Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5 |
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08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams @ 9 ET - Yes it is only preseason but perhaps a little extra hunger to get into the win column here? Both teams are 0-2 so far and I think you'll see a good push for points here in this one! I also like the fact this is Denver's only home game in the preseason. The weather will be great and, keep in mind, the field goals can be made from extra distance here in the thin air of Denver. Being preseason and not having to be overly concerned with risk of giving the opponent great field position on a long field goal miss, why not try them? Exactly! So you could see some extra field goals made in this one, some excellent field position on misses, and the points are going to add up in this one. The Rams defense got crushed through the air last week and this was after getting destroyed on the ground the week before. The Broncos offense will be able to pick their poison here and the LA defense will be the victim. However, the Rams offense should enjoy success here too as it is not exactly an accident that Denver is 0-2 so far this preseason. So, given a low total and two teams who might be a little extra aggressive in emphasizing scoring opportunities, look for a solid winner here as both teams score well in this one on a nice evening in Colorado. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver |
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08-24-23 | Steelers v. Falcons +5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5 |
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08-19-23 | Titans v. Vikings +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5 |
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08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5 |
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08-17-23 | Browns +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5 |
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08-12-23 | Eagles +5 v. Ravens | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5 |
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08-11-23 | Commanders +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-28-22 | Giants v. Jets OVER 38 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in New York Jets vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Jets have been giving up a lot of yardage but so too have the Giants. Also the Giants have shown they'll keep slinging the ball around on the field no matter what the situation is and who is on the field. That said, the Jets are expected to play starters more in this one but all I am seeing from this is points. That's because the Jets defense also struggled in that first game of the season against the Eagles in the first half before they rallied for the win. I just do not care for what I have seen from either defense this preseason including almost the entirety of when the back-ups are in. Also there is still a lot of QB evaluation going on here with back-ups so both teams will continue to throw a lot in this preseason finale. Note that each teams first two games have totaled at least 40 points this preseason. Also, their game last preseason was low-scoring but that was week 1. Note that their week 3 games saw the Jets game total 62 points and the Giants game total 42 points. We'll get into the 40s here based on the way these two teams have been playing in this preseason and what I am expecting to see here based on how the teams are approaching this preseason finale. 10* OVER 38 in New York Jets |
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08-27-22 | Eagles v. Dolphins OVER 37 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* OVER 37 in Miami @ 7 ET - The Dolphins scored only 13 points in last week's loss but it was a deceiving final point tally as they had over 300 yards of passing offense in that one. As for the Eagles, each of their first two games totaled over 40 points and so too did Miami's first game of this preseason. Philadelphia on a 4-1 O/U run in preseason games under their new head coach and the only one that did not go over did see them allow 35 points. In other words, expect plenty of points here because did score an average of 31 points per game in their last 3 preseason home games prior to the low-scoring loss to the Raiders last week. Again, the Dolphins did have solid yardage in that game through the air and I like what they have been doing in terms of the QB rotation in this preseason and ditto for the Eagles. 10* OVER 37 in Miami |
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08-26-22 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Yes it is preseason. Yes you don't see all the starters. Yes you don't see teams wanting to show their playbook on offense very much either. However, one of the keys to how preseason games play out is a team wanting to win it. In this case I think former Patriots OC, Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels has extra motivation just like his Patriots adversary has here too. That means later in a preseason game where most teams typically are just trying to run the clock and get the game over with, I feel this one plays out much differently. Whoever is trailing will keep pushing to score. Neither wants to lose this game no matter what they have (or would) otherwise say. There is a little extra motivation here and the result will be more points I am sure. Raiders would love to finish preseason 4-0 by knocking off McDaniels former team. Las Vegas gave up more yardage than you would think though in last week's 15-13 win over Miami. Also, the Patriots allowed only 10 points last week but Carolina sat top two QB's. This one plays out differently than the unders these teams just had! 10* OVER 37 in Las Vegas |
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08-25-22 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 36 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - The odds makers opened this one up near 40 and it immediately plummeted and is now down to a 36 as of game day. Personally I love when the betting markets think they know so much more than the smartest people in the room. Who are those guys? The odds makers! That is not to say you can blindly fade every line move. Of course not, but when the situation is right it opens up a wealth of value. This one blew right past the key numbers of 38 and 37 on NFL totals and I am happy to invest on the over 36 here. Both teams playing a slew of back-ups throughout this one. So you really think you are going to see great defense all night long in a case like this? Of course not. Also, Love has looked strong at QB for the Packers thus far in the pre-season. The Chiefs have Henne getting action here and then a good battle for the #3 spot between Buechele and Crum. How will head coach Andy Reid evaluate this QB situation? It certainly will not be by seeing how good these guys are at handing the ball off! The point is there will quite a bit more offense than many expecting here. Note that Green Bay has already scored at least 20 in each game of this preseason but, prior to last week's solid defensive effort, the Packers allowed an average of 24 points per game last 8 preseason games and NEVER allowed less than 19 in any of those 8 games! Over was 6-2 in those 8 preseason games and that trend resumes here. Chiefs 24-14 win last week was 4th straight home preseason game totaling at least 38 points. Those 4 games averaged 47.5 points scored and I fully expect this one to get into the 40s as well. 10* OVER 36 in Kansas City |
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08-22-22 | Falcons -145 v. Jets | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
NFLX Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons Money Line -145 @ New York Jets @ 8 ET - You might remember I lost with Eagles in Week 1 when they lost to these Jets as the blew an early 14-0 lead and got outscored 24-7 rest of the way. I got some money back yesterday by fading the Eagles with the Browns +2.5 after Philly let me down in Week 1. We are going to get some more money back today by fading the Jets team that burned me in the comeback last week. Note that New York is now at home where they are just 1-1-1 L3 NFLX and scored just 6 points in the lone win and gave up 59 points in the loss and tie! Jets have solid chance they are going with 3rd and 4th stringers here at QB. Conversely, the Falcons are approaching this game a little more aggressively with a heavier dose of 1st and 2nd stringers. No we may not see much of, if any, Mariota at QB but I really like the compete level Ridder showed last week at QB for Atlanta. So many close games happen in NFLX and I really do not want to lay the 2.5 points here but am comfortable with the money line given all of the above. Falcons seem to be showing a hungry compete level to win and will have their higher level guys in for longer than the Jets in this one. Falcons had a rough preseason last year and seem more focused on developing a winning attitude this year. Even in preseason this holds true and the road team gets the victory as Ridder again gets it done (just like last week) with his arm (2 TDs) and legs (10 ypc on 6 rushes) and the ability to squeeze out a win late. 10* ATLANTA -145 |
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08-21-22 | Eagles v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The weather is a concern in Cleveland for this one Sunday but hopefully they get this one in even if the start time of the game is delayed. Really like the Browns a lot here as the Eagles recent history of preseason ineptitude continued last week at home when they blew an early 14-0 lead by getting blown out 24-7 the rest of the way. Philly is now just 1-6-1 SU last 8 preseason games. The Browns, on the other hand, are off another preseason win last week and are now 7-1 SU last 8 preseason games. That one loss was by just a single point so, at the current line of +2.5 on this game...Cleveland would be 8-0 ATS last 8 preseason games. Dobbs and Rosen combined for 16 of 20 passing in last week's win for the Browns so the news about QB Watson really does not have any bearing on how a preseason game like this plays out anyway. Also, the Browns defense played well last week with QB pressure (and multiple sacks) plus notching two interceptions. In a potentially ugly-weather game I am happy to back the home dog here. 10* CLEVELAND +2.5 |
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08-20-22 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 39 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 39 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers @ 7 ET - The Vikings 6-2 to the over last 8 NFLX games after last week's 26-20 loss to the Raiders. Vikings have allowed 25 points per game last 4 preseason games. On the others side of the ball I do like the fact that Minnesota picked up over 100 yards on the ground last week at Las Vegas plus had two touchdown passes and no turnovers in the game. The Vikes offense should continue to fare well here against a 49ers defense that was bailed out by some turnovers generated last week because, overall, San Francisco did allow a lot of yardage. In terms of offensive production though, the Niners are looking good with 3 different quarterbacks throwing for a TD last week! Off that 28-21 win, note that SF has now averaged 23 ppg last 8 NFLX games. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. 10* OVER 39 in Minnesota |
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08-19-22 | Texans v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans @ 10 ET - Under new head coach Lovie Smith, the Texans are hungrier for the win here. However, hard to trust them to get it in my opinion but what I like here is that the effort will be there. Houston off a low-scoring win last week and that has led to some extra value this week on the over. The Texas threw 3 interceptions last week and I do not expect a repeat of that here. Also, Houston was fortunate to give up only 13 points in that game. I like the fact that Rams QB Perkins had a good game last week and I expect him to come up big again this week. With LA likely to play solid at home (even though it is back-ups) and with having allowed over 300 yards of offense last week and being somewhat fortunate to win (29-22 final), I expect a lot of points here. Texans will get theirs but Rams will hang around in this game too. I feel the side could really go either way but look for some solid scoring here. The high-scoring trending we saw in Week 1 preseason continued even with an under in last night's Bears win at Seattle as that one totaled 38 points and very nearly ended up being a late bad beat for under players but it hung on. The point is that scoring continues to be up and I expect that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams |
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08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 40 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 40 in Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears @ 8 ET - After all the high-scoring games in Week 1 of preseason now your seeing the result in inflated totals this week. That doesn't mean it will be all unders this week for sure but, rather, it just means there is some extra value in certain spots. In my mind, the Thursday night game is one of those! The Bears only allowed 205 yards of offense to the Chiefs last week. Keep in mind their new head coach was a defensive coordinator. They allowed a TD just before half last week or the final could have easily been 19 to 7 instead of 19 to 14 in that game. Also, their 4 scoring drives in the game, all in the 2nd half, averaged just 37.5 yards apiece so it is not like they were moving the ball like crazy on offense in that game. The Seahawks are off a high-scoring loss at Pittsburgh and I look for them to shore some things up on defense after the way that game played out. History is certainly on our side in that regard as Seattle entered last week's game with 6 of last 7 preseason games being unders over the past two preseasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* UNDER 40 in Seattle |
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08-14-22 | Vikings +5 v. Raiders | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - This line just too high in my opinion. The Raiders not only being asked to win this game but to win it by a sizable margin. Note that though Vegas won last week in the HOF Game that was against a dreadful Jaguars team that has now been outscored 51 to 24 in two preseason games this season and has lost 8 of last 9 preseason games. Now Raiders laying sizable points against a Vikings team that has seen its last 7 games feature only 1 game that was a loss by more than 4 points for them. Vegas head coach McDaniels came from a Patriots organization use to winning. Feel certain there is a little more hunger for the younger O'Connell here a little more eager. He came from the Rams organization but prior to that was mired in the Washington organization. I feel he and the Vikes are being undervalued here. 10* MINNESOTA +4.5 |
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08-13-22 | Panthers v. Washington Commanders OVER 37 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Washington Commanders vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The QB play here should key an over. Excellent QB rotations for a preseason game and that should help push this one way over. I like the QB situation for both Carolina (now with Mayfield added) and Washington (Wentz expected to play) and plenty of talent behind these guys read to battle it out. The Commanders have allowed 23 points per game in last 4 preseason games and Carolina has allowed at least 19 points in 4 of last 6 preseason games. Look for this one to get into the 40s as we see some strong quarterback play throughout. Really each team is 3-deep with solid talent at the QB position. Like this factor plus the fact we have seen the games trending to high-scoring so far in this pre-season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 37 in Washington |
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08-12-22 | Jets v. Eagles +110 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +110 @ New York Jets @ 7:30 ET - The spread on this game is a pick'em and as of very early gameday morning you can even find some even money and plus money on the money line with the home team Eagles here. I like the value here. This is the only home game that Philly has in the preseason. They are the better team and the deeper team. Yes this is preseason but the Eagles depth and overall team quality will shine through and I think they want to get a win here at home. Philly will not be home again until September 19th when, in week 2 of regular season, they host the Vikings. Again, this is only preseason but I expect a strong effort from the deeper team. The Jets were horrid as the season went on last year and ended up dead last in defensive categories and nearly dead last on offense too. New York is just a very bad team and the Eagles tied them last year and lost 6-0 the year before (in pre-season games) and they will get a little pre-season revenge this year. Those games were in New York and now they meet in Philly and the 3rd time is the charm. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - It is a new year. Just like we saw the Hall of Fame Game go over the total after a history of being dominated by unders, there is a changing of the guard underway. The Ravens have long been known for preseason success as coach John Harbaugh has shown a hunger to win even in the games that do not count. However, this Baltimore team is not what it once was and, even if the Ravens win this game, I expect the margin of victory to be 3 or less points. Note that Baltimore has been a good team for many years in regular season too for sure, not just preseason. But last year they had an 8-9 SU record in the regular season and went 2-9 ATS as a favorite! The Titans went 12-5 SU last season and are now 23-10 SU last two regular seasons SU. As for ATS records, Tennessee went 6-1 ATS as an underdog last season and is now 9-2 ATS the last seasons as an underdog. Again, this is OF COURSE not a regular season game but I see value here with a high quality team catching more than a field goal against a team trending the wrong direction that is over-valued because of past pre-season successes. Like I said in the lead-in for this one, it is a new year! Don't get me wrong, Ravens still a high-quality team but so too are Titans and big value with the points here in my opinion. 10* TENNESSEE +3.5 |
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08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars OVER 30.5 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 30.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8 ET in HOF Game in Canton, OH - This is a road game for both teams of course because it is a neutral site game. Note that last pre-season saw the Raiders two road games both total at least 33 points. 2020 there was no preseason. 2019, the Raiders had two road games and a neutral site game. All 3 of those games away from home totaled at least 32 points. So this is a 5-0 situation for Las Vegas in terms of NFLX games away from home totaling at least 32 points. As for the Jaguars, both their road preseason games (and their home game for that matter) all totaled at least 36 points with the two roadies both totaling at least 34 points! So the point is that we have a double perfect situation here with 5-0 L5 for the Raiders and a 3-0 L3 for Jacksonville. This one gets to at least 32 (but I expect much more) and yet we are working with a total of only 30.5 points because of the reputation of the HOF game to be a low-scoring grinder. This total has ended up too low in the markets in my opinion. Keep in mind, each team has new head coaches and Pederson is an offensive-minded coach and former NFL QB and McDaniels was the offensive coordinator of the Patriots for more than a decade. No matter who is on the field here, yes a lot of unknowns, there will be more offense than most are expecting given all of the above. Keep in mind, Jags have allowed 24 points per game last 7 NFLX and Raiders allowed 23 points per game L5 NFLX non-home games. 10* OVER 30.5 in Hall of Fame Game |
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08-29-21 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 36 | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #125 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have a battle going on for the #2 QB spot behind Dak Prescott. Now that Prescott has been pronounced fit for week one of the regular season, that means Gilbert and Rush will definitely be fully turned loose in this game to battle it out in this contest. Considering they are up against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 23 points in each game thus far, I like our chances for plenty of Cowboys points here. Both of these teams are winless on the preseason and that is even with Dallas having already played 3 games thus far. I don't think either team will hold back in going for the win here no matter that it is a preseason game. As for the Jaguars QB situation, of course we may not see starter Trevor Lawrence in this one but CJ Beathard has been solid for the Jags in the preseason. In fact, other than the 2 picks thrown by Gardner Minshew (now traded away to Eagles), take a look at the Jags other QB numbers: 50 of 75 for 443 yards and 4 TDs and no INTs. Considering that as well as a very aggressive effort from the Cowboys QBs in this one I am expecting a high-scoring contest here. 10* OVER 36 in Dallas |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +3.5 | 37-3 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #114 Saturday 8* Washington Football Team +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 6 ET - The Ravens have won 19 straight preseason games to tie an NFL record set by, of course, Vince Lombardi's Packers. While I know Baltimore head coach Harbaugh has a special hunger for winning and would like to win this game, he will not risk injury to key players in doing so. That said, and in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the points with Washington. Keep in mind that, based on the +3.5 available as of early game day morning, the Ravens could win this game and yet we still get the cash. Statistically Washington has been better than expected in the preseason and that is even with allowing a very late 91 yard TD run in their first game of the preseason. In fact, had that "meaningless" run not happened in the final minute of a game the Patriots were winning by 2 points, Washington would have some of the best defensive stats in the entire league in this preseason. Either way, Washington has looked quite solid on both sides of the ball statistically and I feel strongly that they will be tough to put away here. Keep in mind they are 1-1 in this preseason and the loss would have been by just 2 points were it not for that big late run. Also, the Ravens first win in the preseason was by just 3 points and, if you have noticed recently, there have been an awful lot of late comebacks for dogs. It is just hard to cover numbers in the preseason and I like siding with the points and feel we have extra value here because the home dog has been solid this preseason and is going to give the Ravens all they can handle here. I say the Baltimore streak ends here but I will grab the points as added insurance just in case. 8* WASHINGTON +3.5 |
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08-27-21 | Colts -126 v. Lions | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX 8* Indianapolis Colts Money Line -125 @ Detroit Lions @ 7 ET - This line opened up in the -4.5 range and dropped to a -2 and I feel the best value is now with the money line. The Colts were nearly a -200 on the money line when this one opened up and now they are down to the -125 range. Do you really think the odds makers were that far off in their original projections for this game? I sure do not! The Colts are the much better team and I know QB Ehrlinger has had some turnover issues with interceptions but he is still a high-quality QB from a major college program (Texas) and he'll be better in this one I am sure. As for QB Eason he has played very well and I expect that to continue here against a bad Lions team. Detroit is 0-2 SU in this preseason and has lost 6 straight preseason games and 9 of their last 10. The Colts get it done again here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS Money Line -125 |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The more I looked at this game the more I liked it. The Jaguars have a bad recent preseason history but keep in mind they now have a new coach with Urban Meyer calling the shots. This team is hungry to improve and they certainly played a "cleaner" game last week than the Saints did. Yes both teams are off losses but Jacksonville turned the ball over just once while New Orleans had 6 turnovers in their game against the Ravens. The overall trajectory of these teams is going opposite directions. Of course I am not saying that in a regular season game the Jags are better than the Saints. I am not saying that all. But the point is that the Saints were 12-4 last season but Drew Brees has retired and this team lost a lot of defensive talent from last year's roster. This team will be on the decline this season. As for the Jaguars, off a 1-15 season, of course the only way to go is up but truly this team could be respectable this season and had a strong draft and there is some positive energy within this Jacksonville organization right now. With how sloppy New Orleans was last week, I feel we have a good shot at an outright upset here for the Jaguars and I certainly like the value with the points. Keep in mind, we have seen a good amount of upsets in week 2 of the preseason as well as some underdog ATS covers without notching the upset. Good value here getting a handful of points given all of the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE +4 |
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08-22-21 | Giants v. Browns OVER 35 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 35 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - Pair of Philly guys, both 39 years old, are squaring off in this coaching match-up. Joe Judge of the Giants and Kevin Stefanski of the Browns both grew up in Philly at the same time and have held joint practices this week leading into this game. This total opened up at a 38.5 and has dropped all the way to a 35. I see good value with the over. Cleveland played fast last week. The game had a good pace for both the Browns and their opponent. Cleveland did blitz some in that game and put quite a bit of pressure on the Jaguars. I do not expect that same aggressive game plan here. I actually expect a bit of a friendly game if you will because of this coaching match-up. That said, the Giants are off a disastrous effort and scored just 7 points last week and need to be much better this week. I feel certain they will open up the offense quite a bit more this week and, even though this game will again be all about the back-ups, look for plenty of points. Both teams cut loose a little bit here and I just do not expect a lot of special defensive scheming, etc. Love fading line moves and based on the Browns being at home and likely to dictate a fast pace again on offense here, I look for this one to fly over the total. 10* OVER 35 in Cleveland |
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08-21-21 | Bills +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - NFLX 10* Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - Both teams off wins last week and Chicago did win by 7 while Buffalo won by just 1. However, I was impressed by the Bills defense too and note that they have now won 6 straight preseason games. They opened up as the favorite in this match-up in the early lines but are now a 4.5 point dog. Maybe, after a 6-0 SU win, the Bills do finally drop an NFLX game but that does not mean they do not cover. Many NFLX games are tight and, in fact, Chicago entered this season 3-6 SU the last 2 preseasons and 1 of the wins was by just a single point. The fact is there is too much value here regardless of the plan of how coaches use starters here, etc. Buffalo is the better team and has better depth and that will key the victory in crunch time as the Bills get the job done here. 10* BUFFALO +4.5 |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #404 Friday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8 ET - Both teams won by identical 19-16 scores last week but I like the fact that Arizona's came on a momentum-building last-second field goal. Also, the Cardinals are now getting 3 points as a home dog here. I know that Kansas City is planning to run their starters quite a bit in the first half of this game but this still a Chiefs team that had won just 1 of last 4 road preseason games prior to last week's tight win. It is the back-ups that often decide the final outcome of preseason games. Also, KC went just 1-3 overall in the most recent preseason. The Cardinals have now won 2 of last 3 preseason home games and offer solid value as an underdog here. Arizona proved last week they will push hard to win a preseason game and I look for them to get the job done again this week. If they do fall short the +3 could prove to be great value. 5 of the 16 games last week were decided by 3 or less points. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #402 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 vs New England Patriots @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles blew a 13-0 late 1st half lead last week and lost 24-16 as they are outscored 24-3 the rest of the way. Philadelphia is likely to struggle in the regular season this year but keep in mind this is preseason. With a first year head coach who demands plenty from his players, I look for a much better effort this week after the ugly 2nd half last week for the Eagles. As for the Patriots, a long TD run is what sealed their victory last week as they were clinging a 2-point lead at the time. The key here is that other than that run, one could easily argue that Washington was the much better team in that game. The Pats, not including that long TD run, were outgained by 138 yards. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS the last 2 preseasons when off a home win and they allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in those 3 games. Look for them to struggle again on the road in that role here and the Eagles bounce back from last week's second half debacle. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts -3 | 18-21 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #134 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - Hopefully we will be losing this pick at halftime. All kidding aside, this has been an unreal start to the post-season as 3 of my 4 picks saw my team with the lead at halftime and the combined score in our favor in those 3 games was 32 to 10. As faithful followers know, we won NONE of those 3 games. Unlike all of those games that "flipped the script" in the 2nd half, of course the lone pick out of my four that was losing at the half did NOT turn around in the 2nd half. In fact, maybe it is best to hope for a tie score in this one at the half! But I digress so back to the keys here as we look to get a well-deserved win...the Colts are the better team and the better team and I love the QB battle going on between Eason and Ehrlinger for the #2 spot behind the already-injured Wentz. Both Eason and Ehrlinger will be "turned loose" a bit in this one by an offensive-minded head coach, Frank Reich and these guys are expected to play 3 quarters combined. Then, in the 4th quarter it is expected to be Brett Hundley and he has NFL starter experience from his time with the Packers. In most recent preseason in 2019 he completed 68% of his passes and threw for 2 touchdowns with no INT's. I like the Colts QB rotation throughout this game and, as the better overall team and with the coaching edge in this game too and better team depth, the home team should win by a comfortable margin here. The Panthers have solid starters but many will not even see the field here and they do not have the depth the Colts do and also I have a lot of concerns about Carolina's offensive line play. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -3 |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Bears | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears have all the hype with Justin Fields at QB now but this is still a preseason battle likely to be close and plus in the only preseason HC Brian Flores has had with the Dolphins they went 3-1 in 2019 and the only loss was by 2 points. He likes to do some different schemes even in preseason and play around with things so he could keep this inconsistent Bears offense a bit off-balance all game long no matter which units are out there. That said, Miami is also off a 10-6 season has some decent team depth and this is a Bears team whose defense has not been the same in recent years. Also, note that Chicago has gone only 3-6 SU in preseason the last two years and 1 of those wins was by just a single point. Too much underdog value to pass up on here. 8* MIAMI +3.5 |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons -115 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter – Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (Pick) vs Tennessee Titans @ 7 ET – I like that fact that new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was most recently the offensive coordinator for Tennessee the past two seasons and, overall, had spent the past decade coaching in the Titans organization. The Falcons do not have a good history in pre-season recently but keep in mind the Titans are only 2-6 in preseason under Vrabel. Also, Atlanta should be the hungrier team here with a new coach and ready to turn things around after a 4-12 season. The fact he is facing his former team sweetens this one. There is a reason the normally better regular season team in this match-up is actually the dog. Do not let the line fool you. Grab the home team. 10* ATLANTA |
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08-12-21 | Steelers v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #106 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (PK) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles had a horrible season last year and are likely destined for another rough one this year. However, Philly does have a new coach and a young one at that. Nick Sirianni will be hungrier than most in the preseason and is going to demand a high compete level from his team even in a meaningless game. This Eagles team is going to struggle in the regular season barring a miracle turnaround because they need to time to jell and have had major roster turnover in recent seasons. However, in the preseason they could be a bit of a surprise given all of the above factors. The Steelers do have a solid preseason history including going in recent seasons but still went just 1-1 on the road in each of the last two preseasons. Coming off a win over the Cowboys in the HOF Game last week makes this road game even less important for the Steelers. As for the Eagles, new head coach Sirianni and company will be desperate for something to latch onto early in the year and that includes preseason where many roster battles are going on. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Steelers | 3-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
TV Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #101 Thursday 8* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers in HOF Game @ Canton, OH @ 8 ET - The Steelers have a recent history of ATS success in preseason action so I totally understand the line here. However, I think the Cowboys are coming in a little extra hungry in this pre-season and I like their QB rotation. Of course pre-season, and especially an "extra game" like this that goes early is all about fighting for roster spots, etc. But with new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn calling the shots for Dallas D there could be a little extra aggression on that side of the ball. This Cowboys D has a lot to prove here and I feel they step up well throughout this game. The HOF games are known for being low-scoring battles and that means even some extra value in this one with having the points on your side. By the way, the Cowboys were just 2-2 SU in most recent pre-season but one of the losses was by just 2 points. The Steelers are just 2-2 SU in road pre-season games last 2 years plus one of their home wins last season was by just 2 points. Having the points could come in handy here but also would not be surprised to see the hungrier team, with a lot of roster battles going on, get the upset win here. Grab the points. 8* DALLAS +2.5 |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals +6 v. Vikings | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #267 Saturday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The betting markets are enamored with the Vikings here as this line got driven up from a 4.5 to a 7 before settling in at a 6. Yes the Vikes have a great preseason history under head coach Mike Zimmer but lets not forget they went only 3-5 ATS the past two preseasons. Also, they were 0-2 ATS in home preseason games in BOTH 2017 and 2018. That said, after a big win and cover last week at home, I do not expect a repeat this week. The Cardinals have a first year head coach in Kliff Klingsbury and new head coaches tend to be a good "play on" team in preseason action. I am not saying the Cards win this game but I expect them to stay inside the inflated number and, certainly an outright upset would not be a surprise. Arizona went 3-2 SU in preseason games played away from the home the past two seasons and one of those losses came by just 2 points. I look for them to hang in this game for the full sixty as well! In their last 4 true road games, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS and the only SU/ATS loss was a meaningless week 4 game in 2017. Week 3 always carries more meaning and the Cardinals have covered this game each of the past two seasons while the Vikings have not. Minnesota drops to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Give me the big points with the underdog Cardinals. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-23-19 | Bills -2 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #265 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8 ET - In regular season NFL over the past two decades I have enjoyed plenty of success fading line moves. Knowing when and why to go contrarian to the market moves is a key to beating regular season NFL games. However, preseason NFL is an entirely different animal and the line moves, especially in 2019, have proven to go the right way more often than not. That said, despite a move here (which of course is generally sharp and not square money when it comes to preseason), I still see great value with the Bills laying as little as a -2 in this match-up. When you see a 2-0 preseason team getting the action over an 0-2 team in preseason you know it is sharp money as, generally speaking, backing the winless teams in Week 3 of preseason over undefeated teams is a smart play. The key to this match-up is the Lions defense has been atrocious in this pre-season. The Bills defense has been much better. Also, the Lions are now 1-5 in preseason games under head coach Matt Patricia. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 preseason road games. Buffalo's QB rotation has been performing much better than Detroit's counterparts. Also, history is not on the side of the Lions here either as they are actually 4-10 ATS in preseason action when they enter a game off two or more consecutive preseason losses. Look for the Bills to improve to 5-1 ATS in preseason games under head coach Sean McDermott the past 3 years combined. 10* BUFFALO |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #431 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8 ET - Despite 27 points scored in the 2nd half of last week's game (a good sign for expecting plenty of points the following week), the Broncos game last week fell one point short of going over the total. Yes, the Hall of Fame Game this season also included Denver and also resulted in an under. But I can not ignore the fact that the Broncos O/U went a perfect 4-0 in preseason action in 2018. After back to back unders to open the preseason, the over trending resumes for the Broncos here. The 49ers had an easy over when they got drilled by Denver in 2017 in preseason action. That is one of 3 overs (against just 1 under) that San Francisco has in their last 4 meetings with AFC West opponents in preseason action. Both teams want to see some bigger offensive production in this one after some struggles thus far in preseason action. They each have the QB rotations to get the job done too and, again, I like the big scoring we saw in the 2nd half of the Broncos/Seahawks to carry over to this game which is also Denver's first home game of this preseason. As for the Niners, they did score 10 points in the 4th quarter of last week's game and I expect the back-ups (always a key in preseason) to again lead to plenty of points in this match-up. Look for the over in Broncos to improve to 3-0 in preseason action when they enter a game off an ATS loss. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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08-18-19 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 42 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #427 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers New Orleans Saints @ 4 ET - The Chargers had their run game going last week which means they'll work more on their passing game this week. The fact is their offensive attack was quite balanced in last week's loss at Arizona. The problem was that LA had two key turnovers that took points off the board. Los Angeles scored only 13 points because they fumbled at the Cardinals 2 to end a long drive and they also threw a pick at the Cards 20 to end another drive. Chargers will put more points on the board Sunday as they face a Saints team that lost 34-25 last week. Also, last preseason the over was 2-0 in New Orleans road games as the Saints scored an average of 30 points per game. Last week's 24 point effort means NO has scored 24 or more points in 4 of their last 5 preseason games. The over went 3-1 in Chargers preseason games last year. Also, LA has allowed an average of 28 points per game in their past 4 preseason home games. This total opened up in the mid-40s and has dropped to the low-40s as of early game day morning. Take advantage of the O/U move as the Saints are 7-1-1 to the over when playing with 8 days of rest between preseason games. The over is 16-9 in preseason games for LA when they are off a game in which they scored 14 points or less. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers |
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08-17-19 | Browns v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #417 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 4 ET - The Browns put up 30 points last week and had over 400 passing yards. The Colts only scored 16 points last week but I like the fact they scored 13 in the fourth quarter and that they are at home for their Week 2 match-up. This total may look a little high since it opened at 43 but these numbers are not pulled out of thin air so think about that for a moment. The number was set this way because of these QB rotations and the way they are expected to play this one in terms of play-calling, etc. In other words, don't let the big number keep you away. The fact is that the Browns are fully capable of another big day offensively but the Colts will score much better on their home field. Cleveland scored an average of 27.5 points per game in their two road games in pre-season last year. Indianapolis scored an average of 22 points per game in their 4 preseason games last year. The Colts will make some adjustments and throw more after struggling in the first half of last week's game. Of course both teams have some extra rest here since this is a Saturday game and they played on Thursday last week. The over is a long-term 16-9 in pre-season action when the Colts are playing after a week in which they played a Thursday game. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis |
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08-16-19 | Bears +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #413 Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 7:30 ET - This line opened up as low as a pick'em. This is despite the fact the Giants are at home, playing their final home game of the preseason, coming off a win, and have a QB battle going on. The Bears enter off a double digit loss at home, now are on the road, and have a less impressive QB situation in terms of the back-ups. That said, this line has been deemed a major mistake by the markets and has been driven up to a 2.5 on the Giants after opening up as low as a pick'em. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds makers and I am going contrarian, as I so often do, and fading the market move. The Bears defense, back-ups mind you, were the key reason Chicago lost last week's game as they were outscored 17-3 after half-time. Teams respond after a game like that and I expect the Bears to have a little more "fire in the belly" in the second half of this game. Of course it is the 2nd half of these games that so often determine the outcome of these preseason match-ups. That said, the fact the Bears starters are likely to see little action here, with many sitting, is not the key to the outcome. Chicago is 5-1 ATS run as an underdog in preseason games. Also, as a road dog of 3 or less points the past two seasons, the Bears went a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Giants are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games in the preseason and they entered this season 0-4 ATS as a favorite in the past preseasons. Give me the road dog here! 10* CHICAGO |
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08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens OVER 36.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #407 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 40 down to a 36.5 as of early morning on game day. I like the added value here based on what I am hearing about QB rotations, etc. Yes the Ravens shut out the Jaguars last week but have you looked at the Jacksonville QB rotation behind Nick Foles? Yikes! In any event, the Packers are going to put up much more of a challenge to the Ravens defense. Green Bay scored 28 points last week and the Ravens scored 29 points last week. All those pounding the under here are not giving enough consideration to the point production these two teams had last week. Also, the fact that the Packers have a young head coach (LaFleur) and the Ravens have a coach (Harbaugh) known for his desire to win preseason games, that means you have a situation where both teams are likely to push a little harder for a win. The point being that whichever team is down late is going to be throwing plenty, possibly running no-huddle sets, etc. The over is 14-9 the last 23 times the Ravens have been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Green Bay is 4-2 to the over the last 6 times they have played a non-conference opponent in preseason action. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-10-19 | Rams +5 v. Raiders | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8 ET - The Raiders opened up as 2.5 point favorites in the earliest of lines that popped up globally on this game. Oakland then got be up to as high as a 5.5 before settling in at a -5 as of very early Saturday morning. The perception is that Gruden and the Raiders care more than McVay and the Rams. However, Gruden was with Oakland last year when they lost to Los Angeles in the preseason. Of course McVay was with the Rams then just as he was also in 2017 when LA also beat the Raiders in the preseason. Lets not forget that Oakland won only 4 regular season games last year. This season the Raiders are again projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. That said, with depth being an important factor in preseason outcomes, just how good can Oakland's depth be? Truly it is not o the level of the Rams. That said, even if one could surmise that the Raiders are the hungrier team here will that really translate to the less talented team and the team with less depth wining this game in convincing fashion? I think not! Give me the generous points being offered to the Rams as I would also like to note that LA is 2-1 in weeks 1 to 3 in each of the last two preseasons both SU and ATS and that included a loss by just 2 points. Remember week 4 of preseason is always a truly meaningless week so lets take that out of the equation. So the point is that the Rams 6 preseason games under McVay played in Weeks 1 through 3 of his two seasons have resulted in just ONE loss by more than two points! Give me the team that "supposedly" doesn't care here and "supposedly" will get blown out despite all the facts stated above! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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08-09-19 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #273 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:30 ET - The Steelers were 3-1 to the over in the preseason last year and they scored an average of 30 points per game! The Buccaneers have a new head coach in Bruce Arians. In Thursday's games, teams that had a new head coach that was coaching their first game of preseason (so excluding Denver as they played in HOF Game last week) went 4-1 to the over! Arians last was a head coach in 2017 with the Cardinals. In that preseason the Cards played in the HOF Game so they had a total of 5 games. Of course that final game (Week 4 of preseason) every year is truly a crap-shoot but, in the first 4 games of that NFLX season, Arians' Cardinals averaged 21 points per game. Tampa Bay, of course, had a different head coach last season, it is worth noting they were a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. The Bucs, not including the particularly meaningless Week 4 game, scored an average of 29 points per game in the first 3 preseason games. Considering the QB rotations for this game, the nice weather in Pittsburgh this evening, and the aforementioned high-scoring trending...this one has the makings of a game that should get well past 40 in total points. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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08-08-19 | Falcons +4.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #259 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - If you listen to the "experts" the Falcons have no chance here. The line has moved after it opened up at -2.5 and has gone to a -4.5 on Miami in this game. I got absolutely ripped off when I used the Falcons in last week's HOF Game. They outgained the Broncos 261 to 188 yards in that game and were a +3 dog that also forced two fumbles. However, a late game interception (their only turnover in the game) followed by a pair of 4th down conversions for Denver in their game-deciding final minutes drive did me in. Keep in mind the Broncos won the game on a 4th and 14 play after already previously converting a 4th down play in that drive. Everyone who had Denver was very lucky. The Falcons defense played a great game and I expect that to be the case again this week. That said I am happy to grab the generous points being offered here. Yes, Atlanta has a poor SU/ATS record in preseason under Dan Quinn but we're still talking about fading the Dolphins here and getting 4.5 points in doing so! Sure Miami has a rookie coach (generally a good play on spot in preseason) and they have a QB battle going on. But how good can a roster be (including for depth) when they are projected to be the WORST team in the NFL this coming season? The fact that Miami also blasted the Falcons in Atlanta in the preseason last year only adds fuel to the fire for the Falcons back-ups in this one. I like their solid and deep defense against a bad Miami team. Keep in mind the Dolphins went 0-3 SU in their other 3 preseason games last season. Also, Miami was a mediocre 2-2 SU the year before in preseason and one of those wins came by just 3 points. That means in the past TWO years the Dolphins only have TWO wins by more than 3 points in preseason action. Give me the points and don't expect any game-ending nonsense to burn us this week! 10* ATLANTA |
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08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons +3 | 14-10 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #242 Thursday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8 ET - Atlanta was as high as a -2 favorite when lines first came out. Now the Falcons are as high as +3 underdog. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta doesn't have a good history of winning in preseason under head coach Dan Quinn and the fact that Denver has a new head coach. However, Vic Fangio certainly isn't new to the NFL. The Broncos head coach has been a defensive coordinator for multiple decades at the NFL level. In other words, the fact that first year head coaches tend to get backed by the betting markets in the preseason has simply led to extra line value in a case like this. Are the Broncos (and HC Fangio) really that much hungrier for a win here? Truly the answer is no! This is preseason and simply a chance for teams to work on things and evaluate personnel. That is particularly the case in an early-season (and extra) preseason contest like the Hall of Fame Game. That said, I am happy to take the underdog here and fade the line movement. In my opinion, the odds makers had it right with the original line set on this game and I am grabbing the extra line value with the Falcons. 8* ATLANTA |
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08-30-18 | Redskins +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #111 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - With the Ravens RG III having a shot to go against his former Redskins teammates and with Baltimore having a chance at an undefeated preseason of course they are going to go all out here and play most all of the starters for most all of the game in an attempt to blow away Washington. Of course I am being facetious here but this is truly an absolutely insane line move that has taken place here. This is week 4 of the preseason. No one cares about this week. Yes there are a few final roster battles going on but, at the end of the day, this is a very unimportant game. That said, where is the drive and the motivation for the Ravens to win this game by a full TD or more? It truly is not there. Of course RG III will want to play well here but what about the supporting cast. Also, how much motivation is it really when it is still preseason? Also, you don't think the Redskins want to contain Griffin too no matter whom is on the field? This line, going from -1.5 all the way up to as high as a -7 as of Tuesday, is simply out of whack. In fact, there is another key element here that also is to the advantage of the undervalued underdog. That factor is that the Ravens, by virtue of having played in the NFL Hall of Fame Game, will be playing their 5th game of the preseason. The last 8 teams in that situation have 0 ATS wins to show for it. One was a push (line was 3), one had their final game cancelled (Dallas/Houston last year) and the other 6 all failed to cover! You can see why I feel there is great value in the big points (biggest offering on the board) being offered in an otherwise meaningless Thursday preseason finale. Yes I understand about preseason QB rotations too and how these guys have played thusfar in the preseason but also keep in mind the Redskins did outscore the Broncos in the 2nd half last week. That said it is those same reserves that will play a critical role this week as well. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #281 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8 ET - There is a common practice in preseason wagering of backing winless teams and fading undefeated teams. However, most of this week's action is already in the books and note that Baltimore (4-0) won again this week, Miami (0-3) lost again this week, Tennessee (0-3) lost again this week, Philadelphia (0-3) lost again this week, Carolina (3-0) won again this week, Atlanta (0-3) lost again this week, Seattle (0-3) lost again this week. As you can see, not only is the undefeated/winless system worthy of being questioned, there is also merit to the fact that playing on the streaks is the better way to go. Of course the reality is that what matters the most in preseason is the coaches approach to the game and how much they care about winning. That is what ends up being a factor at the betting window too. While the Cardinals Steve Wilks is already 2-0 SU and ATS in his preseason debut, the Cowboys Jason Garrett (even with a rare cover in this preseason) is still an ugly long-term 11-20 ATS in preseason games. Based on the coaching factor as well as what I am hearing/seeing in reports from EACH of these camps on how they're going to play this one, I am backing the small road favorite here. Look for the goose egg to stay on the board in the loss column for Arizona and the win column for Dallas. Remember guys, preseason is a different animal compared to betting the NFL regular season. It is with very good reason that there has been a big move toward the Cardinals here with this line! 10* ARIZONA |
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08-25-18 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | 6-16 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #267 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans @ 4 ET - This one opened up as one of the biggest totals on the board for this week's preseason action. Now, as of about 5 hours before kickoff, the total is holding in the range of the 44 that it dropped to. The markets have moved this one down and appear to be fading the under. I am certainly not going to "play games" here and try to time when all the scoring ends for each of these teams. Both have been involved in high-scoring games in each of their two preseason games thus far. As a result, many are just playing the "fade" theory here and feeling that now an under must result after a 2-0 over mark for each thus far. There is no reason to believe that to be the case. Both teams have shown the "style" with which they're going to play this preseason and the result has been plenty of points. Next week it certainly could change as Week 4 of the NFL preseason is always a "unique animal" but in Week 3 things are very likely to stay the same as this is "dress rehearsal" week so teams are fine-tuning everything they've been developing through the preseason thus far. With that said, I see every reason to again expect plenty of points to be scored in this one based on QB rotations, overall player rotations, and the mindset of each coaching staff coming into this one. Another shootout ensues. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #255 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Redskins vs Denver Broncos @ 7:30 ET - Oftentimes it is hot and humid in DC at this time of year but a cool front just moved through and it is going to be very pleasant weather this evening in DC. That certainly won't hurt our chances of a high-scoring match-up here as energy levels should remain high throughout. Broncos games are 2-0 to the over this preseason and both of those games were at home. Now Denver is on the road where the over is a perfect 3-0 in their last 3 preseason games. The Broncos have scored an average of 24 points per game in their last 4 preseason games on the road. However, Denver has also allowed an average of 23 points per game in their last 3 preseason games away from home. The Redskins, after seeing their first game go over the total, did stay under the total in Week 2 of the preseason. However, Washington moved the ball well but scored only 15 points because they settled for 5 field goals. Flip that to a more "normal" 3 TDs and 2 FGs for their five scores and you've got 27 points on the board instead of 15. The Redskins already lost RB Derrius Guice to injury so don't be surprised if they stay away from a lot of "pounding the ground" against Denver's defense. Last week only 4 of the Skins 20 first downs came on the ground. They'll continue to emphasize the passing attack here which is always good when you're on an over. As for the Broncos, their first two games have seen the totals average 58.5 points. I am very comfortable that we get this one to at least the upper 40s in points! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +3 v. Browns | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #251 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8 ET - Contrarian as per usual. The very first numbers that came out on this game actually had the Eagles favored by 2. The line not only moved to the Browns but even as a high as a 4 point favorite. Of course this is a 6-point swing and I love the value on the other side of moves like this. I wanted to wait and make sure the movement settled out before releasing my pick on this one. As of Wednesday mid-day it appears quite settled in the 3-point range and I am going with the Eagles plus the points here. Yes their first-team offense has failed to score a TD yet but you're going to see a different effort this week from the Eagles. This is a dress rehearsal week for NFL teams as the starters are seeing their most action of the preseason this week and likely won't touch the field next week. That said, we're getting the Super Bowl champion Eagles plus a field goal and we're fading a Browns team that is perennially the worst team in the NFL. That said, and with week 3 of the NFL preseason being the one that most closely resembles a regular season game, I like the value with winless Philadelphia plus the points. Yes the Browns went 4-0 last year in the preseason but they also went 0-4 EACH of the prior two years. Keep in mind, even though it is only preseason the Eagles did have to face the Steelers and Patriots in their first two preseason games. Those are two of the top teams in the NFL that certainly are much deeper and talented than the Browns are. The point is that even when the 2nd and 3rd stringers come into this game, the Eagles hold a big edge over the Browns. Doug Pederson entered this year with a 6-2 record in preseason games with Philly. They've already lost 2 games this preseason. In other words, don't look for them to lose another...at least not this week...of course next week is always a "proceed with extreme caution" week! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Game #432 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Colts opened up as a 1.5 point favorite for this game but now are as much as a 1.5 point dog as of early game day morning. Of course the betting markets are jumping all over the Ravens here due to Baltimore's success in the preseason. Indeed Jim Harbaugh has a great record in preseason action but do you really think the odds makers aren't aware of this when they set these lines? The fact is that the betting markets are ignoring the fact that the Colts are very hungry right now with new head coach Frank Reich. They got the win at Seattle last week and, keep in mind, Indianapolis did score 5 times against the Seahawks. The reason for "only" 19 points was 4 field goals and just 1 touchdowns but there is no argument about the fact that the Colts played quite well last week. Now Indy makes their home debut under coach Reich and it is on Monday Night with ESPN cameras rolling. Of course it is still "just" preseason but I have no doubt that, given this situation, the Colts are going to "bring it" tonight. Conversely, the Ravens are off of a blowout win versus the Rams last week (33-7) and teams oftentimes fall short after big rout wins like that. Give me the more motivated team, the hungrier team, the home dog, in this one! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #419 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders @ 4 ET - Earlier in the week this total was as high as a 42.5 and now, as of game day morning, there are shops with this one as low as a 38. First off, we have value here but, secondly, there is a situational aspect to this game that I believe the markets are not measuring properly at all. That is the fact that these teams open up the regular season in Week 1 on Monday September 10th. Of course that means the teams are wanting to be extremely vanilla in this match-up. This is part of what is driving the markets to move this total lower and lower. However, the reality is that the fact that the defenses are each going to be extremely vanilla here is what should really be factored into it. If you're not showing special coverage packages in your secondary or you're not putting together different stunts or looks or blitz packages, a defense is pretty easy to beat just with regular play-calling on offense. That is the key point here and that is the reasoning behind why I expect this game, perhaps more than any other one this preseason, to play out like a complete dress rehearsal. As a result, I expect the end product to be more than enough offense to get over the low total posted on this game. With both teams off of Week 1 games where their offenses did not put up many points, there has been an over-reaction from the markets. This game is highly likely to play out much differently than many expect as the key is going to be very vanilla defensive schemes. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #412 Friday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - There is a common misconception that beating NFLX is just about fading a team that won the prior week or going against a team that lost the prior week. However, take a look at the results so far this preseason with that theory. The Bears lost the Hall of Fame Game and then also lost in Week 1. The Ravens won the Hall of Game and then also won in Week 1. Now, week 2 got underway last night and the Eagles lost again (just like in Week 1) to the Patriots (whom had also won in Week 1). The Packers and Steelers each had won in Week 1 so their match-up last night didn't fit the system. As for the Jets and Redskins, yes theirs fit the system with Jets off of a win and Redskins off of a loss and it did cash as Washington won. However, the Redskins won that game by the slimmest of margins on a game ending field goal. The point being that this system is already just 1-3 with the one win (Washington) certainly unimpressive while the losses with this system (Bears loss was tight) did include Ravens blasting their foe in Week 2 and the Patriots crushing the Eagles tonight. Now you can see why I am fading the public misconception (and the market move here) and going against the 0-1 Dolphins with the 1-0 Panthers in Week 2. This line opened up at a 4 in a number of the big shops earlier this week. Now it is down to a 3 as of game day morning and I am grabbing the extra value here. The odds makers had this at 4 earlier this week with plenty of good reason. The Dolphins have allowed 26 points or more in 3 of their last 4 preseason games dating back to last season. Overall, Miami has allowed an average of 24.5 points per game in their 4 preseason road games the past two seasons. Carolina has allowed 19 points or less in all 4 of their preseason home games the past two seasons. The Panthers have allowed an average of just 14.8 points per game in those 4 preseason home games. Given those numbers and knowing Carolina is the better and deeper team and has the home/road edge here and you can plainly see why I am backing the Panthers here and laying the small number. 8* CAROLINA |
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08-16-18 | Steelers +5.5 v. Packers | 34-51 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #405 Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - Everyone is lining up on Green Bay in this game as the line on the Packers has moved from a 2.5 all the way up to a 5.5 as of game day morning. Of course I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move here. Both teams had big wins last week and I feel that sets this one up to play out as a very close game. With the Steelers win last week at Philly, the road team is now 7-2 SU in Pittsburgh's last 9 preseason games. Also, one of the two losses for the traveling team came by just 4 points. In other words, if you took the road team and had +5.5 points in each of the Steelers last 9 preseason games, you would have an 8-1 (89%) ATS record! Hence the value here with the big points on the road and grabbing the Steelers. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay has had a great preseason record in recent seasons and has performed well at home but there has been an over-reaction by the markets here and so many preseason games are decided by small margins. That is why you see the vast majority of lines set in the pick'em to 3 point range nearly every single game and every single week in the preseason. Now that we know the Packers have to beat us by 6 or more to lose this bet, I am stepping in as Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a reputation, even in preseason, of being quite competitive. I just don't see this game being decided by more than 3 or 4 points. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos OVER 35.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NFL Game #279 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9 ET - When most people think of the Vikings and Broncos the first thing that comes to mind is defense. That said, regular season and pre-season handicapping are two entirely different animals and the focus for both teams in this match-up is going to production on offense. The interesting dynamic too is that the Vikings and Broncos each have quarterbacks previously with the opponent they're facing today. Certainly don't expect to see much of Case Keenum here but Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter will play a lot here against their former team. Meanwhile, behind Keenum it will be Paxton Lynch playing hard for the #2 spot in a battle with Chad Kelly. I feel the extra dynamics of Siemian and Sloter against former organization and a good battle at the back-up QB spot for the Broncos should lead to a rather entertaining affair here. The total has risen from its opener and with two teams that most consider "defensive teams" and yet a total on the rise in a preseason game you know that it is likely sharp money that is involved in the move. Add my sharp money to the pile as well and look for this one to fly over the total. Perfect weather for this one too. 8* OVER the total in Denver |
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08-10-18 | Falcons +4 v. Jets | 0-17 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #275 Friday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New York Jets @ 7:30 ET - Similar to last night's play (Steelers OVER which went OVER before halftime) I am looking to take advantage of what the markets are creating off of long-term trending. The market is making a big move toward the Jets here in part because New York head coach Todd Bowles has an 8-4 ATS mark in preseason while Falcons coach Dan Quinn has a 4-8 ATS mark in preseason. However, lets take a closer look at just how their preseason games have unfolded because the fact is the Jets are only 6-6 SU under Bowles while the Falcons are just "a tick" behind at 5-7 under Quinn. This line was very close to a pick'em when it first came out and now is all the way up to a -4 on New York in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Jets only have one win by more than 4 points in preseason action under Bowles the past two seasons. Other than a crazy 32-31 loss to the Giants last year in preseason, the Jets have averaged scoring only 13 points per game in their other 7 preseason games under Bowles the past two seasons. As for the Falcons, they've held their opponent to 17 points or less in 6 of their 8 preseason games under Quinn the past two years. As you can see, the Jets are unlikely to score a whole lot here and it is tough to cover more than a field goal spread when you're not scoring many points! Also, the Falcons have averaged scoring 19 points per game in their last 3 preseason road games with a posted total of 40 or less. The O/U on this game is in the mid-30s and I am happy to grab the value here with the undervalued dog. Yes it is "only" preseason but I don't foresee the Falcons again going 0-4 like they did last season. Look for a very tight game in New York tonight and grab the points! 8* ATLANTA |
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08-09-18 | Steelers v. Eagles OVER 33 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #259 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7 ET - Classic case of long-term data giving us short-term value. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is known for trending under in preseason games. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson also has trended under in his two seasons as a head coach with Philadelphia. As a result of this, the total on this game has moved from a 35 to a 33 and is currently the lowest total on the board for Thursday's games. This has created great value here because the Steelers 4 preseason games last year actually averaged 32 points per game and NONE of them totaled less than 30 points. Indeed Pittsburgh stayed under in all 4 preseason games last year but, as you can see per the above, it wasn't by much! As for the Eagles, 3 of their 4 preseason games last year stayed under but only 1 game totaled less than 33 points! In fact, their two home games averaged a total of 52.5 points scored per game! The market movement here has led to great value on this one there is often more than meets the eye when looking at trending on totals. The key point here being that a closer look shows 33 will likely prove to be too low. The Eagles 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 39 points! The Steelers 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 38.5 points! No weather issues in Philly this evening either. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-02-18 | Bears +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-17 | Win | 102 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #241 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The odds makers are well aware of the success Ravens coach John Harbaugh has displayed in the preseason. He is a long-term 28-12 SU and 26-13-1 ATS. However, this line still was set in very nearly the "pick'em" range when lines first came out on the Hall of Fame game. Of course the betting markets jumped all over Baltimore and drove the line all the way up to very nearly a full field goal here. It has settled in at a 2.5 and my point is that the odds makers don't make a lot of mistakes. The line was originally set at a pick'em on a neutral field with good reason. The fact is that the Bears have a new head coach, Matt Nagy, and certainly are hungry for some success right away. In terms of stats last year in the regular season, the Bears were just as good as the Ravens in terms of defense. Also, in terms of evaluating the offenses based on yardage, Chicago's struggling offense was very close to Baltimore's in terms of full season production. With all that said, I like having the points here in what is likely to be a defensive struggle with points at a premium. Look for the Bears to prove to be a little hungrier in the Hall of Fame game opener keeping in mind that this is the first of five games for these two teams in the pre-season! Motivation will be an important factor and, off of a 5-11 season, the underdog should prove to be the more motivated team all the way around in this one. 8* CHICAGO |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - Seattle is 3-0, 100% perfect this preseason campaign. However, going 4-0 is never easy - it does not happen often. Additionally, going 0-4 is not that likely either and the Raiders enter this one 0-3. The fact is that this is a perfect set up. The very first number on this game that came out was Oakland -2.5 and they then have moved to has high as a +2.5 in some books as of early Tuesday. The line has settled in around 1 or 1.5 since then (as of later Tuesday) but the fact remains this is a significant move toward the Seahawks. I am not surprised given the long-term numbers on Seattle that there has been such a significant move here. But the fact remains this is opening up line value on an Oakland team that is not without some solid depth. Remember that this team did go 12-4 and win their division last season. Their playoff fortunes changed with the loss of their star QB to injury and that certainly has this Oakland team hungry heading into the new year. Even though it's only preseason, I just don't see the Raiders going 0-4 and note that the #2 QB for Seattle, Trevone Boykin threw 7 passes in last week's game with the only "completion" being an interception for his opponent! The fact is that the Seahawks are getting a lot of respect here considering that even though they've beaten Oakland the past few preseasons in the finale, the Raiders have actually held the edge in first downs in each match-up. These teams are not that far apart in terms of talent level and depth and I like the hungrier team at home getting points! Remember even just getting 1.5 points is significant because in preseason teams play for the win as they don't want to tie and go to OT. So if Oakland is ahead by 7 and Seattle scores a TD late they're likely to be going for 2 and a 1-point win. Speaking of tight wins, 5 of the Seahawks 8 preseason games the past 2 seasons were decided by a COMBINED 7 points. 0-4 preseasons for the Raiders are rare and I am grabbing the value with the hungry home dog. Back-up QBs for Oakland get revenge over Seattle's back-up signal-callers for this one after losing the Week 4 preseason match-up last year. 10* OAKLAND |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8 ET - Both teams are 1-1 but San Francisco got blasted last week, embarrassed at home, thanks to 5 turnovers! The 49'ers had 4 fumbles and threw 1 interception versus the Broncos. Suffice to say, the Niners are fired up about responding this week. The Vikings are off of a road loss at Seattle. In regular season action the Vikes would be the play here of course. But this isn't the regular season and motivation is a little tougher to come by. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer does have a good track record in preseason but the Vikes certainly haven't impressed this season. They've been substantially outgained in each of their first two games of this preseason. Even though Minnesota went 4-0 in last year's preseason, 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less. The Niners, with a new head coach, are looking for some positives after a dreadful season last year. With that said, look for a little extra hunger from San Francisco to be a difference maker here as last week's sloppy home loss has the 49'ers fired up. With the move up into the 5 and 5.5 point range on this one, there is a lot of value with the big road dog. 10* SAN FRANCISCO Sunday evening |
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08-26-17 | Jets v. Giants OVER 37 | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach Saturday NFLX 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Giants vs New York Jets @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as most people are looking at the under in this match-up. After all, neither one of these teams have shown a whole lot so far this season. However, they call it exhibition season for a reason and the fact is that when the Jets and Giants meet in their home stadium in New York they've been apt to put on an 'exhibit' or a bit of a 'show' for the fans. In fact, the last 4 seasons this preseason match-up between these city rivals has average a total of 47.8 points per game! None of the 4 games have totaled less than 41 points. With that said, I like the value here being offered with this extremely low total. Trust me, I understand with the point totals these teams have had in their games in this preseason thus far it may seem "risky" but year in and year out this game in New York ends up being quite entertaining for the fans. I expect another "barnburner" in this one and once again, it gets to at least 41 points! The weather will be perfect with clear skies, light winds, and pleasant temperatures for this one in East Rutherford Saturday. 10* OVER the total in New York Giants |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
CBS Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Kansas City Chiefs (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8 ET - The points should prove to be quite valuable here. While the Seahawks are 2-0 (both SU and ATS) and the Chiefs are only 1-1 (both SU and ATS), it is noteworthy that the Chiefs have only failed to cover 1 game in each of the last 2 preseasons while Seattle did fail to cover a home game in each of the last 2 preseasons. In other words, this looks like the perfect spot (literally!) for the Seahawks to get their first blemish of this preseason. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has great long term numbers in preseason but the Seahawks, in the prior 2 preseasons, only had 1 win by more than 2 points in each preseason. In other words, there is a lot of value in having the points and fading Seattle. As for KC, the past 2 preseasons they went a combined 6-2 ATS and the only two SU losses they had each came by a single point. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will have his troops ready to go here in the "dress rehearsal" game for the regular season and I like the value with the points being offered here. 8* KANSAS CITY |
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08-24-17 | Dolphins v. Eagles -3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Thursday NFLX 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7 ET - Even though the Dolphins put up 23 points in week one, their offense did not impress as they only managed 12 first downs for the game. Also 99 of their 312 yards for the game came on a late game long TD pass. Miami struggled again on offense last week as they were blown out 31-7. Certainly the Dolphins would love to bounce back this week but they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Eagles won 20-16 last week and are now 5-1 (both SU and ATS) in NFLX games under head coach Doug Pederson. More of the same expected this week in the final "dress rehearsal" game for most of the veterans as next week's games (week 4) will not see many of the veterans playing. This is the week where the games are most like the regular season and the Eagles at home are the play in this one as the Dolphins are still reeling from the injury to QB Ryan Tannehill. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Monday NFLX 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants @ 8 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 40 to a 38.5 as of game day morning. Certainly I understand the move as these teams have a history of lower scoring preseason games in recent seasons. However, there is a reason the odds makers had opened up with a 40 here. Both of these teams emphasized the pass in their Week 1 games and more of the same is expected in Week 2. The Browns threw the ball 42 times while running just 22 times in their win over the Saints last week. Cleveland, even though its only preseason, also certainly got a boost by rallying for the win in that game. The Browns will ride that momentum this week but their defense did allow 15 first downs through the air against New Orleans. That is significant here because they should face another aerial attack from the Giants. New York threw the ball 42 times while rushing it just 23 times in their loss to the Steelers last week. The Browns scored 20 last week and the Giants allowed 20 last week and I look for each team to hit for at least 20 in this one as it gets over the total. These teams do not meet in the regular season either so there is not a concern of having to be overly vanilla to save certain plays for a regular season match-up. With that said, the value in this match-up is with the over. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland in Monday Night Football. |
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08-20-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Sunday NFLX 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8 ET - Everyone is looking to the Chargers this week after they got blasted 48-14 at home versus Seattle last week. Los Angeles has moved from a 2.5 point favorite to a 3.5 point choice as of Saturday evening. I will gladly fade the line move here and grab the Saints. The Chargers had no reason to be flat last week against the Seahawks. That said, even though LA hung around early in that game all of the issues with the 2nd and 3rd stringers getting completely manhandled is a concern for this week's action. Even though starters play more in Week 2, these preseason games are often decided by the back-ups and, in this case, I certainly like much more from what I saw from the Saints win Week 1. While the Chargers were outscored 38-3 in the final 3 quarters versus the Hawks last week, New Orleans did hold a 14-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before giving up the final 13 points at Cleveland. The fact that the Saints didn't "finish" last week versus the Browns is going to lead to a much stronger effort this week in the latter stages. Also New Orleans has the rest edge here as they have had 3 extra days (compared to the Chargers) coming into this one. The Saints have struggled in recent preseasons and I am well aware of that AS IS the football team. After losing against the beleaguered Browns (preseason or not!) the Saints will be ready to go here after a poor finish at Cleveland. The concern for the Chargers is they allowed well over 400 yards last week. The Saints QBs combined to complete 25 of 36 last week with no picks while the Chargers QBs combined for just 15 of 31 with two interceptions versus Seattle. A lot of line value here with the dog as the Chargers have only 2 wins by more than 3 points in their last 9 preseason games and Week 1 shows there is still a lot that this LA team has to work on! 8* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans OVER 40.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday NFLX 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers @ 3 ET - The Titans, after scoring just 3 points in their preseason opener against the Jets in New York, are putting a big emphasis on offensive production in this game. However, the Panthers scored 27 points in their win versus Houston last week and Carolina is fully capable of matching Tennessee score for score in this one. The Panthers, though allowing only 17 points last week, did allow over 400 yards of offensive production for the Texans. That said, and with the Titans hunger for points after last week's 7-3 loss to the Jets, look for plenty of points in this one. Carolina went 2-0 to the over in their preseason road games last year and began this preseason with another over at home last week. The Titans went a perfect 4-0 to the over in the 2015 preseason and then, last year, went 2-0 to the over in their 2016 preseason home games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Saturday afternoon. |