Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-22 | Kevin Holland v. Khamzat Chimaev OVER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. Lets keep this simple... Chimaev was priced at -1100 versus Nate Diaz, but he missed weight by a whopping 7.5 pounds. He now has to fight Kevin Holland, who weighs in as a 179 lbs middleweight. This comes at the last minute, and the odds have dropped to Chimaev -550 versus Holland. While he has an 11-0 record with six knockouts, many of those fights came against lesser competition. Holland has seven wins and a draw in his last 10 fights, and both losses during that span came by way of decision. He went the distance versus Brunson and Vettori. Chimaev went the distance in a close fight versus Gilbert Burns, so I think it's asking a lot for him to finish Holland early in this fight. GL, Jesse |
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07-31-22 | Julianna Pena v. Amanda Nunes UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under 2.5. Watching the first fight, you notice that Pena came in with an aggressive game plan. She executed exactly what she wanted to do, and it caught Nunes by surprise. Amanda is a huge favorite in the rematch, and I doubt she wants to let Pena hang around and repeat what she did in the first fight. She's lost five fights as a professional, and she's followed up every one of those losses with a first round finish in her next fight. In her 26 career fights, she's left it to the judges just five times. This fight should end in the first two rounds. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-08-22 | Justin Gaethje v. Charles Oliveira -165 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 49 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Oliveira. Charles Oliveira has won 10 straight fights, and impressive fashion. His last three wins came against Poirier, Chandler and Ferguson. He finished nine of his last 10 opponents, with only Ferguson going the distance. I liked Oliveira before the weigh in, and after he missed weight the money has been flowing in steady on Gaethje. I did a little digging, and since the UFC introduced its early weigh-in procedures in June 2016, betting favorites who missed weight went on to win at a rate of 76.2%. Oliveira didn't look any worse for wear at the weigh in, so I don't expect it to impact the fight a great deal. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-23-22 | Cyril Gane -142 v. Francis Ngannou | 0-1 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Gane. Ciryl Gane is undefeated with a 10-0 record, and he's coming off impressive victories over Derrick Lewis and Alexander Volkov. The win over Lewis is significant, because Lewis beat Ngannou and since his loss to Gane he had an impressive showing in a KO win over Daukaus. The rumor mill is swirling about a knee injury that will require surgery for Ngannou. His sparring partner told reporters that it was an inssue in training, it would require surgery and could even result in the fight being postponed. Now I wouldn't go to the bank on that information alone, but it adds fuel to the fire with a play that I liked enough already. Ngannou is a KO specialist, with a 12-0 KO record. He runs into trouble if he can't score the early KO though, and he's fighting a guy who's more athletic, and has more experience going the distance in big fights. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | Jonathan Pearce v. Omar Morales -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Omar Morales. With only a couple of UFC fights under his belt, Jonathan Peirce might be biting off more than he can chew here versus 11-1 Morales. With his only loss coming against Giga Chickadze, Morales is the more experienced of the two fighters. He's never been knocked out, and he's facing a fighter who's seen six consecutive fights decided by KO. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Morales. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-08-21 | Derrick Lewis v. Cyril Gane UNDER 4.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 4.5. Derrick Lewis comes into this fight with 24 KO victories in 32 fights. He's a 3-1 underdog versus the undefeated Cyril Gane, who has finished his opponent in six of his nine fights in the UFC. His most impressive knockout was against Junior Dos Santos, who also knocked out Derrick Lewis in 2019. While many will be tempted to back the underdog Lewis and hope for the early KO, I expect Gane to use his superior grappling to score a victory within the first four rounds. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-24-21 | TJ Dillashaw v. Cory Sandhagen UNDER 3.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 3.5. Cory Sandhagen comes into this Main Event fight versus TJ Dillashaw as a 2-1 favorite, and he's never fought past three rounds in the UFC. In 16 career fights, 10 times the end has come by way of KO or submission. The majority of his decisions happened earlier in his career, and he's coming consecutive wins by KO. Dillashaw will be looking to prove that his past success wasn't due to PED use, and bounce back from a first round KO loss to Henry Cejudo. His previous two fights were KO victories over Cody Galbrant in rounds 1 and 2. Buckle up folks, somebody could get KO'd here in the early rounds. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-10-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor UNDER 2.5 | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 101 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 2.5 rounds. A younger McGregor knocked out Dustin Poirier in the first round, but earlier this year Connor looked past his prime when he was knocked out by Poirier in the 2nd round of the rematch. Connor claims to be focused on revenge, and this fight will be much the same as the first fight. He has 27 fights on record, and only three times has he gone past the second round. He won by decision versus Nate Diaz and Max Holloway, and lost in the 4th round to Khabib. He's at his best when he's aggressive, and I expect him to come on like gangbusters in this fight. Whether or not he still has it in him, I expect somebody to get knocked out. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-13-21 | Marvin Vettori v. Israel Adesanya OVER 4.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5. Adesanya will be a big favorite coming off his first loss, but I don't expect this to be an easy fight. Vettori has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, and he should be able to use his wrestling ability to hang in there with Izzy until the later rounds. He's lost four fights in his UFC career, and all four of those losses came by decision. Don't be surprised if this fight goes the distance as well. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-16-21 | Michael Chandler v. Charles Oliveira UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. I've got my eye on the main event in UFC 262, and we have every reason to think this fight will end early. The favorite (Michael Chandler) has seen his last four fights end in the first round. His last three losses came by way of KO, and two of those three knockouts have come in the first round. He's fought a total of 27 professional fights, and 15 of those fights ended in the first round. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-25-21 | Jorge Masvidal v. Kamaru Usman UNDER 4.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on fight not to go the distance. Masdival insists that he deserves a rematch versus Usman after losing a unanimous decision last July. He took the fight on short notice and was forced to make a dramatic weight cut. It's only common sense to expect him to be far better here in the rematch. Whether or not he can get a win remains to be seen, but I do expect him to be far more aggressive. He's 5-0 in his last five fights decided by knockout, and each of his last five losses have come by decision. If he is going to win this fight, he's not going to want to leave it to the judges. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-27-21 | Thomas Almeida v. Sean O'Malley UNDER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 1.5 rounds. Sean O'Malley came into his last fight with a 12-0 record, but suffered his first loss by way of first round knockout versus Marlon Vera. Nine of his 13 career fights have ended in the first round, and it seems reasonable to expect another first round KO here. His opponent Thomas Almeida has lost four of his last five fights, and 19 of his 26 career fights have ended with a KO. Both fighters should be looking for the early KO, this one should end quickly. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-21-21 | Derek Brunson v. Kevin Holland UNDER 2.5 | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 2.5 rounds. Derek Brunson certainly has knockout power, winning 11 of his 28 pro fights by way of knockout. He's also vulnerable to the KO, with five of his seven losses coming by way of knockout. Five of his last seven fights have ended with a knockout. His opponent Kevin Holland will be the favorite in this fight, and he's on a five fight winning streak. Three of those five wins came by way of knockout. Four of his last six fights have ended in the first or second round. I don't expect this fight to go the distance. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-06-21 | Aljamain Sterling v. Petr Yan -118 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Petr Yan. Yan comes in with a record of 15-1, and the one blemish on his record came by split decision back in 2016. He's since won 10 consecutive fights, five of those by KO. Aljamain Sterling has won five fights since his last loss in 2017, all of those wins coming by decision or submission. He hasn't faced anyone as accomplished as Yan, and I think he may be coming in a little overrated. With over seven months to train, Yan should be at his best, and superior striking ability should allow him to punish Sterling if he fails in take down attempts. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-24-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor OVER 1.5 | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 50 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The last fight ended with McGregor scoring a first round knockout, but I think Poirier will last at least a couple rounds here in the rematch. He's won more than his share of big fights since the loss to Connor. Wins over Gaethje, Holloway and Hooker, and a loss to Khabib in the third round. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-20 | Justin Gaethje v. Khabib Nurmagomedov UNDER 4.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. Khabib will look for the submission in this fight, while Gaethje will certainly be looking for a knockout. Gaethje has had 11 consecutive fights ending in a knockout, and when he has lost, he has been knocked out. I don't really expect an upset here, but whoever wins I think it's happening in the first four rounds. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-20 | Paulo Costa v. Israel Adesanya OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5 rounds. This historic fight features two undefeated fighters that have never been knocked out. Isreal Adesanya is a technical fighter, that isn't known to be the best finisher. He's seen three of his last four fights go the distance, including three rounds against a 45 year old Anderson Silva. Adensanya is the favorite, but Costa isn't going to be an easy opponent. He's won 13 fights, 11 of those by knockout. His last fight though was a unanimous decision against Yoel Romero. I would be suprised to see either fighter end this fight early. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-16-20 | Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over 2.5 rounds. The first fight ended with Cormier recording a knockout in the first round, but Stipe was better prepared in the second figtht and won by KO in the fourth round. Here in the third fight, there are no secrets. Both fighters know what to expect from on and other, so I expect to see a defensive battle in the early rounds. In 24 professional fights, Cormier has been knocked out only once. Stipe has been knocked out twice in 22 professional fights. This should be a war. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-25-20 | Darren Till v. Robert Whittaker UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 89 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under 4.5. Darren Till has only fought five full rounds once in his career, when he defeated Wonderboy by decision. He's fighting a much bigger, much harder hitting Robert Whittaker here tonight. His last fight was a win by decision over Kelvin Gatselum, but he had previously lost to Jorge Masvidal and Tyronne Woodley, both of those fights ending in the secondf round. Till should know his best chance to win this fight is to finish Whittaker early, and he has a reputation as a finisher. He has 21 career fights, and only seven of those contests went the distance. Whittaker has 26 career fights, and 18 of those were decided before the final bell. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-18-20 | Joseph Benavidez v. Deiveson Figueiredo -200 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 104 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Figueiredo. It was just a few months ago that Figueiredo knocked out Benavidez, and I see no reason why the rematch is going to be any different. The 32 year old Brazilian is 18-1, and has never been knocked out. Of his 19 professional fights he has finished his opponent in 15 of those fights. Benavidez is a tough customer, but he's 0-4 in title bouts. We should see another highly entertaining battle, but Benavidez is likely to come up short once again. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-16-20 | Dan Ige v. Calvin Kattar OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 61 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5. Dan Ige will be the underdog in this fight, but he's not going to be an easy out. He boasts a 14-2 record, and both of his losses have come by decision. He comes in riding a six fight winning streak, and four of his last five fights have ended in a decision. Kattar has knocked out a lot of guys, but the fact is that nine of his last 13 fights have gone the distance. Neither fighter has been knocked out, so I expect this to be a competitive battle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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07-11-20 | Jose Aldo v. Petr Yan -220 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 466 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Peter Yan. This looks like just another fight for Jose Aldo to grab a paycheck. At the age of 33, he's nowhere near the fighter he used to be. He's coming off consecutive losses, both by decision. Petr Yan comes in with a 6-0 record in the UFC, and he's won nine straight pro fights. His most recent fight was a KO win over Urijah Faber. I'll take the younger fighter here as this appears to be a set up for bigger fights to come for Yan. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-20-20 | Alexander Volkov v. Curtis Blaydes UNDER 4.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -290 | 69 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Curtis Blaydes to win by KO,TKO, Sub or DQ. Blaydes is coming off a dominant performance against Junior Dos Santos, and he's won 10 of his 15 fights by KO. Four of his last five fights have ended by knockout, and if his showing against Dos Santos is any indication, this could be a quick finish against the journeyman Volkov. The Russian has a KO record of 20-2, so we don't expect this one to be decided by the judges. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-20-20 | Marion Reneau v. Raquel Pennington -175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Raquel Pennington. Pennington has lost three of her last four fights, but when you take a look at the opposition it says a lot. Among those three losses was a decision versus Holly Holm, and a fifth round KO loss to Amanda Nunes. She looks to get back on track tonight against a 43 year old fighter that has lost her last two fights. The 31 year old Pennington should be in far better shape than her opponent tonight, and I expect this to be a very one sided fight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-06-20 | Alex Caceres v. Chase Hooper -144 | 1-0 | Loss | -144 | 156 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Chase Hooper. We have the 20 year old undefeated fighter Chase Hooper matched up against a journeyman in his 30s, that is going nowhere. This fight looks like a setup to me, put together to get the up and coming star another victory. His last fight ended in the first round with a KO win over 32 year old veteran Daniel Teymur. Caceres has lost more fights than he's won over the last six years, and he's also lost seven times by submission. All of his wins in recent years have come against nobodies. I expect the 31 year old to show up to cash a paycheck, and take another L. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-30-20 | Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley OVER 4.5 | 5-0 | Win | 155 | 47 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5 rounds. Woodley lost his last fight (vs Kamaru Usman) by decision, and he's gone five rounds in four of his last five fights. He has only been knocks out once in his career, back in 2012. His last three losses have all come by decision. Burns is another tough customer, with a record of 18-3. Two of his three losses came by decision. He comes in as a winner of his last five fights, and three of those fights went to a decision. This should be a good fight, and I would expect it will be decided in the later rounds, if not by the judges. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-19-20 | Donald Cerrone v. Conor McGregor -325 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 81 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Connor McGregor to win in the first round. I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but this match looks a little suspicious. Connor McGregor is still one of the biggest draws in the fight game, and there is big money to be made promoting his fights. A lot more money in a rematch versus Khabib than there is in fighting Cowboy. This looks like a set up for a bigger fight. Connor has a record of 21-4, and 13 of those 21 wins came in the first round. He's five years younger than Cowboy, and Cerrone is coming off back to back losses, both of those fights ending early. I'll take the plus money on Connor to win this fight early. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-18-19 | Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier -138 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Daniel Cormier. Most fighters are well past their prime at the age of 40, but Daniel Cormier was 39 when he beat Miocic at UFC 226. It's hard to give Stipe the advantage as the younger fighter when he comes in at the age of 37, and has already lost to Cormier. The stats geeks love Miocic because of his significant strikes per minute rate, which is fourth best among heavyweights. At the end of the day the only stat that matters is wins and losses, and only Jon Jones has ever posed a problem for Cormier. We should see history repeat itself at UFC 241. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-19-19 | Rachael Ostovich v. Paige Vanzant -150 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Paige VanZant. When The Iceman predicted the demise of Ronda Rousey back in 2015, it wasn't very well received. Prior to her loss to Holly Holm, anyone who doubted Rousey was considered a conspiracy theorist. Now just 3 years later, Amanda Nunes is the undisputed champion, and Rousey is no longer relevant. VanZant is far from the toughest women in MMA, but something she does have in common with Ronda is that she might be the most marketable female fighter. By carefully building an impressive record against inferior opponents, Dana White could turn VanZant into another cash cow the likes not seen since Rousey. Ostovich has a career record of 4-4, and she's coming off a loss by rear naked choke to Montana De La Rosa. I don't think Ostovich will prove to be much competition for the more experienced VanZant. Take VanZant. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-26-17 | Conor McGregor v. Floyd Mayweather Jr -550 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 1677 h 18 m | Show |
MAYWEATHER vs McGREGOR |