Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET.
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12-12-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 84-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Iowa St at 8:00 ET.
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12-11-19 | Fresno State v. California +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Cal 10:00 ET.
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12-11-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -1 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Crusher (East) is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET.
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12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Baylor at 9:00 ET.
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12-10-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET.
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12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET.
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12-09-19 | Clippers v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. Oladipo has yet to return but Indiana has won EIGHT of its last 10 (now 15-8 on the season), as it welcomes the LA Clippers to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The LA Clippers made HUGE news during the offseason by bringing in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, but LA has been good but NOT dominant, arriving in Indiana with a 17-7 record. The crosstown Lakers own the West's best record (20-3), while three other West teams are right there with the Clippers, owning just seven losses.LA recovered from a 28-point loss at Milwaukee on Friday to open their six-game road trip, by shooting 52.1 percent from the floor en route to a 135-119 win at Washington on Sunday Kawhi Leonard registered his first double-double in nine games with 34 points and 11 rebounds, while former Pacer Paul George scored 27. Leonard (25.1-7.9-5.2) connected on 12-of-18 from the floor Sunday, after going 8-of-29 in the previous two games. George (23.0-6.2-3.5) made 11-of-21 against the Wizards and is shooting 51.5 in four outings this month. No team can match LA's "one-two punch" off the bench, as guard Lou Williams (20.6 & 6.2 APG) and PF Montrezl Harrell (18.8 & 7.8) are "special." Harrell is averaging 20 points in December and has made at least half his shots from the floor in SEVEN of the last nine games, combining to shoot 61.3 percent during that stretch. Lou Williams poured in 18 points off the bench Sunday, but note that he's just 16 of 44 (36.4%) from the floor the past three games. Oladipo is still not ready to return for Indiana but center Myles Turner (11.0 & 5.4) and SG Jeremy Lamb (16.0 & 5.4) are both back on the court after dealing with ankle sprains and that's great news. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 19.0-4.9-7.7 but also be aware that the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga product is averaging 18.4 & 13.1 on the season, posting double-doubles in each of the last eight games and 16 of his last 17. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.7 PPG. Warren has been the go-to player over the last few weeks, averaging 22.9 points in the last eight games, while shooting 40.5 percent from three-point range overall. Brogdon missed the Pacers' Saturday game at the Knicks with a hand injury and his status for Monday’s contest is uncertain (listed as questionable). That's hardly good news but the Pacers are getting scoring from reserves McDermott (9.4) plus a pair of Holidays, as Aaron is averaging 8.9 PPG and Justin, 7.8. "Load management" is now part of the NBA lexicon and LA's Doc Rivers told The Athletic that Leonard or George could be rested against Indiana, with another three-game stretch in four nights beginning on Wednesday. My guess would be that Kawhi sits, as Paul George will surely want to play against his "old team." Bottom line is that the Clippers have been a poor road team this season (4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS), while the Pacers are 9-2 SU at home (Indiana is a small home dog, so ATS record means little here). The Pacers have won FIVE of their last six overall meetings with the Clippers, who have lost their last THREE here at Indiana. LA's going through a challenging stretch, as this is the team's FIFTH contest in NINE days to open December . Good luck...Larry |
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12-08-19 | Seton Hall v. Iowa State | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Iowa St at 9:00 ET.
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12-08-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -3 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi 76ers at 6:05 ET.
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12-07-19 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 207.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.
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12-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Xavier -6 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Xavier at 5:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin +1 | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (Big Ten) is on Wisconsin at 4:30 ET.
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12-06-19 | Nuggets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET.
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12-06-19 | Providence v. Rhode Island -1 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Rhode Island at 7:00 ET. State rivals Providence and Rhode Island are separated by about 30 miles but the two schools play in different leagues, as Providence is a member of the Big East and Rhode Island a member of the Atlantic-10. However, both schools come off similar years, as the Friars were 18-16 in the 2018-19 season, while the Rams went 18-15. Similarly, each school returned all FIVE starters from a year ago but also of note is that both teams have not gotten off to good starts. Providence has started just 5-4 and Rhode Island has opened 5-3. Providence, predicted to finish fourth in the Big East , just beat Pepperdine 80-77 in the seventh-place game of the Wooden Legacy on Sunday but prior to that, had dropped three in a row to mid-major programs. The Rams' most recent game was also last Sunday, when they put a scare into 7-0 West Va on the road, before settling for an 86-81 loss (more in a bit).All-Big East selection Alpha Diallo hasn't been able to build on his impressive junior campaign. The 6-7 guard struggled for the second straight game in Sunday's close win over Pepperdine, connecting on just 8 of 26 shots (30.8%) in that span. That said, he does lead the team in scoring (13.2) and rebounding (8.9). Returning guards Duke (12.9- 4.6-4.1), White (9.3) and Reeves (6.8) have been joined on the perimeter by have been joined by graduate transfer Pipkins (8.8 & 5.2 APG). The 6-7 Holt (8.7 & 5.2) is happy that 6-10 center Watson is finally back on the court after an injury, as he chipped in 15 points off the bench against the Waves. He has averaged 9.0 PPG in playing the last five games. Rhode Island's Fatts Russell (21.1-4.9-3.5) became the first Ram since Tavorris Bell (2000-01) to score at least 20 points in six straight games, after erupting for a season-high 32 against West Virginia. The 6-8 Cyril Langevine (10.5-10.5) is one of just three A-10 players averaging a double-double. Joining those two in scoring double digits are guards Dowtin (13.9) and Martin (10.6 & 5.3). It's true that Providence has 'owned' this series recently (Friars have won EIGHT of the last nine meetings) but the under-performing Friars look VERY vulnerable in this one. The Friars 'limp' into their annual showdown with the Rams on a 1-6 ATS run, with the team's lone "cover" coming against Merrimack. Rhode Island may be just 5-3 but its losses have come against two unbeatens on the road, at West Va (see above) and at now-No. 3 Maryland (9-0) plus against the SEC's LSU (6-2) in the Jamaica Classic. The Rams are 4-0 SU at home in the early going and get a "break-through win" against the Friars here, moving to 5-0. Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 7:35 ET.
James Harden just keeps piling up HUGE numbers. He recorded his fourth career 60-point outing against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday (he had exactly 60 in Houston's 158-11 home win over the Hawks) and followed with 50 points during Tuesday's 135-133 double-overtime loss at the San Antonio Spurs. Tuesday's effort was Harden's 21st career game with 50 or more points but as noted, it didn't result in a victory, as Houston blew a 22-point,second-half lead. Harden made all 24 of his free-throw attempts against San Antonio but struggled from the floor as he was 11-of-38 overall, including 4-of-20 from three-point range. 13-7 Houston will head north on Thursday to take on the 15-5 Toronto Raptors, who are coming off an OT loss as well. PG Kyle Lowry returned Tuesday after missing 11 games with a fractured left thumb but had just 12 points on 2-of-18 shooting while missing all 11 of his three-point attempts. Toronto suffered its first home loss of the season, after winning a franchise-record NINE straight home games to begin the season. Harden is averaging 42.6 points over the past five games to raise his season mark to 39.5 PPG (also 6.1 RPG and 7.8 APG). PG Russell Westbrook has adapted to a complementary role (21.9-7.8-7.1) and center Clint Capela returned from a two-game absence due to illness and made all nine field-goal attempts while recording 22 points and 21 rebounds for his third 20-20 outing of the campaign. He's having a "career season," averaging 15.1 PPG and RPG. However, the Rockets miss Eric Gordon's scoring 'punch' (he has a career 16.6 PPG average). House (12.4) is getting extra minutes but he's no Gordon. The Raptors saw Kawhi "take his talents to LA" after leading the Raptors to the NBA title last season but Toronto has done just fine without him. The Raptors also kept 'chugging along' with Lowry (20.7-4.4-7.0) and Ibaka (13.8 & 6.5) sidelined. Both have returned, Ibaka two games ago and Lowry in that Tuesday home loss to Miami (final was 121-100 but that came in OT). Ibaka scored 13 points in each of his two games back, while averaging 6.5 PPG (it was like he never left). That was NOT the case for Lowry (see above). However, the five-time All-Star did record 11 assists with only one turnover (note: he's well-known for his shooting slumps). The 6-9 Siakam (25.1 & 8.6) has played at an All Star level and guard Fred VanVleet (18.7-3.8-7.4) has proven his Finals performance against the Warriors was no fluke. Back-up guard Powell (13.4 & 4.1) has taken advantage of extra "PT" with Lowry out and SF Anunoby (10.9 & 5.5) is proving he's an NBA regular. Is the Harden/Westbrook pairing really working in Houston? In the team's 2-OT loss at San Antonio, while Harden was scoring 50 points (and going 11 of 38 from the floor), Westbrook produced his 142nd career triple-double (19-10-10) but hoisted up a season-high 30 shots, making only SEVEN! On the season, Westbrook is shooting only 41.0%, including 22.9% on threes. Houston is 13-7 but just 10-10 ATS, while Toronto is 15-5 and 13-7 ATS (8-2 ATS at home). I'm playing Toronto, the more balanced team. Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* play is on North Carolina at 9:30 ET.
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12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
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12-04-19 | Heat v. Celtics -5.5 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Miami Heat are coming off a 121-110 overtime win over the Raptors at Toronto on Tuesday. Jimmy Butler scored the first eight points in the extra session, as part of his fifth career triple-double as Miami improved to 15-5 overall but the Heat are just a modest 7-5 on the road. The 14-5 Celtics are coming off a 1-1 trip to the New York City area over the weekend, losing 112-107 to the Nets at Barclays Center on Friday but bouncing back with a 113-104 win over the Knicks at MSG on Sunday. Butler finished with 22 points, a season-high 13 rebounds and 12 assists in the impressive win at Toronto. He leads the team averaging 19.0-6.0-6.7 but Miami's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are averaging 20-plus minutes per game, with SEVEN averaging in double digits (Olynyk just misses at 9.1). Duncan Robinson (11.7) had 22 points against the Raptors while making 6-of-9 three-pointers (he's now 14-of-22 from long distance over a three-game span). However, undrafted rookie Kendrick Nunn (15.7 PPG) is trending in the other direction, missing all nine of his three-point attempts in the win over the Raptors to fall to 2-for-20 over the same three-game stretch. More bad news comes Miami's way in that PG Dragic (15.9 & 5.0 APG) sat out Tuesday's game and already has been ruled out for the visit to Boston. Jayson Tatum scored 30 points and Jaylen Brown added 28 in Sunday's win at Madison Square Garden, as Boston overcame Smart's scoreless 20 minutes and a 6-for-18 shooting effort by Kemba Walker. That said, Walker has more than filled the 'hole' left at PG by Kyrie leaving for the Nets, averaging 21.6-4.7-50. Tatum (21.1 & 7.1) is now in his third season and constantly getting better plus with Hayward sidelined, Brown's roll has become more important (he's averaging 19.3 & 7.1). Some bad news is that the Celtics expect to play Wednesday without guard and team leader Marcus Smart (11.9-3.4-4.7), who exited Sunday's win over the Knicks with an oblique injury. Smart, also dealing with a cold, didn't practice Tuesday and has been labeled doubtful against Miami. "He's only going to play if he's 100 percent or close," head coach Brad Stevens said. Miami handed Toronto its first home loss in 10 chances this season, narrowing the list of NBA teams undefeated at home to three, Interestingly, all three of those teams play in the East. Phily is 10-0 at home and the other two are playing in this contest, Miami (8-0) and Boston (7-0). As noted above, the Heat are a modest 7-5 SU on the road and expecting them to win at Toronto and Boston on consecutive night's is "too big of an ask." Miami has lost three straight to Boston and 11 of its last 14 meetings with team. Lay the points with the Celtics. Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue OVER 102 | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Virginia/Purdue Over at 7:15 ET.
Purdue clearly misses Edwards, although Proctor (14.6) and Hunter (10.3) make a pair of quality guards. The 7-3 Haarms (11.7 & 6.4) and the 6-9 Wheeler (6.4 & 7.1) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all seven opponents to 70 points or less to start the season (58.4 PPG on the season to ranks 18th nationally). Haarms went 6-of-6 from the floor en route to a team-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds against Florida State, but it wasn't enough as the Boilermakers were doomed by a 33.9 percent shooting performance from the floor in the 63-60 OT loss. Aaron Wheeler and Evan Boudreaux (4.4 & 3.3) combined for six points on 2-of-18 shooting, including 0-for-8 from three-point range, as Purdue missed seven of its eight attempts from the floor and had five turnovers in overtime.
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET.
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12-03-19 | Magic v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 127-120 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southeast) is on the Was Wizards at 7:05 ET.
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12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET.
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12-02-19 | Clemson v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Minnesota at 9:00 ET.
The Big Ten-ACC Challenge gets underway Monday with a pair of games, including 5-2 Clemson visiting 3-4 Minnesota. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but then won FIVE in row, including erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU 62-60 on Nov 24th in Las Vegas. However, the Tigers then lost two nights later 71-67 to Colorado, which is 6-0 and ranked 21st in the most recent AP poll. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 73-68 home loss to DePaul (Nov 29) and already had losses to Oklahoma, Butler and Utah on their resume. The loss to Colorado was the first time this season that the Tigers had allowed an opponent to reach 70 points. "Our guys are getting better," head coach Brad Brownell told reporters. "We're fighting. We've got to get better at executing a few things, but we're getting there. Our players work hard for us, and I love coaching them." 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (11.9 & 8.9) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack (15.4 & 5.6), a grad transfer from Alabama. Sophomore guard John Newman III (11.6 PPG) and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes (10.1 & 3.4 APG) are Clemson's other double digit scorers. Clemson's strength is its defense, allowing 61.0 PPG (41st) on 37.5% shooting (34th). Richard Pitino will sure miss guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. However, Pitino likes his team and the team's 3-4 start is unacceptable. The 6-10 Oturu (17.0 & 11;9) is off to a strong start and is joined up front by the 6-9 Demir (7.7 & 3.7), a graduate transfer from Drexel. Minnesota owns an excellent backcourt trio, led by PG Carr (13.0-5.9-6.3), joined by Willis (12.9) and Kalscheur (11.7). Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. This game IS important, as Minnesota opens Big Ten play with a game at Iowa (Dec 9) and the home to Ohio St (7-0 and ranked 10th) on Dec 15. Clemson is beatable and is traveling back from a three-day stay in Las Vegas, If Minnesota can't win here, it will be a LONG season for "little Ricky." Good luck...Larry |
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12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Crusher is on the Tor Raptors at 6:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Pelicans at 5:05 ET.
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11-29-19 | Utah State v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
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11-29-19 | VCU +3 v. Purdue | Top | 56-59 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on VCU at 9:30 ET. Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams have opened teh current season 6-0 and will take their No. 20 ranking in the latest AP poll into the Emerald Coast Classic (Niceville, Fl) with 3-2 Purdue. The Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll but after a 79-57 win over Green Bay, Purdue lost at home 70-66 to Texas and then 65-55 at Marquette.Home wins of 93-49 over Chicago St and 81-49 over Jacksonville St prove little. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team is guards Evans (15.2 & 3.2 APG)) and Jenkins (10.0) plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (11.5 & 10.5). Five guards get time in teh backcourt along with Evans and Jenkins, chipping in between 4.0 and 7.0 PPG. The 6-6 Vann (8.0 & 2.5) is really the only other frontcourt contributor helping Santos-Silva. "Shaka Ball” is back at VCU, even though Shaka Smart has been at Texas since the 205-16 season. Rhoades is a Shaka 'disciple' and the Rams are again employing withering, relentless pressure for 40 minutes as they did for the best of the Shaka years. VCU is among the nation’s leaders in TO margin and TOs forced (21 per game!). Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0). The Boilermakers have nowhere near VCU's depth. Guards Proctor (15.6-3.4-3.2) and Hunter (10.0 & 3.4) are the biggest backcourt contributors, while the 7-3 Haarms (12.0 & 6.6) and the 6-9 Wheeler (7.6 & 8.0) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all five opponents to fewer than 70 points to start the season (58.0 PPG on the season to rank 16th nationally). 'Plodding' Purdue has already lost to the real Shaka Smart and Texas at Mackey Arena back on Nov 9 and I expect them to be at LEAST a step or two behind Rhoads' "Shaka 2.0" team. VCU is the better team getting points. Luv it! Good luck...Larry |
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11-29-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET.
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11-29-19 | Michigan v. Gonzaga -2.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Atlantis Championship Showdown play is on Gonzaga at 2:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who would have to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but now finds itself in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis after beating Iowa St (83-76) and No. 6 North Carolina (73-64). Waiting in the title game will be 8-0 Gonzaga, which is ranked No. 8 in the latest AP poll. You may have heard of Gonzaga and its head coach, Mark Few. When Few arrived in Spokane, the "Zags" had been to two NCAA tourneys in school history. All Few has done is go 20-for-20, entering this season on a streak of FIVE consecutive Sweet 16 appearances (reaching at least the Elite 8 in THREE of those five). Gonzaga eased past Southern Miss 94-69 on Wednesday but then needed OT to get past No. 11 Oregon 73-72 on Thanksgiving (this just in...the Ducks are an excellent team!). Michigan's style under Howard has been to push the offensive tempo. The win over North Carolina marked SIX straight in which the Wolverines scored at least 70 points, as the Wolverines are SIXTH in the nation in field-goal percentage (52.7) and 34th in scoring (82.5 PPG). PG Simpson is the team leader (12.2-4.5-9.2) but junior guard Brooks connected on 9-of-14 from the floor, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc on Thursday to score 24 points. That raised his scoring average on the season to 13.7, second on the team behind 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers (16.3). 7-1 senior center Jon Teske has chipped in 12.3 PPG plus adds a team-best 8.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Gonzaga lost a 'ton' off last year's team, including a pair of 6-8 forwards who both went in the first round of the NBA draft, Hachimura (19.7 & 6.5) and Clarke (16.9 & 8.6). Also moving on were guards Norvelll (14.9-4.3-3.1) and Perkins (11.0 & 6.3 APG) but the refrain at Gonzaga is, "no worries." Gonzaga is 'loaded' up front with the 6-11 Petrusev (Serbia), who leads with 17.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG. The 6-7 Kispert (14.1), the 6-10 Tillie (11.7 & 5.7 in just three games) plus 6-10 freshman Timme adds 11.1 & 5.6. A&M transfer Gilder (11.0), No. Texas transfer Woolridge (9.5-5.5-3.9) and returning guard Ayayi (9.3-6.5-3.6) are the main contributors on the perimeter. Gonzaga is averaging 87.1 PPG (7th) on 50.9% shooting (13th), while allowing 61.9 PPG (plenty good enough with its scoring output at the other end). Michigan came to Paradise Island in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis unranked, but can leave with a championship. However, after upsetting North Carolina, I don't see back-to-back wins over top-10 teams being 'in the cards.' The Bulldogs led Oregon by 17 points in the early going and by five points with a minute left in regulation, before having to rally in overtime. Mark Few has too many options and could counter a fast Michigan team with a big lineup, a strategy the Bulldogs employed against Oregon. Few often paired the 6-foot-10 Tillie with 6-foot-11 Petrusev, utilizing the former in the high post and wing and Petrusev on the low block. Kudos to Howard's fast start but he's got a LONG way to go to match Few's coaching acumen. Good luck..Larry |
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11-28-19 | Creighton v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 52-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on San Diego St at 10:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Oregon at 9:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Wichita St at 8:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Heat v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET.
