Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: WMU is already bowl eligible, but since losing QB Jon Wassink to injury, the Broncos have struggled on both sides of the ball. It appears the team has packed it in with just a few games remaining. The Cardinals will need to run the board to become eligible and while that’s likely not going to happen with an injury to their starting QB as well, the home side certainly won’t going down without a fight tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is already 2-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle. |
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11-11-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Lakers are the better team, but they have a tough game in Sacramento on Saturday night and I think its the opportunity that the desperate Hawks will need to at least keep this one competitive. The Hawks are just 3-9 overall and 1-5 on the road, but with upcoming games at Golden State, Denver and Indiana on the horizon, tonight’s contest against a tired Lakers team clearly takes on added importance. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Grab the points. |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt v. USC -2.5 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0, but I think that USC presents match-up issues for Vanderbilt. It did last year when the Trojans prevailed 93-89 in OT last November. The Commodores play this difficult non-conference contest, but then they return home for a series of “cream puffs.” In my opinion, this sets up as a letdown spot for Vandy. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 90 or more points in its previous outing. Play on USC. 10* play |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys +7 v. Eagles | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Eagles are winning and the Cowboys are losing. Dak Prescott and Dallas won’t go down without a fight here though. The Eagles have won three straight, while the Cowboys have dropped tow in a row. In last week’s 28-14 loss to Tennessee, newly acquired WR Amari Cooper had 58 yards and a TD. He’ll bring some depth to the passing game, which will in turn help out Ezekiel Elliot and the ground game. QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and two TD passes in last week’s loss. The Eagles come in “rusty” here out of their bye in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” |
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11-11-18 | BC +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 8-48 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: BC Lions’ QB Travis Lulay is completing just over 60 percent of his passes for 2,494 yards, 13 TD’s and 11 INT’s. The BC ground game averages 94 YPG. Defensively the Lions allow 26.3 PPG and 361.3 YPG. While BC enters the playoffs having split its last six games, the Ti-Cats enter having lost three straight. Note that Hamilton has lost three of its last four at home. QB Jeremiah Masoli has been a bright spot with a 28/18 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Hamilton is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home, while BC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series. The Ti-Cats are currently being outscored by 7.7 points average during their three-game skid and everything points to another letdown here as well. Grab the points. |
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11-10-18 | Oregon State v. Stanford -21 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 126 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon State enters off a 38-21 loss at home to USC, while Stanford comes in desperate, having lost two straight and four of five, most recently a tight 27-23 setback at Washington last weekend. Oregon State is averaging 417.1 YPG on offense, but it’s very weak defensively, allowing 262.3 YPG through the air and 274.8 YPG on the ground. Stanford is allowing 266.3 YPG through the air and it’s averaging 26.1 PPG overall. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cardinal are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after two or more consecutive SU/ATS setbacks. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-10-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Has there been any bigger surprise than the Vancouver Canucks this season? No team has done more with less. Buffalo enters off a 6-5 OT win over the Habs, but with a game against Tampa Bay on Monday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this afternoon. The Canucks are off an 8-5 win at Boston and are 5-2 on the overall. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring six goals or more in an OT victory in its previous outing. Lay the price for the 1.5 goals “puck line.” 10* |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +3.5 | Top | 26-6 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 14 m | Show |
10* MSU The set-up: Ohio State comes in off a tough 36-31 home win over Nebraska and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well in this difficult road venue. Michigan State enters off a 24-3 win over Maryland. This is a big time revenge game as well for the Spartans, as Ohio State has taken two straight in the series, including a 48-3 victory last November. Ohio State is averaging 42.2 PPG and it’s allowing 23.8, while MSU is averaging 23.4 PPG, while allowing just 19. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two games or more unbeaten streak and in which it’s a road fav in the -3 to -10 points range, while MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing three points or less in its previous contest. This one has the all the makings of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Grab the points. |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -109 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I’m not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they’ll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a “letdown” spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC. The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points. Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. |
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11-09-18 | Detroit v. Temple -20 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Temple Owls were 17-16 last year, but they’re expected to take a step forward this season and they got things started off on the “right foot” with a 75-67 home win over La Salle. Detroit was 8-24 last year and it enters off a listless 89-76 loss to WMU in its opener. Things aren’t going to get any easier on the Mercy tonight, as the Owls love to get out and push the pace. The Titans lost three of their four top scorers from last year and I have a hard time seeing this year’s unit keeping pace with Temple. The pick; The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. Look for Temple’s Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr. to dominate and lay the points with confidence. |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: LA enters off a satisfying 120-109 home win over the wolves on Monday and I think it’ll now predictably stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers continue to roll at home most recently getting the better of the Bucks 118-103 on Tuesday. The Clippers are averaging 116.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.8. Portland is averaging 117.3 PPG an fit’s allowing only 107.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points and expect a rout! |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in rolling. Carolina enters off three straight wins, most recently a 42-28 victory over Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh has won four straight, most recently a 23-16 win over Baltimore. These teams are very similar, with dynamic and capable QB’s who each have plenty of weapons to utilize. But Newton has struggled against the elite defenses throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here at Heinz Field. The pick: Take it for what you will as well the Panthers are a terrible 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Pittsburgh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State -17 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Wake Forest comes in off a loss to Syracuse and it lost its starting QB for the season in the process. Can anyone say letdown spot?! After back-to-back defeats, NC State finally bounced back with a destruction of FSU at home in its latest action, becoming bowl eligible in the process. Wake forest is averaging 32.2 PPG, but with QB Sam Hartman went down with injury mid-way though and because of that, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to struggle to keep up with the Wolfpack. NC State is giving up just 25.5 PPG, while averaging 32.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 in this series, while Wake is now just 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests. Wake has struggled against superior competition this year and nothing is going to change here. Lay the points. |
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11-08-18 | Siena +6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Siena enters hungry after falling 77-67 to Providence in its Opener on Tuesday. The Saints would lose the rebound battle by a 31-23 margin. Evan Fisher was a bright spot in the setback with 11 points, six boards and three assists. Siena has a new coach and new faces, but its loaded with talent none-the-less. The Colonials enter 0-1 as well, but I think they come in dwelling on what could have been after falling 77-74 in OT to the Stony Brook Seawolves on Tuesday. George Washington lost the rebound battle as well 17-12, while also committing 17 turnovers. Arnalda Toro had 13 points and 11 boards. The pick: It’s a rebuilding year for each team, but note that the Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. George Washington is still reeling from the opening night loss and while I won’t call for the outright, I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Grab the points. |
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11-06-18 | Duke v. Kentucky | Top | 118-84 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats and I think the SEC school will find a way to get the job done here. The Blue Devils were 29-8 in ACC play last year, while the Wildcats finished 26-11 in SEC action. Last year Duke averaged 84.4 PPG and it allowed 69.6. Kentucky averaged 76.8 PPG and it allowed 70.2. The picks: Duke may have the “flashier/bigger” names on its roster, but John Calipari’s team is loaded with talent as well and I don’t think they’re getting nearly enough respect here. Duke’s young recruits get their first real test here and I think they came up just short. Play on Kentucky. |
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11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night. The teams: Packers’ QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits. New England wasn’t challenged last week. It didn’t need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points. |
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11-04-18 | Chargers +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in playing well, but I think the extra week off to rest and prepare for this one will be the difference for Philip Rives and the visiting Chargers. The teams: LA comes in on top form having won four straight, most recently a 20-19 win over the Titans in London. Rivers has 2,009 passing yards and an elite 17/3 TD:INT Seattle has won four of five after an 0-2 start. But after sweeping a two game road trip, including a 28-14 victory in Detroit last Sunday, I think the Hawks suffer a predictable letdown here on the return to friendly soil. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three following its bye, while Seattle is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins. Play on LA. |
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11-04-18 | Falcons +2 v. Redskins | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 90 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington comes in dog tired here after three straight victories, while the Falcons return to action fresh off their bye week and two straight victories. I expect the visitors to sneak away with an outright victory today. The teams: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the hurting Falcons. Atlanta still has plenty of injury issues to deal with, but Matt Ryan and his WR core remains in tact and I think the unit will be a difference maker this afternoon. The Redskins comes in off a 20-13 win over the lowly Giants, with aging RB Adrian Peterson going for a season-high 149 yards. Suffice it to say, I don’t think AP is going to match that pace again in back-to-back weeks. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but ATL is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. I like a rested Ryan to pull off the upset Sunday afternoon. |
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11-04-18 | Lions +5 v. Vikings | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -113 | 90 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit enters off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle, while Minnesota comes in off a 30-20 home loss to the Saints. The teams: The Lions last road game ended in a 32-21 Week 6 victory in Miami. While it struggled against the Seahawks last week, I think Detroit will have its opportunities today against Vikes’ defense which has been exposed. Overall the Lions are averaging 24.4 points and allowing 26.6. Minnesota is averaging 24.6 PPG and allowing 24.4. Kirk Cousins remains a bright spot on the team with a 16/4 TD/INT, but the once vaunted league leading defense is now firmly planted in the middle of the pack. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit has played well on the road this year, averaging 27.7 PPG away from friendly confines. Grab the points. |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -125 | 90 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it’ll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend. The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there’s a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand. Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I’m banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points. |
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11-03-18 | Notre Dame -10 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-21 | Push | 0 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Irish look to remain undefeated after knocking off Navy last weekend. Northwestern has already knocked off two ranked foes this year, but I think the Wildcats will come up short here against Notre Dames complete team. The teams: Notre Dame posted 584 total yards of offense against a hungry Navy team last weekend. A perfect season is in the Irish’s grasp, but they’ll have to stay focused now and take it one game at a time. Northwestern managed three fumble recoveries against Wisconsin, but RB Isaiah Brewer was one of the lone bright spots on offense with 117 yards and a TD. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a victory, while the Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by 20 points or more. Notre Dame is on a mission and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas this weekend. Lay the points. |
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11-03-18 | Missouri +6.5 v. Florida | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Missouri comes in off a 15-14 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, while Florida enters off a 36-17 beatdown loss at the hands of Georgia. If recent history is any precedence, then Missouri has to be liking its chances today as in last year’s matchup it won 45-16. The teams: Missouri is averaging 35.5 PPG and it’s allowing 28.9. QB Drew Lock has 2,144 passing yards with 16 TD’s and six INT’s. Florida is averaging 32.2 PPG and it’s allowing 19. QB Feleipe Franks has 16 TD’s and six INT’s so far this season. Last weekend the Gators came back down to earth, turning the ball over three times, while not forcing one themselves. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games in which it was held to points or less in its previous game and lost, while Florida is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 17 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments! |
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11-03-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit comes in off a disheartening 120-119 road loss in Brooklyn, while Philadelphia posted a 122-113 home victory over LA in its most recent action. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Philly after it fell 133-132 in OT in Detroit earlier in the year. The teams: This is the finale of a three game trip for the Pistons. Overall Detroit has already lost two of three on the road. The Pistons are averaging 109.9 PPG and allowing 110.5. Philadelphia is averaging 113.8 PPG and allowing 113.4. Joel Embiid had 41 points with 16 boards in the win over the Clippers. Note that the 76ers are now 5-0 on their home floor this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is 63-44 ATS the last two season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The 76ers’ revenge the earlier loss and continue their home dominance with another convincing victory. |
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11-02-18 | Wolves v. Warriors -11 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wolves come in off an epic 128-125 win over the Jazz, a game in which Derrick Rose scored 50 points. Can anyone say letdown spot? Rose isn’t going to score 50 again for the rest of his career and I think the Warriors will look to take advantage of this tired visiting side. The Warriors are firing on all cylinders right now as well, as guard Stephen Curry is averaging a career-high 33 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Minnesota is just 8-20 in its last 28 on the road and interestingly only 3-7 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU has just one win on the year (against lowly Ball State) and it comes in having lost four in a row. MTSU will look to take advantage and to build off back-to-back wins over ODU and Charlotte. The teams: WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPPG and it’s allowing 30. The Hilltoppers are now essentially eliminated from bowl contention and with that fact weighing heavily on the team collectively, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill will look to build off another efficient game, last week going for 280 yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Terell West exploded for 120 yards and a major score as well. The pick: Note as well that the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records (the home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series), while WKU is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points. |
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11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Sacramento has exceeded expectations to this point, sitting at 5-3 overall and 3-2 on the road. But after four straight wins and back-to-back on the road and with two whole nights off before a game at East leading Milwaukee, there’s no question in my mind that this finally sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Clearly the Hawks don’t have the same luxury, as they’re 2-5 and they’ve lost three in a row. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a three games or more unbeaten streak. Play on the Hawks. |
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11-01-18 | Temple +10.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 40-52 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF puts the nation’s longest winning streak on the line tonight and while I’m not calling for the straight up outright loss, but I think the home side will have its hands full with the division co-leader tonight, who clearly won’t be going down without a fight. The teams: Temple is 5-3 overall, but 4-0 in league play. Last time out it knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati 24-17. QB Anthony Russo finished three INT’s, but he also had three TD’s. During the Owls three game win streak he’s thrown eight of nine TD passes while posting 791 yards through the air. UCF is averaging 44.4 PPG. QB McKenzie Milton was held out of last week’s win over the Pirates, ending a string of 27 consecutive starts. Note that his status for this game is uncertain as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF has struggled mightily in the month of November, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six during that period, while Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 on the road. I think the Owls have a legitimate shot at winning outright, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as may points as you can. Play on Temple. |
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11-01-18 | Ohio -1 v. Western Michigan | Top | 59-14 | Win | 100 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is 3-1 in conference play, while WMU is 4-1. The MAC West division race is wide open and I smell a small upset in the air on Thursday night. The teams: WMU lost 51-24 to Toledo last time out, breaking a six-game slide. In that contest star QB Jon Wassink left early in the first quarter with injury. Wassink missed the final four games of 2017 as well and the Broncos would finish 1-3. Overall WMU is averaging 35 PPG and allowing 30.9. Ohio though comes in surging, it won its second straight conference game in a 52-14 blowout victory over Ball State. AJ Ouellette had 135 yards and two scores. QB Nathan Rourke had 127 yards passing and a TD as well. Overall the Bobcats are averaging 38.3 PPG while allowing 28.9. The pick: Ohio though has held its last four opponents to under 27 points. Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while WMU is only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 at home, including only 1-3 ATS this season. |
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10-31-18 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After two straight losses, including a setback to the Blazers on Monday night, I think the Pacers come in focused on the task at hand here. New York on the other hand comes in content off a 115-96 victory over the Nets to move to 2-5. With three nights off before a two-game road trip, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a loss in which it scored 95 points or less. Play on the Pacers. |
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10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo -18 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Toledo broke a two-game slide with a big win over WMU last Thursday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Ball State comes in on the other end of the spectrum, off back-to-back losses to EMU and Ohio. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. The teams: Ball State rushed for just 80 yards and threw for only 162 in last week’s crushing 52-14 loss to Ohio. QB Riley Neal left in the second quarter with injury and he’s out for this one as well. Toldeo’ QB Mitch Guadagni also suffered an injury in last week’s 51-24 blowout win over WMU last week, meaning Eli Peters is the “main man.” Last week he was 8 of 14 for 107 yards and three TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toledo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against teams with losing records, while Ball State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH +7.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 42-51 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo has a perfect conference record, but Miami Ohio won’t be going down without a fight tonight. The Redhawks enter off a tough 31-30 double-OT road loss to Army, while Buffalo gutted out a 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that when these teams met last year it was Miami Ohio which posted the 24-14 home victory. The teams: Miami Ohio’ QB Gus Ragland has 1,769 passing yards and a 14/3 TD:INT. The Redhawks offense revolves around their strong run game though, led by Alonzo Smith, who has 342 rushing yards. Overall the Redhawks are averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9. Buffalo is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 21.1. QB Tyree Jackson was 1,869 passing yards with a 20/8 TD:INT, but note that he’s thrown five INT’s over his last three games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 following its bye week, while Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Redhawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now and I think the unit keeps the visitors competitive late. Grab the points. |
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10-30-18 | Kent State v. Bowling Green -1 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: If recent history is any precedence, then the Falcons have to be liking their chances tonight, as they took this game on the road last year by a score of 44-16. Kent enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron at home, while Bowling Green lost 49-14 at Ohio. Both teams are 0-4 in league play. The teams: KSU averages 23 PPG, while allowing 35. Last week the Golden Flashes allowed the Zips to convert 10 of 19 third down chances. Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG, while allowing 47.8. The Falcons have been worse on the defensive side of the ball than their counterpart this year, but better on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege is the difference maker for me today though, he so far has 2,078 yards passing with a decent 19/8 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak in conference action and as an underdog in the +1 to +3.5 points range. Play on the Falcons. |
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10-30-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 114-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s a fantastic “situational” play. The Hawks are in action on Monday night against the 76ers. Cleveland will look to take advantage and get off the schneid as it enters 0-6 overall, including 0-3 at home. One of those losses includes a 133-111 setback to these very Hawks just last week. The pick: The King isn’t around anymore, but I still think it’s worth noting that the Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a three games or more SU losing streak. The situation and the numbers favor the home side. Lay the points. |
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10-30-18 | Heat v. Hornets -4 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Miami has been solid in the early going, but with a game at home against the Kings on Monday, look for the visitors to rest some of their starters in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte already beat the Heat 113-112 early in the year, but after losing three of its last four, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back when playing that second contest on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, lay the points. |
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10-29-18 | Patriots -13 v. Bills | Top | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Tom Brady is 28-3 all time against Buffalo and while he won’t have offensive star TE Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, I still believe the all star will have more than enough to take care of the lowly (and injured) Bills. The teams: After a 1-2 start the Pats come in having won four straight. Last week Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s in the victory over the Bears. WR Josh Gordon had four catches for 100 yards. Sony Michel is also expected to sit this one out, so expect to see a heavy dose of James White. The Bills are dealing with several injuries, including at QB. Buffalo is already planning ahead to next year and I believe it’ll simply go through the motions tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Pats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after two or more consecutive victories, while Buffalo is just 10-13 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I expect the Kings to have a predictable letdown here after back-to-back home victories. After beating Washington 116-112 they Kings have had two nights off and with a game tomorrow night in Orlando, this contest also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors. The Heat look to take advantage, they’ve won two in a row and with a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Charlotte, I’m expecting the home side to leave everything it has on the floor tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after two or more SU/ATS victories. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-28-18 | Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-136 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Wizards will find a way to get the job done here. Washington is 1-4 SU/ATS and desperate for a victory after back-to-back road losses to the Warriors and Kings. LA on the other hand looks poised for a classic letdown here though in my opinion after its big 133-113 road win at Houston. And with a three-game road trip starting in OKC on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back road SU losses. Play on the Wizards. |
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10-28-18 | Senators v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: I believe the overall situation favors the Knights so much in this one, that I do indeed have no issues at all in laying this larger price. After three straight wins the Senators have now lost two straight. But with much more “winnable” games upcoming at Arizona and then a home and home set with Buffalo, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead.” Vegas has struggled as well this season after its Cinderella run last year, but after back-to-back losses to Vancouver and TB and with a tough road game starting in Nashville on Tuesday, I expect the home side to leave everything it has on the ice this evening. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 7-2 in their last nine home games following a two games or more losing streak. Lay the -1.5. |
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10-28-18 | Colts -3 v. Raiders | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it’ll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball. The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD’s in last week’s blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup. Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he’s gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden’s indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well. The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden’s complete ineptitude. Lay the points. |
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10-28-18 | Broncos +11 v. Chiefs | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 116 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver enters off a 45-10 win over Arizona and I think it’ll have its chances today against the Chiefs vanilla defense. Kansas City enters off a 45-10 win over Cincinnati, one week after coming up short in New England. Note that this is a revenge game for Denver after the Chiefs posted a 27-23 road win in Week 4. The teams: Denver is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing 23.4. QB Case Keenum has 1,848 passing yards and an 8/9 TD:INT. The defense dominated last week, limiting the Cards to just 223 total yards. KC is averaging 37.1 PPG and allowing 26. Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable with 2,223 passing yards and a 22/5 TD:INT, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this veteran Broncos defense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. Denver took the Chiefs best shot they had and almost prevailed. I’m expecting a similar “war” here as well. Grab the points. |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears -7.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago is 3-3 and in desperate need of a victory this week to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Thankfully the Jets are coming to town, as New York continues to deal with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. The teams: The Bears enter off a 38-31 loss to the Pats, as QB Mitch Trubisky continued his fine season with 333 passing yards and two TD’s. Chicago remains one of the best on the defensive side of the ball and Khalil Mack and company look poised for a big night against the Jets patchwork front. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold was just 17 of 42 for 206 yards, one TD and three INT’s in last week’s blowout loss to the Vikes. The Jets also lost the services of RB Bilal Powell to injury. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games played on “grass,” while Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 at home and 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. Lay the points. |
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10-28-18 | Browns +8 v. Steelers | Top | 18-33 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh has won two straight, but I think it’ll have enough of a “letdown” here to let the hungry Browns sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Cleveland comes in off a tight 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh scored the difficult 28-21 road win over the Bengals. Note that these teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1. The teams: Cleveland is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 25.3. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,291 passing yards and a 6/5 TD:INT. The Browns looked sharp defensively, posting four sacks and two INT’s against the high-flying Bucs. Pittsburgh is averaging 28.5 PPG, but it’s allowing 25.7. QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,033 passing yards and a mediocre 12:6 TD/INT on the season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a SU win, while Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in this series. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab the points. |
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10-27-18 | San Diego State -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: SDSU comes in on top form having won six straight and I look for it to keep the momentum rolling. Nevada broke a two-game slide against Hawaii in its latest outing, but I have a hard time seeing the Wolf Pack keeping pace with the Aztecs down the stretch. The pick: Nevada is getting much better play in Jay Norvell’s second year as head coach (4-4 so far this season), but note that the Wolf Pack are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten against teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a SU victory. The Aztecs are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Also note that SDSU is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. The Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise, but I think they’re completely outclassed here. Lay the points. |
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10-27-18 | Magic +9.5 v. Bucks | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a “situational” stand point for the Magic in my opinion. The Bucks have been on an absolute tear, but with a tough game in Minnesota on Friday, I think Milwaukee comes into this one “gassed.” And with East leading Toronto coming to town on Monday, it’s definitely not too difficult to imagine the home side also getting caught “looking ahead” as well. The Magic on the other hand come in off a 128-114 home loss to Portland, but they’re still 2-0 ATS on the road to open the year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in its previous contest. Grab the points, play on the Magic.
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10-27-18 | Washington -10.5 v. California | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -126 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington has a lot of work ahead of it if it hopes to be invited to the College Football Playoff. It’s going to have to sweep the table and I think it’ll get things started with a big victory on the road against Cal. The Golden Bears return home off a 49-7 win over Oregon State. The teams: The Huskies come in off a 27-13 win over Colorado last week. QB Jake Browning had 150 yards passing with one TD and one INT. RB Salvon Ahmed had 73 yards and a TD as well. Through six games Washington is averaging 28.6 PPG and allowing only 15.6. Cal is averaging 26.7 PPG and it’s allowing 24. RB Chase Garbers had 234 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as as road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Lay the points. |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | Top | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Terps come in off a 23-0 loss at Iowa, while Illinois fell 49-20 on the road at Wisconsin last weekend. The teams: Illinois has struggled against the “better” conference competition this season, but it did smash Rutgers 38-17 on the road. The Illini also has a much more favorable schedule moving forward, vs. Maryland this weekend and then Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The defense hasn’t been terrible either with 15 turnovers created through six games. Maryland looked decent defensively in last weeks’ loss, holding the Hawkeyes to 310 total yards. But the offense was held to just seven first downs and 115 total yards. QB Kasim Hill has a weak 51.7 percent completion rate. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland is interestingly just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous games, while Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss. The Terps offense is broken. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. |
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10-27-18 | Arizona State +3.5 v. USC | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: USC is short-handed and deflated after last week’s 41-28 road loss to Utah. USC is likely down to third-string QB Jack Sears as well. ASU is in last place in the South in the Pac 12 and it most recently comes in off a hard-fought 20-13 setback to Stanford. The teams: ASU held the Cardinal to 358 total yards last week, but three costly turnovers proved to be the difference. Overall QB Manny Wilkins was competitive though, accounting for 394 yards of total offense. The uncertainty at QB doesn’t bode well for a Trojans’ offense that’s still reeling from last week’s loss. Additionally note that USC is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. The pick: On the year Wilkins has 1,799 passing yards with 11 TD’s and only two INT’s. ASU is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. I think the Trojans’ frustrating trend of “playing down” to the level of its competition continues this weekend. Grab the points. |
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10-27-18 | North Carolina +9 v. Virginia | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: UNC enters hungry off a 40-37 road loss to Syracuse in OT to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Virginia comes in off a 28-14 road victory over Duke to move to 3-1 in league play. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Cavs took last years contest on the road 20-14. The teams: In last week’s loss the Tar Heels put up 500 yards of offense, including 321 through the air. QB Nathan Elliot had 321 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The defense looked terrible, but the Cavs rank as one of the worst passing teams in the country. Virginia gets the job done with tough defensive play, ranked 20th in points allowed with just 18.4. But the Tar Heels won’t be rolling over and UNC’s offense comes in on top form. Bryce Perkins has been decent, not great this season (but he hasn’t had to be, simply to manage.) The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games in which it gave up 40 points or more and lost in OT in its previous outing. No outright, but much closer than expected. Play on North Carolina. |
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10-26-18 | Utah -10 v. UCLA | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA started the season 0-5, but it’s since won back-to-back games against Cal and Arizona. The Bruins will essentially still need to run the table to become eligible though and I think some regression is in order on the short week. The Utes continue to roll though as they come in having won three straight, most recently over USC. The teams: Utah QB Tyler Huntley had four TD passes and 341 yards in last Saturday’s 41-28 victory over the Trojans, while RB Zack Moss had 136 yards on 25 carries. The Utes can become bowl eligible with a victory today, but clearly they have much bigger plans in store. UCLA starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was injured in last weeks win and Wilton Speight was called into action off the bench. Speight was decent with 204 passing tards and two TD’s. Thompson-Robinson’s status is still up in the air and if he does happen to play, clearly he won’t be at 100%. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Bruins are just 1-5 ATS in its their last six home game sand only 3-13 ATS in their last 15 following a SU victory, while the Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. Last week Utah held USC to just 205 yards of offense. What chance to the Bruins have? Lay the points.
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10-26-18 | Senators v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The pick: And take it for what you will, but Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine home games after being shutout in its previous contest. Lay the -1.5. |
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10-26-18 | Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. Toronto has been on fire this year, opening up at 4-0 and getting fantastic play from the newly acquired Kawhi Leonard, who had 35 points in the most recent victory over the Wolves. But with a couple of nights off before a tough road game at conference rival and equally as hot Milwaukee up next, I think Toronto finally suffers a bit of a mental lapse on Friday night. After two straight home wins the Mavs came out flat in the second half of their game in Atlanta on Wednesday, but with a night off before a home game against Utah, I think the Mavs come in focused on the task at hand and catch the Raptors complacent. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play on Dallas. |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect those trends to continues here. Louisiana Tech has won two in a row, most recently 31-24 over UTEP, while FAU has lost three of its last four. The teams: Louisiana Tech has never had an issue putting points on the board, but it’s now gotten some better defensive play of late as well, especially from DE Jaylon Ferguson in last week’s victory, as he’d posted 3.5 sacks. The Owls most recently come in off a humbling 31-7 loss to Marshall, which for all intents and purposes has already eliminated them from repeating as Conf-USA Champs. But FAU has been hit hard by the injury bug this year, including to defensive stand out Azeez Al-Shaair. WR Dante Cousar suffered a broken leg in the loss to Mashall. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a loss by 20 or more points, while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records. A short week is not what the doctor ordered for FAU and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points in the end. |
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10-25-18 | Celtics v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well for the Thunder. Boston comes into this one at 2-2, as it’s so far traded good games with bad ones this year. It most recently fell 93-90 in Orlando. With a home and home set starting against Detroit on Saturday though, I think the visitors are going to get caught “looking ahead” to those more high-profile conference contests. The Thunder do not have that same luxury at all though as they come in having gone 0-3 SU and just 1-2 ATS to open the year. OKC has had three whole nights off though and they have two nights off after this contest before another one game against the lowly Suns. It’s now or never for the Thunder to start turning their season around. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the Thunder. |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +9 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: App State is on the AP Top 25 for the first time in its history and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Perhaps not enough of one to completely lose this one outright, but I do expect the hungry home side to go down fighting. In the end, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The teams: App State is 5-1, while Georgia Southern is 6-1. The Mountaineers have won five in a row after an OT loss at Penn State, but the offense which had put up at least 35 points during that run, didn’t last week against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Also note that the defense, which had limited four straight opponents to single digits in scoring, would then give up 17 points to Arkansas State. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 YPG on the ground, which is ranked fifth in the entire country. I believe the home side will have its opportunities to control the pace of this contest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but App State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after four or more SU victories. Grab the points. |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia -14 | Top | 14-58 | Win | 100 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: WVU comes in off a humbling loss to Iowa State and I believe it’ll take out its frustrations on the Bears. While the setback probably is the nail in the coffin for the Mountaineers playoff chances, they’ll still try to run the table from here on out and see where they stand at the end. Baylor is the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion, as it looks poised for a letdown here after almost upsetting Texas two weeks ago and coming out of its bye. The teams: A letdown here seems imminent to me for Baylor after it’s “oh-so-close” 23-17 setback to No. 9 Texas two weeks ago. The defense was decent, but the offense was once again stagnant, as QB Charlie Brewer had 240 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The run game was basically non-existent though. Mountaineers’ QB Will Grier had an “off night” last time out, going 11 of 15 for 100 yards, one TD and one INT in the shocking loss to Iowa State. I’m not going to read too much into one crummy showing though and I do definitely expect Grier and WVU’s high-flying offense to get back on track in friendly confines and against Baylor’s suspect secondary. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS victory. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-24-18 | Wolves +8 v. Raptors | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto has started off the year by going 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota is 2-2, but 0-2 on the road. The Wolves though offer fantastic value in an upset role in my opinion and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Raptors are finally poised for a bit of a mental letdown here. The pick: And that’s because note that TO is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games in which it enters on a three games or more ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Look for Minnesota’s deep and talented line-up to keep this one competitive until the final moments and grab the points. |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the “under the radar” Hawks offer great value in an upset role at home here. ATL is just 1-2, but it comes in off a convincing 133-111 road win over the Cavaliers. Dallas is 2-1, but off back-to-back victories and with a game at Toronto on Friday night, I do indeed expect Dallas to get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight. The pick: It’s a great situational play overall, but take it for what you will as well but the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 130 points or more and earning a victory in their previous contest. Play on Atlanta. |
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10-24-18 | Nets v. Cavs -3 | Top | 102-86 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland coms in as the more desperate as it’s so far 0-3 to start the year, including a humbling 133-111 home loss to Atlanta in the most recent. With a road game in Detroit tomorrow night, the Cavs will clearly be leaving everything they have on the floor tonight to try and get off the schneid. The Nets are 1-2, but with upcoming games at surging New Orleans followed by a home game against the defending champs, I absolutely believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to those more “important” match-ups. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games following a three games or more SU losing streak. Play on Cleveland. |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-126 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After their big win at home over the Warriors, the Nuggets are now 3-0 SU/ATS to start the year. But with a date against LeBron James and the Lakers on Wednesday night, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” for red hot Denver. And that’s good news for Sacramento, which is just 1-2 overall, but it’s been competitive in each game and it does enter off the convincing 131-120 road victory over Thunder, who had Russell Westbrook in the line-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 130 points or more in its previous outing. I’m grabbing the points. |
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10-23-18 | Troy -12.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Troy head to Ladd-Peebles Stadium off a 22-16 road loss to Liberty, while South Alabama destroyed Alabama State 45-7. Note that this is a revenge game for the Trojans after the Jaguars scored the 19-8 road victory last year. The teams: Troy is averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s conceding only 24.6. QB Sawyer Smith has taken over pivot duties after an injury to Kaleb Barker. RB BJ Smith was a bright spot last time out with 111 yards on 20 carries. South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and it’s allowing 39.3. QB Evan Orth has a decent 7/3 TD:INT on the season, while RB Tra Minter had 300 rushing yards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but South Alabama is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 following an ATS victory and only 5-17 ATS In its last 22 following a SU win, while Troy is 7-1 ATSin its last eight on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six conference contests. Lay the points. |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | Top | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This sets up great from a situational stand point for Washington in my opinion. The Wizards are coming off back-to-back home losses off Miami and Toronto. Clearly Washington can’t be happy and it’ll be risking life and limb tonight to get off the schneid (especially with a game in Golden State up next!) Portland comes in on the other end of the spectrum, slightly satisfied after back-to-back home victories to open the season, including a 128-119 Opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and then an equally as impressive 121-108 win over the Spurs on Saturday. But with two nights off before an extended Eastern Conference road swing, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following back-to-back SU/ATS home victories. Grab the points in a much tighter than expected affair! |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of this game will keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while the loser will officially be eliminated from contention. I think home field advantage will prove to be a big difference maker in this one. Atlanta is just 2-3, but it held on for a 34-29 win over Tampa last weekend, while New York comes in with a 1-5 record. The teams: The Giants most recently fell 34-13 at home to the Eagles. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 100 yards rushing and 99 yards receiving. But the tension between WR Odell Beckham Jr. and QB Eli Manning is real, as the coaching staff continues to move away from having their all star pivot from throwing down the field. The Falcons continue to look horrible defensively, but the offense continues to put up decent numbers and I have a hard time seeing the Giants keeping pace down the stretch. Last week Matt Ryan had 354 yards passing with three TD’s. Overall he has 1,432 passing with 12 TD’s and an INT. The pick: The good news for the Falcons? They’re only 2.5 games behind the Saints in the NFC South and this is the start of four very “winnable” games for them as well, with three contests against the NFC East and also the Cleveland Browns. Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while ATL is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Lay the points. |
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10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -7 | Top | 133-111 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a battle of “bottom feeders,” as each team comes in with identical 0-2 records. However, I think this one sets up well for Kevin Love and the home side to finally punch one into the win column (both SU and ATS of course!) The Cavs come in forces here, they have two whole nights off after this before another home game against the Nets. The young Hawks though are feeling the pressure after back-to-back road blowouts, most recently a 131-117 setback to the Grizzlies. But with three nights off before its first home game against Dallas, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine Atlanta getting caught “looking ahead” here as well. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as home favorite in the -3 to -9 points range. Lay the points, play on Cleveland. |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: These division rivals are very evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys will stumble in this difficult road venue. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records. The teams: Dallas comes in off a 40-7 win over a road-weary Jacksonville team. I’m not going to read too much into the victory though and I do believe regression is imminent here as the team has shown a propensity to struggle away from friendly confines already this season. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and allowing 17.2. Washington is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. Last week Alex Smith had 163 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran pivot will have some opportunities today in front of the home town crowd as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest. Divisional battles are always the most important and they always mean more to the home side. Lay the points. |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they’ll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field. The teams: Tom Brady faced the league’s worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we’ve already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses. And Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense at home is an entirely different “animal” than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today. The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears. |
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10-21-18 | Vikings -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes come in off a 27-12 home win over the Cardinals and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. New York enters off a 42-34 home victory over Indianapolis, but it now faces one of its most challenging defenses of the season. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. The teams: Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 233 passing yards with one TD and one INT last week. So far he has 1,921 passing yards with a sharp 12/3 TD:INT. RB LaTavius Murray had 155 rushing yards in the victory. The defense was tremendous, holding the Cards to just 269 total yards, including only 61 rushing yards. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold has a 9/7 TD:INT after going for 280 yards and two TD’s last weekend. While the offense looked decent though, note that the defense allowed 428 total yards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Vikes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. The Vikes come in with momentum, taking out the Eagles on the road and then the Cards at home. Look for New York to take a predicable step back this week and lay the points. |
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10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: I think a trip across the pond does the Titans good after their worst offensive performance in a decade. Conversely, I believe this trip will be detrimental to the Chargers’ recent chemistry. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans definitely have something to prove this weekend after last Sunday’s performance. The teams: Despite last week’s 21-0 loss to Baltimore (the Ravens own the leagues’ No. 1 defense), Tennessee is still tied atop the AFC South. LA comes in complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a 38-14 victory at Cleveland. Melvin Gordon was a standout with 132 yards rushing and three TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 4-0 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. Grab the points. |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as Toronto has an extremely tough game at home on Friday night against Boston. Washington on the other hand lost at home to the Heat in its Opener 113-112 as a 5.5 points favorite. The Wizards will be extra motivated here after that letdown and they catch a Toronto team tired on the second-game of a back-to-back. As mentioned above, I think this is a great “situational” play. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Washington has gone 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a 1-point loss at home. Play on the Wizards. |
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10-20-18 | Penn State v. Indiana +15 | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 42 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Penn State dropped its second straight in a 21-17 home loss to MSU last Saturday and I think it stumbles again here. The Hoosiers enter off a 42-16 home loss to Iowa this past weekend, their second straight setback. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Nittany Lions have take the last four meetings, including a 45-14 home win last September. The teams: Penn State is averaging 44.2 PPG and it’s allowing 21. QB Trace McSorely has 12,41 passing with with 11 TD’s and two INT’s. This is an important game for the Hoosiers, who are still bowl hopeful at this point. Indiana is averaging 26.1 PPG and it’s allowing 28.1. QB Peyton Ramsey has 1,624 passing yards with 12 TD’s and seven INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is 0-4 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I’m banking on the Hoosier catching the Nittany Lions “flat footed” in this one, so grab those points! |
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10-20-18 | Houston v. Navy +11.5 | Top | 49-36 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight wins, most recently a 42-20 victory on the road at ECU. Conversely, it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for Navy, which has lost three in a row, most recently a 24-17 setback to Temple. Note as well that this is a “revenge” game for Midshipmen after the Cougars won 24-14 at home last year. The teams: Houston is averaging 48.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. QB D’Eriq King has 1,571 passing yards, 20 TD’s and only three INT’s. The Cougars are rolling and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about them, so I’m not even going to bother. I simply feel the conditions are right here for a bit of a mental letdown in their second road game and on such a long and commanding win streak. Also in facing lowly Navy, who won’t be going down without a fight this afternoon. The Midshipmen average 28 PPG and they allow 31.8. Malcolm Perry leads the team in rushing with 632 yards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Navy is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog in the same range. Look for the hungry Midshipmen to keep this one competitive until the final moments.
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10-20-18 | North Carolina +10 v. Syracuse | Top | 37-40 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: UNC comes in off a 22-19 loss at home to VT last weekend, while Syracuse enters off its bye week, previous to that falling 44-37 in OT on the road to Pitt. The teams: UNC is averaging 20.6 PPG and it’s allowing 33.8. QB Nathan Elliot has 920 yards and a poor 4:4 TD/INT. The Tar Heels put up a hell of a fight against the Hokies last weekend and I think the team carries that grit and determination over into this one. Syracuse is averaging 43 PPG and it’s allowing 25.2. QB Eric Dungey has 1,208 passing yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 20 points or less in its previous contest and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road dog in the +10.5 to +14.5 points range, while Syracuse is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival. I think that “rest” leads to “rust” for the Orange, leaving the back door wide open for the hungry Tar Heels. Grab the points.
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10-20-18 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Cincinnati is undefeated at 6-0, most recently dispatching of Tulane two weeks ago. The Bearcats come in hungry for more out of their break and I think they’ll catch a complacent and tired Temple team “flat footed.” The Owls come in off consecutive wins over East Carolina and Navy. The teams: Cincinnati has put up 63, 34, 49 and 37 points over its last four games. QB Desmon Ridder has 1,062 passing yards with ten TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Bearcats are allowing only 13.7 PPG. Temple enters off the 24-17 win over Navy. Prior to the back-to-back wins, QB Anthony Russo had looked pretty horrible, throwing just one TD pass, while being picks off five times over his first four games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Look for the well rested visitors to pull away down the stretch. |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -9 v. UNLV | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 2-4, but I think that the Falcons’ ground game will prove to be too much for this inconsistent UNLV defensive front. The teams: Air Force will be in a terrible mood here after a heart-breaking loss to SDSU last weekend. Overall the Falcons though would put up a decent overall effort, rushing for 214 yards, while holding the Aztecs to just 2.5 yards per carry. RB Cole Fagan was a bright spot with 90 yards. Overall Air Force averages 29 PPG, while allowing 21.8. UNLV comes in off a terrible 59-28 road loss to Utah State. QB Max Gilliam threw for 250 yards and three TD’s. The Runnin’ Rebels can put points on the board, averaging 30.2 PPG, but they’ve been horrible defensively, allowing 36.7 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ari Force is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while UNLV is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records and only 5-9 ATS in its last 14 at home. Lay the points and expect a rout.
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10-19-18 | Knicks v. Nets -3 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks enters off a convincing 126-107 smash job of the hapless Hawks on Opening Night, but, I’m not convinced at all that the Knicks have suddenly “turned a corner” or anything. New York is still without star Kristaps Porzingis and several other key players and its achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Celtics as well, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the Knicks getting caught looking past their opponent tonight. The Nets fell 103-100 in Detroit on Opening night, easily covering with the spread and I think they’re going to build off that performance in their first game in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Both teams improved in the off-season, but note I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. I’m on the Nets. |
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10-18-18 | Heat v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s a great situational play. The Heat are in Orlando on Wednesday night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami is an older team, which already is dealing with a few injury issues. Washington on the other hand will be opening up its season at home after a disappointing campaign last year. This is a big game for Washington to say the least. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Heat are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the second game of a back to back in which they are an underdog in the -2.5 to -9.5 points range. Lay the points. |
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10-18-18 | Canucks v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 145 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. This is the end of an extremely tough six-game road trip, one which the Canucks have gone 3-2 so far on. Can anyone say letdown spot? With two nights off before a home game against Boston, I absolutely expect the Canucks to get caught “looking ahead.” Winnipeg on the other hand will be eager to get back on track here after letting a big lead slip away against Edmonton last time out. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Jets are 7-2 in their last nine home games in which they gave up five goals or more in their previous contest. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout.
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams last met in 2016 and Arkansas State won 31-16 on the road. Georgia State comes in “rusty” here in my opinion after its bye week, before that it got blown out 37-20 by Troy. Arkansas State looks to take advantage and to get back on track after a 35-9 home loss to App State last Tuesday. The teams: Georgia State is averaging 22.3 PPG and it’s allowing 34.2. Two weeks ago the Trojans rolled up 554 yards of offense. QB Dan Ellington has 1,224 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 PPG and it’s allowing 30.2. QB Justice Hansen had a horrible game against App State last week, but he still has 1,538 passing with 11 TDs and five INTs. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Arkansas State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 conference games and 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games against a team with a losing road record, while Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-17-18 | Nuggets -1 v. Clippers | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver improved dramatically in the off-season in my opinion, while LA definitely took a step backward. The Nuggets were led by big man Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The addition of Isaiah Thomas will compliment Garry Harris and Jamal Murray well. The Clippers six-year playoff streak came to an end last year. Lou Williams now leads the charge for the Clippers after DeAndre Jordan departed. The pick: Note that Denver has won three of its last four season openers. Note that Denver is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road, while LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. Grab the points. |
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10-17-18 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies have something to prove after a disastrous year last season. Memphis is led by Marc Gasol (17.2 points, 8.1 boards and 4.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (19.4 points, 5.1 boards and 5.1 assists). The Pacers pushed the Cavs to seven games in the first round and they’re led by Victor Oladipo (22.7 points, 8.3 boards, 6.0 assists.) The pick: The good news for Grizzlies fans is that Mike Conley is back at full strength and I think he’s going to be a big difference maker here. Conley signed a $120 million dollar contract just before getting injured and he and the rest of the Grizz will be out to send an early message. Indiana lost Lance Stephenson and I think the Pacers are going to miss his tough all around play. Look for Memphis to step up and take advantage. |
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10-17-18 | Heat v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is coming off 44 wins and it made it into the playoffs, only to get bounced by Philadelphia in the first round. The Heat didn’t get any younger, re-signing Dwayne Wade for his “Swan Song” season, along with disgruntled big man Hassasn Whiteside. The Heat have an All Star in Goran Dragic, but the guard has been hampered by injury the last few years. Orlando has a new coach in Steve Clifford and he’ll be leaning heavily on Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic this season. The pick: Vucevic was injured for most of the 2018/19 season, but he’s now at 100% health and ready to go. The Heat can’t say the same with all of their veterans. On Opening Night, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done here. |
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10-17-18 | Nets v. Pistons -5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn managed only 28 victories last year. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game, but he only played 48 games. Allen Crabbe was a consistent bright spot as well for the struggling Nets with 13.2 PPG. Detroit was led by Blake Griffin with 19.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.2 assists per game, while Tobias Harris averaged 18.1 points and 5.1 boards per night. The pick: Unfortunately for the Nets, both Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are out with inury for the opener. Detroit though comes in at full strength. Lay the points. |
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10-17-18 | Rangers v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This sets up great for a home side blowout. The Rangers are in action on Tuesday night at home in a tough match-up with the Avs. I believe the visitors come in “dog tired” here. Washington on the other hand has been off for four nights and it’ll be eager to get back on track here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 4-2 home loss to the Leafs. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Capitals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games in which they are a favorite in the -250 to -400 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout! |
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10-16-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: OKC was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in the first round last year and many will point to Carmelo Anthony “not fitting in” properly which was the issue. Russell Westbrook and Paul George, along with Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel once again make the Thunder a team which most clubs would rather avoid on any given night. But the Warriors come in more stacked than ever this year and I’m fully expecting a healthy and focused two-time Champs to put on a show tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 in this series, while OKC is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 in this match-up overall. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on Golden State. |
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10-16-18 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 160 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a favorable stretch for Tampa, which sits at 2-1 to open the year. It’s had two whole nights off after an 8-2 win over Columbus and it has two nights off after this one before a game against lowly Detroit. After that the Bolts hit the road for a lengthy trip, so earning victories over these next two games will be important for Tampa here. The Hurricanes on the other hand will come in flat here. After a tough 5-4 OT win in Minnesota, Carolina would predictably take a step back in a 3-1 loss at Winnipeg the following night. But with three nights off before a home game against the Rockies, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors also The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a blowout.
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10-16-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up and I expect another hard-fought and spirited affair on Tuesday night. The visitors on the “run line” is the correct call in my opinion though. The Red Sox go with Nate Eovaldi on the mound, while the home side counters with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Eovaldio has a lifetime 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against the Astros to go along with a 1-1 record over five starts. Keuchel has struggled against Boston whenever he’s faced them, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over 19.2 innings to go along with an 0-1 record. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Keuchel’s struggles in this particular match-up continue. |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its “bye week” off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory. The teams: Tampa’s defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they’re ranked 30th. Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has “rout” written all over it. Lay the points. |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 120 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona comes in off a 28-18 divisional road win over San Francisco and I think it’ll stumble in this difficult venue. Minnesota enters off a much-needed and confidence building 23-21 over Philadelphia and I look for it carry that momentum over here. The teams: Despite last weeks victory the Cardinals are still averaging only 13 PPG. The defense has been decent in allowing 22.4. Rookie QB Josh Rosen so far has 386 passing yards and a 2/1 TD/INT. The Vikes are averaging 22.6 PPG and they’re allowing 26.5. QB Kirk Cousins had 301 yards and a TD in last week’s victory and he so far has 1,688 passing yards, along with an 11/2 TD/INT. The pick: The Vikes’ defense looked a lot better last week, giving up just two TD passes. Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games against teams with losing road records and 8-2 ATS in its last ten games after posting 250 passing yards in its previous game, while Arizona is only 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU victory. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
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10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders +3 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Raiders to find a way to get the job done in London Sunday. Oakland is 1-4 and it’s playing for its playoff life today. Seattle is the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion though, as it had won two in a row before a crushing home loss to the division rival Rams last weekend. The teams: The Seahawks opened up their offense last week, but it still wasn’t enough to get the job done against the Rams. As good as Seattle’s offense looked against a shaky Rams’ defense, is as poor as the Hawks defense performed. And I think that’s a major issue heading into this matchup against this hungry non-conference foe. Marshawn Lynch gets to face his old team for the first time. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has been above average this season and I believe he’ll have plenty of opportunities today against this clearly struggling Seattle secondary. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as a favorite and only 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference games, while Oakland is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when the line in the game is between +3 and -3 and 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
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10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia +6 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 126 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami needed a dramatic come-from-behind win to knock off FSU last weekend, a victory which extended a five-game unbeaten streak. Can anyone say “letdown/trap” spot for the Hurricanes? Virginia has had a week off to absorb a two TD loss to high-powered NC State and I look for it come keep this one competitive throughout. The teams: The Hurricanes won last week, but the offense took a blow with the news that WR Ahmmon Richards suffered a neck injury which end his career. Miami is getting unreal play through all three phases, but I think it comes in complacent and distracted this weekend. Virginia’s issues are on the offensive side of the ball, especially with the run. But the combination of QB Bryce Perkins (who is himself a dual threat) and RB Jordan Ellis remains a formidable pairing. The pick: NC State has been an absolute wrecking ball this year, so I’m not judging the Cavs completely on that one performance. As stated off the top, with a week off to prepare, I believe Virginia can in fact keep this one close against a Hurricanes team which comes in tired and distracted. Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after plaint a conference game and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Virginia is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.
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10-13-18 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 126 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State comes in off an improbable 48-42 shootout win over then No. 25 ranked OKST last weekend and I believe it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. WVU took care of business last Saturday with a relatively simple 38-22 victory over Kansas. The teams: WVU QB Will Grier wasn’t at his best last weekend, but it was still more than enough to knock off the Jayhawks. Grier finished with 332 yards and four TD’s, but also three INT’s. Iowa State got 318 yards from QB Brock Purdy last week, including four TD’s and one INT. Can the true freshman pull off back-to-back upsets? The pick: I’m banking on that answer being a resounding “no.” Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in this series, while WMU is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 on the road against teams with losing home records. Lay the points.
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10-13-18 | Purdue v. Illinois +10 | Top | 46-7 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team will likely challenge Wisconsin for the West Division race of the Big Ten Conference. Purdue is 2-3 and Illinois is 3-2 (both are 1-1 in conference play.) Each is looking to make it to the six win plateau and this is an important mid-season match-up. I’m expecting a tighter then expected battle and will therefore recommend grabbing as many pints as you can. The teams: Purdue comes in rested off its bye, but I believe that rest does in fact lead to “rust.” The Boilermakers opened with three straight losses, then they won two in a row before the untimely “bye.” With that momentum now erased, I believe the stage is set for the hungry underdog home side to take advantage. Illinois enters off a 38-17 win over Rutgers, a confidence building victory which snapped a 13-game conference losing streak dating to 2016. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 against conference opponents, while Illinois is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I do indeed feel that the conditions are correct for a war down to the end. Grab the points.
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10-13-18 | Louisville v. Boston College -13.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in off losses. I think BC rallies at home though, while I expect Louisville to take another step back in this difficult road venue. The teams: The Cardinals were destroyed 66-31 by Georgia Tech at home last weekend. Louisville looks completely inept defensively, especially against the run, allowing 542 yards and eight TD’s on the ground last Saturday. Five different GT players would post a rushing TD. BC fought tooth and nail at undefeated North Carolina State last weekend, but it wasn’t enough in the eventual 28-23 setback. The Eagles haven’t lost at home yet this year though. RB AJ Dillon didn’t play last weekend, but he’s expected back in the line-up here to test this atrocious Louisville front line.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BC is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Eagles are averaging a whopping 223 yards on the ground this year, a number which will increase dramatically after this contest. Lay the points. |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -109 | 105 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah comes in off its first conference victory this year, while Arizona enters at 3-3 and 2-1 in league play after a great defensive performance against the Golden Bears. While I’m not calling for the outright, I do expect a spirited battle from the Wildcats this evening. The teams: Arizona is averaging more than 30 PPG and it’s allowing 26.5. QB Khalil Tate had 141 yards, one TD and one INT last week and he also ran for a season high 40 yards. The defense though would force four turnovers and return two INT’s for TD’s. The Wildcats come in on top form, having won three of their last four. Utah is averaging 25.8 PPG and it’s allowing 17.2. The Utes broke a two-game slide with an impressive road win at No. 14 Stanford, forcing four turnovers in the 40-21 upset. QB Tyler Huntley had 199 yards and a TD. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Utah is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Arizona is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Tate is finally starting to come around to his “pocket passer” roll and he’s getting significant contributions from his running game as well. As mentioned off the top, I’m not predicting an outright, but all signs point to “war.” Grab the points.
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups all over the field, but especially on the mound. There’s no doubt that this is one of them, as the visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with the veteran Gio Gonzalez. I think Gonzaelz can match Kershaw’s effort today, which I in turn ultimately believe swings the value to the home side on the “run line” at this reasonable price. The pitchers: Kershaw finished 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about the veteran southpaw, so I won’t even bother. Gonzalez finished 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA. He struggled down the stretch with the Nationals, but he excelled in his fives starts for the Brewers. Note that Gonzalez is 7-4 with a 3.26 ERA in all “home” situations this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Brewers 7-2 in their last nine National League night home games in which they are an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the reasonable price and grab the 1.5 runs. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants lost 33-31 last week on a last second 61 FG by Graham Gano in Carolina last weekend. I’m expecting New York to bounce back here and take out its frustrations on a clearly struggling Eagles team. New York is only 1-4, but the Eagles are just 2-3 and they also come in with more questions than answers. An outright win? Of course it’s not out of the question. In the end though, I’m grabbing the points. The teams: New York is still only 1.5 games behind Washington which sits at 2-2, so it’s still very much in the race in the NFC “L”East. Philadelphia is 29th in the NFL with 395 penalty yards and its turnover margin is a horrible minus-four. The Eagles red zone offense is just 38.5 percent in three games since Carson Wentz returned: “I’m concerned,” lamented Eagles tight end Zach Ertz after Sunday’s contest. “It’s not where we thought we would be.” The pick: To add insult to injury, Philadelphia RBY Jay Ajayi, the one standout each week, tore his ACL on Sunday. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 on the road and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against the division. The defending champs are ripe for the picking (but grab the points!)
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern -16.5 v. Texas State | Top | 15-13 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia Southern has won two in a row and I look for the Eagles to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday night against the lowly Bobcats (just 1-4.) The teams: Since falling to Clemson, Georgia Southern has beat Arkansas State and South Alabama (48-13 last weekend.) GSU has scored at least 28 points in its four wins, including at least 34 on three occasions. QB Shai Werts had two rushing TD’s against South Alabama. Overall the Eagles are averaging 30.8 PPG, including th seventh most-rushing yards in the natoin with an average of 276.6 per game. Texas State has given up at least 35 points in three different games this year and it’s given up more than 40 twice. The Bobcats have issues at QB as well (the team is splitting time between Willie Jones III and Tyler Vitt.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the conference, while Texas State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-11-18 | Golden Knights v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 160 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand-point. The Golden Knights are in Washington to take on the Capitals in re-match of last year’s Stanley Cup Final and will clearly be “gassed” here. The Knights will be using their back-up goaltender and they’ve not looked nearly as explosive this year, clearly suffering from a “hang-over” after last season’s epic debut season. Pittsburgh on the other hand can’t be too happy at 1-2. It beat Washington 7-6 in OT in its Opener, before then falling 5-1 to Montreal two nights later. But the Pens have had four whole nights off to absorb that set-back and prepare for this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -150 to -300 range. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on the Pens on the “puck line.” |
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10-11-18 | Oilers +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Edmonton’s played one game and it lost 5-2 in New Jersey. The Oilers got off to a terrible start last season and they’ll be risking life and limb today to try and get back to .500. Boston opened with a 7-0 loss to the Capitals, but it’s since reeled off back-to-back victories. With a game at home against rival Detroit on Saturday, I think the home side could be caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Edmonton is 7-2 in its last nine when playing a road game after having two or more nights off. Play on the Oilers on the “puck line.” |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +9 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the App State has a letdown here after its 52-7 home win over South Alabama. Conversely, it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Red Wolves after they fell in a tight 28-21 decision to Georgia Southern in its most recent action. The teams: I think this does indeed set up as a bit of a “trap” for the Mountaineers after three straight victories. QB Zac Thomas has 896 yards and an 8/3 TD:INT. Overall Appalachian State is averaging 51.8 points per game, while allowing only 17. In my opinion, these numbers are unsustainable and are skewed due to the competition level faced. Arkansas State is averaging 26.4 PPG and it’s allowing 29.2. QB Justice Hansen was phenomenal in a losing cause last week, going for 376 yards and a TD. Note that he doesn’t have an INT over his last three games and he has 1,329 passing yards and an 11/2 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas Sate is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while App Sate is 0-5 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records. I’m not calling the outright, but I do expect a very competitive battle. Grab the points. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
analysis coming |