Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 153 h 33 m | Show | |
#151 - Clemson +6.5 to 7 *8 EST January 9, 2017 Revenge is not something to take lightly. Clemson was the better team last year and lost a tight one. Clemson has the best player on the field in QB Watson. His is countered with a true freshman who just lost his mentor when Kiffen was fired. Clemson is the only team in America that can test the Tide defense, and trust me, it is a good one without question. Losing Kiffen is a small hit at OC, but Alabama has time to adjust and his replacement is no stranger to the players, so I am not putting a ton of stock into that. Bottom Line - The ACC all Bowl season for the most part kicked ass and impressed and the SEC was a joke – Alabama had a patsy schedule based on who they played and how those teams fared in bowl games. You have the best player in college football at QB in my opinion, not LaMar Jackson, and that is Watson for Clemson with speed at RB to attack the edges and they have receivers that will test the secondary with success and the Tiger OL can manage the DL of Alabama. A mobile QB with all these weapons’ and a great OL is not something the Tide have seen all year. Yes Clemson was in some tight games this year, but in my opinion they were bored and complacent in many of those simply because they knew they were better, and in big spots they stepped up. They are not intimidated by Alabama, many other teams were. Clemson has the moxie and talent to win this game, and I will gladly the points. Play 1 Unit on Clemson Thanks you for all your College Ball Business this season. I have had better years but finished strong. Thanks – TG |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
#280 - Penn State +7 to 8 * 5 EST This line is jumping up, and after I have watched every bowl game, I have come to the conclusion that 2 conferences were over rated this year big time, the SEC and the PAC 12. The PAC 12 runner up got beat by 30 by Okie State and they have not looked good in any bowl game outside of Stanford playing an average North Carolina team. That said USC was the talk of the town and many broadcasters winning 6 straight with a new QB, Sam Darnold, who is a freshman with tons of promise and upside and no doubt he will play well here, but bottom line USC beat only 2 bowl teams out of the dismal PAC 12 in that 6 game run. Penn State on the other hand won the Big 10 Championship against a good Wisconsin team and managed 38 points in the title game against a great Badger defense, and that tells me QB McSorley and company for PSU can put points up here against a USC defense that is not as good as many Penn State has faced this year. The Lions are an unreal on defense away from home allowing 18 ppg, and they average more points on offense than USC, and quite frankly have the better coach and are playing the no respect card here and feel slighted they were left out of the final 4 as a conference champion and want to prove something. I think RB Barkley makes play action passing for Penn State click, they balance the offense more, and play physical and make this a hell of a game and can stay within the number and possibly win it SU. Play 1 Unit on Penn State BONUS PLAY Half Unit - Oklahoma -2.5 (Again the SEC is overrated outside of Alabama - No doubt OU has the best QB in the game, the best RB in the game, and while OU coach Bob Stoops is hit or miss in big games as a coach, OU has too many weapons on offense for Auburn to trade punches with). |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +3.5 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 25 m | Show | |
#274 - Clemson +3 *7EST Look Ohio State has a better head coach. All that Venables staff (DC for Clemson) has to do is look at the Michigan game tape to see how the Wolverines shut OSU down, and QB Barrett is not a thrower and OSU simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard. Clemson is loaded with speed, well coached, Watson is the best player on the field and while OSU is battle tested, their inexperience finally rears its ugly head here. Clemson has big play capability, and have waited all year, sometimes with complacency to rematch against Bama. OSU is not even a conference champ and if Penn State can beat them, Clemson surely can and will with a fully healthy team including RB Gallman. Play 1 Unit on Clemson |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama -14 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show | |
#272 - Alabama -14 *3 est Dropped from 16, do not think it matters. Alabama has the best defense I have ever seen in CFB and that includes the 1995 Nebraska team. Washington went through a weak PAC 12 conference, struggled against Utah’s defense which is a shell of Alabama’s at best and they struggled against USC who has athletes, but still not of Bama’s caliber. Saban will be all business and while I respect Petersen’s talent as a coach, this is not the upset job he did on Oklahoma at Boise, this is the best team in the land, close to home and loaded at every skill position they have. Bama pulls away late Play 1 Unit on Alabama |
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12-31-16 | LSU -3 v. Louisville | 29-9 | Win | 100 | 67 h 15 m | Show | |
#267 - LSU -3 *11AM EST 3 things at play here. The Heisman curse, SEC team versus a lower tier school, and whenever Louisville came up against anyone outside of Florida State this year who was a good team they lost, including to SEC Kentucky of all people. Louisville does not match up well against physical teams and despite QB Jackson's ability, LSU has too much in the tank and their running game will take it right to the Cards. Remember a fading Houston team destroyed the Cards this season, and RB Guice ran for 8 yards a carry in the SEC! Also remember that LSU was the ONLY team in America this season to make Alabama sweat and with a new head coach who the players love, LSU should roll here with a more physical team and old school smash mouth running right at them. Play 1 Unit on LSU |
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12-30-16 | Nebraska v. Tennessee -4.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 173 h 2 m | Show |
#264 - Tennessee -4 * Dec. 30 at 3:30 EST Nebraska is down their best offensive play making weapon with WR Jordan Westerkamp, and now their best play making defensive player (leading tackler and team co-captain and All an Big 10 DB) in Nate Gerry who has been suspended for this game because of grades. It is also rumored that QB Tommy Armstrong if very iffy, and less than a 20% chance he plays because of a torn hamstring for this game and trust me, Nebraska’s backup could not start for any school in of the Top 5 conferences in the country. Mike Riley is a horrible coach, and frankly any team they faced that was ranked, Nebraska got waxed including a season ending blowout loss to an average Iowa team by 30 points. Ohio State beat Nebraska by 59 points gents. Tennessee is loaded and their speed, coaching, and QB Dobbs will absolutely destroy Nebraska who has no offensive firepower to counter punch what Dobbs and company will do on the scoreboard against a bad defense who cannot defend the read option, dual threat attack Tennessee has. Nebraska’s 3 best players out and 70% of their offense out. Need I say more, and remember I graduated from Nebraska, and am a Husker and follow this program as close as anyone in the business. They are in big trouble here and this could be very embarrassing. Play 3 Units on Tennessee |
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12-29-16 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | 24-35 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
#253 – Arkansas +7 *5:30 EST VT is a common spot, laying a big number after losing a title game. How motivated are they for this, and how do they fare against a big and physical Arkansas Team who will pound the rock. Arkansas off an embarrassing loss to a horrific Missouri team in their season finale, where they dominated an entire half, blew a huge lead and lost. VT has issues giving up big plays and they also have some ugly losses like Syracuse for instance and they are inconsistent. I think this is a rough and tumble, physical and lower scoring game, I will grab the points. Dogs are covering like crazy and this pone here could win outright. Play 1 Unit on Arkansas |
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12-28-16 | Indiana +6 v. Utah | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
#247 - Indiana +5.5 to +6 *830 EST We saw what the Big 10 did last night to one of the PAC 12's elite, and Utah is a PAC 12 team who slide down the ladder in 3 of their last 4 games and got beat by anyone good, and also lost to a horrific Oregon team. Indiana did lose their head coach but worked their ass off to get to a bowl and are excited and motivated to play this game. Every sharp I know in Vegas including some max bets are on Indiana in this game and while we lost a point or point and half on a line drop because of the sharp move, I think Indiana wins this outright. They gave Michigan , Ohio State, Nebraska and Penn State all they wanted this year in case you do not follow the Big 10 like I do. Utah barely beat Oregon State and UCLA this year, and struggled in big games. Play 1 Unit on Indiana |
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12-27-16 | Washington State -9.5 v. Minnesota | 12-17 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
#239 - Washington State -9.5 to 10 * 7 EST Total mis - match on paper and this was going to be a huge play of mine this season at -6, but with suspensions and upheaval at Minny with the players protesting and ect and the line raise, I am singling this out as a 1 Unit Best bet. Line dropped to 9.5 in many places. Look Minny players going through the motions, limited practiced as they protested this bowl at one point, and fragile emotions and egos for the Gopher players and if they get smacked in the mouth early, they do not the QB or the offense to play from behind. Rough and tough Big 10 foe here who did not have 1 big win all year and Leach and his first [pick in the draft at player at QB, who wants to put on as show. Falk at QB is 71% in completion rate and over 4000 yards and one thing about Mike Leach, if he sees a weakness, he exploits it and drops the hammer, and will pile it on and let his start QB rack up he yards. Yeah Minny 23rd in defense in the NCAA, but Big 10 foes are different animal that a pass happy go for broke type offense that is quick paced. Play 1 Unit on Washington State BONUS PLAY: Baylor +7.5 – Believe it or not Baylor running will keep them around here. HALF UNIT |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +6 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
#233 - Vandy +5.5 to 6 *5 EST - Monday 26th Vandy has the better defense and no doubt Tested in battle out of the SEC. Not sold on NC State and one of their wins was a fluke in a hurricane type setting against Notre Dame in their house. The Vandy offense scored 83 points in their last 2 games and have a banging RB in Webb. NC State ended the season with an upset of big brother North Carolina but struggled in ACC play in mid season. They play good teams tough no doubt, but laying 5.5 to 6 with them is risky. Both teams will run the ball, and points will be at a premium here, I will take the better defense and coach in this one. Play 1 Unit on Vandy. |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -3.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 244 h 47 m | Show | |
#226 - Troy -4 *8 EST - Friday December 23 Lost a half point of value here, but still worth a 1 Unit position. The speed of Troy is going to give Ohio U, coached by Frank Solich, some issues big time. Troy is also playing basically in their backyard in this one in Alabama where they are located. Troy gave Clemson earlier this year all they wanted and beat some very good teams. Troys defense ranked 33rd overall in the NCAA and they stuff the run, which Solich likes to do, they rank 22nd in points allowed. More team speed and talent with an offense averaging 426 yards per game against a MAC team who had issues all year with good offenses and speed. Play 1 Unit on Troy |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
#222- ODU -4 * NOTE 1 PM EST Kickoff MAC teams are a bad bet in the bowls. Around 32% since 2012. You saw Central Michigan get waxed against Tulsa already. The MAC simply does not have the firepower to trade punches against high octane teams, and the speed of ODU is big factor here as well. All ODU wins by double digits this year and they are 9-3 on the year, that is impressive and Washington at QB has 28 TD passes and only 4 picks. Simply too much for EMU to contend with. EMU has a good QB in Roback and he can put up some numbers, but ODU is a better team and at least a TD better here. Play 1 Unit on Old Dominion |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming +11 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Wyoming +10 to 11 The Cowboys are a better than advertised team this season, I saw them play Nebraska in person this season and that score was skewed as Wyoming was within 7 points with 10 minutes left before they imploded with turnovers, and they beat SDU by 1 and lost by 3 2 weeks later in the MW Championship game. BYU is without their leader and key playmaker QB Hill, as he is hurt yet once again. While the BYU offense will score against the Cowboy defense, their offense can trade punches on the scoreboard and keep this within the number. Craig Bohl, ex-Nebraska defensive coordinator is a good head coach and the moment will not be too big for his team here. Play 1 Unit on Wyoming |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky -7 | 31-51 | Win | 105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
#216- Western Kentucky -6.5 to 7 *7 EST Not sold on Memphis’s big win against Houston, as we all saw Houston fade down the stretch big time and get waxed in a bowl game. Memphis is in a weak conference and they simply cannot counter punch against Western Kentucky’s offense which is simply a scoring machine. WKU has edges in all key categories’, Offense, Points, Yards gained, yards allowed, and I like their 517 yards per game against a defense that cannot stop anyone allowing over 440 yards a game. Play 1 Unit on Western Kentucky |