Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-01-23 | Mercury v. Fever UNDER 160.5 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Mercury will be without Brittany Griner for this one. Griner is their second most efficient offensive player and their leading scorer. She averages more than 18 points per game. The two times these two teams have played this season Griner has scored 29 and 22 points. Griner is just 10th in defensive efficiency on the Mercury team. NaLyssa Smith is out for this game for Indiana. She averages more than 15 points per game. The Fever are significant favorites here, but they haven't scored more than 83 points in regulation in any of their last seven games. The Mercury have scored 72 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. These two teams play at the slowest and second slowest pace in the entire WNBA. This game should be played in the halfcourt. Take the under. |
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07-20-23 | Sparks v. Lynx -2.5 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star on the Lynx ATS* The Minnesota Lynx are in a good situational spot here. Minnesota is a home favorite off a loss, and in the WNBA that angle has been fantastic through the years. In the last ten years, WNBA teams at home off a loss by eight points or more and favored by 8 points or less are cashing at 58% ATS. It is good for an ROI of 12.1%. LA hasn't played a game in 8 days. The Sparks are still badly banged up. Minnesota got to play a game after the break and lost in disappointing fashion. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Minnesota has beaten LA three times this year by 5, 5, and 6 points. The Lynx have the healthier team and should win and cover again. Take Minnesota. |
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06-15-23 | Fever v. Sky -3 | 92-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Sky* The Chicago Sky are coming off two big losses to Los Angeles and Las Vegas on the road. Now, they get to come home and try to turn things around. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. In the WNBA, teams laying 7 points or fewer coming off a loss of more than 8 points and then playing at home are hitting at 58.1% ATS since 2006. Chicago meets this. The Fever just played two days ago. The Sky last played on June 11. There is a solid rest advantage here for the home team. Take Chicago. |
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08-17-18 | Aces v. Wings UNDER 175.5 | 102-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The winner of this game gets into the playoffs. The loser goes home. These types of games generally have a lower posted total, and they deserve to since the tempo of the game is usually slower. The game means more than the rest of them, so the pace slows because no one wants to be careless with the basketball. The first two matchups between these two teams this year had posted totals of 171.5 and 168.5. Now, we get a total in the mid 170's with everything on the line. It doesn't make any sense to me. Late in the WNBA regular season- betting unders has been a profitable angle in the last ten years. With teams fighting for a playoff spot, that makes me feel stronger about the under. Las Vegas has slowed their tempo by about 3 possessions in the last four games compared to earlier this year. In their last three games, Dallas has played a little over a possession per game slower. Take the under. |
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08-12-18 | Sparks v. Mercury UNDER 161.5 | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Late in the WNBA regular season, the under has been the way to go. From game 31 of the regular season through the end of the regular season when it is a conference game: the under is a whopping 125-77 (62%). The Sparks play at the slowest pace in the WNBA. The Mercury typically play to the pace of their opponent. The first two games went under this total, and I expect another low scoring game here. Look for a lot of intensity on the defensive end. Take the under. |
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08-01-18 | Mercury v. Aces OVER 172.5 | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The angle here is back to back game overs. Phoenix is on the second end of a back to back and they are the road team. The over is 104-60 in the last 164 games when the road team is coming off a loss and are on a back to back spot. If we drill it down even more: both the home and road teams have had 53% or less of their games go over the total on the season- the result is 45 overs and 17 unders. In conference games only in that scenario the record is 26 overs and 7 unders. It's clear that road teams on back to back spots helps the over. Las Vegas plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA, and they play quite a bit faster at home. The Aces have seen their home games be much higher scoring than their road games on average. Take the over here. |
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07-05-18 | Fever +10 v. Wings | 63-90 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Fever* The Indiana Fever meet a couple nice systems here. -A bad team coming off a win in the WNBA: A team with a win percentage of 30% or less on the year who is an underdog of 2.5 points or more in this game and is coming off a straight up win. This system is 58-26-1 ATS (69% wins). -A road non-conference angle- A team who is an underdog of 3 points or more after being a dog last game and they are on the road. They are also receiving less than 50% of the bets. This system is 207-132-5 (61.1%) in the WNBA in the last 13 seasons. Indiana has definitely been more competitive of late. Dallas is coming off a blowout win and this is a letdown spot. I'll grab the points. Take Indiana. |
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08-19-17 | Atlanta Dream v. Dallas Wings -4.5 | 86-90 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star WNBA GAME of the WEEK* The Dallas Wings lost by 20 points to the Atlanta Dream in their last matchup. Dallas should be plenty motivated for this game. Atlanta enters this one having dropped eight straight games. They have lost each of those games by at least 5 points. The Dream have lost their lost two games by a combined 37 points despite playing bad teams. Atlanta is a combination of appearing to be giving up on the season as well as having some major injury issues. This one fits a great system. Here is the criteria -A home favorite of 8 or less that has lost at least two games in a row -Their win percentage on the year is 58% or lower -It is game 26 or later in the season In this system, the home favorite is 59-17 ATS (78% covers). Take Dallas. |
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08-10-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. Dallas Wings -2.5 | 101-100 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star WNBA ATS GAME of the MONTH* The Dallas Wings are out for revenge here. Dallas was thumped by a whopping 42 points in Phoenix earlier this year. That game was a game where Phoenix was playing with revenge from when Dallas upset them early in the season. Now, the tables have turned. Dallas is healthy with no major injuries at all. Phoenix is without star Brittney Griner. The Mercury aren't a bad team without Griner since they still have Taurasi and a couple other solid players, but they obviously aren't the same without possibly the best player in the league. Phoenix is playing their third straight road game. This is also their fifth road game in their last six contests. Tough schedule there. Dallas is playing its third straight game at home. The Wings have won their last two at home as underdogs. This Dallas team is playing much better right now and they should be extremely motivated. In the WNBA, teams who lost the last head to head matchup by 6 points or more, and are then favored at home by a spread of -1 to -6 are a whopping 62-19 ATS in the last 81 contests. That's 76.5% covers. Take Dallas. |
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08-06-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. Washington Mystics UNDER 158.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star WNBA Play of the WEEK* The Washington Mystics will be without several key contributors here. Elena Delle Donne averages 19 points per game and she's the star of the team. She'll miss this game with a thumb injury. Tayler Hill is out for the season for them too, and she averaged 13.3 points per game. Natasha Cloud is doubtful here and she contributes 4.8 points per game on average. Brittney Griner is out for the Mercury as well. Both teams are without their stars here, and that should make this lower scoring than a normal matchup between these two. Add in the fact that we have a Sunday afternoon game that generally trends under, and I like this one. The under is 62-40 in the last 102 WNBA games on Sunday that start by at least 4 pm EST. Take the under. |
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07-05-17 | Atlanta Dream v. Dallas Wings -5 | 84-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star WNBA Game of the WEEK* The Dallas Wings were blown out last game at home by the Seattle Storm. Dallas has some solid players and getting blown off the floor by a mediocre team in their last game shouldn't sit well. That combined with Atlanta winning a surprisingly easy game against New York in their last contest makes a good situational play here. There is a great long term WNBA system supporting this one. System #1- Play on a home favorite of 7 points or less with a season average game margin of +2 points per game or worse that also matches this data -They lost their last game by 9 points or more to an opponent that has won 40% or more of their games this year. Plays on this team are a whopping 91-23 ATS (80% Wins) in the last 10 years. If you had backed this system in the WNBA in the last 10 years you would have been up every single year. Also, $100 bettors per game are up $6,306 on these plays. Dallas fits this system. Take Dallas here. |
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06-16-17 | Chicago Sky +8.5 v. Phoenix Mercury | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star WNBA Dog of the Day* The Chicago Sky are coming off an overtime win on the road. There are multiple long term WNBA angles that strongly support playing bad teams coming off a win. Let's take a look at a couple that fit this game. -Between Game 1 and 45 in the WNBA season: A team coming off at least one win, but with a winning percentage of 30% or lower and an underdog of 2.5 points or more is 50-19 (72.2%) ATS in the last 69 contests. -In a non-conference game: The team is a dog and was an underdog and won in their last game. They are receiving less than half the bets in the current game. They are dogs of at least 3 points. In this situation, the team is 184-116 in the last 300 contests (61.3% covers). Only 42% of the bets are on Chicago here, but 80% of the money is on the Sky. The sharps are on Chicago, and I'll take them plus the points as well. Take Chicago. |