Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-27-24 | Clippers v. 76ers +6 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6 |
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03-26-24 | Thunder -120 v. Pelicans | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday: Oklahoma City Thunder -2 or Pick'em -120 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The road team has won both match-ups this season and the set up here is perfect. Oklahoma City is off a loss but had won 14 of 17 games prior to this. The Thunder are 4-0 SU last 4 times when off a loss. Also the road team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings between teams. The Pelicans are off B2B wins and have won 5 of 6 games. However, the last 4 wins have come against 3 bad teams plus a Miami team dealing with injury issues as the Heat had lost 6 of 9 prior to winning most recent game. You are seeing the Thunder favored on the road here as a result of all of the above so don't let the line fool you. We test the double perfect trends here as the best way to play this one is on the money line by laying a little extra juice instead of laying -110 but needing to win by 3 to cash your ticket. Money line is the best option here. OKLAHOMA CITY -120 or -125 |
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03-25-24 | 76ers +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 |
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03-23-24 | Kings +140 v. Magic | Top | 109-107 | Win | 140 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Saturday: Sacramento Kings Money Line +140 @ Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - Great spot to back the Kings off a loss and no points needed either in terms of the system in play for this one. The Kings are a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 times they were off a loss in which they scored less than 110 points. That trend is in play here after Sacramento lost 109 to 102 at Washington. A loss to a bad Wizards team is an attention-getter for the Kings and I am sure they will respond big here. Yes, Orlando is on a hot streak and has been playing well. However, prior to the win over the Pelicans Thursday, the last 11 Magic wins had come against bad teams like Detroit (2), Charlotte (2), Toronto (2), Brooklyn (2), Washington and Utah. The Jazz are 29-41 and the combined record of those 5 Eastern Conference teams (the 5 worst in the conference) is 90-259. Yes, 90 wins and 259 losses! Now the Magic host a Kings team that is angry off a loss plus is 40-29 this season. Big difference in level of opponent here and I look for an upset win for the road dog in this one. SACRAMENTO +140 |
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03-22-24 | Pelicans +136 v. Heat | Top | 111-88 | Win | 136 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA New Orleans Pelicans +135 @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - So the Pelicans are in a B2B and have an injury issue with Brandon Ingram being out. However, the Heat have issues too with Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love both out plus Bam Adebayo is questionable. With New Orleans off a loss last night at Orlando, they will be fired up about bouncing back here. The Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 L3 times when off a loss. New Orleans is also a perfect 3-0 L3 times when they are on the road and coming off a loss. Overall, the Pelicans had won 16 of 21 games prior to the loss to the Magic last night. The Heat are off a win at Cleveland but had lost 5 of 7 games before that and the two victories were against a Pistons team that is one of the league's worst. The home team is just 1-5 in Miami's last 6 games and the Heat are coming home off a lengthy road trip. Oftentimes that first game back is the toughest and teams come out a bit flat. Miami is 12-13 against Western Conference teams this season. New Orleans was 16-8 this season against Eastern Conference teams prior to the loss last night. You have an East-West dichotomy here plus the Pelicans are 8 games over .500 in road games this season while the Heat are just 2 games over .500 in home games this season. You can see why we have so much value here with the money line road dog. Grab it! No points needed. NEW ORLEANS +135 |
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03-21-24 | Pelicans v. Magic +120 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 120 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Orlando Magic +120 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans are a short road favorite here and I understand the line but this has opened up a great home dog opportunity I will not pass up. Orlando was a .500 team in late January! They have since gone 17-5! Also, the Magic have won 7 of last 8 home games. As for the Pelicans, I have plenty of respect for them and they have been hot also. However, New Orleans - with very few exceptions - has struggled on the road in most match-ups when facing winning and healthy teams. Orlando is a winning team and is healthy right now and they are playing well. Pelicans have road losses to the Mavericks, Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, Lakers and Pacers since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. How do the Magic compare to the blended home records of those teams? Well Orlando has 24 home wins this season and those 6 teams have an average of 25.5 home wins this season. You see my point? The Magic at home and healthy are right within range of those teams that the Pelicans have losses to the last couple months when traveling. I am grabbing the home dog value here. OLRANDO +120 |
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03-20-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+) |
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03-18-24 | Knicks +165 v. Warriors | Top | 119-112 | Win | 165 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Monday New York Knicks +165 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - Revenge game for the Knicks as they just at home to the Warriors less than 3 weeks ago. New York has very quietly won 3 straight and 5 of 7 games! They also catch Golden State off a big win over the Lakers too. Prior to that victory the Warriors had lost 3 of 4 and their only win was against a horrible Spurs team - and they also lost to San Antonio in that stretch too! Also, GS actually has lost 3 of last 4 home games so I feel we have exceptional line value with getting the Knicks on the money line at a solid comeback price! New York has been playing great defense and has allowed an average of only 83 ppg last 5 games! Golden State has allowed 116.8 ppg last 5 games! HUGE difference. Now, of course, the Warriors are the better team offensively but we are getting to the time of year when teams win games with defense and I like the Knicks in a revenge spot and catching GS off a key divisional win. No points needed. Knicks win outright. NEW YORK KNICKS +165 |
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03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2 |
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03-17-24 | Nets +106 v. Spurs | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets +105 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET in Austin, TX - The Spurs are in Austin again tonight rather than home in San Antonio. They are trying to expand their fan base with this and have done it the last two years but it is not their true home and takes away some of the typical home court edge an NBA team would have. Overall San Antonio is one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets have also struggled but they are still a better team than the Spurs. One way to see this is that both team have struggled against winning teams as you would expect. But the Nets (15-11 SU) are much better than the Spurs (7-17 SU) when facing teams with a losing record. Look for Brooklyn to again take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. The Nets are off B2B losses but this followed wins in 5 of last 9 games. Conversely, San Antonio has not shown any true signs of life like that. The Spurs have just 4 wins in last 21 games. San Antonio is already thinking ahead to next season. The Nets are running short on time but Atlanta keeps losing so the Nets still have a shot at the #10 seed and a chance to at least get into the play-in portion of the NBA post-season. To stay alive however they must have games like this. As they've done frequently this season, they will take advantage of facing a lesser foe here. BROOKLYN +105 |
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03-16-24 | Knicks +145 v. Kings | Top | 98-91 | Win | 145 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +145 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - Home court is nothing special for Sacramento. The Kings are off B2B home wins but this followed losing 9 of last 16 home games! In fact, Sacramento has not won more than 2 straight home games since mid-December! The Knicks are a live dog here! Their defense has been fantastic for an extended stretch now and so you have the defensive edge here with New York. Also, while Knicks are off a win over a bad Portland team, the Kings are off big wins over the Bucks and the division rival Lakers. Sacramento might be a little flat here the way I see it. The Knicks have allowed an average of just 81 points last 4 games. Another interesting thing here is New York is off B2B wins and they have been in this spot 6 times this season and 5 of the 6 times their streak extended to 3 games and many much more. Don't be surprised if this pattern continues and another win streak is building for the Knicks. NEW YORK +145 |
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03-15-24 | Hawks v. Jazz +125 | Top | 122-124 | Win | 125 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +125 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 9:40 ET - Good home dog value here and no points needed the way I see it. Utah 19-13 at home this season while the Hawks road record is the exact opposite of that this season. Of course the Hawks are also without Trae Young now but they also have additional injury issues entering this one. Utah will be without Markanen again but, prior to a loss to an elite Boston team, the Jazz had won 2 of last 3 home games and the only loss was by just 2 points. Considering the fact that Atlanta is 3-7 SU last 10 road games and Bogdanovic off an ugly game as he is dealing with an illness and is questionable and Trae Young is still out too, the Hawks are a bit over-valued here. Atlanta just looked right past Portland and lost and the same thing could happen here as they underestimate another team as they look forward to their trip to LA to play the Lakers and Clippers plus then they have a tough Suns team next. I expect another sub-par effort from the wounded Hawks here. In their last game Murray had 40 points and no one else topped 13 points. That is not a good sign of where this Atlanta team is right now. The Jazz, though Clarkson won't play tonight, had Clarkson and 2 others all score at least 20 points in their loss to the Celtics. The Jazz are a little bit more of a balanced team and they are at home and they are offering plus money on the money line. I'll take it! UTAH +125 |
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03-14-24 | Knicks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5 |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +150 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 150 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Chicago Bulls +150 @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:40 ET - The Pacers are in a B2B spot and the Bulls are rested but coming off B2B losses including the most recent one at home in UGLY fashion. That set this one up well for a road dog upset in divisional action. I know Indiana has been better in divisional games than Chicago has this season but these two teams are not too far apart in the standings really. Also, before the Bulls lost at LA to the Clippers, they had won 8 of last 10 road games! So Chicago has been sneaky good on the road for many weeks now and is coming off bad home loss and a road loss. So the set up here is truly ideal especially with the Pacers in a back to back. Also, the Bulls have not lost two consecutive road games since late January! Last but certainly not least, Chicago has not lost more than 2 games in a row overall since NOVEMBER! Dating back to that losing streak in November, the Bulls are now a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. No points needed here, look for the Bulls to win this one outright! Each of last 6 Indiana wins have been by 9 or more points so I really don't think the points would help us anyway here but I do love the plus money on this money line testing that 5-0 streak! Let's win big again with that going for 6 in a row. CHICAGO +150 |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +120 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 120 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +120 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 10 ET - The Kings are at home and off a home loss in which they were held to 109 points. Sacramento is 5-1 SU the last 6 times they entered a game off a loss in which they were held to 109 points or less. Ironically, the lone loss in that 5-1 run was in OT at Milwaukee. So you have a strong angle here plus you have the revenge angle working in your favor as well. Great spot for the Kings. The Bucks are off a road win but had lost 7 of last 12 road games heading into that one. Milwaukee had been better on defense but now they've allowed 122 ppg L3 games and this is the final game of a 4-game road trip so it is also a bit of a tricky spot as many team historically struggle in a spot like this when wrapping up a road trip. Definitely a strong situational edge for the home dog in this one. We'll forego the points and grab the money line. SACRAMENTO +120 |
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03-11-24 | Hornets +145 v. Pistons | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Monday Charlotte Hornets +145 @ Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - I know we could have the Hornets at 3.5 here but, believe it or not, the Pistons only have 1 win this season in a game decided by 4 or less points this season. Also, Charlotte only has 1 loss this season in a game decided by 4 or less points. So, the point is, if this game is tight at the end, it very likely goes the way of the Hornets and so the points do not even matter. We'll go for the bigger plus money return by utilizing the money line here. Note that the Pistons have defeated the Hornets in both games this season but only have 8 wins the rest of this season. Charlotte, despite no wins against league-worst Detroit, have 16 wins against the rest of the NBA. So, the point is the team with TWICE as many wins against the rest of the NBA, is a dog here. Now, of course it makes sense to the betting markets because Detroit is at home here and most people view these teams are nearly equal. However, I like the double revenge aspect and the aforementioned 16-win vs 8-win angle plus the Hornets are the better team defensively and they enter this game off a win which helps from a confidence standpoint. Speaking of confidence, I am confident in the fact no points needed here. CHARLOTTE +145 |
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03-10-24 | Pacers +115 v. Magic | Top | 111-97 | Win | 115 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Indiana Pacers Money Line +115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6 ET - Someone knows something. Yes, this is one of those games! This line opened around a pick'em and sure enough the Magic are now as high as 2.5 point favorite. Ask yourself this. Why was this line set this way? Exactly! It was an open invite to take the Magic which is why we are doing the exact opposite, of course, and grabbing the Pacers! Note that Orlando is off a loss and had won 13 of 16 games prior to that plus they are at home for this one. Conversely, Indiana has lost 4 of 6 games! All this yet this line was a pick'em? Indeed this is a trap line for the betting public and I am going on the other side of the move and we do not even need the points. Outright win for Indiana here. The Pacers have double revenge here from losing both games this season with the Magic and those two games were in Indiana. The road team has now won 3 straight in this match-up as the final meeting last season was a Pacers road win at Orlando as well. Look for the road team to make it 4 in a row and grab the money line road dog in this one! This line was set at a pick'em originally for a reason. Now we take advantage here and grab the underdog value. INDIANA +115 |
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03-09-24 | Raptors v. Blazers +130 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 130 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Portland Trail Blazers +130 vs Toronto Raptors @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but they are 9-10 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Toronto is only 7-17 SU against Western Conference foes! So the point is, even though you are talking about two teams having rough seasons, the Blazers have favored much better in non-conference action than the Raptors. Also, Portland has the homecourt edge in this one. The Trail Blazers have won twice in last five games. Toronto has lost 7 straight road games against Western Conference foes. Look for that run to reach 8 in a row in this one! Grab the home dog value here. No points needed! PORTLAND +130 |
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03-08-24 | Hornets +130 v. Wizards | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Friday Charlotte Hornets +130 @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - I know the Hornets have issues of their own but this is more about a play against Washington. Many people know that the Wizards are on an 0-16 SU losing streak but many may not realize that Washington has not won a home game in 2024! Indeed the Wizards last win at home was back in late December and they have since lost 16 home games in a row as well! So this pick is testing dual 16-0 runs in terms of play against angles. Washington is only favored here because they are at home but they actually have won only 3 home games all season! Conversely, the Hornets have won 7 road games this season including 4 since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. The point is that we are talking about solid line value here and in terms of solid SU trending so no points needed. We'll again grab the money line in this one and look for another outright upset. Charlotte has lost 5 straight but they faced a rather tough schedule and this followed a solid 5-1 SU run L6 games! I am going to challenge the Wizards to finally win a game and note that the Hornets are the better team defensively and they have gone 4-7 in divisional games while the Wizards are 2-11 in divisional games this season. Road dog is the play here and no points needed! CHARLOTTE +130 |
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03-07-24 | Nets v. Pistons +120 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 120 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Detroit Pistons +115 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up. No points needed in my opinion and we'll grab the plus money on the money line here. The Nets are without Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson for this game. Also, Ben Simmons - as per usual - is also out for this game. Though Simmons hardly plays, Brooklyn sure could use him tonight with Thomas and Johnson being out. Another key here is the set up as the Nets are off a big divisional win over the 76ers. Though Brooklyn has won 3 of 4, the victories came against the Sixers without Embiid and Maxey and the Hawks without Trae Young. The Pistons have had a very rough season but there is a reason this line is priced this way. Don't let the number fool you. The home dog is the play here for the reasons above and I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the money line. DETROIT +115 |
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03-06-24 | Kings +125 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 125 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Sacramento Kings Money Line +125 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:40 ET - Great set-up here. The Lakers are off a big home win versus Thunder. The Kings are off a frustrating home loss to the Bulls. As a result, Sacramento is not in a good mood here and they are the healthier team heading into this match-up also. Additionally, the Kings have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including 3 straight at LA. These teams are right next to each other in the standings and I love the situational aspect here. Sacramento is 8-2 SU this season when off a home loss. One of those 2 losses was at Denver when in this situation. The Nuggets are 24-6 at home this season and the defending champs. So in the other 9 games, including a big when hosting Denver in this situation, the Kings have gone 8-1 SU! The Lakers are certainly not the Nuggets and don't have a home court edge like Denver. LA has been strong at home this season but the Kings have not been phased in this building in the least. In fact they also just beat the Clippers in the same venue about a week ago. The Kings long-term success over the Lakers continues and we do not even need the points here. SACRAMENTO +125 |
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03-05-24 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 207.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and this is a classic case where the long-term history is being given far more credit than the current trending. Yes, the Hornets are certainly known for low-scoring games but they have been playing better of late and scoring better. Also, being on their home floor makes a difference too. At the same time, Orlando enters this game on a 3-game winning streak in which they have averaged 112 points per game. The Magic also are looking to make up for a dud though in their most recent road game. Additionally, the first meeting between these teams totaled 247 points and the Hornets won that one right here in Charlotte. So the Magic, leaders in the SE Division, also have revenge on their minds here. The Hornets are allowing 116.5 ppg last 4 games but also have scored an average of 114 ppg in their last 6 home games. That included facing the Bucks and defensive-minded Memphis and the Lakers too. The point is that Charlotte can score decently at home and they are being under-valued here in that regard. At the same time, revenge-minded Orlando should go off here as well! The Magic have won 8 of 10 and, not including OT points of course, have averaged 114 ppg in the victories. This total is just too low. OVER 207.5 in Charlotte |
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03-04-24 | Blazers v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER 211.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trailblazers @ 8 ET - The Wolves off the 1-point low-scoring loss last night on their home floor and will go all out here against a defenseless foe. Of course that is why they are such a big favorite here and I like the fact that Minnesota has averaged 122 points per game in their 3 meetings with Portland this season. The line on this one is 14 so that would put this game at 122 to 108 if Minny hits their average against the Blazers and if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) with their assessment of the proper spread here. That would put this game in the 230 range and honestly I would not be surprised to see that and for sure, we have a lot of wiggle room with the total posted on this one as you can see. Look for an up tempo game from the T-wolves at home after that grinder last night. They will take advantage of a weaker foe and this one turns into a free-flowing game with plenty of points - yet again - between these teams. All 3 meetings this season between these teams have totaled at least 209 and given the situation here we should eclipse that for sure, just as the last two meetings have eclipsed that as well. The situation boosted by Wolves off a low-scoring loss and Blazers off a confidence-boosting rare OT road win! OVER 211.5 in Minnesota |
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03-03-24 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Saturday OVER 221.5 in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6 ET - The Hornets are off loss in which they scored 114 points and they have been much more competitive recently. That said, look for them to score plenty and hang close with this Raptors team favored by 8 points in this one. Toronto should score very well here but is not known for defense. Toronto has allowed at least 119 points in 7 of last 8 games! They allowed 124 ppg in those 7 games. You can see why I am expecting an improving Charlotte team to score well given those numbers. Also, 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams totaled at least 235 points this season. Toronto has averaged 121.5 ppg scoring last 6 games. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting at least 230s in this one. We get a low total here because of Charlotte's long-term reputation but look at their short-term plus look at the long-term of these Raptors. This game will be wide-open! OVER 221.5 in Toronto |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110 |
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03-01-24 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Friday Top Play OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - Tough break for those had the over, like we did, in last night's Hornets vs Bucks match-up. That game had 121 points at the half but then a ridiculous 89 points the rest of the way for a tough loss for those holding over tickets. Tonight should make up for that. I know Charlotte has a lot of low-scoring results but this Philly team has 2 road games on deck and they are coming off an ugly road loss at Boston. The 76ers will be ready to run plenty here at home as they continue play a different type of basketball with Embiid sidelined. As mentioned in prior write-ups, the Sixers traded away defense and grit for more offense and shooting when they were recently active before the trade deadline. Of course in a tough divisional game like they just had against the Celtics the results of that don't necessarily show up. But in a game like this hosting a Hornets team with one of the worst records in the NBA, you will see plenty of attacking from the Sixers offense here. Tobias Harris snaps his scoring slump with a big game against a road-adverse Hornets team. Charlotte had allowed 120.5 ppg L6 road games prior to rare low-scoring games at Portland and Golden State. That was followed by a home and home set with Bucks in which the allowed an average of 117 ppg. The Sixers have allowed 118 ppg since Embiid has been out with the injury after the Warriors game in late January. Sixers will play fast tonight and force the tempo as they look for a big home blowout. Take advantage of the line value as this total has dropped from its opener. OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia |
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02-29-24 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 216 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 216 in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The Hornets just got destroyed by the Bucks in Milwaukee by a score of 123 to 85. Now the rematch is in Charlotte and I fully expect the Hornets to score much better in this one on their home floor. However, they will again struggle to stop Milwaukee here as the Bucks are showing signs of finally getting it going under new head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have won 3 straight and scored an average of 118 points per game last 3 games. The Hornets also had been looking better prior to that ultra ugly shooting performance at Milwaukee. Prior to that, Charlotte had won 5 of 6 games. Also, the Hornets are happy to be back home after a 3 game road trip. Note that the Hornets have scored an average of 116.8 ppg last 5 home games. You can see, based on the Hornets better play of late and scoring numbers at home coupled with the Bucks recent win streak and better scoring as well, this total is just far too low in the 216 range. The Bucks are a 12-point favorite so 216 total means a final in the 114 to 102 range but, based on all of the above, both teams should top that number. In fact, Milwaukee has scored an average of 124 points in their 3 meetings with the Hornets this season. OVER 216 in Charlotte |
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02-28-24 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 209.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday OVER 209.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:10 ET - This total has been dropping and, simply put, it has become too low. We only need 210 to be a winner here. Lets say the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about the spread of 12 in this game. In that case, a total of 210 would mean a final of 111 to 99. Do you really think the Wolves are only to score 111 at home here? I sure don't! Memphis has allowed 121 ppg in going 0-4 L4 road games. But also look for the Grizzlies to bounce back after an ultra lousy home performance in most recent game in which they scored only 86 points. Prior to that one, Memphis had enjoyed a 3-game stretch in which they averaged 110 ppg. So you can see my 121 to 110 range with a Minny win would make sense here given those numbers. I do feel we have a lot of wiggle room here given this low total in the 210 range here. Just how much defense is Minny going to play here when they have tougher games against Sacramento and the Clippers on deck? Also, the Timberwolves have already won all 3 match-ups with Memphis this season. I just don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's greatest here. Also, those 3 games in the season series have all totaled at least 216 points and averaged 222 points per game. We have got some solid line value here with this low total. Take advantage! OVER 209.5 in Minnesota |
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02-27-24 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 230.5 in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers lost a lot of defense and grit in the recent trades. But Philly is still a very talented team, even with Embiid out, and they can pile up points in the right situation. This is the right situation! The Sixers are facing a division rival they will struggle to stop and this game should turn into a "track meet" up and down the court with quick scoring opportunities. Philadelphia will bounce back from a tough shooting performance in most recent game for some of their bigger scorers. Boston is going to be aggressive on their home floor as they have won 8 straight games and 10 of 11 and they have done it with a lot of offense. Boston averaged 124.5 ppg in those 10 games. The line on this game is currently a -12. That would put this final at about 125 to 113 and honestly I am expecting even a little more as this one gets into the 240s just like the most recent meeting game. In that one the Sixers were without Embiid then too plus Maxey missed with an illness. That game still got into the mid-240s. That was even with Tatum getting ejected late in the 3rd quarter of that game. Boston still scored 125 in that game. Look for plenty of points again in this one as Maxey now available for the Sixers in the rematch. OVER 230.5 in Boston |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings -7 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-) |
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02-25-24 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 225.5 | Top | 92-109 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - I know Trae Young is out for the Hawks but that is why this total is down to as low as a 225.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff. However, did you know that of the 5 games Young has missed this season those games totaled at least 229 four times! The fact is this Hawks team knows only one way to play no matter who is on the floor. This Atlanta team not known for defense and they try to win games with a lethal and quick-strike offensive attack. They know they are catching division rival Orlando here not only in a B2B spot but playing the 3rd game in 4 nights. I look for the Hawks to try and run them right out of of the arena in this one! Yes, Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but they have still allowed an average of 111 points per game last 7 games not including OT scoring of course. Now they face one of the teams in the NBA that tends to get into the highest-scoring games. That said you should be able to safely count on the 120 range here and this line is around a pick'em. In other words this one getting into the 240 range should certainly not be a shock. Hawks games have averaged 245 this season and, as noted above, even when Trae Young is out, the points have still piled up and results have been similar. OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-23-24 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 10:10 ET - This total is in the 229.5 range as of very early game day morning. We get some value because of the Hornets low-scoring ways long-term. This Charlotte team is playing much better of late and is off a road win at Utah to jump start their 2nd half of the season. The Warriors also off a big win versus the Lakers last night. What I like about the line value with this total here is that both teams scored big last night yet each game stayed under the total. Now they are matched up, loaded with confidence, and it is a non-conference match-up in the 2nd day of a B2B where defensive intensity will not be at its greatest! Note that the Hornets have now won 4 straight games and averaged 116 ppg in this 4-game stretch. Charlotte is about a 14 point dog here so that would put this game at 130-116 if they hit their recent scoring average. But can Warriors really get to 130 here? Yes, it is is not beyond the realm of reality for sure! Golden State is averaging 124 ppg L7 home games - not including OT points of course - and now they face one of the overall weaker teams in the league. Overall, GS is averaging 128 points scored per game last 7 games - home or away. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting 240s here and certainly we should see at least 230s. The Hornets will not want to play fast necessarily but the Warriors, on their home floor, will absolutely force them too. But with Hornets playing with more confidence than usual on the offensive end, they will surprise with scoring well here. OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -115 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Knicks are still without Anunoby and Randle. The Sixers are without Embiid of course but New York down two key players. Unsurprisingly, New York is starting to struggle not having these two guys. The Knicks lost 4 straight before the All-Star break. The Sixers lost at home to Miami before the break but had won 2 straight games - both on the road - prior to that. Now veteran Lowry expected to make his debut in hometown Philly for the 76ers and don't be surprised if the veteran outperforms expectations as he is rejuvenated by being back home and now playing for the Sixers. This is a bargain price on the Sixers as, until the Knicks get healthy again, they are just not the same team that had been streaking red hot. Philly takes advantage of catching rival NY at the right time in the right place! PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +11.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+) |
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02-14-24 | Heat v. 76ers -3 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -3 v. Magic | Top | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-) |
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02-12-24 | 76ers v. Cavs OVER 229 | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - As mentioned in another recent totals writeup involving Philly, the Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Both he and Payne have already had 20-point games since recently coming on board. However, the key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades to get guys like Hield and Payne as the Sixers lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just less than a week ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been in a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 11 games the Sixers are allowing 124 ppg! Now they are visiting a red hot Cavaliers team that has won 9 straight games and scored an average of 119 ppg in their last 11 games. The Sixers are playing more of a small ball style since the trade and plus being without Embiid. They still have scorers like Maxey and Harris plus guys like Oubre and Council also capable of getting in the 20 point range. But they just do not have size and are lacking interior defense. The Cavs will surely exploit this and yes they get involved in some low-scoring battles at time but look at what Cleveland has done in recent home games! The Cavaliers have scored an average of 129 ppg in their last 4 home games. 5 of L6 Sixers games have totaled more than the 229 range currently set on tis games as of about 10 hours before tipoff. We'll see 230s here at least and truly I would not be surprised to see 240+ given all of the above. OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-11-24 | Kings v. Thunder OVER 239 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER 239 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings @ 3:10 ET - The Thunder off ugly loss at Dallas last night. They will bounce back here at home and they have revenge against the Kings. However, this Sacramento team comes in running hot and they are high on confidence right. The Kings just knocked off the Nuggets and they have won 7 of 10 games. Sacramento has averaged 124 ppg last 5 games. The Kings however, prior to the huge win over Denver, had allowed an average of 126.5 ppg last 4 games. The Thunder have allowed 135 ppg last two games. The last game between these teams totaled 251 points. Sacramento will look to push the pace here knowing they are the fresher team after a night off and catching OKC in a B2B spot. The Kings have scored at least 120 points in 8 of 11 games. The Thunder are favored by about 4 points here for a reason. That would put this game in the 125 to 120 range and I am expecting at least that here. This one gets well into the 240s. OVER 239 in Oklahoma City |
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02-10-24 | 76ers -4 v. Wizards | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This is a bargain price in the -4 range on Philly as of 10 hours before tipoff. Yes the 76ers are struggling but they got Payne and Hield both into action last night and now this is their 2nd game with both on the floor. Also, Maxey should be back for this one but, even if he is not, look at the value in this match-up! Washington has the WORST home record in the NBA as they are just 3-22 SU at home this season. This is a value spot to grab a talented Sixers team that, though without Embiid and dealing with some injury issues, is still a far superior team to this Wizards team. Also, the Sixers have won 4 straight over the Wizards. All 4 wins were by at least 5 points and the average margin of victory was 21 points! More of the same on the way here in a road rout! Make no mistake the Sixers have struggled but the Wizards are having a very rough season and each of their last 29 losses have been by at least 4 points which is the line currently available in the marketplace as of 10 hours before tipoff. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Even if Hield does not play tonight, a big key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades yesterday. They lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just 24 to 48 hours ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 9 games the Sixers are allowing 125 ppg! Now they are hosting a Hawks team that has allowed 128.4 ppg last 10 games and, of course, this is not including OT points. Atlanta is all about play on the offensive end and with the 76ers currently having played more small ball of late, they have been giving up big point totals as well. The value is there with this one likely to get into the 250s given the numbers above as well as the post-trade situation. Not including OT points of course, the 3 meetings between these teams have averaged 243 ppg this season. That is right about where this total is as of 13 hours before tipoff. However, this total should be even higher when you consider the factors noted above and the recent trending of these two teams. The Hawks have had 8 straight games total at least 242 points and those 8 games, again not including OT, have averaged 258.5 ppg. We'll see 250s here at least. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-08-24 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 224 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 224 in Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - With Cleveland in a back to back and Brooklyn missing a few players for this one, this total has ticked down. The result is line value on the over. Note that the Cavaliers are a red hot 15-1 last 16 games. Being in a B2B here will not slow them down. Cleveland is off a low-scoring win at Washington yesterday but the game still hit 220 which is not far from tonight's total. The Cavaliers, prior to scoring only 114 against the Wizards, had scored an average of 121 ppg their last 10 games. Thursday's line is a -6 at Brooklyn. Could this game end 121-115 given these numbers? Absolutely and I do expect Brooklyn to bounce back at home off a couple of low-scoring home losses. Knowing the Cavs are in a back to back spot, the Nets will likely elect to push the tempo a little bit more in this one and wear down Cleveland as the game goes on. Even with guys out, the Nets still have plenty of scoring firepower with guys like Bridges, Thomas, Dinwiddie and Claxton. Also, O'Neale has been used more the past two games and averaged 16.5 ppg. The Nets scored 60 points in the 2nd half of their home loss to Dallas Tuesday and they will start faster this time around after a slow start versus the Mavs in that game. 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games have totaled at least 226 points and the Nets had some high-scoring performances in those. They bounce back off the B2B home losses but the Cavaliers stay red hot and that ultimately pushes this game over the total and into the 230s per my projections here. OVER 224 in Brooklyn |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers lost the last meeting a week ago and that is when Kuminga fell on Embiid's knee and the latter is now out for 6 to 8 weeks recovering from surgery. Embiid was already hobbled in that game but that finished him off. That is part of the line value here. This line is all the way up to a 4.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff and it is just too much. Embiid had a horrible game when these teams met last week and the Sixers were also without All-Star Maxey in that game. So we are truly getting some line value here by going against an over-rated Warriors team that just does not travel well. They were horrible on the road last season but then shockingly started this season 5-1 on the road. Sure enough, their normal pattern has resumed and they have gone just 4-11 in their road games since then. Here they face a Sixers team that is off B2B home losses after starting the season 17-6 in home games! Philly is without Embiid but the Warriors also have some injury concerns entering this game as well. Also, Golden State off a win at Brooklyn but the Warriors have not won B2B road games since that 5-1 road run to start the season 3 months ago! As for the Sixers, they have only lost 3 consecutive home games one time this season and that also was all the way back in November as well. The point is we have quite a few strong trends in our favor here plus I also like the situational value here! I expect a huge effort from Maxey and the home team in this one in front of a raucous Philly crowd out for revenge in this one. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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02-06-24 | Wolves -5 v. Bulls | Top | 123-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8 ET - The Wolves are the much stronger team and this is a reasonable spread to lay. Consider that the Bulls are 8-8 L16 games which does not sound that bad but the only winning team they beat is the Houston Rockets. The other 7 wins were against bad teams like Charlotte (3) and Portland, Memphis, Toronto and San Antonio. As for the Timberwolves, like Chicago, they also have a recent win over Houston and actually beat them twice during their current 11-6 run. The difference between Minny's wins and the Bulls wins however is the fact that Minnesota also has beaten Dallas, OKC, Brooklyn, the Clippers and Orlando during this solid run. Until Chicago truly proves they can step up against top tier competition, that is the big difference between these teams. Also, the T-Wolves are the much healthier team entering this match-up. This line is currently a 5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! MINNESOTA (-) |
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02-05-24 | Mavs v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - This total is in the 242.5 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. Philly is without Embiid now and that really opens things up in the paint. They tend to play more of a small ball fast paced style when Embiid is not available. That means plenty of scoring both ways! As for the Mavericks, Irving is probable tonight and Doncic is questionable. I expect both to play in this game but either way I do like the over plenty in this one. Note that the Mavericks have allowed an average of 125 ppg last 12 games so don't let the big total scare you away here! The 76ers have allowed 125 ppg last 7 games. The line on this is around a pick'em. In other words 126-125 type game here is not only possible it is probable given numbers like this. Look for both teams to get into the 125 to 130 range here in a typical wide-open non-conference affair played with plenty of pace and continued struggles defensively from both clubs. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-04-24 | Pacers v. Hornets +9.5 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 6 ET - The Pacers have a number of banged up players for this one. Yes, they won by 31 when these teams met in Indiana but they outscored the Hornets by 30 from three point land in that one! Ridiculously hot shooting for the Pacers was the difference in that game. I know it may seem tough to play on a team that has lost 6 in a row and is having a tough season but I am happy to challenge the Pacers to win this game by double digits over the Hornets! Note that Charlotte is the much healthier team and they are at home and the Pacers are on a 4-8 SU run. In those dozen games, Indiana had only 1 win by more than 6 points! This is a tricky scheduling spot for Indiana too because it is a 1-game road trip before B2B home games. Could the Pacers "mail it in" here against a Charlotte team they blasted in the first meeting? I absolutely believe that will be the case and the Hornets will be the hungrier team here at home and the Pacers health issues keep this one from turning into a complete rout. This one decided by single digits. CHARLOTTE (+) |
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 228 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 3 ET - The Pistons expected to have Cade Cunningham back for this one. The Magic scored 123 points the last time they faced Detroit. The Pistons did not score well in that one versus Orlando but they are back at home for this rematch. Detroit has scored at least 120 points in 3 straight games! The Pistons have allowed 122 ppg their last 9 games. Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but the Magic are facing a Pistons team that does not play well defensively but is at home and has been scoring well of late. This one has over written all over it. The Magic off a tight win at tough Minnesota plus have a big divisional game on deck at Miami. In other words, the Orlando defensive play is not likely to be at its best here against the worst team in the league. As of 8 hours before gametime, this total in the 228 range which is a great value. OVER the total in Detroit |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 136-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 6:10 ET - Yes, the 76ers are without Embiid right now but Maxey is back and lighting things up on the statsheet. Also, this as much a play against Brooklyn as it is a play on Philly. Note that the Nets have lost 75% of their games since mid-December as they are on a 6-18 SU run. Not only that, Brooklyn had 2 of the 6 wins against a bad Detroit team and also a pair of recent wins against currently slumping Houston and Utah teams. So this line is basically saying that because Embiid is out, the 76ers are about the same level of team as the Nets. I completely disagree with current market assessment that on a neutral court these teams are about equal. Yes, even without Embiid, the Sixers are stronger than Brooklyn. Also, the Nets have lost 9 of last 11 road games and one of the only two wins was against the worst team, Pistons, in the entire league! Now the Sixers are back at home where they have won 11 of 14 games and this is a very reasonable number on Philly which has come down from about a half-dozen when it first came out. As of 10 hours before tipoff, this line is in the -4 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-02-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER 221 in Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:10 ET - Sharpe is still out for the Blazers but what is interesting is that Portland did struggle offensively in the first game without him but what about since then? The Trail Blazers are actually 5-4 SU last 9 games and in their last 10 games without him they did average 113 points per game NOT including OT points of course. Denver is favored by about a dozen points here so that puts this game at 125 to 113 which is well above the 221 total here. I am aware that Jokic is questionable but, if he does not play, a potential small approach here for the Nuggets could serve them well here. That's because the Blazers are playing with a little more confidence now and willing to run and gun and that could play right into Denver's hands in a potential home rout. Statistically, when at home and off a loss, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 110 ppg. In other words, when coming off a loss and playing on their home floor, Denver has shown a propensity to rely more on their offense than defense in terms of bouncing back! The Nuggets are 5-0 L5 home games and average 119.4 during this winning streak at home. Again, look at the spread here, and if Denver hits 120 and wins by 12 that still puts this one into the upper 220s. I am expecting 230s here based on all of the above and the situation. OVER 221 in Denver |
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02-01-24 | Cavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 215 in Memphis Grizzlies vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8 ET - When you look at Memphis and the injury situation then of course you start thinking about a tough time scoring points. However, too much emphasis is being placed on that here and not enough on what the Cavaliers are capable of! Also, the Grizzlies are highly unlikely to again make just 30 of 80 from the field like they did in most recent game. Cleveland tends to play higher-scoring games and I could see this game being rather wide-open. Remember too that Memphis had scored 107.5 ppg in their 4 games prior to that loss. As for the Cavs, they have scored big in winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Cavaliers also have allowed 114 ppg their last 4 games. How amped up defensively do you really think the Cavs are going to be facing a Grizzlies team that is enduring a very rough season? I just can not foresee much effort here from Cleveland in terms of defensive intensity. Instead look for more of a run and gun approach in this non-conference affair and that should yield plenty of points. The current spread on this one is 8 and that puts this final at 111-103 in terms of the total posted on this game. But do you really think the Cavs are only going to get to 111 here? They have averaged 120 ppg last 13 games and now face a struggling opponent. In other words, you can see why I love the value with the low total posted on this one! 10* OVER 215 in Memphis |
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01-31-24 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 215.5 | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The first meeting totaled 211 and the next one 195 and the next one 214 (not including OT of course). That said, I do understand that this game has a low total on it. However, it opened up at 218 for a reason and is now down to 215.5 and I love the situational value here with the over. The Bulls are coming off a loss and have averaged 118.5 ppg the last 4 times when off a loss. Also, Chicago (not including OT of course) has seen 8 of last 10 games all total more than 220 points! Charlotte is off a low-scoring loss to New York but, prior to this, the Hornets had one ugly game against the Sixers but their other 6 recent games saw them average 116 points! Also, Charlotte is allowing an average of 125 points last 5 games. Prior to the low-scoring loss to the Knicks, 8 of last 10 Hornets games have totaled at least 219 points. Again, you can see the value here with the low number and I love getting additional value on a total when the line has moved further down in situations where it was already quite low to begin with. 10* OVER 215.5 in Charlotte |
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01-30-24 | 76ers +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - I took the over last night in the Sixers game because even if Embiid missed that would mean more of a "small ball" type of game and I liked the Blazers long-term scoring trends at home as I noted in the write-up. I certainly was not shocked that Embiid did not play because he and the Sixers caught flak, including getting the attention the league office, by him not playing the prior game at Denver. From a Philly perspective it was essentially a "see, he really is hurt" statement by having him miss at Portland. I really expect both he and Maxey will return tonight. Even if they do not (though I certainly expect at least one will), note that the Sixers are in a situation that has not lost since November of 2021! Indeed that was the last time the Sixers have had a losing streak of more than 3 games. Since that point in time, Philly is 6-0 SU when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak! In this match-up they are a dog and I did consider playing the money line here but we'll grab the available points which is currently 3.5 as of early gameday morning. The Warriors are not a strong team. Golden State is dead last in the Pacific and they continue to give up too many points. The Warriors enter this game having lost 10 of 14 games. So in this game GS is what I would term a "false favorite" as they are laying points against a solid Sixers team that will play desperate here no matter who is on the floor. We will grab the points just in case but I do look for that SU multi-year run of the Sixers when on a 3-game losing streak to reach a PERFECT 7-0 last 7 as they come out strong in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-29-24 | 76ers v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but are finally getting healthier again and I certainly do not expect a repeat of last night's shooting performance which saw them make just 6 of 33 from three point land! The Sixers have a number of guys on the injury report as questionable entering this one but no matter who ends up on the floor for this one, they will be going hard to end a 2-game losing streak and the tempo will be pushed. There have been 4 times this year in which the Sixers were on the road and coming off B2B losses and all 4 of those games totaled at least 242 points. Keep in mind, the posted total on this one as of about 10 hours before tipoff is as low as a 222.5 and so this is a 4-0 / 100% season trend we are testing here in terms of the over given this situation. On the road and off B2B losses the Sixers have responded with a fury offensively all 4 times. With Grant and Henderson back last night and overall better shooting expected tonight at home after unusual debacle yesterday, this should fly over the total. The Blazers had averaged scoring 116.5 ppg in their last 13 home games prior to yesterday's poor effort versus Chicago. This line is 10 on this game. That puts this one at Philly 126-116 given that Blazers average. That puts the total at 242 which is the minimum scored in each of the 4 prior times Philly has been in this situation. In other words, everything is lining up here and looks like a solid value. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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01-28-24 | Suns -115 v. Magic | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6:10 ET - The Suns opened as a small favorite here but the line has come down to as low as a -1 and now the money line is available as low as a -115 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Grab the money line in this one as that is the value way to play this one at a cheap price. I don't see the Suns losing B2B games. They are off a tough 2 point loss but they had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 games prior to that! The Magic, on the other hand, are also off a loss but that brings Orlando's run to 7-15 their last 22 games! The Magic play in one of the weakest divisions in the NBA while the Suns play in one of the strongest. Orlando is 6-9 SU against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix is 9-5 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Yes, the Magic would like revenge here for a loss at Phoenix 4 weeks ago but Orlando is just not on the same level as this Suns team. Grabbing Phoenix hungry off a loss is a superb value here with the way this line has come down. We'll fade the line move and lay a very short price with this money line. 10* PHOENIX -115 |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 5:40 ET - The Nuggets are at home and this line has gone from as low as 3.5 to as high as 5.5 points. This is a revenge game for Denver as they lost at Philly earlier this month. However, Embiid is so focused when he is healthy and playing this team and he is ready for this one just like he was in Philly less than two weeks ago. It is the big battle between Jokic and Embiid. In past visits here for the Sixers, Embiid either missed the game or played but was not healthy. The situation this season is different and that will be reflected on the scoreboard as well. The Nuggets are the defending champs and a great team but only 1 of their last 5 games has resulted in a Denver win by more than 5 points. We have some value here with a talented underdog that sees this match-up as a huge game. The Sixers know the NBA title chase ran through Denver last season and that it ultimately could be the same story out west this season. The Sixers must prove they can win here. I do expect Maxey (ankle) to play and, keep in mind, the Nuggets have key players banged up too. That counteracts the impact should Maxey not play in this one. The points are just too valuable here in a game the Sixers can win outright if Embiid keeps playing like he has been. I look for another aggressive game from him here as he looks to again outduel a player, Jokic, that he greatly respects. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-26-24 | Thunder +115 v. Pelicans | Top | 107-83 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +105/+110 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder have won 4 straight games and they have revenge on their minds here too. They lost at home to the Pelicans back in early November. Look for the road team to again prevail in this one. Oklahoma City has been so hot with 26-9 SU record last 35 games and they have won 5 of last 7 on the road also. New Orleans is off a win at home but had lost 5 of 9 home games prior to that one. In other words, home court has been nothing special for the Pelicans of late and, overall, New Orleans was on just a mediocre 4-4 run last 8 games prior to hitting everything in sight in their unreal 153 to 124 win over Utah in most recent game. This low line is begging for Pelicans money but we will not bite on the bait. Not only are we grabbing the underdog here but we do not even need the points. Avoid laying any juice and grab a little plus money with the money line in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY +105/+110 |
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01-25-24 | 76ers -5 v. Pacers | Top | 122-134 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
NBA 10* Top Play Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers are about 5 to 5.5 point favorites on the road here. Even though Indiana is at home, they will be without Haliburton and also the Pacers just got back from a long road trip. After a long road swing like that, the first game back is almost the toughest. Making it even tougher is when you face a revenge-minded Sixers team that is on a hot streak. I know Harris might be out for the Sixers tonight but they are otherwise looking strong and certainly the Haliburton absence for the Pacers is the big one. Indiana did spring that upset at Philly as noted above but the Pacers outscored the Sixers beyond the arc by 21 points (differential of 7 threes) as the 76ers had a rare tough shooting night from deep. Philly had taken the first meeting this season by double digits and I expect a repeat of that here. The Sixers enter this one on a 6-game winning streak and the average margin of victory has been 11 points per game. The Pacers have lost 5 of 6 games and are a very weak team defensively. In this revenge spot it will be Philly bringing the better defensive effort. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-24-24 | Suns -125 v. Mavs | Top | 132-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -125 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:30 ET - The Suns are the hottest team in the Western Conference right now and have won 6 straight games. The Mavericks are at home for this match-up so that is keeping this line in check. But Dallas also is dealing with a lot of injury issues and this includes Doncic and Irving. Even if both those guys play they are not 100% and Dante Exum - a contributor for sure - might still be out as well. So two stars and a 20-minute type guy all are question marks here. Phoenix also is seeking payback for the home loss to Dallas earlier this season. The Mavs just have been very inconsistent and they are facing a high-quality revenge-minded opponent that is on a win streak. Until the Mavericks are healthy I expect their struggles with consistency to continue. Revenge is NOT a big angle for me here but it does not hurt either...that's for sure. The big key is the hotter team and the healthier team available at a nice price here. Line on the side as low as 1.5 points as of early game day morning but I recommend the only slightly higher price on the money line to make any Suns win a win at the betting window as well. 10* PHOENIX -125 |
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01-23-24 | Jazz +6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 124-153 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 9 hours before tipoff and I like the underdog value here. Yes, Utah does not have a good SU record on the road and the Pelicans are tough at home. However, this Jazz team has been playing very well for an extended stretch here and the 3 meetings between these teams so far this season have all been tight. Those 3 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.7 points. Utah enters this game off B2B losses but both were by 5 or less points! Prior to this, the Jazz had won 12 of 14 games! So this Jazz team is still hot and and they have been tough to beat by a big margin and here they have revenge for losing their most recent game at New Orleans and yet we have a half-dozen points to work with! I will take it! The Pelicans have not exactly been setting the world on fire as they are just 9-7 SU last 16 games and I feel we have solid value with the way the Jazz have been playing and yet entering this game off B2B losses. The Jazz have not lost 3 straight since early December. Upset alert here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* UTAH (+) |
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01-22-24 | Spurs v. 76ers OVER 236.5 | Top | 123-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - This total in the 237 range and Philly is about a 14 point favorite here. The reason I am referencing those specific numbers is because the Spurs have scored at least 115 points in 7 of their last 9 games. If they hit at least that 115 mark and the odds makers are right about the spread on this game (as they so often are) that puts this total in the mid-240s. That means we have some solid value with the over here the way I see it. The 76ers are off a rare ultra low-scoring game which they won at Charlotte. Now they are back at home where they so often play at a frenetic pace and note that the Spurs are known for playing fast as well. With this being a non-conference match-up there is also less emphasis on defense. The Sixers are rested and have some rest on deck as well so they will go all out here and the Spurs are coming off a rare win and will be ready to push the tempo again here as that is the way they have been playing consistently all season long. Now SA has the confidence boost of coming off a rare win too so their hotter shooting might surprise here as confidence tends to be contagious. Sixers defense could be lax here after holding their last opponent below 90 points! 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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01-21-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Lakers | Top | 110-134 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:10 ET - First off I know the Blazers are one of the weaker teams in the league but the Lakers are only mediocre in my eyes and that means we have excellent line value here given a few other keys with this one as well. Portland enters this game off B2B wins so that helps a little with confidence. The Lakers are off a bad loss in most recent game and they also could get caught looking ahead to a big game with the rival Clippers on deck. Don't be surprised if LeBron and Company make the mistake of looking right past these Blazers. Also, about LeBron, he is not 100% and could be rested some especially as this game goes on which would allow Portland backdoor cover potential, if that is even needed. Also Anthony Davis appears to have a more serious injury issue he is dealing with now so, even if he plays, he will not be 100% and he could be rested here as a maintenance day given his new injury designation. So, at the end of the day, this is just too many points to give the Blazers in a game like this. Their confidence has been increasing also with recent wins. They will hang around in this game and this one decided by single digits. We'll grab the 10.5 points on offer in this one as of 9 hours before tipoff. 10* PORTLAND (+) |
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01-20-24 | 76ers v. Hornets +11 | Top | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 11 range as of 8 hours before tipoff. This is the 2nd of 4 meetings between these teams this season and the first game was in Charlotte and was a memorable one! The Hornets suffered their worst home loss in franchise history! 135 to 82 was the final score in that one. Now you have a motivated Hornets team at home and playing with some added confidence after winning their most recent game. Yes it was against the lowly Spurs but that was a much-needed win for Charlotte. Now they host a Sixers team off a big win at Orlando last night. Though Embiid will likely play some, with this being the 2nd game of a B2B and now facing a lesser foe, Philly may choose to rest him some as the game goes on. The Hornets will prove to be the more motivated team here and that will help them keep this game to single digits. The hosts remember all too well how the prior meeting played out this season. Embarrassing home court loss, worst of franchise history, means payback here. Hornets keep this one to single digits. 10* CHARLOTTE (+) |
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01-19-24 | 76ers -5 v. Magic | Top | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a -5 as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers recently beat the Magic at Orlando by 20 points so this is a revenge spot for the Magic. However, Orlando will again be without Wagner and he scored 24 of the 92 points the Magic had in the prior game with Philly. Yes, this is the front end of a B2B for the Sixers but tomorrow it is lowly Charlotte that they will be facing. In other words, I am sure this game has the full attention of Philadelphia and the absence of Wagner will be significant here for the Magic. They enter this game having lost 4 of 5 and the fact they are off a buzzer-beater loss versus a divisional foe will not help them in the confidence department here. The high-flying Sixers can take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-18-24 | Wizards v. Knicks OVER 235 | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards @ 7:40 ET - The Knicks in a B2B and off another strong performance on defense. Given that this is a B2B and New York is a double digit favorite with good reason, you can expect a high-scoring run and gun affair in this one. The Knicks used up their defensive energy last night against Houston. Now they face a Wizards team that is having a horrible season and so you know the Knicks are going to be willing to just play a free-flowing game here after last night's stronger effort on the defense end. Washington has scored 120 ppg last 4 games. However, the Wizards also are 7-32 SU this season and have allowed nearly 130 ppg in their 32 losses! Don't be surprised when this game lands in the 130-120 type range which means we have a lot of wiggle room compared to the current total in the 235 range in this one as of 11 hours before tipoff! OVER the total in New York |
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01-17-24 | Mavs +4 v. Lakers | Top | 110-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are in the +4 or +3.5 range in this one and I know many will be looking at the Lakers here in a double revenge spot but I look for the Mavs to complete the trifecta and make the series a 3-0 sweep for the regular season. The key here is the line value with the Mavericks getting solid points as a road dog to a team that has been struggling for quite some time now. The Lakers have lost 12 of 18 games. Also, in those 18 games, ONLY 3 have been victories by more than a 3 point margin. Yes, I am aware Doncic is a game time decision here but Hardaway Jr just had 41 with the extra minutes he is getting because Doncic is out. Couple that with the fact Irving is on fire, the Mavs have won 2 of 3 now even with Doncic out. Long-term this Dallas team is on an 8 of 13 run and one of those 5 losses was by just 5 points. They are the top team in the Southwest Division and the Lakers continue to be over-rated by the betting masses. Los Angeles is not a great team. Let's grab the underdog value here. 10* DALLAS (+) |
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01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped a little from as high as a 4.5 overnight to now being down to as low as a 2.5 as of about 8.5 hours before tipoff. There are so many injury question marks entering this one but I feel the biggest key is that the only significant one for the Sixers is Embiid and yet he just came back from some time off. So, even though this is a B2B spot, Embiid is in good shape and even his coach is expecting him to play again tonight. Keep in mind, the 76ers win was an early game yesterday too at mid-day so that helps in the rest department plus it was a blowout win that was not nearly as close as the final score would lead you to believe. The Sixers were therefore able to rest guys and no one played more than 31 minutes. As for the Nuggets, they have a number of key players on their injury report including Jokic. Now certainly I do expect Jokic to play tonight but with other players likely missing and a number of guys (including Jokic) not 100% if they even do play, the Sixers are the play here at home. Philly's Embiid also would have some extra motivation here because Jokic got his ring with Denver last season and, of course, Embiid and Jokic are two of the best big men in the league! Extra motivation for a 76ers club that still wants to prove it can beat the best and rise the elite level. Lay the short number here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-15-24 | Rockets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 1:10 ET - The Sixers should have Embiid back for this one but, either way, they are off a blowout win over the Kings without him. Philly is now 14-6 at home this season and Houston is only 4-13 on the road this season. This looks like a blowout that favors the host in a big way. The Rockets just lost by 32 at Boston and that was their 3rd loss in 4 games. Philly already won the first meeting by 4 points and that was at Houston and the Sixers did not have Embiid in that one. Again, he could be back for this one and Philly is at home and he did practice fully each of the last two days. Lay the points here for another blowout as the home/road variance is a big edge for the hosts in this one. Laying 7.5 points here (as of 3 hours before tipoff) is a value line in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-14-24 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 232.5 | Top | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns @ 9:10 ET - Portland is back home after losing 3 straight on the road. I expect them to score better now that they are on their home floor but this is a Trail Blazers team that is awful at the defensive end. The Blazers have allowed 123 ppg (not including OT points of course) in their last 8 games. Portland has averaged scoring 117.6 ppg last 10 home games. So the Trail Blazers will surprise many with some solid scoring at home here but their defense will continue its sub-par play and struggle to slow down this quality Suns team. Phoenix has won 6 of 9 games and averaged 116.8 scoring per game during this stretch. Against a bad Portland team they can easily get well in into the 120s here and that helps send this one flying over the total which is in the low 230s. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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01-13-24 | Bulls -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - Great set up here. The Spurs are off B2B wins and it has been over a year since they have won 3 straight! Indeed, you have to go back to December 2022 for the last time the Spurs won 3 games in a row! Adding to the value here is the fact that Wembanyama will be rested for San Antonio plus Chicago is off a loss. The Bulls, in other words, will be hungry here as they had won 3 straight before that loss and the defeat ruined their ring of honor night which also was ruined by the boos when long-time owner Jerry Krause, whose widow was in attendance, had his name announced. Unsurprisingly, the Bulls went on to get destroyed in the 2nd half after that. Also, this was even despite having a double digit edge at the half. So the Bulls will be ready here and the fact this game is on the road is even better for them after that debacle at home. It also keeps this line manageable. Considering that Wembanyama will not play because SA is in a B2B and considering this line is just 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff, this is a great value! 10* CHICAGO (-) |
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01-12-24 | Kings v. 76ers -113 | Top | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7 ET - The Sixers are a PERFECT 6-0 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. It has been a couple years since they ever had a losing streak more than 3 games. I know they are still without Embiid but this is why we are getting line value here with Philly at home at basically a pick'em price in this one. Given the line value and the home court edge, I have no hesitation in backing the Sixers here! Philly has proven before they can win without Embiid and keep in mind their most recent game was at Atlanta and they took the Hawks to OT before ultimately falling just short. That said, no hesitation in now backing them at home as they look to resume the winning! The Kings are off B2B wins but they have only won 3 straight games ONCE in the past two months! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-11-24 | Suns -104 v. Lakers | Top | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Pick'em -105/-110 or +1 @ LA Lakers @ 10 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Suns. They have lost all 3 to the Lakers this season. Los Angeles is off a 1-point win over the Raptors in which they were practically given the win on a silver platter by the refs. Toronto's head coach and, rightfully so, was about as angry as you will ever see a coach after a game. I honestly do not think the Lakers and LeBron "king of the flop" are going to be getting as many calls in the very next game after that complete embarrassment to the league in terms of officiating. Couple that with the fact you have the Suns entering this one off B2B losses and also having lost all 3 meetings with the Lakers this season and you have the perfect set up for an ultra strong effort from the road team in this one. Think about it...why else are the Lakers at home only a pick'em here when they have won all meetings this season? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. Grab the road team in this one! 10* PHOENIX Pick'em -105/-110 or +1 |
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01-10-24 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 132-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are just 6-14 SU last 20 games. Trae Young is expected to play in this one but it is evident from his recent shooting numbers from distance that the right shoulder is bothering him. The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid but this is a "rally the troops" type of game off B2B losses and having proven many times before that they can be okay without Embiid when they have to. If the Sixers win this game straight-up then of course it is an ATS win as they are an underdog of 1.5 to 2 points here as of about 10 hours before tipoff for this one! Philly, including post-season, is a PERFECT 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. That includes a PERFECT 3-0 this season. I look for this situation to make it a perfect 4-0 here on the season and perfect 6-0 long-term. Before these B2B losses Philly was 23-10 this season. The Hawks started the season 8-7 but have gone 6-14 since. This line, even though Atlanta is at home, is still over-adjusted because of Embiid being out. That means value here with the road dog. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-09-24 | Grizzlies v. Mavs -8.5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are laying about 8.5 points here as of 10 hours before game time. This is a great value considering the Mavs are rolling and now the Grizzlies just lost Morant for the rest of the season. This is the final match-up between these divisional foes these season. Shockingly, the road team has taken all 3 so far but this one is an entirely different situation with the Mavericks on a power surge and also able to take advantage of a short-handed Memphis team. Dallas has won 3 straight games and Memphis is off B2B wins but is still 10 games below .500 on the season! They really have struggled when Morant has not been available and now that is the case again here and the Grizzlies are 6-3 with Morant this season and went 7-20 without him! Mavs roll huge at home. 10* DALLAS (-) |
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01-08-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 131-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - The Celtics are dealing with a number of injury concerns entering this one. Boston just hammered the Pacers at Indiana Saturday but look at a key stat from that game and that tells you all you need to know here. The Celtics made 16 of 41 threes while the Pacers made just 8 of 42 threes. bey is very unusual for this high-scoring Indiana team and yet the Celtics won that game by only 17 points. That means if you back out the 24 point edge from beyond the arc, the Pacers win the game OUTRIGHT by 7 points! Considering this plus immediate revenge plus a 2nd chance at home against Boston plus all the Celtics injuries, the home team underdog looks like a great option here. The Pacers will be better on the boards in this one too. It was an all-around embarrassing effort so this is a great opportunity for immediate revenge and they will make the most of it! Grab the points - currently 3.5 as of early game day morning. 10* INDIANA (+) |
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01-06-24 | Jazz v. 76ers -11 | Top | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers have some injury question marks but those are minor and don't be surprised if most, if not all, of those guys play in this one. Also, the Sixers are not just off a home loss, it was the worst loss of the season and it came right here in Philly. The 76ers next game is on the road so don't be surprised if they go all out here in this chance to get right back on track. The Sixers bounce back after almost every loss and the Jazz just got hammered at Boston. Yes, Utah wants to bounce back but they are still on the road. and a lot of their recent wins were over poor teams with bad records. Tonight they face an angry beast on the road and this one gets ugly. This is the type of situation where the Sixers will keep the pedal to the metal all game long! This line has dropped to the 11 range as of about 6.5 hours before tipoff. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-05-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 128-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are stronger at home than on the road and their 13 point win in most recent game does not even do it justice. Philly led by as many as 31 points in that game but then took their foot off the gas. Also, they were able to rest guys in that one and no one played more than 31 minutes. They will be rested and ready for this one and this line is currently in the -6 range but that suggests that the Sixers are only 3 points better than the Knicks on a neutral floor and I disagree with that. The Knicks are improving but they are not that close to the Sixers level. Also, New York is 9-11 on the road while Philly is 13-4 at home. Those are SU records of course but 9 of the Knicks last 11 losses have been by at least 9 points. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-04-24 | Bucks -9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:30 ET - Yes, this line is a big one at 9.5 overnight but the Bucks absolutely should win this one by double digits. Milwaukee is in the 2nd game of a B2B but will still play very well here as they are off B2B losses so they will be fired up for this game against a lesser opponent. The Bucks have not lost 3 straight games all season. As for the Spurs, they are having a very rough season and many of their recent losses, even at home, have come by a big margin. San Antonio has lost 26 of 28 games and each of their last 3 home losses have come by at least a dozen points. The average margin of those 3 home losses was 27 points and another ugly one awaits here as Bucks are fired up to get back on track. 10* MILWAUKEE (-) |
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01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks OVER 247 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:40 ET - This total is as low as a 247 as of 8 hours before tipoff and I am fully expecting this one gets into the 250s at least. The Thunder are off the huge home win over Boston last night. I do not expect the defense of OKC to be at its best after such a big win like that. However, this Thunder team continues to pile up points and the Hawks are certainly known for giving up big numbers! Atlanta, well-rested here and at home, will look to run and gun here and drive Oklahoma City right out of the arena. However, OKC has the firepower to keep up. It sets this one up well to have a great pace with very little defense and plenty of stretches in which the teams are simply trading buckets. Note that the Hawks have allowed 124 ppg in their last 16 games. However, Atlanta is also averaging 122 ppg this season. The Thunder have fared well in B2B spots this season with a 3-0 record and averaging 129 ppg. However, OKC has allowed big points this season too...just like the Hawks. The pacing and situational aspects of this one set it up perfectly to get it into the 250s. These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the league plus the Thunder are hot plus the Hawks have revenge here for a loss at OKC earlier this season. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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01-02-24 | Bulls v. 76ers -10.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 10.5 range as of 8 hours before tipoff and is the final meeting between these teams this season and the Bulls have taken the first two games. This is a double revenge spot for a Philly team that will have Embiid back on the floor for this one as well. Chicago is 15-19 on the season and Philly is 22-10 and there is also strong home/road dichotomy factors here as the Sixers are 12-4 at home and the Bulls are 4-10 on the road. Of course these are all SU records but I see Philadelphia winning this game huge with Embiid back on the floor and the fact this is double revenge including a home loss two weeks ago as well. The Sixers just lost at Chicago on the 30th as well so they enter this game off a loss. Philly is 3-0 L3 times coming off a loss. Blowout alert! 10* PHILADLELPHIA (-) |
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01-01-24 | Heat +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ LA Clippers @ 10:40 ET - A lot of injury issues here on both teams. I am aware of the situation and I know Butler will miss this game for Miami. However, this is too much underdog line value (7.5 as of 9 and 1/2 hours before tipoff) for Miami. The Heat are coming off a loss and a perfect 5-0 SU the last 5 times they were off a loss. Of course a SU win for Miami is a guaranteed ATS win in this one as they are a sizable underdog in this one. We'll grab the points here but we may not even need them. Note that the Clippers are off B2B wins but Kawhi Leonard will not be 100% here even though he is expected to play. LA had lost B2B games before those two wins and the Heat have won 3 straight meetings. Also, the Clippers do not have a win by more than 7 points in any of the past 6 meetings. I am grabbing the points with a hungry Heat team coming off a loss. 10* MIAMI (+) |
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12-30-23 | Lakers v. Wolves OVER 225.5 | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:10 ET - This total currently in the 225.5 range. I am well aware there are some injury and illness question marks for each team entering this one but I expect most of those guys to play and I feel we have value here with this rather low total. Consider also that if some of the bigger guys are out that opens things up for more of a "small ball" style of game and I would not be surprised to see both teams go off big in this one. 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games have totaled at least 228 points. The Timberwolves are a fantastic 23-7 this season and scoring an average of 116 ppg last 10 games. The Lakers are just 3-6 last 9 games but have scored 120 ppg last 10 games! LA has allowed 121 ppg their last 9 games. As you can see, we have a lot of wiggle room given numbers like this as the Lakers and Wolves both currently trending toward higher-scoring games. Even if one or more of the big guys is out for this one, this total still gets there as it is just too low given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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12-29-23 | 76ers -120 v. Rockets | Top | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick -120 @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - We get line value here because the Sixers are again without Embiid but they did just beat a solid Magic team at Orlando by 20 points. Also, that win was no fluke. They had 17 more shots from the field so, in other words, Philly dominated play in that game and, again, it was sans Embiid. The Rockets have lost 3 of 4 home games and 5 of 7 overall. Houston is a solid respectable team but so is Orlando and we all saw what just happened there. The 76ers have a great clubhouse feel right now and they like to prove they can win without Embiid. They will do so again right here on Friday. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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12-26-23 | Jazz -3 v. Spurs | Top | 130-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:10 ET - The Spurs might be without Wembanyama as he has a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable. I know the Jazz have not been good this season but were it not for the Pistons losing 26 games in a row I feel we would all be hearing much more about just how horrific this Spurs run has been. San Antonio started this season 3-2 but they have since gone 1-22 in an awful run of futility only overshadowed by the Pistons nightmare run. Also, 23 of San Antonio's 24 losses this season have been by at least 3 points so laying the number here (currently 3 as of about 11 hours before tipoff) is no problem either. The Jazz have won 5 of last 7 games so they have won more games the past two weeks than the Spurs have won all season long! Only 1 of Utah's last 11 wins have been by less than a 3 point margin. So excellent value here because of the Jazz being on the road for this one and we'll fade San Antonio again here. 10* UTAH (-) |
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12-25-23 | 76ers +3 v. Heat | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - Embiid is out for the Sixers but now they are catching 3 points as of about 9 hours before tip off. Keep in mind, Butler might miss this game for the Heat. Either way, I like the value here of a deep Sixers team catching points because of the absence of Embiid. This is a rare chance to catch Philly as an underdog and, keep in mind, Miami is 0-3 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Including post-season games, the Heat are just 19-19 SU last 38 games. Philly is 29-12 SU last 41 games. The Sixers are 8-1 SU last 9 games overall entering this one and offer exceptional line value here. I know they are without Embiid but the Sixers are so loaded with other talent and depth that they will get the Christmas Day upset here. We'll grab the points just in case but I do not expect to need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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12-23-23 | Spurs v. Mavs -7.5 | Top | 119-144 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are off an ugly 122-96 loss at Houston. They were without so many guys but I expect some back here for this one and Doncic is on track to play! That will be a big boost to the Mavs and they will take advantage of facing a Spurs team that is having a disastrous season. San Antonio started the season 3-2 but has since gone 1-21. This is unreal and the Spurs and 7 of the last 8 losses have been by 8 or more points. The current line on this one is in the 7.5 range and SA likely to get hammered again as Dallas is angry off an embarrassing loss. The Mavericks had won 5 of 6 before tough recent slide but those 5 wins by an average margin of 14.6 points! They can roll this SA team that is an absolute disaster right now. The Mavs already won by 7 against the Spurs earlier this season and that game was at San Antonio and the Spurs were a different team then. They are really lacking in confidence and execution compared to the team we saw early this season. 10* DALLAS (-) |
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12-22-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Current line on this is an 8.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff! There is only one team in the entire NBA that does not have a SU divisional win yet this season and it is the Raptors! Toronto is 0-7 SU in divisional action this season and their road losses in divisional games have come by an average margin of 14 points per defeat. The Sixers have won 7 of 8 and each of their last 6 wins have come by a double digit margin! In fact, the average margin has been 29 points! Philly should roll huge again here as this is their last home game until after New Year's so they will make the most of it. Toronto drops to 0-8 SU in divisional games this season and you can see why I am expecting the win to be by a double digit margin! 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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12-21-23 | Lakers v. Wolves -8 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs LA Lakers @ 9:10 ET - This line is up around an 8 but it is with good reason. James is out for the Lakers and Davis is questionable for LA. Both these teams are off losses yesterday but Minnesota is the much healthier team plus overall the stronger team plus they have the home court edge in this one. Also, the Timberwolves are a PERFECT 5-0 SU this season when off a loss. Additionally, when off a loss in which they allowed 127 points or less, the Wolves are not only 4-0 SU but every single win was by at least a 16 point margin and that means they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season in this situation. Look for this one to make it 5-0 ATS on the season as this will be a home blowout against a short-handed Lakers team. 10* MINNESOTA (-) |
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12-20-23 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs LA Clippers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavs are getting about 2.5 points here and of course it looks easy to lay the 2 or 2.5 with the Clippers here as they have won 8 straight games! Of course we all know what usually happens when something looks too easy, right? Indeed! So the point is this is the perfect time to go contrarian and back the Mavericks as a home dog in this one. First off, note that 6 of the 8 wins in the Clips win streak were home games! Also, one of the only two road wins was against a Jazz team that now stands just 10-17 on the season. The Clippers are still just 5-7 on the road this season and now they face their toughest road test since a 120-114 loss at Golden State. Also, 2 of the other road wins LA has this season were against a Western Conference league-worst Spurs team! So, the point is the Clippers are facing a much bigger challenge here but we get line value because of the current LA hot streak! Let's take advantage as the Mavericks are off a loss and they have gone 7-2 this season when coming off a loss! 10* DALLAS (+) |
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12-19-23 | Suns v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - Big revenge game for the Suns is on deck against the Kings. That said, I like the value here of the big home dog Blazers who are playing this game with revenge and have been playing better of late but are off a tight home loss in which they covered ATS versus the Warriors. The Trail Blazers are still fighting hard for a win to snap their losing streak and they are on the cusp and should battle all the way through again here in this one. The points are a huge value in this one given the revenge situation for the home dog and the lookahead situation for the road favorite in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+) |
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12-18-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -11 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 11 range as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I know this is a big number and normally I do not like to lay such big numbers but this 76ers team, including their bench play, is absolutely on a tear right now. The Sixers have been getting great play from their bench and this has allowed them to sustain blowout margins in recent games and they are at home here and the Bulls have struggled overall this season. Chicago is a little better than their 10-17 record in my opinion but they are dealing with injury issues and the Bulls also are on the road and walking into a buzzsaw here. The 76ers have won 6 straight games and the average margin has been 27 points! Yes they are dominating teams! Each of last 4 wins by at least a margin of 18 points! The Sixers should roll big again here as on deck is a Western Conference foe and that game is not until Wednesday. So Philly is fully focused here. Also, though they won most recent game with Bulls, they lost the game immediately before that in a "home and home" B2B spot last season and that was in Philly. Chicago beat the Sixers in double OT in that one and the Sixers will get their home court revenge here the way I see it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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12-17-23 | Warriors v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:10 ET - I know the Trail Blazers have a bad record but this is a great spot for them. They are at home off a home loss and they catch Golden State traveling off a hard-fought home win over the Nets last night. Yes, Portland has an ugly record and is on a losing streak but they are catching 5.5 points here and they are hosting a Warriors team that has lost 7 straight road games. I know the Blazers are off B2B ugly losses but this followed an 8-game stretch in which only 1 game was a loss by more than 6 points! They will be in this one all the way and, considering the Warriors 0-7 SU run in road games, an outright win is not of the question either! This line is round a 5.5 as of 7 hours before tip-off so we'll grab the generous points in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+) |
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12-16-23 | Mavs v. Blazers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 9:10 ET - This total in the 233.5 range as of 9 hours before tipoff. Both teams rested and the Mavs off a loss and Blazers off 5 straight losses. In other words, these teams will be pushing hard for the win here plus Portland has revenge for losing the most recent meeting with the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed 117 ppg last 4 games but scored 124 ppg last 5 games. The Trail Blazers last 3 games have all totaled at least 236 points and this one should too. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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12-15-23 | Pistons v. 76ers OVER 234.5 | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 234.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - Another very high-scoring match-up likely between these teams Friday. They just met Wednesday and, not only did the game total 240, every single quarter saw at least 56 points scored. I love that type of consistency when you have an over. Now, the match-up shifts from Detroit to Philadelphia and should only help the over even more as Philly scores so well on their home floor. In terms of defensive intensity, the Pistons have proven all season they do not have much of that at all. As for the 76ers, it is hard to be intense on the defensive end when you know you are facing a team that has lost over 20 games in a row and you are nearly a 20 point favorite! From a statistical standpoint, the Sixers have averaged 129 points per game in their 10 home games against teams NOT named Boston! Certainly the Pistons are at the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison with the Celtics. Hence, my expectation that Philly is going to score in the 130s here and that means the Pistons (based on the spread) should score in the 110s in this one. That means we are looking at 240s here, if not 250s. 10* OVER 234.5 in Philadelphia |
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12-14-23 | Cavs +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This line currently in the 9.5 to 9 range as of mid-day Thursday. Boston is the only team that has an undefeated home record this season but this sure looks like too many points! Cleveland is 2-0 the last 2 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. The Cavaliers are 12-8 SU last 20 games but, only 3 of their last 20 games have been losses by a double digit margin! Boston is 8-3 SU last 11 games but only 3 of the 11 games were Celtics wins by a double digit margin. The Cavs did lost this same match-up when these teams met Tuesday but Boston outscored them by 20 points at the free throw point line. In other words, the Cavaliers actually won the game by 13 points if not including free throws and I feel we have excellent line value here in this revenge spot for the Cavs. Grab the points in this one. 10* CLEVELAND (+) |
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12-13-23 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 233 | Top | 129-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Total in 233 range as of early gameday morning. The 76ers are off a beatdown of the Wizards and are proving they are ready to battle even though they are now in a stretch in which they face a number of weak foes consecutively. That includes facing a Pistons team that has lost 20 straight games! Detroit has allowed 124 ppg this season. The Sixers have averaged 131 ppg in their last 8 wins. With this pointspread around an 11, that would put this game at about 131-120 and certainly that sounds about right and that pushes this game into the 250 range for total points. The Sixers had one dominating win defensively in their last 6 games as that was when they beat the Lakers and held them to 94 points but in their other 6 games since Thanksgiving they have allowed 119 points. The 76ers have shown they are willing to play run and gun type games. Given all of the above I expect 250ish here but at least the 240s and that is why I feel we have excellent value with this total in the 233 range as of early game day morning. Pistons off a high-scoring loss against the Pacers and I expect a similar result here as they do tend to score a little better when at home. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -115 | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Pick -115 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Suns will be without Kevin Durant here but look for others to pick up their game in his absence. Phoenix is so strong at home. The Warriors are not good on the road and have been struggling overall. Golden State have lost 10 of 14 games. Phoenix has lost 4 of 5 but were 11-6 this season prior to this. Also, the Suns are 3-0 the last 3 times they have been at home and entered a game off B2B losses. That is their situation here and I am taking advantage of the line value with Durant being out for this one. Look for Booker to have a huge game! 10* Phoenix Pick -115 |
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12-11-23 | Wizards +12 v. 76ers | Top | 101-146 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - These teams just met in Washington and the Sixers only won by 5 points and that was with Joel Embiid scoring 50 in that contest. I realize that the Wizards shot very well in that game, including from 3-point land. But now the Sixers are heavier favorites here - 11.5 to 12 points as of early gameday morning - and this is with Embiid questionable. Embiid did practice fully Sunday but why is he still on the report then? The fact is there is a chance that, facing a 3-18 team, the Sixers might try to give him rest here. Even if they do not rest him fully, there is a chance they will limit his minutes. Either way, the Sixers are likely in for at least a dogfight in which the Wizards keep this one to a single digit margin again. Washington has scorers and has some confidence given the way the last game played out. The Wizards off ugly loss at Brooklyn but this followed a 7-game stretch in which Washington had only 2 losses by more than 5 points! As for the 76ers, they only have 2 wins by more than 11 points in their last 15 games. I feel this is a nice value here as this is a game where Philly knows they have bigger fish to fry and I could see them being a bit flat or disinterested in this one. Even if they do manage to get up by 15 points or so the Wizards could easily backdoor the cover in the final stages too. Just too many points. 10* WASHINGTON (+) |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - There is some extra value baked into this line because the Lakers just absolutely destroyed the Pelicans on the scoreboard. However, LA shot 55% overall plus made 17 of 35 threes. New Orleans had a dreadful shooting game and was outscored by 30 from 3-point land as the Lakers made 10 more threes in the game. Keep in mind, the Lakers entered that game against NO in Vegas having gone just 4-7 in road games this season. The Pacers entered their game, a win over the Bucks, having gone 4-3 on the road this season and 2 of the 3 losses were at Boston and Philly. Of course the Celtics and 76ers are two of the best teams in the league. The point is that Indiana is arguably a better road team than the Lakers yet they are catching sizable points here against an over-rated LA team that is now over-valued after the hot-shooting win over the Pelicans. The Pacers are a very cohesive group. I like the team chemistry this roster has and I feel they will pull together to win this thing. Even if they fall short I look for it to be by one possession. This game could go right down to the wire but I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the 4.5 points. 10* INDIANA (+) |
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12-08-23 | Hawks v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 7 or 7.5 range and this is a bargain in my opinion. Looks like Trae Young could miss due to illness or at least would not be 100% here. That is bad news for a Hawks team that already lost to the Sixers by double digits earlier this season and that game was in Atlanta! Also, Philadelphia won their most recent home game by 44 points over the Lakers and the 76ers are getting healthy again with Oubre having come back as well. The Sixers are off a road game at Washington and have another game versus the Wizards at home up next. That said, the Hawks are certainly getting the full focus and attention of the Sixers right now. When Philly is focused they can blow teams out. They know they let that game at DC be much closer against the Wiz then it should have been and they will respond huge here with a strong home game. The Sixers have 7 home wins this season and all were by double digit margin except the Celtics. The Hawks are definitely not at the level of the C's. In other words, another blowout home win is imminent here! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 89-133 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers in Las Vegas, NV @ 9 ET - The Lakers are such a popular team they tend to get some extra attention in the betting markets and that can put lines out of whack a bit. Lets not forget that this is a neutral site game and they are 4-7 SU away from home this season. Davis should play here but is managing some injuries. James is questionable but I am sure he will play but the point is that neither are likely to be 100% here. Couple that with the fact that the Pelicans have won 8 of 12 games plus they are the healthier team entering this match-up and they have revenge from losing 3 of 4 with LeBron and the Lakers last season. This line is now up to a 2.5 and I like the value with the underdog in this one given all of the above. 10* NEW ORLEANS (+) |