Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -125 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State. Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points. Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time. Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon. Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games. Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses. |
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03-07-24 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State UNDER 138 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Strong defense, slow tempo and a tough shooting venue. Those are the reasons why I like this total to go Under in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game. Morehead State gives up the second-fewest points in the country at 62.5 per game. They rank in the top-10, too, in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. And here's the kicker - the Eagles also are a bottom-10 team in terms of pace. They play extremely slow. That is fine with SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars are playing without rest having beaten Eastern Illinois, 68-57, in a first round OVC tournament game on Wednesday. The tempo in that game was slow and the Cougars were fine playing that way. Morehead State has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games allowing an average of just 52 points. The Eagles are strong favorites to beat SIU Edwardsville, but they will be careful. The Cougars upset them, 61-48, at home during the regular season. The Cougars accomplished that by playing at a slow tempo. They have an above average defense, giving up 70.3 points. The venue should factor, too. The game is being played at Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. This is a neutral site arena with 11,000 seats that traditionally has been hard for players to get used to the shooting sights. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of the previous 43 Ohio Valley Conference tournament games played at Ford Center.
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03-05-24 | Nevada v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total. |
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03-01-24 | Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team. |
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02-28-24 | St. John's v. Butler -120 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada. |
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02-24-24 | Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row. |
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02-22-24 | Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. |
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV. |
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02-20-24 | Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night. |
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02-19-24 | Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars. |
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02-18-24 | Canisius -2.5 v. Siena | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country. |
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02-17-24 | Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday. |
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02-16-24 | Brown v. Princeton -12.5 | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup. |
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02-13-24 | Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton -1.5 v. VCU | Top | 47-49 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers. |
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02-06-24 | Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years. |
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02-03-24 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus. |
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02-01-24 | Albany v. Vermont UNDER 148 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. |
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01-27-24 | Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31. |
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01-26-24 | Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games. |
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01-23-24 | Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points. |
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01-19-24 | Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's. |
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01-18-24 | Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas. |
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01-17-24 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them. |
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01-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup. |
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01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. |
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01-10-24 | The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury. The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday. Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years. Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points. Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman. |
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01-06-24 | Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-05-23 | Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State. |
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12-04-23 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 164.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game. |
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11-29-23 | Davidson +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season. |
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11-27-23 | North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are. I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates. |
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11-22-23 | New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice | Top | 90-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-15-23 | Eastern Illinois v. Illinois State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Illinois has played two Division I opponents so far this season scoring 52 points versus Illinois and 69 against Loyola Chicago. The Panthers were one of the weakest scoring teams last season and nothing has changed much this season.
Illinois State is a Missouri Valley Conference team. That says enough about the Redbirds' defense and style of play. It's slow and methodical. Eastern Illinois also prefers a slow tempo. These teams met last season. Guess how many points they combined for? 103. So I find this total way too high. |
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11-14-23 | Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 | Top | 54-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins. |
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11-07-23 | Presbyterian v. Vanderbilt -18.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number. Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively. However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that. Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams. Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over. San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range. Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament. The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road. The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor. UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers. Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games. I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense. Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves. Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament. It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside. Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points. I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State -120 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12. Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge. Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky. Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5. |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th. Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game. Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns. The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State UNDER 138 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 45 m | Show |
Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest. Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo. Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average. Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU. Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent. I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy. TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory. |
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03-18-23 | Princeton v. Missouri UNDER 149.5 | Top | 78-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri. The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. |
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03-17-23 | Drake v. Miami-FL -125 | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
This is my Game of the Week. Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday. Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong. I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT. Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume. |
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. |
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03-15-23 | UCF +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State. The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival. The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points. |
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03-14-23 | Villanova v. Liberty UNDER 137.5 | Top | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here. Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass. The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis +6 v. Houston | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points. Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game. The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points. Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation. A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points. |
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03-10-23 | Grand Canyon v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. |
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03-09-23 | San Jose State v. Nevada -5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road. I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas. Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games. San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team. Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside. |
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03-07-23 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield -140 | Top | 70-52 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
This isn't the St. Peter's team of last season. The Peacocks haven't been awful as some might have thought they'd be in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but they are far from good after losing so much from last year. I don't see the Peacocks getting past Fairfield in this MAAC Tournament. St. Peter's has the worst offense in the conference. Nationally, the Peacocks rank 352nd in scoring, 361th in field goal percentage and 357th in 3-point percentage. Fairfield isn't much better offensively, but the Staggs play tough defense and just scored 92 points against Quinnipiac. St. Peter's is averaging 58.5 points in regulation during its last six years. The Stags defeated St. Peter's in both regular season meetings, winning 56-52 on the road on Jan. 15 and 67-55 at home on Dec. 3. The 12-17 Peacocks nipped Siena, 73-72, in overtime during their last game. St. Peter's, however, is 0-11 ATS after covering in their previous game. Fairfield is 19-7 ATS the past 26 times against below .500 foes. |
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03-06-23 | Idaho State v. Montana -5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible. Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament. Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court. The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road. |
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03-04-23 | UNLV v. Nevada -8 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday. If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games. So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada. The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory. |
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03-03-23 | Nebraska-Omaha v. UMKC +1.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup. UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31. The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks. UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell. |
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03-02-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Missouri State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
These two teams met twice during the regulation season. There were 127 and 122 points scored during those two games. Now Illinois-Chicago and Missouri State are meeting again with the stakes much higher - the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. So the defensive intensity is going to be even greater. The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This venue is set up for hockey not basketball. Historically there have been a lot of Unders because of the tough shooting background. Illinois Chicago ranks 289th in scoring, 315th in field goal percentage and 336th in free throw percentage. Missouri State has the 32nd best defense in the country holding foes to 63.7 points a game. The Bears, though, average only 65.8 points per game and are even worse from the foul line than Illinois-Chicago. No Missouri Valley team plays at a slower tempo either than Missouri State. |
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02-28-23 | Ball State +8.5 v. Akron | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63. Now look at the line. This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games. The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games. The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category. |
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02-26-23 | Washington +6 v. Stanford | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this. So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12. Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three. The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense. |
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02-25-23 | Utah Valley -132 v. Abilene Christian | Top | 66-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
I find this line to be way off. Utah Valley is the best team in the Western Athletic Conference at 12-3. Abilene Christian, by contrast, is 7-9 in league. The Wolverines shouldn't lack motivation after getting upset on the road by Tarleton State in their last game. Utah Valley had won five in a row until that defeat. The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games. The 21-7 Wolverines are a better rebounding team than Abilene Christian and much better in defensive field goal percentage. Utah Valley ranks fifth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 353rd. The Wildcats are 4-8 in their last 12 games. It's not too much to ask of Utah Valley just to win the game straight-up so I'm backing the Wolverines on the money line. |
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02-21-23 | Iowa State +8 v. Texas | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points. Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close. Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory. Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here. |
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02-20-23 | Minnesota v. Illinois -14.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately. The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. |
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02-19-23 | UNLV v. Boise State -7 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos. So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State. The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games. Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line. The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11. |
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02-16-23 | Eastern Illinois v. SE Missouri State -8 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams. The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28. SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC. The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game. I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made. |
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02-12-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Hawaii -4.5 | Top | 52-51 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number? I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times. Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game. The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home. |
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02-10-23 | Fresno State v. Nevada -9 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack. The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. |
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02-08-23 | Memphis v. South Florida OVER 152 | Top | 99-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games. It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games. There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass. The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss. |
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02-05-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday. Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games. This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996. The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa. Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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02-03-23 | Boise State +6.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season. Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday. The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many. Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points. The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games. |
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02-02-23 | William & Mary +1 v. Hampton | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton. William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record. The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11. William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense. The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests. |
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01-31-23 | Northern Illinois +5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC. Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago. Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes. Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met. |
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01-30-23 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -15 | Top | 53-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts. The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country. South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games. I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference. |
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01-28-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal Poly UNDER 125.5 | Top | 65-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set. Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games. Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game. |
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01-25-23 | Samford +7 v. Furman | Top | 84-91 | Push | 0 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range. Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line. Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times. |
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01-24-23 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +4.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group. Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS. Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games. The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark. |
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01-12-23 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 136.5 | Top | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. Eastern Illinois is not only a terrible 3-point shooting team, too, but also horrendous from the free throw line. The Panthers haven't broken 60 points in three of their last four games. They rank fifth-from-the-bottom in offensive efficiency. So I find this total to be too high given the low quality of offenses and the matchup. |
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01-11-23 | Abilene Christian -6 v. UT-Rio Grande Valley | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots. The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row. Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team. |
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01-03-23 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country. Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes. |
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12-10-22 | Portland State +1.5 v. Cal Poly | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home. Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points. The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game. Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings. |
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11-24-22 | Iowa State v. Villanova UNDER 131.5 | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season. Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under. The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. |
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11-22-22 | UL - Lafayette v. SMU -120 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court. I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch. SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding. The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette. |
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11-16-22 | Texas Southern +31.5 v. Houston | Top | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated. Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas. No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed. Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter. North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke. Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 50 m | Show |
Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games. |