Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-23 | Magic -2.5 v. Blazers | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5 I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces. That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus. They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner. They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles. The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home. Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th. The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard. They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces. It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle. Bet the Magic Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Warriors v. Kings -3 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3 I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs. They returned all five starters. Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it. They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury. He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively. Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders. Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Bet the Kings Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year. The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season. They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix. This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace. They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener. Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going. The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively. They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury. They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two. They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC. Bet the Thunder Friday. |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5 The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight. They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent. They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight. Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night. The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed. The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter. They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season. The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games. I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going. Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily. The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns. Bet the Lakers Thursday. |
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10-25-23 | Pistons +9 v. Heat | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9 A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season. He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA. I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result. They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench. The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through. They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics. But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy. I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere. They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season. They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic. This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly. Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite. The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Pistons Wednesday. |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6 The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year. But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver. The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number. There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals. They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat. I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season. "If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June. "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.". The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis. "It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations. We can't wait to play them." "I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well." The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster. I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially. Bet the Lakers Tuesday. |
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06-12-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Nuggets Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +9 The Miami Heat have had their backs against the wall all playoffs and have thrived in this situation. They won't go down without a fight in Game 5 tonight. The Denver Nuggets have never won an NBA Title, so the pressure is all on them now to try and close out this series. I think the Heat hang around in Game 5 and possibly pull off the upset similar to when they did in Game 2 in Denver. The Nuggets are not a very good defensive team, but the Heat just haven't shot the ball that well in this series with the exception of Game 2 when they shot 48.7% and won outright. They shot just 40.6% in Game 1, 37% in Game 3 and 44.9% in Game 4. I have to think Miami is in line for a better shooting Game 5. The Nuggets have shot 49.4% or better in every game in this series and have some regression in store. Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in. The Nuggets are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Monday. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +3.5 The Miami Heat have only lost two consecutive games once in the entire playoffs. That was when they nearly blew a 3-0 lead to the Celtics, only to really show their resiliency by taking Game 7 in Boston. They will come through once again with their backs against the wall in Game 4 tonight. Everything went wrong for the Heat in Game 3 as they shot just 37% as a team while the Nuggets shot 51.2% and got huge games from both Jokic and Murray. The shots will fall at a much more efficient rate in Game 4, similar to Game 2 when the Heat pulled the upset on the road in Denver. The Heat are 34-18 SU at home this season while the Nuggets at 24-25 SU on the road. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Miami is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on one days' rest. I trust Spoelstra to make the right adjustments as he has all playoffs. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Friday. |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Miami +2.5 The resilient Miami Heat struck again in Game 2. They came back from double-digits down in the first half and 8 points down entering the 4th quarter to upset the Denver Nuggets 111-108. They gained home-court advantage with that victory, and now I expect them to protect it at least for Game 3 tonight. The Heat made a great adjustment by making Nikola Jokic into a scorer. And when Jokic scores 40-plus points in the playoffs, the Nuggets are 0-3. So there's something to it. Making Jokic a scorer instead of a passer keeps everyone else uninvolved and out of sync. Jamaal Murray took just 15 shots and nobody else even had double-digit shot attempts while Jokic had 28 and scored 41. I trust Miami's role players more, who came up clutch in Game 2 with Vincent, Strus and Robinson all having big contributions. With Jimmy Butler's father struggling with his health, that gives this team even more of a reason to rally around him right now. The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. Bet the Heat in Game 3 Wednesday. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 69 h 2 m | Show |
20* Heat/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Miami +9.5 The Miami Heat shot 40.6% as a team and attempted only two free throws in Game 1. Yet they still only lost by 11 points and had a chance to cover the 9-point spread late. It's safe to say they have a ton of room for improvement. Jimmy Butler was passive in Game 1 and getting his guys wide open looks all game that they would normally make. Max Strus and Caleb Martin were particularly bad combining to shoot 1-of-17 for the game. Butler will be more aggressive in getting to the rim in Game 2, and the shots will start falling. The Heat have been a resilient team all season and I expect them to bounce back with a big effort in Game 2. Miami is 27-15 ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Heat are 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday. |
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06-01-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
20* Heat/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +9 Rust will be a factor for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 tonight. They have been off since May 22nd and have been getting patted on the back after sweeping the Lakers. I expect them to be flat and out of sync in Game 1 despite it being the NBA Finals. That's going to make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take for them to beat us here. The Miami Heat have beaten the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics to get here yet they continue to get disrespected. I love that Jimmy Butler didn't even acknowledge winning the Eastern Conference Finals and MVP trophies, telling his teammates there are bigger fish to fry. His leadership is a big reason the Heat have been able to get this far, and it's a key reason they will give the Nuggets more of a fight than most are anticipating, including in Game 1. I also like the fact that the Heat got two days off after that Game 7 win over Boston to rest and recover, which is a big deal. They get two games off in between games a lot this series as well, so they'll be able to recover. I think they will be the sharper team tonight as well after having just played on May 29th. Plays on road underdogs (Miami) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off a road win by 3 points or less are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 27-14 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Thursday. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Lakers Game 4 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3 The Los Angeles Lakers won't go away quietly. They are 11-2 in their last 13 home games dating back to the regular season. They are also 7-1 at home in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves. Considering the Lakers were 5.5-point home favorites in Game 3 and are now only 3-point home favorites in Game 4, we are getting a discount on them here and the value is there to pull the trigger. Game 3's home loss was their lone defeat at home in the postseason, and was the abberration. The Nuggets shot 50% as a team in Game 3 and 17-of-41 (41.5%) from 3-point range and committed only five turnovers.. I have a hard time believing they are going to shoot that well again, or take care of the ball that well. Look for them to relax a little after taking a commanding 3-0 lead knowing they got two more home games to finish off the Lakers if need be. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Lakers) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that's off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Denver is 9-18 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -3 The Boston Celtics have come up with clutch road wins in the playoffs when they have needed them over the past couple seasons. They staved off elimination with a win in Game 6 at Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Last series, they staved off elimination with a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force a Game 7. This is essentially a must-win for the Celtics after losing the first two games of this series to the Heat at home. I think we get their best effort here as a result, and it will be good enough to cover this 3-point spread. They are still the better team in this series and that will show tonight. Miami is 13-27 ATS following an ATS win this season. Boston is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive upset losses as a favorite. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Boston is 4-1 ATS In its last five trips to Miami. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Sunday. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 14 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 Note: I locked this in at -3.5 as soon as the line came out. I would still play it up to -5.5. The Los Angeles Lakers won't go down without a fight and showed that in the first two games of this series. They lost by 6 points in Game 1 despite the Nuggets shooting 54.9% as a team and 46.9% from 3. They lost by 5 in Game 2 despite shooting just 8-of-30 (26.7%) from 3 themselves while the Nuggets made six more 3-pointers than them and Jamal Murray going off in the 4th quarter. Now the Lakers are back home where they are 7-0 in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves. The Lakers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season. They have a huge home-court advantage. The Nuggets have been vulnerable on the road going 1-3 SU in their last four playoff road games. They have a losing record (21-25) on the season away from home. Denver is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games following two or more consecutive wins. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games following a loss, covering the spread by 17.2 points per game. Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 70%) this season . The Lakers are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver. The home team has won all six meetings between the Nuggets and Lakers this season all by 5 points or more. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
20* Heat/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -8.5 The Boston Celtics were flat in Game 1 after winning Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers last series. I cashed the Heat +8.5 anticipating that would be the case. But I expect the Celtics to fire back with a blowout victory in Game 2 at home. The Heat shot 54.1% as a team and 16-of-31 (51.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That's not going to happen again. The Heat will be the team relaxing a little here after gaining home-court advantage and won't be playing with the same sense of urgency that they did in Game 1. Boston is 19-9 ATS off an upset win as a home favorite this season. The Heat are 12-27 ATS following an ATS win this season. Teams down 0-1 in a series at home are now 23-1 SU & 22-2 ATS since 2019. This has been a very profitable system and it makes 100% sense. Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers +6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6.5 The Los Angeles Lakers trailed by 20-plus points against the Nuggets but still had a chance to tie Game 1 late a couple times. They wound up losing by 6. The adjustments they made in the 2nd half are something that can work to their advantage the rest of this series, including in Game 2. The Lakers switched Rui Hachimura onto Nikola Jokic and he did a great job staying in front of him. That allowed Anthony Davis to roam around and be a stopper inside. The weak link of the Nuggets is Aaron Gordon from 3-point range, so the Lakers can let Davis guard Gordon so he can roam and make him try to beat them. The fact that the Nuggets shot 54.9% from the field and 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only won by 6 is a good sign for the Lakers moving forward. They aren't likely to shoot that well again the rest of the series. The Lakers are 22-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Denver is 8-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss. Bet the Lakers Thursday. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
20* Heat/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +8.5 The Miami Heat have been counted out the entire playoffs, and they are being counted out again in this series. Expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder in Game 1 of this series with the Celtics, who they beat in each of their final two regular season, including once on the road as 7-point dogs. I expect the Celtics to take a breather after winning Game 7 against the 76ers last series. They will come out flat in Game 1. They were flat in practice and I don't expect them to turn it on for Game 1. The Heat also have a nice rest advantage last playing on May 12th while the Celtics last played on May 14th. Miami is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Miami is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 trips to Boston. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday. |
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05-16-23 | Lakers +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6 The Los Angeles Lakers have made a statement in Game 1 in each of their first two series this season. They went on the road and beat Memphis 128-112 as a 5-point underdog. They went on the road and beat Golden State 117-112 as a 4.5-point dog as well. I think it will be more of the same here in Game 1 at Denver. LeBron James knows the importance of winning Game 1 of a series. The Lakers will be 'all in' to get the job done, and at the very least I think it will be good enough to cover this 6-point spread. The Lakers have proven themselves more than the Nuggets have in these playoffs. They were underdogs in both of their series against Memphis and Golden State, the defending champs. They disposed of both in six games. The Nuggets got to play the Timberwolves and a depleted Suns team with no depth and needed six games to get past them. The Lakers have remained healthy all postseason which has been their key, and are healthy coming into this one. The Nuggets are also healthy outside Jamal Murray, who is a non-covid related illness coming into Game 1 and is questionable. Denver is 6-18 ATS following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday. |
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05-12-23 | Knicks +6.5 v. Heat | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5 Jalen Brunson refused to let his team lose in Game 5 as the Knicks avoided elimination with a 112-103 victory behind 38 points from Brunson, 26 from Barrett and 24 from Randle. Brunson and company won't go down without a fight in Game 6, either. The Miami Heat were counted out and it's impressive they have gotten to this point despite being an underdog in eight of their 10 playoff games thus far. But now they are getting too much respect as 6.5-point favorites in Game 6. They were only 4 and 4.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their first two home games in this series. The value is clearly with the road underdog here. The Knicks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games. Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Friday. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -7.5 The Boston Celtics bounced back from an upset loss in Game 1 where James Harden went off for the 76ers with a 121-87 home victory in Game 2. After Harden went off in Game 4, I don't trust him to put together two consecutive monster games as he rarely does. The 76ers need him to because Joel Embiid is clearly hobbled with that knee injury and not himself. Al Horford owned in him the 4th quarter and OT of Game 4, which isn't something that would happen if Embiid was healthy. That puts a lot of Harden and company, especially going on the road here in a hostile environment in Game 5 against a pissed of Celtics team. The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Boston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. We get a big effort from the Celtics in Game 5 tonight that should have them covering this 7.5-point spread. Bet the Celtics Tuesday. |
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05-08-23 | Knicks +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on New York +4.5 It's a good time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks in Game 4 tonight. They have failed to cover the spread in every game in this series and are coming off a 19-point loss in Game 3 in which they shot 34.1% as a team and 8-of-40 (20%) from 3-point range. They aren't going to shoot even close to that poorly again in Game 4. Jalen Brunson is the leader of this team and had a big Game 2 after an inspirational speech to his team after a Game 1 loss. He showed how good he could be in the playoffs last year with the Mavericks, and he is one of the most underrated players in the league. Look for Brunson to respond with a huge Game 4 to lead the way for the Knicks in a game I think they win outright to even this series, but we'll take the 4.5 points for some insurance. Brunson had 30, Randle 25 and Barrett 24 in the Game 2 response. Look for this trio to lead the way in Game 4. The Heat don't have three players that can match these three as it's Butler, Adebayo and a bunch of role players that have played well to get them to this point. I'm just not sure it's sustainable the rest of the way, including in Game 4 tonight. The Knicks are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 100 points or less this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 11.2 points per game in this spot. New York is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 road games. Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Monday. |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -2.5 | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2.5 Devin Booker and Kevin Durant scored 86 points combined to lead the Suns to a critical Game 3 victory. They are two of the best players in the NBA and are capable of doing it again. Plus, they had others step up around them and that will continue at home tonight. Cameron Payne pushes the tempo more than Chris Paul and got them a lot of easy looks with his six assists. Jack Landale was huge off the bench and actually played better than DeAndre Ayton, and it would be a bonus if the Suns could get anything from Ayton. TJ Warren hit two huge shots late to help them seal the victory. But either way, Booker and Durant are good enough to carry this team to victory again. Phoenix is 31-14 at home while Denver is just 20-24 on the road. The Suns were 4-point home favorites in Game 3 and now we are getting them at a discount in comparison as only 2.5-point home favorites in Game 4. We'll take the value and back them to get the job done in Game 4. Denver is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Suns in Game 4 Sunday. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5 This is a must-win for the 76ers in Game 4 if they want to get back in this series. With how good their home-court advantage is, I expect them to get the job done and to avoid losing three in a row to the Celtics after upsetting them in Game 1. The 76ers are 31-13 SU & 27-17 ATS at home this season. They only shot 39.7% as a team in Game 3 and I can't see them shooting that poorly again. They also shot just 39.2% on the road in Game 2 after shooting 50.6% in Game 1. Look for them to get back to closer to that 50% mark in this one. Philadelphia is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The 76ers are 17-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Philadelphia is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the 76ers in Game 4 Sunday. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Lakers after getting blown out in Game 2 at Golden State. We saw them relax in Round 1 upsetting the Grizzlies in Game 1 before losing by double-digits in Game 2. They came back and beat Memphis by double-digits at home in Game 3, and it will be more of the same here against the Warriors. Golden State is one of the worst road teams in the NBA let alone in the playoffs. The Warriors are 13-32 SU & 15-30 ATS on the road this season. The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and have won all four playoff home games by 6 points or more. The Lakers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 playoff games when the series is tied. The Warriors are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games. Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Warriors have made 42 3-pointers in two games in this series and won't be nearly as effective shooting the 3 on the road here. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | 86-105 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Heat ABC ANNIHILATOR on New York +4 The New York Knicks have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games in this series against the Miami Heat. It's now time to 'buy low' on the Knicks as 4-point dogs in Game 3. They were 4-point favorites in Game 1 and 9-point favorites in Game 2, so this is a massive adjustment. Jimmy Butler is expected to return today, but he's still going to be a little hobbled with that ankle injury. And I believe the Knicks are the better team even with a healthy Butler, so getting 4 points with them is a nice value. The Heat shot the 3 terribly all season and have just gotten hot from 3 in the playoffs to get to this point. I don't see it lasting, and this team still has a lot of flaws outside of Butler. He has way too much on his shoulders to carry this team much further. The Knicks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after outrebounding their last opponent by 15-plus boards. New York is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 road games and has been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season. The Heat are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS win. Bet the Knicks Saturday. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 84 h 21 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5 The Phoenix Suns are in must-win mode in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Denver Nuggets. I expect them to bounce back in a big way at home to get back into this series. The Suns are 30-14 at home this season while the Nuggets are 20-23 SU & 19-22-2 ATS on the road. I think the Nuggets relax a bit after retaining home-court advantage, including a 4th quarter comeback win in Game 2. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. The Suns are 3-0 SU in their last three home meetings with the Nuggets winning by 4, 7 and 29 points. Denver is 4-12 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Phoenix is 13-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Suns are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Bet the Suns in Game 3 Friday. |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +2.5 After getting embarrassed with an 87-121 loss at Boston in Game 2, we'll 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 as home underdogs. They will respond in a big way tonight, especially with Joel Embiid in his second game back from injury. He will be much more effective at home tonight, and James Harden should bounce back as well. After making 17 3-pointers in Game 1's upset victory, the 76ers went just 6-of-30 (20%) in Game 2. They aren't going to shoot that poorly again. Also don't expect the Celtics to make 20 3-pointers again like they did in Game 2. The 76ers have played the Celtics tough at home in their two meetings this season. They lost by 3 as 1-point dogs and won outright as 3.5-point dogs. The 76ers are 31-12 SU & 27-16 ATS at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The 76ers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games. Bet the 76ers in Game 3 Friday. |
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05-02-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5 I like fading teams in Game 1 of their next series after winning a Game 7 the series prior. A 7-game series takes a lot out of a team, and it especially took a lot out of the Warriors having to play the up-tempo Kings. The Warriors lack depth this season, which is a big reason they aren't as good as they have been in previous seasons. The Warriors have only had one day off to recover from that seven-game series and will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Meanwhile, the Lakers have had the last three days off and will be rested and ready to go for this series. That's a huge rest advantage heading into Game 1, and I fully expect the Lakers to pull off the upset tonight because of it. The Lakers have shown what they are capable of when healthy since the All-Star Break. They are 22-9 SU in their last 31 games overall. They won Game 1 on the road against Memphis 128-112 as 5-point dogs. The Lakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors this season winning outright by 8 as 5-point home dogs, by 13 as 6-point home favorites and outright by 6 as 5.5-point road dogs. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday. |
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05-01-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +4.5 Kevin Durant is 25-3 in his last 28 games in which he has played dating back to Thanksgiving. I liked what I heard from him in the press conference after a bad Game 1 loss to the Nuggets. I fully expect Durant and the Suns to bounce back, and getting them as 4.5-point underdogs in Game 2 is a tremendous value. While the Suns will fire back with a better effort, the Nuggets could relax a little after winning Game 1 so convincingly. I have a hard time seeing Jamal Murray playing as well as he did again, and for the Nuggets to make nine more 3-pointers than the Suns again. Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Phoenix is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Denver. We may never get the opportunity to back the Suns as this big of an underdog again, so we'll take advantage. Bet the Suns in Game 2 Monday. |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings ABC No-Brainer on Sacramento +1.5 Although this series is tied 3-3, it's clear to me that the Sacramento Kings have been the better team in this series. Their resiliency in Game 6 winning blowing out the Warriors 118-99 as 7-point road underdogs says all you need to know about the mental state of this team. The Kings made all the right adjustments in Game 6 and really showed what they were capable of defensively limiting the Warriors to fewer than 100 points. Nothing came easy for the Warriors, while a lot came easy for the Kings, including getting out in transition. They will push the pace again, and they will come up with another great defensive effort at home to win this series in Game 7. The Warriors have many shortcomings this season that have come to fruition in the playoffs, most notably they aren't a very good defensive team. Curry, Poole and Thompson are all bad defenders, and the Kings have been exploiting them all series. The Warriors aren't comfortable playing Poole for big minutes because of his liabilities on defense, but they lose a lot without him on the court offensively. They are just getting a lot of credit due to their reputation in the past, but this isn't the same old Warriors. These aren't the same old Kings either as they won the most stacked division in the NBA and it was no fluke. The Warriors are 12-32 SU & 14-30 ATS on the road this season. Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season. The Warriors are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games overall. Sacramento is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Kings in Game 7 Sunday. |
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04-29-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +3.5 It's rare that you're going to get the opportunity to back the Phoenix Suns as an underdog the rest of the way. We'll take advantage in Game 1 and back a Suns team that is currently the second-favorite to win the NBA title due to all the talent they have on hand. Kevin Durant is now 25-2 in the last 27 games he has played dating back to Thanksgiving. The Suns are really forming chemistry with Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul and their starting five is the best in the NBA. They do have some depth concerns, but they are rested after having the last three days off and are primed for a big effort in Game 1. The Timberwolves took the Nuggets to the wire in each of the final four games last series. The Nuggets have too many holes defensively as Jokic, Porter Jr. and Murray are not known for defense. That is going to really hurt them in this series, starting with Game 1. The Suns have more experience in these big game situations as the Nuggets continue to be a disappointment in the playoffs. Bet the Suns in Game 1 Saturday. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5 The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games as road underdogs. That includes 0-18 SU & 2-16 ATS as road underdogs this season. The Grizzlies are 1-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season as well. LeBron James took Game 5 off and saved up for Game 6. Now expect a big effort from James and company in Game 6 at home tonight to close out this series. The Grizzlies haven't had an answer on the road all season against good teams, including in this series. It will be a tremendous atmosphere in Los Angeles Friday night and a tremendous advantage for the Lakers laying this short number. JA Morant is battling wrist, ankle and knee injuries right now. Luke Kennard just suffered a shoulder injury in Game 5 and likely will miss Game 6, leaving the Grizzlies short on outside shooting. The Lakers are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case with the way they closed out the regular season just to make the playoffs, plus how they have played in the playoffs to this point. It continues with another big effort tonight. Bet the Lakers in Game 6 Friday. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* Kings/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Sacramento +7.5 Four of the five games in this series went down to the wire decided by 8 points or fewer. The lone exception was Game 3 in a must-win for the Warriors after losing the first two games in Sacramento. I think Game 6 goes to the wire as well, so there's clear value here catching 7.5 points with the Kings. Sacramento is 9-1 ATS in road games when playing with triple revenge over the last two seasons. The Kings are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a same-season loss this season. Sacramento is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 road games. The Kings are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 trips to Golden State. Bet the Kings in Game 6 Friday. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Cavaliers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -5.5 I'll gladly back the more motivated Cleveland Cavaliers with their backs against the wall tonight against a New York Knicks team that can relax a little after taking a 3-1 series lead by winning both games at home. This game will play out similarly to Game 2 when the Cavaliers bounced back from an upset home loss in Game 1 with a 107-90 blowout in a game that was never competitive. Cleveland has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are 32-11 at home this season. The Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +10 The close out game is always the hardest, especially for a team like the Denver Nuggets that has been a disappointment in the playoffs for years under Nikola Jokic. They failed to close out the Timberwolves in Game 4 and lost in OT, giving Minnesota new life. I think the Timberwolves are a dangerous team now playing on house money catching 10 points against the Nuggets in Game 5. They have been competitive in each of the last three games, which have all been decided by 9 points or less. Game 1 can pretty much be thrown out because it was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves coming off a pair of play-in games and on little rest. The Timberwolves are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets are 21-35 ATS in their last 56 home games after playing a road game. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday. |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4 The Los Angeles Lakers are simply the better team in this series. They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case. They are now 12-3 SU In their last 15 games overall and came up clutch just trying to make the playoffs, and that has carried over into the postseason. The Grizzlies are missing key players in Steven Adams and Brandon Clark, which really hurts them defensively. Dillon Brooks is a mad man whose head isn't in this series, and he's more concerned with his antics. And JA Morant suffered a wrist injury in Game 1 that he's playing through, plus another injury in the final seconds of Game 3 to his lower leg that could hamper him heading into Game 4. I think it says everything that Morant had 45 points in Game 3 and the Grizzlies were still never in that game or competitive. They trailed 38-9 to start the game and most of his points came in garbage time with the game pretty much decided. The Grizzlies don't have very good depth off the bench, while this is some of the best depth LeBron has ever had. The Lakers actually increased their lead in Game 3 when he went to the bench. Guys like Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder and Vanderbilt are playing very well to compliment LeBron and AD. Memphis is 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. We'll continue fading the Grizzlies as road underdogs here as they have been a terrible team away from home all season, and I don't expect that to change in Game 4. Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 57 h 5 m | Show |
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 After winning Game 1 128-112 on the road, the Lakers relaxed in Game 2, especially with the Grizzlies without JA Morant due to a wrist injury. They won't make the same mistake in Game 3, and I look for them to fire back with a blowout home victory in this one. Dillon Brooks called LeBron James old after the Game 2 win. You know LeBron won't take that lightly and will be fully locked in to make a statement, and his teammates will have his back. The Lakers' role players have played well in this series, and I expect them to play even better at home to support LeBron and AD. The Lakers are now 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall coming up clutch just to try and get into the playoffs. They are showing how good they can be when healthy, which they are right now. The Grizzlies are missing up to three key players if Morant doesn't return. They aren't good enough to hang with the Lakers in this series given their current state, and especially not a 100% motivated Lakers team, which will be the case in Game 3 tonight. Memphis is 2-14 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Memphis is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better this season. The Grizzlies are just 16-25 SU on the road this season and have not played well at all away from home. The Lakers have won six of their last seven at home. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday. |
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04-21-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +2.5 It's now or never for the Minnesota Timberwolves after falling down 0-2 in this series to the Denver Nuggets. I expect them to fire back in Game 3 here at home. The Timberwolves have played three of their last four playoff games on the road and were competitive in two of them, taking the Lakers to OT in the play-in game and the Nuggets to the wire in Game 2. But now the Timberwolves at back home where they were much more comfortable. In their lone playoff home game, the Timberwolves crushed the upstart Thunder 120-95 as 5.5-point favorites. I think they are getting disrespected here as home underdogs to the Nuggets and will make a statement. Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive wins. Minnesota is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Friday. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5 The Phoenix Suns are by far the superior team over the Los Angeles Clippers. They have four stars in Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul compared to one for the Clippers in Kawhi Leonard, who is having to shoulder too much of the load for them. They are relying on several guys past their primes including Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook. Leonard had 31 points in Game 2 and the Clippers still lost by 14. I think we are getting the Suns very cheap here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 3. Kevin Durant is 22-2 SU in his last 24 games dating back to Thanksgiving. The Suns are finally forming chemistry with him and will be a dangerous team moving forward. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season. Los Angeles is 4-15 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Los Angeles. The Clippers only went 23-18 at home this season and don't have that big of a home-court advantage. Bet the Suns in Game 3 Thursday. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -7.5 That was a rare loss for Kevin Durant in Game 1. Durant is 21-2 in his last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving. I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 after getting upset by the Clippers in Game 1 of this series. A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2. The home team comes back more motivated and wins in a blowout to tie the series. I believe that's what we see here as the Suns are clearly the better team in this series. The Suns only made six 3-pointers in Game 1. You can expect them to make double-digits from 3 in Game 2 which will be a big difference in the result. The Clippers remain without Paul George and I think that puts too much of a burden on Kawhi Leonard. The Suns were dominant with Durant prior to that Game 1 loss. Plays on any team (Phoenix) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Suns in Game 2 Tuesday. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5 | Top | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland -5 The Cleveland Cavaliers got dominated on the boards in Game 1 which was their demise. They lost the rebounding battle 51-38 and gave up 17 offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team on the season, so don't expect that to happen again. I expect the Cavaliers to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 2 tonight. A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2. The home team comes back the more motivated team and wins in a blowout to tie the series. I believe that's what we see here as the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in this series. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five season. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - off two or more consecutive home losses in April games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday. |
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04-17-23 | Nets +10.5 v. 76ers | 84-96 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Nets/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +10.5 The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 3-pointers and had a 19-8 advantage in turnovers in Game 1 over the Brooklyn Nets to win by 20. A lot went right for them in that game, and I don't expect it to be nearly as easy for them in Game 2. I expect the Nets to take this game to the wire tonight. The Nets are 144-97 ATS in their last 241 road games when revenging a loss. Brooklyn is 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Bet the Nets in Game 2 Monday. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -7.5 The Phoenix Suns showed what they were capable of down the stretch when fully healthy and trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs. They went 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS for a stretch with four wins by double-digits. Kevin Durant is now 21-1 SU in his last 22 games played. This would have been a great series if Paul George was healthy. Instead, there's too much on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders now, and while he is a great player he isn't good enough to beat the Suns on his own. He is going to be trusting too much in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon, two veterans on the downside of their careers. Westbrook has been a cancer everywhere he has gone. I think Durant is the better player than Leonard, plus Booker and Ayton are both better than anything the Clippers have. They won't be able to match up with Booker on the perimeter or Ayton inside as the Clippers are very weak in the paint with Zubac handling most the minutes. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days' rest. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. This rest is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Suns as they are now ready to make their playoff run as likely the best team in the West as currently constructed. Bet the Suns in Game 1 Sunday. |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK The Sacramento Kings will be making their first playoff appearance since 2006. It's safe to say it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere for Game 1 of this series with fans ready to let out years of frustration in support of this team. Mike Brown is the coach of the year leading the Kings to a 48-34 record this season and the 3rd seed in the West. They have stayed remarkably healthy all season and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. I think they have a huge advantage over the Warriors when the backups are in as the Warriors lack the depth of years' past when they made NBA Finals runs. Most just expect the Warriors to flip on the switch, but it's not that easy. Andrew Wiggins returns but is going to be rusty after missing the past 25 games. And the Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA all season, going 11-30 SU & 13-28 ATS on the highway. Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Kings are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks +9.5 v. Celtics | 99-112 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Hawks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +9.5 The Atlanta Hawks have come up clutch here down the stretch with these games mattering most. They have gone 4-1 SU in games in which they were actually trying and not resting starters, including their dominant 116-105 win at Miami as 5.5-point underdogs in the Play-In to punch their ticket into the playoffs. The Hawks are brimming with confidence now and ready to give the Celtics a run for their money in Game 1 of this series today. The Celtics are getting a lot of love after making the NBA Finals last year. But they kind of snuck up on everyone in the playoffs last year, and now they are the hunted instead of the hunters. Asking them to win by double-digits in Game 1 to beat us is asking too much. The Hawks are actually more battle-tested and ready after playing a meaningful game earlier this week. Boston hasn't played a meaningful game since April 4th and could be rusty to open this series as a result. Bet the Hawks Saturday. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after upsetting the Pelicans 123-118 on the road last game. The Minnesota Timberwolves are questioning themselves after blowing a double-digit lead and scoring just 16 points in the final 16 minutes in an OT loss to the Lakers. The Timberwolves are also dealing with the Rudy Gobert distractions and some significant injuries heading into this one. I think 5.5 points is too many for them to be laying against this up-and-coming Thunder team that has been consistently undervalued for two straight seasons and one that just has a knack for playing in close games. The Thunder are 11-1 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Minnesota. Bet the Thunder Friday. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
20* Bulls/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5 The Chicago Bulls come into this game with a ton of confidence after coming back from 19 points down to beat the Raptors last game. I think they are once again catching too many points against the Miami Heat tonight after the Heat are questioning themselves after getting upset 105-116 at home by the Hawks in a game they were never really in. Adding to the Bulls' confidence is the fact that they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Heat this season with three outright upset victories as underdogs. It should be more of the same here as I expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance. The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points. Chicago is 14-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. Miami is 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bet the Bulls Friday. |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans +4 v. Wolves | Top | 108-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4 The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money. That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again. Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here. I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces. Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night. That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons. The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota. Bet the Pelicans Sunday. |
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04-09-23 | Pistons +7.5 v. Bulls | 81-103 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5 The Detroit Pistons have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and optimal odds to get the 1st pick in the draft. They are no longer tanking to close out the season and trying to win these final couple games. They pulled the 122-115 upset at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs last game, and I think they have a great shot to pull the upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Chicago today. The Bulls have nothing to play for and are locked into the 10th seed. They will be in the play-in round against the Raptors. They are unlikely to play starters today as a result, and could care less about winning this game. They should not be this big of favorites when they are unmotivated and just trying to get healthy going into the playoffs. Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games following two consecutive home games this season. Bet the Pistons Sunday. |
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04-07-23 | Knicks v. Pelicans -8 | 105-113 | Push | 0 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -8 The New York Knicks are locked into the 5th seed in the East and will play the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. They could care less about winning these last two games. Their three best players will sit tonight in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett. They won't be competitive as a result. The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for still trying to get a Top 8 seed in the Western Conference. They are tied with the Lakers for 7th, one game back of both the Warriors and Clippers, and one game ahead of the Timberwolves. The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money. That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming up clutch again. Now they will make easy work of the short-handed, unmotivated Knicks tonight. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest. Bet the Pelicans Friday. |
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04-06-23 | Heat +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 129-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +3.5 The Miami Heat are still playing to try to avoid the play-in round or at the very least earn the 7th seed which will give them the advantage in the play-in round. They are 1.5 games behind the Nets for 6th and 1.5 games ahead of the Hawks for 7th. While this game means something to the Heat, it means absolutely nothing to the 76ers. They are locked into the 3rd seed in the East. Don't be surprised if they rest their starters over the final three games as a result. At the very least, they won't be motivated to win these games. Miami is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia winning its last two trips to Philly outright as underdogs. Bet the Heat Thursday. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 121-103 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season just to make the playoffs and then gave the Phoenix Suns a run for their money in the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again this season, and that experience from last season is really helping them. The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by 8 points or more and six of them by double-digits. Their lone loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas. The Sacramento Kings are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the Pacific Division. They are also just kind of going through the motions right now essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the West. They just lost outright at home to the Spurs are 16-point favorites. This young team is not used to the pressure of playoff basketball and will not handle it as well as the Pelicans will tonight. The Pelicans are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Kings with all three wins in blowouts by 32, 14 and 30 points. New Orleans is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% or higher this season. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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04-04-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 123-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3.5 The Chicago Bulls have saved their best basketball for last coming up clutch to not only make the playoffs, but to also try and improve their seeding. Now they have a chance to change spots with the Atlanta Hawks and move up again, and I think they take advantage with a blowout victory at home. The Bulls are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are coming off a pair of blowout wins by 30 at Charlotte and by 21 at home over Memphis. They have won two of their three meetings with the Hawks with their lone loss coming by a single point at the buzzer. The Hawks have been trading wins and losses and are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are without De'Andre Hunter (15.4 PPG) and Trae Young (26.2 PPG, 9.9 APG) tonight. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hawks are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games following a win. Bet the Bulls Tuesday. |
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04-04-23 | Cavs v. Magic +5.5 | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5 The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back all season, especially of late. They continue to fly under the radar as this is a young, talented team with a very bright future and they continue showing up on a nightly basis. The Magic are 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over the Knicks and Clippers. They were even competitive in all three losses losing by 3 at Phoenix, by 6 at the Lakers and by 5 at Memphis. The Magic can stay within 5.5 of the Cavaliers at home tonight and possibly pull off the upset. Cleveland is just 18-21 SU on the road this season. They are kind of going through the motions right now basically locked into the 4th seed in the East. They are 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall losing at Atlanta, losing by 16 at home to the Knicks and only beating the depleted Pacers by 10 as 12-point home favorites. Bet the Magic Tuesday. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. They are coming off their worst loss of the season to the Boston Celtics when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They have no had the last two days off to rest and recover and will come back pissed off after that defeat. Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Bucks will be looking for revenge from a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia on March 4th in their most recent meeting. It's a much worst spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. The Bucks are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss and haven't lost consecutive games since January 12-14. The Bucks only lead the Celtics by 1.5 games for 1st place in the East so they have no margin for error, also adding to their motivation. Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite this season. Bet the Bucks Sunday. |
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04-02-23 | Spurs v. Kings -15.5 | 142-134 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -15.5 The Sacramento Kings are still looking to improve their playoff positioning as they trail the Grizzlies by two games for 2nd place in the West. They are handling their business right now beating the Blazers by 40 and 24 points in their last two games. Now they get another Western Conference bottom feeder in the Spurs tonight, and the result should be the same. The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and tanking to try and get the No. 1 pick. That's evident by the fact that all six losses came by 11 points or more including a 35-point loss at New Orleans, a 36-point loss at Milwaukee and a 44-point loss at Boston during this stretch. They are resting almost all of their best players right now and are playing as a G League team. The Kings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs. San Antonio is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games. Bet the Kings Sunday. |
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04-02-23 | Blazers v. Wolves -16.5 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves are battling to make the playoffs right now. They are in 9th place in the West but just 2 games ahead of the Mavericks in 11th. They have a great chance of improving their standing, and they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly today. The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season. The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now. Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now. The Blazers are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Eight of their last nine losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.6 points per game. Their last three losses have come by 24, 40 and 34 points. That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Timberwolves. This is a big step down in class for the Timberwolves after playing 16 consecutive games against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in round if the season were to end today. They have won four of their last six games including upset road wins over the Knicks, Warriors and Kings. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Portland. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
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04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5 The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place. They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it. The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas. Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night. They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team. The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury. The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season. New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings. The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest. Bet the Pelicans Saturday. |
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03-31-23 | Spurs v. Warriors -15.5 | Top | 115-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5 The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now. They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points. They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs. They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result. The Spurs are clearly tanking right now. They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah. They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors. The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it. They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management. The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now. San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season. The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season. The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season. The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games. Bet the Warriors Friday. |
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03-31-23 | Kings -14.5 v. Blazers | Top | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -14.5 The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season. The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now. Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now. The Blazers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Seven of their last eight losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game. That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers. They beat the Blazers by 40 on Wednesday and by 17 in their two most recent meetings. They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number. I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing all these players. The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games with seven losses by double-digits. The Blazers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Kings Friday. |
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03-30-23 | Pelicans +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7 The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 1.5 games ahead of 11th place. They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it. They Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas. While the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency, the Denver Nuggets have plenty of margin for error. They have a 3.5-game lead over the Grizzlies for 1st place in the West with seven games left. They could decide to rest Nikola Jokic, who is very questionable with calf injury. Either way, I like the Pelicans to stay within this 7-point spread given all the motivation factors. Willie Green is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive team that allow 48% shooting or higher as the coach of New Orelans. Plays against home favorites (Denver) - following two or more consecutive home wins in March games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Denver. Bet the Pelicans Thursday. |
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03-29-23 | Kings -13.5 v. Blazers | 120-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -13.5 The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season. The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic. They are also expected to be without Reddish and Watford tonight, who are both listed as doubtful. The Blazers are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Six of their last seven losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 18.6 points per game. That's why I'm willing to face them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers. They beat the Blazers by 17 in their most recent meeting. They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number. I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing six of their best players. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games with six losses by double-digits. The Blazers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Kings Wednesday. |
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03-28-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +9.5 The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season behind Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum just to get into the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again behind these two with their season on the line trying to make the playoffs again this year. Indeed, the Pelicans have saved their best basketball for last, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 points per game. Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but that is mitigated by the fact that they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter of a 124-90 blowout win in Portland. The Pelicans will be plenty fresh tonight, and they'll have no problem getting up to face the defending champs, who they trail by just a 0.5 games in the standings. The Warriors have been overvalued all season, especially of late going 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes an upset home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves as 6.5-point favorites last time out. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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03-27-23 | Mavs v. Pacers +1 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +1 Note: I released this play before the news of Luka Doncic having his 16th technical rescinded, thus being able to play tonight. I would still make this a 20* play at the current line of Pacers +4. The Mavericks have been terrible with or without Doncic, and he will be on tired legs. I still think the Pacers win this game outright. The Indiana Pacers are still fighting to stay alive for a play-in spot in the East. Five of their last six games have come against playoff teams and all on the road, and they managed to win two of them as 12-point dogs at Milwaukee and 9.5-point dogs at Toronto. Now the Pacers are back home here for just the 2nd time in their lats nine games. The Pacers are 19-17 SU & 21-14-1 ATS at home this season and welcome the hapless Dallas Mavericks, who are falling apart at the seams. They just they lost four consecutive games including back-to-back losses to the Hornets as 15.5-point home favorites and 12.5-point road favorites. Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical foul yesterday against the Hornets and scored 40 points in the process. But now they won't have his scoring because he has been suspended for this game, terrible timing for the star player on a team that is currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I just don't trust this team at all right now as they are simply imploding. Rick Carlisle has stuck it to his former team with the Pacers after he got fired by the Mavericks. The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Dallas. He would love nothing more than to deal them another blow to their playoff hopes. The Pacers had yesterday off, while the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days. Dallas is 5-17 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS as road favorites this season. Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Pacers Monday. |
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03-26-23 | Nets v. Magic -2 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight. Three starters played at least 34 minutes last night in their upset win over the Miami Heat in Bridges, Dinwiddie and Claxton. They won't have much left in the tank tonight for Orlando, and this is now a bit of a letdown spot for them. The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the second half of the season. They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes an upset road win over the Clippers, a 3-point loss at Phoenix, a 6-point loss at LA Lakers, a 10-point home win over the Wizards and a 5-point home win over the Knicks. Now they come in rested and ready to go after having the last two days off. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is getting too much respect off that upset win at Miami last night. Bet the Magic Sunday. |
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03-25-23 | Pacers +9.5 v. Hawks | 130-143 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5 The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots. They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team. The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing. Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota. Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight. Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season. Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win. The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest. Bet the Pacers Saturday. |
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03-24-23 | Suns v. Kings -3 | 127-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3 The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now. With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two. That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Their lone win came at home against the Magic by 3 as 8-point favorites. They lost on the road to the Lakers by 11, the Warriors by 11 and the Thunder by 4. They also lost at home to the Bucks by 12 and the Kings by 9, so they have rarely even been competitive of late. It's too much on Devin Booker's shoulders and he can't carry the load. The Kings should be more than 3-point home favorites tonight considering they are fully healthy and playing well. They also come in off consecutive losses and will be motivated for a victory, plus they come in on two days' rest. The Kings can inch closer to winning the division tonight, and it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at home tonight as Sacramento fans absolutely love this team, especially when they are in contention. The Kings are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game in this spot. This one has blowout written all over it tonight. Bet the Kings Friday. |
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03-24-23 | Bulls -2 v. Blazers | Top | 124-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2 The Chicago Bulls are battling here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs. They are currently 10th in the East and in the final play-in spot. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Kings and 76ers. They upset the 76ers as 8.5-point road dogs and upset the Nuggets as 9-point road dogs during this stretch. Now the Bulls take on the hapless Portland Trail Blazers, who are simply going through the motions here down the stretch as they have been all but eliminated from the playoffs. The Blazers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with five losses by 14 points or more. They are without Simons and Grant right now and could be without Nurkic, leaving way too much on Damian Lillard's shoulders to handle. The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four home games losing by 11, 14, 15 and 16 points. They have zero home-court advantage right now as the fans have given up on this team this season. I'll gladly back the more motivated, healthier Bulls tonight. Bet the Bulls Friday. |
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03-24-23 | Pacers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12.5 The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are in 11th place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bulls and 2 games behind the Raptors for the final two play-in spots. They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team. The Pacers are coming off a 118-114 win at Toronto as 9.5-point dogs without Tyrese Haliburton. There's a decent chance they get him back tonight, which would mean they are at full strength. But they have been a money maker even without him, going 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. This is a terrible spot for the Celtics as it's their first game back home following a six-game road trip. I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions to deal with at home, and it tends to be a flat spot. The Pacers are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with two outright wins as 9.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss as a 15-point dog and a 4-point loss in OT as a 7.5-point dog. It's safe to say the Pacers match up very well with the Celtics, and getting 12.5 points is too much tonight. Bet the Pacers Friday. |
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03-22-23 | Suns v. Lakers +1 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
15* Suns/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1 The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now. With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two. That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Yet the Suns continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers. This is a Lakers team that needs wins like blood right now trying to make the Western Conference playoffs. It's also a Lakers team that is fully healthy with the exception of LeBron James, and unlike the Suns, they are deep enough to still win without him. The Lakers are 9-5 SU & 8-5-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup and is playing well as the Lakers have scored 108 or more points in eight consecutive games now. Anthony Davis is playing like the superstar they need him to be and will dominate tonight not having to face Ayton, and the role players are all doing their parts as well to try and get this team into the playoffs. Bet the Lakers Wednesday. |
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03-22-23 | Blazers v. Jazz -4.5 | 127-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -4.5 The Utah Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs right now in 10th place in the West just a half-game ahead of both the Lakers and Pelicans. They have come up clutch going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 4 points apiece to the Mavericks and Heat, both on the road in games they covered. They have done this despite missing both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Lauri Markkanen has even missed some games, but he is upgraded to probable tonight. The Jazz are showing they are much deeper than they get credit for, and I know I'm going to get max effort from them tonight given what they've shown of late and their current standing. I also think it's safe to assume we are going to get a below average effort from the Blazers, who just seem to be going through the motions right now 4 games out of a playoff spot. The Blazers are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 22 at Boston, by 17 at New Orleans, by 16 at home to New York, by 16 at home to Boston and by 15 at home to the Clippers. As you can see, the Blazers haven't even been competitive during this six-game losing streak. They are without two of their top three scorers right now in Anfernee Simons (21.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jerami Grant (20.5 PPG), and Damian Lillard has been voicing his frustration in the media. It's just a really bad look for the Blazers right now, and there's no reason to believe they are going to show up tonight. Utah is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games coming in. The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Jazz Wednesday. |
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03-22-23 | Pacers +9.5 v. Raptors | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5 The Indiana Pacers are getting healthier and trying to make one final playoff push. They are 2.5 games back of the Bulls for 10th and 3 games back of the Raptors. Well, they get to play the Raptors tonight with a chance to cut into that deficit. The Pacers clearly match up well with the Raptors. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them this season winning 118-104 and 122-114. There's a chance the Raptors are without Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.7 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Asking the Raptors to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet the Pacers Wednesday. |
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03-21-23 | Thunder +7 v. Clippers | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7 The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and earn a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with six wins by 9 points or more and are currently the 9th seed in the West and one win away from getting back to .500 on the season. The Los Angeles Clippers are also playing better of late but it's not like they are blowing out the opposition. They are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three wins by 8 points or fewer, and an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic as 6.5-point favorites. The Thunder have the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Thunder have owned the Clippers, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with four outright upsets, including two in two meetings this season. The Clippers are 2-12 ATS in home games following a road game this season. The Thunder are 14-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
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03-21-23 | Cavs -2.5 v. Nets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 I like the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They come in on three days' rest last playing on Friday. There's a good chance they are fully healthy tonight as C Jarrett Allen has been upgraded to questionable, and everyone else is a go for the Cavaliers. They should be bigger favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 14 at OKC, by 5 at home to the Kings and by 6 at home to the Nuggets. They aren't on the same level as the Cavaliers right now. Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The Nets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game. Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. |
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03-20-23 | Warriors v. Rockets +11 | 121-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +11 The Golden State Warriors are 0-11 SU & 0-11 ATS in their last 11 road games with nine losses by 8 points or more. They have rarely even been competitive on the highway. The Warriors are now 7-29 SU & 9-27 ATS on the road this season. In what world should they be double-digit road favorites against anyone? The Houston Rockets are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late and will relish this opportunity to face the defending champs. I think that's a big reason for Golden State's road struggles this season is they get the opposing team's best effort, plus games are usually close to being sold out with them coming to town. It's an even bigger home-court advantage than normal. Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with three outright upsets over Boston, the Lakers and Pelicans. They came back and lost to the Pelicans last night, but that was a letdown spot after beating them two days earlier. It was also a lookahead spot with the Warriors on deck. They will be back to being locked in for this game tonight. Houston has lost just one of its last nine games by more than 10 points. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS as road favorites this season. Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following four consecutive games where they went under the total. Bet the Rockets Monday. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5 The Chicago Bulls sit in 10th place in the East and in the final play-in spot. They are just 1.5 games ahead of both the Pacers and Wizards for that spot. They are clearly fighting hard to try to make the playoffs with the way they have been playing of late. Indeed, the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall winning by 21 as 9-point dogs at Denver, by 8 at Houston, by 8 at home over Minnesota and by 14 at home over Miami after playing the second of a back-to-back. Their lone loss came by 3 at home to the Kings on a buzzer-beater. The Kings are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. It's time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They followed up a five-game road trip with a buzzer-beater 120-119 home win over the Blazers, who are playing terrible right now. The 76ers now return home from a three-game road trip before going back on the road for four more games. There will be distractions to deal with at home with so many road games of late and coming up that I think we get a flat effort from the 76ers here. Chicago is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog. The Bulls won 126-112 as 4.5-point road dogs in their last trip to Philadelphia on January 6th. This number is inflated tonight folks. Bet the Bulls Monday. |
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03-19-23 | Suns v. Thunder -1 | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1 The Phoenix Suns are without two of their best players in Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton right now. It's no wonder they are struggling as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming over the Magic by 3 as 8-point home favorites. They lost by 9 at home to Sacramento, by 11 at Golden State and by 12 at home to Milwaukee. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most underrated team in the NBA for two seasons running now. They are legit playoff contenders this season and fighting hard to make the postseason right now. The Thunder have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with both losses coming on the road. Amazingly, all six wins came by 9 points or more. One of those losses came to the Suns on the road, but that was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off a home win over the defending champion Warriors. So they were tired and in a letdown spot, while Phoenix was on two days' rest. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out that game as well. Now it's the Thunder that are on two days' rest coming into this revenge spot. Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more. The Thunder are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 Sunday games. Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Phoenix. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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03-18-23 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 The Miami Heat are getting healthy and playing up to their potential right now. They have gone 5-2 SU in their last five games overall with all five wins coming against playoff contenders. Now they have had the last two days off, so they are rested and ready to go in Chicago tonight. The same cannot be said for the Bulls, who are coming off a double-OT 139-131 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. DeRozan played over 51 minutes, LaVine 46 and Vucevic 45 last night for the Bulls. They clearly won't have anything left in the tank for the Heat tonight. Home-court advantage has meant little int his series as the road team is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 meetings with Chicago. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Chicago. The Bulls are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Heat Saturday. |
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03-18-23 | Magic +7 v. Clippers | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7 It's time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Clippers after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a win over the defending champion Clippers, which sets them up for a letdown spot. And they won't have their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he rests today, and they have been terrible without him this season. Conversely, it's time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule. Three of the losses came by 7 points or less, including a 3-point loss at Phoenix as 8-point dogs last time out. The Magic are basically fully healthy right now and will give the Clippers a run for their money. The Magic are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games. Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss. The Clippers are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on two days' rest. Orlando is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 trips to Los Angeles. Bet the Magic Saturday. |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies v. Spurs +9 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9 The San Antonio Spurs are 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall and not tanking. They were very impressive in their last two games crushing Orlando 132-114 as 5-point home dogs and taking the Dallas Mavericks to OT as 5-point home dogs the next night. The Spurs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and have each of their top seven scorers expected to play tonight. They are good enough to give the Memphis Grizzlies a run for their money tonight and won't be taking it easy on their division rivals. Memphis has no business being a 9-point road favorites over the Spurs without JA Morant, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. The Grizzlies are coming off a 119-138 loss at Miami and are now 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Dallas, which was playing without Doncic, Irving and Wood. The Grizzlies are now 13-22 SU & 12-21-2 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Grizzlies, all of which were decided by 8 points or less. Bet the Spurs Friday. |
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03-17-23 | Warriors v. Hawks -4 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4 The Golden State Warriors are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games with seven losses by 8 points or more. They have rarely even been competitive on the highway. The Warriors are now 7-27 SU & 9-25 ATS on the road this season. I cashed against them with a 25* on the Clippers -2 on Wednesday and they won and covered despite 50 points from Steph Curry. You could see how dejected Curry was doing so much for this team, yet it still isn't enough. Now Curry is questionable to play tonight with a thumb injury, and the Warriors will be without both Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, who is serving a suspension. The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and rested and highly motivated for a victory coming off consecutive losses to the Celtics and Timberwolves. They have had the last three days off, so they couldn't possibly be any more fresh. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 9th game in 16 days. The spot and the injuries really favor the home team in this one. Bet the Hawks Friday. |
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03-16-23 | Thunder +6 v. Raptors | Top | 111-128 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +6 The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now trying to make the playoffs. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are now one win away from getting back to .500 for the season. Amazingly, all six of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they are simply blowing teams out including playoff contenders like the Jazz (twice), Warriors, Pelicans and Nets. The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They are getting too much respect from a blowout win over the Nuggets last time out. But they wanted revenge on Denver after losing to them on the road the week prior, and they were coming in on three days' rest. That now makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors after getting their revenge against the Nuggets, who have the best record in the West but aren't playing well at all right now as they have been just going through the motions. Oklahoma City is a 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. Atlantic Division opponents. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS following two straight wins by 10 points or more this season. Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win by 15 points or more as an underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Oklahoma City tonight. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -2 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They are quickly forming chemistry with Westbrook, George and Leonard and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point at Sacramento. They beat three playoff contenders in Toronto, Memphis and New York at home. Now the Clippers have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. They are rested and ready to go and primed for a big effort tonight against the defending champion Warriors. I think this number is way short considering the favorable spot for the Clippers tonight. I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Warriors coming off two hard-fought home wins over the Bucks and Suns. It's a letdown spot off those two huge victories. The Warriors will now be playing their 7th game in 13 days and are still without Andrew Wiggins and others. But with Steph Curry back, they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. The problem all season for the Warriors has been their home/road splits. They have been a dominant home team, but the reason they are just 36-33 on the season after winning the title last year is because they are just 7-26 SU & 9-24 ATS on the road. They haven't been able to correct their road woes all season even when Curry was healthy. The Warriors are 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games losing outright to Minnesota as favorites, losing by 17 at Denver, by 3 as 2.5-point dogs at Portland, by 10 to the Clippers, by 13 to the Lakers, by 8 to the Lakers, by 9 to the Thunder and by 21 to the Grizzlies. They've rarely even been competitive in these road losses, and they won't be tonight given the favorable spot for Los Angeles. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday. |
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03-15-23 | Lakers v. Rockets +4 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4 The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-108 win in New Orleans last night. Now they have to travel to Houston to take on the pesky Rockets, and they won't have Anthony Davis for this one after he led the way with 35 points against the Pelicans last night. They will be without both LeBron and Davis now and can't be trusted without these two. The Rockets have quietly gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are as healthy as they have been all season. That includes a pair of blowout wins over the Spurs, an upset win over the Celtics as 12.5-point dogs, and they took both the Pacers (OT) and the Bulls to the wire. They had three players score at least 20 points in the win over the Celtics last time out and are a very talented, young team that is not tanking. The Rockets are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with the Lakers and were competitive in all six that were decided by 10 points or fewer. The Lakers are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games following a road win. Los Angeles is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games following a win by 10 points or more. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
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03-14-23 | Magic -5 v. Spurs | Top | 114-132 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -5 The Orlando Magic continue to show up on a nightly basis and are a young team looking to improve to close out the season. They are also fully healthy right now, and they have been a dangerous team when that has been the case. The San Antonio Spurs are 4-24 SU in their last 28 games overall. They are also 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Amazingly, each of San Antonio's last 24 losses during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, and 17 of their last 21 losses have come by double-digits. The Spurs have rarely even been competitive largely due to all the injuries they are dealing with right now which could be partially due to tanking. The Spurs are without Tre Jones, Romeo Langford, Malaki Brandham and Jeremy Sochan right now and they could be without Keldon Johnson, who is questionable. That's three of their top four scorers. Bet the Magic Tuesday. |
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03-13-23 | Jazz +8 v. Heat | Top | 115-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +8 The Utah Jazz will be completing their five-game road trip here Monday and want to end it with another victory. They have four days off after this, so they will be 'all in' tonight for a win. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games only losing by 4 at Dallas as 10-point dogs, upsetting Orlando by 7 as 4-point dogs and topping Charlotte by 8 as 1-point favorites. I don't think Miami can be trusted to lay this kind of number with the way they are playing right now. The Heat are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 gams overall with their four wins coming by 2, 8, 2 and 4 points. In fact, Miami hasn't won any of its last 23 games by more than 8 points making for a 23-0 system backing the Jazz pertaining to this 8-point spread. Each of Miami's last 11 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. The Heat are also a tired team right now playing their 7th game in 11 days. They are coming off an OT loss at Orlando to boot. They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz, which will make it hard for them to put them away by margin. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Utah is 24-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet the Jazz Monday. |
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03-12-23 | Knicks v. Lakers -2.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 The Los Angeles Lakers still have plenty of talent to win without LeBron James and are proving it. They have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall including two upset wins over Golden State, an upset win at Dallas, an upset win at OKC and two upset home wins over Memphis and Toronto coming in. Anthony Davis is playing like a superstar, scoring at least 28 points in five of his last six games. De'Angelo Russell just returned from injury for the Lakers last time out and scored 28 points with 9 assists in a 122-112 victory over Toronto. Beasley, Schroder, Walker IV, Hachimura, Reaves, Vanderbilt and Brown Jr. all have key roles on this team and are playing them well. While the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days after a 95-106 loss to the Clippers yesterday. The Knicks are a contender in the East is due to the addition of Jalen Brunson (23.8 PPG, 6.1 APG), one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Unfortunately for the Knicks, Brunson suffered a foot injury two games back and sat out yesterday. He's unlikely to return tonight. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Lakers) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 40-49% of their games on the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Lakers Sunday. |
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03-12-23 | Blazers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers PK The Portland Trail Blazers just got two starters back in Anfernee Simons (21.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jusuf Nurkic (13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG) for the stretch run. They took the 76ers to the brink last time out losing 119-120 as 8.5-point road dogs. I think they come back here and get a win at short-handed New Orleans. The Pelicans are banged up right now and struggling to win games, going 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are without Zion, Nance and Alvarado and could be without Brandon Ingram again tonight. They didn't have him last night in their 96-110 upset home loss to the Thunder, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here and won't have much left in the tank for Portland. Bet the Blazers Sunday. |
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03-11-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 134-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5 It's time to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall going through one of their worst stretches of the season. It has had to do with a tough schedule coupled with some injuries to key players. But the Celtics are now healthy, rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. The only key player they are missing is Robert Williams, who they have gotten used to playing without the past two seasons. They got right in a 115-93 victory over Portland on Wednesday and now I'm expecting another blowout in their favor tonight. This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a hard-fought 114-107 win over the Washington Wizards last night. They have played four consecutive games that went to the wire and are simply out of gas right now. They won't have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight. Boston is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Atlanta winnings by 10, 9 and 25 points. The Hawks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more. The Celtics are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Atlanta is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following an ATS win. Bet the Celtics Saturday. |
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03-11-23 | Heat v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to try and take down their hated Florida rivals in the Miami Heat. But this is more of a fade against Miami than it is a play on Orlando. This is a terrible spot for the Heat. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a double-digit comeback victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, getting revenge from a loss to the Cavaliers the game prior. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Heat, which is about as difficult a situation as there is in the NBA. Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following three consecutive ATS losses. Miami is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win. The Heat are 10-27-2 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU win. The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Bet the Magic Saturday. |
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03-09-23 | Knicks v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5 The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 38-26 SU & 35-28-1 ATS this season and currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference. Yet nobody wants to give this team the respect they deserve. Now the Kings come in fully healthy and on two days' rest and are primed for a big effort at home on National TV on TNT. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA when they are good. I think they make easy work of the Knicks tonight. It's time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 105-112 upset home loss to Charlotte. I always like fading teams the game after having an extended winning streak snapped because there tends to be a 'hangover' effect. They aren't as motivated to keep their winning streak alive anymore. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have a huge betting bandwagon right now. That's why we'll 'sell high' on them. Their best player in Jalen Brunson (23.9 PPG, 6.2 APG) is nursing an ankle injury right now and questionable to play tonight. Brunson has been on a tear averaging 27.5 PPG in his last 10 games. Bet the Kings Thursday. |
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03-08-23 | Hawks -3 v. Wizards | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -3 The Washington Wizards are in a brutal spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after a 119-117 win in Detroit last night. They struggled to beat the lowly Pistons, which meant their starters had to play big minutes to close the deal. That will leave them on tired legs tonight and with not much left in the tank for the Hawks. Atlanta comes in highly motivated for a victory following consecutive losses in Miami prior to having yesterday off. They also want revenge from a 116-119 home loss to the Wizards on February 28th just over a week ago. I expect the Hawks to win with room to spare tonight given the favorable spot both from a motivation and rest perspective. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a road win are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Hawks Wednesday. |
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03-07-23 | 76ers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2 The Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with road wins over the Clippers, Lakers and Kings. Now they have had the last two days off to rest and prepare to face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The 76ers don't have that same luxury. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA. They have been life and death in each of their last three games, including last night in a 147-143 shootout win at Indiana. Embiid played 37 minutes, Harden 39 and Maxey 37 last night. The 76ers could elect to rest some starters tonight, and they were already without both Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker, two starters. They might be wise to just punt this game and rest everyone given the circumstances. Plays against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - off a road win scoring 110 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days is 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks v. Magic +7.5 | 134-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5 The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 26-15 ATS in their last 41 games overall and continue to show up on a nightly basis. They clearly aren't tanking. The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Dating back further, the Magic are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. Adding to their motivation is the fact that they just lost in Milwaukee on March 1st less than a week ago. The Bucks are overvalued right now due to their recent 16-game winning streak that was ended with a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia. They did go on to beat the Wizards by 6 on the road, and I don't see them getting margin against the Magic tonight, either. This one will got to the wire so getting 7.5 points with Orlando is a nice value. Bet the Magic Tuesday. |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -6 I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be out for revenge from a 113-117 loss at Boston on March 1st. Now they get to face them again at home this time around five days later. The Cavaliers are 27-7 SU & 23-11 ATS at home this season. The Boston Celtics are struggling going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a double-OT loss to the New York Knicks last night. Tatum played 48 minutes, Brown, 47, Horford 45, Willaims 44 , Smart 39 and White 32 last night. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Cavaliers and may rest some guys. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS following a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. The Cavaliers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of great than .600. Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Cavaliers Monday. |
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03-05-23 | Blazers v. Magic -2 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games overall and continue to show up on a nightly basis. They clearly aren't tanking. The Portland Trail Blazers have some significant injuries that have led to them going just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three victories coming at home. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in road games during this stretch losing by 18 at Atlanta, by 18 at Golden State, by 17 at Sacramento and by 8 at Chicago. They are without both Simons (21.1 PPG) and Nurkic (13.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG) right now. Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games. The Magic are 16-6 ATS vs. Western Conference opponents this season. Portland is 3-13 ATS vs. teams that win 40-49% of their games this season. The Blazers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games. Orlando is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one day of rest. Bet the Magic Sunday. |
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03-03-23 | Clippers +6.5 v. Kings | 127-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes two OT losses and a blown double-digit lead to the Warriors. They are close to putting it together. I think the Clippers fire back with an inspired effort tonight out for revenge from a historic 175-176 (double OT) loss to the Sacramento Kings in their first game back from the All-Star Break on February 24th. Now they get their shot at revenge here a week later, and I think this one goes down to the wire again, so getting 6.5 points with the Clippers is a really nice value. We'll 'sell high' on the Kings, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule of the Blazers, that double OT win over the Clippers and beating the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander twice by single-digits. The Clippers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover four of their last five coming in. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against an opponent that went over the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Clippers Friday. |
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03-03-23 | Magic -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -3.5 Tough break for the Charlotte Hornets after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, they lost their best player in La'Melo Ball (23.3 PPG, 8.4 APG, 6.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury. They promptly lost by 14 at home to the Suns in their first game without him. They are also without PJ Washington (15.3 PPG) right now. The Orlando Magic are fully healthy and should make easy work of the short-handed Hornets. The Magic continue to battle here down the stretch, especially when coming off a loss. The Magic are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Dating back further, the Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points. Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games. Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. The Hornets will have questionable motivation the rest of the way without Ball. Bet the Magic Friday. |
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03-02-23 | Clippers -3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. We'll 'buy low' on them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. That assures they will be highly motivated for a victory, and now they've had a few games to work out their chemistry with Russell Westbrook. At their best, this Clippers team is one of the best in the league and would crush this current version of the Golden State Warriors. While the Clippers are fully healthy, the Warriors are without their two best players in Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins right now. They have six players on the injury report currently including Jordan Poole. This version of them isn't good enough to hang with the Clippers, not even at home. Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after failing to cover five or six of its last seven games coming in. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against a team that is off a home win where they scored 110 or more points are 31-7 (81.6%) since 1996. Bet the Clippers Thursday. |
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03-01-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Bucks | 117-139 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks following 15 consecutive victories. But now is the spot they let down playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a comeback win at Brooklyn from 10 points down at halftime last night. The Orlando Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games overall. The Magic are fully healthy right now and ultra competitive even against the best teams in the NBA. Indeed, the Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Bet the Magic Wednesday. |