Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-24 | Utah v. Indiana State -2.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Indiana State has a far superior record and is the better team here. Inside or outside their conference, the Sycamores have handled their business. The Sycamores were 19-4 against Missouri Valley Conference opponents and 12-2 in non-conference play. Utah was only 10-12 within its conference. The Pac-12 has some good teams but so does the Missouri Valley. The level of competition doesn't account for such a large discrepancy in records! The Utes are 0-3 versus the spread their last 3 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They were only 4-7 ATS as underdogs this season. They won only 5 of their 12 road games. The Sycamores are 20-11 ATS as favorites. They are 30-14 ATS their last 44 tries after scoring 80 or more. Lay the small number! |
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03-31-24 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Zach Edey is a different kind of player. He changes the game. You have to worry about him when you're on both offense and on defense. Worry too much about him on offense and he'll mess up your shot, if he hasn't blocked it. Worry too much about him on defense and he'll kick it out to Purdue's capable 3-point shooters. So far, that formula has worked for the Boilermakers. That was before they had to contend with the Tennessee Volunteers! Purdue hasn't faced a defense like this one in this tournament. Tennessee allowed 49 and 58 points its first 2 games! Excellent on both sides of the ball, the Volunteers are peaking at exactly the right time. They got a taste of Purdue in the Maui Invitational. The Boilermakers pulled away late for a 4-point win. The experience of having faced Edey once will help Tennessee in Sunday's rematch. The Volunteers know what he's all about. They know they could have won that game. They know that they've improved since then. The Boilermakers average more than 80 points a game but the Volunteers are 7-1 their last 8 tries versus the spread against teams which average 77 or more per game. Grab the points! |
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03-30-24 | Illinois +9 v. Connecticut | 52-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Huskies have been impressive but this is the game they finally get tested and this is way too many points. The Illini have also impressed. The stats aren't that far enough. Not far enough to warrant such a big number. The Huskies did win a few more games and they do allow fewer points. The Illini played in a tougher conference though and they also score more points. Its important to recognize that NONE of Illinois' 8 losses has been by more than 9 points. The Illini do not get blown out. They're 7-0 their last 7 games, 10-1 their last 11. The only loss was by 6 against Purdue. With a 6-1 ATS record, as an underdog, grab the points with Illinois! |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | Top | 54-51 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
Houston versus Duke. In the past, you'd expect the Blue Devils to be favored over the Cougars. Those days are over. The Cougars are the better team, as they were last year. Duke still carries the name and the tradition though and that has helped in preventing this line from being even higher. The Cougars are 12-7-1 against the spread in 20 tries with 3 or more days rest. The Cougars only allow 57.7 points a game. Their defense is for real. The Cougars are 10-2 versus the spread their last 12 tries, a perfect 12-0 straight up, in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5. The Blue Devils are only 2-5 versus the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog. They found themselves in that role twice this season and went 0-2 ATS with losses against Wake Forest and UNC. This is the end of the road for the Blue Devils! |
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03-27-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Norfolk State +1.5 | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
So, we've got 2 teams with essentially equal records (Norfolk State is 23-11 and IPFW is 23-12) and one of them is playing at home. But the other is favored. Hmmm. What's the deal? The biggest reason for this is that the Horizon League is considered to be (and is) stronger. That doesn't make the Mastodons better on the road than the Spartans are at home. Ipfw is a solid 12-7 on the road but Norfolk State is a perfect 14-0 at home! If we go back to the beginning of the season, Norfolk State was projected to be near the top of the MEAC. IPFW was expected to be near the bottom of the Horizon. The Mastodons didn't return a single starter from last season. They should be commended for having the season which they've accomplished but it will end with a loss. The Spartans outscore teams by a 84.5 to 62.6 point margin at home. That cannot be ignored. Make it 15-0 after tonight! |
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03-26-24 | Fairfield v. Seattle University -7 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Seattle was 9-3 versus the spread in non-conference action. Having beaten Grand Canyon during the season, the Redbirds know that they can beat this Fairfield team. The Stags are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tournament games and the Redbirds are 5-1 versus the spread. The Redbirds are the stronger team but they also have a scheduling advantage. They play 2 games in 2 days but the Stags are playing 3 games in 3 days. That extra Sunday game played by Fairfield, as opposed to Seattle playing on Saturday, will be a factor. Lay the points with the Redbirds! |
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03-25-24 | Montana +3 v. Arkansas State | 61-74 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
My CakeWalk selections are usually reserved for favorites which I expect to win with ease. They don't have to be though. When I am getting points with an underdog which I expect to win outright, as I am here, I can occasionally use that title. Here, we've got a Montana team which won 24 games. Arkansas State won 19. Both teams score roughly the same number of points but Montana allows a lot less. Though the points aren't likely to come into play, both teams did see their last game decided by 2 or less. Montana won by 1 and Arkansas State won by 2. If this turns out to be another game decided on the final possession, I'd rather be getting points than laying in them. The Grizzlies are 10-3 straight up (9-4 versus the spread) their last 13 tries when playing with 1 days rest or less. They are 25-11 SU their last 36 tries. Let's go Grizzlies! |
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03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The San Diego State Aztecs are an experienced team which made a deep run in this tournament. They have the type of team suited to winning at this time of the year. The Yale Bulldogs were fortunate to win the Ivy League Finals. Then, they pulled off a first round upset over Auburn. That was a big win but they won't duplicate it tonight. The Aztecs will dial up the defensive intensity and low-scoring games don't really suit Colorado. The Buffaloes are just 1-3 versus the spread their past 4 when the total was 120 to 129.5. San Diego State is a perfect 5-0 ATS its past five tries, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Aztecs caught a break by getting Yale and they will take advantage of it! |
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03-24-24 | Northwestern v. Connecticut -14 | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
The top teams in the Big East are right there among the best and it starts with UConn. The defending champions are taking no prisoners this year. They have scored over 90 points in 2 of their past 3 games. Northwestern won't be able to keep up! Playing on a neutral court must feel like playing at home for the Huskies. They are 7-1 versus the spread (8-0 SU) their past 8 games on a neutral court. They are 20-6 ATS their last 26. They are now 7-1 ATS their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Some team will test them but Northwestern won't be the one to do it. Lay the points! |
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03-24-24 | Colorado v. Marquette -3.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
In case you've haven't noticed, the Big 3 in the Big East are all special teams. The Huskies are the defending champs and didn't miss a beat this year. Arizona can compete with the top 3 in the Big East but the other Pac-12 teams cannot. We saw Creighton dismantle Pac-12 Tournament Champion Oregon last night. Marquette is another special Big East team which has the potential to go a long way. The Buffaloes are 2-4 versus the spread as an underdog. The Golden Eagles are 17-9 versus the spread as a favorite. Lay the points! |
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03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
A small line is offering excellent value with the Big 12 team. The Mountain West is a solid conference but the Big 12 is stacked. The Horned Frogs have wins over teams like Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, K-State Cincinnati and Oklahoma. They were within a bucket of beating Kansas, and Iowa State. In fact, there were numerous very close losses. This team is better than its record! The Horned Frogs are 21-9 versus the spread their last 30 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. The only time that they played with 7 or more days rest in between games resulted in an easy cover, a 77-42 blowout. The Frogs were 14-10 versus the spread as favorites, 3-1 ATS as road favorites. TCU is 7-1 straight up its last 8 against Mountain West teams. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS as underdogs and 0-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Lay the small number! |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern +4 v. Florida Atlantic | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Too many points between two equal teams in a game which will be close. The Wildcats are 4-0 versus the spread their last 4 NCAA tournament games. The Owls are 3-7 versus the spread their last 10 tries as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats are also 6-2 versus the spread their last 8 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Northwestern has 8 losses since getting blown out on January 2nd. All 8 losses came by single digits. During that time they have beaten teams like Illinois and Michigan State. They know that they can beat this Florida Atlantic team. Grab the points. |
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03-21-24 | Oakland v. Kentucky -13.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Oakland will be outclassed. Kentucky has disappointed in recent tournaments and will be ready to run up the score. It doesn't matter that the coaches are friends. The Wildcats were 8-5 versus the spread against non-conference opponents and they outscored them by an average of 16 points a game. The Wildcats are 12-2 versus the spread their last 14 tries as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. Oakland was great with no rest but not so good with lots of it. The Golden Grizzlies are 0-3 versus the spread the last 3 times that they played with 7 or more days rest and 2-6 ATS their last 8 tries in that situation. Lay the points! |
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03-21-24 | Michigan State v. Mississippi State +1.5 | 69-51 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 30 m | Show | |
We get a good one right out of the gate: SEC taking on the Big Ten. 8 versus 9. Tom Izzo is a legend but Chris Jans is also a winner. I give the edge to the Bulldogs on the floor. Playing the game at Spectrum Center in Charlotte shouldn't bother the Bulldogs. Did you know that Mississippi State is 9-0 when playing on a neutral court? The only loss came versus Auburn and the Bulldogs were playing their 3rd game in 3 days. The Bulldogs did beat Auburn earlier. They also beat Tennessee twice this year. When facing a Big Ten opponent, they thumped Northwestern. The Spartans split with NW but were outscored by 10 points in the two games combined. Let's go Bulldogs! |
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03-20-24 | UNLV v. Princeton -2.5 | Top | 84-77 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
Getting to play this game in Jadwin Gymnasium is a big advantage for Princeton. The Tigers were undefeated on their home floor this season. In going 12-0, they outscored visiting teams by an average of 16.8 points. UNLV had some big wins but came up short when it mattered. The Rebels are a long way from home and aren't going to be as motivated as the Tigers. The Tigers score more points and they allow less. That's not all from the Ivy League schedule either. The Rebels are only 2-5 versus the spread in 7 tries in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5. The Tigers are 6-3 ATS in nine tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the small number! |
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03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Not much separates these teams and I'm happy to grab the points being offered. Wagner was 9-7 versus the spread as an underdog. Howard was just 7-11 versus the spread as a favorite. The Seahawks don't score many points but they don't allow many either. Those type of teams give the Bison trouble. Howard is 1-4 ATS their last 5 tries versus poor offensive teams - scoring |
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03-17-24 | Brown v. Yale -7.5 | 61-62 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs have gotten their act together just in time. They dominated Cornell yesterday and they will have their way with Brown this afternoon. This is the best team in the Ivy League and that will be on full display this afternoon. Brown beat them at home less than a week ago but Yale is 4-1 versus the spread, 5-0 straight up the past 5 tries, when avenging a home loss. The Bulldogs are also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their past 6 tries, as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Yale is still 9-1 the past 10 meetings, even after last week's loss. The Bears' run comes to an end today. Yale by double-digits! |
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03-16-24 | Long Beach State +2.5 v. UC-Davis | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
UC Davis might own the better record here. But, we all know that it’s March. The Beach are fighting to get revenge after losing to the Aggies just a week ago today. These two teams split the season series and that doesn’t surprise me. Long Beach State was able to knock off the top team during the regular season in UC Irvine in their last game and are now getting the respect that they deserve. Long Beach State is 5-1 versus the spread in its last 6 conference tournament games. Cal Davis is 3-8-1 ATS its last 12 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Marcus Tsohonis is someone to keep an eye on. The pace of LBSU should be enough to cause problems for UC Davis and let the 49ers into the big dance for the first time since 2012. |
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03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -2.5 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Nice win for the Wolfpack yesterday. Any time you knock out Duke, its a good day! They are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries off an ATS victory though and now they will face a dominant defensive team. They are 1-4 straight up the past 5 times versus good defensive teams - allowing |
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03-15-24 | Michigan State v. Purdue -5.5 | 62-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
Its never wise to underestimate a Tom Izzo coached team. Sometimes, great coaching isn't enough. The Spartans simply have no answer for Zach Edey. He's dominated them and there's little reason to expect anything different on Friday morning. Edey scored 32 points, while adding 11 rebounds in the game a couple of weeks ago. Last season, Edey averaged 35 points against the Spartans. If Izzo's Spartans go all out to contain Edey, it'll leave them vulnerable to Purdue's outsider shooters. This will be the first time that the Spartans have played 2 games in 2 days all season. The Boilermakers are 11-7-1 versus the spread with 3 or more day's rest and they are 5-0 straight up and ATS (or 4-0-1) when on a neutral court with wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. The line is low. Lay the points with Edey and the Boilermakers. |
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03-14-24 | Georgia v. Florida -8 | 80-85 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Georgia got a fortunate first round matchup against Missouri. The Tigers hadn't won a game in months. This is a big step up in class though and the Bulldogs will be exposed by a stronger Florida team tonight. The Gators won both regular season meetings. Prior to yesterday, the Bulldogs were 0-3 straight up and versus the spread in neutral site games. Some teams are used to doing so but this will be the first time this season that they played with 0 days rest. When off a loss, as the Gators are, they outscored teams by an average score of 83.8 to 73.4. They'll beat the Bulldogs by at least that many tonight! |
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03-14-24 | Villanova +4.5 v. Marquette | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Who in their right mind would back Villanova after the Wildcats only beat Depaul by 1 point? Call me crazy and count me in. Yesterday's result was great. It's keeping people off the Wildcats today and that is leading to extra points on the line. With Marquette's best player Tyler Kolek out, and with Nova needing the win more than the Golden Eagles, this is a lot of points. They could come in handy, as Villanova has had some close ones. Yesterday's 1-point game was preceded by a 2-point loss versus Creighton, a game Villanova was down big and showed heart in rallying. Remember the 1-point game versus UConn? A win today and the Cats could start feeling a lot better about their NCAA Tournament hopes. Marquette already knows it'll be there. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 versus the spread on a neutral floor. The Wildcats have thrived in their neutral court games including victories over UNC, Texas Tech and Memphis. They are 2-0 both straight up and versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. Give me the points! |
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03-14-24 | Kent State +6.5 v. Toledo | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
These teams are closer in talent than the point spread is telling us. They were the two best in the conference last season. The Golden Flashes were favored for the game at Kent State and the Rockets are laying nearly as many today as they were for the game at Toledo. The Flashes are 10-4 versus the spread their last 14 tries on a neutral court. Toledo won the regular season title last year but Kent State won the MAC Conference Tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Flashes are 5-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 6 games in this tournament. They are coming in confident. The Rockets are only 6-10 versus the spread their last 16 tournament games. Give me the points! |
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03-13-24 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Gauchos weren't that good against the spread this season. They were good to me when I supported them though. I won my Big West Game Of The Year on them way back in the middle of January. I was high on them then and I still them. I also won with the Gauchos last March 11th, my Big West Tourney Game Of the Year from last year. They were laying a similar number that day that they are today and they won by 10. The Gauchos have been excellent as short neutral court favorites the past couple of years. In all neutral site games they were 6-3 versus the spread. The Matadors have won just 1 of their last 10 first round tournament games, going 3-7 versus the spread. The Gauchos went to the NCAA Tournament last year. They won't be stopped tonight. |
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03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Arkansas' disappointing regular season has provided us with great value in the opening round. Vastly superior to Vanderbilt talent-wise, at least in my opinion, the Razorbacks somehow got upset by the Commodores at home, in late February. They were favored by double-digits! That was a low point and now is a chance to start making things right. The Razorbacks are 5-1-1 versus the spread their last 7 tries, when revenging a home loss. They are a respectable 8-6 ATS their last 14 tries against losing teams but 13-1 SU in those games. The loss was the Vanderbilt game. The majority of those spreads were a lot higher than this one. Looking for its revenge, Arkansas will move to 14-1 its last 15 tries against losing teams and will cover the small number for us in the process! |
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03-13-24 | Coppin State v. Norfolk State -14.5 | 51-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
If this was truly a neutral site game, the Eagles might be able to keep it close. Coppin State can't be very happy to have to play the Spartans at Norfolk Scope Arena though. The Eagles were 0-17 on the road this season and they were outscored 75.5 to 55.1 in those games. The Spartans were 13-0 at home and they outscored teams by an average of 84.8 to 62.3. The Spartans played a number of tough non-conference road games (like Tennessee) to get them ready for the postseason. They won at places like Illinois State and VCU and will have no trouble with over-matched Coppin State. |
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03-12-24 | Denver v. South Dakota State -9.5 | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
The Jackrabbits get a dream matchup and will punch their ticket to the Big Dance tonight. They beat an arguably better team by 10 last night and should win by even more than that tonight. After all, they're off 5 straight wins by 10 or more. When they met earlier in the season, the Jackrabbits had yet to really hit their stride but when these teams met 3 weeks ago, the Jackrabbits won by 27 points. They've owned the Pioneers for years, the January loss at Denver was an anolmy. Remember that Denver was the #7 seed and had more losses than wins in regular season. South Dakota State will win this one in a "Cake-Walk!" |
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03-12-24 | Bryant v. UMass Lowell -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The River Hawks lost to Vermont in the America East Championship game last year. They want another crack at the Catamounts this year. A win here should earn them that opportunity as Vermont is a 13 point home favorite versus New Hampshire. Playing this game on their home floor is a major advantage for U Mass Lowell. The Bulldogs are strong at home but below .500 on the road. The River Hawks are 4-0 both straight up and versus the spread in four meetings since last season. They beat them by 22 here a few weeks ago after winning by 9 at Bryant the previous week. Bring on Vermont! |
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03-12-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -1 | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
The Fighting Irish aren't a great team but its my belief that they're currently better than Georgia Tech. Both regular season meetings were close but the Irish found a way to win each of them. That will give them confidence for this afternoon's big game. Notre Dame lost a lot from last season and that meant going through some early growing pains. The talent is there though and they got better. The Irish are 5-3 their past 8 games and all 3 losses were at tough road venues. They've been their best within the conference, going 13-7 versus the spread. Losing senior Lance Terry early on the season didn't help the Yellow Jackets. Their season ends today. |
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03-12-24 | Davidson v. Fordham +4 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
The Wildcats may have a better record and a higher seed but they shouldn't be laying points against anyone right now. Since these teams last met, Davidson has lost 5 straight games. The Rams are also off 3 straight losses but the last 2 have been competitive, including a 2-point road loss at 20-win UMass. Before that, the Rams had beaten George Mason and blew out Duquesne. Davidson's last 2 losses came by 18 and 10 points. It could be close so I will happily take points but I feel that the Rams are playing better basketball right now and I expect them to come through with the outright victory! |
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03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
I won with Weber State as my 2023 Big Sky Conference Tourney GOY. The Wildcats led from wire-to-wire in their quarterfinal victory over Sacramento State. The Wildcats brought back a ton of experience and depth from that team, including unanimous First Team All-Conference performer Dillon Jones. Jones had 18 points (plus 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals) in last year's GOY win. Jones is even more dominant this season. He averages more than 20 points and more than 10 rebounds. He's scored more than 20 points in 3 straight games and at least 17 points in each of his past 12. Heavily favored to win this conference before the season started, Jones and the Wildcats know that their time is now. They lost to the Bobcats to close out the regular season but will avenge that loss with a big win "when it counts" on Monday. |
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03-10-24 | Texas State v. James Madison -10.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
James Madison is in a class of its own in the Sun Belt and will prove it again this evening. The Dukes are 28-3 and they haven't lost since January. They beat Texas State by 17 in the lone regular season meeting. A dominant team, the Dukes also have the schedule in their favor. Both teams played yesterday. Its not surprising that JMU had an easier time with Marshall than Texas State had with Troy. Not only did the Bobcats have to battle harder yesterday but they also will already be playing their 4th game in this tournament, the first of which went to Overtime. It will catch up them against a superior opponent which had a double-bye and will be playing just its second game of the tourney. Lay the points! |
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03-10-24 | Lehigh v. Boston University +1.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
I always enjoy getting points with a team which I expect to win outright! Though its unlikely that such a small point spread will come into play, when considering how close the regular season meetings were, its far from impossible. Those scores were 72-71 and 64-62, in Overtime. The Terriers won both games! You'll hear people say that its hard to beat a team 3 times. Guess what? It happens! I like to counter with the argument that its hard to beat a team which has already beaten you twice. Not only has Boston beaten Lehigh twice but the Terriers get to play this game at Case Gym, their very own home floor. They are 9-6 at home, Lehigh is 7-10 on the road. Boston is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and gets it done again this afternoon! |
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03-10-24 | Longwood v. North Carolina-Asheville -2 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
It didn't look good for the Bulldogs for a time yesterday. They showed resiliency, grit and heart though and got the game to OT. Once there, they dominated. They won the extra session by a 12-1 margin. They'll bring that positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Longwood also went to OT yesterday. So, as far as minutes played, the teams are equal in that regard. Give the Lancers credit for taking down High Point, the tournament hosts. This will be an even tougher matchup for them though. The Bulldogs were the preseason favorites in the Big South. The Lancers were picked 5th. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. This afternoon, they will prove the preseason pundits right! |
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03-09-24 | Denver +5 v. UMKC | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
The Kangaroos enter the tournament on a hot streak. The opposite is true of the Pioneers. The tournament is a chance to wipe the slate clean though and those recent results have provided additional line value with the underdog. In the regular season, UMKC was only favored by 2 points at home against the Pioneers. (The Pioneers were favored by 4.5 at Denver.) Tonight, the Roos are laying more than that for a neutral site game. Value! This is unfamiliar territory for the Roos. They aren't used to being favored in tournament games. They are 15-44 SU their last 69 tournament games, 5-21 in conference tourney games. Over the last 2 seasons, they are 2-8 (3-7 ATS) in tournament play, 0-2 SU/ATS in the Summit Tourney. The Pioneers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 tries, when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Denver is also 6-2 ATS its last 8 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points! |
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03-09-24 | Wagner +6.5 v. Central Connecticut State | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is another case of too many points in a game which should come down to the wire. The Blue Devils did win both regular season meetings. Those wins each game by a single point though. That's 3 straight meetings which were decided by exactly one point. Scores of 73-72, 69-68 and 58-57. The previous two before that were both double-digit Wagner wins. One of the reasons Wagner gives the Blue Devils trouble is its defense. The Seahawks allow just 62.8 points per game. Central Connecticut is just 4-8 versus the spread its last 12 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing |
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03-09-24 | Arkansas +14.5 v. Alabama | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Alabama is a great team but given Alabama's recent struggles and the recent history between the teams here, this is a case of too many points. The Crimson Tide are off consecutive losses and have dropped 3 of their past 4. Their last two wins both were by 15 or less. Arkansas is off a big win and had won 3 of its past 5. The Razorbacks' last 3 losses all came by single-digits. Khalif Battle has scored 141 points over his past four games. That's the most in a four-game SEC span in 20 years! The last 2 meetings at Alabama were both decided by 3 points or less. Last year's game here had a score of 86-63 and the year before the score was 68-67. This one will also be closer than expected. Grab the points! |
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03-08-24 | Morehead State v. Tenn-Martin +7.5 | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Give me all those points with Tennessee Martin! The Eagles are a really good team but they're running into a really hot opponent. The Skyhawks are a perfect 7-0 both straight up and versus the spread their last 7 games. They won 21 games this season and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. One of those wins came versus Morehead State. The Eagles easily won yesterday but still didn't cover. They are playing 2 games in 2 days for the first time this season. Even with 1 day's rest, they are 3-6 versus the spread. Grab the points with the rested, higher-seed! **OVC Tourney GOY** |
