08-07-16 |
Cubs v. A's +158 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
This isn't the mismatch it looks like on paper. Kyle Hendricks has been great when pitching at Wrigley Field. Not so, though, when pitching on the road where he's 2-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Rookie Sean Manaea has been pitching better for Oakland. He has a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts. Oakland is 4-0 in his last four home starts.
|
08-07-16 |
Rangers -110 v. Astros |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games and pitching rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been used in the bullpen. I don't see Musgrove pitching long in this game and the Astros have a vulnerable bullpen. Yu Darvish hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in four starts since coming off the DL. Darvish is getting stronger and stronger. He's recorded 35 strikeouts in his last 22 2/3 innings.
|
08-07-16 |
Mets -126 v. Tigers |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
The price is low enough to get into play with a pitching mismatch of Jacob deGrom versus Anibal Sanchez. The Tigers have never faced deGrom, who has a 1.69 ERA since the All-Star break and has been the Mets' best pitcher. The key arms in the Mets' bullpen are rested. In nine career interleague starts, deGrom has a 2.25 ERA. Sanchez hasn't been good the last four years since losing speed off his fastball. He's 6-11 with a 6.26 ERA this season, only in the rotation because of multiple injuries to Detroit's pitchers. This will be Sanchez's 12th lifetime start versus the Mets. He has a 4.45 ERA against them.
|
08-06-16 |
Marlins v. Rockies -123 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
Look for the Rockies to bounce back after losing on Friday when they blew a ninth-inning lead. Colorado is tough at Coors Field where it has a winning home record. The Rockies also are 8-2 following a defeat. Padres starter Andrew Cashner is one of many pitchers who has trouble pitching at Coors Field where he has a 6.94 lifetime ERA in 23 1/3 innings. The Marlins have yet to face Colorado starter Chad Bettis, who is pitching better. He's 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts. The Rockies have won the past five times Bettis has pitched at Coors. The Marlins have lost nine of the last 11 times when on the road against an opponent with a winning home mark.
|
08-06-16 |
Indians -143 v. Yankees |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
I'll lay this price with the superior team that has a major edge, too, in starting pitching. Corey Kluber has resembled his Cy Young Award self of 2014 lately giving up one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He's allowed just four runs during this span in 29 innings. Yankees starter CC Sabathia has run out of gas failing to turn in a quality start during seven of his last eight starts. His ERA during his last eight games is 6.85. Sabathia can no longer be bailed out by the Yankees' backend of their bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller gone.
|
08-05-16 |
Red Sox +113 v. Dodgers |
Top |
9-0 |
Win
|
113 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
Not only does Boston have the better offense, but the Red Sox also have the superior starting pitcher going here. Yet they opened underdogs. The Red Sox have scored the most runs in baseball while also leading in batting average, RBI, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games. Boston starter Steven Wright has a 2.37 ERA. He's a knuckleballer, who should be fine pitching at night in Dodger Stadium. He's vulnerable when pitching in rainy conditions, which won't be the case here. Wright should be pumped being a Southern California native making his first start at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers rarely see a knuckleball pitcher being in the National League. The Red Sox have seen plenty of Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir, who has a 3.99 ERA in 29 career starts versus Boston. Kazmir has a 4.41 ERA on the season. Boston is 7-2 the past nine times facing a southpaw.
|
08-01-16 |
Yankees v. Mets -105 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game opened priced much lower than it should be because CC Sabathia is a big-name starter while Logan Verrett is not. Sabathia, though, is 35 and has logged more than 3,000 innings. The southpaw is at the end of his career and is dragging as the season hits August. Sabathia has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Mets have a winning record versus lefties. The Yankees are a demoralized bunch after management essentially pulled the plug on their season dealing their two best relief pitchers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, for prospects considerably weakening what used to be a strong bullpen. Verrett has a respectable 3.29 home ERA and 3.44 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Cardinals to three runs on five hits in seven innings during his last start this past Wednesday. The Yankees have never faced Verrett.
|
07-31-16 |
Mariners +125 v. Cubs |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
Just because the Cubs struck gold with another failed Oriole, Jake Arrieta, doesn't mean they can do it with Brian Matusz. As good as the Cubs are, and playing at home, I disagree that they should be favored in a matchup of Matusz against Felix Hernandez. The Orioles gave up on Matusz after he went 27-41 with a 4.85 ERA in 279 career games for them. The Braves traded for him this season and then released him. Hernandez hasn't been his usual dominant self this season, but he's still an elite pitcher at 30.This will be his third start since coming off the DL after being sidelined with a strained right calf that obviously affected his pitching. None of the current Cubs have faced Hernandez since the last time Hernandez pitched against Chicago was 2010. The Mariners are in the top 10 in scoring. Only two teams have hit more homers than Seattle.
|
07-31-16 |
Cardinals -115 v. Marlins |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Stud versus underachiever. That's what we have in this matchup. Carlos Martinez doesn't get a lot of publicity, but he's a star and he's at his best on the road. Andrew Cashner has been a dud the past couple of years after showing early promise. Going from the Padres to the Marlins isn't going to change that. Let's begin with Martinez, who is having another superb season at 10-6 with a 2.87 ERA. He's 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in eight road outings this season. St. Louis has won 77 percent of his past 22 away starts. Now let's examine Cashner. His ERA was 4.34 last year. This season he's 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA. Cashner is 15-30 during the last three years. He hasn't reached the seventh inning in any of his last seven starts. The Marlins have bullpen fatigue issues after starter Colin Rea only went 3 1/3 innings on Saturday. The Cardinals own the best road mark in the majors at 31-18. This is a bounce back game for them after an embarrassing 11-0 loss yesterday.
|
07-30-16 |
Royals v. Rangers -130 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
Question: Which team has the worst road record in the majors? Step to the front if you said the defending world champion Royals. They have dropped 34 of their 51 away games and have just about faded from playoff contention trailing the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. This is another bad road matchup for Kansas City with Ian Kennedy going against Martin Perez. Kennedy has been a major disappointment. He is 0-3 with a 6.90 ERA this month. Kansas City is 2-8 with Kennedy on the mound since June. Kennedy, a flyball pitcher, is especially vulnerable at this ballpark on a hot, muggy night where the ball can really carry. Heavy trade rumors haven't helped Kennedy's mental state. He is 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA lifetime against the Rangers in three starts. Perez has been going through a tough stretch, too, but he pitches much better in Arlington where he is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA. Only one of Perez's last five starts have been at home. The Rangers have won the last six times the lefty has pitched at home and are 21-8 in Perez's last 29 starts versus opponents with a losing record. The Royals have lost the last five times they've faced a lefty starter.
|
07-30-16 |
Yankees v. Rays -123 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
The buy sign is on here for southpaw Drew Smyly, a big strikeout pitcher who had an encouraging outing in his last start. The Yankees are in rebuilt mode after dealing closer Aroldis Chapman. They are 14-17 on the season versus southpaw starters and have had trouble with Smyly in the past. Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA career-wise versus the Yankees. Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi actually leads the Yankees in wins, but is their most inconsistent starter. The Yankees are 0-4 in his last four road starts.
|
07-29-16 |
Nationals v. Giants +146 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
I understand it's tough to get behind the Giants right now. They are 2-10 since the All-Star break. But the Giants have a strong history against Max Scherzer and the Nationals have trouble closing out games with Jonathan Papelbon's recent problems. San Francisco has won 19 of its last 28 home games. The Giants infield has been fortified with Joe Panik coming off the DL and the team trading for All-Star Eduardo Nunez. Scherzer is 1-4 with a 6.85 career ERA in five career starts against the Giants. The Nationals have won just once in their last six visits to AT&T Park. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has become more of an innings-eater type starter than an effective one. He's hurt by giving up too many homers. Samardzija, however, is must effective when pitching at spacious AT&T Park. His home ERA is 3.83 this season compared to 4.43 on the road. He also has a 3.73 night ERA compared to a 5.56 ERA when pitching during the day. The Giants have won five of the last seven times Samardzija has pitched at home.
|
07-29-16 |
White Sox -120 v. Twins |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
14 h 15 m |
Show
|
The White Sox are in must-win mode against this bottom-feeder. Twins players have to be distracted by the upcoming trade deadline especially after infielder Eduardo Nunez, their lone All-Star, was dealt to San Francisco following Thursday's win against Baltimore. Chicago has dominated Minnesota winning eight of nine games this season. The White Sox have Jose Quintana going. He's having his finest season with a 2.97 ERA. Twins starter Ricky Nolasco is having another Ricky Nolasco type season with a 4-8 record and 5.40 ERA. He couldn't get to the third inning against Boston in his last start. The Twins are 0-7 the last seven times they've played an AL Central Division foe.
|
07-28-16 |
Orioles +102 v. Twins |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins. So why did the Twins open a favorite here? Home field isn't that strong of a factor. The big reason is Baltimore is throwing Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA. Jimenez, though, loves to pitch at Target Field where he's 4-1 lifetime with a 1.82 ERA. Jimenez's wife just gave birth to his first daughter. He's relaxed now and should be strong having not pitched in nearly three weeks. I'm expecting a big game from Jimenez and the Orioles, who have a vastly superior offense to the Twins. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best game, but has always lacked consistency.
|
07-26-16 |
Rays +112 v. Dodgers |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 12 m |
Show
|
After making a key mechanical adjustment, the buy sign is on for Chris Archer. He pitched at Coors Field this past Wednesday and held the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings. Up to that point, Archer had been very disappointing. Yet he still leads the American League in strikeouts with 147 in 123 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Archer a first-look edge. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in Archer's last seven interleague starts. The Dodgers are going with Bud Norris, who is 5-9 with a 4.56 ERA. He's been a high strikeout guy, too, like Archer, but doesn't come close to matching Archer's previous All-Star form. Norris has always lacked consistency becoming a journeyman. His schedule has been altered, too, since he last pitched in relief last Friday giving up a game-winning home run in a 16-inning loss to the Cardinals. Norris has pitched against the Rays seven times, including six starts, and is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA. I prefer a back-in-form Archer to Norris and a Dodger bullpen that ranks among the top five in most innings pitched. Trade rumors and a rare chance to play in Dodger Stadium should ensure a full effort from the Rays.
|
07-25-16 |
Yankees v. Astros -148 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-148 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Yankees not only lose their closer Aroldis Chapman, but also are mentally distracted following that trade today in which the star reliever was dealt to the Cubs.
The Yankees have to deal with Dallas Keuchel on top of this. He's made four starts against the Yankees the past two years and giving up two runs in 29 innings. Current Yankees are batting less than .190 against him.
The Astros have won four in a row averaging 10 runs during their last two games. Current Astros are hitting .303 against Yankees starter Michael Pineda, who has a 5.70 road ERA this season.
|
07-25-16 |
Phillies +124 v. Marlins |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
124 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
|
Take away Jose Fernandez and the Marlins' pitching staff is very vulnerable. That's especially so when an injury hits like it has to Wei-Yin Chen. He's out with an elbow injury. The reason the Marlins' back-end of their rotation is so bad is because they have no adequate replacements. So who gets the call to pitch today? Jarred Cosart. He was brutal with a 7.98 ERA in three April starts spanning less than 15 innings. The Marlins sent him down to the minors in April. Now he's resurfaced not because he's pitching well, but because Miami is desperate. Cosart was 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for Triple-A New Orleans. The Phillies have going their most consistent pitcher this season, Jeremy Hellickson. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hellickson's last five starts. Hellickson is 2-0 in three starts versus the Marlins this season giving up just six runs in those three outings. Hellickson has pitched so well in Philadelphia that his name is being linked to a number of trade rumors. So he should have extra motivation for this start with the chance to possibility be traded to a contending team. Philadelphia plays Miami tough having split the 10 head-to-head games this season. The Phillies also have back their best power hitter, third baseman Maikel Franco.
|
07-24-16 |
Rangers v. Royals -117 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a key matchup for the defending world champions. The Royals have been dominant at home going 31-15. They have only lost four times in 22 games when favored at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers are a .500 road club. This marks their ninth straight away game and end of their current road trip. So focus could be a problem. The starting pitching matchup of A.J. Griffin versus Edinson Volquez favors the Royals. Kansas City also has much the superior bullpen. Griffin has yet to prove he has fully recovered from shoulder stiffness that sidelined him for 43 games earlier this season. He has made five starts since coming off the DL and is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA. He hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of those outings putting the Rangers' vulnerable middle relief into action. Griffin also has yielded at least one home run in each of his past five starts. Volquez is in solid form allowing nine runs during his last four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings. He has pitched much better at home with a 6-3 record and 4.09 ERA compared to 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA on the road. Volquez's home ERA would be a full run lower, but is skewed by one horrible performance in which he allowed 11 earned runs in one inning against the Astros last month.
|
07-23-16 |
Braves +177 v. Rockies |
|
4-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is way too big of a price for the Rockies to lay pitching lefty Tyler Anderson and having a shaky and fatigued bullpen. The Rockies believe Anderson has promise. The Braves believe the same thing about Matt Wisler, who gets the start here. Wisler more than held his own when he pitched at Coors Field last year giving up two runs in six innings. It really comes down to value. The Rockies just aren't a strong enough team to lay this price considering the pitching matchup. Colorado has lost 13 of the past 19 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage.
|
07-23-16 |
Mariners +136 v. Blue Jays |
|
14-5 |
Win
|
136 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
The price is right to back the underdog Mariners. So is the pitching matchup. Veteran Hisashi Iwakuma has made some necessary adjustments to turn his season around. He's 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA during his last four starts. He holds a 2.40 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in five appearances. R.A. Dickey pitches worse in day games. This isn't a fluke since he's a knuckleballer. He also pitches worse at home where he's 2-6 with a 4.43 ERA. Dickey's daytime ERA is 4.479. He has a 4.22 career ERA versus the Mariners in 13 appearances, including five starts. Despite playing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, the Mariners have hit the second-most homers in the majors. Dickey has surrendered the third-most homers in the majors with 23. Seattle has been dominant against AL East teams going 14-6 with five straight victories versus them. The Mariners catch the Blue Jays short-handed, too. Star slugger Jose Bautista is on the DL and catcher Russell Martin is dealing with a knee injury and isn't expected to be available today. Backup catcher Josh Thole usually catches Dickey anyways, but Martin being out limits the Blue Jays' options.
|
07-22-16 |
Tigers -145 v. White Sox |
Top |
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
Detroit is 11-1 the past 12 times Michael Fulmer has taken the mound. This record isn't built on luck. Fulmer has been brilliant going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA on the season, including posting a 7-1 mark in his last 10 outings with a 0.83 ERA. Fulmer is strong on the road, too, where he's 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA. He has the element of surprise on his side as the White Sox have never faced him. The White Sox have trouble with power pitchers, which Fulmer is. Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games, scoring one run or fewer in five of those losses. The White Sox haven't been playing well during the last six weeks going 23-39 during their past 62 games. Not only do the White Sox have to deal with Fulmer, but they are forced to give Jacob Turner another start with Carlos Rondon on the DL. Turner has become a hopeless cause. He's been pitching in the minors where he was 4-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 18 Triple A starts. He got called up to pitch against the Angels last Sunday and was hammered giving up eight runs on seven hits in four innings.
|
07-21-16 |
Marlins v. Phillies -107 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
17 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Marlins have been a nice success story so far this season. But their biggest weakness - the backend of their rotation - is likely to get exposed in this matchup. Tom Koehler is slated to take the mound for Miami. He entered this season having compiled a 4.58 road ERA from 2013-2015 compared to 3.51 at Marlins Park. This home/road split hasn't changed this season. Koehler is 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA when pitching at home this season and 4-5 with a 5.02 ERA on the road. So it's safe to deduct that Koehler - a No. 5 type starter to begin with - is much worse when pitching on the road. The Marlins were riding a four-game winning streak when Koehler last pitched, which was this past Saturday at St. Louis. He couldn't reach the fifth inning surrendering four runs on seven hits and three walks in a 5-0 loss. Only once during his past five starts has Koehler gone as much as five innings. During this four-game stretch, Koehler has giving up 29 hits in 16 hits carrying a fat 7.88 ERA. Miami isn't nearly a strong enough team to overcome such a bad road starter. The Marlins have been outscored by 14 runs in losing Koehler's past three away outings. Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is in much better form than Koehler. If you discount a bad performance at Coors Field, Eickhoff's ERA would be 2.34 in his last nine starts. Eickhoff also carries a big home/road contrast with a 2.45 ERA at Citizens Band Park compared to 5.51 on the road this year.
|
07-20-16 |
Rays v. Rockies +100 |
Top |
11-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts. Archer has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. His biggest trouble has come on the road where he's 3-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Now he's pitching in the best hitter's park in the majors against a foe that ranks third in runs and batting average. The Rays are a bad grass team losing 22 of the past 30 times they've played on a natural surface. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in runs and 27th in batting average. The Rays have scored less than five runs in 11 of their last 15 games. They have a losing record versus lefties and are going against southpaw Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has turned his season around so his season ERA should be discounted. De La Rosa has turned in six straight quality starts. He has a history of pitching well at Coors Field, where he's allowed just one run in his last 15 innings there. He is 3-0 this season with 1.93 ERA in day games.
|
07-19-16 |
Giants v. Red Sox -156 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
I don't see the Giants getting it done with Jake Peavy pitching in band box Fenway Park. San Francisco hasn't played at Fenway since 2007. Peavy knows Fenway, though, from his days in the American League. He has a 4.47 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway.
Peavy needs a spacious park to pitch well in. He's been fortunate to have played for the Padres and now the Giants. He's not the same pitcher, though, on the road particularly at hitter's parks such as Fenway. Peavy is 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Giants have lost 14 of Peavy's past 20 road outings. San Francisco is 5-22 in its last 27 away contests versus a foe with a winning record. Peavy has to face the major's top run producing team as Boston averages a league-best 5.5 runs per game. The Giants' offense is going to have trouble matching that down three starters - Hunter Pence, Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. Boston has won its last four home games and is 7-2 this month at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Rick Porcello's last 11 starts. Porcello hasn't lost in more than two months. He is 8-0 this season when pitching at Fenway.
|
07-18-16 |
Indians v. Royals +131 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
131 |
18 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a huge series for the Royals if they want to make a run in the AL Central. Kansas City has yet to lose to the Indians at home in three meetings this season. Indians starter Corey Kluber carries a big reputation, but it's a mistake to make the Royals a home 'dog here. KC has won nearly 70 percent of its games at Kauffman Stadium this season. The Royals have defeated Kluber the past five times they've faced him at home. This includes a 9-4 win on June 15. Kluber gave up eight runs (five earned) in five innings in that loss. Kluber tailed off last year from his outstanding 2014 season and he's been worse this season with a 3.61 ERA. Kluber also hasn't pitched in nine days for the Indians. His career ERA is 4.16 when throwing on six or more days of rest. Kluber also will have a new catcher for the first time this season as Yan Gomes injured his shoulder on Sunday. The Indians activated catcher Roberto Perez, who has caught just nine innings during a minor league rehab assignment after undergoing thumb surgery in May. Kluber entered this year with a 3.88 ERA when Perez has been his catcher. Royals starter Edinson Volquez has been better at home where he's 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA. That ERA would be much lower if it weren't for one bad outing against the Astros last month when he was lit up for 11 earned runs in one inning. Volquez has a 1.54 ERA the two times this season when he's pitched with six or more days of rest. Volquez is backed by one of the strongest bullpens in baseball.
|
07-16-16 |
Marlins v. Cardinals -155 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 51 m |
Show
|
There's nothing wrong with St. Louis' offense - fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in homers - and now the Cardinals have a strong pitching matchup edge with a rejuvenated Adam Wainwright drawing Tom Koehler. The buy sign is on with Wainwright as he's returned to ace status holding the Brewers and Pirates to a combined one run in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Wainwright tied his season high in strikeouts against the Pirates with nine. Wainwright has a good post-All-Star history (50-28 with a 3.05 ERA) and is 4-2 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in eight starts. Koehler historically is worse on the road and that's held up this season with a 4.72 away ERA compared to 4.22 ERA at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career WHIP at 1.56 and a 7.56 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis in three starts. Koehler is vulnerable to the Cardinals' power bats, too. He didn't allow a homer in his last start, but surrendered four during his previous three outings. The Marlins are 0-7 the past seven times Koehler has started versus an above .500 opponent. All of this helps make this my Game of the Week.
|
07-16-16 |
Royals -119 v. Tigers |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
|
Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Duffy has built up his stamina, too, going into the seventh inning during his last three starts. Kansas City has the stronger bullpen and could get back closer Wade Davis from the DL today. Mike Pelfrey has a 5.35 career ERA in seven starts versus the Royals. Pelfrey actually is pitching better of late. But at 32 he is who he is - a fringe starter who is lucky to have a rotation start. Pelfrey has a 4.58 ERA on the season and a fastball that couldn't break glass. Pelfrey doesn't go deep into games either. He's yet to pitch past the seven inning this season. Note, too, that the Tigers will be without Justin Upton. He's on the bereavement list.
|
07-10-16 |
Nationals +120 v. Mets |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
120 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
This would be a much better matchup for the Mets if Steven Matz were healthy, Yoenis Cespedes was able to play and there wasn't such gloom around the team with the recent news about Matt Harvey being out for the season and Noah Syndergaard possibly dealing with a serious injury. Matz is dealing with elbow discomfort. It's obviously affected his effectiveness. New York is 0-7 during Matz's last seven starts. His ERA during this span is 4.58. Matz will have to deal with hot-hitting Daniel Murphy, who is batting .438 with nine extra base hits and 19 RBI's in 12 games against the Mets this season. Gio Gonzalez also has been going through tough times, but he had a quality outing in his last start and has a strong history of pitching well at Citi Field with a 7-1 record and 1.53 ERA in 12 career starts there. The Nationals are 9-2 during Gonzalez's last 11 road starts versus the Mets. The Nationals are back on track winning 10 of their last 14 and have a healthy bullpen now.
|
07-08-16 |
Rays +105 v. Red Sox |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 10 m |
Show
|
I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay. Archer is displaying signs of finally coming around working 5 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday. The Rays have their closer, Alex Colome, back, too. Colome has been outstanding with a 1.71 ERA and 19 saves. The Rays have beaten Boston seven of the past nine times and are 5-1 in their last six games at Fenway Park. But fading O'Sullivan is my main handicapping factor. The journeyman, with a career-mark of 13-23 and 5.99 ERA, shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But the Red Sox are desperate to shore up their back end so O'Sullivan is getting another chance.
|
07-07-16 |
Padres +128 v. Dodgers |
Top |
6-0 |
Win
|
128 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
|
I'm always attracted getting a plus price with the superior starting pitcher. That's the case here with Drew Pomeranz facing lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. Pomeranz is enjoying his breakthrough season with excellent command now of his highly effective curveball. He has a 2.65 ERA and has held foes to one earned run or fewer in half of his 16 starts. Ryu is making his first start since 2014. He's been on a long comeback trail after suffering a torn labrum, which cost him all of last season. He was 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA in eight minor league starts. Ryu is going to be on a pitch count and the Dodgers' middle relief carries a high fatigue rating. The Padres are 14-10 versus southpaws and playing well winning 10 of their last 16. They hit much better away from Petco Park, too. San Diego is averaging 6.7 runs during its last nine away games.
|
07-06-16 |
Pirates v. Cardinals -165 |
|
7-5 |
Loss |
-165 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
I don't see the Cardinals getting swept at home especially with Pittsburgh throwing Jeff Locke, who has a 7.16 road ERA in nine away starts. Locke also has a 4.04 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals in nine starts. Pittsburgh is 2-8 the past 10 times Locke has pitched on the road versus an above .500 foe. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been pitching well, but carries a high fatigue rating having logged 20 1/3 innings during the last five days. Cardinals starter Jamie Garcia has a 0.57 ERA in six career games against the Pirates. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 division games.
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07-06-16 |
Mariners v. Astros -151 |
|
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
I'm going to ride the hot Astros, winners of 28 of their last 39 games. Houston starter Mike Fiers is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts. The righty is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA during his past three home starts. The Mariners have lost 14 of their last 17 road games, including a seven-game road losing streak when facing a right-hander. Seattle starter Wade LeBlanc has been far better than expected during his first two starts for Seattle posting a 1.50 ERA. But LeBlanc is a journeyman with a career ERA above 4.50. He's been helped pitching both of those games at pitcher-friendly Safeco Park. Now he faces the Astros, who rank in the top 10 in homers, at a hitter's park.
|
07-04-16 |
Marlins v. Mets -150 |
Top |
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Mets have a rested bullpen, something the Marlins don't have, and draw Miami traveling to play in a day game after playing in the late Sunday game at night. Marlins starter Tom Koehler is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter who pitches worse on the road. He has a 5.40 career ERA in eight outings at Citi Field, too. The Marlins are 0-6 the past six times Koehler has pitched against an above .500 team. The Marlins could be without injured first baseman Justin Bour, who is tied for second on the team in homers with 15. Matt Harvey is primed for a big start after his last start was reduced to just 3 2/3 innings because of a rain delay. The Mets have been especially strong on Monday winning 22 of the past 26 times.
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07-04-16 |
Rockies +135 v. Giants |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco all ailing. San Francisco also is minus starting third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joe Panik. The Giants carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and over-the-hill Jake Peavy is the starting pitcher. The 35-year-old Peavy has a 4.94 day time ERA and 5.33 ERA on the season. He's coming off a poorly pitched game against the A's where he couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has a misleading 0-2 record. He's four-for-four in quality starts and has a 2.66 ERA.
|
07-04-16 |
Yankees v. White Sox +118 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
118 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
James Shields is enduring a terrible season. But he did pitch well in his last start holding the Twins to one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts and one walk at home this past Wednesday. CC Sabathia has cooled off with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts. He's given up 21 hits and six walks during this span pitching 17 1/3 innings. The White Sox have the better record and are home. The Yankees are traveling from San Diego and are not helped by this being a day game. New York is 2-10 the past 12 times they've been on the road playing a foe with a winning record.
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07-03-16 |
Yankees -118 v. Padres |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
I'm willing to lay a short road road price on promising Chad Green against Andrew Cashner, a proven underachiever who has been battling injuries much of the season. Green's 1.54 ERA leads the International League. I'm expecting a better performance from Green now that he's had a taste of the big leagues. The Yankees have the stronger offense and far better relief pitching. The Padres have been terrible in day games going 6-20. That includes eight losses in 10 games at Petco Park.
|
07-01-16 |
Orioles +110 v. Mariners |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
I believe this could be the top value play of the season so far getting the Orioles as an opening underdog against Seattle journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc. Baltimore just set a major league record for homers in a month with 56 in June. The Orioles rank fifth in runs scored and are first in home runs. They are 13-8 on the season versus lefty starters, including 5-1 during the past six instances. It's an understatement to say the Orioles are swinging hot bats. They have scored 85 runs in last 11 games, an average of 7.7 runs per game. Now they draw LeBlanc, who is making his second big league start in three years. The Mariners were desperate for a starter with Felix Hernandez on the DL and Nate Karns struggling. So Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto acquired LeBlanc from the Blue Jays. This is what Dipoto said before LeBlanc's first start for Seattle this past Friday: "He's 31 years old, he's been out there before. He knows the routine. He might not pitch well, but he won't go out there and panic." This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement Nor should it be given than LeBlanc is 21-33 lifetime with a 4.46 ERA. This is LeBlanc's fifth big league team. LeBlanc pitched in Japan last season where he had a 4.23 ERA. LeBlanc earned this start by throwing six shutout innings against the Cardinals last Friday. Credit to LeBlanc for that surprising performance. But he is who he is and that's a fringe big-leaguer, a desperation, fill-in starter with a proven ERA of near 4.50. The Orioles should eat him up. The Mariners have a below average bullpen with a shaky closer carrying a high fatigue rating. Baltimore is playing well, too, having won seven of its last eight. Seattle is 4-8 in its last 12. There are reasons why the oddsmaker opened Seattle a favorite, though, chief among them is the Mariners being home and the Orioles going with Kevin Gausman, who has been more about potential than production. But I see a buy sign hereon Gausman coming off a 5-0 victory against the Rays this past Saturday at home where he allowed just four hits - all singles - with seven strikeouts and no walks in 7 2/3 innings. Gausman has a 3.93 ERA and is due for some good luck. His last four road starts have come at tough hitter's parks against tough offenses - the Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. The last time Gausman pitched at a more friendly pitcher's park was five road starts ago when he allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and a walk against the Angels. Now he gets to pitch here at Safeco Field, one of the better pitcher's parks in the majors. Gausman is 25 and talented. The same can't be said for LeBlanc.
|
06-30-16 |
Giants -140 v. A's |
|
12-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road.
Early activity in the marketplace is overlooking that Overton won his big league debut despite giving up three homers to the Angels. The Giants have won 21 of their last 29 road games.
|
06-30-16 |
Indians -110 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
I'm going to continue to ride the Indians and a back-in-top-form Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 51 runs in winning its last 12 games. Carrasco has regained his elite status with three straight quality performances, posting a 1.61 ERA during this span. The Indians are 11-4 in Carrasco's past 15 road starts. Carrasco has a 1.95 road ERA this season. He won't have to deal with injured Jose Bautista. Toronto is playing its first home game following a six-game road trip. The Blue Jays just finished a wild series against the Rockies at Coors Field. Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey has struggled at home with a 5.36 ERA this season. Toronto is 0-8 during his last eight starts at home.
|
06-30-16 |
Rangers v. Yankees -130 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
I can see the Yankees owning a pitching edge in every inning. A.J. Griffin is making just his second start since coming off the DL. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game for precautionary reasons and the Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Closer Sam Dyson also carries a fatigue rating.
Yankees starter Michael Pineda has metrics that show better than his won/lost and ERA do. He's due for a strong game - and he's backed by the Yankees' trio of elite relief pitchers.
|
06-29-16 |
Dodgers v. Brewers +107 |
|
0-7 |
Win
|
107 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
The underdog Brewers should have beaten the Dodgers last night and are in a better spot to pull the upset today facing rookie Brock Stewart in his big league debut. The Dodgers have been going through lots of starting pitchers because of an abundance of injuries. Stewart will be their ninth different starter. He opened the season in Single A ball. Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a much safewr bet. He's not fancy, but he does the job. Milwaukee is 8-2 in his 10 starts. The Brewers have their three best relief pitchers fresh, while Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen has worked the past two days. The Dodgers could be missing banged-up center fielder Joc Pederson.
|
06-28-16 |
Dodgers v. Brewers +129 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
There are several key under-the-radar spots here that clearly point to the home underdog Brewers. Milwaukee is 21-18 at Miller Park. The Dodgers have a losing road record and just finished a four-game road trip against the Pirates that ended on Monday with a hard-played come-from-behind, one-run Dodgers victory. The Brewers were idle on Monday. The Brewers should be extremely fresh as they've been been idle three of the past eight days. On paper, it appears the Dodgers have the pitching edge with rookie southpaw Julio Urias facing Chase Anderson. Urias held the Brewers scoreless in five innings on June 17 allowing just two hits and striking out eight. That was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, though. The 19-year-old Urias is 0-2 with a 6.92 road ERA in three away starts. The Brewers are 14-10 versus lefties. Their two best power-hitters, Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, are right-handed. Milwaukee is on a seven-game winning streak against left-handed starters at home. The Dodgers are limiting Urias' innings. So he doesn't figure to go deep into the game even if he's pitching well. LA has very vulnerable middle relief and closer Kenley Jansen threw 23 pitches on Monday in getting a four-out save. The right-handed Anderson is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA. Those are bad numbers. But those figures turn into a more respectable 3-2 with a 3.74 ERA when pitching at Miller Park. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a righty. Anderson is pitching on extra rest and is backed by a very good and underrated bullpen where the last three innings can be controlled by Will Smith (2.13 ERA), Tyler Thornburg (2.84 ERA) and closer Jeremy Jeffress (2.67 ERA).
|
06-28-16 |
Indians -177 v. Braves |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 48 m |
Show
|
Nothing fancy here. I just want the red-hot Indians - winners of 10 in a row - with Corey Kluber on the mound against the Braves. Atlanta has the worst home record in the majors at 11-30. The Braves are pitching Matt Wisler, who is 1-5 with a 4.45 ERA at Turner Field. Kluber is coming on and is pitching on extra rest. He is 10-2 with a 2.30 ERA in Interleague play. The Braves have never faced him.
|
06-27-16 |
Dodgers v. Pirates -113 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
After seeing the lineups - and who the Dodgers are resting - I'm involved with Pittsburgh. Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson are all not in LA's starting lineup.
Francisco Liriano is having a down season, but is 5-0 the past five times facing the Dodgers. The Pirates have stocked their lineup with righties against Scott Kazmir.
The Pirates also have defeated the Dodgers the past eight times at home.
|
06-26-16 |
Astros v. Royals +116 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
116 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
I'm not sold on the Astros pulling off a road sweep of the Royals. Ian Kennedy is tough at home with a 2.30 ERA. He also is 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in three career starts versus Houston. The Royals are an impressive 25-13 the past two years as a home 'dog. They have Alex Gordon back from a broken wrist. Gordon played for the first time in 30 games on Saturday and hit a homer and double. The Astros are 11 games under .500 the past 61 times they've been road chalk. Doug Fister has been doing an excellent job for Houston, but he's a middle-of-the-rotation type. Eric Hosmer is 10-for-26 lifetime against Fister.
|
06-26-16 |
Blue Jays v. White Sox -130 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
Chris Sale. I want him going for me in this matchup and the price is acceptable enough. Sale is an elite pitcher and he's having one of his finest seasons. The White Sox are 12-3 this season with Sale on the mound. Chicago has won seven of the last eight times Sale has pitched at home. Sale has a 2.25 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in four starts. The flip side is fading a struggling Marcus Stroman, who has a 7.89 ERA this month. Stroman has yielded six or more runs in four of his last seven starts.
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