Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Packers are a injury riddled group right now and Aaron Rodgers looks less than 100% healthy ,but their defence is holding up well and have held their last two opponents to season low outputs.I expect they will continue to stand tall vs a Niners team with a uncertain QB situation thanks to Jimmy G being out with an injury and top RB (Jerick McKinnon) out, and it must also be noted that eight offensive players were on the sideline during Thursday's practice due to injuries. Also an interesting trends run here indicates GB could be in a letdown situation as they have gone under 8 straight times after playing long time rivals Detroit who they faced last week. Meanwhile, SF despite of losing to Arizona thanks to 5 turnovers last week held the Arizona Cards to 220 yards of Total offence. The 49ers D, has not always looked cohesive this season, but considering how banged up the Packers are they have a viable opportunity to make them selves look like respectable stoppers this Monday night. Look for two banged up offences to play fairly conservatively here this evening, and for this combined total to stay on the low side of the number. NFL team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 26-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. The average posted total was 46 and the average combined score clicked in at 38.4 ppg. Play UNDER |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 83 h 24 m | Show | |
The KC Chiefs and their young gunslinger QB Patrick Mahomes goes head to head with future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady this Sunday night in a prime time affair with a justifiably high total attached to it. Both teams can put points up in bunches and both have shown a reluctance or inability to play consistent defence. Last year KC came into New England and won a 42-27 battle, and if the Pats get up here you know they won't take the pedal of the metal , knowing how explosive the Chiefs can be, and also wanting to inflict some pain on their opponent in revenge mode. KC will respond in kind . Let the fireworks begin. OVER. New England has averaged 34,3 ppg at home this season. KC's offence has averaged 35.7 ppg on the road and the D has give up 29.3 ppg. NFL games with an exceptionally high Totals line of 58 or more points have gone 7-0-1 O/U since since the 2000 campaign . The highest total ever registered was 60 points back in 2004 where KC and Oakland put 61 points on the board eclipsing the 60 point totals line. Play on the OVER |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 41 | 21-0 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
The Titans style of play is a old school approach to the game and methodical in nature. They like to smash and crash their way to the promised land , while the Ravens like to run and gun and utilize their array of offensive weapons. Here today, Im betting the Titans will have no choice to open up against a team that can pile points upon a hurry. Both teams took part in low scoring affairs last week and will be itching to see their offences flow this week. Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9 and are 8-1 OVER after they score 10 points or less.TENNESSEE is 21-6 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992 which happened against Buffalo in a 13-12 loss last week and 7-1 OVER L/8 after the scored 13 or less points The L/3 games in this series have gone over with a combined average of 45 points per game going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 26-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 30-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
The Redskins enter this game on short rest after their defence was exposed on Monday night vs the New Orleans Saints as they lost 43-19. Meanwhile, the Panthers D, did not look much better in a 33-31 win vs the NY Giants last week and more importantly were out gained 432 to 350 yards. It must be noted that Washington is 12-0 OVER on a natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed more points and more than 345 yards of offense in their last game. The Panthers are 19-0 OVER since 1998 as a dog when the total is over 34 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points. The Panthers feature the league's top-ranked ground game, averaging 154.0 yards per game which is a good omen for us cashing a OVER ticket as the Redskins are 15-0 OVER vs a team that is averaging at least 28.5 rushes per game. CAROLINA is 17-3 OVER L/20 in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 61.5 ppg. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 56 ppg. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 13-4 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 49 ppg scored. NFL games are 18-0 OVER since the start of last season in non-divisional games that are lined within three of pickem between teams with the same winning percentage, as long as the host team is not on a five-plus game winning or losing streak. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 51-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings UNDER 43 | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 30 m | Show | |
Arizona has not played aggressively this season, and have actually been quite methodical in their approach and now tonight against a superior side in an away game I expect for the Cards to very conservative again . I know some might think that Arizona will be suddenly aggressive aftertaste weeks win, but they had only 220 total yards in the game and picked up just 10 first downs in the victory, and will once again be in that frame of mind here. The Cardinals are 0-8 UNDER on the road coming off a win where they gained no more than 18 first downs Minnesota after big revenge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last week 23-21 and will be a in letdown scenario this week and could be just going through the motions vs a side that Im sure their not the inspired to play against. Minnesota is 1-9 UNDER as a home favourite of 8 points or more and have gone UNDER 9 straight times as a home favorite of more than a TD coming off a tilt where they covered. MINNESOTA is 6-0 UNDER L/ 6 in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50.5 | 33-31 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 6 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are being made big home dogs, here to an explosive Rams football team. With that said, I expect the Seahawks to take a conservative approach to this game, and try to eat up as much clock as possible via a slow methodical approach to their dangerous opponents which should result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. It must be noted that over the last 5 years: All NFL road favorites of 7 or more points when the Total is 43 points or more are 4-30-2 UNDER.I know the Rams own a big time offence, that has been putting points up in bunches this season but, NFL same-DIVISION chalk of 15 or less points who scored 33 or more points in each of their last four games have gone under 12 straight times. Also TD-plus home pups like Seattle with normal rest are 0-29 UNDER when they are off a road game in where they scored fewer than 23 points and had at least 21:20 of possession time, as long as their opponent is averaging less than 480 yards of offense per game like the Rams are. SEATTLE is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.1 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 78-35 UNDER 35 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 78 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm betting this game has inflated Total attached to it. I know there was a lot of scoring last weeks games, but this is definitely an over reaction by the lines makers according to my head to head stats . The Chargers are 0-12-1 OU since 2012 at home coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw at least three touchdown passes. Which happened in a 29-27 win vs the 49ers last week. The Raiders have gone UNDER 9 straight L9 division road games with a combined average of (34.67) scored. OAKLAND is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. Divisional underdogs up to +7 points like the raiders on normal rest when they are coming off an OT victory in a tilt where they were favored. are 4-19-1 UNDER. NFL team against the total (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 27-2 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 42 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
I like this game to go over the total despite of the perceived ineptness of both these offences. This over call in based on some key projections I have made . One of my projections estimates that Denver will average 100-125 yards rushing, which is a good omen , as the Broncos in their L/6 when they get to these numbers have seen a combined average of 45.3 ppg scored. Raiders are 11-3 OVER vs AFC East. These teams have gone over in the 5 of the L/6 meetings here in with a combined average of (46.2) ppg going on the board. HC Joseph L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of DENVER has seen a combined score of 50.3 ppg scored NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 37-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 51 | 26-14 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 14 m | Show | |
The Ravens and the Steelers are two teams with explosive offences, as is evident by Baltimores 32.3 ppg and Pittsburghs 29.3 ppg. Both also play a quick pace and are ranked number 1 and 2 in pace. Both teams showcase top tier QBs Flacco and Rothlisberger and both are averaging over 290 passing yards per game, and we should get a big time aerial display here this Sunday night, as both secondaries look weaker than expected. This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair. Note:The two most recent meetings in this series in Pittsburgh has seen 58 and 77 points go on the board. Week 4 games since 2012 when the Total is 49 points or more have gone over 7 straight times. BALTIMORE is 8-0 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 54.6 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - a very good team ( 7 PPG ormolu differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 35-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play OVER Play OVER |
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09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38.5 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 14 m | Show | |
After being sky high for their game against New England which they won, the Jags followed that up with a emotional letdown performance last week vs the Titans and lost 9-6 in the ugliest way. But now after that down effort I expect the Jags will be ready toilet it all hang out this week offensively. Note. Jaguars are 7-0 OU L/7 at home coming off a home game where they scored less than 14 points. Meanwhile, the Jets , were corralled by Cleveland staunch defence last week, scoring just 17 points, and top tier secondary and were half to just 161 passing yards. The Jets in the recent past have however gone over 8 strong times when going on the road off a game as a road dog where they threw for less than 200 yards. I look for Jacksonville to do some damage here and for the Jets to have to open up in order to keep up which will result in what I'm betting will be a high scoring affair. JACKSONVILLE in their L/12 in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992 have seen a average combined score coming in at 49.1 ppg. NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. are 39-15 OVER L/35 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 114-66 OVER L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Injury update that should help this score jump over the number.RB] 09/26/2018 - Leonard Fournette is upgraded to probable Sunday vs NY Jets ( Hamstring ) Play on the OVER |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals OVER 38 | 16-14 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
Thanks the Cards being shutout last week, and scoring only 6 points in their opener this game has been listed at the ridiculously low asking price of 38 on the total. I know the Cards offence has looked anemic, but they desperately need to get things going and Im betting they take some more chances and open things up a bit, which Im betting will get them a few more points the lineskaers might expect. Meanwhile, Chicago behind an improved offence should be ready to jell behind QB Trubinsky in do some damage of their own. Note: hey allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. NFL Game 3 teams who scored 14 points or less in each of their first two games have gone OVER 10 straight times, over the last 3 seasons. Everything points to a higher scoring game than many might expect. The Cards have gone over 13 straight times on a natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. Last season using their perimeters it must be noted that the Cards scored 38 and 27 points on the two occasions this was in play. Meanwhile,Chicago is 18-0 OVER as a favorite on a natural surface off a victory when they are going against a team that is averaging less than 5.3 yards per play and has allowed at least 1.5 sacks per game. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first month of the season are78-42 OVER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings with a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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09-23-18 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
KC has put up some big offensive numbers so far this season, well above what their season average will be going forward in my humble opinion. Their anomaly output on offence and horrendous defensive performance have now tainted this Total. In two games they have scored 80 points and allowed 65. They scored against perceived good teams, and took a lot of blows, but everything eventually reverts back to the mean, and todays opponent does not set up to end looking for shootout especially on the road. SF despite of having a quality QB at the helm of their offence just does not inspire me to be an explosive offensive team and their defence is capable as well. With that said, his total is beatable on the under. The Chiefs were listed as 4.5 dogs last week vs Pittsburgh but have gone under 11 straight times when the line is at least five points lower than in their last game, and have not eclipsed the Total in 14 tries at home coming off a game where they covered.The Chiefs are 0-12-1 OU since 1996 as a favorite coming off a road win that went over the total by at least 14 points . KANSAS CITY is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. HC Reid is 11-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached in his career with a total combined average 30 ppg going on the board. NFL Any team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 6 or less points against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were score are 22-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL games with a Total of 56 or more pts have gone under 5 of the L/6 times in Week 15 or less. Play UNDER |
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09-23-18 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jaguars put 31 points up against a solid New England defence last week, and are now running into this tilt vs Tennessee with a boatload full of confidence and feeling ready to dominate opponents with some swagger. Both teams have some injuries on offence with RB Fourette less than 100% and Titans QB Mariota also nursing a nagging injury. But both should play and even if they do not I'm expecting their replacements to help facilitate a fairly high scoring affair as compared to what the lines makers expect as per my power rankings output estimates suggest. The L/5 meetings in this series have all been listed with fairly low opening totals attached to them, but those meetings combined for an average combined scoring output of 54.4 ppg . It must be noted that Week Three undefeated home chalk of 3 pts or more are 17-4 OVER L/21 and 6-0 L/6 overall. : All game 2 NFL games with a Total of less than 41 points 32-9-1 OVER L/12 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 32-9 OVER L/10seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk , and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed OVER each time. NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have gone OVER 11 of the L/12 times when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points. NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind. NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The Cards have its of new key offensive weapons that need to time to get acclimated and gain chemistry, and I expect they will play this game conservatively behind a strong D, that despite of giving up 26 totals points in a loss last week allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half. I expect their D to once again stand tall vs the explosive Rams here today, while their own offense does a lot of field goal damage but very limited TD production. This Im betting will see this contest stay on the low side of the number. This series has gone under 6 straight times . More of the same here. NFL Division chalk of 11 points or more like the Rams have gone UNDER 8 straight times when the Total is 48 or less points. All Week Two underdogs who scored 10 pts roles as hosts In their first game are 9-1 UNDER dating back 5 seasons. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 47 | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
Alex Smith is type of QB that plays a short conservative style of football, and is well complemented by a quality consistent running game. The Skins coaching staff have implemented this type of game plan into their schemes as was evident in the Arizona win last week by a 24-6 count. Nothing changes this week vs Indianapolis.Smiths teams are have not gone above the Total in 10 straight tilts when coming off a victory where the QB threw for at least two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, the skins also shined, allowing just 145 passing yards and 213 total yards.The Redskins have gone under 11 straight times as a favorite after a game where they allowed less than 200 yards through the air. Im betting the Redksins succeed in slowing this game down to a crawl vs Colts side that has seen their L/7 as dogs stay under the total. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints UNDER 50 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I think their has been an over reaction to New Orleans ugly outing in game 1 , when they lost in a 48-40 shootout vs Tampa Bay. Now after that PTSD type experience, I expect the Saints to be concentrated on taking care of the ball, vs a tough physical looking Cleveland defense that is very under rated. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of having some new offensive weapons in their tool box will take time to get those key pieces hitting on all cylinders, and for now will a lot quieter than some the pundits expect. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the Total.All Week Two NFL home favorites of 8 points or more Totals line of 38 pts or more have gone under in 12 of the L/14 tilts dating back 8 seasons. Note: New Orleans has gone under in 9 straight games as chalk off a loss when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down conversion percentage less than 35.3%. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44 | 21-27 | Loss | -107 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay took part in a crazy shootout out last week in New Orleans winning 48 -40 for a 88 totals points explosion . Now everyone and his dog is looking at the OVER. The linesmakers however, know better as they have key stats right in front of them, while the squares don't. This is a bait Total in my opinion, and offers up value to the under wagerer. It must be noted that NFL teams who allowed 40 or more points as visitors last week went under in 14 of their next 17 games. Also all NFL teams after away tilt vs the New Orleans Saints when the Total is 46 or less points have gone under 15 of the L/18 times. With the Eagles short handed on offence with QB Wentz and some key cogs out, they are playing a lot more conservatively , as was the case in their opener In holding decent Atlanta offence to just 12 points. Im betting on more of the same action here, in what will be a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 47 | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 80 h 19 m | Show | |
The combination of a new coach with offensive tendencies at the helm of the Chicago Bears gives me confidence they can do some damage here tonight. Also as is almost always the case an Aaron Rodgers led offence should as well be more capable of making some noise here tonight in Cheeseville. My projections have both Green Bay and Chicago putting up more than 20 points. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 54.5 ppg. The Packers have gone over 16 straight times as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record with no game seeing less than 50 points go on the board.Week One DIVISION home favorites of 1 or more points with an OU line of 42 or more pts and 53 or less pts have gone under 8 of the L/9 times. Play OVER |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -119 | 80 h 4 m | Show | |
The lines makers expect this to be a closely contested game with one mistake possibly costing the other side to lose. Expect both to play conservatively and for defence to be at the forefront. In preseason play Denver allowed less points each time out, and the defence looks stable and on a upward trajectory heading into their home opener. Seattle has ben a defence first team for a long time and nothing changes today Both have trouble scoring at the best of times, and this tilt will be no different. Defence , Defence and more Defence. Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 road games . Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall. SEATTLE is 31-13 L/44 UNDER in road games in September games with the average combined score with a combined average of 33.7 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game are 62-29 UNDER L/34 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 44.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game against the Cleveland Browns with recent history of playing more conservatively on the road than at home especially when favoured. The Steelers have not gone OVER in 13 straight games (0-12-1 O/U) over the L/ 2seasons as -3 or more road chalk . Today they do go against a Cleveland team that should be more cohesive offensively as the season progresses and the new pieces jell thanks to some of the top tier talent they have added, but for now their a work and progress and recently the Browns have seen only 1 of their L/12 home games eclipse the total with a combined average of just 35.6 ppg scored. Here in week 1 I expect a defensive type North division affair that stays on the low side of the number. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.CLEVELAND is 6-0 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32 ppg scored. Injury updates that Im betting effect this total score.[WR] 08/03/2018 - Antonio Brown is probable Sunday vs Cleveland ( Quad) Not 100% [RB] 09/03/2018 - Le'Veon Bell is doubtful Sunday vs Cleveland. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 65 h 13 m | Show | |
Last season the Giants struggled to score putting up just 16 ppg , going against a tough Jacksonville D that allowed 18 points a game last season, Im betting the Gmens offence begins this season struggling again. With that said, look for a low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the Total. All Week One teams who won 4 or less games last year vs an AFC opponent when the OU line is in the range of 42-49 points are 4-17-1 UNDER since the 2006 campaign. ( Giants qualify)All Week One NFC home dogs like the Giants are 4-17 L/21 UNDER dating back to the 2014 season. Week One non division road chalk like the Jags are 8-27-1 UNDER L/19 seasons. NY GIANTS are 22-11 UNDER in all lined games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.7 ppg going on the board.NY GIANTS are 16-6 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 80 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta's top tier D ranked 8th in the league, I'm betting will give Philadelphia interim QB Foles fits this week. It must be noted Foles owns a lowly 27.8 QB rating according to the NFL official website, compared to the injured star Wentz's 75.8 QB rating. Meanwhile, Philadelphia despite of their big numbers with Wentz under center, also had a under appreciated D this season, ranking 4th overall in the league allowing 18.4 ppg and are more than capable of slowing the Falcons 15th ranked offensive attack and QB Ryan this this week. With that said, I'm expecting an old school type of tilt with a lot of smash mouth football and ground heavy football, that culminates in a lower scoring affair that remains on the low side of the Total. ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game this season and is 7-1 UNDER versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game this season.ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive unders over the last few seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games off a division game and 22-9 UNDER L/31 after a bye week with the combined average score clicking in at 39.7 ppg. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-9 UNDER 35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors. The Falcons are 13-0 UNDER vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions non of the 13 tilts eclipsed the 41 point plateau, with the combined average score clicking in at 34.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 48.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 3 m | Show | |
NFC Wildcard Playoffs The Saints have averaged 30 plus points at home this season, and I'm betting they will come close to that average here again behind star QB Drew Brees and a strong core of receivers. Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton and company will have to respond and open up the playbook or be blown out , which will result in a high scoring affair that eclipses the number. I know the media is telling us what a fine duo of defenses will be playing each other, in the post season matchup, but it must be noted that Carolina was out yarded by -35 net YPG in the second half of the season, and the Saints were out yarded in their final 6 games. NEW ORLEANS in their L/7 games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game have seen a combined average score of 60.6 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season with a combined average of with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board.CAROLINA is 11-2 OVER L/13 in games played on turf with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. HC Rivera is 17-4 OVER L/21 vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. The Panthers are 15-0 OU, eclipsing the total by an average of 12 ppg since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points. with a combined average of 57.9 ppg scored Play on the OVER |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans UNDER 45 | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 95 h 20 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game off a heart breaking loss to New England this past Sunday, and have now just completed three straight grueling games, vs Cincinnati and Baltimore and as mentioned above the Patriots last week. I really can't see them having a lot left in the tank and expect a subdued conservative effort from them this week offensively vs a Texas team that they have had a recent history of low scoring affairs against in Houston with a combined average of 30.5 ppg getting scored . With the Texans struggling to score with outputs of 16,13,16,7 points respectively in their L/4 games, I'm betting their futility remains intact against one of the leagues better defenses. On the season, the Steelers have yet to eclipse the number in away games during this campaign with a combined average of 36.6 ppg going on the board. Also 9 or more point road favs have seen their games stay under in 16 of the L/17 tilts if the Total is 37 or more . PITTSBURGH is 11-1 UNDER L/12 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 350 yards/game or more with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 33.9 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, go head to head this Sunday night with both sides still clinging to play off hopes. The Cowboys look to be clicking on offense scoring 28 and 30 points in their L/2 games, even with RB Ezekiel Elliot out because of suspension. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 332 yards last week vs the Giants , and showing he can move the chains through the air. Today against a Raiders secondary that allowed the Chiefs and average of 12.1 yards per passing play last week, Prescott should be ready to get it done and again and put a boatload full of points on the board helping this game go over the number. I know Oakland has not been lighting things up of late offensively, but there is more than enough talent here for them to fight back in desperation, and also put points up on the board. The Raiders are 12-1 L/13 OVER in non division home games with a combined average of 55.1 ppg going on the board . Cowboys are 10-2 L/12 after their D, allowed 10 points or less in their last game. HC Del Rio is 9-2 OVER in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
It's chilly this time of year in KC, and the warm weather Chargers I'm betting will be slowed down by the cool weather . It must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 14 of their L/16 home games in December/January. Considering the Chargers are 1-7 UNDER L/8 overall , and own the 2nd ranking scoring D in the NFL I will not be surprised with a low scoring affair here this week. When these teams played back in Sept the Chiefs took a physical 24-10 win and a similar type of score is not out of the question and according to my numbers a high probability outcome. The Chargers road games this season average just 38.7 combined points per game. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Reid is 19-6 UNDER in a home game with KC where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored LA CHARGERS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in games where the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
New England tonight will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was suspended for one game by the league for his intentional late hit last week against Tre'Davious White of the Buffalo Bills. He is a key cog in the Pats offensive attack and I'm betting will effect the Pats production . Meanwhile, Patriots D, is now in top form and have not allowed more than 17 points in 7 straight games ( 11.56 ppg). Tonight against a Dolphins side averaging 17.4 points and ranked 26th in the league in offense, I'm also betting on New England's defense to stand tall and make like difficult for the inconsistent Jay Cutler and company. Everything points to this being a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Yes, I know that Fins exploded last week vs Denver winning and scoring 35 points, but its interesting to note, that teams that are 3 or more point dogs, off a of a straight up underdog win at home in which they scored 35 points have gone UNDER 7 straight times dating back to last season. Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL road chalk of 8 points or more like the Pats are 31-4 UNDER since 2011 campaign, and have gone under 20 of the L/21 times overall. Also divisional road favs of more than a FG have gone under 10 of the L/11 times. Play UNDER |
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12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
Last week SFs QB Garoppolo went 26 for 37 for 293 yards, and his opponent today from the Texans Savage went 31 of 49 for 365 yards. With both these teams defenses ranked near at the bottom of the league ( SF 25th) Houston ( 28th) a high scoring game is not out of the question. It's not like these teams have anything to play for other than pride , so a loosely played affair is a high probability according to my own projections. Yes, I do know both teams have had trouble putting points on the board consistently, but I'm expecting a lot more points this week than many might anticipate. HOUSTON is 16-3 OVER L/19 in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games of 48.3 ppg going on the board. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games with combined average of 48.5 ppg.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.
Play on the OVER |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in an AFC North showdown that I am betting will be a grueling defensive affair.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in pass defense, only allowing 203.8 yards a game. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.5 per contest. So points for the Steelers wont come easily . Also as far as the big strike WR Brown goes, he also may not be as big factor as he usually is. Note: Brown has faced the Cincinnati defense 15 times in his career, 14 regular-season games and one playoff game. He went over 100 yards only three times in those contests, and the Bengals secondary according to my current ratings matches up very well against him. PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road lined games this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 16-5 UNDER in the second half of the season during the last few seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. NFL Monday night division games with the away team favored by more than 3 points have gone under 6 straight times. Steelers have gone under 8 straight times in division road game and have gone under 8 straight times as a road fav or 4 points or more. Bengals have gone under in 3 straight Monday night appearances. NFL team against the total (CINCINNATI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-8 UNDER L./5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.
Play UNDER |
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12-03-17 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 45 | 32-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 16 m | Show | |
These teams in recent meetings have played some low scoring affairs with the average combined score clicking in at 35.8 ppg in the L/4 meetings including a 33-0 shut out by the Rams earlier this season. The Rams have been explosive offensively, but what stands out is their defense, that is allowing just 18.7 ppg. Considering how muted the Arizona offense has been for the most part this season, averaging just 18.5 ppg, I'm betting the home teams output will be muted once again, which will aid in this tilt staying under the set total. It must also be noted that TD or more divisional road favs have gone under 22 of the L/23 times dating back 3 seasons when the total is 52 or less. Cardinals have gone under L/6 divisional home games. Rams have gone under in 8 of their L/10 as road favs. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return with the average combined score clicking in at 40.3 ppg. LA RAMS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game with a combined average score of 33.3 ppg getting scored. LA RAMS is 13-4 UNDER l/17 in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. All Week 12 divisional games are 19-40 UNDER L/10 seasons. The Rams have gone UNDER 15 straight times vs a divisional opponent when they are off a game as a favorite in which they allowed four or fewer or third down conversions with the average combined score clicking in at 35.2 ppg. NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for totals bettors. NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show | |
We all know the Eagles bring an explosive offense to this game , but their defense must be respected. Actually Both the Eagles and the Bears are defensively capable, with the Eagles ranking #7 in yards allowed and Chicago ranked No.11 in yards allowed. With that said, I'm expecting a slower game than many might anticipate especially in the 2nd half. This week I wont be surprised if Philly goes into cruise control, takes a big league than milks it slowly for a grinding victory. It must be noted that NFL favs of -13 or more have stayed UNDER the total 9 straight times with a total of 48 or less points . The Bears are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a TD-plus road dog when they are off a loss and facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with the combined average score clicking at 36.2 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER L/13 in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season with t a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored. NFL team against the total like Philadelphia - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 35-11 under L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015 season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER L/9 in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total) The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |