Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -125 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State. Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points. Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time. Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon. Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games. Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country. |
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03-27-24 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago. |
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03-27-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago. Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators -139 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Nashville is a blistering 15-2 in its last 17 games with five consecutive victories. The Predators are riding a franchise-record 17-game point streak. |
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 133-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 133-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers. Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense. Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer. The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.
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03-25-24 | Golden Knights v. Blues +134 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
The home 'dog Blues are not getting enough respect here. All the Blues have done is go 6-1 in their last seven games with the only loss during this span coming to the Avalanche by one goal. St. Louis has scored at least three goals in each of its last seven games. The Golden Knights' defense is down from last season. |
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03-25-24 | Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 | 99-97 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests. San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. |
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03-22-24 | Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona. South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State +12 v. Illinois | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season. The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.
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03-20-24 | Jazz v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low? |
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-20-24 | Heat +2.5 v. Cavs | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points. |
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03-19-24 | Avalanche v. Blues +188 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Colorado is fat and happy having won the first three games of its road trip. This is the Avalanche's final game of that road trip. The Avalanche also are going with backup Justus Annumen in net. The Blues are playing well having won four in a row. They've given up only six goals during this four-game span. |
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03-19-24 | Pelicans -7 v. Nets | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage. Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line. |
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03-17-24 | Raptors +13 v. Magic | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season. Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday. The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic. This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-17-24 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | 129-140 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago. The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games. This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: "With our size, to me, if we're going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It's kind of fits what we should be." There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it's four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time. The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's questionable with a hamstring injury. That's a nice bonus for the Under if he can't play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He's missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it's going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks' offense to fit him back in.
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03-16-24 | Avalanche v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
I'm surprised this total didn't open 7. It is heavily juiced at 6 1/2, but I have to believe each of these high-powered offenses will produce at least three goals.
Both teams should have their legs. Each has been idle since Wednesday. The Avalanche are the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.7 goals a game. They are averaging 4.3 goals during their last eight games. Edmonton is fourth in the league in scoring at 3.5 goals per game. The Oilers have scored 11 goals during their last two games. |
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03-16-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans | 107-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game. |
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03-16-24 | UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home. |
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03-15-24 | Hawks -133 v. Jazz | Top | 122-124 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Just a month into the season, the Jazz made a commitment to go with a youth movement. They haven't been very good because of that during the past 3 1/2 months. From once being at .500 the Jazz are now 28-37. Utah has lost 11 of its last 13 games. The Hawks are a playoff contender. They opened their West Coast trip with an upset loss to the lowly Trail Blazers. Atlanta can't afford to lose a second consecutive game to a bad team. The Hawks meet the Lakers, Clippers and Suns in their next three games. They are not going to be favored in any of those games. The Hawks rolled past the Jazz, 124-97, when they hosted them on Feb. 27. Trae Young missed that game, too. This game holds special meaning for the Hawks because it's their coach, Quin Snyder, first game back in Salt Lake City. Snyder coached the Jazz for eight seasons. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Spurs plus 10 1/2 hosting Nuggets The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They've won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52. So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points? Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That's why. Let's start with the spot. Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets' least important game of their current trip. It's a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup. It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead. During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games. Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That's a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It's a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.
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03-15-24 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Where did this come from? The Blackhawks have scored seven goals in each of their last two games blasting the Coyotes, 7-4, and Ducks, 7-2. |
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03-15-24 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 137.5 | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
St. Peter's ranks 14th in the nation defensively allowing only 64.1 points a game. Quinnipiac has stepped up defensively holding its last four foes to an average of 61.7 points. St. Peter's ranks 339th in scoring. This is a semifinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference so the defensive intensity should be raised. The site, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is notorious for being a tough shooting venue because of its difficult backdrops and structure. The Under has cashed 65 percent of the past 62 tournament games played there.
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03-15-24 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-14-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves. |
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03-14-24 | Providence v. Creighton -8 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits. |
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03-13-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth. |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday. |
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03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks. |
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03-12-24 | Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense. FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games. |
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03-11-24 | Celtics v. Blazers OVER 217 | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The Celtics are going to get their points against a below average Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage. Boston ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game. |
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03-11-24 | Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game. Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th. Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.
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03-11-24 | Warriors -4 v. Spurs | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer. |
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03-11-24 | Capitals v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Washington's scoring has picked up. The Capitals are averaging 4.3 goals in their last 10 games. Winnipeg is going to be placing a lot of emphasis on its attack following a bad, 5-0, road loss to the Canucks two days ago. Jets coach Rick Bowness ripped his team following that defeat. Before that defeat, the Jets had scored 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games.
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday. Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards. "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills. The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.
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03-10-24 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 225 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
It's easy to perceive the Pelicans as an offensive team with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Truth be told, though, the Pelicans are a defensive-minded club. If you discount a 123-114 loss to the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, New Orleans has surrendered an average of only 100.9 points in its last 10 games. The Under has cashed in eight of the Pelicans' past 10 games. It takes two to make an Under work. The Hawks should do their part. Atlanta is an entirely different team without injured superstar guard Trae Young. The Hawks are averaging 119.9 points on the season while giving up 121.5 points. However, in the last seven games that Young has missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points and allowing just 102.8 points.
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03-09-24 | Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Thanks to the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, Arizona has wrapped up another Pac-12 regular-season championship. USC has finally gotten healthy and is coming on scoring 81 and 82 points, respectively, in their last two games. |
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-09-24 | Colorado v. Oregon State +8 | 73-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. |
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03-08-24 | Bucks -135 v. Lakers | 122-123 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Bucks are at least one tier above the Lakers and have strong motivation after suffering an embarrassing, 125-90, road loss to the Warriors two days ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo was especially vocal about the Bucks' bad loss. |
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03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses. |
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03-08-24 | Red Wings -133 v. Coyotes | 0-4 | Loss | -133 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
This is more than a fair price to back the Red Wings, off an embarrassing nationally televised road loss to the Avalanche two days ago. You couldn't ask for more of a step down spot for Detroit as the Coyotes have dropped 16 of their last 18 games. Arizona is playing without rest and the team is in a transition stage due to trades. |
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03-08-24 | Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog. |
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03-07-24 | Spurs +11 v. Kings | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120. |
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03-07-24 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State UNDER 138 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Strong defense, slow tempo and a tough shooting venue. Those are the reasons why I like this total to go Under in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game. Morehead State gives up the second-fewest points in the country at 62.5 per game. They rank in the top-10, too, in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. And here's the kicker - the Eagles also are a bottom-10 team in terms of pace. They play extremely slow. That is fine with SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars are playing without rest having beaten Eastern Illinois, 68-57, in a first round OVC tournament game on Wednesday. The tempo in that game was slow and the Cougars were fine playing that way. Morehead State has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games allowing an average of just 52 points. The Eagles are strong favorites to beat SIU Edwardsville, but they will be careful. The Cougars upset them, 61-48, at home during the regular season. The Cougars accomplished that by playing at a slow tempo. They have an above average defense, giving up 70.3 points. The venue should factor, too. The game is being played at Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. This is a neutral site arena with 11,000 seats that traditionally has been hard for players to get used to the shooting sights. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of the previous 43 Ohio Valley Conference tournament games played at Ford Center.
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03-07-24 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 137 | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
These teams are far better on defense than offense. Cal State-Fullerton ranks 320th in scoring, but 78th defensively. Cal Riverside rates 288th in scoring and 169th defensively. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -4 | Top | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks. |
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03-06-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -3.5 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
I trust Le Moyne's defense much more than Fairleigh Dickinson's offense in this Northeast Conference Tournament matchup. |
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03-06-24 | Villanova v. Seton Hall | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Villanova is in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. Seton Hall isn't - unless it wins here. I believe the Pirates will accomplish that. |
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03-05-24 | Nevada v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total. |
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03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 | 139-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Raptors are just starting to experience life without Scottie Barnes, who is their key player leading them in scoring and assists. Barnes suffered a broken hand two games ago against the Warriors. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Doc Rivers may not be the greatest strategist, but the Bucks have been playing much better defense lately under him than they did for Adrian Griffin. Milwaukee has given up an average of only 97.2 points during its last five games. That would rank first in the NBA by a good nine points if computed out for the entire season. The Clippers rank third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bucks' defensive strength is its perimeter defense. Milwaukee is sixth in 3-point defense. The Clippers would be averaging only 103.2 points in their last five games if you discount their 140-point game against the defenseless Wizards. The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team and are coming off an 89-88 defensive slugfest road win against the Timberwolves on Sunday. The Clippers forced 15 Minnesota turnovers and held the Timberwolves to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Clippers rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace and that was with Russell Westbrook, who is out now. Doubtful the Clippers will want to play up-tempo against the Bucks especially without rest.
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03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Howard is in excellent form winning five of its last six games, including three in a row.The Bison average four more points per game than Delaware State and can exploit the Hornets' porous 3-point defense, which ranks 338th. |
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03-04-24 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
The Bruins' defense and goaltending are down from the past couple of seasons. Boston also has injuries on defense. |
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03-03-24 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
It wasn't just the Pacers losing on the road to the Pelicans this past Friday. It was how they lost. New Orleans thoroughly embarrassed the Pacers beating them, 129-102. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, an emerging superstar, was held scoreless. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-140 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball. |
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03-03-24 | Indiana +9 v. Maryland | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Maryland ranks 332nd in field goal percentage, is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten Conference and its home mystique has been shattered with losses to Rutgers and Northwestern. |
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03-02-24 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 138 | 52-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Both teams are dealing with injuries that have derailed their offenses. |
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03-02-24 | Kansas State +6.5 v. Cincinnati | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Kansas State is coming on and Cincinnati is reeling. So this is a generous amount of points to back the Wildcats in an important game for both teams that should feature lots of intensity. |
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03-02-24 | Wild v. Blues OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Minnesota's defense never really has been right since it lost Jared Spurgeon at the start of this calendar year. The Wild rank 29th in penalty killing and have surrendered an average of 4.3 goals in their last six games.
The Wild have gotten healthier on offense, though. They have produced at least three goals in seven of their past 10 games. The Blues are a mediocre defensive team, too. They've permitted three or more goals in seven of their last eight games. If you discount a 4-0 shutout of the Islanders, the Blues are allowing an average of 4.1 goals in their past seven games. |
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03-02-24 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Even without injured Trae Young, the Hawks are better than the Nets. So I want Atlanta in rapid revenge after the Nets embarrassed the Hawks, 124-97, at home this past Thursday. |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Lafayette is home, in a revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. It says a lot that the oddsmaker has opened the Ragin' Cajuns such a strong favorite against Southern Mississippi. I agree with their assessment. I see the Ragin' Cajuns winning by double-digits as three of their past four four losses have come on the road. |
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03-01-24 | Warriors v. Raptors +3.5 | 120-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
First off, Toronto is more than capable of beating Golden State straight-up. The Raptors did just that in convincing style, 133-118, at Golden State on Jan. 7. |
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03-01-24 | Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team. |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +4 | 86-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is back in the Associated Press Top 25 ranking 23rd. But this isn't the elite Gonzaga team of previous years. They are overpriced against San Francisco, which is 7-1 in its last eight games and 13-1 at home. |
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02-29-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter. |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
You wouldn't know it from their last game, a bad 18-point loss to Nebraska this past Sunday. But the Minnesota Gophers own the best point spread mark in college basketball at 23-4 (85 percent). |
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02-28-24 | Blues v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
There were nine goals scored when the Blues defeated the Oilers, 6-3, just 13 days ago. I can see at least seven goals in this rematch. St. Louis has surrendered a minimum of four goals in five of its past seven games. The Blues are just average defensively with an average penalty kill unit. The Oilers are a top-five offense with a deadly power play. Edmonton is averaging 4.3 goals in its last eight games. The Oilers, though, have reverted back to their old, vulnerable defensive ways and goalie Stuart Skinner has cooled off considerably. The Oilers have permitted at least three goals in 10 of their past 11 games. Skinner has given up four or more goals in four of his last six starts. The Blues got to him for five goals on 29 shots in the last matchup between the two teams.
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02-28-24 | St. John's v. Butler -120 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles. |
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02-28-24 | Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 239.5 | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
It's easy to see why this total is as high as it is. The Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league and have a bottom-three defense. The Pelicans have an above average offense and several big-time scorers. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada. |
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02-27-24 | Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa UNDER 148 | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
I always think defense first when it comes to the Missouri Valley Conference. This quick rematch between Valparaiso and Northern Iowa should result in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans -3 v. Knicks | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I like the Pelicans to cover against the Knicks even if Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum can't play. Both are listed as questionable. The Knicks, for sure, won't have two of their key players with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby both out.
The Knicks are only 3-6 in their last nine games. That record would be 2-7 if the Knicks didn't score a late basket to nip the last-place Pistons, 113-111, at home last night. The Knicks were lucky to win that game when the officials missed an obvious late-game foul that wasn't called. The Pelicans come to New York in a bad mood after losing, 114-106, to the Bulls at home two days ago blowing a 12-point late third quarter lead. New Orleans is just as good on the road as it is at home with identical 17-12 records. New Orleans has won five of its last six away games. |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings UNDER 226 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Below the radar, the Heat have been playing outstanding defense. They've allowed an average of only 101.7 points in their last nine games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 10 games. |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard -13 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Howard is a mediocre MEAC team. But the Bison are vastly superior to Coppin State, which is 2-22 and has lost 15 of its last 16 games. |
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02-25-24 | Predators v. Ducks OVER 6 | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
The Predators have scored well during the first four games of their road trip. They've produced 18 goals in those four games and now draw the defensively-challenged Ducks. Anaheim ranks 30th defensively. If you discount a 5-1 win against the Senators, the Ducks are giving up an average of 5.3 goals during their last six games. The Ducks, though, have scored at least four goals in three of their last five games and draw the Predators playing the finale of a five-game road trip. |
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02-25-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +1 | Top | 119-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets. |
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02-25-24 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Yes, the Hawks are a high-scoring bad defensive team. So, why go Under? Because the dynamics are not usual for the Hawks in this matchup. |
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02-25-24 | Siena +16 v. Fairfield | 64-88 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. |
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02-24-24 | Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149.5 | 68-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful. |
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02-24-24 | CS-Northridge +2.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 65-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team. |
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02-24-24 | Magic v. Pistons +8 | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago. |
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02-24-24 | Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row. |
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02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2.5 | 85-81 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them. |
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02-23-24 | Jets v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Winnipeg's defense has slipped recently. But the Jets still have the No. 1 defense in the NHL. They are likely to have Connor Hellebuyck in net. The Blackhawks are averaging just 1.4 goals in their last 11 games. They have scored fewer than three goals in 13 of their last 17 games. The Jets are averaging only two goals a game during their past 11 games. |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
These are two excellent defensive teams, who both rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace. |
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02-23-24 | Wizards +16 v. Thunder | 106-147 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Emerging Oklahoma City wanted to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break. Statement made as the Thunder impressively buried the Clippers, 129-107, at home Thursday night. Now the Thunder face a far less daunting foe - the Wizards. It's a flat spot for the Thunder. So I'm going to hold my nose and back the Wizards getting this many points. Washington has lost nine in a row, including suffering a 130-110 road loss to Denver last night. The Wizards, though, have a winning point spread mark in their last 11 games. They hosted the Thunder on Jan. 8 and lost by eight points, 136-128.
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