Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -119 | 79 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Browns are 2-0 while the Falcons are 0-2. That's part of the reason that the Browns are laying so many points here. Yet, those records should favor the Falcons. Its only preseason but they'd prefer not to go winless. Yes, the Browns are deep and talented. Winning this game does nothing for them though. The Falcons haven't played their starters much at all but many should see at least a little time here, as they'll use the Browns as a measuring stick to see where they're at, entering the season. Falcon fans are hungry for a solid overall performance from their team. I expect they'll get it and am grabbing the generous points. |
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08-29-21 | Patriots v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. While the final game of preseason doesn't count for much, I believe that the Giants need/want this one a little more than the Patriots. While the Pats are 2-0, the Giants are 0-2. I eked out a cover with the Giants in their last game and that one worked out perfectly. Not only did the Giants get the cover but they also lost SU. That should ensure they play with intensity on Sunday; they want to avoid going winless. The Patriots won 35-0 in their last game, way back last Thursday. They've already accomplished all they could hope for and are focused on the big divisional game against Miami in Week 1. The Giants are fired up this preseason and I believe that'll serve them well here. They've fought themselves. They fought the Browns and they already got into a fight with the Pats in joint practices. These teams met in the final game of the 2019 preseason, as they have done for several years now. The Giants fell behind but didn't give up. They'd ultimately rally for the 31-29 win. The previous year's final, also between these teams, was decided by five points. The year before that, a 2-point win for the Giants and the year before that was a 17-9 win for the Giants. The year before that? A 12-9 win for the Giants. That's a lot of close games, the majority won by NY. I like the Giants' chances of another outright win. However, in what will likely be another close one, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +4 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -103 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. If you didn't already know about Baltimore's preseason success, before the season, you probably do now. The Ravens are once again undefeated and that has a lot of people talking about their longterm NFLX winning streak. In turn, in my opinion, that is providing us excellent value with the Washington Football Team. We're getting more than a field goal with a team playing at home, which should want to win more. I say that because the FT have more reason to want to try and build a winning mentality than the Ravens. Players on both teams are well aware of the Ravens' winning streak. The Ravens will want to keep it in tact but the FT absolutely wants to be the team which snaps it. Chase Young noted: "All I know is that we're going to go out there and play hard with the opportunity that we get. We'll see what happens." I see this one coming down to the wire and I'm grabbing the generous points. |
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08-22-21 | Giants +5 v. Browns | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. Both teams are expected to rest a lot of starters. That said, I believe that the 0-1 Giants are going to be a little more hungry than the 1-0 Browns and I expect a few more of their starters to see time than Cleveland's starters. NY Coach Joe Judge read his players the riot act and worked them really hard this past week. Judge had this to say of his team, after having held joint practices with Cleveland: "I thought our conditioning as a team looked good. That was an encouraging thing right there. Really, you've got to get a factor on that when you really start stacking up against other teams in seeing where your team is. I don't think as a coach you ever feel fully confident in where your team is conditioning-wise until you can measure it against somebody else on a field for a duration of time..." Basically we're getting these points because Cleveland was better last year and because Cleveland is the home team. Yet, the players which make Cleveland better, won't be playing and home field means very little. Note that eight of 10 visiting teams won outright yesterday. Two of thre three visiting teams won on Thursday and Friday, too. In fact, only one Week 2 home team (Miami) won by more than six points. While I like the Giants' chances of also winning this one outright, in a game which could easily be decided in the fourth quarter, I'm happy to grab the generous points. |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts -3 | Top | 18-21 | Push | 0 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. While the Panthers won't play many starters, the Colts have to find themselves a QB. They'll be giving significant time to both Eason and Ehlinger. Sure, neither of those guys has played in the NFL yet. They're going to have to learn fast though, with Wentz down with injury. The Colts want to give them every chance to succeed and build confidence and therefore we should see a little more time from their starters. Importantly, they've also even done some "semi-game-planning" for the Panthers, not the norm for a first preseason game. Reich said this of his QB's: "We think we have a good football team, right, so if one of those guys is our starting quarterback Week 1 they don't have to be a superstar. We want to see them go out and play good football, trust the teammates around them, trust the running game, make the plays in the play-action game and then on third down and red zone, where you gotta be right, be right." Determined to get their QBs on the right track, look for the Colts to take this one. |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. There's some excitement surrounding this game, as Justin Fields is expected to see extensive action for the Bears. At some point, during the season, he's going to take over the starting job from Andy Dalton. It's just a matter of when. Will it be in Week 1 or will Dalton start the first few games. Reports are that he's been great in practice. The Bears' prized rookie will be playing behind an offensive line which is already dealing with some serious injury issues though. The Dolphins were 4-0 ATS under Flores in the preseason in 2019. They won their opening game by seven points, playing hard (two 4th quarter TDs) the entire way. The lone SU preseason loss came by two points. Another game was a 3-point win. The other was a "blowout" win of 22-7. So, three wins and a 2-point loss. We're geting more than a field goal to work with here which is providing excellent value. Grab the points. |
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08-13-21 | Bills v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. One preseason victory obviously won't erase decades of futility. That said, in my opinion, the Lions could use a victory more than the Bills. I expect them to play their starters longer than the Bills and for them to be the team which "wants it more" when the backups are in. While Allen won't play for the Bills, Goff will for Detroit. The Lions need to take their wins where they can get them. Kicking off the "new era" with a win, even if only a preseason one, against a quality team like Buffalo, will be a great place to start. |
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08-29-19 | Steelers v. Panthers +4 | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. The line has gone up from its opener, providing value with the home team. While the Steelers have had a good preseason, it should be easy to look ahead to the next weekend's showdown at New England. The Panthers' bigger name stars won't be playing. However, they do have several backup positions still up for grabs with players fighting for the roster. These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh in the final week of last year's preseason but they also met here at Carolina in Week 4 of the 2017 preseason. The Steelers needed a late 4th quarter TD pass from Dobbs (who will start for them today) to eke out a 3-point win. I say the Panthers return the favor. |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. This line has climbed from its opener to the point where I feel that the home underdog is providing us with excellent value. Note that the Lions are 7-2 ATS their last nine preseason games, when listed as a home underdog of seven or fewer points. With an O-2 SU/ATS record thus far, the Lions should have a little more urgency than the 2-0 SU/ATS Billls. Note that Buffalo is only 5-12 SU (5-11-1 ATS) its last 17 preseason games, when off a double-digit win. Grab the generous points and expect a motivated Detroit team to come away with AT LEAST the cover. |
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08-30-18 | Vikings v. Titans +1 | 13-3 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE (8* MISMATCH). The Titans are winless and first-year head coach Mike Vrabel had this to say "Up until this point, I haven't done a good enough job .. " The Vikings, on the other hand, have nothing to prove. Recall that the Vikings were 2-1 through the first three weeks of last preseason, just as they are now. In Week 4, they went through the motions, getting hammered 30-9 by the Dolphins. Expect the Titans to want this one and that to lead to their first victory. |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +3 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). My "August Game Of The Month" was on Arizona (a winner) when the Cards beat the Rams back on Aug. 11th. Including that victory, the Cards are 2-0 while the Cowboys are 0-2. I believe that winless record is going to provide the Cowboys with some extra motivation here. True, the Cowboys have already lost some players to injury and there's some speculation that they'll be cautious as a result. (That sentiment is reflected in the fact that we're getting points with them.) That said, Garrett noted the following: "We believe it's important to play guys at some point in the preseason to get them ready for regular-season action. We feel like they're more compromised in the regular season if they don't play at all in the preseason." Recall that Garrett's Cowboys beat the Raiders 24-20 in Week 3 of last year's preseason. I'm grabbing the points. |
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08-25-18 | Ravens v. Dolphins +1 | 27-10 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI (8* SHOCKER). While Harbaugh is known as a coach who takes the preseason seriously, I expect the Dolphins to be the team which wants this one more. Lets not forget, because the Dolphins certainly haven't -that the Ravens hammered Miami by a 40-0 margin in Week 7 of last season. Gase and co. want to use this game as a springboard, a confidence-builder and a measuring-stick to show how much they've improved since that low-point of last season. The Dolphins had a good practice week, treating it like a regular season game. Expect them to build off that en route to an "upset" victory on Saturday evening. |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs v. Bears -1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I won with the Bears last week, I like them AT LEAST as much again here. When I played against the Bears in Week 1, I noted that this was the game that they were going to care about the most. Here was an excerpt from that H.O.F. game writeup: "The Bears have a new coach in Matt Nagy. While its true that new coaches sometimes like to "change the culture" by establshing a winning mentality out of the gate, I don't believe that Nagy is too concerned with that. If he is going to take any preseason game seriously, it'll be the one where they face the Chiefs, his former team." The Chiefs game has finally arrived and I still believe Nagy is going to be treating it seriously. Expect his team to emerge victorious. |
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08-18-18 | Bears +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). While I went against the Bears in their opener, I really like them here. The Bears will be playing their third game (due to having played in the HOF Game) compared to Denver playing its second. That should provide an advantage in itself. The fact that they lost both games will provide some added motivation. Keep in mind that both losses came by a combined four points. The Bears have been without their primary offensive weapons. Top receivers Robinson and Gabriel will see action for the first time, while top back Howard should as well. After their last practice, QB Trubisky noted that the Bears offense had taken a big step forward. While I like their chances of an outright win, I expect AT LEAST a cover. |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins +4 v. Panthers | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -108 | 101 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). Getting more than a field goal, I feel that the Dolphins are offering us excellent value. Miami, which lost its opener by two points, has a trio of capable backups all looking to improve their status behind starter Tannehill. Fales started as #3 but is looking to supplant Osweiler for the #2 job. Bryce Petty is also capable. I also like the level of seriousness that we're seeing from Tannehill, who recently called out a rookie running back, telling him to leave the huddle, for missing a block in practice. Miami players are well aware that projections on their season are pretty bleak. Expect them to treat this one a little more seriously than their hosts, leading to AT LEAST a cover. |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (8* MAIN EVENT). While I won with the Jets in their opener, I'm backing the Skins in Week 2. As you may have heard, these teams were involved in a brawl in Sunday's joint practice. That should add a little excitement and intensity to Thursday's game. Playing at home and already 0-1, I expect the Skins to be the hungrier of the two teams. Even factoring in last week's results, Gruden is still 11-6 (SU) in preseason games while Bowles is 7-6. In last week's analysis of the Jets, I noted that Bowles was 3-0 (now 4-0) in his preseason home opener. Hoewver, he hasn't fared as well in other games; last year, after winning their preseason home opener, the Jets stumbled (16-6) in their road opener, the following week. Ditto for 2016. After winning their opening (preseason) game at home, the Jets stumbled on the road in Week 2, losing to these same Redskins by a 22-18 margin. (It was 14-2 Skins at halftime.) Expect "more of the same" Thursday. |
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08-11-18 | Chargers v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 275 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Bruce Arians didn't typically treat the preseason too seriously; the Cards were 7-11 (SU) in NFLX action the past four seasons. Arians is gone now though, replaced by Steve Wilks. The new coach, Wilks knows he has big shoes to fill, as Arians was well-liked by many fans. With the team coming off another tough season, what better way to win over some fans by kicking off the (pre) season with a victory. While he won't have had time to implement all his ideas and systems, I do expect Wilks to demand the most from his players here. Expect them to kick off the new era with a win and cover. |
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08-10-18 | Falcons v. Jets | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 248 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Jets are a modest 6-6 (SU) in the preason, under Bowles. However, a closer look reveals that they're a perfect 3-0 in their preseason home opener, a game where he tends to emphasize winning. Each victory came by greater than a field goal, too. Last season's NFLX opener came in Week 1, resulting in a 7-3 victory over the Titans. The previous season's opener also came in Week 1, a 17-13 win over the Jags. In 2015, the Jets' preseason home opener came in Week 2 against these same Falcons. Bowles' team finished on top by a score of 30-22. The Jets were 6-10 in the regular season last year compared to Atlanta's 10-6 mark. That gives them far more to prove. Expect Bowles to move to 4-0 in preseason home openers. |
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08-09-18 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 26-24 | Loss | -130 | 227 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI (8* MISMATCH). If it seems like these teams often face each other during the month of August, you're not imagining things. They've faced each other 30 times during the preseason. While the Dolphins still have the overall edge, the Bucs have had their number of late, winning four of the past five years. I believe that the Dolphins are going to look to change that on Thursday. Miami players are well aware that projections on their season are pretty bleak. They're off a 6-10 season and most are calling for similar results this year. Playing at home, knowing that the home faithful are already restless, I feel the Dolphins are going to be a little more motivated than their instate guests. Last season, the Dolphins won their preseason opener, a 23-20 home win over Atlanta. Tampa, meanwhile, lost its opener, a 23-12 loss at Cincinnati. Expect more of the same here, the Dolphins doing their best to establish a winning culture here at home. |
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08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bears have a new coach in Matt Nagy. While its true that new coaches sometimes like to "change the culture" by establshing a winning mentality out of the gate, I don't believe that Nagy is too concerned with that. If he is going to take any preseason game seriously, it'll be the one where they face the Chiefs, his former team. The Ravens are 28-12 in 40 preseason games under Harbaugh including a perfect 8-0 the past two years. In fact, they've gone 4-0 in three of their past four preseason campaigns. Last preseason, they outscored teams by a commanding 81-32 margin. Expect more of the same on Thursday. |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). While Week 4 generally doesn't mean a whole lot, I believe that the winless Raiders will be a little more motivated than the undefeated Seahawks. These teams met in the final game of the preseason again last year. That game was pretty uneventful until a wild fourth quarter. (It was 2-0 Raiders at halftime and 5-3, entering the fourth.) A wild final quarter saw Seattle win 23-21 on an INT-return for a TD. Look for the Raider 2nd and 3rd stringers to be a little hungrier than their guests this time round, avenging that loss while earning some bragging rights for their fans, who have a rivalry with the Seattle fans. |
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08-27-17 | Bears +4 v. Titans | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Bears aren't getting much respect in this one. The Titans are expected to be pretty good this year, while the Bears are not. That may be so. However, I believe the Bears, who have a number of position battles going on, are going to show up ready to play. Glennon, who has admittedly struggled, will be feeling the pressure to perform. Thats a good thing. The entire Bears' first team offense should be motivated to achieve success. Part of the reason that Glennon is feeling pressure is that rookie Mitchell Trubisky has already looked better than anticipated and some are already calling for him to be the starter. Anyway, in my opinion, the QB battle figures to serve them well. On the other side of the ball, the Bears' defensive front-seven has been excellent. The secondary has potential to be strong. While I respect the Titans, they're mostly set in terms of who's going to start on opening day. Expect the visitors to be the more motivated team and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. |
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08-26-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* BEST BET). Both teams will take a much longer look at their starters, naturally. I believe this game will be more important to the Bills though. With an 0-2 record, they really want to see Tyrod Taylor and the first team offense have some success. The Bills have a number of positions still up for grabs, with players fighting for the starter's job. At 0-2, the Ravens have less to prove. Injuries have already been an issue and staying healthy should be a priority. Grab the points. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC (10* MAIN EVENT). In what easily could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs. With this being the third game, starters on both teams will see considerably more action. The majority of Reid's starters are expected to see a full three quarters. These teams used to be the same division and played each other regularly, as a result. Games were often close. Last year, they met in the preseason. That was also very close. In fact, Seattle scored a TD on the final play to win by a single point. The Chiefs held a 16-6 lead, going into the fourth. While I'm grabbing the points, don't be surprised to see the Chiefs, who are off a dominant victory over the Bengals, win this one outright. |
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08-24-17 | Panthers v. Jaguars | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). With this being a Thursday game, it should be noted that the schedule sets up very nicely for the Jaguars. They played here last Thursday. On the other hand, the Panthers played at Tennessee on Saturday. So, the Jags play with a full week between games and no travel. The Panthers have to travel and have two day's less worth of time in between games. Both teams lost last week. However, the Jags figure to have a little more urgency here. They managed only eight points in their loss against the Bucs and none of those came until the fourth quarter. While one could argue that the first stringers have been bad, I believe that its going to cause them to be extremely motivated here. This is a team which desperately needs to gain some confidence and to figure out its QB situation. While the whole world is seemingly against Bortles, he'll be motivated to show he's still the guy. Likewise, Henne and Allen will look to show that the job should be theirs. With the homefield, motivation and scheduling advantage, expect the Jags to earn the win and cover. *GOW |
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08-19-17 | Bears v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). I like the Cards' chances of jumping on the Bears early here. Arizona, which has had an extra game due to having played in the HOF Game, is off a solid victory over Oakland last time out. The Bears' first team offense struggled in their opener. Two turnovers and a 3-and-out in their first three possessions. Meanwhile, the Bears 2nd and 3rd stringers on defense gave up a pair of late TD's last week. While the Cards still aren't expected to play their starters for a full half until next week, I still think that the extra game played will serve them well. Off last season's disappointment, I believe that they're going to be looking to regain their swagger, particularly here at home. Expect a convincing victory. |
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08-18-17 | Vikings +4 v. Seahawks | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (8* MAIN EVENT). This line has climbed from its opener. Getting more than a field goal with Mike Zimmer's Vikings is offering excellent value, in my opinion. While staying healthy is always a top priority, Zimmer typically takes the preseason more seriously than many coaches. Last week, when Zimmer was returning to the field for the second half, when asked about the Vikings first half, he had this to say to a reporter: "There wasn’t much that I liked, to be honest with you." (The Vikings would go on to win the second half and the game.) That effort, coming on the heels of last year's second half meltdown - you may recall that they finished on a 3-8 slide, after starting 5-0 - should ensure we get a fairly motivated effort tonight. These teams played here on this very day (Aug 18) last year. The Vikings won 18-11. A similar result won't surprise. |
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08-17-17 | Ravens v. Dolphins -2.5 | Top | 31-7 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. If just going by the scores, one could easily argue that the Ravens were more impressive than the Dolphins in Week 1 of the preseason. Miami barely beat the Falcons, outscoring the defending NFC Champs by a 13-0 margin in the fourth quarter to earn a 23-20 victory. The Ravens, on the other hand, won by a convincing 23-3 margin over Washington. However, all is not as well in Baltimore, as that score might suggest. The Ravens recently lost starting guard Alex Lewis to a season-ending injury. That makes it a ridiculous NINE players that they've lost since June 1st alone, either due to injury, retirement or suspsension. With all those personnel issues, already with a win under their belt and playing a Week 2 preseason game on the road, the Ravens' primary emphasis should be on avoiding further injury. There was originally some talk of injured starting QB Joe Flacco getting some time in during the preseason. However, thats not going to happen. Flacco's backup (Mallett) had a 57.2 QB rating in the opener, going 9 of 18. Mallett, who recently had a 5-interception day at practice, failed to properly take advantage of the good field position which the defense, which admittedly played well, provided. Of course, the Dolphins are also without their starting QB, as Tannehill is out with injury. Matt Moore is more than capable though, having won three of four games he started in 2016. While Moore didn't get much time last week, he should get more this week. Reports indicate that newly acquired Cutler will get the start though. Cutler, who thrived under Gase previously, "didn't unretire to sit on the sidelines." Though he's unlikely to see too many snaps, he's going to want to make a good impression. Likewise for Moore, who can't be too happy about Cutler's signing and who will want to have a strong game to make a case for being the starter. While its true that the Dolphins have also been hit by injuries, playing their final home game of the preseason, I expect them to be more motivated than their guests. Ultimately, I expect that to lead to a win and cover. |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 311 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. While both teams will place a high priority on staying healthy, I expect this game to mean more to LA. The Seahawks have zero to prove while the Chargers are looking to win over their new fans and establish a winning mentality. Expect them to go a little harder for the "W" and for that to ultimately make the difference. |
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09-01-16 | 49ers v. Chargers -2.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SD. The 49ers beat the Chargers in last year's preseason finale. I expect SD to return the favor this season. Chip Kelly, the 49ers third coach in three seasons, likely isn't feeling the same type of pressure that San Diego's Mike McCoy is. Kelly, who saw his Eagles lose by six in last year's preseason finale, will likely be given time to "work his magic." Despite going 4-12 last season, McCoy got a vote of confidence from John Spanos, SD's president of football operations. That said, he knows that he's going to need a lot of improvement from his team in order to keep his job, particularly as they again don't know where they will be playing next season. That arguably makes winning over the (remaining) SD fans more important than ever. Note that the Chargers lost badly in both road games but won big in their lone preseason home game. I expect McCoy's team to want this one a little more and that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. Condition: Play on SD at -3 or better. No play if line climbs above a field goal. |
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09-01-16 | Packers v. Chiefs -3.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KC. The Packers and Chiefs will be meeting in the preseason for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. Most recently, the Packers hammered the Chiefs in Week 4 of the 2014 season. At the time, GB QBs (Flynn and Tolzien) were competing to be Rodgers' backup; both had big games. (Neither is with GB any longer.) Reid wasn't exactly pleased with his team that day and he followed it up with a perfect 4-0 preseason record last year, including a 24-17 road win in their Week 4 game. After that game, Reid was quoted as saying: "We're in America so you play to win whether it's ping pong or a hot dog eating contest." This season, however, the Chiefs are only 1-2 including a tough loss in their lone home game. That being the case, I expect Reid to "play to win," at least a little more than McCarthy, who's team is 3-0. It should also be noted that GB is coming off a game on the West Coast, as the Packers played in California last week. Look for KC to finish on top, picking up the cover along the way. Condition: Play on KC at -4 or better. No play if line climbs above -4. |
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09-01-16 | Patriots v. Giants -2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. As has been the case in recent years, these teams met (at Foxborough) in Week 4 last preseason. The Giants won that battle of reserves by a score of 12-9. The previous season (2014) also saw the Giants beat the Pats (16-13) in the final game of the exhibition season. Including those results, the Giants have won 16 of 25 preseason contests in this series. I believe they'll be a little more motivated than the Pats again this year and I look for another victory by a field goal or more. While the Pats may be 3-0, they haven't enjoyed an unbeaten preseason since back in 2003. Its only preseason but Giants' fans are already getting nervous about new coach Ben McAdoo and this year's team. McAdoo, who has obviously heard the rumblings, had this to say after last week: "We need to improve, we need to make sure we are going forward so (that) we give guys opportunities to showcase their abilities .... we need to execute better and we need to play forward. We can’t be going backwards." I like the Giants to continue their (preseason) success in this series, covering the small number along the way. Condition: Play NY at -3 or better. No play if line climbs above a field goal |
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09-01-16 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. I felt pretty fortunate to win with the Jaguars last week. Bortles and the starters got outplayed by the Bengals but a big fourth quarter comeback led to a win and cover. While I wasn't surprised to see the Jags "play to win" in the fourth, I also had expected more from the starters. In Week 4, as is generally the case, a lot of those same "backups" that led the comeback charge last week will see some extra playing time. While they won't see a ton of action and some none at all, I believe that the Jags' starters will also be motivated to improve. As Jacksonville's starting left-tackle (Kelvin Beachum) noted: "There's a ton of urgency. There's always urgency when you're playing the game of football. There's never a dull moment. … This is your livelihood. This is how you pay your bills. This is how you feed your kids. It's a heightened sense of urgency. That improvement needs to happen. We have a ways to get better in a very short amount of time." While I may have been a little fortunate to win with the Jags last week, my victory on Miami, against these same Falcons, didn't need any extra "luck." The Dolphins were up by four at halftime and proceeded to outscore the Falcons 10-3 in the second half. While the Jags' reserves were having a big fourth quarter, the Falcons' reserves didn't score a single fourth quarter point. Both teams saw last season's Week 4 preseason game decided by a single point. Another close one won't surprise and I'm grabbing the points. Condition: Play Jacksonville at +3 or better. No play if line dips below a field goal. |
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08-28-16 | Bengals v. Jaguars -1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 129 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Its true that the Jags have not been a particularly good preseason team. An 0-2 SU/ATS record so far this year brings them to 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS the past few preseasons. I believe they're going to want to win this one though - and also that they've got the talent to do so. As you know, the Jags' struggles haven't been limited to the preseason, as they've also been terrible during the regular season for years. Last year, the team took a major step in the right direction though. With Bortles off a season which saw him throw for 35 TDs and better than 4000 yards and with some offseason upgrades to the defense, expectations are higher than they've been in years. I believe that the Jags will want to build on that excitement and attempt to "instill a winning culture" by going all out for the win tonight. The last thing this young team wants/needs is to go 0-3 its first three preseason games, particularly as Game 4 doesn't typically mean much. Look for Bortles, who has been fairly sharp in limited playing time and co. to be the more motivated team, giving Jags fans reason for continued optimism. NFLX GOM |
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08-26-16 | Packers v. 49ers | Top | 21-10 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF. As you know, Week 3 is the week where the starters generally see the most time. That being the case, many may be tempted to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. After all, Rodgers, Nelson and co. will finally be on the field. However, I believe that the 49'ers will want "want it a little more" and that they'll be the team which ultimately comes away with the win and cover. While the Packers offense is basically set, the 49'ers have a QB battle going on, now that Kaepernick has returned. Even though the Packers should be happy to get on the field, this is a team that doesn't particularly like playing preseason games. Their feelings surely weren't hurt when they didn't end up having to play the HOF Game and they likely aren't thrilled to have to travel out West - their longest "road trip" of the pre or regular season. Looking to establish a winning culture, Kelly's team comes out on top. Condition: SF at -3 or better. No play if line goes above -3. |
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08-25-16 | Falcons v. Dolphins -2.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI. As you know, Week 3 is the week where the starters generally see the most time. That said, I believe that most of the Week 3 games still see "the team which wants it more" covering the spread, more often than not. True, the game won't be at Miami, as this game will be at Orlando. The Dolphins still have reason to win though. Last week saw them get blown out 41-14 by Dallas. While Tannehill played well, finishing with a 119.2 QB rating, the majority of the other players did not. They'll be looking for a much improved effort here and I expect them to get it. The Dolphins have a new coach in Adam Gase. Gase has stated that he wants to improve the running game and correct the mistakes for last week. I believe that he's going to want to establish a winning culture and that he'll take this game quite seriously. Foster, Ajayi and co. should have success against a mediocre Atlanta run-defense. Look for the Fish to finish on top, covering the small number along the way. Condition: No play if line goes above -3. |
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08-20-16 | 49ers +5.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF. The Broncos had more success than the 49'ers in Week 1. Obviously, they were a much better team last season. Throw in the fact that they've also got a QB competition (along with some other players competing for jobs) going on and its easy to see why they're favored. While I understand why those points would lead to the Broncos being favored, that doesn't mean that I think they should be laying such a large number. In fact, the first two of those three points (better in Week 1 and better last season) are arguably reasons why the 49'ers might be the more motivated team for this one. Kaepernick is again out and thats not necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind that the 49ers actually took a 13-7 lead into halftime last week. Gabbert will get the start and he was sharp in joint practices. He had this to say, "We were clicking. I think we missed maybe one throw, but for the most part, the guys were running hard, the offensive line did a tremendous job blocking that front seven and just delivered the ball on time. The guys made some plays." Jeff Driskel has eyes on the starting job. He worked out with the Broncos in the spring and he'll be anxious to show them what they missed. While the playbook might be limited for him, newly signed Ponder may see some action late. An experienced veteran, he's impressed in limited time since joining the team. I believe both teams may want this one a little more than is normal for a second week preseason game but ultimately I look for the 49'ers to earn AT LEAST the cover. Condition: Play on SF at +4 or better. No play if line dips below 4. |
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08-19-16 | Cardinals v. Chargers | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 103 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SD. The Chargers have dominated Arizona in the preseason and I expect that to continue this evening. San Diego thought it had lost its team. The Chargers are still in town (for at least this year) though. The fact that the Chargers allowed more rushing yards than any other team in Week 1 was concerning to the coaching staff and they're determined to improve. Since that Week 1 loss, the Chargers have practiced in pads against the Cards twice. They've also reviewed the game film from Week 1 and held a practice which emphasized lessons learned and issues from that review. As of this writing, it remains unclear about whether or not Arizona coach Bruce Arians, who was hospitalized overnight, will be on the sidelines tonight. While I don't think that Arians' health will have an effect on the game either way, I also don't think that Arizona will want it quite as much as its hosts. Charger fans haven't had much to chear about in recent seasons and I expect the team to be motivated to reward them with a victory. Condition: This is a play on SD at -3 or better. No play if line climbs above -3. |
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08-18-16 | Bears +4 v. Patriots | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Patriots were certainly better than the Bears in Week 1 of the preseason. New England hammered the Saints 34-22 while the Bears were getting trounced 22-0 by the Broncos. I believe those results will have the Bears wanting this one a little more than the Pats. That was actually the Bears' worst preseason loss in 35 years. While it wasn't for lack of effort, the Bears were pretty bad in all facets of the game. I believe that they'll be determined to improve across the board in this one. Getting to practice with the Pats beforehand should help them be more ready. John Fox is staying positive and actually called the Bears' effort against Denver "outstanding." Fox went on to say: "...its a great teaching tool watching that tape. Negative things that happened are very easily fixed. I think the guys responded to it well. We expect more – they know it." While the Pats obviously want to get ready for the regular season, they have less to prove than the Bears. Bottom line is that I expect Chicago to be the "hungrier" team and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. |
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08-13-16 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -104 | 217 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. With the NFL returning to LA, there's a little more excitement in the air for this one than is normal for a Week 1 preseason game. The Rams appear to be a popular side, as many expect them to be motivated to begin the new era with a victory. Sure, there's a lot of excitement but are the Rams really ready to be laying more than a field goal in a Week 1 preseason game. Not in my opinion. The starters won't see much action, as per usual. While all eyes are on #1 pick Goff, Dallas' Dak Prescott has been making a serious push to be the Cowboys' backup and I won't be surprised to see him end up with the superior numbers to Goff. Jerry Jones helped play a role in getting the Rams back to LA. Knowing how many fans are in attendance, I expect him to pass down the message to treat this one a little more seriously than usual. I'm grabbing the generous points and won't be surprised to see an upset. Condition: This is a play on Dallas at +3 or better. No play if not getting AT LEAST a field goal. |
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08-13-16 | Seahawks v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -115 | 213 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. I believe that the Chiefs will be a little more motivated than the Seahawks for this one. Alex Smith and the starters should get roughly a quarter, which should be a little more than the Seattle starters see. After that, newly acquired Nick Foles should close out the half. While he doesn't know the full playbook yet (he does know some, from his time with Reid as a rookie) he'll be motivated to impress his new team and provides a quality QB coming in behind Smith. Looking back at Week 1 of last year's preseason and we find that Seattle lost at home vs. Denver. Meanwhile, the Chiefs hammered the Cardinals by a score of 34-19. KC would go on to beat Seattle the next week and finish the preseason at 4-0, outscoring teams by a dominating 106-59 margin. No other AFC team managed even 90. That preseason success seemed to translate pretty well to the regular season as the Chiefs won their reg. season opener and finished with 11 wins. Look for Reid and co. to start things off with another win and cover. Condition: This is a play on KC at -4 or better. No play if line goes above -4. |
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08-11-16 | Broncos v. Bears -1.5 | 22-0 | Loss | -106 | 169 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I believe that Bears coach John Fox is going to want a "W" a little more than he normally might. Why? Well, Fox is a former coach of the Broncos and also of the Panthers. He took both teams to the Super Bowl but lost each time he got there. Last year, he had to watch his two former teams play each other in the big game, this after having seen his new team go an ugly 6-10. A win tonight won't make things better. But it's a start. I'm not probably as down on Denver's Mark Sanchez, who is expected to start and play the first quarter, as most probably are. Obviously, he'll be hoping for a good showing. That said, I still feel that the Bears will have a little more to prove overall. Former Bronco Jay Cutler is among the Bears looking for a big performance. In addition to Cutler and Fox, the Bears have a large number of other coaches/players who used to be with the Broncos organization. I expect them to be the more motivated team. Condition: This is a play on Chicago at -3 or better. No play if the line climbs above a field goal. |
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08-11-16 | Panthers v. Ravens -1.5 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 169 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALTIMORE. I believe the Ravens will "want" this one a little more than Carolina. Off a dominating season and Super Bowl appearance, the Panthers have little to prove. A win in their preseason opener doesn't mean much. Only a return trip to the SB - and victory once they get there - will rid the bad taste they've got left in their mouths. Baltimore, on the other hand, has much to prove. The Ravens are off a disastrous season and immediately want to re-establish a winning culture. Ryan Mallett, in the last year of his contract, is expected to start for the Ravens and I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder. Harbaugh had this to say of Mallett: "Ryan has been nothing but a pro. He’s been a hard worker, he's been a pro. Players like him. He’s charismatic. He knows the game. He has talent; there's no question he can throw the football and he can move around. He's got a lot of great football in front of him, and we’re happy he’s our guy." Mallett, for his part, had this to say: "“I wouldn't play if I didn’t want to be a starter ... I'm here to play football. I'm ready for the season to get started. I'm ready for Thursday night. I expect Mallett and co. to finish on top. 9* Roast Condition: This is a play on Baltimore at -3 or better. No play if the line climbs above a field goal. |
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08-11-16 | Bucs v. Eagles -3 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 168 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the EAGLES. While a number of starters won't see action, I believe that the Eagles are favored for good reason. Pederson wants to make a good impression on the city and the passsionate Eagle fans. Likewise, the players want to make a good impression on the new coaching staff. True, Koetter is also a new coach, so he and the Bucs' players are in the same boat. He's not playing in Philly though, where Eagle fans "demand" a winner. That said, I believe Pederson will be a little more motivated than Koetter. The latter was quoted as saying: "...The main thing on Thursday night is just evaluating our guys, especially guys we haven't seen." Meanwhile, Pederson had this to say: "....we're going to stay aggressive. I’m thrilled. I’m looking forward to it. I’m just kind of keyed up for it." I'm rolling with Pederson and co. 8* Condition: This is a play on the Eagles at -4 or better. If the line becomes worse than -4, than I suggest passing. |
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09-03-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. St Louis Rams -2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on the St. Louis Rams as my 10* Personal Favorite. |
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09-03-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Green Bay Packers | 10-38 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 8* Roast. |
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08-29-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. Dallas Cowboys -1 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -125 | 116 h 22 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Dallas Cowboys as my 10* Personal Favorite. |
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08-28-15 | Detroit Lions v. Jacksonville Jaguars -1 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Friday Main Event. |
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08-24-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 11-25 | Win | 100 | 149 h 37 m | Show |
CINCINNATI at TAMPA BAY |
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08-23-15 | St Louis Rams v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
ST. LOUIS at TENNESSEE |
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08-21-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Jets +1 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show | |
ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW YORK JETS |
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08-15-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Arizona Cardinals as my 10* Personal Favorite. The Cardinals kick off their exhibition slate against the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday. Arizona knows the importance of the preseason after suffering so many injuries last year. The Cardinals had to reach deep down the bench for replacements and they’ll be taking a good look at their second stringers Saturday night. That means plenty of motivation for Arizona’s second and third teamers this preseason. The Cardinals are expected to have starting QB Carson Palmer in for a quick set before giving way to backups Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas, who got starting experience when Palmer went down with a knee injury last season. Arizona’s QB depth is far greater than Kansas City, which turns to Chase Daniel and Aaron Murray after No. 1 Alex Smith. With the Cardinals motivated this preseason and plenty of experience under center, we see solid value with Arizona in Week 1. I’m playing on Arizona as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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08-14-15 | Denver Broncos +4.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Denver Broncos as my 10* Best Bet. |
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08-14-15 | NY Giants v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Personal Favorite. |
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08-13-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bears as my 9* Roast. |
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08-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Diego Chargers -3 | 9-12 | Push | 0 | 39 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Here we have two teams that have lost back to back weeks. Both the Chargers and Cardinals played Sunday, so there's been little time to game plan for the final preseason contest. Ensuring things are kept even more vanilla than per usual is the fact the Cardinals and Chargers will open the regular season against one another, 11 days from now on Monday Night Football. San Diego is the home team, so if anything they'd like to win one for the fans. They did win their lone preseason home game so far, 27-7 over Dallas in Week 1. Arizona lost its only road game, 30-28 at Minnesota. Home teams are 33-16 straight up this preseason, winning 68 percent of the time. I've had a pretty good beat on this Chargers team so far in the preseason. I had them in their win over Dallas and then the Over in the Week 2 game vs. Seattle. So I feel here that they'd like to go out a winner. San Diego did beat Arizona last year in the preseason, 24-7. They also may want to atone for a disastrous performance in the final game, a 41-6 loss to San Francisco. Offensively, the Cardinals failed to do much last week against Cincinnati. That was with the benefit of starters playing. Rookie QB Logan Thomas will play the entire game this week. While he's looked pretty good in some limited duty so far, I'm not ready to say he's ready to quarterback a NFL team for an entire game. Kellen Clemens will handle most of the snaps tonight for San Diego. He looked good the first two weeks, including 150 yards and 2 TD's vs. Seattle, before barely playing at all last week. His absence I think was a major reason why the Chargers failed to score any points in the second half last week. 9* personal favorite. |
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08-28-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Oakland Raiders +5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on OAKLAND. Because of how good Seattle has been in the preseason under Pete Carroll, we have a very unusual line for this time of year where the road team is actually laying 5.5 points. I can't recall a time where I've seen a road team favored by this many points in preseason. Part of that has to do with the home team being the Raiders. But I don't see much of an emphasis being placed on winning for Seattle here. So, I'll take the points. Oakland's second and third team offense has actually performed admirably this preseason. They have scored late touchdowns in all three games. While that hasn't led to a cover, two of the team's games have been decided by four points or less. Two of the team's three TD's last week came in the fourth quarter. That's an encouraging sign here because those are the players who will be seeing the majority of time this week. Seattle's first team offense has been incredible so far. But Russell Wilson and company will not play in this game. Last week saw the team score just three points in the second half after Wilson departed. Again, an encouraging sign considering who is likely to be playing this week. The Raiders may also be motivated by the fact that they've lost three years in a row to the Seahawks in the preseason finale. I just think that 5.5 points is too many to be laying in a game, on the road, where winning isn't necessarily a priority. Road favorites are not only 2-5 ATS in the preseason, but 2-5 straight up as well. 10* best bet. |
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08-23-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Buccaneers have opened the preseason 0-2. Normally, that isn't a huge deal, but it is when you have a new head coach. Lovie Smith has yet to taste victory on the Tampa Bay sideline and after last week's pretty poor showing, he should have his team super motivated this week as they visit Buffalo. I'll be taking the points. The Bills have played three preseason games so far. They started by losing the Hall of Fame Game, giving up a late TD to the Giants when all the reserves were in. Since then, they beat Carolina by two and lost to Pittsburgh by three, both on the road. So this will be their first time playing in front of the home fans, who are restless about the team's future. Normally, you'd perhaps want to back a team that has an extra game under its belt and is playing at home for the first time. But all of the Bills games have been close (all decided by four points or less) and for all their struggles, the Bucs have only lost by six points in both of their games. Tampa Bay was robbed of a potential score last week when rookie WR Mike Evans made a costly fumble at the 1-yard line that went through the end zone for a touchback. If he doesn't do that and the Bucs punch it in, we're possibly talking about them coming off a win here. Speaking of rookie wide receivers, Sammy Watkins left last week's game with an injury for the Bills. So they are not going to push him too hard here. Tampa Bay still has a bit of quarterback battle going on with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. Buffalo knows EJ Manuel will be their man. The road team has more to prove this week. 10* best bet. |
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08-22-14 | Oakland Raiders +7.5 v. Green Bay Packers | 21-31 | Loss | -125 | 72 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OAKLAND. Getting the "hook" (extra half-point) here is nice and while I don't anticipate many books moving the number above -7, some have and I would highly recommend shopping around as sometimes one-half point can be the difference between a push and a winning ticket. The Raiders are 0-2 ATS this preseason, but 1-1 straight up as they beat Detroit last week 27-26. This after a pretty lackluster showing in the opener against Minnesota where their lone score came with 1:25 left in the game (lost 10-6). Last week was obviously a tremendous improvement offensively with rookie Derek Carr throwing a TD pass (before leaving with a concussion) and for a second straight week Matt McGloin led a TD drive in the final 90 seconds, this time to win the game. So, Oakland has actually been a pretty tough out this preseason. They are not a public team, so we can take advantage of what I feel is a pretty generous number for preseason. Sure the Packers starters could very well outplay their Raiders counterparts, but the Silver and Black have proven themselves able to score late. I'd imagine that the potential for the "back door" still being open at the end of this game might be there, if need be. Green Bay has played its two preseason games on the road. They too won last week after dropping the opener by four points. However, their second game was a lot more lopsided than the Raiders as they won 21-7 in St. Louis. Aaron Rodgers admittedly looked quite good in his 2014 debut, but even with this being the dress rehearsal game, I don't see him getting the extensive work you will see from other QB's this week. You would have to imagine this game means more to the Raiders, who are still trying to break in new starter Matt Schaub. Take the points. 9* main event. |
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08-16-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans -2 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 121 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Things could not have gone worse for Bill O' Brien in his return to the NFL. His Texans were shutout 32-0 by Arizona last week in the preseason opener. But the good news is that no one will remember that result if his team is able to bounce back this week at home vs. Atlanta. **Note that it looks as if I'm not alone in calling for Houston to have a bounce back performance. Bet this game ASAP as I already have. While the Texans were getting blanked last week, the Falcons won their preseason opener 16-10 over the Miami Dolphins. But wins this time of year have been rare under Mike Smith. Atlanta was just 7-17 straight up in his previous six seasons and 3-9 ATS the previous three. Homefield advantage definitely seemed to matter in Week 1 of the preseason with the home team taking 14 of the 16 games played straight up. Both of these teams games fell into that pattern. Even more interesting is that 1st year head coaches were 4-0 straight up at home last week. You'll recall that I took Ken Whisenhunt and Tennessee last Saturday at home vs. Green Bay. The number for the Titans was less than the standard three points, which is why I jumped on the Texans so quickly here. As I said last week,"there's no better way to get the fans believing in your program than by starting out the season with a victory, regardless if its "only" preseason or not." This is now especially important for O'Brien after his team got walloped last week. Having already won its preseason opener and with the "dress rehearsal" game next week, I don't think that the end result will mean much to Atlanta here. It will for Houston. 10* personal favorite. |
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08-09-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. This will be our first look at the Titans under the direction of Ken Whisenhunt. With the game taking place at home, I expect an added emphasis to be placed on winning for the team's new coach. There's no better way to get the fans believing in your program than by starting out the season with a victory, regardless if its "only" preseason or not. The opponent will be Green Bay, a team that has little to prove in the preseason. QB Aaron Rodgers leads a team that many feel can reach the Super Bowl. However, after a season where a major injury cost Rogers several games and almost kept the Packers from the playoffs, don't expect to see him on the field for long when the games "don't count." However, in Tennessee, QB Jake Locker has much to prove. Coming under the tutelage of Whisenhunt can only help him. Last season saw "Coach Wiz" reinvent the career of San Diego QB Philip Rivers, who had the best passer rating of his career. The Chargers offense placed in the top five in yards per game and Whisenhunt was named the top assistant in the league. Thus, it was no surprise to see him get his second chance at being a head coach in this league. Remember it was only a few years ago that he took Arizona to the Super Bowl! Green Bay's offense certainly didn't do a lot last year in the preseason. In fact, they averaged only 9.2 points per game in going 1-3 both straight up and against the spread. Because of the teams' different profiles nationally, we are able to get a pretty good number here on the Titans at home. Not only are they laying less than a field goal, but we are able to get them at a "Pick 'em," meaning all we need is a straight up win. 10* personal favorite. |
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08-07-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. San Diego Chargers -2.5 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Chargers were a nice success story for head coach Mike McCoy in his first year. They overcame a poor start defensively to make the playoffs and upset Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round. There are high hopes for this season and I think opening the preseason against a Dallas team with several holes will get them started in the right direction. You may recall that San Diego was a mess last year in the preseason. They lost three of four games and in doing so gave up an average of 28 points per game. At home, they were even worse, getting outscored on average by a score of 36 to 8. Injuries were a major problem, particularly with the receivers, at this time last year. I expect McCoy to really want to win his first preseason home game here, especially with it being a National TV game. With Philip Rivers having one year under McCoy's system and the emergence of Keenan Allen in the WR corps, I don't expect any such issues to arise in the Chargers' passing game this preseason. The group is also healthier with Malcolm Floyd back in the fold. Of course, Rivers won't see much time on the field Thursday night. But whomever is under center for the Chargers, I can see them moving the ball against a pourous Dallas defense. As bad as San Diego's defense was at times last season, it wasn't as bad as the Cowboys. No defense gave up more yards than Dallas. Making things even more frightening is that they lost their three best players from that side of the ball this offseason, including Sean Lee to injury. Meanwhile, the Chargers should be better - and deeper - defensively. All the reports I'm hearing say that the team is having a great camp. Whatever limited time Rivers is on the field will be more action than Tony Romo sees for Dallas. It was announced Tuesday that Romo will sit out the preseason opener as he continues to recover from offseason back surgery. The Chargers beat the Cowboys both in the 2012 preseason and the 2013 regular season. Look for them to cover this spread comfortably. 9* main event. |
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08-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. St Louis Rams -6.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. This may be another head-scratcher for some. The lowly Rams laying this many points against the defending SB champs. Once again, it comes down to motivation. The line is indicating that the Rams want the game more. In this case, I believe that is indeed accurate. The Rams hammered the Ravens here almost exactly one year ago to the day. They were leading 21-0 by halftime and ended up winning 31-17. They ran the ball 39 times for 167 yards, dominating the Ravens on the ground. I expect another win and cover. 9* |
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08-29-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Miami Dolphins -6 | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI. If they had a point to prove this preseason, with a 3-0 SU/ATS record, the Saints have already proven it. They have nothing left to gain or prove here, at least in my opinion. On the other hand, the Dolphins are just 1-3 SU/ATS in the preseason and lost their lone home game. They could benefit from a victory and I look for them to be motivated to get one. A closer look shows that the Dolphins had a 312-160 edge in yards in their lone home game. So, it wasn't as if they played poorly. The Dolphins are 13-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS the last 14 times that they were a preseason home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in relatively convincing fashion. 9* |
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08-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +4 v. Arizona Cardinals | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I believe that the 0-2 Chargers have more to prove than the 2-0 Cardinals. I also believe that the Chargers' first stringers are superior to Arizona's, most importantly at the starting QB position. Given that advantage and the fact that they should be AT LEAST as motivated, I feel that this line is generously high. 8*
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08-24-13 | St Louis Rams +7 v. Denver Broncos | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Broncos are a favorite of the betting public while the Rams are not. Throw in the fact that the Rams are already 0-2 SU/ATS in the preseason and many are going to want to back Denver here. That's created a very high line, one which I believe will prove to be too high. The Rams were a far more competitive team than many people remember last year. They're well coached and arguably have more to prove than their hosts. I feel that this line is too high for a preseason game and expect at least a cover. 8*
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08-24-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Perhaps no team could use a win more than the Jaguars. Not only are they off a dismal season and expected to be bad again, but they're also already 0-2 SU/ATS in the preseason, getting embarrassed in the process. Victories are going to be hard to come by and they need to take them any chance they can get. Even in preseason. While Henne isn't expected to be the starter come Week 1, he's been around the league a long time and is capable. While Vick has been named the starter, the last thing the Eagles want to do is to see him get hurt. I expect the Jags to want this one a little more and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. 8*
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