Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish. |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 148 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles. |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 86 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore. |
|||||||
12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran. |
|||||||
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 120 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For me its decent defensive play and strong run games. Both teams have above-average quarterbacks directing the show as well though. Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are poised for a big game here on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last six at home, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 20 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it. This is a 9* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rams/Cards. |
|||||||
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 179 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out. The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles. |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER. |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 46.5 | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Browns are 7-3 and ready to finally break out with a big offensive game. Cleveland has had to deal with plenty of inclement weather conditions the last few weeks, but now this high-powered offense can be unleashed in sunny conditions and vs. this poor Jacksonville secondary. The Browns earned a close 22-17 victory over Philly at home last time out, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. The pick: Mike Glennon gets the nod for the visitors, who will be eager to atone for a poor effort against the Steelers last weekend. Fortunately for Glennon he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to finally end here. The play is the over. This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Browns/Jaguars. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 47.5 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in off important victories. The Redskins have Alex Smith back under center and their run game has improved. They're going to have their hands full here with this revenge-minded Cowboys team which also enters off a crucial victory over Minnesota. The Cowboys offense behind Andy Dalton finally returned to form and I think that the Redskins are going to have a lot of trouble slowing down this balanced Cowboys attack that's out for revenge. Situationally speaking, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring "over." The picks: It's important to note as well that despite the Redskins lower-scoring win at home over Dallas earlier in the season, that eight of these team's last ten in the series have indeed gone "over" the number. Also note that it's gone "over" in these team's last five on this field. For all the reasons listed above, play the "over!" This is a 9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Washington/Dallas. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 50.5 | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling this year. The Texans are eseentially eliminated from playoff contention, but the Lions still have a shot. After getting blanked 20-0 by Carolina last week, I expect a much better effort from the Lions offense on the national stage on their home field. Houston only averages 78 yards per game on the ground, so its game-plan will be to let DeShaun Watson take over this game. Watson comes in off one of his strongest games, going for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a win over New England at home, their third win of the year. These are two teams hungry for a win and I expect that competition to translate into production on the field. The picks: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after Watson throws for two or more TD's in a win in its last outing, while Detroit has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 11 at home. This one has "shootout" written all over it! This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Houston/Detroit. |
|||||||
11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 148 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia desperately needs a win here after falling 27-21 to division rival New York last time out. CLeveland comes in off a 10-7 win over Houston last time out. While both teams do indeed come in off lower-scoring affairs, I fully expect both Carson Wentz of the Eagles and Baker Mayfield of the Browns to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Miles Sanders returned from injury for Philadelphia last weekend and he had 85 yards in a losing cause. This is big for Wentz's offense though. The picks: Mayfield also benefits from a healthy backfield, as both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are back and this is going to open up the play-action for the home side pivot. Totals were up across the league after the first five weeks, but they've since dropped back down considerably over the last few weekends. I think this one has dropped a little too low, as I look for these two non-conference playoff hopefuls to open up the playbook and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Eagles/Browns. |
|||||||
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | 49ers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 151 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side. The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia leads the NFC East at 3-4-1 and it comes out of its bye week rested and prepared to increase its lead in the division at the New York Giants, who moved to 2-7 in the division after last week's 23-20 win over the Washington Football team. Previous to their bye week, the Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. While both teams have played to a few lower-scoring games in a row, I believe today's contest finally sets up as more of a "shootout." Situationally it definitely appears to be a high-scoring game to me, as these two QB's will clearly be given the green light to take over this game. The first game between the clubs this year featured plenty of yardage, but not much scoring. Look for that trend to end here, as I expect these two hungry clubs to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle sounds. The picks: Note as well that the total has gone "over" the number in six of the Giants last eight at home anyways, while it's also gone "over" in seven of these teams last ten vs. each other. Look for this total to sneak "over" as it comes down the stretch. This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Philly/NY. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ravens are 5-2 and after this game they have contests vs. the Patriots, Titans and Steelers up next. The Colts on the other hand are tied with Tennessee for top spot in the AFC North after winning back to back games. Baltimore will be out to atone for last week's 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens will look to establish their run game today to try and alleviate a lot of the pressure of LaMar Jackson. The picks: Philip Rivers and the Colts face one of the best pass defenses they'll see all year, but Indianapolis also has a strong run game, led by Jordan Wilkins. The Colts are No. 5 against the pass and the Ravens are No. 2. With both teams looking to "run first," look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done! This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Colts. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 52 | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 147 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills. |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Patriots v. Bills OVER 43.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Buffalo will be out to run up the score here in my estimation. This is the first of two games between these heated rivals. The total has dropped quite a bit in this one due to bad weather, but that can in fact work both ways. I'm not reading too much into that as I look for both sides to push the pace from the outset. New England QB Cam Newton is out to redeem himself as well after a few poor performances. The Bills are off a win over the Jets 18-10, kicking five field goals for the victory. These two offenses have been stuck in neutral the last few weeks, but I believe that changes in this pivotal contest. The pick: Note as well that New England has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring seven or less points in a loss in its previous outing (lost 33-6 to San Fran), while Buffalo has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 after being held without an offensive TD in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it! This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Patriots/Bills. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns UNDER 55.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland. |
|||||||
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -112 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders. |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 55.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Cardinals only allow 20.4 PPG. This is a historically awful Cowboys defense, but that unit catches a bit of a break this week facing this more conservative Cardinals offense. The Cowboys though I think will have much difficulty in trying to replicate their offensive numbers moving forward without Dak Prescott under center. Andy Dalton doesn't have the stamina that his younger counterpart has, so I expect the veteran's performance to wane as the game goes on. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five games overall. Expect each offense to try and establish the run early and look for this total to stay "under" once it's all said and done. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Cowboys. |
|||||||
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans. |
|||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under! This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints. |
|||||||
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears. |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers. |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 50 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: This sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams were prepared to play on Sunday, but the Cam Newton covid scare delayed the contest. Now Cam is out and veteran backup Brian Hoyer will be asked to "manage" this contest. Expect the Pats to lean on their ground game in KC, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead dominating the carries (Pats are No. 1 in the league running the ball with 178 rushing yards per game.) The pick: KC is in zero threat of losing this game. After the Chiefs go up big early, look for them to take the foot off the gas, to run the clock and avoid serious injury. The Chiefs have allowed exactly 20 points in each of their first three games, but I have a hard time seeing Hoyer and company getting to that mark. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pats/Chiefs. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys UNDER 56.5 | 49-38 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: Neither team has looked great this year. Each has looked terrible defensively. However, I think that trend starts to change this week with this sky-high total. The pick: Dallas has also seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 15 after allowing 35 points or more in a road loss in its previous outing. Both team's defenses have severely under-performed this year, so expect that lop-sided trend to end here. This number is too high in my opinion. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Browns/Cowboys. |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 125 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will love nothing more than an opportunity to run up the score and destroy Cam Newton and the Patriots on Sunday night. New England looked "ok" in its home win over the Dolphins, but its patchwork defense is going to be in trouble tonight. That said, there's no question that Newton and the Patriots' offense will have their opportunties tonight as well. The pick: As note that the Hawks allowed 506 yards of offense to the Falcons last weekend and 25 points overall. Wilson had 322 yards passing and four TD's himself. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Pats/Hawks. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 49 | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: With Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford going head-to-head, some may think that this could be a very high-scoring affair, but I'm going to go the other way, as I expect these two division rivals to battle tough and I expect this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. Detroit looked great for three quarters vs. the Bears last week, before then collapsing and allowing 21 unanswered points. I don't think that's going to happen twice. The Lions offense wasn't great, posting 23 points as Stafford had 297 passing yards and one TD. And again, through three quarters the defense looked great, before the "brain fart" in the fourth. The pick: The Packers dominated in their win last week, posting 43 points. Rodgers had 364 yards passing and four TD's. Minnesota's defense looked out of sorts last week though and I think Rodgers and the home side offense will have a much more diffiuclt time moving the ball vs. this highly motivated and focused Lions team. This number is a tad high. This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lions/Packers. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46.5 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 283 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Packers offense, but "chemistry" is going to be an issue early on for both teams in my opinion. The Packers offense is a well oiled machine and I think it can calmly control the pace of this contest vs. the Vikings' defense, which has many new faces. Expect to see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for the home side, who had 1,135 yards and 13 TD's last year. The pick: Note that the "under" has hit in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 at home and in its last five at home vs. the Packers, while Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten overall dating back to last season. I expect a highly competitve football game, but one which falls well below the number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Packers/Vikings. |
|||||||
01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 152 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry. The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, a "chess match" instead of a "track meet." Note as well that Tennessee has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road dog, while KC has seen the total dip under in both games that it's played in after scoring 40 points or more in its last game. This number is too high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Titans/Chiefs. |
|||||||
01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 49 | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -107 | 172 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston advanced after beating the Bills 22-19 last weekend. The Texans looked down and out in that one early with a 16-0 deficit, but the team turned up the pressure on the defensive side and then Deshaun Watson and the offense managed to get the job done. Watson had 247 passing yards and one TD. Clearly the last thing the Texans can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with Patrick Mahomes and company. Note that Kansas City’s rush defense ranked sixth in the league over the last three games of the season, allowing 87 rush yards per game. KC's pass defense was also No. 8 overall in the NFL this season. The pick: It's supposed to be cold and windy today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game and also taking into account the improved play on the defensive end from each team, I think this afternoon's contest sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs. |
|||||||
01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Tom Brady and the Patriots have been terrible offensively over the last month or so, but they have a big opportunity to turn things around in the Wild Card. Do I think that Tennessee has a chance to steal this game in Foxborough? Of course I do, just look at what Miami did last weekend. The Patriots defense looks bad and so does it offense. The Titans won't be waiting for the home side to make the first mistake. They'll be looking to get an early score and then to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New England isn't going to win another Super Bowl either if it can't get its offense producing. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: But note as well that the Titans have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 as an underdog int he 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including in three of four this year,) while the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four following a SU home loss. Look for this total to creep over this low number sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Titans/Pats. |
|||||||
12-29-19 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-11 Miami Dolphins are at New England to take on the 12-3 Patriots. Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out to play spoiler here, so expect the visitors to open up the playbook from start to finish on offense (Fitzpatrick had four TD's in last week's 38-35 win over the Bengals.) The Patriots destroyed the Fish 43-0 in Week 2 and I believe that Tom Brady and company will be looking to end the season on a high-note as well. Brady has been shaky over the last month and the Pats just 4-3 SU their last seven. With one last chance for a tune-up, I think Brady puts on an exhibition today. The pick: Miami has seen the total go over in four of five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent already this season, while NE has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 14.5 to 21 points range. Considering the situational and trend based factors listed above, I absolutely believe that this number is low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Miami/New England. |
|||||||
12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 151 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards destroyed the Browns 38-24 last weekend, their first victory in months. Suffice it to say, I think they'll have a more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon in the frigid Pacific Northwest. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Kenyan Drake again here though as last weekend he rushed for 137 yards and four TD's vs. the Browns. With San Francisco's loss to Atlanta last weekend (although it managed the slim victory over the Rams), means that Seattle controls its own destiny in the NFC West. QB Russell Wilson has been the beneficiary of a strong run game this year and I expect the home side to control the ball/clock while on offense today as well. The pick: It works great from a situational stand point in my opinion, but also note that the Hawks have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten after scoring 30 points or more in their previous contest, while the Cards have seen the total go under in four of their last five off an upset win as an underdog. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Cards/Hawks. |
|||||||
12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 131 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimatley lower-scoring game between these NFC rivals on Saturday night. The 49ers have a playoff spot locked up, but they're coming off a poor perfomance/loss at home to the Falcons. LA has its back against the wall, needing to win out after it most recently got dominated on the road by the Cowboys. The strength of LA though has not been on the offensive side of the ball this season, with QB Jared Goff taking a major step back, but rather on the defensive end where the unit has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last eight games. San Francisco has been unbelievable this year, winning big in New Orleans, but also looking poor at other times. The defense is banged up, but I think that Jimmy Garropolo and company won't try to push the issue here, as they look to sit back and control this one in all three phases. Situationally in my opinion, it definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: But note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in three of four vs. division opponents already this year, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight following a home loss. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Rams/49ers UNDER. |
|||||||
12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 175 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts can keep their wild card hopes alive with an improbable upset win today. How will Indy pull that off? Certainly not by trying to keep pace with Drew Brees and the high-flying home side. The Colts have lost four of five, but they'll be laying everything on the line tonight in an effort to pull off the victory. The offense is still without dynamic WR T.Y. Hilton. Indy has to play to its strengths here, with plenty of running and short dump passes by Jacoby Brissett. Of course, the strength of the Colts still lies on the defensive end. The pick: The Saints threw everything they had at the 49ers last week, but New Orleans came up on the short end of a high-scoring shootout. New Orleans' defense was exposed by the 49ers, but clearly the unit catches a break today facing the Colts much more conservative offensive game-style. Note as well that Indy has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records and in six of its last seven after three or more consecutive losses, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in five of its last six after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This number is high. 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Colts/Saints. |
|||||||
12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers UNDER 37 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 151 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers. |
|||||||
12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 174 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
|||||||
12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 78 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears. |
|||||||
12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks. |
|||||||
12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans. |
|||||||
11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 85 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: Normally the Saints like to dominate teams by running them off the field with their fast paced offense, but I don't think they'll run up the score here on the short week. The Falcons have major issues across the board and New Orleans is going to be able to sit back and control this one and look for the host to make the first mistake. The Saints held on for a crucial 34-31 win over Carolina last weekend and they're in the drivers seat for the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Falcons are out of contention and come in off a 35-22 loss to the Bucs last weekend. The pick: Note that the Saints have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 17 after a home victory, while ATL has seen the total dip below in four of five at home already this season. On the short week and on Thanksgiving night, expect these defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons. |
|||||||
11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions OVER 38.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Chicago got the better of Detroit 23-16 last year. You'll often hear players that have to play on Thanksgiving that they "take it differently" or it means more etc. Despite their win/loss record of just 3-7, the Lions have a chance to knock the Bears out of playoff contention with a victory today. Detroit's also out to avenge a 23-16 loss last November and a 20-13 road setback in Chicago on November 10th. The Bears clearly won't be going down without a fight after they clawed their way to an ugly 19-14 win over the Giants at home last weekend. The pick: Whether the Lions go with Jeff Driskell or David Blough, the game-plan will be the same; throw the ball early and often. The Lions rely on their passing game to generate offense, averaging 289.5 receiving yards per game. There doesn't have to be much scoring for this total to over the number. The Bears' Trubisky has already beaten Detroit this year and I think he also pushes the pace. This one has "over" written all over it. 8* play on the OVER Bears/Lions. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Last year the Eagles needed to run the table near the end of the season to even make the playoffs and after a terrible start this season, that's the case again in 2019/20. The Pats though come in off their bye week and ready to take out their frurstrations after falling 37-20 to the Ravens two weeks ago. The Eagles though continue to defy the odds and they enter playing their best ball of the season after two straight victories. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: But note that the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four after their bye-week as well, while Philly has seen the total soar over in three of four as an underdog already this year. When taking into account the situational and trend based factors listed above, I'm expecting this one to fly over the number soon, rather than later. 8* play on the Pats/Eagles OVER. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 50.5 | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Atlanta inexplicably beat the Saints 26-9 last week. QB Matt Ryan is suiting up today for the Falcons and I don't think that's going to do the offense any favors. Both teams will be fighting for a victory here, but what was most impressive last week for ATL was clearly its defensive play. The pick: The Panthers appeared to have gotten things figured out with rookie QB Kyle Allen, but the team has come back down to Earth of late, winning one of their last three and getting outscored 95-59 in the process. Carolina has to double down on the defensive side of the ball today and the unit does catch a break facing the Falcons "on again, off again" offense. Note that ATL has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in seven of its last tne vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad high. 8* play on the Falcons/Panthers under. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Broncos v. Vikings OVER 38.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Broncos beat the Browns at home and then had their bye-week off to prepare for this one. Broncos' QB Brandon Allen has a golden opportunity for the rest of the season to try and get his own personal stock to rise and with nothing to lose here, I think the visitors "open up the playbook" this afternoon. The pick: The Vikes are known for their hard-nosed defense, but it's been the offense which is mainly responsible for Minnesota's surge over the last few weeks. Cousins most recently went for 220 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Cowboys. I think Denver pushes the pace and I expect the Vikes' progression to continue here as well. This number is just a tad low. 8* play on Broncos/Vikes OVER. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two of the best teams in the AFC collide in this one and while each possesses a unique and explosive signal caller under center, I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Baltimore has a string of tough games upcoming and I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The Texans come in out of their bye, but clearly the game plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson's hands as much as possible. Overall Houston allows just 21 PPG. The pick: The Ravens' defense is also underrated, conceding only 21 PPG themselves. Houston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 15 after a win by 21 points or more, while Baltimore has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven off a win vs. a division rival. Expect these two hungry sides to battle to lower-scoring under once it's all said and done. 8* play on the UNDER Texans/Ravens. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 52 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under. 10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER. |
|||||||
11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -107 | 85 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both teams. Cleveland picked up a win over the Bills last Sunday to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Another victory here on Thursday night vs. a red hot Steelers team which has won four straight will be paramount in keeping that dream alive. Pittsburgh has won four straight. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board and each has been carried by its defensive play to this point. But I think the narrative on that will change tonight on the short week. The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game (including 2-0 this year), while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in four of its last five following a home victory. So far these starting QB's have been terrible this year, but each will be given the green light to operate tonight. I think this number is just a little low. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Steelers/Browns. |
|||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: These are the top two teams in the NFC West. They're quite possibly the best two teams in the entire NFC overall as well. The 49ers are undefeated at 8-0, while Seattle is 7-2. Last week San Francisco's vaunted defense looked pretty ordinary in the 49ers closer than expected 28-25 victory in Arizona. Now the 49ers have to contend with another mobile QB, except this one is putting up MVP numbers and has a ton of experience. The Hawks aren't going to sit back and wait for San Francisco to make a mistake, they'll be going after San Fran's defense again at every opportunity. The pick: Wilson has 22 TD's and just one INT so far, so San Fran's defense isn't going to get too many opportunities anyways. I think from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly nine of its last 11 after a win by six points or less, while San Fran has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Hawks/49ers. |
|||||||
11-10-19 | Panthers v. Packers OVER 47.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -104 | 147 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: Carolina is 5-3 and the Packers are 7-2. Carolina has won five of six since Cam Newton got injured and Kyle Allen took over. Panthers' RB Christian McCaffrey is having an unreal season and he led the charge in an impressive victory over the Titans last weekend. The Packers will have to keep pace with their surging visiting side and Aaron Rodgers and company certainly won't be lacking for motitavtion after laying an egg in San Diego last weekend. The pick: Rogers has 17 TD's and just two INT's this season. That includes having three straight games with multiple TD's and not INT's. Kyle Allen did not look good in the game on the road vs. San Francisco, and clearly Lambeau is going to be a difficult task for the rookie as well. These offensive units are "firing on all cylinders" and I expect them to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over. 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the over Panthers/Packers. |
|||||||
11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs UNDER 53 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards are off a tough 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, while Tampa Bay lost a heart-braker in a 40-34 OT setback vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. While each club comes in off a high-scoring loss in its last action, I believe the stage is set for much more of a defensive affair in this one. Arizona is in third in the NFC West, but it's still won three of its last five games. The season is on the line here for the Cards essentially this weekend. Note that Cards' QB Kyler Murray has 2,229 passing yards with nine TD's and four INT's, while also posting 313 rushing yards. Also note that Murray has suffered 29 sacks. The pick: Tampa's lost four in a row and it hasn't won a game at home all year. Head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive minded coach and clearly he's not going to be happy coming into this one. Arians won't go down quietly though. Tampa QB Jameis Winston has 2,407 passing yards with 16 TD's and ten INT's. Winston has suffered 30 sacks this year. Look for the home side intstead to lean heavily on RB's Peyton Barber (277 yards, three TD's) and Ronald Jones Jr (381, three TD's), while on offense. Finally note that Arizona has already seen the total go under the number in three of its four games on the road this year, while TB has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Bucs. |
|||||||
11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 47 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both of these hungry AFC sides. The Chargers are 4-5 and the Raiders are 4-4. Funnily enough, the Chargers could be heading to London next year, while the Raiders are on their way to Vegas. LA though is coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and with its season essentially on the line, it's safe to say that Philip Rivers and company won't be "sitting back" and waiting for the home side to make a mistake. Melvin Gordon missed the first few games because of a contract dispute for LA, but the big RB is now finally back into "game shape" and it's opened things up considerably for Rivers to properly operate. The pick: The Raiders' defense is injured and it gave up more than 400 yards and three TD's to the Lions in their latest outing. Note that Oakland has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. DeShaun Watson torched the Raiders' secondary and it gave up six TD's to Aaron Rodgers the week before that. Derek Carr is also going to be given the "green light" to air things out as Oakland's offense will once again have to carry the load this week. I think these two gun-slinging QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Chargers/Raiders. |
|||||||
11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 128 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here. 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens. |
|||||||
11-03-19 | Titans v. Panthers OVER 41 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a "make or break" game for both teams in many respects. The Titans are 4-4 and the Panthers are 4-3. The Panthers were on a four-game win streak until last week's 51-13 setback to San Francisco. Tennessee enters off a 27-23 win over Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill was 21 of 33 for 193 yards and three TD's for the Titans last weekend. Panthers' QB Kyle Allen has filled in admirably for Cam Newton, entering with a 4-1 record and I think these two hungry QB's lay everything on the line today for their teams as they get out to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: Tennessee has seen the total go over in its last four as a road dog of seven points or less, while Carolina has seen the total soar over in nine 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low. 8* pick on the OVER Titans/Panthers. |
|||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers. |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 154 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under. 10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs. |
|||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 44 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets. |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Ravens v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks. |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 38 | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos. |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns UNDER 47.5 | 32-28 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cleveland fell flat on Monday Night Football in San Francisco, but it still has a very genuine shot at competing for the division crown if it can string a few wins together. First things first is Seattle, which comes off a thrilling victory over the Rams at home. Seattle's weakness the last few years has been its play on the road and while the victory over LA looks impressive on paper, the Rams have looked plain terrible this season. This is a trap game for Seattle and it has to be careful to not look past its hungry opponent. The pick: Baker Mayfield and the Browns are better team when they run the ball and try to control things while on offense. It's when they're playing from behind or trying to be too fancy that the Browns struggle. I expect a very conservative style of play from the home side today as it looks to once again limit its stupid mistakes. Note that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 13 as a home dog. This number is high, play the under. 8* play on the under Hawks/Browns. |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | 37-26 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: A trip across the pond is going to lead to a lower-scoring under in this one. This is the second meeting of the season between the divisional foes and in the first one the Bucs won a low-scoring 20-14 affair. Tampa comes in off a loss to New Orleans by a score of 31-24, while the Panthers have won three in a row since losing to the Bucs. The Panthers have been getting exceptional play from QB Kyle Allen, but I think the rookie will be more effected by anyone on this trip to London. Look for Carolina to once again lean heavily on RB Christian McCaffrey, who in fact leads the league right now with 587 rushing yards and 31 catches for 279 yards. Also note that the Panthers have been great defensively since the loss to Tampa, posting 16 sackes over their last three games. The pick: Tampa's pass defense has been terrible, which was completely evident in last week's loss to the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater. The Bucs though do rank second against the run, a unit which is clearly going to be tested early and often today by McCaffrey. The Panthers only average 264 yards per game through the air, so Tampa's porous secondary catches a break today. When you add up all of the above factors, the savvy call in this one is on the under in my opinion. 8* play on the under Panthers/Bucs. |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 156 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs. |
|||||||
10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks. |
|||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers. |
|||||||
09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 49 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -115 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams. |
|||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary. The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins. |
|||||||
09-22-19 | Bengals v. Bills OVER 42 | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 148 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low. 8* play on the over Bengals/Bills. |
|||||||
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards. The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings. |
|||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags. |
|||||||
09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders. |
|||||||
09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs. The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under. |
|||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under. Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play |
|||||||
01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 43 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Colts v. Titans OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 54.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers OVER 50 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -111 | 60 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: This total has dropped since opening and I think the value has definitely now swung to the over. Two teams which hate each other collide on Monday night and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair than a lower-scoring battle. The Saints are 11-2 and are now in top spot in the NFC after LA lost to the Bears last week. New Orleans owns the tie-breaker against the Rams and with a chance to further cement, I expect veteran Drew Brees to be “on point” tonight. And as one of 6-7 teams, Carolina is only one-half game back of the Vikings for the second wild-card berth, so the home side still has everything to play for here as well. From a “situational” stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up a shootout. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 13 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 50 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a low, play the “over.” 10* |
|||||||
12-16-18 | Redskins v. Jaguars OVER 36 | 16-13 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: If these two teams could be given a “do over” for the 2018/19 season, clearly each of them would take it. These clubs have struggled at times to put points on the board, but I think the overall conditions point to more of a “shootout” in this one finally. Washington comes in off a humbling 40-16 loss to the Giants and it’ll be eager to reverse its fortunes here. Josh Johnson is the QB in Washington now as he took over for Mark Sanchez last weekend and threw for 200 yards and a TD. The Jags are just 4-9 and while they were blown out by Tennessee last weekend, QB Cody Kessler was a bright spot with 250 yards and a TD. The pick: Both teams will be opening up the playbook, so from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but the Skins have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last 12 as a road underdog, while the Jags have seen the total go “over” in seven of its last 11 non-conference games. This number is low, play the “over.” 8* play |
|||||||
12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both NFC playoff hopefuls. The Vikes are in rebound mode after falling 24-10 in New England last weekend, while the Hawks are rolling now, most recently destroying the 49ers 43-16. The Vikes average 22.9 PPG and they allow 22.5. Note though that Kirk Cousins has the Vikes’ offense ranked sixth in the league with 276.3 YPG. The Seahawks are averaging 26.6 PPG behind the league’s No. 1 rushing offense. The defense is allowing 21.6 PPG. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the number in four of six on the road this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Rams v. Bears UNDER 52 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams posted a tough 30-16 road win in Detroit last weekend they’ll have their hands full again this week on Sunday night at Soldier Field. Chicago is out to atone for a 30-27 OT loss to New York last weekend, so from a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, where field position and time of possession are key to victory. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six on the road already this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten as a home dog. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* |
|||||||