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11-26-19 | Colorado -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on Colorado at 11:30 ET. Tad Boyle took the Colorado job in 2010-11 and won 20-plus games in FIVE of his first six seasons (three NCAA appearances). However, mediocre 19-15 and 17-15 seasons followed, before Colorado went 23-13 last year. The Buffs didn't make the Big Dance last season but all FIVE starters returned and big things were expected. The Buffs have opened 4-0 and and are currently ranked 23rd in the AP's latest poll. Colorado played an 'ugly' first half last night against Wyoming (game was tied at 15-all) but the Buffs pulled away for a 56-41 victory. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but has since won FIVE in row, after erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU, 62-60. I really like this Colorado team, which is holding opponents to 54.5 PPG (11th) and is led by three double-digit scorers. The 6-7 Tyler Bey (14.0 & 12.0 ) is a terrific player and is joined in double figures by PG Wright (12.8-4.0-3.8) and the 6-7 Schwartz (12.5). Some inside 'muscle' comes from the 6-8 Bailey (7.8 & 7.3) and the 6-7 Siewert (6.8 & 5.5), who comes off the bench. 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (10.0 & 8.2) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but led Sunday night's comeback by scoring all 13 of his points in the second half, to go with 12 rebounds. Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack, a grad transfer from Alabama. He scored 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win over TCU. He leads the team in scoring (16.2) while also shooting 44.7 percent (17-of-38) from three-point range. Sophomore guard John Newman III and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes are tied for second in scoring (10.8) and have combined for 32 assists and 14 steals. Just how good is Clemson? The loss to Va Tech is understandable (Hokies are 6-0 and just beat Mich St) but before scoring the final 15 points of the game Sunday to send the contest to OT (and win), the Tigers' previous four wins all came at home over Coppin St, South Carolina-Upstate, Lehigh and Delaware St. I don't see Clemson "coming back" against this talented, balanced and excellent defensive team in Colorado. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-19 | Dayton -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Dayton at 8:00 ET.
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11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -3 | Top | 78-51 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Late-Breaker is on Bradley at 8:30 ET.
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11-25-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET.
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11-25-19 | Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Loyola-Chicago at 1:30 ET.
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southwest) is on the Hou Rockets at 3:35 ET.
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11-23-19 | Blazers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blax\zers at 8:05 ET.
Portland won 53 games last season and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. At 5-11 to open the current season, Portland is at least in the running for this season's "Most Disappointing Team." It sure hasn't helped that center Jusef Nurkic is not expected back until mid-Feb or that promising power forward Zach Collins' shoulder will keep him sidelined until March. The team's best player, Lillard (28.6-4.9-7.1), has missed the last two games with a back issue (is listed as probable here) plus center Hassan Whiteside (14.9 & 12.0) has fought nagging injuries all season and is listed as questionable for this one. The Blazers opened this six-game road trip with a win at San Antonio (everyone is beating the Spurs these days!) but then have lost at Houston, New Orleans and Milwaukee, while allowing an average of 128 points! The Blazers wrap up the trip with this game in Cleveland and then a Monday game at Chicago. The 4-11 Cavs are in a three-way tie with the Knicks and Hawks for the East's worst record and only the sad-sack 3-14 Warriors own a worse record in the entire NBA. Cleveland welcomes Portland to town on a SIX-game losing streak, after getting routed 143-101 at Dallas on Friday. Porzingis sat for Dallas but the magnificent Doncic had 30 points and 14 assists (missed a triple-double with seven rebounds), as the Cavs allowed Dallas to shoot 58% from the floor, including a blistering 20 of 37 on threes. That's some defense? It will sure help if Lillard returns to join McCollum, who is averaging 22,3-4.6-3.9. Hood has started all 14 games he has played in for the Blazers, averaging 11.4 PPG. A sign Portland may be desperate is that the team signed 'Melo, who did not play all last season. He's averaged 14.0 & 5.0 in two games but when has this guy ever been a "good influence" on a team? PF Kevin Love (17.9 & 11.8) and center Thompson (14.1 & 9.9) are solid players for the Cavs plus second-year guard Sexton (17.7) is proving he belongs in the NBA. Clarkson chips in 13.5 PPG off the bench. Neither team has shown much interest in playing much defense these days (see above). The Cavs are going nowhere this season, as Cleveland's supposed best player (leader?) is Love. The last time I checked, he was averaging ONE offensive rebound per game. The Cavs' six-game slide is no fluke, as there will be plenty of losing the rest of the way for this team. Meanwhile, the Blazers WILL get things straightened out. Even without a healthy roster, the Blazers will "take care of" the Cavs, who are playing on back-to-back nights for just the second time this season. The first time saw them lose 123-105 at the pathetic Knicks. The Blazers beat the Cavs 129-112 in Portland last season and 123-110 in Cleveland. That ounds about right to me, here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on St John's at 2:30 ET.
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11-22-19 | Temple v. USC -10 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on USC at 11:00 ET. Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has FOUR teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and Washington). However, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points, for the first time since 1963, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points. The 5-0 Trojans will try to keep that streak alive on Friday night when they host unbeaten Temple (3-0). The Owls return three starters and 10 lettermen from a 23-10 team that lost to Belmont in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament. However, longtime head coach Fran Dunphy (who led Penn and Temple to a combined 17 NCAA appearances), finally retired. Yes, Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll but comes in off a 70-65 Big-5 win over La Salle on Saturday plus also has won home games over Drexel (70-62) and Morgan State (75-57). Junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis posted his third straight double-double vs LaSalle and is averaging 18.1-11.0-4.3. Senior guard Quinton Rose (16.0) and fellow guard Alanui Moore (10.3) join Pierre-Louis in double figures.The frontcourt consists of the 6-7 Perry (7.7), the 6-7 Moorman (5.0 & 6.3) and the 6-11 Damion Moore (4.0 & 5.5). USC is coming in off a 91-84 home victory over Pepperdine on Tuesday that saw 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu score a career-high 33 points, the most by a Trojan freshman since O.J. Mayo scored 37 in a 2008 game against Arizona State. Okongwu (18.2 & 9.4) helped lead Chino Hills High School to three state titles and is already a star in LA. However, Okongwu is just part of an impressive Trojan front line that also includes 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (16.4 & 9.8), who was a preseason first team All-Pac-12 pick, as well as 6-10 freshman Isaiah Mobley (9.4 & 5.0), a McDonald's All-American who had 14 points in 18 minutes off the bench against the Waves. Senior guard Mathews (11.8) is a steadying influence and along with Rakocevic, became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark earlier this season. Temple flies a long way for this contest and does not own the quickness nor the SIZE to match the Trojans. Temple already has FOUR players averaging 30-plus minutes and comes in shooting a putrid 39.2% (307th) on the young season. USC is averaging 80.8 PPG and the Trojans are 33-4 SU in their last 37 home non-conference games. Make that 34-4, with tonight's win coming "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 11-4 Houston Rockets will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 10-5 LA Clippers. The two teams met back in Houston on Oct 13, with the Rockets winning 102-93, as James Harden poured in 47 points. However, unlike in that meeting in Houston, when the Clippers take the court tonight against the Rockets, BOTH Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be in the starting lineup. LA's "dynamic duo" were part of a victory in their first time together on the court Wednesday night, as the Clippers survived OT to beat the Celtics 107-104. As for the Rockets, they had an eight-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's 105-95 loss in Denver. It was Houston's lowest scoring output of the season plus James Harden scored "just" 27 points, snapping a streak of at least 36 in EIGHT straight games. Harden only took 16 shots against Denver (in comparison, he hoisted 41 against Minnesota on Saturday), as Houston was just 12-of-38 from three-point range. That said, Harden gave Denver's defense little (no?) credit for Houston's shooting woes. "They just double-teamed every possession," Harden told reporters. "They got lucky. They got away with one. We didn't execute how we needed to." OK, if you say so James. Harden continues to post remarkable numbers (38.4-5.8-7.5) and I guess he and Westbrook (21.8-7.9-6.9) have found a way to work together, However, I'm just not sold (I had Denver on Wednesday). I noted in my Wednesday write up that center Clint Capela (13.9 & 13.7) "is one of the NBA's least appreciated big men," and he scored 12 points while pulling down 21 rebounds in the loss at Denver. Note: He's recorded 20 or more rebounds in five straight games, the best such streak since Ben Wallace of the Pistons also had five straight in March of 2003. However, I also noted on Wednesday that the Rockets are without Eric Gordon (a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career) and that the team's depth is VERY questionable. Leonard (25.8-8.6-5.7) scored 17 points but was just 7-of-20 shooting, while George (28.3-6.3-4.8 in four games) recorded 25 points and eight assists in the successful first pairing in terms of the victory column. "The fact of the matter is we are going to have growing pains, and I think the most positive thing is we understood that," George told reporters afterward. "Nobody was pointing fingers or dropping their heads in huddles. ... At no point was this team ever dysfunctional." While Leonard and George were drawing double teams, Lou Williams (22.5 & 5.7 APG) scored 27 points and Patrick Beverley (7.7-6.9-3.0) had a superb all-around game with a career-best 16 rebounds to go along with 14 points and seven assists. Leonard and George each played 37 minutes against Boston and their fitness could be tested by the fast-paced Rockets as they learn to play with one another. "It's pretty much just finding each other's spots and knowing the plays," Leonard said of potential improvement. "It's still tough. We are both kind of on a minute restriction - hard to get into a flow. But just knowing plays and each other's spots and the language on the defensive end. Repetition is what we need right now." I've NEVER been a fan of Harden or Westbrook and I expect the Clippers to "take care of business" tonight, avenging that Nov 13 loss (sans George). While Houston's depth can be rightly questioned (note: Danuel House, averaging 11.2 PPG, departed the Denver game and is unlikely to play Friday), the Clippers own an OUTSTANDING bench led by Williams (see above), Harrell (18.1 & 7.3) plus Green (8.1 & 7.0in 22 minutes). Green flies a little under the radar, as he's played in all 15 games, scoring in double digits seven times and grabbing 10-plus rebounds three times. It's Kawhi and Paul over James & Russell, with an assist from the LA bench. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -4 | 92-96 | Push | 0 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers in the first round but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kyrie Irving left for Brooklyn and Al Horford for Philly but Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joined an excellent trio of frontcourt players. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season, after winning a seven-game series over the Spurs and then losing one vs the Blazers, led by center Nikola Jokic's incredible playoff numbers (25.1-13.0-8.4). The 11-3 Celtics dropped a 107-104 overtime decision in LA to the Clippers on Wednesday for their second loss in three games, following a 10-game winning streak. "We believe, truly, that we can compete with anybody in this league," PG Marcus Smart said afterward. "But it's going to take every possession. We can't take it for granted. We got to take every possession like it's our last possession and we got to really protect the ball." Also on Wednesday, the 10-3 Nuggets figured out how to slow down James Harden by holding him to 27 points, after he had scored at least 36 in each of the previous eight games. Jokic delivered 27 points and 12 rebounds for his sixth double-double of the season. Boston PG Kemba Walker (22.6-4.9-4.8) has been terrific but he had just 13 points on 4-of-17 shooting against the Clippers. In contrast, standout forward Jayson Tatum (20.9 & 7.4) scored a season-best 30 points in the game. However, the Celtics missed their first 16 three-point attempts, finishing 12-of-45 (26.7%). Brown (18.5 & 7.5) is also having an excellent season, although the loss of Hayward (18.9-7.1-4.1 on 55.5% shooting) will take its toll until he returns (late Dec?). Denver PG Jamal Murray (18.5-4.5-5.2) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis but then scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Wednesday's win over Houston. He has battled consistency issues all season but remains a big part of this team. Jokic checks in averaging 17.2-9.0-5.8 plus the rest of the starting-five are also averaging in double digits. Swingman Barton (14.8 &7.4), PF Millsap (13.8 & 6.1) and SG Harris (10.6) round out the group. Denver's bench may not be quite as 'deep' as last season but PFs Grant (9.2 & 3.4) and Plumlee (6.2 & 5.0) plus PG Morris (6.8 & 3.6 APG) contribute, nightly. This is a tough spot for Boston, playing the final contest of a five-game, eight-day road trip at altitude. Denver ranks third in the NBA in scoring defense (102.3 PPG) and fifth in defending three-pointers (32 percent). "When we're locked in defensively, we're a really good team," Nuggets guard Gary Harris said after the win over Houston and the Nuggets are 7-0 when holding teams under 100 points. The Nuggets won both of last season's meetings with Boston and the fact that Murray scored a career-best 48 points in the meeting here at Pepsi Center should help his "inconsistency." The Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home last season and I expect an 'easy' Denver victory in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Houston v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. |
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11-21-19 | Texas -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 4-0 Texas entered the latest AP poll this past Monday at No. 22 (first time ranked in nearly a year) and will take that ranking to Madison Square Garden to meet 3-1 Georgetown in the 2K Empire Classic. Thursday's game marks just the third meeting between Texas and Georgetown (first since 2012) with the series tied at a game apiece. Texas won last year's NIT, which holds its Final 4 at MSG (Longhorns beat TCU in the semis and Lipscomb in the title game). As for Georgetown, "The Garden" is a VERY familiar venue, as the Hoyas have played roughly 100 games there, most coming in the Big East Tournament. Missing from last year's NIT champs are big men Osetkowski (11.1 & 7.2) and Hayes (10.0 & 5.0), who was a one-and-done (8th overall pick of the 2019 draft by Atlanta). Guard Roach was suspended THREE different times in his stay at Austin but he ended his Texas career by being named the NIT's most outstanding player. All will be missed but Texas has an experienced group of players back. Depth on the perimeter is a strength, led by PG Coleman (14.5-4.5-4.3) and Jones (13.3), who are supported by Ramey (9.0 & 5.3), Febres (8.0) and freshman Williams (5.3). Taking over up front for Osetkowski and Hayes are the 6-8 Liddell (9.3 & 5.0) and the 6-9 Sims (8.3 & 7.3). This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news is, FOUR starters are back, although the loss is a big one. Govan averaged 17.5 & 7.5 in making the all-Big East first team. 7-0 senior Yurtseven (17.0 & 12.5) is Georgetown's best player this season, joined up front by a trio of fowards who have combined to average right about 30 points and 11 rebounds per game. The Hoyas start three guards, PG Akinjo (12.3 & 4.5 APG), McClung (12.3) and Mosley (7.5 & 3.30. Georgetown's three wins have come over 'nobodies,' while its lone loss came 81-66 at home to a Penn St team that was just 14-18 last season. Shaka Smart came to Texas with great fanfare, after a terrific run at VCU (Google it). However, his Texas teams have made just two NCAAs in his first four seasons at Austin, with both teams getting bounced in the first round. Last year's NIT title was 'nice,' but Smart was not hired to win NIT championships. Smart's trademark has always been "team defense" and Texas has held all opponents to 66 points or less, allowing 55.2 PPG (18th) on 36.3% shooting (45th). Texas has won its lone 'test' of the young season, winning 70-66 at then-No. 23 Purdue. A win here and Texas will get a chance at current No. 1 Duke in Friday's tourney championship (assuming the Dookies beat Cal). I look forward to seeing how Texas fares against Duke but first, the Longhorns will have to dispatch Georgetown. My bet says that win comes convincingly! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | San Diego State -5 v. San Diego | Top | 66-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on SD State at 11:00 ET. It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years. However, the team's 21-13 record left them "sitting out" postseason play last year. San Diego welcomes SD St to the Jenny Craig Pavilion off a a 21-15 season that earned them an NIT bid. SD St enters 3-0 to open the current season, while San Diego is off to a 2-3 start. The Aztecs rely on a trio of guards and frontcourt players. The backcourt features Flynn (15.3 & 6.3 APG), Schakel (13.0) and Feagin (10.0), while the frontcourt consists of the 6-6 Mitchell (9.0 & 5.3), the 6-10 Mensah (8.7 & 10.3) and the 6-10 Wetzell (6.0 & 7.0). As always, the Aztecs are a strong defensive team, allowing 58.0 PPG (34th). San Diego lost its top-four scorers from last season and like SD St, relies on three key perimeter players and three more in the frontcourt. Guards Calcaterra (16.8), Hartfield (11.4 & 6.8) and Humphrey (9.0) team with the 6-10 Massalski (11.0 & 5.0), the 6-7 Jean-Marie (8.6 & 8.4) and the 6-7 Floresca (7.0 & 4.4). San Diego may be at home but it is in a tough spot here. The Toreros are averaging just 66.2 PPG (278th) on 40.2% shooting (286th). SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher was an assistant for 18 years under Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then here at SDSU, where he was known as a "head coach in waiting." He took aver at SDSU when Fisher retired and took the Aztecs to an NCAA appearance in 2017-18 but as noted above, fell short of ANY postseason bid last year. I expect this year's team to be back in postseason play and tonight, to avenge last year 's 73-61 loss at home to local rival San Diego. Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -3.5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on UNLV at 10:00 ET. Danny Kaspar led the Texas State Bobcats to a 24-10 record last season (his 1st at San Marcos), the school's most wins in 25 years. Kaspar had the challenge this season of replacing three starters and the Bobcats visit the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 3-2 (more in a little bit). UNLV was unhappy with Marvin Menzies and he was let go after three seasons. The Rebels brought in TJ Otzelberger, who in three seasons at South Dakota St, took the school two to NCAA tourneys, including winning 28 games in the 2017-18 season. However, UNLV has opened a disappointing 2-3. Texas St is led by guards Pearson (15.0 & 4.0) and Harrell (8.4 & 45.0) and its best frontcourt player is the 6-8 Small (12.2 & 8.6), a JC transfer. Six more players are getting 14-plus minutes per game , while chipping in 5.2-to-7.6 PPG. Hardy was UNLV's top returning scorer and the junior guard is leading the way averaging 19.0-3.4-3.0. Texas graduate transfer Mitrou-Long has been an excelelent backcourt partner, adding 12.6-4.6-3.2. Up front, the 6-7 Tillman (the Pac 12's 6th man of the year last season), has been allowed to play this season and is scoring 12.4 PPG with 4.4 RPG. The 6-11 Diong is averaging 7.2 PPG and a team-high 10.6 RPG. Texas St has won all three at home but the opponents were 'cup cakes' Texas Lutheran, PV A&M and Jackson St. The Bobcats have lost both road games, at Air Force and Baylor. Yes, UNLV is 2-3 but the losses have in OT vs Kansas St and on the road vs Pac 12 schools Cal (also in OT) and UCLA. The Rebels haven't beaten anyone of of note yet, winning at home against Purdue-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian. A victory over Texas St will not be considered a "quality win" but UNLV could sure use a "confidence-builder." I say the Rebels get a "W" (and cover) in this one, as Texas St is just 5-12-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. It's the 11-3 Houston Rockets and the 9-3 Denver Nuggets meeting tonight at Pepsi Center in a matchup of two of the Western Conference's best teams.The Rockets have won EIGHT in a row led by James Harden (more in a bit), while the Nuggets open a four-game homestand looking to break through against Houston, which has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Harden scored 36 in Monday's 132-108 rout of the Portland Trail Blazers (Rockets' 8th straight win), while PGF Russell Westbrook contributed 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his 141st career triple-double. Harden is averaging an NBA-best 39.2 PPG (also 5.7 RPG and 7.6 APG), while Westbrook checks in at 21.6-8.4-7.1. Center Clint Capela (14.1 & 13.1) is one of the NBA's least appreciated "big men" but the Rockets are without Erc]ic Gordon, a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season and have opened 9-3. Center Jokic led Denver in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). However, Jokic has not quite been that good so far this season, although his line does read 16.4-8.8-6.0. Recent good news is that PG Jamal Murray (19.2-4.8-4.8) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis, when the Nuggets had their highest point total of the season in a 131-114 road win. PF Paul Millsap (14.1 & 6.1) matched his season high of 23 points against Memphis and has reached double digits in six straight contests. Some (many?) thought it would be a problem having two ball-dominant guards on the floor at the same time in Harden and Westbrook, but through 14 games the plan has worked. Then again, the Rockets are just 7-7 ATS this season. Yes, the Rockets are a slight underdog here so a win means a cover but I believe Denver's depth will be the difference. Jokic and Murray typically carry the main offensive load but Millsap (see above), Barton (14.8 & 7.4) and Harris (10.7) are also capable of big offensive nights. Denver arguably owns the NBA's deepest bench and was one of the main reasons Denver had the NBA's best home record last season at 34-7. Tough two-game road trip for the Rockets (here and at the Clippers on Friday) and I think they will be fortunate to win either one. I won't get ahead of myself, so tonight the play is on Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-19 | Montana State v. Grand Canyon -6 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Grand Canyon at 9:00 ET. Danny Sprinkle attended Montana St and back in 1996, scored 30 points in the Big Sky championship game to lead the Bobcats into the "Big Dance." The Bobcats haven't been back since. However, on April 4, 2019, Sprinkle was hired as the 23rd head men's basketball coach at Montana State. He took over at a school which has won between seven and 16 games the last five seasons. Dan Majerle had a 14-year NBA career and was the associate head coach for the Phoenix Suns from 2008–2013. On March 15, 2013, it was announced that Majerle would coach for Grand Canyon University in their its season as a Division I team. In Malerle's third season, he led the Antelopes to 27 wins and into the CIT quarterfinals, then followed with 22, 22 and 20-win seasons. Each of the last two seasons, Grand Canyon has lost in the WAC championship game, to New Mexico St (one win shy of an NCAA berth). Sprinkle has an "international cast of characters," led PG Frey (17.2-5.8-6.0) from Noway. Two London-born players are the 6-9 Belo (11.2 & 6.2) and guard Adamu (9.8 & 4.2) plus guard Paulo (9.4) hails from Toronto. The Bobcats are off to an impressive start at 4-1, which includes three wins in THREE days in Greensboro, NC playing in the Spartan Classic. Mon St beat App St 59-56, host UNC-Greensboro 67-66 and Ten Tech, 52-39. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon stumbled out of the gate with THREE straight losses, before beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-54. Grand Canyon lost two key players from last year's team in the 6-10 Finke (12.1 & 5.1) and PG Milstead (10.3 & 3.6 APG) but Majerle has a solid team. Guard Johnson (13.5 & 6.8) leads the team in scoring and rebounding plus four more players average in double figures. That group includes guard Brown (12.8 & 4.2), freshman Blacksher (12.2 & 5.2) and 6-7 graduate transfer swingman Jenkins (10.2 & 3.8) plus the returning 6-10 Lever (11.5 & 2.8). I can't explain Grand Canyon's early stumbles but Montana State just finished playing three games in three days in Greensboro (Fri-Sun) and now flies to Phoenix with only ONE day between playing a FOURTH game in five days! That's asking A LOT! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Knicks at 7:05 ET. Two of the East's worst teams square off tonight at MSG, as the 4-8 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 3-10 NY Knicks. The Cavaliers come to New York having dropped three straight, after losing 114-95 to Philadelphia at home on Sunday afternoon. The Knicks were off on Sunday, after suffering a last-second 103-102 loss Saturday night to the visiting Charlotte Hornets. The Cavs' last win came over the Knicks, 108-87 in New York back on Nov 10. The Cavs took an 18-point halftime lead in that one, as Collin Sexton finished with 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Sexton is in his second season and is averaging 18.2 PPG, tying him with Kevin Love (18.2 & 12.1) for the team lead. Love scored just 12 points in Sunday's loss, after averaging 20.5 in his previous two games. Center Tristan Thompson (14.9 & 10.5) was just a rebound shy of his ninth double-double of the season (12 & 9) against Philly. Cleveland has a fourth double-digit scorer in guard Clarkson (14.8). New York owns its only two wins this month over improving Dallas but has yet to post back-to-back victories this season. The Knicks followed a Nov 8 win at Dallas with the above-mentioned home loss to the Cavs and then after beating Dallas again this past Thursday, lost 103-102 to visiting Charlotte on Friday. The Knicks could not hold an eight-point lead in the final six minutes, as the Hornets won on a three-pointer with 2.8 seconds remaining. “We didn’t take the game,” Knicks forward Julius Randle told the New York Post. “We let them stay around instead of us really taking the game.” Randle (15.5-9.5-3.9) leads the team in rebounds and assists, while fellow forward Morris (18.2 & 5.9) leads in scoring, with rookie RJ Barrett justifying being picked third overall in last June’s draft by averaging 15.8-5.8-3.8. The Knicks were riding high after beating the Mavs on Thursday night and then leading by as many as 15 points Saturday vs Charlotte, before 'spitting out the bit.' I doubt I'll be 'on' the Knicks very often this season but they are catching the Cavs on the second of a back-to-back and if head coach David Fizdale can't get his team to win in a spot like this, his 'seat' will go from 'hot' to 'boiling.' Cleveland is 'ripe for the taking' in this one and I'll back the Knicks. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Orl Magic at 6:05 ET. The Orlando Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, the Magic have won THREE of the their last four as they get set to host the Washington Wizards on Sunday.The Wizards will play the entire season with All Star PG John Wall and are not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Washington has opened just 3-7 The Wizards wrap up a three-game road trip here in Orlando, after losing 140-133 at Boston and winning 137-116 at Minnesota. Bradley Beal was expected to have a "career year" with Wall sidelined and coming off a 44-point effort in Friday's win at Minnesota, he's doing just that. He's averaging 29.7-4.6-4.9 with FIVE more Wizards averaging between 11.4 and 14. PPG. One of those players is the 6-11 Mortitz Wagner (2nd-year pro out of Michigan), who turned in a 30 & 15 effort against the T-wolves.The Wizards can score (117.3 PPG ranks 3rd) but they are also allowing 119.6 PPG, which ranks 28th in a 30-team league. Speaking about scoring, after being held to just 95.1 PPG during a 2-6 start, the Magic have averaged 109.8 PPG over their last five games, including 110.8 over the first four of a five-game homestand in which they've one THREE of four. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.82& 11.7) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.3) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one that had started together in the team's first 11 games. Isaac (ankle) sat out Friday but returned to practice on Saturday and is probable to return. SG Fournier (16.2) is a scorer on the perimeter and is coming off a season-high 26 points in Friday's 111-109 win over the Spurs PGs Fultz (9.8 & 3.2 APG) and Augustin (9.6 & 4.5 APG) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting seven and Augustin, five. Terrence Ross (10.3) has done a great job off the bench and after missing back-to-back games in early November (knee), has averaged 15.0 PPG in his three games back. The Magic have begun to resemble the playoff team of last year recently and that should continue here, as they can conclude their homestand with a 4-1 record by winning tonight. As good as Beal is, I'm betting "under 44 points" for him this game, as well as going "under" 30 points and 15 points for Wagner, who checks in with season averages of 12.8 & 5.9. Washington has lost SIX of eight, allowing a 131.3 PPG in its six losses. As noted, Orlando's offensive woes of its first eight games is behind them and I'm looking for a "comfortable" win here. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | UC Riverside v. Pacific OVER 116 | Top | 51-58 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET. UC-Riverside visits Stockton, Ca on Sunday, as the Highlanders take on the Pacific Tigers. Riverside went just 10-23 last season under first-time head coach David Patrick but has designs on being at least a .500 team in the current season by adapting a slower pace and controlling the clock. The 2-1 Highlanders are averaging only 57.7 PPG (ranks 337th of 351 Division I schools) but the team's "pace" has also allowed them to hold opponents to just 53.3 PPG (13th-best in the nation). Pacific went to three straight NCAA tourneys from 2004-06 and then made another trip in 2013. The following season, Pacific made it to the NIT semis but the basketball program has imploded, since. Beginning in the 2014-15 season, the Tigers have gone 12-19, 8-20, 11-22, 14-18 and 14-18. Pacific has been led the last three seasons by former Arizona All American and 15-year NBA player, Damon Stoudamire. Riverside is led by 7-1 center McCrae, who is leading the team in scoring (13.7) and rebounding (9.3). A trio of guards chip in 9.0-to-10.3 PPG, including 6-3 UTSA transfer Wilborn, who averages 8.7 RPG to go along with his 9.0 points. Stoudamire claims his team's depth will bring about a much better season for the Tigers. Pacific features NINE new players, including graduate transfers and freshman. The team's leading scorer is Ga Tech transfer Moore (11.6 & 3.6 APG) and the team's leading rebounder is returning 6-5 senior guard Tripp (8.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 McCray has recovered from a torn ACL and is back averaging 10.8 & 5.6 plus Finstuen, a JC transfer guard, is averaging 9.6. Here's the 'dope.' The opening Ov/Un number was 117 1/2 but I'm saying "no way" this game is staying under that number (I was able to go over 116). Stoudamire 'LOVES' his team's depth and after five games, ELEVEN Pacific players are logging 11-plus minutes per game. Yes, Pacific has already played FIVE games (no school has played more), while averaging 72.0 per. Just three of those games have featured pointspreads and O/U lines with all three going over (closing totals of 133, 123.5 and 132). This one is Goin' Over, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | USC -2 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Bailout Blowout of the Month is on USC at 11:00 ET. 3-0 USC visits Reno, Nv on Saturday night to take on 2-1 Nevada. The Trojans have won their first three games by an average of 19.3 PPG but are playing on the road for the first time, after going 2-8 away from home last season. The Wolf Pack have won 44 of their last 47 home games but after three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29, Nevada entered this season with a new head coach (more in a bit) and having lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Speaking of head coaches, Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has three teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona and Colorado). The good news is that seniors Jonah Mathews (1,009) and Nick Rakocevic (1,007) just became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark. The 6-11 Rakocevic is averaging 14.0 & 9.0 and guard Mathews chips in 11.7 PPG. The better news is that neither is the team's best player, as that's reserved for 6-9 freshman Onyeka Okongwu, who averages 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds plus has recorded 10 blocked shots. Also "keep an eye on 6-10 freshman Mobley, who is averaging 8.7 & 6.7. Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to the success stated above. He left for Arkansas this season and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana start had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He takes over a team that lost all FIVE starters but he does have a deep and pretty good perimter group. Holdover guards Drew (20.3-7.7-6.3) and Johnson (17.3) are off two excellent starts, joined on the perimeter by La Tech transfer Harris (12.0 & 5.5) and the returning Zouzoua (11.3). Yes, Nevada has won 44 of its last 47 at home but one of those losses came this year at home to Utah, a Pac 12 team not as good as USC. The Trojans wil surely remember getting outscored 39-26 in 2nd-half of last year's 73-61 home loss to Nevada and again, that was a totally different team than this year's Nevada edition. Revenge will be 'sweet' for USC, with a bonus being Enfield getting some extra satisfaction in besting former UCLA mentor Alfird. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Raptors v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened defense of the franchise's first-ever NBA title in October with Kawhi in LA playing for the Clippers plus starting guard Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) also in LA, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news was that head coach Nick Nurse (reigning Coach of the Year) still had a familiar cast. Pascal Siakam was the NBA's Most Improved Player and then averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry's been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without (he was a former Defensive Player of the Year). Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believed Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). Toronto has opened 8-3, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry (21.8-4.3-6.5) and Serge Ibaka (14.0 & 6.5 while averaging just 23 minutes) have each missed the last three games. Lowry ( fractured thumb) is out until at least late-November and Ibaka (sprained ankle) is listed as "out indefinitely." Toronto is playing the finale of a five-game road trip on Saturday and has won THREE of the first four stops. The Raptors bounced back from a 98-88 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday (Raptors got outscored 25-10 in the 4th quarter, one night after beating the Lakers 113-104 on the same court) with a 114-106 triumph at Portland on Wednesday. VanVleet went off for a season-high 30 points in Wednesday's win and is averaging 22.3 PPG over the last three contests (with Lowry sidelined). Siakam is averaging 27.2 & 9.2 on the season, as he's turned into an All-Star. The Dallas Mavericks were playoff 'regulars' from 2000-01 to 2015-16, making the postseason in 15 of those 16 years (won lone NBA title in 2011). However, the Mavs opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing years, with win totals of just 33, 24 and 33. However, after Luka Doncic won rookie-of-the-year honors last season (21.2-7.8-6.0), expectations were that Dallas would be a playoff team in 2019-20. Kristaps Porzingis was acquired from the Knicks last season in a trade and he was healthy and ready to go to open this season. He's averaging 18.5 & 8.2 and with Doncic putting up Westbrook-like numbers (28.7-10.3-9.3), the Mavs surely have shown signs of being a playoff team. Five more players have played in all 11 games this season, with two others playing in 10 of 11. That group consists of guys averaging anywhere from 6.4-to-11.6 PPG. However, the Mavs check in at a modest 6-5 and that includes TWO losses to the pathetic NY Knicks, home and away, in a seven-day span. Dallas has yet to convince me that "it is back," but the Raptors are in a tough spot, playing their FIFTH game in nine days. With no Lowry or Ibaka for Toronto, I expect Dallas to get a much-needed, confidence-building win here at home, against the defending champs. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Belmont v. Boston College -1.5 | Top | 100-85 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Boston College at 2:00 ET. Belmont and Boston College meet Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill in an on-campus Gotham Classic matchup. Belmont is coming off a 27-6 season which included an upset of 6th-seeded Maryland in the NCAAs, before losing 81-70 to Temple in the second round. However, the Bruins saw legendary head coach Rick Byrd retire (805 career wins), plus lost the 6-7 Windler (21.3 & 10.9) and guard McClain (16.8-3.6-3.9) from that team. Windler was a 1st round NBA draft choice and led Belmont with 35 & 11 in its upset of Maryland. McClain was a 1st-team All-OVC guard, who led Belmont with 29 points in the Temple loss. Boston has struggled to find its way into the top-half of the ACC and went just 14-17 (5-13 in the ACC) last season. Replacing Windler and McClain will be difficult but Belmont feels great about new head coach. Casey Alexander, who played for Byrd at Belmont, was his assistant for 16 years and then as Lipscomb's head coach, led them to a 29-8 record last year, including a runner-up finish in the NIT. The Bruins have a solid guard duo in Kunkel (20.5) and Murphy (10.0-8.5-5.0) plus up front, the 6-11 Muszynski has averaged 17.5 PPG and 6-7 grad transfer Scanlon has averaged 10.0-6.4-4.5. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). However, BC is off to a 3-0 starts and seeks its first 4-0 start in 12 years. BC will really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad ttansfer Derryck Thornton has averaged 17.3 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic averaged 14.5 & 7.2 last season and in BC's 3-0 start, has averaged 12.7 & 5.7. The 6-8 Mitchell is also back up front and he's averaged 5.7 PPG and 10.7 RPG. A pair of freshman have also looked good in the early going, as guard Heathchecks in at 12.7 & 4.3 plus the 6-7 Felder has added 6.3 & 5.3. It's hard NOT to be impressed by the Belmont program in recent years but this is just the team's third game, owning a home win over Samford and then taking a 79-72 loss at Illinois St, which lost FOUR starters off last season's 17-win team. Meanwhile, BC opened with a conference win over Wake Forest (77-70) and has also won 74-60 at South Florida, last year's NIT champs. Belmont was picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference in coach Casey Alexander's first season but this visit to Boston does NOT end well. Good luck...Larry
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 211.5 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on SA/Orl Over at 7:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 4-1 but a warning sign was their 1-4 ATS mark. It was more than telling, as the Spurs 'limp' into Orlando having lost FIVE of six since that 4-1 start, while the team's ATS woes have continued. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS during the 1-5 SU stretch, giving them a 2-9 ATS mark in the team's 5-6 start. The Spurs will look to salvage the finale of a two-game trip Friday in Orlando, coming off 129-114 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, Wednesday's impressive 112-97 victory against visiting Philadelphia, improved the Magic to 2-1 on their current five-game homestand. San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.1-4.9-54.8) and PF Aldridge (17.9 & 5.9) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, Aldridge has been an enigma, averaging 25 points on 58.6 percent from the floor in his team's five wins but just 12 points on 43.9 percent in its six losses. PG Dejounte Murray (10.9-7.3-4.7) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Aldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes guards Forbes (14.3), Mills (12.0) and White (11.3), plus SF Green (10.7 & 7.1). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.6), he's averaging 8.0 RPG in only about 20 minutes. Orlando ranks first in the NBA in holding opponents to 99.1 PPG but is last in scoring offense (99.4 PPG) on 42.1% shooting (29th). However, after being held to 99 points or fewer in each of their first SEVEN games, the Magic have scored at least 102 in FOUR straight contests. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.8 & 11.5) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.2) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one plus Fournier (15.3) is a scorer on the perimeter. Those four have started all 11 games, while guards Augustin (9.5 & 4.5 APG) and Fultz (9.5) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting six and Augustin, five. Here's where I'm going with this. "Once Upon a Time," the Pop-coached Spurs were among the NBA's best defensive teams but San Antonio ranks 23rd in points allowed (114.2) and 26trh in defensive FG percentage (47.5). In the team's current three-game skid, the Spurs are allowing 125.7 points and saw the Timberwolves scored 40 points in TWO different quarters on Wednesday. Getting back to Orlando, I noted the team's dramatic offensive improvement lately and putting a 'number' to that improvement shows the Magic averaging 109.5 PPG over its last four contests. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-19 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1 | Top | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET. Bob Huggins became famous while coaching Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 16 straight postseason berths, including 14 straight NCAA bids. He was 'forced out' and after spending a year out of the coaching profession, accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State. It was a one-year 'pit stop' (23-12), as he returned to Morgantown (where he was born) to take the West Va job. As expected, he's led West Va to postseason berths in NINE of 12 seasons but is coming off just his second losing season with the Mountaineers, as they were just 15-21 in the 2018-19 season (4-14 in the Big 12 left them in last-place). West Virginia held off Akron 94-84 in its season opener on Nov 8. Pittsburgh welcomes the Mountaineers to the Petersen Events Center on Friday, with the Panthers off to a 2-1 start. Jeff Capel's first season at Pitt (2018-19) was a disaster, as the Panthers went 14-19 (3-15 in the ACC). Capel, a former standout at Duke, has previously led both VCU and Oklahoma to NCAA tourney bids. Early indications are that Jeff Capel is making some progress at Pitt. Here's how Huggins described last season. "You can't lose four starters (during the season) and be successful," he said. "We lost our PG, the best shot-blocker in the nation and two other starters who were pretty good , too, You can't do that!" The 6-10 Culver is back and he opened with 16 & 7 against Akron. The 6-7 Matthews looked good as well, chipping in 13 & 7 plus highly-touted 6-9 freshman Tshiebew added 5 & 5 in 10 minutes. The backcourt is deep with senior Harley (16-7-3) and freshman McBride (11-6-4) contributing the most in the team's season opener. Pittsburgh actually has three games under its belt, although the Panthers would like to forget getting upset 75-70 at home by Nicholls State, which was picked to finish 11th in the Southland Conference. However, the Panthers will want to build on their71-57 win at Robert Morris on Tuesday. The victory snapped a 24-game, true-road losing streak. Pittsburgh impressively overcame an 18-0 Colonials' run in the first half to record a true-road victory for the first time since Feb.8, 2017, at Boston College. The 6-10 Terrell Brown had eight points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his first start of the season (9.7 & 5.7). "Brown was really the difference in the game," Robert Morris coach Andrew Toole said. "His ability to protect the rim, and make it hard for our guys to finish around the basket had a huge impact on us offensively." Pitt is basically a perimeter-oriented team, with junior guard Murphy (17.0 & 3.7) leading all scorers, joined by sophomore guards McGowens (15.0-6.7-4.0) and Johnson (10.0-5.7-3.7) plus 6-6 freshman guard Champagnie (7.7 & 4.7). This is the 187th edition of the "Backyard Brawl," one which West Va won last season, 69-59. However, I noted above that Pittsburgh snapped its 24-game, true-road losing streak but that's 'chump change' compared to West Va's road woes. The Mountaineers will be seeking their first true road win in 633 days, since a win at Baylor back on Feb 20, 2018! What's more, they will have to do accomplish that against a hated-rival in Pittsburgh, which is 70-3 all-time in the month of November at the Petersen Events Center. At this price, Pitt is the ONLY way to go! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall +6.5 | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* No. 3 vs No. 12 Showdown is on Seton Hall at 8:30 ET. The Gavitt Tipoff Games wrap up a week-long schedule when No. 3 Michigan State travels to South Orange, NJ to take on No. 12 Seton Hall. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history but lost 69-62 to then-No. 2 Kentucky on Nov 5 in the Champions Classic played at MSG. Kentucky rebounded from that season-opening loss with an easy 104-47 home win over Binghamton this past Sunday. Seton Hall returned four starters from last year's 20-win NCAA team and opened as the No. 12 team in the AP's preseason poll. The Pirates have opened 2-0 and held their spot in the first regular season poll but the Hall's 74-57 Saturday home win over Stony Brook came at a high 'price.' Senior guard Myles Powell averaged 23.1 PPG last season and scored 27 in the team's season-opener but he suffered a severe ankle injury early in Saturday's contest (he will NOT play here). Michigan St's loss to Kentucky was a disappointment but paled in comparison to the death of Zachary Winston, the younger brother of Spartans senior PG Cassius Winston (Preseason P-O-Y). Zachary died of an apparent suicide on Saturday night and he was friends with many players on the Spartans squad. However, Winston (19.0 & 7.5 APG) played the very next day and was outstanding against Binghamton, finishing with 17 points, 11 assists and just one turnover. 6-8 junior forward Xavier Tillman (12.0 & 8.5) rebounded from a disappointing opener with 17 points and eight rebounds against Binghamton. He's one of five MSU frontcourt players averaging between 7.5 and 12.5 PPG (the 6-6 Henry leads at 12.5). MSU's weakness is on the perimeter, as outside of Winston, Izzo's team does not have a consistent outside shooter with Langford (15.0 PPG last season) not expected to be available until January at the earliest. Myles Powell was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and according to head coach Kevin Willard, his sprained his left ankle will cause him to miss multiple games, although the ankle has reportedly responded well to treatment. Powell will be missed but PG McKnight (12.0 & 5.0 APG) is hardly alone in the backcourt. Rhoden (11.5) and Reynolds (9.0) each played extra minutes after Powell went down, as Rhoden played 27 minutes (11 points) and Reynolds played 28 (9 points). Willard's team features a HUGE frontcourt, with the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (14.0 & 5.) being aided by a pair of two 7-footers, Gill (9.0 & 6.0) and Obiagu (7.5 & 2.5). I'm a HUGE fan of Izzo but Kevin Willard can coach. He's led Seton Hall to four straight 20-win seasons, earning a bid to the "Big Dance" in each one. I had Kentucky when it beat Mich St back on Nov 5 and wrote, " I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), the 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8) from LY, will NOT get Langford back as expected (until Jan) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain." Nothing much has changed. Seton Hall took down Kentucky 84-83 (OT) last Dec 8th at MSG and here on its home court, does the same to Mich St. Take the points but expect a SU win by the Pirates. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Clippers v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 7:35 ET. The LA Clippers and Houston Rockets have each opened 7-3 and will square off in the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader. Kawhi Leonard led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA championship in his lone season with the team last spring and helped the Clippers to a 98-88 victory over his former team on Monday. Leonard struggled in going just 2-of-11 from the floor on Monday but finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and three steals. The Rockets played on Monday night as well, winning 122-166 at New Orleans, as James Harden scored 39 points (more on him in a bit). Leonard is the 'face' of the Clippers, averaging 26.9-8.5-5.9 but Paul George is expected back soon, giving LA a formidable "1-2 punch!" As good Leonard and George are, LA's outstanding bench will be a huge part of any success the Clippers will have this postseason. Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (22.3 & 5.6 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.8 & 7.1) and Green (9.1 & 6.3), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. Houston's Monday win was its FOURTH in a row and Harden's 39 points was the fourth straight game in which he has scored at least 35 points. Harden's average of 37.3 points through the first 10 games is the highest the league has seen through a 10-game start since the NBA-ABA merger, besting Michael Jordan's 36.9 points in 1988-89 and 1986-87.Westbrook (21.9-8.7-7.4) has meshed well with Harden and both will be counted on even more than usual with third guard Eric Gordon (16.6 PPG scorer in his career) undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday, sidelining him for about six weeks.One of the league's best-kept 'secrets' is center Clint Capela, who is averaging 13.5 & 11.7. Kawhi has sat out two games due to "load management" and both were in games against quality opponents. He missed LA's game at Utah Oct 30 and then missed the team's home game on against Giannis and the Bucks (still don't get that one?). The Clippers will play at New Orleans tomorrow and one would expect Kawhi to play here but you just never know. The Clipper may have held Toronto to just 10 points in the 4th on Monday and to 88 points for the game but the Clippers have allowed a WHOPPING 120.7 PPG in their only three road games this season and here, face the NBA's top-scoring team (Rockets average 120.3 PPG). 'LOVE' the Rockets at the opening number but if Kawhi sits, I'll lay the higher number, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -3 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on VCU at 6:00 ET. No. 23 LSU (1-0) visits Richmond, Va to take on VCU on Wednesday, which opened No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out in Monday's new poll, despite opening 2-0. LSU head coach Will Wade returns to the place where he won 51 games and made a pair of NCAA Tournaments in two seasons as the school's head coach. Wade was 51-20 at VCU from 2015-17 before taking the job in Baton Rouge,where he helped the 28-7 Tigers win their first SEC regular-season title since 2009 last season Lost in the Sweet 16). Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. Most likely remember that Wade was suspended by LSU last March due to allegations over illegal recruiting charges. He's back (for now), so let's talk basketball. Gone from last year's team are PG Waters (15.3 & 5.8 APG) plus frontcourt players the 6-9 Reid (13.6 & 7.2) and the 6-11 Bigby-Williams (7.9 & 6.7). Key players returning this this year are guards Javonte Smart (in the center of LY's recruiting scandal) and Skylar Mays. Smart had 21 points in Friday's 88-79 home win over Bowling Green, while Mays had 18 & 8. Sophomore forward Emmitt Williams had 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from the floor, after averaging just 7.0 PPG last season. Fellow sophomore forward Davis had 13 points and seven rebounds, coming off averaging 5.3 & 4.0 last year. The team's most promising freshman is the 6-9 Trendon Watford, who debuted with 10 points and seven rebounds. The Rams return all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team will be senior guards Jenkins (14.0 & 4.5) and Evans (12.5), plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (12.0 & 12.5). However, don't dismiss senior guard Mike’L Simms just yet, as while he's gone just 2-of-9 from the floor in the first two games, he as just ONE turnover in 49 total minutes. “VCU is a great place,” Will Wade told reporters. “As a coach you travel around a lot. That’s the longest I’ve been in one place. I was there four years as an assistant. I was there two years as the head coach. They’ve got tremendous fans. … It will be rowdy, but it should be fun.” My bet follows the saying, "You can't go home." VCU is well-balanced and well-coached and will be looking to get back into the top-25 by knocking off LSU in this one. This contest is VCU's lone real test before playing in Niceville, Fl (Emerald Coast Classic) Nov 29-30. Wade and his Tigers will fine "nothing fun" about this visit to the Siegal Center! Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Memphis v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Top-15 Showdown is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they've been replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the situation is not without drama, as the 'jewel' of that class, 7-1 freshman James Wiseman, is the center of an NCAA investigation which ruled him ineligible. Attorneys for Wiseman have since sued the NCAA and while the legal process continue Wiseman, has averaged 22.5 & 10.0 in the Tigers' 2-0 start. Memphis is ranked 13th in the latest AP poll and tonight visits the Moda Center (home of the Trail Blazers) to take on 2-0 Oregon, which is ranked 14th. Oregon opened with a 14-point win over Fresno St and then shot 70 percent from the floor (including 13 of 19 from three-point range), in a 106-75 rout of Boise St. Wiseman leads the consensus top recruiting class in the country, which also includes guard Ellis (15.0), the 6-9 Achiuwa (12.0 & 7.5) and the 6-7 Jeffries (9.5 & 4.0). There's more, in freshman guards Quinones (7.0-3.5-4,.0) and Baugh (4.0 & 6.0 APG). Sophomore guards Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris, the only prominent holdovers from last season’s team, have combined to average 16.5 points in the wins over South Carolina State and the UIC. Oregon's Bol Bol is gone plus a trioo0f 6-9 players, King, White and Wooten, who were major contributors in Oregon's Pac 12 tourney title and Sweet 16 runs, are also gone. However, PG Ptrichard (21.5-6.5-7.0) leads an excellent cast. He teams with fellow senior Mathis (19.5) plus JC transfer Duarte (11.5-6.0-3.5) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 freshman Patterson (8.5) joins 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (10.5-4.5-5.0) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro. Okoro missed Saturday’s game after posting 10 points and 10 rebounds in the opener. He was struck by a car and is listed day-to-day. The Phil Knight Invitational (named for the Nike co-founder) is technically a neutral-court game, but it's less than two hours from Eugene, home of the Ducks. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and owns a HUGE coaching edge over the still untested Hardaway. In 'friendly surroundings,' I 'love' the Ducks at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Thunder v. Pacers -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but the Pacers now look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference with SIX wins in their last seven games. As for OKC, it seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Thunder were in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, as the team's top-four scorers are in their first season with OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.0-5.8-3.4) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (18.6 & 5.0, while shooting 43.7% on threes), Paul (16.1-3.6-5.2) and Schroder (14.7-5.2-34.7).The Thunder pushed the Milwaukee Bucks to the brink on Sunday, before falling 121-119. Gallinari suffered through one of his worst shooting games (was just 4-of-17 from the floor) but made a key three-pointer down the stretch to keep his team close. Backup PG Dennis Schroder helped keep the Thunder in the game with a season-high 25 points on 9-of-12 shooting. OKC features a balanced attack but it could sure use a healthy Steven Adams. The center is averaging 8.3 & 10.1 but sat out the Milwaukee game and has missed THREE of OKC's last five with a knee issue (he's listed as questionable for this one). The Pacers welcome the Thunder to Bankers Life Fieldhouse with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and newly-acquired SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 20.8-5.2-8.9. However, the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga posted his fourth straight double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds in Sunday's 109-102 victory at Orlando plus matched a season high with seven assists (he's averaging 20.0-13.0-4,1 on the season). Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, as is reserve point guard T.J. McConnell. McDermott has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last three games and McConnell has scored 29 points and handed out 17 assist over his last two. Indiana is on a roll, going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS its last seven. The Pacers are a very tough matchup for OKC, which seemed to be developing a defensive identity, allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3) heading into a Thursday game at San Antonio. However, the Thunder have allowed 116.7 PPG over their last three games and now take on an Indiana team averaging 112.9 PPG over its last seven games. OKC has four wins this season, two over 2-9 Golden St and one each against 2-8 New Orleans and 3-7 Orlando. One last thing, the Thunder are 0-3 on the road, allowing 112.3 PPG. "Batten down the hatches" and lay the points with Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Missouri v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Game of the Month is on Xavier at 7:00 ET. Missouri and Xavier have both opened 2-0, as the two teams meet Tuesday night in Cincinnati (Cintas Center). The Tigers are coming off a 15-17 season and in the preseason, were picked to finish 13th in the 14-school SEC. Xavier is coming off a 19-16 season, although the Musketeers were ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll (despite a 2-0 start, Xavier was ranked 21st in the first regular season poll). This marks Cuonzo Martin's third season at Missouri. He led theTigers to an NCAA appearance in his first but the Tigers had no such success last season. Missouri has opened 2-0 while holding opponents to 49.0 PPG but the team's opening win was over Incarnate Word. SEVEN of last year's top-nine scorers are back, led by 6-10 junior Jeremiah Tilmon. He's averaging 14.5 & 6.0 but the only other Missouri player in double digits is sophomore guard Xavier Pinson (11.5-3.0-5..5), who comes off the bench. Mark Smith, a 6-5 junior guard who missed the final seven games of last season with a foot injury, failed to score in an opening win over Incarnate Word but rebounded with 19 points in Friday's victory over Northern Kentucky (note: No. Ky won 26 games last year and made the "Big Dance"). Evansville transfer Dru Smith starts alongside of Mark Smith in the backcourt and is averaging 8.5 PPG. Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season. He was retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position and has been a part of a Musketeers program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017. Steele was promoted to head coach when Mack took the Louisville job. Following Miller and Mack was NOT expected to be easy and it wasn't. However, Xavier rallied to win EIGHT of its final 11 regular season games and went to a postseason tourney (NIT) for the 13th time in 14 seasons. Xavier lost just ONE starter off last year's team, the 6-11 Hankins who averaged 10.6 & 5.3. The Musketeers feature a terrific forward duo, as 6-9 senior Jones is averaging 18.5 & 8.5 plus 6-7 junior Marshall is averaging 18.45-7.0-5.5. Some bad news is that returning guard Paul Scruggs (12.3 PPG last season), who had 12 points against Jacksonville before suffering a knee injury , did not play against Siena and appear s unlikely to play against Missouri (he was a preseason honorable mention all-Big East selection). However, 6-9 freshman Zach Freemantle and 6-8 Ohio U transfer Jason Carter, could play play big roles for Xavier this season. Freemantle is off to a promising start (9.0 & 5.5), while Carter (5.5 & 2.0), not so much. This will be Xavier's first 'test' of the season, or is it? Martin did lead Missouri to the NCAAs in his first season, despite a 5-6 road record. However, the Tigers had gone an "hard-to-believe" 0-30 on the road in the previous three seasons and last year reverted to form by going 2-8 on the road. Why should Missouri win here, where Xavier has gone 88-16 (.846) since joining the Big East back at the start of the 2013-14 season. What's more, 'ringing in Xavier's ear' will be Missouri's 71-56 home win over the Musketeers last season. REVENGE works in a "big way": in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-19 | Yale v. San Francisco -5.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Francisco at 9:00 ET. Yale's James Jones is the longest tenured coach in the Ivy League. He's led the Bulldogs to three Ivy championships in the last five seasons, including two NCAA appearances. The 2015-16 season was special, as Yale won 23 games (the most since 1906-07) and advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 54 years where the Bulldogs upset Baylor to earn the first NCAA Tournament victory in Yale history. Last season wasn't bad either, as Jones guided Yale to Ivy League regular season and tournament titles and a 22-8 overall record. The Bulldogs knocked off Harvard in a thrilling Ivy League Tournament championship game and then nearly upset third-seeded LSU in the NCAA Tournament. Yale has opened 2-0 but gets a real test tonight, when the school visits the San Francisco Dons, who have also started 2-0. San Francisco saw head coach Tyler Smith, after three straight 20-win seasons, leave to take the Washington St job. However, his assistant coach, Todd Golden takes over. The Dons are thrilled with his promotion, as he played at St Marry's and has worked under Smith at Columbia and here at San Francisco, with a 'pit stop' under Bruce Pearl at Auburn, in between. Yale lost four starters (as well as its top-three scorers) of last year's team. Most notable, is the loss of Ivy League POY Miye Oni (17.1 & 6.3). However, Jones feels that the 6-10 Atkinson and guard Swain are almost returning starters, as each played in every game last season. He may be right about that, as Atkinson is averaging 19.0 & 4.5 and Swain 14.0 & 4.5. The team's lone returning starter, the 6-9 Bruner (10.4 & 8.3 LY), is averaging a double-double to open this season at 10.0 & 10.5 The Dons love Golden's pedigree but he will have to replace the heart and soul of last year's team, PG Ferrari (14.7 &5.5 APG). That said, the current team looks very solid and balanced. The Dons have started a trio of guards in Mineland (15.5 & 4.), Bouyea (13.0 & 6.0) and Ratinho (13.0), while Central Washington transfer Shabazz (11.0 & 6.5) looks like an excellent addition. The 7-0 Lull (12.0 & 8.0) and the 6-8 Kunen (7.5 & 7.0) start up front, with the 6-9 Raitanen (6.5 & 5.5) coming off the bench. This contest begins a tough stretch for Yale, which plays at Oklahoma St (11/17) and Penn St (11/23) a part of the NIT Season Tip-Off. San Francisco opens with SIX of its first seven at home and will take the court tonight on a nine-game November winning streak. The Dons went 7-0 in November of 2018 and have opened 2-0 here in 2019. The Dons beat two Ivy League schools in last November's 7-0 run (Harvard and Dartmouth) plus beat Princeton by 10 Saturday at Chase Center (Warriors new home) and will take a seven-game winning streak against Ivy League opponents into tonight's contest. "The Price is Right" and I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 203 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Orl Over at 6:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but will visit Orlando on Sunday, winners of FIVE of its last six. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but Friday's 118-86 win over Memphis gives them just a 3-6 start to the current season. The Pacers come to Orlando with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) are both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Indiana placed SEVEN players in double figures in Friday's 112-106 win over Detroit. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 21.0-5.1-9.0. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 19.9 & 12.6. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 17.9 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, with McDermott scoring 33 and Sampson 24, the last two games. Orlando ranks 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 98.2 PPG but is last in scoring offense (97.7 PPG). However, the Magic finally showed what the team can be when the shots fall on Friday. Orlando routed Memphis 118-86, holding the Grizzlies to 37.2 percent from the floor, in line with the team's excellent defensive play all season but Orlando also had a breakout offensive effort, The starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic plus forwards Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac combined to go 25-of-38 from the floor (65.8%) while scoring 62 points. We've got really good defensive players on this team and the one thing we can hang our hats on is knowing that we can defend," Gordon told reporters. "That (defensive) side of the floor, we know that we can handle pretty much anybody. But it's nice to see our offense get going as well." "Turned the corner? I don't know, but we did play better," Magic shooting guard Evan Fournier (14.8) told reporters. "We had more easy baskets and that's why we scored. We've been saying that the offense hasn't been good, but it's been because we don't get enough good shots. Tonight, we were able to create a lot of good shots and that was the key." Orlando has been a dead “under” team this season with a great defense coupled with an offense which has been awful. However, there is little reason to think the team's "O" will continue to struggle. Repeating from above, the Magic were a playoff team last year and returned the core of that team intact and healthy. Orlando has gone 'under" in SEVEN of nine games this season (one over and one push) but the Magic scored 106 points in a Wednesday loss at Dallas (team's lone over of the season) and then 118 points Friday (that game stayed under only because Memphis scored 86 points, three 'TDs' lower than the team's scoring average of 108.7 PPG on the season). As for Indiana, the Pacers come into this contest averaging 113.5 PPG in winning FIVE of their last six. It's rare these days to see a NBA over/under number 'hugging' around 200 but that's the case here. My bet says this number is WAAAY too low, based on current form. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs -1 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the SA Spurs at 5:05 ET. The Boston Celtics had no answers for the the 76ers in Philly back on Oct 23, losing 107-93 in their season-opener. However, Boston has won SIX in a row, since. Boston's 6-1 record is tops in the Eastern Conference and the Celtics look to make it SEVEN straight wins when they visit AT&T Center in San Antonio for a game with the 5-3 Spurs. The Celtics easily won 108-87 Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night,while the Spurs snapped a two-game slide with a 121-112 win over OKC the same night. It seems like Boston is happy with Kemba Walker as its PG, instead of Kyrie, who is now in Brooklyn. Walker (24.3-5.1-4.0) has been an easy fit within Brad Stevens' offense plus the return to form of SF Gordon Hayward has put a smile on Stevens' face. The former All-Star battled through an inconsistent 2018-19 season while recovering from a leg injury but has averaged 20.3-7.9-4.6 so far, looking more like the star from his Utah years. He joins Jayson Tatum (21.6 & 7.7) to give Boston an outstanding starting forward duo. Boston also got swingman Jaylen Brown (16.0 & 6.3) back against the Hornets and he scored 12 in the win. He had missed three games with a leg infection that he said required five hospital trips. Center Enes Kanter (knee) has missed the last six games and is not expected to play Saturday but reports are, "he's close." San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.0-4.5-5.0) and PF Aldridge (19.0 & 6.6) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, San Antonio had been waiting for a breakout game from Aldridge and finally got one on Thursday, when he went off for a season-high 39 points on 19-of-23 shooting. Aldridge had averaged 12.3 points on 39.1 percent shooting in the four previous games (Spurs were just 1-3). More good news came in that PG Dejounte Murray added 17 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds on Thursday for his first points-assists double-double of the season. Murray (12.9-8.0-5.4) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Al\ldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes Forbes (14.5), backup PG White (11.9), Mills (11.6) and SF Green (10.5 & 6.9). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.2), he's averaging 7.8 RPG in only 20 minutes. Here's the bottom line. The Spurs' domination of the Celtics has 'long legs,' as San Antonio is 44-13 in their matchups with Boston since 1990. However, recent history, is more applicable.The Celtics last won at San Antonio in March 2011, before proceeding to drop 14 of their next 15 to Gregg Popovich's squad (Spurs are 11-3-1 ATS, 79% in that span, dating back SEVEN years). Brad Stevens has bested Popovich only ONCE, a 108-94 home win in October 2017. What changes here? NOTHING! Especially at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +2 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. Reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a historic start, as he is the first player in NBA history to exceed 200 points (232), 100 rebounds (114) and 50 assists (61) in the first eight games of season, as he's averaging 29.0-14.2-7.6. Giannis had a season-high 38 points to go with 16 rebounds and nine assists while leading the Bucks to a 129-124 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, a contest Kawhi sat out (???). The 6-2 Bucks visit the 5-3 Utah Jazz on Friday in search of their fifth straight win. Utah snapped a two-game slide with a 106-104 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, as star guard Donovan Mitchell had 24 points and a season-best eight assists. Middleton (18.6 & 5.2) continues too provide Milwaukee with a solid "second scoring option" to Antetokounmpo, while guards Bledsoe (14.5-5.8-4.5) and Hill (11.4) plus center Brook Lopez (10.4 & 4.4) also are averaging in double digits. The Bucks also own a deep bench, helping Milwaukee to average an NBA-high 122.1 PPG, while shooting a league-best 47.7% from the floor. Mitchell (25.5-4.8-3.9) is Utah's best player but he hardly stands alone. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.1 & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 49.5 percent from the floor and 44.4 percent from beyond the arc plus new PG Conley is finding his 'sea legs' after a poor start. He scored 15 points against the 76ers for his third 15-point outing in four games and he is averaging 17.8 points during the stretch. Let's NOT forget Rudy Gobert (11.2 & 12.5), who is the centerpiece" of the NBA's stingiest defense. Utah allows an NBA-low 96.6 PPG on 41.6% shooting (3rd). This game features the top-scoring team in NBA against its best defensive one. I'm "all in" on Milwaukee being the East's best team but winning in Salt Lake City is NEVER easy for any team (more in a bit). First let me note that the Jazz are 4-0 SU at home outscoring opponents 107.2-to-94.0 PPG. to open the current season (have beaten the LAC & Sixers). Let me also add that the Jazz are in the rare role of being a home dog in this one, having gone 19-9 in their last 28 games in that role (68%). Milwaukee comes in playing its THIRD road game in five days (note: Hill took an elbow to his eye at the end of Wednesday's game and could be limited) and how does one IGNORE this factoid? The Bucks have lost their last 15 visits to Utah, going a money-burning 2-13 ATS, which is an 87% "go-against". Case Closed, as Archie Bunker liked to say! Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Central) Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Not sure I've seem this before but Friday night, Central Division rivals Detroit and Indiana meet for the THIRD time in the season's first 18 days. The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG, but the Pistons have won both meetings this season, 119-110 at Indiana back on Oct 23 and then 96-94 in Detroit on Oct 28. Both teams come in off impressive offensive performances on Wednesday, as the Pistons routed the Knicks 122-102 and the Pacers beat the Wizards, 121-106. Detroit's Tony Snell (9.7) made all nine of his shots and became the first player in NBA history to shoot 100 percent from the floor with at least six 3-pointers in a 24-point effort. Center Andre Drummond (21.9 & 18.6) added 27 & 12 plus Markieff Morris (11.9 & 3.9) chipped in 22. Detroit shot 55.7 percent from the floor and recorded 37 assists (a season-high for the team). However, Detroit remains with out Blake Griffin (24.5-7.5-5.4 ), who has yet to play. What's more Derrick Rose (21.8 & 6.3 APG) has sat out the last two with a hamstring injury and won't play, starting PG Jackson has missed the last seven games and is expected to be out another month plus backup PG Tim Frazier remains listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. Victor Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury (possible return in Dec). The 6-11 Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) is questionable with an ankle injury and SG Lamb (17.0) will not play, also because on ankle issue. However, Indiana has won FOUR of five following an 0-3 start. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 22.2-5.0-9.9. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 20.3 & 12.3. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs Sampson (7.2) and McDermott (7.1) had big games vs Washington, as Sampson had 14 & 6 and McDermott 19 & 7. Detroit is 4-5 with HALF of its wins coming against the Pacers. Detroit's other two wins have come over the 3-4 Nets and 1-7 Knicks plus the Pistons have yet to win on the road (0-3 SU & ATS), except for their first game at Indiana. Indiana did lose at home to the Pistons to open the season but have gone 3-0 SU & ATS, since. The third time IS the charm, as the Pacers win this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Davidson +2 v. Auburn | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Davidson at 6:00 ET. Auburn made an incredible run to last year's Final 4, before losing 63-62 to eventual champ Virginia. The Tigers lost a 'ton' off that team, most notably guards Brown (15.9) and Harper (15.3) plus the 6-8 Okeke (12.0 & 6.8). However, the Tigers will start four seniors in 2019-20. In contrast, Davidson comes off a 24-10 season and returns all five starters. The two schools square off in the Veterans Classic in Annapolis at 6:00 ET with Auburn coming off a nine-point home win over Ga Southern on Nov 5 and Davidson playing its season-opener. The Wildcats return their entire starting lineup from last season, led by Atlantic 10 Player of the Year , PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson (16.9-7.3-4.8). He's joined on the perimeter by Kellan Grady, an all-conference pick who averaged a team-high 17.3 PPG last season and Luke Frampton (10.3 PPG last season). Starting up front are the 6-6 Pritchett (6.9 & 3.6) and the 6-10 (Drogkovic (11.1 & 6.0). Sure Auburn lost five contributors from last season, the Tigers opened this season starting FOUR seniors plus freshman Isaac Okoro, who head coach Bruce Pearl called the best defensive guard he's ever signed. Okoro scored 12 points and added five points in Tuesday's win. He joined those four seniors in the starting lineup. SF Doughtly led with 20 points, while frontcourt mates center Wiley (13 & 9) and PF Purify (13) also scored in double digits. Starting PG McCormick had nine points and four assists. Auburn snuck into the bottom of AP's preseason poll at No. 24, while Davidson was unranked. However, many think (including myself), that the Wildcats could easily be a top-25 team this season. For those "in the know," it should NOT go unnoticed that the Blue Ribbon CBB Yearbook ranked Davidson 17th! Auburn struggled against Ga Southern on Tuesday, most notably turning the ball over 21 times (averaged just 11.7 TOs per game last season). Bob McKillop starts his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall, with nine NCAA teams). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Not ready to say this year's team can match that one but the Wildcats are the A-10's best team and I expect they will be NCAA-bound. Expect the Wildcats to earn a "quality win" right out of the gate. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 3-0 but the team's 0-3 ATS start was a sign that everything wasn't "quite right." Right on cue, San Antonio dropped three of its next four games (1-3 ATS), with its lone win and cover coming over the depleted Golden St Warriors. The Spurs are hoping to bounce back during a three-game homestand that starts tonight with the 3-4 OKC Thunder coming to San Antonio. The Thunder are looking for their first road win (0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) but are coming off back-to-back victories at home, beating the Pelicans 115-104 on Saturday and the Magic 102-943 on Tuesday. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that OKC was in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, who trying to develop a defensive identity. So far, it seems to be working, as OKC is allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3). Speaking of "new," the team's top-four scorers are in the first season with the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (22.1-6.6-3.1) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (17.7 & 4.7), Paul (15.6-3.4-4.7) and Schroder (13.6-5.3-3.9). San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.6-4.9-4.1) and PF Aldridge (16.1 & 6.7) give the team a solid "Big 2." FIVE more players are averaging in double digits with Forbes (14.6), White (12.4), Murray (12.2-8.0-4.7) and Mills (11.9) joining DeRozan to give San Antonio a strong perimeter group. SF Gay (11.7 & 7.6) has been solid off the bench up front, while Tre Lyles starts at center, averaging 3.7 PPG but 8.3 RPG in just about 20 minutes (note: Lyles has pulled down double-digit rebounds in two of the last three games). Pop-coached teams used to be known for defense but these days, the Spurs are a middle-of-the-road defensive team (109.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th). San Antonio has a 63-23 all-time record against the Thunder franchise at home and the home team has won the last seven meetings between these two teams. Does that mean all that much? I'm not sure it does. However, let's look at the "new-look" Thunder's three wins in the current season. ALL have come at home and the victories have come over the 2-6 Warriors, 1-6 Pelicans and 2-6 Magic. Those three teams are a combined 5-18 (.218) SU, going 6-16-1 ATS (27.3%). This is not your father's Spurs but I expect them to easily avoid a a third straight loss by earning a "W' and with a modest impost, grab the ATS win, as well.. Good luck...Larry
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11-06-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Ohio St at 8:30 ET. Ohio St and Cincinnati met in last year's season opener with the Buckeyes winning 64-56 at Cincinnati. It was the first regular-season meeting in 98 years, as the school's renewed a dormant in-state rivalry. The two school's open their respective 2019-20 seasons again on Wednesday night, this time in Columbus. The Bearcats are off a 28-7 season, while making their NINTH straight NCAA appearance. However, head coach Mick Cronin has "taken his talents" to Westwood (UCLA), after a terrific 13-year run at Cincinnati. Taking over will be John Brannen, who comes from No. Kentucky, where he won 20-plus games in each of the last three seasons, earning the Norse NCAA bids in 2017 and 2019. Ohio St's Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and three NCAA bids later, got the job in Columbus. His first season was a 25-win one but last year, while the Buckeyes did get an NCAA bid, they lost in the first round to finish just 20-15. Senior guard Jarron Cumberland, was the 2019 American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, averaging 18.8-4.4-3.6 assists. He was the ONLY Cincy player to score in double digits. Guards Jenifer and Broome (8.6 & 8.3 PPG) have graduated and the 6-11 Brooks (8.1 & 6.3) transferred to Miami. Returning starters joining Cumberland are senior 6-8 forward Tre Scott (9.3 & 6.9) and junior guard Keith Williams (9.9 & 3.2). However, the Bearcats do have an influx of roster additions including 7-1 transfer Chris Vogt, who followed Brannen from Northern Kentucky plus two highly regarded freshman guards, Zach Harvey and Mika Adams-Woods.Throw in Jarron Cumberland's cousin Jaevin, a graduate transfer from Oakland (17.2 PPG) and the Bearcats will again be a top-contender in the AAC. The centerpiece of Ohio St's team this season will be will be 6-9 junior center Kaleb Wesson, a preseason All-Big Ten pick who shed some weight and could offer more mobility this season (he averaged 14.6 & 6.9 LY). Wesson led the Buckeyes with 23 points and seven rebounds in Ohio State's 95-52 exhibition victory over Division II Cedarville on Oct 30 plus Holtmann saw 5-star freshman recruit PJ Carlton score 15 points. Carlton is a PG but so is FSU transfer CJ Walker (he started for FSU's Elite 8 team in 2017). Ohio St will have a deep backcourt with Carlton and Walker plus returning guards Woods (8.1), Muhammad (7.6) and Washington (7.0). The 6-8 Young (6.0 & 4.4) joins Wesson up front, along with freshman Gaffney (6-9) and Diallo (6-10). Cincinnati's trip to Ohio State marks the teams' first game in Columbus since 1921 and the Bearcats' first opener on the road since 2001 at Oklahoma.What's more, Cincy takes the court with a new head coach for the first time in 14 years! As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes begin a challenging non-conference schedule that includes No. 10 Villanova at home, No. 11 North Carolina on the road, No. 2 Kentucky (now likely No. 1 after the MSU win!) in Las Vegas and West Virginia in Cleveland. However, Ohio St was 12-1 with its non-conference schedule last season, before struggling in the Big Ten. Cincinnati was a 28-win team last season, yet couldn't beat a lesser Ohio St team than it will face here, losing 64-56 at home. The Bearcats first visit to Columbus since 1921, "doesn't end well!" Good luck...Larry
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11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry this season but health will play a big factor. Poor health has already played a HUGE factor in Detroit's 3-5 start, as guards Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Reggie Jackson (back) were on the sidelines when the Pistons lost 115-99 at Washington on Monday plus Blake Griffin (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut. The Pistons welcome the NY Knicks to Detroit on Wednesday, who enter the contest with the worst record in the Eastern Conference (1-6) including an 0-4 mark on the road. New York fell behind by 26 points after three quarters at home against Sacramento on Sunday before falling 113-92. That embarrassing loss followed an excellent effort Friday in Boston, when the Knicks lost just 104-102. Forward Marcus Morris (17.9 & 5.4) scored 28 points in the loss to the Kings, but the other frontcourt starters, Julius Randle and Bobby Portis, combined for 10 points on 5-for-19 shooting. Randle scored 25 points in NY's season opener but has since averaged 11.5 PPG on shooting 38.4 percent from the floor, while missed all 14 of his three-point attempts.Portis is averaging 10.4 & 7.7. Rookie guard RJ Barrett (18.3 & 6.1) leads the team in scoring and had 22 points in the loss to the Kings, but he is 17-for-48 from the floor (35.4%) over the last three games, plus is 3-for-15 (20.0%) from three-point range over the last four. Remember Frank Ntilikina, the 8th pick of the 20187 Draft? He's averaging less than 20 minutes while averaging 3.2 PPG on 29.6% shooting (23/2% on threes). Detroit has played its first eight games this season without Griffin, who is still waiting for medical clearance after rehabbing hamstring and knee injuries. Starting point PG Reggie Jackson will miss at least a month of action due to a stress reaction in his lower back plus Jackson's backups, Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Tim Frazier (shoulder), have missed the past two games. However, the makeshift backcourt of Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown has been a bright spot for Detroit, as the pair is averaging a combined 42 points and 11.5 assists over the last two contests. Kennard has back-to-back 24-point efforts and is shooting 46 percent from beyond the arc overall and is now averaging 17.4 PPG on the season. Center Andre Drummond saw his 20-20 streak come to an end at three games in Monday's loss but he still managed his NBA-leading eighth straight double-double (15 & 24) ) out of the gate. Drummond's been a 'beast,' averaging 21.3 & 19.4! "It's the NBA. There are no excuses," Detroit head coach Dwane Casey told reporters after his depleted team scored just 38 second-half points on Monday. "We got enough guys in that room to compete, to fight." While Jackson will miss several more weeks, Rose is day-to-day and Griffin has indicated he is close to playing his first game. The good news is, the Knicks should (will) provide a soft landing spot for the Pistons, as they won and covered all FOUR meetings with the Knicks last season. "The Price is Right," and I'm "all over" Detroit! Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Michigan State v. Kentucky +3 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* No. 1 vs No. 2 Showdown in on Kentucky at 9:30 ET. For only the second time in NCAA Division I history, the No. 1 and 2 teams will open their seasons against each other, as No. 1 Michigan State takes on No. 2 Kentucky in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York on Tuesday. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history. Kentucky reached the Elite Eight of the 2019 NCAA Tournament and is ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, the NINTH straight top-five preseason ranking for the Wildcats (who says One-and-Done can't work?). The leader of Tom Izzo's squad is senior PG Cassius Winston, who averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists in winning Big Ten Player of the Year honors a season ago. The 6-8 Xavier Tillman emerged in the second half of the season in 2018-19, finishing with averages of 10.0 points and 7.3 rebounds. MSU also expected SG Joshua Langford (15.0 PPG before getting hurt last season) to be back but his ankle is now expected to keep him out until mid-January. Gone are the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), tje 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8). Winston is getting lots of "pub" (Blue Ribbon named him Player of the Year) but Kentucky also has an outstanding returning PG in Ashton Hagans, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals among returnees. There is a lot of buzz for Hagans' backcourt partner, freshman Tyrese Maxey, a McDonald's All-American who was named to the All-SEC preseason second team before he's stepped on the court. However, like MSU, Kentucky lost guards Herro (14.o) and Johnson (13.5) plus forwards Washington (15.2 & 7.2) and Travis (11.2 & 7.2). The key for me here is that Calipari has become the 'master' of the One-and-Done era and as he has in the past, quickly sees his team mesh. The starting-five will consist of two freshmen and two sophomores, plus graduate transfer Nate Sestina from Bucknell. He figures to be a welcome addition, as he will provide some needed experience. The 6-9 forward averaged 15.8 points and a Patriot League-best 8.5 rebounds a season ago,. I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost a lot (see above), will NOT get Langford back as expected (until 2020) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain. I'm calling for a Kentucky "W" and will take the points. Don't call it an upset. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Jimmy Butler missed the first three games of the season for the Heat (attending the birth of his child) but returned to score 21 points on Oct 29, as the Heat routed the Hawks in Miami, 112-97. He was held to just five points in a rematch with Atlanta on Oct 31 (Heat won in Atlanta) and then scored a modest 18 as the Heat beat the Rockets, 129-100 in Miami. That contest is notable in that the Heat sprinted to a 46-14 first-quarter lead, with the 32-point margin being the third largest in the shot-clock era! The 5-1 Heat open a three-game road trip tonight in Denver, taking on the 4-2 Nuggets. Denver opened 3-0 but then lost 109-106 at home to Dallas, before losing 122-107 at New Orleans on Halloween (more in a bit). Denver struggled to find an offensive rhythm in Saturday's 91-87 road win at the Orlando Magic, as it shot just 37 percent from the floor. Miami has opened well, notably posting an impressive overtime win at Milwaukee in the second game of the season without Jimmy Butler. EIGHT Miami players are averaging double figures in scoring and the big offseason acquisition, Butler, is just sixth on the team at 14.7 PPG, after missing the first three games of the season. Some bad news could be that Justise Winslow (14.8-8.5-5.8) is questionable (back), after sitting out the last two games. The team's guard play has been outstanding, with undrafted rookie Nunn (played at Oakland) leading the way by averaging 19.5 PPG, joined by vet Dragic (16.2 & 4.2 APG) and Kentucky rookie Herro (15.7 & 6.0). Murray (18.5-4.8-3.5) is leading the Nuggets in scoring, while Jokic (15.8-10.5-6.0) is right behind him. Denver is without question, the NBA's deepest team (at least 10-deep) and former HS prodigy Michael Porter Jr could lend a helping hand, as he made his NBA debut with 15 points on Halloween. Speaking of that Halloween game, head coach Michael Malone didn't hold back when he ripped his team's performance in that blowout loss at New Orleans. He called out the effort and commitment to defense, and the players responded with a win at Orlando two days later. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season but so far they haven't shown any killer instinct in Denver. They needed overtime to beat the Phoenix Suns in their home opener and then got outworked by the Dallas Mavericks in a home loss a few nights later. That said, Denver owned the NBA's best home record last season, going 34-7! Jokic led Denver ins coring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). Jokic is NOT off to a great start (see above), as he entered the Orlando contest averaging just 10.7 PPG over the previous three contests. Malone made it clear he wants his big man to take more shots. "For us to be at our best we need him to take at least 15 shots a night," Malone said in reference to Jokic taking just 14 total shots in back-to-back losses prior to the win over the Magic. " Denver was 2-0 against Miami last season and has won FOUR of the past five meetings. I'm pretty 'high' on this Denver team and it is overdue for a breakout home game. How about tonight? Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Kansas -2 v. Duke | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My NCAAB 10* Season Tip-Off is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Duke reached the 30-win mark for the 15th time in 39 years under Coach K in 2018-19 but despite being led by three top-10 picks in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Blue Devils fell short of a national championship, falling to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Kansas know more than a little about failing to meet expectations last season, as the Jayhawks did not win the Big 12 for the first time in 15 years, then bowed out of the NCAA Tournament in the Round of 32 against Auburn. Kansas enters this contest No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll and Duke checks in at No. 4. Duke owns a 7-5 series advantage over Kansas but the Jayhawks have won the last THREE meetings, including an Elite Eight overtime thriller at the end of the 2017-18 season. However, only two players from each side that played in that game remain on the roster of their respective teams (turnover is the rule in college hoops these days). Kansas had its season disrupturd early on last year, as center Udoka Azubuike was limited to nine games in 2018-19 due to a torn ligament in his right hand,. However, he's back healthy (averaged 13.0 & 7.0 in his last full season) and it should not go unnoticed that he was voted Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year by the league's coaches. Devon Dotson (12.3 PPG) was also a preseason all-conference first-team selection, after withdrawing his name from NBA Draft consideration this summer. Key new additions are Iowa graduate transfer Isaiah Moss (9.2 PPG and 42.1% from three-point range last season) plus when Michigan head coach John Beilein left for the NBA this summer, Self was able to land the highly-touted Jalen Wilson. The 6-8 freshman will help ease the loss of the 6-9 Dedric Lawson (19.4 & 10.3). PG Tre Jones (9.4 & 5.3 APG) was the only one of the four, five-star recruits from last season's recruiting class to delay his NBA dream (Zion, RJ and Cam all left. Jones is expected to be the only non-freshman starter on this year's team. Vernon Carey Jr. was ranked as the sixth-best recruit in the nation and gives the Blue Devils an interior presence at 6-10 and 275 pounds. that only Zion Williamson was typically able to provide a season ago. The 6-9 Matthew Hurt was Duke's other five-star from the most recent recruiting class, after averaging 36.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and five assists as a senior en route to being named Minnesota's Mr. Basketball. Checking the history books, Duke is the only one of the four programs (Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State are the others) with a winning record in this event at 5-3. However, it has lost both times it has faced Kansas (2013, 2016). As for Kansas, it has won its Champions Classic game in each of the past THREE seasons. Azubuike's return is a BIG deal, as the Jayhawks have won 47 of 56 career games. as for the Blue Devils, Duke used 11 players in the opening eight minutes of its second exhibition game, so will will have to see if Coach K has settled on which combinations to use. It could take some time. Kansas is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-19 | Pelicans v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 125-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season (Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). The Nets surprised last season going 42-40, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. However, the Nets have struggled out of the gate by going 2-4 but hope to pick up a home win against another sub-.500 team before beginning a challenging road trip. That opportunity comes Monday against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-5 (only the 1-6 Knicks are worse). A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. The Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson (out until mid-Dec) and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last three games with a knee injury. The Pelicans opened 0-4 of the season but last Thursday upset the Nuggets 122-107, with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) . He scored 19 points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win. However, the Pelicans lost 115-104 at OKC on Saturday, when leading scorer Brandon Ingram left the contest with a head injury. Ingram (23.5-7.5-4.2), Hart (13.5 & 7.7) and Ball (12.0-5.0-7.3) came from the Lakers in the deal for Davis. Ingram is listed as probable but Favors is more of a question. If he does not play Monday, Jahlil Okafor likely will be the starting center for the third straight game (Okafor has 41 points and 17 rebounds in his two starts). Irving (30.5-6.5-7.5) recorded his third career triple-double with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in Saturday's. He's joined by fellow guards Caris LeVert (1318.8-4.5-3.5) and Spencer Dinwiddie (15.2 & 5.0 APG). Joe Harris led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and is averaging 14.3 PPG and shooting 57.1% on threes, so far. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and he's averaging 15.5 & 6.3. Allen (7.7 & 9.7) and Jordan (6.5 & 1.0) have each made three starts at center (they form a solid duo). Here's the deal. The Pelicans are a poor defensive team, allowing 122.5 PPG (29th) on the season and have opened 0-3 on the road, allowing 123.7 PPG. The Nets upset Houston 123-116 here on Friday but then blew a 14-point lead at Detroit on Saturday, in the second contest of their first back-to-back set of the season. Back at home, the Nets figure to have few problems with the struggling New Orleans Pelicans. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the LA Clippers at 9:05 ET. The LA Clippers strongly believe that the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George make them STRONG contenders for an NBA championship this season. George is not expected to be ready until mid-November and until then (and likely all season), the Clippers will manage Leonard's workload. The 4-2 Clippers "did just that" last Thursday in Salt Lake City, resting Leonard for Friday night's home game with the Spurs. With Leonard 'sitting,' LA hung around until halftime (trailed by one) but then got outscored 38-20 in the third quarter, as the Jazz coasted to 110-96 victory. Lou Williams (in a rare start) scored a team-high 24 points, JaMychal Green had 23 points & 8) and Montrezl Harrell chipped in 10 points but NO other LA reached double figures PG Mike Conley enjoyed a breakout game with his new team in the win over the Clippers, going off for a season-high 29 points on 11-of-17 shooting, including 5-of-8 from three-point range. Leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (24.0 & 4.8) added 24 points in the victory, as the Jazz shot 55.0% as team and scored 110 points. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.4) & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 51.5 percent from the floor and 48.4 percent from beyond the arc but the Jazz are known for defense, not offense. Utah ranks first in points allowed (94.0 PPG) but although the Jazz are shooting 47.4% from the floor (5th), they are averaging only 101.0 PPG (27th). It's more than fair to say that Leonard and the Clippers are expecting a different outcome (from Thursday in SLC) when they host the Jazz on Sunday. Leonard was rested against the Jazz but the next night, 'dropped' 38 points on the Spurs (that had to feel good), as the Clippers remained unbeaten (3-0) at home. Leonard leads the team in scoring (29.2 points), rebounds (7.6) and assists (6.2). His play-making in the absence of a true PG on the roster is a big bonus for Los Angeles. "Kawhi's been easy to integrate," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "You just give him the ball. I'm no fool. But the spacing, what we've learned about Kawhi is how well he sees the floor and the type of passer that he is." Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (20.8 & 5.0 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.3 & 5.5) and Green (10.0 & 4.7), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. "Big-time revenge" on tap here and it works well, as the Jazz are 0-3 ATS on the road to open the 2019-20 season. The team's lone road win was in a one-point, non-covering victory at Phoenix.The Jazz are averaging 94.3 PPG on the road and that won't cut it against the revenge-minded Clippers, who shoot an NBA-best 49.6% from the floor, averaging 114.2 PPG. Remember Conley's effort Thursday night against the Clippers (see above for a reminder)? Take away that game and he's shooting 24.1% from the floor, including 20.7% on threes. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -3 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* "Battle of Losers" is on the OKC Thunder. The New Orleans Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last two games with a knee injury (doubtful for this one). However, the Pelicans won their first game of the season (opened 0-4) of the season on Thursday with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans will try to make it two in a row and earn their first victory on the road when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The Thunder also check in at 1-4, withe their lone victory coming 120-92 over Golden St back on Oct 27. A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. Brandon Ingram was one of the key players New Orleans received in that deal and he's averaging 26.8 PPG while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. Hart (13.8 & 6.2) and Ball (12.4-4.4-7.4) also came from the Lakers but the Pelicans are really happy to have Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) back in the lineup, after missing two games. He scored points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win plus helped solidify a defense that allowed an average of 130 points in his two-game absence. Jahlil Okafor started in place of Favors on Thursday and scored a team-high 26 points on 8-of-13 from the floor. Oklahoma City has failed to reach 100 points in three of its first five contests and was 4-of-27 from beyond the arc in Wednesday's 102-99 loss to Portland. "We got to the free-throw line quite a bit, which kept it close, but the 3-point line probably was the difference, and we just did not shoot it certainly as well as they did or as timely as they did," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan told reporters The Thunder underwent considerable offseason changes, with former MVP Russell Westbrook getting dealt to Houston in a trade that brought in 15-year veteran PG Chris Paul plus All-Star Paul George was sent to the Clippers in a deal that brought in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari. Here's the deal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6-7.0-3.2) and Danilo Gallinari (18.4 & 5.0) are the team's top-two scorers. PGs Paul (14.8-4.2-3.6) and Dennis Schroder (14.6-5.4-4.4) are also contributing nicely. Center Steven Adams (6.0 & 11.8) left-knee injury opened a starting spot for Nerlens Noel in the last contest and he played his best game of the season with 15 points and 14 rebounds. The Pelicans played "over their heads" vs Denver and the Thunder could really use a win over a VERY beatable foe.The home team took each of the four meetings last season and I see no reason for that to change here, even with two "new-look" squads. Also, "the price is right!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks 'jumped' all over the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday, taking a 58-42 lead at the half. However, Milwaukee got rolled in the second half, as the Celtics outscored them 74-47 in a 116-105 win. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 48 points on 18-of-28 shooting for Milwaukee but their teammates combined to shoot 37 percent and almost nobody could make a stop when it counted. The 2-2 Bucks continue a stretch in which they'll play NINE of 11 games away from home by taking on the Magic tonight in Orlando. The 2-2 Magic boast the top scoring defense in the Eastern Conference (93.8 PPG ranks 2nd in the NBA) but on the offensive end, have yet to score 100 points in a game. Orlando ranks 30th (last) in both scoring (95.8 PPG) and in FG percentage (39.5). Antetokounmpo, last year's MVP, is doing his usual thing averaging 23.8-13.5-8.0. Middleton is averaging 24 points over his last three games (he's 19-for-29 from the floor in the last two) and checks in averaging 20.8 & 6.5 through four games. The rest of the Bucks 'fell down' in Wednesday's loss at Boston but that's atypical. Bledsoe, Lopez and Matthews join Antetokounmpo and Middleton in the starting lineup and ALL average in double digits. Guard Hill (11.-3.8-4.8) plus swingmen Korver (9.3) and Connaughton (8.3) and PF Ilysova (8.5 & 7.3) come off the bench and ALL shoot better than 42.9% from three-point range (Korver leads with 50.0 percent). Milwaukee is averaging 119.2 PPG (4th) but is allowing 117.5 PPG (23rd). Orlando starts three guards in Fournier (17.8), Fultz (11.0) and Augustin (9.5 & 4.3 APG) with center Vicevic (15.8 & 11.3) and PF Gordon (9.0 & 6.3). Vucevic struggled to find his shooting touch through the first three games (hit 'rock bottom' at Toronto on Monday in going 1-for-13 from the floor) but scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in Wednesday's 95-83 victory over the Knicks. Orlando has to be at least slightly concerned over Gordon's slow start (see above), as he had averaged 17.6 & 7.9 and 16.0 & 7.4 the last two seasons. There is NOTHING wrong with Milwaukee's offense but its D is allowing 8.2 PPG more than it did last season, so while Milwaukee led all NBA teams in point-differential last season at plus-8.8, that figure sits at just plus-1.8 through four games of this season. Milwaukee had no success playing in Orlando from 2005 through 2015 but this Milwaukee team hardly resembles those past teams. The Bucks are off an embarrassing loss to the Celtics and will return home Sunday to host the defending champion Raptors on Sunday. Giannis and Co. were 17-4 ATS last season coming off a SU loss and the Bucks blew out Cleveland 129-112 in their first chance in that situation this year (Milwaukee had lost two nights earlier to Miami). Doing the math, that 18-4 ATS record translates to an 82% winning situation. Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:05 ET. Paul George is still sidelined for the Clippers but Kawhi Leonard has opened the season averaging 27.0 PPG (on 51.9% shooting), while adding 6.5 RPG and 7.5 APG. He's had two, 30-point efforts in LA's 3-1 start, including scoring 30 points (seven rebounds and six assists) in Monday's 111-96 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets. The Clippers are the NBA's 3rd-highest scoring team (121.5 PPG) and will visit Utah Jazz, who are allowing an average of 91.5 PGG (best in the NBA), after squeaking out a 96-95 road win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday to move to 3-1, as well. Until George returns, the Clippers best players (behind Leonard) are guard Williams (22.2 & 5.2 APG) and forward Harrell (20.5 & 6.8), who both come off the bench. Williams is a three-time Sixth Man of the Year and has rattled off FOUR straight 20-point efforts . Utah center Rudy Gobert (9.0 & 10.3) established season bests of 15 points and 18 rebounds against the Suns and notably went 11-of-12 from the free-throw line. Guard Donovan Mitchell scored 25 points, his third 20-point outing of the season, and checks in averaging 24.0-5.-3.3. A HUGE addition for has been Bojan Bogdanovic. Mitchell and Bogdanovic have formed a nice 1-2 punch, with Bogdanovic averaging 23.7 PPG. Both players are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three-point range. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup and yes the Jazz are averaging only 98.8 PPG (28th), but the Clippers have only held one opponent under 100 points (1-3 Charlotte), while allowing 112.5 PPG (20th). Quin Snyder has led the Jazz to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court and it's only a matter ot time until PG Conley breaks out of his early-season slump. The PG signed as a FA from Memphis, entering his first season in Salt Lake City averaging 20.5, 17.1 and 21.1 PPG the previous three seasons. The Jazz have won FIVE of the past seven meetings with the Clippers, including 111-105 in the lone matchup in Salt Lake City last season, behind 32 points from Mitchell. The Jazz are 57-25 SU at home the last two seasons (have opened 2-0 TY, outscoring opponents 106.5-to-91.5 PGG) and really have no 'number' to cover in this one. The Clippers allowed 122 points at Golden St in a blowout win and 130 at Phoenix in an eight-point loss. Jazz take this one, as defense tops offense! Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs have opened 2-0, rallying to win a sloppy opener against the NY Knicks 120-111 on Wednesday but then delivered much better effort in knocking off Washington 124-122 on Saturday. However, both wins have been non-covers. San Antonio is home for a third straight game to open the new season and looks to start 3-0 for the THIRD time in four seasons when the team completes its homestand Monday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland lost its home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland has won back-to-back road games to move to 2-1 on the season, posting a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, before outlasting the Mavs 121-119 last night in Dallas. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. Lillard is a "special" player who I think is under-appreciated. Consider this. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list.Lillard has opened averaging 31.7-4.0-6.) and McCollum got untracked last night at Dallas, scoring 35 points. McCollum was 13-of-36 from the floor in averaging 15.5 points in the team's first two contests but made 13-of-26 shots in Sunday’s victory while adding six rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals (McCollum is averaging 22.0 after three games). Center Hassan Whiteside, who was acquired from Miami in the offseason, was held to six points against Dallas but hauled in 14 rebounds and has connected on 17 of his 21 field-goal attempts in the first three games (14.7 & 14.0 thru three games). San Antonio's 1-2 'punch' consists of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and guard DeMar DeRozan. Aldridge is off to a strong start with 49 points in the first two games and has pulled down 17 rebounds. He needs 14 more rebounds to become the 72nd player in NBA history with 8,000. DeRozan struggled against the Knicks (3-of-10 from the floor) but score 26 in Saturday’s win Fellow guards Murray (18.5) and Forbes (18.0) are also off to solid starts for the Spurs. Popovich has limited the minutes of Murray in the first two games after the 23-year-old missed all of last season due to knee surgery, making his 18.5 PPG average in more impressive, as his 5.0 APG. This is San Antonio's third straight home game, while Portland i on a four-game road trip and will be playing its THIRD game in four night in this one. The home team won all four meetings last season, while covering each one as well. Portland is still waiting for center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) to return from his leg fracture plus many of its role players from last year are elsewhere. Aminu is in Orlando, Kanter in Boston, Seth Curry in Dallas , Layman in Minnesota and Turner in Atlanta. Home team wins and covers again, tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-19 | Pacers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers bowed out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. These two met last Wednesday night in the season-opener for both and the Pistons upset the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse 119-110 behind a monster game from Andre Drummond (32 & 23) The Pacers followed up their season-opening loss to Detroit by falling 110-99 at Cleveland on Saturday and are looking for more intensity on the defensive end.. "They pretty much did whatever they wanted," Indiana coach Nate McMillan told reporters after the latest setback. "We're not stopping anyone. They dominated the paint once again. More physical than we were throughout this game. ... More aggressive team. More scrappy team. We dug ourselves a hole we couldn't get out of." Indiana couldn't handle Drummond (see above) last Wednesday and struggled to defend the Cleveland frontcourt of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in Saturday's loss (the duo combined for points and rebounds). The bright spot for Indiana has been Malcolm Brogdon, who has averaged 26 points and 10.5 assists while recording a double-double in both games. Brogdon came from Milwaiukee but two other newcomers had show n promise as well, with TJ Warren averaging 11.0 PPG (former Sun) and Lamb has averaged 10.0 PPG (former Hornet). Detroit is still waiting for star forward Blake Griffin ( 24.5-7.5-5.4 ) to make his season debut (knee issue) and is also working around an injury to starting point guard Reggie Jackson. His back problem made him sit out the game vs Philly, after averaging just 5.0 PPG (on 36.4% shooting) in the first two games. Detroit's best player in the early going has been former MVP Derrick Rose (25.3, on 64.% shooting & 5.0 APG), but the team is reluctant to push the oft-injured star past 30 minutes and is committed to keeping him with the second unit (he's averaged 26.3 minutes). Indiana is 0-2 but I see them avenging last Wednesday's home loss, as the Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Griffin is expected out until sometime in November and PG Jackson is listed as doubtful for this one. Indiana has a strong inside duo with Sabonis averaging 20.5 & 9.0 and Turner 18.0 & 10.0 plus the team's bench HAS to better than its 7 of 23 effort (16 points) last Wednesday. Pacers get that first "W." Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Dal Mavs at 7:05 ET. The Trail Blazers lost their home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland evened its record with a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, as Damian Lillard scored 35 points. As for Dallas, which won a modest 33 games last season, the Mavs have opened 2-0 with a 108-100 home win over the Wizards (Weds), followed by a 123-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Dallas is off to its best start since the 2004-05 team began 4-0 and will try to stay unbeaten tonight, when the Mavs host the Blazers. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. The Blazers are waiting for center Jusuf Nurkic to recover from a leg fracture suffered last March but he is likely out until at least February. His absence makes Al-Farouq Aminu’s off-season departure hurt even more. However, the Blazers are thrilled with what they've seen out of center Hassan Whiteside in the first two games. He's averaged 19.0 & 14.0. Lillard has averaged 33.5 PPG on 53.7% shooting but McCollum has averaged only 15.5 PPG on 36.1% shooting. Dallas hasn't made the postseason since 2015-16 and last won a playoff series in its 2010-11 championship season but has ridden Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to a 2-0 start. Doncic is averaging 29.5-9.5-6.5 and Porzingis 23.5 & 4.0. Doncic had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists versus Sacramento, giving him nine career triple-doubles, the most by a player younger than 21 in NBA history. Delon Wright is hoping he's found a home in Dallas (this is his sixth season and THIRD team) and he added 20 points, seven rebounds and five steals in Friday's win. I'm not sure how many know just how good Lillard is but maybe this will help. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list. However, even last year's Portland team which made the Western Conference Finals, had trouble with the a 33-win Dallas team. The clubs split the four-game series last season (home team was 4-0), with the contests decided by a total of just 21 points. What's more, Dallas has covered FIVE straight and 19 of the last 25 against Portland, going 10-3 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Arena.Dallas moves to 3-0. Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 92-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. A Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder matchup no longer features the same allure, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook out of the picture. Rather, it's a matchup of two teams searching for their 2019-20 'identities.' Golden St lost Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to injury (he's recovery from knee surgery). Golden State also said goodbye to key veterans Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala from a team that made FIVE straight NBA Finals appearances (three wins). OKC lost Durant via free agency to Golden St after the 2015-16 season and this past off-season, traded away Russell Westbrook plus Paul George left via free agency for the Clippers, after a two-season stay with the Thunder. The Warriors hardly looked like a contender in their season-opener against the Clippers on Thursday, as they were run off their home floor by LA in a 141-122 loss. The Clippers were the team that shot 'lights out' from beyond the arc (18 of 32), while the Warriors shot just 39.4 percent a s team. Curry has 23 points but made just 2-of-11 from three-point range and committed eight turnovers in 30 minutes. "This is not a one-off, this is the reality," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after the loss. "There's going to be nights like this this year. You've got to play through it, you've got to keep fighting and keep getting better. That's the plan." Draymond Green said it better, telling reporters, "We (expletive) sucked! And we gotta get better. I'm not a coach, so I'm not about to go watch a film and say, 'Oh, well we can build on this.' I really don't give a damn about what we can build on. We sucked tonight, and we gotta get better overall. And that's just what it is." Chris Paul came to OKC in the Westbrook deal but he's averaged only 14.0-5.-3.5 in OKC's first two games, while shooting 41.7 percent. The lone bright spot offensively for Oklahoma City in the first two games has been guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came over in the trade that sent Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers. He is getting a chance at a larger role and he's averaged 27.0 PPG on 50.0% shooting, including 45.5% on threes. However, OKC has opened with a road loss at Utah (100-95) and a 97-85 home setback against the Washington Wizards on Friday. I've often said that Paul is the NBA's most overrated superstar, as he's NEVER led his team to even a SINGLE Conference Final (some leader: He was held to six points and committed five turnovers in Friday's home-opener). Sure, the Warriors are down but I'm not ready to cont them out. The Warriors will be glad to see that Paul George and Russell Westbrook have moved elsewhere plus it's VERY possible OKC may just be "peeking ahead" to Monday's game in Houston, where former Thunder stars Harden and Westbrook now 'live.' Golden St bounces back in a big way! Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | Top | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The reigning NBA champion Toronto Raptors were lucky to escape on "Ring Night' (Tuesday), as they needed OT to put away the New Orleans Pelicans, 130-122 ('miracle' cover). However, Friday night's game at Boston against the Celtics had nothing to do with good or bad luck, as the Raptors coughed up a seven-point lead in the final 10 minutes of a 112-106 setback. The Raptors are scheduled to play 14 sets of back-to-back games this season, slightly above the league average of 12.4, and the first of those 14 comes tonight in Chicago. The Bulls won just 22 games in 2018-19 but has come within a 'whisker' of opening 2-0 this season. The Bulls dropped a 126-125 decision at Charlotte on Wednesday, before winning 110-102 at Memphis last night. Both teams played last night but for Chicago, it is the team's home opener. Pascal Siakam has been outstanding in the first two games of the post-Kawhi Leonard era for Toronto, totaling 67 points and 26 rebounds while going 7-for-12 from three-point range. Veteran PG Kyle Lowry has stepped up without Leonard as well, averaging 25.5 points and 6.5 assists in the first two games of the season. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka has scored 13 points off the bench in each of the first two games. Toronto head coach Nick Nurse will need to develop a deeper rotation (especially in back-to-backs like this), as only eight Raptors logged time in Tuesday's season-opening victory against New Orleans and just nine did so during a 112-106 road loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Zach LaVine scored a modest 16 points in the season opener but was 13-for-23 from the floor in Friday’s victory (37 points) and grabbed six rebounds, as Chicago outscored Memphis 63-42 in the second half. Power forward Lauri Markkanen recorded 35 points and 17 rebounds in the season-opener but then missing nine of his 10 FG attempts (scored just nine points) plus turned over the ball five times against the Grizzlies. How about some consistency, guys? In contrast, rookie guard Coby White has been impressive in his first two NBA contests, scoring 17 points in the opener and coming back with 25 while adding six assists in the win over the Grizzlies (he scored 21 points in Chicago's big second half). Toronto swept Chicago 4-0 last season (average MOV was 19.2 points!) and note that Kawhi played in just two of them. Obviously, Kawhi was the key to Toronto's title last season but while the Raptors were 41-19 in the regular season in his 60 appearances, they were also 17-5 when he was in “load management” mode. Let's also not forget that Toronto also still has SIX of its seven major contributors back (only Green left with Kawhi) and the Raptors have 'owned' Chicago, having won NINE in a row over the Bulls. Let's also remember that Chicago was a 'money-burning' 14-27 ATS at home last season. Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The Jazz are playing in the 'loaded' Western Conference but Quin Snyder has led the team to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Reports are that the Jazz have signed him to a long-term contract extension and it's well-deserving. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court. The Jazz opened the season with an unimpressive 100-95 victory over the now-depleted OKC Thunder and tonight will visit Staples Center to take on the Lakers. The Lakers were outclassed by the Clippers on Tuesday night (many teams will be this season), losing 112-102. Utah's star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting and collected a career-best 12 rebounds in Wednesday's win. Mitchell became the fourth different player in Utah history to have at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in a season opener, joining Hall of Famers Karl Malone (four times) and Adrian Dantley ,as well as Carlos Boozer. However, the team's new PG, Mike Conley, suffered through a horrific 1-of-16 shooting performance while scoring five points in his team debut. Some good news was that Bojan Bogdanovic, another key off-season addition, scored 16 points in 24 minutes, despite missing part of the game after twisting his left ankle. The Lakers jumped out to a 13-2 lead over the Clippers on Tuesday night but were quickly caught. However, a 15-0 run in the third quarter put the Lakers ahead but they folded down the stretch, getting outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter. Davis had 25 points and 10 rebounds in his LA debut, while LBJ added 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists (shot just 7 of 19). The surprising star was guard Danny Green, who has 28 points on 10-14 shooting (including 7 of 9 on threes). There's been a lot of hype with A.D. joining LBJ in LA but it's fair to say the jury is still out on the Lakers (Kuzma returning will give us a better idea). That said, the Jazz were a 50-win team last season, while the Lakers won just 37 games. Still, the Lakers beat the Jazz in both games played at Staples, one with LBJ and one without. The Lakers have to be a little bit 'pissed' at losing Tuesday's game vs the Clippers (and Kawhi), so I think the Jazz are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the 2018-19 season by 'aying an egg' at Philly on Wednesday, losing 107-93. All five Philly starters scored in double digits, while the Celtics shot 36.7% as a team (including 26.9% on threes), with newcomer Kemba Walker scoring 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting. The Raptors began their title defense with a 130-122 overtime win against New Orleans on Tuesday at home. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet scored 34 points apiece as Toronto had a successful first step in its post-Kawhi Leonard era. However, the Raptors never came close to putting away the Pelicans (playing with Zion and MANY new players). VanVleet started just 28 games during Toronto's title run after coming off the bench exclusively in his first two seasons but he figures to be a catalyst for the starting five and showed his readiness in the opener by shooting 12-for-18 from the floor and dishing out a team-high seven assists (34 points were a career-high). Siakam's effort was no surprise, as he was the NBA's Most Improved Player in the regular season and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. Toronto played with a short bench on Tuesday, as just eight players got "PT." The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). However, Walker 'flopped' in his Boston debut (see above) and while Jayson Tatum scored 21, he was only 8-of-22 from the floor, including 4-of-14 inside the arc. The bright spot in the opener was the play of forward Gordon Hayward. He averaged just 11.5 PPG in primarily coming off the bench in 2018-19, his first season back from a devastating leg injury sustained during his first game as a Celtic in 2017. However, back in the starting rotation, Hayward scored 25 on Wednesday to pace the team, ahead of Tatum's 21. Boston couldn’t handle Phiily's frontcourt of Embiid-Horford and Harris plus Simmons added a line of 24-8-9. However, expect a bounce-back here at the TD Garden. The Raptors were VERY lucky to cover on "Ring Night," despite a career-high from VanVleet and a monster game from Siakam. The Raptors can't count on similar efforts here, as the Celtics make their home debut. Conversely, look for Walker to put his Wednesday effort behind him in front of his new home crowd. Boston owns FIVE straight home wins over Toronto, going 4-1 ATS. This is Boston's night! Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden St Warriors have reached the NBA Finals in each of the last five seasons, winning the title three times. However, for the first time since the 2014-15 Warriors won the title, Golden State will enter a regular season without being the favorites in the Western Conference. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to free agency after falling to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals last spring and are also expected to spend most (all?) of season without All-Star guard Klay Thompson. Also, a key contributor to those championship teams, Andre Iquodala, is playing in Memphis. The Warriors played three times at their new San Francisco-based home in the preseason but tonight's contest against the LA Clippers will be the first regular season game played at Chase Center. The Clippers remade the top of their roster with the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the off-season, although George is not ready to play, as he continues to rehab from shoulder surgery. Without George, the Clippers relied on Leonard and their talented bench to beat the Lakers 112-102 in their season-opener Tuesday night. Kawhi had 30 points (only starter in double digits) and each of the four reserves used scored in double figures, totaling 60 points. Veteran sixth man Lou Williams led the "Bench Brigade" with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Harrell added 17 (he averaged 16.6 & 6.5 in 26 minutes LY). The Clippers withstood an opening 13-2 run by the Lakers and later a 15-0 run, by holding the Lakers to 17 points in the final quarter of the 10-point win. As noted above, Durant and Iquodala have moved on and Thompson is sidelined. However, head coach Steve Kerr has new additions D'Angelo Russell (formerly with Brooklyn), Glenn Robinson III (Detroit Pistons) and Marquese Chriss (Cleveland Cavaliers). Of course, Curry is the leader and as Kerr stated, "It's the perfect time physically and mentally where everything's come together," Kerr old reporters of Curry during training camp. "He's in his prime age-wise, strength and conditioning-wise and defensively he's seen everything that's come his way. Teams have played him every possible way that you could think of, and he's had years now to work on counters. So, he's kind of in his sweet spot right now, and he has been the last couple years. And hopefully that continues for the next few years. But he's an amazing player." Then there is the ever-aggressive Draymond Green, who is one of the few defenders that has the capability to slow down Kawhi. Clippers are off the 'high' of beating the Lakers on Tuesday, while for the first time since 2/20/14, the Warriors are a home dog. They beat the Rockets 102-99 (OT) in that one at plus-1.5. No OT needed here, as the Warriors grab the win. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. Philadelphia watched Kawhi Leonard's shot bounce multiple times off the rim and then through the basket to eliminate them in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in May. The Sixers then had to regroup and rebuild their roster, after losing Jimmy Butlerto the Heat and JJ Redick to the Pelicans. Philly got guard Josh Richardson from Miami in the Butler deal but the team's key acquisition was getting Al Horford to leave key rival Boston and sign with the 76ers. That duo joins All-Star center Joel Embiid and all-around standout Ben Simmons. The Celtics not only lost Horford but also lost Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn. The good news is that Boston added Kemba Walker from Charlotte, who averaged a career-high 25.6 PPG with the Hornets last season. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). Embiid ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.5), second in rebounding (13.6) and sixth in blocks (1.9) while playing a career-high 64 games last season. He'll anchor the mammoth front line with Horford and 6-9 Tobias Harris, who averaged a career-high 20 points in 2018-19. The 6-10 Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) was one of three players in the league to record at least 10 triple-doubles. Also, don't dismiss the addition of Josh Richardson, who will replace J.J. Redick. He averaged a career-high 16.6 PPG with Miami last season. Boston has had Philly’s number the past couple of years and won another three of four last season (7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings) bu t 'Sixer-killer' Kyrie Irving has moved on to Brooklyn, while Al Horford is now in a Philadelphia uniform. His versatility and ability to spell Joel Embiid should be big for Philly this coming season. I expect the 76ers to make a statement with a 'comfortable' win (meaning cover) against their recent nemesis. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Wolves v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season *Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). Irving will make his regular-season debut for the Nets on Wednesday against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota made its first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2017-18 by going 47-35 but the Timberwolves took a step back in 2018-19, falling to 36-46. In contrast, the Nets went 42-20 last season, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. The T-wolves revolve around star centers Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG and a career-high 12.4 RPG last season. Minnesota struck out in its pursuit of any big name acquisitions this off-season, but it filled some holes around Towns with the additions of forwards Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. I hardly see that as being enough. A healthy Jeff Teague will help but while Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.1 PPG last season, he shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the floor (has he proved worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft?). Irving will join fellow guards Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 & 4.6 APG) and Caris LeVert (13.7). Throw in Joe Harris (13.7), who led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and the Nets own a talented backcourt. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and given a two-year extension worth $29 million this week. Center Jarrett Allen took a big step in his second season, averaging 10.9 & 8.4 while shooting 59 percent from the floor (tied for seventh in the NBA). Obviously, the Nets become a lot more interesting whenever Kevin Durant suits up, but look at what head coach Kenny Atkinson did last season. The Nets were just 8-18 through Dec 5, before winning 19 of 24 games to reach 27-23 through Jan 25. The Nets finished 42-40 and I expect them to be better this season. As for the T-wolves, NOT so much. Minnesota was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season (allowed 114.0 PPG) and went a pathetic 11-30 SU on the road. Kyrie wins his Brooklyn debut, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers and bowing out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. The Detroit Pistons have a new head coach in Dwane Casey but he's hardly new to the NBA, as he won the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors. Six-time All-Star Blake Griffin will miss the start of the season due to hamstring and knee soreness. It's likely he will miss several games, with the team saying he will be reevaluated in the first week of November. PG Jackson and newly forward Markieff Morris are both listed day-to-day with nagging injuries. Detroit also added former MVP Derrick Rose but we all know his injury history. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down witha season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team and has raised his activity level to five-on-five scrimmages but there is still no timetable for his retur. His absence will hurt a little less due to a pair of shrewd off-season additions, Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte) and TJ Warren. Brogdon has averaged 12.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting on threes in his three seasons with Milwaukee, Lamb averaged a career-high 15.3 PPG with Charlotte last season and Warren has posted averages of 19.6 and 18.0 PPG the last two years with Phoenix. The Pacers also own an excellent interior duo of center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.2 plus an NBA-best 2.7 blocked shots per game) and forward Domantas Sabonis, who made considerable career strides in 2018-19.He averaged 14.1 & 9.3 rebounds (he just signed a four-year, $77 million extension on Monday). The Pacers are a solid team (were 32-15 before Oladipo went down) and have made some excellent off-season moves. Griffin has been a career underachiever who always seems to get injured (no different to start this season). The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Season-Opening Tip-Off is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA champions and help tip-off the 2019/20 NBA season by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the game has lost some luster, as not only is Kawhi Leonard now a Clipper but the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, is expected to be sidelined for the first month of the season. Of course, A.D. was traded by the Pelicans to the Lakers plusJulius Randle (who averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG with the Pelicans last season) signed with the Knicks. TNT knew about the trades/moves but can't too happy at Zion Williamson’s preseason knee injury. New Orleans will have FOUR new starters once Williamson returns, with PG Lonzo Ball and SF Brandon Ingram joining the team in the deal for Davis and center Derrick Favors coming over via trade from the Utah Jazz. The lone holdover is guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7), He's the best player in a crowded backcourt rotation that includes newcomers Josh Hart and JJ Redick along with holdovers Frank Jackson and E'Twaun Moore and rookie Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Head coach Alvin Gentry will have a heard time finding time for everyone and naturally, he can't wait for Zion to return. "It's just a situation where some nights, guys just aren't going to play," Gentry told reporters. "For us to be a really good team, you are going to have to accept that, with the understanding some nights the other guys are going to play. There's just no getting around it. We do have a lot of players who are very similar skill-wise who are multiple position guys." Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) is also in LA with Kawhi, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news is that head coach Nick Nurse has a familiar cast still around. Siakam (was the NBA's Most Improved Player and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry has been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without. He'll be asked to score more with Kawhi gone but don't forget that he is also a former Defensive Player of the Year. Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believe Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). The Pelicans are still "finding their way," while the Raptors will be out to prove that they can win without Kawhi. Raising the banner and handing out rings is typically a distraction but in this case I expect "We The North" to provide an electric atmosphere for tonight's contest. Toronto was a dominating 32-9 SU at home last season and has won SEVEN of its last eight meetings with New Orleans, which is now with A.D. & Randle, plus will have to wait awhile before Zion is ready. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -2.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. The Raptors were minutes away from securing Canada's first-ever NBA title Monday in Game 5 but three PERFECT three-pointers (talk about "nothing but net!"), two from Klay Thompson and one by Steph Curry, provided Golden St with a 9-2 finishing run to give the Warriors a 106-105 victory. It marked the first one-point Finals margin since 2007 and the Warriors became just the SIXTH team in NBA history to win an elimination game on the road. It's now Game 6 in Oakland but the Warriors still face this daunting NBA 'footnote.' Of the 34 teams that have led a Finals 3-1 like Toronto, 33 have gone on to win the championship. The only exception being the Warriors in 2016, when the Cavaliers rallied (with help of Draymond Green) to win in seven games. Kawhi Leonard scored 26 points in Game 5, including 10 straight in the late fourth quarter, allowing Toronto to open a 103-97 lead, that the Raptors couldn't hold. However, he did shoot only 9-of-24 from the floor, including 2 of 7 on threes. Starting guards Lowry and Green combined to shoot 1 of 10 from three-point range. KD returned in Game 5 for Golden St and made all three 3-point attempts, scoring 11 points in 12 minutes of play. However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon. Curry scored 31 and Thompson 26 for the Warriors plus center DeMarcus Cousins was a HUGE factor. He was going to receive diminished minutes in Game 5 but Durant's injury led to more court time and he turned out to be a key contributor, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds in 20 minutes. The home team is just 1-4 SU & ATS in the Finals but i just CAN'T pass up the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles in the its FINAL game at Oracle Arena (Warriors will move to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season). The game may come down to this simple stat. The team which shoots better from three-point range will win. The Raptors have outscored the Warriors 120-96 from beyond the arc in their three wins, while Warriors own a 99-57 advantage in points from 'long-range' in their two victories. With or without KD, I never thought we'd see the Warriors this small of a favorite in a home playoff game, no less a "must-win" one in the franchise's final home game on this court. See you Sunday in Toronto! Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +105 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. The Toronto Raptors won both games in Oakland to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and Monday can complete the team's historic mission in front of its home crowd. The Warriors led early in Game 4 but a 37-21 third quarter by Toronto eliminated any suspense. Kawhi kept Toronto close in the first quarter (scored 14 of the team's 17 points) and then helped lead the third-quarter charge (added another 14 points). Leonard is averaging 31.1 PPG in Toronto's 22 postseason games but the team's complementary players continue to "take turns" coming up 'big.' In Game 4, Serge Ibaka recorded a postseason-high 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting. K.D. missed his NINTH straight game for Golden State, while Klay Thompson made a strong return after missing Game 3 with a strained left hamstring. He scored 28 points with six 3-pointers. Steph Curry added 27 points but shot just 9 for 22 and 2 of 9 from three-point range on the heels of his postseason career-best 47-point outing in a 123-109 Game 3 defeat. Draymond Green is averaging 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the series but has not been "Disruptor-in-Chief." Kevin Durant's availability for Game 5 uncertain. The two-time Finals MVP returned to practice on Sunday and is being listed as questionable. Good news for the Warriors is that Kevon Looney scored 10 points in 20 minutes off the bench in Game 4 after missing Game 3 (chest injury).For Toronto, starting guards Lowry and Green combined for 41 points in the Game 3 win (made 11 of 19 three-pointers but then for just 13 points in Game 4, shooting 4 of 20 overall, including 1 of 11 on threes. What can we expect in Game 5? The atmosphere in Toronto will be charged with anticipation and excitement. "They're going to be going crazy in Toronto," Raptors coach Nick Nurse said. "And my message to (the team) is we have never really talked about the series score, can't let people take you someplace you aren't yet, right, and we know this is a great team and we know how hard we have to play to beat them." Meanwhile, the Warriors have experience on both sides of a 3-1 series margin. They were down to the OKC Thunder in 2016 during the Western Conference semifinals and won, then led the NBA Finals 3-1 that year against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and lost. "You just try to win one game," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "That's what we did a few years ago against OKC (when down 3-1 in the Western Conference finals). Win one game, and then you move forward. So, that's our focus now. ... We have won a lot of games over the years, so we'll try to win another one." K.D. or no K.D, I'm backing the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles. As for Game 6??? Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions! Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation. The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 8:07 ET. he Toronto Raptors own homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals but the Golden St Warriors entered the Finals as the favorite. After all, the Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles. Game 1 was Toronto's first-ever NBA Finals appearance, while Golden State's was playing in the team's 23rd Finals game since since 2015. The Warriors had won 12 straight playoff Game 1s, while the Raptors took the court just 3-15 in playoff openers . However, Toronto shot 50.6 percent from the floor and got strong performances from starters Pascal Siakam (32-8-5) Kawhi Leonard (23-8-5) and Marc Gasol (20 & 7), plus Fred VanVleet added 15 points off the bench in a 118-109 Game 1 victory. Curry had 34 points (his SIXTH straight 30-plus effort) and Thompson added 21 but Golden St's other three starters combined for just 18 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Green accounted for 10 of those points (he had another triple-double at 10-10-10), but shot just 2 of 9. The Warriors are still missing Kevin Durant (calf) and swingman Andre Iguodala (calf) is banged up. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) played for the first time since the first round in Game 1 but managed three points in eight minutes off the bench. His status is unclear. Siakam scored a postseason career-high in points on 14-of-17 shooting in Game 1, as KD's defense may have been missed more than his offense.That said, can Siakam possibly play that well again? How about Gasol or VanVleet? Leonard was solid in Game 1 but there remain 'whispers' that he's less than 100 percent, physically. Looking at Game 2, the Warriors are not in panic mode following the early loss. "The experience helps," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "Winning multiple championships helps because you have seen it all. There's also just the knowledge that you've been here before. You've been down. We have been up 3-1 and lost a series. We have been down 3-1 and won a series. Everything in between. So, nothing is going to catch these guys off guard, and they are very accustomed to the rhythm and tone of a seven-game series and how long it takes, how many twists and turns there are." My bet says the champs rise to the challenge and head back to Oakland tied at one-all.
Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals open Thursday and naturally, no one is surprised the Warriors are playing for their THIRD straight championship and FOURTH in five year. However, the Toronto Raptors will take the court tonight to play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Warriors will open the series without Kevin Durant, who has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury. Center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." The Raptors have ridden Kawhi Leonard (31.2 & 8.8) to the Finals and Toronto has homecourt advantage in the series due to a better regular-season record than Golden State. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings, 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov 29 and 113-93 on Dec 12 in Oakland. Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the LA Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part."The bottom line is, do the Warriors even need Cousins (or Durant, for that matter)? Since KD went down in game 5 of the Houston series, Curry has been nearly unstoppable. He's averaged 35.8 PPG in the Warriors' last five games, never scoring less than 33 points or more than 37, in any game (talk about consistency). He capped that five-game run with a triple-double (37-13-11) in Golden St's Game 4 win over Portland (capping a 4-0 sweep). Draymond Green joined Curry in that contest with his own triple-double (18-14-11), marking the first time in NBA history that two teammates each delivered a triple-double in the same game. Green been a 'beats' since Game 6 of the LAC series, averaging 14.6-11.4-8.5 over an 11-game span, with eight double-doubles (including four triple-doubles). Throw in Klay Thompson (22.6 PPG since KD's been out) and the Warriors are just fine with or without KD or surely, Cousins. Leonard's performance in the 2019 playoffs has again having him being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA. That said, only Siakam (18.7 & 9.0) and Lowry (14.2-5.2-6.4) join him in double digits plus neither player as participated in an NBA Final. VanVleet comes in averaging 16.0 PPG over his last three games, connecting on 68% of his shots. Pause for a moment and note that even with this three-game outburst, VanVleet is averaging only 6.0 PPG on 35.9% shooting in Toronto's 18 playoff games. Yes, Leonard has led Toronto to where it has "never gone to before" but I won't overlook the team's 3-15 record in playoff openers (1-2 this postseason), especially against the champion Warriors. The Raptors have faced a series deficit in each round of the playoffs so far this year, so what changes here? Good luck...Larry |