Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-24-24 | Utah State v. Purdue UNDER 149 | Top | 67-106 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Utah State has gone over the total in 5 straight games. Things will change against a Purdue team off a dominant defensive effort! The Boilermakers held Grambling to only 50 points in round 1. The under is now 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 tries in an NCAA tournament game. The Boilermakers aren't always as high-scoring as some of the other top teams in this tournament. They have failed to score more than 80 points in any of their last 5 games. When the Aggies play with more than 1 days rest, their games average more than 150 points. When they play with 1 day of rest or less, their games average only 137 points. Go with the Under! |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This number is too low. This is likely going to be a competitive game. The winning team is probably going to score more than 70 points. Yet, the losing team isn't going to get blown out. Drake scores 80.5 points a game. Washington State scores 74.3. Cougar games average more than 140 points. Bulldog games average more than 150. Off an 84-80 win, the Bulldogs have scored more than 70 points in each of their last 11 games. The Cougars are off a low-scoring game but their previous 4 games all finished above 140. They are 7-2 to the over after allowing 60 points or less. Drake is 4-2 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Washington State is 7-4-1 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over! |
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03-15-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 137.5 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Yesterday's results don't tell the whole story as both these teams went to Overtime. The Aztecs are 34-18-1 to the under their last 53 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. That includes a 4-0 under mark in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5. Before yesterday's over due to overtime, the Aztecs were 6-0 to the under their previous 6 conference tournament games. Utah State can score but SD State is 13-6 to the under last 19 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. The Aggies are 4-1 to the under in their 5 neurtal court games. They are also 2-0 to the under when playing with 1 or less days rest. The last h2h meeting stayed below the total by more than 10 points. This will be another defensive battle! Go with the Under! |
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02-26-24 | Prairie View A&M v. Mississippi Valley State OVER 136 | Top | 51-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
What can you say about Mississippi Valley State? Projected in the preseason to finish last in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, the Delta Devils haven't disappointed. They are now 0-27 on the season! Most of their games have gone under but there have been certain spots where the over has hit. This will be another of those. When playing at home with an O/U line of 135 to 139.5, the Delta Devils are 2-0 to the over. The over is 6-3 their last 9 in that situation. Over the same time-frame, the Delta Devils are 18-8 to the over when playing with revenge. Neither team plays good defense. The Delta Devils allow more than 79 points a game. The Panthers allow more than 76 per game, 78.6 per game on the road. This game will feature plenty of scoring. Southwestern Athletic TOY |
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02-25-24 | UAB v. Tulane OVER 161.5 | Top | 78-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
They can't make this total high enough. The earlier meeting finished at only 152 but that was a game where Tulane didn't score. At home, the Green Wave will get a lot more than they 69 they scored that day. Why can I say that with such certainty? Because UAB just allowed 94 points last game and more importantly because Tulane averages 88.7 points per home game. Tulane is 12-4 to the over its past 16 tries when revenging a road loss. The Green Wave are 26-14-1 to the over in home lined games the last 3 years. During the same timeframe, UBA is 20-12 to the over on the road. The Blazers are also 13-5 to the over after allowing 80 or more points. The only previous time that Tulane lost 3 straight, the Green Wave answered with a 92-80 win. This will be another shootout! |
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02-24-24 | North Alabama v. Bellarmine OVER 142 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Some recent lower scores have brought this number down and it is now too low. North Alabama games average more than 152 points. The Bellarmine shooters are going to relish the opportunity to face the Lions who give up more than 79 points per game on the road. The Lions can score with the best of the A-10 teams though and thats why they are favored. The Knights are 11-7 to the over their last 18 tries when listed as underdogs. The Lions are 12-5 to the over their last 17 tries, when playing with 1 or less days rest. I've got this one finishing well over the number. |
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02-22-24 | Tenn-Martin v. Lindenwood OVER 148.5 | Top | 106-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The first meeting had a higher O|U line than this. This one is too low. With the Skyhawks off an 88-82 victory over Morehead State, it's going to be another barn-burner tonight. Tennessee Martin is 3-1 to the over after scoring 80 or more. The Skyhawks average more than 80 points and their games average more than 156. Lindenwood is off a lower-scoring game. The Lions lost 72-57 at Eastern Illinois. They gave up more than 90 (91-63 loss) in their previous game though and they are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games with a total, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. Last year, these teams played a lower-scoring first game and the rematch was higher-scoring and finished over the total. That's what'll happen again this year. Go with the Over. |
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02-20-24 | Fordham v. Davidson OVER 135.5 | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
For a game involving the Fordham Rams, this total is too low. Fordham's last game had 148 points. The Rams have allowed 75 or more points in each of their last 3 games. They have allowed 65 or more (and as many as 119) in 15 straight games. Davidson's last game had 136 in regulation, 161 with OT. For the season, Davidson games are averaging 138.5. Their previous game versus Fordham exceeded that average finishing with 148. Davidson is 6-1 to the over its last 7 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Fordham is 7-1 its last 8 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over! |
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02-18-24 | Seton Hall v. St. John's UNDER 145.5 | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
These are two bubble teams, both coming in hungry for a victory. This season's first meeting slipped under the total and this one will be even lower-scoring. The Pirates don't score nearly as many points on the road. They managed only 54 points in their last road game. Seton Hall did respond with a big game versus Xavier. That was at home though and the Pirates are 13-6-1 to the under the past 20x times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game. The Red Storm lost the first meeting and they are also off a loss in their last game. They are 6-3-1 to the under off a loss and they are also 3-0 to the under their last 3x that they played with road revenge. Give me the Under! |
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02-15-24 | Georgia State v. James Madison OVER 154 | Top | 63-83 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
It's not going out on a limb to say that James Madison is very likely going to win this game. The Dukes are 22-3 and favored by 2 touchdowns. The Panthers are 11-13 and 4-10 on the road. The question becomes: what kind of game will it be? Will the Dukes dominate the Panthers with their defense or run them out the door with their offense? A look to last season provides a valuable clue. The Dukes blew out the Panthers in both games last year but they did so in 2 very different fashions. In the gam at Georgia State, they dominated defensively, a 63-47 victory. The game at James Madison played out differently, the Dukes ran the Panthers out of the building in a 90-69 offensive thrashing. With JMU averaging more than 86 points at home and GSU allowing 79 ppg on the road, this one will play out like last year's game here did. The Panthers will move to 10-5 to the over in their road games. Go with the OVER! |
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02-14-24 | Boston University v. Army OVER 124 | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a very low total. These may not be offensive super-powers but the number is still too low. Boston is 13-6 to the over last 3 years when a total was in the 120s. Army is 7-4 to the over the last 3 years when a total was in the 120s. Boston is 18-7 to the over its last 25 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Terriers are 3-0 to the over this month and the over is now 14-4 in their February games the last 3 seasons. This month's games have all finished with at least 138 points. Army is off a 136 point game versus Navy. That game also had a low total but the final score finished well above it. Last month's game finished over and the over is 5-1 the past 6 meetings. Go with the Over! |
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02-13-24 | Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This total is a few points higher than it was for last month's game at Air Force. With both teams currently struggling to hit the basket, it's too high. Air Force has scored 56, 64 and 66 points its last 3 games. All three games had lower totals than this one. But those opponents could score. Tonight the Falcons face a San Jose State squad which has scored 60, 57 and 47 its last 3 games. The Spartans have scored 65 or less in 5 straight. The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 to the under the past 3x that they were road underdogs, or pick, of 3 or less. Before last month's game finished at 137, the previous 4 meetings all finished with 134 or less. This one will also stay below that number! |
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02-11-24 | Northern Iowa v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 138.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
A number in the 130s at this venue, with these teams, is too low. The Panthers play higher-scoring games away from home. Northern Iowa road games average 147.1 points. The opposite is true of Illinois-Chicago. The Flames play higher-scoring games at home. Their games here average 143.9 points. The Panthers are 19-11 to the over their last 30 tries when off a conference win. The Flames are 10-5 to the over their last 15 off a conference win and 11-7 to the over their last 18 when playing with revenge. The O|U line was 138.5 when the Panthers played here last season. Sound familiar? The final score was 150. Go with the Over! |
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02-10-24 | Santa Clara v. San Francisco UNDER 151.5 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
San Francisco can score plenty of points but that's been factored into this very high total. Too high. The Dons are already 2-0 to the under this season when the O/U line was in the 150s. Both games finished in the 140s. Santa Clara often has trouble scoring. The Broncos managed only 59 points last game. They had a similar 58-point effort versus Yale. Less than a month ago, they scored only 49 against St. Mary's. They are 7-3 to the under their last 10 versus teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. They played a high-scoring OT game in the West Coast Conference Tournament last year but 7 of the last 9 regular season meetings have finished with 150 or less. This game stays Under! **WCC TOY** |
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02-07-24 | USC v. California UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-83 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
These teams went over when they played on January 3rd. Both have playing lower-scoring games since then though and both cranked up the defensive intensity in winning their last game. The Trojans held Oregon State to only 54 points. The Golden Bears kept Arizona State to 66. The Bears are now 5-3 to the under since facing USC, a perfect 3-0 under record their last 3. The Trojans are 5-2 to the under their last 7 games. Games at USC have truly been high-scoring. Not so here in Berkeley. The Trojans last visit here produced only 117 points! The Bears are 7-1 to the under their last 8 against losing teams, after at least 15 games. This game goes under! |
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02-05-24 | Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 146 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Kansas comes in hot and defense has been a big part of the reason. The Jayhawks held Houston to 65 points last game. Before that, they limited Oklahoma State to only 56. They will face a Kansas State team which has scored 53 or less in 2 of its last 3 games. This season, Kansas State has been going over the total against losing teams and staying under the total against winning teams. The Wildcats are 11-2 to the under against teams with a winning record. Off a game Saturday, I will point out that Kansas is 3-0 to the under when playing with 0 or 1 day's rest in between games. The Jayhawks are 15-8 to the under in that situation their last 23. K-State is 7-3 to the under when the total was in the 140s and 4-1 to the under at home when the total was 140 to 144.5. This game stays under! **BIG 12 TOY** |
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02-04-24 | Davidson v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 136.5 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
Last year's game had a low total and the final score snuck over it. This is another low total and the final score will again finish to the over. Davidson games average 139.6 points. Loyola-Chicago games average 140.8. This total is lower than either of those numbers. Digging deeper reveals that Davidson road games are higher-scoring. The Wildcats are therefore 5-1 to the over on the road. Those true road games are averaging 150. Loyola-Chicago is 11-2 to the over its last 13 home games when the total was in between 135 and 139.5 points. The Ramblers are also 4-1 to the over last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Go with the Over! |
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02-03-24 | Syracuse v. Wake Forest UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-99 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Orange are off a 77-72 loss to Pittsburgh. It was their 5th loss in ACC play. After their previous four ACC losses, they've cranked up their defense leading to the under going a perfect 4-0 the next game. Off a loss to Virginia, they beat Cornell 80-71. That game had a total of 165. Off a loss to Duke, they beat BC 69-59. Off a loss to UNC, they beat Pitt 69-58. Off a loss to Florida State, they beat NC State 77-65. Those four games didn't just go under, they EASILY went under! We know the Orange crank up the defense off an ACC loss but it should also be understood that Wake Forest plays great defense at home. Visiting games are averaging only 64.1 points a game here, hitting 40.9% of their field goals. Four of the last 5 meetings at Wake have gone under. Go with the Under! |
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02-02-24 | Toledo v. Akron UNDER 147.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
These are both good teams. They've been getting it done in different ways. Toledo has been winning by outscoring opponents. Akron has been winning by dominating teams with its smothering defense. It may be a different story for the rematch at Toledo but with this game being played at Arkon, the Zips will effectively dictate the tempo and slow down the Rockets to the level of their liking. There are a lot of stats which point to this play staying below the total. Here are some of those: Akron is 6-3 to the under in conference play. The Zips are also 5-2 to the under in their home games. None of the Zips' last 10 opponents have scored more than 76 points. The last team that they faced scored only 46. Five of their last 6 games have gone under. The Rockets are 5-2 to the under off a conference win and 2-0 to the under when playing a road game with a total of 145 to 149.5. The number is high and this game will go Under. |
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01-29-24 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Tex A&M Commerce OVER 140 | Top | 69-54 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The Islanders scored 79 points last game. They have scored 73 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games, 80 or more in 3 of those. The Lions are off an 87-84 loss. That game went to Overtime. So the score was a bit misleading. The scoring really picked up in the 2nd half and OT of that game though and will carry over into this game. The most recent meeting between these teams was here at the end of last regular season. The score was 93-88. Once again, the game went to Overtime. There were still 156 points scored in regulation though. Last season's first meeting finished with 164. Both those games had totals in the 140s, the final scores easily finishing to the over. The Islanders are 6-3 to the over their last 9 road games with a total of 140 to 144.5. The Lions are 3-0 to the over during same period, at home with a total in same range. This game goes OVER! |
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01-27-24 | Yale v. Harvard UNDER 142.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Yale is 10-6 to the over this season. Harvard is 9-6 to the over. Those records are keeping this total in the 140s. Both schools are off a low-scoring game though. The Bulldogs just beat Dartmouth 76-51. The Crimson just won at Penn by a 70-61 score. 127 and 131 and we've got a total in the 140s. The last 4 times that these rivals have faced each other the scores were 58-55, 62-59, 58-54 and 68-57. All went under. All finished with 125 or less. Harvard is 7-2-1 to the under last 10 off a conference win. Yale is 6-2 to the under last eight when playing on the road and the total was in the 140 to 144.5 range. This game goes under! |
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01-23-24 | Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 133.5 | Top | 90-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Air Force has failed to score 70 points in any of its last 5 games. The Falcons will have trouble scoring against an angry UNLV team. The Rebels are 13-8 to the under the past 21 times that they were off a Mountain West Conf. loss. If they were at home, they might score more but doing so on the road will be difficult. The Falcons are 20-11 to the under their last 31 on the road. Last year's regular season meeting finished with only 107 points. The last 3 regular season meetings have all finished with 131 or less. This one does the same! |
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01-17-24 | Auburn v. Vanderbilt OVER 148.5 | Top | 80-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Both these teams have seen more unders than overs. That's brought the total down for us today. It's now too low. Auburn averages more than 84 points a game, more than 82 a game on the road. The Tigers can and will score anywhere. They put up 93 points last game. The Commodores know that they need to score, if they want to avoid embarrassment. Their last home game was a 78-75 loss to Alabama. That stayed under the total but that was a much higher number. These teams will meet again at the end of January. Last year's first meeting finished with 174 points. This one will get over the 150 mark. |
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01-06-24 | Denver v. Northern Colorado UNDER 167.5 | Top | 82-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm aware of the O|U stats. Both teams have gone over at an alarming rate. Both this season and for the past few seasons. Obviously, I'm not the only one that sees this. With every passing over, the numbers keep going up and up. Now we get a total approaching 170. That's too high. Even for these teams. For the record, its by far the highest total that either team has seen all year. Games on this floor are averaging 149.6 points this season. They may get a few more than that this game but they won't get enough to finish over the inflated total. Go with the Under! ***TOM*** |
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01-03-24 | Xavier v. Villanova OVER 140.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Both teams entered the Christmas break streaking to the under. The long layoff and the start of Big East Conference play will change things up. Last year's totals were set at 145.5 and 147.5. Tonight's number isn't as high meaning we don't need to score as many. Xavier games are averaging 145 points. The Musketeers are 9-4 to the over the past 13 times they were off a game where they allowed 60 or fewer points. Over the same period, they are 2-0 to the over when playing with 7 or more day's rest. The Wildcats scored 84 last game but the total snuck under because Depaul couldn't score. Xavier will be more competitive. Last year's game at Villanova sailed over the total. The final score was 88-80. This game will also go Over! ***BIG EAST TOM*** |
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01-02-24 | UAB v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 157.5 | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This number is too high! Both teams have gone over lately so that has given us a large number. Conference play is different though. This is the first AAC game of the season for both and there will be some added defensive intensity. UAB plays lower-scoring games on the road than it does at home. The opposite is true of UTSA. The Roadrunners play lower-scoring games at home. Games here average 155 but UAB road games average just 145.4. Six of the past 9 meetings here in San Antonio have gone to the under. Give me the Under! ***AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH*** |
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12-31-23 | Arizona State v. California UNDER 149.5 | Top | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This total is too high. Arizona State saw its last game go over by half a point. A tough loss for anyone who bet the under. The Sun Devils scored only 49 and 56 points in their last two games before the Stanford win. The Golden Bears got lit up by Arizona last game. The Sun Devils aren't the Wildcats though. Off that loss, Cal will look to bounce back with a much better defensive display. The last meeting was also a tough loss for anyone who bet the under. It finished with 132 points, a game that had a total of 128.5. That went to Overtime though. Only 114 points were scored in regulation. None of the last 5 meetings have gone over 140. Even off the Stanford result, the Sun Devils are 4-1 to the under as underdogs. They are also 13-5 to the under their last 18 against sub-500 competition. Go with the Under. ***PAC 12 TOY*** |
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12-29-23 | Wright State v. Green Bay OVER 147 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Wright State is a top team in the Horizon League. The Raiders play very fast and have a lot of scoring talent. They are averaging more than 84 points a game. Last 4 games, they scored 81, 84, 92 and 101. Though they don't score the same way that Wright State does, the Phoenix scored 79 points last game. They average 68.8 points at home. Because Wright State pushes the pace, opposing teams tend to score a lot. The Raiders are allowing 82.5 ppg on the road. All their road games have gone over. The Raiders have scored 77, 77, 99 and 79 in the past 4 meetings, an average of 83. They will reach the 80 mark again this afternoon and the Phoenix will contribute the rest. ***HORIZON LEAGUE TOM*** |