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03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Aztecs are no longer in the running for the regular season title. They have bigger fish to fry though. They want to win the Conference Tournament in order to get as high a seed as possible for the NCAA Tournament, which is where the ultimate goal lies. They don't want to expend too much energy in winning the Conf. Tournament though. That means that they absolutely do not want to have to play 4 games in 4 days to win it. If they lose tonight, they'd be in danger of dropping all the way down to the 6 seed. That would mean no bye and it would mean they would need to win 4 games in 4 days, which would leave them weary for the Big Dance. This game is important. The Aztecs are undefeated at home this season. A victory here gives them their first undefeated home record in school history. They are 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are also 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries off a MWC loss. Better still, they are 4-0 versus the spread as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points. They will still be perfect in that role after tonight. Lay the points! |
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03-08-24 | Belmont v. Northern Iowa +1.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Yesterday was a favorable matchup for Belmont as the Bruins got to beat up on a bad Valparaiso team. That was expected but today's opponent represents a night-and-day difference. The Panthers were one of the preseason favorites to win this conference and they've been showing that type of form. They closed the season off 3 consecutive double-digit wins. The last meeting saw UNI win by 11 at Belmont. The Bruins are 6-11 versus the spread, when playing against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 8-3-1 versus the spread their last 12 on a neutral court. They are hot and rested and they will secure a small upset by knocking off Belmont this afternoon. **MVC Tourney GOY** |
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03-07-24 | California v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry in the Bay area. The Golden Bears won at Cal but the Cardinal will win here at Stanford. The Cardinal are 3-0 straight up and versus the spread their last 3 tries in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5. The Cardinal are also 13-8 ATS their last 21 tries in the road revenge role. The Bears are playing their 3rd straight road game. They lost the first game by 10 and then got annihilated by 39 last game. The Bears beat up Stanford at Cal last season but the game at Stanford was an entirely different story. The Cardinal crushed Cal by 29. Lay the points! |
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03-07-24 | Valparaiso v. Belmont -13.5 | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
The class difference between these teams will be on full display this afternoon. Belmont (19-12) is hot. The Bruins are 3-0 (straight up and versus the spread their last 3 games and 7-1 their last 8. The Bruins are also 5-1 their last 6 tries against losing teams. Valparaiso, 6-17 versus the spread its last 23 first round conf. tournament games, is 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last 6 tries, when the total was in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Bruins dominated both regular season meetings including an 18 point win at Valparaiso in the most recent. No reason to expect anything different this afternoon. Lay the points. |
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03-06-24 | Tennessee -5.5 v. South Carolina | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
The SEC is very strong this season. South Carolina has defied the odds and thrived. The Gamecocks' most surprising victory came on January 30th when they went to Tennessee and upset the Volunteers. If that was the highlight of the Gamecocks' season so far, it was also the low point of the Volunteers season. It marked their only home loss, as they are 14-1 at home. They haven't forgotten and they will be ready to make things right. South Carolina averages 72 points a game. Tennessee averages more than 80. The Volunteers more than doubled the Gamecocks here last season, as they won 85-42. South Carolina will score more than 42 tonight but wont be able to keep up. Vols in a blowout! |
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03-05-24 | Queens NC v. Stetson -4.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Royals pulled off a minor upset at Florida Gulf Coast last night. Playing 2 road games in 2 days won't be easy for them though. They only played with 0 days rest once during the season and that resulted in a 10 point loss. The Royals are also 2-15 SU and 6-10-1 versus the spread when playing on the road. One of the Royals' road wins came here at Stetson. It won't happen again! The Hatters, 11-2 at home, are 9-4-1 versus the spread their last 14 tries when playing with home revenge, 24-10 ATS (in lined games) in thats situation over the long-term. The Royals are 2-8 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the small number! |
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03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I've got the Howard Bison winning big in this one. The records may be similar but the Bison have some matchup advantages. They already beat the Hornets at Delaware State and they beat them by 20 when the teams played here last season. This is Senior Day and that the Bison are going to want to close out their final home game of regular season with a big statement win. If the Hornets can't beat teams at home, they're rarely able to do on the road. They're 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tries when playing with home revenge. Delaware State gets outscored by 8.8 points per road game. Howard outscores teams by 6.5 points per home game. The Bison are 4-1 versus the spread their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points! **Mid Eastern Athletic GOM** |
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03-03-24 | UAB v. Memphis -7.5 | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Memphis had its rough patch and are starting to play well again as we enter the month of March. UAB's road record is good, but Memphis' home record is better. The Blazers looked bad in their last game against Wichita State. The Tigers crushed East Carolina. UAB may have won the first meeting. Memphis seeks revenge as they now play this matchup at home. The Tigers are 75-44 ATS long-term when playing with road revenge, 9-5 ATS their past 14. March has been "Tiger Time." The Tigers are 9-4 straight up as well as against the spread, their last 13 in March. Going back and they're 92-60 ATS (107-49 SU) in March. Even while winning this year's first encounter, the Blazers are 2-18 straight up in their last 20 games against Memphis (0-16 L16 on the road.) This game is important and not just because of it being Senior Day. (The Tigers will honor 5 seniors.) The Tigers are trying to imporve their postseason position. If it can keep winning, Memphis still has a path to a top-four seed and a double-bye in the AAC Championship. Memphis comes away victorious, both SU and ATS! |
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03-03-24 | Rider v. Canisius +1.5 | 65-61 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Big revenge game for the Canisius Golden Griffins here. The Broncs are 5-11 on the road. The Golden Griffins are 8-3 at home. Time for Canisius to get some payback after they lost that overtime game against them in January. This is a good role for the Griffins as they are 3-0 straight-up and versus the spread the past 3 times that they were home underdogs of 3 or less. Even on their current 5-game winning streak, the Broncs still have a losing record this season. The Golden Griffins are 5-1 versus the spread in their last six games played in the month of March. Canisius has also been on a winning streak having won three in a row. With home-court advantage and the Golden Griffins honoring their seniors for Senior Day, Canisius is your winner. |
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03-02-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Wagner | Top | 57-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Seahawks upset them at Fairleigh Dickinson. This afternoon, the Knights will do the same at Wagner. The Knights are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries, as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. All five ATS victories were also of the straight up variety. Wagner is the opposite. The Seahawks are 1-3 their past 4 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. All the ATS losses came outright. Last year as 2 point road underdogs, the Knights beat the Seahawks by 18 here! That was after Wagner has won at FDU. Sound familiar? The Knights love March basketball. They're 20-4 versus the spread their last 24 lined games in the month of March, 5-1 ATS the past 2 years. They are also 9-5 ATS their last 14 tries, after scoring 60 points or less and 5-2 ATS their last 7 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing |
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03-02-24 | Florida +2.5 v. South Carolina | 76-82 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Getting points with the Florida Gators is a bonus, considering that I've got them winning this game outright. The Gators are already 4-2 versus the spread, as an underdog. They're 2-1 the past 3 seasons as road underdogs of 3 or less. Both the wins were both straight up and versus the spread. South Carolina coach Lamont Paris knows that the Gators, 9-2 their last 11, are going to be difficult: We've got a team that's been playing extremely well coming into our place." This game is going to impact the seeding for the upcoming SEC Tournament. Remember that in the SEC that the top four teams in the final regular-season standings earn byes to the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gators beat the Gamecocks by 21 last season and they've won 15 of their last 22 visits to South Carolina. They're still the better team and they'll prove it this afternoon! |
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03-01-24 | Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -7 | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
The UL Monroe Warhawks are 12th in the Sun Belt. The South Alabama Jaguars are 7th. The Warhawks are 3-11 on the road. The Jaguars are 10-6 at home. The Warhawks won a January meeting at UL Monroe. The Jaguars will avenge that loss by blowing them out tonight! These clubs last played here last February. Favored by 11 points, the Jagurs won by 36! With that victory, they are 36-15 straight up and 23-15 versus the spread at home the past 3 seasons. The Warhawks are off an 18-point loss versus Texas State. They are 3-7 ATS when off a conference loss. The Jaguars win this game by more than 10 points. |
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02-29-24 | Campbell v. College of Charleston -15 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
These teams played a month ago, at Campbell. The Cougars won by 23. Playing at home, this will be another one-sided contest. The Cougars have won 7 straight games. Their last 2 wins came by 16 and 19 points. The Fighting Camels are only 3-10 on the road. The Fighting Camels average 64 points per game on the road. The Cougars average 81.7 points per game at home. Charleston has allowed 57 or fewer points in 2 of 3 games and an average of 65 over its past 5 games. The class of the Coastal Athletic Association, the Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points. The Fighting Camels are allowing 83.6 points their last 5. Better on both offense and defense, the Cougars will dominate from start to finish. |
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02-28-24 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -4.5 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
After consecutive losses, the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss last game. They will now be playing their second straight road game and they will do so against a desperate Texas A&M. Though the Aggies have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those losses were on the road. They are still 9-4 at home. They will be happy to face a South Carolina team which they beat by 41 points the last meeting. The total for this game is in the mid 130s. The Aggies are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Over the last 3 seasons, Texas A&M is 31-16-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. They are also 6-2 ATS (8-0 straight up) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points with the Aggies! |
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02-27-24 | Penn State v. Iowa -8.5 | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Penn State won at home on the weekend but the road has not been kind to the Nittany Lions. They are only 3-10 away from home and they allow more than 78 points per road game. The Hawkeyes lost at Penn State earlier this month and they lost at Illinois last game. Winning on the road has been difficult for them as well. They are 3-8 away from home. They are 11-3 in 14 home games though and they outscore visiting teams by more than 12 points a game here. The total for this game is currently 161.5 or 162. A high-scoring game will favor the Hawkeyes. They are 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 versus the spread their past 17 tries when playing a home game with a total of 160 to 164.5. They average 90 points a game here and they will blow out Penn State tonight! |
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02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Not many will want to back the Hurricanes in this spot. Miami has lost 6 straight games, one of them to North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 1-5 versus the spread in those games, 0-4 the past 4. That's going to keep people off them. The oddsmakers are forced to post a very large point-spread. That's giving us exceptional value on the road underdog. The Hurricanes have been playing some close games. Miami is off a 4-point loss and that the game against North Carolina was decided by only 3 points. The Tar Heels have also been playing some close ones. They are 5-3 their last 8 games and only one of the games was a win by more than 10 points. That was a 15-point win over Virginia Tech, a team which Miami is 2-0 against. The Hurricanes are on a long-term 43-24 ATS run, after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are also 8-2 versus the spread (7-3 straight up) their last 10 tries, revenging a home loss vs opponent and 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games where the total was 150 to 154.5. The Hurricanes won outright here last February. Give me the points! |
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02-25-24 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota has been printing money for its backers this season. The Gophers have been excellent versus the point-spread all season and they beat Nebraska by 11 back in December. Their ATS success comes to a screeching halt this evening though. Nebraska has been strong at home this season and the Gophers lost by 11 here on this exact day last year. The Cornhuskers are a perfect 6-0 versus the spread their past 6 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are 17-8 ATS their last 25 tries. With a 5-1 ATS record this month, 3-0 ATS the last 3, Nebraska is playing better than it was for the earlier meeting. The Gophers are 20-41-1 ATS their last 62 a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points with Nebraska this evening. |
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02-25-24 | Long Beach State v. Hawaii -2.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
A trip to Hawaii isn't easy on students. Coaches can help them avoid distractions but there's the physical toll of the trip itself. There's also a tough defensive team waiting for them upon arrival. The Warriors are 10-6 here. They make scoring difficult. Visiting schools score 67.7 points per game here. Long Beach State allows more than 77 points per game on the road. The Warriors are 5-3 versus the spread their last 8 tries as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. They lost last month at Long Beach State but they beat the Beach by 9 here last season. They're undefeated at home this month including a revenge win. They will help close out our Saturday with another win and cover. |
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02-24-24 | Gardner-Webb v. North Carolina-Asheville -3 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Small line but this should be a big win in this Big South Conference "Battle of the Bulldogs" this afternoon. The Gardner Webb Bulldogs won at Gardner Webb but they only have 5 wins in 16 road games. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs are 12-1 at home. They outscore teams by an average of 18.9 points here! UNC Asheville is 5-0 versus the spread its last 5 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5. Gardner Webb is 1-6 versus the spread (0-7 straight up) its last 7 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. UNC Asheville has thrived in the revenge role and is 9-4 versus the spread its last 13 tries, when off a conference loss. UNC Asheville beat GW by 12 here last season. Lay the points. |
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02-24-24 | Indiana +4.5 v. Penn State | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The Nittany Lions upset the Hoosiers at Indiana. Now the Hoosiers will do the same right back to them. The Hoosiers have won 12 of their last 20 games here. Off 3 straight losses, they really need this game. The Hoosiers are 5-3 versus the spread when off a loss against a conference rival, 17-12 ATS the last 3 years. The Nittany Lions are 4-7 versus the spread after scoring 80 points or more. Penn State is also 3-6-1 ATS its last 10 as a favorite. Give me the points with Indiana. |
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02-23-24 | North Florida v. Jacksonville | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
Home-court means a great deal to each of these clubs. The Ospreys are 10-4 at home but 5-9 on the road. The home/road differences are even greater for Jacksonville. The Dolphins are 2-13 away but 10-1 at home. The Ospreys won at North Florida. Now the Dolphins will win at Jacksonville. The Dolphins allow only 59.5 points per game at home. The Ospreys allow 81.4 points per game on the road. The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 8 tries in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5. It was on this day (2/23) 2 years ago that Jacksonville beat North Florida 71-39. The Dolphins will repeat history and will improve to 4-1 versus the spread in five tries when playing with road revenge. |
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02-21-24 | Furman +7.5 v. Samford | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Too many points. Samford can really score but so can the Paladins. Furman won this season's first meeting by 10 points. The Paladins have won 4 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10. Four of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 or fewer points, one of those going to Overtime. Samford is off a 4-point loss. Furman has won 3 straight games, the margin of victory growing with each one. The Paladins are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Paladins are also 11-1 ATS versus good offensive teams after at least 15 games have been played, good being defined as teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Grab the points. |
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02-19-24 | Iowa State v. Houston -9.5 | 65-73 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
They beat them at Iowa State but the Cyclones aren't built to go on road and to contend with a team like these Houston Cougars. They feed off the energy at home but all 5 of their losses have come on the road or at a neutral site. They are 5-8 versus the spread their 13 versus good defensive teams - allowing |
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02-19-24 | North Carolina Central v. Norfolk State -6 | Top | 74-80 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Spartans lost in the MEAC Championship game last season. They are determined to get back there and to win it this year. They are gearing up to do so and that means beating teams like NC Central when they come for a visit. The Eagles are off back to back losses. The Spartans are off a victory. The Eagles won this season's first meeting. They aren't as good on the road though and the Spartans are undefeated at home. In 10 games here, they outscore teams by a 87.6 to 62.8 average score. The Spartans are also 6-1-1 versus the spread their last 8 tries when playing with road revenge. They are 5-0 ATS their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and they will get us a win and cover tonight. |
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02-18-24 | Memphis +4.5 v. SMU | Top | 79-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Tigers may be wounded but they are still very dangerous. Prior to losing their last game to North Texas, they had won 3 straight. They have also defeated SMU 4 straight times. The Tigers are especially deadly as underdogs. Over the last 3 years, they are 14-5 versus the spread, when getting points. This season, they are 4-2 in the underdog role with 4 outright victories. The Mustangs lost a close 3-point game at Memphis in January. Revenge isn't much of a motivator for them though as they are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries in the road revenge role. The Mustangs are 12-18 ATS their last 30 tries when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and they are 4-8 ATS their last 12 tries versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Give me the points! |
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02-18-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. Rhode Island +4.5 | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
The Ramblers are strong at home but beatable on the road. They are 11-16 versus the spread the L3 years when off a conference victory. During that time, they ware 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Though they are off consecutive ATS victories on the road, the first a big SU win and the second a close 2-point loss, the Rams have also been much stronger at home. They are 9-4 here, averaging 88 points. They've won 4 of their last 6 games here. Three of those were decided by 4 points or less. Give me the points with Rhode Island! |
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02-17-24 | Arizona State v. Arizona -18.5 | 60-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The Wildcats have a score to settle. The Sun Devils beat them by a point here last season. Arizona did go on to lay a beating on its instate rivals in the Pac-12 Tournament. Yet, the Wildcats are going to be determined to make this one hurt. Arizona is 12-4 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record. The Wildcats average 93.4 points per home game. Arizona State is 0-3 versus the spread when the total is 150 to 159.5. The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 tries with a total in that range. They average only 67 points per road game. This will be a "cake-walk." |
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02-17-24 | St. Joe's v. Duquesne -2 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Short line for Duquesne at home. The Dukes are 8-4 at home. The Hawks are 3-6 on the road. The Hawks narrowly won the first meeting, at St. Josephs. Duquesne won the last game here by 14 points. The Hawks are 1-3 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They have won just 8 of their last 39 road games which had a total of 145 to 149.5. Off a bad loss to Dayton, Duquesne will respond. The Dukes are 2-0 versus the spread, after scoring 60 points or less In that situation, they beat Fordham by 9 and they went on the road and beat St. Bonaventure by 6. Dukes do it again! |
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02-16-24 | Harvard +9 v. Cornell | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a case of too many points. Cornell was favored by 5.5 points over Harvard here last season, also a mid-February game. The Crimson won outright by 17 points! Having lost this season's first meeting, the Crimson are coming in with another upset on their minds. Harvard dominated Dartmouth last game. Cornell is off a tough 2-point loss to Yale. Though the Big Red covered the spread in that game, they are only 5-11 against the number of their last 16 games played in February. Cornell can really score but Harvard is 19-7-1 its last 27 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Harvard is also 3-0 against the spread its last 3 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the points. |
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02-15-24 | Utah Valley v. California Baptist -2.5 | Top | 69-46 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The Wolverines took the first meeting by a score of 65-58. That was at home and they are 2-11 on the road. The Lancers are 10-4 at home. They limit visiting teams to less than 64 points per game. The point spread is low partly because Cal Baptist has lost 3 straight games versus the number. The Lancers are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 lined games, after 3 straight non-covers. The Lancers have to win this one as they face the best team in the conference next, the first of 3 straight road games. Lay the small number! |
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02-14-24 | Tennessee v. Arkansas +8.5 | Top | 92-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Tennessee is a very strong team but Arkansas is much better than most bettors realize. These were both top 10 teams in this year's preseason rankings. Public perception is providing us with a very generous line on a talented and live underdog. The Razorbacks have under-achieved but they have turned the corner. They won their last game and have 2 wins their last 3 games. The Razorbacks are 9-4 SU at home and 38-9 here the last 3 years. They are 11-1 SU their last 12 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5 The Volunters are 6-5 on the road, only 3-8 against the spread. They are 8-13-1 versus the spread their last 22 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. They are off a loss to the Aggies and have dropped 2 of their last 4. The Razorbacks have beaten the Volunteers the last few meetings here and they are 10-3 the last 13 here. In a game they could end up winning outright, let's grab all those points! **SEC GOY** |
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02-14-24 | South Carolina v. Auburn -11 | 61-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
South Carolina is one of the bigger surprises of the season. Picked to finish in the basement, or at least near the bottom, of the competitive SEC Conference, the Gamecocks have thrived. They won't sneak up on the Tigers though and Auburn is a double-figure favorite for a reason. When the Tigers win, they win big. Their last 6 victories have all come by at least 14 points. They have beaten the Gamecocks 6 straight times, the last 5 of those all came by greater than 10 points. The Tigers are 10-5, both straight-up and against the spread, their last 15 off a conference loss. They are also 5-0 versus the spread the past 5x that they home favorites of 9.5 to 12 points. This will be another cakewalk. |
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02-13-24 | New Mexico v. Nevada -2 | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
They say that an elephant never forgets. Apparently a "Wolf Pack" rarely does either. Nevada is an exemplary 79-50 against the spread its last 129 lined games, when playing with road revenge. That includes a 15-7 against the spread record when playing with revenge from a road loss of 20 or more points. Think the Wolf Pack remember last month's 89-55 throttling at New Mexico? You better believe it! Since that beating, the Wolf Pack have won 3 straight, both straight up and versus the pointspread. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3. They've been underdogs twice this season and came up short in both instances. Lay the small number! |
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02-12-24 | Kansas +3 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Time will tell but I believe that they've got the wrong team favored in this one. I love a good home underdog as much as the next guy. The problem is Texas Tech isn't even a home underdog. The Red Raiders are laying points against a top 5 Kansas team. Short-handed or not, the Jayhawks are still the stronger team. The Jayhawks are battling through some adversity as they are short-handed. The statuses of McDowell and McCuller are both up in the air. Important players that make the Jayhawks better. They just beat Baylor without them though, the defense elevating and delivering a peak performance. The Red Raiders have battled illness themselves and are also coming off a strong defensive game. They are only 11-19 ATS their last 30 tries, after allowing 60 or less. Kansas is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Jayhawks have beaten the Raiders 8 of the last 9 times and 3 of the last 4 meetings were decided by 2 buckets or less. Grab the points. |
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02-11-24 | Seton Hall v. Villanova -5 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Villanova's strong homecourt defense will make the difference in this afternoon's game against the Seton Hall Pirates. Seton Hall allows 69.4 points per road game. The Wildcats only permit 63.9 points per home game. Visiting teams average less than 30 first half points and hit just 40% of their field goals. The Wildcats are 6-1 against the spread when the O|U line was in the 130 to 139.5 range. The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an total of 130 to 134.5. They are also 5-2 ATS their last 7 as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats lost a close one at Xavier last game but they pounded Providence in their last home game. They will bounce back with another big home win. |
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02-10-24 | Oakland v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Wright State is one of the fastest teams in the country. The Raiders can run visiting teams right out of the building. They average 87.7 points per home game and 88.8 points a game in Horizon League play. They connect on a very high 56.4% of their field goals, in this building. Oakland struggles against top level competition. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 against the spread their last 4 against teams with a winning record. That brings them to 8-14-1 ATS their last 23 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. These teams will face each other again on February 25th, at Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies will have a chance in that one but not today. The Raiders are 9-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS their last 13 as a host in the series. Unable to contend with the pace, the Golden Grizzlies aren't going to know what hit them! |
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02-10-24 | Clemson v. Syracuse +4.5 | 77-68 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Off their upset win at North Carolina, my feeling is that the Tigers are ripe for a letdown on Saturday afternoon. Clemson is 1-3 straight up and against the spread, when coming off a win over an ACC rival. They are also 5-9 ATS when off a SU win overall. The ACC is always difficult but the Orange have also played some strong non-conference opponents like Gonzaga, Tennessee and Oregon. Clemson won't scare them. There have been some issues on the road but the Orange are 11-1 at home. The only time that they were home underdogs, the Orange smashed NC State by 12 points. This has long been a strong role for Syracuse. The Orange are 14-5, both SU and ATS, as home underdogs of 3 or less, or pick. Grab the points. |
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02-09-24 | UC San Diego v. Hawaii | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is splendid value. We get Hawaii at home, playing with revenge and we don't even have to lay any points. Hawaii is 31-15 at home the last 3 seasons. Uc San Diego is 15-25 on the road. This is no easy place to play and that's not just because of the travel factor. The Warriors 12-6 straight up their last 18 off a loss, won their last home game by 10 points. They allow only 66 points a game here. It was 365 days ago that they beat UC San Diego here by 7 points. Home court will reign supreme and the Warriors will win again tonight! |
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02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs lost to St. Mary's last game. They're going to be in a bad mood. Portland is showing up at a bad moment. Not that there's ever a good time for the Pilots to play here. They last played here one year ago and they lost by 40. The score was 61-28 by halftime and 115-75 by the end of the game. The Pilots are off a couple of wins but those were at home and came against Pacific and Pepperdine. They are 4-10 against the spread their last 14 against winning teams. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14, when off a conference win. Long-term, that is an ugly role for the Pilots. They are 45-74, not counting pushes and non-lined games, their last 119 tries, off a conference win. Lay the points in what will be another 30+ point rout. |
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02-06-24 | Canisius +4.5 v. Niagara | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Canisius is off a bad loss and has struggled of late. That has led to a nice underdog line against an inferior opponent. The Golden Griffins also struggled to start last season. But by February, they turned things around. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 in February. This team is fully capable of doing the same and it starts tonight. The Golden Griffins beat the Purple Eagles handily at Canisius last season. The game at Niagara was decided by just 3 points. Niagara has lost 2 of its last 3 home games. All 3 were decided by 6 or less. Canisius is 25-13 against the spread the last 2 years against winning teams and has an excellent chance of winning this game outright. Grab the points. |
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02-03-24 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
Give me Gonzaga at home in this battle of West Coast Conference heavyweights. These are the top 2 teams in the conference every year. The Bulldogs get more attention but the Gaels are also consistently very strong. This year is no different. Gonzaga is currently in a better place. The Gaels have had trouble in consecutive games. Hosting back to back lightweights, they were favored by 16.5 and 13.5 points. They struggled with those bad teams though and won each game by only 5 points. Last game, they beat Santa Clara 82-77. That level of play won't cut it tonight. The Bulldogs were favored by 14.5 points last game, roughly the same that St. Mary's was for its game. Unlike the Gaels, Gonzaga won by 34 points. That confidence building blowout is going to serve them well tonight! The Gaels are only 5-11-1 against the spread their last 17 tries, after scoring 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS their last 10 tries, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points, through at least 15 games of the season. Gonzaga won by 26 last March in the WCC Tournament and by 9 in last season's regular season game here. Lay the points! |
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02-03-24 | Connecticut v. St. John's +3.5 | 77-64 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Most assume the Huskies are unbeatable. The reality is that St John's has a better home record than UConn has a road record. The Red Storm score more points at home than the Huskies do on the road. The Red Storm also allows fewer points at home than Uconn does on the road. St. Johns outscores teams here by a 80 to 64.5 average. UConn outscores teams on the road by a 75.6 to 70.2 average. Remember that St. John's nearly upset the Huskies at Connecticut. The Red Storm lost by only 4. They beat Villanova by 20 their last game here. That same Villanova team almost beat UConn. The Red Storm are 4-2 against the spread as underdogs. The Huskies are 2-4 against the spread their last 6 road game with an total in the 145 to 149.5 range. Take the points! |
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02-01-24 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -6.5 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Hofstra already handled the Seawolves at Stony Brook. They will absolutely do so again in tonight's rematch at the David S. Mack Sports Complex. Both clubs are strong at home. Both have struggled on the road. Hofstra has won 8 of the last 9 meetings. The last game here saw the Pride win by a 79-58 score. The projected tempo will not help the Seawolves. They are 2-8 straight up and against the pointspread their last 10 tries when on the road with a total of 140 to 144.5. Off a 81-78 loss at Monmouth, the Pride are going to be bringing it. They are 10-6-1 ATS their past 17 tries when off a game where they allowed 80 or more. They've won each of their last 2 home games by more than 8 and they will win this one by more than 8 as well. ***CAA GOY*** |
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01-31-24 | St. John's +1.5 v. Xavier | 77-88 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Seeing Xavier laying such a short number at home, many are going to be quick to back the Musketeers. As tempting as that may seem, the Red Storm are currently the better team. Xavier coach Miller acknowledged at the beginning of the season that his team had gone through a lot of changes and said not to judge them for the first few months. He had hoped that by February and March his team would be peaking. The Musketeers aren't quite there yet, as they just lost their last 2 games by a combined 53 points. The Red Storm had their way with the Musketeers last month. They are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs. They score us an upset in this one! |
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01-30-24 | Miami-OH v. Kent State -7.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Records are the same but only overall. The home/road splits will strongly work in Kent State's favor. The Golden Flashes average 82.2 points per home game. The RedHawks average 70 points on the road. Last time Miami was off a MAC win, it followed it up with a 16 point blowout loss. Kent State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 against the spread the past 3 meetings. Two double-digit wins. The closer game was at Miami. Flashes have beaten Miami 19 of last 23 times here. They have always been one of the better teams in the conference and this year will end up no different. They remind the RedHawks and their doubters of that tonight. |
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01-29-24 | New Orleans +9.5 v. Lamar | 73-98 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
New Orleans just got humiliated and will want to respond with a better effort. New Orleans won both meetings last season. The Privateers have thrived at the betting window as road underdogs in this range the last few seasons. the Cardinals arent used to being home favorites of this size latel but it hasn't been a good role for them over many years. Lamar scores a lot but also gives up a lot. New Orleans is 30-14 against the spread its last 44 lined games when facing teams which average 77 or more points, after at least 15 games have been played. NO is 6-1 SU the past 7 meetings. Grab the big points! |
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01-27-24 | North Dakota +8.5 v. St. Thomas | Top | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
When taking points with an underdog, I first need to believe that my team has a legitimate chance to win the game outright. North Dakota checks that box. The Fighting Hawks have perhaps the top front-court in the Summit Conference. Coming into the season, they were projected by some to finish #2 in the conference, behind South Dakota State. St. Thomas was 3rd. Though the Fighting Hawks may well win the game, they don't need to. This is a big number and we can still cash with a close loss. Two of the Tommies' last 4 games have been decided by 1 point. The Fighting Hawks have a score to settle. They circled this game after the Tommies embarrassed them on December 29th. They are 9-6 against the spread their last 15, when playing with revenge. Off 3 straight double-digit wins, the Fighting Hawks are playing much better than they were for the earlier meeting. They are 9-2 ATS their last 11 off a conference win and they will bring their best tonight. **Summit Conf GOY** |
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01-27-24 | Nebraska v. Maryland -5 | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Nebraska is 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road. The Huskers are 0-2 (SU and ATS) on the road when the total was in the 140 to 144.5 range. Going back, Nebraska is 10-18 ATS its last 28 on the road. In their game here one year ago, the Huskers lost 82-63. The Terrapins are off an important win at Iowa. They are 3-0 against the spread when off a Big Ten victory. A win over Penn State was followed by a 40 point blowout of Alcorn State. A win over Michigan was followed by a win at Illinois. The win over Illinois was followed by a cover at Northwestern. The Terrrapins will move to 4-0 ATS off a conference win by hammering the Huskers! |
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01-25-24 | Western Illinois v. Southern Indiana +2.5 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Tough losses, the kind that come at the buzzer, or which feature a blown lead, can be tough for college teams to overcome. Southern Indiana lost a tough one 2 games ago, falling 77-75 to Arkansas Little Rock. After letting that one get away, the Screaming Eagles lost their next game by 11. They are still 9-6 against the spread as underdogs and they will be ready to respond today. The Leathernecks are off a tough loss of their own. They blew a lead and fell 58-57 to Tennessee State. Just as it was difficult for the Screaming Eagles to bounce back from their tough loss, it will be the same for the Leathernecks. They are only 39-111 straight up the past 150 times that they were off a conference loss, an awful 56-88 against the spread in those games. Western Illinois only scores 63 points a game on the road and that won't be enough. |
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01-25-24 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson +2.5 | 76-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Two evenly matched teams and we get points with one on its home floor. The Blue Devils have the better record but that doesn't mean that they are more talented. The Knights can still take things to another level. Who can forget their upset of Purdue in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Blue Devils are 0-2 against the spread the last few seasons as road favorites of 3 or less. Both losses came outright. The Knights are 7-1 against the spread the past 8 times that they faced an opponent with a winning record after 15 or more games. They are also 5-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games. I will take the points but I don't expect to need them. |
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01-24-24 | East Carolina v. Wichita State -3 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The Shockers are badly in need of a victory. They will be pleased to see East Carolina. Off 3 straight defeats, the Pirates are struggling nearly as much as they are. As bad as things look on the surface, Wichita State hasn't played terribly. Let's look at the losing streak. They beat Southern Illinois on 12/16. The next 2 games were versus Kansas and Kansas State. Losing them wasn't too bad. A loss against North Texas to start 2024 wasn't very impressive. Since then, three of four games have been on the road and the only home game was against Memphis. Two games ago, they gave a strong FAU team a good fight and last game they nearly won at South Florida. This is a team on the cusp of breaking out. The Pirates are 0-2 against the spread as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points. They are 19-31 their last 50 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points. They score 64 points a game on the road. The Shockers score 76 at home. Don't be shocked when Wichita snaps its losing streak with a big win! |
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01-22-24 | Bethune-Cookman v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Even at neutral site, I'd expect the Golden Lions to win tonight's game. This isn't a neutral site. WE get the game in Pine Bluff, at H.O. Clemmons Arena. That favors the Golden Lions. They are only 2-7 on the road but they're 5-3 at home. The Wildcats also prefer they're home cooking. They're 6-1 in home games but 2-6 on the road. Despite these records, we don't have to worry about laying a big pointspread. These teams met twice the last 2 seasons. Arkansas Pine Bluff won both. The Golden Lions won 77-71 at Daytona Beach last year and 69-63 at Pine Bluff in 2022. The Wildcats are only 2-6-1 against the spread the last 8 times that they were road underdogs of 3 or less, or pick'em. They score only 63 points a game on the road and the Lions are scoring 93 a game at home. Go with Arkansas Pine Bluff. ***SWAC GOY*** |
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01-21-24 | Michigan State v. Maryland +2 | 61-59 | Push | 0 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
Homecourt is a big difference maker for these teams. Michigan State is 10-2 at home but 0-3 on the road. Maryland is 2-4 on the road but 9-1 at home. Michigan State is off a win but didn't exactly impress. Tom Izzo said as much: "We won a game but we did not progress, and I was disappointed." Fifth-year guard Jahmir Young has been unstoppable for the Terrapins. He's off a 36-point effort on Wednesday and has scored at least 20 points in six of his last seven games. "Maryland coach Kevin Willard said this of Young: "Jahmir was phenomenal, absolutely phenomenal." Young will have another big day, leading Maryland to an upset on Sunday afternoon. |
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01-20-24 | Connecticut v. Villanova +4.5 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
UConn is a great team, fully deserving of a high national ranking. The Huskies aren't unbeatable though and may not stay #1 after this. Though they seemingly haven't missed a beat since winning the National Championship, the Huskies did lose 3 of their top 6 scorers to the NBA. Those losses will finally be felt today. The Wildcats could easily have a better record. They already have losses of 1, 2 and 4 points. Off a disappointing game at Marquette, they will bring their A-Game today. Coach Neptune said this after the loss: "We can't use anything as an excuse. Once you get on the floor with another team ... you got to get it done. Period. There's no excuses." Defense makes a difference. The Wildcats, 2-1 against the spread and straight-up as underdogs, only allow 62.9 points per game at home. Visiting teams hit 40.5% of their field goals. The Huskies allow 70.9 points a game on the road. The teams hosting them hit 43.7% of their field goals. Their only time as a home underdog resulted in an 83-81 win over UNC. The Wildcats are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when playing with 3 or more day's rest between games. Off the loss to Marquette on 1/15, they bounce back big tonight! |
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01-20-24 | Penn State v. Ohio State -10 | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
The Buckeyes have struggled in Big Ten Conference play but a visit from the Nittany Lions will fix that. The Buckeyes already lost at Penn State last month and they will not let this team sweep them. Penn State has been fine at home and is off a win over Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are 1-7 on the road though and theyv'e been outscored by an average of 85.7 to 75.4 The Buckeyes have also strugged on the road but they are 8-2 at home and have outscored teams by a 76.4 to 63.2 average score here. Homecourt makes the difference with the Buckeyes avenging last month's loss with a blowout victory of their own. |
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01-19-24 | St. Louis v. VCU -8 | Top | 61-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
VCU won 27 games and went to the NCAA Tournament last season. The Rams lost a lot from that team including their coach. They did keep four players and they brought in excellent replacements. Off back-to-back road wins, they are starting to gel. This is still a high quality team. The Billikens lost a lot from last season. Six of their top 7 scorers are gone from last year. They would tell you differently but they are essentially rebuilding this year. The Billikens, 9-14 against the spread their last 23 as road dogs in the 6 to 9.5 range, are 1-7 on the road this season. They've been outscored by an average score of 80.2 to 68.6. The Rams will add to the Billikens road woes with a blowout victory! |
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01-18-24 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee State -7 | Top | 53-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The Tigers will take care of their instate rivals. The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread their last 5 tries as a home favorite in the 6 to 9.5 range. Over that time, the Golden Eagles are 1-3 against the spread in 4 tries as a road underdog in the 6 to 9.5 range. The home team won big in both meetings last year. The Tigers earned a 67-53 victory here after winning 80-64 here, the year before. This season, State is 7-1 at home and Tech is 2-7 on the road. It'll be another blowout win for the home team. |
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01-17-24 | Nevada v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
Line should be higher. Nevada is a good team but still not quite in the class of San Diego State. The Wolf Pack lost by 8, at home, against Boise last game. Their previous 2 conference games came against Air Force and Fresno. Neither of those teams is very good. Now they go on the road to take on a high quality program like SDSU. The Aztecs won their first 3 MWC games (now 36-9 L45 against MWC) but lost at New Mexico State last game. Both their home conference games have been double-digit wins. They are 6-2 against the spread (7-1 straight up) the past 8 times that they were off a MWC loss. The home team won by 9 in both games last season. The Aztecs will bounce back with a blowout win. |
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01-16-24 | Temple +13.5 v. SMU | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
This is too many points for SMU to be giving Temple. The Owls have some shortcomings but the Mustangs dont have all the pieces to fully take advantage. The Mustangs are 0-5 against the number their last five tries, as a home favorite in the -12.5 to -15 pointspread range. Off a loss at North Texas, the Owls will be going all out for a win. They are 11-6 against the spread their last 17 tries, when off a conference loss. Six straight meetings have been decided by 11 points or less. The last time Temple was here it was a 1-point game. Give me the points. |
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01-14-24 | Liberty +3.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
I'm always happy to take points in a game where I like the underdog to win outright. Though new to this conference, the Flames are an experienced team which is used to winning. They won 27 games last year and brought back a lot of that squad. Off a bad upset loss, we will see them bounce back and be at their best for this afternoon's showdown. The Bulldogs have been playing a lot of road games and it will catch up with them against an inspired Liberty team. They are 3-5 against the spread their last 8 as home favorites between 3.5 and 6 points and 10-17 ATS after playing three or more consecutive games on the road. Liberty is 5-1 straight up and against the spread when the total was in the 130s. The Flames are also 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games with a total in the 130 to 134.5 range. Grab the points. ***CUSA GOY*** |
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01-13-24 | Long Beach State v. UC-Santa Barbara -1 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Long Beach State is a good team but the Gauchos are even better. UC Santa Barbara went to the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd time in 3 years last season. They swept LBSU along the way. UC Santa Barbara allows 73 points, LBSU allows more than 77. The Gauchos are 6-1 their last 7 against teams which allow 77 or more points and they're 18-5 their last 23, when playing with 1 or less day's rest in between games. Off a loss last game, LBSU is 18-19 its past 37 road games. Over that time, the Gauchos are 29-8 here in Santa Barbara. Homecourt in their favor, this will be win #30. ***BIG WEST GOY*** |
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01-13-24 | Binghamton +4 v. Albany | 75-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I believe Binghampton is the better team. So, getting points is a bonus. The Bearcats fell behind Bryant in their last game but showed a lot of fight to get back and make it a game. Albany isn't nearly as strong as Bryant. The Great Danes have dropped 4 of their last 7 and their last 2 games were both decided by 6 or less. Binghampton has taken 3 of the last 4 in the series and the only win for Albany came by one. Grab the points! |