Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-22 | Wichita State v. Houston OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
more analysis to come |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 146.5 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day. Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Baylor/Iowa State These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game. The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State |
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12-29-21 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 143 | Top | 84-85 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Memphis/Tulane Memphis is 6-4, but it's 0-2 on the road. Tulane is 3-6 overall, including 2-2 at home. When these teams played last year, Memphis pulled away for a 61-46 win and the total stayed well "under" the posted number of 130. I expect a similar final combined score this season as well. The Green Wave average 72.1 PPG, while Memphis averages 77.7. However, each is underrated on the defensive end of the floor as well. Each also comes in rested after having a few games postponed due to COVID. Look for this conference matchup to be a competitive one, but also a lower-scoring defensive affair. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Charlotte UNDER 131.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Maryland Eastern Shore/Charlotte Both teams enter at 5-5. The Hawks enter off a 79-43 win over St. Mary's AD. Nathaniel Pollard had 16 points and 8 boards. I was impressed by their defensive play and I believe that confidence/momentum is carried over here. In fact, Maryland Eastern Shore enters having won three straight. Charlotte will be out to rebound from an 82-79 loss to Wake Forest. Jahmir Young exploded for 27 points, 9 boards and 4 assists for the 49ers. Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in two straight, but I expect this competitive contest to be a tighter defensive one in the end. 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the under. |
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12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | Top | 78-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Dartmouth/Stanford Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring "overs" of late, but I think this non-conference matchup will produce a lower-scoring game finally. Dartmouth is out to snap a four-game slide. The Big Green average 70.9 PPG, while allowing 70.8. Clearly the margin of error is razor slim for Dartmouth most nights. The Big Green's defense catchs somewhat of a break today facing Stanford's methodical attack that produces 69.9 PPG on average. The Cardinal though will need to get things figured out on the defensive end before conference play gets underway if they have any hopes of competing this season, as they allow 70 PPG on average so far. Stanford will have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead here, despite this being an important final tune-up. I say the last thing that the home side can do is to turn this into a "track meet." I expect a defensive affair. 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Dartmouth/Stanford. |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for this one to go "over" the number either. But in my opinion, this one does in fact set up great for a lower-scoring "under." It's interesting to note, that both teams have gone 3-0 ATS to open up the tournament. Each will be wary not to give the other an open look from the outside. USC averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing only 64.5, but note that it's conceded just 58.3 over its first three NCAA Tourney games. The pick: Gonzaga's nation-leading offense (91.8 PPG) is going to have its hands full with this aggressive Trojans' defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 68.6 PPG this year, and everything, in my opinion, points to this one being an extreme defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ELITE 8 BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER USC/Gonzaga. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Baylor will be wary to get into a "shootout" here with the dangerous Razorbacks. The Bears hammered Villanova into submission by a score of 62-51 last tome out and I expect their tough defensive play to carry over here. How much gas does Arkansas have left in the tank after fighting tooth and nail in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts as an 11-point favorite last time out? Not much in my opinion. The pick: Further note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 neutal site games after allowing 70 or more points in its last outing, while Baylor has seen the total dip below in five of its last seven after holding its previous opponent to 55 points or less in a SU/ATS victory. I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it does. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Arkansas/Baylor. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois OVER 150 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Big Ten Championship game. Illinois beat No. 5 Iowa 82-71, while Ohio State upset No. 3 Michigan with a 68-67 victory. Ohio State jumped out to an early lead, but the Buckeyes faltered late and allowed Michigan back into it. Duane Washington Jr. was a stand out with 24 points, six boards and four assists. Overall the Buckeyes average 77 PPG, while allowing 70.3. The pick: Ohio State is going to have its hands full today with one of the Nation's top offenses, as the Fighting Illini average 81 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Ohio State is very efficent offensively, ranking fifth in the KenPom rankings in shooting splits and in free-throw shooting. Expect these two highly effective offenses to push this total well "over" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Ohio State/Illinois. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 144.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan advanced to the semi finals with a 79-66 win over Maryland. Ohio State has won two straight in the Conference tournament to advance, most recently an 87-78 OT win over Purdue to advance. Michigan won the lone regular season battle on the road between the teams, a 92-87 thriller and I'm expecting a similar style battle, and ultimately higher-scoring contest here as well. Ohio State has gotten out to two early big leads so far in the tournament, only to then allow its opponent to get back into the contest. The Buckeyes will look to avoid that here, and they'll have to match pace obviously with the high-flying Wolverines. The pick: Ohio State averages 77.3 PPG, while Michigan averages 76.6. Each is adept defensively as well, but their strengths lie on the offensive end. And I believe it'll be these offenses on full display on Saturday afternoon as each side gets out and pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Buckeyes/Wolverines. |
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03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 133.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to a whole lot of "unders" of late, but I believe that has now pushed this O/U number a little bit too low. Both regular season matchups between these teams flew well "over" the number, and I absolutely expect that again to be the case here. The pick: Yes, these are two great defenses, but these offenses are loaded with talent as well. The trends/numbers support our theory this morning as well, as note that Maryland has seen the total go "over in seven of its last ten after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points in a SU/ATS victory, while Michigan has seen the total soar "over" in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Maryland/Michigan. |
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03-10-21 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 129 | Top | 71-50 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Horned Frogs are allowing 71.2 PPG. K-State and TCU play at slower paces, but all signs point to this opening conference tournament game being a bit more wide open. The pick: And that's because note, K-State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while TCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss to an opponent in which it scored 55 points or less in. This number is now a little too low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER K-State/TCU. |
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03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston College enters this game with a 4-15 record, losing by four to Miami on the road in its last game. Duke enters with an 11-11 record, falling by 18 points on the road in its previous outing. BC has been terrible this season, on both ends of the court. The pick: This has been Duke's worst year in memory as well, as it enters the Tournament on a three-game slide. Duke still has an oppportunity to make the Big Dance though if it can win a couple games in the Conference Tournament, so here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I think Duke doubles down on the defensive end now that the Tournament is here and I look for this total to sneak under once the final buzzer blares. This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER BC/Duke. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota UNDER 141 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State is 14-10 and it's coming off a win over UM Kansas on Sunday to advance. The Bison average only 69.3 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 67.2. The pick: South Dakota advanced by beating Western Illinois. The Coyotes average 75.6 pPG, while allowing 72. Both teams though have struggled with offensive consistency in this position, as evidenced by the fact that North Dakota State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 games following a SU win and on zero days rest, while South Dakota has seen the total go "under" in nine of its last 13 after scoring 85 points or more in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. I expect each team to double-down on the defensive end here, as each comes in tired after their respective victories on Sunday. This number is indeed high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER North Dakota State/South Dakota. |
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03-05-21 | Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 153 | Top | 70-89 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Both offenses can for sure "light it up," but this total is just too high in our opinion now. The total earlier in the year between these clubs was set at 147, and it did go "over" in the final seconds of that contest, but I don't see that happening again here. Ball State has scored at least 90 points over its last three games, but that offensive output is unsustainable now. The pick: Both teams are poor at rebounding, so second chance points are going to be hard to come by (also note that Toledo does a great job of limiting its fouling.) Ball State is second best in the conference as well in defending the three ball. When you add it all up, this total is indeed a little high, definitely considering how competitive I'm expecting it to be. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Ball State/Toledo. |
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa has won two a row to move to 9-5 in Big Ten play. Iowa most recently hammered Michigan State 88-58 on Saturday. Wisconsin though enters having lost two straight to fall go 9-6 in conference play. Most recently the Badgers lost 67-59 to Michigan. The Badgers will have to push the pace here though to keep up with Iowa's high-flying offense which enters averaging 87.4 PPG. The Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good on the defensive side though, allowing 73.5 PPG. The pick: The Badgers are averaging 70.3 PPG, while conceding 62.6. Wisconsin though should be noted that it's seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after two or more SU losses in a row. I look for Iowa to push the pace and for the hungry Badgers to respond. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Iowa/Wisconsin. |
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02-17-21 | Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 139 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 12-8 and East Tennessee State is 12-9. The Bears average 79.1 PPG, which is pretty good, but they allow 74.3, which isn't particularly great. East Tennessee State will try to take advantage here, as it averages 70 PPG, while allowing 65.1. The pick: The "over" though is 7-3 in the Bears last ten road games and I'm definitely anticipating a more wide open contest here, where each teams pushes the pace from the opening tip, until the final horn. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. Look for these two front runners to eclipse this posted total sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TTOAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Mercer/East Tennessee State. |
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02-12-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 141 | Top | 82-86 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to plenty of "overs" of late and I now think that this O/U line is a bit too high. North Kentucky has seen the total go "over" in six straight, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total go "over" in five straight (that was after seeing it go "under" in five straight.) The Phoenix average 71.4 PPG, while UNK averages 71.1. When you add those two figures up, we land right on this posted number essentially. So why is today's going "under?" The pick: Northern Kentucky is locked into third spot in the conference right now, while Green Bay is near the bottom. However, not only do I strongly feel that this O/U line is inflated, but note that UNK has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after two more straight ATS covers in a row, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total dip below in 14 of its last 20 home games after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the home side plays UNK tough here at home and I expect that to result finally in a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER UNK/Green Bay. |
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02-08-21 | Air Force v. UNLV OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a two-game slate. The firsg game went "under," but I expect more of a "shootout" here. The Runnin Rebels took the first game 68-58. UNLV is now 4-5 in league play. Air Force is 4-13 overall now and only 2-11 in conerence action. Air Force actually shot 47 percent from range in the loss, but only 43 percent from the rest of the field. Look for the Falcons to be much more efficient here. The pick: Bryce Hamilton had 22 points and 13 boards for the Rebels in the latest victory and I expect him to have another monster game tonight. Expect a much looser, faster-paced game here after the first, slower-paced, tighter affair. Finally note that Air Force has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 60 or less points in a SU road loss in its last outing. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Air Force/UNLV. |
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02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 18-1 Belmont Bruins are going to come out and push the pace here in my opinion vs. the 6-13 Eastern Illinois Panthers. The Bruins are off a win over Murray State and they come in having won 15 in a row. Belmont barely got by the Racers though 72-71, and because of that I expect the Bruins to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish tonight. The pick: Eastern Illinois also comes in with momentum, snapping a four-game slide with a 70-61 over SIUE. And that's significant, as Eastern Illinois has seen the total fly "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after scoring 70 or more points in a SU/ATS vicotry in its last outing. The stage is set for a "shootout" in this one, so the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Belmont/Eastern Illinois. |
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02-02-21 | Butler v. Marquette OVER 130 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams struggle with offensive consistency and are much better on the defensive end. Neither team has played to many "overs" of late, but I think that the value has now finally swung the other way on this total because of that. Butler is 5-9 and 4-7 in conference play and it enters off two straight losses. the Bulldogs won't be lacking for motivation. Most recently they lost 68-55 to Xavier. Marquette is 8-9 overall and it enter son a three-game losing streka, most recently falling to St. John's by a score of 75-73. One player for Butler to keep your eyes on today is Jair Bolden, who is averaging 12.6 points and 3.9 boards per game so far. The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the Golden Eagles is Cherry Garcia, who is averaging 12.6 points and 7.1 boards per game. I think each team is going to push the pace as each tries to earn an elusive victory. This number is definitely much too low, as note that Butler has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine conference road games after being held to 55 points or fewer in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. Look for this total to fly well over as it comes down the stretch. This is a 10* BIG-EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Butler/Marquette. |
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02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State OVER 132 | Top | 77-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring game here once it's all said and done. Murray State is 7-8 overall. The Racers had won two straight before falling to Belmont last time out. Southeast Missouri State is 6-10 this year. The Redhawks though are playing their best ball of the season right now, with consecutive wins over SIU Edwardsville and Eastern Illinois. Murray State will be especially motivated here to get back into the winners circle after its tight 72-71 loss to Belmont on Saturday. The pick: The Redhawks are coming off a 75-44 win and I think they can build off that offensive performance, as Nana Akenten had 13 points with five rebounds and two assists. These are two hungry teams and this total is just too low. Look for this one to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Murray State/Southeast Missouri State. |
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01-30-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 146 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Ball State is going to double down on the defensive end in my opinion after losing four of its last six games. The Cardinals are averaging 70.8 PPG, but conceding 73.2. To do that though, Ball State is going to have to upset Akron, which enters on a five-game win streak. The Zips average 78.7 PPG, while allowing only 70.4. The pick: Arkon's a favorite in this game for a reason. The Zips are going to shut down this offensively challenged Cardinals team in my opinion. Ball State has also seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back SU/ATS road losses, while Akron has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after a five games or longer ATS unbeaten streak. I think Ball State slows this one down and I expect this total to stay "under" once the final horn sounds. This a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ball State/Akron. |
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01-25-21 | Southern v. Alabama State OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team usually lights up the scoreboard on any given night, but I think these hungry sides will push the pace and eclipse this posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Southern Jaguars are 3-5 and the Alabama State Hornets are 1-5. Southern had won three straight before a loss to Alabama A&M last time out. Harrison Henderson was a standout with 21 points, ten boards and three assists. The pick: Brandon Battle had 17 points and ten boards in the Hornets 57-52 loss to Alcorn State. The Hornets though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring 55 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. I think Southern pushes the pace and I like the home side to keep pace. This number is just a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Southern/Alabama State. |
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01-16-21 | The Citadel v. VMI UNDER 167 | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: How do you make your O/U picks? What do you base it on? Do you simply look at what each team's point's average is, combined with how much they give up on average and try to figure it out like that? Knowing those stats is just one of the steps that I personally use when making an O/U pick. I also look at what each team has done leading up to that game. I look at the injury report. I look at the past history between each other. And I also look at trends. Both teams have been playing to a lot of high-scoring games of late, but that is helping in driving this posted total a little too high now in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that The Citadel has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after playing to four or more straight "overs," while VMI has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last six home games after allowing 80 or more points in a home loss in its last outing (lost 80-78 to Wofford). For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER The Citadel/VMI. |
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01-11-21 | Boise State v. Wyoming UNDER 149.5 | Top | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys are 7-2, but they return home for their first home game since December 17th. Most recently Wyoming splitting with Fresno State last weekend. The Broncos are 10-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play. This is a big game for the Cowboys, who I expect to double-down on the defensive end. BSU has won five-straight in this seris, so not only does Wyoming have motivation in its first home game back in a month, but it also plays with revenge. The pick: And that's important in my equation here, as I believe the last thing the Cowboys will want to do is to turn this one into a "track meet" vs. the high-flying Broncos. Note as well that Boise State has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last eight after a six games or longer SU unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Boise State/Wyoming. |
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01-02-21 | Morehead State v. Murray State OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up great as a wide-open "shootout." Morehead State comes in motivated to bounce back after a 75-61 loss to Missouri in its latest action. AJ Hicks was a bright spot in the loss with 18 points and seven assists. Overall the Eagles average 75.2 PPG. The pick: Murray State looks to build off its 110-82 win over Bethel in its latest action. Tevin Brown had 18 points. The Racers are averaging a blistering 81.2 PPG and while their defense has been decent, this is one of the best offenses that it's seen so far. I'm expecting an all out war, one which blasts past the posted number sooner, rather than later. This number is a little low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Morehead State/Murray State. |
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03-11-20 | California v. Stanford UNDER 128 | Top | 63-51 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The schools split a pair of games in the regular season, with each team winning on its home floor. Cal would need to win the Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Bears they come in with zero momentum after two straight losses to end the regular season. Stanford can't take any chances, although its still projected to be within the projected field for The Big Dance. The pick: Note that Cal is ranked 318th in the country with an average of 68 possessions per game, while Standford enters ranked 198th in the nation with an average of 70.6 possessions per contest. Neither of these Pac 12 teams pushes the pace, each instead relying on a lot of half court sets while on offense. Expect this one to stay well below the posted number. 10* PAC 12 TOURNAMENT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Cal/Stanford. |
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03-09-20 | UL - Lafayette v. Georgia Southern UNDER 151.5 | Top | 81-82 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cajuns are ranked eighth and the Eagles are ranked fifth. The Cajuns enter off a 73-66 win over Arkansas State in the first round. The Eagles got a bye into the second round, but ended the regular season with a 76-75 loss to Arkansas State. Georgia Southern swept the Cajuns in two meetings this year, with one game going well under, and one going well over. The Cajuns average 73.0 PPG and the Eagles average 75.2. Add those two totals up and you get 148.2. The pick: These teams are playing at Georgia Southern today and the last time these schools played here, they totaled 122 points. Both teams are poor shooting teams, as the Cajuns are ranked 284th in the country from thee floor, while the Eagles are ranked 175th. Considering all of the above factors, I expect this total to stay well under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/Georgia Southern. |
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03-07-20 | Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette UNDER 150.5 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a matchup of the 8th and 9th seeds in the Sun Belt Tournament and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to stay under the posted number. These teams split a pair of games this year, each winning on its home floor. The Red Wolves won 79-67 in December and then the Cajuns returned the favor with a 77-74 win in February. While both of those games went OVER the number, I do now finally feel that this conference contest will be more of a defensive affair. The pick: And the numbers/trends support that theory as well, as note that Arkansas State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten tournament games when the total is set at 150 or higher, while UL Lafayette has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 Conference Tournament home games as a favorite in the -2.5 to -5.5 points range. Expect each team to double down defensively now that it's Tournament time and a one and done format. 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Arkansas State/UL Lafayette. |
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03-03-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State OVER 144 | Top | 79-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan State enters having won three straight, while Penn State enters off a road loss to Iowa. The Hawkeyes failed to cover for a fourth straight game and clearly the home side will be eager to return to form here. The Spartans have two players scoring in double figures and they average 75.7 PPG and they allow 64.4. Penn State also has two players scoring in double figures and it averages 75.4 PPG and it allows 67.4. Both teams play at a faster pace than the average NCAA tempo and I expect an all out war from start to finish. The pick: Note as well that Michigan State has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten conference road games after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. I think the Nittany Lions come out and push the pace and MSU will have to match that tempo. This number is a little low. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER MSU/Penn State. |
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03-01-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 128 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Wisconsin is in a fight for second spot in the Big Ten. Minnesota will likely be in 12th in the upcoming Conference Tournament. Two weeks ago the Gophers upset the Badgers 70-52, so clearly the home side is looking to avenge that setback. Minnesota was impressive defensively though, holding the Badgers to just 28.4 percent. I think this one will result in a similar final combined score once it's all said and done. The pick: Besides, the numbers/trends support this theory as well. As note that Wisconsin has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten conference home games trying to revenge a same season road loss to an opponent of ten or more points, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below in nine of its last 14 conference road games as an underdog in the +4.5 to +7.5 points range. Both teams are extremely adept at launching up the three, but in this important conference game, I believe every shot will be contested, which will help in pushing this total well under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Minnesota/Wisconsin. |
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02-29-20 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 141.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas A&M had won three in a row, before a loss at home to Kentucky last time out. LSU won't be taking anything for granted here though as it desperately tries to get untracked after having lost five of its last seven overall. LSU posted an 89-85 OT win at Texas A&M earlier in the year, but I believe we'll be in for much more of a defensive affair in the re-match. The pick: The Aggies average 62.5 PPG, while LSU averages 80.2 PPG. That said, note that Texas A&M has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss vs. an opponent in which it gave up more than 85 points in, while LSU has seen the total dip under in seven of its last 11 conference home games when the total in the contest is set between 141 and 145. Expect these two hungry teams to fight tooth and nail and for this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST On the UNDER A&M/LSU. |
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02-28-20 | Princeton v. Brown OVER 138.5 | Top | 71-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Princeton comes in off a 65-62 win over Dartmouth on Saturday, while the Bears will be eager to back into the winners circle after their listless 63-45 loss to Cornell. Princeton beat Brown 73-54 at home in mid February, but I'm predicting a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Princeton will look to keep the foot on the gas here as it still sits one game back of Yale for top spot. The Bears were actually favored in their last game and they'll absolutely be out to atone for that poor effort, while also being extra motivated to avenge the earlier loss to Princeton as well. Situationally its sets up beautifully for a higher-scoring game. The pick: Note as well that Princeton's already seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown has seen the total fly over the number in ten of its last 12 as a home underdog of pick. Considering all of the above factors, I do indeed feel that this number is a tad low. 10* IVY-LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Princeton/Brown. |
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02-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan UNDER 131.5 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan has won seven of its last eight and it'll be playing in the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin will be out to pull off an upset here though as it enters having won five of its last six. UW hasn't won here since 2015 though. According to the KenPom rankings, these are two of the most efficient teams on the defensive end of the floor in the country, as Wisconsin is ranked 23rd and Michigan is ranked 17th. The pick: Additionally note that the "under" is 10-3 in the Badgers last 13 road games, while Michigan has seen the total dip below in eight of its last 11 conference road games after a four-games or longer unbeaten streak. This number is high. 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER. |
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02-26-20 | UCF v. Connecticut UNDER 137 | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF has lost two of its last three and its just 5-9 in AAC play. The Knights are going to have their hands full here trying to muster up much of an offensive attack in my opinion vs. the stingy Huskies. UConn enters off a 78-71 win over USF. UConn is jockeying for better positioning in the upcoming Conference tourmanent, which it will need to win to get an invite to the Big Dance. The pick: These two teams have played to the under in seven of their last ten in the series and everything once again points to a lower-scoring battle tonight. UConn only averages 71.7 PPG and UCF clocks in a 68.9 per game. Considering all of the above factors, I'm going to recommend a play on the "under." 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER UCF/UConn. |
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02-25-20 | TCU v. Iowa State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams scrapping for respectability on Tuesday night and I'm expecting an all out war from the opening tip until the final horn. TCU has won two of its last three, including a victory over WVU on the road last time out. Iowa State has lost seven of its last nine, including its most recent vs. Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs are definitely going to have their hands full here vs. the revenge minded home side, which fell 81-79 in OT at TCU earlier in the season (note TCU needed OT to beat WVU last time out as well.) Situationally this one definitely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "shootout" in my opinion. The pick: Both teams are two of the worst on the offensive side of things and I think each unit struggles here. Note as well that TCU has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 after an OT road victory, while Iowa State has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range. Considering all of the above info, I do indeed believe this number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER TCU/Iowa State. |
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02-23-20 | Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 149 | Top | 71-87 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami has struggled for the most of the year, but it comes in having won three of its last four. It'll want to play spoiler here too, as the Irish are now firmly on the bubble. Both teams are desperate for victories and I believe the sense of urgency that each team plays with today will help in driving this total well under the posted number once it's all said and done. The pick: Note as well that Miami Florida has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 conference road games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest in a victory (won 102-95 over Virgnia Tech in triple OT!), while Notre Dame has seen the total go under in seven of its last 11 conference home games as a favorite in the -4.5 to -7.5 points range. This number is too high. 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Miami Florida/Notre Dame. |
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02-22-20 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 140.5 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: After back-to-back losses, the Dukes will once again be pushed from start to finish vs. the high-flying Dayton Flyers. Duquesne most recently fell 70-67 at home to George Washington. Dayton enters off a 66-61 win over VCU, it's 15th straight victory. Dayton had to hold on for dear life the first time these team's met, eventually pulling away for a 73-69 road win on January 29th. The pick: Despite some recent lower-scoring games of late for each team, note that the Dukes still average 70.8 PPG, while the Flyers average 80.6. Duquesne has now seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as an underdog, while Dayton has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. I'm banking on a shootout, not a chess match. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Duquesne/Dayton. |
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02-20-20 | Oregon State v. Arizona OVER 139.5 | Top | 63-89 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona has won seven of its last nine. Oregon State is on the "bubble" for an NCAA berth. The Beavers enter relatively hot after winning three of their last five. The Beavers are going to have their hands full with this revenge minded home side though in my opinion. Oregon STate averages 72.2 PPG and it allows 67. The Wildcats are 8-4 in league play and they'll absolutely be out to avenge that earlier loss to the Beavers. Overall Arizona averages 78 PPG and it allows 65.1. The pick: Oregon State has also already seen the total go over the number in five of seven this year as the underdog and in six of eight on the road, while Arizona has seen the total fly above the posted number in three of four in trying try revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 75 points or more. Expect a faster-paced and ultimatley higher-scoring "shootout" here. 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Oregon State/Arizona. |
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02-19-20 | SMU v. Tulane UNDER 140.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulane has lost nine in a row. The Mustangs will have to be wary not to get "trapped" here. SMU entes 18-6 overall and 8-4 in conference play. but after a 73-72 OT win in Houston, I'm expecting a more methodical pace from the visiting side tonight. Last time out the Green Wave were smoked 82-57 by Wichita State and I have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack tonight either. The pick: Additionally note that SMU has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Tulane has seen the total stay under the number in ten of its last 13 after a loss by 15 points or more. This number is definitely high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER SMU/Tulane. |
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02-16-20 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 138.5 | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but I think today's competitive battle will fall under the number once it's all said and done. Memphis comes in hungry, as a three-game win streak has been followed by back-to-back losses. Overall the Tigers average 74.3 PPG. UConn's two-game win streak was snapped by a last second loss to SMU last time out and I think the Huskies are still collectively "caught up" on that heartbreaker. The pick: Note as well that Memphis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 Conference road games after back-to-back SU losses, while UConn has seen the total dip below in nine of its last 13 home games following a SU conference setback. I expect a war from start to finish. This number is a tad high. 10* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Memphis/Connecticut. |
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02-15-20 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas UNDER 143.5 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Mississippi State won the first meeting at home 74-70, but I expect a much tighter and lower-scoring affair this time around. Both teams are hungry for victories. Mississippi State plays its second straight on the road, as the Bulldogs enter off a poor 83-58 setback to Ole Miss. The struggling Razoracks can empathize, as they've lost three in a row, including an 82-61 loss to Tennessee last time out. Both teams are clearly on the bubble as far as the tournament is concerned. Both are struggling offensively as well. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a defensive affair, rather than a run-and-gun shootout. The pick: Both teams are conceding less than 67 PPG this year. Arkansas averages only 65 PPG and Mississippi State averages 69.7. The numbers also don't match up here as far as I'm concerned. When taking into account all of the above info, I definitely believe this number is much too high. 10* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Mississippi State/Arkansas. |
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02-14-20 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Northern Kentucky UNDER 147 | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The IUPUI Jags have lost four in a row and reside in the basement of the Horizon League, while NKU has won four straight and is looking to lock down the top spot in the conference. The Jags are in a tough conference no doubt, coming in averaging 70 PPG. Northern Kentucky is vastly superior on both ends of the court, but note that it allows just 65 PPG, including ranking 12th in 3-point percentage allowed at under 29 percent. The pick: In fact the Norse have allowed just 70 or more points just once during their recent four-game win streak. The Jags only allow 71 PPG this year, so when you add it all up, I do indeed believe that this total is much too high. 9* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER IUPUI/Northern Kentucky. |
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02-14-20 | Yale v. Princeton UNDER 137.5 | Top | 88-64 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Both team's are 5-1 and at the top of the Ivy League Standings. Suffice it to say, I expect an all out war from start to finish, where every possession is contested. After falling to Harvard, Yale bounced back to crush Dartmouth by 18 at home in its latest action, while Princeton bounced back from a loss to Cornell to beat Columbia by seven. Yale has dominated this series of late, including in Princeton. The home side has the added motivation of revenge here as well. The Bulldogs rank in the Top 40 in the nation in allowing just 64 PPG. Not to be outdone, the Tigers have conceded just 65 points or less in six of their last eight overall. The pick: Princeton has seen the total go under in four of its last five home games overall, allowing just 62 points in those contests. If the Tigers have any hopes of pulling off the upset today, clearly it'll have to be because of a strong defensive performance. The stage is set for an all out war from start to finish. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Yale/Princeton. |
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02-12-20 | Bucknell v. Navy OVER 129.5 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Bucknell plays with revenge here after Navy scored the win on its home floor earlier in the season. In that game Navy was led by 20 points from Cam Davis, while Bucknell was paced by 18 from John Meeks. The Bison have dropped four straight, so they definitely won't be lacking for motiation here. Navy leads the Patriot League in scoring defense, but I expect teh visitors to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: Additionally note that Bucknell has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 after four or more straight conference setbacks, while Navy has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last eight home games where the total is set between 129.5 and 133 points. This number is a tad low. 10* OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION on the OVER Bucknell/Navy. |
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02-11-20 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State OVER 122.5 | Top | 59-63 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that trend ends tonight. The NIU Huskies are 15-9 overall and 8-3 in league play, while the Ball State Cardinals are 13-10 overall and 6-4 in the MAC. NIU comes in off a 57-54 win over Kent State, while Ball State will be eager to return to the winners cirlce after a 68-64 loss to WMU last time out. The pick: I'll point out though that NIU has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year after playing two straight games as the underdog, while Ball State has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three off an upset loss as a favorite. As mentioned off the top, neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but that's just driven this total well below where it really should be set in my opinion. This number is indeed a little low, play the over. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Northern Illinois/Ball State. |
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02-10-20 | Florida State v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seminoles come in at 20-3 and off a 99-81 win over Miami, while Duke is 20-3, barely holding on for a 98-96 win over UNC on the road in OT last time out. While each team played to a high-scoring affair last time out, I think each doubles down defensively in this high-profile, nationally televised game on Monday night. FSU will be looking to clean up its play, as despite winning last time out, it did go on to commit 19 turnovers. Duke had its hands full as well in its win, as it trailed by 9 at half time. The pick: Situationally I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair, but also note that FSU has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Duke has seen the total fall under the number in three of its last four after two no-covers where the team won SU as a favorite. This number is a little high. 10* PLAY ON THE UNDER FSU/Duke. |
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02-08-20 | Arkansas v. Missouri UNDER 134 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off losses and I believe this will help in creating a very tightly checked/competitive under on Saturday afternoon. Arkansas comes in off a 79-76 OT loss to Auburn, while Missouri fell 68-51 to Texas A&M. Overall though Arkansas averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 65.3, while Missouri averages 65.3 PPG, while allowing 63.5. The pick: Note as well that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games following an OT loss in which it allowed 78 points or more in, while Missouri has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 home after scoring 53 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Arkansas/Missouri. |
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02-05-20 | Southern Illinois v. Evansville UNDER 128 | Top | 64-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. The pick: Note as well that SIU has seen the total go under the number in 24 of its last 35 after playing a road game, while Evansville has seen the total dip under in seven of ten vs. conference opponents already this season. With the home side expected to risk life and limb to get off the 0-10 losing streak, expect a slower-paced battle, where each possession is challenged. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER SIU/Evansville. |
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01-25-20 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 129 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win are going to push each other from start to finish in my opinion and ultimately I believe that this frenetic pace will help in pushing this total well above the posted number. Washington is 12-8 and Colorado is 15-4. The Huskies come to town off two straight losses, but coming by a a combined four points, most recently falling 67-66 to Utah. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.4 PPG and they're allowing 62.8. The Buffaloes have won three of four. Overall they average 70.4 PPG and they allow 61.7. The pick: Note though that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back losses, while Colorado has seen the total fly over in six of its last seven after having won three out of its last four SU. On paper this looks like it would be a defensive affair, but I believe these Pac 12 contendors push the tempo. THis is a very low total and I believe it flies over sooner, rather than later. Play the over. 10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Huskies/Buffalos. |
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01-14-20 | San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 127 | Top | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a lower-scoring battle between the 17-0 SDSU Aztecs and the 5-11 Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldog and Aztecs have already played once this season and SDSU won by nine points at home on January 1st. Overall SDSU averages 75.9 PPG, but it's been getting the job done most nights with its amazing defense, which allows just 57 PPG. So that's not the greatest news for Fresno State today, which enters on a four-game losing streak and which averages only 69.6 PPG. The Bulldogs though have been fantastic defensively, allowing just 66.7 PPG. The pick: Note as well that SDSU has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite, while Fresno State has seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home dog. Everything points to a lower-scoring war between these conference foes. 10* CONF-TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER SDSU/Fresno State. |
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01-11-20 | Washington v. California OVER 131 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Huskies are just 1-2 in conference play and they're coming off a listless 61-55 road loss to Stanford. Cal is 1-1 in league play so far and it'll be looking to build off a win over WSU in its latest action, a victory which snapped a four-game losing streak. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but neither will be lacking for motivation in this big Pac 12 matchup on Friday night. Washington averages 72.4 PPG and the Bears average 64.9. Both teams are mediocre at best on the defensive side though and each is desperate for a victory. I believe from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." The pick: Note as well that Washington has seen the total soar over the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after a loss in which it scored 55 points or less in, while Cal has seen the total go over the number in seven of its lat ten home games following a conference SU/ATS victory. Everything points to a high-scoring "over." 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Washington/Cal. |
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01-09-20 | North Alabama v. Liberty OVER 123.5 | Top | 52-63 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Liberty returns home to play in front of the home town crowd for the first time in 38 days. This is the Flames first conference home game and I expect them to push the pace from start to finish. The Flames get the job done on the defensive end by allowing only 51.8 PPG, but I believe tonight's contest we'll see the home side open things up. North Alabama enters off an 81-65 loss at home to North Florida, which would go on to expose the Lions perimeter defensive play by nailing 13 3-pointers. The pick: Note as well that North Alabama has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 road games following a home loss in which it allowed 80 or more points in, while Liberty has seen the total soar over in 15 of its last 24 after a three games or longer road-trip. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER North Alabama/Liberty. |
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11-16-19 | Columbia v. Virginia OVER 119.5 | Top | 42-60 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia is 2-0 and it takes on Ivy League member Columbia today, which is 1-2 to start. The Lions failed to qualify for the Ivy League confernece tournament last year after finishing 10-18 overall. Columbia is led by dynamic guard Mike Smith, who is averaging 21.3 PPG. Overall the Lions have five players who average between 8 and 10 points. The pick: The Cavaliers lost many faces from last year's NCAA Tournament winning squad, but so far it's dominated early, beating Syracuse 48-34 and James Madison 65-34. Both games have fallen well below the posted number, but I think finally the Cavs put the foot on the gas on the offensive end here. Note that Columbia has seen the total go over in seven of its last eight after a home victory, while Virginia has seen the total sneak over in 13 of its last 21 after allowing 50 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad low, play the over. 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the OVER Columbia/Virginia. |
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11-10-19 | James Madison v. Virginia OVER 124.5 | Top | 34-65 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0 to open the new season. James Madison has plenty of experience and its offense was the main story line after crushing the Charlotte 49ers in its opener. Virginia looked sharp in its opening night road win in Syracuse, holding the Orange to just 34 points. The Dukes looked decent defensively vs. Charlotte, but I think they'll have their hands full with the defending champs on their own floor. The pick: Virginia CAN NOT be too happy with its win over Syracuse, as it shot only 40 percent from the floor, went a poor 4 of 25 from range, while also committing 15 turnovers. The Cavs are going to be looking to get their offense untracked here and with the home side opening things up, I look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER James Madison/Virgina. |
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11-06-19 | Virginia v. Syracuse OVER 130 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia is the defending national champion, so clearly Syracuse will be out to push the pace and get the Cavs "out of their comfort zone." The Orange actually enter the season "firing on all cylindres," winning two exhibition games and then going to Italy and winning all four games over there as well. This early chemistry in my opinion is going to help in pushing this total over the number. The pick: Virginia has new faces, with six players missing from last year's suffocating defensive squad. The Cavs got the job done last year by slowing things down, but I have a hard time seeing this group duplicating that feat this season. And especially on Opening night vs. this Orange side which is playing at an extremely high level before the season has even started. When you add it all up, this one has "over" written all over it. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Virginia/Syracuse. |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118 | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation go head to head here and I think that points will not surprisingly be at a premium in this one. Texas Tech has advanced by beating UNT 72-57, and then by posting impressive defensive performances over Buffalo, Michigan and high-flying Gonzaga. The Red Raiders then capped off their journey with the 61-51 win over Michigan State in the Final Four. Virginia was knocked out of the first round last year, but this season it continues to ride it’s No. 1 ranked defense. Virginia has navigated some close calls as well to get here, including over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and the thriller over Auburn with no time left on the clock. The pick: Take it for what you all as well, but Texas Tech has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of ten neutral four games already this year and in four of its last five when playing with one or less days rest, while Virginia has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 17 after a non-conference game and in not surprisingly 11 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. UVA/TTU UNDER 10* play |
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04-04-19 | Lipscomb v. Texas UNDER 143 | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Championship Game of the NIT. The Bison come in off an impressive 71-64 win over high-flying Wichita State, while The Longhorns smashed No. 1 seed TCU 58-44. These two schools got to this point behind some extremely aggressive defensive play and I don’t expect anything to change here. Note that Lipscomb held the Shockers to just 35 percent shooting, while Texas held TCU to only 28 percent from the floor. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Lipscomb has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of ten already this season after three or more SU wins, while Texas has seen the total dip “under” in 16 of 24 as a favorite this year. This number is high, play the “under.” Texas/Lipscomb UNDER 10* play |
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04-02-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 138.5 | Top | 58-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the semi finals of the NIT and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Texas advanced by beating South Dakota State, Xavier and Colorado, while TCU got the better of Houston State, Nebraska and Creighton. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are of course very familiar with each other. Note that TCU won both meetings in Big 12 action this year. Both games were low-scoring battles, with TCU winning the first meeting 65-61, followed by a 69-56 score in the second. Everything points to another low-scoring affair here in my opinion. Texas comes in off a stellar defensive performance over Colorado, winning 68-55 and holding the Buffs to just 32.7 percent shooting. TCU crushed Creighton 71-58, holding it to 39.2 percent from the floor. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four neutral court games it’s played in already this year, while TCU has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 following a home victory. This number is high, play the “under.” Texas/TCU UNDER 10* play |
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03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU OVER 145 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-17-19 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas Arlington is off a 67-58 win over Georgia Southern, while Georgia State won 59-46 over Texas State to advance. The Panthers won both regular season meetings over the Mavericks. Each team comes in off a lower-scoring victory and I’m expecting a similar battle here as well. The Mavericks held the Eagles to just 36.7 percent shooting last tie out. UTA needed its defense to step up though, as the offense connected on just 39.7 percent of its chances in the victory. Overall UTA has averaged 69.4 PPG and allowed 69.7. Georgia State averages 77.2 PG and it allows 73.2. During league play though the Panthers have averaged 76.5 PPG and they allow 72.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UTA has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game, while Georgia State has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 11 after allowing 48 points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-12-19 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams enter off poor campaigns. The Demon Deacons were 4-14 in ACC action, while Miami finished 5-13 in conference play. Last year both teams were ousted from the Conference tournament after the first game, but this season one of the two will survive to see the next round. These teams played two games and they split those, with one going “over” and the other going “under.” But during Wake Forest’s three-game losing skid, its failed to score 60 points, most recently falling 65-57 to FSU. The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an 84-70 loss to VT. Two inconsistent, yet hungry teams collide and I believe that this will help in resulting in a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wake Forest has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as an underdog, while Miami Florida has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 13 as a neutral court favorite or pick. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-09-19 | Duke v. North Carolina OVER 166 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game. The Blue Devils will be without Zion Williamson in this one, but they’re out for revenge after falling to UNC earlier in the year. UNC won’t be rolling over obviously as it comes in on top form having won six straight. Despite what happens in this one, each is expected to make a deep run in the upcoming tournament and both have a legitimate shot at winning the upcoming conference tournament. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a classic high-scoring “shootout.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Duke has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten as an underdog (including in both games this season,) while UNC has seen the total soar “over” in three of its last four as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-09-19 | Marshall v. Rice UNDER 171.5 | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Marshall comes in having lost five of six. The Owls have been terrible of late as well, going just 2-6 in their last eight. Rice will be “gassed” here as well after falling in double OT to WKU on Thursday. The Herd looked horrible in their most recent 78-51 loss at UNT on Thursday. From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring battle in my opinion between these two hungry/desperate teams. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five after two or more consecutive losses, while Rice has seen the total go “under” in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss against a conference rival. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech UNDER 133.5 | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: TCU comes to town off a 55-50 home win over Florida, while Texas Tech comes in off a hard-fought 67-64 home victory over Arkansas. TCU is 3-3 in league play, while the Red Raiders are 4-3. These are two defensive minded clubs and I believe that points will indeed be at a premium here. TCU’s offense was poor in the win over the Gators, as the team shot just 36 percent from the floor collectively. The Horned Frogs average 76.9 PPG and they allow just 66. The Red Raiders average only 70.0 PPG, but they make up for it on the either end of the floor, allowing just 56.4 PPG, ranked second in the country only behind Virginia. The pick: Note that TCU has seen the total go under in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and in five of its last six on the road, while TT has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke UNDER 139.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia will look to build off its impressive 81-59 win over Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavs were efficient 58.5 percent from the floor collectively. Virginia is 16-0 this year. Overall the Cavs allow just 51.7 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils come in off an exhausting 95-91 OT loss to Syracuse in its latest action and I think it’ll be “dog tired” here after that marathon. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring under. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though by Virginia has seen the total go “under” the number in its last eight as an underdog and in 19 of its last 26 on the road, while Duke has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 14 as a favorite this year and in seven of nine at home. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* Under |
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01-12-19 | Washington State v. Utah UNDER 154 | Top | 70-88 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. WSU will be eager to atone for a poor 92-60 loss in Colorado on Thursday, while Utah will also be out to bounce back after a 69-53 loss at home to Washington. Utah has won nine straight in this series, including a 77-70 road victory last February 17th. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score here as well. As stated above, I think from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Note as well that WSU has already seen the total go “under” in three of its last four on the road and in ten of its last 15 off a road loss vs. a conference rival of more than ten points, while Utah has seen the total dip “under” in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* TOTAL OF MONTH |
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01-09-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State OVER 148.5 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is going to be lacking for motivation today and I believe this competitive battle will produce a lot of points. Miami Florida clearly can’t be happy at 8-6 overall and 0-2 in ACC action. FSU is a much better 12-2, but the Seminoles enter this one off a poor conference opening 65-52 loss to Virginia on Saturday. With both teams looking to break back into the win column, I believe that from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring “shootout.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Hurricanes have seen the total go “over” the number in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog or pick and in six of eight already this season vs. teams with winning records, while FSU has seen the total go “over” in five of seven at home this season and in four of its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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01-02-19 | Seton Hall v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the top teams in the nation collide and I think that points will be plentiful. The Pirates enter off a 76-74 home win over St. John’s, while the Musketeers will be eager to keep the momentum rolling after a 74-65 home win over DePaul. Seton Hall comes in at 10-3 and it plays with “double revenge” here after dropping both contests in the series last year. The Pirates average 75.5 PPG and they allow 69.6. Xavier though is 7-1 at home and it averages 75.4 PPG, while allowing 70.1. The pick: I’m expecting a wide open, faster paced game. Take it for what you will as well, but Seton Hall has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 14 as a road dog or pick, while Xavier has seen the total go “over” in 21 of its last 36 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-27-18 | UMKC v. Creighton UNDER 155.5 | Top | 53-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-9 UMKC Kangaroos are at Creighton to take on the 8-4 Blue Jays and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The Kangaroos went into the X-Mas break with an impressive 95-59 win over Elon on Saturday, going 16 of 26 from behind the arc. The defensive performance by UMKC was likely even more impressive though. The Blue Jays destroyed sub-division Coe College 110-60 in their latest action. Creighton though faces a much more difficult defensive task today. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kangaroos have seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last nine road games after a victory in which they scored 95 points or more in, while the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” in eight of their last 11 after scoring 105 points or more in a 20 points or more blowout victory in their previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Rider v. Washington State UNDER 168 | Top | 80-94 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. After a slow start, the 4-3 Rider Broncs have won four of their last six. Overall they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 74. Jordan Allen is averaging 14 points and 2.9 boards. Rider though won’t be taking anything for granted here as it’s lost three of its last four road games. The Cougars are averaging 83.5 PPG and they’re allowing 75. Robert Franks leads the nightly charge with 24.4 PPG. The Cougars are tough at home and they come in having won eight their last 12 in friendly confines. With the visitors desperate for a victory and not wanting to turn this into a “track meet” with the home side, I think from a situational stand point that it sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring “under.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Rider has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last ten after failing to cover three of its last four ATS, while WSU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 after allowing 85 points or more in its previous contest. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play. |
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12-16-18 | Central Arkansas v. New Mexico UNDER 167 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Central Arkansas is 4-5 and it’s lost five straight on the road. New Mexico is just 4-4 and it’ll be just as hungry for a victory here. Two hungry teams collide and in my opinion, this one sets up as more of a defensive affair than a high-scoring shootout. Central Arkansas was most recently destroyed 68-55 by Missouri. Eddy Kayouloud was Central Arkansas’ high scorer with 19 points on 7-for-13 shooting. New Mexico comes in off an 87-84 win over the lowly CSUN Matadors. The pick: The Lobos have been decent offensively, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with a Bears team desperate to reverse its fortunes on the road. Take it for what you will as well, but Central Arkansas has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine following a four games or more road losing streak. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-15-18 | SE Missouri State v. The Citadel UNDER 166 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Southeast Missouri State will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after falling to 5-5 with an 83-73 defeat to Southern Illinois in their latest action. Ledarrius Brewer of the Redhawks would lead the way with 17 points and four boards. The Citadel comes in having won five straight after crushing sub-division Johnson and Wales 127-93 last time out. But with the step up in the level of competition this week, I think the Bulldogs offense comes back down to Earth tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SE Missouri State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine road games after a loss in which it gave up 82 or more points in, while The Citadel has seen the total go “under” in six of its last eight after scoring 125 points or more in a win in its latest outing. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-12-18 | Portland State v. BYU UNDER 165 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Wednesday night and I think points will be at a premium. Portland State is 5-3 and BYU is 7-4. In the Vikings most recent win over Portland, Holland Woods posted 27 points and six assists in the eventual 87-78 win over the Pilots. BYU comes in off a hard-fought win over Utah, led by 31 points and 11 boards from Yoeli Childs. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland State has seen the total go “under” the number in both of its “true” road games this year, while BYU has seen the total go “under” in 15 of its last 24 after a win by 15 points or more. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* |
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12-10-18 | Morehead State v. Marshall UNDER 168 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Morehead State is 3-5 and Marshall is 5-4. Two hungry non-conference sides collide on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Morehead State comes in off a blowout of lowly Chillicothe, but it’ll have its hands full with a much more talented Herd side. In the win for the Eagles, Djimon Henson had 23 points, three boards and three assists. Marshall’s struggled against the “better” competition it’s faced and in its most recently loss to Toledo, Jon Elmore was a bright spot with 21 points. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle between these two focused sides. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Morehead State has seen the total go “under” the number in its last two games when playing with seven or more days worth of rest, while Marshall has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 75 points or more in three straight outings. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* |
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12-09-18 | Ball State v. Evansville UNDER 152 | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Ball State is 6-3, while Evansville is 4-4. The Cardinals enter red hot having won five straight, most recently a 75-69 win over Loyola Chicago. Ball State is averaging 81.1 PPG, while Evansville averages 77.8. While these two hungry sides don’t normally have a difficult time scoring, the numbers suggest a competitive defensive battle today. The pick: As note that Ball State has seen the total go “under” the number in its last two games after scoring 75 points or more in five straight contests, while Evansville has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 14 vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-04-18 | West Virginia v. Florida OVER 142.5 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a battle of the SEC for the Big 12 in the Jimmy V Classic and while these teams are very adept defensively, I think this one will sneak “over” the number once the final horn sounds. The Gators come in off a 98-66 beatdown of North Florida, while WVU enters on top form having won four straight. Florida averages 71.7 PPG and it allows 62.4. WVU averages 86.4 PPG and it allows 75.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WVU has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four vs. the SEC and in four of its last five neutral court games when the total is set between 140 to 144.5, while Florida has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last 11 after a cover as a double digit favorite. Play the the “over.” 10* |
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11-26-18 | North Dakota State v. Gonzaga OVER 152 | Top | 60-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: North Dakota State is 2-4 and Gonzaga is 6-0. Most recently the Bison fell 79-61 to East Tennessee State this weekend. Overall NDSU is averaging 71.8 PG and allowing 72.5. The Bulldogs are a whopping 97 PPG and allowing 76. The pick: The Bulldogs are allowing teams to score points, only because they’re dominating on the offensive end this season. I look for that trend to continue here. Take it for what you will as well, but Gonzaga has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 20 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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11-22-18 | Tulsa v. Nevada OVER 152.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa is 4-0. Nevada is also 4-0. These two surging teams collide in the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be plentiful. The Wolfpack enter off a 90-55 win over California Baptist. Jordan Brown led the way in that one with 16 points. Overall Nevada is averaging 86.5 PPG. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 79.2 PPG, led by Martins Igbanu with 15 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tulsa has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Nevada has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 12 tournament games. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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11-19-18 | UC-Irvine v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 140 | Top | 65-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: UC Irvine enters this tournament game with a 4-0 record, while UTSA will be desperate to get off the schneid after an 0-3 start. UC Irvine comes in off a strong win over Texas A&M. The Anteaters have all five starters back from last year, led by Tommy Rutherford with 10.1 points and six boards per game. UTSA has three returning starter, led by Keaton Wallace with 11.4 PPG. The pick: From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair, as UTSA can ill afford to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the high-flying Anteaters. UC Irvine comes in complacent in this neutral site affair and it all adds up to a lower-scoring “under.” |
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11-14-18 | Marquette v. Indiana OVER 149 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win collide on Wednesday night and I believe points are going to be plentiful. Both teams come in with confidence after two straight wins to open the year. Marquette was picked to finish second in the Big East behind Villanova. Markus Howard had 37 points in the Golden Eagles’ 92-59 win over Bethune-Cookman. Indiana destroyed Montana State 80-35 in its most recent action. Romeo Langford is averaging 15.5 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette has seen the total go “over” the number in 22 of its last 30 non-conference games, while Indiana has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last eight home games when the total is set between 145 to 149.5. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova is just one win away from its second national championship in three seasons but the 35-4 Wildcats are well aware that their opponent in Monday's NCAA Tournament title game comes in Michigan: The Wolverines won their final six regular-season games, followed by a 3-for-3 run in the Big Ten Tournament and now own five wins in the Big Dance. Moritz Wagner (14.6 & 7.1) was scintillating against Loyola-Chicago with 24 points and 15 rebounds while shooting 10 of 16. The 6-11 Wagner became only the third player to post at least 20 points and 15 rebounds in a national semifinal game and the first since 1983, when Hakeem Olajuwon did it (Larry Bird did so in 1979). Charles Matthews (13.1 & 5.6) added 17 points but fellow starting guards Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12.6-3.9-3.3) and Zavier Simpson (7.3 & 3.7 APG) combined for just seven points on 2-of-17 shooting. They MUST be better against the Wildcats' talented backcourt. Sixth-man Robinson, checks in averaging 9.5 PPG and let's not forget freshman Jordan Poole (6.2), whose 'miracle 3' beat Houston. Michigan does not score all that much (73.9 PPG ranks 167th) but the Wolverines know how to play defense, allowing 62.9 PPG to rank 8th-best in the nation. Michigan has given up more than 63 points only once in this tournament. The Wolverines harassed Loyola into 1-of-10 on three-point shots on the game (season lows in three-point attempts and makes), contested 24 of their 27 second-half FG attempts, plus forced 17 turnovers. Villanova: The Wildcats were a good three-point shooting team in 2015-16 when they won the national championship but they have taken it to a new level this season. The Wildcats set a Final Four record with 18 three-pointers in Saturday's semifinal victory over Kansas (the previous NCAA Tourney single-game record of 13 had been held for 31 years by UNLV's 1987 team) and have made at least 13 three-pointers in four of their five wins in this event. Villanova has already broken the NCAA Tourney record for made threes (previously held by Shaka Smart’s 2011 VCU team) and have broken the season record for threes made by VMI's 2006-07 team. Wooden Award finalist Jalen Brunson (19.2 & 4.7 APG) is leading the way for the top scoring team in the nation (86.8 PPG), one which shoots 50.1% overall (5th), including 40.1% on threes (12th). Jay Wright's team really goes just six-seep but it's quite a group of six. Starting along with Brunson are multi-talented swingman Mikal Bridges (17.6 & 5.3), 6-9 redshirt freshman Omari Spellman (10.9 & 7.9), bruising 6-7, 250-pound Eric Paschall (10.7 & 5.2) and guard Phil Booth (10.3). 6-5 small forward Donte DiVencenzo (Sixth Man of the year in Big East) comes off the bench to average 13.0-4.7-3.5. The pick: Villanova is and clearly should be the favorite but underestimate the Wolverines at your own peril. John Beilein’s team has been digging in defensively all season on the stop end all season, as ball screens are nullified, cutters are covered and open looks are denied. The Wolverines have especially been unrelenting on shots inside the arc, despite not owning a true rim protector. Michigan's unlikely season continues tonight (Wolverines were a modest 19-7 before ripping off 14 straight wins!) and while I'm not about to call for Michigan to capture its second national championship (only other one came in 1989), I expect Michigan to contain 'Nova's high-scoring team. Michigan’s defense bears a significant resemblance to a physical Providence team which gave the the Wildcats all they could handle, beating in mid-February at home and forcing OT in the Big East Tourney finale at MSG. Then again, 'Nova has been playing impressive defense as of late as well, holding seven of its last 10 opponents under 70 points. Make the Under a 10* play. The set-up: Villanova is just one win away from its second national championship in three seasons but the 35-4 Wildcats are well aware that their opponent in Monday's NCAA Tournament title game comes in Michigan: The Wolverines won their final six regular-season games, followed by a 3-for-3 run in the Big Ten Tournament and now own five wins in the Big Dance. Moritz Wagner (14.6 & 7.1) was scintillating against Loyola-Chicago with 24 points and 15 rebounds while shooting 10 of 16. The 6-11 Wagner became only the third player to post at least 20 points and 15 rebounds in a national semifinal game and the first since 1983, when Hakeem Olajuwon did it (Larry Bird did so in 1979). Charles Matthews (13.1 & 5.6) added 17 points but fellow starting guards Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12.6-3.9-3.3) and Zavier Simpson (7.3 & 3.7 APG) combined for just seven points on 2-of-17 shooting. They MUST be better against the Wildcats' talented backcourt. Sixth-man Robinson, checks in averaging 9.5 PPG and let's not forget freshman Jordan Poole (6.2), whose 'miracle 3' beat Houston. Michigan does not score all that much (73.9 PPG ranks 167th) but the Wolverines know how to play defense, allowing 62.9 PPG to rank 8th-best in the nation. Michigan has given up more than 63 points only once in this tournament. The Wolverines harassed Loyola into 1-of-10 on three-point shots on the game (season lows in three-point attempts and makes), contested 24 of their 27 second-half FG attempts, plus forced 17 turnovers. Villanova: The Wildcats were a good three-point shooting team in 2015-16 when they won the national championship but they have taken it to a new level this season. The Wildcats set a Final Four record with 18 three-pointers in Saturday's semifinal victory over Kansas (the previous NCAA Tourney single-game record of 13 had been held for 31 years by UNLV's 1987 team) and have made at least 13 three-pointers in four of their five wins in this event. Villanova has already broken the NCAA Tourney record for made threes (previously held by Shaka Smart’s 2011 VCU team) and have broken the season record for threes made by VMI's 2006-07 team. Wooden Award finalist Jalen Brunson (19.2 & 4.7 APG) is leading the way for the top scoring team in the nation (86.8 PPG), one which shoots 50.1% overall (5th), including 40.1% on threes (12th). Jay Wright's team really goes just six-seep but it's quite a group of six. Starting along with Brunson are multi-talented swingman Mikal Bridges (17.6 & 5.3), 6-9 redshirt freshman Omari Spellman (10.9 & 7.9), bruising 6-7, 250-pound Eric Paschall (10.7 & 5.2) and guard Phil Booth (10.3). 6-5 small forward Donte DiVencenzo (Sixth Man of the year in Big East) comes off the bench to average 13.0-4.7-3.5. The pick: Villanova is and clearly should be the favorite but underestimate the Wolverines at your own peril. John Beilein’s team has been digging in defensively all season on the stop end all season, as ball screens are nullified, cutters are covered and open looks are denied. The Wolverines have especially been unrelenting on shots inside the arc, despite not owning a true rim protector. Michigan's unlikely season continues tonight (Wolverines were a modest 19-7 before ripping off 14 straight wins!) and while I'm not about to call for Michigan to capture its second national championship (only other one came in 1989), I expect Michigan to contain 'Nova's high-scoring team. Michigan’s defense bears a significant resemblance to a physical Providence team which gave the the Wildcats all they could handle, beating in mid-February at home and forcing OT in the Big East Tourney finale at MSG. Then again, 'Nova has been playing impressive defense as of late as well, holding seven of its last 10 opponents under 70 points. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The East Regional final will feature the top-seeded 33-4 Villanova Wildcats against the 27-9 and third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. Villanova seems determined to shoot its way to the Final Four, as the Wildcats connected on 13-of-24 from three-point range in Friday's 90-78-point win over No. 5 West Virginia. 'Nova us now making 47.8 percent from the arc in its NCAA wins and has drained 432 three-pointers on the season (just 10 shy of the single-season record held by VMI back in the 2006-07 season),.In contrast, Texas Tech has made just 15 threes and is shooting only 31.3 percent from long range in this year's tourney. However, the Red Raiders have yet to allow more than 66 points in any of their three wins, holding their opponents to 63.7 PPG on a modest 41.1 percent from the floor, including only 33.3% on threes. Villanova: The Wildcats are seeking their second national title in the last three years and their third all-time..They survived a slug-fest against former Big East opponent West Virginia on Friday, despite 16 TOs vs "Press Virginia." Jalen Brunson (19.3 & 4.6 APG) led with 27 points and 6-9 freshman Omari Spellman (10.8 & 7.9) added 18 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocked shots and two steals. Brunson has made at least half his shots in six of the last seven games, while the 6-6 Mikal Bridges (18.0 & 5.4) has done so in 11 of his last 12 games. Senior guard Phil Booth (10.5), one of the stars from Villanova's national championship game victory two years ago, is just 2-of-11 from the floor over the last two games and 5-of-20 over the last four contests (a problem?).. The pick: Villanova is looking for its second trip to the Final Four in three years, while Texas Tech is playing in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history, As pointed about above, this is a battle of opposing views on how the game is played. Texas Tech freshman Jarrett Culver leads Texas Tech with 54 three-pointers and by comparison, Villanova's Booth has 52 three-pointers to rank fifth on the Wildcats in made threes. I won't buck Villanova but the Texas Tech D is capable of slowing down Jay Wright’s nation’s-best 87.0 PPG offense (six double digit scorers). However, Tech's Chris Beard is proving quickly he's one of the nation's upcoming coaching stars. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke OVER 133 | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 83 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Syracuse Orange may have been given the last available at-large bid but no one is dissing Syracuse theses days, surely not the Duke Blue Devils. The 11th-seeded Orange meet the second-seeded Blue Devils tonight at the CenturyLink Center in Omaha in Midwest Regional Sweet 16 action. Syracuse (now 23-13) pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the NCAA Tournament so far, knocking off third-seeded Michigan State 55-53 this past Sunday. Boeheim's famed zone defense held Michigan State to just five points over the final 5:43 of regulation, as the Spartans shot just 25.8% for the game, including 8-of-37 on threes. Duke warmed up with a win over Iona, then put together one of its best performances of the season, defeating the No. 7-seed Rhode Island Rams 87-62 this past Saturday. Duke dominated on both ends of the court, shooting 56.9% from the floor (including 10-of-21 on threes), while holding Rhode Island to just 39.7% shooting. Syracuse. The Orange have been winning games this tourney (three, already!) by slowing down the pace and playing outstanding defense. Syracuse has scored just 60, 57 and 55 points in its three wins but has allowed just 56, 52 and 53 points in those contests. The Orange feature just three players capable of scoring. Guard Battle leads with 19.2 PPG, 6-8 freshman Brissett adds 14.9 & 8.4 plus PG Howard checks in at 14.6 PPG and 4.7 APG. No other Syracuse player averages as much as six points. Incredibly, Syracuse has won three games this tourney (only team to do so), by shooting a combined 11 of 42 (26.2%) on threes. One could add, you can't make this up! I will also add that Syracuse owns the tallest starting-five in the tourney. Guards Battle and Howard are 6-6 and 6-5, respectively, while the 6-8 Brissett is joined up front by the 7-2 Chukwu and the 6-9 Dolezaj. Duke: All know by now that Duke features senior Gray son Allen (15.6 PPG & 4.6 APG) plus four outstanding freshman. The 6-11 Bagley (21.2 & 11.3) may be the No. 1 pick in the draft and frontcourt partner, the 6-10 Carter (13.6 & 9.2), won't be far behind. Joining Allen on the perimeter are Trent (14.4 & 4.3) and PG Duval (10.2 & 5.6). Duke averages 84.9 PPG (6th) on 49.6% shooting (10th), while playing excellent D (allows 69.3PPG on 40.2% shooting). The pick: Duke is gunning for its third national title since 2010 under Coach K, who is behind only Kentucky's John Calipari in recruiting “one-and-dones” over the last few seasons. Coach K and Boeheim are longtime rivals but also friends and there will be no surprises in this game. The Orange are 7-1 as a double-digit seed in the NCAA tournament, the best such win percentage all time (that's SU, not ATS!).However, Blue Devils are the most talented team in the tourney, AND, they are healthy. No team has trended up more than Duke has since Feb. 8, when the Blue Devils lost on the road to North Carolina. Duke has scored at least 85 points in back-to-back NCAA games for the first time since 2004, when it lost to UConn in the Final Four. Duke won its first two tournament games by 20-plus points and the other two times that happened, the Blue Devils reached the Final Four. Syracuse won't beat Duke in a low-scoring game. I heard heard a Boehein interview in which he said he's beaten Duke in teh past by outscoring the Blue Devils. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State UNDER 129.5 | Top | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: 30-4 Michigan State is in its 21st consecutive NCAA tourney appearance but a win today vs. Syracuse would allow the Spartans to advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in three seasons. The opponent will be 22-13 Syracuse, which is said to have been the last at-large team to make this year's field. Jim Boeheim's in his 42nd-year at Syracuse and is in te Big Dance for the 33rd time. The Spartans advanced with a victory over Bucknell on Friday, while the Orange won a First Four game over Arizona State and then got past TCU in their first-round game. Syracuse: Boeheim has three 'iron-man' performers in sophomore guard Tyus Battle, 6-8 freshman Oshae Brisset and PG. Howard (15.0-7.4-5.0). Battle led all Division I players with an average of 38.5 minutes per game prior to the tourney, Howard was second at 38.3 and Brissett was sixth at 38.0. Battle leads Syracuse's offensive attack with an average of 19.3 PPG, Oshae Brissett adds 14.9 & 8.9 plus Howard checks in at 14.7 & 4.8 APG. The 7-2 Chukwu (5.4 & 6.9) and the 6-9 Dulezag (5.6 & 4.8) have contributed on and off this season. However, as has been typical for Boeheim-coached teams, the key has been Boeheim's matchup zone defense that causes teams lots of trouble. ASU led the Pac-12 with an 83.5 PPG scoring average but was held to just 56 points (on 40.4% shooting) and then TCU was held to 52 points (on 39.6 % shooting), 31 points below its season average of 83 per game! Michigan State: The Spartans have been ranked as high as No. 2 in the AP poll this season (were No. 1 in the Coaches poll for a couple of weeks, as well) but really got a scare from Bucknell in an 82-78 win on Friday. Since the Spartans' first loss of the season to Duke in November, the question of whether or not Miles Bridges (17.3 & 7.0) is aggressive enough offensively in big games has been there for coach Tom Izzo. He has tried to find balance in his offensive game, with Michigan State's deep rotation allowing him not to have to dominate the ball, but against Bucknell, it was Bridges who closed the door by scoring 14 of his 29 points during a nine-minute spurt in the second half that pushed the Spartans' lead from six to 14. Also, expect that the play of PG Cassius Winston (12.6 & 6.9 APG) to be a key for Michigan State, as he must handle the zone and the size of Syracuse's defenders when they extend to apply pressure on the ball. The pick: The Spartans have five double digit scorers and overall, more depth than Syracuse. However, Boeheim-coached teams know how to control the play and win at this time of year. That said, so do Izzo-coached teams, as teh Spartans are allowing just 65.2 PPG on the season (23rd), while holding opponents to an NCAA-low of 36.7% from the floor. These traditional powers haven't met in the tournament since 2000. The Spartans won in the regional semifinals 75-58 and went on to win the national championship. Deja vu? Maybe but the play is an 8* on the Under. |
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03-16-18 | Lipscomb v. North Carolina UNDER 160.5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
The setup: North Carolina begins defense of its NCAA Tournament title (Tar Heels have been to back-to-back championship games) as the No. 2 seed in the West Region when it meets 15th-seeded Lipscomb in Friday's first round at Charlotte, N.C. The 25-10 Tar Heels are coming off a 71-63 loss to Virginia in the AAC Tournament championship game this past Saturday. North Carolina is seeking its seventh national championship after defeating Gonzaga 71-65 in 2017 (lost in the 2016 title game to Villanova 77-74 on a last-second shot). As for Lipscomb, the 23-9 Bisons earned their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance with a 108-96 victory at Florida Gulf Coast on March 4 to win the Atlantic Sun tourney title. Lipscomb: The Bisons watched a 32-point second-half lead get trimmed to five, before holding on to get past Florida Gulf Coast. "Couldn't be happier," Lipscomb head coach Casey Alexander told reporters. "Someone asked me how I was feeling. I don't even know." Junior guard Garrison Mathews led the Atlantic Sun in scoring at 22.1 PPG (5.5 RPG) and averaged 28.3 over his last three games, after scoring 33 versus FGCU. 6-7 junior forward Rob Marberry was the team's only other double-figure scorer at 16.0 points per game while averaging 5.8 rebounds. The 6-9 Eli Pepper (7.0) averaged a team-high 7.9 rebounds, while sophomore PG Kenny Cooper (9.9 points) averaged a team-best 4.0 assists. Lipscomb comes in averaging 82.6 PPG (21st) but allows 77.5 PPG (294th). North Carolina: The Tar Heels feature a balanced attack led by junior forward Luke Maye. He leads the team in scoring (17.2) and rebounding (10.1), joining Duke's Marvin Bagley III, as the only two ACC players to average a double-double this season. Senior guard Joel Berry (17.1) was last year's Most Outstanding Player in the Final Four. He and Maye combined for 37 points and shot 12-for-25 from the floor against Virginia, which allows the fewest points in the nation at 53.4. However, their teammates were a combined 8-for-24 from the floor. Senior guard Cameron Johnson adds 12.7 PPG, senior swingman Pinson averages 10.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG and also a team-best 4.8 APG, plus unior guard Kenny Williams (11.4 PPG) adds the balanced scoring and depth I mentioned earlier. The Tar Heels rank 26th in the nation in scoring at 82.0 PPG. The pick: Two high-scoring teams seems like a play on the over at first blush. However, while Lipscomb aveages 82.6 PPG, that didn't come against competition like North Carolina. The Tar Heels are familiar with the NCAA scene in Charlotte, holding a 33-1 record in NCAA games in their home state. That includes an 11-0 mark in Charlotte. Sure, the Bisons opened some eyes with their resounding 108-96 victory over Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun Title game but remember, this is the Bisons first-ever invite to the Big Dance plus they haven’t played since March 4! Not convinced that extended layoff helps and let's not forget Lipscomb was manhandled by a combined 87 points in blowouts at Texas, Alabama & Purdue. Lipscomb averaged just 62.3 PPG in those losses, TWENTY points below its season average in points,. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse OVER 141.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: To hear the NCAA Tournament selection committee tell it, schools like Arizona State, Oklahoma and Syracuse made the 68-team field before the calendar turned to 2018. That doesn't make sense to me, nor to most people I've talked to, but here we are. Ironically. 20-11 Arizona State, just 8-10 in Pac 12 play before losing a first-round game to Colorado in the conference tourney, will face 20-13 Syracuse in the second of two, First Four games on Wednesday. The Orange were also just 8-10 in league play (the ACC) and own just one win all season against a ranked team, beating Clemson in their last home game of the regular season. Arizona State: Not much was expected of the Sun Devils this season, coming off a 15-18 season the year before (7-11 in Pac 12 play). However, ASU beat tournament No. 1 seeds Xavier (in Nov.) and Kansas (in Dec.) and rose to No. 3 in the AP top-25 . The Sun Devils reached 12-0 and were the last undefeated team in Division I to lose, before struggling in Pac 12 play. A trio of senior guards have led ASU all season. That group includes Tra Holder (18.4-4.1-3.4), Shannon Evans II (16.6-3,2-3,5) and Kodi Justice (12.6). Freshman guard Martin (9.8) just missed averaging double digits plus the 6-10 Lake (7.3 & 5.3) and the 6-7 Mitchell (5.7 & 5.3) were the team's best frontcourt players. ASU led the Pac-12 with an 83.5 PPG scoring average, finishing 14th in the nation. Syracuse: Jim Boeheim's in his 42nd-year at Syracuse and will lead his team into the Big Dance for the 33rd time. The Orange were tabbed by NCAA Tournament committee chair Bruce Rasmussen as the last at-large team into the field. They rolled to an 11-2 record during the non-league portion of their schedule but despite finishing in a tie for 10th in its conference, Syracuse proved itself in the eyes of the committee with a top-20 strength of schedule (14th entering Sunday) and four wins against top-50 RPI. Boeheim has three 'iron-man' performers in sophomore guard Tyus Battle (19.8), 6-6 swingman PG Howard (15.0-7.4-5.0) and 6-8 freshman Oshae Brissett (14.7 & 8.8). Battle leads Division I players with an average of 38.5 minutes per game, Howard is second at 38.3 and Brissett is sixth at 38.0. The 7-2 Chukwu (5.4 & 6.8) and the 6-9 Dulezag (5.2 & 4.8) have contributed on and off this season. The pick: A problem for Syracuse is that the team's top-two scorers, Battle and Howard, come in struggling. Battle has failed to shoot 40 percent from the floor in seven of the last eight contests and Howard has failed to shoot over 30 percent from the floor in four of his last five outings. I favor ASU's trio of senior guards and let's not forget that the Sun Devils not only beat No. 1 seeds Xavier and Kansas but also own victories over NCAA Tournament teams, San Diego State, Kansas State and UCLA. However, how can one really trust ASU after the way it finished? As for Syracuse, Boeheim knows how to win this time of year. Then again, he may just have to beat Bobby Hurley's team at its own game. That means the Over is a 10* play. |
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03-08-18 | Butler v. Seton Hall OVER 148.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Both 19-12 Butler and 21-10 Seton Hall have spent time in the AP's top-25 this season but will square off Thursday in quarterfinal action in the Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden unranked. The two teams met just six days ago (to close their respective regular seasons), as Seton Hall won 77-70 on Saturday at home to complete a sweep of the season series Butler. The Pirates are the Big East's three-seed (10-8), while the Bulldogs are the six-seed (9-9). Butler: The 6-7 Kelan Martin (21.2 & 6.4) was one of three unanimous selections to the All-Big East first team and is a contender for Player of the Year honors. Sophomore guard Kamar Baldwin was not honored by the league despite averaging 15.0-4.9-3.2 assists, including scoring in double figures in each of the first 14 Big East games. Guard Jorgensen (10.7 ) and the 6-8 Wideman (9.4 & 5.2) are two other major contributors. Seton Hall: The Pirates start four seniors plus a sophomore. The "core four" includes 6-6 senior Desi Rodriguez (18.1 & 5.0) and the 6-10 Delgado (13.4 & 11.6) up front, along with a pair of guards in sophomore Powell (15.6) and senior Carrington (14.8-3.1-4.5) in the backcourt. Rodriguez missed the final three regular season games with a sprained knee but is expected to suit up Thursday. The pick: The Bulldogs did not close the regular season strong with losses in five of seven, which cost the team a top-four finish. Butler hopes it can win here, for the school's first Big East Tournament victory, after first-game losses in its first four years in the conference. A quick turnaround with Seton Hall may be just what the doctor ordered, especially with the Bulldogs playing with double-revenge. Then again, Carrington and Delgado have enjoyed great success against the Bulldogs this season and in their careers. Carrington has put up 54 points and eight assists while making 15-of-30 from the floor and 10-of-14 from the three-point line in two games this season, plus has scored in double figures in seven of eight games with the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Delgado has five double-doubles in the series, including 49 points and 25 rebounds this season. I say make the Over an 8* play. |
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02-26-18 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 141.5 | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas Tech is watching its season unravel at the worst possible time. The Red Raiders opened Big 12 play 10-3 before losing back-to-back road games against Baylor and Oklahoma State, followed by Saturday's home setback against Kansas, which clinched its 14th straight Big 12 regular-season title. Texas is 22-7 (10-6 in Big 12) and its current ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll will not hold up when the new poll is released Monday afternoon. The Red Raiders will look to end their three-game slide Monday night but will have to do so in a very tough venue, as they will travel to Morgantown to face current No. 21 West Virginia, which is 21-8 (10-6 in Big 12) . Texas Tech: The Red Raiders edged West Virginia 72-71 back in January at Lubbock, with Keenan Evans scoring 20 points and Brandone Francis adding a career-high 17. Evans is the team's top scorer at 17.2 PPG but his last three contests have been awful, as he has shot a collective 3-of-19 for 12 total points while battling a toe injury. 6-5 freshman Zhaire Smith (11.4 & 4.7) was the high man against Kansas with 20 points and has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in six of his last seven outings. The only other Texas Tech player scoring in double digits is Culver (11.2 & 4.2), who is also a 6-5 freshman. Tech's defense has been its strength on the season, allowing 63.5 PPG (9th). West Virginia: The Mountaineers can sympathize with the Red Raiders, as they lost five of six to close out January, after opening the season 15-1. However, West Virginia has rebounded by winning five of seven in Feb, including double-digit wins over Baylor and Iowa State last week. Five players average in double digits (a sixth averages 9.5 PPG), led by Jevon Carter (17.0 & 5.0 & 6.5). He led four starters in double figures with 24 points against Iowa State, while Esa Ahmad (10.3 & 4.7) chipped in 18 points and 11 rebounds and Sagaba Konate (10.5 & 8.0) had 14 points, nine boards and six blocks. Konate has six straight games with multiple blocked shots and has recorded 15 blocks in the last two games alone, while also going 16-of-16 from the foul line over the last seven game. Carter is the first major-college player in NCAA history to record more than 1,500 points, 500 rebounds, 500 assists and 300 steals, . The pick: I noted Tech's excellent defense above but note that West Vs. allows just 63.8 PPG here at WVU Coliseum. With Evans nowhere near 100 percent, this will be a hard-fought low scoring contest. Make the Under a 10* play.
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02-23-18 | Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 137 | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up The Ohio State Buckeyes were picked to finish 11th in the preseason Big Ten poll. However, first-year head coach Chris Holtmann (via Butler) saw his team end a two-game skid with a 79-52 victory against Rutgers on Tuesday. Ohio State now has a chance to grab a share of their first conference title since 2012 if they are able to beat the Indiana Hoosiers tonight and No.2 Michigan State falls to Wisconsin on Sunday. Ohio State was just 17-15 last season (7-11 in Big Ten) but the Buckeyes are currently No. 16 in the AP poll with a 23-7 record (14-3 in Big Ten). Ohio State cruised past Indiana 71-56 in the first meeting back on Jan. 30 in Columbus and cnow have a chance to sweep the season series for the first time since 2010-11. Indiana's chances of earning a postseason bid took a big hit following a 66-57 setback to Nebraska on Tuesday. The Hoosiers had won four consecutive games, including two straight at home by double digits, before being held to their lowest point total in nearly a month. The Hoosiers are 16-13 overall, including 9-8 in the Big Ten. A victory here would give them 10 conference wins for the first time since the 2015-16 season. Ohio State: The Buckeyes own a strong frontcourt led by the 6-7 Bates-Diop (19.0 & 8.7). He's joined up front by SF Tate (12.6 & 6.2) and 6-9 freshman Wesson (11.0 & 5.2), with PG Jackson (12.4-3.8-3.9) running the show in the backcourt. C.J. Jackson led the way with 18 points in the bounce-back win vs. Rutgers,while Kaleb Wesson added 14 on 6-of-7 shooting. Guard Kam Williams (7.9) scored 13 points in his final collegiate home game while fellow senior Jae'Sean Tate contributed nine points and 10 rebounds. Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Keita Bates-Diop was held to six points on 3-of-11 shooting against the Scarlet Knights and is a troubling 12-of-39 (30.8%) from the floor over his last three games. The Buckeyes are an efficient offensive team (48.8% shooting ranks 23rd) and a strong defensive one, allowing 66.2 PPG (39th) on 41.5% shooting (48th). Indiana: The Hoosiers also have a first-year head coach in Archie Miller (via Dayton) and he knows he will need his team to be extremely dialed in to play a team that is trying to win a league championship. Justin Smith (just 6.2 PPG on the season) continued his stellar play down the stretch as he scored 16 points and pulled down eight rebounds vs. Nebraska, but the Hoosiers were undone by 19 turnovers. Senior guard Robert Johnson added 16 points and six rebounds against the Cornhuskers. while 6-8 junior Juwan Morgan had13 points and nine boards. Morgan (16.5 & 7.3) and Johnson (14.0 & 4.6) are the only two Hoosiers in double digits on the season. The Hoosiers average a modest 71.8 PPG, which ranks 236th. The pick: Ohio State is sniffing a Big Ten regular season title but the Buckeyes come in having lost their last two road games by an average margin of 17.5 PPG. Indiana will have a "packed house" for this bitter rival and would like nothing more than to play spoiler, plus 10 league wins would be a nice bonus for Miller in his first season in the Big Ten. Indiana has won four of the last five home meetings with Ohio State and while I'm not 100% behind the Hoosiers, I do see a high scoring game, which gives me a 10* play on the Over. |
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02-21-18 | UCF v. Tulsa UNDER 129.5 | Top | 61-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an AAC matchup tonight in Tulsa (Don W. Reynolds Center) when the 17-9 Central Florida Knights (8-6 in AAC) take on the host Tulsa Golden Hurricane, who are 16-10 overall, including 9-5 in AAC play. UCF has won three in a row but Tulsa has won five straight, as the Golden Hurricane lead the Knights by a game in the league standings. Both are hoping to secure a top four finish in the AAC (which earns a first-round bye in the tourney) and a win by UCF would mean the two schools would be tied for fourth place (a win by UCF would also give the Knights the tiebreaker between the two). Central Florida: UCF’s success has been in large part due to its suffocating defense, which allows just 60.3 points a game, third-best in the nation. That's no surprise as UCH was expected to be a defensive stalwart because of the presence of 7-6 center Tacko Fall. However, even with Fall out for the season since mid-January, the Knights have been sterling on the defensive end, as on teh season, opponents are shooting just 38.6% against them (4th). Guard BJ Taylor has been the leader of the offense for coach Johnny Dawkins, despite missing 16 games with a foot injury after the season opener. He's now averaging 14.0 PPG (through 10 games) and is the team's top-scoring option now. The 6-9 Davis (11.7 & 8.9) has even more pressure on him now, with the loss of Fall. Tulsa: The 6-8 Etou leads Tulsa in scoring (15.3) and rebounding (7.9) and is joined by two other double digit scorers in PG Taplin (12.1-3.8-4.3) and SF Jeffries (10.0 & 5.1). However, two more players just miss, guard Henderson (9.9) and the 6-8 Igbanu (9.2 & 5.2. )Head coach Frank Haith's squad has sported a balanced attack (five players averaging between 9.2 & 15.3 PPG) and one of the things that he likes most about his team this season is the grit his players are showing as the regular season comes down the stretch. The pick: This is a big game for both teams and expect a low-scoring one. UCF plays great D (see above) plus has real trouble scoring, averaging only 63.0 PPG (346th). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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02-19-18 | Oklahoma v. Kansas OVER 167 | Top | 74-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas Jayhawks edged West Virginia at home on Saturday and when Baylor knocked off the Texas Tech later that night, drew even with the Red Raiders atop the Big 12 standings at 10-4. No. 13 Kansas (21-6) will visit No. 7 Texas Tech (22-5) next weekend but must first take care of business tonight when slumping No. 23 Oklahoma and Trae Young come calling. The Sooners rallied for an 85-80 victory back on Jan. 23 in Norman against the Jayhawks but Oklahoma has lost six of seven since (including five in a row) to fall to 16-10 (6-8 in Big 12). Oklahoma is currently ranked No. 23 but will undoubtedly fall out of the new AP poll which comes out this afternoon. Oklahoma: The Sooners dropped their fifth straight game on Saturday in a 76-66 home loss to Texas. They shot a season-low 30.8 percent, as Young continued his struggles. He scored 26 points but shot 7-of-21 from the floor and is 18-for-58 (31.0%) over his last three games, including 4-of-27 (14.8%) from behind the arc. Young snapped a streak of 20 consecutive missed three-pointers on Saturday and while he remains the nation's leader in scoring (29.0) and assist (9.2), he is averaging 23.6 points per game during the losing skid, while his shooting percentages remain abysmal. Oklahoma has two other double digit scorers this year, junior guard Christian James (12.3 & 4.8) and 6-9 freshman Brady Manek (11.0 & 5.7) but James was held to 11 points against Texas (after scoring at least 20 in his previous two games) and Manek connected on just 3-of-13 after entering the game shooting 61.7 percent from the floor at home on the season. Kansas: The Jayhawks closed out the Mountaineers with a 19-3 run as Udoka Azubuike scored 21 points and Devonte' Graham contributed 15 points. The victory put Kansas in a position to challenge for a 14th consecutive regular-season championship. "It keeps us in a position to play for something," Kansas head coach Bill Self told reporters afterward. "It was big for our guys' confidence, probably." The 7-foot Azubuike (14.1 & 7.0) made 7-of-8 shots from the floor against West Virginia to lift his shooting percentage to 76.9%. Lagerald Vick (12.8) has now scored 29 points in his last two games, after after reaching double figures in four of his previous 12 contests. Joining the 7-0 Azubuike and guard Vick in the starting lineup are three more of guards, led by the team's best player, Graham (17.4-4.1-7.2). Mykchailiuk (15.3 & 4.0) and Newman (12.0 & 5.12) round out Self's 'Iron-Five." The pick: The Sooners were ranked in the top five just a month ago but their current slump has them sliding onto the NCAA "bubble." Oklahoma has lost 16 straight at Kansas dating to a 1993 win in the Big Eight under Billy Tubbs, so it would be hard to expect them to win here, especially since Kansas is in "revenge mode" and needs to take some momentum into its visit to Lubbock this coming Saturday. Then again, it's also hard to see Oklahoma NOT getting up for Kansas. Oklahoma opened 11-1 to the over this season, then saw six of its next seven go under. However, four the its last six games are back on an over trend. The Sooners are the nation's top-scoring team (87.5 PPG) but allow a whopping 82.0 PPG, ranking 337th. With Kansas averaging 81.6 PPG, the Over is the 10* play in this one. |
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02-08-18 | Gonzaga v. Pacific UNDER 147.5 | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
ANALYSIS COMING |
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02-07-18 | UNLV v. Nevada UNDER 163.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Nevada joined the MWC for the 2012-13 season, meaning the in-state rivalry between the Wolf Pack and Runnin' Rebels only intensified. When it comes to bragging rights for the state of Nevada, there's no love lost between UNLV (located in Las Vegas) and Nevada (located in Reno), although the schools are 430 miles apart. Nevada moved back into the AP top-25 rankings this week at No. 23, thanks in part to a 9-1 record in Mountain West play, the school's best conference start since joining the league. As for UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels have rebounded from a 11-21 record in head coach Marvin Menzies' first season at the helm and will enter this contest at 16-7. However, the school took advantage of a weak non-conference schedule to go 11-2. UNLV is just 5-5 in MWC play. UNLV: The Runnin' Rebels are off a 93-91 overtime loss at second-place Boise State on Saturday night. Brandon McCoy is a 7-1 center who was selected the conference preseason freshman of the year. He's lived up to expectations by averaging 18.0 & 10.0 with 12 double-doubles. He's one of four double digit scorers, the others being guards Johnson (14.6 & 5.9 APG) and Mooring (13.5) plus the 6-7 Juiston (14.6 & 9.7), who was last year's national junior college player of the year. Nevada: The Wolf Pack are just a 104-103 double-overtime loss at Wyoming from being undefeated in Mountain West play. They are led in scoring by 6-7 junior forward Caleb Martin (19.8 & 5.3), a transfer from North Carolina State who is shooting 46.9 percent from three-point range and is coming off a 26-point, seven-rebound outing in a 76-67 victory at Colorado State. Jordan Caroline is a 6-7 guard who is the reigning Mountain West Tournament MVP. He is second in scoring (16.7) and leads the team in rebounding (8.8). Cody Martin, twin brother of Caleb and also a N.C. State transfer, is averaging 13.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, while senior guard Kendall Stephens (12.6 points), a transfer from Purdue, also is averaging double digits. The pick: UNLV used to dominate the series between the two Silver State schools and hold a 59-25 series advantage but Nevada is 3-1 since Eric Musselman took over as head coach and handed UNLV a pair of lopsided beatdowns last season, winning 104-77 at Lawlor Events Center and 94-58 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Both schools feature very different roster from last year but the intensity remains. last yera's whe win in Reno featured the Wolf Pack unveiling new "Battle Born" jerseys, pre-game introductions by famed boxing ring announcer Michael "Let's Get Ready to Rumble" Buffer and Nevada players walking through a record crowd of 11,841 to enter the court before delivering the impressive 27-point knockout. I expect UNLV to remember and note that Nevada has lost the last three times after entering the national poll. However, all three of those games were on the road, not here at home where the Wolf Pack are 40-4 under Musselman, including 29-1 in their last 30 home contests. Not sure I want to buck Nevada but a low scoring game should be expected. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova OVER 147 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
analysis soonThe set-up: With 161 wins, Gonzaga is the winningest team in Division I basketball since the beginning of the 2013-14 season. Villanova, with 15 wins, ranks third. The 8-0 Wildcats (No. 4 in the latest AP poll) will take on the 7-1 Bulldogs, who are currently No. 12, at Madison Square Garden in the first game of the Jimmy V Classic (UConn and Syracuse follow). It feels like an "Old Big East get-together" ('Nova, 'Cuse and UConn), with the little school from from Spokane playing the role of "interloper." Villanova: The Wildcats are averaging 86.4 PPG (30th) and are coming off one of their best shooting games ever. Villanova connected on 64.6 percent from the floor in Saturday's . 41-point rout of Saint Joseph's. Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth and Omari Spellman each made four 3-pointers Saturday, as Villanova drained a school-record 19. A pair of 6-9 forwards, Paschall (10.4 & 5.5) and Spellman (9.0 & 7.4) join a four-guard rotation of Bridges (17.9 & 6.2), Brunson (17.9 & 4.5 APG), DiVincenzo (11.4) and Booth (11.1). Villanova knows how to put points on the board but also knows how to stop its opponent on the defensive end of the court, allowing 61.6 PPG (20th). Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are a "scary good" offensive team, averaging 92.9 PPG (4th) on 51.2 percent shooting (15th). The 6-9 Williams (15.9 & 6.9) is one of six players in double digits, along with PG Perkins (14.2 & 4.5 APG). The 6-9 Hachimura comes off the bench and is just shy of double digits, averaging 9.8 PPG plus 5.4 RPG. 6-8 freshman Corey Kispert (10.4 & 3.7) started the Zags' first seven games but missed the win over Creighton with an ankle injury. He is uncertain to be on the court Tuesday. The Bulldogs trailed Creighton (then ranked No. 25) by seven at halftime in their last game, before destroying the Bluejays 54-30 after intermission. The pick: The Wildcats won the 2016 national championship over North Carolina, while the Bulldogs advanced to the 2017 NCAA Tournament title game before losing to the Tar Heels. This is the first real test for the Wildcats and it's the biggest game on Gonzaga's remaining schedule. Potential Wildcats matchups with Arizona and Purdue never materialized in the Bahamas. Instead, when the Battle 4 Atlantis bracket was busted, Villanova beat Northern Iowa for the title. Sure, 'Nova plays excellent D but this is a game between two outstanding offensive teams and the Over is an 8* play. |
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11-16-17 | Xavier v. Wisconsin OVER 146 | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-0 Xavier Musketeers are currently No. 15 in the AP poll and have become a regular in the top-25 plus have been known for deep NCAA tourney runs for quite some time now (Xavier has played in 15 of the last 17 NCAA tourneys). The Wisconsin Badgers are also no strangers to NCAA tourney action, as they are tied with Gonzaga with 19 consecutive tourney appearances. Wisconsin and Gonzaga trail only Michigan St. (20), Duke (22) and Kansas (28) for active NCAA active streaks plus Wisconsin's 13 NCAA wins ties them with Kentucky, just one win less than North Carolina's 14, for most tourney wins these past four seasons. Wisconsin welcomes Xavier to the Kohl Center and while the Badgers are not currently ranked (lost four starters from LY's 27-win team), they have also opened 2-0. Xavier: Trevon Blueitt led the team with 26 points on 8 of 14 shooting with five 3-pointers threes and a team-high nine rebounds in the team's 101-75 rout of Rider in its last outing. Xavier also scored 101 points in its first game, holding Morehead St. to just 49 points. 6-6 guard Blueitt (a preseason All-American) leads four double digit scorers at 25.5 PPG (also 7.0 RPG),. He's joined by fellow guard Macura (16.0-3.5-5.0) plus big men like the 6-9 Jones (15.0 & 8.5) and the 6-8 Gates (13.0 & 3.5). Wisconsin: The Badgers are coming off an 89-61 beatdown of Yale in their last outing. Guard Khalil Iverson led the team with 17 points on 8 of 9 shooting from the foor with a team-high three assists, while fellow guard D’Mitrik Trice scored 14 points on 6 of 7 shooting with a pair of threes and three steals. The 7-0 Andy Van Vliet added 13 points and 6-10 Ethan Happ had 12 points. Happ, like Blueitt, is a preseason All-American. He is the lone returning starter and checks in averaging 16.0 & 11.0 after two games. The pick: Xavier will not forget the last meeting between the two schools, as Wisconsin KO'd the Musketeers on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Bronson Koenig in a 2016 NCAA Tournament game that catapulted the Badgers to the Sweet 16. The 'sting' of that 66-63 setback still lingers for many Musketeer players, coaches and fans, as Xavier meets Wisconsin in this game which is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games tournament. No 66-63 final this time around, as the Over is a 10* play. |