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12-24-23 | Nevada v. Georgia Tech UNDER 141.5 | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams went over Friday, when playing 2 games in 2 days. They had yesterday off and defense will now be the order of the day. Both teams hold opponents below 40% field goal shooting. Nevada is 4-2 to the under last 6 tries with a total in the 140 to 149.5 range, 6-4 to the under when favored. G-Tech is 5-2 to the under when listed as an underdog, also 5-2 with a total in the 140s. The under will move to 8-3 the last 11 time that the Yellow Jackets played on a neutral court. **TOTAL DOMINATOR** |
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12-20-23 | Northern Arizona v. San Francisco OVER 136 | Top | 51-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Both the Dons and the Lumberjacks have been staying under the total in the majority of their games this season. All those unders have resulted in a very low O|U total for tonight's game. Too low! The last time these teams played, the total was set at 151. After struggling to score on the road last game, San Francisco will emphasize scoring in this game. The only previous game where they scored 60 or less saw their next game go over with 147. They've averaged 87 points in staying perfect on their home floor. Games here average 147 points. Northern Arizona has scored 76 or more in 4 straight games but the Lumberjacks have also allowed 74 or more in 3 straight. This game goes over the low total! ***TOTAL OF WEEK*** |
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12-15-23 | CS Bakersfield v. Fresno State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Fresno State and CS Bakersfield also faced each other last December. That game produced only 104 points, 54 in the first half and 50 in the second. CS BakersField will again struggle to score. The Roadrunners already had a game where they scored 40 points. They've scored 65 or less 4 times. Fresno State allowed only 56 points last game. The Bulldogs have also scored 65 or less in 3 of their last 5. The Roadrunners are 3-0 to the under against Mountain West opponents the last few seasons. This will make 4-0. ***DEC CBB TOM*** |
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12-05-23 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State OVER 131 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I know this is a Big Ten game between two teams typically known for defense but this total is too low. The Badgers average 74 points a game. The Spartans average 74.9. The Spartans have scored at least 65 points in all 7 of their games. The Badgers have scored at least 65 in 7 of their 8 games. Though the one that they didn't reach 65 in came on the road, the Badgers are 15-8-1 to the over in road games past 2 seasons, 5-3 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points. Both teams reached the 65 mark in the last meetings, a 69-65 win for the Spartans in January. Both teams will hit at least 65 again, the winning team exceeding that number. That will brings the final score over the total and the over to 6-3 the last 9 times that the Spartans played with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games. ***Big Ten TOY*** |
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12-01-23 | Iona v. Fairfield UNDER 147 | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Stags have a reputation for defense. Their last 3 meetings with Iona have all finished with 144 or less. Last game finished with 131. The Gaels are 4-1 to the under last 5 tries, when playing a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5. Iona opened up MAAC Conference play with a 68-64 loss against Marist. They've failed to reach 70 in either of their road games. Fairfield is 8-4 to the under last 12 in December. Defense will rule the day! ***MAAC TOY*** |
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11-30-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Fordham UNDER 159 | Top | 52-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a very high total considering that the Rams are a good defensive team. They allow 67.5 points a game and a 41% field goal percentage. They are 15-7 to the under the past 22 tries when the total ranges from 150 to 159.5. The Knights are not very good defensively, the reason for such a high total. The Knights can play defense though. We saw that last March. Remember, this team shocked the world and held Purdue to 58 points in the NCAA Tournament last year. Look for the under to more to 7-3 last 10 times that Fordham scored 80 or more in the previous game. ***CBB TOW*** |
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11-20-23 | Bradley v. Tulane UNDER 147 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Bradley has snuck over last 2 games but both games finished with 144 or less. The Braves lost their leading scorer from last year. They gave up 71 in their first game but have allowed 70 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games, each of their last 2. They are 21-7 to the under, last 28 games with a total with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games. Tulane allowed only 57 points last game. Tulane is 6-1 to the under last 7 neutral site games when total was between 145.5 and 149. This game goes under! ***Tournament Total Of The Month*** |
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11-08-23 | Troy State v. Ohio OVER 145 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Both teams brought back quality scorers. Troy also lost a number of top defenders. Troy scored 92 points in its opening game but the defense wasn't tested against a weak opponent. Ohio will put up significantly more. The Bobcats averaged 83.5 points per home game last season. Over is 6-1 the last 7 that Ohio was at home and total was between 145 and 149.5. Over will improve to 5-1 last 6 times that Troy faced a MAC opponent. **Nov TOM |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State OVER 131 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 124 h 54 m | Show |
The last 12 San Diego State games have all stayed Under the total. But I’m going to say it’s “lucky #13” for Over bettors Saturday night against Florida Atlantic in the first of two national semifinals in the Final Four. Incredibly, going back to the second half of the second round game vs. Furman, San Diego State opponents have combined to miss 45 of their last 51 3PA. The Aztecs are certainly very sound defensively, but there’s no way opponents should be missing at that kind of rate over such a sustained period. Florida Atlantic rediscovered the three-point shot against Kansas State in the Elite 8, making 9 of 23 attempts. That’s not lights out shooting by any means, but it’s more made threes in one game than the last two SDSU opponents have made. I truly believe that FAU is going to do a better job here than previous SDSU opponents. FAU averages 78 points/game. Let’s also not forget San Diego State topped 70 in the second round and Sweet 16. In the end, this boils down to my belief San Diego State can’t continue getting away with their opponents shooting so poorly from three. That may sound like an an endorsement of the Owls to cash, but I also expect San Diego State to improve offensively from the Creighton game (where they shot 38% overall, were 3 of 13 from three and attempted only six free throws). 10* |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Prior to going Over in its 83-71 Sweet 16 victory over Xavier, the Texas Longhorns had gone Under in seven consecutive games. I think we’ll see a “return to form” here in the Elite 8 vs. Miami. The Hurricanes stunned everybody by hanging 89 points on top seed Houston in the Sweet 16. That was the Canes’ second straight Tournament game, scoring more than 80 points. There’s no denying this is a talented offensive team, but I can’t shake the fact they probably should have lost to Drake and only scored 63 in that first round game. I don’t think we’ll see Miami shoot as well here against a Texas team that is Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I know I said the same thing about Houston’s defense, but the Cougars simply played poorly. Texas has shot better than 50% in each Tourney game thus far and was 7 of 12 from three vs. Xavier. That came on the heels of going 1 of 13 against Penn State. The Longhorns won’t be shooting as well here as they did in the last game. Texas might be without Dylan Disu. They managed without him against Xavier, but his absence would be significant. Both teams are set to cool off at the offensive end. 10* |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga UNDER 154.5 | Top | 82-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Fireworks are expected here between UConn and Gonzaga, which some may view as a “de facto National Title Game” the way this bracket has broken. One could certainly make an argument that these are the two best teams still standing. UConn has shot the lights out the last two games (54% and 57%) and it’s not like Gonzaga is known for its defense. Yet we just saw Gonzaga’s last opponent fail to make a basket for an 11 minute stretch in the second half. Not saying that will happen again here (it won’t) but UConn is due to cool off offensively. On the flip side, Gonzaga has been down double digits each of the last two games. I don’t think Drew Timme has the kind of game he had vs. UCLA. Second chance points were also huge for the Zags vs. the Bruins. They are certainly not going to dominate the glass that same way vs. UConn, a team with tremendous size. The Huskies have allowed just 63, 55 and 65 points in their three tournament wins. The Under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. 10* |
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03-24-23 | Princeton v. Creighton UNDER 140.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed. Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points. Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10* |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State. The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette). Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc! Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17). Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10* |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 126.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well. I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom. The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points. Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here. UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10* |
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03-12-23 | Dayton v. VCU UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Don’t go expecting many points in this Atlantic 10 Tournament Final. It’s all on the line this afternoon for both Virginia Commonwealth (the A-10 regular season champion) and Dayton (the preseason favorite). Neither team has done enough to earn an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. So both need to win here. VCU is 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. Dayton is a not-too-shabby 56th. Dayton also plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (352nd out of 363 teams). Their games only average 62.6 possessions. VCU isn’t too far ahead of that at 68.2. We’ve seen some lights out shooting from both teams in this tournament, but my view is that it will halt Sunday. Dayton shot 60% against Fordham yesterday and will regress hard from that number here. VCU has been scoring considerably more than its season average the last seven games and is also due for some offensive regression. The teams split the two regular season meetings, each winning on the road. Those games saw 120 and 125 total points scored. 10* |
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03-11-23 | Duke v. Virginia UNDER 123.5 | Top | 59-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I like the Under in tonight’s ACC Tournament Final. Both Duke and Virginia are going to make the NCAA Tournament irregardless of this outcome. So it’s basically just pride (and an ACC Championship!) on the line.
Expect Duke to be motivated, however. The Blue Devils were wronged in the previous meeting with Virginia as they should have won outright in regulation. But a foul call against Virginia was overtuned, a decision the ACC later admitted the officials got wrong.
Even with overtime, the teams still only combined for 131 total points. (Virginia won 69-62 as 6.5-point favorite).
Virginia was an incredibly efficient 24 of 40 on two-point field goal attempts in that game. I do not see that happening again tonight. Virginia also has a top 10 scoring defense in the country, so Duke’s offense should be held in check as well. 10* |
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03-10-23 | Mississippi State v. Alabama OVER 137 | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
Engulfed in controversy, top seed Alabama begins its SEC Tournament journey on Friday, facing a Mississippi State team that had to go to overtime yesterday to get by Florida.
It’s not always the case, but generally I like to look at the Under the game after a team went to overtime. Sometimes the betting public just looks at the final score and is unaware the game even went to OT. In the case of Miss State, the score was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation yesterday. That would have been an easy Under (total closed 131) if not for the extra five minutes of basketball.
Miss State has now gone Over in five straight, so this O/U line has been bet up. I don’t agree with that move at all.
Alabama is #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Miss State is #6!
The Crimson Tide like to play fast (#2 in adjusted tempo), but Miss State goes very slow (#333 in adj tempo). If the Bulldogs are able to slow this game down, then it should be an easy Under. The last time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points and 8 for 43 shooting from three. (Bama won 66-63). 10* |
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03-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
The ACC was not particularly strong this season, so you can imagine the quality of teams we’re getting in the first round of the conference tournament. Georgia Tech finished 14-17 SU but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in eight straight games. Florida State is 9-22 SU and was pretty woeful down the stretch. The Seminoles are 2-9 SU and ATS L11 games. While I might lean to Ga Tech here, the Under is the better play. The Yellow Jackets’ last five DI games have all gone Over, thanks to them shooting far better than normal. They’ve averaged 79.8 points on 47.5% shooting. For the season, this team shoots below 40% away from home while averaging 65.9 points/game. FSU is no offensive juggernaut either. Expect them to struggle mightily at the offensive end as GT allows opponents to make just 29.9% of 3PA. The Under is 39-19-1 in the Seminoles’ previous 59 neutral site games. This number is far too high. 10* |
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02-17-23 | Abilene Christian v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total. Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0 As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively. After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10* |
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02-16-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 58-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves.
Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range.
Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight.
I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit. Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.
Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.
New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.
Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10* |
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02-01-23 | New Mexico v. Utah State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9.
But I like the Under here. The number is just too high.
Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.
Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10* |
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01-28-23 | Auburn v. West Virginia UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
Auburn just had a five-game win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing to Texas A&M 79-63 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Now they hit the road and head into unfamiliar territory as part of this SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge.
While West Virginia is having a “down” year, Morgantown is still not an easy place to win at, if you are the road team. WVU also carries a lot of respect here. This will be the third straight home game where they go off as the favorite against a Top 25 opponent. They beat TCU here, but lost to Texas.
Auburn isn’t as good as either TCU or Texas, nor is the SEC as good as the Big 12.
Furthermore, WVU just clobbered Texas Tech on the road earlier this week, winning 76-61 as a 3.5 point dog. I’ll take that as a sign Bob Huggins' team is starting to “figure things out.” Yet, I don’t want to lay points against an Auburn team coming off a bad loss. So let’s play the Under instead. It’s cashed in three straight WVU games and Auburn is shooting under 30% for the year from three. But the Tigers can defend. They are holding teams below 39% overall from the field. 8* |
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01-26-23 | Arizona State v. Washington UNDER 145.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
A late night affair in the Pac 12 sees two teams on four-game Over streaks facing off as Washington hosts Arizona State.
Arizona State got off to a great start to the year, but no one really believed in them and that lack of belief is starting to bear out. The Sun Devils have lost two in a row, albeit to UCLA and USC.
Meanwhile, after losing five in a row, Washington was able to win three straight, all against bottom teams in the Pac 12. But then the Huskies lost badly on Saturday, 86-61 at Utah.
ASU may not be an elite team overall, but they are top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. I think this number is too high due to Washington getting blitzed in its last game, something that won’t happen here at home. Play the Under. 8* |
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01-25-23 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 144 | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.
Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.
This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.
Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under. A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10* |
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01-21-23 | Gonzaga v. Pacific OVER 157.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I cashed the Under in Gonzaga’s last game, which they LOST 68-67 at home to Loyola Marymount. That winner cleared by more than 20 points as the Zags uncharacteristically shot poorly (just 28.6% from three) and saw their 75-game home win streak come to an end.
After being held to nearly 20 points below their season-long scoring average, which is still #2 in the nation, Gonzaga should come out firing Saturday night at Pacific, a WCC opponent that they’ve frequently torched in the past. In four of the previous five meetings, as well as 7 of the last 10, the Zags have topped 80 against the Tigers.
Now it takes “two to tango,” so Pacific is going to need to put up some points here as well. Certainly a lot more than the 57 they scored in a loss at San Francisco Thursday night. But that looks to be an outlier effort from the Tigers, who had scored 78 or more in each of the previous four games, all of which went Over the total. The Over is also 21-9 in the L30 Pacific home games. 10* |
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01-19-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Gonzaga UNDER 159 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Gonzaga can certainly score at will as we saw on Saturday when they dropped 115 points on poor Portland and won by 40. That was the third time in the last month the Zags hit the century mark and fourth if you include a non-board game vs. Eastern Oregon. They are #1 in the country, averaging 86.9 PPG.
But, it was just last Thursday where we saw the Under hit in a game between Gonzaga and BYU. I think that tonight Loyola Marymount can keep Gonzaga’s scoring in relative check.
Now LMU scored 98 themselves in a win over San Diego last Saturday. Certainly, points are to be expected here. But this number is high. In fact it’s the largest O/U for any LMU game so far this season.
With the opponent and the Over being 6-0 in Lions’ road games, I understand there may be some trepidation in playing this Under. But be aware that not only did Gonzaga go Under vs. BYU, but also the two games before as well. None of the three saw more than 157 total pts scored. The game vs. San Diego was also LMU’s highest scoring of the season so far. There’s value here in the Under. 10* |
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01-09-23 | Oral Roberts v. New Mexico UNDER 161.5 | Top | 75-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
With the College Football National Championship front and center, there’s not much College Basketball on tonight’s docket. But this is a game worth paying attention to.
New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country, but has now dropped two in a row including an 84-77 decision here at home to UNLV Saturday night. I thought that result was undeserved and the Lobos were the better team. Nevertheless, they come into Monday looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat as favorites.
Oral Roberts has won 10 straight, but three of the last five victories have been by exactly three points.
I’m looking at the total here as we’ve got a very high number. Both teams are Top 32 in tempo and ORU is Top 20 in offensive efficiency. The last six New Mexico games have all gone Over the total. Yet so much has to “go right” to get Over a number this large. Note that NONE of those L6 NM games would have gone Over this number (though the last one would have if this line trickles down any further). Three of the last four games involving Oral Roberts saw 145 or less total points scored. I’m on the Under. |
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01-03-23 | Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 138.5 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Two 12-1 teams meet Tuesday in Big XII action as Texas hosts Kansas State. While these teams may have the same won-loss record, they are not viewed as equals. Texas is #6 at KenPom while Kansas State is #45. So I’m not surprised that the Longhorns opened as a double digit favorite.
The Chris Beard situation makes Texas a tricky team to handicap right now, but I still expect them to continue to play excellent defense. Their last five games have all gone Over, but there was an overtime game mixed in there (1st game w/o Beard) and the Longhorns scored 97 and 100 themselves in two others.
Kansas State is decent enough defensively (38th in efficiency) to keep the Texas offensive attack in check.
But worrisome for the Wildcats is the fact they were down 11 to West Virginia at halftime of their last game. They rallied for an overtime win, 82-76, but that was at home. At the end of regulation, the score of that Kansas State-West Virginia game was 66-66. I really think we’ve got an inflated total on our hands here and will play the Under. 10* |
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12-07-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 138 | Top | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.
Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.
I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.
Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game. Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 8* |
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12-04-22 | Oregon v. UCLA UNDER 143.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game between Oregon and UCLA on Sunday, but I say “not so fast.” Yes, the Ducks are 16-5 Over L21 road games and 30-14 Over L44 conference games. And, yes, the Bruins have gone Over in five straight. But I believe this number to be too high.
Oregon’s highest scoring game of the year was a 74-70 loss to Michigan State. Their games are averaging 133.1 points/game so far, which is well below this total.
Now UCLA averages 82.6 points/game. But they are also only giving up 57.6 points/game at home.
Oregon is the tallest team in the country and I expect that size to give UCLA problems at the offensive end. The Ducks are also playing pretty slow this season (237th in adjusted tempo) while UCLA is also outside the top 100 in that regard. Can’t imagine the Bruins will shoot as well here as they did in the last game vs. Stanford where they made their first eight shot attempts and ended up hitting almost 60% from the floor. Play the Under. 10* |
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12-02-22 | Pittsburgh v. NC State OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
I’m going to call for a lot of points here as Pittsburgh and NC State open up the ACC portion of their schedules. Take the Over.
Pitt has won four in a row - by an average of 21.5 points/game. Now beating Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary isn’t going to cause anyone to go running through the streets. But the Panthers did just hang 87 points on a Northwestern team that had previously been playing good defense. The total for that game was 128.5. That should tell you all you need to know about how Pitt performed offensively in that one.
North Carolina State is allowing opponents to hit 34.3% from three-point range. That is likely to be a problem for them against a Pitt team that is not only attempting 26 threes per game. Over the last five games, Pitt is shooting 38% from deep.
But where Pitt could run into some trouble here is turnovers. They are turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. NC State turns teams over on 22.3% of possessions. The Wolfpack are top 35 in the country in both offensive efficiency and tempo. So they can score. Six of their games this season have gone Over. Pitt is 5-2 Over last 7. 10* |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University v. Washington UNDER 141.5 | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
There are only 20 teams still unbeaten in College Basketball. Seattle U is one of them! The RedHawks are 5-0 straight up and have covered the spread in all three lined games. Their last game was an 89-53 beatdown of Pacific Lutheran. Seattle has won twice out on the road, against UC San Diego and Portland.
But Washington is obviously the best team Seattle has faced yet. The Huskies are 5-1, their only loss coming to Cal Baptist. Without a shadow of a doubt, the team’s most impressive performance to date came last Thursday when they stunned St. Mary’s 68-64 as 10 point underdogs.
It is telling though that UW is only a small favorite at home. They are not a great offensive team (153rd in efficiency per KenPom) and largely rely on a defense that plays a 2-3 zone, forcing the opposition into long possessions. Teams are shooting just 39.1% against the Huskies, 25.9% from three, and averaging 63.3 points/game.
Seattle has never beaten Washington in 14 previous tries. They were close last year, losing by only eight. This is a game the RedHawks badly want to win. With such importance placed on this one, I expect a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions than normal. The last two times these teams have played, there were only 120 and 114 points scored. Those games stayed Under by 22 and 21 points respectively. There’s value with this number now north of 140 points. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Northern Kentucky v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 133.5 | Top | 61-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night. Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one. Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play. NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting. FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's OVER 158 | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.
Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.
Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out.
St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Ole Miss OVER 139 | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday.
Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.
There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.
Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them. Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Oral Roberts v. Houston UNDER 144.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).
In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.
The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.
Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo. This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Monmouth v. Seton Hall UNDER 135.5 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year.
The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.
Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored. Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10* |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
We’re also down to the “Final Four” in the NIT this week as tonight the two semi finals take place, followed by the Final on Thursday. St. Bonaventure has pulled off three consecutive upsets to get to this point. The Bonnies have beaten Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia, a list of victories made all the more impressive by the fact they all came on the road. Over their last five games, the Bonnies have held opponents to an average of 61.5 points. Xavier’s three NIT wins were all at home and two of them were by a total of six points. Of course, St. Bonaventure’s last two wins have been by a combined three points. The winner here is probably going to be an underdog to the winner of Washington State-Texas A&M. This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Worth talking about is how St. Bonaventure only averages 62.7 points per game, away from home, for the year. They were above that against Colorado and Oklahoma, but only scored 52 vs. Virginia in what was a very low-scoring contest. The Bonnies are 4-0 Under the last four times they’ve been favored. Xavier is on a 10-4-1 Under run its last 15 neutral site games as an underdog. Play the Under. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas OVER 147 | Top | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Kansas is the only 1-seed still standing in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll take on a 10-seed, Miami, in the Elite 8. It’s seemingly a favorable matchup for the Jayhawks, but I’m not confident in laying the points. I played against Kansas in the Sweet 16, making my Providence my 10* Game of the Month. The Jayhawks shot only 39.3 percent from the floor, but relied on their defense, holding the Friars to 33.8 percent for a 66-61 win. The underdog did cover and that’s all I was looking for. Expect the shooting to improve - from both Kansas and the opponent - today. Miami is a much bigger offensive threat than anyone that the Jayhawks have faced so far in this tournament. The Hurricanes are in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency, just like Kansas, nationally. The ‘Canes also relied on outstanding three-point defense in the Sweet 16. They held Iowa State, a poor offensive team to begin with, to 4 of 23. Probably can’t count on doing that to Kansas. Kansas is coming off its second lowest-scoring game since January. So they are due for a bounce back offensively. Miami is 7-3 Over its last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the Over here. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Duke was involved in the lone Sweet 16 game to go Over the total, a 78-73 win over a Texas Tech that rated #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Coach K’s career is still alive and kicking as his Blue Devils put up an impressive 49 points in the second half of that game. Save for St. Peter’s winning last night, the biggest shocker from the Sweet 16 was Arkansas beating Gonzaga. The Razorbacks went out and beat the #1 team in the country by a score of 74-68 despite being 9.5 point underdogs. The Hogs have now stayed Under in two straight games after their previous seven all went Over. Their second round game was very low-scoring (beat NMSU 53-48) and featured poor shooting from both teams. Arkansas is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 30.5% of its attempts for the year. We know Duke can score and eight of the Blue Devils’ last nine games have gone Over. But can they continue this red-hot shooting we’ve seen from them in this tournament? All three games have seen Coach K’s team make at least 51% of their field goal attempts. Arkansas holds teams to around 40%. Duke shot 70% percent from the field against Texas Tech in the second half and made its last eight shots. No way that carries over to tonight. There were only 62 points scored in the first half of that game. Arkansas is shooting only 39.4% overall its last five games and none of those contests have seen more than 146 points scored. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
For the second year in a row, we’ve got ourselves a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Last year was Oral Roberts. This year’s “Cinderella” is St. Peter’s, a team that finished the regular season second in the MAAC (behind Iona). Prior to last year, there had been just one 15-seed ever to make it to a regional semifinal. That was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. The Peacocks have won and covered nine in a row. Their next test is a big one as they face Purdue on Friday. The third-seeded Boilermakers own wins over Yale and Texas so far. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country, ranking second in the country in efficiency and averaging 79.8 points per game. St. Peter’s is pretty good defensively, but they will have their chances offensively in this game as well. Purdue owns the second lowest defensive efficiency rating of the Sweet 16. For those reasons, I am on the Over in this one. St. Peter’s first two games went Over. The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog. Purdue games average 148.3 points. This is a low total for them. The last game was lower, but they were up against a Texas team that was among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense. That game went Over as the Boilermakers scored 81. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga OVER 154.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 28 m | Show |
The first Sweet 16 game - which is between Arkansas and Gonzaga - should be a high scoring affair. These teams are a combined 0-4 ATS in this Tournament, though I’m sure neither cares about it. Gonzaga has actually had to come from behind to defeat both Georgia State and Memphis. Arkansas was in control most of the time vs. Vermont and New Mexico State, but won by a combined nine points. The last Arkansas game saw some truly woeful shooting - from both teams. The Razorbacks and NMSU combined to make only nine threes and shot roughly 30% for the game. With Gonzaga involved here, you know there’s going to be a sizable increase in offensive productivity. The Zags lead the country in scoring at 87.8 points per game. They’ve scored 93 and 82 in the two tournament wins thus far. Routinely, this team will shoot better than 50 percent from the floor. Arkansas had seen seven straight games go Over the total before facing New Mexico State. During that run, they scored 74 or more points six times. With the underdog Razorbacks due for an uptick an offense (after such a poor shooting night vs. NMSU) and favored Gonzaga being its usual self, expect this game to go Over the total. |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama OVER 141.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
So this is a second round matchup in the “The Basketball Classic.” USC Upstate won its first round game in upset fashion, defeating Appalachian State on the road, as a 10.5 point underdog. The final score was 80-74. South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 70-68, but could not cover the nine-point spread. South Alabama has some pretty solid defensive numbers, but I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. The Jaguars are overdue for a solid showing at the offensive end. After all, they do average 75.4 points at home. USC Upstate is not any kind of defensive force. But the underdog Spartans have scored 70 or more in five of their last six games, including each of the last four. It’s going to take plenty of points to outlast them. South Alabama ranks 140th in defensive efficiency, USC Upstate ranks 303rd. USC Upstate also likes to play pretty fast, which means there will be plenty of possessions in this game. They are also 12-4 Over on the road this year as well as 16-5 Over as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue Monday. |
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03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona OVER 143 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Two teams coming off blowout wins meet in the second round with top seed Arizona facing off with 9-seed TCU. Of the two, TCU actually won by a larger margin. The Horned Frogs impressively defeated Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5 point underdog. Arizona didn’t even cover, despite winning by 17, as they were 21.5 point favorites over Wright State, who was in the “First Four.” The last six TCU games have all stayed Under the total. However, here they are up against an Arizona team that is not only 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games, but is also third in the country in scoring at 84.6 points per game. TCU will not hold Arizona to 28.8% shooting like it did to Seton Hall. The Wildcats are shooting 53.5% over their most recent five games. But the top seed probably can’t count on holding the underdog Horned Frogs to 34.8% like it did to Wright State on Friday. The Over has hit each of the previous six times Arizona has been off an ATS loss (which they are here). TCU is 5-0 Over the previous five times it has been off a game in which it allowed fewer than 50 points. Go with the Over in the final second round matchup of the weekend. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee OVER 135.5 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Michigan won by double digits on Thursday, but it was by no means easy against Colorado State. The Wolverines got off to a poor start and trailed in the first half by as many as 12 points. But a stunning turnaround after halftime resulted in a 75-63 win for the Maize and Blue. The Wolverines probably can’t count on their second round opponent shooting 35.4% from the field. That’s what Colorado State did and it was even worse in the second half when the Rams scored just 27 points. Tennessee shot 60% and scored 88 points in its first round matchup with Longwood. Now Michigan won’t be as overmatched as Longwood was, but the Wolverines usually aren’t that great defensively either. They are in fact just 77th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers streak of holding teams under 40% shooting probably comes to an end here, however. Nine of their last ten opponents have shot 39.6% or less. Michigan shoots well, is 19th in offensive efficiency, and will make more threes here than they did in the first round game (4). The Over has cashed the previous four times that Michigan has been an underdog. Make it five straight. |
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03-18-22 | Jacksonville State v. Auburn OVER 137.5 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Second seeded Auburn looks to avoid the same fate that befell its SEC brethren Kentucky (a fellow 2-seed) on Friday. The Tigers should certainly avoid the upset against Jacksonville State here as the Gamecocks did not even win their Conference Tournament! Instead, they got the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth because they were regular season champs and the conference tourney champs (Bellarmine) were ineligible for the Big Dance! But I don’t think I can trust Auburn minus all these points here. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six games, and despite bagging their first regular season SEC title since 1999, they were “one and done” in the conference tourney, losing to a Texas A&M team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. So let’s look at the total. Auburn averages 78.7 points per game and should have no problems getting to the basket in this matchup. Jacksonville State shoots 47.2% overall as a team and made 40% of its threes in conference play. Am I confident they’ll hit those percentages today? Not really. But they’ll score enough! Auburn is 9-2 Over its last 11 neutral court games where the total is 135 to 139.5. That’s the way I think this one is headed. |
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03-17-22 | Creighton v. San Diego State UNDER 120 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
A low total here, but rightly so. San Diego State has the second most efficient defense in the country and allows 57.7 points per game. Not to be outdone, their opponents for Thursday, Creighton, give up only 65.9 points per game. Creighton made a run all the way to the Big East Tournament Final, solidifying its place in the field of 68. Along the way, they held top seed Providence to only 58 points. The Bluejays may have lost the final, but that was a 54-48 game vs. Villanova, precisely the kind of score we’re looking for today. San Diego State’s last three games have seen 99, 121 and 105 total points scored. All three went Under. The Aztecs don’t score a ton. We’re talking about only a 61.3 point average when playing away from home. The Under hit in all five SDSU games on a neutral court during the regular season. Two teams holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year should lead to a “rock fight.” Take the Under |
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03-16-22 | Bryant v. Wright State OVER 154.5 | Top | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
Neither of these two 16-seeds in the First Four are very good defensively. In fact, in terms of points allowed per possession, they are two of the three worst in the tournament. Throw in the fact that one of them (Bryant) plays at the seventh fastest tempo in the country and you’ve got the recipe for an Over. Wright State has three players averaging at least 14.3 points per game - Holden, Basile and Calvin. As a team, the Raiders put up 75.5 points per game. Six of their last eight games have gone Over, including both wins in the Horizon League Tournament. Bryant has the nation’s top scorer, Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game. As a team, the Bulldogs put up 77.9. They’ve won 16 of 17 overall and are a hot team. The problem for Bryant is that when they leave home, they give up an average of 79.2 points. They allowed 111 at Houston! In the eight games where they were a ‘dog, the Bulldogs allowed 81.3 points per game. Seven of the last eight games where Wright State was up against a team that came in averaging at least 77 points, the game went Over. Batten down the hatches for a high-scoring game Wednesday. |
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03-15-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Southern UNDER 136.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
So our first 16 vs 16 seed in the “First Four” pits Texas Southern, tournament champions from the SWAC, against Texas A&M-CC, tournament champions of the Southland. I expect this to be a pretty low-scoring game. Start with the neutral court setting. Texas A&M-CC played eight such games during the regular season and those averaged 138 total PPG, well below what the Islanders averaged home or away. All three Southland Tourney games stayed Under. Texas Southern played just three neutral court games this season, all in the SWAC Tourney, and two of those stayed Under. The one that didn’t was the Final, an 87-62 win over Alcorn State where the Tigers shot 55.7%. They won’t shoot that well on Tuesday. Count on the Tigers playing sound defense. For the year, they are allowing a FG% of only 39.6. That’s top 22 in the country. They need to play that kind of defense because no one on the team averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season. This is just the second all-time NCAA Tourney appearance for Texas A&M-CC and first since 2006-07. I expect them to struggle to make shots. Texas Southern has been in the “First Four” two times previously with those games averaging just 111 PPG. Go with the Under in this one. |
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03-11-22 | LSU v. Arkansas OVER 138.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
