Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto UNDER 45 | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Hamilton Tiger Cats and Toronto Argonauts square off in the playoffs on Sunday in Toronto. These two teams know each other very well. This is the most important game between these two in quite some time. Which team will win and move on to the Grey Cup? The weather should play a factor here. Winds of 15 mph with snow changing to rain are forecast for this game. That is enough weather to really make a difference. It should make both teams more conservative. The two passing attacks have been inconsistent of late anyways, and now the weather will make it tougher. Both teams have a good pass rush and Oakman could dominate on the defensive front for Toronto. The last 3 games for Hamilton have finished with totals of: 35, 27, and 43 points. The last 3 games for Toronto have finished with totals of: 43, 43, and 20 points. Take the under here. |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFL Friday Night CASH* The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are one of the more talented teams in the CFL. Winnipeg has a bunch of offensive weapons, and their defensive line is a strength as well. While Ottawa has won their first couple, they play in the weaker side of the CFL, and their defense is definitely a big question mark for me. Road dogs have fared well in the CFL in the long run early in the season. I think Winnipeg is the better team, so I'll grab the points here. Take Winnipeg. |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 58.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The over is 6-1 in the CFL so far this year. That has the oddsmakers and bettors overreacting here. This total has moved too high. It is certainly early in the season, but these are the 1st and 2nd ranked defenses in the CFL in yards allowed per game so far this year. Both of these defenses should be improved from last year. Early in the year in the CFL, the under has generally done well. That has especially been the case when the total is set at a high level. Since 2005- in game number 1 through 6 of the season with a total of 53.5 or higher, the under is an impressive 72-46 (61%). Conference games in this same time frame with a total of 52.5 or higher are 56-26 (68.3%) to the under. This game meets both of these systems. Take the under. |
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10-20-18 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 50 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Montreal goes to Toronto in a CFL showdown set for Saturday afternoon. BMO Field is an outdoor field where the weather can make a big difference. What's the weather look like for this Saturday? Toronto is expected to get 22 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. That's the type of wind that will change a game. In every football league there is if you look at long term history, the under has done extremely well in these conditions. Neither of these offenses are very good to start with. Neither team has been able to run the ball this year. These teams rank last and second to last in rushing yards this season. They'll have to run it more with this weather, and I don't see them having much success. Take the under. |
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09-02-18 | Winnipeg +3.5 v. Saskatchewan | 23-31 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Winnipeg* Saskatchewan has played very well in the last two weeks, and this line reflects some heavy recency bias. Saskatchewan stunned the CFL by beating Calgary a couple games ago. They then won at BC, though they were outgained in that game. Winnipeg enters off two straight losses to quality teams. The Blue Bombers are an impressive 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a winning record. This one fits a very strong long-term angle in the CFL. Taking the road team on a losing streak of 1-3 games when they are the underdog and their opponent has an ATS cover rate of 50% or higher on the year. Those spots are 106-61 ATS since 2005. That's 63.5% covers. Winnipeg has arguably the best offense in the CFL. Saskatchewan is just 3-7 ATS coming off an ATS win. Winnipeg is 10-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Expect a tight game here, and grabbing more than a field goal in this spot is a good value. Take Winnipeg. |
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08-11-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 50.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ottawa RedBlacks blew a massive lead last week, and they have to be fired up to get going in this one. It helps that they are playing against easily the worst defense in the CFL. Montreal is banged up on defense, and they weren't good even before they got hit by injuries. Montreal is allowing more than 20 yards per game more than any other defense in the CFL. They have allowed 44 points or more in 3 of their last 6 games. Don't be surprised if Trevor Harris and Ottawa put up a big number on them here. Johnny Manziel gets his second start for Montreal here. He was awful in the first one. He has big play potential both ways. He'll likely make more big plays for his offense here, but I expect him to once again turn it over and give Ottawa lots of easy scoring chances as well. Take the over. |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Taking unders early in the CFL season has been a very profitable system in the long run. That has been even more true when the totals are set high. In the first 6 games of the CFL season, games with a total of 53.5 or higher have gone under the total at a 60.6% clip since 2005. Calgary's defense has been tremendous early in the season, and Ottawa has been better on that side of the ball than in previous years as well. The fact that these teams have played high scoring games in the last few years against each other has propped up this number a bit too much. Some of those games were aided by overtime as well. This is a high number and I see value on the under. Take the under. |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 52 | 17-40 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Saskatchewan's offense is a big question mark. Zach Collaros hasn't proven himself, and this offense was brutal in the preseason. Though they scored 27 points in week one against Toronto, that total is misleading. Toronto's defense kept Saskatchewan drives alive many times with stupid penalties. Saskatchewan also had a pick six in the game. Ottawa's defense should be above average this year. They have a solid secondary and I see them giving Collaros trouble. Saskatchewan might not have the offensive pieces many other teams have, but they are very talented on defense. This game fits an under system for June-August in CFL. Taking the under with a total of 50.5 or higher and a spread of home team anywhere from -11.5 to +3 gets you 154 unders and just 94 overs (62.1% under). Take the under here. |
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08-26-17 | BC +1 v. Ottawa | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFL Game of the WEEK* The BC Lions have proven very good at bouncing back from losses. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. The West Division is so much better than the East Division right now in the CFL. BC was a team many thought had enough talent to win it all this year at the start of the season. They aren't badly banged up injury wise, and I still view them as having a high upside. BC has lost two straight games, and if they lose this one they'll fall to .500. I think we get a big effort from them here. Ottawa is 5-11 in their last 16 home games against the spread. Ottawa has disappointed all year, and I don't think their offense is consistent enough to beat BC here. BC beat Ottawa both times last year, and BC already has three nice wins on the road this year. Take BC in this one. |
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06-30-17 | BC +3 v. Toronto | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFL GAME of the WEEK* The BC Lions had high expectations coming into the season. The Toronto Argonauts had very low expectations. BC was disappointing in week one and Toronto put up a surprisingly good effort. If this game were played a week ago, BC likely would have been at least a field goal favorite on the road here. Now, they are a field goal underdog? This is a major overreaction. There are a couple key angles that point to BC strongly here as well. -Backing a road underdog after a game they lost when they were favored is a great angle in the CFL. When that team is an underdog of 1 to 9.5 points in the next game, they are 79-43 (65%) ATS. -Road dogs in the CFL in June, July, and August of 2 to 13 points that have had at least 6 days off since their last game are 110-72 ATS (60.4%) A classic case of the public overreacting and a couple nice angles to back the play. Take BC plus the points. |
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06-25-17 | Hamilton v. Toronto UNDER 57 | 15-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFL Red HOT CASH* There are a couple strong angles backing the under in this one. Early games in the CFL have stayed under the total consistently through the years. The public pushes up the numbers, and it has happened again here. This number is a full three points higher than it opened, and those 3 points could prove very valuable. The under is 17-5 in Hamilton's last 22 games in the month of June. The under is 16-5 in Toronto's last 21 games played in the month of June. Here's a simple strong angle for you. In a team's first 6 games of the season in the CFL, the under is 51-31 (62%) when the total is 53 or higher. Tighten that up to a game where the home team is between -2 and +5 on the spread line, and the under is 18-4 in the last 22 contests. Take the under. |
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06-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal UNDER 52 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Montreal has an elite defense, and a really bad offense. Obviously, that is exactly what we want to see with an under. Montreal has been a noted slow starter in terms of scoring as well. The under is a whopping 20-3 in Montreal's last 23 games in the month of June. In the last 8 matchups between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total while in regulation. A game played in June or July where the home team is favored by 5 to 12 points in the CFL- The under is an amazing 37-13 in the last 50 games that meet this criteria. Take the under here. |