AAA Sports NFL Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-13 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 147 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the New England Patriots.
The Buffalo Bills earned an impressive 19-0 win over the Miami Dolphins last week to move to 6-9 SU and 8-7 ATS. Veteran defensive tackle Kyle Williams and rookie cornerback Nickell Robey had two sacks apiece. Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Da'Norris Searcy added one each in helping Buffalo to its first shutout in over two years. The New England Patriots clinched the Division in Baltimore with an impressive 41-7 win. Logan Ryan had two INTs and a return TD while Chandler Jones also returned a fumble for a TD late to put this game away. Tom Brady threw on TD pass to Shane Vereen early and the Patriots easily salted this one away. The Patriots always call this time of the year the payoff time and they want to playing their best football going into the playoffs so I am expecting a big win here. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS and 7-0 SU at home this season. The Bills are just 2-5 SU and ATS on the road this season. If the Patriots win and the Broncos lose they would get the 1st overall seed in the AFC. It would be more devastating for the Pats to lose since the team could drop to the third seed with a Bengals win. Don |
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12-29-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -12.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the New Orleans Saints.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into the last week of the regular season at 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS. The Bucs fell to St. Louis 13-23 on the road last Sunday. The Buccaneers managed just 170 total yards, setting a season low for the second straight week. Vincent Jackson had five catches for 98 yards but Rainey was held to 37 yards on 20 carries and Glennon was 16 of 26 for just 158 yards minus 47 yards on the sacks. The New Orleans Saints fell to Carolina on the road last week 13-17 to fall to 10-5 SU and 7-8 ATS on the season. Drew Brees threw for 281 yards one TD and two INTs. Jimmy Graham had one TD catch on 73 yards receiving in the loss. The loss to the Panthers has really made this game a big deal for the Saints who have wide range of possibilities that could happen this weekend. The Saints make it in the post season if they win though and I expect them to treat it like a playoff game here. Note New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 SU at home and have covered the spread in six of those games. The Bucs are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road this season and is 0-2 SU and ATS versus Saints on the road. Lay the points here and don |
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12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers -10 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the San Diego Chargers.
Kansas City comes into the final week of the season at 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS after a disappointing 7-23 loss at home to Indianapolis Colts. Jamaal Charles had the lone TD early in the game and was really the only effective offensive player for the Chiefs, gaining over 100 yards on the ground. The loss eliminated the team from the number seed in the AFC. The San Diego Chargers have won three in a row after a 25-13 win at home over Oakland to move to 8-7 SU and 9-5 ATS on the season. Philip Rivers threw for 201 yards, one TD and one INT. Keenan Allen had his eighth score of the season while Ryan Matthews 99 yards and a score in the win. The Chiefs have very little to play for here while the Chargers have everything to play for. San Diego is 5-2 ATS in home games and is rolling at the right time of year, having won three games in a row. The Chiefs are 1-2 ATS as the underdog. Andy Reid has already talked about resting his starters for this game. This game should be a massive blowout. Lay the points. AAA |
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12-29-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts -11.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars come into week 17 at 4-11 SU and 5-9 ATS after a 16-20 loss at home to Tennessee. Chad Henne finished the game 24-of-34 for 237 yards, two TDs and one INT. Mike Brown had 71 yards and one TD as well in the loss. The Indianapolis Colts come into the final week of the season 10-5 SU and 8-6 ATS after an impressive 23-7 win at the Kansas City Chiefs. Donald Brown had 71 yards and a TD while Jerrell Freeman had two interceptions. Griff Whalen was impressive all game for the Colts, grabbing seven balls for 80 tough yards. The Colts have an outside shot at a first round bye here and I expect them to have no problems at home versus a Jags team that isn |
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12-29-13 | Detroit Lions +3.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 143 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the Detroit Lions.
The Detroit Lions come into the final week of the season 7-8 SU and 6-9 ATS after a crushing 20-23 OT loss at home versus the NY Giants. The loss effectively eliminated Detroit from the playoffs race. Matthew Stafford was pretty bad to be honest, going 25 of 42 for 222 yards and two interceptions. Calvin Johnson, questionable for the game because of an injured right knee, wasn't the targeted receiver once after making three catches for 43 yards in the first half. The Minnesota Vikings come into the final week at 4-10-1 SU and 8-7 ATS after getting blown out 14-42 at the Cincinnati. Matt Cassel struggled mightily, throwing one TD to his three INTs. The Vikings were 0-9 on third downs. All the pressure is off the Lions here now and I think the ultra talented team comes out with one last good performance this week as there is sure to be changes next season. A rallying point is likely going to be Jim Schwartz who is very much on the hot seat and likely on his way out. The Lions are 4-1 ATS versus divisional opponents and I think show up here in true Lions fashion, when it doesn t count. The Vikings have underachieved as well this season but to label them the favorite here is a little strong. Minnesota is 1-2 ATS as the favorite this season. Grab the points with Detroit with a good shot at the outright win. AAA |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Baltimore Ravens come into the final week of the season at 8-7 SU and 7-7 ATS after a 7-41 loss at home to the New England Patriots. It was the Ravens' most lopsided loss since a 37-0 defeat at Pittsburgh in 1997. Joe Flacco went 22 for 38 for 260 yards and two interceptions for the Ravens, who fell to 6-2 at home. The Cincinnati Bengals crushed the Vikings 42-14 win at home last week to move to 10-5 SU and 9-5 ATS. Andy Dalton threw four touchdown passes on Sunday, and linebacker Vincent Rey returned an interception 25 yards for a score and the Bengals had another big day at home. The Ravens have to win this game but I don |
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 11-54 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ART OF WAR" on the Chicago Bears.
The Chicago Bears sit at 8-6 SU and 4-9 ATS after a 38-31 win at Cleveland. Jay Cutler finished 22 of 31 for 265 yards and validated first-year coach Marc Trestman's decision to stick with him over McCown, who had played so well while filling in for Chicago's starter. Matt Forte had 127 yards rushing and Brandon Marshall had 95 yards receiving and a TD in the win. The Philadelphia Eagles fell to 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS after a 30-48 loss at Minnesota. Nick Foles threw for a career-high 428 yards and second-half touchdown scores to DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz and Jason Avant. This game was deemed so big it was flexed into the prime time spot on NBC over the Ravens Patriots and I have no doubt it should be a good one. The Bears have won two in row SU and ATS while the Eagles are coming off their first loss in five games. The Eagles are just 5-6 ATS this season as the favorite. This promises to be a tight affair with so much on the line. Regardless of how the Cowboys, Lions and Packers fare, this game will still give the winner the edge for the No. 3 seed over the other. With Jay Cutler back and playing well there could very easily be a Bears out right win here. this is an Eagles secondary that let Matt Cassel throw for 382 yards last week. Despite the Vikings missing Adrian Peterson, Philadelphia gave up more than 21 points for the first time in 10 games. Lay the points in prime time with Chicago. AAA |
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the New England Patriots.
The New England Patriots sit at 10-4 SU and 6-8 ATS after a 20-24 loss at the Miami Dolphins. Brady went 34 for 55 and threw two scores. Julian Edelman made 13 catches for 139 yards, and Amendola added 10 receptions for 131 yards. The Patriots mounted drives of 16 and 15 plays but settled for a field goal each time, and Gostkowski misfired on a field-goal try for only the third time this year when he sailed a 48-yard attempt wide left. The Baltimore Ravens continued its hot streak, winning a 18-16 thriller at Detroit to move to 8-6 SU and 7-6 ATS. Kicker Justin Tucker accounted for all 18 points, including the game winning 61-yarder to seal it late. Rookie Matt Elam had the game sealing INT on Matt Stafford late to really seal it. While it |
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12-22-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* "TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER" on the "over" between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.
Arizona heads into this Sunday with a 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS record after a 37-34 OT win at Tennessee. The Cardinals scored 21 straight points in the second half, the last when Antoine Cason returned his first interception for a TD and a 34-17 lead. Rashard Mendenhall also ran for a pair of 1-yard touchdowns, and Carson Palmer threw for 231 yards and had a 6-yard TD pass to Jake Ballard. Seattle sits atop the NFC at 12-2 SU and 10-3 ATS record after a 23-0 beat down at the New York Giants last Sunday. The Seahawks had five interceptions on the day with Richard Sherman reeling in two of them. Russell Wilson rushed for 50 yards and threw for 206 yards and a TD in the easy win. Note that three of the last five games between these two teams has seen the higher number fall and with the way the NFL is being called these days don |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts bounced back nicely to move to 9-5 SU and 7-6 ATS after a dominating 25-3 win at home over Houston. Andrew Luck finished 19 of 32 for 180 yards with the two first-half TD passes that gave the Colts a 20-3 halftime lead and the team defence salted it away from there. Kansas City moved to 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS after a 56-10 win over Oakland. Jamal Charles had a monstrous five total touchdowns in the win. Alex Smith threw four of his five TD passes to Charles, going 17 for 20 for 287 yards to make the Chiefs the fourth team ever to make the playoffs a year after losing at least 14 games. The Chiefs have been beating up on some terrible defensive play from Washington and Oakland the past two weeks leading to some stupid point totals. I think we see a better defensive effort from the Colts here to make it a lot more difficult on the Chiefs. Note that Kansas City is just 2-5 ATS at home this season and 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-7 points. Though Kansas City has won by a combined 60 points the past two weeks, there are still issues to fix on the defensive end. Over their past eight games, the Chiefs have allowed 47 plays of 20 or more yards, the most in the NFL. The big point spread looks to be a little too high here with a pretty good team in the Colts visiting. Take the points with Indianapolis. AAA |
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -8 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Minnesota Vikings come in at 4-9-1 SU and 8-6 ATS after a 48-30 win at home over Philadelphia. Matt Cassel threw for two touchdowns and 382 yards while Mike Asiata had three TD scores on 51 yards rushing for the Vikings. Cincinnati is coming off a 20-30 loss in prime time to Pittsburgh that gave the team a 9-5 SU and 8-5 ATS record. Andy Dalton completed 25 of 44 for 230 yards and two second-half touchdowns, but Cincinnati never recovered after getting staggered early at frigid Heinz Field. The Bengals did not look good at Pittsburgh but I expect they come back with a big effort at home here versus the Vikings. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home this season while the Vikings have yet to win a game on the road this year. Also note that the Bengals are a perfect 2-0 ATS after a loss to a divisional rival this season. The Vikings have not won two games in a row all season and should start to be looking to shut this season down pretty soon with a the off season in mind. The Bengals could still finish with one of the top seeds in the AFC if they win out. Look for this team to take care of business at home in a big way. Lay the points here. AAA |