Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-16-22 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category. The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde. Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA. Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved. Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games. |
|||||||
05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -119 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston. I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year. Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros. |
|||||||
04-30-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation. |
|||||||
04-29-22 | Reds v. Rockies -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds. |
|||||||
04-14-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
|
|||||||
04-11-22 | Padres v. Giants -139 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -139 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
|
|||||||
04-10-22 | Marlins v. Giants -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA. |
|||||||
04-07-22 | Mets v. Nationals +120 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Astros -111 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
|
|||||||
10-20-21 | Astros +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
|
|||||||
09-28-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
|
|||||||
09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
|
|||||||
09-17-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
|
|||||||
09-15-21 | Indians -104 v. Twins | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
|
|||||||
09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
|
|||||||
09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -102 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
|
|||||||
09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies +157 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
|
|||||||
09-03-21 | Braves v. Rockies +129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 129 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game. |
|||||||
09-01-21 | Astros -125 v. Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts. |
|||||||
08-30-21 | Twins v. Tigers +112 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
|
|||||||
08-25-21 | Dodgers -136 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
|
|||||||
08-24-21 | Angels -131 v. Orioles | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month. Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League. Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances. Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span. The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins. |
|||||||
08-15-21 | Cardinals v. Royals +112 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here. Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007. The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties. Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road. The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties. Wrong team favored here.
|
|||||||
08-11-21 | Tigers -114 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses. I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.
|
|||||||
08-10-21 | Tigers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line. Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders. The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter. Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA. |
|||||||
08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -155 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts. Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season. Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that. The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.
|
|||||||
08-04-21 | Braves -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ. Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts. Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.
|
|||||||
08-01-21 | Brewers +137 v. Braves | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record. The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19. There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here. The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen. The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension. The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.
|