Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-18 | Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
5* AL Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mariners OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's MLB action that has the Orioles hosting the Mariners. These two teams exploded for 15 runs in Seattle's 8-7 win in extra-innings on Wednesday and I look for those offensive fire-works to carry over into this contest. Seattle will send out Mike Leake, who has a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts and the OVER is 11-5 for the Mariners when he takes the mound. Baltimore on the other hand has been forced to call up Jimmy Yacabonis to take the place of the injured Dylan Bunny. Yacabonis will be making his first ever big league start. He's made two relief appearances for the Orioles this season and has given up 4 runs with 5 walks and just 1 strikeout in a mere 2 1/3 innings of work. OVER is 22-10-1 in the Mariners last 33 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-3 in the Orioles last 13 during Game 3 of a series. Take the OVER! |
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06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
5* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Dodgers OVER Most are going to look at the starting pitching matchup for Tuesday game between the Cubs and Dodgers and want to back the UNDER at 7.5. I actually think the value is with the OVER, given the low number and how much fire-power these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. The Cubs have lost 5 straight and the offense is due for an explosion. As good as Ross Stripling has been for LA, I like Chicago's chances of scoring early in this one. They hit Stripling pretty hard back on 6/20 with 3 runs on 8 hits. Lester has been lights out for the Cubs, but he's not pitched great in his last 2 starts at Dodgers Stadium, giving up 7 runs on 10 hits and 7 walks in just 8 innings of work. He's also facing an LA offense that has scored an impressive 23 runs over their last 4 games. Take the OVER! |
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06-04-18 | Royals v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play on UNDER 9 I'll take my chances here with the Royals and Angels staying UNDER the mark of 9 set by the books. I think we are seeing a high total here because of the overall numbers of KC starter Danny Duffy, who is just 2-6 with a 5.71 ERA in 12 starts. However, we know Duffy is much better than what he's shown early on in 2018 and he's coming off two great starts, where he's allowed just 2 runs on 8 in 13 2/3 innings of work. Angels will counter with Nick Tropeano, who is sitting at 3-3 with a 3.80 ERA in 8 starts and has also pitched well in his last two outings, giving up just 3 runs on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings. I just don't see either team going off offensively in this one. Take the UNDER 9! |
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05-06-18 | Astros v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros/Diamondbacks UNDER I love the value here with Sunday's interleague showdown between the Astros/Diamondbacks going UNDER the mark set by the books. Both of these offenses have been struggling of late and I just don't see either team getting going here with this pitching matchup. Houston is going to send out veteran Justin Verlander, who is putting up Cy Young type numbers. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.671 WHIP in 7 starts. He's yet to give up an earned run on the road this year, which covers 19 innings over 3 starts. Arizona will send out Matt Kock, who has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Take the UNDER! |
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04-13-18 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays/Indians UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Friday's series opener that has the Indians hosting the Blue Jays. Cleveland has scored 14 runs in their last 2 games, but that came against the Tigers. This is still an offense that is averaging just 3.5 runs/game and hitting a mere .189 as a team. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this total. I know it's been a rough start for Toronto's starter Marcus Stroman, but it's really just been his command that's hurt him. The big thing for me is just how good Stroman has been against Cleveland. He's got a 1.91 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 5 career starts against them. All 5 of which have finished UNDER the total. Indians will send out Mike Clevinger, who often gets overlooked in Cleveland's elite starting rotation. Clevinger has been lights out in his 2 starts, posting a 0.71 ERA, as he's allowed a mere 1 run in 12 2/3 innings of work. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-18 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Astros OVER 9 I love the value here with the OVER in Monday's AL matchup that has the Astros hosting the Orioles. This will be Houston's home opener and that makes this an extra special night for the defending champs, as they will get their 2017 World Series rings. I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in this one. Houston's offense struggled in their first two games against the Rangers, scoring just 5 runs on 11 hits, but exploded in the final two games with 17 runs on 27 hits. It's not out of the question that the Astros could eclipse this total on their own, as they will be facing the Orioles Chris Tillman, who was a miserable 1-7 with a 8.12 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in 19 starts last season. That included an awful 13.28 ERA and 2.697 WHIP on the road. Houston's starting rotation has been lights out to start and they will send out Charlie Morton for this one. Morton is coming off a strong 2017 season, but I think he struggles here against an Orioles lineup that is poised to breakout after scoring just 5 runs while getting swept at home by the Twins to open the season. Take the OVER! |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB Postseason TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER I absolutely love the UNDER in tonight's NLCS Game 3 between the Cubs and Dodgers. Two outstanding pitchers will face off, as Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, while Los Angeles gives the rock to Yu Darvish. Hendricks is your modern day Greg Maddux, who relies on exceptional location and movement to attack hitters. He comes in with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and most importantly has owned the Dodgers. He's got a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Two of those coming in last year's NLCS, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. Darvis had his struggles early with LA, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.519 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 24-6-1 in Hendricks's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 playoff home games and 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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08-27-17 | Rays v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under 'TOTAL OF THE WEEK' on Rays/Cardinals OVER This looks like a solid pitching matchup with Lance Lynn against Chris Archer, but my money here is on these two offenses combining for at least 9 runs. Archer is not near the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. He's got a 4.26 ERA in 13 road starts. Lynn has been solid at home, but did just give up 4 runs at home to the Padres and the Rays come in swinging a hot bat. Tampa has scored 6 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 and have combined for 11 runs on 22 hits in the first two games of this series. OVER is a perfect 10-0 in the Cardinals 10 games this season against AL teams that are scoring 4.4 or less runs/game, 16-3 in their last 19 interleague games overall and 7-0 in Archer's last 7 road starts after allowing 1 or less runs in his previous outing. Take the OVER! |
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08-21-17 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Red Sox/Indians UNDER I really like the value here with the total and it staying UNDER the mark in Monday's big AL showdown between the Red Sox and Indians. While both of these teams have a comfortable 5-game lead in their respective divisions, there is just 2.5-games separating these two teams in the standings with Boston currently holding that edge. If both go on to win their divisions, the team with the better record will get home field advantage when they meet in the postseason. I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here at Progressive Field and I like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston sends outs Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with Mike Clevinger, who comes in with a strong 3.37 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 15 starts this season. UNDER is 15-4 in Rodriguez's last 19 starts in the 2nd half of the season against a team who strikes out 7 or more times/game and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as an underdog. UNDER is also 28-14 in the Indians last 42 against a left-handed starter and 30-17 in their last 47 against a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! |
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider 'TOP PLAY' on Mets/Mariners UNDER I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's series finale between the Mets and Mariners. Seattle will send out one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in James Paxton, who in his last two starts (against the Astros and Red Sox) has allowed a mere 1 run on 10 hits with 17 strikeouts to just 1 walk in 14 innings of work. He's now 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 17 starts overall with a 2.36 ERA in 10 home starts and 1.35 ERA in his last 3 outings. New York counters here with Seth Lugo, who has a strong 3.26 ERA in his last 3 starts and should be able to limit a Mariners offense that is hitting a mere .228 was a team over their last 7 games. Take the UNDER! |
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07-29-17 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
5* AL Central 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on White Sox/Indians UNDER Runs should be extremely hard to come by for both teams on Saturday. No explanation needed for why it will be difficult for the White Sox, as they go up against former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and have been awful offensively the last couple of weeks. The key here is how well Chicago starter Miguel Gonzalez has been throwing. Gonzalez returned to the rotation on 7/18 (prev start 6/14) and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits against a loaded Dodgers lineup. In his next start he held the Cubs to 1 run on 7 hits in 7 1/3 innings. Going into Friday one of only two losses for the Cubs since the break. I expect him to match Kluber and keep this a low scoring game. Take UNDER! |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* Pre All-Star Break TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Dbacks/Dodgers UNDER While not quite a playoff atmosphere, this is a big game given where these two are sitting in the standings in the NL West title race. Both teams are going to do whatever it takes to get a win and with the pitching matchup going today, runs are going to be hard to come by. Arizona sends out Zack Godley, who has a strong 2.67 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 10 starts and has been just as good on the road with a 2.84 ERA in 5 starts. LA counters with Alex Wood, who has been lights out in 2017. Wood is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 12 starts. UNDER is 7-1 in Woods last 8 starts against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 in this situation at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Godley's last 6 after a Quality Start and 6-2-1 in Arizona's last 9 against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |
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06-29-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* AL East Total of the Month on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER I got no problem backing the OVER with this big total in Thursday's AL East clash betwen the Orioles and Blue Jays. These two offenses are poised to breakout after each struggled to get anything going in the first two games of the series. I believe there's a chance Toronto could get this total on their own. Baltimore will send out Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 8.27 ERA and 1.796 WHIP in 10 starts. In his last 3 starts, the opposing team has scored 34 runs. Not a big surprise that the OVER is 8-2 in Jimenez's 10 starts. It's also a perfect 5-0 in 5 starts against division opponents. Toronto will counter with J.A. Happ, who has pitched better of late, but still owns a 4.58 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 4 home starts and is 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA when he starts a night game. It's also worth noting that the OVER is 23-13 in the Orioles 36 games this season after a loss and 7-1-1 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the OVER! |
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06-14-17 | Royals v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
5* Interleague Total of the Month on Royals/Giants UNDER I really like the value here the total in today's afternoon showdown between the Royals and Giants. This game features a couple of starters that have underperformed overall, but are on the right track. Kansas City's Jason Hamel has a 0.944 WHIP in his last 3 starts and in his last start, held the high-powered Astros lineup to just 1 run on 4 hits over 7 innings. That came after holding the Indians to 3 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Giants will counter with Johnny Cueto, who has a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and for as bad as it's been in 2017, he's allowed more than 3 earned runs in just 4 of 13 starts. UNDER is 62-35 in Cueto's career during day games and is 13-4 in the Giants last 17 home games against a right-handed starter and 15-5 in their last 20 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-14-17 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* AL Over/Under Total of the Month on Angels/Royals OVER I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's showdown between the Angels and Royals. Conditions are going to be ideal for some big innings for both sides, as the wind will be blowing straight out to left at 15 mph. Kansas City will give the ball to their ace Danny Duffy, who has a 2.08 ERA in his first 2 starts. The thing is, Duffy is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. He's going to have be near perfect to avoid giving up a home run or two in this one. On the other side of this, the Angels are calling on JC Ramirez to make his first major league start after only being used out of the pen (111 career relief appearances). I'm not expecting a lot from him, as he owns a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his big league career and a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 3 appearances this season. KC isn't a dynamic offense, but are capable of putting up a big number and I expect them to do just that. Take the OVER! |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
5* ALCS Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER I know these two teams have went under the total in each of the first four games of this series, but the Blue Jays finally got their offense on track in Game 3, as they avoided elimination. Now Toronto gets to face off against Indians starter Ryan Merritt, who is being forced into action. Merrit has made one big league start in his career and that game in late September against a defeated Royals team. Asking him to pitch well in this spot is a asking a lot and I'll take my chances he gets knocked around early. As for the Blue Jays, they will send out Marco Estrada, who has been lights out in each of his first two postseason starts. However, both of those outings came on the road. For whatever reason, Estrada is a different pitcher at home and has a tendency to struggle. He went just 3-7 in 15 home starts and has an ERA over 5.00 in his last 10 home starts. OVER is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after hitting .200 or worse over their last 5 games and 17-5 in their last 22 road games after 6 or more consecutive unders. OVER is also 5-1 in Estrada's last 6 home starts. Take the OVER! |
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09-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER I really like the value here on the UNDER in Wednesday's NL West matchup between the Diamondbacks and Padres. We have two very capable starters facing off in one of the biggest pitchers' parks in the big leagues. Arizona will send out Zach Greinke, who comes in off two strong outings against division rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles. Greinke has pitched well on the road this year, despite a 4.01 ERA, as he has a very good 1.176 WHIP in those 12 road starts. He's also owned the Padres in his career, posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in 15 career starts against them. San Diego will send out Luis Perdomo, who is coming off great start in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 1/3 innings at San Francisco. Perdomo has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks, both this season, and has a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. UNDER is 11-3-1 in Greinke's 15 career starts against the Padres. It's also 19-5 in Arizona's last 24 road games after they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 8-0 in San Diego's last 8 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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09-16-16 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* AL Central Game of the Month on Tigers/Indians UNDER I really like the value we are getting here on the total in Friday night's AL Central showdown between the Tigers and Indians. This is a crucial series for both teams. Cleveland is trying to lock down the division title, while Detroit is fighting to catch the Indians and keep pace in the Wild Card race. I expect a playoff type atmosphere and both teams send out their best starters. Cleveland gives the ball to Corey Kluber, who has gone 16-9 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 29 starts. Kluber has been dominant at home (3.13 ERA) and comes in with a sizzling 2.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Tigers in his two starts against them this season, allowing a mere 1 run on 7 hits with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer, who has been a rookie sensation for the Tigers. Fulmer is 10-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 23 starts. He's been just as good on the road as he has at home, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 15 road starts. He last faced the Indians in Cleveland on 7/6 and allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings. It's also worth noting Cleveland is coming off a game where the offense managed just 1 run on 4 hits. The UNDER is 15-4-3 in the Indians last 22 after scoring 2 run or less. UNDER is 22-4 in the Tigers last 26 after giving up 5 or more runs and 7-1 in Fulmer's last 8 starts. Take the UNDER! |
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09-13-16 | A's v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
5* MLB AL Game of the Week on A's/Royals UNDER I really like the value here on the under in the total for tonight's game between the Royals and A's. I know the A's put up 16 runs in the series opener yesterday, but they aren't the type of offense to put those kind of efforts in back-to-back games. In fact, Oakland has scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games and have scored 4 or more in consecutive games just once in the last month. Kansas City is in a bit of an offensive funk of their own, having scored 3 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. I also like the starting pitching matchup in this one. The Royals will send out Danny Duffy, who is coming off a strong start at Minnesota, allowing just 2 earned runs with 10 strikeouts and no walks in 6 innings. Duffy has also owned the A's, going 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 4 career starts. Oakland will counter with Jharel Cotton, who was sharp in his MLB debut last week at home against the Angels, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 1/3 innings of work. UNDER is 13-2 in Duffy's last 15 starts after he allowed 1 or fewer walks in his previous start and 34-16-1 in his last 51 starts following a team loss in his previous start. UNDER is also 10-2-1 in the A's last 13 road games against a team with a winning road record and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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08-24-16 | Phillies v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague Total of the Week on Phillies/White Sox OVER Chicago and Philadelphia should have no problem combining for more than 10 runs in Wednesday's matchup. While the Phillies offense comes into this game struggling, they are poised to put up a big number here against White Sox starter James Shields. After a brief stretch where he threw the ball well, Shields is back to getting torched by opposing offenses. In his last 4 starts, he's allowed 27 earned runs in a mere 14 innings of work. In his last 3 starts, he's served up a ridiculous 9 home runs and struck out just 4 batters. It wouldn't be a shock of the Phillies topped this total on their own. However, Chicago should also help push this over the mark. The White Sox just put up 9 runs in yesterday's game and have scored 19 over their last 3 combined. They will be up against Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff, who comes in with an ugly 5.60 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is just 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 road outings. OVER is 9-1 in Shields last 10 starts in the month of August and 16-5-2 in the White Sox's last 23 after allowing 2 runs or less. OVER is also 7-2-1 in the Phillies last 10 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 13-4 in their last 17 after giving up 9 or more runs and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! |
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08-21-16 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
5* American League Game of the Week on UNDER Sunday's matchup between the Twins and Royals has a low scoring game written all over it. Both starting pitchers are in prime form. Minnesota will send out Ervin Santana, who has a 2.96 ERA in 10 road starts and a 1.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kansas City counters with emerging star Danny Duffy, who is 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts and has a 1.54 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 17-5 in Duffy's last 22 starts in the second half of the season, 14-4 in the Royals last 18 after allowing 1 run or less and 22-8 in their last 30 home games after 3 straight games where they haven't committed an error. UNDER is also 12-2 in the Twins last 14 after a game where they had 10 fewer hits than their opponent and 12-2 in their last 14 road games when revenging 4 or more consecutive losses. Take the UNDER! |
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08-16-16 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* AL Central Total of the Month on Sox/Indians UNDER 7.5 All signs point to a low scoring affair tonight between the Indians and White Sox. We have two of the top starters in the AL facing off against each other in this one. Cleveland will send out former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber against the underrated Jose Quintana. Kluber comes into this game with a 2.85 ERA and 1.094 WHIP, which is impressive after his slow start to the season. Kluber closed out May with a 4.15 ERA in his first 11 starts. He's been lights out of late, giving up 3 runs or less in 6 straight starts. He was also dominant in his lone start this season against the White Sox, giving up just 1 earned run with 9 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work. Quintana has a strong 3.44 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 23 starts. He's been slightly better on the road, with a 3.09 ERA in 10 road outings. He also comes into this game in great form with a 2.14 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Indians in his career, posting a 2.87 ERA in 14 career starts against them. UNDER is 10-1 in Quintana's last 11 starts against a division opponent, 11-3 in his last 14 road starts and 10-2 in his last 12 when working on 5 or 6 days of rest. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Indians last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the UNDER! |
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08-05-16 | Mets v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague Total of the Month on Mets/Tigers UNDER I'll gladly back the UNDER in tonight's showdown between the Tigers and Mets. The series opener features two aces on the mound with Noah Syndergaard of New York and Justin Verlander of Detroit. I don't see either team getting much done at the plate in this one, as these two starters are going to bring their "A" game facing off against another dominant starter. Both teams are also fighting to get in the playoff picture. Syndergaard has a 2.50 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 20 starts and a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts. Verlander on the other hand has a 3.54 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 22 starts and a strong 1.57 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 14-4 in the Mets last 18 road games as an underdog, 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 12-3 in Syndergaard's last 15 starts in Game 1 of a series. UNDER is also 7-0-1 in the Tigers last 8 off a loss, 10-1 in their last 11 after giving up 5 or more runs and 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the UNDER! |
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08-02-16 | Rangers v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB AL Total of the Month on Rangers/Orioles UNDER I'm expecting a very low scoring game here between the Rangers and Orioles on Tuesday. While these are two explosive offenses, we have two starters here that are more than capable of keeping them in check. Texas will send out Yu Darvish, who has continued to get better with each start since rejoining the rotation. He's got a 3.31 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 outings. The same can be said for Orioles starter Dylan Bundy. After a poor first outing, he's been sharp in his last two outings, giving up just 3 earned runs on 7 hits with 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings of work. The UNDER is 16-3 in Darvish's last 19 starts against AL East opponents, 6-1 in Texas' last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-0 in the Orioles last 8 home games, 14-2 in their last 16 against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Take the UNDER! |
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07-31-16 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on Cardinals/Marlins UNDER I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER in today's afternoon showdown between the Marlins and Cardinals. The first 3 games of this series have been high-scoring, which has forced oddsmakers to set this total a little higher than it should be. We have two strong starters on the mound, who are both in great form. St Louis will send out Carlos Martinez, who has a 2.87 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 19 starts. Martinez also owns a 1.89 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 8 road starts and a strong 2.65 ERA over his last 3 outings. Miami will counter with newly acquired Andrew Cashner, who has a 2.55 ERA and sensational 0.792 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That includes an outing at St Louis, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. UNDER is 23-9 in the Marlins last 32 home games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs and 12-2 in Martinez's last 14 starts after giving up 2 or less earned runs in each of his last 2 outings. Take the UNDER! |
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07-04-16 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Week on Braves/Phillies OVER Look for a high-scoring game Monday between the Phillies and Braves. Atlanta is swinging a hot bat, as they have scored 24 runs over their last 4. Same thing with the Phillies, who are averaging 5.9 runs and hitting a scorching .330 as a team over their last 7 games. OVER is 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 5-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less and 8-2 in their last 10 off a win. OVER is also 4-1 in the Braves last 5 against a team that scored 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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06-25-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Week on Dodgers/Pirates UNDER We are catching big time value here on the UNDER in Saturday's matchup between the Dodgers and Pirates. The reason being that Pittsburgh will be starting Jeff Locke. A quick look at his numbers and you can see reason to be concerned. He's got a 5.44 ERA overall in 14 starts and a 10.56 ERA in his last 3 outings. However, Locke was dominant in his last start, which came at home. He allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings of work. That continues a trend of him pitching well at home, where he's 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 6 starts. He's in a great spot to succeed, as the Dodgers are only averaging 3.2 runs/game and hitting just .217 as a team against left-handed starters this season. In those 15 games against southpaw starters, the UNDER is a dominant 11-4. Los Angeles will counter with one of the more underrated starters in baseball in Kenta Maeda. Despite a so-so 6-4 record, Maeda has a very good 2.65 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 14 starts. He could easily have 10 wins right now. He's 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 6 road starts and has a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take the UNDER! |
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06-22-16 | Reds v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
5* MLB No Limit Game of the Week on Reds/Rangers UNDER The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total between the Reds and Rangers. The wind will be blowing straight in from right at close to 15 mph and we have two very capable starters on the mound. Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 14 starts. Hamels has been lights of late, posting a 1.25 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also has a 1.79 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati will counter with Daniel Straily, who has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 12 starts. Straily was hit hard in his previous outing at Atlanta, but has shown the ability to bounce back after a bad outing. He had allowed just 3 runs on 7 hits in his previous two starts. I look for him to come out focused here against a top level starter like Hamels and keep the Rangers offense in check enough to keep this under the total. UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Reds last 9 interleague games, 3-1-1 in the Rangers last 5 interleague home games and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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06-20-16 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 10 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on Mariners/Tigers OVER I've got no problem playing the OVER in today's matchup between the Tigers and Mariners. Winds will be blowing straight out to left at 15+ mph when this one gets underway and we have two mediocre starters taking the mound against two very capable offenses that feature a lot of power. Detroit will give the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who is 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in 13 starts. Pelfrey has been even worse at home, where he has a 6.61 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 6 starts. Seattle give the ball to Nate Karns, who has a 4.66 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 7 road starts and a 6.75 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The Tigers are averaging 6.0 runs/game over their last 7 and 5.2 runs/game at home this season. Mariners are scoring 5.3 runs/game on the road and 5.5 against right-handed starters. OVER is 14-4 in Detroit's last 18 home games with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs, 11-3-3 in their last 17 at home against a right-handed starter and 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less. OVER is also 6-1 in Seattle's last 7 during Game 1 of a series and 5-1-1 in Karn's last 7 starts. Take the OVER! |
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06-18-16 | Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockies/Marlins UNDER I'm taking the UNDER in today's matchup between the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado will send out their ace in Tyler Chatwood, who has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball when he takes the mound away from Coors Field. Chatwood is 5-0 with a ridiculous 0.65 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 6 road starts. Miami will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who is better than his overall numbers would suggest. Chen has a history of pitching well in day games. Over the 3 previous seasons his ERA is just 3.74 in day games and he was dominant in his lone day start this season, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings of work. You also have to keep in mind the Rockies aren't near the offensive team on the road, where they are hitting just .246 with a .297 OBP this season. UNDER is 6-0 in Chatwood's 6 starts this season in day games and a solid 20-7 in the Marlins last 27 home games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs. Take the UNDER! |
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06-14-16 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* AL Central Total of the Month on Tigers/White Sox UNDER Oddsmakers have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the White Sox and Tigers. We are seeing an inflated number here after these two teams combined for 19 runs on 30 hits in yesterday's 10-9 win for Chicago. Detroit is going to send out Jordan Zimmermann, who is poised for a big bounce back start after getting torched by the Blue Jays at home in his last outing. Zimmermann is 8-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts and has been at his best on the road, where he's 3-1 with a 1.37 ERA. Zimmermann also has a 1.83 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 3 career starts against the White Sox. Chicago will counter with Miguel Gonzalez, who has quietly pitched extremely well when given the chance. Gonzalez has a 3.69 ERA in 7 starts, including a 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his only two previous outings at home this season. UNDER is 31-13 in the White Sox's last 44 home games off a win, 20-8 in their last 28 home games after hitting .240 or worse over a 15-game span and 32-12 in their last 44 home games after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. Take the UNDER! |
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06-12-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* MLB Total No Brainer on Cardinals/Pirates OVER I'm expecting a high-scoring series finale today between the Cardinals and Pirates. We have two average starters on the mound with Mike Leake and Jon Niese, going up against two very capable offenses with the wind blowing straight out to right center at close to 15 mph. Last time Leake faced the Pirates he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Niese's last start against the Cardinals wasn't much better, as he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings of a 6-5 win. OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games and 7-0 in their last 7 home games with a total set at 8.5 to 10 runs. Take the OVER! |
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06-09-16 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
5* AL West Total of the Month on Astros/Rangers UNDER I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in Thursday's series finale between the Rangers and Astros. It's a getaway game for both teams. Houston will leave for Tampa Bay after this one is over and the Rangers go west to Seattle. Add in the early start time and I just don't see the focus being there for either side in this one. We also have a couple of capable starters facing off, who are going to benefit from the wind blowing straight in from center. Texas will send out Martin Perez, who has a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts and a 2.55 ERA in 7 starts at home. Houston will counter with Collin McHugh, who has thrown the ball much better of late and is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA in 3 starts against division opponents. UNDER is 33-17 in the Astros last 48 after playing in a game where they scored an allowed 3 runs or less and 9-1 in their last 10 against a starter that gives up 5.5 or less hits/game. UNDER is 11-4 in Perez's last 15 starts after a Quality Start in his last outing and 4-1 in Texas' last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the UNDER! |
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05-17-16 | Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 10-0 | Win | 110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
5* American League Total of the Year on Orioles/Mariners OVER I really like the OVER in today's matchup between the Mariners and Orioles. We have two struggling pitchers on the mound in Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez and Seattle's Wade Miley. Jimenez has a 4.87 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in 7 starts, while Miley has a 4.91 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 7 starts. It's also worth noting that Miley has really struggled on the road, where his ERA is 5.48 and WHIP jumps up to 1.522. We also have to more than capable offenses here. The Mariners are averaging 5.2 runs/game on the road and had scored 5 or more runs in 5 straight before getting shutout in their last game. The Orioles are scoring 6.7 runs/game over their last 7 and 5.2 runs/game on the season against left-handed starts. OVER is a perfect 9-0 the last 3 seasons when you have a road team that was just swept in a 3-game series by a division rival, who is winning 54% to 62% or more of their games on the season. OVER is also 15-5 in the Orioles last 20 home games against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better and 7-1-1 in their last 9 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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10-02-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NL Central Game of the Month on Cubs/Brewers UNDER I'm expecting a low scoring affair Friday night in Milwaukee, as the Cubs send out their ace Jake Arrieta for his final tune-up before throwing in next Wednesday's Wild Card game against Pittsburgh. Arrieta has been nearly unhittable of late. He has a 0.37 ERA and 0.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in 8 consecutive starts. That run includes a start against the Brewers, where he threw a 3-hit complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts. The key here is that I also think the Cubs offense will struggle to produce at the plate against Milwaukee's Ariel Pena, who has been effective in each of his 4 starts since joining the rotation on 9/9. While he's yet to pitch past the 5th inning, he's recorded 19 strikeouts in 20 innings and has not allowed more than 3 runs. The Cubs offense scored 10 runs in their last contest, but only 12 over their previous 6. Chicago has a bunch of free swingers that will help Pena here, especially with this being the first time he's faced the Cubs. Under is 10-2 in Arrieta's 12 starts over the last 2 seasons when the Cubs are listed as a favorite of -150 or more, 14-3 this season when the total is listed at 7 or less and 10-1 in his last 11 against a division opponent. These combine to form a dynamite 34-6 (85%) system. Take the UNDER! |
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09-29-15 | Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague Total of the Year on Marlins/Rays UNDER I look for a pitchers duel in Tampa Bay tonight with two red-hot starters taking the mound in a meaningless game between the Rays and Marlins. Tampa Bay will give the ball to Matt Moore, who after a couple of rough starts has put together back-to-back solid starts. Moore's allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits with 16 strikeouts in his last two outings, spanning 13 2/3 innings. He's got ace-like stuff and is motivated to finish the year strong. Miami will counter with Adam Conley, who is also coming off two really strong outings. Conley went on the road and allowed just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings at NY Mets on 9/16 and followed that up by allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings of a win at home over the Phillies. In the two starts, Conley has racked up and impressive 14 strikeouts. Keep in mind the Rays are averaging just 3.7 runs/game at home and the Marlins are scoring only 3.8 runs/game on the road. While those two averages put us exactly at 7.5 runs, I expect both to go under their averages with the talent we have with these two starters. UNDER is 15-5 in the Rays last 20 after playing 9 consecutive games against a division opponent and 12-1 in their last 13 off back-to-back road losses to a division opponent. UNDER is also 12-3-1 in the Marlins last 16 interleague games against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |
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09-02-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Month on Rays/Orioles UNDER The books have set the total too high for this contest. While the Rays exploded for 11 runs in route to victory yesterday, this is not a strong offensive team by any means. They only average 3.8 runs and are hitting .248 as a team on the season. I look for them to struggle here against the Orioles Kevin Gausman, who has pitched like an ace when he takes the mound at home. Gausman has a 1.85 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in 5 home starts. Don't expect much offense here out of Baltimore either. The Orioles have completely fallen apart of late. They have lost 6 straight and 12 of 13 overall. During this stretch, they have scored 3 or less runs in all 12 losses. Tampa Bay's Erasmo Ramirez has a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 21 starts and in his last start at Baltimore he allowed just 3 hits over 7 scoreless innings. UNDER is 7-1 in Ramirez's last 8 starts against an opponent who scored 2 runs or less in their last contest and 26-9-3 in the Rays last 38 division games. UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 12-3-1 in Gausman's last 16 starts with 4 days of rest and 6-1-1 in his last 8 against the AL East. Take the UNDER! |
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08-26-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* MLB Over/Under Game of the Month on Angels/Tigers UNDER I really like the value here with this high total in today's game between the Angels and Tigers, as we have two quality starters taking the mound. Detroit will send out Justin Verlander, who has quietly started to throw like the ace of the post. Verlander has a sensational 0.45 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.92 ERA in 7 starts during night games this season. He's allowed 1 or less earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Angels counter with an underrated starter of their own in Hector Santiago, who despite a 7-7 record has posted an impressive 2.99 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 24 starts. He too has thrived in night games, posting a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings in his only start against Detroit this season and has a 1.73 ERA over 6 career starts against the Tigers. UNDER is 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts against the AL Central, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. UNDER is also 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts following a quality start last time out. Combined that's a perfect 13-0 (100%) system in favor of the UNDER! |
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07-20-15 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NL East Total of the Month on Mets/Nats UNDER Don't expect to see much offense in this one. The Nationals are coming off two straight games against Kershaw and Greinke, where they totaled 2 runs and were shutout yesterday. The Mets on the other hand just played an 18-inning marathon game against the Cardinals and are one of the least productive offenses in baseball. The Nationals will send out Gio Gonzalez, who was lights out going into the break, posting a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Gonzalez has also been dominant at home, where he's posted a 2.44 ERA and 1.196 WHIP over 7 starts. New York will counter with their ace Matt Harvey, who was sharp in his last start before the break and figures to be at his best here with a healthy 8-days of rest. UNDER is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 against a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 in Harvey's last 5 starts overall. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Nationals last 8 home games against a right-handed starter, 5-1 in their last 6 following a loss and 4-0 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the UNDER! |
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07-04-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
5* Pirates/Indians MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER This is a great spot to back the UNDER in today's matchup between the Indians and Pirates. Cleveland's Cody Anderson has been sensational in his first two starts, allowing just 1 run on 8 hits in 15 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh will counter with Jeff Locke, who has a solid 3.04 ERA in 9 home starts and a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 outings. The UNDER is 16-6 in Cleveland's last 22 road games after going under the total in their previous game and 10-2 in their last 12 road games with a hot bullpen that comes in with a WHIP under 1.000 in their last 5 games. Take the UNDER! |
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06-27-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
5* AL Total of the Month on Royals/A's UNDER I think we are seeing an inflated total here based on the fact that both of these teams have seen the over profit quite a bit of late. The OVER is 7-2-2 in KC's last 11 and 7-3-2 in the A's last 12. Not very often you get this good of a pitching matchup with this high of a total at pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. Keep in mind that in the last 7 meetings at Oakland the UNDER is 5-1-1. Royals will send out Chris Young, who has a 3.14 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over 9 starts overall and a dominant 1.42 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in 4 road starts. Oakland's Scott Kazmir has a 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 14 starts, but improves to a 1.27 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 7 home starts. UNDER is 34-16-3 in the Royals last 53 games as a road dog of +110 to +150 and 12-3 in Young's last 15 starts when his team is listed as an underdog of +125 to +175. UNDER is also 10-2 in the A's last 12 after allowing 5+ runs and 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games as a favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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06-03-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* MLB AL Total of the Week on Orioles/Astros UNDER I'm expecting a very low scoring game tonight between the Astros and Orioles, making this an easy selection on the UNDER with this high total. Keep in mind that the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has a respectable 3.48 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 10 starts and is coming off one of his best outings of the season. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings against the Rays at home. While he's struggled on the road, the Astros are a team that relies almost exclusively on the long ball and Gonzalez has allowed just 3 home runs on the road all season. The Orioles offense has been in a major funk of late. They are hitting just .228 as a team and averaging just 3.0 runs/game over their last 7. Their struggles figure to continue against Houston's Lance McCullers, who has a 2.40 ERA over his first 3 starts. McCullers has struggled to go deep, but that's not a big concern here with how well the Astros bullpen has been throwing the rock. UNDER is 12-2 in Gonzalez's last 14 road starts with a money line of +125 to -125, 9-1 in his last 10 during Game 3 of a series and 8-2 in his last 10 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (29-5) system. Take the UNDER! |