Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Bucs | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -135 | 116 h 58 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The Bucs haven’t played this year and don’t really know “what they have yet.” The Bears are 0-1 but came very close to upsetting the visiting Falcons last weekend in the eventual 23-17 setback. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Tampa was scheduled to face Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed the game. Note that Chicago plays with revenge here as well after falling 36-10 in Tampa last November 13th. Bears’ QB Mike Glennon was 26 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown, while rookie Tarik Cohen had 66 rushing yards and eight catches for 47 yards and a TD. The Falcons were the highest scoring team in the league last year, so the 372 yards given up has to also be looked at in a favorable light. The Bucs turn to Jameis Winston, who had 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 INT’s last season. The team acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason as a big time playmaker, but with the team having to focus on “real life” issues the last couple of weeks, one has to wonder where Tampa Bay’s head is at right now? I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the same points range. I think we have a battle on our hands here, not a blowout. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:25 EST). Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 setbacks, as Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville, while Cincinnati would get shut out 20-0 at home to the Ravens. Note that the Bengals play with revenge here after falling 12-10 in Houston last year. The Texans looked horrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Tom Savage was sacked six times and had two fumbles, one which was returned for a TD. DeShaun Watson came in and he was 12 of 22 for 102 yards and one TD and one pick. In all though the offensive line gave up ten sacks. The defense allowed rookie RB Leonard Fournette run for 100 yards on 26 carries and 155 yards overall, while coming up with a total of zero sacks and zero forced turnovers. The Bengals also looked brutal, with QB Andy Dalton going 16 of 31 for 170 yards, four INT’s and one fumble. The run game produced just 77 yards on 22 carries. The defense looked decent though, allowing a total of 268 yards overall. Linebacker Vincent Rey had 11 tackles. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road (also 0-7 ATS in its last seven “Thursday” night games), while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival. Dalton has the pedigree and track record to shake off one lousy game, while Watson will be starting his first ever profesionall football contest tonight. Houston would appear to be still “hung over” with having to deal with the Hurricane, while Cincinnati is focused and ready to atone for the pathetic Week 1 effort. Lay the points, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 202 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Chargers/Broncos (10:30 EST). I’m playing both the side and the total in this game (the Broncos and the UNDER.) Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. Both teams have many questions as the season gets underway. LA is in a new home and has a new head coach. Denver also has a new coach which hopes to get his new team back into the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2011. Last year the Chargers were horrible on defense, allowing 26.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The team made some moves in the offseason to address these issues, including using a fourth and fifth round pick for the secondary. Clearly the unit catches a break in Week 1 though in facing the Broncos run first offense. LA’s offense should once again make some noise this year with veteran QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon, but clearly the unit faces a stiff task out of the gate in facing the Broncos elite defense on the road. And Denver’s defense is expected to be even better this eason with the additions of second round pick DE DeMarcus Walker and third round pick CB Brendan Langley. Last year the Broncos were fourth in the league in yards allowed. The pass defense was No. 1, holding teams to just 185.8 YPG. And clearly that doesn’t bode well for Rivers on opening night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting to see a lot of Gordon while the visitors are on offense. The weakness for Denver is on the offensive side of the ball as the team will try to once and for all determine if Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will earn the starters role. The team did however go out and sign Brock Osweiler as third stringer as well. I’ll point out that LA has seen the total go under the number in its last four as a road dog of three points or less an in ten of its last 11 when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of its last 21 as a favorite and in 11 of its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). Pittsburgh won the AFC North with an 11-5 record last year and then fell 36-17 to the Pats in the Championship round. Cleveland was terrible last season, lucky to earn a 1-15 record. The Steelers won both games last year, 27-24 in the first one and 24-9 in the second. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout in the 2017/18 season opener. I have a hard time seeing Cleveland slowing down Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense today. Big Ben is back under center, last year he finished with 3,819 passing yards and a big 29:13 TD:INT ratio. RB Le’Veon Bell is back after posting 1,268 rushing yards with seven TD’s in 12 games. Roethlisberger throws to perhaps the most dangerous tandem in the league in Antonio Brown and Martavias Bryant. Pittsburgh was decent (not great) defenisvely last year, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing the Browns shaky offensive unit. Cleveland will be starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who had a decent preseason by going 25 of 49 for 351 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer will be leaning heavily on RB Isaiah Crowell, who had 952 rushing yards. The Browns struggled defensively and while they should take a step forward this year, the unit still has more questions than answers currently. I’ll point out as well that the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Browns are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home. Divisional contests are always the most important. All signs point to Pittsburgh sending an early message. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 1884 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). After winning the AFC West last year, the Chiefs knew that the perennial East-champion Patriots would be on the schedule in 2017. That KC heads to Foxboro in the opener makes a difficult game even more of a test. But the Chiefs – who may be the best team that no one talks about -- could be looking at at least a cover in this one. Kansas City may be one of the few teams in the league not intimidate by Belichick & Brady – the Chiefs gave the Patriots a decent game in the playoffs a few years ago before running out of gas, and the year before that laid a 41-14 regular-season beating on New England. This time around things could hinge on how KC’s solid secondary does against Brady and a slew of new and talented players that NE has brought on board. Keeping new burner WR Brandin Cooks is a must for keeping the Chiefs in this one until the fourth quarter, which will go a long way toward covering the number. One other note – the Chiefs are 43-21 over the last four seasons and have won three straight openers. Good luck...Larry |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 58.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -103 | 322 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Patriots/Falcons (6:30 EST). Michelle Obama famously said during campaign, “When they go low, we go high.” Well, it works in reverse, too, and bettors are urged to take a hard look at the Super Bowl under. Oddsmakers have set the number at a whopping 58.5, the highest in SB history. You can make an argument that the number is legit. The Falcons piled up 475 yards a game this year (best in the NFL) and have continued moving the ball in the playoffs. New England basically scores whenever it has to, and plenty of times when it doesn’t. Tom Brady with an army of quality receivers and a mad scientist offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) can be frightening. All that said, signs point to under under play. Getting to 59 leaves very little margin for error, relies on short fields (both teams stress ball security), and will have two weeks to work on defensive schemes to at least somewhat cool down the potent offenses. The Falcons defense got the job done against Seattle and Green Bay. No one in the NFL gave up fewer points this year than New England did. This time around there will be more field goals than touchdowns, and that means a payday for under players who swim against the traditional over tide. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -106 | 322 h 7 m | Show |
My 10 SUPER BOWL 51 TOP SIDE PLAY is on the Atlanta Falcons (6:30 EST). The Super Bowl-champion Atlanta Falcons. Maybe not, but even if they don’t beat the Patriots in the 51st running of America’s favorite game, they will cover and reward bettors who risk some of their hard-earned cash. It won’t be easy. Taking down the Patriots in a big game never is. But the Falcons are a freight train right now, they have the league’s MVP, they have one of the top three receivers in the world, they have a defense that is getting stops and turnovers, and it is all coming together at the right time. Atlanta will win it by taking a page out of the New York Giants’ SB playbook and pressuring Tom Brady, especially up the middle. Houston also had (a little) success coming straight at Brady, who is at his weakest when flushed from the pocket. And the Falcons’ offense has progressed far enough to understand and adjust to New England’s constantly changing defensive schemes. Oddsmakers opened with the Falcons getting three from the 4-time Super Bowl champs, who have had to lay points in their last 8 games after showing that they are indeed for real. Grab the 3, put it in your back pocket. The Falcons are ready to take flight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 153 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the New England Patriots (6:40 EST). The 13-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are at New England to take on the 15-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Last week the Steelers barely held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. The Patriots were in neutral in their victory over the Texans last week before hitting the gas in the second half to pull away for the 34-16 win. Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t playing, but the Patriots won 27-16 at Heinz Field in Week seven. The Steelers finished the regular season by posting 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense was ranked tenth, conceding an average of 20.4 PPG. The Patriots though were step above in both departments, finishing third in the league in scoring with an average of 27.6 PPG, while finishing No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding 15.6 PPG. Last week the unit held the Texans to just 285 yards and had three INT’s. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against New England, while the Pats are 6-0 ATS in their last six following a SU win and 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records. The Pats strength on defense was stopping the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell. Note that Pittsburgh allowed an average of just 88.6 yards per game on the ground. So far Roethlisberger has two TD’s and three INT’s in the playoffs. It’s a lot to ask a team to win on the road in the postseason, so to say it’s difficult to win SU twice away from friendly confines as the underdog would be a bit of an understatement I think. The Steelers’ secondary is average at best, so New England QB Tom Brady should be able to move the ball in this one. Also note that the Pats were able to rush for 140 yards in their Week 7 win over the Steelers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots OVER 50 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 153 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Steelers/Patriots (6:40 EST). The 13-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are in New England to take on the 15-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Steelers would squeak by the Chiefs 18-16 on Sunday, while the Pats pulled away for a 34-16 beatdown of the Texans. Note that when these two teams met at Heinz Field back on Week 7, New England scored the 27-16 victory (note that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger was not playing in that one). The Steelers had plenty of chances to score a TD last week, but instead settled for FG’s. In the end, it was enough to secure their spot in the AFC Championship game. RB Le’Veon Bell had 170 yards off 30 carries last week. FG’s won’t get the job done in Foxborough though. Note that Pittsburgh did finish the year averaging 24.9 PPG, which ranked it 11th in the league. Now Roethlisberger, Bell and Antonio Brown face the league’s top defense, a unit which conceded only 15.6 PPG. The Patriots were almost as good on the offensive end in averaging 27.6 PPG. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven playoff games after scoring a combined 35 points or less in its prevoius playoff contest, while New England has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of seven this year against teams with winning records and in three of four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points. In my estimation, the only way the Steelers can win this game is to open up the playbook and stretch the Patriots tough defensive unit. The Pats are better against the run than pass, so look for the visitors to give the green light to Roethlisberger throughout. Brady will also have his chances in facing Pittsburgh’s mediocre secondary. Play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-17 | Packers +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -115 | 153 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Championship Sunday Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET. Both Championship Sunday games have terrific QB matchups, with this Green Bay/Atlanta game featuring the NFL's hottest QB in Aaron Rodgers up against Matt Ryan, who many believe will win this year's MVP award (however, Rodgers could have something to say about that!). Rodgers owns a Super Bowl ring and the Packers are participating in the playoffs for the EIGHTH consecutive season. As for the Falcons, they did capture the NFC's No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record in 2016, but this is the team's first postseason appearance since 2012. Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six consecutive wins later and the Packers won the NFC North at 10-6. They've then beaten the Giants 38-13 at Lambeau in the wild card round before last Sunday's thrilling 34-31 last-second win in Dallas over the Cowboys, who had earned the NFC's No. 1 seed at 13-3. Rodgers finished the regular season with an NFL-high 40 TD passes and just seven INTs (QB rating of 104.2), which all followed him struggling down the stretch last season and in the early going of 2016. Despite losing Jody Nelson (led the NFL with 14 TDs among his 97 receptions) to a rib injury against teh Giants, Rodgers threw for 362 yards and four TDs without an INT in 40 attempts. Without Nelson against Dallas, Rodgers threw for 356 yards with two TDs, although he did throw his first INT since a Nov 13th game at Tennessee. Rodgers has 21 TDs and just one INT in the team's 8-0 run plus a Green Bay defense which allowed 24.2 PPG on the season (to rank 21st), has held opponents to 19.5 PPG during its winning run. As good as Rodgers has been, Matt Ryan has delivered a "career season" for the Falcons. The Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL during the regular season, leading all teams by averaging 33.8 PPG. He just missed throwing for 5,000 yards (4,944), while passing for 38 TDs and just seven INTs. His 117.1 QB rating not only led the NFL, but was the fifth-best in NFL history. In fact, he topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle (125.7) in the divisional round when threw for 338 yards with three TDs and zero INTs against Seattle, which owned the best defense of any NFC playoff team. In Julio Jones (83 catches for 1,409 yards), Ryan has one of the three-best WRs in the NFL plus the RB duo of Freeman and Coleman, have turned into a real force. Each can run, catch and gain yards after the catch. Freeman gained 1,541 yards from scrimmage (13 TDs) and Coleman 941 yards with 11 TDs during the regular season. However, defense has been an issue for the Falcons all season, allowing 25.4 PPG (27th) on 371.2 YPG (25th). Then again, this is not grandfather's NFL or your father's, for that matter. Atlanta ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed and Green Bay 21st but ONE of them is headed to Super Bowl 51. The knock on Ryan was his dismal 1-4 playoff record coming into this postseason and while he was great vs Seattle, did that real "get the monkey off his back?" The Falcons defense didn't get much of a test against Seattle, a team which averaged only 14.8 PPG on the road during the regular season and then 'laid an egg' in Atlanta. Seattle scored on its opening drive, then didn't get into the end zone again until 3:21 left in the game, when the team was down 36-13! Is the Atlanta defense really ready for Rodgers? When these teams met in Atlanta back in Week 8, the Packers took the lead with just under four minutes to go but Ryan drove the Falcons 75 yards (in 11 plays) for the tying TD, with the extra-point being the game-winner (33-32). Can't see giving Rodgers and Green Bay any points in this one. I made "The Pack" a top-rated 10* last weekend and will do so again, here. Good luck...Larry |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons UNDER 60 | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Packers/Falcons (3:05 EST). The 12-6 Green Bay Packers are getting ready to battle the 12-5 Atlanta Falcons on Championship Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I’m expecting more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Green Bay would hold on for a 34-31 win at Dallas last Sunday, while the Falcons rolled to a 36-20 win over the Seahawks. These teams met in Week 18 and Atlanta won 33-32 in front of the home town crowd. Clearly these teams know how to score, but I think the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. Green Bay actually held a 28-13 lead, but allowed Dallas to fight its way back into the game with a crummy fourth quarter defensively last week. Clearly the team will be looking to atone for the mental setback. Note that the Packers average 27 PPG and concede 24.2. The Falcons finished with the No. 1 offense in the regular season with an average off 33.8 PPG, so the fact that they got 36 on the Seahawks doesn’t come as too big a surprise. However, Atlanta’s defense, which conceded 25.4 PPG, looked great in holding Seattle to just 20 points. I’ll point out that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four when the combined score in its last game eclipsed 55 points. This can still be a high-scoring game and fall below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 153 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Steelers/Chiefs (1:05 EST). The 12-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Kansas City to take on the 12-4 Chiefs and for a number of different reasons, I’m expecting a defensive affair. Last week the Steelers would pull away for the 30-12 win over the Dolphins, while the Chiefs enter off their bye. When these teams met back in Week 4, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had 300 yards and five TD’s, while Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had 287 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Suffice it to say, I think we’ll see a much more competitive affair this time around. We hear so much about how great the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense is, as the combination of Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown is considered one of the most dynamic in the league. The thing is, Pittsburgh only averaged 24.9 PPG, which ranked it 11th overall, just ahead of the Chiefs who averaged 24.3. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked tenth in conceding 20.4, while the Chiefs are ranked seventh on the defensive end, allowing just 19.4 I’ll point out that the Steelers have seen the total go under the number in six of eight on the road this year and in five of eight after two or more consecutive victotires, while the Chiefs have seen the total dip below the posted number in six of eight at home and in all six this year after two or more consecutive victories. I think we’ll see more of a “chess match” today, where field position becomes paramount. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-17 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 148 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Div Round Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 4:40 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday evening. |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots -15.5 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 129 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* AFC SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New England Patriots (8:15 EST). The 9-7 Houston Texans are in New England to take on the 14-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the favorites. Houston managed to get by Oakland 27-14 last week, while the Pats come in rested after enjoying a first round bye. In Week 2 the Patriots annihilated the Texans 27-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger lop-sided beatdown tonight. In that game Jacoby Brissett was at QB for New England, while Brock Osweiler had 196 yards, zero TD’s and one INT for Houston. Looking good against a Raiders team that was down to its third string rookie QB is one thing, it’s obviously quite another in facing Tom Brady and company at Foxborough in January. Note that the Texans average just 17.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. Houston’s defense was its strong point, finishing by allowing 20.5 PPG, ranked 11th. That defense though is about to be tested by New England’s third ranked offense which posted 27.6 PPG. In the win over Houston in Week 3, LeGarrette Blount had 105 yards and two TD’s. But as good as the offense is for New England, the Pats’ defense was even better, conceding just 15.6 PPG, ranked first overall. And note, that defense was especially strong against the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Texans’ Lamar Miller. I’ll point out that Houston is just 2-5 ATS on the road this year, while New England is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks off. I simply can’t see Osweiler mustering any sort of offensive attack today as he and the Texans are going to be out of their element in chilly Foxborough. The bottom line is, I’m expecting a huge performance from Brady as he looks to send a message to the rest of the league. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST). The 10-5-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Atlanta to take on the 11-5 Falcons in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I played on Seattle last week in its destruction of the Lions and suffice it to say, I expect the playoff tested Seahawks to carry that momentum over here and give the home side everything it can handle. Seattle’s defense looked great in the 26-6 win over Detroit. It’s going to have to be sharp once again in facing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons. Remember though, when these two played in Week 6, it was the Hawks that scored the 28-26 outright victory. Seattle had three rushing TD’s in the win, while Ryan threw for three for ATL. In the win over Detroit the Seahawks’ defense gave up just two field goals. QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 30 for 224 yards and two TD’s. RB Thomas Rawls had 161 yards on 27 carries and I’m expecting him to have a big day against the Falcons’ suspect line. Note that Seattle ranks 21st in the NFL on the offensive end in averaging 22.1 PPG. The Seahawks though concede just 18.2, ranked third overall. That defense will once again be put to the test as the Falcons average 33.8 PPG, ranked first in the league. As mentioned above though, the defense has been a disaster all season, ranked 28th against the pass and 27th overall in conceding 25.4 PPG. I’ll point out that Seattle is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog, while ATL is just 8-18 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favroite (including just 1-3 ATS in its last four). I think that Wilson and company have a big opportunity to put some points on the board and hang with Ryan down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Giants (4:40 EST). The 11-5 New York GIants are in Green Bay to take on the 10-6 Packers and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. New York won three of its last four to finish with an 11-5 record, while Green Bay won its final six games to take the NFC North. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home in Week five. Aaron Rodgers had 259 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s, while Eli Manning had 199 passhing yards, one TD and no INT’s. New York gets the job done on the defensive end and I think its underrated unit will prove to be the difference today. Last year the Giants had the 30th ranked defense, but this season the unit allows 17.8 PPG, ranked second overall. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers finished the season with a 40:7 TD to INT ratio. The run game struggled with injuries all year, so they’ll clearly be putting all their eggs in one basket this weekend, committed to the passing game. Green Bay finished ranked 31st against the pass this season and would go on to allow 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st overall. I’ll point out that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival, while Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. Manning will have a big day against this weak Packers’ secondary and while he’s had a great run to this point, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers having such a productive day against the Giants’ top ranked unit. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:05 EST). The 10-6 Miami Dolphins are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-5 Steelers and for a number of different reasonss, I think this one favors the home side. Miami would win three of its last four to secure a spot, while Pittsburgh won its final seven games to take the AFC North. In Week six, Miami beat Pittsburgh 30-15. Suffice it to say, it’s now payback time for the Steelers! Miami lost 35-14 to the Pats last week. Backup QB Matt Moore was decent, going 24 of 34 for 205 yards, one TD and two INT’s. RB Jay Ajayi will clearly be leaned upon heavily here, he’d finish with 1,272 rushing yards and eight TD’s. The Fish would finish the regular season averaging 22.7 PPG, ranked 17th overall. The defense was weak, conceding 23.8 PPG, ranked 18th and just got burned by three passing TD’s to the Pats last week. Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger finished with 3,819 yards and a 29:13 TD to INT ratio. Pittsburgh would finish the year averaging 24.9 PPG, good for 11th overall. The defense was also decent, conceding 20.4, ranked tenth in the league. I’ll point out that Miami is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game and just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home playoff contests. Pittsburgh has the edge on both sides of the ball in this one. Moore has been decent, but the pressure gets dialed up considerably this week. I think the Dolphins finally have a letdown here and the home side pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Wildcard GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST). The 9-7 Detroit Lions are in Seattle to take on the 10-5-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit backed its way into the postseason, losing its final three of the year to finish in second place in the NFC North. Seattle was 3-3 over its final three games. When these teams met in Week 4 last year, Seattle came out on top 13-10. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger rout today. Detroit could have won the division and secured a first round bye with a win over the Packers in Week 17, but QB Matt Stafford struggled again. Stafford had an overall good year, finishing with 4,327 passing yards and a 24:10 TD to INT ratio, but the run game struggled. In all the Lions would finish ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.6 PPG. Defensively the team is average as well, conceding 22.4 PPG, ranked 13th. Seattle is back in the playoffs for a fifth straigh tseason. QB Russell Wilson had 4,219 yards and a 20:11 TD to INT ratio. WR Doug Baldwin made 94 catches for 1,128 receiving yards. In the end the Hawks averaged 22.1 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while conceding just 18.2, ranked third. I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Seattle is 5-3 ATS its last eight at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. It’s going to be cold in Seattle on Saturday night and there’s no question that the conditions favor the home side. I think the Hawks’ defense will be the difference maker today and expect Stafford and company to once again have a hard time finding any consistency. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 36.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Raiders/Texans (4:35 EST). The 12-4 Oakland Raiders are in Houston to take on the 9-7 Texans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Not many will be expecting a higher-scoring affair, as the Raiders will have to get the job done without starting QB Derek Carr, who went down with a devastating season-ending injury in Week 16. Third string QB Connor Cook, who threw for 150 yards, one TD and one INT in Denver last week, will be the first ever QB in league history to make his first start in the playoffs. Expect Oakland to lean heavily on RB Latavius Murray, who finished the year with 788 yards and 12 TD’s. Note that Oakland finished the season with the sixth-ranked running game. Cook can play loose and without much pressure. He’s going to have some opportunities. The Texans have a lower-ranked offense, but the Raiders are poor on the defensive end, conceding 24.1 PPG, ranked 20th overall. Houston turns to QB Brock Osweiler after finishing with 2,957 yards and a poor 15:16 TD to INT ratio. Expect the home side to also lean heavily on its star RB, Lamar Miller sat out the last two games of the regular season and will be fresh and ready to go this afternoon. The Texans post just 17.4 PPG, ranked 29th in the league. Defensively the team regressed as the season went on, ending by allowing 20.5 PPG, ranked 11th. I’ll point out though that Oakland has seen the total go over the number in five of its last eight as an underdog, while Hosuton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in two of three this year as a home fav in the three to seven points range. While most go one way, we’re going to go the other as these two teams go for broke and this total sails over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (8:30 EST). The 9-6 Green Bay Packers are in Detroit to take on the 9-6 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This game will determine the winner of the NFC North. Green Bay enters on a five-game win streak, while Detroit comes in on the other end of the spectrum having dropped two in a row. The Packers are riding the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 4,128 yards and 36 TD’s this year. Last week he had 347 yards and four TD’s, as well as scrambling for a fifth in the win over the Vikes. Last week Matt Stafford was just 26 of 46 for 260 yards and an INT in his team’s 42-21 setback to the Cowboys. I think Stafford is regressing and believe he’ll be in for a long day against this amped up Packers’ secondary. And note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in Detroit, while the Lions are interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC North. Stafford’s play has been suffering because of a stagnant run game and I don’t see anything changing this week. Packers’ QB Rodgers on the other hand is on absolute fire right now. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-16 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST). The 9-5 Detroit Lions are in Dallas to take on the 12-2 Cowboys and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Detroit won five-straight before falling to the Giants on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defeated the Bucs 26-20 on Sunday night Football last week and have clinched a first round bye in the playoffs already. It’s a natural letdown spot, but also note that the team has already statetd that it will rest any starters which it deems in risk of any sort of injury and it’s even been rumored that backup QB Tony Romo could see some action in the second half. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford struggled last week, but I’m expecting a bounce back here as Dallas ranks 28th in defending the pass this season. The combination of RB Ezekiel Elliot and QB Dak Prescott, along with a Top 10 defensive unit and arguably the best offensive line in the league makes the Cowboys one of the favorites at this point to win Super Bowl 51. But as mentioned off the top, Dallas has already sewn up its positioning, so a mental letdown in this spot isn’t too difficult to imagine happening. I’ll also point out that Detroit is 5-3 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Dallas is just 3-4 ATS against clubs with winning records and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 when playing the role of favorite. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points, play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-16 | Broncos v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). The 8-6 Denver Broncos are in Kansas City to take on the 10-4 Chiefs on Christmas Day and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Denver comes in off a disheartening 16-3 home loss to New England, while KC also enters off a brutal 19-17 setback to the Titans last week. But if recent history is an evidence, then the Chiefs have to be liking their chances for a bounce back performance here, as they’d beat the Broncos in Denver 30-27 in OT in Week 12. The Broncos started the season strong, but have been consistently inconsistent over the last two months. Last week QB Trevor Siemian had 283 yards, no TD’s and one INT. RB Jordan Norwood would fumble the ball twice, part of three total turnovers in the game for the defending champs. The defense continues to be Denver’s strong point, last week holding Tom Brady to just 188 passing yards and no TD’s. The unit concedes just 18.4 PPG overall. But I think that defense has a letdown here against the dangerous Chiefs offense which is itching to take out its frustrations on someone after last week’s collapse. KC actually had a 17-7 halftime lead, but was unable to score in the second half against Tennesse and it eventually blew it. QB Alex Smith was just 15 of 28 for 163 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. I like Smith to bounce back here though, note that the Chiefs average 22.8 PPG, which ranks them 15th overall. But the biggest difference maker for me today is KC’s underappreciated defensive unit, one which concedes just 19.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. And from a trend based stand point, this one absolutely sets up great for the home side, as note that Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games, while KC is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. Denver’s defense is amazing, but as good as it is, is as bad as the offense is, managing just one TD over the last two games combined. And now the Broncos face one of the best defenses in the league in a critical game on national TV on its own field (note that KC has given up just one passing TD over its last three outings). All five of the Chiefs home victories this year have come by at least five points and I expect that and the rest of the trends listed above, to continue on Christmas Day. Play on Kansas City as my 2016/17 NFL Game Of The Year! Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST). The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago. Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league. Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent. I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night. The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!). The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs. It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:25 EST). The 10-4 New York Giants are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-9 Eagles and despite having been eliminated from contention already, I think this one favors the home side. New York is looking to grab the top wildcard spot in the NFC, but plays its final two games of the year on the road, where it’s just 3-3 so far. The Giants most recently beat the Lions 17-6 at home on Sunday, but the Eagles also play with revenge today after dropping the first meeting of the year 28-23. New York’s weak point is its offense. Last week Eli Manning was 20 of 28 for 201 yards, two TD’s and no picks. But on the season the offense averages just 320.6 YPG, including only 81.2 on the ground. The Giants get the job done on the defensive end, conceding just 17.9 PPG. Philadelphia had a chance to keep its playoff hopes alive last week, but QB Carson Wentz’s pass to Jordan Matthews for a two point conversion was tipped at the line. I think the Eagles and Wentz come out fired up this week. RB Ryan Mathews had 128 yards on 20 carries and a TD. The Eagles rank ninth overall in rushing yards with 112.9 per game, but are just 24th in passing YPC at 227.5. Defensively they’re ranked in the middle of the pack, conceding 344.2 YPG, 12th overall. I’ll point out that New York is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 4-2 ATS this year when playing in front of the home town crowd. The Eagles won’t be rolling over today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). The 5-8 Carolina Panthers are in the nation’s capital to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Panthers have been relegated to the spoiler role, while Washington is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Washington is primed for a big day in front of the home town crowd in my opinion after dropping two of its last three contests by single-digit margins on the road. Carolina will most likely be without star LB Luke Kuechly once again. Note that the Panthers have only won once on the road this year. In last week’s home win over San Diego, Cam Newton posted an unspectacular 160 yards passing, one TD and a pick. Carolina looked pretty good defensively, but the secondary has been “hit-or-miss” all season. And that secondary will be tested early and often by Washington QB Kirk Cousins, who has over 4,000 yards passing this year. I’ll point out that Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. It’s do or die for the Redskins and I think Cousins will be able to easily exploit the Panthers’ third worst pass defense in the NFL. I look for the visitors go through the motions today and for the motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:30 EST). The 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Dallas to take on the 11-2 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucs are poised for a letdown here after their big divisional win at home over the Saints last Sunday (16-11), while the Cowboys are primed for a bounce back after falling 10-7 on the road to the Giants on Sunday night. Last week’s win was Tampa’s fifth in a row. QB Jameis Winston had an unspectacular 184 yards, zero TD’s and zero INT’s. RB Doug Martin had 66 yards off 23 carries and one TD. WR Mike Evans had four catches for 42 yards. Tampa now faces two tough road games to end the year, this week in Dallas and then next Sunday in New Orleans. It’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that divisional contest. Granted the Bucs looked pretty good defensively, holding Drew Brees to 257 passing yards while also grabbing three INT’s, but those types of performances have been few and far between for Tampa this season though and now the unit will have its hands full with a determined Dak Prescott and Cowboys teams which faltered for the first time last weekend. Prescott was just 17 of 37 for 165 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Dez Bryant had just one catch for ten yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the lone bright spot, finishing with 107 yards off 24 carries. The Bucs defense will be tested by the sixth ranked offensive unit which averages 26.2 PPG. The Cowboys continued their strong defensive play last weekend, holding Eli Manning to 193 passing yards and allowed a total of just 93 rushing yards as well. Note that Dallas concedes just 18.3 PPG, ranked fifth overall. I’ll point out that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 1-4 ATS off a win against a division rival, while Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home and 3-1 ATS off a divisional contest. I like Prescott and company to bounce back at home and as mentioned off the top, in my professional opinion the table is set for a letdown for the visitors. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Jets (8:25 EST). The 8-5 Miami Dolphins are in New York to take on the 4-9 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Last week New York came from behind to beat San Francisco 23-17 in OT last week, while Miami beat the Cards 26-23 at home. Note that the Jets play with revenge today after the Fish beat them 27-23 in Week 9. Miami’s win last week came at a big price though, as starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury and didn’t return. He’s now been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Matt Moore took over in relief and he was 3 of 5 for 47 yards. Moore has only attempted 30 passes over the last three seasons. RB Jay Ajayi has struggled over the last month and had just 48 yards off 20 carries. So for the Dolphins average 21.6 PPG and concede 23.2. Bryce Petty got the start at QB last week and he’d go 23 of 35 for 257 yards, no TD’s and one INT in the Jets’ come from behind win. RB Bilal Powell had 145 yards and two TD’s. New York ranks near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball, but it looked a lot better in all phases last week, especially on the defensive end, holding Colin Kaepernick to just 120 passing yards. I’ll point out that Miami is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December and just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus the division, while New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine contests played in December and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division. I think the loss of Tannehill is significant. I also think that Petty and the Jets looked a lot better in the second half of their victory last week and expect them to carry that momentum over here. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks -15 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:25 EST). The 4-9 LA Rams are in Seattle to take on the 8-4-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is in dissary after firing head coach Jeff Fisher, who was let go after the team lost its fourth straight and eighth in its last nine. Most recently the Rams were hammered 42-14 at home by Atlanta. Seattle is looking to bounce back after a 38-10 defeat at snowy Lambeau last weekend and it’ll also be out to atone for a 9-3 loss to LA back on September 18th. The Hawks have caught LA at the most opportune of times, as note that the Rams have been outscored 117-45 in their last three games. Rams’ rookie QB Jared Goff has now completed just 55.1 percent of his passs for 744 yards, four TD’s and five picks. RB Todd Gurley has taken a major step back in his second year, having just 740 rushing yards and five TD’s on 3.3 yards per carry. Russell WIlson struggled last week in Green Bay, going 22 of 39 for 240 yards, one TD and a career high five INT’s. At 8-4-1 though, the Seahawks are looking pretty good in the NFC West and they’ll now look to return to form in front of the home town crowd. Note that Seattle still ranks among the best in the league on the defensive end, conceding just 17.8 PPG I’ll point out that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Seattle is 3-0 ATS in its last three “Thursday Night” games and 2-1 ATS in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I expect Wilson and the Hawks to bounce back in a big way and think that LA struggles with consistency on both sides of the ball and in the coaching transition. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST). The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in New England to take on the 10-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore has won two straight, most recenlty crushing Miami last weekend. QB Joe Flacco had four TD’s and 381 passying yards. Beating Ryan Tannehill and the Fish is one thing, imposing your will over Tom Brady and the No. 6 ranked offense in total yards gained is entirely another though. Last week Brady became the all-time winningest QB in the NFL in his team’s 26-10 win over the Rams last week. Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman combined for 16 catches and 183 yards. From a trend based stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the home side, as I’ll point out that Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road, while New England is interestingly 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in its previous contest. Baltimore has done well at home and struggled on the road. I think that trend continues here. After already getting thumped at home by the Seahawks on national TV, I expect Bill Belichick to have his troops focused tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6.5 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). The 7-5 Atlanta Falcons are in LA to take on the 4-8 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA has lost seven of its last eight, but hasn’t thrown in the towel yet, most recently falling to New England. Atlanta is just 3-4 after a 4-1 start and is most recently coming off a frustrating 29-28 home loss to KC last weekend. The Falcons have to be especially deflated after last week’s setback, as after erasing a double-digit deficit to take a 28-27 lead, Chiefs’ safety Eric Bery intercepted the ensuing two-point conversion and returned it for the improbable 29-28 victory. The Rams were in over their heads last week, posting only 25 yards in the first half, before then recovering in the second to make it look somewhat respectable. Jared Goff has now completed 51 of 95 attempts for 509 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s. But thankfully for Goff and the home side, they’re going up against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary today. Goff and company did put up three TD’s against the Saints a couple weeks back, so should also have plenty of opportunity to move the ball today as well. I’ll point out that Atlanta is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite (including only 2-4 ATS this season), while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of 3.5 to seven points. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I look for Goff to play much better in friendlier confines. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 114 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU & ATS start has been put in the ‘rearview mirror,’ as the Eagles are 2-7 in their last nine games, failing to cover any of those seven losses. The Redskins opened 0-2 but then won four in a row. However, Washington is just 2-3-1 over its last six games and at 6-5-1, sits seventh in the NFC, when only six teams make the postseason. These NFC East rivals meet for the second time on Sunday, with Washington winning 27-20 at home back in Week 6. However, the game was not as close as the final score, as the Redskins outgained the Eagles, 493-239 in total yards. The Eagles have currently turned into a bottom-six NFL team, done in by weak skill position players, made even weaker by key injuries and a defense which, after a strong start, has allowed 26 points or more in FIVE of the last six games. Rookie QB Carson Wentz averaged 256.3 YPG through the air with five TDs and zero INTs as the Eagles opened 3-0. He had a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio through five games but over the last seven, has just five TD passes and 10 INTs, earning a QB rating below 76.0 in FIVE of those seven games (it’s just 80.1 for the year). His best WR, Jordan Matthews (57 catches / 686 yards) has ankle issues and missed last week’s game (remains questionable for this one) and leading rusher Ryan Matthews has missed two straight games with a knee issue (is also questionable for this one). The Redskins won the division last year and may be a better team in 2016 but the problem is, the Cowboys have been the NFL’s best team in 2016 at 11-1 and the vastly improved Giants are 8-3. QB Cousins has proven doubters wrong, as he’s completing 67.5% and his 309.1 YPG through tyeh air ranks 2nd in the NFL (21-8 ratio for a QB rating of 99.6). Washington owns a deep group of receivers, as Cousins has targets like DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. It’s an added bonus if star TE Jordan Reed can play after missing last Sunday with a shoulder injury. Note that the Eagles have only six sacks in their last six games and the team's battered secondary has permitted multiple TD passes in SEVEN of their last nine games. Washington’s defense is mediocre at best (24.6 PPG to rank 20th) but the Philly offense has scored 15, 13 and 14 points the last three weeks! The Eagles have ‘hit a wall’ but Washington is still very much alive for a playoff berth. A win here and Washington faces the crumbling 4-8 Panthers and the sad-sack 3-9 Bears the next two weeks. A win here could be the first of a three-game winning streak which would put Washington at 9-5-1 heading into a Week 17 game with the Giants. Not getting ahead of myself but Washington (8-2 ATS in its last 10!) earns a top-rating of 10*s in this Week 14 game. Good luck...Larry |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). Last week the Vikes and Cowboys went down to the wire on Thursday night and all signs point to another close one this week, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The short week is tough at this time of year and it’s twice as hard for the visiting side. At 10-2, Oakland is looking tie up home-field advantage through the playoffs still, but I think it’s going to finally have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere on the national stage. Oakland most recently beat Buffalo 38-24 on Sunday as QB Derek Carr had 260 yards and two scores. RB Latavius Muarry had 20 rushes for 82 yards and two TD’s. Note though that it was the team’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. I think Kansas City is the “hungrier” team today, it’s a game behind Oakland in the AFC West. The Chiefs come in with plenty of momentum, most recently off an OT win in Denver and a victory at Atlanta last week. Note that the Chiefs are hopeful that standout WR Jeremy Maclin will return this week after sitting the last four with a groin injury. I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 ATS this year versus division opponents and 0-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC is 3-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season and 2-1 ATS against the division. A major advantage working in favor of the Chiefs tonight is the weather, as it’s expected to be -8 Celsius or less in Kansas City on Thursday. Oakland isn’t used to performing in those types of conditions. I’m laying the points and expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PRIME-TIME PERFECT STORM is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are in New York to take on the 3-8 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis looks to get back on track after a 28-7 loss on Thanksgiving to the Steelers, one which saw starting QB Andrew Luck sidelined with injury. Luck is back for this one though and he takes on a floundering Jets team which enters off a 22-17 loss at home to the Pats. Note that the Colts play with revenge here after losing 20-7 to New York last season. Last week Indy’ back up QB Scott Tolzien struggled, throwing one TD and two INT’s. But as mentioned off the top, Luck is back and he’s so far had a very good season, with 2,827 yards and a 19:8 TD/INT ratio in ten games played. Note that the Colts average 24.5 PPG, ranked 12th overall. The defense has been the weak point, giving up 27.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Indinapolis’ defense though clearly catches a break this week in facing the Jets’ anemic unit which averages 17.8 PPG, ranked 28th. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked decent last week, but overall he’s been a disaster with a horrible 10:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that the defense concedes 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st. I’ll point out that the Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while New York is interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing road records. The Jets have struggled against the pass all year, conceding an average of 263 passing yards per game and I have hard time seeing that unit slowing down a refreshed Luck. New York has already been eliminated, while Indianapolis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot. I’m backing the “hungrier” side, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Texans v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 113 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 6-5 Houston Texans are in Green Bay to take on the 5-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Houston comes in off a listless 21-13 loss to San Diego last week, while Green Bay got off the schneid with a convincing 27-13 win in Philadelphia on Monday night. Last week Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler struggled with 246 yards, zero TD’s and three INT’s. So far he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 13 picks. WR DeAndre Hopkins has just one 100 yard receiving game this year. Note that RB Lamar Miller had just 57 yards on 19 carries last week. It comes as little surprise to learn that Houston ranks in the bottom of almost every offensive category, the unit averages just 17.6 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The defense has also regressed as the season has progressed and now concedes 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th overall. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers was 30 of 39 last week for 313 yards, two TD’s and no picks. So far Rodgers has 27 TD’s to just seven picks. Davantae Adams had five grabs for 113 yards and two TD’s. The offense averages 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense concedes 26.3 PPG, ranked 25th, but looked a lot better last week in allowing just 292 total to Philadelphia. I’ll point out that Houston is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Green Bay is 3-1 ATS his season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points. I simply can’t see the Texans keeping pace with the Packers and their surging offense, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cowboys/Vikings (8:25 EST). The 10-1 Dallas Cowboys are in Minnesota to take on the 6-5 Vikings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Dallas is confident, having won ten straight games. But success often leads to complancency as well. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, combined with arguably the best offensive line in the league have been spectacular, but the defense has also been very solid. Last week the Cowboys went to-to-toe with the top passing attack in Kirk Cousins and the Redskins on Thanksgiving day and would allow three passing TD’s. Minnesota QB Sam Bradford though does not pose nearly as a big a threat in the passing game this week obviously. In fact, the Vikes rank last in the league in yardage gained per contest. The Vikes can’t run the ball, so Bradford will continue his short crossing routes and dumps, note that he was an incredibly effecient 31 of 37 last week for 224 yards in the 16-13 loss in Detroit on Thanksgiving. I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 17 against clubs with winning records. The reason the Vikes are 6-5 is not because of their offensive play, but because of a Top 5 defensive unit. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet,” play the under. Good luck…Larry |