Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks +7.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
I know everyone is in love with the SF 49ers , but Im one of these guys who still believes they are a bit over rated. Note: Im betting this is a close battle and getting a TD here is viable investment opportunity Seattle HC Pete Carroll as a home dog in his NFL career, is 9-2 ATS as a when getting f 4 or more points. SEATTLE is 17-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO L/23 at home. NFL Road favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-44 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Dallas has a long history of less than stellar Thanks Giving Day outings as is evident by a current 5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS run the the last 12 seasons. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Commanders seem to bring their best stuff for big games against top tier sides like the Cowboys. Hey I know Dallas has looked explosive of late, but it must be noted that from a historical angle they are in a play against situation.Favorites (DALLAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 11-33 ATS 5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last 3 seasons.WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS in road games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.WASHINGTON is 35-19 ATS L/54 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.DALLAS is 16-38 ATS L/54 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. Play on Washington to cover |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -8 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
This might seem like a crooked number at just over a key TD offering , but the Lions are by far the better side, and a line closer to -10 should be on the board, making this a viable lay. Note: Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points qnd facing sub .500 squads , are 6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS win which the Lions are. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.DETROIT is 9-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Play on Motown to cover |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Rams | 16-17 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
The Rams in my humble opinion continue to get to much respect from the pundits and betting public and even the lines-makers. Yes, the Rams are rested, but their overall inconsistencies and HC McVay poor coaching decisions just make them bad bets .Meanwhile, Seattle is a side, that has taken care of business against these types of teams, and with a top tier coach in Carrol on the side lines deserve respect here as a pickem or slight fav according to my power rankings. LA RAMS are 0-7 ATS in November games over the last 3 seasons. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for ago against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Seahawks to cover |
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11-19-23 | Jets v. Bills -7 | 6-32 | Win | 100 | 55 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bills are surprisingly just 5-5 on the season , and really need to get the wheels moving on their season . Their piss poor efforts are thanks in part to turnovers and a banged up D. Now n desperation mode Im and playing at home Im betting they come up big here this week vs a Jets side that is playing their 2nd straight road game after a loss at Las Vegas last time out. It must be noted that the Jets are just 1-8 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss and 1-6 ATS as a underdog after a chalk rating in their previous tilt. NY JETS are 1-8 ATS in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. BUFFALO is 26-11 ATS L/37 after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NY JETS are 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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11-19-23 | Titans +7 v. Jaguars | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 49 m | Show | |
The Jags look like weak favs here as they are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as division home favorites. I know Tennessee is off two straight losses, but it must be noted that HC Verbal has only failed to cover 1 of his L/8 as an underdog when coming off back-to-back defeats. The public is all over the Jags after the Titans miserable effort last week, but my data base has picked up on a NFL situational trend that is successful 61% of the time as it focuses on teams of that kind of ugly outing. TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Pederson is 6-16 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 in all games he has coached since 1992 NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 16-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NF Lteam vs the money line (JACKSONVILLE) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. ( Tennessee lost 20-6 last week at Tampa Bay) Play on Titans to cover |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +5 v. Texans | 16-21 | Push | 0 | 53 h 8 m | Show | |
Texans are off an emotionally charged 30-27 upset of the Bengals in Cincinnati last week and Im betting will be in a letdown situation this Sunday against a Arizona squad with QB Kyle Murray back under center. Yes, he started a little slow after the long lay off last week, but this guy is dangerous two way threat with his legs and arm and makes this Cards side dangerous in the underdog role . Arizona is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the AFC South. ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 6-20 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game. HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to cover |
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11-18-23 | Minnesota +27.5 v. Ohio State | 3-37 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Minnesota got caught looking ahead to this game with Ohio State this week, and were flattened by Purdue . That was the Gophers second straight loss but there is good news from a historical trends chart that I use. Notably Minnesota is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses, and HC Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points, and has coincidentally covered 4-0 straight as a double-digit pup versus undefeated opposition. Meanwhile, Ohio State Im betting will be looking ahead to their battle with Michigan next week and could easily find themselves more concentrated on staying healthy and play with less enthusiasm than usual. Fleck is 20-6 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992. CFBroad team (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 87-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-18-23 | North Carolina +7 v. Clemson | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 13 m | Show | |
The better team with the better record here is North Carolina vs a over rated Clemson side that should be. no more than a FG fav here based on home field advantage in Dearth Valley and not necessarily the talent gap. Mack Brown’s 16 -5- ATS in his career as a underdog with the better record, with 13 SU wins during that span, including 5-0 S/UATS the last five tilts. North Carolina has won the stats battles this season in 9 of 10 games and get the nod here to cover the number. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on North Carolina to cover |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night with both sides entering off a loss. Baltimore claimed a 27-24 victory at Cincinnati in Week 2 and now Im betting on an even wider margin of victory in the rematch. CINCINNATI is 3-14 ATS L/17 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/40 seasons for a 95% conversion for bettors with a average ppg diff of +10 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. . NFL road teams (CINCINNATI) - with a pathetic defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to cover |
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11-14-23 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan -4 | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Akron has lost all 6 of their road games this season by an average of 15 ppg, while their opponents Eastern Michigan have played their best football at Ryerson Stadium this season where they have won all 4 games. From a projection standpoint I have made the home side a -7 favorite based on some metrics the linesmakers are not using, thus giving us an edge by a FG over this offering, making this viable wagering opportunity laying points at what I perceive to be a discount . Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS L/11 meetings in this series and get the green light again. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 6-63 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 2-29 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.5 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
Denver played a big game last time out upsetting the KC chiefs but this has not been a success-full situation for the Broncos in the past as their 0-9 ATS record would indicate when coming off an underdog victory. Add to that their a ugly 0-7 ATS L/7 record in this series vs the Bills. I know the Broncos are well rested but the Bills are not in a good mood after some sub par efforts and recent loss to the Bengals last time out, and will be primed to bounce back in a big way in front of their home town fans in prime time action. Buffalo also owns a 7-0 SUATS L/7 as chalk vs a the AFC West. Buffalo has struggled to cash for their betting backers of late failing in 3 straight opportunities,, but when this has happened to them previously the Bills are cash friendly 14-1 ATS L/15 against opposition coming off a victory and 9-0 ATS playing as hosts. McDermott is 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season as the coach of BUFFALO. NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more are 21-90 L/30 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Lay the points with the Buffalo Bills |
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11-12-23 | Jets +1 v. Raiders | 12-16 | Loss | -112 | 79 h 25 m | Show | |
Jets D, is obviously their strong point and it will be their stopping units that Im betting stop the Raiders cold . A new interim coach had the Raiders playing all out football last week in a lopsided win, vs a hapless looking Giants team last week.However, I now expect all the teams previous inconsistencies to be on full display this Sunday Previous to last weeks loss the Jets had won 3 straight and according to my power rankings are the superior side here today. LAS VEGAS is 7-21 ATS L/28 in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show | |
The Jaguars (6-2) put their five-game winning streak on the line Sunday when they host the 49ers (5-3), a team that has lost three straight following a 5-0 start. However, from a-recent historical perspective this sis a good spot to support the 49ers . Note: HC Kyle Shanahan’ is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road off 3 consecutive ATS losses. This Niners team is just to talented to stay down for long and Im betting they rebound today in a big way. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons while Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS L/28 against NFC West division opponents. SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NFL team vs the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-13 ATS L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on SF 49ers |
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11-12-23 | Saints -2.5 v. Vikings | 19-27 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
Joshua Dobbs makes his first start for his new team as the Vikings host the Saints (5-4) on Sunday . Dobbs was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns , after replacing the youngster Hall, but now as a starter will have his hands full with a tough Saints D. His relative inexperience as a NFL starter will Im betting hinder him. The Saints lead the NFC South over the Falcons (4-5) and Buccaneers (3-5) and have momentum and motivation on their sides as they enter on a two game win streak. NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 18 m | Show | |
Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud set a single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards in last week’s come from behind victory vs the Buccaneers. The kid looks like he is the real deal and with the team riding high after that win will ride that momentum into this game against Bengals side that is in a emotional letdowns situation after last weeks all out effort and win vs the Buffalo Bills. HOUSTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI in Ohio. Houston to cover |
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11-12-23 | Colts v. Patriots +2 | 10-6 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
Colts can score but their D is very suspect and Im betting even the pedestrian offense of the Pats will be able to take advantage of them. Meanwhile, the one positive New England has exhibited this season is a fairly consistent D. The Patriots have shown some signs of brilliance as was the case when they took out Buffalo by a 29-25 score a few weeks ago and must not be underestimated with a HC like Belichick whose Patriots teams are 3-0 in international games all-time. NEW ENGLAND is 21-8 ATS L/29 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the second half of the season. Play on New England to cover |
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11-11-23 | Utah +9.5 v. Washington | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 20 m | Show | |
After a back forth high scoring battle against USC last week in a victory by a 52-42 count Im now looking for immediate offensive regression in a letdown spot by the Huskies who could easily find themsleves looking ahead to their big game against Oregon State next week. Huskies are 0-12 ATS L/12 after facing USC and 0-4 ATS L/4 before facing Oregon State. Washington is 0-4-1 ATS L/10 as a conference home fav of 10 points or less. Utah is 5-2 ATS L/7 in this series. Utah is 9-1 ATS L/10 as a conference road dog of 10 points or less. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 63-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play Utah to cover |
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11-11-23 | Georgia Tech +14 v. Clemson | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 53 m | Show | |
Clemson got by Notre Dame last time out to snap a two game losing streak. The win did not come easily, as the Tigers offense stalled in the 2nd half . Now in an emotional letdown scenario Im betting the home side is vulnerable and Im betting covering this spread vs an improving Georgia Tech squad will be a difficult chore. Both these teams sport identical records and both are vying for a bowl appearance, so a closer than expected game is my projection. Key is 9-2 ATS as an underdog as the coach of GEORGIA TECH. GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 10-2 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 season. Clemson is 1-5 ATS coming off a win. Play on Georgia Tech to cover |
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11-11-23 | Texas Tech +4 v. Kansas | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show | |
Texas Tech has owned this series winning 18 of the last 20 meetings against Kansas, having been favored 18 times. In the two games they were the underdog, they notched wins both times SU. Tech has also only failed to cover one time in this L/7 as a conference dog of 7 points or less and deserve respect here to cover behind a QB in QB Behren Morton, who, has thrown for 978 yards and 10 TDS in his L/5 games . CFB Home favorites (KANSAS) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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11-11-23 | Michigan v. Penn State +4.5 | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
Michigan enters this game with a perfect 9-0 record but from a historical standpoint teams with this type of W/L stat l are just 6-20-1 ATS when taking on a side a with top tier defense, that allow 20.5 ppg or less since 1982. With all the crap surrounding the Wolverines for cheating , a cloud now rests over this program, and could easily effect their play vs a motivated and very strong opponent playing at home. Franklin is 11-2 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of PENN ST PENN ST is 9-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons. CFB- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 37-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs (PENN ST) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 38-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on Penn State to cover |
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11-11-23 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +2 | 48-22 | Loss | -112 | 52 h 57 m | Show | |
BC has won 5 straight games but against what many would consider sub par competition. However, their opponent today Virginia Tech has not exactly set the ACC on fire, and after being humiliated in Louisville last time out by a 34-3 count don't look like viable road favs especially considering they have lost all 4 of their away games this season and have averaged just 12 ppg on offense in turf games this season. Alot of pundits are looking for reasons to fade Boston College, but from my perspective this is a hard working well coached team with alot of fight and deserve respect as home pups. Note:CFB road team vs. the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-42 L/31 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston College to cover |
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11-11-23 | Alabama v. Kentucky +11 | 49-21 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
Huge revenge on board for Stoops as he gets ready to get redemption for a merciless 63-3 beatdown by Saban and company the last time these two programs met. With Alabama off what must be described as their best game of the season last time out vs LSU, a letdown scenario and regression must be expected . NoteL Saban is 2-7 ATS as conference road favorite of 3 or more points against a .500 or better side. Meanwhile, Kentucky is 5-0 ATS L/5 as conference home dogs of 4 pts or more and have cashed their L/4 home finales of the season. After watching Alabama this season I cant but keep feeling this is not a 5 star group like other incarnations of this program, and that they could fail in their attempt at a SEC championship and god forbid be upset here today,No matter what happens I strongly believe we get the cover here today by backing Kentucky. Play on Kentucky to cover |
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11-07-23 | Ball State +10 v. Northern Illinois | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
It has mot been a very good campaign for Ball State overall as they have garnered only two wins so far, but they have been every competitive of late cashing 3 straight times, and playing with momentum and determination. Meanwhile, N.Illinois from a recent historical trend line has not been a very good home favorite,N.Illinois is 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and are off a loss last time out, in game where their defense continually let them down allowing 37 points. Momentum resides with Ball State. Northern Illinois owns the third-best passing defense in the country, but they struggle to stop the run as is evident by allowing 167 rushing yards per game and because of that Im betting they will have issues against duel threat QB Kelly and top tier running back Marquez Cooper . The Cardinals defense has been very staunch of late allowing just 19.5 points per game in their last four trips to the gridiron. They're 33rd against the rush and 68th against the pass and could easily give N. Illinois QB Lombardi fits here tonight . N Neu is 14-5 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of BALL ST. Ball State has won three of the last four rivalry meetings with Northern Illinois . the average ppg diff of the last 5 Stalk events have been decided by 8 points or less. Ball State to cover |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
The Chargers looked very explosive last week vs the Chicago Bears last Sunday Night in prime time action as QB Herbert completed 31-of- 40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions. When the Chargers top tier QB is running hot look out as even what has been on occasion a staunch NYJ defense will have it hands full. , Meanwhile, the flip-side the Jets continue to flounder offensively and Im betting they just wont be able to keep up. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 21-69 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Diego to cover |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | 18-24 | Loss | -112 | 84 h 2 m | Show | |
This pick here for me is simple. REVENGE .sweet sweet revenge- Buffalo comes out here this week against Cincinnati \ with a playoff-loss revenge as a rallying cry. This will be the first time in 30 games that the Bills will be lined as underdogs which is just fine with me . With the Bengals in an emotional letdown state after last weeks big win vs the 49ers they are vulnerable here to regression, as Its hard to play with that intensity against top tier competition two weeks in a row . I know the Bills have been in a bit of a funk of late from a ATS perspective but Buffalo is still a highly talented group that deserves respect . BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread . NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Buffalo is 5-2 SU/ATS L/7 at Cincinnati. Play on the Bills to cover |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Ravens | 3-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Both these sides are ranked top 10 on both defense and offense and are alot more closely matched than the linesmakers are suggesting. After a slow start on D to start their season, the Seahawks have allowed a total 50 points in their L/4 overall, (12.5 ppg) and have upward momentum entering this tilt. You have to remember the Seahawks took out a strong Detroit team on the road, and must not be underestimated in their prowess and grit. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Lamar Johnson has failed to cover 21 of 33 NFL home tilts . Carroll is 25-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS L/5 off consecutive wins.BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS L/27 in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.BALTIMORE is 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Play on Seattle to cover |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -1 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 3 m | Show | |
Chiefs looked less than motivated last time out against Denver and star QB Mahomes actually failed to throw for a TD for the first time since the 2021 season spanning 29 games. It was a shocking loss but it must be noted that HC Reid is 22-9 SU in NFL career in tilts following a SU favorite loss, including cashing 6 straight times of late a favorite of 7 or less points . Im betting the Chiefs were caught looking ahead to this game and will be very primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS l/13 in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more . In Miamis only two games vs top tier squads like the Chiefs they were blasted by DDs vs Buffalo and Philadelphia . Rinse and repeat not out of the question here. MIAMI is 1-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Chiefs to cover |
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11-04-23 | Boise State v. Fresno State -2.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
LATE STEAM QB Mikey Keene is key here to what Im betting will be a fairly conclusive home win on a short line for Fresno State. Boise State has failed to cover their L/5 roadies. BOISE ST is 1-8 ATS after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI) FRESNO ST is 34-18 ATS L/52 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. Fresno State to cover |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | 52-42 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 55 m | Show | |
The Huskies are 2-8 ATS L/10 as road chalk and are getting a ,little to much respect here vs the USC Trojans who are led by a HC Lincoln Riley .It must be noted that USCs HC is a home pup for the first time in his career and Im sure despite of the lofty opposition will have his team ready to compete. It must be noted that Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opposition and 3-0 ATS as a conference-under dog. In his career Riley is also an amazing 40-3 ATS at home overall . From a historical perspective the Trojans are 9-2 ATS as underdogs vs Washington and Im betting they leave everything on the field today after what many will consider a down season for this football program. Riley is 21-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached . CFB Home underdogs vs. the money line (USC) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 34-22 L/31 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on USC to cover |
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11-04-23 | SMU v. Rice +12.5 | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
Rice looked good last week against top tier group from Tulane losing by a 30-28 count but more importantly covering as DD underdogs . I know their opponent SMU has galloped away to a fine season, and will see post season action, but the Owls must not be underestimated and at with a .500 record need some more victories for a decent Bowl invite and are motivated to play strong here. It must also be noted that Rice is 10-1 ATS L//11 in this series while losing 11 of their L/12 here in Houston, including 0-9 ATS over the last nine visits to this venue. Note: Rice is also 10-0 ATS L/10 after playing Tulane . SMU is 17-32 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play.SMU is 6-20 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.SMU is 0-7 ATS in road games after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Lashlee is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games as the coach of SMU. CFB Road favorites (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 81-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. Play on Rice to cover |
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11-04-23 | Notre Dame v. Clemson +3 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 65 h 8 m | Show | |
Clemson is never easy to play. against in Death Valley, and even against a strong Florida State football program had a chance to win late in the game via an ugly FG attempt that missed its mark The Tigers eventually lost in OT. I know the Tigers have not looked as powerful as past incarnations, but like I said this is a tough place to play and Notre Dame already exhibited a tendency to be over whelmed in a nasty environment at Louisville in a DD loss. So its not like the Irish are invincible. Yes, I know Dabo Sweeny and company has lost 2 straight, but this HC has proven resilient in the past and has only been defeated three times a row twice in his career- the last time was back in 2010. NOTRE DAME is 15-34 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play. NOTRE DAME is 1-13 ATS L/14 off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more . CFBP home team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors -so according to this long standing trend getting points here is viable wagering opportunity. Play on Clemson to cover |
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11-02-23 | TCU +3 v. Texas Tech | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
The visiting Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3) have had a tough go of it this season, after going to the National Championship game last year. The worst effort of the season came last time out against Kstate in a ugly 41-3 loss, however, now the Frogs will now be primed for big bounce back effort against their hosts Texas Tech this week a side that has lost 2 Straight SU/ATS. Note: Though he downplayed it, this will be the first trip back to Lubbock for TCU's Sonny Dykes as a head coach at the school where his father, Spike Dykes, won 82 games from 1986-99. This game means alot to Dykes junior. TEXAS TECH is 0-6 ATS after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. CFB Road underdogs (TCU) - average passing team (6.4-7.5 PYA) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games, after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-22 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on TCU |
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11-01-23 | Kent State +3.5 v. Akron | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a tilt between two evenly matched MAC bottom feeders, and is being lined like a late FG will win it. Im in complete agreement with the lines-makers and thus I recommend we take the points. CFB road team (KENT ST) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 82-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line (AKRON) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 14-27 L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kent State to cover |
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10-31-23 | Buffalo +16 v. Toledo | 13-31 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Buffalo after a slow start have progressively improved and have now won 3 of their L/4 overall while, covering 4 of their L/5. Early season losses against Wisconsin and Liberty were not unexpected , but the Buffalos still were fairly competitive and did not not look out of place. Also a a win vs pretty good Louisiana Lafayette showed me this Buffalo team deserves my respect here against their MAC rivals the Toledo Rockets tonight. The Rockets have won 7 straight but have misfired in 6 of those games ATs. TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 58 m | Show | |
Wow were the Lions ever embarrassed last time out by Baltimore. The Lions were media darlings until that game and now they are being dumped like rotten apples by these same media pundits. However the lines-makers are still believers in this Motown crew and in my opinion for good reason. After suffering that humiliating defeat the men from Detroit now have their feet solidly planted and are ready for immediate redemption against a Vegas side that has a one dimensional offensive aerial attack that cannot run the ball and also a inconsistent D. DETROIT is 17-7 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game as the coach of DETROIT. DETROIT is 7-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. With that said, Im betting this is the kind of team the Lions matchup well against. Here at home the Lions are a money making machine for their backers as is evident by a 13-2-1 ATS since the 2021 campaign. Monday Night Football sides are 31-18 ATS dating back 43 seasons when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. I know we are betting into a crooked line, but the true value of this number should become evident as this game unfolds, as my projections make the number closer to -10 which gives us value on this offering. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover |
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10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos +7 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
Denver lost 19-8 at Kansas City two weeks ago and now Im betting they will be competitive again here at home. KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons. (Beat Chargers 31-17 last week) DENVER is 15-3 ATS L/18 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 13-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 at home in this series. Play on Denver Broncos to cover |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 89 h 28 m | Show | |
Carolina is the only winless team in the NFL so far this season, and now at home and in desperation mode against a banged up Texans squad with 11 players on the injured list which is tied with two other teams for the most in the league the Panthers have an edge. HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS L/24 vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season . Carolina is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. are 35-11 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-29-23 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
The Rams out-gained the Steelers last week and still found a way to lose, while their opponents today bounced back from a ugly loss vs the 49ers in prime time to notch a victory vs the Chargers last week. by a 20-17 count. The Rams may not inspire bettors because of their lack of consistency. However, also despite of being a rebuilding mode, still have a hardcore group of talent that plays with grit and must not be underestimated in their ability to be competitive in this spot situation. With a top tier QB Stafford at the helm of the offense, and the Rams ability to run the ball consistently behind an array of backs, Im betting they will give the Cowboys all they can handle . McVay is 27-14 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 18-9 ATS in road games in games played on turf as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 24-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of LA RAMS. Rams are 5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC sides in away games. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-32 L/10 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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10-29-23 | Jets v. Giants +3 | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 75 h 31 m | Show | |
It does not matter who starts at QB Daniel Jones or Taylor as their attack will center around star RB Saquon Barkley who is now healthy and back in the starting lineup. My power rankings suggest the Giants will have success here this week moving the ball, against a NYJ side that is off a bye week. Rest seems to do some teams well, but this Jets franchise looks to be an outliner as they are 1-10 SU including seven straight losses since 2015. Yes, I know the Jets have played well of late, but it must be noted that they are 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread . NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Play on the NYG to cover |
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10-29-23 | Patriots +9.5 v. Dolphins | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 42 m | Show | |
The Fins are expected to be without their entire left side of the offensive line in this weeks tilt vs the New England Pats. Last week the Dolphins suffered on offense scoring just one TD , because the starting center was out as well as the left tackle , and things could get hairy again this week vs a fairly staunch Pats D. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills last time out, the Pats now have some confidence and momentum and are viable underdogs here today. Belichick is 29-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS L/35 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. Play on New England to cover |
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10-28-23 | Oregon State v. Arizona +3 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
Arizona is surprising some of the pundits this season as they are still in Bowl contention with a 4-3 record. and will be very motivated to play hard here today. Meanwhile, Oregon State despite of a solid 6-1 record have had a few issues away from home , and were out gained in both away games this season and are just 2-5 ATS L/7 as PAC 12 road chalk . Beavers are also just 1-7-1 ATS L/9 as road favorites of fewer than seven points. Advantage Arizona . CFB Road favorites (OREGON ST) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-55 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to cover |
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10-28-23 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show | |
Oklahoma state just completed a trifecta of underdog winners, but now they are in a vulnerable situation after those hard fought affairs , as they look ahead to a Bedlam battle rivalry tilt against Oklahoma next week. I know Cincinnati has not looked all that consistent this season, but the talent base is still there and they are more than capable of being competitive here today vs a side that is 1-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog with Gundy as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.( Cowboys beat W.Virginia by a 38-24 count last time out. Satterfield is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached . CINCINNATI L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a ppg diff of - 0.4 . CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 92-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 57-27 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover |
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10-28-23 | Arkansas State +2.5 v. UL-Monroe | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
I know Arkansas State is no longer a Sunbelt power house, but the way UL Monroe is playing Im not sure they should be favs in this tilt. The Warhawks have lost 5 straight games most of which were not pretty watch. On the flispide, Arkansas State is off two consecutive losses vs Coastal Carolina and Troy, but after facing those viable sides, playing this group will feel like a walk in the park. Its also important to note that Arkansas State is 13-0 SUATS L/13 vs ULM.LA MONROE is 3-12 ATS L/15 as a home favorite of 3 points or less and has failed to cover 13 of their L/14 overall as conference home chalk. CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA MONROE) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 40-84 L/31 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arkansas State to cover |
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10-28-23 | Tulane v. Rice +11 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
Tulane is a top 25 ranked team but Rice must not be under estimated in this ability to competitive here this Saturday afternoon at home where they average 39.3 ppg in offensive production. RICE is 14-1 ATS L/15 in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game ( Crushed Tulsa 42-10 last time out, outgaining them by 222 yards) RICE is 16-3 ATS )n home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. RICE is 30-16 ATS L/46 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Bloomgren is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE. CFB home team vs. the money line (RICE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-3 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rice to cover |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Georgia Southern | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
The Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers as in-state Sun Belt action this Thursday night. Georgia State enters this game with a 6-1 record , including 3-1 in Sun Belt play, and enter this tilt on a two-game win streak. Note:GEORGIA ST is 10-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons and are-9-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Georgia Southern at 5-2 is fine team playing at home but Georgia State according to my power rankings is one of the most under rated teams in the nation and deserve respect .Georgia State has emerged victorious in the last three meetings between these teams and Im once again history repeats itself in this spot play. Play on Georgia State to cover |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State -7.5 v. Florida International | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State according to my own projections should be closer to 10 point road chalk here, so getting them at this number makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Jacksonville State's powerful run game and defensive stopping units have a huge edge over a FIU team that is struggling to score behind a freshman QB. It must be noted that the Gamecocks rank 50 th in the nation in defensive HAVOC , so FIUs pedestrian offensive line and freshman QB should have their hands full tonight. Despite of being an efficient defensive group the Panthers just do not matchup well vs Jacksonville States grinding productive ground attack. Remember this is a FIU squad that is 1-4 in conference play with their only victory coming in OT vs winless Sam Houston State. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-7 ATS L/7 as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points . Play on Jacksonville State to cover |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 62 h 43 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is off a loss last week vs the NYJets but actually out-gained the Jets by more than 100 yards. Im now betting on a huge bounce back performance by the Eagles against media darlings the Miami Dolphins at home in prime time this Sunday night. I know the Fins offense has been downright explosive, and have looked better than the Eagles attack, but the Eagles D is superior to that of the Dolphins by 56 plus yards a game. Since this tilt features two strong squads , Im betting as is usually the case in big games for the more physical D of the Eagles to be the difference maker. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games are 7-40 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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10-22-23 | Packers -1 v. Broncos | 17-19 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 9 m | Show | |
The Broncos enter this game as one of two teams this season without a victory against the spread as is evident by a 0-5-1 record ATS thanks in part to a 31st ranked 33.3 points per game D. I know the Broncos held the KC Chiefs to just 14 points last week , but that was in a windy atmosphere that hampered both offenses. Yes, this young Packers team, has had problems scoring of late, but that should change here this week according to my projections. Denver is 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season. DENVER is 1-10 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 5-15 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. LaFleur is 11-2 ATS off a road loss as the coach of GREEN BAY. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Green Bay to cover |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
QB Geno Smith’s just does not have consistent flow and chemistry with the offensive part of his teams attack. and as result his TD production is way down .In last weeks loss to the Bengals Geno Smith threw for 326 yards but the Seahawks failed to score on four of their trips to the red zone. I know the Seahawks have won 3 of their L/4, but I just dont like the way HC Carrols team plays- there is a lack of what I would call the warrior mentality . On the flip side The Cardinals have led at halftime in 4 of their 6 games before falling apart, so they must not be under estimated in their ability to be competitive for a full 4 quarters at some point this season. I also believe from watching some practice reports they they have made some adjustment and have decent replacements for some of their missing offensive cogs. Take the points with the Cardinals |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +2 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 42 m | Show | |
I know the Giants have struggled offensively this season ,but it must be noted that their opponents the Commanders have a underperforming defense that has struggled along the defensive line as is evident by ranking 25th in pass rush win rate and 16th in pass rush per PFF. Meanwhile on the flipside, the Giants D is improving as was evident in a recent game against the SF 49ers and should pose problems for Washingtons offensive flow. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG) against a team with a sub par defense (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 1-27 L/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (WASHINGTON) - with a struggling defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +2.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show | |
The Browns are off a huge win last week vs the 49ers as underdogs, but are now going to be in an emotional as well as physical letdown scenario after their grueling battle in the trenches. This makes the Browns vulnerable for a down performance in Indianapolis this Sunday making getting points a viable investment option. The Colts lost last time out by DDs to Jacksonville but have proved resilient in the past covering 12 of 14 after a DD SU/ATS defeat. INDIANAPOLIS is 32-17 ATS L/49 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game. CLEVELAND is 0-5 ATS L/5 coming off a win. CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Stefanski is 15-27 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of CLEVELAND. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover |
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10-21-23 | Arizona State +27 v. Washington | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
One of if not the biggest wins in the history of the Washington Huskies football program took place last week vs /Oregon and will undoubtedly see this group in a huge letdown scenario vs Arizona State this week making them vulnerable. Washington has failed to cover 7 of their L/9 after playing Oregon , and ASU is 15-1 ATS L/16 in this series. Arizona State has also on failed to cover one time in their L/7 as conference of more than 17 points. WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. CFB Underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (ARIZONA ST) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in October games are 46-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on ASU to cover |
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10-21-23 | Army +31.5 v. LSU | 0-62 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Army (2-4) fell at home to Troy last Saturday, 19-0. It was the first time that Army was shutout at home at Michie Stadium since 2003 and you can bet this fearless group will be ready to bounce back this week with a much better showing. Note:ARMY is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points . Meanwhile,LSU (5-2) enters with the second-best total offense in the nation averaging 550.4 yards per game and also ranking third in points per game (45.3) but could easily be caught looking ahead to their battle against Alabama up next. : Military schools that are dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus the SEC dating back more than 40 seasons. Monken is 15-5 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of ARMY. ARMY is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARMY is 25-9 ATS after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992. Play on Army to cover |
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10-21-23 | TCU +6.5 v. Kansas State | 3-41 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
TCU is 11-2 in Big 12 regular-season games under HC Dykes., including are 7-1 in road contests . The Oct. 7 loss at Iowa State snapped a seven-game road winning streak that was tied for second-longest in the nation so thye are side to be respected when going on the road especially when getting points.Last year's 38-28 win in Fort Worth by KState snapped a three-game losing streak to the Wildcats. But now you can bet Dykes and company have revenge on board, and I wont be surprised if they pull off the SU victory behind their uptrending QB redshirt freshman Josh Hoover who looked excellent and poised vs BYU last week in a big 44-11 DD win. Take the points with TCU |
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10-21-23 | Hawaii -1.5 v. New Mexico | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Hawaii lost a 41-34 game at the hands of San Diego State last Saturday. Hawaii gained 102 more yards on the day than their opponent and still lost but are getting more cohesive as this season progresses. QB Brayden Schager, who threw for 427 yards and three touchdown looks to have a great deal of momentum on hiss ides and deserves respect here in this spot play. CFB home team vs. the money line (NEW MEXICO) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 4-23 L/31 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. ( LATE STEAM - Hawaii to cover |
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10-21-23 | Texas v. Houston +23.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas after a loss to Oklahoma last time out, enter into this frey with extra rest . Im sure the Longhorns are still however in a letdown mode after that heart breaking loss, and that could easily hamper them against an explosive opponent that has lots of back door capabilities. TEXAS is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. TEXAS is also 0-4 ATS L/4 after taking on the Sooners. TEXAS is 1-5 ATS L/6 off a rest/ bye week. Sarkisian is 4-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS has also failed to cover as away favs of more than 12 points in 6 of their L/7 opportunities. , Houston is 8-0 ATS L/8 as dogs of more than 13 points. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show | |
Ohio State has won six straight in the series and 10 of the past 11. Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-8 vs. the Buckeyes and has lost all four games in Ohio Stadium by an average of more than 11 ppg. Penn State has not won in Columbus since 2011 and Im betting they wont turn the trick here this week.More importantly I project a TD or more win by the home side. PENN ST is 3-19 ATS L/21 vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Note:The Buckeyes' pass defense is fourth (154.3) in the country. The defense is third in average points allowed (9.7) and seventh in total defense (263.5). PENN ST is 7-19 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Day is 12-2 ATS in October games as the coach of OHIO ST. .CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ) are 41-4 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in +13.7. CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for a average ppg diff of +13.3 clicking in. Play on the Ohio State to cover |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +4.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 57 m | Show | |
Marshall lost their 2nd straight game at Georgia State this past Saturday after starting their season at 4-0.Meanwhile James Madison continued their undefeated run at 6-0 with a huge DD win vs Georgia Southern last time out . According to my power rankings despite the slight discrepancy in records -both these sides are evenly matched, with home field advantage favoring a Marshall side that is 3-0 at home this season, and long term have cashed 60% of their L/30 home games as underdogs dating back to 2002 season. Overall Marshall has 22-8 L/30 SU at home and have won 5 straight dating back to last season as hosts including a win vs Sunbelt perennial App State. Advantage Marshall CFB home team vs. the money line (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or ,more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 30-9 ATS L/31 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Marshall to cover |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State v. UTEP +3.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
Mew Mexico State according to my projections are precarious road favs here at UTEP considering they are just. 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road. I know the Aggies (4-3) are getting alot of accolades this season, and have a top tier QB under center Pavia has a QB rating of 166.9, ranking second in CUSA and 18th in FBS., but it must be noted that Opponents are averaging 204.7 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of just 89.4 when facing UTEP. The Miners ,must not be underestimated and have momentum on their sides after a road win at Florida International last week. One key feature to UTEP is in their special teams department with their punter Sloan who registered a 64 yard punt last week, and has the ability to quickly flip field position in favor of his team. Note:UTEP is 8-1 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. UTEP is 3-0 in Wednesday regular-season contests and Im betting has a great opportunity to repeat in this spot play vs a visitor that does not have a history of respectable road performances. Play on UTEP to cover |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -1 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS. NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show | |
The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time. Bills are off a loss to the Jaguars in London last week. NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Giants to cover |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | 17-21 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today. Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Patriots to cover |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +8.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 69 h 28 m | Show | |
SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season. Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Browns to cover |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | 20-37 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 10 m | Show | |
.After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense. Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). Play on Indy Colts to cover |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14 v. Dolphins | 21-42 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 58 m | Show | |
Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting Seahawks. Trends also back the the Bengals as they own a 7-0 ATS record when coming off a SU away chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS in tilts when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just 1-10 ATS in games after allowing 7 or fewer points last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100% after a right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed 36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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10-15-23 | Saints -1.5 v. Texans | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New Orleans Saints to win |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. North Carolina | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game with a 4-1 record after a loss last week to Georgia Tech, while Carolina enters at 5-0. The Canes may have fell asleep at the proverbial wheel looking forward to this game , but now Im betting they will be wide awake here vs the Heels and ready to perform. North Carolina is 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home tilt, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite. N CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992. Brown is 1-11 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of N CAROLINA. CFB road team (MIAMI) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Miami FL to cover |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
Notre Dame after a ugly effort vs a fired up Louisville Cardinal last week will be primed to get back on track vs a Trojans side that is exhibiting some weak defensive deficiencies as is evident by allowing 41 points in back to back games. What happened last week in Louisville the Irish I think was attributed to them not being able to meet the motivation factors needed after their heart breaking 17-14 loss to Ohio State the week before. USC is 5-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons NOTRE DAME is 15-4 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992. USC is 1-11 ATS in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992. USC is 1-14 ATS versus non-conference revenge, and a nasty 2-15 ATS as pups of less than 8 points and a just 2-12 ATS in non-conference road tilts. Notre Dame to cover |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
The Wildcats were upset last week in Stillwater against Oklahoma State but will now in a big bounce back situation vs Texas Tech this week. I know Texas Tech is off a big win last time out vs Baylor . Note:. K-State is 11-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS defeat. and 11-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, .Texas Tech is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series and are fade material vs what my own power ranking suggest is the superior side. Also the Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and their energy levels will be high as thyey look for redemption. Play on Kansas State |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 74 h 60 m | Show | |
Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis +5 | 31-21 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. Memphis is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis Tigers to cover |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston. Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -2 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6 road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games. UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season. Play on FIU to cover |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 31 m | Show | |
The pundits and media love how well RB Christian Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 59 m | Show | |
The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West.
NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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10-08-23 | Texans +2 v. Falcons | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center Entering this game he is off a 280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a 30-6 thumping of the Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texans to cover |
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10-08-23 | Giants +11.5 v. Dolphins | 16-31 | Loss | -112 | 89 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect with them. NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Giants to cover |
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10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 53 m | Show | |
I know the Panthers have not won this season, but they held two of their four opponents to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24 as underdogs against the NFC North . Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show | |
After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Steelers to cover |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the recent past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10 and are 6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines with the average winning ppg diff clicking in at +19.5 PPG. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
The Cougars star junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game, and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars. Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State Washington States football program is 17-0 ATS L/17 in games following a SU underdog victory . CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington State to cover |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 39 m | Show | |
Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all 3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7 as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is also just 1-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 38 m | Show | |
Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. The Longhorns are 1-5 SU all time when in. a battle of undefeated teams. TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma to cover |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just 42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. Play on Illinois to cover |
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10-05-23 | Bears +7 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Bears to cover |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +1.5 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Carroll is 15-25 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-01-23 | Raiders +5.5 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 17 m | Show | |
Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on on defense this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42 in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 138 h 1 m | Show | |
10-01-23 | Commanders +8 v. Eagles | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 89 h 8 m | Show | |
Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4 v. Panthers | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season . Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-01-23 | Rams +1 v. Colts | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks to some strong D and fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are 0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, . Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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10-01-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta owns a 2-0 ATS record in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS vs the Jags. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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09-30-23 | Ball State v. Western Michigan | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 127 h 33 m | Show | |
Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley, who has registered 4 TDS already this season while averaging 125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a 5 interceptions and just 3 TDs. Ball State is losing the stats battles an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping 40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Michigan |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 80 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-30-23 | South Florida v. Navy -3 | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see Navy at their very best.
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota -12 | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 4 m | Show | |
Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-30-23 | Penn State -27 v. Northwestern | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said, Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. Play on Penn State to cover |