Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* CFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Riders/Ti-Cats (7:30 EST). A couple of 2-2 teams collide on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Saskatchewan is a sizeable underdog in this one, but note that it’s won five of its last seven road games. Zach Collaros has two TD passes and two INT’s this year. So far the ground game is averaging 110 yards per contest, with Jerome Messam leading the way with 110 yards on 32 carries. Receivers Shaquelle Evans and Naaman Roosevelt have combined for 310 receiving yards and two major scores. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has 1,378 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s so far this season. His favorite targets have been Jalen Saunders and Brandon Banks, who have combined fro 675 receiving yards and two TD’s. Luke Tasker has also excelled with 20 receptions. The Roughriders have QB issues and whoever gets the start of the visitors (possibly Brandon Bridges), I like Saskatchewan to keep this one competitive. With the home side looking to open up the playbook and to push the pace, the Riders will be forced to match that tempo. (additional O/U ATS supporting stats added shortly) Saskatchewan won’t be going down without a fight and it has history on its side, having won four straight in this series. As mentioned off the top, everything points to these clubs battling tooth and nail and for this total to soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Ti-Cats/Riders (9:00 EST). Hamilton will be looking to keep the pedal to the metal in Week 4 and extend its lead in the East. Hamilton wasn’t expected to do much out East, but the Ti-Cats enter this Week 4 matchup sitting at 2-1. Hamilton would spilt a two-game season opening road trip and then return home to beat Winnipeg 31-17 last week as a five-point favorite. Ti-Cats’ QB Jeremiah Masoli, perhaps motivated with Johnny Manziel waiting patiently in the wings for his turn to shine, has in fact dominated himself to open the year. Most recently he threw for 369 yards and a TD. Masoli has now thrown for 300 yards in eight straight games, tying Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo and Edmonton’s Mike Reilly for second most in league history. Hamilton’s ground game looked sharp as well, with Mercer Timmis rushing for two major scores, while Sean Thomas-Erlington had 92 yards on 11 carries. Saskatchewan lost the services of starting QB Zach Collaros and went to Brandon Bridges last week and the result was a 23-17 setback at home to the Alouettes as a ten point favorite. Bridge was pulled at half time after going just 8 of 18 for 111 yards and two INT’s. Bridge should settle down here in his second start of the season though and he will benefit from the friendly confines as well. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton has seen the total go over the posted number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 points, while Saskatchewan has seen the total eclipse the number in seven of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my estimation, the conditions are definitely correct for a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Riders/Redblacks (7:30 EST). Two teams gunning for a victory on Thursday night in Week 2 of the Canadian Football League and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Ottawa would finish 8-9-1 last year, which was still good enough for second spot in the East Division. Ottawa though was just 3-5-1 at home in the regular season, an area in which it hopes to approve dramatically in in 2018, starting against the high-flying Roughriders. The Redblacks would ultimately fall to Saskatchewan 31-20 in the Eastern Semi-Final. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris though finished with 457 yards and two TD’s that day. Ottawa also lost to the Roughriders 18-17 in Week 15 of the regular season, but it got some small amount of revenge with a 33-32 victory on the road two weeks later. Harris finished tied for No. 1 with 30 TD strikes in 2017. The Roughriders looked sharp in their 27-19 win over Toronto at home as three point underdogs in Week 1. While the defense did look good at home, I think it’ll have its hands full here against an Ottawa team looking to make some noise on Opening night. Saskatchewan will once again be leaning heavily on QB Zach Collaros, who was 18 of 25 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Jerome Messam was a standout as well with 72 yards on 21 carries, while also catching two passes. I expect each team to open up the play book and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game come down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto OVER 55 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Redblacks/Argos (7:30 EST). The 1-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks get ready to battle the 2-2 Toronto Argonauts on Monday night. Ottawa got off the schneid with its first victory of the year last week, but it’s still just 2-4 in its last six on the road. Redblacks QB Trevor Harris has 1,755 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s this year. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the tandem of Brad Sinopoli and Greg Ellingson, who have 999 receiving yards and four TD’s this year. Ottawa has been atrocious defensively though in conceding an average of 30.8 points and 413.2 YPG. Toronto has lost six of its last eight at home. QB Ricky Ray has 1,529 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s so far. DeVier Posey and SJ Green have combined for 732 receiving yards and three TD’s. The Argos have been sharp defensively in allowing only 25.2 points and 354.4 YPG, but it’s interesting to note that they’ve seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine in Week’s 5 through 9. And note, Ottawa has seen the total go over the number in two of three as an underdog already this year. I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-16 | BC v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 40-27 | Win | 100 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Lions/Roughriders (7:00 EST). BC is 2-1, the Lions would open with a 20-18 win over Calgary at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a 28-3 victory at Hamilton a week later. They fell to Toronto 25-14 in their last game. So far all three contests have fallen below the number. Saskatchewan has played twice, losing to Toronto at home 30-17 and then dropping a tight one to Edmonton 39-36 on the road in overtime. The over/under is 1-1 so far for the Riders. BC is in for a big test today facing Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant, who has already tossed for more than 600 yards and five TD’s, four of them coming in the victory over the normally stingy Eskimos. Lions pivot Jonathon Jennings will be forced to match pace, I think it’s important to note that BC has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three when playing with eight days rest. Also note that Saskatchewan has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 19 after two or more consecutive SU losses. With BC out to establish its anemic offense and with the Riders looking notch their first victory of the season, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton OVER 49 | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 103 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is the over Riders/Eskimos. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting the total to have eclipsed the posted number. Last week the Roughriders fell 30-17 at home to the surprising Argonauts. Saskatchewan drew a “bye” in its first week but was unable to take advantage of the situation. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Roughriders to respond with a much better effort in their second opportunity of the season. Edmonton on the other hand would fall 45-37 in its opener at Ottawa, eventually succumbing in OT. The Eskimos offense was firing on all cylinders, but the team looked out of sorts defensively. With both team’s sitting at 0-1, I’m expecting each to open up the playbook tonight. I’ll point out that Saskatchewan has in fact seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 20 when playing the role of underdog, while Edmonton has seen the total sail over the number in three of its last four following a bye-week. The last time these teams met, Edmonton would hold on for the 35-24 victory. I believe we’re going to see another high-scoring battle in this one as well. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |