|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-18-17||Nevada v. San Diego State -16||23-42||Win||100||87 h 60 m||Show|
Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg. The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and 12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5. Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.
CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.
CFB home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.
Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||NC State +2 v. Wake Forest||24-30||Loss||-110||24 h 3 m||Show|
No. 19 North Carolina State wants this game badly and is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43 win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.
WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Rice v. Old Dominion -8.5||21-24||Loss||-110||80 h 47 m||Show|
I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.
CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Pittsburgh +15.5 v. Virginia Tech||14-20||Win||100||66 h 12 m||Show|
After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.
CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .
Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Cincinnati -3 v. East Carolina||20-48||Loss||-120||100 h 44 m||Show|
E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg during their 2017 campaign , and also a offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life, and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)
E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of 11.2 ppg.
E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia||28-14||Win||100||72 h 18 m||Show|
Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile, West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans, and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference opposition going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.
CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3||38-41||Win||100||60 h 41 m||Show|
Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.
W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-15-17||Eastern Michigan +3.5 v. Miami-OH||27-24||Win||100||35 h 11 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D, has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.
HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||TCU v. Oklahoma -7||20-38||Win||100||111 h 30 m||Show|
Oklahoma now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State. While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides. Here in their own building in front of what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.
By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.
OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.
CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)
Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover
|11-11-17||Tennessee +11 v. Missouri||17-50||Loss||-105||122 h 44 m||Show|
Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot. I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.
TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.
Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 meetings in this series.
Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.
Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||New Mexico +19 v. Texas A&M||14-55||Loss||-110||61 h 7 m||Show|
Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew a huge 34 point lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it. I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number. Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.
In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.
TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.
Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||USC v. Colorado +13.5||38-24||Loss||-104||78 h 48 m||Show|
USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.
CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||120 h 39 m||Show|
Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week. Take the points.
AUBURN is 13-1 ATS L/14 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.
CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.
Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||Iowa +13 v. Wisconsin||14-38||Loss||-115||119 h 4 m||Show|
Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only 3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on Iowa having the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10 after a cover as a double digit favorite.
Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.
IOWA is 25-5 ATS L/30 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.
Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||UL-Lafayette v. Ole Miss -18.5||22-50||Win||100||113 h 55 m||Show|
My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||16 h 44 m||Show|
NC State are off two hard fought grueling affairs vs Notre Dame and than Clemson last week. Now deflated and in a let down situation they look vulnerable vs a rested Boston College team that is playing its best football in years.The Eagles destroyed and owned Florida State 35-3 before their bye week, beating the Seminoles for the first time since 2009 and becoming the first team to hold FSU without a touchdown since 2008 and the first to keep the 'Noles under 10 points since '09. Also N.C. State's has had problems in the past vs BC . The Wolfpack offense has also struggled vs Boston College. Considering the Wolfpack are dealing with nagging injuries to running back Nyheim Hines ( ankle injury ) and versatile back Jaylen Samuels missing plays after he was banged up in the game against Clemson, things look dire for them this week, and if they get the win it won't come easy and they won't I'm betting cover the number as road favs
NC STATE is 7-20 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 7 points or less.
CFB Road favorites NC State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-31 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 80% for bettors.
Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-10-17||Washington v. Stanford +6||22-30||Win||100||64 h 44 m||Show|
Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.
CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on Stanford to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-09-17||Georgia Southern +17.5 v. Appalachian State||6-27||Loss||-110||48 h 57 m||Show|
App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this.
APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after the first month of the season .
CFB Home favorites like App State - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-08-17||Toledo v. Ohio +4||10-38||Win||100||23 h 34 m||Show|
The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6 after taking on NIU.
OHIO U is 7-1 ATS in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Central Florida v. SMU +14.5||31-24||Win||100||82 h 53 m||Show|
The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some pretty good teams, even though these said teams are still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.
UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Colorado State -2.5 v. Wyoming||13-16||Loss||-115||121 h 19 m||Show|
Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count, could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.
COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.
Road favorites like Colorado State - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV||23-31||Loss||-110||120 h 3 m||Show|
UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation. Now in another emotional letdown scenario I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and losing to pretty good San Diego State program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.
UNLV is 2-13 ATS L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .
CFB road team Hawaii - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Ole Miss +3.5 v. Kentucky||37-34||Win||100||78 h 7 m||Show|
Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.
KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .
CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Iowa State +2.5 v. West Virginia||16-20||Loss||-105||117 h 43 m||Show|
Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week. Meanwhile, W.Virginia despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.
IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
CFB team like West Virginia - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.
CFB road team like Iowa State - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover
|11-04-17||Charlotte +10 v. Old Dominion||0-6||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)
OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .
|11-04-17||Penn State v. Michigan State +9||24-27||Win||100||72 h 58 m||Show|
Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and 11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)
PENN ST is 2-12 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS L/6 off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.
Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Kansas State +4 v. Texas Tech||42-35||Win||100||121 h 51 m||Show|
Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and 3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.
KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game.
CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||UMass +32 v. Mississippi State||23-34||Win||100||41 h 17 m||Show|
Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week. The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life, winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.
Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -13 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again this week vs Indiana.
I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can bet they will be awake and ready to make a statement vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.
Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on a repeat performance is on today's agenda.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.
CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-03-17||Marshall +8 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||59 h 31 m||Show|
Marshall after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.
Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.
MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 15 m||Show|
Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot.
Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-02-17||Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo||17-27||Loss||-110||35 h 44 m||Show|
Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening. It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 away facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.
N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry.
CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||San Diego State -9 v. Hawaii||28-7||Win||100||86 h 38 m||Show|
San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.
San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games.
Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||26-29||Win||100||107 h 28 m||Show|
Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting be the theme here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win badly , will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.
In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.
TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46 in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.
Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||New Mexico -1.5 v. Wyoming||3-42||Loss||-110||106 h 21 m||Show|
This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING). ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.
NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .
CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||105 h 20 m||Show|
I am finally a believer in Miss State , after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers. Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.
CFB road team like Miss State - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.
Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Minnesota +8 v. Iowa||10-17||Win||100||83 h 15 m||Show|
These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .
CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact in OT are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.
CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Utah v. Oregon +3.5||20-41||Win||100||80 h 6 m||Show|
Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||NC State +7.5 v. Notre Dame||14-35||Loss||-105||104 h 35 m||Show|
Highly ranked Notre Dame is off a huge win vs USC last week and will now be in a letdown situation this week vs a well rested NC State football program off a bye week and on a 6 game win streak . I expect the Wolfpack will be sky high for this game, while the Irish will have a hard time rising to the same energy levels they exhibited last week, which gives credence to my recommendation that we take the points here in this spot.
Note: When these teams played last season the Wolfpack to a 10-3 decision at home as 2.5 point chalk.
From a historical program ATS standpoint: NC STATE is 31-14 ATS L/45 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
NC STATE is 24-11 ATS L/35 in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.NOTRE DAME is 6-23 ATS L/29 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is 19-34 ATS L/53 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
CFB Road underdogs like NC State - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 44-16 ATS L/50 dating back 10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on North Carolina State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Appalachian State -3 v. UMass||27-30||Loss||-115||103 h 43 m||Show|
UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their opponent napping, and for a upset under dog win/cover.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game.
Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
CFB Underdogs of 3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Air Force +10.5 v. Colorado State||45-28||Win||100||100 h 34 m||Show|
Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.
Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.
CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||San Jose State +13.5 v. BYU||20-41||Loss||-105||99 h 19 m||Show|
Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.
SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing 230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||99 h 54 m||Show|
Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D, so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said, I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.
Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
CFB home team like Pittsburgh - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-27-17||Tulsa +10 v. SMU||34-38||Win||100||110 h 53 m||Show|
Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU, while the Mustangs are just 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.
TULSA is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.
Meanwhile, SMU is off hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here. SMU is 2-12 ATS after a win by 3 or less points .
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-27-17||Florida State -3 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-120||62 h 20 m||Show|
Jimbo Fisher better get his Seminoles rolling , and knows he needs a win here if he plans on keeping his job. I know Boston College has looked good of late in surprisingly explosive wins vs Louisville and Virginia , but , Fisher's Seminoles have owned this series in the past winning 7-0 straight SU , with this being lowest asking price the lines-makers have laid on the board during that run. I like Boston College feistiness and their D, and have been outstanding for a long time, but their offensive explosions of late, I'm betting are an anomaly that will end tonight .
Florida State has won its only 2 road games this season vs Wake Forest and Duke, teams with similar defenses as BCs , and I'm betting on similar results here tonight. Both those wins came by a TD.
FSU is 5-0 ATS L/5 weekday games and BC is 0-5 ATS L/5 weekday games.
FLORIDA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games against conference opponents.FLORIDA ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games .
Play on Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-26-17||Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7||27-30||Loss||-110||36 h 56 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT. That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.
N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Fresno State +7.5 v. San Diego State||27-3||Win||100||75 h 27 m||Show|
A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).
SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.
Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Wyoming +14 v. Boise State||14-24||Win||100||76 h 52 m||Show|
Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense, and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.
WYOMING is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Arizona v. California +3||45-44||Win||100||61 h 33 m||Show|
Both these football programs have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the cover. It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot. The line ORIGINALLY OPENED this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.
Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Michigan +9.5 v. Penn State||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 53 m||Show|
Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.
PENN ST is 2-14 ATS L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.
Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.
Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Wake Forest +7 v. Georgia Tech||24-38||Loss||-130||74 h 29 m||Show|
The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency. Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.
WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and 16-4 ATS L/20 in road games after a bye week.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.
Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||UAB v. Charlotte +7.5||24-25||Win||100||59 h 39 m||Show|
Charlotte is a lower tier team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26 in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)
It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)
In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.
Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Oregon +7 v. UCLA||14-31||Loss||-130||56 h 55 m||Show|
Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events , but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role . Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.
Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
CFB road team like the Ducks - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Kentucky +11.5 v. Mississippi State||7-45||Loss||-110||71 h 33 m||Show|
Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.
|10-21-17||Central Florida v. Navy +7.5||31-21||Loss||-110||55 h 57 m||Show|
This is a big time ACC battle , featuring Navy hosting undefeated UCF.
The Knights have bashed opponents with reckless abandon this season. Personally I feel their using up to much precious energy, and not pacing themselves, which will be a problem as this season progresses and here today, against a punishing team. With that said, I expect a very feisty Navy squad that leads the FBS in time of possession to pound away at UCF relentlessly today, with ground attack and keep themselves in a position to pull of the SU upset. Last week Navy;s Zach Abey usually sure handed turnover problems ended the Middies undefeated season vs Memphis ( 6 TOs) , but this week I'm betting things return to the norm, and he remains responsible.
NAVY is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.NAVY is 10-2 ATS L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Navy's is 17-4 SU and 3-1 ATS as dog in conference play since joining the AAC , and I'm betting they add to those positive numbers here today. Navy HC Niamatalolo is 6-2 SU off a loss and a perfect 8-0 ATS.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Arizona State +10 v. Utah||30-10||Win||100||54 h 6 m||Show|
Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.
Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
CFB team like Arizona State - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +3||20-17||Push||0||68 h 57 m||Show|
E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team than that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this Broncos team is not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.
E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
|10-21-17||Tulsa v. Connecticut +6||14-20||Win||100||68 h 59 m||Show|
Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.
TULSA is 8-21 ATS L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15 in home games off an upset win as an underdog.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-20-17||Marshall -2.5 v. Middle Tennessee State||38-10||Win||100||51 h 17 m||Show|
Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion
. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.
|10-19-17||Memphis v. Houston -2.5||42-38||Loss||-120||38 h 44 m||Show|
Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.
MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.
Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Washington v. Arizona State +17.5||7-13||Win||100||53 h 25 m||Show|
Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.
ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games when playing with 2 weeks .
Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .
Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Michigan State v. Minnesota +3||30-27||Push||0||129 h 8 m||Show|
Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.
It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Utah +13 v. USC||27-28||Win||100||32 h 58 m||Show|
Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured. However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.
Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||UTSA v. North Texas +3||26-29||Win||100||81 h 38 m||Show|
Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.
NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Georgia State +7.5 v. UL-Monroe||47-37||Win||100||79 h 47 m||Show|
LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg. Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.
ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.
GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents and is 12-3 ATS L/15 in road games.
Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Charlotte +16.5 v. Western Kentucky||14-45||Loss||-110||77 h 53 m||Show|
Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue has lost their offensive effectiveness and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count. Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is just 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .
Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Navy +3.5 v. Memphis||27-30||Win||100||77 h 36 m||Show|
Last week Navy unleashed its option attack out of the shotgun against Air Force and rushed for 471 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 victory. Considering Memphis ranks 93rd in the nation against the run its obvious to me that Memphis coach Mike Norvell and his team are in trouble this week.Navy won last year's meeting 42-28, rushing for 532 yards in a key conference victory that propelled the Midshipmen to the American Athletic Conference Western Division title and repeat performance is not out of the question here.
NAVY is 11-2 ATS L/3 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game and 9-21 ATS after a win by 28 or more points and 7-26 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened in a lopsided win vs UConn last time out.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Auburn v. LSU +7.5||23-27||Win||100||75 h 19 m||Show|
LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.
With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.
I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.
Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.
LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.
CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.
Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Buffalo||14-13||Loss||-110||44 h 9 m||Show|
Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.
BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival
.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS L/112 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road chalk are 42-4 SU this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||UNLV +7.5 v. Air Force||30-34||Win||100||75 h 15 m||Show|
Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.
AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.
CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.
Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||BYU v. Mississippi State -23.5||10-35||Win||100||72 h 7 m||Show|
Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia , and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested chalk off their bye week.
Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.
Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-13-17||Clemson v. Syracuse +22.5||24-27||Win||100||58 h 52 m||Show|
Kelly Bryant the Clemson QB no matter what the media is saying, is not 100% for this game with a ankle injury. I'm going do a little speculating, by predicting he may not see that much game time, as HC Swinney will not want to jeopardize his stud pivot, and risk further injury to his already tender ankle. I 'm betting if he dresses , that he may just be their as a backup if things go wrong, and if he starts, he could easily get pulled and rested, if the Tigers are up big. With that said, either scenario bodes well for the Syracuse Orange covering this DD number as home dogs.
Clemson beat Syracuse 37-27 last time they played here at the Carrier Dome, in game that was much closer than many pundits expected.
The Orange are 5-2 ATS L/7 at home as 14 point or more dogs while the Tigers are 0-8 ATS L/8 as AWAY favorites of 18 or more points and have covered just 2 of their L/8 off a DD home conference win , which happened vs Wake Forest last week. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Orange are 4-0 ATS L/4 vs. a team with a winning record..
Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-11-17||South Alabama +17 v. Troy||19-8||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as big DD favorites. It must also be noted that none of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.
S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.
Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Stanford v. Utah +7||23-20||Win||100||131 h 42 m||Show|
Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile, the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.
UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.
Play on the Utah Utes to cover
Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28
|10-07-17||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +12.5||38-17||Loss||-110||81 h 33 m||Show|
Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.
In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)
I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Alabama v. Texas A&M +27||27-19||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive. With that said, I'm betting that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)
CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.
Play on Texas A&M to cover
|10-07-17||Kansas State +4 v. Texas||34-40||Loss||-110||120 h 16 m||Show|
Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium. .K-State
defense remains it strong point and has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.
K-State has run over teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.
K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.
CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||SMU +7 v. Houston||22-35||Loss||-115||34 h 6 m||Show|
I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.
|10-07-17||Southern Miss +13.5 v. UTSA||31-29||Win||100||79 h 10 m||Show|
Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games, until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.
Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Colorado State v. Utah State +8||27-14||Loss||-106||76 h 2 m||Show|
Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.
Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.
UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Maryland +30.5 v. Ohio State||14-62||Loss||-110||71 h 49 m||Show|
The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3), I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.
OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.
CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||LSU +3.5 v. Florida||17-16||Win||100||71 h 12 m||Show|
LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win. With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.
LSU is 27-13 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Miami-FL v. Florida State +3.5||24-20||Loss||-115||68 h 10 m||Show|
Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane cancellations are taking time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are 23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups in this spot.
Play on Florida State to cover
|10-07-17||Penn State v. Northwestern +15.5||31-7||Loss||-110||72 h 48 m||Show|
Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games, and with HC Frankilin 3-11-1 ATS and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites
. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.
PENN ST is 8-19 ATS L/27 in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.
Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||34-10||Win||100||64 h 23 m||Show|
East Carolina's defense is no better than going against a bunch of pylons and have allowed 34 or more points or more a game n 9 straight tilts dating back to last season. So yes, even Temples pedestrian offense should tee off today, and usually solid D, will provide enough key stops to get us the win and cover in this spot.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game. TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS L/11 against conference opponents .TEMPLE is 11-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.E CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS L/17 in all games.
Play on Temple to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Wake Forest +22.5 v. Clemson||14-28||Win||100||41 h 3 m||Show|
Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.
Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points
. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.
CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-06-17||Boise State v. BYU +9||24-7||Loss||-110||63 h 42 m||Show|
BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.
BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.
BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +4.5||25-39||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and Murray State. Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless 54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.
Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Nevada +10.5 v. Fresno State||21-41||Loss||-110||109 h 36 m||Show|
Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated. Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
NEVADA is 8-1 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
Play on Nevada to cover
|09-30-17||Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5||31-17||Loss||-110||83 h 31 m||Show|
Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.
CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.
Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Florida Atlantic -2.5||20-38||Win||100||105 h 10 m||Show|
Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak I am betting their ready to notch a home victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up. If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on Florida Atlantic to cover
|09-30-17||Troy +21 v. LSU||24-21||Win||100||82 h 35 m||Show|
LSU looks like they have problems and HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs. As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.
LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14 in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.
Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5||10-17||Win||100||77 h 33 m||Show|
Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.
Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Buffalo -7 v. Kent State||27-13||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since. Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls team comes out here with their helmets on fire as they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.
KENT ST is 0-9 ATS after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and is 0-10 ATS after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.
CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Florida State -7 v. Wake Forest||26-19||Push||0||49 h 47 m||Show|
Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma, vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.
FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons.
Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Vanderbilt +10 v. Florida||24-38||Loss||-110||123 h 49 m||Show|
Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money. The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Colorado State -7 v. Hawaii||51-21||Win||100||74 h 58 m||Show|
Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.
COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.
CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||USC v. Washington State +4||27-30||Win||100||73 h 15 m||Show|
USC( 4-0) No.5 enter this game ranked very highly , thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.
WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||BYU -3 v. Utah State||24-40||Loss||-115||80 h 44 m||Show|
After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.
Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||Miami-FL v. Duke +7||31-6||Loss||-115||69 h 31 m||Show|
Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection