Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5 |
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08-24-23 | Steelers v. Falcons +5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5 |
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08-19-23 | Titans v. Vikings +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5 |
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08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5 |
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08-17-23 | Browns +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5 |
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08-12-23 | Eagles +5 v. Ravens | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5 |
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08-11-23 | Commanders +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-21-22 | Eagles v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The weather is a concern in Cleveland for this one Sunday but hopefully they get this one in even if the start time of the game is delayed. Really like the Browns a lot here as the Eagles recent history of preseason ineptitude continued last week at home when they blew an early 14-0 lead by getting blown out 24-7 the rest of the way. Philly is now just 1-6-1 SU last 8 preseason games. The Browns, on the other hand, are off another preseason win last week and are now 7-1 SU last 8 preseason games. That one loss was by just a single point so, at the current line of +2.5 on this game...Cleveland would be 8-0 ATS last 8 preseason games. Dobbs and Rosen combined for 16 of 20 passing in last week's win for the Browns so the news about QB Watson really does not have any bearing on how a preseason game like this plays out anyway. Also, the Browns defense played well last week with QB pressure (and multiple sacks) plus notching two interceptions. In a potentially ugly-weather game I am happy to back the home dog here. 10* CLEVELAND +2.5 |
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08-14-22 | Vikings +5 v. Raiders | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - This line just too high in my opinion. The Raiders not only being asked to win this game but to win it by a sizable margin. Note that though Vegas won last week in the HOF Game that was against a dreadful Jaguars team that has now been outscored 51 to 24 in two preseason games this season and has lost 8 of last 9 preseason games. Now Raiders laying sizable points against a Vikings team that has seen its last 7 games feature only 1 game that was a loss by more than 4 points for them. Vegas head coach McDaniels came from a Patriots organization use to winning. Feel certain there is a little more hunger for the younger O'Connell here a little more eager. He came from the Rams organization but prior to that was mired in the Washington organization. I feel he and the Vikes are being undervalued here. 10* MINNESOTA +4.5 |
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08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - It is a new year. Just like we saw the Hall of Fame Game go over the total after a history of being dominated by unders, there is a changing of the guard underway. The Ravens have long been known for preseason success as coach John Harbaugh has shown a hunger to win even in the games that do not count. However, this Baltimore team is not what it once was and, even if the Ravens win this game, I expect the margin of victory to be 3 or less points. Note that Baltimore has been a good team for many years in regular season too for sure, not just preseason. But last year they had an 8-9 SU record in the regular season and went 2-9 ATS as a favorite! The Titans went 12-5 SU last season and are now 23-10 SU last two regular seasons SU. As for ATS records, Tennessee went 6-1 ATS as an underdog last season and is now 9-2 ATS the last seasons as an underdog. Again, this is OF COURSE not a regular season game but I see value here with a high quality team catching more than a field goal against a team trending the wrong direction that is over-valued because of past pre-season successes. Like I said in the lead-in for this one, it is a new year! Don't get me wrong, Ravens still a high-quality team but so too are Titans and big value with the points here in my opinion. 10* TENNESSEE +3.5 |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +3.5 | 37-3 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #114 Saturday 8* Washington Football Team +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 6 ET - The Ravens have won 19 straight preseason games to tie an NFL record set by, of course, Vince Lombardi's Packers. While I know Baltimore head coach Harbaugh has a special hunger for winning and would like to win this game, he will not risk injury to key players in doing so. That said, and in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the points with Washington. Keep in mind that, based on the +3.5 available as of early game day morning, the Ravens could win this game and yet we still get the cash. Statistically Washington has been better than expected in the preseason and that is even with allowing a very late 91 yard TD run in their first game of the preseason. In fact, had that "meaningless" run not happened in the final minute of a game the Patriots were winning by 2 points, Washington would have some of the best defensive stats in the entire league in this preseason. Either way, Washington has looked quite solid on both sides of the ball statistically and I feel strongly that they will be tough to put away here. Keep in mind they are 1-1 in this preseason and the loss would have been by just 2 points were it not for that big late run. Also, the Ravens first win in the preseason was by just 3 points and, if you have noticed recently, there have been an awful lot of late comebacks for dogs. It is just hard to cover numbers in the preseason and I like siding with the points and feel we have extra value here because the home dog has been solid this preseason and is going to give the Ravens all they can handle here. I say the Baltimore streak ends here but I will grab the points as added insurance just in case. 8* WASHINGTON +3.5 |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The more I looked at this game the more I liked it. The Jaguars have a bad recent preseason history but keep in mind they now have a new coach with Urban Meyer calling the shots. This team is hungry to improve and they certainly played a "cleaner" game last week than the Saints did. Yes both teams are off losses but Jacksonville turned the ball over just once while New Orleans had 6 turnovers in their game against the Ravens. The overall trajectory of these teams is going opposite directions. Of course I am not saying that in a regular season game the Jags are better than the Saints. I am not saying that all. But the point is that the Saints were 12-4 last season but Drew Brees has retired and this team lost a lot of defensive talent from last year's roster. This team will be on the decline this season. As for the Jaguars, off a 1-15 season, of course the only way to go is up but truly this team could be respectable this season and had a strong draft and there is some positive energy within this Jacksonville organization right now. With how sloppy New Orleans was last week, I feel we have a good shot at an outright upset here for the Jaguars and I certainly like the value with the points. Keep in mind, we have seen a good amount of upsets in week 2 of the preseason as well as some underdog ATS covers without notching the upset. Good value here getting a handful of points given all of the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE +4 |
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08-21-21 | Bills +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - NFLX 10* Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - Both teams off wins last week and Chicago did win by 7 while Buffalo won by just 1. However, I was impressed by the Bills defense too and note that they have now won 6 straight preseason games. They opened up as the favorite in this match-up in the early lines but are now a 4.5 point dog. Maybe, after a 6-0 SU win, the Bills do finally drop an NFLX game but that does not mean they do not cover. Many NFLX games are tight and, in fact, Chicago entered this season 3-6 SU the last 2 preseasons and 1 of the wins was by just a single point. The fact is there is too much value here regardless of the plan of how coaches use starters here, etc. Buffalo is the better team and has better depth and that will key the victory in crunch time as the Bills get the job done here. 10* BUFFALO +4.5 |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #404 Friday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8 ET - Both teams won by identical 19-16 scores last week but I like the fact that Arizona's came on a momentum-building last-second field goal. Also, the Cardinals are now getting 3 points as a home dog here. I know that Kansas City is planning to run their starters quite a bit in the first half of this game but this still a Chiefs team that had won just 1 of last 4 road preseason games prior to last week's tight win. It is the back-ups that often decide the final outcome of preseason games. Also, KC went just 1-3 overall in the most recent preseason. The Cardinals have now won 2 of last 3 preseason home games and offer solid value as an underdog here. Arizona proved last week they will push hard to win a preseason game and I look for them to get the job done again this week. If they do fall short the +3 could prove to be great value. 5 of the 16 games last week were decided by 3 or less points. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #402 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 vs New England Patriots @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles blew a 13-0 late 1st half lead last week and lost 24-16 as they are outscored 24-3 the rest of the way. Philadelphia is likely to struggle in the regular season this year but keep in mind this is preseason. With a first year head coach who demands plenty from his players, I look for a much better effort this week after the ugly 2nd half last week for the Eagles. As for the Patriots, a long TD run is what sealed their victory last week as they were clinging a 2-point lead at the time. The key here is that other than that run, one could easily argue that Washington was the much better team in that game. The Pats, not including that long TD run, were outgained by 138 yards. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS the last 2 preseasons when off a home win and they allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in those 3 games. Look for them to struggle again on the road in that role here and the Eagles bounce back from last week's second half debacle. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts -3 | 18-21 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #134 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - Hopefully we will be losing this pick at halftime. All kidding aside, this has been an unreal start to the post-season as 3 of my 4 picks saw my team with the lead at halftime and the combined score in our favor in those 3 games was 32 to 10. As faithful followers know, we won NONE of those 3 games. Unlike all of those games that "flipped the script" in the 2nd half, of course the lone pick out of my four that was losing at the half did NOT turn around in the 2nd half. In fact, maybe it is best to hope for a tie score in this one at the half! But I digress so back to the keys here as we look to get a well-deserved win...the Colts are the better team and the better team and I love the QB battle going on between Eason and Ehrlinger for the #2 spot behind the already-injured Wentz. Both Eason and Ehrlinger will be "turned loose" a bit in this one by an offensive-minded head coach, Frank Reich and these guys are expected to play 3 quarters combined. Then, in the 4th quarter it is expected to be Brett Hundley and he has NFL starter experience from his time with the Packers. In most recent preseason in 2019 he completed 68% of his passes and threw for 2 touchdowns with no INT's. I like the Colts QB rotation throughout this game and, as the better overall team and with the coaching edge in this game too and better team depth, the home team should win by a comfortable margin here. The Panthers have solid starters but many will not even see the field here and they do not have the depth the Colts do and also I have a lot of concerns about Carolina's offensive line play. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -3 |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Bears | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears have all the hype with Justin Fields at QB now but this is still a preseason battle likely to be close and plus in the only preseason HC Brian Flores has had with the Dolphins they went 3-1 in 2019 and the only loss was by 2 points. He likes to do some different schemes even in preseason and play around with things so he could keep this inconsistent Bears offense a bit off-balance all game long no matter which units are out there. That said, Miami is also off a 10-6 season has some decent team depth and this is a Bears team whose defense has not been the same in recent years. Also, note that Chicago has gone only 3-6 SU in preseason the last two years and 1 of those wins was by just a single point. Too much underdog value to pass up on here. 8* MIAMI +3.5 |
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08-12-21 | Steelers v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #106 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (PK) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles had a horrible season last year and are likely destined for another rough one this year. However, Philly does have a new coach and a young one at that. Nick Sirianni will be hungrier than most in the preseason and is going to demand a high compete level from his team even in a meaningless game. This Eagles team is going to struggle in the regular season barring a miracle turnaround because they need to time to jell and have had major roster turnover in recent seasons. However, in the preseason they could be a bit of a surprise given all of the above factors. The Steelers do have a solid preseason history including going in recent seasons but still went just 1-1 on the road in each of the last two preseasons. Coming off a win over the Cowboys in the HOF Game last week makes this road game even less important for the Steelers. As for the Eagles, new head coach Sirianni and company will be desperate for something to latch onto early in the year and that includes preseason where many roster battles are going on. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Steelers | 3-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
TV Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #101 Thursday 8* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers in HOF Game @ Canton, OH @ 8 ET - The Steelers have a recent history of ATS success in preseason action so I totally understand the line here. However, I think the Cowboys are coming in a little extra hungry in this pre-season and I like their QB rotation. Of course pre-season, and especially an "extra game" like this that goes early is all about fighting for roster spots, etc. But with new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn calling the shots for Dallas D there could be a little extra aggression on that side of the ball. This Cowboys D has a lot to prove here and I feel they step up well throughout this game. The HOF games are known for being low-scoring battles and that means even some extra value in this one with having the points on your side. By the way, the Cowboys were just 2-2 SU in most recent pre-season but one of the losses was by just 2 points. The Steelers are just 2-2 SU in road pre-season games last 2 years plus one of their home wins last season was by just 2 points. Having the points could come in handy here but also would not be surprised to see the hungrier team, with a lot of roster battles going on, get the upset win here. Grab the points. 8* DALLAS +2.5 |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals +6 v. Vikings | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #267 Saturday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The betting markets are enamored with the Vikings here as this line got driven up from a 4.5 to a 7 before settling in at a 6. Yes the Vikes have a great preseason history under head coach Mike Zimmer but lets not forget they went only 3-5 ATS the past two preseasons. Also, they were 0-2 ATS in home preseason games in BOTH 2017 and 2018. That said, after a big win and cover last week at home, I do not expect a repeat this week. The Cardinals have a first year head coach in Kliff Klingsbury and new head coaches tend to be a good "play on" team in preseason action. I am not saying the Cards win this game but I expect them to stay inside the inflated number and, certainly an outright upset would not be a surprise. Arizona went 3-2 SU in preseason games played away from the home the past two seasons and one of those losses came by just 2 points. I look for them to hang in this game for the full sixty as well! In their last 4 true road games, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS and the only SU/ATS loss was a meaningless week 4 game in 2017. Week 3 always carries more meaning and the Cardinals have covered this game each of the past two seasons while the Vikings have not. Minnesota drops to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Give me the big points with the underdog Cardinals. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-23-19 | Bills -2 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #265 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8 ET - In regular season NFL over the past two decades I have enjoyed plenty of success fading line moves. Knowing when and why to go contrarian to the market moves is a key to beating regular season NFL games. However, preseason NFL is an entirely different animal and the line moves, especially in 2019, have proven to go the right way more often than not. That said, despite a move here (which of course is generally sharp and not square money when it comes to preseason), I still see great value with the Bills laying as little as a -2 in this match-up. When you see a 2-0 preseason team getting the action over an 0-2 team in preseason you know it is sharp money as, generally speaking, backing the winless teams in Week 3 of preseason over undefeated teams is a smart play. The key to this match-up is the Lions defense has been atrocious in this pre-season. The Bills defense has been much better. Also, the Lions are now 1-5 in preseason games under head coach Matt Patricia. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 preseason road games. Buffalo's QB rotation has been performing much better than Detroit's counterparts. Also, history is not on the side of the Lions here either as they are actually 4-10 ATS in preseason action when they enter a game off two or more consecutive preseason losses. Look for the Bills to improve to 5-1 ATS in preseason games under head coach Sean McDermott the past 3 years combined. 10* BUFFALO |
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08-16-19 | Bears +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #413 Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 7:30 ET - This line opened up as low as a pick'em. This is despite the fact the Giants are at home, playing their final home game of the preseason, coming off a win, and have a QB battle going on. The Bears enter off a double digit loss at home, now are on the road, and have a less impressive QB situation in terms of the back-ups. That said, this line has been deemed a major mistake by the markets and has been driven up to a 2.5 on the Giants after opening up as low as a pick'em. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds makers and I am going contrarian, as I so often do, and fading the market move. The Bears defense, back-ups mind you, were the key reason Chicago lost last week's game as they were outscored 17-3 after half-time. Teams respond after a game like that and I expect the Bears to have a little more "fire in the belly" in the second half of this game. Of course it is the 2nd half of these games that so often determine the outcome of these preseason match-ups. That said, the fact the Bears starters are likely to see little action here, with many sitting, is not the key to the outcome. Chicago is 5-1 ATS run as an underdog in preseason games. Also, as a road dog of 3 or less points the past two seasons, the Bears went a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Giants are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games in the preseason and they entered this season 0-4 ATS as a favorite in the past preseasons. Give me the road dog here! 10* CHICAGO |
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08-10-19 | Rams +5 v. Raiders | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8 ET - The Raiders opened up as 2.5 point favorites in the earliest of lines that popped up globally on this game. Oakland then got be up to as high as a 5.5 before settling in at a -5 as of very early Saturday morning. The perception is that Gruden and the Raiders care more than McVay and the Rams. However, Gruden was with Oakland last year when they lost to Los Angeles in the preseason. Of course McVay was with the Rams then just as he was also in 2017 when LA also beat the Raiders in the preseason. Lets not forget that Oakland won only 4 regular season games last year. This season the Raiders are again projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. That said, with depth being an important factor in preseason outcomes, just how good can Oakland's depth be? Truly it is not o the level of the Rams. That said, even if one could surmise that the Raiders are the hungrier team here will that really translate to the less talented team and the team with less depth wining this game in convincing fashion? I think not! Give me the generous points being offered to the Rams as I would also like to note that LA is 2-1 in weeks 1 to 3 in each of the last two preseasons both SU and ATS and that included a loss by just 2 points. Remember week 4 of preseason is always a truly meaningless week so lets take that out of the equation. So the point is that the Rams 6 preseason games under McVay played in Weeks 1 through 3 of his two seasons have resulted in just ONE loss by more than two points! Give me the team that "supposedly" doesn't care here and "supposedly" will get blown out despite all the facts stated above! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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08-08-19 | Falcons +4.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #259 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - If you listen to the "experts" the Falcons have no chance here. The line has moved after it opened up at -2.5 and has gone to a -4.5 on Miami in this game. I got absolutely ripped off when I used the Falcons in last week's HOF Game. They outgained the Broncos 261 to 188 yards in that game and were a +3 dog that also forced two fumbles. However, a late game interception (their only turnover in the game) followed by a pair of 4th down conversions for Denver in their game-deciding final minutes drive did me in. Keep in mind the Broncos won the game on a 4th and 14 play after already previously converting a 4th down play in that drive. Everyone who had Denver was very lucky. The Falcons defense played a great game and I expect that to be the case again this week. That said I am happy to grab the generous points being offered here. Yes, Atlanta has a poor SU/ATS record in preseason under Dan Quinn but we're still talking about fading the Dolphins here and getting 4.5 points in doing so! Sure Miami has a rookie coach (generally a good play on spot in preseason) and they have a QB battle going on. But how good can a roster be (including for depth) when they are projected to be the WORST team in the NFL this coming season? The fact that Miami also blasted the Falcons in Atlanta in the preseason last year only adds fuel to the fire for the Falcons back-ups in this one. I like their solid and deep defense against a bad Miami team. Keep in mind the Dolphins went 0-3 SU in their other 3 preseason games last season. Also, Miami was a mediocre 2-2 SU the year before in preseason and one of those wins came by just 3 points. That means in the past TWO years the Dolphins only have TWO wins by more than 3 points in preseason action. Give me the points and don't expect any game-ending nonsense to burn us this week! 10* ATLANTA |
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08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons +3 | 14-10 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #242 Thursday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8 ET - Atlanta was as high as a -2 favorite when lines first came out. Now the Falcons are as high as +3 underdog. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta doesn't have a good history of winning in preseason under head coach Dan Quinn and the fact that Denver has a new head coach. However, Vic Fangio certainly isn't new to the NFL. The Broncos head coach has been a defensive coordinator for multiple decades at the NFL level. In other words, the fact that first year head coaches tend to get backed by the betting markets in the preseason has simply led to extra line value in a case like this. Are the Broncos (and HC Fangio) really that much hungrier for a win here? Truly the answer is no! This is preseason and simply a chance for teams to work on things and evaluate personnel. That is particularly the case in an early-season (and extra) preseason contest like the Hall of Fame Game. That said, I am happy to take the underdog here and fade the line movement. In my opinion, the odds makers had it right with the original line set on this game and I am grabbing the extra line value with the Falcons. 8* ATLANTA |
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08-30-18 | Redskins +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #111 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - With the Ravens RG III having a shot to go against his former Redskins teammates and with Baltimore having a chance at an undefeated preseason of course they are going to go all out here and play most all of the starters for most all of the game in an attempt to blow away Washington. Of course I am being facetious here but this is truly an absolutely insane line move that has taken place here. This is week 4 of the preseason. No one cares about this week. Yes there are a few final roster battles going on but, at the end of the day, this is a very unimportant game. That said, where is the drive and the motivation for the Ravens to win this game by a full TD or more? It truly is not there. Of course RG III will want to play well here but what about the supporting cast. Also, how much motivation is it really when it is still preseason? Also, you don't think the Redskins want to contain Griffin too no matter whom is on the field? This line, going from -1.5 all the way up to as high as a -7 as of Tuesday, is simply out of whack. In fact, there is another key element here that also is to the advantage of the undervalued underdog. That factor is that the Ravens, by virtue of having played in the NFL Hall of Fame Game, will be playing their 5th game of the preseason. The last 8 teams in that situation have 0 ATS wins to show for it. One was a push (line was 3), one had their final game cancelled (Dallas/Houston last year) and the other 6 all failed to cover! You can see why I feel there is great value in the big points (biggest offering on the board) being offered in an otherwise meaningless Thursday preseason finale. Yes I understand about preseason QB rotations too and how these guys have played thusfar in the preseason but also keep in mind the Redskins did outscore the Broncos in the 2nd half last week. That said it is those same reserves that will play a critical role this week as well. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #281 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8 ET - There is a common practice in preseason wagering of backing winless teams and fading undefeated teams. However, most of this week's action is already in the books and note that Baltimore (4-0) won again this week, Miami (0-3) lost again this week, Tennessee (0-3) lost again this week, Philadelphia (0-3) lost again this week, Carolina (3-0) won again this week, Atlanta (0-3) lost again this week, Seattle (0-3) lost again this week. As you can see, not only is the undefeated/winless system worthy of being questioned, there is also merit to the fact that playing on the streaks is the better way to go. Of course the reality is that what matters the most in preseason is the coaches approach to the game and how much they care about winning. That is what ends up being a factor at the betting window too. While the Cardinals Steve Wilks is already 2-0 SU and ATS in his preseason debut, the Cowboys Jason Garrett (even with a rare cover in this preseason) is still an ugly long-term 11-20 ATS in preseason games. Based on the coaching factor as well as what I am hearing/seeing in reports from EACH of these camps on how they're going to play this one, I am backing the small road favorite here. Look for the goose egg to stay on the board in the loss column for Arizona and the win column for Dallas. Remember guys, preseason is a different animal compared to betting the NFL regular season. It is with very good reason that there has been a big move toward the Cardinals here with this line! 10* ARIZONA |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +3 v. Browns | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #251 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8 ET - Contrarian as per usual. The very first numbers that came out on this game actually had the Eagles favored by 2. The line not only moved to the Browns but even as a high as a 4 point favorite. Of course this is a 6-point swing and I love the value on the other side of moves like this. I wanted to wait and make sure the movement settled out before releasing my pick on this one. As of Wednesday mid-day it appears quite settled in the 3-point range and I am going with the Eagles plus the points here. Yes their first-team offense has failed to score a TD yet but you're going to see a different effort this week from the Eagles. This is a dress rehearsal week for NFL teams as the starters are seeing their most action of the preseason this week and likely won't touch the field next week. That said, we're getting the Super Bowl champion Eagles plus a field goal and we're fading a Browns team that is perennially the worst team in the NFL. That said, and with week 3 of the NFL preseason being the one that most closely resembles a regular season game, I like the value with winless Philadelphia plus the points. Yes the Browns went 4-0 last year in the preseason but they also went 0-4 EACH of the prior two years. Keep in mind, even though it is only preseason the Eagles did have to face the Steelers and Patriots in their first two preseason games. Those are two of the top teams in the NFL that certainly are much deeper and talented than the Browns are. The point is that even when the 2nd and 3rd stringers come into this game, the Eagles hold a big edge over the Browns. Doug Pederson entered this year with a 6-2 record in preseason games with Philly. They've already lost 2 games this preseason. In other words, don't look for them to lose another...at least not this week...of course next week is always a "proceed with extreme caution" week! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Game #432 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Colts opened up as a 1.5 point favorite for this game but now are as much as a 1.5 point dog as of early game day morning. Of course the betting markets are jumping all over the Ravens here due to Baltimore's success in the preseason. Indeed Jim Harbaugh has a great record in preseason action but do you really think the odds makers aren't aware of this when they set these lines? The fact is that the betting markets are ignoring the fact that the Colts are very hungry right now with new head coach Frank Reich. They got the win at Seattle last week and, keep in mind, Indianapolis did score 5 times against the Seahawks. The reason for "only" 19 points was 4 field goals and just 1 touchdowns but there is no argument about the fact that the Colts played quite well last week. Now Indy makes their home debut under coach Reich and it is on Monday Night with ESPN cameras rolling. Of course it is still "just" preseason but I have no doubt that, given this situation, the Colts are going to "bring it" tonight. Conversely, the Ravens are off of a blowout win versus the Rams last week (33-7) and teams oftentimes fall short after big rout wins like that. Give me the more motivated team, the hungrier team, the home dog, in this one! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #412 Friday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - There is a common misconception that beating NFLX is just about fading a team that won the prior week or going against a team that lost the prior week. However, take a look at the results so far this preseason with that theory. The Bears lost the Hall of Fame Game and then also lost in Week 1. The Ravens won the Hall of Game and then also won in Week 1. Now, week 2 got underway last night and the Eagles lost again (just like in Week 1) to the Patriots (whom had also won in Week 1). The Packers and Steelers each had won in Week 1 so their match-up last night didn't fit the system. As for the Jets and Redskins, yes theirs fit the system with Jets off of a win and Redskins off of a loss and it did cash as Washington won. However, the Redskins won that game by the slimmest of margins on a game ending field goal. The point being that this system is already just 1-3 with the one win (Washington) certainly unimpressive while the losses with this system (Bears loss was tight) did include Ravens blasting their foe in Week 2 and the Patriots crushing the Eagles tonight. Now you can see why I am fading the public misconception (and the market move here) and going against the 0-1 Dolphins with the 1-0 Panthers in Week 2. This line opened up at a 4 in a number of the big shops earlier this week. Now it is down to a 3 as of game day morning and I am grabbing the extra value here. The odds makers had this at 4 earlier this week with plenty of good reason. The Dolphins have allowed 26 points or more in 3 of their last 4 preseason games dating back to last season. Overall, Miami has allowed an average of 24.5 points per game in their 4 preseason road games the past two seasons. Carolina has allowed 19 points or less in all 4 of their preseason home games the past two seasons. The Panthers have allowed an average of just 14.8 points per game in those 4 preseason home games. Given those numbers and knowing Carolina is the better and deeper team and has the home/road edge here and you can plainly see why I am backing the Panthers here and laying the small number. 8* CAROLINA |
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08-16-18 | Steelers +5.5 v. Packers | 34-51 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #405 Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - Everyone is lining up on Green Bay in this game as the line on the Packers has moved from a 2.5 all the way up to a 5.5 as of game day morning. Of course I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move here. Both teams had big wins last week and I feel that sets this one up to play out as a very close game. With the Steelers win last week at Philly, the road team is now 7-2 SU in Pittsburgh's last 9 preseason games. Also, one of the two losses for the traveling team came by just 4 points. In other words, if you took the road team and had +5.5 points in each of the Steelers last 9 preseason games, you would have an 8-1 (89%) ATS record! Hence the value here with the big points on the road and grabbing the Steelers. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay has had a great preseason record in recent seasons and has performed well at home but there has been an over-reaction by the markets here and so many preseason games are decided by small margins. That is why you see the vast majority of lines set in the pick'em to 3 point range nearly every single game and every single week in the preseason. Now that we know the Packers have to beat us by 6 or more to lose this bet, I am stepping in as Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a reputation, even in preseason, of being quite competitive. I just don't see this game being decided by more than 3 or 4 points. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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08-10-18 | Falcons +4 v. Jets | 0-17 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #275 Friday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New York Jets @ 7:30 ET - Similar to last night's play (Steelers OVER which went OVER before halftime) I am looking to take advantage of what the markets are creating off of long-term trending. The market is making a big move toward the Jets here in part because New York head coach Todd Bowles has an 8-4 ATS mark in preseason while Falcons coach Dan Quinn has a 4-8 ATS mark in preseason. However, lets take a closer look at just how their preseason games have unfolded because the fact is the Jets are only 6-6 SU under Bowles while the Falcons are just "a tick" behind at 5-7 under Quinn. This line was very close to a pick'em when it first came out and now is all the way up to a -4 on New York in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Jets only have one win by more than 4 points in preseason action under Bowles the past two seasons. Other than a crazy 32-31 loss to the Giants last year in preseason, the Jets have averaged scoring only 13 points per game in their other 7 preseason games under Bowles the past two seasons. As for the Falcons, they've held their opponent to 17 points or less in 6 of their 8 preseason games under Quinn the past two years. As you can see, the Jets are unlikely to score a whole lot here and it is tough to cover more than a field goal spread when you're not scoring many points! Also, the Falcons have averaged scoring 19 points per game in their last 3 preseason road games with a posted total of 40 or less. The O/U on this game is in the mid-30s and I am happy to grab the value here with the undervalued dog. Yes it is "only" preseason but I don't foresee the Falcons again going 0-4 like they did last season. Look for a very tight game in New York tonight and grab the points! 8* ATLANTA |
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08-02-18 | Bears +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-17 | Win | 102 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #241 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The odds makers are well aware of the success Ravens coach John Harbaugh has displayed in the preseason. He is a long-term 28-12 SU and 26-13-1 ATS. However, this line still was set in very nearly the "pick'em" range when lines first came out on the Hall of Fame game. Of course the betting markets jumped all over Baltimore and drove the line all the way up to very nearly a full field goal here. It has settled in at a 2.5 and my point is that the odds makers don't make a lot of mistakes. The line was originally set at a pick'em on a neutral field with good reason. The fact is that the Bears have a new head coach, Matt Nagy, and certainly are hungry for some success right away. In terms of stats last year in the regular season, the Bears were just as good as the Ravens in terms of defense. Also, in terms of evaluating the offenses based on yardage, Chicago's struggling offense was very close to Baltimore's in terms of full season production. With all that said, I like having the points here in what is likely to be a defensive struggle with points at a premium. Look for the Bears to prove to be a little hungrier in the Hall of Fame game opener keeping in mind that this is the first of five games for these two teams in the pre-season! Motivation will be an important factor and, off of a 5-11 season, the underdog should prove to be the more motivated team all the way around in this one. 8* CHICAGO |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - Seattle is 3-0, 100% perfect this preseason campaign. However, going 4-0 is never easy - it does not happen often. Additionally, going 0-4 is not that likely either and the Raiders enter this one 0-3. The fact is that this is a perfect set up. The very first number on this game that came out was Oakland -2.5 and they then have moved to has high as a +2.5 in some books as of early Tuesday. The line has settled in around 1 or 1.5 since then (as of later Tuesday) but the fact remains this is a significant move toward the Seahawks. I am not surprised given the long-term numbers on Seattle that there has been such a significant move here. But the fact remains this is opening up line value on an Oakland team that is not without some solid depth. Remember that this team did go 12-4 and win their division last season. Their playoff fortunes changed with the loss of their star QB to injury and that certainly has this Oakland team hungry heading into the new year. Even though it's only preseason, I just don't see the Raiders going 0-4 and note that the #2 QB for Seattle, Trevone Boykin threw 7 passes in last week's game with the only "completion" being an interception for his opponent! The fact is that the Seahawks are getting a lot of respect here considering that even though they've beaten Oakland the past few preseasons in the finale, the Raiders have actually held the edge in first downs in each match-up. These teams are not that far apart in terms of talent level and depth and I like the hungrier team at home getting points! Remember even just getting 1.5 points is significant because in preseason teams play for the win as they don't want to tie and go to OT. So if Oakland is ahead by 7 and Seattle scores a TD late they're likely to be going for 2 and a 1-point win. Speaking of tight wins, 5 of the Seahawks 8 preseason games the past 2 seasons were decided by a COMBINED 7 points. 0-4 preseasons for the Raiders are rare and I am grabbing the value with the hungry home dog. Back-up QBs for Oakland get revenge over Seattle's back-up signal-callers for this one after losing the Week 4 preseason match-up last year. 10* OAKLAND |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8 ET - Both teams are 1-1 but San Francisco got blasted last week, embarrassed at home, thanks to 5 turnovers! The 49'ers had 4 fumbles and threw 1 interception versus the Broncos. Suffice to say, the Niners are fired up about responding this week. The Vikings are off of a road loss at Seattle. In regular season action the Vikes would be the play here of course. But this isn't the regular season and motivation is a little tougher to come by. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer does have a good track record in preseason but the Vikes certainly haven't impressed this season. They've been substantially outgained in each of their first two games of this preseason. Even though Minnesota went 4-0 in last year's preseason, 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less. The Niners, with a new head coach, are looking for some positives after a dreadful season last year. With that said, look for a little extra hunger from San Francisco to be a difference maker here as last week's sloppy home loss has the 49'ers fired up. With the move up into the 5 and 5.5 point range on this one, there is a lot of value with the big road dog. 10* SAN FRANCISCO Sunday evening |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
CBS Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Kansas City Chiefs (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8 ET - The points should prove to be quite valuable here. While the Seahawks are 2-0 (both SU and ATS) and the Chiefs are only 1-1 (both SU and ATS), it is noteworthy that the Chiefs have only failed to cover 1 game in each of the last 2 preseasons while Seattle did fail to cover a home game in each of the last 2 preseasons. In other words, this looks like the perfect spot (literally!) for the Seahawks to get their first blemish of this preseason. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has great long term numbers in preseason but the Seahawks, in the prior 2 preseasons, only had 1 win by more than 2 points in each preseason. In other words, there is a lot of value in having the points and fading Seattle. As for KC, the past 2 preseasons they went a combined 6-2 ATS and the only two SU losses they had each came by a single point. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will have his troops ready to go here in the "dress rehearsal" game for the regular season and I like the value with the points being offered here. 8* KANSAS CITY |
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08-24-17 | Dolphins v. Eagles -3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Thursday NFLX 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7 ET - Even though the Dolphins put up 23 points in week one, their offense did not impress as they only managed 12 first downs for the game. Also 99 of their 312 yards for the game came on a late game long TD pass. Miami struggled again on offense last week as they were blown out 31-7. Certainly the Dolphins would love to bounce back this week but they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Eagles won 20-16 last week and are now 5-1 (both SU and ATS) in NFLX games under head coach Doug Pederson. More of the same expected this week in the final "dress rehearsal" game for most of the veterans as next week's games (week 4) will not see many of the veterans playing. This is the week where the games are most like the regular season and the Eagles at home are the play in this one as the Dolphins are still reeling from the injury to QB Ryan Tannehill. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-20-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Sunday NFLX 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8 ET - Everyone is looking to the Chargers this week after they got blasted 48-14 at home versus Seattle last week. Los Angeles has moved from a 2.5 point favorite to a 3.5 point choice as of Saturday evening. I will gladly fade the line move here and grab the Saints. The Chargers had no reason to be flat last week against the Seahawks. That said, even though LA hung around early in that game all of the issues with the 2nd and 3rd stringers getting completely manhandled is a concern for this week's action. Even though starters play more in Week 2, these preseason games are often decided by the back-ups and, in this case, I certainly like much more from what I saw from the Saints win Week 1. While the Chargers were outscored 38-3 in the final 3 quarters versus the Hawks last week, New Orleans did hold a 14-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before giving up the final 13 points at Cleveland. The fact that the Saints didn't "finish" last week versus the Browns is going to lead to a much stronger effort this week in the latter stages. Also New Orleans has the rest edge here as they have had 3 extra days (compared to the Chargers) coming into this one. The Saints have struggled in recent preseasons and I am well aware of that AS IS the football team. After losing against the beleaguered Browns (preseason or not!) the Saints will be ready to go here after a poor finish at Cleveland. The concern for the Chargers is they allowed well over 400 yards last week. The Saints QBs combined to complete 25 of 36 last week with no picks while the Chargers QBs combined for just 15 of 31 with two interceptions versus Seattle. A lot of line value here with the dog as the Chargers have only 2 wins by more than 3 points in their last 9 preseason games and Week 1 shows there is still a lot that this LA team has to work on! 8* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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08-18-17 | Vikings +4 v. Seahawks | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - The Seahawks won in an absolute blowout Sunday at Los Angeles versus the Chargers. They deserve credit for a big win and certainly they've had good long-term success in preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. However, the Vikings certainly have not been slouches in recent seasons either. With Thursday's win at Buffalo, Minnesota is now on a 12-2 (86%) Run both SU and ATS. That said, I love the line value here with the Vikes as they have an extra 3 days of rest compared to the Seahawks for this one and plus this line has moved up from a 3 to a 4 which has afforded even more value to a road dog team that has enjoyed much success in the preseason. The two ATS losses that Seattle has had the past two years in preseason both came at home and one was a loss by a TD to Minnesota last year. In games between the HOF Game and Week 3 of Preseason action, the Vikings are now on a perfect 8-0 ATS run after their win over the Bills as a road fave last week. We're getting line value here because of the Seahawks huge win last week (and their long-term NFLX success) overshadowing the scheduling edge (and the fact the Vikes have been a preseason juggernaut). Huge underdog value. 8* MINNESOTA |
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08-11-17 | Steelers +3.5 v. Giants | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New York Giants @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know, contrarian angles are key for me. While the Giants are the popular choice here, I like the value with the underdog Steelers. While it is true that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has a history of not performing well ATS in the preseason, he is still a winner long-term with a straight-up record of 25-20 in preseason. Lets not forget the Giants only went 1-3 ATS in preseason last year under coach Ben McAdoo. Looking at the QB rotation and expected playing time in this game I certainly don't see enough to justify the big move toward New York in terms of the line on this game. The Giants only averaged 13.5 points per game in their two preseason home games last year. The Steelers have scored 19 points or more in 3 of their last 4 true road games in preseason action. The Giants are only 4-4 SU in preseason action the past 2 years and 2 of the 4 wins came by 3 points or less. That means laying 3.5 or more (as they are here) the Giants would be on a 2-6 ATS run and I am happy to grab the generous underdog line value in this one. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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08-09-17 | Texans v. Panthers -1 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday NFLX 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:30 ET - The Texans were a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in pre-season last year under head coach Bill O'Brien and that has helped to make them a popular choice here. O'Brien now has an 8-4 SU and ATS mark in NFLX action but, keep in mind, that means of course that he was just 2-2 SU and ATS in each of his first two seasons with Houston. That said, I feel there has been a significant over-reaction to last season's NFLX result for the Texans as well as the fact that starting QB Cam Newton is not going to play for Carolina here. In Week 1 of the pre-season the starters play very sparingly anyway and so this is truly a very insignificant factor and yet it has played a role in driving this line down from Carolina -3 to where the Panthers (as of Tuesday night) are basically a pick'em price on the money line in this game! I'll grab the added value here as I expect Carolina to show some extra hunger on the field in this one. Sure there are some rookies and some new faces (that is how pre-season always is) but there are plenty of guys who will see playing time Wednesday night at home that will also have extra pep in their step for this one. Why? Because when a team goes from 15-1 and a Super Bowl appearance to 6-10 in the next season, you tend to have a little extra hunger burning in your belly for the new season. The Panthers (including depth which is of course very important in pre-season) improved on both sides of the ball in the off-season and I like the value here that is being offered right off the bat in Week One so I won't hesitate to step in. 8* CAROLINA PANTHERS |
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08-28-16 | Chargers +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #277 - Game of the Year - 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers +5.5 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - After opening up at a 4 this line has been driven as high as a 5.5 in some shops as of about 24 hours before kickoff. I am pulling the trigger now on what I feel is a fantastic value situation. I am certainly well aware of the stellar record that the Vikings have had in PreSeason action under head coach Mike Zimmer. However, they won their first game this season by just a single point. Then, even though they won the 2nd game by a full TD that came on an INT returned for a touchdown. The point is that the Vikings have not been as impressive this preseason as they were the last two years. They are opening up a new stadium Sunday but, in PreSeason action, that is just not going to be the boost that it will be in the regular season when crowd noise is truly a factor. That's, of course, because that's when the games count. As for this NFLX match-up, I don't see the Vikings being able to create a big margin in this game. The Chargers are off a win last week and their defense was very strong against the run. San Diego, in my mind, is rallying around the entire Joey Bosa situation and his holdout is actually strengthening the resolve of this defensive unit. I look for another strong effort from the Chargers Sunday. The Chargers ugly loss in Week 1 of this PreSeason was a wake-up call and they've answered it. San Diego was "only" 2-2 SU in the PreSeason last year but the two losses came by a COMBINED 3 points. In other words, as a dog in this pointspread range the Bolts would have been 4-0 ATS last NFLX season and they'd now be on a 6-1 ATS run dating back to the final game of the 2014 preseason. The point is that, as a general rule, the Chargers have avoided ugly losses in preseason action. After resting QB Phillip Rivers last week, the Chargers are ready for the "dress rehearsal" game and I like the value with the big points here as the Vikings only had 258 yards of offense last week and they only won their week 1 game by a single point as I noted above. The Vikings will be the "trendy" pick in this one but I am fading the masses and everything I am seeing points to a very focused effort from the Chargers in this one. 10* SAN DIEGO Sunday |
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08-26-16 | Steelers +3 v. Saints | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #259 - Blowout Rout - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET Friday - The Steelers not only were shutout last week in ugly 17-0 loss (4 Landry interceptions) it also was their 2nd straight loss to open up the Preseason. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his team fired up about responding this week in the critical week 3 "dress rehearsal" game. The past two Preseasons Pittsburgh only went 2-7 but they NEVER lost more than 2 straight in a preseason. They went 1-4 last season and 1-3 in the Preseason two years ago. Tomlin had entered that season with a Preseason record of 22-10 (69%) as a head coach. In other words, even in preseason, the highly competitive Tomlin does not like to lose. The Saints also come into this game off of back to back losses to open up their preseason but New Orleans went 0-4 in last year's preseason. Even with their 3-1 in the 2014 preseason note that one of those three wins came by just 2 points. Laying 3 points in all their games the Saints would now be on a 2-8 ATS run the last 2+ preseasons. The Steelers are happy about having to face Drew Brees and Company on the road as coach Tomlin feels it is a good test they are welcoming with open arms. Keep in mind this is a Super Bowl caliber Pittsburgh team that does have good depth on its roster and they are highly motivated in this spot. That will make a New Orleans win very tough to come by as I like the Steelers playmakers on defense too and I am gladly grab the generous points here as the Saints have gone from a near pick'em to now being favored by a full field goal. 8* PITTSBURGH Friday |
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08-25-16 | Falcons +3 v. Dolphins | 6-17 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #251 - NBC Blowout - 8* Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Miami Dolphins @ 8 ET Thursday - The Falcons have played exceptionally well this preseason and certainly don't want to lose the momentum now in the true "dress rehearsal" game as week three annually sees the starters playing the most. Atlanta has the leading offense in the preseason so far and certainly can do some damage against a Dolphins defense that got shredded by the Cowboys last week. Although it is "only" preseason, the Falcons did lose at Miami last year in the preseason (13-9 loss) and they are anxious to show they are ready this week. The Dolphins don't have the QB rotation strength that the Falcons have and Miami also has a penchant for struggling in the Week 3 preseason game. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to cover 5 straight week 3 games. Conversely, the Falcons are on a 6-3 ATS run in Week 3 games. Atlanta coach Dan Quinn has been "hitting all the right buttons" in practice this week and I expect a strong effort from the Falcons here as they know they should have put up many more points last week considering they piled up nearly 500 yards of offense. The Dolphins would love to bounce back after getting annihilated 41-14 last week but they simply are outclassed here. The Falcons are on the way up as they've increased their win total each of the last three regular seasons while the Dolphins haven't improved their win total in three years. Again, this is the week that most closely resembles a regular season match-up and the Falcons are on top of their game right now and I like what I am hearing from coach Quinn heading into this one. 8* ATLANTA Thursday |
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08-18-16 | Bears +3.5 v. Patriots | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #407 - Contrarian Crusher - 8* Chicago Bears +3.5 @ New England Patriots @ 8 ET Thursday - After getting shutout in Week 1, look for the Bears to respond a big way here in Week 2. The Patriots Week 1 win over the Saints looks impressive to the casual observer but note that two of the touchdowns the Pats scored were non-offensive touchdowns. New England was outgained in their game last week and here they are laying more than a field goal against a Chicago team that will be determined to bounce back after the disappointing effort last week. The Bears faced a very tough Broncos defense but note that they now face a New England defense that gave up a lot of yardage to the Saints last week. Also, the Chicago defense did hold the Denver offense to just 13 points as the other 9 points scored were via a return for a TD and a safety. The fact is that the Bears did not play as bad as the final score from last week indicated and the Patriots did not play as well as their final score indicated. The result of this is line value this week and, in preseason, motivation is very important. The Bears are highly motivated after the 22-0 shutout loss last week. 8* CHICAGO |
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08-13-16 | Seahawks +4 v. Chiefs | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #273 - Chief Authority - 8* Seattle Seahawks +4 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET Saturday - Quarterback rotations and depth are important factors in Preseason NFL but sometimes can be overestimated. I believe that is the case here because the Seahawks have unproven guys behind Russell Wilson and this has helped drive this line from a -1.5 up to a -4 on the Chiefs! This is offering key line value to a Seattle team that is certainly not known for "laying down" with Pete Carroll at the helm. Note that Carroll is 24-14-3 (63%) ATS in Preseason games in his career. Conversely, Andy Reid of Kansas City is 29-38-1 (43%) ATS in Preseason games. Even though the Chiefs are 5-3 SU in NFLX games the past two seasons, two of those wins came by 2 points or less. As for the Seahawks, though they only went 2-2 in the Preseason last year, only one of their four games was decided by more than two points and that was a 10-point WIN for Seattle. I just don't see the Seahawks being beaten by more than a field goal here and I really wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright. No matter the players on the field, Carroll has his team ready and is a tremendous competitor. Also, it is certainly worth noting that back-up QB Trevone Boykin is a dual-threat QB that is tremendously skilled and 3rd stringer Jake Heaps is having a great camp. The Hawks will be in this one all the way and I'll gladly take the additional line value being offered by the big line move in this one. 8* SEATTLE +4 |