The second SEC quarterfinal pits LSU (the 5-seed) against #16 Arkansas (the 4-seed). LSU won yesterday, 76-68 as an 11-point favorite over Missouri. Arkansas had a bye. The Razorbacks won’t be too upset to see the Tigers in this quarterfinal matchup. They swept the season series, winning 65-58 at Baton Rouge in January and then 77-76 in Fayetteville last week. In terms of the number of points scored, I look for this “rubber match” to be more in line with that more recent meeting. LSU has scored 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Arkansas has scored 74 or more in five of its last six. The thing about that last meeting ending up so high scoring is that neither team shot well from three. They combined to miss 38 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Expect a lot better long-distance shooting on Thursday afternoon. LSU didn’t cover yesterday. They are 7-1 Over off an ATS loss. |
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03-10-22 | TCU v. Texas OVER 125.5 | Top | 65-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City. Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference! Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc. Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG. TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5. |
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03-09-22 | Binghamton v. Vermont UNDER 136 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Vermont is the clear class of the America East. That’s why they are 20+ point favorites in the semifinals of the tournament. While I expect the Catamounts to win here, that price is too high. Expect it to be a low-scoring game against Binghamton Wednesday night. The ol’ Binghamton Bearcats were not even expected to get this far, but they upset the 3-seed, New Hampshire, in the first round of the tourney. They were 7.5-point underdogs and won 72-69. But it has been a LONG time since Binghamton beat Vermont. The most points they’ve scored in any of the L10 meetings is 63. In two losses to Vermont this year, Binghamton averaged just 50 points. Both games stayed Under. Binghamton shot around 35% overall in the two games and was a combined 9 of 45 from three. Though Vermont put up 98 in its first round win over NJIT, that’s not a number you should expect here. In six of the previous seven games, the Catamounts did not top 76. They are averaging 74.7 PPG this year. But the key for Vermont is that they’ve held the last six opponents all to 61 points or less. I already talked about what they did to Binghamton in the two regular season meetings. The underdog just isn’t going to score many points here, so the favorite won’t have to go all out offensively either. Take the Under |
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03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra OVER 159 | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Five straight Charleston games have gone Over the total. The last one was against Hofstra, who they’ll face again here in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. I expect the Over trend to continue. Last Monday it was an 89-84 Hofstra win. The teams entered that game knowing they would be facing each other again in the Tournament, The key for Hofstra is always forcing turnovers. They forced 28 on Monday, a season-high. While they may not force that many again today, Charleston does tend to be rather careless with the basketball on a regular basis, ranking 295th in turnover rate. Charleston also plays at the fastest tempo in the country, so this game will have plenty of possessions. Over their previous five games, Charleston is averaging 84.4 points on 54.1% shooting. Save for a head-scratcher against Elon, Hofstra has been scoring plenty themselves. They’ve topped 75 in six of their last seven games. This should be a really high scoring game. The Over is 17-4 in Charleston’s last 21 games as an underdog. Take the OVER |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU OVER 152 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
These are two teams desperate for a win. Alabama is only 3-13 ATS in SEC play and just lost outright, by 16, as a 10-point home favorite to Texas A&M. That same night, LSU came up a point short against Arkansas. They at least covered, which was their third straight win at the pay window. Both teams are considered safe for the NCAA Tournament. Neither can earn a top four spot in the SEC Tournament, but today’s result will affect seeding. Expect a high-scoring game with Alabama involved. Despite shooting only 31.3% from three, the Crimson Tide is averaging 80.2 points/game this year. The problem is - when they get out on the road - they give up 80.5 points per game. LSU has scored 75 or more in four of its last five contests. The Tigers lost the first meeting with Alabama, 70-67 in Tuscaloosa, but attempted only 15 free throws and made just nine. At home, they’ll get more chances from the charity stripe here. Alabama is a perfect 6-0 Over as an underdog this season. |
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03-04-22 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 130.5 | Top | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Incredibly, Loyola Chicago slipped to the 4-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Ramblers had a chance to win the conference outright, but lost on the final day of the regular season, 102-96 to Northern Iowa in overtime, then fell victim to tiebreakers. I think they should still be considered the favorite to win this particular tourney. In the quarterfinals, they’ll face Bradley, who is the 5-seed. Neither team had to win to get here. Bradley finished the regular season at 17-13 SU overall, 11-7 in conference play. Loyola was 22-7 SU overall, 13-5 in conference play. The two regular season meetings were both won by the home team. Loyola won 78-71 in its gym, only for Bradley to return the favor in a much lower-scoring game, 68-61. It will be interesting to see how things play out here in St. Louis. This seems like a low total. Not saying that just because of how high-scoring Loyola’s last game was (and it was 85-85 at the end of regulation). But both of these squads’ games have averaged just over 136 points over the course of the whole season. Loyola shoots nearly 39% from three and is 13-4 Over this year when the total falls between 130 and 139.5. They have topped 80 in regulation each of the last two games. Bradley should score enough here as well; they’ve gone Over six of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. |
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03-03-22 | California v. Arizona State UNDER 126 | Top | 44-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Two of the more downtrodden teams in the Pac 12 meet here with California and Arizona State both trying to create some momentum before the conference tournament. The Golden Bears enter off an ugly 53-39 win over Stanford, which improved their record to 12-17 overall and 5-13 in conference play. The Sun Devils have won two in a row, beating Colorado and Utah on the road. Going back a bit more, ASU has won five of its last six. They are now 12-16 overall, but 8-10 in Pac 12 play, so they are still in the mix for a decent seed. That’s unlike Cal, who will be a bottom three seed in the tournament. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Just look at the score from Cal’s last game. They only allowed 39 points! Problem is, they’ve scored less than 60 themselves in back to back contests. Well, that’s not a problem when you’re taking the Under! Over it’s last six games, Arizona State has allowed an average of only 59.5 points per game. The Under is 6-0 when ASU is a favorite this year and 10-3 in all of their home games. |
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03-02-22 | North Carolina A&T v. Radford UNDER 131 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
The first of four first round games in the Big South Tournament today pits North Carolina A&T against Radford. These teams are seeded 8th (Radford) and 9th (NC A&T). The winner will move on to face top seed Longwood in the quarterfinals on Friday. This entire tournament is played in Charlotte. There was no home court advantage when these teams met twice in the regular season as the road team won both games. NC A&T and Radford are no strangers to one another as they just played in the regular season finale on Saturday, with Radford winning 63-52. The teams combined to shoot 7 of 36 on three-pointers. They were 40 of 108 overall, which is very bad. It was a far cry from the first meeting when the teams combined to make 15 of 37 three-pointers and NC A&T shot 56% overall. It was an easy Under on Saturday as the total was roughly the same as it is here. Radford is 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams. NC A&T is 4-0 Under this season following a game where they failed to score more than 60 points. The Highlanders are also 4-0 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 11. Take the Under this morning. |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | Top | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Arizona and USC are set to tangle here in a battle of Top 25 teams out of the Pac 12. Arizona stayed ranked #2 (in the country) despite losing Saturday. It was only their third loss of the season and most of the teams in the Top 10 also lost. USC is up to #16 after winning its last six games, the last three being decided by a total of just SIX points. You should expect this game to see a lot of scoring. Arizona plays at the sixth fastest tempo in the country and also averages 84.4 points per game, third most in the country. USC is averaging 76.6 points per game here at home. With Arizona having just scored only 63 points (on 39.2% shooting) in the loss to Colorado on Saturday, it’s quite reasonable to expect them to have a bounce back game at the offensive end. They are looking to clinch the Pac 12 regular season title. The 63 points in the last game represented their low benchmark for February. USC did not shoot well the first time they faced Arizona, making just 34.3% of their shots. They were really bad from three. But they’ll shoot better at home. They should also look to go inside as Arizona just gave up 54 points in the paint to Colorado. Like Arizona, USC is one of the taller teams in the country. Take the Over in this one. |
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02-24-22 | Belmont v. Murray State OVER 144.5 | Top | 43-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This sets up as the Game of the Year in the Ohio Valley Conference with #19 Murray State hosting its top challenger Belmont. The teams are separated by two games, meaning Belmont cannot win the OVC regular season title outright. Murray State is a perfect 16-0 in the league, South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the only other teams in the country that haven’t lost a single conference game. I look for the teams to get off to a fast start in this one. The first time they played, it was a 48-35 game at halftime and Murray State ended up winning 82-60. Belmont shot very poorly that day, connecting on only 40.7% of their shots and going 5 of 23 from three-point range. Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot better tonight. They have not lost since January 20th and come in averaging 79.1 points per game. They are shooting almost 50% overall for the season. Murray State averages 79.7 points per game this season and at home they are averaging almost 90 points per game! The Racers shoot 51.4% in home games where they have not lost in 2021-22. Murray State got off to a slow start in its last game (eventually beat UT Martin 62-60), which is why I’m anticipating a fast start here. Belmont only made 6 of 26 threes against SIU Edwardsville and left some points at the free throw line. Take the OVER. |
