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here. Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home. Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios. The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick. That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd. I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |