Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-13-24 | Marina Rodriguez v. Jessica Andrade +105 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 58 h 39 m | Show |
This is an interesting battle of two Brazilian fighters who both need a win to keep their momentum going. Marina Rodriguez is a quality striker but she doesn't have the strength or power that Andrade has. Remember that Andrade has fought at Flyweight, 125 pounds instead of 115. One recent common opponent was Amanda Lemos. Lemos scored a TKO against Rodriguez. Andrade submitted her in the first round! Andrade, the former champion, is going to hurt Rodriguez with body blows, something she does well. Rodriguez isn't going to possess the power to make Andrade respect her. Instead, Andrade will take some shots in order to get in. She will mix in grappling and will be able to exploit Rodriquez's suspect take-down defense. Whether by KO/TKO or submission, Andrade will win this fight! |
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12-16-23 | Brandon Royval v. Alexandre Pantoja UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Brandon Royval is off back-to-back 1st Rd wins. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in either the 1st or the 2nd round. Alexandre Pantoja went the distance against Moreno last fight. He won his previous fight in the 1st round though. He previously defeated Royval in the 2nd round. Royval's style makes it likely that this rematch won't last long. The Raw Dog fights with ferocity and pace. Go with the Under! ***UFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR*** |
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12-02-23 | Miesha Tate v. Julia Avila -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
Miesha Tate. She's a legend. She's taken on fighters like Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm. She's even fought Ronda Rousey. Twice. That's all in the past. Those Rousey fights (both losses) were back in 2012 and 2013. Tate retired in 2016. Out of the sport for 5 years, she returned in 2021. She's been outclassed in both fights since coming back and has now lost 4 of her last 5. Clearly, Tate is on the downside of her career. She probably should have never come back. Avila has been out of action due to a pregancy. She left at the top of her game though. She's a couple years younger than Tate and still believes her time is yet to come: Avila said: "I’m going to see this through and there’s going to be a title in my future." She fought really hard to get back and will build up her name by handing Tate her 3rd loss in a row. ***UFC Fight Of The Year*** |
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09-23-23 | Andre Fialho -162 v. Tim Means | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
At first glance, this might not seem like the most exciting bout. Both fighters are on losing streaks but this is arguably the highlight of the prelims. Each could really use a victory. At 29 years of age, Fialho can still salvage his career. Means, now 39 years old, cannot say the same. Both prefer to strike. That's going to work to Fialho's advantage. Though he has been knocked out a few times, he's got a lot more power than Means. Though he's absolutely capable of winning a decision, I've got the younger Fialho winning this one by KO/TKO. *UFC Fight Of The Week |
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11-12-22 | Mike Trizano v. Seung Woo Choi -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.
It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.
Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.
Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10* |
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07-30-22 | Alex Perez v. Alexandre Pantoja -182 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! |
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07-16-20 | Dan Ige v. Calvin Kattar OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February. The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige. |
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06-20-20 | Marion Reneau v. Raquel Pennington -160 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 59 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Raquel Pennington is 10-8 and Marion Reneau is 9-5-1. Pennington has split her last six fights and she comes off a loss to Holly Holm in January. Note that despite eight losses, Pennington only has been finished in two of those setbacks. Pennington has superior cardio and her striking game is vastly superior to Renau's. Renau has split her last six fights as well and enters off a March 2019 setback to Yana Kunitskaya. The pick: While Pennington's fight vs. Holm was highly competitive, Renau was massacred in her loss. Note that Renau is 43 and Pennington is 32. Age is the final deciding factor for me in this matchup and all things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it with confidence. 8* DESTRUCTION on Raquel Pennington. |
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05-30-20 | Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley -160 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -160 | 279 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes the last three UFC main events have seen the underdog come out on top, but I believe that Gilbert Burns' current five-fight win streak comes to an end here vs. Tyron Woodley, the fomer champion. Woodley was last in action in UFC 235 where he was soundly thumped in an unanimous decision vs. Kamaru Usman. Usman still holds that title and if Woodley wants a shot at a rematch, he'll need to focus on Burns here. Burns is clearly no push over, but Woodley is a huge step up in competition here in my opinion. The pick: Burns enters off a first-round KO of Demian Maia just two months ago, but Woodley has a sizeable advantage here with a three-inch reach advantage. And while Burns would love to take this to the ground, note that Woodley is incredibly adept at guarding vs. the takedown, as only eight percent of takedown attempts in the UFC have been successful against him. I like the ex-champ to step up here and to finally break this trend of underdogs winning in the main event. Lay it. 8* DESTRUCTION on Tyron Woodley. |
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05-16-20 | Alistair Overeem v. Walt Harris -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 153 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Alistair Overeem is 45-18-0 and the 39 year old weighs 265 pounds. Walt Harris is 13-7-0 in the UFC and the 36 year old weighs 250 pounds. Harris comes off a Round 1 win over Aleksei Oleinik, while Overeem lost by TKO in the fifth round to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The pick: Both fighters are similar in some respect, but I think Harris' power will be too much for Overeem to overcome here. Great that the veteran stepped up to take this fight, but I think the younger and hungrier fighter delivers the goods. I'll lay this reasonable mid-sized price as I expect hard-hitting Harris to get the job done. 10* UFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Walt Harris. |
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05-13-20 | Anthony Smith -155 v. Glover Teixeira | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 81 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: Anthony "Lionheart" Smith is 32-14-0 and is 31 years old, while Glover Texeira is 30-7-0 and 40 years old. Smith beat Alexander Gustafsson by rear naked choke last time out. Glover Texeira is coming off a win as well, getting the better of Nikita Krylov. The pick: Smith has three inches of reach on his opponent and I believe the younger fighter will ultimately use this major advantage, to his advantage. Lay the price with confidence. 8* play on Anthony Smith. |
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05-13-20 | Ben Rothwell +130 v. Ovince St. Preux | 1-0 | Win | 130 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ovince Saint Preux is 24-13 and Ben Rothwell is 37-12. St. Preux is making the jump up to heavyweight for this fight, most of the time fighting in light heavyweight. He most recently snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win over Michal Oleksijczuk. The pick: Rothwell is coming off a win as well, knocking out Stefan Struve. This is a big fight for both fighters, but I like Rothwell, a natural heavyweight, to continue his progression with another quality win here. Great value play in my opinion. 8* play on Ben Rothwell. |
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05-13-20 | Ray Borg v. Ricky Simon -165 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ricky Simon is 15-3, but he's split his last four fights. After a loss to Rob Font in December, I think Simon is going to dig deep into his bag of tricks and find a way to get the job done vs. Ray Borg. Simon is the superior athlete and his ground and pound is by far superior. The pick: Borg is 13-4 and he's also split his last four fights, most recently beating Rogerio Bontorin in February. Borg has interestingly missed weight in four of his last eight fights, which brings into question his focus at times. Simon also has a six inch reach over Borg. All things considered, I believe this price could/should be much higher. Lay it. 8* play on Ricky Simon. |
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05-10-20 | Justin Gaethje +155 v. Tony Ferguson | Top | 1-0 | Win | 155 | 280 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm taking three underdogs in UFC 249. That includes in the main fight of the night between Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson. This is for the UFC Interim Lightweight Championship. Gaethje is 21-2 and he's won ten of his last 12 fights. Gaethje most recently beat Donald Cerrone. In fact, it was Gaethje's third first round knock out in a row. Ferguson is 25-3 and he's won 12 fights in a row. Ferguson also most recently beat Donald Cerrone, back in June. The pick: This is a letdown spot for Ferguson though, who was scheduled to fight Khabib originally, but a combination of injury delay and now the virus has him now facing the hungry and red hot Gaethje. With nothing to lose, I like the underdog to deliver the goods in this tite match. 10* play on Justin Gaethje. |
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05-09-20 | Dominick Cruz +195 v. Henry Cejudo | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 279 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: Dominick Cruz is 22-2 and he's won 64 percent of his fights by decision. Cruz has won 13 of its last 14 fights. Cruz hasn't fought since 2016, when he lost to Cody Garbrandt. Cruz has seen 11 of his last 13 fights go the distance, as his endurance is one of his biggest strengths. The pick: Henry Cejudo is 15-2 and he's won just 53 percent of his fights by decision. Cejudo has won five in a row, including a victory over Marlon Moraes last time out. I think the long lay off actually benefits the veteran Cruz. This is his opportunity to get back into contention and I look for him to make the most of it. Cejudo is an accomplished wrestler and his striking has improved, but I think he's over-priced in this matchup. 8* play on Dominick Cruz. |
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05-09-20 | Yorgan De Castro +160 v. Greg Hardy | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 278 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yorgan De Castro and Greg Hardy are fighting for the UFC Lightweight Championship in this one. Hardy is 5-2-1, but he's split his last six fights, most recently coming off a loss to Alexander Volkov in November. Hardy was completely outclassed from the get-go and I think the ex-football player will have troubles here as well. The pick: Yorgan De Castro is 6-0 and he most recently comes off a win over Justin Tafa in October. De Castro is a young fighter, but he's more rounded, especially on the ground. This is a huge opportunity for De Castro and I think he offers great value to pull off the upset vs. over-rated Hardy. 8* play on YORGAN DE CASTRO. |
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03-14-20 | Demian Maia +166 v. Gilbert Burns | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Demian Maia is a legend in Brazil. He takes on Gilbert Burns, his fellow countryman in this fight. Maia is 28-9, while Burns is 17-3. Maia is 42 years old and he enters on a three-fight win streak, finishing Ben Askren in the third round in October, his 14th submission of his career. The pick: Burns is on a four-fight win streak himself. Burns is 33 and Maia is 42. Most recently Burns got the better of Gunnar Nelson and his last loss came in July 2018, when he was knocked out by Dan Hooker. Maia though hasn't been finished in a bout since way back in 2009 though and I don't think Burns has what it takes either. I think this one goes to decision and I look for Maia to earn the hard-fought victory. 10* Coachs' Corner on Demian Maia. |
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02-15-20 | Diego Sanchez v. Michel Pereira -145 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 442 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Diego Sanchez is long past his prime. This is a clear setup fight for Michel Pereira in my opinion. Sanchez's career peaked all the way back in 2009. Since then he's won and lost to various opponents. Pereira has fought twice in the UFC, the first being an awesome knock-out and the second he lost by unanimous decision to Tristan Connelly. The pick: Pereira has nothing to fear here. It's Sanchez who is going to have to press early and I think the veteran is going to get caught by his more explosive/hungrier opponent. Lay the price. 10* UFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Michel Pereira. |
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05-02-15 | Floyd Money Mayweather Jr -190 v. Manny Pac Man Pacquiao or Draw | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show | |
It's being billed as the "FIGHT of the CENTURY" - But can two of the biggest names in boxing live up to all the hype (past their prime)? We'll find out on Saturday night, and when the dust settles, Rogers cashes another winning ticket. Here are my keys to the fight: 1. Floyd the Fighter - Maywheather is a fighter through and through. Everything in his life revolves around being an arrogant and ignorant tough guy. He has no other interests to distract him from his goal of being the greatest fighter of all time. 2. Manny the Politician - Pacman is a larger than life figure in the Philippines, the most famous and most loved man in the nation's history. He's involved in politics, as well as several business ventures that demand his attention. He also owns a professional basketball team that he plays for. When one of the American players on the team suggested that Pacman might not have the skills to compete in pro hoops, he was immediately released by the team. 3. X-Factor - Pacquiao lost both his fights in 2012, and looked quite bad getting knocked out in the sixth round by Juan Manuel Marquez. Selection: This is a play on Floyd Mayweather (5*) |