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02-23-22 | Bucknell v. Army OVER 145 | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Bucknell and Army meet for the second time in 2022 and if the first meeting, or even more recent results (from both teams) are any indication, then this Patriot League matchup should be pretty high-scoring on Wednesday. The first time these teams played, Army won 96-89. Both sides shot the lights out. Army made 60 percent of its field goal attempts while Bucknell wasn’t too far behind at 55.7 percent (also made 45.8% from three). Since that first meeting, we’ve seen numerous high scoring games from each team. Bucknell is coming off a 92-89 win over Lafayette. That game did go to overtime, but the Bison have now shot better than 50 percent in three of their last four contests. The fact they also are giving up almost 80 points per game is another reason to like the Over here. Army has allowed a total of 183 points in its last two games with the opponents shooting 57 percent! What if I told you that Bucknell has the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the country? Or that the Over has hit in five of their last six games? I’m quite shocked that the total is not higher here than it was for the first matchup between the teams. |
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02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 138.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan and Wisconsin are both looking to follow up impressive wins on the road. The Wolverines, who are 14-10, need this game more as Wisconsin is 20-5 and well positioned to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan scored 84 points Thursday at Iowa on 50% shooting. They won’t need nearly that many to win Sunday, though it should be pointed out that the Wolverines have topped 80 in three of their last six games. The Over is 6-3 in Michigan’s last nine games and two of the games that stayed Under had higher totals than what we’ve got for today’s matchup. Wisconsin scored 74 points in its win over Indiana on Tuesday. They rallied in the second half for the victory. The Over is 6-0 the last six times the Badgers have been off an ATS win. The Over is also 4-0 the previous four times Michigan has been a road underdog. Looking at what both teams are averaging this season and the total for this game, I think it’s very reasonable to expect an Over. |
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02-17-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Cal-Riverside OVER 124 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
This is a pretty low total, surprising because the last five Cal State Bakersfield games have all gone Over. There’s been a remarkable consistency with the last three, which have all seen exactly 136 total points scored. Now, the low total probably has something to do with UC Riverside, who has seen the Under hit in five of its last six games. But the one Over did come in their last game, last Saturday, as the Highlanders gave up 85 points in a loss to UC San Diego. The first time these Big West rivals met, the game went Over. The final score was 65-64, in favor of Riverside. Neither team even shot all that well in the first meeting. UC Riverside made only 6 of its 27 three-point tries. CS Bakersfield was just 40.4% overall from the field. I expect better all-around shooting tonight. Yes, I know the Under is a perfect 8-0 in Riverside home games this season. It’s time for one to go the other way. Take the OVER |
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02-12-22 | Oklahoma v. Kansas OVER 141.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Last Saturday, I went with the Under when Kansas hosted Baylor. The Jayhawks ended up allowing just 59 points in a statement win in Lawrence. Unfortunately, that “statement” was then followed by a 79-76 loss at Texas on Monday. It’s back inside Allen Fieldhouse for the Jayhawks here. They welcome in Oklahoma, who figures to score more here than Baylor did last week. The Sooners are coming off a big win, beating Texas Tech 70-55 on Wednesday. OU has not won in this building since 1983, which is pretty incredible. The fact Kansas is averaging 82.2 points per game at home this season will make it difficult to end the long losing streak. Both teams had success defending the three-point line in their last games. Even though they lost, Kansas kept Texas to 3 of 20 from behind the line. Oklahoma held Texas Tech to 2 of 17. I don’t think either side will be that good, or lucky, here today. So while I went Under last week, this time it’s an Over play on Kansas. You can look for more threes to fall and more free throws to be attempted than the last time these teams met. The Jayhawks attempted just six FTs in the 67-64 victory. |
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02-05-22 | Baylor v. Kansas UNDER 145 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Top 10 teams meet for the first time in 2022. Kansas gets to host first, looking to add to its six-game win streak in conference play. However, Baylor is the higher ranked team coming into Saturday. The defending National Champs, despite three losses in the last seven games, are #8 in the country. (They opened the season 15-0). Kansas is #10. Both squads lost to SEC teams last Saturday, Baylor at Alabama and Kansas at home to Kentucky. They each bounced back with a conference win earlier in the week. Baylor came from behind to beat West Virginia by four. A day later, Kansas went to Iowa State and won by nine. This looks like a pretty even matchup. Baylor desperately needs to shore up its defense, which has let the last two opponents to shoot 59% and 54% from the floor. I think they will, plus Kansas probably won’t shoot 56% as it did vs. Iowa State. Even with that hot shooting, the Jayhawks managed only 70 points vs. Iowa State. That was after being held to 62 by Kentucky. The number just seems too high. Bet the under. |
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01-29-22 | Tennessee v. Texas OVER 126.5 | Top | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Tennessee and Texas, two ranked teams, do battle in Austin Saturday night as part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. This is Rick Barnes’ return to Austin, where he coached for 17 seasons. I anticipate this being a higher-scoring affair than expected. The Volunteers have won their last three games, but still in my mind is the memory of them giving up 107 points to Kentucky not that long ago. I suppose you could try and call that an aberration, but the fact is three of the last four times the Vols have gone on the road, they’ve allowed 70 or more points. They also just gave up 71 to Florida Wednesday night. Texas tends not to give up many points, but they also rarely face a team that is as good offensively as Tennessee is. Consider that, against Florida, the Vols put up 78 points and that was despite having a five minute stretch where they didn’t even attempt a single shot! The Longhorns were very dominant in their last game, rolling TCU in what was a 23-point win. I just think that both teams are capable of scoring 65 points tonight. That would mean the Over hits. |
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01-29-22 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 139 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
We’ve got Michigan State coming off a loss and Michigan needing this game pretty badly. The unranked Wolverines have put together a nice three-game win streak, but are still only 10-7 on the season. They need more wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Winning at East Lansing would be a big help. But the Spartans just dropped a one-point decision at Illinois earlier in the week. It was low-scoring, 56-55, and that’s what I think this game will be as well. During the three-game win streak, Michigan has shot better than 57 percent from the floor. There’s simply no way that can continue. Not against a MSU team that is keeping its opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season. Visiting teams are hitting less than 30 percent from three at the Breslin Center. Of course, MSU shot very poorly in the Illinois game, making just 34.5 percent of its attempts. The Under has hit each of the previous four times Sparty has been a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. |
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01-19-22 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M OVER 143.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The last time Kentucky played, they put up 107 points. That would be impressive against anyone, but to do that against Tennessee, a nationally ranked team that’s also fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, well that’s just awesome. Proud to say I had the Wildcats against Tennessee. Look for them to score a lot again tonight as they visit Texas A&M. Kentucky is averaging 84 points per game this season. They’ve gone over 90 in five of the last eight games. But A&M can score too. Especially when they’re at home. The Aggies average 80.9 points here in College Station. I know that the last two games, both Unders, were low-scoring. But before that A&M had a streak of six straight games scoring at least 80 points. Frankly, I’m stunned this total isn’t higher. A&M, who is on an eight-game win streak, has gone Over all four times they’ve been an underdog this year. Kentucky won’t shoot as well as they did against Tennessee. But they will still score 75 or more points and that’s all we need. Take the OVER |
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01-17-22 | Purdue v. Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
For the first time this season, Purdue is an underdog. That’s because Monday’s opponent, Illinois, is no joke. The Fighting Illini deserve to be ranked much higher than #25. No need to spend much time singing the Illini’s praises to Boilermaker fans though. Illinois has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points. But Purdue is also very good and I don’t want to fade them either. What I will do though is take the Over. Neither team has much trouble scoring and you should expect plenty of points in this early Monday tipoff. Purdue is putting up 85.6 points per contest. That’s sixth most in the country. They scored 92 on Friday in a blowout win over Nebraska. It was the fourth straight Boilermakers’ game to go Over the total. Illinois is averaging 79.7 points this season, 83.8 when at home. Their last game, a 68-53 win over Michigan, was pretty low-scoring. But that was after putting up at least 76 points in 10 straight games. My view is that Purdue is the better team, but Illinois is undoubtedly hotter. Both teams can obviously score. The Over is 10-2 in the Boilermakers’ previous 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER here. |
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01-08-22 | Wichita State v. Houston OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
more analysis to come |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 146.5 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day. Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Baylor/Iowa State These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game. The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State |