12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The winner of this divisional contest will remain on the fringes of the wild card spot, while the other will officially be eliminated from contention. With so much on the line, I’m expecting each side to open up the playbook The Redskins lost starting QB Alex Smith to injury and Colt McCoy was unable to to lead Washington to a win on Thanksgiving Day, eventually falling 31-23 to the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s stagnant offense will have its opportunities today against a Redskins unit which allowed Dallas to score three of its four TD’s by covering at least 16 yards. The Eagles kept their slim hopes alive in last week’s come from behind 25-22 win over the Giants and I think they carry that confidence and momentum over here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the numb run eight of its last 11 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 vs. the division. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots OVER 49.5 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Vikes remain in the NFC playoff picture after last weeks win over the Packers. Kirk Cousins had a big game with 342 passing yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran carries that momentum over here. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.1 points and allowing 22.1. New England is averaging 27.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. The Pats are getting healthier and I think they’ll put the foot on the gas from start to finish. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the total in four of five on the road already this year, while the Patriots have seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: For all intents and purposes, this is a “must win” game for both teams. The Packers are just 4-5 and they’ve lost three of their last four after a terrible loss to Seattle last weekend. The only hope Green Bay has is with QB Aaron Rodgers, so expect the visitors air it out early and often. The Vikes come in off a brutal loss to the Bears last weekend and they’ll also be hungry to reverse their recent offensive struggles with a break out performance. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight “dome” games, while Minnesota has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 96 h 45 m | Show | |
Analysis posted shortly! |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 60 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Atlanta can’t sit back and hope for the Saints to make the first mistake today. The Falcons’ season has been de-railed by injury, but veteran QB Matt Ryan will be given the green light to air the ball out early and often. The Saints only need two more victories to earn a first round bye. Clearly Drew Brees is going to have the foot on the gas here from start to finish this weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after two or more SU losses, while New Orleans has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 22 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 48 | 10-38 | Push | 0 | 144 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in on win streaks, but in this important divisional battle, I’m expecting more of a defensive affair. The Titans enter off a confidence building 34-10 rout of the Patriots, looking very impressive defensively. The Colts have won three straight, but I think Luck and company will have their hands full with this under-the-radar Titans’ defense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four “dome” games, while Indianapolis has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 49.5. This number is high, play the “under.” 8* play |
|||||||
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 49 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show |
The play: For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for both teams. Green Bay kept its hopes alive with a 31-12 home win last weekend, while Seattle came up just short in a 36-31 setback to the Rams on Sunday. The Packers won’t be just sitting back on their heels and looking for the Hawks to make the first mistake. Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this year and it’ll have to do what it does best and that’s give the ball to QB Aaron Rodgers and let him go to work. The Hawks looked terrible defensive last week against the “gun-slinging” Rams’ QB and I think the defense is going to have its hands full here as well. The pick: Note that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” in five of six against conference opponents this year and in its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly these are two teams that would take a “mulligan” on the season if given the chance. The Giants come out of their bye week looking to avoid a 1-8 start, while the 49ers enter at 2-7. San Francisco won’t be going down quietly either, it enter off a confidence building 34-3 win over Oakland. Each team has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and up and down the line, but from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as a “shoot-out.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in its last two following its bye week, while San Fran has seen the total go over in five of its last eight as a favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns UNDER 51 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 142 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Falcons opened 1-4, but they’ve since clawed their way back to a 4-4 record with four straight wins. Last week ATL won 36-14 in Washington. Matt Ryan and company have been playing at an extremely high level for weeks now and winning on the road is never easy. This does indeed set up as a letdown spot for the Falcons finally. Thankfully the ATL defense faces a Browns offense averaging only 20.7 PPG. Cleveland’s been decent defensively this season and that the last thing the home side can do is to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the high-flying Falcons. The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of its last ten home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to seven points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys UNDER 40 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee lost 20-19 in England in its final game before its bye, while Dallas fell 20-17 in Washington in Week 7. Both teams need a win and I think each will be looking to establish the run from the “get go.” As a result, expect this total to sneak under the number at the end of the night. The pick: Both teams feature a couple of QB’s who are better at “managing” the game, than “blowing it wide open.” They also feature two very strong RB’s in the Titans’ Derrick Henry and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six already this year as an underdog, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in six of its last nine non-conference games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 90 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week. The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
|||||||
11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now. The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under. |